Probability

NF ** 16. A community survey shows that 30% of 700 boys like reading books, and 50% of 800 girls like
reading books. A child is chosen among the children in this community. Let G be the event that
a girl is chosen and B be the event that the child chosen likes reading books. Find
(a) P(G), (1 mark)
(b) P(B), (2 marks)
(c) P(G | B), (2 marks)
(d) P(B | G). (2 marks)
800
(a) P(G) =
800  700
8
=
15
700(0.3)  800(0.5)
(b) P(B) =
1 500
61
=
150
P(G and B)
(c) P(G | B) =
P(B)
8 1
( )( )
= 15 2
61
( )
150
40
=
61
P(B and G)
(d) P(B | G) =
P(G)
8 1
( )( )
= 15 2
8
( )
15
1
=
2

NF ** 17. Box A contains 3 red cards and 3 white cards. Box B contains 4 white cards and 2 red cards.
Box C contains 5 red cards and 1 white card. A card is drawn from a box at random. Find the
probability of drawing
(a) a white card, (4 marks)
(b) a red card. (4 marks)
(a) P(drawing a white card)
1 3 1 4 1 1
= ( )( ) + ( )( ) + ( )( )
3 6 3 6 3 6
4
=
9
 (b) P(drawing a red card)
1 3 1 2 1 5
= ( )( ) + ( )( ) + ( )( )
3 6 3 6 3 6
5
=
9
NF ** 18. A box contains 15 red balls and 10 yellow balls. Two balls are drawn at random one at a time
without replacement. Find the probability of getting
(a) 2 red balls, (2 marks)
(b) 2 yellow balls, (2 marks)
(c) 2 balls of the same colour, (2 marks)
(d) 2 balls of different colour. (2 marks)
(a) P(2 red balls)
15 14
= ( )( )
25 24
7
=
20
(b) P(2 yellow balls)
10 9
= ( )( )
25 24
3
=
20
(c) P(2 balls of the same colour)
7 3
= +
20 20
1
=
2
(d) P(2 balls of different colour)
= 1  P(2 balls of the same colour)
1
=1
2
1
=
2
NF ** 19. Two students are selected at random among 18 boys and 12 girls to participate in a school debate.
Find the probability that
(a) the first speaker is a boy and the second speaker is a girl, (2 marks)
(b) the first speaker is a girl and the second speaker is a boy, (2 marks)
(c) one boy and one girl participate in the debate, (2 marks)
(d) two boys or two girls participate in the debate. (2 marks)
(a) P(the first speaker is a boy and the second speaker is a girl)
18 12
= ( )( )
30 29
 36
=
145
(b) P(the first speaker is a girl and the second speaker is a boy)
12 18
= ( )( )
30 29
36
=
145
(c) P(one boy and one girl participate in the debate)
= P(the first speaker is a boy and the second speaker is a girl)
+ P(the first speaker is a girl and the second speaker is a boy)
36 36
= +
145 145
72
=
145
(d) P(two boys or two girls participate in the debate)
= 1  P(one boy and one girl participate in the debate)
72
=1
145
73
=
145

NF ** 20. One letter is chosen at random from each of the words “TEACHER” and “STUDENT”. Find
the probability of getting
(a) two vowels, (2 marks)
(b) two consonants, (2 marks)
(c) at least one consonant, (2 marks)
(d) a consonant from “TEACHER” and one vowel from “STUDENT”. (2 marks)
 (a) P(two vowels)
= P(a vowel from “TEACHER”)  P(a vowel from “STUDENT”)
3 2 6
=  =
7 7 49
(b) P(two consonants)
= P(a consonant from “TEACHER”)  P(a consonant from “STUDENT”)
4 5 20
=  =
7 7 49
(c) P(at least one consonant)
= 1  P(two vowels)
6
=1
49
43
=
49
(d) P(a consonant from “TEACHER” and one vowel from “STUDENT”)
4 2
= 
7 7
8
=
49

