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ICT Mentorship Core Content

- Month 05 -
1- Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges
2- Open Float
3- Using IPDA Data Ranges
4- Defining Open Float Liquidity Pools
5- Defining Institutional Swing Points
6- Using 10 year note In HTF Analysis
7- Qualifying Trade Conditions With 10 year Yield
8- Interest Rate Differentials
9- How To Use Intermarket Analysis
10- How To Use Bullish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis
11- How To Use Bearish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis
12- Ideal Seasonal Tendencies
13- Money Mangment
14- Defining HTF PD Arrays
15- Trade Conditions & Setup Progression
16- Stop Entry Techniques For Long Term Traders
17- Limit Order Entry Techniques For Long Term Traders
18- Position Trade Mangment
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Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges

macro analysis and this teaching is quarterly shifts and epta data ranges the
quarterly Market shift okay if there is an algorithm if our belief is that there is a
automated price delivery engine that takes care of providing efficiency in the
delivery of price the efficiency of trading at every potential trading price
available per asset we're going to be dealing specifically with Forex for this
01:08
teaching but the effect of a quarterly Market shift is in Universal and all asset
classes but I want to ask you a question just for a moment try to imagine the
world as investing if it were all completely random if the market in fact was
random how could anyone reasonably have an edge think about it statistics
really what is it you're still counting the odds of something that's already
happening and attributing that to some future unseen event so there's no
guarantee that just if the markets were completely
01:52
random if we had based our system if our analysis concepts are based on the
the effects of Randomness in the marketplace we're left with the conclusion
that yes things may have happened 50 times as their last 60 times and
therefore an edge could be a defined but that does not equate to Future
events that have not been seen yet that's the falsehood of teaching the idea
that the markets are completely random if the markets were in fact completely
random I myself would never have an interest in them because I would have
new trust in the
02:35
fact that there was any measure of prognostication that would fulfill a
profitable condition as an outcome my belief is that the markets are 100
percent engineered they're absolutely controlled to the very pip in the Foreign
Exchange Market I've proven many times in the past over many years how we
can call specific price levels to the PIP sometimes it varies a little bit many
times going right to the PIP as an exit or a Target and my opinion about that is
if I can do that multiple times throughout the year
03:18
that in itself regardless of what I believe I'm going to be able to communicate
to you from my understanding about the marketplace if I could do that to me
that proves that there is in fact zero Randomness to the marketplace because
 3

if it was Randomness I could not be that precise about my forecasts and

where I believe the market was going to go going to go if we understand and
can agree that the markets do in fact have a element of control and this is in
the form of a price engine algorithm at the Central Bank level they set the
price
03:57
they allow the markets to move to a predefined range for the day for the most
part are sometimes that things may occur that they send the price outside of
the predetermined range but for the most part the interbank price delivery
algorithm or epta has data ranges that it works Within and by understanding
what those ranges are we can go into the marketplace with a pre determined
idea where the algorithm will do its work where is it pulling the information
from what dates what ranges and what specific highs and lows is the
algorithm
04:41
reaching to as a reference point that's what this teaching is going to talk about
specifically today I want to remind you and I've talked just briefly about this in
the free tutorial section as I was going through all of the teachings that I
provided for the online community as it trades the Foreign Exchange Market I
teach it there is a market structure shift that takes place every three to four
months and for the most part that's Universal doesn't apply just to the Foreign
Exchange Market but it does apply to all asset
05:13
classes this effect takes place because the market has to generate new
interest it has to have a new sense of urgency a missed opportunity is a lost
opportunity in many people's eyes as a Trader so the markets have a
tendency to move around and gyrate around every three to four months what
was true or what was seen as a directional movement in the marketplace over
the last two or three months may not in fact be true for the next coming two to
three or four months in Market Direction so I'm going to counsel you to always
05:52
look at price on a macro level it means a monthly weekly and daily time frame
and learn to anticipate intermediate price swings it doesn't matter if the market
is predisposed to go up on a primary bullish Market or a primary down Market
you can still fare it out rather significant intermediate term retracements in
either strong uptrends or down trends if you understand this component you'll
also be able to weather the Deep retracement sometimes in long-term
position trading that is required you'll
06:27
also understand that by understanding that there's intermediate term
retracements on these higher time frame levels and if you're a long-term
position Trader as this month is aimed at teaching you also have no problem
and no emotional commitment to not holding the position forever but in fact
taking some of the position off waiting for that retracement and then going
back in adding that same position you just took off or a portion of that position
off your long-term position trade and then adding it back in to
07:01
recapitalize on that further movement higher every three to four months
there's going to be a change in Direction it may cause a consolidation or it
may cause a retracement of whatever price swing has been unfolding up to
 4

that moment the fact that the market is in a primary uptrend or a downtrend
that's going to be the whether or not the market has a deep retracement on a
hard time frame basis or if it goes into consolidation if the Market's in a strong
uptrend many times you won't see much of a retracement but
07:37
you will see consolidation or trading range form and they'll capitalize new long
positions that way and then sometimes they'll take the market below a short-
term low on a daily chart and then send it higher after that that would be the
extent of any kind of retracement but either way I want you to look at the
marketplace there's always some intermediate term play to trade on every
three to four months on every asset class if the market you're looking at or
studying is in a significant range-bound environment
08:08
and look at a market that is potentially moving up to a new uptrend or
downtrend stage in its price action by doing so it will also get you in line with
potential long-term trends moving higher or lower respectively to what you
would be seeing in your charts we're going to talk a lot about that this month
but let's get into a little bit more nuts and bolts about how we can use if the
data ranges and the quarterly Market shift obviously my view on the
marketplace is if we can focus in on what the smart
08:41
money is doing with their money how are they allocating funds how are they
moving into the marketplace if we can mimic those characteristics in our own
trading uh hopefully the outcome should be we have high probability
conditions when we look at smart money accumulation for buy programs the
buy program is when the market goes through a series of successive days
sessions that are consecutive regardless of what time frame it is you can see
a buy program on a hourly chart you can see a buy program on a four hour
chart you see
09:15
a buy program on a daily and or weekly or monthly but the trading time frame
that we're using for this month is primarily the daily chart so if we're going to
be anticipating a buy program that means we're going to be expecting a series
of updates and it could last as long as several months it doesn't have to be a
few days but a few days up on the daily chart can still be considered a buy
program if it's reaching for a measure of liquidity that would be above the
recent Market highs when we're looking for smart money
09:54
accumulation for buy programs what we're essentially expecting is
manipulation in the underlying versus The Benchmark now what is the
underlying and what is the benchmark what we're going to be looking at again
specifically dealing with the Foreign Exchange Market for this teaching but we
will be talking about Commodities we will be talking about stocks and we'll be
talking about interest rate markets as well in the same venue that we're
teaching here but I want to keep the topics very concise about one asset class
at a time
10:24
to avoid any kind of confusion on you as a as a student but the manipulation
of the underlying the underlying is what you're actually trading and The
Benchmark is what you're measuring the potential manipulation or lack
 5

thereof for smart money accumulation for a buy program on a daily chart The
Benchmark is going to sometimes make a lower low while the underlying
makes a higher low this would indicate the strong buying pressure under the
underlying issue or in this case the currency that you're Trading
11:04
it's failing to make a lower low whereas The Benchmark would be making a
lower low it's showing relative strength so therefore you would expect a
measure of upside movement it's another scenario where smart money
accumulation for buy programs would come in the way is the underlying or the
currency that you're trading makes a lower low while The Benchmark makes a
lower high and this is for inverse correlated benchmarks to currency and I'll
give you an example for the point number two where it says Benchmark
makes lower low
11:48
underlying makes higher low in this case that statement could be true by
saying the dollar Index makes a lower low while the dollar again makes a
higher low that would be an accumulation by program the underlying or
currency that you're Trading makes a lower low but the Benchmark makes a
lower high in this case this would be true in the sense that if we were looking
at say The British pound USD makes a lower low while the dollar Index makes
a lower high what that would indicate is while the dollar was failing to make a
higher high
12:28
in respect to making a lower low in the British pound versus the US dollar it's
indicating that the pound is actually going under an old low to scoop up sell
side liquidity so therefore we would anticipate a turtle soup scenario on a daily
chart Benchmark makes higher high underlying makes higher low in this case
it's stating in a condition that would be the dollar making a higher high which
would look like relative strength for the dollar but the underlying or in this case
we'll use the pound dollar
13:05
makes a higher low that pound dollar should have made a lower low but it was
unwilling to make that lower low so therefore the relative strength is in the buy
side on pound versus dollar and the dollar is actually going above an old High
to take the buy stops above and on high and then reject we would look for a
turtle soup cell in the daily in that condition for smart money distribution for
cell programs we'll look at the four conditions we use for that again the
manipulation in the underlying versus The Benchmark is what we're
13:40
studying this is all relative to the Daily time frame only nothing less than a
daily chart The Benchmark makes a higher high while the underlying makes a
lower high in this case that would be the dollar making a higher high while the
underlying or in this case it would be the dollar yen makes a lower high that
would be a cell program we're showing heavy distribution in the dollar Yen
pair underlying makes a higher high while The Benchmark makes a higher
low this could be true in the sense that the pound dollar
14:23
makes a higher high while the dollar Index makes a higher low in this case
what it's implying is for instance if the underlying is the pound dollar and it
makes a higher high it's reaching above an old high to get the buy side
 6

liquidity for a turtle soup cell and the dollar Index is actually failing to make a
lower low so the underlying strength is in the dollar Index lastly for a sell
program on the daily chart The Benchmark makes a lower low while the
underlying makes a lower high in this case it would be the dollar
14:59
Index makes a lower low while the pound dollar makes a lower high the dollar
Index making a lower low while the pound making a lower high the pound
dollar while making a lower high showing relative weakness while The
Benchmark dollar Index makes that lower low it would look like the dollar
Index is breaking lower so therefore support broken is going to see
continuation go lower but in fact what's actually happening is the dollar Index
would be breaking the previous low to accumulate all the cell stops below an
15:33
old low while the pound dollar was unwilling to make a higher high because
it's already booked enough shorts and it's heavily under distribution we will be
seeing heavy selling in the pound dollar based on the relative weakness
because it was failing to make a higher high while the dollar Index made a
lower low all that said and it was probably a little bit confusing for you but I
gave you some Replacements but the rules are as they were explained just a
moment ago on the previous slide but you can see
16:06
everything set here we'll go through it briefly smart money accumulation for
buy programs we're specializing in the manipulation in the underlying versus
The Benchmark and that's seen in this sense that the dollar Index makes a
lower low while the dollar Swiss for example makes a higher low that would
be bullish for the dollar Swiss euro dollar makes a lower low while the dollar
Index makes a lower high that would be seen as bearishness for the dollar
and the bullishness for the euro dollar because
16:39
it went below an old low to scoop up the sell side liquidity and then you would
see a rejection or a turtle soup long the dollar Index makes a higher high and
the euro dollar makes a higher low and that would be relative strength for the
euro dollar and the move above the old high on the dollar Index would be a
turtle soup cell after running the buy stock liquidity and the smart money
distribution for cell programs again focusing on manipulation in the underlying
versus The Benchmark the dollar Index makes a
17:10
higher high at the same time the dollar Swiss would be making a lower high
that would be relative weakness in the dollar Swiss pair and the dollar Index
making a move of an old high would be a run on buy stock for a dollar and
then you would see rejection after that and looking for lower prices on dollar
Index a dollar Index and the dollar Swiss are closely correlated and just like
the dollar Swiss being close to Chloride to dollar Index so is dollar CAD when
oil is not an issue and dollar yen is also closely correlated to the dollar Index
17:47
positively or naturally correlated uh versus the euro dollar in the dollar Index
they're inversely correlated so that means whatever the euro dollar is doing
the option seeing in the dollar Index and this third example for the cell
program euro dollar makes a higher high while the dollar Index makes a
higher low a relative strength in the dollar Index and underlying weakness
 7

should be expected after euro dollar takes that old high out running out to buy
stock liquidity and the daily chart should see lower prices in that
18:19
condition uh dollar Index makes a lower low while the euro dollar makes a
lower high that's relative weakness in the euro dollar pair while the dollar
Index does in fact go below that lower low the dollar that's would be scooping
up the sell side liquidity below an old low and then rejection and trading higher
on the dollar Index thus pushing your dollar lower.
 8

the dollar Index is a monthly chart and what I did was outlined a full year
January to January and I want you to take a look
18:55
at the price swings in between all of these reference points vertically as you
can see there's a couple different Market shifts that take place and this is what
it looks like if you have it set up on every four months versus the last live
being every three months and I'll give you an example of seeing it again this is
your chart divided up on every three months and every four months and you
can still see it gives you a really good context of where the market structure is
and what Market shift should take place next
19:34
foreign this is that same dollar Index that's viewed on a weekly time frame and
we're looking at every four months for quarterly shifts and we're going to drop
down into a daily chart you can see here we have the dollar Index daily and
what I did was again I'm only using calendars starts of each month here from
one January to the following years January or in the case of this example the
New Year 2017 that we're now in looking at 2016's January 1st to January 1st
of 2017.
20:21
I want you to take a look at how many times the market shifts back and forth
and how many price swings you see over the course of a full year I want a
daily time frame you're not getting a great deal of setups and unfortunately
that's the reason why most people don't trade this time frame but it is a time
frame that is supportive to all other disciplines of trading and I said this
multiple times and I kind of belabor it here but I want you to see how the
market does in fact give us a very good macro view of the marketplace where
it
20:56
gives us framework and structure to work within so that way we can trade on
one side of the marketplace and focus primarily there.
 9

deal with a little bit more detail about what is a quarterly shift okay on your
chart you're going to delineate with a vertical line on your calendar at the
beginning of the year you're going to find or and if you're just now starting say
you're watching this video which you shouldn't be because everyone should
be watching at the same time in
21:28
January 2017 as part of this mentorship but for those that are studying again
watching this video and the mentorship and their access to the content you
may look at your charts and it may be May okay it could be three years from
now and you could do a whole new analysis by taking a look at the chart and
putting a vertical line at the beginning of the most recent past month okay for
instance we're in January right now you would put it on the first day of
December okay and you would do everything I'm about to explain to you here
but to
22:00
start it all to make it easy to explain everything I just used the January to the
January Factor and we're going to be viewing that as the anticipated quarterly
shift now we don't know that's going to be true but we're going to do some
things to arrive at how we can calibrate that level and this is called the look
back what you're going to be doing is you're going to look back from your
month of study wherever that is in time regardless of what when you start your
analysis the most recent past month okay
22:35
you want to be using that first trading day of that month put a vertical line on
your chart and then from that point on you're going to be looking back to the
left you're going to be looking back to the left of that vertical line that you place
on your chart 60 trading days 40 trading days and 20 trading days now why
am I giving you those three parameters the algorithm will reach back about
three trading months worth of data that's the the average where it'll reach
back for now there's other times where
23:12
it will go into further ranges but for now I'm just teaching you how to look for
the most Salient points of reference on the daily chart the 60 the 40 and the
20 trading days left of the most recent calendar month put your vertical line on
that that's your beginning marker point and you're going to delineate what 60
days to the left of that is what 40 days to the left of that is and what 20 days
 10

and they're all trading days not calendar days you're going to basically in those
ranges you're going to identify
23:48
institutional order flow what was the market doing 60 days ago to now or instead of a
vertical line of that most recent month that's delineated in your chart also to the left of
that vertical line you place on your chart you're going to be looking back over the 60
the 40 and the 20 past trading days to the left of that past month and you're going to
look for recent institutional reference points I'm gonna look for an old price High
you're gonna look at old price low why are you doing that you're looking for a
24:26
potential liquidity pool that would be resting above it or if those highs have a lot of
Wicks you're going to be looking for rejection blocks which would be a move above
the bodies of the candles for a potential sell-off or below an old low that has long
Wicks on it you'd be looking for the bodies of the candle to house some cell side
liquidity below that for a rejection block or sell stops below an old blow if there's not a
whole lot of Wicks to the lows that would be defined in the last 60 to 40 to 20 trading
days
24:59
you'll be looking for bearish order blocks pool shoulder blocks in the last 60 days and
you're going to look specifically around the last 60 around 40 in the last 20 days
basically you're looking back the last three trading months and you'll be looking for
fair value gaps and any liquidity voids as well once you identify over the last 60
trading days okay you're using the previous closed calendar month as your beginning
reference point again as an example right now today it's January 6th 2017.
25:41
and if I were to use this method I would look at December 1st 2016. my vertical line
would be on that calendar day and then I would book 60 trading days to the left of
that on my chart I would look 40 trading days to the left of that and I would look 20
trading days to the left of that December 1st or whatever the first trading day would
be for December 2016.
26:04
and I'll be looking for over those three months where's the high and where's the low if
the market has been trading higher I'm going to frame everything off of the market
low if it's been trading lower I'm going to trade frame everything off of the market
High so again I'll repeat that for you you're looking back left 60 trading days at the
maximum over those last 60 trading days you're determining what was the
institutional order flow over those last three months was it trading higher collectively
or
26:36
was it trading lower collectively as a whole sometimes you can look at it and it'll be a
rather large trading range and that's okay still you'll be able to do things with that as
well but for now you want to see what's more significant was there a significant
intermediate term price low formed in the last 60 trading days to the left or was it a
significant intermediate term high that formed whichever is true and whichever is
obvious to you then you put your vertical line on that high or that low
27:08
so now you're calibrating it to the market structure that's in place right now once you
do that what you're doing is you're anchoring your vertical line to a previous Market
structure shift.
 11

go back to our daily chart of the dollar Index okay and this is what we had
earlier in the presentation I had January 1st 2016 to January 1st 2017.
27:37
okay and I'm going to do what I just explained to you if we were looking at the
market in January 1st of 2016 we're going to actually do what I explained just
a moment ago and this is what we end up at we would be moving to
December 2015 the first trading day there versus January 1st of 2016.
28:04
so we moved to the left and we noted that high and we were using the first
calendar day of the month and they're always using that reference point to
calibrate and begin because again if our belief is the algorithm is systematic
it's methodical it's going to work on data ranges and it's going to use calendar
dates and it has to reference how far to look back because it's a numerical
reference point so now we know how we can calibrate just like the algorithm
will will Define it in the sense of every three months there is a
28:37
shift also in the last three months where is the liquidity at and that's essentially
what we're going to be talking specifically dealing with in the next teaching
with the open float but for here to get to that understanding in the next
teaching I have to teach you how to calibrate your Market structure so that
way you can see where the market is most likely going to reach for so now we
have our reference point on our vertical line all the way to the left the furthest
most left vertical line again delineated at December 1st
29:07
2015 and now we're anchored now we're going to do the look back on that
vertical line we're going to be looking at the range that was created in the last
60 trading days from that vertical line that we adjusted and anchored at
December 1st 2015. over the last 60 trading days what we saw is the market
traded higher from around October 2015 so it made an interview and term low
the market traded up and created that short-term or any term High at
December 1st or their balance in the last 40 trading days to the left of that
29:45
December 1st 2015 delineation with that vertical line we also see there was a
consolidation and then expanded again once more time higher in the last 20
trading days to the left of that vertical line the market just kept pressing higher
 12

so institution order flow was bullish so where is the liquidity at it's going to be what it's
going to be below the marketplace because the market has already traded higher
that's this reference point here right below that October low the market trades lower
after or to the
30:30
right of December 1st 2015. once the market trades lower in between this reference
point once we identified where the market structure starts to break down that means
a kilo was broken and that kilo is seen right here any retracement higher or
movement higher at this moment we're going to be anticipating a move lower
because the market has already been moving bullishly we've seen a market structure
break lower and now we're going to be anticipating a potential move lower in the
dollar Index it could be a consolidation sideways but
31:11
we're still expecting a measure of bearishness in the dollar Index post December
2015. the 60 to 40 and the 20 when we look back like this again we're focusing
primarily on where has the market traded from what was the institutional order flow at
that point and at the this time we can see clearly between the October and November
into December 2015 the market had been Trading bullishly I don't care about the
long long term Trend right now all we're doing is looking at quarterly shifts and this
31:51
will give you a great deal context on how you can do a lot of different trading but it'll
help you frame your position trades because without understanding this you can't
incorporate Trend to get yourself on the right side of the marketplace there are things
that we're going to teach in the content for January that helps you get in sync with
long-term trends but for the most part I want you to look at how the market shifts
back and forth both directions the markets aren't always in big long-term trends on
the higher time
32:20
frame charts they may be in a larger range that larger range will be trends that would
look Dynamic on a hourly chart or 15 minute time frame but on a higher time frame
you're still within a well-defined range so by using this higher time frame daily chart
when we see the market structure shift bearishly we're expecting now the next three
months to be a potential correction again the reference points that I asked you to go
into and look for were all the things we taught in September which is the order block
bullish and bearish
33:00
fair value gaps liquidity voids old highs and old lows so we're anticipating a move
back into institutional reference points then moving lower looking for that same event
to occur looking for lower level institutional reference points in other words price
should be drawn down to a logical level not Randomness down to a logical level from
an Institutional vantage point where we can see where they would want to absorb
liquidity or engineer new liquidity into the marketplace so using this last 60 40 and 20
idea we want to look at how price in
33:45
those ranges what is it created well the market has moved higher so prior to
December 1st 2015 the marketplace had an Institutional order flow that was moving
bullishly so that means as the market was moving higher every short-term low is
going to have sell side liquidity or sell stops below that so in each one of these
ranges what we can do is Define the range find the low and then we can note that as
where all of the cell side liquidity is.
 13

once you have your vertical line calibrated to the most recent Market structure
shift
34:36
and you've done the look back and you've defined all of the liquidity reference
points on the 60 40 and 20 last trading days to the left and you identified
institution order flow and you referred to all the recent institutional reference
points that we've identified in brief listing now you're going to be doing the
cast forward okay the cast four is when you look ahead with the same
parameters we use when we look back we're anticipating the next Market shift
in 20 to 60 trading days again because
35:08
if we understand and we our belief is the market will have a gyration a new
directional bias okay or a shift in sentiment or as I call it a quarterly shift we
cast forward 20 days to the right of our vertical line when the last shift was 40
days ago in other words if we've seen a market structure shift after a vertical
line was delineated if we see the market shift in the last 40 days to the left of
where we're at now we cast forward 40 more days because we're always
using a reference point of 60 days
35:57
we cast forward 40 days when the last shift was 20 days ago again the
common denominator is it's 60 days of range that we're always using we do
this until we reach the extreme of the projected three month limit in other
words where there would be another vertical line drawn on our chart or
capping three months.
14
 15

what does that look like this is what it looks like here this is called the cast
forward where we have delineated a calendar first trading day at 2015
December 1st as we did moments ago we have a 20-day range a 40-day
range
36:45
and a 60-day range added to the right of our December 1st 2015 delineation
or the vertical line and now what we have is a future day range or a data
range the algorithm is going to anticipate doing a shift in the marketplace in
that range between 60 and 20 days if we've seen the market structure break
down as we saw a moments ago by delineating this low here then we're
looking for a market move going lower to fill in a potential liquidity void seen
here in the range of 60 days to the right of our Market structure shift
delineation
 16

37:47
that we have at December 1st 2015. we expect a setup on the daily chart
essentially in the next 60 days so that tells you a time Horizons you could
have to wait sometimes as long as 60 trading days now this is the reason why
I'm not a heavy positioned Trader because I don't have the capacity to wait
that long for the next trade some of you that may be perfect for you but for me
personally it doesn't fit my cup of tea but it doesn't have to require you trading
for that entire duration you can use this to get
38:22
daily bias contacts you can get short-term setups and you can get long-term
objectives where the market should be moving over weeks and months
versus limiting your scope on a short-term intraday basis and marrying those
lower time frames now we're looking at the euro dollar in the same way but
obviously like we mentioned earlier the U.
38:46
S dollar is going to be inversely related to the euro dollar if we're expecting
bearishness on the dollar Index we would be expecting bullishness on the
euro dollar so in the same way we're going to add 20 days to the right of our
2015 December 1st 40 days to the right of that vertical line and then we're
going to add 60 days to the right of that line and on mt4 what you're going to
do is you can just use a trend line and anchor it to your vertical line drive it out
to the right and let go of it for a little bit and click back on
39:22
the right end of it and drag it out some more and you'll see the number that
gives you a range is pull that out until you get to 20 to 40 into 60 and then
you'll have the delineations that would be necessary to frame out how far the
ipta data ranges go I want you to see that the high formed here on the euro
dollar look how it falls directly right at the 60 day if the data range Nails it on
the very high now this is a daily chart folks okay so think about what we're
doing here we're mapping out where the highest probable
39:59
time when the time range should be influential in when the setups occur now
we're going to have a lot of tools to help us move down into a lot more
Precision even with this time frame but you have to understand when the
setups occur again if it's something that's not random and if it is in fact
manipulated and controlled there should be characteristics that repeat
themselves and it should be measurable and we should be able to see things
repeat themselves based on a criteria the algorithm will seek to do something
40:35
in the first 20 days the first 40 days and up to 60 days after the most recent
Market structure shift we saw a high form on the dollar Index and expected
the market to move lower because it broke its Market structure bearishly we
can see the euro dollar made a low here December 1st 2015 and price moved
higher breaking Market structure bullishly for it in between the vertical lines
okay once you have calibrated your Market structure on a quarterly basis and
we're assuming back in back in 2015 December 1st that
41:16
we would have calibrated there now again I'm going to give you this as a
homework because I want you to go through your charts and do this very
exercise and you're going to see it's not form fitted it's the same stuff that you
 17

can do in your own charts don't just use what I'm using here go into your
charts and do the very thing that I'm showing you here assume that you
started doing the analysis in for instance July of 2016 and do the same thing
okay and you'll see it still helps you it'll give you
41:44
all the data points that you would be using but if we see that we're expecting
bullishness on the part of the euro dollar because the dollar Index was
expected to go bearishly after December 2015 that means all the way up into
March 2016 we have a stance that the bearishness in the dollar should bode
well for bullishness on the euro dollar so between those two reference points
because we understand that December 1st okay we go out forward three to
four months we go as far as March 1st and by having March 1st
42:28
defined as the beginning of the new month out that that far away we project
that that limit on the quarterly range in between December 1st and March 1st
we would be expecting a bullish signal to form in the euro dollar and a bear
signal to form in the dollar Index getting back to what we mentioned earlier
about buy programs and sell programs the scenario would be even looking at
a daily chart there's going to be a manipulation that takes place even on a
higher time frame daily let's go back to the dollar Index
43:09
okay do you see the highs here all these Highs are forming inside of the data
range of 60 days to the right of the beginning of December 2015. so all of
these highs in here higher higher higher higher is seeing what after the market
structure break below this low here all these retracements higher all that did
was close in this liquidity void when this void closed in up here inside of the
data range of 60 days we had to measure is there all this Justified by using a
inversely related currency like the euro dollar now we can go and
44:02
take a look at the lows that were forming in the euro dollar here's 20 days 40
days and 60 days to the right of the delineation setting our new marker for the
quarterly shift look at the lows here in the euro dollar all the way up to the 60-
day data range the lows were higher in the euro dollar so this was under what
accumulation the underlying which would be traded because we don't trade
the dollar Index we use it as a benchmark the underlying is failing to make a
lower low again at the same time that The Benchmark is making higher
44:46
highs by all standards this looks like bullishness every time a new high is
formed and it looks like it's trying to go higher all it's doing is inching up the
clothes in this liquidity void that reference point that we talked about at the
beginning of this teaching this is what it's looking to close in it's pressing
higher at the same time all this entire High business is not being seen with
lower lows in the euro dollar and it's occurring in between where we delineate
the market structure
45:15
shift here we go out three months that means there's going to be a move that
takes place in the next three months on the daily chart we're looking for it to
happen within 60 days of a new calendar month if this data range will go out
and project that long the 60-day delineation nails the very high so you have a
buy-in here and it ends right here after closing in this void okay so essentially
 18

what we're doing is we're framing the market quarterly and it gives us a
context to look at the market modularly so we can take the
45:56
price action and really look inside of it and look for setups instead of just being
lost in the whole grand scheme of things looking at the candles highs and
lows and all that business you have to understand there's a the Rhythm and
there's a there's a method behind how price is delivered even on a daily chart
like this every three months to four months there's going to be a shake up in
the market there's going to be a sentiment shift there's going to be a change
in Trend okay there's going to
46:27
be excitement injected into the marketplace to cause interest in a specific
asset class especially if it's an asset class that's been dormant for a while it
hasn't been traded much they tend to take those markets and shake them up
so by looking the market and breaking it down like this it gives us a great deal
of context it's specific it's measurable it gives us a very clear indication of what
we're doing and how how long it should take to form and then looking for the
signs to create these setups
47:01
you can see here at the lows we had a market structure shift that was bullish
on the dollar Index if we had these highs in here taken out on the upside so
no highs were violated on the upside prior to this High here on the daily so
institution order flow broke to bullishness here because of the shift in Market
structure the Market's trading lower here okay now we have another divider
okay at June 1st 2016.
47:33
so all you're doing is adding another vertical line once you have one you go
out in time you add these individually okay now you can calibrate them as you
see fit based on what the Market's doing but I'm going to resist the temptation
to calibrate it based on this Market structure shift here because you could do
the same thing here once this Market structure breaks foolishly here you can
go back to May 1st and use that as your delineation and then start going 20
days 40 days 60 days to the right of
48:05
it okay and then draw another vertical line every three months or so and then
that will be the same thing to be accomplished here but I want to keep
everything as it is here because I don't want to do any more that's necessary
to teach this specific principle because we're going to build on it as we go
through January's content but I want you to take a look at what this is done we
have a low here on the dollar Index we have a low here on the dollar Index
that's lower and then we have another lower low on the
48:30
dollar Index after the market structure has broken to the bullish side so once
we have an interruption in the down move okay notice also it's been
essentially six months of down movement on the dollar that's about when
you're going to see the shake-up that takes place and there's also going to be
a seasonal influence that we're going to talk about in January as well but for
this movement here I want you to take a look at the relationship of how the
dollar makes these lower lows in here let's go back to the euro dollar at the
49:00
 19

same time let's see what was going on around June of 2016 in the euro well
we're not seeing that higher high that would be reasonably expected as we
saw lower lows in dollar let's go back again we have lower lows in the dollar at
the same time we should be seeing higher highs in the euro dollar it's not
happening we see a higher high here but you have to look at every
institutional reference point we have an old high back here relatively this is not
higher it's actually lower this is a market that's
49:41
heavily being distributed this Market run up here is just a run on buy side
liquidity taking the buy stops out on short players already and then the market
trades lower in between the vertical lines to delineate the next Market shift
okay there's a quarterly shift that takes place every three or four months and
you can see that these smart money accumulation and distribution programs
are very easy to see in price action but you have to Define it in such a way
where you now look for it to occur also notice and I'll leave this for your
50:19
own personal study how many days away to the right of this calendar start
that's just High form I'll leave that for your personal study I'll also counsel you
to take a look at this day right here this is the election okay even on the day of
the election there is exactly out to 60 days to the right of of here 60 days on
the empty mt4 platform now it's the very very high that gives us the sell-off so
initially it opened up traded higher on the euro dollar and rejected and traded
aggressively lower
51:00
this higher high again here's the old High this higher high is not being seen
with a lower low in the dollar Index so dollars being accumulated the
underlying strength is in dollar can't go lower and the euro dollar only went
higher to take out the buy stops they're going to reject that as false strength
which is suspect rally and the price moved lower as a result of it so I want you
to go through this notes this is going to require you a lot of thinking as that's
why I said this month is going to be a lot of information
51:40
that's why you have to have a video recording every single day and they have
to be pre-recorded if I do any live sessions this entire month of January
there's no way I have enough time in the day and also live my own personal
life to be able to complete all the things that's necessary to cover long-term
analysis and have it all encapsulated in the first month of 2017 and then again
framework going forward so go through the notes on this one again go
through your charts also using it as well and again in summary all you're doing
is
52:12
you're looking for a obvious break and shift in the marketplace like this was
one here okay the market trades higher and then if we were looking at the
market in February we could go back to January 1st and put our marker there
and then go out 20 days 40 days 60 days and you'd get something here we're
looking back and see where the liquidity is resting you're looking back to find
what liquidity is and you're looking forward or to the right of it to get the very
next setup in terms of the data range you're going to know how long
52:50
 20

it takes potentially before the next setup forms and how far back you look for
the liquidity reference points for where the stops are on the above or below
the lows and where the liquidity voids and gaps are that you want to be
referencing so it gives you context and believe me we're gonna have lots of
examples of this for January's content but for the most part I want you to look
at the market in a quarterly basis I want you to be able to calibrate your
Market shifts okay on a quarterly basis how it's being defined in this video and
53:22
regardless of where you're at in time like for instance say it was November 14
2016. what month would you calibrate your vertical line to to start if you said
October 1st 2016 you're accurate you're correct if you said anything other
than that you're wrong okay you want to go back to the previous closed month
you want to go back one full calendar month where it traded from the first
trading day to the last trading day and then created a new month by doing that
you calibrate yourself that way you'll be able to see what it
53:58
is doing reference wise and then you start walking forward from there when
you see an obvious change in Trend which we saw up here we have a market
structure break here bearishly for the Euro all this rallying up is just another
attempt to do what we saw happening in the dollar back here when it had a
market structure break bearishly it traded higher up the closing the void and
then sold off the same thing is just being seen here Market structure break
here smart comes up take out buy side liquidity and underlying weakness
seen here
54:35
the heavy distribution and the market goes lower.
 21

Open Float

the long-term analysis implementing macro analysis quarterly shifts and open
float okay we're going to be talking about open float on this teaching okay the
quarterly shift with open float and let's first start by defining what is open float
the open float is the current open interest above and below current market
price now this is going to be in the form of pending buy orders in other words
buy
01:23
stops that are resting above old highs or it could be just resting above market
price doesn't have to be old highs and sell orders it could be below the market
price by very little bit in terms of pips or could be below significant lows there
are open interest in the form of sell stops for entry orders and sell stops for
collapsing long positions and there are buy stops to get along and then buy
stops to protect short positions all of those are equating to open float it's the
total open interest of the players that are in
02:07
the market now or hope to be depending on where price goes relative to those
standing orders okay when open float is used to determine buy side liquidity
shorts use protective buy stops above the last bearish shift buy stops above
short-term highs that could be in the form of a weekly high or a monthly high
five stops above the highest high in the last three months buy stops above the
current six-month high and buy stops above the current 12-month high now
don't be discouraged by hearing these numbers because
02:59
you can be really close to the 12-month high for a long period of time and
never really get to it um when i first remember reading about this type of idea
the range for the 12-month high and low i thought to myself you know it takes
12 months to get back to that level and that just shows how myopic my
viewpoint was when i first started trading the 12 month high and low you can
be inside that range for a long time near the high or the low it doesn't take that
long to get to it so some of the new traders that usually
03:35
send me emails they ask me how often do i trade 12-month highs and lows
well you could see a 12-month high or low pretty quickly yeah it depends on
 22

what the range is in your market the same thing is said for a six-month high
the one we're going to focus on here primarily is the buy stops above the
highest high in the last three months because we're looking at the quarterly
shift that's going to be a very significant price level where buy stops will be
resting so every three months you want to be noting where that high is
04:13
and there's going to be buy stops definitely most likely getting targeted if we
have a market structure shift bush and they're going to be aiming for those
buy stops above the three-month highs any run buy stops above a short-term
high which is a monthly high or a weekly high that's going to give us a strong
prognostication for short-term volatility as well when we're looking at the sell
side of the liquidity long to use protective cell stops under the last bullish shift
cell stops below short-term lows
04:52
that can be in the form of a weekly low or a monthly low sell slots below the
lowest low in the last three months sell slots below the current six-month low
and finally sell stops below the current 12-month low now one of the questions
i get a lot and i get it actually sent to me by email even in the free members
area from my website and on youtube when i talk about running stops or if i
talk about turtle soup false breaks above old highs or false breaks below no
low the question always comes up is how do i know if
05:43
the market's going to stop just right above old high or below and low and then
reverse or keep on going and i'm going to teach you the ideas that i use to get
to that conclusion uh what what gives me the conviction that builds the
confidence on believing that it's just going to punch above an old high and
probably not continue going higher not by much in other words and then
retrace and probably offer a shorting opportunity the same thing is re reverse
for buying an old low once it's been violated.
23
24
 25

this chart is basically outlining the same levels that we had for the quarterly
shifts and every three months the intervals are shown here i kept the majority
of the vertical lines off i just use those segments to delineate what those
reference points would still be relative to date and i want you to take a look at
this chart for a minute focus and study on it and if you can pause the video for
a couple minutes and note significant price highs and lows obviously you can
see the one that's here and the low down here
07:23
so we have two pretty significant runs above an old high and below an old low
i want you to draw your attention to this short-term low here when price traded
below that low that was a break in market structure okay so we had a market
shift below that low and the market continued trading all the way down until it
got to the 105 30 level whenever we see the bearish shift lower in price your
eyes need to go right to the high it just came from because on a daily chart
that's going to have a lot of liquidity above it
08:13
that liquidity is in the form of a liquidity pool for buy stops the folks that were
fortunate enough to be short from that old high trading down into 105 34 their
position would have a run on the buy stops that's residing holding on to a long
term position now you're probably asking yourself what retail trader in their
right mind would have a buy stop on a short held on that long just to see it
kamali back up there and get knocked out well again the market's not trading
against the retail traders it's trading against
08:54
the large liquidity offered by the big funds because funds are traditionally long-
term trend following traders these reference points on the daily time frame are
going to be salient to understanding how open float has a big impact on where
future price movements are going to take you as you can see here after
creating a low of 1.
09:22
0534 market does in fact have one more market structure shift and sends
price higher pay attention to the quarterly shift markers that we have here
every three months there is a significant run on liquidity the move off of the
105 34 level has a break in market structure then you can see the subsequent
retracement back to the short term high and then price rallies away fills in the
liquidity void from october retraces back down into the 108 60 level then
rallies again then ultimately making a run up for the buy stops above the 1
10:09
15 big figure that market structure break there bullishly is the catalyst that
sends the market higher to make the stops above 115 big figure targeted
below that low there's going to be a large liquidity pool on the daily time frame
again it's not for retail traders it's going to be for the large funds because there
was a significant displacement among many months about six months or so
the market rallied from 105 34 to 1 115 70s or thereabout so it's a pretty
significant move for the euro dollar there's going to be sell side liquidity
11:05
or sell stops in the form of a liquidity pool below that low you see price did in
fact sweep down there and grab that liquidity neutralizing all the cell stops so
let's take a look at what takes place and how we can use open float and help
answer some of the confusion you have about why the market should be
 26

expected to go a certain level and then retrace or reverse and how we can
look forward to one side of the market being predominantly controlled and
staving off any continuation after the move blows through an old high or below
an old well
11:53
as you see here we have a short-term high here rate before the market runs
through that that retracement back down into the 107 50s the buy stops that
would be resting above that high they're targeted and the market runs right
through that and also fills in a liquidity void to the left from october then the
market retraces deeper and then we have a short-term height that was
created by that rally above taking the buy stops out that short-term high
eventually gets ran out as well making a run on the buy stops that will
12:30
be resting above that now what buy stocks will be wrestling about that people
that want to sell short every time price makes a impulse price swing there's
always invariably going to be orders that want to be selling there and they're
going to be sometimes short positions funds will go in and start working their
positions in early and sometimes they get knocked out and that's what's
happening here many times you're seeing that same phenomenon you end up
going through it's just going through
13:02
a larger scope in terms of order size and finally making a run on that 115 big
figure clearing out the buy stops above the previous october high now i'm
going to draw your attention to how do you know when the market's going to
reach for one side of the liquidity or the other notice while the market was
trading from the low at 105.
13:34
34 all the way up to 115 big figure there wasn't any significant move on sell
stops at all they were driving price up to take the liquidity out at 115. once that
liquidity was taken out in the form of the buy stop raid at 115 big figure the
market broke down and created a violation of a short-term low that short-term
low had trailing cell stops resting below it those cell stops would now would be
violated and canceled so any longs would be knocked out at this point now
you need to be paying close attention because this is where the
14:13
rubber meets the road this short-term low and that run on the cell stops right
below that low here you want to draw special attention to that right now
because this is your first clue that we are probably going to work the sell side
of the liquidity we don't know it at the time when it first forms we have to start
watching what price does we already know we have a strong rejection above
the 115 big figure and we've came a long way from 105 34 with none of the
cell stocks taken except for this one here now we have a short term height
that's
14:55
violated just briefly but my question is is that short-term little violation above
an old high is that making new ground for new highs no it didn't even
challenge the old high but look at the strong rejection right above that high it
creates another lower low so this short term low right here also sees its
liquidity in the form of the cell stops ran out as well my question to you is this
 27

at this moment right now it's at the midway point or equilibrium between the
105 34 and the 115 big figure the chances of this creating a higher
15:45
high where we're at right now relative to the 115 big figure is not likely not
because it's hindsight and it's right in front of me but because it's showing
indications that it can't create new ground once the buy stop side of the
liquidity is taken but it's creating new lower ground every single time a short-
term low is violated it gathers up more momentum and gathers more distance
between the range of 115 big figure and 105 34.
16:16
so every time it drops it drops a little bit more but every time it rallies it fails to
make a new high even if it takes a short-term high out it's not gaining any
more ground on the upside every rally is being distributed we have a short-
term high here as well and those buy stops are ran out as well same question
does this rally above a short-term high create a new high no it can't even get
above the previous failed attempt to make another higher high at the 114 big
figure then once again we have a rally through an old high
17:02
does it gain new ground no but it's quickly rejected and trades lower and then
violates two times it goes below the 109 10 level once briefly before running
up and taking that run on 112 95 and then rejecting that level after taking the
buy stops out and making a run for another pass through the 108 50s this
short from this high at 1 12 95 was on the heels of the u s elections we saw a
strong dollar and the market quickly rejected all of the rallies in foreign
currencies the movement below every short-term low and gaining more
ground
17:59
on the downside that's the indication you look for regardless of whatever time
frame you're trading but on the daily chart you're looking for clues that it wants
to gain more momentum on one side of the market or the other you're going to
reference where the buy stops are available highs and where the sell stops
are below old lows but what you're watching for is the tug of war that takes
place between each new run on stops below the market and above the
market if you notice where the intermediate
18:31
term highs are if intermediate term highs keep creating lower intermediate
term highs and enemy term lows and short-term lows keep going lower each
time it's telling you that it wants the open float below the marketplace in other
words it wants to seek to sell side liquidity it's going to draw lower so now
think about what this has done for you it gives you a directional bias on the
daily chart and it takes a long time for these moves to take place but once
you're studying price and you look for these clues across many pairs and
19:08
many asset classes you'll see that this is in fact what leads you to daily chart
directional bias which also will serve you very well in other disciplines of
trading whether it be day trading scalping short-term trading or swing this will
give you what you're looking for in terms of how do i know what side of the
market it's going to make the run on is it going to run the buy stops or it's
going to run the cell stops think about what time frame you're looking at here
this is a daily chart if the daily chart is indicating that it
 28

