THEORY-BASED

EVALUATION
A theory-based evaluation is usually based on an explicit theory of change or logic model that explains the
theory of a development intervention. The evaluation is designed to test the theory to see if it holds true. If
it does, the task of the evaluator is to produce a plausible case, with evidence, that shows what has
changed at each level of the theory, and explores the linkages between those changes.

A theory-based evaluation is usually based on an explicit Key Elements of a Theory-based Evaluation

theory of change or logic model that explains the theory of
a development intervention or set of interventions.  They are designed to answer the question of what
Theories of change (or logic models) generally include a worked (by measuring or assessing the changes
brought about by a development intervention), but
chain of results from inputs, activities and outputs through
also why and how it worked (by examining the
to outcomes and impact, thereby showing the links processes that led to those changes).
between causes and effects. Theories of change may be
 They generally examine wider contributions to
very simple – such as the kind of logic model contained change, such as the actions of other interventions or
within a standard logical framework – or much more changes in the wider socio-economic environment.
complicated.
 They work with an explicit theory – a theory of
change or logic model – that underpins the
Theories of change or logic models are often represented
development intervention being evaluated.
by flowcharts, known as critical pathways, impact
 They are based on two distinct parts: a conceptual
pathways, causal maps or objectives trees. However,
part, which concentrates on developing the theory
theories of change might also be depicted as dimensions or of change or logic model and using it to guide the
domains of change, outcome maps, or any other kind of evaluation; and a second part that involves collecting
graphical representation. More sophisticated theories of evidence to establish whether and/or how an
change generally include additional features such as intervention produced the desired changes.
assumptions, risks, the influence of other actors and the
potential effects of the wider socio-economic environment.

A theory-based evaluation normally attempts to assess When to use theory-based

change at each stage of the theory to test the linkages evaluation
(assumptions) between different levels of change. Theory-based evaluations may be used alongside almost
Essentially, a theory-based evaluation sets out to test the any other type of evaluation. For example, a theory-based
theory to see if it holds true. If it does, the job of the evaluation often forms an important part of an impact
evaluator is to produce a plausible case, with evidence, that evaluation, a case-based evaluation or a realist evaluation.
shows what has changed, and explains how a development
intervention contributed to that change. A plausible case is Theory-based evaluations can be used with individual cases
defined as one that a ‘reasonable person would accept, (such as a single policy change) or with multiple cases, such
given the evidence’. as farmers receiving livelihoods support or organisations
receiving capacity development support. They can be used
Many methodologies for data collection and analysis in any sector and with any kind of work. In some senses, a
involve the use, adaptation or development of a theory of theory-based evaluation can be seen as the default
change. Some methodologies, such as process tracing or evaluation type. Most CSO evaluations are at the very least
contribution analysis, also involve the development of based around a logical framework or similar planning
alternative theories of change. These are then investigated methodology, even if they are not based on a more explicit
to test alternative theories of how any observed changes theory of change.
might have come about, other than through the
development intervention concerned. Theory-based evaluations can only be used when there is
some kind of predicted change to assess. They may not be
It could be argued that most evaluations that focus on appropriate very early on in a project or programme,
change are theory-based to at least some degree, as most before the project / programme has had time to contribute
look for predicted changes. However, a theory-based to changes at outcome or impact level. Equally, a theory-
evaluation is normally understood as an evaluation that based evaluation would not be appropriate when a project
works with an explicit and testable theory of change or or programme is genuinely exploratory – in other words
logic model. Some of the key features of a theory-based when the potential outcomes / impact are not known and
evaluation are contained in the box above (Stern 2015). cannot reasonably be estimated beforehand. In these cases
other types of evaluation may be more useful.
© INTRAC 2017
 Theory of Change for VBNK

