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BA40 Assignment 2 - SES

Using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.40, the forecast for website visits to Alphabet, Inc.'s Arizona State website in month 13 is 511.68 visits. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is 66.67, the mean squared error (MSE) is 5,846.43, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 13.23%. Using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.10, the forecast for warm-up sales at EXO-BTS fashion boutique in month 12 is 43.13 units.

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Xyzha Margaux Ortega
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50 views2 pages

BA40 Assignment 2 - SES

Using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.40, the forecast for website visits to Alphabet, Inc.'s Arizona State website in month 13 is 511.68 visits. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is 66.67, the mean squared error (MSE) is 5,846.43, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 13.23%. Using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.10, the forecast for warm-up sales at EXO-BTS fashion boutique in month 12 is 43.13 units.

Uploaded by

Xyzha Margaux Ortega
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Central | Mindanao | University

BA40: Management Science

NAME: Ortega, Xyzha Margaux C.

Assignment: Forecasting (Exponential Smoothing)


and Forecast Accuracy

Instruction: Using simple exponential smoothing, compute for the forecasted visits for month
13 using the values of α = 0.40 and compute for the MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Round off your
answers in two decimal places.

Problem 1: The following are data from Alphabet, Inc. regarding the number of visits in their
website at Arizona State.

Actual Absolute Squared


Forecast Absolute Value of
Month Website Forecast Forecast Forecast
Error Percentage Error
Visits Error Error
1 426
2 555 426.00 129.00 129.00 16,641.00 23.24
3 410 477.60 (67.60) 67.60 4,569.76 16.49
4 542 450.56 91.44 91.44 8,361.27 16.87
5 581 487.14 93.86 93.86 8,810.45 16.16
6 579 524.68 54.32 54.32 2,950.49 9.38
7 546.41 (118.41 118.41 14,020.68 27.67
428 )
8 444 499.05 (55.05) 55.05 3,029.99 12.40
9 540 477.03 62.97 62.97 3,965.57 11.66
10 495 502.22 (7.22) 7.22 52.08 1.46
11 488 499.33 (11.33) 11.33 128.36 2.32
12 537 494.80 42.20 42.20 1,781.02 7.86
13 511.68

a) MAD = 66.67
b) MSE = 5,846.43
c) MAPE = 13.23%

Problem 2: The table below shows the warm-up sales for EXO-BTS fashion boutique. Using the
smoothing constant of α = 0.10, forecast the 12 th month sales using Simple Exponential
Smoothing (SES) provided that the forecast for the 1st month is 42.67.

2020 sales
Month Forecast
data
1 38 42.67
2 41 42.20
3 40 42.08
4 45 41.87
5 50 42.19
6 42 42.97
7 43 42.87
8 40 42.88
9 45 42.60
10 47 42.84
11 42 43.25
12 43.13

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