Why haven’t we seen aliens yet?
Luiz Vinicius Cunha Maciel
MET
2024
Abstract
The main idea of this work is to present the vastness of the universe as a whole
and thereby raise the question of why we do not see aliens in our daily lives.
Additionally, it aims to explore possible solutions to a question posed since
1950 by Enrico Fermi.
Index
Introduction………………………………………………………
………………
Fermi
Paradox..................................................................................
Kardashev
Scale..............................................................................
Type I...........................................................................................
Type II..........................................................................................
Type III.........................................................................................
Dark
Forest.......................................................................................
The Great
Filter.................................................................................
Scenario I....................................................................................
Scenario II...................................................................................
Newborn
Humanity…………………………………………………………
….
Rare
Earth………………………………………………………………
………….
Conclusion………………………………………………………
………………..
Introduction
Consider for a moment the sheer magnitude of the universe that surrounds us.
Stretching across an expanse of approximately ninety billion light-years, the
observable universe is a tapestry woven with trillions upon trillions of stars, each
potentially orbited by its own retinue of planets. Within this cosmic expanse, our
own galaxy, the Milky Way, stands as a sprawling collection of stars, nebulae,
and celestial wonders.
Within the Milky Way alone, there are estimated to be anywhere from 100 to
400 billion stars, many of which are accompanied by their own families of
planets. Some of these planets may share characteristics with our own Earth,
such as a suitable distance from their parent star to support the presence of
liquid water—a crucial ingredient for life as we know it. These exoplanets, as
they are called, exist within what scientists term the "habitable zone," where
conditions might be conducive to the emergence and evolution of life.
Yet, as we gaze out into the depths of space, we are confronted not only with
the vastness of the cosmos but also with the profound silence that pervades it.
Despite our best efforts to scour the heavens for signs of life beyond our planet,
we have yet to detect any conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations.
This absence of empirical confirmation raises a poignant question: Are we truly
alone in the universe, or is life, in some form or another, waiting to be
discovered amidst the stars? The search for answers to this question lies at the
intersection of science, philosophy, and imagination, prompting us to consider
the possibilities and implications of encountering intelligent beings from beyond
our world.
The quest to uncover the mysteries of the cosmos has led to the development
of sophisticated technologies and observational techniques, such as the
deployment of powerful telescopes both on Earth and in space, as well as the
exploration of distant planets within our own solar system and beyond.
Initiatives like the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) seek to detect
signals or other indications of intelligent life emanating from distant star
systems, while missions to Mars and other celestial bodies aim to investigate
the potential for microbial life beyond Earth.
Yet, even as our understanding of the universe deepens and our technological
capabilities expand, the search for extraterrestrial life remains fraught with
uncertainties and unanswered questions. The vast distances that separate us
from other star systems pose formidable challenges to exploration and
communication, while the nature of life itself—whether it is a rare and precious
phenomenon or an inevitable consequence of cosmic evolution—remains a
subject of debate and speculation.
In contemplating the existence of extraterrestrial life, we are confronted not only
with the limitations of our current knowledge but also with the boundless
potential of the universe to surprise and inspire us. Whether or not we ever
encounter intelligent beings from beyond our world, the pursuit of this question
serves as a testament to humanity's insatiable curiosity and our enduring quest
to comprehend the cosmos and our place within it.
So, I ask the question once more: Do you believe in aliens? In a universe so
vast and diverse, the answer may ultimately lie not only in the stars themselves
but also within the depths of our own imaginations.
Fermi Paradox
A physicist named Enrico Fermi in the year 1950 also wondered about it and
then he formulated the “Fermi Paradox.” Based on Drake’s calculations, even if
only 0.1% of Milky Way planets could support life, which would still amount to
over a million planets with complex life. In the course of time, many analogies
and hypothetical solutions were mentioned as answers to the Fermi Paradox,
and this provoked broad lines of theories and debates. And so, this enigma has
interested not just scientists but everyone else as well, inspiring various
investigations and contemplation regarding extraterrestrial intelligence.
Furthermore, following the Fermi Paradox, there have emerged multidisciplinary
works by not only physics and astronomy but also biosciences, philosophy, and
even sociology. These works were the topic of what this discovery would be
apart from the presence or absence of extraterrestrial life.
