The Luck Factor

A ten-year scientific study into the nature of luck has revealed that, to a large extent,
people make their own good and bad fortune. The results also show that
it is possible to enhance the amount of luck that people encounter in their lives.

RICHARD WISEMAN

B
arnett Helzberg Jr. is a lucky man. By 1994 he had
built up a chain of highly successful jewelry stores
with an annual revenue of around $300 million. One
day he was walking past the Plaza Hotel in New York when
he heard a woman call out, "Mr. Buffett" to the man next to
him. Helzberg wondered whether the man might be Warren
Buffett—one of the most successful investors in America.
Helzberg had never met Buffett, but had read about the
financial criteria that Buffett used when buying a company.
Helzberg had recently turned sixty, was thinking of selling
his company, and realized that his might be the type of com-
pany that would interest Buffett. Helzberg seized the oppor-
tunity, walked over to the stranger and introduced himself.

May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

The man did indeed turn out to be Warren Buffett, and the The Power of Superstition
chance meeting proved highly fortuitous because about a year People have searched for an effective way of improving the
later Buffett agreed to buy Helzberg's chain of stores. And all good fortune in their lives for many centuries. Lucky charms,
because Helzberg just happened to be walking by as a woman amulets, and talismans have been found in virtually all civiliza-
called out Buffett's name on a street corner in New York. tions throughout recorded history, lbuching ("knocking on")
Helzberg's story illustrates the effect of luck in business, but wood dates back to pagan rituals that were designed to elicit
good fortune also plays a vital role in all aspects of our lives. the help of benign and powerful tree gods. The number thir-
Stanford psychologist Alfred Bandura has discussed the impact teen is seen as unlucky because there were thirteen people at
of chance encounters and luck on people's personal lives. Christ's last supper. When a ladder is propped up against a wall
Bandura noted both the importance and prevalence of such it forms a natural triangle which used to be seen as symbolic
encounters, writing that "some of the most important deter- of die Holy Trinity. To walk under the ladder would break the
minants of life paths often arise through the most trivial of cir- Trinity and therefore bring ill fortune.
cumstances." He supports his C9«" with several telling exam- Many of these beliefs and behavior? ar<- still with us. In
ples, one of which was drawn from his life. As a graduate stu- 1996, the Gallup Organization asked 1,000 Americans
dent, Bandura became bored with a reading assignment and so whether they were superstitious. Fifty three percent of people
decided to visit the local golf links with a friend. Just by said that they were at least a little superstitious, and 25 percent
chance, Bandura and his friend found themselves playing admitted to being somewhat or very superstitious. Another
behind two attractive female golfers, and soon joined them as survey revealed that 72 percent of the public said that they
a foursome. After the game, Bandura arranged to meet up with possessed at least one good luck charm. Superstitious beliefs
one of the women again, and eventually ended up marrying
her. A chance meeting on a golf course altered his entire life. Richard Wiseman is a psychologist at the University of
In short, lucky events exert a dramatic influence over our Hertfordshire and a CSICOP fellow. E-mail: R. Wiseman
lives. Luck has the power to transform the improbable into the @herts.ac.uk. This article is based on his new book The Luck
possible, to make the difference between life and death, reward Factor, published in April 2003 by Talk Books. Web site:
and ruin, happiness and despair. www. luckfactor. co. uk.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 27

and behaviors have been passed down from generation to gen- Next, diey were asked to carry a lucky charm with them and
eration. Our parents told us about them and we will pass them to monitor the effect that it had on their lives. The charms had
on to our children. But why do they persist? I believe that the been purchased from a New Age center and promised to
answer lies in the power of luck. Throughout history, people enhance good fortune, wealth, and happiness. After a few
have recognized that good and bad luck can transform lives. A weeks everyone in the group was asked to indicate the effect
few seconds of ill fortune can lay waste years of striving, and that the charms had had on their lives. Overall, there was
moments of good luck can save an enormous amount of hard absolutely no efFect in terms of how satisfied they were with
work. Superstition represents people's attempts to control and their lives, how happy they were, or how lucky they felt.
enhance this most elusive of factors. And the enduring nature Interestingly, a few participants diought that they had been
of these superstitious beliefs and behaviors reflects the extent especially unlucky, and seemed somewhat relieved that they
could now return the charms.