NF ** 21. A man owns three horses. The three horses participate in three different races in a day. The
5 4
probability that horse A will win a race is . The probability that horse B will win a race is ,
6 5
3
and the probability that horse C will win a race is . Find the probability that the owner
4
(a) will win the three races, (1 mark)
(b) will lose the three races, (2 marks)
(c) will win at least one race, (2 marks)
(d) will win at least two races. (4 marks)
(a) P(will win the three races)
5 4 3
= ( )( )( )
6 5 4
1
=
2
(b) P(will lose the three races)
5 4 3
= (1  )(1  )(1  )
6 5 4
1
=
120
(c) P(will win at least one race)
= 1  P(will lose the three races)
1
=1
120
 119
=
120
(d) P(will win at least two races)
= P(will win two races) + P(will win three races)
5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 1
= ( )( )(1  ) + ( ) (1  )( ) + (1  )( )( ) +
6 5 4 6 5 4 6 5 4 2
1 1 1 1
= + + +
6 8 10 2
107
=
120

NF ** 22. The examination for applying a driving license in a city consists of two papers A and B. A
driving license will be issued only if the person obtain a pass in both papers. Re-examination is
needed for a fail in that paper.
The probability for Mr. Hung to get a pass in papers A and B are 0.8 and 0.6 respectively.
The probability for Mr. Wong to get a pass in papers A and B are 0.7 and 0.9 respectively.
Find the probability that
(a) Mr. Hung gets the license by taking the examination only once. (2 marks)
(b) Mr. Hung needs to take the re-examination. (3 marks)
(c) At least one of them get the license without taking re-exmaination. (4 marks)
(a) Required probability = P(pass in paper A)  P(pass in paper B)
= 0.8  0.6
= 0.48
(b) P(re-examination) = 1  P(pass in both papers)
= 1  0.48
= 0.52
(c) P(Mr Wong needs to take the re-examination) = 1  0.7  0.9
= 0.37
 P(both of them need to take the re-examination) = 0.52  0.37
= 0.192 4
 Required probability
= 1 – P(both of them need to take the re-examination)
= 1  0.192 4
= 0.807 6
NF *** 23.

The figure shows a railway system. When a train arrive the junctions X, Y and Z, the probabilities
1
that it switches to routes A, B and C are all . A train departs from the terminal station and
3
travels at random.
(a) Find the probability that the train will get a crash. (2 marks)
(b) Find the probability that the train will be derailed. (4 marks)
(c) Find the probability that the train will arrive the destination. (5 marks)
(a) The train will get a crash if it passes point A.
1
 P(get a crash) =
3
(b) The train will be derailed if it does not pass through point A but pass through point B and
then through point C.
 P(will be derailed) = P(not through A)  P(through B)  P(through C)
1 1 1
= (1  )  
3 3 3
2
=
27
(c) There are two routes for the train to arrive the destination:
1. not through A  through B  not through C
2. not through A  not through B
 P(arrive the destination) = P(not through A)  [P(not through B)
+ P(through B)  P(not through C)]
1 1 1 1
= (1  )  [(1  ) +  (1  )]
3 3 3 3
16
=
27

NF *** 24. Victor draws a card from a deck of 52 playing cards. He will stop drawing once a heart has been
drawn, otherwise another card is drawn without replacement until a heart is drawn.
(a) Find the probability that Victor stops after drawing once. (2 marks)
(b) Find the probability that Victor stops after drawing twice. (3 marks)
(c) Find the probability that Victor stops after drawing at most three times. (6 marks)
 (a) P(stops after drawing once)
= P(heart)
13
=
52
1
=
4
(b) P(stops after drawing twice)
= P(not getting a heart in the first draw and getting a heart in the second draw)
39 13
= 
52 51
13
=
68
(c) The following shows the possible events:
Getting a heart in the first draw;
Getting a heart in the second draw;
Getting a heart in the third draw.
39 38 13
P(stops after drawing three times) =  
52 51 50
247
=
1 700
 P(drawing at most three times) = P(stops after drawing once)
+ P(stops after drawing twice)
+ P(stops after drawing three times)
1 13 247
= + +
4 68 1 700
997
=
1 700

NF *** 25. Archer A hits the target eight times for every 10 shoots, whereas archer B hits the target seven
times for every 10 shoots. If both of them shoot once,
(a) find the probability that both hits the target, (2 marks)
(b) find the probability that nobody hits the target, (2 marks)
(c) find the probability that either archer A or archer B hits the target, (3 marks)
(d) find the probability that archer A hits the target, given the target has been hit. (3 marks)
8 4
Let A be the event that archer A hits the target, then P(A) = = .
10 5
4 1
P( A ) = 1  =
5 5
7
Let B be the event that archer B hits the target, then P(B) = .
10
7 3
P( B ) = 1  =
10 10
(a) P(both hits the target) = P(A)  P(B)
 4 7
= 
5 10
14
=
25
(b) P(nobody hits the target) = P( A and B )
= P( A )  P( B )
1 3
= 
5 10
3
=
50
(c) P(either archer A or archer B hits the target) = 1  P(nobody hits the target)
3
=1
50
47
=
50
(d) P(A hits the target  target has been hit)
P(A hits thetarget and thetarget has been hit)
=
P(thetarget has been hit)
P(A)  P(B )  P(A)  P(B)
=
1  P(A)  P(B)
4 3 4 7
  
