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LS Praseesrt Torcosure Soorelary ual 2] Now of woys = 43 X42 x44 — 225 Selig a matihemames. Support Slee a Tae 9) sh echelon —> a 24 echelon => 43% BA iiss As New vo aaleceas ey 2ABLD =. yok Noe ef fossthle plleinaRes = 4 el feasthle allornelfves) =u — 18 FTa => gsi cy ey ae ay eh at Le celle. sed 3 ss a ~ ; 0 and ako acc” to uhelher thery ee ey hsh find tha. of pete a =Oreos — tinsel > ima sip Fe oe rake Som 3 a henbine fem ery ___ bends, Jee el erage Seale ne © f vss = 2aysB xf 2 120 weap “Refuet Menamal, Orly, Rowen, Sem, Sherwel {6 Compact Yee. ool Proncon, Sor Techtes Cy) ae Infurly, Polk (3) Tundable: Cohn, Sen, Tene Techres (4) A suik:h beard — de fy the aloe ales a colone i rok fhe 2 selckne i corn (eondeleg OS sery 1 haa 4! lon. c temperen! be selcated if in te many inp cont orn cporend of anh beea ap ph EAE hy ie be ; : Z Recfoved D Plo ed Sponhen og ° ways = Una 38 e * = 108 sey 5 Bea ‘amo. selcims bo mod * of —# nL vorl tu ts be Pacludedk TD Genel Wea of coaye + Telal ways = Ways thal does ef ' oe oF Ardude any Seay ryo —108 aa—— sma oe on fous tf cecl, = tates pouch PINS ono = ae aa Oe oe Sfoed _the chofce. of dnals ——____ li ah tt pe Jax leXio. cic oS 2 lecce umyt | pte sgpesenalon ole’. —Ieallae of Chase Bank, thee aw reclafchins. oi ee ane. pale a tae then Hes asc oof \ tefertertaey ier F et as ae s ulh 3 Se 22? “ene, te the of Hm a, 3s amd oo a a PIN (tal 25 net = of the Bh Hs i: DOLCECa ee *,—__ ay shaaktag wth 19 te, of ways = IAI AIOALO = loo ere er os degthnele Prt une = Telal = ( tlemitcal + asc s dese + staal = loooo — (to +7074 loo) 2 BTS ways ——PLaglnch ems = A076 + Segtide ON ets \oo0o Telal No. afa) sk Tr. a bored fa rer of wm seuys__wa._faun—_ »__sel et rl [a eth ole Leg sonling eppsto lewd] a _ Al ap i a ° al Cy nar telat oo, of alge cls am of clgede ackeled i: puiten GS Te J ey ees cherfte tock wl be opened of ated 1 emlen oo. 1,8 and & bul go Jf \ squore Set _< 40,1,2,....9 n= to 423 —— Bis. a Sire oR: te tol \e-3) ie fo em ee y——_==$==— eee 2 mall ie, vals) $< 2 General _aale —______ ———$__—_—_—_—_. ms Penmuted ann Rule 2 me set ah 25 dated | specfal case of mulliplinte swe = spectal ole, ef obvfo s cnultp lode Rule ae 7 = Beh ena en walRo_ov Rermenelen lena exc. ipods = all. _ soos O01 OE “odlually exch Set ee —ert- — TE Tally lela) oon of cverls f fvourable ousdeemas : > ample ewnls_% sample apace Courling Teel oT tells col tho _nee of eulcornes TT lege sues to samaple apes Mala 1 qe wale, Bolte Ble —? annclector ae Pall Rule, = lombfnechem 4 1. 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Sarge cmp). = 3. 2003 >= Od ka 4 jo _X9) doen > we dev} hong oftlenca | ec the clot Nanreree oie BRach Se MS See eeTom dal tow bya va aged ad eo => wo febd be nefet the cbf (ua del soy? Hal ue ancpld 2b) Raves” ure => mes: Neasen fon __ 0 jhe Decay, Plumber, Elecbaibino, === sree ge bb tem aly tf we ove fo trouble. col Hag slams esl tel wan for td bab Si seme, aor ahisacly ocous | defect has poe tae te food i eLe\p)-2 & if Nore ana mona hen 4 wea of sonal whl mdule we should ae, Jeb 3 mmedules by VGN =? msl he ello) > oS Plwalo) = 4 : season fi efodule > Ley mone chances that sein fh Ma so glank Bin. Ma, Se te oe@ he Nal of cedules should be ahah = dheuld hewe compel thfomalfen best the s4shem my [oe S net kenawsn => 3 not ethaustre MU Ms U.