19:42
wants to run lower because it has no problem getting down below short term
lows but every rally has a failure to make new ground and can't make a higher
high when it does make a higher high it's punished immediately but the high
that it makes is always just above a short-term insignificant high every time it
does this it solidifies a intermediate term high that is now lower than the
previous intermediate term high an intermediate term high is any high that has
a short term high to the left of it and to the right of it
20:22
think of it like a head and shoulders top formation every time you see a enemy
term high that has a lower enemy term high to the left of it and enemy term
high to the right of it that's actually a long term high in the middle again think
like a head and shoulders pattern now invert that and you'll have the same
thing that would be said for an immediate term low or a long term low once
you see that in price you'll actually see the market structure that i actually
learned from studying larry williams as a new
20:57
trader you can see the market structure in this entire sample size of data it's
multiple intermediate term highs and long term highs that are significantly
signaling that the market in fact wanted to go lower there was a liquidity void
around the 106.80 level to 106.35 it filled that in when all the way down to the
short-term low at 105.
21:31
34 bounce a little bit there and then ultimately once breaking that low at 107
big figure it reached down below to take this outside liquidity out now when
you study the daily charts like this you can look at a lot of examples but they
require time and unfortunately they don't give you a lot of turnaround time for
study but in hindsight you can go back and look at a plethora of really nice
trading examples where you can see where liquidity was ran on one side the
market was drawn up for three to six months okay look at the move from
22:15
the december low of 2015 up to the high made in may of 2016. it's about six
months then the move from that high in the spring of 2016 it traded all the way
down to a low made in december of 2016. again about six months or so a little
bit more in six months but you're seeing the effects of how the quarterly shift
takes place also how the runs on liquidity and the implementation of open
float open float is the study of how the market reaches for the buys and the
cells that are above market price knowing where orders will be building
23:10
and stacking above old highs and below old lows that will give you the
framework to map out which side of the marketplace the market makers and
smart money are seeking to make a run on if you can determine that on a
daily chart like this it will give you trend daily bias long-term bias and it'll give
you prognostication for having smart money perspectives an institutional
vantage point with all of your trades.
 29

Using IPDA Data Ranges

 30

a ipta data range example and we'll be focusing on the australian dollar now if
you've noticed we've had a little bit of a run up on aussie and we're gonna
break this down a little bit in context why i was expecting the the levels that
we're looking at now to be hit looking at the charts that we share on the forum
so if you're not paying attention to those charts or if you're not saving them it
might be a good idea while we're doing
00:35
this month not that i'm encouraging you to do this throughout the mentorship
but when we do daily reviews i'm taking you basically to the points at which
i'm drawing my attention to on my own journal how i have reference points on
my own charts what you see me noting on those daily entries on the forum
there are the points at which i'm keeping focus in my own journal and any
salient points that would be in addition to those levels i will make in terms of
commentary but the the month of january when we do these
01:13
daily entries where i do the dollar index euro dollar british pound us dollar
dollar cad and aussie dollar when i share them with you don't just click on
them and wait for some kind of a neon sign and say buy here sell here i want
you to be focusing on what i'm drawing your attention to and then watching
how price moves to these levels regardless of what type of trader you're going
to be you're going to need to be focusing on how that happens from beginning
or from foresight to when now we can talk about it in hindsight
01:50
because all these things are going to help you prepare yourself for when you
anticipate something and then waiting throughout that process because it's
not is quickly learned by simply looking at a hindsight example where i can
say okay this is what we said the market was going to do this is where we
thought the market was going to happen and here it is bang when you see it
in the charts and draw your attention is drawn to it beforehand there's a
submission to time that's required and unfortunately we gloss over
02:20
that many times even as educators like myself it's hard to communicate
what's required in terms of having to wait for that thing to unfold or develop in
the chart just simply because we have a level or an order block or a target
even for price to get to when you show a hindsight example it that part of the
lesson which in my opinion is the that's the main that's the main point you
have to learn you have to learn to wait for these things to unfold the
impatience that the market presents us an opportunity to
02:54
experience is overwhelming sometimes and while i'm many times accredited
for being very patient i am not really a patient person at all i'm very impatient
uh that's the reason why i don't do long term position trading but i'm going to
counsel you to go in every single day when we do our daily entries for the
content whether it be a video review or whether it be a a teaching or if it's
something along the lines of just simply providing the charts you want to be
really copying those charts printing them out
03:29
make you hold me hold me to the standard of if i know what i'm doing then it
should be evidenced in this okay for you for the most part we've seen many
times that occurring but for your learning you need to say okay this is when
 31

this was noted this is when the observation was made so how long did it take
for this to occur now since january is focused primarily on the daily chart
obviously each daily candle when it paints and closes for the day it obviously
takes 24 hours to do that so yes we can glibly say
04:03
it takes 24 hours for this candle to form and this is what it takes in terms of uh
the setup or level being reached over this period of time it could took three
days or four days or two weeks you need to experience that you need to be
being mindful of how long those things take especially on these higher time
frame charts if you don't do this and you're new or you're just a relatively
inexperienced trader some of you that are in my group that have been trading
for a long time know exactly what i'm referring to
04:34
there's a big gap in between learning something with examples in hindsight
and textbook and even being taught something in a webinar or a workshop
live where people say this is what happened in the marketplace it's missing
that element of having to endure what needs to be weighted upon to come
into your chart you can't just simply say okay well this is the outcome i'm
expecting and therefore you know it needs to happen on my time that's the
part that kills traders it was very influential in my early
05:09
days as a trader because i i needed it to happen right away because i first
started trading things were moving quick there were fast markets and then
when i realized that it wasn't like that always it was a very big struggling point
for me so just go in every day gather those charts up print them out keep a
running log of them in fact it's probably a good idea just to print them out
every day and just get yourself a three ring binder punch some holes in it date
them okay and then keep track it's a good
05:36
reference point to go back on saturdays and sundays on the weekend when
we're not really doing anything go back and look at what was observed before
the fact and then how long it took for these things to develop and those levels
to be reached and what was the response after it got to those levels okay so
it's important you go through the mentorship with that in mind i'm not just
showing you trophies or you know just things in passing i'm really trying to
draw your attention to something that i
06:01
want you to focus on and study how long it takes for these things to come to
fruition okay so get it let's get into the australian dollar example where the if
the data range all right so we have here a futures chart okay this is the march
contract the underlying daily chart of the futures contract of the australian
dollar and by looking at the futures contract if we're going to be trading forex
okay it's it's really important that you know that you can get a lot of insight just
by studying the underlying futures
06:42
price so since if we're looking at the australian usd pair as our case study
we're going to be looking at how influential the study of just the futures
contract alone how that's paramount and understanding how that moves right
into and segways beautifully into trading in the foreign exchange market if i
were to do a poll right now if we were all in the same room together okay and
 32

we simply said hey look um i've never traded forex or i've never changed
futures if you were studying one or the other i guarantee
07:16
you a large percent of you probably 80 or more never really refer to the
opposite in terms of the analysis so what i mean by that is if you're a futurist
trader you've never considered what the foreign exchange markets doing or if
you're a futurist trader i'm sorry a forex trader you've never considered what
the underlying futures contract is doing vice versa it's imperative that you
understand what they're both doing to get a complete picture you want to be
looking at both now obviously right away one's going to
07:47
assume well it should be obvious it should be the same thing because the
australian is leading the payer all of you versus the dollar so therefore the
australian underlying futures contract should be in fact the same thing we see
in the foreign exchange market and by far and large it that's true but there are
certain data points that you cannot get by looking at the foreign exchange
market there's simply no way of getting that because foreign exchange
doesn't give you volume it doesn't give you
08:15
accurate volume like you can get volume from the underlying futures contract
and we'll talk more about that as we go but i want you to take a look at this
chart here okay and i'm looking at a little bit less than six months i wanted to
show just this data range because outside of this the chart becomes spotty
because it is a futures contract and it's march delivery that means prior to
march we had december's contract and that's already uh expired and now
we're trading in the nearby contract which is march 2017 australian
08:47
dollar when we taught or rather when i taught the ipta data ranges okay
obviously i i asked everyone to hold off sending me emails but some of you
were just overzealous and want to know it right now and these are things that
are going to be building on your understanding as we go through the
mentorship especially through january but i want you to focus when you look
at your daily chart just simply go through and look at the last three months
okay start whatever whatever time point you're looking at like right now let's
09:16
assume we sat down with charts right now and this would be the first day
we're looking at australian dollar we're a brand new trader brand new to the
concept we're sitting down how will we how would we go about looking at
where the ifta data ranges are and if we're looking at australian dollar you
want to go from today's uh candle which is what's being painted here that and
it's not a can i know it's open high low close but you have to suffer through
that okay because i had to get these slides together and i
09:46
promise there will be candlesticks shown but for now i want you to focus on
this because the open high loan closes important the most recent market shift
okay in the last three months occurred back in november now i know some of
you that are hardline critics are saying well here we go again this is the
hindsight thing this is where hindsight is gold you need to know what i'm going
to show you in this teaching because it will clarify what the if the data ranges
 33

are actually supposed to be doing for you some of you are thinking that it's
going
10:20
to call the high and low 20 days 40 days and 60 days away that's not what
happens sometimes it can hurt sometimes it can occur but that's not what its
job is okay the the question that comes up a lot is when i'm looking for a order
block to buy one or if i'm looking at an order block to sell into or if i'm looking
for an area of buy stops or sell stops which one should i expect them to go
after which one are they going to respect how do i know if it's not going to
keep on going through an old high and
10:52
not be a turtle soup cell all those scenarios and those ideas while i told
everyone in the beginning if you were just patient and waited and all those
questions would be answered but some of you are just really really impatient
and i get it you're excited and you think that you're not going to learn all this
stuff in the remaining time of the mentorship but trust me i'm committed you
will learn it there's tons of information coming to you but you have to let me go
through the process of teaching it this isn't the first time i
11:18
taught this stuff to trust me i've been successful in the past doing it okay so
just go along with the process but if we look at back in november we can
clearly see that there was a major market shift in november 2016. now what
that does it gives us a great deal of insight we can't take a time capsule travel
back in time okay and be back in november and go short there but we can
use the information that our daily charts are telling us there that means there
was a great deal of displacement by the large players or smart money
11:53
when we see that in november what we're seeing here is the underlying
futures contract of the australian dollar has a market shift right there that's a
quarterly market shift over the last three to six months that's the most obvious
one you can clearly see it if i was to ask everyone if you're all in the same
room raise your hand if you can clearly see that that is the most obvious
market shift in the last three to six months everybody invariably would raise
their hand they would click obviously if you can see it you can't
12:24
deny it that's what you're looking for every three months there's going to be
something like this occurring it could be a sell-off creating a high or it could be
a a low where it starts to rally but every three months i want you to look at
your charts and anticipate finding that in hindsight now great that's wonderful
you can see it in hindsight what do you do with that information see this is
what i have an issue with like with elliott wave and all these other very they're
just very highly subjective
13:01
if the market really is influenced or controlled by smart money or if there is
what i'm telling you there's an algorithm that controls what price is going to do
it's absolutely not random it's predetermined it's it's running on a script that
refers to specific data points that it will go back to over and over and over
again the ipta data range okay you have a 20 day look back and cast forward
range you have a 40 day look back and cast forward range and then you have
a 60 day look back and
 34

13:41
cast forward range what i'm suggesting to you is if you are looking at price
and you see a for instance they have a market structure shift here and the
quarterly shift occurs in november that means that now the market is in a cell
profile from that point until it gets to a level of significant counter direction
what would cause it to change direction or consolidate that's the other thing
that's the vague green uh not green but gray area in the analysis sometimes
you won't see a clear retracement or correction opposite
14:18
direction for instance it's been going down november it could have very easily
been consolidating here going into january okay into february it doesn't need
to be a counter trend move like we're seeing unfold here since the last week
of december it can be a consolidation and as we go further into the content for
the january uh delivery of the information we'll talk about when it does or when
to anticipate when it's going to go into consolidation and not have a a counter
swing so back in november we see that there's
14:50
a high made what's what's really going on that low here is broken so we have
a shift in market structure and it breaks lower we know that we can see it
because it's taken out an area of equal highs and we pierced above that
taking out the buy stop liquidity pool and that's seen here that was the that
was the basis and the framework around what caused the market structure
shift that quarterly effect comes in uh to operation at that moment okay where
our eyes go immediately back to november because you can clearly see it
15:26
when you see that and you delineate that in your chart what you're doing is
you're now identifying the beginning of november so you have to have a basis
point where where is it where did it all begin because if you don't get yourself
in sync with what ipda most recently did and ipta is the interbank price
delivery algorithm that's for your notes again you're going to delineate where
the most obvious one in the last three months has been then you're going to
cast out 20 days go forward from the beginning of the the month that
16:01
that market structure shift or quarterly shift takes place you're going to count
out 20 days now it may not even be 20 days you may look at the chart and
say hey this is an obvious one right here something's really going on if you do
that you're really doing too much anticipation you got to go back to the most
obvious one and it may require you going back three months but find the most
recent one where the market structure has shifted and there was a move that
took place that was obvious bullish or bearish okay
16:32
and it's really easy if you just divide your your daily chart into uh quarters like
put one put a line on march put a line on uh june and september december
and just keep doing that your your eye will go right to where these uh
quarterly shifts are happening they're not going to always occur on those
months there's a little bit of gray area which is the reason why we have a look
back and cast forward the ipta data range okay what it's really doing is it's
highlighting you as the trader you're going to try to
17:03
 35

mimic what this algorithm is doing it's looking for the liquidity in the range of
60 days in the past where is the sell stops in the last 60 days where are the
buy stops in the last 60 days where are the fair value gaps where's the price
gaps that price has not been efficiently delivered in the last 60 days where are
the the liquidity voids where price has only been delivered on the upside
where it has to come back down to efficiently deliver price and balance it out
by going back down and closing in that
17:40
range optimal trade entries that's where that comes from where are the
equilibrium price points does it have to return back to equilibrium did we get
too far ahead of ourselves do we extend too far do we have to come back and
retrace minor retracement before we see the next leg lower by looking at the
market structure shift that takes place in this november time period we are in
instance saying that this is a quarterly shift therefore because of the daily
chart this is going to give us insight about what the market should do on a
18:16
three-month timeline as much as six months but i like to just remind you that
i'm only really looking for about three months horizon time horizon that far out
i don't like to look beyond that there's many many times i can show you in
journals where i had it right but i really just because i had it right doesn't mean
i was executing on every trade but many times i'm really accurate in about
four to six weeks time horizon and it's about the half-life of a three-month
cycle so if i think that the time horizon is
18:48
consistently derived at by looking at three months out by using the daily chart
like this that's my belief i'm firm in my belief that i believe i can teach you how
to do that and have a three-month horizon by having that that is a great deal
of opportunities for all disciplines of trading long-term positions swing short
term intraday scalping all that stuff can be done effectively by having this time
horizon but when we find the clear market structure shift that happens every
quarterly every three to four months or so we find
19:24
it we identified the beginning of that month you gotta roll back to that first
month why are we doing that why does it have to go back to the first month
first of the month rather because if an algorithm and i'm not sure if any of you
are aware of how computer programs are made or designed but when a
systems analyst sits down with a company and they say okay look this is what
i want the output to be or i need a a report generator that's it's going to give
me this outcome or i need this information
19:57
or i need this computation made i need this process done okay the system
that's a system analyst is going to say okay what what data points are you
making available to me so i can sit down with my team of computer
programmers okay and the analyst will make a documentation stage where he
sits down and outlines the overall macro process now because of what they're
dealing with they are taught and learn computer programming to some degree
but they are not doing the programming they put all of the context around
what is supposed to
20:33
 36

happen what processes are there if this is done then this should be done as
well what checks and balances and it's basically the documentation stage of
the process of a computer program then the computer programmers take that
information and they actually code it out now a computer program and a
computer programmer is completely utterly blind and useless if he doesn't
have data points to use you can't have a computer program do anything of
any value unless it knows where to draw data points from there has to be an
21:07
array of information coming to it to process and do calculations so my here's
my this was my epiphany okay when i was sitting down with the folks that
were introducing these ideas to me and know they're not in the teaching
circuits you're never going to meet these people okay but when i was
introduced on how the markets actually work and operate the the fast thing i
the fastest and most obvious thing i learned was there was no ambiguity to
how price moves around there was no randomness because they were talking
about things
21:45
that had a finite or origination where it wasn't like it could have been this day it
could have been that year it could have been this month no no no no it's
absolutely nothing like that if you understand that we're going to be referring
to things that are numerical they are price related they are value based that
means that we have to look at a specific level and price but how does the
algorithm go just to end the old price how does the algorithm know that yet
that that's where the large fund stops are
22:18
see this is what's taught and permeated in the teaching uh circuits in in
education for trading they teach and i've said these things before but i used it
to communicate to you the idea because most people don't understand fund
level trading they don't understand institutional trading they don't they don't
know those types of things they just think i got an account with my broker so
therefore i'm trading and if i get stopped out it's my broker that did it to me and
many times that's true
22:44
but the delivery of price from the central bank level that movement that
repricing is really not always but on the short term it's being repriced to take
into account for large liquidity pools that are available on the large fund
trading realm not your little mom and pop fxem not your owanda none of
those none of those things okay are obvious or on the radar screen for what
i'm teaching you here but they are in close uh they're basically in alignment
with the same thing okay but they're this these
23:21
movements for these runs on stops they're not looking at oh here's michael
stop okay here's uh john jones from uh allentown pennsylvania stops okay
they don't have that type of information they don't see you they don't have any
identification of you they don't have any identification to retail at all but
because these ideas are taught across the board the same way because it's
been put out there to be done this way because eventually if you're if you are
an accurate trader that's a
23:52
 37

retail based trader okay eventually if you're profitable to some degree what
eventually happens to some of these people they get very high-minded of
themselves they think then they're great at what they're doing so therefore
they're profitable and the first thing they want to do is prove it to the world by
having everyone else give them their money and they're going to be a trader
that manages funds no one wakes up and is born a large fund trader they
come up through the ranks of being a profitable retail trader so are they
24:21
going to come into that realm and change the way they've been doing things
absolutely not it's the same thing they're going to do there then the difference
is they have a process on the fund level that they have to go through specific
parameters and guidelines and stay within these to be compliant with whoever
is running that uh that operation behind the scenes in other words just
because you're a large fund manager unless you're operating alone and
independent if you go to work for an agency and you are a fund trader
24:51
and you're managing under their umbrella then you have guidelines you have
to work within there's there's rules and things that you can't do outside of
these or you're you're you know you basically get canned you're out the door
you're gone you can't manage anything don't you know they'll expel you but
these ideas are the same so how can an algorithm or a computer will just say
it like this how can a computer program know where everyone's stop is it has
to have a range of data
25:22
now just because we have the the numbers of price the value of price okay
they have to have a look back period the look pack period is 20 days 40 days
and 60 days and what you're doing is and this is what i want you to do with
your your time after today's teaching while you're waiting for today's daily
recap video because there'll be two bits go up this is the teaching video for
today and then we'll have a daily review where i do like 10 15 minutes talking
about what's already happened
25:52
and i'll give you the charts and stuff to study i want you to spend your time this
evening okay and even tomorrow while we're not doing any live session go
back through your charts and don't just look at the australian dollar look at
every currency pair look at every commodity look at individual stocks look at
indices and you'll see quickly by studying this it will become quickly clear that
there's no randomness to it there's a specific pattern that this thing does all
the time now it used to be
26:23
a manual thing where the market maker was a real person they sat there and
they worked with a team of individuals that manipulated price to do these very
things but because everything has become so streamlined and efficient by
artificial intelligence ai the uh the effectiveness of algorithms okay that's been
implemented now it's much more efficient to do that and there's no emotion it
just does what it needs to do so if it's a computer program or i'm quoting with
my fingers now the interbank price delivery algorithm that
26:57
computer program we're going to call it from this point on for this teaching for
it to be effective it has to know where to look at to find stops they don't see
 38

orders that's not what's going on they don't see orders the orders are
executed on by the traders at the bank level the algorithm just permits the
price to move to that level which gives the opportunity for the traders to
execute on that run that's the real story that's what really goes on everybody
else out there in this industry will tell you well it's this
27:33
happening and this this guy here he's he's pushing a button and it's doing this
to have no it's not it's not that's not what's happening at all the algorithm will
look back 60 days and it'll find it's very easy if you if you know anything about
computer programming and you don't even have to do that but just look at this
first of november if you look back 60 days in the past what was the highest
high in the last 60 days there's going to be buy stops above that high what's
the lowest low in the last
28:03
60 days there's going to be cell stops below that low in the last 40 days what
was the last highest high and what was the last lowest low looking back in the
range to the left from that november red line that we're dealing in november
where are the stops below and above those highs inside of the range of 20
days 40 days and 60 days now i already know what some of you are thinking
what happens if there's a low that's really really obvious that's just outside the
range of 60 days that's the
28:38
farthest extreme that's when the open float will move aggressively and go
outside that normal parameter of 60 days and you'll see that big run the
market will jump and skip right down into that old low that's just outside that 60
day range how do you know when it's going to be an explosive move michael
when you have that scenario if the last 60 days if they've already ran out the
the stops below and low in the last 60 days or above an old high in the last 60
days and there is a larger higher high
29:14
or lower low where the stocks will be resting above or below respectively then
you know there's going to be a big run on price and they're going to run for
that liquidity because that's the only other thing that's left the large funds have
their orders above and below these old highs and lows you work just like the
algorithm will in a 60-day range look back the last 60 days and then you watch
going forward you cast forward 60 days and you can literally have this on your
chart you go forward count forward 60 days you can
29:47
literally go on your daily chart in mt4 and change your date 60 days forward to
make a vertical line and that way as price starts to paint you'll know you're
approaching that 60 day that means it's going to be forming some measurable
intermediate term high or low before that time and it's going to create a
liquidity pool above an old high or below no low that's going to be influential
for future trades the same thing occurs by looking back on the last 40 days to
the left of that november 1st
30:16
look back 40 days what was the lowest low what was the highest low i'm sorry
what was the highest high rather and the lowest low your buy stops above the
old high and the sell stops below that old low inside of that range of 40 days
that's where ipta will look for that liquidity now it's not giving you directional
 39

bias yet i'm telling you it needs to use these reference points to find where the
stops would logically be see the ai cannot it can't think for a human it can't do
that but because human
30:49
nature says that we will as traders put our sell stop below a low and we will
put a buy stop above an old high that's all the algorithms doing it's seeking to
take price to that level when it gets to that level then your broker then the
central bank can do a wild spike and send it above 10 to 20 pips think about it
now 10 to 20 pips then becomes logical why they do those big spikes okay
intraday 20 and 10 and 20 pips above and over high then it stops rate many
times rate at 20 pips or 10 pips and then rejects
31:28
it goes the other way it first has to get to those levels based on a daily chart in
the realm of a 20 pip 40 i'm sorry 20 day 40 day or 60 day look back and then
cast forward so really what you're doing is you have 120 days of range from
the past and going forward there's going to be a significant move now some of
your press of course there's going to be a move michael come on i mean a lot
can happen in 120 days yeah you're right but there's things that you have to
look for that the algorithm is going to be
32:00
doing to engineer these types of moves you have to have these data points to
know why the market's going to go at an old low what old low well where's the
lowest low in the last 20 days where's the last 40 days where's the lowest low
in that range where's the highest high in that last range and you need to be
noting those because that's the one that they're going to run they're going to
run rate for those if there isn't anything that hasn't been traded to in the last 60
days if
32:31
everything's been wiped out above and below the marketplace in other words
the open float all the buy stops above old highs and all the sell stocks below
all those in the last 68 darn your look back in other words everything to the left
of that november vertical line at red line if everything's been cleaned out
above and below the highs and lows there's no more buy stops there's no
more cell stops it has to create a new expansion so you have to identify what
the next high and low outside that range of 60 days
33:02
looking back where that is and that's going to tell you where they're going to
draw a price on this daily time frame it's more it's more confirmed when you
start applying it to the weekly chart in the monthly chart because you'll start
seeing things align where that old low that's just outside of the last 60 days
looking back there's an old low that may not be on this chart here i don't know
i'm just giving you a hypothetical example if there's an old load it's just outside
33:29
the realm of september in this example here say maybe there's august there's
a significant lower low the market's going to reach for that there may be a high
that's just outside the september boundary in august they may have turned
around here and they make a run for that maybe it may be in the 78th uh price
range for uh for aussie that's what you would be noting and you're going to
look for price to be drawn to one of those two price points and you look for
evidences that that institutional order flow is going that
 40

34:01
direction then you know where it's going it gives you directional bias because
of the higher time frame nature of this daily chart and weekly and monthly so
what we have here this is the look forward okay or cast forward of november
this is 20 days out from the 1st of november so we have 20 days here inside
of that 20 day range there's going to be a significant setup that you can use
for your trading it's moving up into the old load that was formed in october it
goes into consolidation well here we have a condition where the market didn't
34:42
create any significant shift but it starts to move in consolidation then you count
forward okay from here that's the 20th so you can go from the beginning of
november to the 20th yes there was a price swing but using the information
next stage would be 40 days out from that price point of november beginning
we have here that is your 40-day lookout or cast forward and you're looking
for again a potential major shift quarterly it can happen at that point now it
didn't give you the lowest low because if you go back to the left
35:20
two two daily candles or bars the last down right here this down candle that
was the actual low we had a small little range in here and then we came down
and hit this level here 71.50 that's the 40 days out from the beginning of
november framed on the quarterly shift that took place here so we're
anticipating a potential change in in the direction okay 20 40 or 60 days out
but that's the range it's not always going to do like what you're seeing here
where it's almost calling the very day
36:00
it moves and makes the change it's you're allowing your study to say okay the
price is going to move about 20 days and then we could see something if it
doesn't happen in 20 days okay well in the next 20 days up to 40 days from
where the market structure last shifted here quarterly then we're going to
anticipate in the realm of the next 20 days it may happen so you have to be
looking for signs that it's going to happen if you don't do these things you're
going to marry the idea that the
36:29
market's going to keep on going lower and never turn around it doesn't it
doesn't do that mark is not trading straight lines so if we see here on this day
here this is 40 days out from the beginning of november very significant price
move occurred from that price 71.50 i mean i would think everyone if we were
all in the same room if we raised our hand if we were in agreement i think the
majority of us if not all of us would raise our hand say that's a pretty significant
move off that level one of the things i learned when i was
36:59
an indicator based trader i'd like to stochastic i like larry williams accumulation
distribution formula where it plotted an accumulative line based on the
relationship to open the close and closed open and measuring that as some
smart money buying and selling well sometimes that's true not always and it
didn't always give you a divergence i liked his william percent art and the
reason why i liked his william percent are is because it has an uncanny ability
to be one day before like if you look at stochastic you have
37:35
 41

to wait for the the candle to close and go to a new candle to see if the k line
crossed the d line or d line across the uh the k line or whatever it is i don't
even remember what it was anymore but the the trigger line that uses uh the
idea behind a crossover for stats for a stochastic that has to happen after the
fact well the market's already moved when i looked at the percent r what that
did it gave me many times the day before the real oversold condition would
happen for instance if the oversold condition existed in williams
38:06
percent r today that means tomorrow it's probably still likely to go down just a
little bit more but that's going to be the buy day that's a very low low well that
same phenomenon sometimes occurs with these ranges 20 days out you may
get the if it doesn't turn it may happen on the 21st day or it may occur on the
19th day when the when it does occur but that's not what you're relying on so
it's important that while that may have magic in your chart sometimes you may
see it happen it might do the very thing of
38:38
turning on the 20th day or the 40th day or the 60th day and you saw that in
my first teaching for the month i wish i probably would have stressed it more
because everyone seems to think that that's what's going to happen i i'm not
telling you the market turns every 20 days every 40 days and every 60 days
but it can and will sometimes do that what we're looking for is these quarterly
shifts that take place once we identify one there's our beginning point okay but
you have to roll back to the beginning of
39:09
that month it occurs in it occurred in the second week of uh of the month of
november so we're now we're calibrated now we can start going forward until
we see a equal or counterparty uh to that move going lower it has to be a
significant um you know retracement or correction or reversal it's indicating
that here the last week of december why is it doing that because we've taken
out december's high see that we're trading at a level where if this was
continuously bearish it shouldn't be where it's at right now
39:42
today okay but my point in drawing your attention to the 40 day is it was not
the 40th uh i'm sorry it wasn't the fact that it made the lowest low and turned
on that day but look at the low in proximity to the lowest low that was formed
here inside to see this day here was inside the range of 40 days back to this
point price point here so from this level of looking at the first day of november
casting forward 40 days this whole turning point right here could have
happened any time in the last 40 days now again that for the summers that
are
40:18
cynical of course obviously this this is of no value it's a great deal of value
because inside that 40 days just like when we look back for 40 days and look
for the low for sell stops and we look for the high for the buy stops in this
range here what is this that's a low below that low is going to be what cell
stops yes we moved about 150 pips or so below that but we came to a level of
71.
40:53
50 that's not random 7150 is a significant level it's a mid figure level and it's
happening at a time when inside of 40 days the if the data range is going to
 42

be looking to do something it has it has to do something every three months

price is going to be pushed around it's going to be drawn to a level or it's
going to repel from a level and it's based on what i'm telling you here it's
seeking large fund liquidity now longer term where we're talking about monthly
and yearly moves they are all driven by real fundamental things
41:31
like interest rates but every quarter there's going to be a ebb and flow that
takes place a rally and a decline when this occurs that's all short-term in
nature when you look at long-term trends that go for five years or 10 years
three months is nothing that's like a five minute chart on the scheme of a
weekly chart it doesn't mean anything there's no significance to it at all long-
term macro fundamentals okay are not impacted by three-month cycles
they're not they can be used to get in sync with
42:05
long-term macro fundamentals but the only fundamentals you're going to get
from me is interest rates which is going to talk to you this month as well so
again in summary the 40 days and i'm not done teaching but for 40 days this
range we're looking back because you know here we have a new 40-day look
we're casting forward 40 days so that at that moment we're gonna have that in
our charts from this point here we know 40 days from then this is where we
would have our expectation of a shift but we also because we can do that in
42:36
advance we can now look back 20 days from there we can look 40 days back
from there where's the lows and where's the highs think about that if we know
at this point here casting 40 days forward we can have a vertical line right
here on our on our charts now to someone looking over your shoulder they'd
be like why is that line even there why do you have a vertical line there i don't
know i ain't telling you you weren't part of the mentorship but from this point
here counting back that's good here's here's gotta count
43:11
this day as day one one two three four five six seven eight nine 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20. okay to 20 is basically the the last day before you get to
december so the second to the last day of november is 20 days back what
was the highest high formed in that range it's going to be mid july uh mid
december where it made those equal highs so there's going to be what's
resting above that buy stops so what is the ipta algorithm going to do it's going
to seek that liquidity it's going to go up there and take that
43:54
which high should i look for michael that one looking back from this point here
because we know it from this point here casting forward 40 days okay going
back 40 days well that's going to be in the range that's delineated here with
this line that we've already shown this is the low is there any significance
about that low well i'll count you to go into your 4 hour 1 hour and 15 minute
time frame and put up 7300 on your aussie dollar and see what you see
there's nothing random about this stuff
44:28
folks that low is 40 days inside the 40 day range okay that is a significant
turning point it's not the very lowest low but you can see that the low forms
two days before that and then we have a market structure shift and the market
starts to go opposite to what has been put in place in november you can now
 43

also from that price point there by having a vertical line on the arrowed daily
range you can now start counting forward 20 days 40 days 60 days until you
see an obvious shift quarterly there's a major structure shift okay it
45:14
could be bullish or bearish whatever one it happens it doesn't make it that
you're not trying to forecast that all you're doing is anticipating another
significant move in price on a daily chart and it happens every three months
but the point is the the if the data ranges give you a means of looking back 20
40 and 60 days from specific days and specific price points because then
you'll know what stops they're going to be reaching for above the old high and
below an old low it's not just well i'm looking for the
45:47
most recent obvious high and low no no no no it's not like that at all it's not like
that at all you got to look back in a range of 20 40 and 60 and then if all those
levels have been cleared out then you gotta look outside that range then you
know you're getting may see a big move and if it has these characteristics
then you know you're going to see a larger move higher or lower based on
what those uh highs and lows would be outside the most recent 60-day.
 44

the australian
46:18
dollar candlestick you can uh rest your eyes a little bit and then we're straining
your eyes on the open high-low enclosed bar here's that 70-50 level okay and
why is that significant here we have a old low back in february of 2016 we
have a last down candle but that last down candle has a range in it okay let
me show you again this is what it looks like that wick right in here right here
look at that price movement up right before the last it was the last week of
february the big green candle right there we know that prior to that we saw
46:56
the down close and that explosive range higher that high is going to be
significant it's going to be sensitive okay but all the way down into the opening
of that weekly range also notice that this last down candle here right before
this big move up in the last week of may of 2016 that last red candle that was
the bullish order block as well so we have a big range to work within then
going into the latter portions of 2016 the last down candle in december that
would be a bullish order block as well looking at the the high and the open on
47:39
that candle would give you significant price points to go forward as well but
look what happens when price hits this 70 150 level it's been down here
before and they repelled aggressively away from that fundamentally must be
something to it i don't know what it is but on a weekly chart we're going to be
using old highs and old lows and if those old highs and old lows had
significant buying and selling pressures it's evidence and you can see it here
we have to be mindful of that and you can see that they have in fact
48:10
traded down there we tapped it two times on a weekly basis and then moved
out once we moved out away from that level you'd see that they're going to be
looking to do what they're going to be trading above these candles bodies and
the wicks are next and we could potentially trade up into this last up candle in
the last week of october of 2016.
48:35
that's where the bearish order block is so we have a range that potentially
could take us up into 75 70 to 75.80 still for australian dollar let's go back into
the daily or australian dollar and i want you to take a look at this chart for a
moment stare at this for a second tell me what you see okay this is again this
 45

is the march contract for the australian futures market it's going to basically do
the same thing our australian dollar pair does in forex but what you're seeing
here cannot be seen in trading forex and er all these guys
49:17
that get on facebook and on the internet and twitter and they know everything
about forex and they know the insides and then and everything that's secret
okay the buzzword smart money and now it's institutional trading everything is
making its way in everybody else's curriculum now but none of them talk
about this okay and this is where i learned the things that larry williams taught
in his book how i made a million dollars trading commodities last year wrote
that book in the 70s folks you know we're in 2017 now
49:51
very very few things have the longevity of what has been taught in his book i
mean for less than it costs for a pair of shoes today you literally can buy a
book that if you have no understanding about how commodities move and
how they're priced and all that business uh to me i think that is an essential
part of every trader's library again the title is how i made a million dollars
trading commodities last year by larry williams in his book he talks about how
he was taught he didn't discover it he was taught this by
50:24
his friend and i think if i'm not mistaken i think he names his friend in that book
but the uh if not you can find it on youtube you do a search on larry williams
and open interest but the the fact that open interest is the most misunderstood
data point in trading is a wonderful opportunity for you as a trader if there is
now thing think just for a second if there is 100 control over price there has to
be someone controlling it we're going to globally call that smart money if they
are controlling it why would they want to control it
51:06
greed they want to make money just like anybody else does banks are not in
the business to go out of business they're in business to buy and sell money
or provide means for you to borrow money to pay them interest on the usage
of that money that's just one facet of it there's also speculation that is the mis
most misunderstood realm because it's not widely talked about you have to be
in that arena you have to be there to know anything about it and you are
forced to not talk about anything so i had to create a
51:45
language if you will okay to be able to talk where the things i understood are
effectively communicated but also doesn't put me out there where i'm in
trouble that's why we are in this teachings uh this this medium the things that i
quickly learned that were apparent in the marketplace is that yes there is a
entity out there that is 100 interested in offsetting large funds because they
have real huge orders in the marketplace and if they can upset them or take
them out of the marketplace they know that their viewpoint will
52:25
eventually get back in line because they're trend filing in nature they can take
them out of the move and take their seat in that position or they can take them
in the wrong side of the move and then reprice aggressively the other way
and they can profit from that they're not looking at owenda or fxcm's books
and saying okay well you know we're going to really punish retail today retail
 46

is just following the you know the blind leader of all these textbooks all that
stuff you know that leads you to losses that's
52:57
a derivative of you doing what you've been told to do and it doesn't have any
basis in how the markets actually work once in a while they will work but
you're not it's not because that it didn't happen because the divergence isn't
stochastic it didn't happen because your wolf wave or your harmonic crab
riding on the back of an eagle's wings pattern doesn't that doesn't happen
okay price is moving based on where the large funds orders are where that
open float is on these higher time frame charts that's
53:26
what's drawing price but because the price is going to allow the bank level
traders to get in and build positions in otherwise if it was really just the central
banks repricing it would be like all the time big moves moving up to an old
high then down to an old low the traders have to have a opportunity to work
inside that position to capitalize on the move that ifta is engineering for them
how do we know when the banks smart money are actually going in and
buying if we know that there's a likelihood that 71.50 when aussie dollar
54:04
is potentially bullish what evidence is there that there is in fact smart money
buying it well inside that blue shaded area in here i have a great deal of
insight to share with you and some of you already know some about
something about this but i want you to think about this every three months this
occurs write this down your notepad if you're busy changing diapers okay
doing dishes hiding from your boss write this down every three months this
pattern occurs where you're at a support level a major higher time frame
support level
54:46
if you see an expectation that price should be bullish we have been trading
lower and we hit the level like we're seeing here at 71.50 as we just let me go
back one more time to show you the weekly chart there's that 7150 level down
here we've been there before in may okay so look at that level here you can
see that 7150 that level has been hit perfectly his nails it okay and it runs
away as price hit it as price hit this level here this purple line in here i want
you to look at what was going on as price was
55:29
dropping down okay all through this market structure shift in november okay
what's happening here yes prices repricing going lower it's allowing bank level
traders to be short and capitalize on that move but also open interest is also
declining why why is that happening why is open interest declining when this
moves dropping down what what significance is that because if you read larry
williams book he says his buddy told him if the market is in consolidation all
through here all between 77 and 74.50 for august september and october
56:14
price was in a big trading range it's in consolidation then in november it
creates a false breakout above 77 big figure and rejects and trades lower
open interest is taught that as long as a trend is going up or down and you
see open interest increasing as the trend goes that's a healthy trend that
works for bull markets doesn't work for down markets that's a misnomer that's
 47

misinformation larry williams says when open interest drops while you're in
consolidation we're in consolidation all through
56:48
august september and october price drops down in here we have a big drop in
open interest open interest is the total open longs and shorts that are in the
marketplace right now if the central bank is the storehouse for price it's their
currency it's their commodity if you are trying to buy currency it has to be
made available to you and it's going to come from a bank if this would have
been gold okay uh the commodity is gold is there's a a provider or a liquidity
provider of gold okay you have to buy up this position or
57:26
assume a position in gold well for australian dollar if you're buying that
currency it has to come from somewhere it comes from the bank so if they are
the liquidity provider for the price of australian dollar the central bank of
australia if that bank is providing you the basis of the valuation on australian
dollars they are essentially doing what they're the counterparty to all the large
funds not always not 100 percent because you have all kinds of smaller
entities and institutions that could take the other
58:01
side of other positions but from for the most part view open interest as every
trade that the central bank is providing counterparty to basically what a small
brokerage firm would do with their own clients they are the liquidity provider
well the central bank is the liquidity provider for australian dollar so if we see
open interest increasing what does that mean that means the central bank is
it's taking on risk it's providing liquidity for buyers of australian dollar if open
interest has a 15 or more
58:38
drop or change lower like it does here this is extended this is a very significant
drop while price is sideways this is bullish because what this is doing is every
every time open interest increases it's indicating that they have now provided
liquidity for a buyer if they're not trying to provide liquidity for a buyer and
they're trying to reduce their holding or exposure that means that they're not
doing what to offer liquidity to a buyer they have to be a seller open interest
reflects the selling side
59:13
of a provider of liquidity if this open interest declines aggressively like this
that's indicating they do not want to hold the heavy short position they would
be having by being a provider for those that want to buy australian dollar you
see it rally then but look carefully the extended trading range is months long
what's going on that whole time from this point here they start building in
positions they're selling this thing as it's creating higher highs it's coming back
it's they're selling more of it here
59:48
and they're selling more over here every peak in the open interest from the
low it creates here every peak in it is a high they sold more here they sold
more here right at this high they sold the most right there they're selling into
that rally you don't get that from leah williams book you do get him saying
open interest increases when we're in bearish markets and then for the
consolidation it tells you if we see open interest increasing in a consolidation
that means that the open interest is reflecting heavy net
 48

