Probability and Statistics 12/3/2021

CHAPTER FIVE
ELEMENTARY
PROBABLITY

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Introduction
 Probability theory is a part of our everyday life. We may hear
a doctor say that a patient has a 50-50 chance of survival or a
meteorologist predict heavy rain with 80% chance.
 Probability theory is concerned with the study of random (or
chance) phenomena. Such phenomena are characterized by
the fact that their future behavior is not predictable in a
deterministic fashion.
 Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance
of an event occurring.
 Many people are familiar with probability from observing or
playing games of chance, such as card games, lotteries.
 In addition to being used in games of chance, probability
theory is used in the fields of insurance, investments, and
weather forecasting and in various other areas.
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Probability and Statistics 12/3/2021

Cont…
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood of
an occurrence of event.
It is a measure of the degree of uncertainty associated
with random events.
The element of chance plays a vital role in our life.
Many important business decisions are made on this
basis.
 The entire business of insurance and share market is
based on probability theory.
Quality control, reliability theory, queuing theory,
system failure, radar detection, noise, birth and death
rates and games of chance are some other fields where
probability finds application.
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Definition of basic terms of probability

 Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement
which generates well defined outcome. An experiment is
any activity from which results are obtained.
e.g. Tossing a coin, rolling a single die or a pair of dice,
applying for a job, Federal election, drilling an oil well
 Random experiment: it is an experiment which can be
repeated any number of times under the same conditions,
but does not give unique results.
-The result will be any one of several possible outcomes,
but for each trial, the result will not be known in advance.
Example: Tossing a coin, rolling a die, etc.
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Sample space (S): - is the collection of all possible

outcomes or sample points of a random
experiment.
Sample point: -Each element of sample space is
called Sample point.
Example:
1. If we toss a fair coin once then the possible
outcomes are 𝑆 = 𝐻, 𝑇 , H= Head & T= Tail
2. If a balanced die rolled once then the possible
outcomes are 𝑆 = 1, 2,3,4,5,6 .
3. If we toss a fair coin twice then the possible
outcomes are 𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇
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Event: - is a subset of the sample space i.e. an event is

a collection of sample points. It is a Collections of
outcomes from the sample space
Example: If a balanced die rolled once then
i) the occurrence of even numbers 𝐴 = 2,4,6
ii) the occurrence of odd numbers B= 1,3,5
Impossible event:- is an event which will never
occur.
Mutually exclusive event: - Two events that have no
outcome in common are called mutually exclusive
events.
- Two events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive if there is no sample point which is common to
A and B. i.e. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅
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Independent events: two or more events are said

to be independent if the occurrence or non-
occurrence of an event does not affect the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if
the first event affects the outcome or occurrence
of the second event in a way the probability is
changed.
Equally likely outcomes: if each outcome in a
sample space has the same chance to be occurred.
e.g. 𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇 , 𝑆 = 1, 2,3,4,5,6

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Counting Rules (Principles)

In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
• The number of elements of an event
• The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to
know what is possible.
In order to determine the number of outcomes, one
can use several rules of counting.
1. The addition rule
2. The multiplication rule
3. Permutation rule
4. Combination rule Compiled by: Bacha E. , ASTU

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The addition rule

Suppose that a procedure, designated by 1, can be
done in n1 ways. Assume that a second procedure
designated by 2, can be done in n 2 ways.
Suppose furthermore, that it is not possible that both
1 and 2 done together.
Then, the number of ways in which we can do1 or 2
is 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 ways.
Example: suppose we are planning a trip to some
place. If there are 3 bus routes & two Minibus routes
that we can take, then there are 3+2=5 different routes
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Multiplication rule
 If an operation consists of k steps and the 1st step can be
done in n1 ways, the 2nd step can be done in n2 ways
(regardless of how the 1st step was performed), the kth step
can be done in nk ways, (regardless of how the preceding
steps were performed), then the entire operation can be
performed in n1 · n2 ·… · nk ways.
Example: Suppose that a person has 2 different pairs of
trousers and 3 shirts. In how many ways can he wear his
trousers and shirts?
Solution: He can choose the trousers 𝑛1 = 2 ways, and
shirts in 𝑛2 = 3 ways.
𝑛1 × 𝑛2 = 2 × 3 = 6 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Therefore, he can wear in 6 possible ways.
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Permutation
An arrangement of objects with attention given to
order of arrangement is called permutation.
1. The number of permutation of n different objects
taken r at a time is obtained by:
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑃𝑟𝑛 = , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
2. The number of permutations of n objects taken all
together is 𝑛! . That is
𝑛! 𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = = = 𝑛! (By definition 0! = 1)
(𝑛−𝑛)! 0!
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3. The number of distinct permutation of n objects in which

