ACTUAL SHED
MONTH
SALES
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16
May 19
June 23
July 26
August 30
September 28
October 18
November 16
December 14
FORECAST BY NAÏVE APPROACH
January next year 14
ACTUAL SHED
MONTH
SALES
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16
May 19
June 23
July 26
August 30
September 28
October 18
November 16
December 14
FORECAST BY MA 3 PERIODS FORECAST BY MA 4 PERIODS
January next year 16 January next year 19
FORECAST BY MA 5 PERIODS
January next year 21
ACTUAL SHED
MONTH
SALES
January 10
February 12 Weighted
March 13 moving
April
May
16
19
average
June 23
July 26
August 30
September 28
October 18
November 16
December 14
FORECAST BY WMA 3 PERIODS (5; 3; 2) FORECAST BY WMA 4 PERIODS (4;3;2;1)
January next year 15.4 January next year 16.8
FORECAST BY WMA 5 PERIODS (3;3;2;1;1)
January next year 18.4
Case 1
Ft = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 – Ft –
F(t-1) 142
A(t-1) 153
Alpha 0.2
F(t) 144.2
Case 2 Innitial guess = 175
ACTUAL TONNAGE
QUARTER Forecast
UNLOADED
1 180 175.0
2 168 176.0
3 159 174.4
4 175 171.3
5 190 172.1
6 205 175.6
7 180 181.5
8 182 181.2
FORECAST OF QUARTER-9 BY SES
9 181.4
–1 + a(At – 1 – Ft – 1)
The firm assumes the initial forecast average for month-1 (F1) was 11 units and the trend over that periode (T1) was
Forecast with
Alpha = 0.2 Beta = 0.4
SMOOTHED FORECAST
MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND SMOOTHED TREND, Tt
AVERAGE, Ft
1 12 11.000 2.000
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24
6 21
7 31
8 28
9 36
10 —
d over that periode (T1) was 2 units
Ft = a(At - 1) + (1 - a)(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
FORECAST INCLUDING
TREND, FITt
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
+ Tt - 1 )
Year (x) Demand (y)
1 74
2 79
^
3
4
80
90 y = a + bx
5 105
6 142
7 122
8 141.002
9 151.538
Chart Title
160
140
120 f(x) = 10.5357142857143 x + 56.7142857142857
R² = 0.80086321136715
105
100
90
80 79 80
74
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chart Title
142
7143 x + 56.7142857142857 122
715
105
90
80
3 4 5 6 7 8
DEMAND
MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 AVERAGE YEARLY
DEMAND
Jan 80 85 105 90
Feb 70 85 85 80
Mar 80 93 82 85
Apr 90 95 115 100
May 113 125 131 123
June 110 115 120 115
July 100 102 113 105
Aug 88 102 110 100
Sept 85 90 95 90
Oct 77 78 85 80
Nov 75 82 83 80
Dec 82 78 80 80
Estimation for Next year's demand = 1200
Monthly forecast for next year:
MONTH YEAR 4
Jan 95.7
Feb 85.1
Mar 90.4
Apr 106.4
May 130.9
June 122.3
July 111.7
Aug 106.4
Sept 95.7
Oct 85.1
Nov 85.1
Dec 85.1
AVERAGE MONTHLY SEASONAL INDEX
DEMAND
94 0.957
94 0.851
94 0.904
94 1.064
94 1.309
94 1.223
94 1.117
94 1.064
94 0.957
94 0.851
94 0.851
94 0.851
Evaluating which alpha should be used (alpha = 0.1 or alpha = 0.5)
Innitial guess = 175
ACTUAL TONNAGE ROUNDED FORECAST ROUNDED FORECAST
QUARTER
UNLOADED WITH ALPHA = 0.1 WITH ALPHA = 0.5
1 180 175.0 175.0
2 168 175.5 177.5
3 159 174.8 172.8
4 175 173.2 165.9
5 190 173.4 170.4
6 205 175.0 180.2
7 180 178.0 192.6
8 182 178.2 186.3
Error (alpha = 0,1) Error (alpha = 0,5) AD (alpha = 0,1)
5.00 5.00 5
-7.50 -9.50 7.5
-15.75 -13.75 15.75
1.82 9.13 1.82499999999999
16.64 19.56 16.6425
29.98 24.78 29.97825
1.98 -12.61 1.98042499999997
3.78 -4.30 3.78238249999998
10.3073196875
Error (alpha = 0,1) Error (alpha = 0,5)
5.00 5.00 2.78%
-7.50 -9.50 4.46%
-15.75 -13.75 9.91%
1.82 9.13 1.04%
16.64 19.56 8.76%
29.98 24.78 14.62%
1.98 -12.61 1.10%
3.78 -4.30 2.08%
5.59%
AD (alpha = 0,5) MSE (alpha = 0,1) MSE (alpha 0,5)
5 25.00 25.00
9.5 56.25 90.25
13.75 248.06 189.06
9.125 3.33 83.27
19.5625 276.97 382.69
24.78125 898.70 614.11
12.609375 3.92 159.00
4.3046875 14.31 18.53
12.3291015625 190.82 195.24
2.78%
5.65%
8.65%
5.21%
10.30%
12.09%
7.01%
2.37%
6.76%
