Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Guided Notes
Learning Objective(s):
Students will find the conditional probability of event A given B.
Students will be able to define the following key term: conditional probability.
Students will be able to draw tree diagrams to solve conditional probability problems.
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Review
KEY CONCEPTS:
VOCABULARY TERMS:
Probability of A and B
Independent event – when the outcome of one
event ________________ affect the outcome of the If A and B are independent events, then
second event.
Dependent event – when the outcome of one event
________________ affect the outcome of the second
event. Probability of A or B
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
Mutually exclusive events – when two events cannot then
happen ___________________________.
QUESTIONS
What does “with replacement” mean?
Answer: The events are _________________.
What does “without replacement” mean?
Answer: The events are _________________.
According to the Venn diagram, are A and B mutually exclusive? Why or why
not?
Answer: A and B _____________ mutually exclusive. The diagram shows that
A and B are _____________________ which means A and B _____________
______________________ at the same time.
J. Nguyen 1
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
The probability of an event A ___________ that event B has already occurred.
Notation:
KEY CONCEPT:
Conditional Probability
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) For any two events A and B with
𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0, then
Problem 1. Finding Conditional Probability It follows from the formula above
that
This table shows students by gender and by type of school in
2005. You pick a student at random.
What is 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒|𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)?
also known as the
Question: What is the condition? ______________________________
Answer: _______________________
J. Nguyen 2
Conditional Probability
Problem 2. Conditional Probability in Statistics Now You Try!
Americans recycle increasing amounts through municipal waste collection. The table shows the collection data
for 2007. What is the probability that a sample recycled waste is paper?
Show your work!
Question: What is the probability Show your work!
that a sample of recycled waste is
plastic?
Question: What is the probability Show your work!
that a sample of not recycled waste
is glass?
J. Nguyen 3
Conditional Probability
Using a Tree Diagram
Tree diagrams help ______________ given information
_____________.
It also helps determine __________________________
based on the _____________ information.
Note: You can also draw it vertically!
When calculating the overall probabilities:
We _______________ along the branches (of the tree).
We _______________ probabilities down the final
columns.
o This is a good tool for checking calculation errors.
o All probabilities MUST add up to _______!
Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram
A school system compiled the following information from a survey it sent to people who were juniors 10 years
earlier.
85% of students graduated from high school.
Of the students who graduated from high school, 90% are happy with their present jobs.
Of the students who did not graduate from high school, 60% are happy with their present jobs.
What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago
𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90
graduated from high school and is happy with his or her present job?
𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
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Fill in all
Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy information for
with present job, & NH = not happy with present tree diagram!
𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60
job.
What are we given?
𝑃(𝐺) = 0.85
𝑃(𝐻|𝐺) = 0.90
𝑃(𝐻|𝑁𝐺) = 0.60
What does this imply?
𝑃(𝑁𝐺) = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15
𝑃(𝑁𝐻|𝐺) = 1 − 0.90 = 0.10
𝑃(𝑁𝐻|𝑁𝐺) = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40
J. Nguyen 4
Conditional Probability
Recall the question: What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from
high school and is happy with his or her present job?
Now You Try!
Using the same tree diagram, answer the following questions:
1. What is the probability that a Show your work!
student from the same junior
class did not graduate and is
happy with his or her present
job?
2. What is the probability that a Show your work!
student did not graduate and is
not happy with his or her
present job?
J. Nguyen 5
Conditional Probability
Activity: Frayer Model
Create a Frayer model for the term: Conditional Probability. It must include the following:
Vocabulary word
Definition
Facts, characteristics, and/or formula
Example (create your own example!)
Non-example (create your own example!)
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