CW R4B Research Paper

Eli Gendreau-Distler

Dr. Freeman

December 11, 2023

Modeling Climate Tipping Points: How Mathematical Models

Can Help Students and Scientists Understand Global Warming

Abstract

Climate models are widely acknowledged as an important tool for researchers in

predicting climate change. Because of their complexity, these models can create challenges for

communicating climate predictions to the general public. However, educational climate models

can also contribute to increased climate literacy and thereby improve support for climate action

among the general public. Schools are a natural place to begin implementing educational climate

models, which have already been shown to improve students’ learning in climate science.

Moreover, educational climate models provide a real-world application for concepts from many

different disciplines, thus motivating abstract material taught in other school subjects. This paper

will discuss a specific mathematical model of climate tipping points designed for research

purposes and will examine how it can be adapted for educational purposes to advance these two

goals. Further development of climate models for use in classrooms will contribute to increased

climate literacy, which in turn will ease the transition to a more sustainable society.
 I. Introduction

As society adapts to a warming climate, it will be essential to understand how global

warming progresses and when Earth’s climate could change very rapidly. Scientists have

understood for decades that the climate is far too complex to model in its entirety; consequently,

the challenge of climate modeling is identifying how best to approximate the complexities of

Earth’s climate.1 There are a wide range of mathematical models available for this task, each of

which helps us understand different climate variables by making different assumptions about the

evolution of Earth’s climate system over time. In this paper, I will focus on models that predict

climate tipping points, which are the circumstances under which Earth’s climate will transition

from one stable dynamical state to another.2 Needless to say, understanding when climate tipping

points will occur and what we must do to stop them is an essential component of an effective

response to climate change. There are many challenges inherent in climate modeling, which

include evaluating the validity of various assumptions and testing predictions for events that

have not yet occurred. It is important that we both recognize the limitations placed by these

challenges and work to overcome them in order to gain a better understanding of what lies ahead

for our planet.

Perhaps an even greater challenge than constructing climate models is interpreting the

predictions of these models and determining how they should inform our collective response to

global warming. While the predictions of a climate model can provide valuable insight into how

climate change will progress in the future, it is equally important to understand the assumptions

implicit in the model and the uncertainty associated with its predictions. There is no shortage of

news about global warming available to the general public, but it can be incredibly difficult to

distinguish reliable predictions from unfounded ones. Because people have such a wide range of
beliefs surrounding climate change, it has proved challenging to combat it through public policy.3

Improved math and science literacy—particularly in the environmental sciences—would help

address this issue.

While educating the entire population about climate change is a daunting and

complicated task, a natural place to start is improving climate education in schools. The United

Nations has endorsed climate education as a key component of our response to the climate

crisis.4,5 There are a number of different approaches to educating students about climate change,

and it is essential that we identify and employ the most effective strategies. One successful

approach that has been attempted thus far is using climate models to help students understand the

complexities of Earth’s climate system. Teachers generally find climate models to be an effective

educational tool, and it has been shown that students’ learning outcomes benefit from the use of

climate models in the classroom.4,6 The difficulty of this approach is figuring out how to simplify

the complicated climate models used by researchers into something accessible and

comprehensible to students.

In this project, I set out to learn about mathematical techniques for modeling climate

tipping points and to explore the possible uses of climate models for education. I focused on the

mathematical details of a particular climate model, which will be discussed in Section IV, and

considered how this climate model could be transformed into an educational tool. In the process,

I discovered that there are two main benefits to using climate models in the classroom. First,

allowing students to interact with climate models helps them understand climate science better

than a traditional lecture. Second, and perhaps more importantly, climate models highlight the

interdisciplinary nature of climate science and help students connect content from many

academic subjects to a significant issue facing the world today.

 Climate models, which have implications for both the academic and societal aspects of

the climate change, are a fitting research topic at this time because an effective response to global

warming requires that we not only understand where we are headed from a scientific perspective,

but also that we engage the general population in helping to avoid the most disastrous outcomes.

It is broadly accepted in the scientific community that we have little time left to avoid the

worst-case scenario outcomes of climate change.7 This makes it essential to understand exactly

when the worst-case scenario outcomes will occur and what changes will be sufficient to prevent

them, which is precisely what climate modeling aims to accomplish. However, a scientific

understanding of the problem and what we must do to solve it is not nearly enough. We must also

motivate the general population to contribute to a more sustainable world, and the best way to do

so is to help every citizen—especially young students—recognize that global warming is a dire

issue.

