Our

Changing
Planet
Geography for the Core of the
International Baccalaureate
Diploma Geography course

Stephen Codrington

✭
Solid Star Press
Hong Kong
 Our Changing Planet

Copyright © 2020 Stephen Codrington

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted in any
form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, scanning, recording or
any information storage and retrieval system without prior written permission from the author.
Enquiries, including permission to reproduce the author’s photographs, should be directed
directly to the author by e-mail at [email protected]

2nd edition 2020

This e-book is an adaptation of the hard copy book ISBN 978 0 6480210 5 6

Further details are provided at the book’s support website www.planetgeographybooks.com

World Map showing the names of countries, Robinson Projection. Public domain map developed
with PAT software. Copyright © 2010, 2013 by Ian Macky.

North Macedonia

Czechia

i
tin
wa
Es

The author and publisher are grateful for permission to reproduce copyright material. Where
copyright material has been reproduced, this is acknowledged beside the illustration. Every
effort has been made to trace all holders of copyrights, but where this has not been possible the
publisher will be pleased to make any necessary arrangements at the first opportunity.

Cover photographs show Pyongyang, North Korea.

 Photo
Acknowledgements

Author: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, 1.16. 1.17, 1.18, 1.19, 1.26, 1.27, 1.28, 1.29, 1.30, 1.31, 1.32,
1.33, 1.35, 1.37, 1.38, 1.41, 1.43, 1.44, 1.45, 1.47, 1.48, 1.49, 1.50, 1.51, 1.52, 1.53, 1.54, 1.55, 1.56, 1.57, 1.58, 1.59, 1.60, 1.61,
1.62, 1.63, 1.64, 1.65, 1.66, 1.67, 1.68, 1.69, 1.70, 1.71, 1.72, 1.73, 1.74, 1.77, 1.78, 1.79, 1.82, 1.83, 1.84, 1.85, 1.86, 1.88, 1.90,
1.91, 1.92, 1.93, 1.94, 1.95, 2.1, 2.4, 2.6, 2.13, 2.14, 2.15, 2.16, 2.17, 2.18, 2.20, 2.21, 2.23, 2.24, 2.27, 2.29, 2.33, 2.34, 2.35,
2.36, 2.37, 2.38, 2.39, 2.40, 2.41, 2.42, 2.43, 2.44, 2.45, 2.46, 2.47, 2.48, 2.49, 2.50, 2.51, 2.54, 2.55, 2.56, 2.57, 2.58, 2.59,
2.60, 2.61, 2.62, 2.63, 2.64, 2.65, 2.66, 2.67, 2.68, 2.69, 2.70, 2.71, 2.72, 2.73, 2.74, 2.75, 2.76, 2.82, 2.83, 2.84, 2.85, 2.86,
2.87, 2.88, 2.90, 2.91, 2.92, 3.1, 3.3, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, 3.12, 3.13, 3.14, 3.15, 3.16, 3.17, 3.19, 3.20, 3.21, 3.23, 3.24, 3.27, 3.28,
3.29, 3.30, 3.35, 3.36, 3.39, 3.42, 3.43, 3.44, 3.45, 3.46, 3.47, 3.49, 3.54, 3.56, 4.1, 4.3, 4.5, 4.8, 4.10, 4.13, 4.14, 4.15, 4.17,
4.18, 4.19, 4.20, 4.21, 4.23, 4.25, 4.26, 4.27, 4.28, 4.29, 4.32, 4.33, 4.35, 4.36, 5.1, 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, 5.8, 5.9, 5.10, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14,
5.15, 5.17, 5.18, 5.20, 5.21, 5.22, 5.23, 5.24, 5.25, 5.26, 5.27, 5.31, 5.32, 5.34, 5.35, 5.37, 5.39, 5.40, 5.41, 5.43, 5.44, 5.45, 5.46,
5.47, 5.48, 5.49, 5.52, 5.53, 5.54, 6.1, 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, 6.13, 6.14, 6.17, 6.18, 6.19, 6.20, 6.21, 6.22, 6.23, 6.24, 6.25, 6.26,
6.27, 6.28, 6.29, 6.30, 6.31, 6.32, 6.33, 6.34, 6.36, 6.37, 6.38, 6.40, 6.41, 6.42, 6.43, 6.44, 6.45, 6.46, 6.47, 6.48, 6.49,
6.51, 6.53, 6.56, 6.58, 6.59, 6.60, 6.61, 6.62, 6.63, 6.66, 6.67, 6.68, 6.69, 6.70, 6.71, 6.72, 6.73, 6.74, 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.7,
7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11, 7.12, 7.14, 7.17, 7.18, 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.25, 7.28, 7.31, 7.37, 7.38, 7.39, 7.42, 7.43, 7.45, 7.49, 7.53, 7.57, 7.58,
7.60, 7.61, 7.62, 7.63, 7.64, 7.65, 7.66, 7.67, 7.68, 7.69, 7.70, 7.71, 7.72, 8.1, 8.3, 8.8, 8.9, 8.10, 8.11, 8.12, 8.14, 8.15, 8.16,
8.17, 8.18, 8.21, 8.22, 8.25, 8.27, 8.28, 8.29, 8.31, 8.32, 8.33, 8.34, 8.35, 8.37, 8.38, 8.39, 8.40, 8.45, 8.46, 8.48, 8.49, 8.50,
8.51, 8.52, 8.53, 8.54, 8.55, 8.56, 8.57, 8.58, 8.59, 8.60, 8.61, 8.65, 8.67, 9.1, 9.2, 9.4, 9.5, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, 9.10, 9.11, 9.12,
9.13, 9.14, 9.15, 9.16, 9.17, 9.19, 9.20, 9.21, 9.22, 9.23, 9.24, 9.26, 9.28, 9.29, 9.30, 9.31, 9.32, 9.33, 9.34, 9.35, 9.36, 9.37,
9.38, 9.39, 9.40, 9.41, 9.42, 9.43, 9.44, 9.45, 9.46, 9.50, 9.51, and all section title pages.
AFAD Turkey: 2.79. Agbogbloshie Makerspace Platform: 8.69. Don Becker/USGS: 5.3. © European Union 2016
– European Parliament: 2.80, 2.81. Lantus: 8.68. Louisiana State University/LSU AgCenter: 5.42. NASA/SDO/
AIA/HMI/Goddard Space Flight Center: 4.12. National Parks Service, US Department of the Interior: 5.6.
S Rae: 5.36. Veliki Kishki/Fayniphoto: 5.33

