Chapter 3 Probability

Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event. The value is expressed from zero to one. Probability has been introduced in
Maths to predict how likely events are to happen. The meaning of probability is basically the
extent to which something is likely to happen.

The probability of a specified event is the chance or likelihood that it will occur. If you roll a die,
pick a card from a deck of playing cards, or randomly select a person and observe their hair
color, we are executing an experiment or procedure. In probability, we look at the likelihood of
different outcomes.

More professionally, the probability is a function that satisfies three rules:

P (A) is always a nonnegative real number, between 0 and 1 inclusive.

P (ø)=0 and P (S)= 1, where ø and S are empty and the entire sample space sets.

P is (countably) additive, meaning that if A1 , A2 , …, An is a finite or countable sequence

of disjoint events, then P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ …..∪ An )= P(A1 ) +P (A2 )+ …+ P(An )

The additivity property for two and three disjoint sets are as follows.

P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B) if A∩B=ø

P(A∪B∪C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C) if A∩B=ø, A∩C=ø, B∩C=ø

The following are the straightforward results of the additivity property of a probability.

Subadditivity property. Let A and B be two subsets of S. Then P(A∪B) ≤ P(A)+P(B)

Monotonicity property Let A and B be two subsets of S and A⊆ B. Then P(A) ≤ P(B)

Sample Space
To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we should know the total number of
possible outcomes.

Example 1. Sample space of tossing a die is S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here, n(S)=6.

Example 2. Sample space of tossing a die and a coin is S= {1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 1T, 2T, 3T, 4T,
5T, 6T}. So, n(S)=12. We can also display our sample space by
S= {(1, H), (2, H), …, (6, H), (1, T), (2, T), …, (6, T)}.
Example 3. The sample space of tossing two dice is:
S= {(1, 1), (1, 2), …, (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), …, (2, 6), …, (6, 1), (6, 2), …, (6, 6)}.
In this case n(S)=36.

Example 4. The sample space of tossing three coins is:

S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}. So, n(S)=8.

Example 5. Sample space that describes all three-child families according to the genders of the
children with respect to birth order is S= {bbb, bbg, bgb, gbb, bgg, gbg, ggb, ggg}, where b and g
stands for boy and girl. So, n(S)=8.

Example 6. Suppose we flip three fair coins in a row but care only about the number of heads
that result. Then S= {0, 1, 2, 3}. However, the probabilities of these four outcomes are not all
1 3
equally likely. We will see later that in fact P(0)= P(3)= 8, while P(1)= P(2)= 8.

Example 7. In choosing a number randomly between the numbers 0 and 3, the sample space is
S= {x| 0≤ x ≤ 3} or S= [0, 3].

Example 8. In choosing two numbers randomly between the numbers 0 and 1, the sample
space is S= {(x, y) | 0≤ x ≤ 1 and 0≤ y ≤ 1} or S= unit square in the plane.

Probability of Complement P (Ac )

Theorem: Let A⊆S. Then P (𝐀𝐜 ) = 1- P(A).

𝑛(Ac ) 𝑛(S)−𝑛(A) n(A)

Proof: P (Ac )= = = 1- = 1- P(A)
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛(𝑆) n(S)

Example1: If A and B are two events with P(A∩B) = 0.2 what is the P (Ac ∪ Bc)?
Answer: According to De Morgan law’s and complement probability rule we see

P (Ac ∪ B c)= P ((A ∩ B)c)= 1- P(A∩B) = 1- 0.2= 0.8

Example2: In a three-child family what is the probability of having at least one girl?
Answer: Event A of having at least one girl means having one, two or three girls which is the
complement of the event that all the kids are boy. All the possibilities (Sample Space) are
S= {GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG, GBB, BGB, BBG, BBB}, where B and G stands for boy and girl
1 7
respectively. Now, P(A)= 1-P (Ac )= 1- =
8 8
Example3: In tossing three dies what is the probability of coming all dice on different
numbers?

Answer: The sample space (all outcomes) in this question is a set with 63 = 216 members. Now,
let A be the event of appearing different numbers on all sides which is a big number. The easier
approach is counting all the versions with the same numbers on all dice. This is a complement
of our favorable event but in fewer numbers. Obviously, Ac = {(1,1,1), …, (6,6,6)} which has only
6 35
6 members. Now, P(A)= 1-P (Ac )= 1- 216 = 36

Example4: In tossing two dies what is the probability of coming up those sides that their
sum is a number less than 11?

Answer: The sample space of tossing two dies has 62 = 36 outcomes. Let x and y be the number
of sides of our dies. So, the question asks the probability of the event A= {(x, y) | x + y <11}. A
simpler approach is computing the probability of the complement of this event which is the set
of all pairs that satisfy the equation x + y ≥ 11 or Ac = {(x, y) | x + y ≥ 11}. One can easily see that
3 11
Ac = {(5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}, therefore P(A)= 1-P (Ac )= 1- 36 = 12

Probability of Union P(A∪B)

Theorem: Let A and B be two subsets of S. Then P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B)- P(A∩B),

Moreover, for two disjoint sets (A∩B=ø) we have P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B).

n(A∪B) n(A)+n(B)−n(A∩B)
Proof: P(A∪B) = =
n(𝑆) n(𝑆)
n(A) n(B) n(A∩B)
= n(S) + - = P(A)+P(B)- P(A∩B)
n(S) n(S)

Conditional Probability P(A|B)

Given two events A and B with P (B)> 0, the conditional probability of A given B, written P(A|B),
stands for the fraction of the time that A occurs once we know that B occurs. It is computed as
the ratio of the probability that A and B both occur, divided by the probability that B occurs, as
follows.

𝐏(𝐀∩𝐁)
P(A|B) =
𝐏(𝐁)

Example1: What is the probability of the first coin landing on tails when we already know that
the other two coins came up heads in a three-coin toss?
Answer: Let A= {First coin comes up on tail} and B= {Two Heads appear}. Evidently,
A= {THH, THT, TTH, TTT} and B= {THH, HTH, HHT}. Since A∩B= {THH} hence,
n(A∩B)
P(A∩B) n(S) n(A∩B) 1
P(A|B) = = n(B) = =3
P(B) n(B)
n(S)

Example2: What is the probability of both dice showing even numbers when two dice are
tossed, given that their sum is 8?

Answer: Let A= {coming dies on even number} and B= {summation of sides is 8}. We start with
the set B which is B= {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}. Since for computing the conditional
probability, we need to know the members of A∩B, regard to the hypothesis, the set is
A∩B= {(2, 6), (4, 4), (6, 2)}. Now,

P(A∩B) n(A∩B) 3
P(A|B) = P(B)
= n(B)
=5

Example3: What is the probability of having the first two children be boys in a four-child family
when we know the third child is a girl?

Let A be the event of the first two kids born in boy and B be the event of the third child be a girl.
All the possibilities are 2*2*2*2=16 different cases. A= {BBBB, BBBG, BBGB, BBGG} and
B= {BBGB, BBGG, BGGB, BGGG, GBGG, GBGB, GGGB, GGGG}. Note that you can count the
number of set B very fast since by knowing the 3rd kid, which is girl, you have still three child
each has two options of being girl or boy so |B|=2*2*2=8. Now, A∩B= {BBGB, BBGG}, hence
P(A∩B) n(A∩B) 2
P(A|B) = = = 8 = 0.25
P(B) n(B)

Law of Total Probability:

If A1 , A2 , …, An is a partition of the sample space S, then for any event B we have

P(B)=P(B∩A1 )+ P(B∩A2 ) + … + P(B∩An )= P(A1 ) P(B|A1 ) + P(A2 ) P(B|A2 ) +…+ P(An ) P(B|An )

Example1: We have a box that has three sections each contain 100 marbles:
Section 1 has 75 red and 25 green balls, Section 2 has 60 red and 40 green balls, and Section 3
has 45 red and 55 green balls.
We choose one the sections at random and pick a ball from the chosen section, also at random.
What is the probability that the chosen ball is red?
Answer:
Let R be the event that the chosen ball is red. Let Si be the event that we choose Section i. We
already know that.
P(R|S1) =0.75
P(R|S2) =0.60
P(R|S3) =0.45
We choose our partition as S1, S2, S3. Using the law of total probability, we can write

P(R) =P(R|S1)P(S1)+P(R|S2)P(S2)+P(R|S3)P(S3)=
1 1 1
=(0.75) 3 +(0.60) 3 +(0.45) 3 =(0.75)13+(0.60)13+(0.45)13
=0.60

Independent Events
Two events are independent if P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B), otherwise they are called dependent.

P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B) ⇒ A and B are independent

Note: If two events are independent then P(A|B) = P(A) & P(B|A) =P(B)

P(A∩B) P(A) P(B) P(B∩A) P(A) P(B)

Because P(A|B) = = = P(A) and P(B|A) = = = P(B)
P(B) P(B) P(A) P(A)

Example1: We choose a number from {1, 2, …, 10} randomly. Let A be the event that that
number is less than 7 and let B be the event that number is an even number. Are A and B
independent?

Answer: A= {1, 2, …., 6} and B= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} and A∩B= {2, 4, 6} but P(A)=0.6 P(B)=0.5 and
P(A∩B) = 0.3. Since P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B), hence A and B are independent.

Some questions
Question 1:
a. If a coin is tossed two times, describe the sample space.
b. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
c. Find the probability of getting at least one head.
d. Find the probability of getting exactly one head.

Answer: a. The sample space is S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

n(A) 1
b. Let A= get exactly two heads so A= {HH} So P(A)= = = 0.25
n(S) 4
c. Let B= get at least one head so it means appearing one or two coins. More explicitly, B= {HH,
n(B) 3
HT, TH} So P(B)= n(S) = 4 = 0.75

n(C) 2
d. Let C= get exactly one head, it means C= {HT, TH}. Hence P(C)= n(S) = 4 = 0.5

Question 2:
a. If a coin is tossed and a single six-sided die is rolled, describe the sample space.
b. Find the probability of getting heads and an even number.
c. Find the probability of getting heads and a number greater than 4
d. Find the probability of getting tails and an odd number.

Answer:

a. S= {(H, 1), (H, 2), …, (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), …, (T, 6)} so, n(S)=12.
n(A)
b. Let A= getting heads and an even number, or A= {(H, 2), (H, 4), (H, 6)}. Hence P(A)= =
n(S)
3
= 0.25
12
c. Let B= getting heads and a number greater than 4 it means that dice comes on 5 or 6.
n(B) 2 1
More explicitly, B= {(H, 5), (H, 6)} So P(B)= n(S) = 12 = 6
d. Let C= get tails and an even number. it means that dice come on 5 or 6. More explicitly,
n(C) 3 1
C= {(T, 1), (T, 3), (T, 5)} So P(C)= n(S) = 12 = 4 = 0.25

Question 3:
If a card is drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck, find the probability of:
a. drawing a king
b. drawing a face card
c. drawing a card that is not a face card.

Answer: The sample space is all the 52-card. Hence n(S)=52.

n(A)
a. Let A= appearing a king. We have 4 different kings so n(A)=4 and therefore P(A)= =
n(S)
4
= 0.07
52
b. Let B= appearing a face. 4 types of cards each has a king, a queen, and a solder as faces,
n(B) 12
hence n(A)= 4*3= 12. Consequently P(B)= n(S) = 52 = 0.21
c. Let C be drawing a non face card. Based on the part b, C= B c so, P(C)= P(B c)= 1-P(B).
12 40
Hence P(C)= 1- 52 = 52 = 0.76

Question 4:
If a card is drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck, find the probability of:
a. drawing a heart
b. drawing a heart or a spade
c. drawing a card that is a heart, a diamond, or a spade.

Answer: Let A= draw a heart, B= draw a spade, and C= draw a diamond. Then

n(A) 13 1
a. P(A)= n(S) = 52 = 4 = 0.25
n(A∪B) 26
b. Part b. needs P(A∪B), which is P(A∪B) = = =0.5
n(S) 52
n(A∪B∪C) 39
c. Part c. need P(A∪B∪C) which is P(A∪B∪C) = = 52 =0.75
n(S)

Question:
A ball is drawn randomly from an urn that contains 8 balls - five red, two white, and one yellow.
Find the probability that:
a. a red ball is chosen
b. a yellow ball is not chosen
c. a green ball is chosen.