II. What is a Climate Model?

Before we can dive into the promising applications of climate models, I will first provide

a brief overview of what a climate model is. The purpose of a climate model is to help us

understand what the future holds for our warming planet under various assumptions about how

emissions will change in the coming years. Different climate models are designed to predict

different climate-related variables, but common predictions include the Earth’s surface

temperature and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.1,2 To obtain these valuable predictions,

we must provide information about the initial state of the climate variables and how we expect

these variables to change over time. An immediate difficulty with this approach is that modeling

any variable everywhere on Earth’s surface and in the atmosphere is computationally infeasible.1
Some models only focus on average parameters (e.g., average sea surface temperature) or net

parameters (e.g., net carbon dioxide emissions).2,8 Alternatively, models can track climate

variables on a grid of points and use a technique known as parameterization to account for

phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the distance between grid points.1 For example,

instead of modeling individual clouds, climate models can include a parameter for the “average

cloudiness” in a particular region.1 Either of these approaches makes it is computationally

feasible to track changes in a wide range of climate variables over long periods of time.

One of the most important uses of climate models is predicting when the climate might

change very rapidly and what we must do to prevent this from happening. The evolution of

Earth’s climate is understood to be nonlinear, meaning that small changes in certain climate

variables can have enormous impacts on other climate variables. To model this nonlinear

behavior, it is helpful to think in terms of climate tipping points, which are transitions of Earth’s

climate system from one stable equilibrium state into another.2,9 These tipping points can be

crossed in one of two ways: either due to internal fluctuations in the system, or due to forcing

from parameters external to the system.9 If we understand which aspects of the climate system

are most in danger of crossing a tipping point and what must be done to prevent tipping, we will

be better able to prioritize the most urgent parts of our response to climate change. At a

workshop on “Tipping Points in the Earth System,” experts in the field compiled a list of some of

the most concerning tipping elements—aspects of the climate system that are in danger of

crossing a tipping point.10 The Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet were at the top of the

list of the most policy-relevant tipping elements (i.e., tipping elements that should be prioritized

in public policy decisions).10 Because understanding tipping points is immensely important for
our response to global warming, I will focus primarily on models of climate tipping points in the

remainder of this paper.

When considering the predictions of any climate model, we must bear in mind the

assumptions and simplifications that are implicit in the model. As discussed above, all models

will need to make some assumptions and simplifications in order to be computationally feasible;

the tradeoff between accuracy and practicality is inescapable.1 So, how do we determine the

extent to which these necessary assumptions change the predictions of a model? And how much

should we rely on a model that incorporates some unrealistic assumptions? The natural solution

is to test the model, but testing climate models is inherently difficult since the purpose of such

models is to help us understand events that have not yet occurred. A common strategy is to use

the same model to “predict” past events and compare the predictions to those of other models as

well as geologic evidence.1 For example, Schneider discusses how he and his collaborators

improved a climate model after attempting to apply it to the unusually warm climate in the

Cretaceous period.1 They were using a model that assumed a uniform sea-surface temperature,

but quickly discovered that such models are inadequate for studying the relationship between

heat transport in the ocean and average temperatures on land.1 This realization motivated the

development of new models that calculate sea-surface temperatures at each grid point.1 In

addition to explaining past events better, the new models are likely to provide more accurate

predictions of future warming events. Going forward, comparisons between predictions of past

events and geologic evidence will be essential for evaluating the validity of assumptions implicit

in models designed to predict climate change.

III. Climate Models for Education

As part of the global response to climate change, the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) urges nations to “promote and facilitate … the

development and implementation of educational and public awareness programmes on climate

change and its effects.”5 Climate education will undoubtedly help prepare today’s youth to lead

the fight against the climate crisis in the years and decades to come. For this reason, it is

extremely important to implement effective climate education programs. Before we can do so,

we must agree upon the fundamental goals of climate education. Various studies conducted thus

far have focused on teaching students about the scientific method or improving their

evidence-based reasoning.4,6,11 For the purposes of this paper, I will follow the UNFCCC’s

justification for climate education, which is that “everyone, including and perhaps especially the

young, must understand and participate in the transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient

world.”5 I will take the goals of climate education to be teaching students about the current state

of the climate crisis, how we got here, and what we can do to move toward a better future in

addition to furthering their knowledge of traditional school subjects such as math and

environmental science.