4
 Contents
SECTION 1 CHANGING POPULATION 8

Chapter 1 Patterns of population and economic development 9

Chapter 2 Changing populations and places 57

Chapter 3 Challenges and opportunities 105

SECTION 2 CLIMATE CHANGE - VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE 133

Chapter 4 Causes of global climate change 134

Chapter 5 Consequences of global climate change 156

Chapter 6 Responding to climate change 188

SECTION 3 GLOBAL RESOURCE CONSUMPTION AND SECURITY 232

Chapter 7 Global trends in consumption 233

Chapter 8 Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption 274

Chapter 9 Resource stewardship 304

Index 334

5
 The Author
Dr Stephen Codrington has a Ph.D. in Geography, and has taught the subject in several countries at both
the high school and university level. He is the author or co-author of 61 books, mainly books that focus on
his life-long passion for Geography.

Following his highly successful career as a teacher of Geography and Theory of Knowledge, including
serving as the Head of five International Baccalaureate (IB) schools in four countries over 25 years, he is
now Director of School Governance and Leadership Deleopment, and Senior Lecturer in Education, at
Alphacrucis Coolege in Sydney, Australia.

Stephen is a former President of both the Geographical Society of New South Wales and the Geography
Teachers’ Association of New South Wales (twice). He edited Geography Bulletin, the journal of the
Geography Teachers’ Association of New South Wales for seven years, and is now a Councillor and
Treasurer of the Geographical Society of New South Wales. He has taught in schools in the United
Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, South Africa, Australia and the United States.

Stephen has been honoured with election as a Fellow of the Australian College of Education, the Royal
Geographical Society (UK), the International Biographical Association, and the Geographical Society of
NSW, where has also been granted Honorary Life Membership. He was appointed to the role of IB
Ambassador in 2014. He is a former Chairman of HICES (Heads of Independent Co-educational Schools).
He was named International Man of the Year (Education) by the International Biographical Centre in
Cambridge (England) in 1995-96. Stephen’s work has taken him to 160 countries, and he has been listed in
Who’s Who in Australia every year since 2003.