For example, in astrobiology, some of the research has focused on investigating
conditions and environments that may sustain life and be conducive to its
existence far away from Earth, helping us to understand the limits of habitability
throughout the universe. Moreover, our search for signs of alien life extends
further than merely Earth-like planets; we also include unusual worlds like
frozen moons and gas giants where organisms could exist that would be quite
distinct from anything we know about on Earth.
Nonetheless, the Fermi Paradox presents a deeper kind of complexity than just
being a mere search for some tangible proofs for the existence of
extraterrestrial life, but also about what it implies with respect to the definition of
life and cosmic evolution and humanity’s place in this vast universe. The
discourse on the Fermi Paradox has been changing, undergoing transitions
based on new findings and emerging theories, fostering ever greater curiosity
and intrigue over exploring life outside Earth.
Kardashev Scale
Fourteen years after Enrico Fermi's seminal contributions to the understanding
of extraterrestrial life, Nikolai Kardashev introduced a captivating concept that
furthered the discourse on advanced civilizations: the Kardashev scale. This
scale, rooted in the measurement of energy utilization, became a pivotal
framework in the exploration of astrobiology and the potential existence of
extraterrestrial intelligence.
Kardashev's scale proposes a method for classifying civilizations based on their
ability to harness and manipulate energy resources. By focusing on energy
consumption, it offers insights into the technological capabilities and
advancements of civilizations beyond our own.
At its core, the Kardashev scale distinguishes between civilizations based on
their capacity to utilize energy. This perspective provides a lens through which
to examine not only the technological prowess of a civilization but also its
impact on its environment and potential for advancement.
By contemplating the implications of the Kardashev scale, scientists and
thinkers delve into questions about the sustainability of technological progress,
the potential trajectories of human civilization, and the vastness of the universe.
It prompts reflections on our own energy consumption patterns and their long-
term consequences, as well as speculation about the existence and
characteristics of other advanced civilizations.
Type I
Expanding upon the notion of Type I civilizations harnessing their planet's
energy fully, we delve into the intricacies of their energy utilization strategies.
These civilizations have reached a level of technological sophistication where
they can tap into the entirety of their planet's energy resources, optimizing their
usage through a combination of renewable sources like solar, wind,
hydroelectric, and geothermal power, as well as advanced nuclear technologies.
In the context of our current technological development, humanity might be
considered as approaching a Type I status, albeit not fully there yet. Our
civilization, often labeled as a Type 0.7 or even lower on the Kardashev scale, is
in a transitional phase, gradually transitioning from reliance on finite and
environmentally detrimental energy sources such as fossil fuels to more
sustainable and efficient alternatives.
The notion of humanity as a Type 0.7 civilization underscores our progress
towards greater energy utilization and mastery, albeit with significant room for
improvement. It serves as a reminder of the ongoing journey towards
sustainability and efficiency in energy usage, highlighting the importance of
technological innovation and societal adaptation in achieving higher levels of
civilization development.
Moreover, the concept of civilization types on the Kardashev scale offers a lens
through which to analyze the trajectory of technological progress and societal
evolution. It suggests that civilizations have the potential to advance along a
continuum of energy utilization, with each stage representing a significant leap
in technological prowess and environmental stewardship.
Type II
Expanding upon the transition from a Type I to a Type II civilization, we delve
into the profound implications of harnessing the energy of an entire solar
system. This monumental leap represents a pivotal milestone in the evolution of
a civilization, requiring not only technological prowess but also a fundamental
shift in perspective towards the mastery of celestial bodies and their resources.
At the core of the transition to a Type II civilization lies the ability to harness the
energy output of an entire star, typically achieved through the construction of
megastructures such as Dyson spheres or Dyson swarms. These colossal
engineering feats encase a star, capturing and utilizing its energy output on an
unprecedented scale. Additionally, Type II civilizations extend their reach
beyond their home planet to encompass the entirety of their solar system,
tapping into the resources of other planets, moons, asteroids, and even the sun
itself.
The transition from Type I to Type II civilization marks a significant expansion in
energy utilization and manipulation capabilities. It necessitates the development
of advanced technologies for space travel, resource extraction, and energy
conversion, as well as the establishment of sustainable infrastructure across
multiple celestial bodies.
Furthermore, the leap to a Type II civilization implies a profound shift in a
civilization's relationship with its environment. Rather than being confined to the
limitations of a single planet, these civilizations demonstrate the capacity to
adapt and thrive across diverse celestial landscapes, effectively transforming
entire solar systems into extensions of their habitat.