1:00:22
selling on the central bank level that's how i'm viewing it for currency trading
but what he taught in his book was the commercial traders the large
commercial users and producers of a commodity they're actually building in
heavy short positions what i learned was by looking at open interest and
matching up the highs to the peaks and open interest you can actually see
where they did their cell programs that's a sell they're selling it here and in the
very highest peak they sold it there now
1:00:49
think about it if they sold it there and then we do have a market structure shift
here are they gonna hold on to their short positions if they're naturally a
hedger open interest is going to by natural order of things reduce as it's going
lower because what are they doing they're covering those short positions they
built in here that's what's happening all through this process of going lower
open interest is declining you don't get taught in textbooks it's showing you
that they are in fact
1:01:16
in a cell program and they're profit taking as it's going lower lower lower lower
lower open interest is going to decline then we hit a level like this major
support are they going to want to hold on to a heavy net short position by
offering liquidity to the buyers no way how do they upset that they do rapid
price declines that knocks the desire for buyers that want to move away and
get out of their way because they don't want to be a provider and by by
providing the sell side to buyers they don't want that risk and that's why
1:01:49
they do these massive sell-offs in price you see these big moves that jump
down to specific levels and they just keep going lower and lower lower they do
that to take away and control sentiment on the near term you may have been
bullish back here well that goes away real quick when they do this and they
would keep driving lower all of a sudden there's no support levels until you get
down to 71.
1:02:12
50 they know buyers are going to come in so they have to reset and drop
down quick boom they reset they take all their interest on being a sell side
liquidity provider and drop it down to its lowest point why are they doing that
because now their exposure is not here their exposure starts down here and
they go back to that same cycle now everybody's signing a buy buy buy buy
and they will provide that liquidity because they've already profited down here
from back here back here and back here all in the last
1:02:47
week of september the midpoint of october and the second week of november
where they sold and built in their bearish positions the telltale sign is inside
that support level at 71.50 dovetailing this with if the data ranges and quarterly
shifts we know that this is most likely going to occur and move all z dollar up
and go back into the charts and go back into what i was talking about for
australian dollar i told you that it was going to go higher this is not hindsight
cherry picking i'm telling you why i
1:03:18
said these things and what was behind the scenes that i can't go through i
mean look how much we're talking about it now if i did this kind of talk on
 49

everything and every setup every single day i'd never get done i'd never see
my wife and probably be divorced really quick but these are the things that
you're going to do in your analysis it won't take this long obviously you'll know
what you're looking for because of the teachings but the mechanics behind it
all is that 7150 is support
1:03:43
price on the weekly charts bounced there before we're in the low end of the
the range for the weekly um um well the lowest point which has been in a long
period of time going back to go back to your weekly chart that i showed here
in your notes and you'll see that that's the lowest it's been in recent time in the
weekly chart so therefore it would be reasonable expect to see some bounce
at 71.
1:04:11
50 but i'm drawing your attention to that little area in december that little
massive really it's a massive decline in open interest right there that purple
line when it tanked went low real quick like that that's the central bank getting
rid of any of their remaining short position so now they're they're done they
completed their cell program first week of november mid part of december so
now the they're ready they're prepared for buyers to come in they have reset
their self there's no exposure on the upside okay against them by holding
heavy heavy
1:04:50
shorts so now they can start offering that liquidity from the low end because
they made their book from 77.50 all the way down to 71.50 600 pips and
believe me they're moving size on all that so from that point on okay we had
that delineation on this candle or bar remember earlier and looking back 20
trading days we put you right about in here that means the high is here that's
where they're going to run liquidity that's where they're going to be seeking to
take price.
 50

that 40 day cast forward day that's the very day and this is that down candle
or down open high low close candle that small little one and then here's the
the last one or the 40 day look forward from the first of november price goes
higher from there creates a down candle price moves above that candle here
this becomes a bullish order block so if price was to ever come back down we
could be a buyer there i said we'd like to see some bullishness
1:06:04
on this candle here because we're on the left side of the curve this is all the
cell side now if you're going to be bullish you're going to go look over here at
every down candle there should be some bullishness in here we saw some of
that they have a down candle here if we had a retracement i would like to see
it price come back down here i would be a buyer that was a potential scenario
that could have unfolded if it didn't and we blew out the high of this candle this
down candle is going to be the new
1:06:31
bullish order block so it's high comes in at 70 350 price comes down hits it
here yesterday finds some sensitivity there and expands up and closes in the
range the context of the move for australian dollar was i was not bearish
australian dollar i did not have you set up to expect lower prices on the
australian dollar we were looking for this thing to come up here and close in
 51

this range and potentially up into this bearish order block and it's now
confirmed that it wants to go higher relative to the things we just said
1:07:01
based on that weekly chart and we described on the futures contract on its
own daily chart we had a mean threshold of the range from this candles open
to this candles close that's what this range is here we've moved through that
so now what is it indicating it wants to go higher what's it going to reach for it's
going to look for a clear run above this high here because that's where the
buy stops are resting they're not going to take it just to this level here and be
satisfied if they're going to allow this move to take
1:07:32
place they're going to punch it through equal highs now i know you're saying if
you if you're new and you haven't really paid too much attention to and equal
those and you're only looking for like a perfect equal candle height this is in
my opinion this is an equal level it's so close to one another in terms of
proximity if you look at the buys of the cam they're almost the same i mean
look at that i mean we have the open on this candle and the clothes on this
candle since it's the same thing we
1:08:02
only have this one little wick so the liquidity really is above here and in my
opinion it's going to go above this level here so that puts us around that 75 70
to 75 80 level like we talked about relative to that weekly chart so by taking
this information and applying it to your charts it helps you map out while you
have areas where yes this could happen we could trade down here but if it did
we were buying we would be expecting to be a buyer down there it may not
happen they may allow price to keep on going
1:08:37
and give you no real retracement but you still had reference points to be
watching and monitoring going forward this was the new down candle okay it's
going to be a bullish order block so therefore we should not see this candle
give way if it trades through it it did it traded above its high so now this has
become the support level this level is where the banks are going to look to
defend it on the downside so any movement into it like we see here this
candle trades into the body and quickly rejects the next day it opens
1:09:06
trades down it hits the bodies i'm sorry the candle it's high it's 73 55 goes a
little bit below look at the low 73 52 it only went three pips below the level we
would be watching for and then look at the aggressive move through it trading
in delivering price with a bullish side of price buy side delivery we had all
down movement here between 74 34 and 73.
1:09:31
80 prices moved from 738-7434 yesterday so having that having that move
from 7380 to 7434 it closed in that fair value gap that we've we've been
monitoring that occurred in december 2016 and then prices move through the
mean threshold it's obvious that we'll see a move above that 75 25 level how
much further like i said 75 80 looks likely and if we do that we could really
make a run all the way up into uh 76 i'd say 76.50 so 76.50 is likely upside
1:10:38
objective if we get really rolling higher but apart from that uh that that was the
uh the dna or anatomy if you will of why the australian dollar moved up why
 52

we were expecting bullishness on it uh behind the scenes these higher time

frame ideas that you're learning you have to learn to trust them on these
monthly weekly and daily in applying open interest to levels that you would
expect to see bullishness in every three months okay and this is the last point
and we're going to close today's teaching
1:11:11
the point at which these three month to four month moves that take place
every quarter there's a major shift in market structure and while that may not
undo the long-term bullish or bearish moves they are executable in a way
where you can make great deal of money you can take a lot of money out of
positions if you're properly aligned if you are not aware of these they will take
you by surprise and you're like where'd this come from you know there's you
know there's no worse feeling than
1:11:44
expecting a move to go hard one direction and then see it do something like
this like for instance if you're looking at this move here and say you were a
fibonacci trader not necessarily optimal trade entry but say you were a
fibonacci trader and you saw the 50 level here there's a guy on baby pips that
makes a name for himself on trading at 50 level fibs and i i use that as
equilibrium but you could be looking at that say okay yeah and this day you
would have probably felt good about the whole idea of being bearish on
australian dollar
1:12:19
not by what we've been talking about and we mapped out very specific we
even talked about that very day being bullish but in the retail mind this whole
day right here that would look like okay well we have a double top now it's at a
50 level in the fib it's going to go down and trade down below here or i'll do i'll
do an abcd type move and i'll be looking for 70s on the australian dollar that's
retail thinking we were not thinking that at all we're mapping that candle out as
a reason to be a buyer
1:12:49
so the things you're learning is completely diametrically opposed to those
things that you learn in the retail world and it's like that because we have to
capitalize on those ideas because those things permeate large fund trading
where the buy stops where the cell stops it's the same way human nature is
going to repeat itself every large fun trader starts as a low end trader just like
you are right now just like i started grassroots we all start from the same place
the beginning no one becomes a large fun trader
1:13:18
managing billions and millions of dollars because you just felt like you want to
do it today try it try today if you're successful today try to get a large fund
traders position by the end of the month you can do that i'll send you one
million dollars through paypal you have to do some things you got to prove
you know you can trade okay and you have to go through a lot of uh rick
morrow if you will if my if i can quote my grandmother to get to that that
position you have to prove yourself it doesn't
1:13:45
happen by accident so if they are doing the very things they did as a regular
trader but they still have to do things with guidelines okay then it's common
sense that their stops are going to be rate where everyone else is going to be
 53

placing their stops but they have a lot more money at risk they have exposure
that you don't have you're trading micro lots and mini lots and all these other
things and i'm not trying to disparage you or or you talk down to you because i
started the same way i started with small stuff
1:14:15
but they don't see you you're not even a blip on the radar screen but they do
see these large pending orders above old highs and below lows in the last 60
days in the last 40 days in the last 20 days and once you find a time marker
where you can delineate when there's a shift that has taken place or when
you cast forward 60 days at that moment you know in the future 60 days from
that last market structure shift quarterly you know that's a delineation in the in
the future so you can already anticipate a significant move 20 days
1:14:48
from that one back from it which would be not 40 days it would be 20 days
back from that new market uh delineation so for what i'm saying is by having
these things on your chart you'll be able to look backwards and forwards and
looking for the ranges just like the ipta algorithm will look for where the most
recent 20 day 40 day and 60 day stops are if they have been cleared out on
both sides of the marketplace once they have been wiped out and we're in
equilibrium you have to look at where the next range high and low is outside
1:15:25
of the last 20 i'm sorry last 60 days that will tell you where the next big
significant move is going to be and if you combine that with weekly and
monthly charts it's almost like a no-brainer you just have to wait for it to
happen it takes time for that to unfold and most of us by human nature are not
patient we're impatient some of the folks that have left this mentorship are
classic scenarios of that they're just impatient they want to know it right away
they wanted to learn it all in one month you
1:15:53
know they stuck it out for the second month the third month the fourth month it
was too much i can't wait for it i gotta go okay i gotta just gotta toss it in and
they'll be they'll regret the rest of their life trust me they're gonna regret it
when they look back they're going to feel like they've missed the opportunity
of a lifetime and they have what you're learning you're not going to get that
from anywhere else but it's going to require you to work for it i'm going to put
your nose right where you
1:16:17
need to be focusing but i cannot take away the lessons that by studying it will
give you that has to happen by you doing it and if you can't be here in the live
sessions they're recorded it's the same thing there's nothing different by
watching the recording when we leave january's content we're gonna be
applying all these things so that way when you start looking at me doing short
term trading and weekly one shot one kill setups and we go deeper into the
mentorship when we start going
1:16:44
back into intraday trading you'll see all these things are the reasons why i'm
being a buyer or a seller in london open or a buyer and seller in new york
session and why these levels i'm keying off of and telling you everything that
you saw us doing in the september month where we were nailing highs and
lows what the market was doing almost daily all that was was me applying
 54

what i just showed you in this teaching i just didn't go through all the the
mechanics behind it all i just knew it and applied it and just talked about it
1:17:13
just you know whatever this is what's going on and it gives you a great deal of
confidence and for some of you it will create an air of arrogance don't let that
become don't let it define you but you definitely will have a level of confidence
this goes through the roof because you're going to know with a great deal of
trust that the market is trying to get to a level for a real reason and it's being
manipulated it's being controlled it's being driven there it has no other way of
operating except for over time
1:17:50
price will agree on a level that's arrived at what ipda is seeking last 60 days
where's the high and the low last 40 days where's the high and the low last 20
days where's the high in the low that's where your liquidity pools are okay last
20 days where is the gaps where are the gaps in the last 40 days where is the
gaps in the last 60 days that's where all your fair value levels are think about it
what's where's the consolidations in the last 20 days the last 40 days in the
last 60 days that's
1:18:25
where your equilibrium price points are going to be when the market isn't
going to move it's going to gravitate and hang at those levels when you see
me say i'm not doing it today the market's going to be sideways and you're all
like well how did you know that this what i just taught you today how to use
the data ranges house tells you what you should be doing should you be
expecting range expansion on the upside should you be expecting range
expansion on the downside that is directional bias
1:18:52
that's are you bullish today or are you bearish today if you are not in a range
where it's going to expand and you're hanging around equilibrium in the last
20 days the last 40 days and last 60 days in other words what's that look like if
you go back 60 days and you see where price has made a small little trading
range divide that range in half that's equilibrium if your price right now today is
just hanging around and dollar index is not trying to move it's probably going
to be a z day that means
1:19:20
it's going to go up a little bit down a little bit and hang around the middle of
range until it gets some kind of manipulation what's going to cause that high
impact news which is the reason why i started you in september looking at the
high impact and medium impact news events for the week draw those things
together everything that you've been exposed to so far for the mentorship
draw all those things together and apply the if the data ranges now all of you
are trying to over complicate it and it's probably my fault because of
1:19:48
the way i taught it and believe me it's a lot of things to digest it's not simply 60
40 and 20 and therefore everything unlocks you have to use those ranges
looking back and see where the highs and lows are where the gaps are where
the fair value gaps are where equilibrium is and it'll tell you where the
institutional reference points are it's up to you to execute on them when they
get to those levels based on what a weekly chart and daily chart is indicating
bullishness for variousness just because it goes above an old high
 55

1:20:22
doesn't mean it's a cell it could be the confirmation is going to go to the next
buy stop level above it that's the next stage of january's content where we
start building the ideas of okay using a monthly and the weekly and a daily
chart nothing less than that what do we do what do we look for what's the
process what sets up the trades on these time frames because if we can
identify and prove that this is what goes on in price it does these types of
things that are repeating phenomenon going back to our
1:20:55
algorithm idea and computer program analogy if the nose simply by going
back what's today's date everybody knows what today's date is it's january 12
2017. the computer programmer can can gather that information okay so
what's 60 days from that backwards in time okay then the algorithm will simply
say okay what's the highest value of that asset that it traded to okay right
there so now i need to go back up to that level that's what it's going to do it's
going to go up there to allow
1:21:32
the bank traders to position themselves once it gets close to that level then
the bank level and broker level interventions and manipulations can come in
but the the broker is not going to jump your spread 50 to 100 pips the central
bank has to get it in close proximity to these levels then the lower level
manipulation that takes place in broker level that's when that happens but
your broker is not killing you and wiping you out with 50 pip swings that
doesn't happen it has to allow price to be driven there and that's all central
1:22:07
bank level so i threw a lot at you today children uh hopefully uh i haven't
confused any of you hopefully uh i've given more clarity um you're gonna see
examples of me actually using this information um but i have to give it to you
conceptually first so that way i won't be uh inundated with a million questions
about why did you put a line here watch out you'll know why i'm doing it
because i when i explain it based on what i've talked about here and what i've
shown in the lesson 101.1
1:22:38
for january it'll it'll start making sense because we're not just going to do this
one time and never come back to it we're going to be doing this throughout
the mentorship and if you i'm not saying you should but when i start the signal
service in the winter of 2017 um you'll know why i'm dealing with certain
signals then if you if you're able to watch it some of you will probably want just
to see what you know what i'm doing just to see how it lines up with what you
learn but the
1:23:07
the signals are all going to be based on what you're seeing here and it's why
they're going to be so good that's why september was so powerful i had to
show you that yes we can read price it's very predictable and if it's that
predictable on the short term then it has to be that predictable in the higher
time frame and you see now that it can be it's all time and price time and price
time is date on the higher time frame it's not time of day it's date calendar
days and they're calendar days that the
1:23:41
 56

markets trade so if we know there's a range of 20 40 and 60 days that the

algorithm will look back then you know what high and loading you'd be
focusing on if market structure is bearish what does that tell you where's the
loan the last 20 days where's the loan last 40 days where's the loan last 60
days that's where it's going to be reaching for it's looking for that sell side
liquidity below those lows what happens if it has two lower lows that haven't
been traded to and it trades down below the one
1:24:12
in the last 20 days it takes that low out and as a lower low 60 days in that
range 60 days back there's a low and you know that it's possibly going to go
down there but say it doesn't go down there and it rejects and it breaks market
structure bullish what does that tell you you have a quarterly shift now it's
bullish [ __ ] start finding the highs in the last 20 days last 40 days and last 60
days and you'll know what if there's dealing it's going to draw a price up to
them everyone else is going to be
1:24:38
looking at retail thinking okay this is a trend it's downtrend they're going to
look for that old low 60 days out not because they're doing what we're doing
but they're going to see classic support resistance ideas and they hold on to it
they marry the idea it's getting going down it's been going down so therefore it
must continuously keep going down and they just watch the market grind
against them and all of a sudden we see what we're seeing in the chart right
now australian dollar what happened
1:25:01
what happened look look at the forums just for fun today what happened with
an australian dollar i haven't been there yet i'm just prophesying they're
probably saying what happened australian dollar well you all know what's
happened in the australian dollar we talked about this before the fact why it's
trading here why it went there and now you know the mechanics behind the
scene what what led me to believe that this 7434 was likely the mean
threshold was uh um upside objective and why this currency's a leadership
1:25:34
currency why'd i focus on this one why why was i talking about this one and
not the new zealand dollar that's a study for you this week as well share that
with me on the forum show me what you discovered by contrasting the price
action just like we just did here for aussie dollar do the same thing with new
zealand do the same thing with euro do it with the cable you have to practice
folks if you only do the things i'm only showing you you're cheating yourself of
all kinds of learning opportunity the time that you
1:26:09
have together believe me you want to maximize it i know some of you have
businesses some of you have family obligations and this is a long-winded
session but you know we only have two of them a week so suck it up the uh
there's so much information i i literally have 20 years of information i'm trying
to share with you and it's a lot of information but this information still has to be
practiced you have to implement it in your charts you have to look for it you
have to see it in your charts if you're not going to
1:26:40
do that this is going to be it's not going to be enchanting for you to be here
you're if you're wanting me to tell you this is how it is and it's always going to
 57

be this way and it doesn't require you to look for it and study it ain't going to
work it's not going to work but you do have to do a little bit of rolling up your
sleeves get your nose in the charts but i promise you this is a guarantee if you
do the things i'm telling you to do in this teaching and everything in this month
of january
1:27:10
it will give you every possible scenario for any type of trader you want to be
and it will put you in the high odds category you'll be in the upper five percent
you'll you will most likely be on the right side and far less time be offside on
your trade and that's what the higher time frame whole idea is about because
you're trying to align yourself with smart money everyone that's on youtube is
teaching smart money this is the market maker i'm on a one-minute chart
teaching this by by the way they're not on a
1:27:37
one-minute chart they're not even down there they don't they don't even
they're not looking at that they're looking at the orders on a daily chart that's
what they're looking at that's what's driving price and outside of that it's a 15-
minute time frame they're looking for liquidity pools and and ideas around a
15-minute time frame five minute again they're not looking at that but you can
use a five-minute chart to find where there's a most likely uh a small little gap
that would not appear
1:28:04
readily on a 15 or an hourly chart so all these things dovetail nicely but you
won't appreciate that dovetailing until you start getting in there and spending
some time looking at price that's already happened some of you a large group
of you are so worried about that right edge tell me what that right edge is
telling you michael when that won't make sense to you and you'll leave the
mentorship if i just gave you trades every day yeah you'd make money but
when i'm done teaching and it's and
1:28:35
that's happening i'm done when i walk away you've made money but you
didn't learn how to trade and that's a waste of time and money you want to be
focusing on what's happened on that left side of that chart because once you
understand all that it's going to repeat itself because if in fact there is a smart
money entity and they are manipulating and they are controlling things
because they're motivated by money and greed they're not going to change
their mo their motive is going to be the same
1:29:04
thing going forward it's the same business model every single day it doesn't
change it's not going to stop working the only thing is is if you share it with
people number one you're just making it common knowledge and just you just
don't want to do it you don't want to do it not because it's going to stop
working but because you just want to be a part of that small group that is
profitable that is an elite that you know what you're doing with your money
you're not gambling this is not
1:29:34
gambling you're not rolling the dice you're waiting for a scenario where those
individuals that control price are in play their moving price and you're on the
same side as them by default you have no other way except for seeing
positive results does that mean profitability maybe if you're in a demo account
 58

you can't make money on that but you learn a positive response and then
therefore it teaches you this worked let me try it again wow this worked let me
try it again why do you think i tell you guys that it
1:30:08
takes a minimum of six months because if you look at the things i teach you
will see at least one market structure shift in that time period you need to see
one because once you understand when it happens and you see it unfolding
oh man the confidence level sends you through the roof you're like oh man i
i'm never doing this again i'm never working for somebody else again i'm
going to learn this business and i'm out of here i'm done i need to do this the
rest of my life and your passion level
1:30:35
will go crazy and you'll know what you're doing you won't be just excited like a
football game fan you'll know what you're excited about and why it's exciting
because it's consistent it's over and over reoccurring it's never deviating it's
there all the time very rarely do you hear these terms taught and spoke about
in textbooks you know there's always a risk there's always this and it's always
that the risk is you reading it wrong but this is always there in price
1:31:04
the problem is is that you're going to let you as the trader steer you wrong
because you're going to look at something you're going to get so opinionated
about something higher time frame it's hard to change directions a lot on that
daily and weekly chart it's it's usually one direction for a while that's why you
have to start there because if you start on a lower time frame you're changing
your mind 20 times inside of the day and i talked to some people outside of
our group they're
1:31:29
still in a free membership area to just go on my tutorials and follow my
youtube channel they send me charts all day long i can't get to them i can't i
can't keep up with the emails coming in but they send me their changed mind
you know here's here's what i'm doing today in in cable i'm buying this and
then okay here's 20 minutes later today okay i changed why i'm selling it they
change their mind again this is all happening in two hours that's somebody
that has no idea what's
1:31:54
going on no idea what's going on by having the higher time frame premise by
looking at monthly weekly and daily charts focusing on the daily chart this is
what we're doing with a daily chart we're framing it like a bank does no one's
teaching you this they don't give you the perspective okay from an institutional
vantage point where how and why they're going to go to a specific higher level
yes you can go back in time and look at a chart and say okay here's an old
logo there's going to be sell side liquidity
1:32:24
here or sell stops here all kinds of people on youtube that are doing that now
and yeah it's great but i'm telling you which low and which high to go to there's
a specific phenomenon that repeats itself over and over and over again and
by having that as your routine every day you sit down your daily charts okay
where are we at in the current range where are we at with respect to the
lowest low and highest high in the last 20 days the last 60 days in the last i'm
sorry last 20 40 and 60 days have we cleared both sides of the board
 59

1:33:00
have we taken all the buy stops in the last 60 days in the most highest high
have we rejected all that and cleared out and back in the middle of the range
because what does that mean you have to study are we at a large larger
longer term equilibrium where we could stay sideways for a while or now are
we going to the sell side looking for the lows outside the last 60 days range
having that and then start implementing inter market analysis that means
you're going to start having ideas from the commodity market
1:33:31
the equities market bonds all those things will start giving you more
information and it'll tell you where the opportunities really are that way even
though we can be specific and specialist about i'm a euro trader i'm like i'm a
crude oil trader i'm a gold trader you do want to have some diversity by having
some exposure in other asset classes because it gives you a great deal of
context about why you think your market's going to go up or down or doesn't
move at all canadian dollar is a
1:34:03
good example if if the crude oil markets um you know acting and behaving a
certain way the canadian dollar is going to have a direct uh response to that
and when crude oil is not of any effect in the canadian dollar you know will
move just like the other currencies will but crude oil has a great deal of
influence over that particular uh currency canadian dollar having inter market
analysis and relative strength analysis together and implying smt studies like
the dollar index and the interest rate stuff that i'm
1:34:41
teaching this month you'll have very very little opinions about what the higher
time frames are telling you and when you do that you are in line with what the
institutions are doing because you're not changing your mind every day this is
what's going to do i don't care if i see two down days on a daily chart nothing's
changed it just means it's retracing they're coming back for some more orders
to buy more and that's when we go into discussions about building in larger
positions with
1:35:07
an underlying bullish move that's already there we've already put in a position
that's bullish we're retracing how do you add more to that where do you add
more to it and how do you protect that position as well and and what do you
do to scale out do we ever hold for whole full positions yeah but you need to
know all these things you know by the end of this this month to fully
appreciate what we start teaching in february march and april because they're
going to repeat themselves and as long as you have a general idea
1:35:38
of what is being taught in january i mean if you're completely lost then
obviously you're gonna need to reach out to me after the last lesson in january
but for the most part if you have a general idea what i'm talking about when
we start applying it every single day we sit down you'll see the data points i'm
looking at you'll know exactly why i'm calling this high being significant or this
low being significant or this gap you know that that will make perfect sense to
you then what order block am i looking at why why
1:36:06
 60

this order block and that not that one michael why'd you pick this swing high
michael not that swing hi michael you just learned it today there's a range i'm
looking for it's 20 days back 40 days back 60 days back then i'm casting
forward and i know from that point on i know i can have a nude look back
point where i can go 20 days 4 days 60 days back and wait for those new
highs and lows to form that have not made its way into price yet when they
form liquidity will build above it or below it
1:36:40
based on what i see on the hard time frame i know what side the market's
going to reach for when you do that same thing you're not going to send me
emails and text messages and direct messages do you think the um
australian dollar is going to go down today i i think that the canadian dollar is
going to go down today what do you think don't ask me what i think if you're
watching my videos and you're in here don't ask me what i think the whole
point is learn from what i'm teaching you and you
1:37:06
arrive at your own opinion and then when you're wrong would you what did
you do wrong don't avoid that that's a learning opportunity take that as a big
opportunity center stage make me a better trader what can i do what did i
what did i do wrong and what did i see wrong there so i don't repeat that same
thing that's the benefit of being in here you need to go through the lab
experience go through the exercise okay and make the mistakes now you
want to do those things right now when it won't
1:37:36
hurt you it won't hurt your development it won't hurt your money it won't take
anything from you it will build you up the folks that have left us they have they
have no concept of that they don't want they don't want to wait around they
don't want to learn anything they want to be spoon-fed you are here to learn
how to do what i do analyze the markets call the markets from where they are
right now and where they're going to be at next in between those two price
points there's opportunities and i'm going to
1:38:04
teach you how to take those opportunities and manifest that in the form of
trades keeping risk low equity curves going higher and managing risk all
throughout the whole process but you cannot get to that level without some
interaction on your part and it may require you to do things by watching videos
like this is a live session you may be forced to do these things by studying the
recordings do not think that this is not of any value because it's a recording
has no it has no basis on that had no effect on it
1:38:38
staying committed to the development process is hard it's very very hard but
i'm trusting that what i'm showing you here proves number one there is a real
routine on how why price goes to a specific level why it repeats why i tell you
that it's not going to stop working why i tell you there's absolutely an algorithm
that controls price because it does things that a computer program would
naturally do because i learned to be a computer programmer i went to school i
have a degree in computer science specializing
1:39:12
in information systems i know computer programming i know it so if i look at
this stuff and i wanted to become a systems analyst when i was going to
 61

school that was my job i wanted to build the documentation stage so i can sit
down with the programmers and go through them and if they had issues with
the coding i would help them you know make this uh this process work but i
wasn't going to be the coder i don't have the patience to do the coding but
when i started learning the mechanics of what their what the
1:39:43
price delivery does i didn't think about it it just jumped on my head this is the
computer program this could be automated and by curiosity i went home and
looked in the charts and said okay if this is possible i should see it in price and
here you go it was right there and i got nervous and excited at the same time i
was laughing and crying at the same time because i thought i literally hit the
lottery like i had the winning lottery numbers for the lotto every week going
forward i had it every tumbler clicked it made perfect
1:40:23
sense i knew right away why i was wrong on everything i lost money on and i
knew now going forward where's the next setup going to be why do i have to
wait for it and when will what how much time will it take for it to happen when
is it most likely to occur where is that signal going to format before it even gets
to that price level that's what this gives you it gives you every bit of clarity that
you don't have right now once you understand what you're doing with it you'll
have every bit of
1:40:54
understanding about why you're waiting and sitting on your hands see some
of you say oh there's no set up right now oh michael i don't hear that because
i want you to focus on what's going on the price has to be driven to a specific
level then i can tell you why this is what happened we said it was going up we
told you the level is going to go up but why did it go there you learned that
today going forward you want to be using these tools to vapor frame the ideas
that lead to a trade setup as you go through more of the material
1:41:27
small little pieces will start coming clear things that you have questions right
now you need to not send them to me in an email be surprised by finding the
answers in the future lessons and in your own study that's how you practice
that's how you develop as a trader me giving you an answer isn't going to
always satisfy because you're going to still come with 50 more questions i
know that because it's the same thing i encountered when i think i needed to
do something about something and i scoured the
1:41:56
internet for it it created 50 more questions well wait a minute now if i came in
with one one little thing that i was unsure about i go in i start looking for it and i
get the response and the answer to that but then it created 20 000 different
scenarios that would create a what if scenario well what if this and what if that
and that's the problem every one of you are in that stage and it's because
you're overzealous and i i appreciate that believe me i've been there but you
also have to just take a little
1:42:25
bit of faith and trust the fact that i've taught this before you are not a guinea
pig scenario i've done this with groups of people and individual bases as well
trust me i will get you where you want to be at but you have to allow it to
happen but you also have to be a part of it by practicing and looking for it not
 62

looking for trades looking for the things i'm telling you the evidence that there
is control if they evidence control and price that means that there's no reason
for you not to trust the things i'm telling you in
1:42:55
the future if there's something i'm going to teach you in the future and i'll say
okay refer to the if the data ranges this is why this turtle soup false break
below or low is going to happen and we can be a buyer down here because if
i start saying okay look we're going to buy tomorrow's tomorrow we're going to
buy today's low oh i don't know about that because if we sit in london and it
starts diving 50 pips all in one candle i guarantee you 85 or more not buying
that day you're
1:43:26
not buying that low you're going to wait for a bullish order block or an optimal
trade entry or you're going to wait for it to move up 60 pips before you think
it's going to go up you won't trust it and you've missed the whole learning
experience you've got to go through the things i'm putting you in front of to do
those very things pay attention what's being done right now i'm getting a
thousand questions about why they can't get to october content right now i
can't watch anything october
1:43:50
i can't i can't look at what's going on in november why are you there that
stuff's there forever you have access to that focus right now on what's being
taught in january i'm telling you it's a lot of stuff and if you are wasting your
time on things that's already been taught to you and it's already in recordings
you can go watch it any other time pay attention more than any other month
closely to this one because i guarantee you if there's any month you're gonna
have to come back to and study it's this
1:44:18
one there's so much stuff in it it's dense it's very very vast you have no easy
way through this you've got to grind through a lot of this material and you're
going to have to refer back to it many times and believe me you'll be back
through this whole month content multiple times even when you complete the
mentorship and you're going to find stuff that you didn't get the first time the
20th time the 30th time it's a lot of information it's two decades worth of stuff
you want to be a big big time trader you
1:44:48
want to be consistently profitable it's in this month you want to know when not
to trade and lose money it's in this month you want to know how to frame a
trade before price ever gets there it's in this month you want to be a day trader
it's in this month short term trader this month too you want a swing trader here
your options trader it's here you want you want to be a trend trader you want
to be a breakout artist you want to be a trader that sells options rights options
it's in here
1:45:16
you won't appreciate it until we get to the supplementary teachings but
everything that leads to you being effective doing those other things stems
from what you understand and being taught in january here all the content is
being delivered it's going to be a lot more than eight lessons folks it's more it's
sub teachings inside of these major eight topics lots of it that's the reason why
 63

we're not doing these live sessions and i'm throwing an extra one in here
today by time because i want to encourage you
1:45:50
that what you're waiting for is exactly what you're looking for and believe me
it's a lot of stuff and you're probably gonna your head's gonna hurt you're
gonna have you're gonna feel like man this is information overload and i'm
already pre-warning you this month and i told you this of all the other months
in this mentorship this is the one it's a monster it's tons of stuff and you're
gonna have to study you're going to have to study in february we'll resume
back to a very
1:46:16
standardized teaching model eight lessons supportive in nature and we'll be
back to doing more live sessions you know throughout the week and then in
march we'll be obviously in live session on a daily basis every monday
through friday we'll be back in live session but you got to give me the time to
give you this information and still operate as the mentor and answering emails
and also running it too i mean there's a lot of stuff i have and i have a family
so permitting me the time to build the
1:46:45
lessons for you and change some of the things because i all my notes are all
based on like commodities and indices so i have to change some things and
create some slides that relate to foreign exchange because i'm predominantly
teaching to a crowd that's come to me by way of fx but and when it's um it's
necessary you'll hear me talk about it where um this is unique to a specific
asset class you know like we talked about today with commodities the idea of
having the open interest in your study that is
1:47:23
only going to come by way of looking at the futures market so since we're
forex traders it it is important that you avail yourself that information that's
available to everyone it's common knowledge it's free you can go in and get it
okay and it's valuable it's a gold mine and people that think they understand it
while they may have a little bit a myopic view of of what one facet of it does
for you what you learned today was the real mechanics of what open interest
does it gives you the x-ray view of what the
1:47:55
real smart money activity is are they really buying because if they're really
buying they're going to dump open interest and it's going to drop 15 or more
and it's going to happen at a t support level if it's going to sell off and start
going lower and if that was a real turtle soup cell then that means prior to that
turtle soup cell they should have been a massive increase over time with that
open interest going up and you saw that in australian dollar because open
interest high open interest indicates
1:48:25
them offering the sell side they're only going to take part of that if they know
eventually they're going to be able to sell that position off with price being
going lower that's the only time open interest is going to go up and they can
do this on long term trends but it will shift every quarter they have to fund
themselves for allowing the holding of that risk now you're probably thinking
okay well michael if they're in control of price what real what real risk is there
well what happens when a rogue nation nukes
 64

1:48:56
another nation you're not thinking that are you but that can happen what
would that do what would that do if a nuclear bomb gets dropped in any nation
it's going to freak everybody out uh oh we're in world war iii bombs are
dropping when september 11th happened boom markets are all over the
place anything can happen look at the brexit look at donald trump look what
that did there's risk okay but they take these risky and uh opportunities and
they manipulate but they don't want to hold on to something and not make
money
1:49:32
so yeah why they will provide liquidity and sell to the buyers that see price
trade higher for a period of time every three months look at your charts and
see if they don't reset themselves every three months it's there it happens in s
p it happens in stocks it happens in commodities it happens in bonds it
happens in forex it's there every three to four months you'll see it it's there and
that's how they pay themselves for holding on that risk offering the liquidity for
the sell side of it
1:50:08
providing the means for buyers to buy currency they will do what we're
discussing here quarterly shifts and you'll see evidence is that in open interest
it will happen at points at which by looking back 20 40 and 60 days where
those highs and lows are where those gaps are where equilibrium is those
reference points in that time field okay of 60 days is the maximum look back
it's simple and here's another study to make it easy for you just go back 60
days from every month beginning start every month it was an exercise
1:50:43
every single month a calendar month put put a vertical line on at every new
month go back 60 days find the highest high and lowest low and you see if
they don't wipe that out you can take any pair you can be the dollar index it
could be the well look at the australian dollar put a vertical line on every single
first trading day of every month okay don't do them all at one time so that way
your charts nice and crisp and clean but put a vertical line at the beginning of
every month the first trading day of
1:51:15
every month okay and draw out a line okay 60 days 60 trading days okay and
delineate that and then find the highest high and the lowest low and then go
forward from the from to the right of that and you see if they don't run those uh
buy stops and sell stops above above that and do the same thing for 40 days
and do the same thing for 20 days doing that study that's exactly what i did
the night that i've seen how this works that's all i did i said okay if i'm a data if
i'm a computer programmer i need to be able to
1:51:51
reference something how can they know what the orders are like how
because in my mind how could they see lynne waldock's orders because
that's how i looked at it my my perspective was if what i'm learning to do in the
marketplace to be a market maker i have to know certain things and what i
was learning if this is true then i should see evidences of it in price and i
couldn't wait to get home i went home pulled out my charts and it was a swiss
franc chart that was that was the actual chart i opened up my
1:52:28
 65

commodity price charts from commodity trend service and i literally turned the
page and i literally in seconds seen it i said okay if i'm if i'm the computer
program and i'm going to be able to reach up into aerial orders it can't i can't
know what every brokerage firm's orders are there's no way it's dynamic think
about it you might have a trade on right now and you might have a stop on it
may be there but something might change and you collapse that trade your
order's not there anymore
1:53:06
every one of us are dynamic thinking we may have an order there think about
what you did with your last trade how many times did you meet your stop-loss
think about it you were long you you moved your chair you shared your stop-
loss up okay and then you started seeing a little retracement you're like oh let
me move that back and some of you probably moved back further than it first
originated at you're dynamic so your orders are always moving around and
that's why i say hey this is too much of a variable
1:53:31
there's no way for them to know every single book that's out there so how can
you standardize it the epiphany i had was go back and go back to the same
number of days that i'm being taught to look for and just look for the high and
low that's where the buy stops are and that's where the cell stops are and
there it was it was like solomon's mind just opened up all the fort knox opened
up everything happened that moment a flood of emotions flood of euphoria
and fear like oh no did i just do something i wasn't supposed to do did
1:54:10
i just learn something and see something i wasn't supposed to that's how i felt
i had this big old textbook okay of information i had to digest and i literally
didn't want to touch it anymore because in my mind i had already cracked it i
didn't want to go back i did not want to sit with these people and learn
anything more than i had already learned there i went from that to the corn
market in commodities it was there soybeans live cattle pork bellies they don't
trade anymore a silver all the metals palladium platinum high
1:54:47
grade copper cotton lumber orange juice it's all there it's all there once you
see it you're never going to forget it and you can't unsee it and when you see
these things that repeat over and over again and they are they're finite you'll
prove it to yourself in a in the short little exercise like that pull up a chart i don't
care what asset class it is define it look back the last 20 days last four days in
the last 60 days where's the high and low where's the liquidity voids where's
the
1:55:22
fair value gaps and where's equilibrium and you'll know exactly what price is
going to do on that right hand side of your chart it's going to move to those
levels now think in terms of overbought and oversold you will be able to define
a range by doing that you don't need an indicator to tell you if your overbought
oversold look at the highest level of liquidity in the form of a high in the last 60
days and the lowest low last 60 days that's your real overbought never sold
you don't need to you don't need an
1:55:50
indicator for that i've made fun of that stuff in my free tutorials and on youtube
you know these guys talking about diversity i don't need a divergence i need
 66

to know where's the range where am i in terms of institutional overflow the

real institutional overflow the what i'm talking about you don't hear this talk
chris lori is not teaching this stuff okay online trading isn't teaching it youtube
guys on there they're not teaching this these are finite things unless you came
from where i came from you're not seeing
1:56:17
or learning or even knowing about this stuff it gets deeper than this it gets
more specific than this this was just the beginning stages of what i i'm taking
you whether you realize i'm taking you through the whole process of how i
became ict the things i learned the way i learned it the the process of how i
got to it it's what you're seeing here one stage at a time and how do i know it's
like this because i journal i've kept a journal for years and i remember certain
things because i journal
1:56:54
i go back in time and look at certain things i get to relive that moment that's
why i'm so passionate about teaching you even before i started charging look
how passionate i've always been i've always been passionate because i know
what it was like for me to experience it to go through the process in that
euphoric moment when i finally got to what you're all aspiring to be
knowledgeable knowing exactly what you're going to do with these candles on
your chart what's this telling you what are you
1:57:24
going to do with this information i'm making money with this i'm building a
business i'm building a future for my family i'm building a means of being able
to build a legacy for my family do they never have to be supported to a
employer you're going to make your own way with this information and i'm
interested in that i'm i'm passionate about that and when you do these things
and you go through the processes of things i'm telling you to do with this
month's content doing these exercises
1:57:56
beyond the shadow of doubt it's going to blow your mind you're already here
it's not a sales pitch i don't need to sell anything to you you're seeing it but
you're not really seeing it yet you haven't done that yet when you do as soon
as you do it i'm telling you the form is going to light up you're going to be oh
you're going to be all over the place you're going to be throwing up char son
sunday look at this it did it here it did it here this is it then then you are not
gonna be able to sleep it's
1:58:25
gonna be like no doze forget about it caffeine you won't need it you're gonna
be jumping around hopped up on goofballs because you literally won't be able
to contain yourself because you know exactly what you're looking for going
forward that's exactly what traders want you're asking for setups give me
signals no that's not what you want really break it down you want to know
what i know you want to know when you are going to take a trade because
think about that's ultimate control because if you know
1:58:52
where to find the next 20 30 50 60 trading opportunities you don't have to
trade today do you contrast it to what you felt like this morning before the
session opened up you're hoping i'll give you something right now because
you want to take a trade and it only comes because you don't know anything
 67

right now you don't know what you want to do you want to focus on the common goal
is that this information is going to take you to the understanding of knowing what it is
that you are going to do and when
1:59:22
you don't want to do it to stop distracting yourself by going through old content don't
even watch my free tutorials this month just focus on this because believe me it's a
lot it's a lot of stuff then and only then start amplifying it you know by doing the other
stuff and the new things that we teach in february going forward but there's a lot of
things that you need to be paying attention to for this month if you miss this you're
going to struggle the rest of the mentorship and i mean that
1:59:53
and if you don't stay it's because you didn't take my words to heart right now because
you don't you're not you're not trying to do it and guess what there's no shame in that
because if you don't want to do the work what's required here you're not going to
make it in trading regardless if we had everything i was going to teach in this whole
entire mentorship it's all between your ears it's going to be the problem so this is the
dividing marker for many of you if you can't submit to what's
2:00:18
required and that you have to do in january you might just hang it up just you know
forget about it don't worry about it and you know go back to watching free tutorials
and youtube videos and and then be content with that and don't let it beat you up
because you have now arrived at that's the final decision maker because if you're not
going to be organized if you're not going to be disciplined to do the work that's
necessary you're never going to trade not in fine profitability it won't
2:00:44
happen it's not going to happen you want reality you want truth that's what this is you
won't make money at all unless you submit and do the things i'm gonna teach you in
january everything if you don't do these things with one thousand percent of surety
you're wasting your time with me you're wasting your money with me and you're
never going to be profitable with the things that i teach it's not going to happen you'll
have hit and miss results and you're going to undo everything
2:01:14
because you're going to just go nuts you're going to just over trade trying to get it all
back and you don't need to do any of those types of things you can be very boring
about it and that's what you want you want to be boring you want you want that same
feeling when you go to work it's the same thing every day same people every day
that's what you want your trading to be same thing i know in 60 days looking back
that's where i need to be focusing on last 40 days where that's what i need to
2:01:40
be focusing on last 20 days that's what i need to be focusing on take that information
cast it forward those levels cast it forward they're going to be influential in the future
and there's going to be new levels that create highers and lows 20 days going
forward 40 days going forward 60 days going forward and by doing that you get a
future level to draw a vertical line on and look back 20 40 and 60 days and if you get
an overlap that's when the magic happens.
 68