From 1996 to 2001 he served as Deputy Chief Examiner in Geography for the IB Diploma Program, setting
and marking examination papers, assisting with curriculum development, and leading many teachers’
workshops.

He maintains a personal website at www.stephencodrington.com that contains links to travel diaries and
other items of geographical interest.

6
 Preface
Our Changing Planet explores the optional themes of the International Baccalaureate Diploma Program
(IBDP) Geography course. Higher Level students study three of these themes, while Standard Level
students study two:
• Freshwater;
• Oceans and coastal margins;
• Extreme environments;
• Geophysical hazards;
• Leisure, sport and tourism;
• Food and health;
• Urban environments.

One of the defining characteristics of the International Baccalaureate Diploma Program is its emphasis on
developing international citizenship and global understanding. Surely no subject in the IBDP does this
more effectively than Geography. As The Guardian editorial stated in August 2015:
“Geography is a subject for our times. It is inherently multidisciplinary in a world that increasingly
values people who have the skills needed to work across the physical and social sciences. Geographers
get to learn data analysis, and to read Robert Macfarlane. They learn geographic information systems.
They can turn maps from a two-dimensional representation of a country’s physical contours into a
tool that illustrates social attributes or attitudes: not just where people live, but how, what they think
and how they vote. They learn about the physics of climate change, or the interaction of weather
events and flood risk, or the way people’s behaviour is influenced by the space around them. All
these are not just intrinsically interesting and valuable. They also encourage ways of seeing and
thinking that make geographers eminently employable”.

Our Changing Planet is not designed to be a textbook in the traditional sense of one reference that covers
everything for a course. In today’s world of the internet, there are many excellent resources to extend a
foundational textbook. Thus, this book is intended to serve as just one of many resources for IBDP
Geography students.

This book had its origins in a single volume called Planet Geography which was the first resource book
written in English for IBDP Geography. Initially published in 2002, Planet Geography saw seven editions,
and in some ways, this book and its companion volumes represent a significant update of Planet Geography.

Our Changing Planet is deliberately richly illustrated with photographs, maps and diagrams. This is
important because we know now that people absorb data from a variety of sources, and many students
gain information more easily from pictures and diagrams than the written word. Colour photographs
have been used extensively to illustrate the material, with almost every photograph in the book was taken
by me while undertaking geographical fieldwork. Case studies are an integral part of the book, and serve
not as ‘add-ons’, but as a means of developing concepts in a way that relates effectively to the real world.
Each chapter in the book is designed to cover six to eight hours of teaching time.

The subject of Geography has given me enormous pleasure over the years, and this book is my attempt to
share some of the insights of this great subject with another generation of learners. This book, like its
companion volumes, is my way of saying ‘thank you’ to the thousands of people with whom I have lived
and worked over the years in the field of Geography.

My aspiration for the readers of this book is both simple and important – I sincerely hope that every reader
of this book will acquire the knowledge and wisdom to become an effective steward of our changing
planet, committed to ensuring its healthy survival and vibrant flourishing.

7
 Section 1

Changing
population

A young mother with her baby in Antsirabe, Madagascar.

Half Madagascar’s population is younger than 16 years.

8
 Chapter
1 Patterns of population and
economic development

1.1 Although Uganda’s overall population density is 213 people per square kilometre, its cities have much higer densities, leading to
housing shortages, congestion and environmental challenges. This view shows the central area of Kampala, Uganda’s capital city.

Population distribution Physical and human factors

affecting population distribution at
Geography is the study of place. Geography is
unique among areas of study because it integrates the global scale
the physical and human elements of our These three questions can be applied to most facets
environment, helping us understand their of geography, and certainly to the study of
interrelationships. As our understanding of the population geography. The term population
environment and its importance to humans grows, distribution describes the way people are spread
aspects of geography become increasingly complex, across the surface of the earth. It is usually
at least in some specialist areas studied at measured in persons per square kilometre.
university. However, at its most basic level,
The world’s population distribution is uneven, and
geography focuses on three key questions:
it is changing over time. The most densely
• where is it?
populated country or territory in the world is
• why is it there?
Macau, a tiny 30 square kilometre Special Economic
• what are the consequences?
9
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.2 With very little open space, highly urbanised Macau is the 1.3 Greenland is the world’s most sparsely populated country in
most densely populated country or territory in the world. the world. This view of the settlement of Qaqortoq (population
3,200 people) is one of Greenland’s most densely settled areas.
Region of China that was a Portuguese colony from
1557 to 1999. It population density is 19,350 per
square kilometre. At the other extreme, the world’s
most sparsely populated country is Greenland. Its
population density is just 0.026 people per square
kilometre, or to express this in another way,
Greenland has 38.5 square kilometres of land per
person. Unfortunately for Greenland’s residents,
most of that land is inaccessible because it lies
under a sheet of ice that is generally about two
kilometres in thickness.

There are approximately 7.7 billion people in the

world today. The land area of the world is almost
130 million square kilometres. Knowing these two
1.4 Most of Greenland is unpopulated because it is completely
facts enables us to calculate that the average
inhospitable, being covered in a thick ice sheet that makes
density of the world’s population would be about settlement and food cultivation impossible.
60 people per square kilometre if they were evenly

Persons per
square kilometre

<2

2 - 10

11 - 40

41 - 100

101 - 500

500+

1.5 World distribution of population, shown as national averages in persons per square kilometre.

10
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

Persons per
square kilometre

<2

2 - 10

11 - 40

41 - 100

101 - 500

500+

1.6 World distribution of population. Population density is shown as persons per square kilometre.

distributed. This means that every man, woman case of figure 1.5, the shadings shown are national
and child on earth has an average of almost two averages, but population is seldom distributed
hectares of land, or more precisely, an area 130 evenly throughout an entire country.
metres by 130 metres.
In order to understand the true distribution of the
Of course, average figures such as these are not world’s population, it is necessary to know
very useful, because the world’s population is not something about the nature of individual countries.
distributed evenly. About 50% of the world’s For example, many countries have topographic and
population live on just 5% of the land. climatic barriers to settlement over much of their
Furthermore, 75% of the world’s people live in just land areas, resulting in uneven distributions of
two continents (Asia and Europe), while other people. In the case of Greenland, population is
continents such as Australia and Antarctica and restricted to a few isolated settlements around the
almost empty by comparison. coastline that are not covered by the ice sheet,
where some fertile soil can be found to grow crops
Population is also unevenly distributed by latitude.
or where there is a harbour to accommodate fishing
Less than 10% of the world’s population live in the
vessels.
southern hemisphere, while 78% live in the
northern hemisphere in a band between 20˚N and Most countries of the world have an uneven
60˚N. Altitude is also a significant factor, with 85% distribution of population within their borders
of the world’s population living between sea level reflecting the availability of water and good soils.
and 500 metres, and 56% living at altitudes lower China has high mountainous areas in the south-
than 200 metres. west, deserts in the north-west and very cold areas
in the north-east, all of which combine to
Figure 1.5 shows the distribution of the world’s
concentrate population in the east and south-east.
population, expressed as average population
Egypt has a narrow strip of well-watered land
densities per country. When we study this map,
along the Nile River, and most of the country’s
and indeed any map showing national averages, it
population is concentrated along that strip. Most of
is important to remember its limitations. In the

11
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Table 1.1 hand, areas with very low population density
Average population density, selected regions. include Greenland, Iceland, Canada, the Amazon
Population density Basin of Brazil, the arid regions of Africa (the
Region (persons per square kilometre) Sahara, Sahel and Namib Deserts), Scandinavia,
eastern Russia, Mongolia, the Tibetan Plateau, and
1961 2018
most of Australia.
Arab countries 7 37
Figures 1.5 and 1.6 are choropleth maps, which
Caribbean small states 11 18
means they use shadings or colour to represent
Central Europe and Baltics 83 93 data. Another way to show distribution and
East Asia and the Pacific 43 95 density of population is in a table of statistics such
Euro zone 101 128 as table 1.1. Presenting data in tabular form has
Europe and Central Asia 25 33 some benefits as well as some shortcomings
compared with choropleth maps. Benefits include:
European Union 98 121

Fragile and conflict zones 8 40 • more precise data can be shown, as statistics are
Heavily indebted poor countries 8 45
not grouped

Latin America and Caribbean 11 32 • aggregated data can be shown for broad regions,
Least developed countries 12 57 some of which overlap
Middle East & North Africa 10 40 • changes over time can be shown; to do this on a
North America 11 20 map would either require several maps or
showing incremental data without absolute
OECD members 23 38
values.
Other small states 5 15

Pacific island small states 14 38 Shortcomings of tables compared with choropleth

maps include:
Small states 6 16

South Asia 122 380 • patterns and geographical distributions are

Sub-Saharan Africa 10 51
obscured

High income countries 22 34 • showing detail within countries (as in figure 1.6)
Low and middle income countries 24 69 would require a huge, complex table
Low income countries 12 52 • it is necessary to know place names and the
Lower middle income countries 44 150 definitions of categories (such as ‘lower middle
Middle income countries 26 72
income countries’) to make the most of
information presented.
Upper middle income countries 20 45

WORLD 24 60 The global distribution of population is not a

Sources: World Bank, IBRD, IDA data. random spread. It can be explained by a
combination of physical and human factors.
Australia is water-deficient, so its population is
concentrated in coastal areas, mainly in the south- Physical factors
east of the continent. On the other hand, some Landforms: Areas with high population densities
countries such as the Netherlands, Bangladesh and tend to be broad, flat plains in lowland areas (such
Macau have almost nowhere that is unsettled. as the North China Plain, Bangladesh and the
Figure 1.6 shows a more precise distribution of the Netherlands), fertile river valleys (such as the
world’s population using the same categories as Ganges River in India, the Chao Phraya in
figure 1.5. This map shows that there are Thailand, the Mekong River in Vietnam, or the Nile
concentrations of high population density in River in Egypt), or volcanic areas with rich soils
eastern China, Japan, India, western Europe and (such as the island of Java in Indonesia). Areas
the eastern part of the United States. On the other with low population densities tend to be steep,

12
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
rugged mountains where soils are thin and air
pressure is low (such as the Andes Mountains of
South America) or high plateaux (such as Tibet).

Climate: People are attracted to temperate areas

with adequate, evenly distributed rainfall and a
lengthy growing season for crops (such as western
Europe) and to monsoonal climates (such as south-
east Asia). On the other hand, people avoid areas
with extreme climates, such as areas that are very
dry (such as the Sahara Desert), very cold (such as
northern Canada and Greenland), very wet with
high humidity (such as the Amazon Basin or the
lowlands of New Guinea), or which have irregular
1.7 Fertile soils and abundant, reliable rainfall has led to a high
rainfall or long droughts (such as the Sahel region population density in this rice-growing area, west of Jakarta on
of Africa). the island of Java, Indonesia.

Soils: From the early days of human farming,

people have been attracted to areas with rich, fertile
soils, which are of vital importance to ensuring a
reliable supply of food. Areas with rich, humus-
filled soils have high population densities (such as
areas of western Europe). Other areas with high
population densities include places with silt
deposited by rivers in flood, with in valleys (such
as Yangtze River in China, the Ganges River in
India or the Nile River in Egypt), or the deltas of
large rivers (such as the Ganges in Bangladesh or
the Nile in Egypt). Areas with soils that make
cultivation difficult usually have sparse
populations. Soils may be unsuitable for 1.8 Steep, mountainous areas usually have very little soil,
cultivation because they are frozen (the permafrost making settlement difficult and cultivation impossible.
Therefore, areas such as the Rocky Mountains of the north-
soils of Siberia), they are leached and therefore low
western USA, shown here, have a low population density.
in minerals and nutrients (rainforest soils in the
Amazon Basin of Brazil or the Congo River in areas with sparse vegetation due to aridity (such as
central Africa), they are thin and poorly developed the Arabian peninsula, central Asia and Mongolia).
(mountainous areas of the Himalayas in Asia and
Water: A reliable water supply is essential for
the Rocky Mountains of North America), or they
human survival, and people are attracted to areas
are heavily degraded or eroded as a result of over-
where the availability of water is sufficient without
grazing or deforestation (such as the Sahel region of
being excessive. Areas with high population
Africa).
include places with reliable, evenly distributed
Vegetation: Higher population densities are found rainfall (such as western Europe and north-eastern
in areas with extensive grasslands, such as East United States) and areas with reliable, seasonal
Africa and south-western Russia, than in areas monsoonal rainfall (such as India and south-east
where the vegetation makes cultivation and Asia). Areas with low or erratic rainfall have sparse
settlement difficult. Areas with sparse populations population densities, some examples being the
include dense rainforests (such as the Congo Basin Sahara Desert and Sahel region of Africa, the
in Africa and the Amazon Basin in Brazil), interior of Australia and the deserts of southern and
coniferous forests (such as eastern Russia), and south-western Africa.

