The Effect of Dividend Policy On Stock Price: Evidence From The Indian Market
The Effect of Dividend Policy On Stock Price: Evidence From The Indian Market
Abstract
One of the most debated issue in the field of corporate finance is the relationship between dividend policy and market price of share.
There is good amount of literature for and against this issue. The present study has been undertaken to evaluate the effect of dividend
policy on market prices of shares of Nifty 50 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) for 2008–2017. The data have
been analysed by employing multiple panel data regression models namely pooled regression, fixed effect model and random effect
model. The Hausman test has been used to suggest the most appropriate regression model. The result of the Hausman test indicates
that random effect model is more relevant in describing the relationship among the given variables. The results of the random effect
regression model support the relevant approaches of dividend policy. Thus, we conclude that there is significant effect of dividend
policy on the stock price of firms.
Keywords
Dividend, regression, stock price, value of the firm, Nifty
Corresponding author:
Narinder Pal Singh, Jagan Institute of Management Studies, 3, Institutional Area, Sector 5, Rohini, Delhi 110085, India.
E-mail: [email protected]
8 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 15(1–2)
Theoretical Framework the value of a firm. His proposition clearly states the
relationship between the firms’ (a) internal rate of return
Though there are several theories on dividend policy such as (i.e., r) and (b) its cost of capital or the required rate of return
the Modigliani and Miller (MM) theory, Walters’s model (i.e., k). In other words, an optimum dividend policy will
and Gordon’s model of dividend policy for the purpose of
have to be determined by the relationship between r and k. In
this study, Gordon’s dividend model has been adopted. This
short, a firm should retain its earnings if the return on
is premised on the uniqueness of its share price valuation
investment exceeds the cost of capital and in the opposite
method which is based on future streams of dividends.
case, it should distribute its earnings to the shareholders.
Miller and Modigliani (1961) proposed the dividend
Gordon’s (1963) theory on dividend policy is one of the
irrelevance hypothesis that provides the concept of divi-
theories which believes in the ‘relevance of dividends’
dends in a comprehensive manner. According to them, the
concept. Gordon supports Kirshman’s ‘bird-in-the-hand’
dividend policy of a firm is irrelevant since it does not have
any effect on the price of shares of a firm, that is, it does not argument that states the myopic vision of investors. In other
affect the shareholders’ wealth. They expressed that the words, the current dividends are important in determining
value of the firm is determined by the earning power of the the value of the firm. Gordon’s model is one of the most
firms’ assets or its investment policy and not dividend deci- popular mathematical models used to calculate the market
sions by splitting the earnings of retentions and dividends. value of the company using its dividend policy. Though this
They argued that it is either information effect, clientele theory has been duly criticised on the strength of the stated
effect or signalling effect by which dividend payments assumptions, it has been found to be the most reliable model
affect the value of the firm. Bhattacharya (1979), Miller for the valuation of the market value of a company.
and Rock (1985) and Williams (1988) tell us that a rising Therefore, the study intends to investigate the impact of
dividend conveys good news. dividend policy on the market performance of the share
The conclusion derived by MM is logically consistent price at the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is, therefore,
and intuitively appealing. But the underlying assumptions of on this premise that this study examines the effect of earnings
the MM hypothesis such as perfect capital markets, no taxes, per share (EPS), DY, dividend per share (DPS), return on
investment policy and no risks are found to be unrealistic equity (ROE), profits after tax (PAT) and retention ratio
and impractical in the real world. For instance, under perfect (RR) in determining the market price of shares (MPSs).
market assumption, there are no transactions and flotation
cost. This implies that internal and external financing are
equivalent. So, whether the firm retains earnings or issues Review of Literature
new shares, the wealth of shareholders would remain the There has been an extensive debate on dividend policy and
same. However, in practice, it is the flotation or transaction its effects on the value of a firm. Since the middle of the
cost that makes internal financing cheaper than external last century, many studies have been conducted to examine
financing. Similarly, opposite to the assumption of the MM the impact of dividend policy on the market price of stocks.
hypothesis, taxes exist in practice. In most of the countries, Some researchers have argued that regular payment of
capital gain is taxed at a lower rate as compared to dividends. dividends to investors significantly increases the market
In such a tax scenario, investors in high tax brackets should value of shares (Gordon, 1963). On the other hand, while
prefer low-payout shares while those in the low tax bracket some others have debated on the irrelevance of dividends
should prefer high-payout shares. India is an exception (Miller & Scholes, 1978), others have opined that payment
where dividends are not taxed but capital gains are. Thus, of dividends leads to the reduction in shareholders’ wealth.
this study does not empirically test the MM hypothesis. A brief review of literature is presented in Table 1.
Another aspect of dividend payment was highlighted Though many research studies have been undertaken
by Jensen and Meckling (1976). He relates dividend pay-
in the field of dividend policy and market price, a few
ment with agency costs and problems. They argue that
studies explain the effect of dividend policy on the MPSs.
firms pay out dividends in order to reduce agency costs.