Defining Open Float Liquidity Pools

 69

defining open float liquidity pools okay we're gonna be looking at the
Canadian dollar for this teaching okay we should look at here's a chart of the
Canadian dollar Futures chart this is the March delivery contract for Canadian
dollar foreign CAD pair daily chart when we're looking at price what we like to
do is identify on a higher time frame where are the liquidity pools for the large
funds because the liquidity pools for the large funds is largely where markets
00:53
will want to reach for apart from long-term fundamentals on a intermediate
term basis that means about three or four months the large funds open float
the liquidity that's above old highs or below old lows that will be generally
targeted every quarter how do we go about identifying which ones that we
should be focusing on right now we have to incorporate a technique called
open float now open float is simply just taking the last three months or taking
the last month and a half to the next month and a half in the future
01:33
encapsulating that time and basically you're looking at three months of data
and by doing that what I'll do is give you a range to look for the highest high
and the lowest low on the daily chart which will lead you to where the large
funds liquidity pools are above and below the market price for example let's
assume for a moment it's August 1st and we can look back and see where the
highest high was in the last 60 days over the last 40 days and over the last 20
days prior to August 1st we can identify also the
02:15
lowest low and the highest high in the first 20 trading days to the right of
August 1st then 40 days out what's the high and low of that range and what's
the high and low the range 60 days out from August 1st when you have that
range 60 days look back in 60 days cast forward that is open float you want to
find the highest high and the lowest low in between those two reference points
and time on a near-term basis you can look back and see what the last 60
days trading days range was high and low in this case
03:00
we can see the lowest here and the high is here going forward because we're
looking at the look back period here casting forward those levels we can see
that eventually during the month of September those highs that were formed
in the latter portion of July 2016 they were in fact rated so the market was
drawn to the buy stops on the fund level at those July highs extending it out
 70

so that we have 60 days look back and then 60 days cast forward we can see
what the total open float is with the low end seen here
03:50
in the high end seen here you can see the market did in fact eventually still
dry forward reaching for the buy stops above the October highs in 2016. so if
we're looking at the market like this we can also identify where significant
short term and intermediate term highs and lows are if we look at the last
range of 20 days behind us and 20 days casting forward expecting a new high
or a new low to form because no one can accurately depict the future and
forecast the future we have ideal times to look for in terms of
04:33
intervals 20 40 and 60 days intervals looking back for the most obvious buy
stops and sell stops don't just look for the highest high in the last 60 days and
the lowest low in the last 60 days behind us or in the look back phase what
we're doing is we're looking for where's the near-term high and low in the last
20 days whereas the short-term high and low in the last 40 days and where's
the intermediate term high and low in the last 60 days that same thing can be
done casting forward for looking at August 1st 2016
05:12
we can cast forward 20 trading days and expect a range of high and low to
form noting what that high and low is on that particular range will give us the
liquidity pulls that are on a near-term basis the easiest ones from the market
to reach for when we're looking at short-term trades and day trades that range
is going to be easy and helpful for you for intraday scalps and day trading
when we look out 40 days it gives us a little bit more of a short-term basis for
defining the liquidity pools on the daily chart
05:55
looking for the last High and the last low in the last 40 days that made the
highest high and lowest low buy stocks would be above that high and sales
tax would be below that low in LTC 60 days cast forward from the first of
August would give us the boundary point at which open float ends in terms of
time not in terms of price but in terms of time so we are bracketing the market
if you will 60 days forward in time and we're looking at back in the past 60
days so we have 120 trading days of what would be called open float
06:38
we're looking for the highest high and the lowest low in that range but every
20 days there's a high and a low form now you're about to experience a
growth spurt one of the most powerful patterns I like to trade is the turtle soup
which is a false break above old high and a false break below an old well the
pattern that I learned about that was taught in Street smarts book while I'm not
teaching that pattern here out of respect for the the authors of that book the
idea of a false break above or
07:08
below based on the turtles trading pattern which is a long-term trading pattern
or system if you will that allow long-term trends to pay out the turtle Traders
and turtle Traders if you know what they are Richard Dennis put together a
hodgepodge of different walks of life people all from different walks of life for
the purpose of teaching them the concept of trading and he used a long-term
trading model and he taught that buying a breakout above a 20-day High
 71

holding for long-term trends or selling short a 20-day low holding for long-term
trends
07:48
while they had a lot of losing trades their winners were monstrous it's a trend
following system which is what I teach that the large funds are in the Foreign
Exchange Market they're long-term Trend following because these markets
are highly linked to interest rate markets which are under underlying
fundamental drivers for the marketplace long-term trends are in fact
fundamentally driven in currencies but because the system was based on
buying on a breakout of the 20 period or selling below 20 period low
08:23
that breakout many times was false and in itself it gives us an edge so if we
look at every interval of 20 trading days which is what we have here 20 40 60.
you can encapsulate where the next high and the next low is on price and
where the highest and lowest low on each 20-day interval going forward and
looking back you'll know where device thoughts and sell stops are so that we
can take respective trades based on that also if you notice that the buy stops
keep getting hit and rarely do the sell stops keep getting hit by default it
08:59
teaches you to institutional order flow is what bullish it's looking for higher
prices it keeps drawing on the buy stops above the marketplace and
conversely if we notice that the cell stops keep getting ran out and very rarely
do the buy stops keep getting hit that tells us what for institution order flow it
tells us that the institutional overflow is bearish so therefore the banks are
making a move on the large funds liquidity below the lows or running their sell
stops okay moving forward one month this is
09:30
September 2016. the same thing is done here we've identified where the
ranges in terms of the look back 60 trading days from the beginning of
September and we have 60 trading Days cast forward we're going to look for
the lowest low in the last 60 trading days prior to September 1st and that's this
one here and the highest high in the last 60 days is here and again we can
keep noticing that the buy stops above old highs keep getting taken out you
can see that high is violated also in the month of September
10:13
moving forward we have October 2016. look back period of 60 days and cast
forward of 60 days we have identified our range or open float the highest high
in the last 60 trading days prior to October 1st 2016 is this High here and the
lowest low in our look back period of 60 days is here so open float on a large
fund level are referenced by these two price points the higher it's where the
buy stops are and the lowers where the sell stops are so they're looking for
the buy stops above the marketplace and they keep
10:49
taking those buy stops out notice also in the first 20 trading days to the right or
the future from October 2012 there's a low that forms in the Canadian dollar it
takes the lows out in the form of the bodies of the candles made in the last
portion of September then there's a rejection that trades higher so we had one
attempt here to clear out the sell side liquidity moving forward delineating our
open float range for November 2016.
11:26
 72

you can see the look back period 60 trading days maximum 40 trading days
and 20 trading days the highest high and the lowest low formed in the last 20
and 40 and 60 trading days the lowest lowest seen here highest high seen
here and again going forward into November we can see that that high was in
fact taken out on the upside so they keep taking the buy stops out and
institutional order flow is indicated as bullish casting forward one more time
into December 2016.
12:02
looking back last 60 trading days prior to December 1st the lowest low is seen
here sales tax will be resting below that in a large fund level and buy stocks
will be resting just above the high scene here notice also in the first 20 trading
days after December 1st 2016 We Made It Low and then price ran eventually
up into creating another higher high but blowing out the buy stops above the
November High and then ultimately making a run down into a lower low for
January and it forms in the first 40 trading days after December 1st 2016.
12:50
and going forward in time at the time of this recording look back period last 60
trading days you see as low as low as seen here highest highs seen here we
have already violated the lowest low so we've taken out the cell stops on a
large funds level and we can look forward in time for a new price like that
retrace higher and then see if they want to take it lower because it's all
indicating that they want to take out the sell side liquidity now okay let's take a
look at the dollar CAD pair this is the daily chart and let's
13:29
apply some of these ideas on the daily chart okay you can see the bodies of
the candles over here we did Wick down below 130 50 level and retrace a
little bit that's where the cell stops will be resting oh no intermediate term
basis because we're looking at a daily time frame price advancing does trade
down there and takes those sell stops out of the marketplace and quickly runs
away next area up here the bodies of the candles you can see that Wicks
through it five stops will be resting just above that large funds
14:07
have their buy stops taken out here and then quickly rejected and we have a
low down here with the bodies of the candles sales thoughts will be rested just
below that and we can see the market does in fact sweep down there and
take the sell side liquidity out so what makes these false breaks and and false
breaks higher and lower so lucrative is the fact that we understand that large
traders in the form of a fund Trader they have their buy stops above these
levels and they have their sell stops below these levels
14:42
every 20 trading days there's going to be a new liquidity pool formed it's going
to be on the buy side and on the sell side you just have to identify where
those ranges are in respective terms to where the most obvious swing high
and swing low is formed and then frame that going forward whereas the next
20 days high and low whereas the next 20 days high and low keep going out
but looking back in the last 60 days and looking forward into the future 60
days gives us the range for open float the highest high and the lowest low in
that
15:15
 73

range of 120 days that's what the large fund macro is in other words we're
there aiming for the large fund buy stops or sell stops they're going to be
derived at looking at where the range high and low is on the last 120 days 60
days backwards in time and with the next high and low if it makes a higher
high in the next new 60 trading days we don't know where that high is going to
be in in the future we don't know if it's going to create a higher high or if it's
going to make a lower low
15:48
we just monitor as price creates new price swings on highs and lows where
are we in relative terms to the last 60 trading days are we making a higher
high then the the highest high or are we making a lower low in the lowest low
in the last 60 days and we look forward 60 trading days into the future and we
keep moving that basis forward each new month we're looking for and we're
we'll eventually arrive at the institution order Flow by default you can see
where they're running the market they're taking out buy stops
16:21
continuously rarely if ever taking out cell stops what's telling you do they want
to press the market higher they keep grinding against those large funds so if
it's seen as an opposite where we keep seeing the sell stops keep getting ran
out and very real the buy stocks get taken out institutional order flow is
bearish so therefore as long as we continuously see the market making new
lows we keep watching that range of the last 60 days and where are we in
relationship to that are we above it or below it if
16:53
we're above it we have to continuously keep seeing buy stops get taken out if
you start seeing cell stops get taken out we're probably making a quarterly
shift and the reverse is said if we're below the last 60 days low and if we're
below that last 60 days low we're really oversold we're in a deep discount
market and if we start seeing buy stops getting hit and very rarely new we
now see cell stops getting hit we're probably performing a market structure
shift or quarterly shift for
17:25
a new Direction in the marketplace and you can see that in fact is what
happens here with the Canadian dollar so let's take this information and go
back to the Futures Market and take a look at some things.
 74

obviously this is going to be the price action of the Futures Contract which is
going to be inverted from what we see when we're studying the dollar Index
versus the Canadian dollar because that pair starts with the US dollar first that
means when that market is going higher as a pair that means the
17:58
dollar strong in Canadian dollars weak if the dollar cad's going lower that
means the dollar Index is weak and the Canadian dollar is strengthening well
in this case we are looking at the Futures Contract of Canadian dollar and I
want you to look at the same reference points we just showed in the previous
slide we're just going to do the opposite in the Futures Market you see the
bodies of the candles being ran out here in December and then quickly
rejected we can see the bodies of the candle made in November gets rated in
December
18:38
and quickly Rejects and it runs for what the bodies of the candles here we're
running the old high out where buy stocks will be resting and that's where
we're at presently but prior to that big run up off of that 73 50 73 65 level take
a look at this right here I gave you a teaching with the Australian dollar and I
showed you how we can use these quarterly shifts to take place and open
interest off of support resistance ideas on a higher time frame basis when
we're looking at higher time frame charts we are identifying Clues and
19:26
seeking evidences that we can see that they are about to make a move on
one side of the marketplace we understand what's making that short-term
fluctuation could be largely attributed to just running the stops on funds large
fund traders buy stops and sell stops but it's not always that the markets are
moving based on very very long-term fundamentals and as it relates to higher
time frame charts but every three months there can be a manipulative phase
in the marketplace that still can be a catalyst for us to be a Trader
19:57
taking high probability entries and looking for high probability exit points and
by looking at where the logical fund level traders buy stocks and sell stocks
would be and looking for evidence is that the market is showing participation
by smart money I.E the banks if the Market's trading down to a support level
at 73.
 75

20:20
80 to 7360 in that range we have a clue here that once the market start
trading lower from the 7 500 to 74.60 74 40 level to 7400 and then once we
got below 73.80 level by that point open interest had already tanked you can
see clearly here that's a huge drop it's a massive drop you only need a 15 the
decrease to have a massive uh indication that there's big huge institutional
sponsorship behind the move that you're expecting if open interest is declining
what they're saying to us is they are not willing to
21:01
be offering sell side liquidity to buyers they don't want that so they're scaring
those individuals by dropping the market really quickly and open interest
declines rapidly open interest only declines as an Evidence that the smart
money are not wanting to be heavily short high open interest is a indication
that there's a big massive liquidity uh program that's been offered for buyers
the bank is offering that as risk they're holding the risk on that but if open
interest declines while the
21:37
market drops off precipitously and it goes into a support level because look at
what's happening in November 2016. the Canadian dollars Futures Contract it
rallied from around 73.80 up to 76.40 which is a very respectable range price
comes back down runs the bodies of the candles that was formed as a low in
November 2016.
21:58
price comes down again looking for another shift in the marketplace it runs out
the sell stops below the 7380 level with an old low remember we look back in
higher time frame institution order flow reference points liquidity pools water
blocks fair value gaps equilibrium all those price points we used and learned
in September we look for those in our higher time frame charts we're seeing a
liquidity pool in the form of a cell stop resting around 73.
22:34
80 they make that run and on low open interest at a support level they are
indicating that it's going to go up higher if the Futures Contract for the
Canadian dollar marks contract delivery is indicating that there is very low
open interest at a support level at a time when the stops have been running
out below the marketplace that's indicating what potential strength and you
can see the price action that transpired after that rather explosive price move
looking for a move from 73.
23:06
80 all the way up to 76.80 so 300 Pips move up from one specific level that
could be easily derived by looking at the evidences that we've shown here in
this teaching using open float casting forward 60 days casting forward 40
days casting forward 20 days notice also every 20 trading days the high and
the low becomes very obvious you can start circling these as you create new
highs every time there's a new higher high note that and then wait for the
price to come back down to an old 20-day low study that every 20-day High
every
23:48
20-day low is going to have buy stocks and sell sauce resting above the highs
and below the lows if you do this as an exercise going forward you'll see
clearly what side of the marketplace it's seeking if it keeps taking out the buy
 76

stops or the highs the market is doing what it's moving higher it means institutional
overflow is on the buy side you don't want to be selling short in those conditions if the
market is taking out the sell side liquidity continuously and rarely ever taking out the
highs of the uh
24:18
price action that means that institutional overflow is indicated lower and you want to
focus primarily on being short until we get an obvious change in Direction how would
that happen well if you go and you start trading to the lowest low in the last 60 days
well we're probably going to be very very deeply uh oversold and we're going to be in
deep discount even if the price only bounces a little bit on a higher time frame like
this it can bounce you know a great deal it could be over 150 200 Pips sometimes
and then
24:48
eventually roll over and continuous uh fashion keep going lower you don't want to be
caught on the wrong side of the marketplace trading on a hard time frame chart and
not see the evidences that it's given you and trade accordingly you have to have all
these things in mind looking for where the liquidity is and the easiest way to do it and
to make all this very simple because it could be very easily complicated and I'm sure
probably complicated in many of your minds what you're looking for is a revolving
25:18
continuous range of 120 days and you whatever day you're looking at you look back
60 and you look forward 60. so there's 120 days there and you're constantly
monitoring where's the highest high and the lowest low in those in that range and
that's where the buy stops and the sell stocks are going to be on a large fund level
the look back phase is where the hard stops are going to be that means where the
actual buys and sell stops are going to be aboggan oil high and Below an old low but
if we are looking forward studying
25:57
new price action as it occurs you need to be mindful of where you are in the last 60
days range are we near a high or are we near a low and that's also going to be
indicative of where we see the next quarterly shift if it's going to be continuously
moving higher and higher and higher it keeps taking out buy stops eventually unless
you're in a one-sided parabolic price move which we'll teach about uh generally you
don't see too many of those uh the market generally moves from range to range and
using this concept it
26:29
will be very beneficial to you because you can see where the near turn that means to
20 period high and low in terms of trading days and I'll say that again the next near-
term move is going to run on the near-term buy stops or sell stops that means the
last 20 days range what's the highest high and the lowest low that's the near term
open float the short-term open float is what's the highest high and the lowest loan will
last 40 trading days and the intermediate term open float is going to be the highest
high and lowest
27:00
low in the last 60 days knowing where you are in that range and what side of the
marketplace keeps getting taken out will give you Clues as to what the next shift in
price is going to be once it starts to break down you know you're going to have a
significant price move and you can trade that accordingly even on a daily time frame
where you don't have to go down to a lower time frame for entry you can execute
purely off of the daily chart.
 77

Defining Institutional Swing Points

defining institutional swing points okay we're going to be talking about

institutional swing points now you've heard me teach in many instances where
the swing high swing low forms in the price action swing high being a high
with a lower high to the left of it and a lower high to the right of it just a three
consecutive three candle or three bar pattern one with a high with two lower
highs to the either side of it and then obviously the same thing would be said
just in opposite terms for a
00:49
swing low one candle with a higher candle to the left of it and a higher candle
to the right of it that's a swing low that's what i learned from my mentor larry
williams pretty simple easy pattern there's been a lot of patterns i've come
across through my development as a trader some of them rather elaborate
they really didn't mean too much in terms of future prognostication but
nonetheless they were fun to read about initially got my hopes up but didn't
really deliver anything i'm not talking about swing points in
01:17
that degree here i want you to think about institutional swing points in terms of
concept in other words what's going on behind the scenes i don't want to draw
any charts up i don't want to pull any examples up i want you to think about it
conceptually because we're going to be building on these ideas i want you to
understand that there's really only two forms of swing points in the
marketplace as it relates to institutional trading it's in the form of a stop run or
a failure swing that's it there's nothing else
01:52
so we're going to talk about the two forms of swing points and we're going to
talk about the contrasting differences between the two and what makes them
opportunities for us as traders and how we can see the characteristics of both
the first one we're looking at here is essentially the breaker okay this is a
breaker where the market will generally make a higher high fail then break
down and have a rejection at the highs many times this is a very surprising
and deflating pattern for some traders and
02:30
everyone's experienced at some time in their development where they've
bought a specific price point with the expectation it's going to go higher initially
 78

does and then once it makes that new higher high it breaks lower
aggressively and you probably experience it as well where you market you
sell a low and it starts to break lower you feel good about the trade now
sudden just by moving below a previous low a little bit explodes on the upside
and now you're trapped or stopped out this pattern in my opinion is the most
03:02
powerful the most dynamic the most significant price pattern you need to learn
conceptually and you understand some of the characteristics about where it
forms but what generally happens is when you have a selling scenario the
market will generally make a rally up to an area of old resistance now that
resistance can come in the form of how we interpret resistance as a bare
shoulder block it could be a breaker or mitigation block it could be an old low
it's returning to or it could be you know high it's returning to
03:36
and it may fall short just by a few pips or points initially and start to trade lower
and retail traders and like myself when i first started i thought that this was
most likely going to be when the market would break down aggressively and
start trading lower and i could be expecting lower prices well the market
makes one more pass higher driving out that short term high it creates and it
spooks the marketplace and it upsets those traders that are already short and
ultimately goes to the level at which you would have expected it to
04:09
trade to the first time which is that a resistance level or in this case it could be
a bearish order block for us or could close in a gap but when we see price
hovering just below a key institutional reference point like we learned in
september which are the bearish order blocks bullshore blocks liquidity voids
fair value gaps when we see these things in our charts we anticipate price
trading to them to the pip or into them a little bit like as it were for a order
block the the idea is once you see the level and these levels are going to
04:45
be delineated with the blue lines uh the diagram on the left represents a
selling opportunity or where we expect some measure of resistance that could
be a bearish order block uh the short-term high that forms prior to that higher
high that's what gets many traders caught and if you understand order blocks
many times the bearish order block is just above that it didn't it didn't trade to
it or it leaves a little bit of a fair value gap and price comes up and just falls
short of filling it in and then finally drives up and closes
05:20
that little bit of a range in that's when you get this breaker swing point now
why is it a breaker the fact that it creates that little short term low in between
the higher high and the previous high for the sell side diagram on the left
when the market breaks down and takes out that short term low prior to the
new high that is indicating that the market has broke those individuals that
were initially short and now they're trapped so when that move takes place
what you're seeing is the opportunity for the marketplace to
05:59
move aggressively away from the level it was an initial fake out and then the
buy stop sometimes also are what's targeted so it could be a order block it
could be a fair value gap it could be a liquidity void getting closed in it didn't
get closed the initial time and then searched up the second leg up many
 79

instances by looking at your charts you'll have a plethora of examples and

gaining experience by looking at hindsight examples of how that occurs the
one of the benefits of looking at intraday charts not that we're going to
06:33
be talking about intraday in this month but when we practice with intraday
charts it gives us a lot of examples of where these types of events take place
because this very pattern here this materializes every single day it
materializes every single day and in every single pair it's there you have to
study every single time frame and see how this pattern manifests itself when
the bias of being bullish the market diagram here that we have on the right
hand side where the cell stops are ran out below a short-term low once
07:11
it hits the level or short falls short of a support level the market many times will
drive lower and go right into that level to me i love this pattern because
number one i can see when it's forming okay i can see when it's just falling
short of a level and where we're going to anticipate one more drive lower or in
this case it could be a drive higher on the bullish side but when we look at
price it's important to have the key levels or the institutional reference points
that we taught in september
07:41
those ideas have to already be on your chart if you don't see them already
outlined you're not going to be able to capitalize on the opportunities that
these patterns present themselves with so if we see cell stops being ran out
or if we see a fair value gap below the marketplace or a liquidity void that
didn't initially fill in the first pass lower and then dries lower then closes it in all
those scenarios can lend well to this pattern by itself conceptually it doesn't do
you any good just hearing me talk about it so you
08:19
have to go into the charts and literally pull out examples where a short-term
high was passed through just a little short period time right after that and then
it creates that re rejection or reversal high same thing is said for the buy side
of the uh the breaker pattern these swing points if you look at them they many
times offer outstanding entry points what makes them scary is the fact that the
number one question i get about them is how do you know if you're going to
see it reverse if you sell above the previous high
08:57
and that comes by experience with trusting the institutional reference points
that we taught in september and throughout all the free tutorials order blocks
breakers mitigation blocks liquidity voids and now you've learned fair value
gaps so having these ideas in your chart you'll be able to anticipate these
patterns unfolding before they actually do if you don't have the levels on your
chart you're going to be surprised by these things but that's okay i already
know that most of you aren't going to be able
09:32
to see this pattern readily before that happens so what can you do with it once
you see the pattern break down in the example on the left-hand side for our
bearish swing point in the form of a bearish breaker when that high is broken
and it takes out that short-term loan between that market structure shift
breaking point that becomes your trigger if price ever comes back up to that
 80

level you can be a seller now the beautiful thing is we already have a stop run
on this pattern now think institutionally there was a short-term high
10:14
right here the market comes down creates a short-term low and it rallies up
taking out this short-term high blowing out the buy stops closing in a liquidity
void that didn't get filled in completely when this first pass came up or it came
into a bearish order block maybe it fell short of the various order block here or
maybe this is just a simply an old high and price comes right back above the
old high and then rejects and trades lower you don't have to fear this pattern
here if you can't if you don't have the
10:46
confidence to get in here and sell that idea like an institutional trader would go
right in there and sell it rate as it trades through it wait for it to break down if it
takes out that short term low when market trades back up to that trigger point
right here that's when you would be looking to be a seller the wonderful thing
again is about this pattern is we already have the stop run so if it's already
stopped out those individuals here there's no reason for it to want to come
back up and trade back in there because
11:16
these traders are already knocked out so we can be a seller here with a great
deal of confidence that our stop loss could actually be above this high or rate
at that high the likelihood of coming back up there after an aggressive
breakdown once a level has already been arrived at discerning that there has
been an expectation of the market being bearish if we see evidence is that
we've already seen a stop run here if we've seen a move start to break lower
at or just below that that resistance level this is going to lull traders into
11:47
believing and let you know what it feels like as well you want to see price
action moving in your favor many times as a new trader so this dropping off
will get traders short where's their buy stock going to be placed right above
this high so this pass through clears out that buy side liquidity that they can
engineer new shorts on so when we see it return back up to this level here it
gives a great deal of confidence even on a daily time frame that we're most
likely not going to see price trade back up to this level here
12:16
because it's already done its job of knocking out those players that are
already short they don't want to give them an opportunity to get a good price
in a short they've already done that themselves by knocking out the initial
bears this breaking point here we want to be selling at that point right there so
when we look at price we're looking for this pattern for ourselves this is the
highest most probable condition to be a short seller in the marketplace
because it has a built-in advantage even though it's the most
12:47
fearful thing for you right now you don't want to sell above an old high
because you haven't practiced enough you haven't seen the effects of looking
at institutional order flow on a higher time frame or any other time frame for
that matter that frames the support ideas around these particular reads on
stops the same thing is said just in opposite terms for when you're looking to
be a buyer you want to see a short term low form at or just above a key
support level it could be a bullish order block
 81

13:16
it could be a liquidity void that hadn't filled in on this pass here that does here
it could be an old load it just simply runs down below if it's an old low there is
no limit to time between this low and the new load it forms okay and that re in
that regards there's no there's no time limit like you can look at an old low
here and it could be six months and then finally it trades down below that low
and then it runs that's still the same pattern here okay ideally you want to see
something that
13:46
has just recently created a low came back a little bit a few days maybe a week
and then it dries one more time through it and hits your bullish institutional
reference point it could be again trading down to an old high or it could be a
lower low it trades down but the main thing is you want to see a low that
makes no real sense stopping there and giving a little tiny little bounce and
then expect that drive lower closing in on that real level you're having on your
chart which constitutes support just like we mentioned over here the
14:20
opposites said here any buyers over here on this little pop is going to have
their protective cell stop just below that low we want to think institutionally
about accumulating those sell stops so if they're going to sell it to us we're
going to be a buyer and we're going to be buying a deep discount with the
expectation now here's the thing you want to see an immediate response
away from that level you don't want to see it trade down below this low and
hang around for a while okay you don't want to see that
14:52
the problem you're going to encounter is because we're trading on a daily time
frame as position traders we're gonna have to wait a long time sometimes for
that confirmation it may it may require the whole entire daily range before the
daily candle creates the wick here so this many times will become the wick
the market will trade down make that low here and then wick away from that
low and then you'll see what many people get excited about as a hammer or
some kind of a doji okay and i'm not
15:25
teaching classical if you want to call it that candlestick patterns but the idea is
candlestick traders trade the candlesticks that have formed institutional
traders we trade it when it's a bold face candle before it becomes that that
wick or that hammer or doji it takes a great deal of confidence to be buying
down here below an old low whereas retail traders they all have reasons to
justify why something should be done after some form of confirmation if you're
demanding confirmation you're not going to get this entry down here
16:00
but you can get a favorable entry point by waiting for a market structure shift
here so when the market structure shifts on the bullish side here all eyes go
back to this reference point here we're not worried about coming back down
here again we don't care about that we're worried just simply for a return to
this level here so again the same mindset we said about the sell side or
bearish breaker on swing point this we know this has already been arrayed on
cell stops there's no expectation or reason to
16:38
 82

believe that the market needs to come back down into this level again
because it's already done its work it's cleared out the sell stops and the
market is quickly rejected the market if it does give you an opportunity to
come back down into this breaking point we can be a buyer here with the
exception that there may be a bullish order block over here it doesn't have to
come back down to this level just like it doesn't have to come all the way back
up to this level it could just come right back up
17:07
to an area over here where there would be another order block to trade off of
depending on how aggressive the selling was away from this high or where
the buying was in terms of magnitude you may never get that return back
down to this price point it may just keep on screaming higher and that's
sometimes going to happen and that's going to be a missed opportunity but i
want you to think about the marketplace in two conceptual ways as it relates
to swing points you have a breaker swing point which is what we're describing
here and
17:38
i'm giving you the classification of it and i'm teaching this one first because
this is the one i trade predominantly because it's based around the pattern i
like to trade which is the turtle suit a false break above an old high rejection
and quickly it moves away and if i don't get the entry off like i want to it i
always give it an opportunity to get back in here so it's like a two-chance setup
and many times you don't get two second chances in trading you know you
either miss it and you never get it again or
18:10
you take it you lose money and here this pattern is in my opinion the best
pattern in in market structure when you're looking for uh institutional
evidences to what should be taking place in price when you see this pattern
unfold and you learn to anticipate it you're going to have the highest probable
entries for all your setups because you're actually entering at the lowest
possible point for buys and you're selling at the highest possible point for
sales and yes it takes a great deal of conviction to do that but it also
18:42
doesn't demand it you can wait for this pattern to give it to you by waiting for
the break above the market structure here which is ironic because you don't
get that same forgiveness with the next pattern we're going to talk about
which is the failure swing.
 83

this is the failure swings is the second form of institutional swing points again
i understand that you know you probably understand this a little bit but i'm
giving you some additional points because if we're going to start breaking the
market down into modular
19:21
form where we can go in and start utilizing these things not just speak about
them in broad terms i want you to narrow your focus to only two ways of
viewing the marketplace when it turns we already mentioned the breaker
swing point and now we're talking about the failure swing the failure swing is
when you identify when there is a resistance level and it trades through it
breaks down and comes back and retests it it can't make another pass
through now this level could be up here it could have been just touching it
here
19:56
and then failed to make another pass to it it's the same thing in same
conditions but we're focusing primarily on is the ability for the market to get
back to this high and make a higher high or the fact that it makes a failure
swing we don't ever know with great deal of conviction if we're gonna get the
breaker set up so while this may be unfolding we could be anticipating this
high being taken out to be a seller up here but many times what will happen is
the market will come up and fall short
20:31
and then break lower and that's a missed opportunity we can't be a seller at a
high price we may have may have even second guessed this entry as a short
but we are demanding a breaker to occur which would be selling above this
old high but it doesn't give it to you here that would be a missed opportunity
but it doesn't mean there's no trading opportunity same thing can be said for
the buy side we have a support level down here the market trades down into it
may trade through it or the blue line representing
21:00
our support level could be down here right at the low it's not important as it
relates to where the actual level is what we're anticipating is is the market's
gonna probably make another pass through and retest this low again we're
aiming for and trying to get breaker swing points if we don't get the breaker
swing point that's not a problem we have an opportunity to trade off of this
pattern as well if we get the buy set up like this and it retraces off of the the
level that we are anticipating
21:32
 84

seeing support at and it comes back and starts to come back down and fails
and makes one more pass up if it takes out this short term high or on the sell
side takes out this short term low we have another opportunity because what
we have here is the market's already shown a willingness to do what it's run
an area of liquidity out it's trap traders above here and traders below here so
sellers are stuck down here and buyers are stuck up here they're not giving
them an opportunity to get out they're quickly repricing here
22:13
so now when we understand that think like an institutional trader if you know
you have a guy on the hook or a fund on the hook up here he's he's long now
if you can reprice the market and go lower with it leave them holding the bag
up here or vice versa they sold on some weakness down here because again
think like those turtle traders long-term position traders they're selling on a
breakout they're selling below 20 period lows and buying above 20 period
highs so if we can see this phenomenon taking
22:48
place where they've moved away from a low aggressively came down but
failed to make a low and then broke through a short-term high in an area
where we anticipate bullishness on an institutional basis we have to sit back
and simply just wait because we'll understand that this movement could have
been moved into a order block that's bullish this could be a bearish order
block this could be a move that goes into a old high to run out buy stops here
it could be an older hot you know height is not being shown in this diagram
just
23:20
like this could be an older low you know to the left of the truck that wouldn't be
shown in this diagram but we're seeing the evidences that they've already did
the manipulation down here we don't know that for certain until we see the
retracement back up here so all this retracement here this is a gray area we
don't know for certain if this is going to stop here or if it's going to continue up
and give us a break or swing point just like we don't know that there's going to
be a continuation to go lower
23:53
to have a breaker swing point for buys here we don't know if it's going to go
down below that low i never know that for certain i never know that i
anticipated the most optimal entry i'm looking for that scenario but it may not
give it to me so if it doesn't and it starts to run the other way i'm just simply
going to put my eye sight right here for the buy and here for the cell if i can't
get a retracement back here or on an idea for a short if i don't see anything to
justify a short here and sometimes that occurs
24:24
sometimes i just you know i don't get it right and i'm human just like anybody
else will if i can't get a short off there and i don't have strong convictions to sell
there it's no problem i'm going to just simply wait for that swing point right here
to be violated and then i'm going to be aiming for this level right there that's
where i'll sell now if i'm going to sell at this level here i can have great
confidence that myself can be protected with a buy stop right above this short-
term high because it's
24:51
 85

in inside this area at which they had already ran the stops out on the form of
buy stops so if my buy stop is here now they're not going to come back up
here and give these opportunity to get off they're not going to let them out so i
can be a seller here with my stop here and look for lower prices same way
can the same thing can be said here if i don't know with great deal of
conviction that this is a good buy or i miss it and it takes off it's no problem i'm
waiting for this little swing point here to be broken
25:22
once that high is broken i can wait for price to come back down to this level
right here when this level is retreated to down here i can be a buyer with a
great deal of confidence that my stop loss can be placed just below this low
because it's going to be in an area where they had already ran the cell stops
now this is probably very 101 ict okay but i want you to come away with this
idea that the institutions go into the marketplace to trap or they go into knock
off that's what they do they are in the business of knocking the
26:00
funds out when they're going to be correct and they'd like to put them in on
the wrong side when they have pending orders that are allow them to be
offside for instance in this case here funds could have buy stops here with the
expectation if it goes out they're thinking this could be a long-term trend filing
buy program where they can hold on to it for many months the institutions will
drive the price up there take those buy stops in but when those buy stocks
become market orders to buy they're selling
26:31
with the expectation they're going to reprice aggressively and then go short i
may read it wrong just like you're going to read it wrong i may be looking for a
breaker scenario up here where it makes a pass above this old high i may be
looking to sell this old high on turtle suit it may never give it to me and i may
not be astute enough watching price to see this is the scenario to really be
selling at so if i miss it just like you're going to miss it too and you see this
breakdown in here no problem wait for it to trade back up to
27:02
this level here and that's where your shorts going to be and your your position
is going to be protected with a stop loss right above this high it's going to be in
an area where it's already been traded to with manipulation buy stops have
already been violated here they're not going to come back up to take those
out if it does you're probably wrong anyway you want to be out same thing is
said over here just in opposite terms when the market comes down here and
rejects you you may not see that
27:29
initially as a rejection you may anticipate one more pass lower to get that ideal
buy and it doesn't do it and if you can't get this off as a long and it starts to
take off no problem you go right back to this price point here and wait for it to
come back down you can be a trader that takes a long position there with your
stop-loss right here again with the expectation that if your stop loss is already
below this low you're in an area where they already ran out sell stops so
there's no reason for
27:55
them to come back down there again especially if they have a very dynamic
price response here the the magnitude of which they move away here and the
 86

magnitude at which they move away here indicates that they have already
trapped a sizable number of orders net long here and seismo orders that are
net short here they're not going to want to let them off and if they are short
how can they get out of their short position if they aggressively reprice higher
they're going to collapse their trade by doing what buying it back they're going
28:28
to reprice quickly so that way they force them to buy back at a higher price
where they can now start scaling off their position that they bought down here
and down here at a net profit and the opposites being said here where they
could quickly reprice here smart money sells here and sells here so if price
aggressively moves lower those that are along in this point here they're going
to want to collapse their trade and they have to sell it so they're not going to
sell it down here where smart money can buy it back after
29:01
being short from this point here so when we look at price i want you to think
again in two institutional swing point theories you have a breaker which is the
ideal most optimal trade entry pattern there is in the marketplace because it's
absolutely the deepest discount buy and the absolute most premium to sell it's
scary to do it it's absolutely uncomfortable when you first start doing it and i i
know what that feels like it's scary but that's the whole purpose of getting into
a demo account where you
29:33
learn to do those types of things you cannot learn it doing with live money
that's all part of this mentorship you have to be practicing in a demo where
you can literally go in there and step in front of the marketplace once it rolls
into a new high sell it get that responsiveness of seeing what happens in price
sometimes it'll keep on going okay no problem you're gonna be wrong but
you're gonna know right away that you're wrong and you don't have a hundred
pip stop on you can have a relatively
30:00
modest stop one point is when you're right you get immediate feedback and
it's very encouraging it's confidence building and usually if you enter on the
right side and you're selling an old high it's amazing because you'll see how
fast the market tanks if you buy an old low and you're doing it on a breaker
setup and it's a swing point in the form of a breaker you're going to be able to
see dynamic rallies just like that take off and it would they'll be explosive so
don't think in terms of classical char
30:31
patterns like head and shoulders or think in terms of uh bear flags and bull
flags things like that only try to convince yourself that there's only two real
ways the market's going to turn around it's going to be on a breaker where
they run stops or it's going to be a failure swing both of them are indicating a
manipulation but they both have to be used slightly different the first one being
the breaker swing point that is the ideal one you want to be looking for that
scenario all the time on any time frame not just a daily
30:59
chart but any time frame but if you can't get the breaker don't fear or be upset
about missing that move because it still gives you the opportunity to get in
there because they're only going to turn the market one of these ways that's it
and nothing else happens in price i challenge you to go in and show me
 87

something where that doesn't do this because i can tell you it's either a
breaker or it's a fair swing every single time it's never anything else so you're
you're limited it's really just
31:26
two conditions in the marketplace if you're going to be a seller how are you
going to be a seller you're going to be selling it at ohi or you're going to be
selling it on a retracement back to a break in market structure that's it if you're
going to be a buyer are you going to be buying an old low or are you going to
be buying on a return or retracement back to a market structure break to be a
buyer at support there it's just that simple nothing else can happen there's no
there's not 50 000
31:51
patterns to be looking for there's not all these different candlestick patterns to
memorize okay new dark clouds covering this and no inverted hammer that
it's just simply understanding where are the orders relative to old institutional
order flow reference points key support resistance on high time frames how is
the market behaving at that level did was it able to pass through it and did it
reject if it went up to it fell short it's probably going to make one more pass
higher and it might give you that
32:18
breaker entry if it doesn't give you a breaker inch and it gives you a fair swing
this is how you trade them but there's nothing you need to worry about in a
demo account while you're teaching yourself if you're if you're worrying about
rushing to get in with live money if you don't know the characteristics between
these two swing point theories you're going to hurt yourself you're going to be
frustrated you're not going to be able to focus and you're going to end up
chasing price or blowing your
32:43
account and then you're gonna be frustrated you know or taking taken
completely out of the marketplace where you can't fulfill your dreams as a
trader so hopefully this has been insightful to you guys i'm gonna wish you a
good luck and good trading.
 88

Using 10 Year Notes In HTF Analysis

89
 90

10-year yields in a higher time frame analysis okay 10-year notes in higher
time frame analysis you can see here on the right hand side we have a
seasonal tendency for the 10-year treasury note and i want to take a look at
the seasonal tendency chart for a minute and try to see where the most
significant price swings occur and don't worry we'll be able to zoom in in a
moment but you can see primarily there is a january february high
00:49
it trades down to a june low and then a june low trading up into december's
highs so there's two primary or dominant cycles in the seasonal for treasury
notes and it's bearish for the first half of the year and then bullish for the
second part of the year this teaching is going to give us an example where
that takes place and we're also going to see when the seasonal tendency
doesn't have an influence on the market and we're also going to see when the
market actually performs adversely or contrary to the seasonal
01:21
tendency okay before we get into it some quick notes for you when we chart
the 10-year treasury prices or the futures contract we're using barchart.com
when we chart the 10-year treasury yields we'll be using investing.com both of
these websites are free and some quick notes for you treasury prices are
inverted to its yield as treasury prices drop that means the futures contract for
the 10-year treasury notes when that price drops on the chart that shows a
treasury yields increase as treasury prices rise
02:08
treasury yields decline as a general rule of thumb long-term funds seek yield
that means money will be placed or allocated in areas at which it will seek the
majority or most return on investment okay the dollar index has it relatively
easy or it can rally when the yields increase and this is seen when the futures
contract prices drop on the 10-year note and the dollar has its easiest or most
opportune time to decline when yields decrease this is seen when the
treasury futures price rise okay here we have a zoomed in
03:05
seasonal tendency on the 10-year treasury note and i want to take your
attention to the first portion of the seasonal tendency and this is in january to
february there's a high that generally forms and it trades down into around
june or middle of the year and around june july it's really like the last week of
may really if you look at it it's the last week of may and rolls into the first week
 91

of july usually it makes a seasonal low there and in the 10-year treasury notes
usually rally the rest of the year
03:39
now if we have this seasonal tendency on the underlying futures contract
price in other words on the treasury prices this is not the yield the yield would
be inverted okay so in other words if we're watching the june july low and
prices on the 10-year are rallying that means interest rates are actually
dropping so it's going to be an adverse effect or inverted effect on the yield if
we see this occurring in the 10-year treasury we should be seeing what in the
dollar index if we could show a seasonal tenancy which we happen to have
one in
04:25
the next slide by the way if we have the dollar index as a seasonal tendency
should this be occurring at the same time that we see the june july rally should
that be occurring with a bullish or bearish move in the dollar index uh here's
that seasonal tendency for the dollar and you can see around the january
february time there's usually a rally that takes place which is contrary to what
we saw in the 10-year treasury notes declining then we have a significant high
forming between june and july and then the dollar index typically
05:09
trades down the rest of the year usually making a low around the last week of
october first week of november and it creates a small little bounce on
november time period for the dollar index so the primary two trends in this
market for the dollar that is in alignment with the seasonal tendencies seen in
the tenure is there is a bearish tone to the marketplace for the dollar index
mid-june to july and then we also see some rallying on the dollar index the
beginning of the year going into march now there is a seasonal tendency for
05:45
dollar to decline march into may but that would have to be in bearish markets
and in bullish markets you could expect to see november be a buy may be a
buy and january be a buy for dollar index and the sales come in that march
june july and there's one in uh september and it usually creates uh some short
uh high in the latter portion of november let's go back to the 10-year treasury
notes just for a moment okay you see there's a strong contrast between the
two and that means that we do have a high probability scenario for if
06:31
the 10-year treasury notes are rallying in the in the futures price that means
that the yield will be doing the opposite they'll be going down so interest rates
will be dropping the interest rates are dropping that's going to cause the
tendency for yield seeking traders or investors to avoid the dollar index
because if the interest rates are dropping that's not going to incite wanting to
buy dollar-based assets so the reason why we're seeing this adverse effect
here is because there is a direct inverted relationship between the two
07:11
so if we have this blending of these two markets it gives us a context to work
with if we're going to be looking for quarterly shifts in the marketplace okay
here's the 10-year treasury note this is the september contract of 2015. and
remember that we saw the seasonal tendency to form a low in june july and a
10-year treasury node contract for september because the u in symbols name
 92

znu15 left hand corner that u stands for the month of september that's the
delivery contract of september you can see that the contract prices or
07:55
treasury note prices started to rally in june that means that the yields are
going to be decreasing or declining and that's going to be bearish for the
dollar index you see in june july we made a short-term high traded lower we
violated the low in may and then look what happens between mid-june into
july and august the dollar index actually has a little bit of a rally at the same
time going back to that september contract of treasury notes 10-year the
same time the treasury notes were rallying with its seasonal tenancy if we
look at
08:39
the dollar index it was slightly bullish as well so when we see this scenario we
are looking at the likelihood if they're moving in tandem that means we're
actually going to be in a large consolidation that means it's not going to be a
trending environment most likely and that means we want to look for previous
highs and previous lows to be violated and back to the middle of the range
you can see that was the effect here after july and august the late part of
august we came all the way down took out the may june lows
09:11
the market essentially for the dollar index moved sideways 2016 september
contract of 10-year treasury notes again we can see that last week of may
going into june that seasonal tendency for a load of form for 10-year treasury
notes 10-year treasury notes rally all up into july and that should give us a
bear stance for the dollar index the same time [Music] and as you can see we
did have a bearish decline in the last week of may going into june and it gave
one more lower low in the lighter portion of june but look
09:52
what happens again we have the dollar index rally one more time and again
we'll go back to the previous slides you can see the 10-year treasury note see
i have a slightly higher high going into july as well and then we saw that and
we saw that one more higher high pushed into the dollar index in the latter
portions of july again this is going to be an indication that the markets are
going to be in a large consolidation so think about what we've already shown
here if the market's showing the tendency to be in a large consolidation
10:24
why because both yield and dollar ten year treasuries and the dollar are
moving in the same direction if that occurs what we're looking at is long-term
indecisiveness and that means because both of them are moving in tandem
the likelihood of a continued directional trade higher or lower for either one is
highly unlikely so we would be focusing on looking for stop raids or looking for
if the data range to look back and see previous highs and lows to be violated
when both treasury and on the dollar index so if we're looking at this condition
what do
11:04
you suppose that does for foreign currencies it does several things number
one it puts you in a long-term consolidation on foreign currencies because the
dollar is in consolidation and treasuries are under consolidation if we see
times when the treasury market is in fact moving in its seasonal tenancy and
the dollar is supporting that same seasonal tendency then we have a strong
 93

probability of a directional long-term trend and that's where the large funds
place their money when you get into the marketplace on those moves you
have
11:38
these long periods of many weeks several months in terms of one directional
bias moves in other words long-term trends okay our next example now we're
looking at the march contract of the 10-year treasury notes for 2017 and i'm
using this contract because it allows me to show the data for the latter portion
of 2016 and going into present trading day you can see here that treasury
market seasonal tendency to create a high in november and let's go back to
that seasonal tendency just so you guys can see it
12:26
okay here's the seasonal tendency once again for the 10-year treasury note
all the way to the far right you can see that green line that vertical line that
most furthest to the right that furthest most right green vertical line that
delineates the beginning of the trading for the march delivery contract you can
see that that actually makes the high of the march contract and it starts to
trade off lower from that price point that seasonal tendency to create that high
for a march contract is going to be influential
12:55
for us in that next slide that we just looked at so here we are back again that
same 10-year treasury notes slide for 2017's march contract now we had the
presidential election obviously in 2016 and what we're looking at is that high
that the election results shown for donald trump making our president-elect at
that time of vote the seasonal tendency for the march contract could create a
high you can see that came into effect in november so while we're looking at
the end of that uptrend for the seasonal
13:38
tendency on the 10-year treasury note we're looking at the beginning of a
seasonal high and that gives us that movement going lower into the latter
portions of december and that's what you see here that's transpired 2016. if
we see this occurring okay and it's now trending it's not in consolidation it's
down trending for the 10-year treasury notes that's going to provide the
opportunity for the dollar index to do the opposite but also do it in a fashion
that's in a trending mode
14:08
you see in november we had that same in fact just in opposite terms where
the election shown the sell-off in the 10-year treasury notes that sell-off shows
an increase in interest rates which means there's going to be an interest to
now buy dollar because it's going to be going higher as the 10-year treasury is
dropping interest rates are increasing which means that there's going to be
buyers that's going to be seeking yield by buying the dollar index and you can
see the market did in fact have a trending environment trying
14:39
trending higher then creating a short-term low in december and finally making
its high in the first portion of december of this year so the moral of all this is
that if we study the 10-year treasury notes in its price action it's either going to
be moving in its seasonal tendency or if the dollar index moves in tandem with
it that suggests that we're going to be in a large consolidation if you look at all
 94

the currency pairs that we trade in the form of the british pound the euro dollar
those pairs were in big
15:14
consolidations all through the mid portion of 2016. that was attributed to the
consolidation that we saw in the 10-year treasury note and the dollar index
because they're basically moving in the same direction but they were range
bound that's going to translate into range bound trading as well the only
caveat is going to be until we saw the brexit vote and that's obviously going to
be the big impact for the latter portions of the summer months but prior to that
everything in the marketplace we saw was all range bound
15:48
for currency trading so now one of the things i said about this month that's
going to be helpful to you is when are you looking for a trade that's going to be
explosive and trending when the 10-year treasury notes seasonal tendency is
in effect you see it happening and it's supported with the contrary in price
action you see in the dollar index as we described here if they are not
showing that chances are we're going to be in a range bound consolidation
and that means you're going to be focusing on very short-term
16:16
moves that means it's going to be high probability for short-term trades and
day trades and highly unlikely for long-term position trades long-term position
trades are going to be favorable in the conditions we've just shown here when
we see 10-year treasury notes moving in trending environments that's going
to put the dollar index into a trending environment also if we see the absence
of the seasonal tendency the strongest in the form of the buy signal for 10-
year treasury notes around june july if that's not occurring then we're going
16:49
to be focusing on where the highs form seasonally in the seasonal tendency
for the 10-year treasury units to get ourselves in sync with the opposite scope
in other words just because the seasonal tendency is the strongest as a buy
in june july for 10-year treasuries doesn't mean that when that is not the case
because the markets are not always doing the same thing every single time
we can focus primarily being a bearish 10-year note trader which would give
us the november high as we indicated here which lined up also for the season
z4
17:22
our election this year so we're going to build on this model here in the next
teaching and until then wish good luck
 95