------ UM = System S—= @ Pebabrtty of working ef eagle meddle shoudl be Known, et “aS NF My hd a P(m Ip) = 2 Pim Io) 2 Pm oo) Po) D = Minds yl oo}ul OD) o( Mund), e all rudually exclusre > Plo) =P mop), P(Ms ap’ 1P(M son) 4 Pla, op) Os__PlMind) = PLDIM) x Play Pla. st A = Pe Pol.) + Pinay Pte + Ploah Plo) Plea). PLD | Mmaye ae Kon. -t}—bewmes ro das bee thse (Mat tad) — Pil) = Plm\p) = 993 Pirlo) = or Plmalpy =. oet wz we Jediy Gin mol Waly mee fo Defic cow i mest Moby eas => Ms af ah a winking wll, tom vs. g2 fo led aly | tease, arn so 2.be 2 jes le. bn Bowes’ cule a fons aa ee fel rail a y Sede mewn ut have Lo find Jegllle. aosery_prteatis Baye? Rule Qual neeqaflin word =) move ely a> Bayes” Bale A Erramp Le fin assembler of compules ctoudens =— = Skp_4 _Defna _Nentabfes = 4 Compan 0 sepplis pat 8 — 4 bmpcmy supplies pool Ly yep Be det hee Gis Dale Pla) 2 oe P(A) eo Plojay = oe P (ofA) = o%03 soupy move Palsy B Plaloy = 2 7 defer polsAOD) & (Bor FE Pleo) + elenp) Bameh Bae ia a = Pla). Ploin) + P(6). P(nis) {3 Poiey = pep) 3__Ploia\_ - P| | z__d004o 4 0.006 aod 2 cout o Plalo) = Plann) = le). PU ota) ql PW) Ploy > = OeB xX Sect = 6504 f Geol een * elaip) = eleoo) = _ PP). lpia) r Co Pe) F OrL ACS = Croat . e e084 ono fs e(ele) > Flaie) f => Comper 0 2s mere theby Je deliver I defective peaks L "Wes To Trarcamefas 15 drug telBg = Yap es U — {sers of the drug sh O — A Non-users| py dat atvel t — Fi {kek —Ret = J. {al EA LT v)_ = Jeo eo! os = = Bhedthood C(T) = 40 = er \ “Teese felt) =. & i : cS 3 erp eelw) 2 4 2 ea) 4oc ge P(e |p) se elute) = Plooe PoP) P = \pov)u (env) eip) = eleov\s e(rod) = Pid).Plolo) + e(0).e lela) SO-An OF $009 Rosh = Oso 4 0009 = Seed e.0s4 Pluie) = P(vor) = Plo). Pirlo) Ae) ee) p. eefinos © Ot cease 2 CK so Pagee - oeety = = S.8aqy oS ee ee ee eefsb oe Es fe 2 ee Sn {Sof 0 f= = 7 Buwn Sd _— 4 syst. S sbub down) ene Cin) > ores Pisw)= vor PLP)» sen. Clsplaw)s 663 P(splsw)+ eria Plspje)s ose Te fod = P( eqn Iso) = 2 P(swisp)s > P (el spy=? Psd) _= elumaso)s Pls asp) sy Peaso) = Plt). P(soltin) + Pls). Plso] sia) + OCP). Piso |p) = Sool xoeTd t OS Aoola 4 S*E2 AOWBE = _ercel® 4 be ect 20116 = _% +6304 Pliiso) = P(wnnsp) = PlHn) PCa Jt)» 22073 P(S) P(s0) ©2038] C(swlop) 2 Piswosp) - Plow). Plsp|si) serene (sD) Pen) 260305, Ple|sn) = Peasp) = rte). P( sole) a 820 76 (sD) P(SD) B08 30)oe i Decor s , Seaheats el em rt tipi oc Ris) reed PW 20-3 el S8ip) = 63 C\ss\s) = -f4 PUssiT) = oS tt 3s wl Hel dbo. 0ls3) = essen) _+ 0(5308) elsent) Seed a IE EL A tain,ee gg enTs) _ PhO. eso) «on poe ¥ Gs) ae / Puss) may |e reaae ' riss)>_ PU toss) eer) eishy - ens Posy PGs 2039 Je _avealest pos values cores Nee Sy of D amd T zp mare Hoty deslialin 5s Dee and Tell => Ve smallest hes highesl probablyNy An assembler of computer routers and modems uses parts from two sources. Company A "2 