The concept of Type II civilizations prompts us to contemplate the potential
trajectories of technological advancement and societal evolution. It challenges
us to envision a future where humanity transcends the confines of Earth and
embarks on a journey towards becoming stewards of the cosmos.
Type III
Expanding upon Kardashev's ultimate proposal of a Type III civilization, we
embark on a journey into the realm of truly awe-inspiring cosmic mastery. This
pinnacle of advancement represents a civilization's ability to harness the
incomprehensible energy output of an entire galaxy, marking a monumental
leap beyond even the formidable capabilities of a Type II civilization.
At the heart of the transition to a Type III civilization lies the capacity to extend
one's reach across vast swathes of space, encompassing entire star systems
and exerting influence on a galactic scale. Such a civilization would possess the
ability to manipulate the energy resources of countless stars, planets, and
celestial phenomena within their galactic domain.
The implications of a Type III civilization are profound, challenging the very
limits of our understanding of the universe and our place within it. It prompts us
to contemplate the vastness of cosmic potential and the staggering heights to
which intelligent life may ascend.
In the quest to comprehend the existence and characteristics of Type III
civilizations, we are faced with profound questions about the nature of
intelligence, technology, and the cosmic order. We ponder the possibilities of
civilizations that have transcended the constraints of time and space, forging a
legacy that spans the epochs of galactic history.
Moreover, the concept of Type III civilizations sparks reflection on the Fermi
Paradox, which remains a tantalizing enigma in the search for extraterrestrial
intelligence. Despite the vastness of the cosmos and the seemingly favorable
conditions for life to emerge, we have yet to encounter definitive evidence of
advanced civilizations beyond our own.
Various hypotheses have been proposed to address the Fermi Paradox,
offering potential explanations for the absence of observable extraterrestrial
civilizations. These theories range from technological limitations that may hinder
interstellar communication and travel to existential threats that may pose
insurmountable challenges to the emergence or longevity of advanced
societies.
Dark Forest
Expanding upon the evocative metaphor of the universe as a dark forest, we
delve deeper into the enigmatic realm of the cosmos and the profound
implications of the Dark Forest Theory. This haunting analogy paints a vivid
picture of the universe as a vast expanse of darkness, where civilizations exist
as hidden entities, wary of revealing themselves to potential predators lurking in
the cosmic shadows.
In this metaphorical forest, each civilization is akin to a creature navigating the
darkness, seeking to survive and thrive amidst the unknown dangers that lurk
beyond the light of their own stars. The silence of the universe, punctuated only
by the faint whispers of distant stars and galaxies, serves as a chilling reminder
of the precariousness of existence in the cosmos.
The Dark Forest Theory posits that civilizations may choose to remain silent
and hidden from one another, adopting a strategy of stealth and self-
preservation in the face of unknown threats. This eerie notion underscores the
inherent risks and challenges of interstellar communication, as civilizations
grapple with the uncertainty of encountering others who may possess hostile
intentions or pose existential risks.
The metaphor of the dark forest invites contemplation on the nature of cosmic
exploration and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It prompts us to
consider the possibility that the universe may be teeming with life yet shrouded
in silence as civilizations huddle in the shadows, guarding against the unknown.
The Great Filter
Expanding upon the notion of the Great Filter theory as a potential solution to
the Fermi Paradox, we embark on a journey into the realm of cosmic existential
risks and the profound implications they hold for the development and survival
of intelligent life in the universe. This theory presents a sobering perspective on
the potential fate of civilizations, suggesting that there may exist insurmountable
obstacles or barriers, collectively referred to as the "Great Filter," that impede
the emergence or longevity of intelligent life beyond a certain threshold.
The Great Filter theory posits two primary scenarios in which cataclysmic
events could serve as potential filters: one occurring before the emergence of
life (pre-biological filters) and the other manifesting after the emergence of life
(post-biological filters). These filters represent critical junctures in the
evolutionary trajectory of civilizations, where the odds of survival and
advancement are perilously slim.
Scenario I
Expanding upon Scenario I of the Great Filter theory, we confront the unsettling
prospect that the filter lies ahead of us, looming as an ominous barrier that
threatens the very existence of advanced civilizations. This sobering realization
forces us to confront the possibility of total extinction events that could wipe out
complex life, casting a shadow of uncertainty over our future as we continue to
advance technologically.