n1 are alike, n2 are alike, ..., nk are alike is
𝒏!
, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑛 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 +…+𝑛𝑘
𝒏𝟏 !𝒏𝟐 !…𝒏𝒌 !
Examples
1. In how many ways we can arrange the letters A, B, C &
D by taking two letters at a time?
Solution: n = 4 , r = 2
4! 4! 4×3×2×1
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 4𝑃2 = (4−2)! = 2! = = 12 possible ways.
2×1
That is, AB, AC, AD, BA, BC, BD, CA, CB, CD, DA, DB,
DC.
2. In how many ways we can arrange the letters A, B, C & D
by taking four letters at a time? 4! = 24.
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3. How many distinct permutations of letters in

word “book”?
Solution: n1=1, n2=2, n3 = 1, n = 4
𝒏! 𝟒! 𝟒×𝟑×𝟐×𝟏
= = = 𝟏𝟐
𝒏𝟏 !𝒏𝟐 !𝒏𝟑 ! 𝟏!𝟐!𝟏! 𝟐×𝟏
4. A photographer wants to arrange 3 persons in a row for
photograph. How many different types of photographs are
possible?
Solution:
Assume 3 persons Aster (A), Chala (C), Yared (Y) and n=3
Since 𝑛! = 3! = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6, there are 6 possible
arrangement ACY, AYC, CAY, CYA,YCA and YAC.

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Combination
 A selection of objects considered without regard to order
in which they occur is called Combination.
 The number of combination of n different objects taking r
of them at a time is
𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
Examples
1. In how many ways we can select the letters A, B, C & D
by taking two letters at a time?
Solution: n = 4 , r = 2
4! 4! 4×3×2!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 4𝐶2 = 2! 4−2 ! = 2!2! = 2!×2×1 = 𝟔 possible ways
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2. In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is to

be formed. In how many ways can the committee be formed?
Solution: n = 7, r = 3
7! 7! 7 × 6 × 5 × 4!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 7𝐶3 = = = =7×5
3! 7 − 3 ! 3! 4! 3 × 2 × 1 × 4!
= 𝟑𝟓
3. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out
of 9 people? Exercise
4. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives. In how many
ways can an inspector chose three of the clocks for
inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clocks is included.
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Solution: n = 15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are

non-defective. r = 3
a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from
15 clocks and this can be done in:
15!
15𝐶3 = = 455 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
3! 15−3 !
b) None of the defective clocks is included.
This is equivalent to zero defective and three non
defective, which can be done in:
2 13
× = 286 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
0 3

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c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to one defective and two non
defective, which can be done in:
2 13
× =156 ways
1 2

d) Two of the defective clock is included. This is

equivalent to two defective and one non
defective, which can be done in:
2 13
× = 13 ways
2 1
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Definition of probability
Definition 1: Probability is a chance (likelihood) of
occurrence of an event.
It is expressed by a numerical value between 0 and
1 inclusively.
Probability is a building block of inferential
statistics.
Definition 2: Let ∈ be an experiment. Let S be a
sample space associated with ∈. With each event A in
S we associate a real number designated by P (A) and
called the probability of A.
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Generally probability can be divided into two

i) Subjective probability: - the probability
determined based on individual’s own judgment,
experience, information, belief , etc.
ii) Objective probability: - the probability of an
event in a certain experiment based on
experimental evidence.
Basic approaches to probability
There are three different conceptual approaches to
the study of probability theory.
1. The classical approach.
2. The frequentist approach.
3. The axiomatic approach.
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1. Classical approach
This is based on the assumptions that the outcomes
of an experiment are equally likely and the total
number of the outcomes is definite.
Definition: If there are n equally likely outcomes of
an experiment, and out of the n outcomes event A
occur only k times the probability of the event A is
denoted by P (A) is defined as
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 𝑛 𝐴 𝑘
p(A) = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛

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Example: A fair die is tossed once. What is the

probability of getting.
a) Number 4? b) An odd number?
c) An even number? d) Number 8?
Solution:
First identify the sample space, say S
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, n(S) = 6
a) Let A be the event of number 4, n(A) = 1
𝑃 A = 𝑛(𝐴) 1
= .
𝑛(𝑆) 6
b) Let A be the event of odd numbers
𝐴 = 1,3,5 , n(A) = 3
𝑃 A = 𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
= = = 0.5
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2
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c) Let B be the event of even numbers

B= {2, 4, 6}, n (B) =3
𝑃 B = 𝑛(𝐵) 3 1
= = = 0.5
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2
d) Let C be the event of numbers 8
C= ∅, n (C) =0 and 𝑃 C = 𝑛(𝐶) 0
= =0
𝑛(𝑆) 6

2. The Frequentist Approach (Empirical Probability)

This approach to probability is based on relative
frequencies.
Definition: suppose we repeat a certain experiment n
times and let A be an event of the experiment and let
𝑓𝑘 be the number of times that event A occurs.
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number of times event A has occurred 𝑓𝑘

𝑃 𝐴 = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛
Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs
produced are defective. What is the probability of a newly
produced bulb to be defective?
Solution: n = 100,000, 𝑓𝐴 = 60
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
𝑓𝐴 60
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.0006
𝑛 100,000
Exercise: The national center for health statistics reported that
of every 539 deaths in recent years, 24 resulted that from
automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other
disease. What is the probability that particular death is due to
an automobile accident?
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3. The axiomatic approach.

 Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space
associated with E. With each event A a real number called the
probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms
of probability or postulates of probability.
1. P (A) ≥ 0
2. P(S) =1, S is the sure/certain event.
3. 0≤ P (A) ≤ 1
4. If A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events, the probability that
one or the other occur equals the sum of the two probabilities. i. e.
𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2) = P(A1)+P(A2)
Similarly P(A1∪A2∪ . . . ∪An) = P(A1)+P(A2) +. . . +P(An)
= 𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )
5. P (A') =1-P (A)
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6. P (ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.

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Note: let A and B are events of a sample space S, then

1. P (A' ∩ B) = P (B) - P (A ∩ B)
2. P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
3. P(B) =P (A∩ B) +P (A' ∩ B)
4. P(A) =P (A∩ B) +P (A ∩ B ')
5. P (A ∩ B ') = P(A) - P (A∩ B)
6. If 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 𝑃(𝐵)

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Conditional Probability
Suppose that A and B are events.
Conditional probability of A given B means the
probability of occurrence of A when the event B
has already happened.
It is denoted by P (A/B) and is defined by
𝑃 (𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐵), if P (B)≠0
Conditional probability of B given A means the
probability of occurrence of B when the event A
has already happened. It is denoted by P (B/A) and
is defined
𝑃 (𝐵/𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑃 (𝐴), if P (A)≠0
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 It follows that
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 (𝐴/𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)
= 𝑃 𝐵/𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐴
Example: If the probability that a research project will be
well planned is 0.60 and the probability that it will be well
planned and well executed is 0.54, what is the probability
that it will be well executed given that it is well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be
well Planned
B= the event that a research project will be well Executed
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.60, 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.54, 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)=?
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 0.54
𝑃 𝐵/𝐴 = = = 0.9
𝑃(𝐴) 0.60
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Probability of Independent Event

Two events A and B are independent if and only if
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Example: Suppose that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.2,
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.08, P(C) = 0.5, P(D) = 0.3,
𝑃 𝐶 ∩ 𝐷 = 0.10
i) Are A and B Independent events?
ii) Are C and D Independent events?
Solution:
i) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
⇒ 0.08 = 0.4 × 0.2
⇒ 0.08 = 0.08
Therefore, A & B are independent events
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Note: Suppose A and B are independent events with

0<P (A) <1 and 0<P (B) <1. The following
statements true:
i. A' and B' are independent,
ii. A and B' are independent,
iii. A' and B are independent
iv. P(B/A) = P(B),
v. P(B/A') = P(B)

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