EMORF/S: EM-Based Outlier-Robust Filtering and Smoothing With Correlated Measurement Noise
EMORF/S: EM-Based Outlier-Robust Filtering and Smoothing With Correlated Measurement Noise
Abstract—In this article, we consider the problem of outlier- Particle Filters (PFs) [14], ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) [15]
robust state estimation where the measurement noise can be etc.
correlated. Outliers in data arise due to many reasons like Smoothing, on the other hand, refers to offline state esti-
sensor malfunctioning, environmental behaviors, communication
glitches, etc. Moreover, noise correlation emerges in several real- mation where the primary concern is not to work on a per-
arXiv:2307.02163v1 [eess.SP] 5 Jul 2023
world applications e.g. sensor networks, radar data, GPS-based sample basis. We are rather interested in state inference consid-
systems, etc. We consider these effects in system modeling which ering the entire batch of measurements. Different options for
is subsequently used for inference. We employ the Expectation- smoothing exist including the famous Rauch–Tung–Striebel
Maximization (EM) framework to derive both outlier-resilient (RTS), two-filter smoothers [16], [17] etc.
filtering and smoothing methods, suitable for online and offline
estimation respectively. The standard Gaussian filtering and The standard state estimators are devised with the assump-
the Gaussian Rauch–Tung–Striebel (RTS) smoothing results are tion that the dynamical system under consideration is perfectly
leveraged to devise the estimators. In addition, Bayesian Cramer- modeled. The estimators assume the availability of system
Rao Bounds (BCRBs) for a filter and a smoother which can and observation mathematical models including the process
perfectly detect and reject outliers are presented. These serve as and measurement noise statistics. However, any modeling
useful theoretical benchmarks to gauge the error performance
of different estimators. Lastly, different numerical experiments, mismatch can result in deteriorated performance even possibly
for an illustrative target tracking application, are carried out crippling the functionality of the regular estimators completely.
that indicate performance gains compared to similarly engineered In this work, we are interested in coping with the modeling
state-of-the-art outlier-rejecting state estimators. The advantages discrepancy and the associated estimation degradation that
are in terms of simpler implementation, enhanced estimation results from the occurrence of outliers in the measurements.
quality, and competitive computational performance.
Data outliers can arise due to several factors including data
Index Terms—State-Space Models, Approximate Bayesian In- communication problems, environmental variations, and ef-
ference, Nonlinear Filtering and Smoothing, Outliers, Kalman fects, data preprocessing front-end malfunctioning, inherent
Filters, Variational Inference, Expectation-Maximization, Robust
Estimation, Statistical Learning, Stochastic Dynamical Systems. sensor defects, and degradation, etc [9]. We keep our con-
sideration generic by taking into account the possibility of
correlated measurement noise with a fully enumerated nominal
I. I NTRODUCTION noise covariance matrix. This is in contrast to the existing
approaches where noise in each data dimension is assumed
TATE estimation is a key fundamental task in analyzing
S different dynamical systems with subsequent decision-
making and control actions arising in a variety of fields
to be independent targeting a specific class of applications
[18]. However, this leaves out several important application
scenarios where noise correlation exists which should be taken
including cybernetics, robotics, power systems, sensor fusion, into account. For example, due to double differencing of
positioning, and target tracking [1]–[10] etc. The states de- the original measurements in Real Time Kinematic (RTK)
scribing the system dynamics can evolve intricately. Moreover, systems, noise correlation appears [19]. Likewise, a significant
these are not directly observable only manifesting themselves negative correlation exists between the range and range rate
in the form of external measurements. Mathematically, it measurement noise in radar data [20]. Similarly, due to the
means that for state estimation in general, the inference is use of a common reference sensor to extract the time differ-
performed considering stochastic nonlinear equations making ence of arrival (TDOA), correlated range measurement noise
it a nontrivial task. arises [21]. Besides, in different sensor networks, correlated
Filtering is the common term used for online state estima- observation noise also emerges [22]–[24].