13
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.9 With an average population density of 2 people per square 1.10 With an average population density of 7,830 people per
kilometre, Mongolia is one of the world’s most sparsely square kilometre, Singapore is one of the world’s most densely
populated countries. One reason for this is the sparse populated countries. A significant reason for this is the country’s
vegetation across most of the country, caused by aridity. In this communication links, especially its large port which has served
view between Uujim and Ulgii, in the far west of Mongolia, as a trading hub for several hundred years.
nomadic horse herders have established an encampment of
gers (or yurts) in a rare area of green grass beside a small river, Sahara Desert, northern Canada and the Tibetan
surrounded by arid hills and plains. Plateau.

Pests and diseases: People avoid areas where there Manufacturing: Areas where manufacturing
are dangerous pests and diseases. Therefore, places industry has been established for many decades, or
such as the lowlands of Papua New Guinea and even centuries, usually have high population
parts of central Africa have sparse population densities. Some examples of densely populated
densities because of malaria. manufacturing regions include the Ruhr Basin of
Germany, the Kanto Plain of Japan, north-east
Natural resources: People are attracted to areas
China (also known as Manchuria), and the north-
with major concentrations of minerals or energy
east of the United States.
resources, such as the Pittsburgh region of the USA,
South Wales in the UK, and the Ruhr basin of Communications: Areas where it is physically easy
Germany. On the other hand, places with few and financially viable to construct communications
natural resources may have quite high population infrastructure, such as ports, canals, roads, railways
densities as they manage to obtain resources from and airports, attract people and therefore tend to
elsewhere, some examples being the Netherlands, have high population densities. Examples of such
Japan and Taiwan. Furthermore, some places with areas include the United Kingdom, Singapore,
abundant natural resources may have sparse Hong Kong, south-eastern Japan and the
population densities, either because the resources Netherlands. On the other hand, population
can be obtained with very few people (such as oil in density is sparse in areas where transport and
Algeria, Iran or Saudi Arabia), or because the communications are difficult, such as in
resources have not been developed (such as mountainous areas (the Altiplano of Bolivia and the
minerals in Eritrea or the Russian Far East). Tibetan Plateau of China), deserts (the Sahara
Desert of Africa and central Australia), and densely
Human factors forested areas (such as Siberia in Russia or northern
Agriculture: Areas which are productive for Canada).
cropping or livestock raising tend to have high Political factors: Government policies and
population densities, some examples being eastern decisions can cause areas to become either more
China, northern India and eastern Europe. densely population or less densely populated.
Conversely, areas where farming is difficult, Areas can become more densely settled when
perhaps because of climate, landforms or soils, have governments decide to develop new areas (such as
sparse populations, with some examples being the
mining settlements in the Russian Far East,

14
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
transmigration settlements in West Papua, 11. Briefly describe the human factors that cause some areas of
Indonesia, or pioneer lands in Israel), or create new the world to have a low population density.
cities such as Shenzhen in China, Brasilia in Brazil, 12. Are physical factors or human factors more significant in
Yamoussoukro in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and influencing population density? Give reasons and
Naypyidaw in Myanmar (Burma). Conversely, examples to support your answer.
areas that do not receive adequate investment are
often sparsely populated or become depopulated,
examples being parts of the Russian Far East and
Economic Development
declining manufacturing areas in Eastern Europe. Terminology
Population densities can also become sparser over
time due to depopulation arising from political The level of a country’s economic development is a
conflict, and some examples of this include Syria, real issue that affects people very powerfully. The
Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. level of development in the country where a person
happens to have been born affects their quality of
When we analyse the factors affecting global life, and in many cases, even the number of years
population distribution, we can conclude that that their life is likely to last. It is not surprising
physical factors are more significant than human that developing the economy is a prime aim of
factors. However, if we focus on a smaller, more many countries in the world.
local or regional scale, human factors are likely to
become far more significant.