In Scenario I, civilizations that reach a certain level of advancement inevitably
encounter existential threats that pose a grave risk to their survival. These
threats may take various forms, including catastrophic natural disasters, global
pandemics, runaway climate change, or technological catastrophes with
unforeseen consequences. Regardless of their nature, these events have the
potential to trigger mass extinction events, eradicating complex life and bringing
civilizations to the brink of annihilation.
Scenario II
In contemplating the concept of the Great Filter within the context of Scenario II,
we find ourselves confronted with a nuanced perspective. Here, we stand on
the side of surpassing the filter; the emergence of complex life itself embodies
the filter, signifying the rarity and exceptional nature of life in the cosmos.
However, rather than succumbing to a pessimistic view, this perspective invites
us to adopt a more optimistic stance.
By acknowledging our existence as evidence of overcoming the filter, we are
compelled to consider the remarkable resilience and adaptability of life forms.
Our ability to navigate and triumph over the myriad challenges that could have
potentially snuffed out our existence is a testament to the ingenuity and
resourcefulness inherent in intelligent beings.
This viewpoint prompts us to delve deeper into the unique circumstances that
facilitated the flourishing of life on Earth. It beckons us to explore the intricacies
of our planet's environment, its geological and atmospheric conditions, and the
interplay of various factors that allowed life to take root and evolve into
complexity. Moreover, it sparks curiosity about the broader implications of these
conditions for the prevalence of life throughout the universe.
Newborn Humanity
The theory posits that within the vast expanse of the universe, humanity is but a
fledgling civilization, still in its infancy compared to the age of the cosmos. It
suggests that while there may be advanced extraterrestrial civilizations out
there, they might view us as primitive or not yet ready for meaningful contact.
This perspective implies that any attempts by advanced beings to communicate
with us may have been made in the past, but went unnoticed or unanswered
due to our limited technological development or lack of awareness.
Consequently, these civilizations might be patiently awaiting our evolution to a
level where we can comprehend and reciprocate their signals.
This theory offers a profoundly humbling insight into our cosmic significance,
positioning us as novices in a universe teeming with potentially ancient and
advanced life forms. It underscores the staggering scale of time and space,
suggesting that the brief span of human history is but a fraction of the immense
timeline of the universe.
Rare Earth
In the event that other hypotheses fail to adequately explain our apparent
isolation in the cosmos, we are left with the intriguing possibility that Earth is an
exceedingly rare gem in the vast expanse of the universe. This concept
proposes that we may be among the very few planets capable of nurturing and
sustaining life as we know it.
If this notion holds true, then we, the inhabitants of Earth, are more than just
mere observers of the cosmos; we are the torchbearers of life itself, destined to
spread across the stars and populate the universe. This perspective
emphasizes the profound uniqueness of our planet and the extraordinary
significance of our existence within the vastness of the cosmos.
Contemplating our rarity in the universe prompts us to reflect on the immense
responsibility entrusted to us as stewards of Earth. It underscores the critical
importance of preserving and protecting our planet, not only for our own sake
but also for the preservation of life itself. Moreover, it invites us to consider our
potential role in shaping the future of life in the universe.
As the sole known bearers of conscious life, we hold the potential to act as
custodians of the cosmic legacy, ensuring that the spark of life continues to
flourish and evolve across the galaxies. This idea inspires a sense of awe and
reverence for the preciousness of life on Earth and the vast possibilities that lie
ahead as we venture into the unknown realms of the cosmos.
Conclusion
The universe is vast beyond comprehension, and it seems likely that life exists
beyond our planet. As we continue to explore and expand our understanding of
the cosmos, the search for extraterrestrial life remains one of the most
tantalizing questions of our time.
References
DAVID N. SCHWARTZ. The Last Man Who Knew Everything: The Life and Times of Enrico
Fermi, Father of the Nuclear Age: Publisher Basic Books, 2017.
STEPHEN WEBB. If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?:
Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life:
Publisher Springer, 2015.
Carl Sagan. The Cosmic Connection An Extraterrestrial Perspective: Publisher Anchor
Press, 1973.
Cixin Liu. The Dark Forest: Publisher Tor Books, 2015.
Nick Bostrom. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies: Publisher Oxford University
Press, USA, 2016.
Peter D. Ward, Donald Brownlee. Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the
Universe: Publisher Copernicus, 2003.
Glossary
Light Year:
About 9.46 trillion kilometers, or about 300 billion meters per second.