tion where inference is carried out at each arriving sample. The problem of neutralizing data outliers during state es-
Kalman filter with its linear and nonlinear versions [11]–[13] timation has been approached with various proposals. The
are considered the primary choices for filtering given their traditional way of dealing with outliers is based on assuming
ease of implementation and estimation performance. Other fixed statistics for measurement noise or the residuals between
options for nonlinear filtering are also available including predicted and actual measurements. For example, different
methods based on Monte-Carlo (MC) approximations e.g. methods resort to describing observation noise using heavy-
tailed distributions like the Student-t and Laplace densities
The authors are with Department of Electrical Engineering, Lahore [25], [26]. Similarly, the theory of robust statistics suggests
University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore Cantt., 54792, La-
hore Pakistan. (email: [email protected]; [email protected]; the use of prior models for residuals to downweigh the effect
[email protected]) of outliers during inference [27]–[29]. Moreover, some tech-
2
0 0
0 0
(a) Static loss functions in traditional methods (b) Adaptive loss functions in learning-based methods
Fig. 1: Typical loss functions for outlier-robust state estimators. In traditional approaches, the loss function is static. In learning-
based methods, the loss function adapts e.g. between a quadratic function and a constant to weight the data during inference.
niques are based on rejecting the data sample by comparing [35]. But the authors only consider linear systems and test
the normalized measurement residuals with some predefined the method with diagonal measurement noise covariance ma-
thresholds [30], [31]. trices. With the possibility of correlated measurements, the
Literature survey indicates that performances of the con- Variational Bayes Kalman Filter (VBKF) has been devised
ventional approaches are sensitive to the tuning of the design [19] by extending the work in [33]. However, we observe that
parameters which affect the static residual error loss func- VBKF assumes a complex hierarchical model. As a result,
tions during estimation [32]. Therefore, tuning-free learning- along with updating the state densities, it involves updating
based techniques have been justified in prior works that the nuisance parametric distributions and their hierarchical
make the error loss function adaptive [18], [19], [32]–[35]. distributions during the VB updates. This includes evaluation
These approaches consider appropriate distributions for the of the digamma function to find the expectation of logarithmic
measurement noise and subsequently learn the parameters expressions [19], [33]. Therefore, implementing VBKF can
describing the distributions and consequently the loss functions get complicated e.g. within an embedded computing device
during state estimation. Fig. 1 depicts the comparison of where access to such functions is not inherently available and
typical static loss functions in traditional approaches and additional libraries are required. Moreover, extending VBKF
dynamic loss functions in learning-based methods considering to outlier-robust smoothing also gets cumbersome. This calls
a uni-dimensional model for visualization (see Section III-D for simpler state estimation approaches, for systems with
[32] for more details). Resultingly, learning-based robust state correlated noise, that can weather the effect of outliers.
estimators offer more advantages by reducing user input, being With this background, considering the possibility of corre-
more general, and suiting better for one-shot scenarios. lated measurements in nonlinear dynamical systems, we make
Several learning-based methods for robust state estimation the following contributions in this work.
have been reported in the relevant literature. As exact inference • Using a suitable model and VB (more specifically
is not viable for developing these approaches, approximate Expectation-Maximization (EM)) we devise an outlier-
inference techniques like PFs and variational Bayesian (VB) robust filter availing the standard Gaussian filtering re-
methods can be used in their design. Since PFs can be compu- sults. The results are further utilized in deriving an
tationally prohibitive, VB-based techniques are the appealing outlier-robust smoother based on the standard Gaussian
alternative considering these can leverage the existing standard RTS smoothing. Since our proposed method is inspired
filtering and smoothing results. Our focus in this work remains by our prior work which considers independent measure-
on the learning-based outlier mitigation approaches designed ment noise [18], we also present insightful connections.
using VB. • We derive Bayesian Cramer-Rao Bounds (BCRBs) for
In previous works, we observe that various outlier-robust a filter and a smoother which can perfectly detect and
state estimators, devised using VB, treat the entire measure- reject outliers. This provides a useful benchmark to
ment vector collectively during estimation owing to under- assess the estimation ability of different outlier-mitigating
parameterized modeling [32]–[34]. Instead of treating each di- estimators.