The Luck Project

Superstition doesn't work because it is
based on outdated and incorrect thinking.
Superstition comes from a time when people It comes from a time when people thought
that luck was a strange force that could
thought that luck was a strange force that only be controlled by magical rituals and
could only be controlled by magical rituals bizarre behaviors.
Ten years ago I decided to take a more
and bizarre behaviors. scientific investigation into the concept of
luck. I decided that the best method was
to examine why some people are consis-
tently lucky whilst others encounter little
but ill fortune. In short, why some people
seem to live charmed lives full of lucky
of people's desire to find ways of increasing their good luck. In breaks and chance encounters, while others experience one
short, superstitions were created, and have survived, because disaster after another.
they promise that most elusive of holy grails-—a way of I placed advertisements in national newspapers and
enhancing good fortune. magazines, asking for people who considered themselves
exceptionally lucky or unlucky to contact me. Over the years,
Testing Superstition 400 extraordinary men and women have volunteered to
There is just one problem. Superstition doesn't work. Several participate in my research; the youngest eighteen, a student,
researchers have also tested the validity of these age-old beliefs the oldest eighty-four, a retired accountant. They were drawn
and found them wanting. My favorite experiment into the from all walks of life—businessmen, factory workers, teachers,
topic was a rather strange study conducted by high school stu- housewives, doctors, secretaries, and salespeople. All were
dent (and member of the New York Skeptics) Mark Levin. In kind enough to let me put their lives and minds under
some countries, a black cat crossing your path is seen as lucky, the microscope.
in other countries it is seen as unlucky. Levin wanted to dis- Jessica, a forty-two-year-old forensic scientist, is typical of
cover whether people's luck really changed when a black cat the lucky people in the group. She is currently in a long-term
crossed their path. To find out, he asked two people to try their relationship with a man who she met completely by chance at
luck at a simple coin tossing game. Next, a black cat was a dinner party. In fact, good fortune has helped her achieve
encouraged to walk across their path, and the participants then many of her lifelong ambitions. As she once explained to me,
played the coin tossing game a second time. As a "control" "I have my dream job, two wonderful children, and a great guy
condition. Levin also repeated the experiment using a white, that I love very much. It's amazing, when I look back at my life
rather than a black, cat. After much coin tossing and cat cross- I realize that I have been lucky in just about every area." In
ing. Levin concluded that neither the black or white cat had contrast, the unlucky participants have not been so fortunate.
any efFect on participants' luck. Also, skeptics have regularly Patricia, twenty-seven, has experienced bad luck throughout
staged events in which they have broken well-known supersti- much of her life. A few years ago, she started to work as cabin
tions, such as walking under ladders and smashing mirrors— crew for an airline, and quickly gained a reputation as being
all have survived the ordeals intact. accident-prone and a bad omen. One of her first flights had to
A few years ago I decided to put the power of lucky charms make an unplanned stop-over because some passengers had
to the test by empirically evaluating the actual effect that they become drunk and abusive. Another of Patricia's flights was
have on people's luck, lives, and happiness. I asked a group of struck by lightning, and just weeks later a third flight was
volunteers to complete various standardized questionnaires forced to make an emergency landing. Patricia was also con-
measuring their levels of life satisfaction, happiness, and luck. vinced that her ill fortune could be transferred to otJicrs and