Question:
A ball is drawn randomly from an urn that contains 8 balls - five red, two white, and one yellow.
Find the probability that:
a. the ball drawn is neither yellow nor white
b. the ball drawn is either white, yellow, or red
c. the ball chosen is not white.

Question:
A drawer contains 18 socks of which 6 are red, 4 are white and 8 are black.
a. If one sock is drawn at random from the drawer, what is the probability that it is red?
b. If one red sock is drawn with the first choice, what is the probability that the next sock
drawn is also red?

Question:
A poker hand is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 cards.
a. Find the probability of getting five hearts.
b. Find the probability of getting five cards of the same suit.
c. Find the probability of getting five face cards.
d. Find the probability of getting ace, king, queen, jack, and ten of the same suits.

Question:
If a pair of standard six-sided dice are rolled, what is the probability of:
a. rolling a 7
b. rolling a 9
c. rolling doubles (the same number on each die)
d. not rolling doubles
e. rolling 9 or higher.

Question:
An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability that:
a. the coin lands heads five times
b. the coin lands heads exactly once
c. the coin lands heads at least once.

Exercises
Question: When rolling a single, six-sided die, find the probability of:
a. rolling a six
b. rolling an even number
c. rolling a number greater than 5

Question: When rolling a single, six-sided die, find the probability of:
a. rolling a two or a three
b. rolling an odd number
c. rolling a number divisible by three.

Question: Two cards are drawn without replacement from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability that:
a. a pair is drawn
b. a pair is not drawn
c. two black cards are drawn
d. two cards of the same suit are drawn.

Question: A jar contains three yellow balls and five red balls. If four balls are drawn at random
(without replacement), find the probability that:
a. two of the balls are yellow and two are red
b. all of the balls are red
c. exactly three of the balls are red
d. two or three of the balls are yellow.

Question: Assume that the probability of a boy being born is the same as the probability of a
girl being born. Find the probability that a family with three children will have:
a. two boys and one girl
b. at least one girl
c. no boys
d. the two oldest children are girls.

Question: An exam consists of ten True-or-False questions. If a student guesses at every

answer, what is the probability that he or she will answer exactly six questions correctly?
Question: A law firm employs 14 lawyers, 8 of whom are partners in the firm. If a group of 3
lawyers is chosen at random to attend a conference, what is the probability that 3 partners will
be selected?

Question: In a lot of 24 computer components, there are four defective components. If two of
the components are chosen at random, what is the probability that:
a. both components are defective?
b. at least one of the components is defective?

Question: A barrel of 60 apples contains 4 rotten apples. If 3 apples are selected at random,
what is the probability that 1 or more of the apples is rotten?

Question: A shelf at the home improvement store contains 80 light bulbs of which 6 are
defective. If a customer chooses 2 light bulbs at random, what is the probability that:
a. both are defective?
b. at least one is defective?

Question: Some computer components are shipped in boxes of 24. Before they are shipped,
the quality control inspector randomly chooses 8 components from each box. If any of the 8
components selected are defective, the box is not shipped. What is the probability that a lot
containing exactly 2 defective components would be shipped anyway?

Question: A business is preparing to choose 12 people to go on a business trip from a group of

100 employees, 60 of whom are women and 40 of whom are men. Suppose that Ed and Mary
are both employees and that the 12 people for the trip will be chosen randomly.
a. What is the probability that Ed will be chosen?
b. What is the probability that Ed and Mary will both be chosen?
c. If an equal number of men and women are to go on the trip, what is the probability that Ed
will be chosen?
d. If an equal number of men and women are to go on the trip, what is the probability that Ed
and Mary will both be chosen?

Question: A company has 50 sales representatives on staff. There are three sales calls that must
be made on the east side of town and five sales calls on the west side. If the sales reps are
chosen at random for these eight sales calls:
a. What is the probability that an individual sales rep will be chosen for any of the eight sales
calls?
b. What is the probability that two sales reps will be selected to make their sales calls on the
same side of town?

Question: A student studying for a test knows how to do 12 of the 20 problems from the study
guide. If the test contains 10 problems chosen at random from the study guide, what is the
probability that at least 8 of the problems on the test are problems the student knows how to
solve?