MTH210

19th November 2023

Question 1. The weights of certain machine components are normally distributed with mean of 60 gram and a standard
deviation of 10 gram. Find the top 10 percentile.

Solution

Let X be the weight of one machine component. Because X follows the normal distribution with a mean of
60 gram and a standard deviation of 10 gram,

X = N (60, 102 )

Let d be the cut-off weight of the top 10%, then

P (X ≥ d) = 10% (1)

X − 60
Put Z = , then by a common result, we get
10
Z = N (0, 12 )

Now, from (1), we have

P (X ≥ d) = 10%
⇐⇒ P (10Z + 60 ≥ d) = 0.1
 
d − 60
⇐⇒ P Z ≥ = 0.1
10
 
d − 60
⇐⇒ 1 − P Z ≤ = 0.1
10
 
d − 60
⇐⇒ P Z ≤ = 0.9
10
d − 60
⇐⇒ = 1.2 + 0.08 (See table page 433 for more)
10
⇐⇒ d = 72.8

So, every machine component whose weight is greater than or equal to 72.8 gram belongs to the top 10
percentile.
Question 2. Given X = N (µ, σ 2 ) where µ = 20 and σ = 10. Find the following probabilities:
a) P (X < 20)
b) P (0 < X < 5)

Solution

a)
 
20 − µ
P (X < 20) = PZ< (where Z = N (0, 12 ))
σ
 
20 − 20
=P Z<
10
= P (Z < 0)
≃ P (Z ≤ 0)
= 0.5 (see table page 433 for more)

Page 1
 b)
 
0−µ 5−µ
P (0 < X < 5) = P <Z< (where Z = N (0, 12 ))
σ σ
 
0 − 20 5 − 20
=P <Z<
10 10
= P (−2 < Z < −1.5)
≃ P (−2 ≤ Z ≤ −1.5)
= P (Z ≤ −1.5) − P (Z ≤ −2)
= 0.0668 − 0.0228 (see table page 432 for more)
= 0.044

Question 3. An Associates Market Research found 10% of Americans do not think that having a college education is
important to succeed in the business world. If a random sample of 300 Americans is selected, find these
probabilities.
a) Exactly 10 people will agree with that statement (" having a college education is not important to succeed
in the business world").
b) At most 11 people will agree with that statement.
c) Fewer than 9 people will agree with that statement.

Solution

Let X be the number of people who agree with the given statement, then X is a random variable. And the
distribution of X is binomial distribution, shown as

X = B(300, 0.1)

a) Now, the probability of the event that there are exactly 10 people (among 300 random people) who agree
with the given statement is
10
P (X = 10) = C300 × (0.1)10 × (1 − 0.1)300−10 ≈ 7.52 × 10−6

p Let Y be a normal random variable with mean µ = 300 × 0.1 = 30 and the standard deviation σ =
b)
300 × (0.1) × (1 − 0.1) = 5.196, then we denote

Y = N (30, 5.1962 )

Because 300 × 0.1 ≥ 5 and 300 × (1 − 0.1) ≥ 5, by a well-known result, we have

P (X > 11) ≃ P (Y ≥ 11 + 0.5) = P (Y ≥ 11.5) (1)

P (X ≥ 9) ≃ P (Y ≥ 9 − 0.5) = P (Y ≥ 8.5) (2)

Now, the probability of the event that there are at most 11 people (among 300 random people) who agree
with the given statement is

P (X ≤ 11) = 1 − P (X > 11)

≃ 1 − P (Y ≥ 11.5) (using (1))
 
11.5 − µ
=1−P Z ≥ (where Z = (0, 12 ))
σ
 
11.5 − 30
=1−P Z ≥
5.196
= 1 − P (Z ≥ −3.56)
≃ P (Z ≤ −3.56)
= 0.0002 (see table page 432 for more)

Page 2
 c) Now, the probability of the event that there are fewer than 9 people (among 300 random people) who agree
with the given statement is

P (X < 9) = 1 − P (X ≥ 9)
≃ 1 − P (Y ≥ 8.5) (using (2))
≃ P (Y ≤ 8.5)
 
8.5 − µ
=P Z≤ (where Z = N (0, 12 ))
σ
 
8.5 − 30
=P Z≤
5.196
= P (Z ≤ −4.14)
=0 (see table page 432 for more)

Question 4. A producer plans an outdoor event. The cost of the event is $8,000. This includes advertising, security, printing
tickets, entertainment, etc. The producer plans to make $12,000 profit if all goes well. However, if it rains,
the event will have to be canceled. According to the weather report, the probability of rain is 0.25. Show the
probability distribution of the profit. Find the producer’s expected profit.

Solution

Let X be a possible profit when the outdoor event is over, then X is a random variable. And all possible values
of X are {−8, 000; 12, 000}. (Here, we mean profit = revenue - cost. For example, if it rained, the revenue would
be $0 and the cost would be $8,000, and therefore the profit is $-8,000.) To show the probability distribution
of the profit, we mean finding P (X = −8, 000) and P (X = 12, 000). So, we have

P (X = −8, 000) = P (the weather rains)

= 0.25

and

P (X = 12, 000) = P (the weather does not rain)

= 1 − P (the weather rains)
= 1 − 0.25
= 0.75

Now, we obtain the familiar table which shows the probability distribution of the profit

x P (X = x)
-8,000 0.25
12,000 0.75

The expected profit is

E(X) = (−8, 000) × 0.25 + 12, 000 × 0.75 = 7, 000

The expected profit, E(X) = 7, 000, means that if the producer actually execute that outdoor event with a
very large (or large enough) number of time, the actual profit will approach to 7, 000. So, because the expected
profit is greater than 0, the producer should execute that outdoor event.
Question 5. The Gift Basket Store had the following premade gift baskets containing the following combinations in stock.

Cookies Mugs Candy

Coffee 20 15 20
Tea 10 10 10

Page 3
Choose 1 basket at random. Find the probability that it contains
a) Coffee or Cookies?
b) Tea given that it contains Candy?
c) Tea and Mugs?

Solution

Let
• A be the event that the gift basket contains Coffee.
• B be the event that the gift basket contain Cookies.
• C be the event that the gift basket contain Tea.
• D be the event that the gift basket contain Candy.
• E be the event that the gift basket contain Mugs.
Let U be the gift basket contains random given combinations, then we have

|U | = 20 + 15 + 20 + 10 + 10 + 10 = 85

a)

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
|A| |B| |A ∩ B|
= + −
|U | |U | |U |
20 + 15 + 20 20 + 10 20
= + −
85 85 85
13
=
17

b)

P (C ∩ D)
P (C | D) =
P (D)
10
85
= 20+10
85
1
=
3
c)
10 2
P (C ∩ E) = =
85 17

Page 4