Qualifying Trade Conditions With 10 Year Yields

+ THE 10 Y pic
 96

qualifying trade conditions with the 10-year yields okay the previous teaching
2.1 we had looked at the 10-year node seasonal tenancy where it has a
strong tendency to Rally in June and we're looking at the 10-year note for
September 2015 here you can see how during the month of June of 2015 10-
year note did in fact make a low in June and while the seasonal tendency is in
force how do you know the seasonal tendency is
00:53
most likely going to occur well the first step is you want to start looking to
qualify the swings in relationship to the dollar Index and that's seen by looking
at these lower lows here so our delineation begins at the beginning of June
2015 and subsequent lower lows it transpired after June 2015 began we start
seeing a slide in price and took out the low from May but individually there
was five to six different candles deck progressively kept making lower lows in
the first half of June that's being delineated here but this short
01:33
little trend line now in the dollar Index this is going to be ideally seen with a
series of higher highs that's how Market symmetry should be posted and
delivered in price but let's take a look at what actually happens in the dollar
Index at that same moment we can see that the dollar Index for June 2015
immediately to the right or after June 1st trading day we were making lower
highs so this is a crack and correlation and we have confirmation now there is
a trade idea unfolding in to 10-year treasury note against the
02:20
dollar Index it's further confirmed by seeing the interest rate Market declining
at that time as the yield declines the Futures price on a 10-year note was
actually rallying note also did the consolidation that the yield stayed in which
also led to a consolidation in dollar Index 10-year Treasury and foreign
currencies at the same time in 2015.
03:03
okay we're looking at the June of 2016. again we're looking at that seasonal
tenancy as seen here the market was making equal lows so they should be
seen in respect to the dollar Index with equal highs here's the dollar Index
going into June 2016. did you see here the market made higher highs this is a
cracking correlation the Market's shown a willingness to go higher in the dollar
Index but it was not seen in the form of going lower on the 10-year notes
that's a correct correlation there therefore it is a qualifying condition
03:52
there is an underlying trade underway this is further confirmed by visually
seeing the the interest rate Market seeing it decline in the 10-year yields again
notice the consolidation while it looks like if you zoomed in really tight it would
look like an uptrend but we're still in a rather large consolidation and that is
attributing factors to why the currency markets had a consolidation this period
of time lastly we have the 10-year treasury note March contract 2017.
04:43
we have a lower high now I know you're looking at that big wick on the
elections but just dispel that for a moment focus on the market structure alone
without that Wick we have lower high formed in the first couple days of
 97

November relative to the mid October highs so that should be seen supported
in the dollar Index as well just contrary in fact we see a lower low so for the
dollar Index to have a lower low here we should have seen a higher high form
in the 10-year note that didn't happen we see the opposite with a lower low
05:36
in dollar Index we don't see the higher high in 10-year treasury nodes as you
would expect to see with the lower low in dollar Index again it's going to be a
mirror image of everything you see for perfect symmetry when that symmetry
is broken it indicates there is a underlying Trend or manipulation otherwise
you can also see the open interest decline in November supporting the idea
that there was short covering by the smart money and the dollar Index moved
up as a result again because the 10-year note was in a move that was
06:16
trending it had more range to go lower that supports the trending move on a
dollar Index where I was allowed to trade for two complete months and you
can see it's supported with the increase in the interest rate yield on the 10-
year note during that time when the dollar rallied markets seek yield and if the
interest rate's increasing therefore the dollar has a strong tendency to own a
rally as well now as a side note when we see these things occurring in the
price you want to be blending these ideas with
06:51
the quarterly shift Concepts that's been taught in this month's content so if
we're looking for the next three to four months potential next swing not that
we're holding for that period of time or our time Horizon is three months out
generally it's going to be half that time frame for the trade setups to come to
fruition and complete sometimes the trades will last longer and go a full
duration of three months and sometimes a little bit longer but as I mentioned
in this mentorship my time Horizon is about three months it's I I
07:29
think it's pretty much it's realistic as you're gonna get because long-term
trends while they all generally stay in the long-term trending environment they
can reverse and if it's in a long-term uptrend you don't want to be trying to pick
the top so it's important that I remind you every time we talk about this that my
focus primarily is looking at a time Horizon of three months with the
expectation I'm going to trade with a position that may go up to three months
but rarely admittedly I don't
08:00
hold that long uh usually half that time frame but you can go in and look at
these times when the season will align and there are qualifying smt
divergences between the dollar Index and the 10-year note when they have
that pattern there you can also qualify it with an interest rate Triad or you can
go into a Forex currency pair and look for the smt Divergence against the
dollar index that way those ideas Blended together not that you need both of
them but one of them will give you a qualification for a trade idea that may
08:45
be unfolding for a quarterly shift by getting in sync with the marketplace like
this and viewing a higher time frame charts with these tools in alignment it
 98

gives your trades a high probability and it filters out a lot of the noise and even
if you don't trade in a long-term position capacity you can use these ideas to
get in sync with higher time frame Trend or higher time frame order flow and
by doing that it puts all your swing trade short-term trade day trade and
Scouts in line with institutional workflow and with that
09:20
it's very hard to go wrong not perfect it doesn't negate the opportunity for you
to lose money but it certainly does put the odds in your favor until next time
wish you good luck and good Trading.
 99

Interest Rate Differentials

interest rate differentials okay central bank interest rates if we're going to be
looking at a macro view it really needs to start here and there's several places
on the internet you can go to get this list but this is the global currency interest
rates from the central banks this is the list you can get from fxstreet.
00:45
com you do a simple google search and in the notes for the pdf i'll have all the
links for all these things even though they don't show up in the actual
presentations in your pdf file like i said the notes will be rich with details about
where to get the information from and what you can do with it but this list is
from fxstreet.
01:04
com and what you want to do is when you look at the list and obviously it's a
rather anemic list of interest rates currently in the current state of uh the global
economy but generally there's always going to be a higher interest rate
among another currency versus another country and basically what you're
going to do is you simply look for a currency or country in this case that has a
high interest rate as you see here the highest on this list is the reserve bank of
new zealand the second in the high end of the interest rates would be
 100

01:42
reserve bank of australia and obviously the low end would be the bank of
japan and the swiss bank and the european central bank at zero we're going
to go through this in two passes in other words we're going to find two trading
examples on a higher time frame basis using interest rate differentials starting
with the interest rates that are pegged at the central bank level now again if
we're looking at this this is going to cut to what fundamental basis there is to
buy or sell a particular currency uh you can't get any more fundamental
02:25
than interest rates so if we're going to look at these countries if we pick for
instance a currency that we want to be a buyer of obviously money seeks
yield so it makes perfect sense to be a buyer of australian or new zealand
currency if you're expecting weakness in a particular country or in a country's
economy you can see that in the form of a weak interest rate for that particular
currency or that country uh swiss national bank bank of japan european
central bank bank of canada bank of england even federal reserve really it's
very
03:15
low end on the interest rate curve based on this list here so if we were to take
a look at these countries we could build a model on a higher time frame basis
on long-term macro trades which have the most opportunity to move based on
a fundamental establishment of interest rates being utilized for the selection
process put in other words funds will seek to trade high yielding currencies
and place that against a weak yielding currency and they will look to buy
strong currencies and sell against weak currencies and they will look to sell
04:02
against currencies and buy against strong currencies in other words they're
going to be buying strong payers and selling weak pairs all right let's take a
look at selecting a pair for trading first thing you do is you want to look for a
country that has a high interest rate then you want to select a country with a
low interest rate it doesn't have to be the lowest of the low it doesn't have to
be the highest of the high it can be just a very strong difference between the
two interest rates and then obviously once you select the
04:41
high end and the low end currency or country in this respective currency
obviously you're going to determine the forex pair coupling based on those
two respective countries for an example we're going to assume that the
australian dollar is our selection for our high interest rate yielding country and
the interest rate comes in at 1.
05:04
5 percent and we're going to pair that up with a weaker currency from the
federal reserve which is the u.s market with a 0.75 percent or three-quarter
point now i'm going to have to remind you that this data is factored in with a
interest rate hike of 25 basis points so at the time of the trade we're going to
actually review the federal reserve central bank rate was at 0.
05:36
50 but when we look at this the way we couple that up for a 4x pair obviously
the australian dollar pair is what we'd be looking at once we arrive at our
currency that we're going to be focusing on being a buyer of buying strength
against a weaker currency for instance the dollar index here we're looking for
 101

strong support on a higher time frame chart now we're thinking long-term
macro perspective so we're only looking for large moves in a fund level trend
following idea but before we get to that
06:11
point we have to expect some sizable move that's going to be positioned with
big flows behind it again we're fundamentally aligning ourselves with the
central bank interest rates we're coupling a pair based on a high yield interest
rate 1.5 percent versus a half of one percent at the time of the trade but in this
case we have to show the numbers as they are here now uh 0.
06:38
75 percent we wait for smart money clues that it's being bought now we went
through several of those things that indicates that in the mentorship so far but
we'll revisit a few of them for this example seasonal tendency and or open
interest can confirm this so there's our two elements of smart money tools that
we can use it doesn't have to use every possible scenario we only need one
or two to confirm and we are looking for us dollar index directional
confirmation that qualifies the setup.

we're going to look at the

07:17
australian dollar this is the cash price for australian dollar and we identified a
long-term support level old low in the form of 71.50 and we move over to our
march contract 2017 of australian dollar which would be the active contract
that you would be trading at the end of december 2016. we're going to add
that 7150 level on our chart you can see price has traded into that as support
now i want you to take a closer look at what's going on with open interest as
you see open interest has been declining and notice this big reduction here
08:02
that purple line dropping like that that's a massive reduction in open interest
open interest is going to be a indication that there's short covering by way of
the smart money or large commercial traders if they're short covering that
means that they're not trying to assume the other side of the trade for buyers
they want to reset themselves because they anticipate what if they don't want
to be short they're anticipating sharply higher prices and that's what you get
here off that 71.50 now look at the look at the
08:36
 102

magnitude of the move seen with the australian dollar here remember the
payer that we're trading in the forex market is aussie dollar all z has that
higher 1.5 interest rate the federal reserve was offering 0.50 to the latter part
of december where it was adjusted for another 25 basis point pike so now it's
at 0.
09:05
75 percent for the federal reserve rate it's still half of the interest rate that's
yielding on the australian central bank consider how much this pair has
moved from the 71.50 level 400 plus pips have been seen from this rally off of
a higher time frame support level 71.50 now just because it trades in a higher
time frame support level doesn't mean that it's going to trade higher but when
you couple that 7150 level which is a higher time support level or an old low
and you also notice that the market has seen a sudden reduction in open
interest
09:42
which is short covering on the part of smart money and you couple the idea
fundamentally that the higher yielding interest rate of 1.5 percent from the
australian central bank coupled against the weaker 0.75 percent or if you want
to go back and use the half of one percent rate either way you're getting a
higher yield off of the australian currency versus the dollar and that's why
we've seen such a sharp rally and why i have been talking about the
australian dollar going higher as a basis of our teaching
10:19
throughout this mentorship we've been talking about the australian dollar
going higher with respective levels that have just recently been hit with 75 80
as that level that we just mentioned from last week the fundamentals if you
will okay were aligned with the central bank interest rate of one and a half
percent coupled against a weaker federal reserve 0.
10:43
75 interest rate for the dollar when you have that basis and you have
technicals to support it and you're looking at a hard time frame chart like this it
lines your pockets with wonderful opportunities to continuously take large
moves out of the marketplace and you don't need to be trading a lot by
looking at these higher time frame interest rate yield scenarios coupling it with
high odds probability technicals you get yourself in sync with the most
significant price moves to are going to most likely surprise many of
11:16
the neophyte traders you can see also that we had a higher high in the dollar
index when we fail to make a lower low in the australian dollar.
 103

a pair with a low interest rate this time and we're going to select a country with
a high interest rate and we're going to determine the forex pair that couples
for that trade in this example we're going to use a higher yielding currency 0.
11:59
75 percent which again that was actually half of one percent of the time when
this trade is being shown so i have to adjust it show you for your notes versus
japanese uh economy and their central bank rate was negative and the two
respective countries and their currencies would be paired up in the form of
dollar yen we're going to look for strong resistance on higher time frame
charts we're going to wait for smart money clues that it's being sold in other
words we want to see japanese yen hit resistance levels and show indications
12:39
that it wants to sell off and we're looking for seasonal tendencies and or open
interest to confirm the trade and looking for dollar index directional
confirmation to qualify the up so if we have the expectation that the weaker
currency is the japanese yen interest rate basis against the stronger of the
two the dollar which has the higher yielding central bank rate we're going to
see that u.
13:07
s dollar versus japanese yen pair actually go higher because you're buying
dollar and selling in so if we're expecting weaker japanese yen because of the
weaker lower interest rate that means that the pair we coupled for foreign
exchange trading the dollar yen is the pair we'll be trading so even though
we're looking for weakness in yen we're looking for the opposite of that for the
pair the way it's formed so the dollar yen pair is actually going to strengthen or
go up in our charts.
 104

as it relates to
13:45
the cash you can see the weekly chart here and a bearish order block at the
9800 level right here and that would set the stage for a move this is the cash
price of the japanese yen and price trades up into that 90 big figure and
weakness is seen from that point one obviously this is seen on the heels of
the donald trump election but nonetheless this move many hundreds of pips
well over 1200 pips of a price move and again it's based on the central bank
interest rate and the differential between the two and by having that coupled
14:42
with strong technicals seasonal tendency understanding that the market was
expected high volatility because of the election this massive decline seen in
the cash price of japanese yen is also seen in the understanding because of
our analysis or my own analysis as we were going through the mentorship
why i was calling the dollar yen higher all those factors for leading us up into
those commentaries this was the basis behind it all having the higher yielding
interest rate of the dollar versus the weaker currency interest rate of the yen
15:23
and coupling that with the technicals that we teach or use in the inner circle
trader repertoire it gives you these massive price moves based on a higher
time frame premise so you're using these things again you're not using them
to day trade you're not using them to facilitate short-term trades but if you
trade in that direction obviously your trades will be a lot higher probability but
they're more inclined to be used on a higher time frame basis because the
large funds because of the nature of
 105

15:56
their trading style their trend filing in nature they're going to look at
fundamental reasons to trade specific currencies and if you look at the moves
that's transpired in the last three to six months all of the big moves come by
way of the information that's drawn by the differentials that we've discussed
so far here and the method of using those central bank interest rates pegging
them together to get specific currency pairs and having technicals align you'll
be able to see that footprint of large
16:29
flows and funds pouring money into a particular currency if you look at the
dollar yen pair in relationship to this in november you would see a strong buy
or a low in that particular currency pair so we're going to talk more about
differentials we're actually going to start talking about yield spreads also when
we get into swing trading so there's other information we're going to talk about
with interest rate differentials and yield spreads but for now go through your
charts and look at the interest rate differentials between
17:02
all the weaker and higher yielding currencies on the central bank level and
look back over the last six months and see what payers you see and find
through as a homework excitement look for setups that took place higher
timeframe support resistance levels institutional order flow ideas open
interests try to incorporate that as well on support levels and then justify why
in hindsight now this is a good exercise go back in hindsight and justify why
the fundamentals were an alignment with those significant price moves and
again
17:34
you're looking back three to six months for currency pair moves to take place
now i don't tell people or even advise people to trade exotic pairs now exotic
pairs would be like uh euro swissy okay or something like that but look at
some of those currency pairs to have a higher yielding interest rate versus a
lower interest rate okay and how you would pair them up in a forex pair and
look at the respective price action in the last three to six months on those
pairs viewing the the information that we're
18:11
using from the central bank level at the interest rate again this is a really
simplistic approach to trading long term and it's coupled with dare i say it
again a fundamental application of how the funds would go in and move large
scale into a particular currency or out of a currency based on the interest rate
information that we've covered here today until next time i wish you good
luck .
 106

How To Use Intermarket Analysis

 107

inter-market analysis okay our internet market analysis presentation here is

going to be predominantly conceptualized thinking so there's no charts here
there's nothing exciting okay but it's dry useful information but it's very very
dry so I'm going to warn you ahead of time so if you're trying to do something
apart from 100 attention you want to see this lesson for a time when you can
focus on
00:53
the presentation very closely and take notes okay so World Markets are
directly linked to one another and it's probably a common understanding but a
lot of people don't realize exactly how they're related what relationships exists
what correlations if the if you will exist between certain Market asset classes
certain groups in certain sectors uh there's closely related uh correlations
between some unexpected markets where without having a global or macro
understanding of what they do as a country in terms of exports you wouldn't
01:30
understand what the relationships would be without having that information or
that study behind you so understanding them as a collective whole or how
these markets relate with one another will Aid in your analysis and now since
the January content is predominantly focused on 100 long-term analysis our
Focus needs to be on the relationships of these four groups the four major
groups of inter-market analysis are as follows to bond in interest rate markets
the commodity markets the stock market and the currencies Market
02:13
 108

all four of these groups together are closely related with one another now they
don't move lock step to one another there's not a Five Points higher for bonds
therefore it's going to be five points in another asset class or group that's
going to move in relationship to that movement it doesn't work like that since
we're looking at long-term macro perspectives and Analysis Concepts there's
going to be a certain measure of lead and lag time for some of these Market
relationships and for some of you
02:44
that's going to turn you off right away because you're used to knowing this is
what it's supposed to do and therefore I'm going to expect it right now and
when you're being a long-term Trader or using long-term analysis there's
going to be a certain measure of lead time and lag time before you actually
see the marketplace reflect what would be expected in terms of the analysis
Concepts but the benefit of this is and this is what I have gravitated towards
you can use an economist Theory which is instead
03:14
of going through fundamental data looking at things like CPI or employment
trends or all these fundamental data points that are released throughout the
month every single month that's just too much information for me to digest
and I don't ever claim to have the mental capacity to understand it all in fact
I've said many times in all of my teachings that I don't believe that there is a
realistic way of staying abreast of all those types of things if you're wading
through all that data I mean either you have to be a serious
03:41
data nut or it to me it's over everyone's head you just I just don't think it could
be done I'd love to meet someone that could do it fundamentally improve
beyond the shadow of a doubt that they can use that fundamental data to
forecast future prices okay that would be wonderful if I could find that that
would be something I would probably add to my repertoire but in my studies
I've never been able to really ascertain anyone to be able to use that
information and be able to forecast with a great deal of
04:10
accuracy if you will now even on a long term basis because the markets are
slow to come to fruition these these Market moves take a long time to develop
and unfold in our charts it takes a great deal of patience and while there's a lot
of information to Wade through if you go through it fundamentally and using
all those data points and and data to me if we just focus on these four major
groups it'll give us all the insights that that data will ultimately give give you a
fundamentalist so what I mean by that we're going to actually
04:45
break down some of the relationships as we go through this mentorship but in
this teaching here I want to give you kind of like an overview and some of the
things that I have picked up along the way as a Trader that I like to focus on
when I'm looking at Market relationships all right so enter market analysis
overview now the four major groups for the inter market analysis the bond
market and interest rate Market bonds and stocks generally they move
together okay so if we're seeing a Bond Market rally and it's the bond prices
 109

05:16
not the yield okay so if we're looking at the treasury bond market and the bond
prices are rallying higher in an uptrend generally that's going to be helpful and
supportive of a bull market for stocks conversely if you see the bomb the bond
market in a bear Market it's been trending lower it's going to be very hard for
stocks to Rally in that environment now it doesn't mean that it can't rally okay
it just means that that underlying trend of the bond market moving lower is
going to have a effect
05:45
and weight on that stock market rally and eventually you're going to have to
pay the piper and that stock market's going to have to correct and get back in
alignment with the overall trend of the bond market Commodities are a market
group that moved opposite to the bond prices so if we see bonds moving
higher Commodities will be moving lower in relationship to that move and our
third Group stock market stocks move together with bonds as we said you
have to constantly refer to the market indices for stocks and the bond market
06:21
or if you're a stock Trader you can use the information that's gleaned from the
bond market preferably if you're going to be a stock market Trader you want
to be looking at the bond market as a indicator that you have underlying
strength in the bond market so if bond prices are going higher and your buyer
of stocks then you can go in with a great deal of confidence that you have the
fundamentals behind you that lower interest rates with the bond prices rallying
stocks like that if bonds are trading lower
06:51
stocks don't like higher interest rates and that's what's going to happen if you
see bond prices dropping that means the interest rate yields are actually
increasing bonds do not like a high interest rate environment and currencies
obviously are influenced by Commodities so the effects of export sales and
production in relationship to certain Commodities that's going to have a direct
impact on specific Commodities and specific currencies okay we're gonna
look at their first relationship here as the U.S dollar
07:26
versus commodities okay we're going to look at this as a inversely related
relationship in other words they move opposites to each other that means if
the dollar Index is moving One Direction the commodity in as a group as a
whole Commodities will be moving the opposite direction so for example
specifically US dollar Index if it's trading higher Commodities as a whole
should be trending lower and if the dollar Index is trending lower or trading
lower Commodities will be doing the opposite and going higher
08:00
now when we're looking at Commodities okay grains in agriculturals are very
export sensitive so if we have a strong dollar that's going to diminish the
desire or demand for exports in the form of grains and livestock agricultural
markets in other words grains and meats and if the US dollar Index shows
weakness that instills an increase or demand for grain in agricultural exports
 110

US dollar Index if it's going higher or rallying this is also seen with stocks and
bonds moving up because it's supportive of
08:40
the stock and bond market going higher US dollar Index if it moves lower this
is seen with support with stocks and bonds both trending lower as well US
dollar Index if it's moving higher this is going to be seen with commodity
currencies moving lower in dollar Index if it's moving down it's going to see a
commodity currency Rally or movement higher and the way you measure this
is you could look at the US dollar Index versus the crb index which is
commodity research Bureau index you can get that information on the internet
at
09:20
crbtrader.com I'll give you some notes in the PDF file that would include more
information on all the things that you'll hear about in this presentation okay the
next one is the bonds versus commodities and bonds and commodities have
an inverse relationship as well that means they again move opposite to one
another now if the bond prices or the treasury bond market okay moves up or
trades higher that generally is going to have a impact on Commodities moving
lower and if bonds are trending or trading lower that's going to allow
Commodities
09:55
to Rally now when we're looking at the relationship between bonds or treasury
bonds 30 year treasury nodes and the commodity Market what we're really
focusing on is inflationary impact so if we're following along and looking for
signs of inflation it's going to be noticed in the markets that are Commodities
Commodities are the leading indication for inflationary environments so what's
the lead in lag time in a change or long-term basis for the bond and
commodity relationships because we're dealing with a long-term macro
10:35
perspective on these two assets it can sometimes take 6 to 12 months before
you see a change in trend on the relationship between the bonds and the
commodities now that means that Commodities may turn up and bonds may
eventually turn lower as a result later on or bonds may turn up and
commodities may turn lower later on as a result of that it doesn't happen lock
step for step it doesn't give you that immediate feedback because it's long-
term macro fundamentals are behind these big moves especially when we're
dealing with these
11:11
two asset classes in the relationship basis so it takes a long time sometimes
for the effects of interest rate changes or supply and demand factors that are
really weighed in the consumption or production of Commodities as a whole
now treasury bonds or t-bonds versus the crb index is what you'll be using to
measure the relationship between the two but the crb index let me add this to
your notes it's very heavily weighted with the Agricultural and grain markets so
when we look at crb index it's very
11:44
 111

very heavy on soybean prices wheat prices corn prices cattle prices hog
prices okay so you have to keep that in mind when you're looking at crb index
foreign you want to use the Goldman Sachs commodity index when you're
looking for the energy focused side of the marketplace in other words it's
heavily weighted on energy and you want to weigh that against the bond
market and the Goldman Sachs industrial metal index and this is um for focus
on global Trends and it's not meant for metals like silver
12:24
Palladium platinum gold okay these metals are like zinc tin copper aluminum
they're Industrial Metals so they're heavily sensitive to Global Trends and big
sensitive tendencies in the marketplace around the world where if there's a
big demand for Industrial Metals then you'll see it in this index if there's not
there's also going to be evidence of that in this index as well and in summary
bond yields when they're going higher that would be seen with the bond
market going lower or the bond
13:03
price is going lower that means bond yields are increasing and that's going to
push Commodities up and my bond yields are going down that means the
treasury bond market prices are going higher that's going to push
Commodities down okay we're going to look at the bonds versus the stock
market now this has a positive correlation that means they move in the same
direction and obviously that means when the bond market is trending higher
or trading higher that's going to provide strength for stocks and support for it
13:40
name of the bond markets trending or moving lower this will have an effect
that's bearish on stocks and the bond market or the treasury bond or 30-year
Benchmark acts as a leading indicator for stock Direction the lead in lag time
in changes for long-term trends again can be 6 to 12 months in duration that
means what you see going on in the long-term trends of the bond market may
take a little bit of time up to yes I say a year before you see these long-term
trends start to manifest themselves in the stock market
14:19
now there's one caveat with this okay when there's deflationary periods that
means when prices are decreasing and this is a rarity it doesn't happen a lot
we actually saw this in the latter part of 1998 it was it was indicated in the in
the markets that there was potentially that happening but when this occurs the
bonds perform very well because you're actually seeing the interest rate
markets collapsing but with bonds going up that's usually seen in a in a
deflationary period you're usually seeing bonds going higher
14:52
the bond prices or treasury bonds price going higher with stocks going lower
and commodities going down like I said it's a rarity that ever happens but
usually you would not ever really going to see a deflation appear that I can
imagine anytime soon okay finally we're gonna look at some key inter-market
relationships okay when you're bullish dollar Index you're gonna be expecting
bearishness on gold bullishness on gold you're gonna be expecting Aussie
New Zealand to be bullish because of their nature as a
 112

15:25
gold exporter when oil is bullish you're gonna be bearish on U.S CAD uh
because of the Canadian export leadership and oil exports Dow when it's up
or bullish that's knee K index is bullish as well is it direct relationship to the
Dow Nikkei and when Nikkei index is down uh that's going to be bearish for
the US dollar versus Japanese Yen pair and generally when yields are down
or bearish that's going to be bearish for the currency because money seeks
yield and when gold is bearish that's usually
16:08
bullish for US dollar versus CAD and finally uh by having an understanding of
all these relationships as a whole conceptually they give you confirmation of
long-term analysis uh the relationships between all of them if you're seeing a
number of these things in alignment with your long-term analysis you're
probably on to the right path you know what you're looking at the right
direction in the marketplace rarely will you see a wide disparity with all these
things not aligning if you have a good sample size
16:44
of some of these things in alignment generally your long-term analysis is
probably going to be true to form it'll probably pan out in the long-term
Direction like you think it will the problem is timing long-term Trend trading or
long-term analysis and timing are just in my opinion some of the hardest
things to time because it's hard to get traders to focus on allowing a little bit
more movement against their underlying entry point what I mean by that is
because you're trading on higher time frame charts it's
17:20
probably because of your your home life your time constraints that keep you
from being able to trade with a lower time frame entry so you're forced many
times to trade off of a daily chart and if you're going to execute off of a daily
chart you're going to have to permit yourself a great deal of movement against
you in terms of a stop loss because your ranges are a lot larger and you have
to require a lot more time but even with that said if you're going to be using
these points of information and
17:53
relationships with inter-market analysis it's going to help you in any in all
facets of trading regardless of your day trading scalping short-term trading
swing trading you know or position trading and long-term scope it's beneficial
to know these things and it helps build probabilities in your favor and again
nothing in here equates to 100 a surety uh you know there's absolutely no
guarantee that nothing out there can't change on drop of a hat which you think
you see in the charts could always be wrong because there's
18:26
always a human element that's always involved here then the analyst is you
but I think if you were to spend some time going over the relationships that's
gone through this presentation if you spend that time look at it on a macro
level you'll see that there's a great deal of value in knowing these
relationships and because they are leading you to a long-term Trend following
 113

directional bias using higher time frame daily charts it will give you confidence
as a Trader to know that you're trading with the
19:00
underlying fundamentals and you don't really require all of that time and
energy and and diligence needed to go through fundamental data the
relationships between these markets as we outlined in this presentation will
take you to the same outcome that fundamental data will give you so just like
the relationships here will sometimes lag that same lagging effect that
happens in the fundamental data I knew this much about fundamental data
just because the fundamentals suggest something should be bullish doesn't
mean tomorrow it's going
19:33
to go straight up okay there's going to be time that has to be built in for that
market to start building in a bullish tenancy and then it'll start to move higher
but long-term macro Trends okay you can see when they're starting and
shifting and moving into place by using the information that we shared in this
presentation so again study it believe me when I tell you the information in this
is worth its weight in gold it's not something that is sexy it's not a lot of charts
where I can show you Judas swings and patterns and
20:03
all this and that but it's real information that has a direct relationship to how
the markets work as a whole how they tie together and it keeps you out of
having to look at fundamental data and if there's anything else that you know
you can't associate with in terms of value that's enough there's so many
things out there you would be wasting my opinion your time you're going
through all that data and when you could just simply see what price is telling
you because price in all these asset classes together as a whole will
20:31
reflect what the fundamentals are actually doing because trained accredited
staff at these big institutions Banks producers manufacturers and exporters
they're using that real fundamental data they have people that are trained
accredited and they're able to use the information to forecast Trends in sales
and and consumption all those types of things and they make their business
plans around those those data points I can't keep abreast of all that stuff
there's too many things that's going on
20:57
in my own personal life let alone you know to keep up with all the ever-
changing things in the marketplace so if I can look at the price of these asset
classes and the relationship between the all of all four of them in concert with
one another I will just like you will come to the conclusion of what the
geopolitical macro Trend and there I say it fundamental perspective is on the
market as a macro perspective Trader until next time wish good luck and
good Trading.
 114

How To Use Bullish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis

 115

macro analysis we're going to be teaching applying seasonal Tendencies to

hire time frame analysis this module is going to be teaching bullish seasonals
in higher time frame analysis okay you've probably seen this chart before I've
made uh available a few of these templates over the years but we're gonna be
teaching specifically only on the buy side for seasonal tendencies in this
teaching and we'll be using the Canadian dollar to begin with
00:50
and what this is is it's a 40-year seasonal tendency where the price on polish
years and bearish years have been compiled and compressed into a file
where the output gives us a tendency for what price usually does for each
contract delivery month I'm going to get into that in a minute before we get
into it deeper let's bring up some points here seasonal Tendencies are merely
a proverbial roadmap of past performance and they are not to be viewed as a
Panacea or be all end-all concept despite what you may see in this
01:25
teaching and the subsequent teaching in 4.2 please let me remind you that
simply because it's done something in the past doesn't that in any way
guarantee it's going to do the same thing in the future this is just one more
tool to add a Confluence of things that would already lead you to an
expectation that the market should go higher or lower okay folks this is the
Canadian dollar 40-year seasonal tendency this is the expanded view of the
same chart you just saw and I want you to take a look at something real quick
02:00
up here we have it says March abbreviation June abbreviation September's
abbreviation December and then back to March again what this is delineating
is the contract delivery months for the Canadian dollar now currencies they
deliver on March June September and December every single year these
months expire these charts that I'm sharing with you are a compilation of data
over all the delivery months price action for the last 40 plus years beginning in
1976 now this data is only compiled up to 2015 but I can tell you
02:42
that the output is hardly changed at all if you're concerned about it being 2017
is there any there is there any deviation no there's not any deviation at all so
how do we look at these things and what benefit does it give us well let me
ask you a question if you were to if you were to ask the average Trader that
just now getting into trading maybe it's not Forex maybe it's stocks or or
Commodities and you ask them hey look if I were to ask you today is the
markets manipulated to a degree where
03:17
well before Price ever starts to trade a specific time of year would it be
inclined to go higher or lower based on some underlying influence that
repeats itself and as a new Trader I could tell you I would have never
answered that question with yeah I could probably agree to that um I it felt like
a random thing to me and one of the things that I like about seasonal
Tendencies is it gave a characteristic to price that proved to me that there is a
rhyming reason behind everything that goes on if there's something that's
measured and
03:51
again this is 40 years worth of data okay 40 years worth of data in the blue
line the red line is a 15-year average so you can see between looking at 40
 116

years worth of data and 15 years worth of data there's very little discrepancy
in terms of what the overall strong seasonal Tendencies are for this particular
currency now since we're primarily dealing with bullish seasonal tendencies in
higher time frame analysis for this module we're going to not focus on bearish
patterns but we're going to be looking
04:22
for tendencies that lend well to being a buyer and if we're going to be doing
higher time frame analysis and we want to be buying on these higher time
frame charts and using it for ideas for being position Trader looking at this
seasonal tendency I'm going to ask you what time of year now time of year is
going to be delineate at the bottom of the chart down here you can see it's all
dated here's December November October this is all calendar month based
this is contract delivery months okay you can
04:53
see the vertical lines delineating when that contract March would end trading
here that would be the beginning of June's trading contract and then June
would end here and it would pick up at September's contract and so on going
through the season sanity chart if I were to ask you what would be your first
choice in deciding when would be a good time to buy well if you were paying
attention you can see that this is probably a really good time to be buying
around mid-march all the way up into the May June time
05:31
period so between March and June there typically is a strong tendency for the
Canadian dollar to Rally now some of you may think to yourself well that's
great you know if this is the contract month for Canadian dollar what does that
mean to me if I'm not really a Futures Trader well the main thing is is this is
the seasonal tendency that you would expect Canadian dollar Futures to Rally
now it does not mean that it's going to Rally every single year march to June
doesn't mean that it just means that there's a
06:04
strong probability that historically looking back over 40 years worth of data
and comparing it against 15 years worth of data there is a strong underlying
well there I say it element of Truth to the fact that there is a tendency for this
to Rally problem is if you're not a Futures Contract Trader this doesn't do
anything for you or does it if we are trading foreign exchange we have to
remember that the Canadian dollar is paired with the dollar Index now the
dollar Index is the first in in the pair's name so that means if we're
06:38
bearish one Canadian dollar the U.S CAD is going to go up if we're bullish on
Canadian dollar that means the U.S CAD pair is going to go down that means
Canadian Dollars are bullish while that would suppress the U.S dollar Index
so since the pair's name begins with U.S dollar opposite would be seen in
what we expect to see in the Futures Contract so what we have to do is focus
in on a seasonal tendency on the Futures Contract that shows us a bearish
tone in the marketplace so you can see we're here between
07:13
September and around Christmas time in December there typically is a strong
tendency for the Canadian dollar to decline on in the underlying Futures
Contract so we have to take this into account when we're looking at foreign
exchange because the U.S CAD pair is an inversion of what the Futures
 117

Contract shows for Canadian dollar Futures price so if there's a strong

tenancy for September October November and December to have a decline in
the Canadian dollar that should be a bullish scenario for U.
07:47
S CAD let's take this over to the charts and see if this in fact has any validity
to it okay we're focusing on the bullish seasonal Tendencies we have our U.S
CAD chart.

this is a weekly chart and I went back to 2008 just to give you a nice sample
size of data and I started the line at the beginning of September and I carried
it out in time to about midpoint of December you can see that shaded area all
the way to the left here this is when we'd expect to see the Canadian dollar to
be bearish on the Futures underlying contract price
08:33
but because we're foreign exchange Traders we have to be looking at it to be
reversed or inverted so that means it would be bullish for the U.S CAD pair
because this is how we're trading the major U.S against the cad so this is the
buying opportunity that would be presented and look at the look at the
performance here on us CAD as a relationship to the seasonal tendency look
how strong that buy was look how many Pips it moved notice also in here this
is the next time period very next year in 2009 this is a time when the season
10 should
09:07
should take place and that means the Canadian dollar should be bearish on
the underlying Futures Contract but that would be an inversion on U.S CAD
pairs that means we would expect bullishness in here now while we didn't
press up to make new higher highs there was a nice little pop nice little rally in
here but overall the direction was down so you can see how the season
tendency really wasn't much help in terms of seeing much like this higher
prices very next year same thing very weak it was lower now I'm going to ask
you a
09:37
question look at these last two years what was the underlying price Direction
on the weekly chart was it bullish or bearish bearish has been going lower so
would you be focusing on buying that time of year versus looking for
opportunity to be a seller there's a hint for the next tutorial 4.2 going to 2011
 118

we can see that the seasonal tendency had a really nice effect here after we
made a nice low and Market structures shifted to the bullish side and station
overflow is now bullish and during a time of year when the
10:12
underlying Futures Contract for Canadian prices should be going lower that's
bullish for U.S CAD so for a foreign exchange Trader we're looking for buys
we had to look for weakness in the online Futures Contract of the Canadian
dollar that would Propel price higher at a time of the year when we would
expect prices to come in same thing here the very next year 2012 we can see
price again rallied up during this time of the year and now we're still bullish
now look at the effects of the seasonal tenancy
10:42
again we have a low and it starts rallying up again again same time of year
September to almost Christmas seasonal tendency rallies again same time
period here rallies again and again 2016 just passed we have a nice rally up
here as well seasonal tendency come again once again strong now looking at
this again let me remind you what we're looking at is underlying weakness in
the Futures Contract so if it's underlying weakness in the Futures Contract for
a Canadian dollar the inversion puts it to a bullish stance
11:16
for U.S CAD so it's very important that's why I taught this one specifically
because I'm showing you how we have to take the seasonal tendency from
the Futures Contract for some of the majors that are appeared with a dollar
their currencies start with U.S CAD so it's going to be an inversion so what
you would expect to see in the Futures Contract has to be reversed in some
of the currencies that are paired out with the dollar so now by itself it doesn't
mean anything but a coupled with other things
11:45
like quarterly shifts remember that every three or four months there's going to
be a move on a hard time frame now we're adding another dimension to that
it's one thing they expect to move every three to four months but where is that
move going what what should we be focusing on should we be buying or
should we be selling seasonal Tendencies give us a road map to help build
the idea that okay there's certain quarters of the year that we want to be a
buyer and there's certain quarters of the year that we want to be
12:17
a seller and we anticipate this year in and year out the only difference is is
we're going to be looking for markets that already predisposed to go higher
and then coupling that with the bullishness of seasonal tendencies if we're
looking at the Canadian dollar we'd have to reverse it look for weakness in the
seasonal Tendencies on the underlying creatures contract and then apply it to
the U.
12:42
S cat as bullishness because it's an inversion of Futures Contract prices for
Canadian dollar if we see times when the Canadian dollar is bullish underlying
U.S CAD payer and this seasonal tenancy September to almost Christmas
every single year there's a strong tendency for it to be bullish between that
time period that means there's many weeks where you can be a bullish U.
13:10
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S CAD Trader if the underlying pair of us cat is bullish this is going back
several years and I only gave you this sample size because if I'll give you any
more data it'll ruin all the discoveries if you go back and study for yourself but
you can see here clearly many instances when the underlying Market moves
are in line with the macro trend seasonal Tendencies are absolutely a barn
burner for delivering what you should be doing for each quarter of the year in
this case you have a loaded deal if you're looking for a buying opportunity for
us CAD it's between
13:42
September and getting close to Christmas every single year when the
Market's predisposed to go higher what quarterly shift are you gonna be
looking for now looking for longs.

