PMT

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Pearson Edexcel Centre Number Candidate Number

Level 3 GCE
Further Mathematics
Advanced
Further Mathematics Option 1
Paper 3: Further Statistics 1
Further Mathematics Option 2
Paper 4: Further Statistics 1
Sample Assessment Material for first teaching September 2017 Paper Reference
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 9FM0/3B
9FM0/4B

You must have: Total Marks

Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables, calculator

Candidates may use any calculator permitted by Pearson regulations.

Calculators must not have the facility for algebraic manipulation,
differentiation and integration, or have retrievable mathematical
formulae stored in them.
Instructions
•• Use black ink or ball-point pen.
If pencil is used for diagrams/sketches/graphs it must be dark (HB or B).
• centre
Fill in the boxes at the top of this page with your name,
number and candidate number.
• clearly labelled.
Answer all questions and ensure that your answers to parts of questions are

• Answer the questions in the spaces provided

– there may be more space than you need.
• You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.
• Answers should be given to three significant figures unless otherwise stated.
Information
•• AThere
booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
are 7 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
• – use this asfora guide
The marks each question are shown in brackets
as to how much time to spend on each question.
Advice
•• Read each question carefully before you start to answer it.
Try to answer every question.
• Check your answers if you have time at the end. Turn over

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Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 145

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Answer ALL questions. Write your answers in the spaces provided.

1. Bacteria are randomly distributed in a river at a rate of 5 per litre of water. A new factory

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opens and a scientist claims it is polluting the river with bacteria. He takes a sample of
0.5 litres of water from the river near the factory and finds that it contains 7 bacteria.
Stating your hypotheses clearly test, at the 5% level of significance, whether there is
evidence that the level of pollution has increased.
(5)
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146 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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(Total for Question 1 is 5 marks)

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*S54441A0323*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 147
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2. A call centre routes incoming telephone calls to agents who have specialist knowledge to
deal with the call. The probability of a caller, chosen at random, being connected to the
wrong agent is p.

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The probability of at least 1 call in 5 consecutive calls being connected to the wrong
agent is 0.049
The call centre receives 1000 calls each day.
(a) Find the mean and variance of the number of wrongly connected calls a day.
(7)
(b) Use a Poisson approximation to find, to 3 decimal places, the probability that more
than 6 calls each day are connected to the wrong agent.
(2)
(c) Explain why the approximation used in part (b) is valid.
(2)
The probability that more than 6 calls each day are connected to the wrong agent using
the binomial distribution is 0.8711 to 4 decimal places.

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(d) Comment on the accuracy of your answer in part (b).
(1)
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148 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 149
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150 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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(Total for Question 2 is 12 marks)

7
*S54441A0723*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 151
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3. Bags of £1 coins are paid into a bank. Each bag contains 20 coins.
The bank manager believes that 5% of the £1 coins paid into the bank are fakes.

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He decides to use the distribution X ~ B (20, 0.05) to model the random variable X, the
number of fake £1 coins in each bag.
The bank manager checks a random sample of 150 bags of £1 coins and records the
number of fake coins found in each bag. His results are summarised in Table 1. He then
calculates some of the expected frequencies, correct to 1 decimal place.

Number of fake coins in each bag 0 1 2 3 4 or more

Observed frequency 43 62 26 13 6
Expected frequency 53.8 56.6 8.9

Table 1
(a) Carry out a hypothesis test, at the 5% significance level, to see if the data supports
the bank manager’s statistical model. State your hypotheses clearly.
(10)

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The assistant manager thinks that a binomial distribution is a good model but
suggests that the proportion of fake coins is higher than 5%. She calculates the
actual proportion of fake coins in the sample and uses this value to carry out a new
hypothesis test on the data. Her expected frequencies are shown in Table 2.

Number of fake coins in each bag 0 1 2 3 4 or more

Observed frequency 43 62 26 13 6
Expected frequency 44.5 55.7 33.2 12.5 4.1

Table 2
(b) Explain why there are 2 degrees of freedom in this case.
(2)
(c) Given that she obtains a χ2 test statistic of 2.67, test the assistant manager’s
hypothesis that the binomial distribution is a good model for the number of fake coins
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in each bag. Use a 5% level of significance and state your hypotheses clearly.
(2)
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*S54441A0823*
152 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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*S54441A0923*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 153
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*S54441A01023*
154 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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(Total for Question 3 is 14 marks)

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*S54441A01123*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 155
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4. A random sample of 100 observations is taken from a Poisson distribution with mean 2.3
Estimate the probability that the mean of the sample is greater than 2.5

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(4)
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*S54441A01223*
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(Total for Question 4 is 4 marks)

13
*S54441A01323*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 157
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5. The probability of Richard winning a prize in a game at the fair is 0.15

Richard plays a number of games.

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(a) Find the probability of Richard winning his second prize on his 8th game,
(2)
(b) State two assumptions that have to be made, for the model used in part (a) to be valid.
(2)
Mary plays the same game, but has a different probability of winning a prize. She plays
until she has won r prizes. The random variable G represents the total number of games
Mary plays.
(c) Given that the mean and standard deviation of G are 18 and 6 respectively, determine
whether Richard or Mary has the greater probability of winning a prize in a game.
(4)
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*S54441A01423*
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(Total for Question 5 is 8 marks)

15
*S54441A01523*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 159
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6. The probability generating function of the discrete random variable X is given by

GX (t) = k (3 + t + 2t 2)2

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1
(a) Show that k=
36 (2)
(b) Find P(X = 3)
(2)
29
(c) Show that Var(X) =
18 (8)
(d) Find the probability generating function of 2 X + 1
(2)
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*S54441A01623*
160 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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*S54441A01723*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 161
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*S54441A01823*
162 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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(Total for Question 6 is 14 marks)

19
*S54441A01923*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 163
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1
7. Sam and Tessa are testing a spinner to see if the probability, p, of it landing on red is less than .
They both use a 10% significance level. 5

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Sam decides to spin the spinner 20 times and record the number of times it lands on red.
(a) Find the critical region for Sam’s test.
(2)
(b) Write down the size of Sam’s test.
(1)
Tessa decides to spin the spinner until it lands on red and she records the number of spins.
(c) Find the critical region for Tessa’s test.
(6)
(d) Find the size of Tessa’s test.
(1)
(e) (i) Show that the power function for Sam’s test is given by

(1 − p)19 (1 + 19p)

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(ii) Find the power function for Tessa’s test.
(4)
(f) With reference to parts (b), (d) and (e), state, giving your reasons, whether you would
recommend Sam’s test or Tessa’s test when p = 0.15
(4)
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*S54441A02023*
164 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
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*S54441A02123*
Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 165
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166 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics
Sample Assessment Materials – Issue 1 – July 2017 © Pearson Education Limited 2017
 PMT

Question 7 continued
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(Total for Question 7 is 18 marks)

TOTAL FOR PAPER IS 75 MARKS

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Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Further Mathematics 167
Sample Assessment Materials – Issue 1 – July 2017 © Pearson Education Limited 2017