While there are many possible approaches to climate education, I believe that educational

climate models are among the most promising options. I will focus on one of the most popular

educational climate models available today: the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM).

EdGCM is a simplified version of a climate model used by researchers at NASA that is designed

to be run on a personal computer with an interface that is accessible to students.11 The goal of

EdGCM is to help students explore the scientific process in the same manner as climate

scientists.11 In particular, the model is designed to guide students through the steps of designing
experiments, setting up simulations, running experiments, analyzing output, and communicating

results.11 There is also a server-based version of EdGCM, known as the Easy Global Climate

Model (EzGCM), that expedites the process of running climate simulations for students by

allowing teachers to run the simulations in advance and upload the output to an online portal.11,12

Interestingly, the overarching goal of EdGCM is not to teach students about climate change, but

instead to teach them about scientific practices more broadly, using climate change as a specific

example. In some sense, the distinction is merely semantic because any educational climate

model is bound to accomplish both. However, when I discuss the process of building an

educational climate model in Section V, it will be important to consider whether one or both of

these goals are being met.

Studies have already shown that both students and teachers find climate models to be a

helpful educational tool. For example, Bhattacharya et al. designed a curriculum module

containing model-based and non-model-based data analysis activities and implemented it in a

high school Geoscience course.4 The model-based activities were built on EzGCM, the

server-based version of EdGCM that is simpler and faster to run.4,11 The students’ learning

outcomes were assessed using the Evidence-Based Reasoning framework, which focuses on

students’ ability to establish a premise, interpret the evidence, and formulate a claim.4 By

collecting student tasks and interviews, Bhattacharya et al. determined that students were better

prepared to establish a premise and interpret the available evidence after completing the

model-based activities, and that they were equally prepared to formulate a claim after completing

the model-based and non-model-based activities.4 In keeping with the underlying goals of

EdGCM, this study confirmed the effectiveness of climate models as a tool for teaching students

about general scientific practices.

 Another study conducted by Bush et al. determined that teachers generally find EdGCM

to be an effective educational tool.6 In particular, Bush et al. sent a survey to people who had

taught students using EdGCM to gather feedback about their experience with the software.6 The

respondents had a wide range of reasons and methods for using EdGCM in their classrooms, but

the survey results showed that most teachers who had used EdGCM with students believed that

doing so had improved the students’ understanding of climate science as well as their belief in

Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC).6 Although technical difficulties tarnished some

teachers’ view of the software, others pointed out that learning to deal with glitches and other

technical issues is a valuable part of students’ learning process.6 Taken together, the studies

conducted by Bhattacharya et al. and Bush et al. provide evidence in support of EdGCM both

from teachers’ perspective and based on objective student performance metrics. In addition, the

studies demonstrate the benefits of EdGCM for teaching students about general scientific

practices and about the specific topic of climate change.

While the studies conducted by Bhattacharya et al. and Bush et al. focus on what climate

models can teach students about climate science and the scientific method, it is also important for

students to learn how to evaluate claims about climate change and how to compare different

approaches for addressing the climate crisis. Ordinary citizens are confronted with a barrage of

climate-related news every day, and it is often difficult to identify the most reliable and important

parts. Climate education should help students navigate the range of claims made about climate

change by teaching them to understand the assumptions and uncertainty associated with each

climate prediction. Moreover, climate education should also help students begin to think about

what our societal response to climate change should look like on the individual and

governmental levels.
 Ideally, students should be able to think critically about how much faith we should place

in the predictions of a climate model and about how those predictions should inform our

response to climate change. For example, the climate model from Sunny et al.—which will be

discussed at length in Section IV—predicts that a climate tipping point will be reached in early

2022.2 This claim could be used to justify a wide variety of conclusions, ranging from “the 2022

tipping point wasn’t dire, so climate change is nothing to worry about” to “we must set aside all

other policy priorities to prevent this 2022 tipping point from being crossed.” However, a more

nuanced understanding of the paper reveals that the tipping point will only be crossed if carbon

dioxide levels exceed a certain threshold level and the climate variables continue changing at

their current rate.2 Furthermore, the sort of tipping point discussed in the paper has occurred

numerous times in previous years and is dangerous in the sense that unchecked increases in

atmospheric carbon dioxide are dangerous, not in the sense that crossing this particular tipping

point will bring about the end of humanity.2 All in all, by examining the model more closely we

gain a better understanding of what its predictions mean and of what we must do to prevent the

worst predictions from being realized. One of the central goals of climate education should be

teaching students to evaluate climate predictions in this manner.