supplies 80% of the parts and Company B supplies remaining 20% of the parts. From the past experience, the assembler knows that 5% of the parts supplied by Company A are defective and 3% of the parts supplied by Company B are defective. An assembled modem selected at random is found to have defective part. Which of the two Companies is more likely to have supplied the defective part? |Due to inaccuracies in drug testing procedures (e.g. false positive and false negative), in the medical field the results of a drug test represent only one factor in a physician's diagnosis. Yet when Olympic are tested for illegal drug use (i.e. doping), the result of a single test are used to ban the athlete from competition. In Chance (Spring 2004), University of Texas biostatistician D. A. Berry and L. Chastain demonstrated the application of Bayes’ Rule for making inferences about testosterone abuse among Olympic athletes. They used the following example. In 2 population of 1000 athletes, suppose 100 are illegally using testosterone. Of the user, suppose 50 would test positive for testosterone. Of the non-users, suppose 9 would test positive. a. Given the athlete is a user, find the probability that a drug test for testosterone will yield positive result. This probability represents the sensitivity of the drug test). b. Given the athlete is a non-user, find the probability that a drug test for testosterone will yield positive result. This probability represents the specificity of the drug test). c. If anathlete test positive for testosterone, use Bayes’ Rule to find the probability that the athlete is really doping. (This probability represents the positive pre-dictive value of the drug).The local area network (LAN) for the College of Business Computing system at a large university is temporarily shut down for repairs. Previous shut downs have been due to hardware failure, software failures, or power failure. Maintenance engineers have determined that the probabilities of hardware, software, and power failures are 0.01, 0.05, and 0.02, respectively. They also have determined that if the system experiences hardware problems, it shuts down 73% of the time. Similarly, if software problems occur, the system shuts down 12% of the times and if power failure occurs, the system shuts down 88% of the times. What is the probability that the current shut down of the LAN is due hardware failure? Software failure? Power failure?5 / SEB BEERS eee eee 3.49 Electric wheelchair control. Electric wheelchairs are diffi- cull to maneuver for many disabled people. In a paper pre- sented at the /st International Workshop on Advances in Service Robotics (March, 2003), researchers applied Bayes’ Rule to evaluate an “intelligent” robotic controller that aims to capture the intent of a wheelchair user and aid in navigation. Consider the following scenario. From a certain location in a room, a wheelchair user will either (1) turn sharply to the left and navigate through a door, (2) proceed straight to the other side of the room, or ( 3) turn slightly right and stop at a table. Denote these three events