28 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

so never wished people good luck, because this had caused about the whole situation. They became very focused on the
them to fail important interviews and exams. She is also center dot and over a third of them missed the large dots when
unlucky in love and has staggered from one broken relation- they appeared on die screen. The harder they looked, the less
ship to the next. Patricia never seems to get any lucky breaks they saw. And so it is with luck—unlucky people miss chance
and always seems to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. opportunities because they are too focused on looking for
Over the years I have interviewed these volunteers, asked something else. They go to parties intent on finding their per-
them to complete diaries, personality questionnaires, and fect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends.
intelligence tests, and invited them to my laboratory to par- They look through newspapers determined to find certain
ticipate in experiments. The findings have revealed that luck type of job advertisements and as a result miss other types of
is not a magical ability or the result of random chance. Nor jobs. Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore
are people born lucky or unlucky. Instead,
although lucky and unlucky people have
almost no insight into the real causes of
their good and bad luck, their thoughts Lucky people generate their own good fortune
and behavior arc responsible for much of
their fortune. via four basic principles. They are skilled at
My research revealed that lucky people creating and noticing chance opportunities,
generate their own good fortune via four make lucky decisions by listening to their
basic principles. They are skilled at creating
and noticing chance opportunities, make intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies
lucky decisions by listening to their intu-
ition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via
via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient
positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.
attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

Chance Opportunities
Take the case of chance opportunities. Lucky people consis- see what is there rather than just what they are looking for.
tently encounter such opportunities whereas unlucky people But this is only part of the story when it comes to chance
do not. I carried out a very simple experiment to discover opportunities. Many of my lucky participants went to consid-
whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot erable lengths to introduce variety and change into their lives.
such opportunities. I gave both luck)' and unlucky people a Before making an important decision, one lucky participant
newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me would constantly alter his route to work. Another person
how many photographs were inside. On average, the unlucky described a special technique that he had developed to force
people took about two minutes to count the photographs him to meet different types of people. He had noticed that
whereas the lucky people took just seconds. Why? Because whenever he went to a party, he tended to talk to the same type
the second page of the newspaper contained the message of people. To help disrupt this routine, and make life more
"Stop counting—There are 43 photographs in this newspa- fun, he thinks of a color before he arrives at the party and then
per." This message took up half of the page and was written chooses to only speak to people wearing that color of clothing
in type that was over two inches high. It was staring everyone at the party! At some parties he only spoke to women in red,
straight in rhc face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it at another he chatted exclusively to men in black.
and the lucky people tended to spot it. Just for fun, I placed Although it may seem strange, under certain circumstances,
a second large message halfway through the newspaper. This this type of behavior will actually increase the amount of
one announced: "Stop counting, tell the experimenter you chance opportunities in people's lives. Imagine living in the
have seen this and win $250." Again, the unlucky people center of a large apple orchard. Each dav vou have to venture
missed the opportunity because they were still too busy look- into the orchard and collect a large basket of apples. The first
ing for photographs. few times it won't matter where you decide to visit. All parts of
Personality tests revealed that unlucky people are generally the orchard will have apples and so you will be able to find
much more tense and anxious than lucky people, and research them wherever you go. But as time goes on it will become
has shown that anxiety disrupts people's ability to notice the more and more difficult to find apples in the places that you
unexpected. In one experiment, people were asked to watch a have visited before. And the more you return to the same loca-
moving dot in the center of a computer screen. Without warn- tions, the harder it will be to find apples there. But if you
ing, large dots would occasionally be flashed at the edges of the decide to always go to parts of the orchard that you have never
screen. Nearly all participants noticed these large dots. The visited before, or even randomly decide where to go, your
experiment was then repeated with a second group of people, chances of finding apples will be dramatically increased. And
who were offered a large financial reward for accurately watch- it is exactly the same with luck. It is easy for people to exhaust
ing the center dot. This time, people were far more anxious the opportunities in their life. Keep on talking to the same