= 5 10 5 10
3
1
50
40
=
47
NF *** 26. There are four rounds in a match. For each round, a participant will get 1 point for success and
no marks will be given for fail. If the probability that Mr. Cheung pass each round successfully
is 0.7, find the probability that
(a) he gets 0 point in the match, (2 marks)
(b) he gets 1 point in the match, (4 marks)
(c) he gets 2 points in the match. (5 marks)
The probability that Mr. Cheung gets 0 point for each round = 1  0.7
= 0.3
(a) The following is the event that Mr. Cheung gets 0 point in the match:
{0, 0, 0, 0}
 P(0 point) = 0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
= 0.008 1
(b) The followings are the events that Mr. Cheung gets 1 point in the match:
{1, 0, 0, 0}, {0, 1, 0, 0}, {0, 0, 1, 0}, {0, 0, 0, 1}
 P(1 point) = 4  (0.3  0.3  0.3  0.7)
= 0.075 6
 (c) The followings are the events that Mr. Cheung gets 2 points in the match:
{1, 1, 0, 0}, {1, 0, 1, 0}, {1, 0, 0, 1}, {0, 1, 1, 0}, {0, 1, 0, 1}, {0, 0, 1, 1}
 P(2 points) = 6  (0.7  0.7 0.3  0.3)
= 0.264 6
NF *** 27. (a) Two fair dice are thrown.
(i) Find the probability that the sum is less than 8. (2 marks)
(ii) Find the probability that the sum is less than 8 or the sum is a prime. (3 marks)
(b) Suppose 1 mark is awarded if the sum is less than 8 or the sum is a prime, otherwise
1 mark will be deducted.
(i) Find the probability of getting 0 mark in total for the two throws. (3 marks)
(ii) Find the probability of getting 2 marks in total for the two throws. (3 marks)
(a) (i) There are 36 outcomes of throwing two dice.
The outcomes that the sum is less than 8 are:
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (5, 1), (5, 2), (6, 1)
There are 21 pairs.
21
 P(sum is less than 8) =
36
7
=
12
(ii) The outcome that the sum is less than 8 and is a prime are:
(5, 6), (6, 5)
There are 2 pairs.
21 2
 P(sum is less than 8 or sum is a prime) =
36
23
=
36
(b) (i) P(get 0 mark)
= P(first throw gets 1 mark and second throw loses 1 mark)
+ P(first throw loses 1 mark and second throw gets 1 mark)
23 23 23 23
= ( )( 1  ) + (1  )( )
36 36 36 36
299 299
= +
1 296 1 296
299
=
648
(ii) P(get 2 marks)
23 23
= ( )( )
36 36
529
=
1 296
(2012-HKDSE MATH SP1 – Q16) 10 11
(a)
21 (b) 21
(2012- HKDSE MATH PP1 – Q13) (a) 8 (b)(i) 45˚ (ii) No

(2012- HKDSE MATH PP1 – Q16) 68 530

(a)
609 (b) 609
(2012- HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q16) 8 5
(a)
13 (b) 13
(2013-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q10) (a) median = 31, mode = 23

a  0 a  1 a  2 8
(b)(i)   
b  7 , b  8 , b  9 (all) b(ii) 65
(2013-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q16) 1 27
(a)
28 (b) 28
(2014-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q19) 6 75
(a)
11 (b)(i) 32 (ii) Option 1 (iii) No
(2015-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q3) 3
10
(2015-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q16) 360 5
(a)
1001 (b) 11
(2016-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q9) 2
(a)
x = 6 , y = 22 , z = 40 (b) 5
(2016-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q15) 5
42
(2017-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q17) 5 35 3731
(a)
3876 (b) 969 (c) 3876
(2018-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q4) 7
(2018-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q15) (a) 40320 (b) 8640
(2019-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q15) 200 914
(2020-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q11) 3
(a)
6 (b) 10
(2020-HKDSE MATH CP1 – Q15) 161 3715
(a)
3876 (b) 3876