Statistics Thirteenth Edition
Chapter 3
Probability
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Section 3.1 Events, Sample
Spaces, and Probability
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Definition 1
An experiment is an act or process of observation
that leads to a single outcome that cannot be
predicted with certainty
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Definition 2
A sample point is the most basic outcome of an
experiment.
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Figure 3-1 Tree Diagram for the Coin-
Tossing Experiment
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Figure 3-2 Venn diagrams for the Three
Experiments from Table 3-1
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Definition 3
The sample space of an experiment is the
collection of all its sample points.
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Table 3-1
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Figure 3-3 Proportion of Heads in N Tosses
of a Coin
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Figure 3-4 Experiment: Invest in a Business Venture
and Observe Whether it Succeeds (S) or Fails (F)
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Procedure 1
Probability Rules for Sample Points
Let represent the probability of sample point i.
Then
1. All sample point probabilities must lie between 0
and 1
2. The probabilities of all the sample points within
a sample space must sum to 1
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Figure 3-5 Die-toss Experiment with Event
A, Observe an Even Number
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Definition 4
An event is a specific collection of sample points.
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Definition 5
Probability of an Event
The probability of an event A is calculated by
summing the probabilities of the sample points in
the sample space for A.
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Procedure 2
Steps for Calculating Probabilities of Events
1. Define the experiment; that is, describe the process used to
make an observation and the type of observation that will be
recorded.
2. List the sample points.
3. Assign probabilities to the sample points.
4. Determine the collection of sample points contained in the
event of interest.
5. Sum the sample point probabilities to get the probability of
the event.
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Table 3-2
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Figure 3-6 Venn Diagram for AAMFT Survey
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Table 3-3
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Procedure 3
Combinations Rule
Suppose a sample of n elements is to be drawn without
replacement from a set of N elements. Then the number of
different samples possible is denoted by and is equal
to
where
and similarly for For example,
[Note: The quantity is defined to be
equal to 1.]
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Section 3.2 Unions and
Intersections
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Definition 6
The union of two events A and B is the event that
occurs if either A or B (or both) occurs on a single
performance of the experiment. We denote the
union of events A and B by the symbol
consists of all the sample points that belong to A or
B or both. (See Figure 3-7a.)
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Figure 3-7 Venn Diagrams for Union and
Intersection
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Definition 7
The intersection of two events A and B is the
event that occurs if both A and B occur on a single
performance of the experiment. We write
for the intersection of A and B. consists of
all the sample points belonging to both A and B.
(See Figure 3-7b.)
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Figure 3-8 Venn Diagram for Die Toss
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Table 3-4
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Section 3.3 Complementary
Events
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Definition 8
The complement of an event A is the event that A
does not occur-that is, the event consisting of all
sample points that are not in event A. We denote
the complement of A by
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Figure 3-9 Venn Diagram of Complementary
Events
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Procedure 4
Rule of Complements
The sum of the probabilities of complementary
events equals 1; that is,
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Figure 3-10 Complementary Events in the
Toss of Two Coins
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Section 3.4 The Additive Rule and
Mutually Exclusive Events
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Figure 3-11 Venn diagram of Union
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Procedure 5
Additive Rule of Probability
The probability of the union of events A and B is
the sum of the probability of event A and the
probability of event B, minus the probability of the
intersection of events A and B; that is,
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Figure 3-12 Venn Diagram of Mutually
Exclusive Events
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Definition 9
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if
contains no sample points-that is, if A and B have
no sample points in common. For mutually
exclusive events,
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Procedure 6
Probability of Union of Two Mutually Exclusive
Events
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of the union of A and B equals the sum
of the probability of A and the probability of B; that
is,
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Figure 3-13 Venn Diagram for Coin-Toss
Experiment
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Table SIA3.1
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Section 3.5 Conditional Probability
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Figure 3-14 Reduced Sample Space for the Die-toss
Experiment: given that Event B has Occurred
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Formula
Conditional Probability Formula
To find the conditional probability that event A occurs given
that event B occurs, divide the probability that both A and B
occur by the probability that B occurs; that is,
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Figure 3-15 Sample Space for Example 3-15
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Table 3-5
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Table 3-6
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Section 3.6 The Multiplicative Rule
and Independent Events
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Procedure 7
Multiplicative Rule of Probability
or, equivalently
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Figure 3-16 Venn Diagram for Finding P
of A
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Figure 3-17 Venn Diagram for Finding P of B
given A
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Figure 3-18 Tree Diagram for Example 3-17
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Definition 10
Events A and B are independent events if the
occurrence of B does not alter the probability that
A has occurred; that is, events A and B are
independent if
When events A and B are independent, it is also
true that
Events that are not independent are said to be
dependent.
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Figure 3-19 Venn Diagram for Die-Toss
Experiment
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Figure 3-20 Mutually Exclusive Events are
Dependent Events
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Procedure 8
Probability of Intersection of Two Independent
Events
If events A and B are independent, then the
probability of the intersection of A and B equals the
product of the probabilities of A and B; that is,
The converse is also true:
then events A and B are independent.
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Section 3.7 Some Additional
Counting Rules (Optional)
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Figure 3-23 Tree diagram for Shipping
Problem
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Procedure 9
The Multiplicative Rule
You have k sets of elements, in the first set,
in the second set,…, and in the kth set
Suppose you wish to form a sample of k elements
by taking one element from each of the k sets.
Then the number of different samples that can be
formed is the product
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Procedure 10
Permutations Rule
Given a single set of N different elements, you wish to select n
elements from the N and arrange them within n positions. The
number of different permutations of the N elements taken n at
a time is denoted by and is equal to
where and is called n factorial.
The quantity is
defined to be 1.
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Table 3-7
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Table 3-8
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Procedure 11
Partitions Rule
Suppose you wish to partition a single set of N
different elements into k sets, with the first set
containing elements, the second containing
elements,…, and the kth set containing
elements. Then the number of different partitions is
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Definition 11 (1 of 2)
Summary of Counting Rules
1. Multiplicative rule. If you are drawing one element from each of k
sets of elements, where the sizes of the sets are then
the number of different results is
2. Permutations rule. If you are drawing n elements from a set of N
elements and arranging the n elements in a distinct order, then the
number of different results is
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Definition 11 (2 of 2)
3. Partitions rule. If you are partitioning the elements of a set of N
elements into k groups consisting of elements
then the number of different results is
4. Combinations rule. If you are drawing n elements from a set of N
elements without regard to the order of the n elements, then the
number of different results is
[Note: The combinations rule is a special case of the partitions rule
when k = 2.]
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Section 3.9 Bayes’s Rule
(Optional)
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Figure 3-22 Tree Diagram for Example 3-31
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Procedure 12
Bayes’s rule
Given k mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
such that
and given an observed event A, it follows that
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