mension individually, the complete vector is either considered • We evaluate the performance of the devised estimators as
or downweighted by varying the noise covariance matrix by a compared to the other similarly devised outlier-discarding
scalar multiplicative factor. This leaves room for improvement methods. Different scenarios of a relevant TDOA-based
considering useful information is unnecessarily lost during target tracking application are considered in numerical
inference. In this regard, we offer a vectorial parameterization experiments indicating the merits of the proposed meth-
to treat each dimension individually in [18]. Therein we also ods.
suggest a way to make the estimators in [32]–[34] selective. The rest of the article is organized as follows. Section II
However, these proposals are based on the assumption of provides the modeling details. In Section III, we present the
independent noise for each measurement dimension. Another derivation of the proposed filter. Thereafter, the derivation of
learning-based outlier-resilient filter has been presented in the proposed smoother is given in Section IV. In Section
3
to a very large ith diagonal entry of Rk (I k ), while placing For our model, (8) becomes computationally unfriendly if
zeros at the remaining ith row and column of the matrix. we use the standard VB approach. In fact, the same complexity
Resultingly, when an outlier occurs in the ith dimension its order of O(m3 2m ) appears as with the basic marginalization
effect on state estimation is minimized. Moreover, the ith approach making this approach intractable too. We elaborate
dimension no longer has any correlation with any other entry, more on it in the upcoming subsection.
ceasing to have any effect on any other dimension during
inference. This is in contrast to Iki = 1 which ensures the
diagonal element and the off-diagonal correlation entries with Expectation-Maximization as a particular case of variational
other non-affected dimensions are preserved. Lastly, note that Bayes
the conditional likelihood is independent of the batch of all
To deal with the complexity issue, instead of considering
the historical observations y1:k−1 . Fig. 2 shows how the
distributions we can resort to point estimates for Iki . In
standard probabilistic graphical model (PGM) is modified into
particular, consider q f (Iki ) = δ(Iki − Îki ) where Îki denotes
the proposed PGM for devising outlier-robust state estimators.
the point approximation of Iki . Consequently, the variational
The suggested PGM meets the modeling aims of describing
distributions can be updated in an alternating manner in
the nominal and corrupted data sufficiently while remaining
the Expectation (E) and Maximization (M) steps in the EM
docile for statistical inference.
algorithm given as [37]
1) Derivation of q f (xk ): With the E-Step in (10) we can Algorithm 1: The proposed filter: EMORF
write Initialize m+ +
0 , P0 ;
1
n
q f (xk ) ∝ exp − (yk − h (xk )) R−1
⊤ for k = 1, 2...K do
2 k (Î k ) (yk − h (xk ))
Initialize θki , Î k , Qk , Rk ;
1 ⊤ o
− xk − m− − −1 −
k (Pk ) x k − m k (16) Prediction:
2
Evaluate m− −
k , Pk with (13) and (14);
where R−1 k (Î k ) assumes a particular form resulting from the
Update:
inversion of Rk (Î k ) as described while not converged do
in Appendix A.
Note that we avoid evaluating R−1 Update m+ +
k (I )
k q f (I ) that would k and Pk with (17)-(18);
k
i
be required in the standard VB approach. This means that we Update Îk ∀ i with (22);
are able to evade the complexity level of around O(m3 2m ) end
since matrix inversion for each of the 2m combinations are end
required to evaluate the expectation. However, thanks to EM,
we are now working with R−1 k (Î k ) which can be evaluated
with the maximum complexity of O(m3 ) (considering a fully Resultingly, Îki can be determined as
populated matrix). (
To proceed further, we use the results of the general Gaus- i 1 if τ̂ki ≤ 0,
Îk = (22)
sian filter, to approximate q f (xk ) with a Gaussian distribution, 0 if τ̂ki > 0
+ +
N xk |mk , Pk , with parameters updated as
with
−
m+
k = mk + Kk (yk − µk ) (17) n |R (I i = 1, Î i− )|
k k
P+ − ⊤
τ̂ki = tr Wk △R̂−1 k
k = Pk − Ck Kk (18) k + ln i−
i
|Rk (Ik = ϵ, Î k )|
where 1 o
+ 2 ln i − 1 (23)
θk
Kk = Ck (Uk + Rk (Î k ))−1 = {Ck (R−1
k (Î k )
−R−1 (Î k )(I + Uk R−1 −1
Uk R−1 where
k (Î k )) k (Î k ))}
Z k i− i−
µk = h(xk ) N xk |m− −
△R̂−1 −1 i −1 i
k = (Rk (Ik = 1, Î k ) − Rk (Ik = ϵ, Î k )) (24)
k , Pk dxk
Z Using the steps outlined in Appendix B, we can further
Uk = (h(xk ) − µk )(h(xk ) − µk )⊤ N (xk |m− −
k , Pk )dxk simplify τ̂ki as
Z
Ck = (xk − m− ⊤ − − R−i,i Ri,−i (R̂k−i,−i )−1
k )(h(xk ) − µk ) N (xk |mk , Pk )dxk
n
i −1 k k
τ̂k = tr Wk △R̂k + ln I −
Rki,i
2) Derivation of Îki : With the M-Step in (11) we can write 1 o
+ ln(ϵ) + 2 ln i − 1 (25)
i− θk
Îki = argmax ln(p(xk , Iki , Î k |y1:k ) qf (x
(19)
k)
Iki where R̂−i,−i
k is the submatrix of Rk (Î k ) corresponding to
i−
Using the Bayes rule we can proceed as entries of Î k . Ri,−i
k and R−i,i
k contain the measurement
covariances between ith and rest of the dimensions.
i− −1
Îki = argmax ln(p(yk |xk , Iki , Î k , y1:k−1 )) qf (x Though we can directly evaluate △R̂k in (24), we can
k)
Iki save computations by avoiding repetitive calculations. To this
i− end, we first need to compute
+ ln(p(Iki |xk , Î k , y1:k−1 )) + const. (20) i,i
Ξi,−i
−1 Ξ
where const. is some constant and p(x|y, z) denotes the △R̂k = (26)
Ξ−i,i Ξ−i,−i
conditional independence of x and z given y. We can further
write with
n
1 i− 1 i− 1 ϵ
Îki = argmax − tr Wk R−1 i i Ξi,i = −
k (Ik , Î k ) − ln |Rk (Ik , Î k )|
(27)
Iki
2 2 Rki,i− Ri,−i
k (R̂−i,−i
k )−1 R−i,i
k Rki,i
o Rki,−i (R̂−i,−i )−1
+ ln (1 − θki )δ(Iki − ϵ) + θki δ(Iki − 1) (21) Ξi,−i = − i,i k
(28)
Rk − Ri,−ik (R̂−i,−i
k )−1 R−i,i
k
i−
where Rk (Iki , Î k ) denotes Rk (I k ) evaluated at I k with it (R̂−i,−i )−1 R−i,i
i− Ξ−i,i = − i,i k k
(29)
ith element as Iki and remaining entries Î k and Rk − Ri,−ik (R̂−i,−i
k )−1 R−i,i
k
Z (R̂−i,−i )−1 −i,i i,−i
R R ( R̂−i,−i −1
)
⊤
Wk = (yk − h (xk )) (yk − h (xk )) N (xk |m+ + Ξ−i,−i = k k k k
(30)
k , Pk )dxk i,i i,−i
Rk − Rk (R̂k −i,−i −1 −i,i
) Rk
6
−1
where the ith row/column entries in △R̂k have been conve- estimates for Iki ∀ i in [18] can be obtained with the following
niently swapped with the first row/column elements to obtain criterion
−1 −1
△R̂k . By swapping the first row/column entries of △R̂k to (
−1 i 1 if τ̄ki ≤ 0,
the ith row/column positions we can reclaim △R̂k . Appendix Îk = (34)
0 if τ̄ki > 0
C provides further details in this regard.
The resulting EM-based outlier-robust filter (EMORF) is To deduce Îki = 1, the following should hold
outlined as Algorithm 1. For the convergence criterion, we
suggest using the ratio of the L2 norm of the difference of the Ωik ≥ 1 − Ωik (35)
state estimates from the current and previous VB iterations Ωik ≥ 0.5 (36)
and the L2 norm of the estimate from the previous iteration.
This criterion has been commonly chosen in similar robust where Ωik denotes the posterior probability of Iki = 1. Using
filters [18], [33]. the expression of Ωik from [18] we can write (36) as
1
√ 1 i,i ≥ 0.5 (37)
C. VB factorization of p(xk , I k |y1:k ) and the associated
W
1 + ϵ θi − 1 exp 2Rki,i (1 − ϵ)
computational overhead k k
Z Iki
− +
mk = f (xk−1 ) N xk−1 |m+
k−1 , P k−1 dxk−1 (45) i−
+ ln(p(x1:K , Iki , Ĭ k , Ĭ k− |yk− ))
Z n q s (x1:K )
+ const.
P− (f (xk−1 ) − m− − ⊤ (55)
k = k )(f (xk−1 ) − mk ) (46)
+
o which leads to
N (xk−1 |m+k−1 , P k−1 ) dxk−1 + Qk−1 (47) i−
Ĭki = argmax ln(p(yk |xk , Iki , Ĭ k )) qs (x
−
m+
k = mk + Kk (yk − νk ) (48) Iki
k)
P+
k = P−
k − C k K⊤
k (49) i−
+ ln(p(Iki |x1:K , Ĭ k , Î k− , yk− )) + const. (56)
where which is similar to (20) except that the expectation is taken
Kk = C k (U k + Rk (Ĭ k )) = {C k (R−1
−1 with respect to the marginal smoothing distribution q s (xk ).
k (Ĭ k )
Consequently, Ĭki can be determined as
−Rk (Ĭ k )(I + U k Rk (Ĭ k )) U k R−1
−1 −1 −1
k (Ĭ k ))} (
1 if τ̆ki ≤ 0,
Z
−
h(xk ) N xk |m−
i
νk = k , P k dxk Ĭk = (57)
Z 0 if τ̆ki > 0
−
Uk = (h(xk ) − νk )(h(xk ) − νk )⊤ N (xk |m−
k , P k )dxk where
Z
Ck = (xk − m− ⊤ − −
n R−i,i Ri,−i (R̆−i,−i )−1
k )(h(xk ) − νk ) N (xk |mk , P k )dxk
i −1 k k k
τ̆k = tr W k △R̆k + ln I −
Rki,i
Note that Rk (Ĭ k ) and R−1 k (Ĭ k ) can be evaluated similar to
1 o
+ ln(ϵ) + 2 ln i − 1 (58)
Rk (Î k ) and R−1
k (Î k ). θk
Backward pass: The backward pass can be completed as
Z with
+ − ⊤ + + i− i−
Lk+1 = (xk − mk )(f (xk ) − mk+1 ) N xk |mk , P k dxk △R̆−1 −1 i −1 i
k = (Rk (Ik = 1, Ĭ k ) − Rk (Ik = ϵ, Ĭ k )) (59)
(50) −i,−i
−1 which can be be calculated similar to △R̂−1 k in (24). R̆k
−
G k = Lk+1 P k+1 (51) denotes the submatrix of Rk (Ĭ k ) corresponding to entries of
s + s −
i−
mk = mk + G k mk+1 − mk+1 (52) Ĭ k and
−
⊤
P sk = P + s
k + G k P k+1 − P k+1 G k (53)
Z
⊤
W k = (yk − h (xk )) (yk − h (xk )) N (xk |msk , P sk )dxk
i
2) Derivation of Ĭk : With the M-Step in (42) we can write
i−
The resulting EM-based outlier-robust smoother (EMORS)
Ĭki = argmax ln(p(x1:K , Iki , Ĭ k , Ĭ k− |y1:k ) qs (x ) (54) is outlined as Algorithm 2. We suggest using the same
1:K
Iki convergence criterion and parameters as for robust filtering.