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2003 29

people in the same way. Keep taking the same route to and Luck School
from work. Keep going to the same places on vacation. But I wondered whether the principles uncovered during my
new or even random experiences introduce the potential for work could be used to increase the amount of good luck that
new opportunities. people encounter in their lives. To find out, 1 created "luck
school"—a series of experiments examining whether people's
Dealing with Bad Luck
luck can be enhanced by getting them to think and behave
But a lucky life is not just about creating and noticing chance like a lucky person.
opportunities. Another important principle revolved around The project comprised two main parts. In the first part I
the way in which lucky and unlucky people dealt with the ill met up with participants on a one-to-one basis, and asked
fortune in their lives. Imagine being chosen to represent your them to complete standard questionnaires measuring their
country in the Olympic Games. You compete in the games, do luck and how satisfied diey were with six major areas of their
very well, and win a bronze medal. How happy do you think life. I then described the four main principles of luck,
that you would feel? Most of us would, I suspect, be overjoyed explained how lucky people used these to create good fortune
and proud of our achievement. Now imagine turning the in their lives, and described simple techniques designed to help
clock back and competing at the same Olympic Games a sec- them think and behave like a lucky person. For example, as I
ond time. This time you do even better and win a silver medal. noted earlier, without realizing it, lucky people tend to use var-
How happy do you think you would feel now? Most of us ious techniques to create chance opportunities, and soften the
think that we would feel happier after winning the silver medal emotional impact of any ill fortune they encounter. During
than the bronze. This is not surprising. After all, the medals luck school participants were shown how to be more open to
are a reflection of our performance, and the silver medal indi- the opportunities that surround them, how to break daily rou-
cates a better performance than a bronze medal. tines, and also how to deal more effectively with bad luck by
But research suggests that athletes who win bronze models imagining how things could have been worse. I asked my vol-
are actually happier than those who win silver medals. And unteers to spend a month carrying out exercises and then
the reason for this has to do with the way in which the ath- return and describe what had happened.
letes think about their performance. The silver medallists The results were dramatic. Eighty percent of people were
focus on the notion that if they had performed slightly better, now happier, more satisfied with their lives, and, perhaps most
then they would have perhaps won a gold medal. In contrast, important of all, luckier. Unlucky people had become lucky,
the bronze medallists focus on the thought that if they had and lucky people had become even luckier. At the start of the
performed slightly worse, then they wouldn't have won any- article I described the unlucky life of Patricia. She was one of
thing at all. Psychologists refer to our ability to imagine what the first people to take part in Luck School. After a few weeks
might have happened, rather than what actually did happen, carrying out some simple exercises, her bad luck had com-
as "counter-factual." pletely vanished. At the end of the course, Patricia cheerfully
I wondered whether lucky people might be using counter- explained that she felt like a completely different person. She
factual thinking to soften the emotional impact of the ill for- was no longer accident-prone and was much happier with her
tune that they experienced in their lives. To find out, I decided life. For once, everything was working out her way. Other vol-
to present lucky and unlucky people with some unlucky sce- unteers had found romantic partners through chance encoun-
narios and see how they reacted. I asked lucky and unlucky ters and job promotions simply through lucky breaks.
people to imagine that they were waiting to be served in a bank.
Suddenly, an armed robber enters the bank, fires a shot, and the Positive Skepticism
bullet hits them in the arm. Would this event be lucky or After ten years of scientific research my work has revealed a
unlucky? Unlucky people tended to say that this would be radically new way of looking at luck and the vital role that it
enormously unlucky and it would be just their bad luck to be plays in our lives. It demonstrates that much of the good and
in die bank during the robbery. In contrast, lucky people bad fortune we encounter is a result of our thoughts and
viewed the scenario as being far luckier, and often sponta- behavior. More important, it represents the potential for
neously commented on how the situation could have been far change, and has produced that most elusive of holy grails—an
worse. As one lucky participant commented, "It's lucky because effective way of increasing the luck people experience in their
you could have been shot in the head—also, you could sell your daily lives.
story to the newspapers and make some money." The project has also demonstrated how skepticism can play
The differences between the lucky and unlucky people were a positive role in people's lives. The research is not simply
striking. Lucky people tend to imagine spontaneously how the about debunking superstitious thinking and behavior.
bad luck they encounter could have been worse and, in doing Instead, it is about encouraging people to move away from a
so, diey feel much better about themselves and their lives. magical way of thinking and toward a more rational view of
This, in turn, helps keep their expectations about the future luck. Perhaps most important of all, it is about using science
high, and, increases die likelihood of diem continuing to live and skepticism to increase the level of luck, happiness, and
a lucky life. success in people's lives. D

30 May/June 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER