2023 Orbital Debris Breakups & ISS Maneuvers
2023 Orbital Debris Breakups & ISS Maneuvers
Orbital Debris
Quarterly News
Volume 27, Issue 2
June 2023
OFF
NASA
perigee altitude of 1537 km and 1163 km, The second breakup of 2023 occurred
ICE
ON
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IG
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In addition to the parent body, 21:35 GMT, when the new Indian Small Satellite
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MODELING
20 fragments (piece tags AD-AY, corresponding Launch Vehicle’s (SSLV) SS3 solid fuel third stage
A publication of the to Catalog Numbers 55717 to 55736) have fragmented after a 03:48 GMT launch from
NASA Orbital Debris entered the catalog. A Gabbard plot of this the Satish Dhawan Space Centre. The 2500 kg
Program Office (ODPO) debris cloud is presented in the figure. continued on page 2
Orbital Debris Quarterly News
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PROJECT REVIEW
Recent Advances in Modeling Hollow Objects
During Reentry
C. OSTROM, B. GREENE, AND J. MARICHALAR Table. List of geometric variables for wind tunnel test series.
Since 2018, the NASA Orbital Debris Program
Office (ODPO) has undertaken a project to build and Diameter or Width Length Inner Hole Size
Cross Section
(inches) (inches) (inches)
validate models for aerodynamic drag and aeroheating
of hollow objects during atmospheric reentry [1, 2]. Circle 0.5 0.125 0 (Solid)
These efforts have been performed primarily in gas Circle 0.5 0.125 0.05
dynamic simulations of conditions relevant to reentry Circle 0.5 0.125 0.25
from low Earth orbit (LEO) using NASA’s Direct Circle 0.5 0.125 0.45
Simulation Monte Carlo Analysis Code, or DAC. The Circle 0.5 0.5 0 (Solid)
second phase of this project is ongoing, expanding
Circle 0.5 0.5 0.05
the matrix of flow conditions and geometries from
the previous 81 simulation cases to nearly 1000 and Circle 0.5 0.5 0.25
utilizing the results to reduce the uncertainty in the Circle 0.5 0.5 0.45
drag and heating coefficients used in the ODPO’s Circle 0.5 1.5 0 (Solid)
Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) for the Circle 0.5 1.5 0.05
proposed hollow object model. The goal of this effort Circle 0.5 1.5 0.25
is to validate the current model assumptions, but also
Circle 0.5 1.5 0.45
provide updates to the ORSAT drag and aeroheating
Square 0.5 0.125 0 (Solid)
models for an expanded set of reentering object shapes.
In parallel with the numerical simulations, the Square 0.5 0.125 0.05
ODPO began a partnership with the University of Square 0.5 0.125 0.25
Texas at San Antonio’s (UTSA) Hypersonics Lab and Square 0.5 0.125 0.45
conducted a test series using the on-site Mach 7 Wind Square 0.5 0.5 0 (Solid)
Tunnel in October and November of 2022. The main
Square 0.5 0.5 0.05
purpose of this test series was to demonstrate that
Square 0.5 0.5 0.25
a Mach 7 wind tunnel could provide data sufficient
to build and validate a drag and aeroheating model Square 0.5 0.5 0.45
for implementation into ORSAT. This joint research Square 0.5 1.5 0 (Solid)
project follows previous successful partnerships Square 0.5 1.5 0.05
with the University of Texas at Austin (ODQN Square 0.5 1.5 0.25
vol. 22, issue 3, p. 3, September 2018; ODQN vol.
Square 0.5 1.5 0.45
23, issue 3, pp. 3-5, August 2019; and ODQN vol. 24,
issue 2, pp. 5-6, April 2020).
A simple test matrix of 24 cases was designed to
establish a performance baseline for the wind tunnel
(see Table). Some of the test samples, made from
aluminum and 3D-printed photopolymer, can be
seen in Figure 1. All test cases were intended to run
at a stagnation temperature of 700 K and a stagnation
pressure of approximately 90 to 120 psi; the wind
tunnel configuration [3] determined a test run time
of around 0.1 seconds, sufficient to provide steady-
state flow that could be compared with simulations
using NASA’s hypersonic computational fluid dynamics
solver Data Parallel Line Relaxation Code.
The test objects were released at the beginning
of each run, allowing them to fly freely in the test
section. The UTSA Hypersonics Lab developed a 3-D
object tracking code incorporating multiple highspeed
cameras. This new tracking code produces both
continued on page 4 Figure 1. A selection of square and right circular cylinder wind tunnel test samples.
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Orbital Debris Quarterly News
Modeling Advances
continued from page 3
translational and rotational information for the object during the As a stretch goal for the test series, UTSA and the ODPO
entire test or until the object moves beyond the visible part of tested the performance of the wind tunnel using helium as the test
the test section. A snapshot image of the tracking code’s output gas rather than air. This change was expected to change the test
can be seen in Figure 2, indicating the position and attitude of section Mach number from approximately 7.0 to approximately
the object at this time stamp. Given the centroid coordinates and 11.5 at the possible cost of degradation of the smoothness
rotation angle of the object during a time series, the following of the flow in the test section. While the tests at Mach 7.0
parameters can be computed: drag, lift, and moment coefficients. provided valuable validation data, a Mach number of 11.5 more
In addition to these kinetic measurements, temperature closely matches the Mach number of reentering spacecraft at
variations were analyzed using temperature sensitive paint (TSP) an altitude of between 60 km and 80 km, the altitude at which
on 20 of the 24 test objects and high-speed infrared cameras for spacecraft typically encounter peak aerodynamic and heating
all 24 test objects, an example of which can be seen in Figure 3. effects. The two tests indicated that the Mach number indeed
TSP allows temperature measurements to be collected at the increased but only to approximately 11.0 due to unanticipated
frame rate of the high-speed cameras. The lower frame-rate viscous effects. The flow in the test section also did not appear
infrared camera measurements can be used to validate and to be significantly degraded. These two test shots demonstrated
calibrate the TSP. The measured temperature variations with time additional capability at the UTSA Wind Tunnel facility to achieve
were used to compute heat flux over the visible surface of the flow conditions relevant to critical phases of atmospheric reentry.
test objects. Data processing is still underway to finalize the object tracking
and TSP calibration. Once this data
processing is complete, these tests
will provide valuable validation data
to compare to ORSAT hollow object
drag models.
References
1. Marichalar, J. and Ostrom,
C. “Estimating Drag and Heating
Coefficients for Hollow Reentry
Objects in Transitional Flow Using
DSMC [Direct Simulation Monte
Carlo],” International Orbital Debris
Conference, 2019.
2. Ostrom, C. “Challenges
Figure 2. Snapshot of tracking code output for a 3 to 1 length-to-diameter cylinder. in Modeling Hollow Objects in
the Transition Flow Regime,”
Aerothermodynamics and Design for
Demise (ATD3) Workshop 2021.
3. Hoffman, E. et al.
“Characterization of the UTSA
Mach 7 Ludwieg Tube,” American
Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics SciTech Forum 2022. ♦
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Orbital Debris Quarterly News
Table. Mass range definitions for spacecraft size categories Breaking down the payloads by size and membership in a
large constellation highlights some of the reasons that payload
Category Mass Range launches have increased. The satellite community uses various
Femtosat < 1 kg categories for different masses of satellites, and these may vary
in definition depending on source. For purposes of this analysis,
Picosat 1 – 10 kg
the categories of satellites as a function of mass are defined in
Nanosat 10 – 50 kg the Table.
Figure 3 shows the category breakdown of all payloads for
Microsat 50 – 100 kg
the last two years, and clearly indicates the recent trend towards
Minisat 100 – 300 kg large constellations and small payloads; nearly three quarters of
all payloads are members of a large constellation and over half
Medium Sat 300 kg – 1 ton
of the remaining payloads have a mass of less than 100 kg each.
Large Sat 1 ton – 5 ton Nearly 8% of all payloads are CubeSats with dry masses under
Very Large Sat > 5 ton 15 kg. Less than 7% of payloads did not have sufficient information
for classification, thus marked as uncategorized in Figure 3.
The number of small constellations (with
Very Large Sat (0.2%) fewer than 100 members, such as FLOCK,
Large Sat (1.8%) LEMUR, and GlobalHawk) and single-satellite
Medium Sat (0.7%) payloads launched has also increased since
Uncategorized (6.7%)
Minisats (1.3%) 2021, as shown in the total objects for each
Microsats (2.7%) PocketQube (0.4%)
quarter in Figure 4. This increase is mostly driven
Nanosats (0.8%) Crewed Spacecraft (0.6%) by ride-share launches, dedicated multiple
Cubesats (7.6%) deployment missions like SpaceX’s “Transporter”
SpaceBEE (2.4%) launches, a burgeoning launch market for
Picosats (0.4%) dedicated sub-100 kg payloads, and technology
advances that allow more functionality in smaller,
OneWeb (11.5%) lower-mass packages. With the exception
of Q4 2022, the overall trend in launching
massive (payloads > 5 tons) is minimal; less than
15 payloads over the course of two years have
exceeded this metric with Q4 2022 accounting
Starlink (63.0%) for 3. This is in contrast to the number of small
satellites (< 0.5 ton) that, on average has risen
Figure 3. Pie diagram of payload categories for all payloads added to the catalog from over the past two years. Satellites smaller than
Q2 2021 to Q1 2023. 30 kg (Picosats and smaller) make up more than
half of these smaller payloads almost every
quarter, and even smaller form-factor satellites
150 are becoming popular, with more than half of
all PocketQube spacecraft (Femtosats) ever
launched making it to orbit in 2022.
Femtosats/PocketQube
Monitoring the historical space traffic
Tracked Payloads
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continued on page 8
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Orbital Debris Quarterly News
ORDEM Overview
continued from page 7
Table. Spacecraft/Telescope Mode data entry options input field validation rules from the publicly released
ORDEM software are applied. Additional options for
Add Adds a task of default values entering data in the assessment modes are described in
the Table.
Copy Copies selected tasks Two additional options are presented to the user
shown in both Figure 2 and 3 as on or off slider buttons.
Delete Deletes selected tasks The first option, “Generate all Plots?”, will generate
the standard plots for all tasks if checked (default is
Import Import tasks from .csv
unchecked). These plots (i.e., Average Flux versus
Size, Velocity Flux, 2-D Directional Flux) are saved as
Export Export task table to .csv
high-resolution PNG files for each task. Figure 4 is an
example of the 2-D directional flux plot (particle size
Add TLE Add task using a TLE dataset (Spacecraft-only)
> 10 um) for a 400 km × 400 km altitude, 51.6-degree
inclination orbit from the standalone ORDEM 3.2
Import TLEs Import tasks from a file of TLE sets (Spacecraft-only)
frontend, and Figure 5 is the same plot produced from
the ORDEM web application. The second option, “Create
Save Saves tasks to the browser session
Sigma Files?”, will generate the igloo flux uncertainty
Submit Submits all tasks to the cloud
files for all tasks if checked. However, if the user does
not need the uncertainty files in their assessment, then
leaving this option unchecked will speed up the ORDEM
run and decrease the file size of downloaded results. For
more information on the uncertainty files or different
types of ORDEM plots, see the latest version of the
ORDEM Software User Guide. Note that there are no
major changes between the ORDEM 3.1 and ORDEM
3.2 user guides. The plotting options and uncertainty
calculations remain the same in both documents.
The Job Status page, accessible from the top menu,
shows the progress of a submitted job. Once the user
enters a valid job-id in the text field and clicks the Search
button, the current progress for each task will display
on the page. The status table includes several columns.
The Folder Name column shows the unique folder names
for each task. The Description column lists the orbital
elements (spacecraft mode) or sensor targets (telescope/
radar mode) for each task. The Phase column lists the
Figure 4. 2-D Directional Flux, 400 km x 400 km altitude, 51.6-degree orbit regions that are assessed in each task, and the
inclination orbit, as produced by standalone ORDEM 3.2 frontend. overall phase will update as the ORDEM model continues
running. The Progress column shows the percent
completed for each phase. The Complete column shows
a download link for each completed task. Once all tasks
are complete, the user can download all tasks in a single
compressed file by clicking the “ALL tasks (.zip)” button
at the top of the status table. Figure 6 shows an example
of a completed job with results ready for download to a
user’s local machine.
The ORDEM web application also includes a Flux
Calculator for spacecraft assessments, as shown in
Figure 7. Once the user uploads the necessary SIZEFLUX_
SC.OUT file, an average flux is calculated based on
the debris size entered in the text field. The level of
uncertainty (“Sigma σ Factor”) can be adjusted up to
3.0-σ, and the Upper Bound and Lower Bound fields
Figure 5. 2-D Directional Flux, 400 km x 400 km altitude, 51.6-degree
inclination orbit, as produced by ORDEM web application. continued on page 9
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ORDEM Overview
continued from page 8
Reference
The NASA Orbital Debris Photo Gallery has high resolution, computer-generated images of
objects in Earth orbit that are currently being tracked. Photos and graphics may be freely
downloaded from the NASA ODPO webpages, unless they include a third-party credit line.
In these cases, permission must be granted by the copyright owner.
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Orbital Debris Quarterly News
WORKSHOP REPORT
The Spacecraft Anomalies and Failures (SCAF) Workshop, 29-30 March 2023
The annual two-day Spacecraft Anomalies and Failures (SCAF) a broad range of space-related areas to exchange concepts to
workshop was held 29-30 March 2023. The NASA Engineering improve space systems, such as anomaly and failure attribution
and Safety Center hosted the unclassified Day 1 session at tools and root-cause analysis practices.
the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the National Day 1 topics included discussions of the space environment,
Reconnaissance Office hosted the Day 2 classified sessions in especially recent solar activity. There were also presentations on
Chantilly, Virginia. There were over 225 registered participants lessons learned from several high-profile NASA missions, such as
and 9 invited presentations for Day 1 and over 140 registered the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft, the James
participants and 10 invited presentations for Day 2. A diverse Webb Space Telescope, and crewed human vehicles. In addition,
group of U.S. and international aerospace community members presenters discussed the recurring theme of the importance
were in attendance, including representatives from academia, of collaboration, sharing of information, and communication
industry, civil, and military space organizations. Focused on between space entities to achieve maximum mission success and
space environment interactions and anomaly resolution lessons space safety. The agenda for this workshop can be found here:
learned, this workshop provided a chance for personnel from https://www.nasa.gov/nase/conferences/SCAF2023. ♦
UPCOMING MEETINGS
05-10 August 2023: 37th Small Satellite Conference, Logan, Utah, USA
Utah State University (USU) and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) will sponsor the
37th Annual USU/AIAA Conference on Small Satellites under the theme “Missions Small at Satellite Scale.” This conference will
explore future missions and delve into key technology drivers, operational constructs, and activities that inform and secure
success of small satellite missions at scale. The call for abstracts ended on 02 February 2023. Registration is now open for
attendees at https://smallsat.org/.
19-22 September 2023: 24th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies
Conference (AMOS), Maui, Hawaii, USA
The technical program of the 24th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference (AMOS) will focus on
subjects that are mission critical to space situational awareness. The technical sessions include papers and posters on orbital debris;
space situational/space domain awareness; adaptive optics and imaging; astrodynamics; non-resolved object characterization;
and related topics. The abstract submission deadline was 01 March 2023. Registration for this hybrid conference is now open for
in-person and virtual attendees. Additional information about the conference is available at https://amostech.com.
02-06 October 2023: 74th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Baku, Azerbaijan
The IAC will convene in 2023 with a theme of “Global Challenges and Opportunities: Give Space a Chance.” Of note, the 24th IAC
was last held in Baku 50 years ago in 1973. The IAC’s 21st International Academy of Astronautics Symposium on Space Debris
will cover debris measurements and characterization; modeling; risk analysis; hypervelocity impact and protection; mitigation;
post-mission disposal; space debris mitigation and removal; operations in the space debris environment; political and legal
aspects of mitigation and removal; orbit determination and propagation; and financial gains with space debris. This year, the
IAC will offer a venue for interactive presentations on space debris topics to allow more digital display capabilities for attendees.
The abstract submission deadline passed on 28 February 2023. Information about the conference and registration is available at
https://www.iafastro.org/events/iac/iac-2023/ and http://iac2023.org/. ♦
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The 2nd International Orbital Debris Conference (IOC) mission support, environment management, and other related
will convene December 4–7, 2023. The conference goal is to activities. The deadline for the submission of abstracts closed
highlight orbital debris research activities in the United States on April 6, 2023, after an extension. The final program for IOC II
and to foster collaborations with the international community. will be released in June 2023. More information is available at
The four-day, in-person conference will cover all aspects of https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/orbitaldebris2023/. ♦
micrometeoroid and orbital debris research, operations and
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SATELLITE BOX SCORE INTERNATIONAL SPACE MISSIONS
(as of 03 May 2023, cataloged by the
U.S. SPACE SURVEILLANCE NETWORK) 01 January 2023 – 31 March 2023
Spent Rocket Earth Other
Country/ Intl.* Country/ Perigee Apogee Incli. Addnl.
Spacecraft* Bodies & Other Total Designator
Spacecraft Organization Alt. (KM) Alt.(KM) (DEG) SC
Orbital Cat.
Organization Cataloged Debris R/B Debris
2023-015A STARLINK-5699 US 552 555 43.0 52 0 4
CHINA 609 4357 4966 2023-016A ELEKTRO-L 4 CIS 35778 35796 0.4 0 1 0
Total 10576 16072 26648 2023-025A HORUS 1 EGYP 486 506 97.5 0 1 2
2023-026A STARLINK-30050 US 355 355 43.0 20 0 0
* active and defunct
DRAGON
2023-027A US 412 419 51.6 0 0 0
ENDEAVOUR 4
DRAGON
2023-033A US 260 409 51.6 0 0 1
CRS-27
Technical Editor
SHIYAN 19
Heather Cowardin, Ph.D. 2023-034A (SY-19) PRC 492 514 97.5 0 0 0
CAPELLA-10
2023-035B US 590 595 44.0
Managing Editor (WHITNEY) 0 2 0
CAPELLA-9
Ashley Johnson 2023-035C
(WHITNEY)
US 591 596 44.0
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