8
J− 22 21 + 11
−1 12 Target
k = Dk−1 (1) − Dk−1 Jk−1 + Dk−1 Dk−1 (60)
−
J+ 22
k = Jk + Dk−1 (2) (61)
350
where J+ x0
0 = ⟨−∆x0 ln p(x0 )⟩p(x0 ) and
⊤
∆Θ
Ψ = ∇Ψ ∇Θ (62)
⊤ 350
∂ ∂
∇Θ = ,..., (63)
∂Θ1 ∂Θr Fig. 3: Target tracking test example setup
D11
k = ⟨−∆xxkk ln p (xk+1 | xk )⟩p(xk+1 ,xk ) (64)
x For performance evaluation, we resort to a target tracking
D12
k = ⟨−∆xk+1
k ln p (xk+1 | xk )⟩p(xk+1 ,xk ) (65)
⊤ problem with TDOA-based range measurements inspired by
D21 xk 12
k = ⟨−∆xk+1 ln p (xk+1 | xk )⟩p(xk+1 ,xk ) = Dk [21]. Fig. 3 shows the setup of the considered example. Owing
(66) to the use of a common reference sensor to obtain the TDOA
D22 = D22 22 observations, from the difference of the time of arrival (TOA)
k k (1) + Dk (2) (67)
22 xk+1 measurements, the resulting covariance matrix becomes fully
Dk (1) = ⟨−∆xk+1 ln p (xk+1 | xk )⟩p(xk+1 ,xk ) (68)
x
populated.
D22
k (2) = ⟨−∆xk+1
k+1 ln p (yk+1 | xk+1 )⟩p(yk+1 ,xk+1 ) (69) We consider the process equation for the target assuming
The bound is valid given the existence of the following deriva- an unknown turning rate as [33]
tives and expectations terms for an asymptotically unbiased
estimator [41]. For the perfect rejector considering the system xk = f (xk−1 ) + qk−1 (76)
9
where Jkj is a Bernoulli random variable, with values 0 Fig. 4: MSE vs λ (m = 10, γ = 1000)
and 1, that controls whether an outlier in the jth dimension
occurs. Let λ denote the probability that a sensor’s TOA First, we choose 10 number of sensors with γ = 1000 and
measurement is affected. Therefore, the probability that no increase the TOA contamination probability λ. Fig. 4 shows
outlier appears in the jth dimension, corresponding to Jkj = 0, the mean squared error (MSE) of the state estimate of each
is (1 − λ)2 since the first sensor is a common reference for filter as λ is increased. For λ = 0 all the filters essentially
the TDOA-based measurements. We assume that the TOA work as the standard UKF having similar performance. As λ
measurements are independently affected and the corruption increases, MSE of each method and the lower bound value
of the first TOA observation affects all the measurements. are seen to increase. The hypothetical ideal UKF exhibits the
10
(i)
best performance followed by the proposed EMORF, Gen. and determinants for evaluating each of the Iki and zt
VBKF, and Ind. VBKF respectively. The trend remains the ∀ i = 1 · · · m in EMORF and Gen. VBKF respectively. This
same for each λ. Similar patterns have been observed for is the cost we pay for achieving robustness with correlated
other combinations of m and γ. Performance degradation measurement noise. Nevertheless, we find that EMORF gen-
of Ind. VBKF as compared to EMORF and Gen. VBKF is erally takes less processing time as compared to Gen. VBKF
expectable as it ignores the measurement correlations during as shown in Fig. 6. Moreover, similar performance has been
filtering. We find EMORF to be generally more robust in observed for other combinations of λ and γ. This can be
comparison to Gen. VBKF. Our results are not surprising given attributed to a simpler model being employed in EMORF
that we found the modified selective observation rejecting resulting in reduced computations.
(mSOR)-UKF to be more resilient to outliers as compared
to the modified outlier-detecting (mOD)-UKF [18], which B. Smoothing Performance
are designed for independent measurements having similar
structures to EMORF and VBKF respectively. For smoothing we perform analogous experiments and
observe similar performance.
Finally, R−1
k (Î k ) can be swapped accordingly to obtain the
required matrix R−1k (Î k ) .
Fig. 9: Time vs m (λ = 0.2 and γ = 100)
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