How it works The links between the different boxes could then be
examined. For example, the evaluation could seek to assess
There is no set method for carrying out a theory-based whether support to individuals was genuinely supporting
evaluation. As with many other evaluations, the methods organisational development, or whether support provided
used depend on the nature of the intervention. For to organisations had helped enhance individual capacity,
example, if an intervention is concerned with improving and if so how. The evaluation might also seek to generate
crop yields or health outcomes then it might be appropriate evidence that showed whether and/or how enhanced
to carry out a large quantitative study designed to generate capacity at organisational and individual level had
statistically significant findings. Or if an intervention is contributed to the empowerment of communities. If the
concerned with capacity development then an theory of change was confirmed then a plausible argument
organisational assessment methodology could be used. with evidence could be developed and presented. If not,
the assumptions would need to be further investigated to
In general, however, a theory-based evaluation always
see why the theory had proved to be unreliable.
consists of three major components:

• the use, adaptation or development of a theory of

change or logic model to explicitly set out the Challenges
theory of the intervention; A theory-based evaluation can be carried out in most
• the collection of information at different levels of situations. The main challenge comes when a project or
the theory of change (or logic model) to see programme has no explicit theory of change or logic model,
whether or not, or how far, the desired changes and it is difficult or impossible to develop one as part of the
have occurred; and evaluation. This can only really happen when an
• an exploration of the links between changes at the intervention has been designed badly, or with no
different levels to test assumptions, and to consideration of the desired changes.
confirm or reject the theory linking the levels.
Another challenge may be where a project or programme
A fourth component is normally added, which covers the has an explicit theory of change or logic model, but where
collection of information on unexpected or negative the intervention has evolved since it was developed (White
changes influenced by the development intervention being 2009). In these cases it should be possible to update or
evaluated. adapt the theory as part of the evaluation.
This is illustrated using the theory of change in the diagram As is always the case – as well understood by physical
above. This very simple theory of change was developed by scientists – it is not possible to conclusively prove a theory,
VBNK, a Cambodian organisation that works in the field of although it is sometimes possible to disprove it. At best, a
capacity development. A theory-based evaluation based on theory-based evaluation may help provide a convincing and
this theory of change would seek to assess change at plausible case that shows what changes have occurred, and
different levels, including community, organisational and how a development intervention or interventions
individual level. This might be achieved through a variety of contributed to those changes. The theory will then be
methodologies such as participatory surveys in the assumed to hold true until or unless contradictory evidence
community, organisational assessment tools for comes to light, in which case it will either need to be
organisations, learning surveys for individuals, etc. The refined or abandoned.
evaluation would also seek to establish what kind of
support had been provided by VBNK.
© INTRAC 2017
Further reading and resources
Links to some of the other types of evaluation contained in this section of the M&E Universe can be found by clicking on the
links below. There are also links to papers on theory of change and logical frameworks, both of which may be used as the basis
for theory-based evaluation. Two methodologies that make extensive use of theories of change – process tracing and
contribution analysis – can also be accessed through the links below.

Case-based evaluation Developmental evaluation

Realist evaluation Impact evaluation

Theory of change The logical framework

Process tracing Contribution analysis

The Better Evaluation website (www.betterevaluation.org) contains the largest set of resources in the world covering evaluation
in the social development sector. The site offers step-by-step guidance for those managing or implementing evaluations.
Experienced evaluators or those with an interest in evaluation are recommended to go to that site and search through the
different materials.

References
 Stern, E (2015). Impact Evaluation: A guide for commissioners and managers. BOND, May 2015.
 VBNK (2009). Annual Impact Assessment Report. VBNK, September 2009
 White, H (2009). Theory-Based Impact Evaluation: Principles and practice. Working paper no. 3. International Initiative for
Impact Evaluation, June 2009.

Author(s): INTRAC is a not-for-profit organisation that builds the skills and knowledge of civil society
INTRAC organisations to be more effective in addressing poverty and inequality. Since 1992 INTRAC has
provided specialist support in monitoring and evaluation, working with people to develop their own
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based on understanding what works in different contexts.

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