Before moving on to examine a particular climate model and how it can be adapted for

educational purposes, I will summarize the benefits and challenges of using climate models in

the classroom. Giving students the opportunity to interact with these models in much the same

way as researchers do will help them gain a better understanding of the interconnectedness of the

variables of Earth’s climate system. However, a significant amount of classroom time is needed

to get students started working with the models, and some teachers find that this time would be

better spent teaching course content.6 While minimizing the time spent on technical issues is
certainly appealing, I argue that there is something to be learned from working through these

technical difficulties. Another challenge associated with using climate models in classrooms is

that students will not be able to understand every aspect of the models; consequently, the user

interfaces must highlight the components that students are meant to understand while keeping

everything else packaged neatly in a “black box” to avoid distracting attention from the key

components. In Section V, I will explore some considerations that go into selecting which

components of the model to preserve for students and which to cover up. While there are

undoubtedly challenges to be faced with implementing climate models in a classroom setting, the

educational benefits of letting students interact with simulations just as scientists do far outweigh

the costs.

IV. Modeling Climate Tipping Points

Before we can explore the process of converting a research-grade climate model into an

educational tool, it will be helpful to first look at a specific example of a mathematical climate

model. In this section, I will explore the model for climate tipping points presented in Sunny et

al.2 This model seeks to understand tipping points in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by

appealing to the two major types of tipping points: bifurcation-induced tipping points, which

arise from changes in the external system, and noise-induced tipping points, which arise from

internal fluctuations within the system.2,9 In particular, Sunny et al. consider bifurcation-induced

tipping caused by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as well as noise-induced tipping

caused by instability owing to rapid changes in system parameters.2

Sunny et al.’s climate model is built on the logistic growth equation, which models

population growth in a wide range of applications. The general form of the equation is
 𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡 (
= 𝑟𝑃 1 −
𝑃
𝐾 )
where 𝑃 represents the variable undergoing growth, 𝑟 represents the rate of growth, and 𝐾

represents the carrying capacity (the largest possible value of 𝑃 that can be maintained for an

extended period of time).13 For Sunny et al.’s climate model, 𝑃 is replaced with 𝑁, the amount of

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from fossil fuels, and the rate of growth and carrying capacity

both become functions of time, 𝑟(𝑡) and 𝐾(𝑡).2 They also add an extra term 𝐴0(𝑡) to the logistic

growth equation to account for the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere,

which is known as the carbon sink.2 This leads to the following differential equation:2

𝑑𝑁
𝑑𝑡
= 𝐴0(𝑡) + 𝑟(𝑡)𝑁 1 −( 𝑁
𝐾(𝑡) )
For this particular climate model, Sunny et al. assumed that changes in the carbon sink 𝐴0(𝑡),

rate of growth 𝑟(𝑡), and carrying capacity 𝐾(𝑡) are governed by changes in another function λ(𝑡)

according to 𝐴0(𝑡) = 𝑎0 + 𝑎1λ(𝑡), 𝑟(𝑡) = 𝑟0 + 𝑟1λ(𝑡), and 𝐾(𝑡) = 𝑘0 + 𝑘1λ(𝑡).2 λ(𝑡) is an

arctangent function, which starts at one constant value, then grows smoothly (at rate µ) to a new

value, then remains constant at that new value.2 A system modeled in this way will undergo

periods of growth during which the carbon dioxide levels increase while 𝐴0, 𝑟, and λ remain

roughly constant.2 Transition periods for the system occur when a period of growth is followed

by a change in 𝐴0, 𝑟, and 𝐾 and then by another period of growth.2 A diagram depicting the

qualitative features of periods of growth and transition periods is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: A period of growth occurs when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels N(t) increase while

the parameters r(t), K(t), and A0(t) remain approximately constant, as happens twice in the lower

panel. A transition period occurs when two periods of growth are separated by a change in r(t),

K(t), and A0(t). Diagram based on Figure 2 from Sunny et al.2

Equipped with this model and terminology, we can study the system’s stable equilibrium

states and solve for the critical value of µ at which the system can transition to a new equilibrium

state.2 Sunny et al. demonstrate that in order for the transition to occur, the rate of change in

system parameters µ must exceed the critical rate µ𝑐 and the initial conditions must fall within a

so-called “basin of attraction.”2 Therefore, even if the rate of change of parameters exceeds the

critical value, it is possible to prevent the system from transitioning to a new equilibrium state by

ensuring that the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 𝑁 remain below some threshold level
𝑁𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.2 To calculate the critical values µ𝑐 and 𝑁𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛, Sunny et al. examine saddle-saddle

connections in solutions to the differential equation discussed above.2

To check the validity of their model, Sunny et al. used it to “predict” past events and

verified that the transition years identified by the model aligned with trends in historic carbon

dioxide emission data.2 For example, the model predicts a transition point being reached in 1999,

which coincides with documented changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and a

known “biological regime shift” in 2000-2001.2 When the model was used to predict future

trends, they found that the next transition could occur in early 2022 and calculated the associated

critical values µ𝑐 and 𝑁𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.2 The latter value, 𝑁𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛, is of particular interest because it

tells us how low we must keep carbon dioxide emissions to prevent a transition given that it is

not practical to keep µ under its critical value (µ𝑐 = 0. 802, but current values of µ are an order

of magnitude larger).2 Because the methods for calculating these critical values are far more

advanced than will be relevant for middle or high school students, I refer the interested reader to

Sunny et al. for further information.

V. Educational Climate Models: A Case Study

Now that I have outlined the basic features of Sunny et al.’s climate model, I will take a

step back and consider how we might go about converting it into an educational tool. In the next

paragraphs, I will approach Sunny et al.’s model from an educator’s perspective and evaluate

which parts are worth teaching to students and which can be glossed over to avoid confusion. My

goal here is not to conclusively show that this is the only reasonable way to teach the climate

model, but rather to highlight some important considerations that go into adapting a climate

model for educational purposes.

 The logistic growth equation, which is the foundation of the climate model, is frequently

taught in calculus courses as an example of a simple differential equation.14 Advanced high

school students could easily understand this equation, while younger students could grasp the

𝑑𝑃 ∆𝑃 𝑃𝑓−𝑃𝑖
underlying concepts if the derivative 𝑑𝑡
were replaced with a ratio of differences ∆𝑡
= 𝑡𝑓−𝑡𝑖
.

Moreover, the logistic growth equation is closely related to the exponential growth equation,

which students are very likely to have seen in a math class. Since the logistic growth equation is

the key ingredient to Sunny et al.’s model and is relatively accessible to students, it should not be

glossed over when teaching the model. Students should also be able to understand the carbon

sink, carrying capacity, and rate of growth, since these three parameters are conceptually

important but not particularly difficult to grasp.

However, the approach to modeling the carbon sink, carrying capacity, and rate of growth

by introducing a new function λ(𝑡) might be confusing for students and does not add much to

their overall understanding of the Earth’s climate system. It would be best to skip over this detail

of the modeling technique as well as the exact methods for identifying critical points to avoid

creating confusion and instead allow students to focus on the most important features of the

climate model. In particular, we should teach students about the two kinds of tipping,

rate-induced and bifurcation-induced, as well as the notion of a critical value. Critical values

come up in many different fields of math and science, and the distinction between external

forcing and internal variability is also a common theme. Therefore, these concepts would serve

students well in fields beyond climate science. In the context of Sunny et al.’s model, students

could learn that the Earth’s climate system can transition to a new state only when both the rate

of evolution and the carbon dioxide levels themselves exceed critical values. This knowledge

would enable students to see the interconnectedness of various climate variables and would help
them begin to consider what sort of information the model might give us about what must be

done to slow climate change.

After teaching students the basics of this climate model, the most important part of the

learning process will be setting them free to experiment with its predictions on their own. The

creators of the educational climate model would need to provide an accessible user interface for

students. Ideally, students would be able to use this interface to run simulations and explore what

the evolution of Earth’s climate might look like under various initial conditions and assumptions

about future carbon dioxide emissions. This experience would help students recognize the

complexity of Earth’s climate system and get a feel for how working scientists arrive at climate

predictions. Students might also be able to formulate arguments for how the predictions of these

models should inform our response to global warming on the individual and governmental levels.

For example, students could think about how much trust should be placed in the models given

the assumptions implicit in them and then evaluate how emissions must change to avoid the

worst-case scenario outcomes given the models’ predictions.

In the preceding paragraphs, I outlined one possible approach to teaching students about

climate change using the climate model presented in Sunny et al. I tried to point out along the

way some of the considerations that go into converting a research-grade climate model into an

educational tool. I will now summarize and analyze the most important considerations further.

First, when constructing the educational climate model we made sure to preserve

concepts that are important for understanding climate change even when we chose to omit some

of the mathematical details. Concepts such as the carrying capacity, carbon sink, and rate of

growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide might plausibly be taught in any climate science

class—even one that did not use climate models. However, letting students experiment with
climate models for themselves will help them gain intuition for how these parameters change

under different initial conditions or under different assumptions about future carbon dioxide

emissions. Students are much more likely to understand these concepts after working with them

firsthand in the context of an educational climate model.

Next, we made sure to include the logistic growth equation when teaching the model

because students are likely to have seen this equation or a related growth equation in their math

classes. One benefit of using climate models for education is that these models provide an

opportunity to apply abstract material from other school subjects to the real world. Students

frequently complain that they do not see the purpose of the material taught in their math classes.

Demonstrating the relevance of abstract mathematical techniques to climate modeling can help

students recognize the importance of their math classes. This phenomenon extends beyond the

specific example of the logistic growth equation and mathematics; indeed, climate models can

serve as an application of abstract topics from virtually any science class as well as data analysis,

programming, statistics, and more. For this reason, a significant benefit of educational climate

models is that they help students apply and appreciate concepts from traditional school subjects.

In summary, climate models are an effective educational tool for two reasons. First, they

enable students to gain a more thorough understanding of climate science than would have been

possible with non-model-based teaching strategies. Second, they help students relate course

material from a range of classes to an important problem facing the world today. It is

unsurprising that this effective method for teaching students about climate change is

interdisciplinary; after all, the study of climate change and our response to the climate crisis must

also draw on a range of fields. Educational climate models can help prepare the next generation

to strive toward a more sustainable world by enabling students to recognize how concepts from a
variety of disciplines can come together to shed light on an effective response to the climate

crisis.

VI. Conclusion

Scientists agree that global warming poses a significant threat to humanity and that we

must act quickly to reduce emissions and avoid the worst possible outcomes. The sort of global

cooperation required to address the climate crisis is only possible when everyone shares a basic

understanding of the problem at hand and of how we can go about solving it. One of the most

significant barriers to this cooperation is the lingering resistance to science that leads many

people to deny the severity of climate change. In part, people may view climate science as being

unnecessarily complicated or even elitist. Climate education is therefore an important component

of our response to the climate crisis because it will help people recognize why climate change is

such an urgent threat.

Schools are a natural place to start improving climate education because it is easy to

reach nearly all young people in this way. While there are many sensible approaches to climate

education, I argue that educational climate models are a particularly useful strategy because they

give students hands-on experience exploring what lies ahead for our planet in much the same

way as working scientists. Moreover, educational climate models can benefit students’ learning

in subjects outside of climate science because these models give students the opportunity to see

how content from different academic disciplines can come together to address a real-world issue.

Given the many benefits of educational climate models, it is natural to wonder why they

have not been implemented more broadly. EdGCM, which is one of the most popular educational

climate models, has been used at only 150 institutions, which is a tiny number in comparison to
the thousands of schools that exist in the United States alone.6 This low adoption rate is

unsurprising because implementing educational climate models requires a significant amount of

classroom time, which often comes at the expense of other modules in existing curriculums. To

increase the number of students who can benefit from interacting with these climate models,

further research should be done on how to make educational climate models as easy for students

and teachers to use as possible. It would also be helpful to prepare teaching guides to help

instructors determine how best to integrate educational climate models into their curriculums

without losing other important content. For example, future studies may identify concepts from

existing curriculums that can be taught through models, thereby reducing the need to carve out

additional classroom time. I believe that making it simple for teachers to incorporate educational

climate models into existing curriculums would help increase the adoption of these innovative

teaching methods.

As I have argued, educational climate models are a promising tool for improving

students’ understanding of climate science and provide a valuable opportunity to highlight the

real-world applications of a variety of school subjects. These educational benefits are extremely

important because today’s students will be tasked with leading the effort to slow climate change

in the pivotal years and decades to come. An effective response to the climate crisis requires a

shared understanding of how the climate is changing and of what we can do to address it. To this

end, educational climate models are a valuable tool for fighting the climate crisis because they

help build consensus around the importance of climate action, which will ultimately make it

much easier for us to move toward a more sustainable society.

References:

1. Schneider SH. Climate Modeling. Scientific American. 1987;256(5):72-T9.

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