Therefore, to fill this research gap and contribute to the
A firm with free cash flows prefers to distribute dividends
literature, the present study attempts to analyse the effect
to its shareholders so as to reduce the possibility of these
of dividend policy on MPSs with special reference to
funds being wasted on unprofitable projects (Jensen, 1986).
selected companies in India.
Thus, this approach emphasises on the important role of
dividend policy to resolve agency problems and enhance
shareholder value. Research Methodology
The Walter (1963) model suggests that dividend policy
and investment policy of a firm cannot be isolated; rather, In this section, we discuss the data, the variables and the
they are interlinked. As such, the choice of the former affects research tools and techniques applied in this study.
Singh and Tandon 9
(Table 1 continued)
Data and Research
Year Author Objectives Methodology Findings
2014 Nirmala, To examine the long-run Panel co-integration There exists bi-directional long-run
Sanju, and causal relations between and panel vector error causality between share price and
Ramachandran share price and dividends in correction model dividends. Share price and dividend thus
the Indian market. influence each other.
2014 Movalia and To know the impact of Regression analysis There is an impact of profitability, leverage,
Vekariya profitability, leverage, growth rate and rate of return on dividend
growth rate, rate of return payout on DPS of the companies listed on
and dividend payout on S&P BSE SENSEX.
dividend policy.
2015 Kaźmierska- To examine whether some Panel data analysis (fixed The results show statistically significant and
Jóźwiak factors such as profitability, effect and random effect negative relationships between DPR and
liquidity, size and leverage model) and Hausman test two analysed factors: profitability (ROE)
of the firm affect dividend and leverage (LEV).
payout decisions of Polish-
listed companies.
2015 Roy To investigate the Correlation and regression The results do not support the insider
relationship between analysis ownership, and the alignment between
ownership and dividend different classes of owners is an important
policy and find out the factor which influences the dividend policy.
impact of debt and the
firm’s characteristics on the
dividend policy.
2016 Harshapriya To analyse the relationship Hypothesis testing, There is no relationship between DY and
among DY, dividend payout regression analysis price volatility.
and price volatility.
2017 Sattar et al. To investigate the Logarithmic regression There is a significant negative impact of the
relationship between analysis dividend POR on the next year earnings
dividend POR and of a firm.
profitability of a firm.
2017 Anwar, Singh, To analyse the impact of Hypotheses and paired The cash dividend announcements have
and Jain the announcement of cash sample t-test positive AARs of the select manufacturing
dividends on stock price companies. Overall, the results lend
returns. support to the signalling and informational
content hypotheses of dividends.
2017 Farrukh, Irshad, To explore the relationship Hypothesis testing, The dividend policy is positively associated
Khakwani, of dividend policy with share Regression analysis with EPS and share price. Moreover,
Ishaque, and market price; EPS; and firm dividend policy is also significantly
Ansari performance. positively linked with ROE.
2017 Jitmaneeroj To examine the conditional Fixed effects model When the ROE is greater (less) than the
and nonlinear relationship required rate of return, the P/E ratio and
between price-earnings dividend POR exhibit a negative (positive)
(P/E) ratio and POR. relationship and positive (negative)
convexity.
2017 Adesina et al. To study dividend policy and Ordinary least square There is a positive relationship between
share price valuation (OLS) statistical tool EPS and MPS, but on the other hand, DY
in Nigerian banks. and RRs have a negative influence on the
MPS.
2018 Felimban, Floros, To examine the effect of They report some evidence for the stock
and Nguyen dividend announcement price reaction that partially supports
on share price and the signalling hypothesis. Also, the Gulf
trading volume. Cooperation Council (GCC) market is
informationally inefficient.
Source: The authors.
Singh and Tandon 11
Several methods are used to test the static models— which is found to be negatively correlated. Also, EPS shows
pooled OLS, fixed effects (FEs) and random effects (REs). a high positive correlation while DPS shows a moderate
The pooled OLS method is a form of mathematical regres- positive correlation with MPS. DPS is highly positively
sion analysis that finds the line of best fit for a dataset, correlated with EPS and RR is negatively correlated with
providing a visual demonstration of the relationship EPS. DY and ROE are positively correlated with DPS.
between data points. Fixed effect models explore the
relationships between independent variables and explained
variables in separate entities, assuming that companies Unit Root Test
have their own characteristics that influence the relation-
It is necessary that all the given variables are stationary
ships between variables. Here, the intercept is assumed to
before running regression analysis. To test it analytically,
vary across cross-sections but has a fixed value for a cross-
we employ LLC; Breitung t-stat; IPS W-stat; ADF; and
section (which does not change with time). Random effect
Fisher chi-square tests. It is evident from Table 4 that the
models imply a random variation across companies, uncor-
null hypothesis of unit root (non-stationarity) is rejected in
related with explanatory variables. Here, the intercept is
case of most of these tests at the 5 per cent level of
assumed to be random. The Hausman test will reveal the
significance. However, there are conflicts among the
better model from the latter two and therefore it is used for
results of different tests. So, we infer on the basis of
the appropriate selection of panel regression. The null
majority of results. Thus, we infer that all the given series,
hypothesis states that the RE model is appropriate while
namely DY, MPS, EPS, DPS, RR, ROE and PAT, are
the alternate hypothesis states that the FE model is more
stationary at the 5 per cent level of significance.
appropriate.