okay so now we're going to look at a market that's closely related to Canadian
dollar its number one export is crude oil and here we have another example
just as a supporting idea if he looked at this Market over here you would
expect to see bullish prices for a rally in the crude oil market and that rally
comes in around coming in
14:20
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about mid February going into March and carrying into May June time period
so we're expecting bullishness in the crude oil market and since Canadian
dollar generally moves almost in tandem with a little the strong tendency for
the Canadian dollar the rally and the crude oil Market to rally at this time of
year that means we have a march to June basically a bullish effect for
Canadian dollar and crude oil coupled together so that's a strong tendency but
again because we're looking at Canadian dollar in the Foreign Exchange
15:01
Market this would have to be reversed so we'll save that study for you in
addition to what's already been presented here but I want to show you the
Futures Contract price for crude oil between around March to June time
period okay here's the crude oil markets the weekly chart and I just went back
to January uh 14 2014.
15:30
and obviously you can see here's this is a bearish market here it's been in a
long-term downtrend when the collapse of the oil Market from around the 105
level but let's take a look at the bullishness of that seasonal tendency again
looking for that march to June time period okay so here's March all the way
through to June you can see the rally in the crude oil Market rate when it
made its high and the 2014 time period and the next year we'd be looking for
the same seasonal tendency between March
16:01
and June all the way up into the first of July we can see it again here rallies
once more even in a bear Market it's still there we don't force the trades but
I'm just showing you the seasonal tendency that's existing in the marketplace
that should convince you that there is an absolute program to everything that
goes on despite fly-in domain factors there are very routine things that take
place and they repeat themselves over and over again and again in 2016 we
have March 2 the 1st of July encompassing the whole month
16:33
of June you can see that rally again comes in for crude oil now my question to
you is this if you can see these opportunities repeating themselves based on
the data that I'm sharing with these reports and seasonal tendency charts is it
hard not to feel like they're treasure maps because that's exactly what it felt
like for me as a young man when I was in my 20s and I saw these seasonal
tendency charts and I admittedly pushed them aside for a first couple months
and then finally I got into the study of seasonal Tendencies
17:05
and I realized that quickly right away that there is something to them now
admittedly I've lost money traded them in the beginning I had no idea what I
was doing I just thought every time it would work so therefore I loaded up the
boat and traded way too many things and too many times got burned doing it
so put on the back burner until I realize there's this quarterly shift that takes
place in the marketplace and I'm matured now and I can look back and I can
pick out where the highest probability seasonal Tendencies are for
17:34
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certain times of the year certain markets have really strong seasonal
Tendencies to move a specific three to four month cycle every single year
when it's bullish and when it's bearish if we can focus in on those Quarters on
those particular currency pairs or those asset classes we have a loaded deal
in the form of odds it doesn't mean it's going to be profitable every time it
doesn't mean it's a guaranteed it's going to be accurate it just means that we
have a high odds probability that our
18:05
prognostication will lead us to a successful outcome this is just one example
of how correlated pairs between Canadian dollar and cruel both can lean well
with one another in terms of seasonal Tendencies and even in the bearish
market the crude oil Market's been in you can see that the nice big rallies
that's occurred happened to script with a seasonal tendency we're going to
teach more about this in module 4.
18:35
2 and I'm going to talk about the bearishness as well and in that module I'm
actually going to share all of the seasonal Tendencies I have for all the
currencies and until next time wish you good luck and good Trading.
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How To Use Bearish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis

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applying seasonal tendencies to higher time frame analysis okay we'll be

highlighting our topic of seasonals with a deeper focus on fair seasonals and
higher time frame analysis and our market of study for this teaching is going
to be the new zealand dollar or kiwi okay and when we looked at lesson 4.
00:52
1 we we looked at the canadian dollar and we noticed that while the seasonal
tendencies that i'm sharing here there's seasonal tendencies with the
utilization of the futures market so since it's the futures market that we're
using the seasonal tenancy it's important to understand that the seasonal
tenancy may if it's bullish for the seasonal tendency chart for a particular time
of year that may or may not be bullish for a particular pair like for instance in
4.
01:23
1 lesson we used that u.s cad pair and since the seasonal tendency is on the
canadian dollar we are looking at a time when the canadian dollar seasonal
tendency for the futures contract would be bullish in our seasonal tenancy but
would be bearish in the u.s cad pair because it would be inverted that would
be a little bit of a sticking point for someone that's just rushing through this
lesson but we're going to talk about a currency this time where it's going to
move basically in tandem with what you expect to see in the seasonal tenancy
02:00
chart we're looking at the kiwi or the new zealand dollar which is a com dial
commodity currency that means the currency is traded as a futures market
this teaching also is going to go a little bit deeper in the understanding of
seasonal tenants and how i employ them i've been able to call pretty
significant price swings in the marketplace using hard time frame charts and
many of them youtube have witnessed that happen some of you seen it in this
mentorship all of it comes by way of the things i'm teaching
02:30
in these two lessons here 4.1 4.2 the way we're going to approach the
seasonal tendencies in this teaching is going to be applying bear seasonals
but we're also going to segue into how this helps us get in sync with hopefully
a quarterly shift in the marketplace which is the goal of position trading or
long-term trading as i understand and teach it powerful moves that occur on
these higher time frame charts monthly weekly and daily they're in the
hundreds of pips for foreign exchange so it behooves you to look at this
03:09
marketplace when these higher time frame charts because regardless of what
type of trade you're going to be and if you can use seasonal tendencies like a
road map it's literally like knowing the most probable direction certain times of
the year for certain currencies or markets because it's not limited to just
foreign exchange or currencies it's limited to nothing really i mean everything
has a seasonal tendency but you have to study it and go through a long
process of you know compiling all that
03:39
data to get to the outcome what would highlight a seasonal tendency where it
rests most predominantly if you're looking at this chart here obviously you can
see that there are certain points in where price generally on the blue line and
on the red line okay and it's comparing a long period blue line of time and a
shorter period of data and when both of them move in tandem direction in
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other words they all are basically moving in the same direction up or down at
any given particular time that highlights a high probability
04:17
seasonal tendency now when it gets real muddy and it's choppy back and
forth then it makes it a little bit less likely there's a seasonal tendency there
but just quickly going over this chart here it should be obvious to you what
time of year there is a significant decline in price expected and when should
there be a significant increase in price for the kiwi dollar let's zoom in and take
a closer look and we'll break this down into real specifics okay we have that
same chart now just zoomed in and i want to highlight
04:54
a few things going into this these seasonal tendencies while we're trying to
aim at where the conditions lie that would set up a quarterly shift in other
words a move that may take two to three months to unfold we're using these
higher time frame charts with the attempt to hone in on an area where we can
capture several hundred pips in a long-term position trade or looking for the
ideas to get us in sync with the institutional mindset where the direction of the
market should go in these higher time frame charts
05:28
since it's the smart money entities that move price on these higher time frame
charts we know there's a high probability if there's a certain time of year or a
tendency for the market to rally or decline and it's shown itself over a large
sample size of data the blue line in the kiwi here represents 19 years worth of
data the red line represents 15 years worth of data and the only thing it's
doing is contrasting for 15 years worth of data versus 19 years worth of data
the seasonal tendencies pretty much are locked in
06:01
tandem you can see pretty much it's the same scenario all the time because
it's traded in march contracts june contracts september contracts and
december contracts they are the futures contract delivery months in other
words these are the months that you would be buying or selling if you're
gonna be trading as you can see the june contract has the strongest tendency
to rally and decline all in that same contract month beginning first trading day
and last trading day before the contract would expire
06:31
then december's contract has a very strong tendency to rally late in the year
and understanding that it's pretty obvious that if you're going to be trading the
kiwi you want to be focusing on the june contract and the december contract
that's the powerful nature of understanding these seasonal tendencies that
doesn't mean that the march contract won't see specific price action that sets
up moves that we see in the june and december contract or that we won't see
things in the september contract that
07:03
would lead into december's contract month unfolding as we see here in the
seasonal tenancy again they're not panaceas they're not be all end-alls but
they're road maps as to what price has done in the past historically year after
year by compiling the data we can see that these contract delivery months do
this type of thing over a large sample size of data will it happen every single
year absolutely not in fact i went back all the way to 2007 and we're going to
look at every single year from
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07:34
2007 to now and we're going to see what influence these seasonal tendencies
had and how it helped us or it would have helped us let's say it that way we
can go back in time and look at how hypothetically knowing this information
back then we could have used it to get in sync with a quarterly shift or it could
have been just a unique trade setup by itself since we're focusing primarily on
bearish conditions we're going to be looking for areas at which the market is
most likely to see a significant drop in price now we can go
08:05
back in time and look at the years like we're going to now and use it to build
our confidence in the fact that these seasonal tendencies do in fact hold up
over a long period of time now again we're looking at about nine years or so
worth of seasonal tendency price study in the new zealand dollar futures
contract now this is not to say that you're going to see the exact same type of
move dollar for dollar you know pip for pip in the foreign exchange market but
by far and large they're going to be moved
08:36
moving in the same direction generally so i have that as a a point of reference
when we go over this because i'm not trying to force a perfect pip to point ratio
of uh movement in both the futures and the foreign exchange market there's
going to be a slight dis difference between the two but by far and large you're
going to see that they generally move in the same direction so if we're going
to look at this with a sober mind and understand that yes there are
opportunities to be a seller in kiwi
09:07
there's high probability conditions certain times of the year where it it positions
itself for an opportunity to sell off with a great deal of tendency to do so
seasonally and historically but we're going to focus on how we can use these
bearish ideas to get us in sync with a long-term bullish quarterly shift now
you're probably saying wait a minute michael you're coloring outside the lines
we're supposed to be talking about bearish seasonal tendencies yes teaching
is really how to use bearish
09:38
seasonal tendencies not just myopically and only focus on just being a short
seller we got to be able to understand that that short selling opportunity may
be leading us to a quarterly move on these higher time frame charts so a
decline while could be traded we have to be mindful that there's certain times
of the year when the kiwi has a predisposed nature to go higher so let's take a
look at a few examples in here there's obviously this one i like is uh mid
february to mid march really significant uh time point where
10:11
you can see there's a really nice movement between the red and the blue line
that means the 19 year seasonal tendency in the 15 year seasonal tendency
and again i'm going to remind you that it's taking 19 years worth of price
action year after year what did these months deliver in terms of price and you
can see here the mid february to mid-march time period both the red and the
blue lines and again i'll remind you here that the 19-year is the blue and the
15-year is the red and what it is is a compiling of 19
10:48
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years worth of data showing the historical movement of the march delivery
contract and the june contract the september contract and the december
contract and by showing a historical record and compiling the data the overall
price direction generally is from mid february down to mid-march there's a
strong tendency for the kiwi dollar to decline and you can see it very clearly in
both the contrasting 19 years worth of data and 15 years worth of data so if it
was the shift in and out between the two then it's most likely probably not a
11:28
good time to be a buyer or seller but when they both move in the same
direction and it's a sizable price swing as we can see here in the shaded area
it's in my opinion that it's a pretty good chance that we'll see a decline there
the second one to be noteworthy of is that notice that if we drop down into
mid-march and in april the market tends to have a significant rally at that time
and it rallies up to about may and both the 19 and 15-year seasonal tendency
compilation shows that it does in fact make a high
12:03
in may and then it sells off again giving us another bare seasonal tendency
and then we have an area where we have consolidation between around the
june month going into july but it makes another seasonal low around june and
july and it balances bullishly and then it sells off again around mid august
down into october but look what happens in september and october it
generally makes a significant point of uh bullishness and puts the a large
degree of buying in your scope as far as a trader you look at buying the kiwi
around that
12:43
september october time period now when we use seasonal tendencies the the
way we want to use them are limited only to what the current market
conditions are we do not go into our charts forcing the seasonal tenancy for
instance we're not forcing the idea that kiwi has to make a high or top in may
therefore we're going to sell in may and just hold on to it forever and then wait
for it to be june july and just collect our money that's not what we're saying
here what i want you to focus on is that if
13:17
this seasonal tendency is in fact true and i believe it shows validity here the
idea is is there something technically in price that would support that seasonal
tendency are we in a bearish market did we rally up into a bearish order block
did we run an old high did we see a market structure break have we in fact
been moving up for the last two or three months and then are we likely to you
know sell off because of an uber ball premium market and then maybe we
would anticipate seeing some breakdown in the marketplace and then we
13:48
can take a short or position ourselves for a bearish move lower so it's a matter
of lining up what the current market conditions are it's not just take this thing
apply it to the marketplace and you're going to get rich it's taking these ideas
when there are strong tendencies for the market to move one side or the other
any particular time of the year as you as you can see across this chart there's
several other opportunities you can use you don't have to be a long-term
position trader which is what i'm
14:15
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focusing on here using the bearish moves okay that's seen in mid-february to
mid-march and then you have another move in may that takes you down into
june july so there's other opportunities you can use you can see that there's a
typical sell-off in the first week or so of january that goes down into february
there's another sell-off that takes place around mid-june down into the first or
second week of july both lines blue and red are in agreement with that and
then you see another sell-off that
14:48
takes place around mid-august down into the september-october time period
making in the low but there is a small short-term little move that drops off mid
september down into october that's the one that generally sets up a really
strong buying opportunity so we're going to be a quarterly shift trader if we are
going to trade these seasonal tendencies and we are short around that time
period just be mindful that around september october generally makes a very
strong tendency for the kiwi to rally but now let's go back and have a
15:19
contrasting view as well since we're focusing on various seasonal tendencies
and we're using them in a higher timeframe analysis we can take all of these
bearish ideas and trade them respectively or we can go in the marketplace
and say okay i'm going to anticipate these bare seasonal tendencies not trade
them i'm going to anticipate them showing me the the signs that the market is
in fact dropping down into the quarterly bullish scenarios that i could be a
buyer so we can use bearish seasonal tendencies to trade with or we
15:51
can use them as guides to lead us to the next trading opportunity that would
be a quarterly shift this teaching is going to show you both okay we're going to
go from 2007 all the way up to 2016. but if you're going to be a bullish trader
on kiwi and we're going to be looking for bullish quarterly shifts they occur in
march to april time period that's generally making a low okay make a note of
this because when we go through each year i want you to keep these
reference points in mind we are focusing on
16:21
sell-offs between mid-february to mid-march and we're focusing on sell-offs
around may going into june in july but primarily we're looking at how these
moves could set up bullish conditions for quarterly shifts and the first one
we're watching is it sets up a move between march and april for a quarterly
low the next one is june july low that you could expect a seasonal low to form
for that quarter to be a buyer and then the other one is september to october
giving us a strong tendency to be a buyer okay so now think about this for a
16:59
minute i just outlined the general road map on what kiwi dollar does on a 12
month cycle now if that didn't floor you you're not paying attention now you
probably didn't get it and you didn't you didn't register if you're a new trader it's
probably going right over your head but think about what we've just did we've
outlined the macro view on what kiwi dollar does generally over a course of 12
months there's seasonal tendencies that shift in and out of the marketplace
and depending on what the market
17:39
conditions are for that particular time or that year one seasonal tendency is
going to be favored over the other if we're in a bullish market obviously the
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march april june july and september october time periods are going to be
phenomenal buying opportunities if we're in a bearish market that means mid
february to mid march is going to be amazing sell-off and may is going to be
an amazing sell-off and you have august can create a nice sell-off as well
leading down to the fall lows there's also another long in here that i
18:13
don't have an arrow to highlight but it's that last week of november going into
the first week of december that's a nice little buying opportunity as well so in
your notes as we go through these slides okay you can obviously go after you
watch the video and go back and look at it as well but as we go through each
year just be mindful that march april june july september october are really
strong buying opportunities when it's bullish when it's non-bullish we can
focus primarily on being a seller look for
18:43
selling scenarios around the february to march time period and may into june
for sell-offs and in august into september giving us weak points to sell.
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let's go into our first year and start breaking this down give us some real
examples to see if it really does appear in the charts okay you can see here
this is 2007 and what i'm showing is december from the previous year 2006 all
the way up to the january first of the following year so we're getting the entire
year shown in every slide that we show this is
19:19
2007's price chart and here we have mid february into march that weakness
that we expect to see a bearish scenario okay and also notice also that we
have a small little decline here as well in may both seasonal tendencies while
in contrast to the larger moves so there's several hundred pips on these
declines here but now notice also these sell-offs that we expected
bearishness in the marketplace they set up what opportunities remember we
have that march april time period for bullish scenarios or expected bullish
scenarios for
19:58
tendencies to go higher june july and september october do you not see those
occurring here we have the march april time period creating the very low and
look at the move up from there at several hundred pips then we have the may
june decline but june starts off that rally that sends us all the way up to the 81
big figure huge move then we have another opportunity where the market dips
down and trades off into the september time period where we see that
september october seasonal tendency to rally so while we're focusing on the
bears
20:40
seasonal tendencies the other seasonal tendencies that we've went through is
beginning this teaching we were looking at the actual seasonal tendency chart
all of the seasonal tendencies are going to have some measure of influence
now again keeping in mind what the current market conditions are at that
particular year it's going to be helpful for you in that regards because again
we're not trying to form fit just a seasonal tendency in price we're looking for
clues to justify why that scenario would be
21:12
more inclined to unfold than the other in other words is it better to be a buyer
on the bullish seasonal tendency or better to be a seller on the bare seasonal
tenancy and years sometimes we'll work in concert with another where the
bearish move will lead into the bullish move the bullish move lead into the
bearish move that's perfect market symmetry and it rarely exists but
sometimes in my 23 plus years doing it i've seen it a few times where it's been
astonishing but as we go to our next year in kiwi
21:44
here's 2008 for the kiwi and obviously everybody remembers what happened
in 2008 the market uh imploded we had the financial meltdown and we have
mid-march i'm sorry mid-february to mid-march uh creating the actual high in
the kiwi and then we had the uh the may creating another high here where we
sold off as well and notice because we are all completely all bearish on all
foreign currencies the kiwi was no exception here just kept on following the
rest of the year so you have to also keep that in mind too
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22:19
there's going to be larger big picture macro events that are going to take
precedence over whatever short-term quarterly effect that you may be
expecting even if it's a seasonal tendency that holds up for a long period of
time you're going to have these wild card scenarios where you know just it
isn't going to pan out regardless of what you would expect there's 2009 and
we can see the sell-off between mid-february going into march uh that decline
in there was 600 pips and we see also during the may
22:57
period we did not get any decline at all on the bear side but in contrast
keeping in mind how we're using these bear seasonal tendencies the one that
dropped down in february into march leads us into the march april bullish
scenario and it was a very strong buying opportunity there and then we had
the month of june july we had a consolidation and july sent us higher going
into the late fall october highs september and october had just a continuation
2010 you can see here for the kiwi we had basically a flat market in mid
23:42
february to march nothing bullish nothing bearish but we had our may decline
and look how many pips this thing moved this thing moves about 700 pips as
a decline in the month of may but again that may decline set up the june july
bullish seasonal tendency that took off and sent price higher and we also see
there was a scenario for the bearish august to october time period august we
had a little decline which had a small seasonal tendency to be bearish if you
go back and look at the slide and all i did was retrace back down into
24:24
a bearish candle which is a bullet shorter block and uptrend and it rallied off
that 70 big figure moving all the way up to 79.50 sets 950 points or pips that it
moved off of just retracing into an area at which institutional overflow would
give us bullishness and then we had the september october time period give
us that last little leg price higher from that 74 100 to the 79.
24:56
50 level so 550 pips there as well using the seasonal tendencies as a
roadmap okay we can see 2011 here see we are declined mid february going
to mid march we had a nice decline there but that leads us to what the bullish
march april seasonal tenancy nails it look at the rally off of that huge
extrapolated move from that time period and then we have a small little
decline from our may time period where we expect bearishness and that's
about 350 pips just been made on a decline but finds us trading back down
into the january highs so old resistance turns support there
25:39
the market creates that retracement down in may just to set up another leg
higher june july gives us a nice seasonal low off of a previous down candle
which is a bullish order block around that 80 big figure and then it rallies all
the way up to 8 800 so 800 pips using the seasonal tendency where we saw a
decline in may and it rallied away and created a longer term price move very
significant price moves higher and in september october gave us a swing from
the 7500 to the 8200 so there's 700 pips there okay 2012.
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26:25
you see we had our decline mid february to mid-march several hundred pips
declined about uh 400 or so on the downside and then in may we had a very
significant sell-off and price moved almost 800 pips on the downside in the
month of may and that gives us that june low seasonally where we saw
bullishness expected and that thing took off from june lows from 7 500 all the
way up to 8 450.
27:01
so that's a massive move 2013 okay we see our decline here in mid-february
to mid-march several hundred pips as well and then a another decline in may
which leads us to our bullish june july low and it rallies away from that and in
2014 we don't get anything bearish at all between february march mark was in
consolidation and it rallied out of the consolidation so it's not expected to be a
bearish area there we're looking for continuation on the upside because it's
left area consolidation and in may we have a little bit of a
27:47
retracement that leads to a june rally creating the high up at the 88 big figure
then we had a sell-off in mid-august which was the other bearish opportunity
taking it down into october again look at your seasonal tendency about the
first or second week of august all the way down into october and you can see
that seasonal tendency takes uh effect in this market here okay on 2015 you
can see we had a little bit of a move down here in mid february to mid march
and again these are weekly charts so be mindful that we're not looking at
28:30
uh your five-minute charts here and then we have our decline in may
seasonally speaking and june july just kept on being weak which led us into
the next bullish scenario which is the quarterly shift that would be bullish that
occurs in september october and that gives us a really nice rally from the 60
to 50 level up to the 6850 level almost 69.
28:57
so very very handsome rally from that price point there and then finally for
2016 unchanged consolidation nothing happening in mid february to mid-
march we have our decline in may it comes down into previous bullish order
blocks and rallies away created another higher high up into 74.50 so it moved
from the may decline into the week before june rallying away from the 67 big
figure all the way up to almost 7 500 big figures so rather significant price
moves as a closing note i want you to think about how these ideas lead to
29:46
a roadmap idea of where price should go generally speaking and when to
focus in on very significant price moves when they when do they usually occur
see it's one thing to say okay i can see when an indicator bearishly diverges
and it should give us a sell signal or it should some you know suggest some
consolidation in a strong uptrend we can understand that but it doesn't really
tell us when the divergence should occur and seasonal tendencies tell us a
specific time element that escapes most people that don't use them most
traders
30:23
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don't even have any understanding these things exist now because you've
been exposed to them with a great deal more detail much more than we saw
when i was teaching in the free tutorial area we can see how we blend these
two ideas time and price with quarterly shifts and when the seasonal
tendencies come into the picture as well there's a strong tendency for the
market to react when a few things come into confluence if we have a seasonal
tendency to suggest bullish prices when the market's already predisposed to
30:57
go higher because it's in a bullish market and it's in a time of the day when the
market should be bullish and it's also at a time when the market is indicating
that interest rates are supporting that bullish idea it's also supported in the
dollar index when all these things come together they dovetail into a beautiful
tapestry where you're going to see a profitable outcome in your analysis now
as long as you stick to those types of trades you're going to do very very well
you don't need a whole lot of trades
31:32
throughout the year and notice that there's not a whole lot of overlapping
going on between what we've shown so far certain currency pairs have certain
seasonal tendencies now by far and large they're all going to bend the knee to
the dollar index and we're going to have a 4.3 teaching with seasonal
tendencies where i'm going to show you the seasonal tendency of the dollar
index and we'll actually apply that to other studies as well but for now i want
you to be encouraged right now i don't want you to
32:03
get so excited you feel like you won the lottery okay but these seasonal
tendencies are very very powerful and when you use them in the right context
they lead to an analysis perspective that again most aren't going to be able to
attain everyone looks at just price action alone but if you look at what price
has done historically and dare i say it hindsight it's a gold mine of information
because it leads to and understanding what should take place and it shows
that there's yes there is manipulation in the
32:34
marketplace but by far and large these markets move by a certain script and
they repeat themselves over and over and over again and if something comes
in the marketplace to upset what would be otherwise a bearish time of the
year but yet it posts something bullish for instance look what we're seeing
here mid february to mid march we're not seeing bearishness there we're
seeing consolidation and the market rallies away and it falls in may but it only
falls down to the mid consolidation point or around that 67 big figure
33:04
then it creates another rally higher if you remember all through 2016 i i was
telling everyone that the new zealand dollar was going higher it was strong
relatively spanking just like the aussie dollar was those two currencies were
the ones that held up the most during 2016 when all the other pairs variously
moved lower against the strength of the dollar also notice that we had that
sell-off as a short-term uh bearish idea in january it actually materializes here
as well so think about if you're a day trader if you're a
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33:40
short-term trader okay you can use those ideas to get you in sync with long-
term position trades on these higher time frame seasonal tendencies you're
gonna be able to blend all these things by the time you're done with this
mentorship you'll be able to go in and dissect any marks call any market you'll
be able to dissect any asset class and know right away if there's an
opportunity if there isn't an opportunity move to the sidelines and by having a
seasonal tendency in your toolbox it'll give you when you
34:10
should be looking for something that's really loaded in your favor to move
because seasonally and historically these times of the year in this particular
currency there are times when it makes significant price moves and if we can
focus on trading on those time frames and those setups alone we are really
basically framing high probability setups you're not going to get perfect
winners but you're going to have high probability conditions where even if you
use this as a directional bias tool it'll help you in all facets of your
34:40
trading no matter what discipline you use swing trade short term day trade or
scalp until next lesson i wish good luck and good trading you.
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IdealSeasonalTendencie
 136

seasonal Tendencies we're going to be highlighting ideal seasonal

Tendencies and higher time frame analysis this is going to be specifically
dealing with foreign exchange or FX payers okay before we begin uh just a
reminder that seasonal Tendencies are a tendency they're not a Panacea
they're not a be all in all they're not a absolution they're just road maps of
what has happened in the past with price action
00:54
so when we look at these charts the orientation is for instance for the Forex
pair all the dollar the chart on the left is the Australian dollar Futures price
 137

seasonal tendency and the chart on the right US dollar Index seasonal
tendency for the Futures price what I'm sharing with you the ideal seasonal
Tendencies what we're actually looking at is we're comparing the two
seasonal tendency charts we're looking for the most diametrically opposed
price action between the two so when we're focusing on high probability
01:24
or in my definition an ideal seasonal tendency is when the underlying Market
is predisposed to go in a direction that c Zone tenancy is being outlined in
here so it doesn't mean every single year the seasonal tendency May may not
come to fruition but that's okay it's a general rule of thumb there's plenty of
these seasonal Tendencies as we go through the major pairs so there's
something always every year that would set up a potential long-term trade you
see here on the Australian dollar the strongest seasonal tenancy in
01:55
contrast to that of the dollar Index on the right the Shaded in area here shows
the strongest tendency for Australian dollar Futures prices to Rally in March
and make a top sometime in May now if this is true we should see a sell-off in
the dollar Index and we do in fact see that same thing occurring between
March and a decline making a low in May so between the two we have a
qualified ideal scenario for the Australian US dollar pair in FX to Rally
because it's the first currency in the name of the pair Australian dollar
02:34
Aussie looks at the rally at time of year same time the dollar Index so the pair
Construction in ways design when we watch price of Aussie dollar when we
see price rallying on that chart we're actually seeing the rise of Australian
dollar futures or I'll show you in prices versus lower prices on the dollar Index
so in an ideal scenario this trade would be best suited to be found on a long-
term primary bullish Market or if we made a long-term low we could potentially
test this theory in terms of catching a long-term trade
03:13
okay our next pair we're going to look at is the New Zealand dollar or kiwi
coupled with the dollar Index on the left hand side that's the New Zealand
dollar Futures Contract seasonal tendency and again on the right hand side it
is the US dollar Index features seasonal tendency see here again just like we
saw in the Australian dollar we can see a rally that's typical for a March April
time period making a high in May for the New Zealand dollar Futures price
and again if this is true we're going to see a
03:45
contrasting sell-off at the same time of the year again we do see that May
April High and a low forming in May now these are only focusing on the
highest ideal long-term setup I'm not looking for every possible scenario for a
seasonal play but for long-term analysis we're focusing only on the most
obvious ones that jump off the chart and they have historical data to support it
and again because it's a tendency it doesn't mean it's going to happen every
single year so the best scenario would be when
04:16
you're in a bullish condition and you're seeing underlying bullishness for a
New Zealand dollar this seasonal tendency should have an effect on price
that time of year between March and April we should be seeing a seasonal
low and for a couple months you see a rally up into around May the next pair
 138

we're going to look at is the euro dollar or Fiber and we're going to be
focusing on the left-hand chart for the Euro Futures price and then we're going
to look at the chart on the right for the Futures price on the US dollar
04:50
Index as you see here we have a seasonal load it usually forms between June
and July and that should be seen with a high that forms in the dollar Index so
as a long-term High time frame scenario this is the ideal scenario you would
look for a load of form in the summer of euro dollar okay next one we're
looking at is the cable or British pound versus US dollar the chart on the left is
the British pound Futures price and seasonal tendency and the dollar Index is
on the right hand side seasonal tendency for the
05:28
Futures price as well for the British pound we have the strongest tendency to
make a low in March with a high forming in May and if this is true we would be
seeing a high form between March and April with a low forming in May and we
do see that here so this is the highest probable or ideal scenario for seasonal
Tendencies again not a Panacea or a BL Indo but it is a really good time to
expect a bullish scenario at least for a long-term trade if the underlying market
for the British pound is bullish so if you're studying the
06:06
Futures price of the British pound or if you're just watching the pound dollar
FX pair and on the higher time frame charts we're expecting to see higher
prices were in the long-term uptrend if we enter this time of year between
March and April we would be expecting some seasonal low to form and we
can see that actually is supported with Ace sell-off in the dollar seasonally as
well I want to contrast also the difference between these blue and red lines on
the chart on the left hand side that's the
06:37
British pounds Futures seasonal tendency the Blue Line represents 40 Years
of data and the red line represents 15 years of data so by contrasting that you
have a lot of time factored into these tendencies so it's to me in my opinion
this is a really strong one because it's many years worth of data and it's also
contrasting it with a smaller short-term view of the marketplace where in the
last 15 years it was there and in the last 40 years it was still there so between
March and April there's usually
07:13
a seasonal load of the forums and then it rallies up to making a spring high
around May and again it's really really uh positive and most likely expected to
see happen when you have the underlying British pound in a strong uptrend
or you've suspected a turn has taken place long term and we haven't started
trending up higher we can test this Theory by taking a trade and see if it does
in fact pay now foreign X pair is the dollar swissy okay or US dollar versus
Swiss franc dollar Index is on the left hand side it's a seasonal
07:53
tendency for the Futures price of the dollar Index and on the right hand side it
is the Futures chart seasonal tendency for the Swiss francaise so what we
have on the dollar Index we have a seasonal tendency for the dollar to make
a seasonal High in the June July time period so summer highs forming in
dollar Index and the contrasting low that forms in June July in the Swiss franc
so we have a strong tendency for that to make a major turning point in the
 139

summer months for this particular pair and again this would be an ideal
scenario where the
08:27
dollar is in a bearish market uh primary downtrend or if we are in a primary
option for the Swiss franc this will be a good scenario to trade this as well
okay the dollar versus Japanese Yen on the left hand side we have again the
seasonal tendency for the Futures price for the dollar Index and then on the
right we have the seasonal tenancy chart for the Futures price of the
Japanese Yen strongest tendency on the dollar is to see a high form and a
sell-off into May and the opposite is seen with a seasonal low forming in
March in April and we see
09:16
that that generally makes the long-term low for the Japanese Yen at that time
across the calendar year foreign if we're looking at seasonal Tendencies
again the way you could trade this is if you are in a downtrend for the dollar
Index this would be a really good one to sell dollar versus Japanese Yen or if
you are in a bullish uptrend for the Japanese Yen this is a good time to sell
short this currency pair because you'd be buying strength of the Japanese
Yen while selling dollars okay our next pair is the dollar CAD
10:04
or US dollar versus Canadian dollar on the left-hand side we have the dollar
Index Futures seasonal tendency and on the right we have Canadian dollar
Futures seasonal tendency and for the dollar we have a strong tendency to
create a high again in that March April time period McNiel low in May and we
see the opposite is seen with the Canadian dollar making a low in March April
and that high forming in May so the way you would use this seasonal
tendency is if you're bearish on the dollar Index this is a good time to be
10:34
selling short dollar CAD or if you're long-term bullish on Canadian dollar this is
a good time to sell this pair because you can see the weakness in the dollar
Index and the strength underlying with the Canadian dollar so I went kind of
like go back in summary with these seasonal tendencies just because we're
looking at one seasonal tendency for instance when we're looking to the
season seasonal Tendencies for the dollar Index uh when that occurs like for
instance between March and April time period we expect
11:04
the dollar Index to create some measure of a high long term seasonally it
doesn't mean it's going to happen but we're expecting it to occur by itself it
means that if we're primarily bearish on the dollar Index this is an ideal
scenario to be selling dollars now that may not be apparent in the dollar Index
but if we see a pair or a currency that is coupled with a dollar that has a strong
seasonal tendency to Rally in a specific time of the year like that March April
time period like we're seeing here with the Canadian
11:39
dollar that means we don't have to be in the uptrend for dollar Index we could
be in a long-term consolidation but save the save the Canadian dollars in a
bullish uptrend you're focusing in on that time of year where March April
creates a low in Canadian dollar and it rise up into May so with that seasonal
tendency underlying strength for the Canadian dollar that also would sell off
 140

the dollar versus CAD pair so it's a it's a blending of the ideas it's not simply
well it has to be the uh downtrend for
12:12
the dollar and it has to be uptrend for the Canadian dollar you only really need
one and by blending these two elements together and applying the seasonal
tendency you're really focusing in on when seasonally the highest probability
for a big move is to occur you narrow it down to a specific time of the year
certain calendar months and highest probability seasonal Tendencies so you
can go through your calendar ahead of time and write down certain months
where you want to be focusing on specific plays that may unfold in price
12:42
it's real easy to forget about these seasonal Tendencies when you get caught
up in the day trading and short-term trading and reading other stuff about ICT
material but you want to have this stuff in your in your calendar on your
trading desk there should always be things to watch this month things to
watch the coming month okay and these are the types of things you want to
have in your notes so when you're working at your desk and you have your
your your trade desk open you're looking for trades always start your trading
day
13:06
every single day with reviewing a macro perspective like this are we coming
on a time period where there's a high probability for a sustainable move and
it's seen by these types of seasonal tendencies very rarely do you have things
that would line up or give you clues that feature price should do certain things
or have a rhythm to it like seasonal Tendencies and when we study these
you're going to see that we're gonna go we're going to refer to these actually
uh multiple times throughout the disciplines of trading
13:38
we're going to use them again in swing trading and in short-term trading so
we're not done with them because we're doing High time frame analysis but
for higher time frame analysis these are scenarios you want to be focusing on
specifically for these respective pairs so until we talk again I wish you good
luck.
 141

Money Management

money management and higher time frame analysis okay we're going to be
just talking about a broad brush perspective on this view of trading in other
words long term analysis we're going to assume for a moment that uh
everyone that's learning the concepts from january is contemplating uh the
medium of long-term trading or position trading now that may not be your cup
of tea that may not be the disciplinary trading that you are going
01:02
to adopt as your career but i would advise you to at least work in this time
frame a little while at least try to work it at least for a year and the reason why
i say that is because some of you may not be contemplating managed funds
in other words managing other people's money or working for a firm maybe
working for a prop firm and while you may not have a large equity base to
start with um it's not important now but what is important is growing your
understanding over a long period of time and when that means getting
experience
01:40
in the marketplace there's no better experience than actually applying the
things that you practice in a demo account with positive results and then
segwaying into a live setting where you're using live funds it's not important
you have a big account because what you're focusing on is the control over
drawdown keeping it manageable keeping it tolerable with a tolerable level of
drawdown i think i'd say about uh 15 annually is a realistic objective um most
folks would uh would start to cringe over 25 or so um
02:16
 142

but if you can control your draw down to around 15 as a maximum that's
absolutely amazing uh but 20s it's probably okay and if you can still maintain a
positive outcome for the annual return but thinking about managed funds i
want you to think about the possibility that while you may be thinking about
only managing your own individual assets and moving your uh your wealth
forward independently apart from using anybody else's money for some of
you that may not be the case maybe you came into this mentorship with every
02:57
expectation of learning to do that very thing well it starts here you have to
have a realistic expectation coming in and knowing that you don't need a
whole lot of money if you can show a consistent equity curve that's improving
very little drawdown very very infrequent uh erratic or slow periods in your
trading uh that is very good for uh for investors when they see things like that
um and it doesn't have to be high rates of return but having a steady increase
of over a calendar year that really attracts investors uh
03:36
there's you have no idea how much money is sitting out there just waiting for
people to say hey look you know i'll take that money and control it for you and
turn a profit now you also don't need to use the entire equity base that you
start with um many times ten thousand dollar trading account and they
assume that they have to maximize every possible dollar in that account to
get a respectable rate of return and i don't teach that i actually have a very
conservative approach when i'm trading
04:11
my view is i don't want to allocate every possible dollar to the marketplace
what i do is i limit my allocation to only 30 of my total equity that may be
shocking to some of you but it's the truth so let's say for instance i have a
hundred thousand dollar trading account or let's say you have a hypothetical
one hundred thousand dollar trading account that means i'm gonna be using
thirty thousand dollars to meet whatever margin requirements or trade
parameters that i use for that trading in other words if i'm going to be doing
04:46
a percentage basis of my equity and let's just say for instance that i'm going to
be using this standard in the industry of 2 that means i'm gonna be using two
percent of thirty thousand not two percent of one hundred thousand and the
reason why that's done is because i'm never going to have to worry about
margin calls i'm never going to be over leveraged i'm never going to have uh
wild dips in my equity but i can still manage to carve out a very nice equity
curve even just using 30 of my equity
05:21
investors like to see that they like to see that you're not 100 exposed they like
to see that you know having a a good reserve of cash in the account that way
you always have opportunities that you can still take that if they're really too
good to pass on you have never extended yourself too much and spread
yourself too thin so that we always have an opportunity to take something that
may otherwise not have been on your radar screen something comes up in
the chart something comes up as a an opportunity you always have equity at
05:53
your disposal to take advantage of that that move so what you're doing again
is you're determining your maximum risk exposure and a percentage basis on
 143