as D (for door), S (Straight), and T (for table). Based on previous trips, P(D) = .5, P(S) = .2, and P(T) = 3. The e6h, ooh oo s wheelehatir ic inctallad «a:el Pa andiGGAGS). Based on previous trips P(S) = .2, and P(T) = .3. The wheelchair is installed with a robot-controlled joystick. When the user intends to go through the door, he points the joystick straight 30% of the time; when the user in- tends to go straight, he points the joystick straight 40% of the time; and, when the user intends to go to the table, he points the joystick straight 5% of the time. If the wheel- chair user points the joystick straight, where is his most likely destination? i | oaJoma i tate L, Physi al, chil a Lp omy a ‘ Stacraba yantabler L pssst Ly _Coumnra poloms ae valed tle AP fenend Jesh mh mc hanastorteles Ly Bech te has th ‘hak amd_absfliling vol thle farmsla, , we con find tos = Brcle value, Hie dol eh bo Mile lbebely bacd ocd. _prablen NallyFerre Hons z fie 1 Fl furelens uelon bu! 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VW tee 9 x Ys YB wy 7 2eukomor Ad, ah dius s Pw) 2 S/9 > P(e) = 4/4 del doawse ball & hele at _gyaw tlds Yo 4 Pla) = ¥f Aart drown ball 3s es 2 Pla) » 2a wilh apes a 5, Sep => Binomial 3 Sonpllcj—utlheul nore hg = Nef a Binoy cot © nos, WHHL, = = arrrryt Ally 20s) 27 2 few cukomes Total 4k oP oudeome Success S$ =~ Headls P(H) = p 4 pt) =A. plunties) = PDP). PUH). e(r). Pr) 2 x PA wectly 2H 7 Sey x s-3 = SC3 KpPa ee Os ee Ply) vey aad eG oc Vota fi otal) eee & alowed values of $202 del _o2S 4 gee Ply\ 27 Hy) => oal_peasle bez) abasal: val of of 2 82, 3,40 Epecled Value Sn casa of caf v, Rs p23 p= Pluroy cas pry oe ELV + roe 2 ¥ VEY 2 © to kon wae —<—== eSPl yet) = Plo) pus PJs 4 PL) 2 [6 \ ors} foncf (ses (oy o 25. {SV lod"tosyt x 7 7 eee ee 7 Vo prot [ key S by Pl yes) €. Ply) Ely Z ‘ pope 4 4 ely) + eet a re rs aa J 7S ely) 7 7 FF a elyesi= j= on 0SAt ee = 040%x 7 Pye £, Ply} = ft ee oodou - 0 2002 20-1964 =} Vis Yor « who feel programm fnosoase Mle teres Ope A Bivmial Remlorm Verte Pr, .n3 06 rv es nh _Doudcomes 4% pe ooo, > ems. qley ene ely} = op 2 sox o.01 = 604 : 2 aatxe.13__= NV UY] +, apg 2 20 nen atixend 1c Cast than hale gol feed) thed sce aoreoct thes tr Py ea) . 2 tly) = 09820a flo) eps. : Plo) op. £ (9) = a Poi Py ¢ --- 4p = oO Ye =H of 0, Ye 2 # of On , dil dal catitad wa Mullfromtel Feb 7”. mo atag le dora Po Prob of outcome i ei : onl o a ‘i ak a £_ fr ohiel of ccmnorne pe elTn & —_4 P(s)=006 & P(R) =O01 {T P(L) = Or3, aoe £ T . - eas 50 —_cauts sated os the rob that Cut dake Soh lust 12 90 strats bt 3 fll Jobe aight ln m2 tefl fuan ™ Dovey 2 > SP bon 4 test ead re. ee ee hing lange > * Vins AMA dunn she) ee gehg_Shaaight fly Oe ess PIR). 2 es) % + a es ee SS ee eo ee eeLo ~ SS tee 2 es 8 Ye 5) pepe on aa SS ie 7 ol hy v 1 = tet a : t4tel asl 4, ¥ 42 = oi 5 - Ost) K (00s), a BL ost mi 2:3) x fone eee es ee cb thal all cans fll 5, slush Ple,c, ac) = 201 = ° = eet) A [o03)" x (on6 Igo uy of ol Re] ne cat as® & and “8 What fa the pveb Shab all cvs sth ge the heme dfvec\Ern . 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