P-value
Variable LLC Breitung IPS ADF PP Inference
MPS 0.00 1.00 0.70 0.01 0.00 Stationary
EPS 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.08 0.04 Stationary
DPS 0.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.01 Stationary
DY 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stationary
RR 0.00 1.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 Stationary
ROE 0.00 0.93 0.03 0.00 0.00 Stationary
PAT 0.03 0.38 0.05 0.04 0.30 Stationary
Source: The authors.
Notes: LLC: Levin, Lin and Chu; Breitung: Breitung t-stat; IPS: Im, Pesaran and ShinW-stat; ADF: Augmented Dickey–
Fuller; and PP: Fisher chi-square.
MPS—Dependent Variable
Coefficient—Beta (Prob.)
Independent Variable OLS FE RE
EPS 32.48# (0.00) 31.22# (0.00) 31.62# (0.00)
DPS 5.38 (0.31) 3.06 (0.66) 4.76 (0.42)
DY −171.01# (0.00) −169.53# (0.00) −173.36# (0.00)
RR −0.15(0.79) −0.04 (0.93) −0.08 (0.88)
ROE −9.51* (0.05) −13.30* (0.05) −11.12# (0.04)
PAT −0.05# (0.00) −0.03(0.27) −0.04# (0.03)
Adj. R2 0.75 0.81 0.65
F-stat. (Prob.) 229.15 (0.00) 39.46 (0.00) 139.05 (0.00)
Wald test Chi-square stat. 1552.73 (0.00) 568.98 (0.00) 871.45 (0.00)
(Prob.)
Hausman p-value 0.76
Source: The authors.
Notes: 1. #Significance at the 5 per cent level.
2. *Significance at the 10 per cent level.
14 Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation 15(1–2)
Further, the RE regression model analysis indicates that maximum 10 per cent levels of significance. Hausman test
the amount of dividend paid per share has no significant indicates that the RE model is more relevant in describing
effect on MPS of the stock. This result is in tandem with the the relationship among the given variables as the null
outcomes of Denis and Osobov (2008), Adesola and hypothesis is not rejected.
Okwong (2009) and Adesina et al. (2017). However, the null From RE regression model analysis, we conclude that
hypothesis of no impact of RR on MPS cannot be rejected. EPS has a positive impact on MPS; DPS and RR have no
Thus, we infer that there is no significant relationship effects on MPS while DY, ROE and PAT have a negative
between the RR and MPS. This result is in contrast with the effect on MPS. Thus, we infer that shareholders don’t look
results reported by Adesina et al. (2017), Taimur, Harsh, and at the absolute amount of dividend paid per share but the
Rekha (2015) and Mohammad (2013). DY that the stock yields. That is, dividend payment results
Also, the null hypothesis of no impact of DY on MPS in an increase in the market price of the stock, thus resulting
is rejected at the 5 per cent level of significance. DY is in a lower DY. In a nutshell, we conclude that the dividend
found to have a negative impact on MPS. This result is in distribution affects MPSs and hence the dividend policy
line with the results of Baskin (1989). Similarly, the null has an impact on stock price. The results are similar to the
hypothesis of no impact of ROE on MPS is rejected at the findings by Baskin (1989), Benaruzi (1997), and Chen
5 per cent level of significance. ROE is found to have a et al. (2009) and Khan et al. (2011), while in contrast to the
negative impact on MPS. This result is in contrast with the findings of Ali and Chowdhury (2010). The results of this
results of Raballe and Hedensted (2008) and Khan, Amir, study support dividend relevance theories and models like
Qayyum, Nasir, and Khan (2011). Likewise, the results those by Gordon and Walter.
indicate that the control variable PAT has a negative sig- The results of this study are useful and important for
nificant effect on MPS. This result is in contrast with the investors, managers, lenders and other stakeholders. It is
results of Khan et al. (2011). Since most of the explanatory important for investors because they consider dividends
variables are significant with the moderate value of R2, not the only source of income but also a way to assess
and none of the explanatory variables have perfect or firms from the investment point of view. The results are
near-perfect correlation, the random model does not have a imperative for the management to formulate the dividend
multicollinearity problem. policy in such a way as to maximise shareholders’ wealth.
The future study can focus on a larger group of companies
Thus, we conclude from the regression analysis that
or it can be industry specific.
EPS have a positive impact on the MPS; DPS and RR have
no effects on the MPS while DY, ROE and PAT have a Declaration of Conflicting Interests
negative effect on the MPS. Thus, we conclude that the
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect
shareholders don’t look at the absolute amount of dividend
to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
paid per share but the DY that the stock gives. This is
because dividend payment results in an increase in the Funding
market price of stock, thus resulting in a lower DY. In a
The authors received no financial support for the research,
nutshell, we conclude that the dividend distribution affects
authorship and/or publication of this article.
the MPS and hence the dividend policy has an impact on
stock price. The results are similar to the findings of Baskin
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