30 percent of your equity so you're really really really drawn down in terms of
risk you're not maximizing the risk for maximum return you're looking for a
very low end risk exposure with the expectation that you're going to have
consistently pulling in percents of return that are respectable over a calendar
year again you're ideally set one percent
06:34
as the most risk per trade that means one percent of 30 percent of your total
equity base okay so you have 10 000 in your account and you're going to be
using 30 of your account that means your account trading is going to be
based on three thousand dollars not ten thousand dollars over leveraged not
looking for the maximum return you're looking at only using three thousand
dollars for your trading account to be meeting those margin requirements for
your trades one percent of that is going to be 30 so 30 is your total maximum
risk per
07:15
trade and i already know what some of you are thinking michael i can't get rich
doing this and that's right you're not going to get rich right now you're not
going to get rich tomorrow or next month but you're not thinking like that right
now i want you to consider and i'm not trying to force you into managed funds
but i'm trying to broaden your perspectives okay on a lot of things and allow
yourself the opportunity to even just think about the possibility and again i
personally know from experience it's not
07:44
fun to manage other people's money it's for me it's very stressful but for some
of you it may be exactly what you'll need to get over that hump and you can
make a lot of money managing other people's money rather quickly and then
you can take that money and seed your own investing and then you can do
your own speculation how you'd like to do it and if you want to take a little bit
more risk on not that you should but you can do that in that medium where
you get other people's money to pay you
08:11
fill your account up with funds not out of your own pocket you can
independently trade apart from other people's money and then you can close
shop on trading other people's money and just focus primarily on yourself let
me target three to one reward to risk or higher setups now again some of you
are again totally completely turned off to actually trading a lot higher time
frames but for some of you this is going to be perfectly designed for you it's
going to be your cup of tea if you will there's still three to one setups that
08:44
are offered on these higher time frames charts and that's what you're going to
be focusing on now having low risk high reward permits very very low
accuracy you don't have to be accurate all the time but you do have to be
patient on this time frame and the other benefit is low risk allows equity for
more setups so numbers you're going to see more possible trade setups by
not having all your money in one trade okay expectations again you want to
be focusing on a hands-on annual percent return now what
09:25
is this what's an annual return that's respectable um i think 18 to 25 a year
which is like an industry standard for managed funds if you could do that
every single year i can promise you you will never have a shortage of people
 144

that will want to hand you money and manage their money for them now as
we get deeper into this mentorship i'll actually tell you how you can well up
other people's money and reach out to other people through different
mediums and build business relationships with folks that would want
10:03
to do that type of thing again it's something that you'll have to make the
decision on your own but using higher time frame analysis like this i want you
to go forward from this point on and contemplate taking long-term trades once
we complete january's content i want you to think about operating at least for
the remainder of this mentorship for next eight months or so you want to be
uh you want to be focused on doing that very thing looking for hard time frame
trades and letting them pan out don't try to get in there and
10:35
take a little bit of the marketplace and move to the sidelines real quick and
remember when you're managing money with higher time frame trades there's
very little in terms of frequency with higher time frame setups so long-term
setups form very infrequently annually so there's not a whole lot of trades
throughout the year on a hard time frame charts when you're trading this
higher time frame you're going to have to learn to allow short term drawdowns
in profits that means that while you're in these long-term
11:08
trades and they pan out because many times you're going to see that there's
going to be retracements that you're going to have to weather you're going to
sit through several days maybe a week or two where the market has actually
given back some of your open profits okay they're not realized profits until you
close the trade so by allowing that mindset early on saying that okay i know
that there's going to be some give and take in these trades sometimes over a
period of time when you start
11:36
trading larger this give and take can be rather large it could be you know
emotionally charging if you've seen tens of thousands of dollars coming in and
out of your account over the course of several weeks if you're not used to that
actually makes uh it makes it hard for you to think about being objective about
the trade so the reason why i also talk about only using 30 of your equity
getting back to that i know some of you probably snickered and said there's
no way i'd be doing that but by having your account only
12:04
allocating 30 towards long-term trades that gives you equity and margin to
trade short-term trades so that way while we cannot in the u.s trade like a
hedger in other words we can't hedge our trades we can trade markets that
are closely correlated or inversely correlated dollar yen if your short position
long term starts to have and you can anticipate these types of things when it
starts to have a retracement against your short position you're going to give
back some of that open profit or paper profit before you
12:53
realize it and close it and move that profit into your account that give and take
on your p l is going to be bothersome for some of you most of you in fact so
the way you can counteract that is if you're going to be a long-term trader or
position trader if you're short on dollar yen if there's an opportunity for seeing
a bounce in your short position on dollar yen you can actually go in and trade
 145

the euro dollar it's an inverse related pair and you would do the opposite
whatever you're seeing uh retraced in
13:30
the dollar yen you would trade the opposite in euro dollar so if you're getting
retracement higher on a short position on dollar yen you can actually go short
euro dollar or maybe british pound dollar and capitalize some more money in
the marketplace while your long-term position is in somewhat of a drawdown
and you're giving back some profits you can actually hedge that by trading
other pairs that are inversely related so that's one way you can beat the north
american hedging rule but you just have to understand simple
14:06
inter-market analysis which we just covered in previous lesson so having an
understanding that they're going to be a give and take you're going to have to
have that in the forefront of your mind saying okay either i'm going to trade
shorter term swing trades or short term trades to allow myself to compensate
for the drawdown in open profits on my long-term trades and then when that
retracement takes shape and comes to completion when your long-term trade
then it starts to resume you're back in there and you've made
14:42
more money once you get back to that old equity high in your long term
position so you're able to continuously make more money and also cover
those draw down periods on open profits on your long term trades now stop-
loss orders are not a measure of ability now obviously you know most of us in
this mentorship are predominantly male and males have a tendency to like to
pull out the measuring stick and see how they measure up against the next
guy or how they measure up against you stop loss orders for whatever reason
has
15:16
over the ages okay of a technical analysis it's become a way of knowing how
good you are and if you can trade with a 10-pip stop-loss you must be elite
that doesn't belong in any way shape or form in long-term trading long-term
trading it's not it's you don't limit your your trade idea or opportunity based on
a set number of pips like intraday trading i like to have about 35 maximum
that's about a safe safe number for me 30 pips is a general rule of thumb but
about 35 pips is about the number one go-to number for me
15:53
because generally if it's 100 pip daily range average adr not that everyone is
or that it maintains 100 average but a third of that would be 33 so i rounded to
35 pips and that gives me a a real good round number to go for but you can
use what i've always said before about 30 pips but on long term trades uh 30
pips just isn't going to do it sometimes especially if you're only trading off up
and keying off of the daily time frame so if your daily chart is your executable
time frame which is what
16:26
you'd be using if you're trading with a monthly and weekly chart and you can't
use intraday charting because of your business or your your home life doesn't
permit you to be up or in front of the charts or you just have a job i mean let's
just face it some of you in here they have jobs and there's nothing wrong with
that i came from a world where i had to go to work too but you have to
 146

understand that your stops are going to have to be proportionate to the time
frame you're trading in
16:51
which leads us to the next point here now you know when you're trading a
trade that has a setup that requires a 200 pip stop loss on it that means you're
risking 200 pips for some of you that's mind-boggling there's no way that
you're gonna permit yourself to risk 200 pips of price movement against you
because you're so used to and ingrained in looking at those lower time frames
but just because it's a 200 pip stop loss on a setup on a daily time frame
assume for a moment that you're aiming
17:17
for a 600 pip win that's still a three to one reward to risk ratio there's nothing
wrong with that you're still gearing the same way you would you know to be in
line with a very low objective in terms of win rate you can still do very well with
that gearing and obviously that's the minimum so you want to be looking for
higher levels of reward to risk ratios on these higher time frame charts okay
and then another thing you want to think about when you're managing your
money trading with these higher time
17:49
frames is resist the impulse to move your stop loss to break even or even
reducing the risk on a lot higher time frame long-term position trading you're
going to have to suppress that desire to reduce risk right away position trading
requires a great deal of patience and unfortunately there's no way of forming
that for most of you you either have it or you grind it out and you develop it
over a long period of time it just doesn't happen overnight so if you don't have
a whole lot of time to develop patients
18:22
position trading is probably not going to be for you okay and that's one of
those things you're just gonna have to live with um if you need to be in front of
the markets a little bit more and you're trading these lower time frames then
obviously we can move our stop loss sooner to break even and lock in profit
on these lower time frames higher time frame just forget that all together
because you want to be waiting for the market to really be moving a
significant measure of pips before you even consider moving
18:50
that stop loss from the initial point at which you enter the trade you're gonna
have to learn to exit at logical targets and look to re-enter at a later time we
can take positions off at logical areas of resistance when we're in a long-term
trend and instead of sitting through a measure of draw down on our p l what
we would be doing is actually exiting the position or maybe some of the
position and we'll talk about this when we go into trade management we're
actually going to specifics this teaching here is just to
19:24
get your mind thinking about some of the things that's going to plague you as
a long-term position trader but you know if you're looking at a long-term trade
and you're bullish on for instance the dollar yen and you get to a level where
you would reasonably in with high probability expect some resistance or some
retracement um you may take some of your position off you may take half
your position off you may take three quarters your position off a third of your
position off you know uh you know one quarter of your uh
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19:50
position off and allow that to you know be in your account as a profit and then
once it retraces back to a level where it would be logically timed to see
another uh move higher in your long-term trade then you can add back that
position or maybe a little bit more than what you profited when you can't when
you took off a quarter maybe you'll put back on a third maybe you'll put back
on um a little bit more than a quarter okay or you'll just put back that original
quarter you you took off for some partial profits and then you
20:24
can add it back and you can get a larger position built on and see that next
lake price higher where you would make more money than you would have if
you just would have kept the original gearing and entry point at the point of
entry and finally long term is not get rich quick but get rich steady so before
you go into the next series of teachings and where we actually go into a little
more detail about what it is you're actually doing with long-term position
trading just know that you are not going to see velocity
21:06
for your money trading these higher time frames it just isn't there now velocity
is how fast you put your money at work and it makes a profit for you and you
get it right back right away that's velocity that's why i like day trading because
i can compound my money very quickly some of you cannot do that and don't
feel that you can't be profitable because you can't do that disciplinary trading
so therefore you can't be profitable that's not true you can make very very
handsome returns
21:32
on just long-term position trading but it has to fit your psyche it has to fit your
in inner trader that person inside you that makes who you are as a trader it
has to fit that that criteria of that inner person because if it's at odds with your
thinking process you can't no matter how you slice it it's going to be at odds
with you you're not going to be able to sit through the trades you're going to
force things because you're impatiently waiting for something to come to
fruition and it's just going to be a problem so
22:05
the money management aspect will become harder for you if you can't get
yourself in alignment but every one of you in the mentorship should be trying
to apply long-term position trading to some degree for the remaining portion of
this mentorship and you'll see how you don't really need a whole lot of skill in
terms of entry technique okay the entry technique you're actually going to
learn is rather simplistic and some of you will practice probably start using it a
lot more frequent than i do if i was long-term position trading
22:37
but for long-term position trading this you know it's the style of entry that i use
and when we get into all the entry techniques and concepts you'll learn it there
but before we get into trade entry and stop loss orders and you know how
much money should i risk and all that business you have to have some broad
brush ideas about money management and that was the core point of this
teaching because i want you to have the mindset going into it with yes you're
managing money no it's not going to be a whole lot of trades it's
23:11
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not going to allow you to parlay that account quickly and it's a pretty common
sense but some of you are so new and you're naive to the fact that these time
frames require a great deal time and by having that submission to time it will
allow you to number one improve your overall analysis because what you see
on these higher time frames that's what directs the lower time frame to move
as they do but your objective if you're going to be a managed fund trader and
you're going to be trading other people's money
23:49
opm as they call it other people's money that uh that career is very lucrative
especially if you are consistent with your rate of return and if you can
consistently pull 20 or 25 every single year and you're only doing a handful of
trades now think about this we've already mentioned that there's very little
trades going on on this higher time frame so if you have every three months
there's a there's a potential trade that could theoretically form every three
months it doesn't work like that though folks
24:20
i would i look personally for two and if i'm lucky three good position trade
setups a year so that means over the course of january to the end of
december you're probably going to see two very s very simple easy to find
long-term trade setups maybe if you're lucky and you're really dialed in and
the market's really working well and it's very symmetrical you may see a third
set up for the year generally rarely have i seen four setups in in a full january
december where i've actually been able to participate in it
24:55
so unless you get you know to the degree where you know you're able to see
it better than i and it's the goal here also you want to be better than ict and
also the market profile for that calendar year is just so conducive for a four
move set up where you have every three months or so you have a quarterly
shift that would be you know that that'd be great for you but just know going in
the expectation should be it's not going to most likely be there for you okay so
we're focusing primarily on two really good setups a year and
25:30
really milking those positions and if we're lucky we'll get a third okay and
you're probably doing the math on this and thinking okay well if i just did three
to one and i'm risking one percent the best i can make is three percent on
each one okay grant yes i agree and if you get two that means you're only
making six percent right that's correct but you're also only risking one percent
per trade so that means if you have a setup that's moved into profitability now
you have new equity
26:01
so that equity can be put to work as well so on new trade setups and just
because you missed the lowest possible buy for a long term long position
doesn't mean you can't get into the position in that long-term trend with a
long-term mindset and still make more percent return and we'll talk about that
when we get into execution and trade management so don't think you're just
going to make well i could only make about um if there's only two a year and
the best i can make is three percent return that
26:33
means i'm going to make six percent for the year that's not attractive michael
that's only if you're taking one setup now if you take two trades and your
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maximum exposure is going to be at two percent and you change the rules
here then obviously that gives you a little bit more leeway but it's not it's not
meant for you to go in trying to maximize how much you can earn what your
goal is is how much can you manage in terms of drawdown keeping it low and
still carve out a rate of return over the full calendar year
27:09
that's the goal that's the homework for the rest of this mentorship you want to
have at least one long-term trade where you were able to execute on and hold
it through a long period of time at least three months so if you can do that
you'll have what it is what i personally believe that it takes to take put it to
work where you can turn a profit over a whole calendar year now if you're
going to manage other people's money okay and you become better at your
trading you understand what you're doing
27:38
and you're risking two percent of thirty percent of the total equity if you make
two percent your total maximum risk per trade and you have several
opportunities throughout the year where you can take the position then you
should short term trade or swing trade any drawdown periods you can
maximize that you can very easily get to that 18 to 20 rated return on equity
for the year you're not going to be doing a whole lot of trades you won't be
forced to be in front of the marketplace every single trading day
28:17
you're actually going to be very free with your personal time that's the reason
why large fund managers are always on vacation they're always doing that
because they're not trading every single day the idea is that you want to put
other people's money at work for you but under the guys that you're doing it
they're you're doing them a favor rather but really what you're doing is you're
trying to do as very little as possible because you the more times you take a
trade with other people's money
28:45
the more times you're exposing them to risk when you expose a client to risk
enough times eventually that risk will grow teeth and bite you now you're
going to feel it emotionally and psychologically and monetarily the client is
going to feel it monetarily and they're going to be mad they're going to be
upset especially if that drawdown continues for a long period of time it eats
and erodes into what their equity base was when they allowed it to you so if
you can keep your frequency low and focus on very
29:17
high odds potential setups and keep the risk light and carve out that rate of
return 18 to 20 percent per year people will dog pile on you throwing new
money at you and as you have a management fee all the percentage bonuses
that you would establish and set up when you make your prospectus and you
sit down with clients all those things are in your favor the client would be
making money too obviously as a result but you're not working yourself too
hard to get that that money for them and therefore because it's going to be a
29:53
large degree of money hopefully a pooled account where you're having other
people pull money into it not just you and one client you want to work with a
fund level that has a ability to bring other people's money in and when you do
that it builds that equity base a lot larger so that way if you're making a 25 rate
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of return on say 10 million dollars now we're talking of something about a little
bit more significant and then if you have a two percent management fee on
top of that you're getting two percent management
30:22
fee regardless of what you make and then you get a performance bonus that
you would set up all that goes into your pocket so yes in your mind you're
probably thinking i want to push it to the limit and get a better performance
incentive you know in terms of paying myself but that's not what your goal
should be you should be having a steady eddy approach only aiming for that
easy low hanging fruit the clients will absolutely love you they're going to talk
about their their their fund manager you every time
30:50
they go out they're all going to be asking you know who is he can you can you
talk to him for me and new funds will always find their way to you so your
account that you manage would continuously be growing allowing new funds
to you come in and that just by default keeps pushing your pay every single
time this happens your pay goes up so it's not about how much money you
have right now it's how you can manage money right now and going forward
and the goal is not to see a lot of drawdown drawdown happens by way of a
lot of action
31:26
because no matter what it's a numbers game you can be good all day long
okay but you if you play the game enough you get up the bat enough times
you're going to strike out when you deal with other people's money and you're
managing that money you do not want to have a big long drawn out strikeout
period you don't want that they want to see consistency and if you're
consistently infrequent with risk exposure but you're showing rate of return
that's handsome over the calendar year they
31:55
will love you and love in the form of managed funds is money lots of money it
comes by way of new funds they put more money into your hands because
they've seen that you've proven yourself a lot of folks will test you out and i'll
put a small amount of money okay i'll see what you do with this and if you
show consistency and a rate of return it's very sobering and it's not over the
top you're not trying to swing for fences managing this money okay will invite
and by default other money to come in by either the
32:27
client you already have or clients that you have and by their word of mouth
because they will invariably talk about what you're doing for them new money
is very talkative it dislikes the chatter so when it talks to other potential clients
they by default will reach out to you and you will see your your fund
management business grow and that just puts more money in your pocket
and again nothing changes just because there's more money coming in and
you're managing you don't want to change the idea of what you do about your
32:58
trading you're not trying to impress anyone you've already made the
impression that this is the rate of return you're aiming for there's no guarantee
you're going to get it but are they going to be mad if you made 16 no way
they're not going to complain about that if they made 16 on their money and
they had very little period of drawdown where they didn't have any real
 151

exposure to risk but they had 16 rate of return 16 return on 10 million dollars
is respectable you can't find that rate of return
33:29
anywhere in the marketplace right now they don't get it in cds they don't get it
in equities they're not getting it in you know money markets or anything like
that so what they're doing is they're allowing you to work for them by
managing that money well in their eyes you're working really hard and when
you're managing money you don't want to be working hard you want to be
working smart and smart means you're not doing a whole lot of work to make
that money you only want to put it at risk
33:56
when it's very favorable and you'll see when we get into the execution stage
and the management stage of long-term trading you'll see this it takes very
little to do very well on these higher time frames.

Defining HTF PD Arrays

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defining high time frame pd arrays okay when we look at a chart regardless
of what time frame we're looking at it uh there's two elements that come to
mind as a trader obviously we think in terms of support or resistance or we
think in terms of audit we're sold we think in terms of price patterns uh
secondary but generally we think of a price being valued too low or too cheap
or expensive or too high and the algorithm has similar thought processes built
into
00:59
it and we look at it in the form of a premium and a discount market for the
sake of discussion just think of this red line at the top as a resistance and a
blue level in the bottom being support as price starts to move away from a
level that would be viewed as too cheap or support naturally our expectations
as traders we expect to see price move higher when it does this we're
confirmed to see a response moving up to a resistance point of some kind
now the problem is with retail trading and with technical analysis as a whole
01:36
by itself it doesn't help you because every one of us could come to the
conclusion that a specific level above current price action would be a
resistance level some of us will see it as a an old load they would be trading
to some of us would see an old high some of us would see something else
that would equate to a resistance level now to remove all the ambiguity you
have to have a mindset going into it and this teaching is to teach you the
hierarchy on the tools that i use for framing the trades now these same arrays
are the same
02:12
things that we've talked about since the beginning of the mentorship but we're
going to prevent you from having them in a disorganized fashion in other
words there's an iraqi in how they are used and how you look for them in price
as price makes a retracement lower from a support level how far does it
usually retrace back all of us again based on different walks of technical
analysis and different disciplines we'll all have a different conclusion some of
us would use a fibonacci some of us would use some
02:42
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fashion of support and resistance some of us would use elliott weave and
ratios and harmonic patterns all kinds of things would come by way of
discussion if we were in a round table meeting we're all sitting in the same
room together we all have different opinions about how far it would retrace
some of us wouldn't have even expected a retracement okay some of us
would not see this as a retracement but a beginning of an all-out reversal to
trade below the old low that's the problem every trader is plagued with when
they come into this
03:14
business who's right who has the the means of knowing with great deal of
prognostication what is a support level and what is the resistance level and
therefore what will propel price away from the current market action higher or
lower because the common adage is if i knew where price was going next i
wouldn't need to know anything else i would make money that's not true
because you would find some other way to lose money over leveraging or or
you doing something different you shouldn't be doing and you'll break a rule
and
03:45
you'll get the emotional psychological impact because of that and you'll end
up blowing the account so when we look at charts we want to be viewing price
in the terms of are we in a premium or are we in a discount market earlier in
the mentorship i taught how you could do that but we're going to talk a little bit
more in terms of how to frame that on higher time frame charts in the form of
an hierarchy with the arrays as price starts to retrace and then moves higher it
hits a level of resistance now for the sake of
04:20
discussion we're going to say we collectively understand what would deem a
resistance level to remove all the uh secondary discussions that we could
have if we were a front in front of one another in the same setting in a you
know live setting where we could literally shake hands and talk all of us would
have an opinion about what would constitute a resistance level but we're
going to say that this level that's noted as red that is the commonly agreed
upon resistance level the reasonable expectation would be to
04:52
see price move away when price does that some of us would expect one
more try to get to that level maybe to go through it or to fail that's how i trade
that's how i expect to see price react some of us would not even expect that
they would expect this one time punch up there and then all together all you
know reversal this is the type of setup i like to see here another pass towards
that old high either it's going to give me a run through or a false break or it's
going to give me a failure swing
05:22
we talked about classifying institutional price swings that's what we've done
for that teaching here i want you to start thinking in terms of premium and
discount on higher time frame charts because the hierarchy on how you view
this is going to help you whether you're a day trader scalper position trader
short-term trader which expectation of lower prices how far would we expect
to see price go down well the first impulse leg and then retracement then as a
second leg higher hitting that resistance level
05:55
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that secondary impulse leg that's probably going to be a good reasonable

expectation for support level now it could be a bullish order block it could be a
an old short-term high in there on a lower time frame if this was a monthly
chart at that low there may be a daily short-term high that would create a a
support level that can't be seen on a monthly chart so when we're looking at
these higher time frame charts just understand that there's going to be levels
that exist inside of larger price swings
06:27
that you may not see unless you go down to the lower time frame now when i
say lower time frame i'm only referring to the daily because the higher time
frame analysis is all we're focusing on here nothing below a daily chart so if
we're assuming that this is a monthly chart and we're looking at price the
expectation is okay well at that low we would expect to see some lower time
frame support level again it could be the monthly bullish order block it could
be a weekly bullish order block or it could
06:57
be a daily short term high you may not be able to see it inside that that little
low there but nonetheless when we look at price swings back and forth on a
chart whether it be monthly we clear daily and even lower time frames you
have to understand that there's swings that exist and support levels and
resistance levels that exist in the lower time frames that may not be so
apparent using these higher time frame charts that is not what you base the
majority of your trades on what you're going to be doing
07:29
is you're gonna be using the monthly chart and the weekly chart to frame the
context of what that market should be doing using these pda arrays so if we
watch price and it continues to trade higher here where would you reasonably
expect to see price trade to that short term little swing low at the failure swing
that's going to be what a potential mitigation block that means any orders that
were used to go long but failed to make another pass at that old high they're
underwater now so they're going
08:03
to look to mitigate those losses and cover their long positions and go short
potentially or just get out of the trade but smart money just doesn't cut losses
they know what they're doing they scale in scaling out and they hedge so this
would be another selling opportunity the market seeks liquidity below the low
and below the second impulse swing prior to the run into resistance so it
seeks liquidity below the marketplace once it takes that liquidity out it can
drive all the way down to that old support level
08:37
but generally it doesn't it will retrace again and pick up more orders back at an
old low where we'd see another opportunity to sell off and take out the liquidity
below a short term load that was just created and back down to a logical area
of support the expectation would be what the sea price bounce price does this
when price starts to retrace again some of us if we were all in the same room
we would expect to see that price low to be violated and a new low created
sometimes that will happen sometimes it won't
09:10
this failure swing in here could be used to set up another long opportunity
where price rallies and here's the million dollar question the understanding is
 155

how price moves from one level to the next but predominantly it's moving from
a level of discount to a level of premium from a level of premium to a level
discount between the red line and the blue line they are extremes in the
middle that's classified as equilibrium or balance buying imbalance is seen
when price gets above equilibrium or up into that red level
09:49
which would be resistance selling imbalance would be when price gets below
equilibrium and down into the blue line or what would be just derived as
discount so where would you expect to see price go next that's what you're
always faced with when you sit down in front of the charts this discussion
we're going to use the common ict tools as far as setup parameters in the
form of the way they form on charts in other words the order in which they
form and how to use them based on wherever you're at in terms of the
10:25
Marketplace.
 156

we're using this teaching as a foundation that's going to lead us into a better
understanding of this example we've shown we're discussing money
management for the january content so lesson five that example for the dollar
yen pair for a long term position trade this idea will be used as an example on
framing pd arrays on higher time frame charts but before we get into that
teaching for 6.
11:00
 157

2 we have to do the foundation to understand what we look for and why we

expect it to unfold like we would okay again using our thought process of
premium which would be the red line and discount which would be the blue
line when you look at charts you want to see where price has moved away
from an old high and it's dropping down from an area of premium in other
words it's two it's too high so the valuation is going to be reduced and dropped
lower so repricing takes place and the market goes down and
11:36
the price goes lower as a result of it until it gets to a point where it's too much
of a discount then there has to be a premium built into it the algorithm will do
this moving price back and forth back and forth back and forth until again
something of significant impact comes in the marketplace and drives the
market one-sided and it creates a strong imbalance otherwise the market's
just going to generate back and forth looking for liquidity based on premium
and discount conditions we'll assume for a moment right now the
12:07
market price is here okay and we can clearly see that the market in recent
times had a clear discernible level of resistance and a clear discernible level
of support now that can come in the form of bullish and bearish order blocks
or it could be just old highs and old lows and we'll just use old highs and lows
as an example for this discussion your expectation is is right now price is at a
level where it should by all standards move lower because it's at a classic
viewed resistance level we don't know how long that time is going
12:40
to be required before the market does in fact submit to our expectation and
see a lower price so that time frame okay that part is what you're always
gonna have to submit to time is a murderer it's a killer for for traders unless
you know that some of these ideas are gonna pan out for a long long time
you're gonna do a lot of things psychologically and emotionally that you wish
you wouldn't have done because you haven't submitted the time aspect of
trading there's two two elements in trading you have to
13:10
submit to time and price when they both agree with one another and you have
waited for that agreement to come to fruition that's where profitability and
opportunities are so we're looking at price and we have no idea how long time
is going to be required of us to wait before the displacement takes place but
eventually our expectation is we'll see lower prices down to a level of discount
and that's what we're expecting or forecasting as a future price in between
these two pre reference points again
13:43
time and price is what's essential you have to submit to the level of time which
no one knows how much time is going to be required before your setup pans
out or goes to profitability price is what you're studying you're submitting to
time throughout the process but while you are in the trade or expecting this to
unfold studying it you're submitting to the price you know what you're not
trying to force your will in price you're analyzing price to see what it is that's
telling you in
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14:12
terms of institutional order flow is it justifying your expectation that it wants to
go down to that discount level or some bullish order block to buy back off of
and cover a short position or could be a old low that it wants to run below that
future price could be a number of things but for now we're just going to aim for
an old low between the market price today and the future price which you
anticipate or forecast lower in the future there's going to be zero opportunity
for it to be a straight line in other words you're not seeing
14:42
that diagonal line in the way the market trades it just doesn't do that there's
always some give and take that takes place so understanding where certain
arrays occur in that process will help you number one stay with the trade idea
not be shaken out of it and have the confidence to hold until the objective is
met or your stop gets taken and it's simply moving to a next opportunity the
opposite scene when you're looking for a bullish scenario everything's just
reversed you expect market price to be in the
15:18
future at a premium in other words it's going to be higher than it is today again
you have no idea how long time is going to be required to get to your future
price or forecasted price and you have to submit to that a measure of time
that is unknown you can't know for certainty how many days or how many
hours or or how many months it will be before that price is actually arrived at
or if at all but you also have to be studying price and again monitoring and
studying the the pd arrays that occur in price action
15:48
that leads to supporting your expectation on institutional order flow that would
drive price up into that premium level the understanding is that price will move
from a discount to a premium because the discount can't stay discount very
long price is going to be established by whoever is selling it who who stands
to make a profit off of it well the central bank is going to be in in the business
of adjusting price so if we know that they are in control of price ultimately by
way of steering sentiment in economies through the delivery of an
16:23
interest rate long term to stimulate or to suppress an economy for our country
we have to view the market in terms of technicals to align ourselves with
these ideas so if we see a level of support our expectation is okay where is
the evidence that this thing will go to a premium market where is the premium
market where's the resistance at where's the higher level that i would want to
see it trade to between the market price you're at right now in that future price
again it never happens in a straight line there's time
16:55
that you have no understanding of exactly how long it's going to be but there's
also an element of price that you have to study in other words just because
you think it's going there doesn't mean it's going there it could go halfway
there and fail and go lower nonetheless what we're going to do is we're going
to outline now the arrays and keep them in a specific order so that way you
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know wherever you're at in terms of market price what you would expect to
see or what you're looking for
17:20
okay you know you know what should i be looking for an order block or should
i be looking for a gap you know what should i look for right now that's what
this teaching's going to do okay for a monthly chart okay what you're going to
do is you're going to look at the current trading range that it's in okay and so
we're going to assume that you uh outline the marketplace in terms of old
highs and all lows on the monthly and that's the easiest way of doing it there's
other ways you can do it but for
17:48
now we're just going to outline in the context that the most recent trading
range that the market has moved from an old high to an old low that would be
our premium and discount definition in between these two reference points
the halfway point this is always going to be referred to as equilibrium now
equilibrium between where you think price will go because it's been there
before and where it's at right now relative to an old high and old low that's the
current trading range and i'll give you an example what that looks
18:22
like when we go into lesson 6.2 but for now i want to lay the foundations for
what it is you look for the first thing above equilibrium in the form of an array is
an old high and old low you want to be looking for that above equilibrium the
next thing that you'll be looking for and this is in the order of importance okay
hold high or low then the next thing you'll be looking for is a rejection block a
rejection block will be just above the candle's body not the wicks so the actual
high and low is the wick
18:58
but then the next area of importance is the rejection block that would be just
above the candle's body then the bearish order block a fair value gap liquidity
void bearish breaker and the mitigation block put another way if we were at
equilibrium and we were moving away from a premium level or resistance in
other words prices already dropped down and we anticipate price going lower
down to a level of support or monthly discount we would be looking for above
current market action again assuming that we're at equilibrium right now we
19:44
would start looking above current market action in the past on the left side of
our chart where is the nearest mitigation block there may not be one okay
check that off where's the nearest bearish breaker there may not be one of
those either okay check that off but if there is one then you would reasonably
expect to see price trade up to that price point to breaker then expect some
selling to go lower and once it moves below equilibrium then you would be all
set to go to the monthly discount or support but let's assume for
20:12
a moment the mitigation block isn't there and the breaker isn't there what
would you look for next okay well the next order of hierarchy is liquidity void is
there a range that needs to be closed in again that may not be so clear check
that off no problem the next thing is their fair value gap again that might not
 160

exist either go to the next thing bearish order block that's probably going to be
there chances are it's very strong that's going to be there so what did this give
you i gave you the air archie and which
20:43
you look for a mitigation block is going to be first considered before you get to
the bearish order block because the various order blocks will be really high up
in the premium mitigation block is going to be the lowest mitigation and
breakers are basically mitigation blocks but generally mitigation blocks can
occur lower than breakers small little bounces and bear markets would be a
mitigation block basically a bearish breaker will keep your ability to get to a
bearish order block which will be resting higher up in the premium
21:16
when an old high is taken out that down candle right before the second high is
made taking an old high or turtle soup in other words that down candle if it's
retreated too that's going to be a bearish breaker that's going to keep you
from seeing most likely high probability that it won't allow you to get to a
bearish order block so whenever you see bearish breakers just don't expect
the bearish order block to be hit okay because it's going to most likely keep
price lower because that's going to be
21:47
the most dominant array of all these in here there is a liquidity void that would
be viewed if there's no breaker you can close in that range and that may take
you often to a fair value gap or a bearish order block but breakers by
themselves even though they're low end on this list it's the first thing you're
going to encounter because if you're at equilibrium and price has already
been moving away from the resistance level you're looking up now for any
potential areas to resell at first when you look at is the mitigation
22:19
block or bearish breaker and if there's neither of those you look for liquidity
void to trade up into the close in that range warfare value gap to close in it
may not be any of that then you would expect to see the bear shorter block to
be traded to then that would be your selling opportunity because you're at a
premium and you go to a logical area where institutional overflow would kick
in new orders would capitalize and then selling would ensue if there isn't an
obvious bearish order block okay um and there's very little
22:47
times that's like that but we will talk about that when we get into entry
techniques and concepts but if there is a lack of bearish order block
understanding and what you're looking at currently in the market action
because there may be a lot of wicks something like that may occur again you
would look for a rejection block which would be just above the body of the
candles you would expect that to be ran out and then you'd be really high on
the premium there and ultimately a whole whole entire run on the old high
23:17
that would be uh an expectation now i have here old high and old low why
would the low be there well if you're on a very low end of a downtrend on a
higher time frame monthly chart you may be rallying up to a old low if it gets to
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that old low even though it's an old low in in terms of price it's really high up in
the premium if it's been rallying a considerable amount of time and price to get
to that level so retreating to an old low that's resistance classic understanding
but it may need to run out of old high
23:52
as well so basically all you're doing is you're you're scaling the grade of how
much importance you're going to have on each one of these so again in
summary i want you to understand what i'm talking about here we're not just
listing the things we've talked about in in previous teachings okay i'm putting
them in an order of significance when you're at equilibrium or if you're moving
up from discount okay your expectations are to look for very first thing you
look for in the list as price
24:21
is going up the first thing you're looking to see to encounter is there any
mitigation block that i got to consider because that's the first objective it could
be a selling point then it's a bearish breaker that could set the tone for another
leg lower or stop any rallies on a bullish idea then the next idea if you're
bullish from a discount or if you're expecting a new selling opportunity say
you're at the equilibrium price point anything below the premium the
expectation is when you're looking
24:52
up in price for areas where price may go up to it's in this order from the lowest
up in other words from mitigation block all the way up to old high or low that's
the order you would expect to see them now the order of importance you
know it's the highest of the premium array is the old high and old low that's
that's as high as you can get then you have rejection block then you have
bearish order block fair fair value gap and liquidity void bearish breaker and
mitigation block you're going to be looking up and the
25:26
first thing you're going to encounter is the first thing on the bottom of this list
and then you start working your way up that list the farther you go up in this
list the more deeper you go into a premium market certain arrays in here will
keep you from seeing the next higher array in other words the next
institutional order reference point that's listed in here if you get to a breaker
chances are you're probably not going to go higher than that you won't
generally get up in to close that void
25:54
if there's a breaker below a liquidity void the liquidity void may stay open
basically that range may stay open so they kind of like it's in the order of
importance as a trader when you're below premium and looking higher up for
prices or expecting prices to move higher that mitigation block you know that's
the lowest or the most likely one you're going to expect to run into first it
doesn't mean that there's one in price action but you start from that
expectation first and you look for
26:21
it it's not there okay what's the next thing you've been looking for the bearish
breaker if it's not there okay then i'm okay to expect that void to close in there
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but there may not be a void it may have been a really systematic and efficient
way that it traded lower and that won't be any void there so next thing is is
there a gap that would draw price up into it if there's no gap then you go right
to the order block okay but the main thing is if there's a breaker forget about
closing in the void
26:47
and forget about getting up to that gap because the breaker is going to take
precedence over everything on this list when you're below it in terms of
market price if we were anticipating move lower into price into a discount or
into a support level we would expect the very next pd array to be a mitigation
block now again that may not appear in price if there is no mitigation block
you would expect to see the next pd array in the form of a bullish breaker
again this may not occur or be seen in price action but this is the order in
27:22
which you would expect to see as prices going lower looking in the past to the
left side of your chart you'll be focusing on whether or not these arrays appear
in price action their importance is again is listed from equilibrium the expected
order of how they're going to be in the price action in the form of a discount
the first one you would anticipate seeing is a mitigation block bullishly then a
bullish breaker then a liquidity void now if there is a bullish breaker now again
a bullish breaker is a up candle between two swing lows and the
27:59
most recent swing low would be lower normally you're seeing a stop run in the
past and the high the swing height it forms between the two lows that up
candle is going to be your bullish breaker so when price comes down to that
bullish of candle it'll find some support if you see that in price action chances
are that if there's a liquidity void in price it won't go down to fill that in it can if it
overtakes the breaker but if it has a breaker anticipate price not going below
the breaker and leaving the void intact
28:36
again assuming there is no breaker and there is no void but there is a gap and
it may be a liquidity void any gap sometimes that can occur too but you would
anticipate price reaching down into a fair value gap which is just a common
little gap where price has only been delivered on one side of the marketplace
and then the next array would be the bullish order block and again without the
breaker you would expect the void to be filled a gap to be filled straight down
into the bullish order block then below the order
29:05
block would be a rejection block which is just below the most lowest candle
and its body in other words if it has wicks long wicks below it uh we're only
gonna be looking for a move just below the bodies of the candle and that
would be rejection block and then ultimately the deepest form of discount
would be in the form of an old low or trading down to in the historic high and
like we said when we were talking about the premium market when prices
trade up to an old high it can also trade up to a very old
29:34
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long-term low and that would both be in the form of a resistance level when
we look at markets like this what it does is it gives us a framework you see
here the monthly premium arrays these are going to be focused for primarily
bearish premium array trading in other words you're going to be using these
areas at which to frame a trade or look for bullish targets at these levels for
monthly discount your bullish discount arrays these are your bullish discount
arrays and you would be looking for these for bearish targets or looking to get
long
30:21
at any one of these based on the current conditions in the market now the
same thing is seen also for the weekly chart the weekly chart you're going to
be looking at the same thing from equilibrium up the first thing you would
expect to see when you're expecting higher prices are we going to run into a
mitigation block bearish breaker if there's a bearish breaker you're probably
not going to go higher than that but if there is no breaker you look for a void to
close in or if your value gap if there is no fair value gap or avoid
30:51
price could just simply trade right up into the bearish order block and if there is
an idea that suggests that there's possibly not a strong bearish order block
there we would look for a rejection block which is a movement above the
candles bodies if there's long wicks that top that market and then ultimately a
run above the old high or return to a historical low the same things we just
outlined for the monthly is seen for the weekly both premium and discount the
same hierarchy and how you would expect to see these
31:18
arrays occur in price action this is the way they are seen and obviously the
same thing is said for a daily chart nothing's changed the same hierarchy
exists if we're at equilibrium and that's the current market action price and
we're expecting lower prices the first thing we want to look for in the left side
of our chart is there any mitigation blocks or a bullish breaker if there is
anything less than that breaker probably won't be considered or retreated to
the breaker has precedence over
31:48
everything both bullish breaker and bearish breakers so we're going to take a
look at an example of all this information with our dollar yen example that we
mentioned briefly in lesson number five money management was higher time
from analysis using these ideas in 6.2 that lesson will actually give a real
practical example.
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Trade Conditions & Setup Progressions

dealing with trade conditions and set up progression okay we're going to be
outlining the 1200 pip move we mentioned in the money management lesson
number five and obviously it's just a brief recap as a refresher just in case you
came back to this lesson solo without going into 6.
00:55
1 when we're looking at a premium market and markets are trading near a
premium and we have reasons to suspect that at lower future prices in order
we don't know how much time it's going to be needed to get to that lower
future price but we're looking for a displacement in price and vice versa in this
example we'll be focusing on a buying opportunity when a market went to a
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deep discount on a monthly weekly and daily time frame and how we would
use that insight to get to a higher Premium Future price
01:35
and briefly just as a click overview again since this teaching's going to be
specifically dealing with the discount opportunity buying at a discount and
aiming for a premium objectives are focuses down here where mitigation
blocks bullish Breakers liquidity voids fair value gaps bullish order blocks
rejection blocks and old lows or old Highs are our focal point for entries on
Long positions the idea is we're looking for something down in this list of
arrays to Target one of the premium arrays now obviously the first one we'll
be
02:21
reaching for is a mitigation block that would be a first objective then if there's a
breaker of any kind we would aim for that and we'd have to weigh out whether
or not there's a significant force that would drive it through a breaker and we'll
talk about that should we come to it in our example and then obviously looking
for any range to be filled in for a liquidity void and aiming for fair value gaps in
the premium range of the market and then we look at Value gaps bearish
order blocks and then looking for a rejection block
02:53
and or old high and old historic low so we're looking for bullish PD arrays to
buy into with the expectation of selling it at one of the monthly premium arrays
if we were looking at a bearish example which is what we're not going to be
doing here but just for the sake of completeness we would be looking to sell
short at a bearish PD array aiming to cover that short position with one of the
bullish PD arrays mitigation block bullish breaker liquidity void fair value Gap
bullish order block rejection block and or old low or
03:37
historic High so selling at a premium and buying back at a discount before we
get into our actual example I want to give you some uh study points so we
keep it in mind when you are looking at price it's important to keep this as one
of the focal points when you're studying when markets are at a premium or at
a discount they're always going to initially look to rebalance that means the
equilibrium price point between the last recent range so even if it doesn't go
all the way up to a deep premium or
04:14
down to a deep discount you can always reasonably expect it to go back to
equilibrium and if that's all you aim for if you if you buy it a real deep discount
and just get back to equilibrium you'll find a lot of Trades like that if you're a
big premium in the marketplace you're at historic highs or a annual high or
three month High you got a real good chance of seeing the market sell off
back to some equilibrium price point of the most recent trading range when
markets are in premium again and if you're in equilibrium
04:45
you're gonna be focusing on the market potentially moving up into one of
these monthly PD arrays that possibly may be a shorting opportunity when the
market's at equilibrium can anticipate a market move down into a monthly
discount aiming for one of the PD arrays as an objective so basically at
equilibrium you can look for either expansion on the outside or downside now
 166

you're going to be Consulting the market structure on the monthly chart to

determine what side of the marketplace you're going to be looking
05:22
for so it's not indiscriminately going in there rolling the dice and seeing well I'm
going to sell it short because it's at the middle of the range or I'm going to buy
it at the middle range we have to look at some of the uh the criteria around
that price action at the time you know weekly ranges just as a complete
approach or overview all of the same PD arrays for premium and discount are
the same and the same is said for the daily chart.
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we're gonna move through the charts now and look at the
05:51
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Japanese Yen cash price okay we're looking at the daily of a cash price for
Japanese Yen this is seen at barchart.com and historically uh last year in
2016 we made a high in August and the market showed willingness to want to
start breaking down Market structure at this low here this low became broken
at this moment here so Market structure on a long term basis on a daily chart
had been broken bearishly and we see this Trump election rally up into
bearish order block and then it sells off so we're gonna be
06:33
looking at this move in here okay and we're going to go over to the Forex
chart now just so you understand clearly because a lot of you may be knew
and maybe you're used to trading the Futures Market or following the
Japanese Yen cash price but when we pair it with a currency like the dollar
Index the dollar Index is the front currency and then the Japanese ends the
second so that means if we're bearish or expecting lower prices on Japanese
Yen cash prices the dollar Yen pair is actually going to
07:07
be inverted it's going to go up because if Japanese Yen cash price is dropping
that means dollar prices are rallying and if the dollar is the first in the name of
the pair dollar Yen that means when you're watching dollar Yen price action
you're watching the advancement of dollar versus decline of the Japanese
Yen okay here's a monthly chart of the dollar yen okay you can see how
we've seen the market have a really nice rally up in here this is going to be
again diametrically opposed to what we
07:39
expected or just saw rather on the cash price on the Japanese Yen now as a
reminder for some of you um we talked about the Japanese yen in the
beginning months of our mentorship and I gave you some study points and
gave some examples about this move higher and some of the levels that we
saw a trade to the 118 for instance was one that was mentioned so if we look
at what has happened and what's transpired we're gonna map out this this
monthly chart and we're gonna get some some levels on here we have a high
back
08:19
here okay and I want you to take a look at these equal lows okay the equal
lows in here we're going to be expecting what to be there cell stops so while
the market was dropping last year we would be expecting it to trade down into
these levels now what's this over here these two Down Candles that is a
bullish order block when you blend both of the bodies together because it's
two consecutive Down Candles okay and that gives you your equilibrium price
point in here okay we'll take that off and round it to
08:58
the full 99 level so we have a range here we have a high end or premium and
a low end or discount what makes this a discount level the fact that we saw a
price move away from it here now this could be a discount level as well we
want to go back to where the move originated here we saw a big move away
here that left the Gap open so we saw the the dollar Yen leave the Gap open
here where price is only delivered on the upside there was no down
movement to counteract that up move that was seen here okay came down
09:30
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closing that little range in here okay so price comes down hits the full big
figure 99 okay so we have a defined range up here this is premium on the
monthly level this is discount on the monthly level so on this level down here
we would look to see a move below these wicks in here the bodies of these
candles we saw it right in here this candle comes in at November 2016 it went
below the bodies of the candles in here that is going to be a rejection block it
cleared out the bodies of the candle on a monthly chart rejected
10:10
sent it higher okay we have a range up here we also have this down candle
which is a breaker why is this a breaker because we have an old high here old
highs anyone that gets short they're going to put a buy stopper is resting right
above that the market rallies above clears out those buy stops here and then
trades down through it once this down candle is violated rate here it becomes
a valid breaker if it trades down below it comes back to it here we have it
middle of the body of the candle extend out in time
10:48
it would give you a level of watch this is actually a weekly level we're going to
see very clearly when we drop down into weekly range but we also have
notice we have a gap in here which I'm not going to add all this on this chart to
make it way too busy but we have a gap in here price has only been delivered
on the downside between this candle's low and this candle's high it's been
delivered down here as a gap so that would be one reasonable objective to
look for when price was rallying but what makes the buy down here we're
11:15
going to discount on a monthly let's change it over to a weekly okay here's the
same dollar Yen just in a weekly format okay you can see here we have an up
candle right before the down move okay that's a bearish order block so we're
mapping that opening out over to here okay and the reason why I'm using the
open on this candle not the wick is because there's an absence of a gap the
reason why is because we have a wick here and the market traded down
through here so this is two times this little area has been traded to and
11:45
it was blocked in with this candle's high so this whole little area in here
wouldn't be viewed as a gap or fair value Gap it's it's been closed in because
the the very bearish water block itself had a movement lower initially so it's
been passed through twice there price comes up and closes it right to the
opening so they also have a we have a gap in here fair value Gap here
between this candle's low and this candle is high that would be an objective to
reach for also but I want you to look at the weekly chart we're
12:16
deep in a discount on the Range and the price shares of willingness to want to
rally and comes back down into the down candle right before that move this is
a bullish order block you could be a buyer here but we're focusing on that
November loan that's this move right here it's trading right back into and
recapitalizing an old weekly bullish order block let's see what's done it's hit
that right there perfectly and rally away now on a weekly time frame this
bearish order block which is the last up candle
12:48
right before the down move this is what you could have on your charts as well
this is how you map out the conditions okay so that would be a reasonable
 170

objective once the price comes down hits it this by here it shows it hit that but
then we had this set up here so which is this is later on you don't really see
this as an objective once it's already been hit this wouldn't be no resistance
whatsoever so you can take that level move it over to here that would be a
reasonable objective on the upside closing in that range but now
13:29
look at the bodies here see that equal Body candles above that we would
expect to see a rejection block price reaches through that as well another
rejection block candidate here equal Body candles we can expect to see that
as an upside objective as price continues to trade higher here and then we
have that fair value Gap up in here where prices only delivered on the
downside that would be an objective over here you can see that I'm not going
to move this line all around and then finally all the way up here to the bearish
order block
14:04
which is the last stop camera before the down move so we have a discount to
Premium using the monthly and weekly charts but now let's go down into a
daily time frame after I add one more little thing to this we also have this last
down candle right before this buy occurred so right in here we're going to map
that out with a different color so that way we can see the hierarchy between
the weekly and the daily let's use a different color that a little bit darker maybe
a little a little too dark for some of your
14:51
personal tastes but we're just going to deal with that won't we I'm going to go
over to a daily chart okay and you can see here the darker area is a weekly
bullish order block this is the lower weekly order block and this is the higher
weekly order block price comes down it hits that and actually touches both it
gives you the return back to lower weekly order block that's bullish so it trades
two times into a higher order block on the weekly chart and the lower of the
two bullish order blocks
15:21
and price rallies away and through right here on this November bye same
thing we start seeing here on the daily we see an old high here we see an old
high here we have equal highs in here we have relatively equal highs here as
well we have a fair value Gap in here this high and this low which is what that
would have been on the weekly chart by the way and then we have the last up
candle right in here that low comes in at 118.
15:57
55 so 118.55 so you can see how prices reached up into premium level over
here now important thing is is if we don't see any retracement to come back
into for a daily bullish order block or or if we saw for instance um let's say it
like this let's zoom in we have this down candle right here okay price rallies
away from it every time you look in an uptrend you want to focus on the Down
Candles because that's where institutions are going to buy either they're
buying at the time of the Down Candles creation which is usually always
16:35
the case and then if it comes back to that same down candle at a later time
they will they will buy more at that time we have three consecutive Down
Candles in here right in here okay the order block really begins at this candle's
opening not this last one you can use that one but if you want to be ultra Ultra
 171

tight on your stops but you're really going to be using the opening on this
candle because it's the highest open of the three consecutive candles so
that's this candle right here open comes in at 113.28
17:16
and this candle it's open was 113.26 so it's only two Pips below it and you see
look at the the movement off of that level one two three times you're gonna
bought and caught that last piece now that's not a long-term position trade
mind you but it is what you'd be focusing on to see more upside pressure on
this move once you have already been in it every down candle here okay
price trades through here and it comes back down to a hit rate there in that
moment right there adding the spread you could probably get another
17:50
position on there but more more likely this is one as well uh you have a down
candle price trades through it come back down into this candle what is the
high on that candle High concept 1 11 39 the low on this candle comes in at 1
11 36 so that's definitely an opportunity for you to get in and get new Longs on
so having these levels from the monthly and the weekly on it gives you
context to what to reach for on a lower time frame daily when you're executing
long-term trades but more importantly not that I could show it
18:27
here but if we would have lost say for instance this candle here in order to
trade it down below it we could look for another return to this order block here
as the high end not down this V but we could expect for it to trade back down
here and give another Buy and what I mean by that any bullish order block or
any supportive role from a PD array on a daily chart if it is bullish but it fails to
give you a Buy Signal or a support price the next level you drop back to is a
weekly PD array so you're going to be looking for something
19:02
bullish to support price on the weekly chart if the weekly chart PD array has
no support and it breaks then you'd get back to the monthly support so
because you're trading off a long-term perspectives and higher time frame
charts the retracements can go through what you see on the daily the daily
isn't going to support a monthly retracement it just isn't going to do it
sometimes this is going to give way it's going to break through it's going to pull
all the way back to what you would
19:30
otherwise not see unless you're looking at a monthly chart so by having the
monthly PD arrays on your on your charts and looking for them also on the
weekly chart and having those levels on both monthly and weekly on your
daily now it's not going to be on your executable time frame chart okay it's not
going to be there but you should always have in your platform the asset that
your or the market you're Trading you should have these monthly weekly
levels on regardless even if you're a day trader because it's going to
20:01
surprise you how many times it has great impact or significant impact even in
day trading or short-term Trading swing trading you're gonna definitely need it
but position trading it's absolutely crucial you definitely need it here because
it's going to frame what trades you're taking and it's going to provide you
support structure in the form of support of resistance or natural support for
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price to find new buying and or new resistance to find new selling at the
takeaway from this is if you're following the market on a
20:38
daily chart just because there's a bullish order block or a void that gets closed
in or fills in a gap and that supposedly is bullish doesn't mean that it's going to
keep price up from that point price could come back on the daily chart and
retrace rather deeply see this is a one-sided Market delivery here the Market's
been priced in on one side they completely keep running it higher higher up to
a logical level which was that Weekly bearish order block the market moved
from a discount all the
21:11
way up to a long-term premium notice on the daily chart understanding order
block Theory you could see that as a viable upside objective but for those that
simply look at the higher time frame weekly for levels to key off of this is a
logical area because it's very clear and distinct it's last up candle right for the
down sharp move so this is going to be your bearish order block the opening
on that candle comes in at 1 1861.
21:44
the high it comes in on this candle at 118.66. that's Precision I mean that's
really really tight for a weekly chart it's hard to deny Precision in that case
there because this is simply it's irrefutable so when we look at Price every one
of these new uh these ranges in here they're all tradable so even if you don't
have the wherewithal to hold all the way through to get to the Deep premium
Market you can get a premium here on this range this is a premium from this
high down to the low these highs in here down to that low is
22:25
a premium but as you go through and deeper this is where the last last
opportunity for the highest premium and unloading along from that down here
in these discount area so moving from higher time frame charts to the Daily
monthly and weekly levels moving them on to your daily chart that's obvious
it's just transposing hard time frame support resistance ideas okay but we're
using the PD arrays in terms of understanding institutional order flow but the
main takeaway is if we lose a level that's arrived at only
23:01
on a daily chart you could drop back into the levels that's seen on a weekly
chart and I'm going to show you what that looks like now if you look at just a
horizontal line all right we have this old high back here equal highs when you
use that and let's see what that looks like on the daily we have another one
here right there and we have another one right there and all this consolidation
is down the move here the candle making a swing low in here we're going to
look at that as some early scaling in
23:50
long they were buying here they're buying in here they're buying in here
they're buying in here they're buying in here they're buying in here it bought in
here and then boom you see that big move long-term hedging that's what
you're seeing in here every time it's a down candle and then it's a subsequent
up move you know that they bought and that's the footprint they moved the
market by doing that and every time they do that it allows new scaling in for
them and their positions are large and they can't get
24:19
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them all in one time so if we go out to the Daily again you can see there's that
order block right here and here's that order block here that level trading right
down here now it's not going to be right to the point okay or right to the PIP if
you will but you can see how these levels draw your attention to where a
future order block on a daily time frame may occur so it gives you an
opportunity kind of like to anticipate when the next down candle should occur
in terms of price not time but around the time of this price
24:52
hitting this you want to be focusing on when there's air down close on a daily
chart because that's going to be new buying opportunities especially if you
have a higher time frame premium level that's still unmet so hopefully this is
giving you some insights about how you can use the PD arrays in a context
for moving to monthly to a daily if I want to be specific and make sure that
you've drawn something of value out of it is not because we can take higher
time frame levels and transpose them onto a daily
25:20
chart that's not the point it goes beyond that if we lose a level if we lose a
order block for instance like we see here okay we saw price trade down and it
moved up so this could have been a bullish order block price came down here
Why didn't it go up why did it come all the way down here it went through this
down candle to go right back into which is a higher weekly order block it
wasn't until we saw the the election of Donald Trump that's what this big
whipsaw move was where they took out the stops here and it had to
25:54
trade all the way back down to the lower weekly bullish order block which is
what this is now I'm showing on the daily chart but this level is all on that
lowest weekly bullish order block so again you can see how this low here it
was violated but it went down to the most logical area on the weekly chart so
the daily chart was pushed aside and the values that's attributed to using daily
time frame that wasn't sufficient enough the banks went back to recapitalizing
a level on the weekly chart and that's
26:26
what this whole move is here usually when you see these big surges higher or
lower in price and you're watching it on a daily chart or if you see it on a lower
time frame you just can't understand what's going on quickly go out to a
weekly chart and you'll see what they've done or what they're reaching for and
then many times what everybody else gets afraid of to go back into if they got
knocked down take a loss like for instance say you bought down here maybe
you bought this low here
26:48
as a old well and you bought it as cell stops being ran out okay great about it
you start to see some money and all of a sudden this boom you get knocked
out if you go and look at the weekly chart you can see that all that was in the
return back to that Weekly order block and if it was starting to trade back up to
this level here it could be a buyer again because you know that they went
down to the weekly order block and there's nothing to worry about dude all
they did was recapitalize a longer term pdra and that's all it was this is a
27:17
return back to a Polish or block on a weekly time frame so if you lose a level
on a daily don't be concerned just go out to a weekly chart and you'll see what
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they're reaching for if you can't find it on the weekly chart which is probably
unlikely but if you can't go out to a monthly chart and you'll probably see much
clearer where they're trying to push price the algorithm is going to work
predominantly on a daily time frame but if the levels are already worked
enough and already absorbed all of the
27:44
potential liquidity because it's already been trading to them it will go out to that
larger open float and that usually will dip you into the weekly ranges so when
you see the market movement to the weekly objectives or the levels that we
identify with these PD arrays then you'll know that you're probably going to
have a really significant price move because of the weekly level those large
funds Banks and institutions they're all going to Dogpile on those levels
because they're significant and
28:12
they're long term and they're poised to make moves like this so until next time
wish you good luck.
 175

Stop Entry Techniques For Long Term Traders

stop entry techniques for long term traders okay buying with stop orders
preferably you're going to be looking for setups to have the monthly and or
weekly suggesting institutional order flow would be seeking a pd array above
daily market price the daily should post a bearish candle the daily chart must
close the candle with a down close it is not valid while the daily chart candle is
trading or forming and you're going to be placing a buy stop at the bearish
candles opening
00:58
okay here's the high the candle the low of the candle this is the opening on
the candle and here's the close you're going to be placing a buy stop for an
entry on long positions at that price right here this is where you place your buy
stop entry the concept is you're going to be using strength to get you long in
the marketplace now you're not going to be just buying any old down candle
you're going to be looking at the pd arrays that would be in a discount market
or while you're in a long-term uptrend
01:39
every down candle promotes new buying opportunity for smart money so
you'll be using this entry technique here to get in sync with those long-term
trends again you have to have a monthly and or weekly institutional order flow
reference point in the form of a pd array that means that has to be a weekly
order block that's bearish above daily price it has to be a fair value gap above
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daily price in the form of a weekly or monthly chart something on the monthly
and weekly preferably both is leading you to believe that price
02:15
will be drawn up there on that time frame the daily you're gonna be actually
waiting for the move to go against that intended direction that's why we're
buying off of a down candle we're using the opening price on the down candle
now think about this for a second order block theory this would be a bullish
order block a down candle is a bullish order block if price trades away from a
down candle and we trade back down into that opening of the down candle
that's also what a future entry long position so see what
02:49
we're doing here we're using this buying of strength idea the mechanics
behind it is is that it should price trade back up to that opening price and
through it we should be turning the corner and should be training higher but if
it doesn't trade back above the opening price you don't get a fill you just got to
wait for another new down candle and you keep moving forward every time
you get a new successive down candle you keep adding that new entry at the
opening price so you you would be consistently moving
03:25
forward one new trading day every time a new candle paints and if you don't
get a fill on the daily these go to the next daily candle once as long as there's
another down candle you keep doing it you may miss moves you may not get
a fill you may get filled and eventually get stopped out we'll talk about stops
when we talk about trade management but for now we're just focusing on the
entry pattern an entry concept using a daily time frame and now think about
this we're actually dovetailing really nicely with order
03:53
block theory so if we're buying at the opening price on a down candle long
term expecting monthly and or weekly pd arrays to be the draw on price in
other words something on the higher time frame charts are going to bring
price higher the daily charts going to submit to those higher time frame weekly
monthly ideas and they're going to trade up into those levels okay but they
won't just go straight up they'll go up then come back down to that same
opening price many times giving another opportunity to buy so what you can
do is
04:22
when price moves away from the opening price and comes right back down
you are looking for confirmation you're going to see new buying and that may
be another opportunity for you to add new positions but that's only in
instances where if you've taken profits off in other words once this by entry
has been executed in your long if you get several hundred pips in your favor
you can take some of that position off with the expectation that you may end
up seeing a retracement back to that same opening price if it does you can
put
04:52
that same position that you took off in partial profits right back on at that same
opening price and it gives you an opportunity to get basically the average then
same cost for that long price then you hold it for the remaining portion of your
trade and you can do this every single time there's a new down candle that
you enter on a buy stop at the opening price it's the same concept as going
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forward every single time until you reach that monthly end or weekly pd array
in the form of a premium market so once it gets overbought if you
05:23
will when there's a monthly and weekly charts then as long as that's not there
we continuously follow along with the marketplace on a daily chart every down
candle promotes new buying opportunities for smart money the higher we get
on the monthly and weekly range and get closer to those premium ranges the
less likely these candles are going to promote strong buying so just be careful
about that you will be buying preferably at equilibrium or less than the range
that you would identify on the monthly and weekly
05:50
charts okay selling with stop orders okay the monthly indoor weekly should
suggest institutional order flow will be seeking a pd array below daily market
price the daily should post a bullish candle the daily chart must close the
candle with a up close and it is not valid while the daily chart candle is trading
indoor forming the cell stop is placed at the bullish candles open here's your
high here's the high the candle the low of the candle the close of the candle
the open of the candle and right here is we're going to place
06:31
your cell stop for a short entry and the premise behind this is we're gonna be
expecting weakness to take us into the marketplace now again think about
what we just showed you in terms of the buy stop on a down candle at the
opening price it's just like a return to a bullish order block because we buy at
that opening price this same premise here is the entry price technique that we
use to go short at a bearish order block which is the last up candle rate for the
down price move we're going to sell on a stop right at that opening
07:04
price and if we get profitability in our trade and we looks like we can see a
retracement back to that same order block or same up candle in this case we
could get short again with the partial profit we've taken off so for instance they
say we go short on daily chart and we get short on the stop at the opening
price of this this bullish candle we could look for several hundred pips in our
favor in terms of profitability take a portion of it off bank some profits then if we
do get a retracement back to that same opening price we can sell
07:41
short again with that same portion we just took partial profits and re-
established that same initial position back on again at that same average
price again the premises we're expecting the market to be drawn lower from a
monthly and weekly standpoint so there's a pda rate that's going to be
drawing that weekly and monthly chart lower okay so we're trading on the
higher time frame monthly and weekly but we're executing on the daily so
while the monthly and weekly are poised to go lower institutionally speaking
08:11
we're waiting for a move that's opposite the direction by having an up candle
or a bullish candle we're seeing the market have a short-term retracement or
creating a short-term overbought scenario when we see the opening price on
that up candle traded to many times you're going to see that it never turns
back from that that low it just keeps on going and that opening price becomes
a very good trigger for short selling or a sell program
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08:45
nice move up here we have a small little down candle and you'd be placing a buy
stop at the opening price so buy stop at that opening price on that daily candle and
we're going to say that we didn't get a fill here so it'd be a missed opportunity we
have a new down candle place a buy stop on the opening price of the down candle
you see the next candle we open lower than that down candles open so in other
words the very next green candle or bullish candle it opened lower than our down
candle or bearish candles
09:25
opening price so our buy stop would have been triggered as that bullish candle
trades up so we would be triggered long in that position but now we have another
down candle so we could take a look at that opening price and should we see price
trade back up to that level we could be entered long again on a buy stop same thing
happens here market trades up through it and gives us a nice little pop and here we
have that successive one two three candles lower all being down candles each time
we have the opportunity to be net long
10:04
the one in the middle the other three down candles you may have been tripped in
long on that particular entry point but your stop-loss as you'll learn will be below the
swing low that's most recently been created on the daily chart and below a specific
reference point which will outline in lesson eight but you could be long here and you
can also then use this opening price as well to add to it so you have a buy stop on
the opening price of this down candle you see price does fill that and you would be
net long from that price and we
10:47
have another down candle we could watch this buy stop and trigger in a long entry at
this opening price price does eventually make a lower candle and then that lower
candles opening price does get tripped two candles to the right of it and eventually
sees another little move higher.
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 180

we're going to take a look at now using this idea for selling on a stop and
here's the section of the japanese yen looking at old high from 2007 you can
see how price made a piercing of that 123.
11:27
50 level and price rejected had a break in market structure and had a sell-off
we're going to break that whole area down in the shaded area you see there's
a market structure break here that's the initial one but there's a secondary one
but we're going to focus on this one primarily we're going to assume that you
can see that this market on a daily time frame was getting in sync with the
lower objectives for the monthly and weekly dollar yen and in pd arrays they
would be looking for lower prices
12:00
would draw price on the daily chart lower and i mapped out every one of the
up candles that went back to the premium of the ranges that price was trading
in for the daily chart and every opening price once it's triggered you would be
net short so there's one two three four five examples in here where each one
of the up candles just a short time after its formation of the up candle it trips
you short for the japanese yen and you can see another example here where
the price trades back up to a mitigation block
12:34
and the up candle you would look to sell short at the opening price and you
see that down arrow indicating that was the candle that you'd be using the
very next candle you would be short and that's that same level right there just
shown in a more higher time frame view of it several hundred pips again and
this last one here over a thousand pips available in terms of downside
potential and again this is using the monthly weekly pd arrays as your
directional bias and then using the up candles and down candles
13:08
in relationship to using the stop entry in this case we're using uh the selling on
the stop at the opening of a up candle and the opportunity is and many times
if you look at these candles here you can see how they return back to the
same candles you shorted from on a stop they become bearish order blocks
at a later time too so you can actually put more position in and you can build
in larger positions if you start with a small amount allocated to the initial
position you can build in another position in other words if you
13:37
go with a half position or half of your traditional size you can go and add more
back in but have already profited on portions that otherwise may not have
been viewed as an opportunity so until we talk next time i wish you good luck.
 181

Limit Order Entry Techniques For Long Term Traders

using limit entry techniques for long-term traders okay we're looking at buying
with a limit order and much likely used for the buy stops the monthly end or
weekly should suggest institutional order flow will be seeking a pd array above
daily market price the daily should post a bearish candle the daily chart must
close the candle with a down close and it is not valid while the daily chart
candle is treating and or forming and the buy limit is going to be placed
00:52
at the bearish candles close this is a daily candle so we're looking at the daily
high the daily low the daily open and the daily close we're gonna be looking to
enter a buy limit order at the close of the daily candle that's down close while
the market is bullish and we're expecting a higher price move in the asset
class we're trading what you're going to be seeing is the markets are going to
be undervalued in already primarily bullish market condition preferably this is
going to be useful to
01:28
you when the market's already shown the willingness to have a market
structure break it's already started to move higher it's already started to move
higher so therefore prices are really underway there's going to be
opportunities when we start talking about swing trading we can utilize the
information in that module to help get better fills on the long-term entries
closer to the turning points but for this module really we're focusing on how
you don't necessarily need the big turning points at the top or the bottoms
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01:59
you just need to meet in between and be a long-term trader still and it
capitalizes on a lot of pips a lot of points if you uh if you do these types of
trades it takes a long time for them to come to fruition and long time for them
to set up but nonetheless when we use a buy limit entry at the close what
we're doing is the very next day or the next candle when it opens up we're
expecting price movement to move below that down candles close what we're
actually doing is we're buying at a deeply undervalued price
02:29
it's already going to be oversold without requiring any indicators but we're
going to be buying at a deep deep discount when the market's predisposed to
move higher you're going to see in our examples how it nails down extremely
extremely awesome entry points i mean they're so deep in discount and you
get quick immediate feedback even on a daily basis that you're on the right
side of the marketplace and you start seeing profitability almost immediately
okay selling with limit orders just like we had with the
03:03
cell stops the monthly and or weekly should suggest institutional order flow
will be seeking pd arrays below daily market price the daily should post a
bullish candle and the daily chart must close the candle with a up close it is
not valid while the daily chart candle is trading and or forming and the sell limit
is going to be placed at the bullish candles close so this candle again
representing our daily candle up close this is the daily high the daily low the
close and the open for that particular day and we're gonna be looking to
03:40
have a sell limit order right there at the candles close and what we're doing is
essentially we're selling short in an overvalued or overbought condition in a
market that's predisposed to go lower based on monthly and or weekly pd
arrays that will draw price lower so institutional flow should draw prices lower
on the daily but we're getting this up movement against what longer term
institutional order flows suggesting again on monthly and or weekly chart so
while prices moving higher for this particular day
04:15
what we're doing is we're going to be looking to sell short at the next day but it
has to be above this particular candles close now again we're not just selling
on a limit on any up candle if we have an opinion about being bearish these
conditions are best suited when we align them with a daily pd array in other
words if there's a bearish order block if there's a gap that it's traded into if it's
filled in a void if it's traded above a recent high okay or it's retreat back into an
old
04:46
historical low support broken analysis resistance there's like those types of
ideas we're not just indiscriminately going out and finding up candles and dam
candles i should have mentioned this as well when we talked about the stop
orders but you're not just simply going in based on the candle itself by itself
it's not a be all end-all and you know a system in and of itself you have to
blend the pd arrays on the daily chart as well so by blending these things
together with the higher time frame monthly and weekly
05:14
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pulling price one side or the other bullish or bearish respective on those
higher time frame charts when we have those conditions also in opposite
terms so basically what i'm saying is on monthly and weekly if you're
expecting lower prices or bearish pd arrays that should draw price down to a
discount what you're expecting to see on the daily is up movement to go to a
short term premium when that occurs then you have really really low risk high
probability entry patterns at your disposal and this is one of the most amazing
ones you're
05:50
going to see by selling short on a limit above that candles close what you're
doing is essentially getting that last little piece of market movement above
getting that last little surge many times when we look at day trades you're
going to see that that's many times what you'll see is the judah swing it'll open
make the high in london and then sell off and it'll be the beginning of a long
long term move in that particular pair or asset.
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japanese yen example and we're going to

06:21
use this idea as well and you can see we have the down candle and using the
close as our limit order to be a buyer you see how that transpires here each
down candles close the next day it trades down below it you would be filled
only limit going long and look at the responsiveness of price immediately after
that there's one two three four five examples here on this daily time frame and
while it probably doesn't look exciting here probably doesn't feel like you know
it's that big of a deal i can assure you when we get
06:58
into two slides from now you'll see just how much of an importance this is but
again what we're looking at is the weekly chart here you can see how price
was moving away from that 100 level and there was a bearish order block up
around that 118 119 level and that was the weekly premium pd array that
would draw price up to that level long long term and we saw a bullish order
block down in the discount level at 100 so you saw the willingness to want to
bounce off that level we go back down into a daily chart
07:34
here you can see in november during the post election rally of donald trump's
election in the u.s price stabbed one more time down into that weekly bullish
order block uh prior to that november dip we saw a september rally away from
a previous order block that was formed in august 2016 september we saw it
retrade back down into it and using the down candle the very next day it did
trade down below the close giving an amazing fill now what you're seeing
here is these lines that are drawn right up from the
08:09
down candle up into that red shaded area that's that weekly pd array or
bearish order block what that means is this price should be drawn up to that
level in weekly and from the low that was formed in september buying on a
limit below the daily candles close from that point all the way up to the weekly
pd array or bearish order block it's 1800 pips for that particular low the next
one comes in around november 17th or thereabouts and you can see that that
limit order below the daily close would have been filled as well and from that
08:48
point up to the weekly weekly pd array up at the weekly bearish order block
was 980 pips and then the next down close on this daily chart here again
using the close of that down candle as a buy limit order entry point that next
candle puts you in a position where it would have been 785 pip move the next
down candle again comes in with a 600 pit rally and another one comes in at
500 pips and the last one right before it gets to the weekly pd array given a
360 pip price move and again buying below the candles close on a limit
09:28
you're buying that real deep suppressed um undervalued market and it's in a
deep discount and it will look to seek to move to a premium and it's an
amazing thing when you go through your charts and you look at this and start
studying it and again what we're looking at is daily time frames it's not that
we're looking at you know hourly charts or 15 minute charts and a lot of folks
assume just because we're on these higher time frame charts there's not a lot
of opportunities there isn't as many as you would see in
09:58
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terms of day trades or scalps no i would quickly agree with that but there are
plenty of opportunities when you're in these long-term trends and they have a
real clear indication it wants to move higher to a monthly or weekly level
there's many opportunities you can get in there and get positioned and not
have to get the high and you can see here that move from the 980 pip move
it's essentially the equilibrium price bar just below it and even above the
equilibrium price point there was many opportunities where you could have
got
10:27
several hundred pips and whether you are a day trader scalper or whatever i
mean those types of numbers are just simply not something to scoff at they're
very respectable numbers so my question to you in closing is do you still think
you need intraday trading to make pips hopefully after this teaching you'll
quickly come to the conclusion that you do not need that so folks that felt that
i'm only teaching day trading and short-term trading things this is the type of
trading that you can find opportunities with still maintain risk
10:58
relatively low and still find a payable framework for your trading ideas to pan
out and this is just one pair in one focus on a pd array on a weekly and
monthly basis and until next time i wish you good luck.
 186

Position Trade Management

possession trade management okay for bullish market conditions we like to

anticipate potential bullish seasonal tendencies and again like I preface in
every one of the seasonal teachings it's not a Beyond though it's not a
Panacea it's just a rule of thumb a road map if you will about what may unfold
in price action just because it's done it for the last 40 plus years doesn't mean
this year or
00:50
next year or the three years from now when you sit down in front of the charts
doesn't mean that's going to be the outcome you see in price but we start
there because seasonal Tendencies are just that there's a tendency for price
to do certain things since we're looking for bullish market conditions we're
going to be focusing on the bullish seasonal tendencies that are most likely to
occur in the next three to four months we went through some of my ideal
seasonal Tendencies which ones I like and how it go in to the
01:20
marketplace and look for them what we do after we identify what most likely
will unfold for a bullish seasonal tendency is we have to look at inter-market
analysis confirmations is there something to suggest there really is a bullish
technical picture for that seasonal tendency to come to fruition if there isn't
any technicals to align with that seasonal tendency this season it's a seasonal
isn't going to drive price but technical is in alignment with the seasonal
tendency are a very powerful couple
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01:49
what is the interest rate markets telling you okay are are yields increasing
because if the yields are increasing it's going to be good for the currency that
you're trading if we see Divergence between the yields that may suggest
there's going to be a shift or a pause in the underlying direction of the
marketplace at the current moment when we look at inter-market analysis we
are blending the two of interest rate yields and we're also blending the four
major asset classes the stock market interest rates Commodities and
02:25
currencies all four of them together should be confirming your general outlook
on the marketplace now you may not get clear pictures from all four but if
you're getting three to indicate that your directional bias for your asset you're
going to be trading is in fact what they're suggesting as well or confirming then
you probably got a pretty good trade idea lined up once this occurs we go into
a higher time frame monthly and weekly chart for PDA now PDA is premium
discount array or PD array I'm
03:01
going to be abbreviating that for the remainder of this mentorship so that way
when you receive PDA it's the premium discount arrays that means the order
blocks all the things I look for for institutional reference points we're looking for
a higher time frame weekly and monthly charts to indicate where institutional
overflow on those particular time frames will look to seek to trade to when we
understand there's two higher time frames then we'll know what the daily chart
is going to do and we're
03:31
going to be focusing on the daily chart for a quarterly shift or intermediate
price swing every three or four months we're going to be looking for this new
price Wing to occur and we're going to be looking at inter-market analysis
interest rate yields to suggest that is in fact unfolding we're not trying to pick
the absolute low and we're not trying to pick the absolute High we are trying to
get in sync with that quarterly shift to get the meat in between in other words
the biggest portion of the move that's what we're
03:58
focusing on we use the daily pdas to frame our bullish setups in other words
we're looking for ore blocks voids gaps rejection blocks you know old highs
hold lows we're looking for those things to to frame our buy setup we're
waiting for that to occur based on what we see on the higher time frames and
with intermarket analysis and hopefully a seasonal tendency is also
suggesting a bullish move as well when we have these things in alignment we
have a great deal of confluences in our camp we're looking for a high
04:35
probability scenario in that case once you get to this stage what you're going
to have to do is to you're going to have to determine whether you're going to
be a buyer on a stop or a buyer on a limit it doesn't matter which one you'll
elect to go with but just understand that if you are going to be trading with limit
orders there's a probability of you missing moves or missing your fills because
you're demanding a specific price level when you go on a buy stop generally
you're going to end up getting filled
05:03
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more times using that order but unfortunately that creates a little bit more Gap
in between where you're entering and where your stop loss is going to be if as
long as you're not over leveraging your account which brings us to how much
money should you be risking no more than one percent and again keeping the
idea that you're taking big positions in terms of the time that you're in there but
not big positions in the terms of how much you're allocating to the to the
trades so you're looking for big moves with a
05:33
little bit of your account by having that your risk is going to be reduced but
your maximum payout is going to be massive in terms of how many Pips you
draw but still it's going to be relative in terms of the percentage because it's
just the nature of this time frame once you determine you're going to be
buying on a stop or a limit and you enter the position you're going to be trailing
your stop loss below the lowest low in the last 40 trading days now this brings
us back to the ifta data range why are we looking for the lowest
06:04
level last 40 trading days because if we're looking for a bullish move the
market will most likely not want to go back 40 trading days to find the low it's
going to be looking for the highs in the last 40 trading days so that means we
are going to have a trailing stop loss order that's very handsomely behind the
current market price and it's going to take a very significant price move to stop
you out it avoids getting knocked out of the marketplace prematurely and
when you're trading long-term trends or
06:35
long-term quarterly shifts the worst thing it can happen is get knocked out
prematurely and then the market moves take place and you miss out on that
move in this time frame you are not looking to Trail your stop-loss Ultra tight
you have to have some freedom in the market you can't just let it you know
you can't demand really Ultra tight stops in long-term trading you gotta allow it
to move a little bit gyrate pool back against you sometimes and initially when
you first get in the trade you just gotta have to weather that and
07:04
unfortunately it may not be your cup of tea but that's again the nature of the
Beast once the trend starts underway and it starts moving in your favor if it
moves 50 percent of the range that you expect to see unfold on the monthly
and or weekly chart because that's what you're actually trading off of you're
executing on a daily chart once that range moves to 50 of what you expect to
see in terms of profitability say say it's a 500 pit range or a thousand pip range
If It Moves if it's a
07:36
thousand foot range we're referring to If It Moves 500 Pips in your favor you
need to still consider what the lowest low was in the last 40 days your stop
loss is going to be below that but when we get above 50 percent then we're
going to be looking for the lowest low in the last 20 days once we get about
three quarters of the way of the entire weekly monthly range you want to start
trailing your stop loss below the most recent low in the last 20 trading days
okay and I'll talk about that in examples in a
08:07
moment but your permitting price to seek out the liquidity on the upside and
giving it a lot of room to consolidate if it needs to before it goes another leg
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higher if you keep your stop loss below the lowest loan the last 40 trading
days you're going to have a better chance of staying in the move and not
being stopped out prematurely okay for bearish market conditions I could
probably just save this slide and decide everything I just said for the bullets
just reverse it but for completeness sake we are being paid to
08:41
do this now so I want to give you both sides uh the bearish market conditions
again we're anticipating a potential bear seasonal tendency so we're focusing
on the Bears tendencies that have the most ideal conditions what times of the
year are they expected we already know what they are we went through those
in three teachings and once we understand what is most likely to occur
seasonally again we're just looking for it first there then we're looking for inter-
market analysis confirmations is
09:09
there a suggestion across all four major asset classes currency markets
interest rates Commodities and the stock market are they all in agreement
with the expectation you have for the next three to four months and if interest
rate yields are confirming that direction as well interest rates rising or
increasing or decreasing is that Salient to your expectation for the bearish
move that you're trying to to take on for next quarterly shift if this does align
then we go to the higher time frame monthly and weekly and
09:44
we start looking for the ranges and we look for the PDA for monthly and
weekly objectives institutionally where are we looking to go how far are we
looking to go down where are the old loads where are the bullish order blocks
where are the liquidity voids on the downside where are the fair value gaps
below us where are the mitigation blocks and potential Breakers we have to
be valueful of okay all those ideas we have to start mapping those out
because they're either going to be speed bumps or they're going to be rocket
fuel for
10:15
our next price leg in our bearish expectations so we have to be mindful of
them going forward we'll have them already in our charts we won't be
surprised by them and once we have all these ideas then we can expect that
quarterly shift to take place and then therefore have an intermediate term
price swing moving over the course of two to three potentially four months at
maximum where we see a bearish move take place once we have the
scenario outlined okay and we expect the monthly and or weekly ranks or
10:44
swing to take effect what we're going to be doing is focusing on the daily chart
and we're going to be utilizing the daily pdas that means the daily premium
discount arrays or basically we're looking for bearish order blocks we're
looking for bearish liquidity voids to fill in we're looking for old highs to sell
above we're looking for rejection blocks above and old highs handles body
and we're looking for uh bearish Breakers to trade into we're looking for
mitigation blocks to trade against and sell off of all
11:15
those ideas we're looking for that on a daily time frame to get in sync with the
move we expect to see unfold on the monthly and weekly charts so we're
using the daily PDA to frame our bearish setups once we have our setup what
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we're looking for is the determination are we going to be selling on a stop or

are we selling on a limit order and that's going to be a matter of personal
preference again like I said with the bullish market conditions if you're going to
be selling on a limit chances are you may not get
11:44
your fill so just take that into consideration and if you're 100 certain you have
to have the entry selling on a stop is almost a guarantee you're going to get
that fill because you're going to be selling on weakness and once that price is
triggered you'll be short and again but it opens a little bit more risk from where
you enter and where your stop loss needs to be which brings us to once
you're in the move you're going to be using a trailing stop loss above the
highest high in the last 40 trading days
12:12
and what that's going to keep you from having happen is a premature stopout
you don't want to get knocked out of the market before you actually see the
move transpire you don't want to have any opportunity for the market to have
a move against you and see it take off once it knocks you out that's enough
it's very frustrating to see that happen and if you wait a long time for these
long-term setups to get set up just to get knocked out prematurely you
exercise so much patience to get to that stage than to
12:43
Once get in it and then it knocks you out worse thing can happen is you get
fearful or never get another opportunity to get back in and it takes off and runs
away from you then you have to wait for another higher level objective to get
in to uh and then you obviously lose some of the potential profit but
nonetheless you can still get in the positions but it's nothing worse than that
and having all the analysis done the homework the patience factor and get in
in the market talk you know knocks you out prematurely
13:09
because you're trying to have too much of a tight stop loss you don't need to
do that on a higher time frame trading in fact it's better if you keep a wider
stop and you try not to rush to move it up to break even because break even
on long-term trading is just the worst thing they possibly ever consider you
don't want to do that so we're going to be trailing your stop loss above the
highest high in the last 40 trading days and by doing so what you're doing is
actually giving the market room to
13:34
breathe and move around when you identify the range at which you're trying
to see unfold on the monthly and or weekly chart when the price moves 50
percent of that range in your favor okay in other words it's moved half the
distance you thought it was going to even at that moment okay you're still
going to be using the highest high and last 40 trading days your stop is going
to be above that okay because you're not trying to get knocked out once it
moves to about three quarters of the the range that you
14:01
anticipate seeing then what you're going to be doing is you're going to be
looking for the highest high in the last 20 trading days because you're getting
really close to that ultimate objective and it may not really get there so you
want to lock in as much profit as possible if you use the highest high in the
last 40 trading days and you've seen three quarters of the move you may see
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a deep retracement that maybe end up becoming the actual reversal that you
didn't expect to see think like Optimal trade entry it could
14:28
go 79 of the total move you expect to see but then fail and go the other
direction and you would just be knocked out with a great deal of more larger
loss by using that trailing 40-day stop loss above the highest high and last 40
trading Days by reducing it to only 20 trading days we're using ipta
procedures for data ranges but we're using measuring the ranges okay and
grading the scale of how far that move has already happened when we start
getting mature in our move we want to start locking in more aggressively that
that
15:01
position but we're only going to drop down to a 20-day look back once we get
to three quarters of the move that we expect to see then we have to start
dropping back in terms of how far we go back in terms of using a stop loss
basis you know we're not going to use 40 trading days the entire duration of
the trade we only get three quarters of the move under our belt you know
obviously we're going to be looking to lock in some of that profit and keeping it
from moving a great deal against us so by using a
15:29
19- day look back every single day while we're in the trade once three
quarters of the move has been seen what you're doing is you're ultimately
bringing that stop loss closer to the market price but not so close that knocks
you out if it does knock you out and goes to the below a 20-day low chances
are you probably May really handsome profit or you probably saved yourself a
complete reversal and watch it erode more profits if you would have stepped
just kept that that 40 trading Day High.
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January teaching up okay we're looking at the Japanese Genesis the weekly
chart and we have the high up here and we have these equal lows we talked
about during the live uh teachings of the mentorship and then below these
equal lows we have these two panels which makes the bullish order block and
what we're going to do is we're going to add a Fibonacci just to grade the
scale of this entire range so we have this high all the way down to this low I'm
sorry this is high rather of this
16:38
candle and that gives us our range low and this is our Range High okay and
here's equilibrium right in here okay so we're looking at this move here after
market structure has been broken we have this swing low here it's violated
here and then we have a rally so we're going to be looking at this high in here
only daily looking for an ultimate move down to this level here so we're going
to go to a daily chart now dropping down into it and we're going to be looking
at the sell side first okay here's that move
17:21
we'll refer to this in a minute when we get to the um the buy side objectives
but here we have this High here price has the um a break in Market structure
here and we have a rally up it goes into this last up candle which is a PDA on
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a weekly basis and it's also a PDA for the daily and it's a bearish order block
for us here trades right up into the body of this candle which is the open
comes in at 121.
17:58
69 the high on this candle comes in at 21.72 so only three Pips higher than
this opening price at that candle here we have the up candle so we're going to
be doing what we're going to be deciding if we're going to sell short on a limit
we're gonna be selling short either on a limit above this close or we're going to
be selling on a stop down here which one are you going to do but what we're
doing is once we get in we have to use the high in the last 40 trading days I
have here a range that's already been created with 40.
18:38
right here so there's 40 trading days from this day here which is the trade day
here because you have the up candle this is the day you would trade Look
Back 40 days your stop loss has to be above here so your range of risk is
framed out for you by doing this and let's just say you're going to sell a limit if
you have a stop loss of 250 Pips you got to be above that say 260 Pips that's
your stop okay some of you are probably cringing with that 260 Pips good
grief it's long-term trading folks
19:16
and I mean you really gotta change your uh way of thinking about it because
it's not going to be the same as it was when we were discussing complete uh
intraday action and then you can do things like this you can go here is one
two three four five six seven eight and we won't get nine
20:22
it just falls short of that okay so we have basically eight r on this trade that's
falling short even at the objective so we can have uh that one off here and
here's AR right there okay so selling short up here we have 8 times 260 Pips
the thing about that that's a massive move okay it's huge move okay and as
you trade this what you're doing is you're you're continuously every single
time you look at the trading day you're in you're going to be looking back and
again I have another Ranger here 40
21:18
pip uh 40 trading days range or approximation let's say like that okay every
trading day you're going to keep looking back what was the highest high in the
last 40 trading days okay each trading day you're looking at the right end of
this here okay every single trading day you're looking at the highest high and
you're keeping your uh stop loss above that high whatever that whatever that
high is okay like right in here looking back in the last 40 trading days your stop
is above this high at this point here we have that real
21:54
deep trading retracement your stock has got to be above these highs okay
this is where we actually hit the objective so anything past that doesn't mean
anything but at this moment here your stop has to be above this hot here so it
keeps you from getting locked knocked out prematurely and again eight times
260 Pips that's this huge huge move so we're going to focus now on the buy
side and we saw that Weekly bullish order block down here and we expected
it to trade back up to the weekly bearish order block
22:33
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in here here's the buy Looking Back 40 trading days your buy uh buy position
has a protective sell stop below these lows in here okay if you bought in here
before the election and we had that big wild whipsaw even with this wild whip
saw if you would have bought this day here on a limit below the close here on
the limit on this candle if you bought here on this candle on a limit on this day
here yeah you would have saw profits and then on the election day you would
have rode through all this probably would have
23:04
been scary for you but even then 40 trading days back your stop has to be
below here so you're not knocked out long term you're in there and again the
same thing you're looking for the lowest low when you buy it in the last 40
trading days like for instance if you bought here your stop has to be below this
low let's see which one's lower this one the low is 109.
23:35
19 and then you have this candle here yeah one and 9 19 so it's got to be
below this low here and then you have another buying opportunity on this day
here again your stop still stays below here on this day again your stop still
stays below here on this day here the lowest low in the last 40 trading days is
here still but we have to change gears now once we get half the range I'm
going to add a fib to this we have our low foreign here and once price trades
through this here we start looking back 20 trading days and we start trailing
our stop loss
24:31
below the lowest low in the last 20 trading days so we get 20. from here stop
loss has to be below here on this buying day here the last 20 trading days
your stop loss still below here this day here the last 20 trading days is still
below here this day here the last 20 trading days stock loss has to be below
here and on this trading day your stop loss has to be below this trading day
slow and after that it just hits the objective the weekly bear shorter block so
again above halfway point you want to start trailing your stop loss tighter
25:15
below the low the last 20 trading days but prior to equilibrium or halfway move
you want to be 40 trading days back using if the data ranges because it's not
likely it's going to seek that liquidity it's going to be seeking the liquidity above
the 40-day ties in above the 20 highs and it's going to be looking for the 60-
day high now you can see how that if the data range comes into play using
these higher time frames so until we talk again I wish you good luck.