QUESTION BANK 1A
1. What is meant by the terms ‘physical environment’ and
‘human environment’?

2. Describe the extremes of population density in the world,

and relate these to the world’s average population density.

3. In about 250 words, describe the pattern of global

population density, making specific mention of areas that
have dense concentrations of people and areas that have
very sparse population densities. In your answer, mention
the names of continents and the names of some countries.

4. What are the effects of latitude and altitude on population 1.11 Roadside signs in Monrovia, Liberia’s capital city, promote
the importance of economic development for the nation.
density?

5. Write down the advantages and disadvantages of choropleth

One of the problems in studying development is
maps to show density. Distinguish between maps that that different books and internet resources use
show national average figures and maps that show fine different terminology when describing it. It is
detail, and consider both clarity and depth of information. important to clarify and understand the different
terms that are used so ambiguity is avoided.
6. What are the advantages and disadvantages of maps versus
tables to show geographical distributions? In the 1950s and 1960s, when the issue of
7. What is the difference between the terms ‘distribution’ and
development first began to be studied seriously, the
‘density’? poorer countries of the world were labelled
backward or undeveloped. These labels were
8. Briefly describe the physical factors that cause some areas of inaccurate and gave a false impression, however.
the world to have a high population density.
All countries of the world have developed in some
9. Briefly describe the human factors that cause some areas of way, and therefore they cannot accurately be
the world to have a high population density. labelled ‘undeveloped’. Some nations have chosen
10. Briefly describe the physical factors that cause some areas of to emphasise cultural development rather than
the world to have a low population density. economic development, and indeed many of these
countries would claim to be more ‘culturally
developed’ than many of the world’s richer nations.

15
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
States and the communist Soviet Union. The idea
behind the label was that the rich, capitalist
countries were the ‘First World’, the developed
socialist nations were the ‘Second World’, while the
remaining poor countries of the world were the
‘Third World’, whether they are capitalist or
communist. Once again, people in the poorer
countries objected to this label, claiming that it
implied there was a race to develop and that they
were being given last place in the race. A variation
of this theme was the label the Two-Thirds World,
which was inspired by the fact that the poorer
countries contain about two-thirds of the world’s
1.12 Although Myanmar is a very poor country in economic population. However, this label never became
terms, it is remarkably rich culturally. Therefore, it could not widely used.
accurately be labelled ‘undeveloped’. This view shows part of
the Buddhist Shwe Dagon Pagoda complex in Yangon. Other labels have also been suggested. One
attempt to express the characteristics of the poorer
To overcome this inaccuracy, the label
countries more positively was to call them the
‘undeveloped’ was replaced by underdeveloped.
Human Resource Rich Countries. This label
This term implied that at least some development
emphasised that poorer countries have a great asset
had occurred, even if this was not as much as had
occurred in some richer nations. However, this in their human resources (large populations), even
term caused offence to many people in the poorer if they have little machinery. Although this label
countries, because it was felt the term implied they had a positive intent and was not insulting or
were inferior in some way. Therefore, this term demeaning, it was too long to become widely used.
came to be replaced by a new term – less Another ‘neutral’ label that became popular during
developed countries. This term was meant to the 1980s was the South to refer to the poorer, less
convey the idea that these countries had certainly developed countries, and the North to refer to the
developed, although not so much as the ‘more richer, more developed countries. These labels
developed countries’. indicated that in general, the northern hemisphere
was a world of wealth, consumption,
Many people in poorer countries still felt that this
term failed to address their concerns, so they came industrialisation and comfort, while the southern
to be known as the developing countries. The hemisphere was a world of poverty, poor nutrition
thinking behind this label was that although they and disadvantage. The labels tried to point out that
were poorer than other countries, they were in an all countries, rich and poor, share the same world,
active process of ‘developing’ their countries and are just in different facets (north and south) of
economically. The term still proved unsatisfactory that one world.
for many people, however, as it seemed to imply Geographers were quick to point out the problems
that if the poorer countries worked hard enough, with these labels. Not all the richer countries were
then one day they might be able to emerge just like
one of the ‘developed’ countries. In other words,
the term implied that there was only one pathway
to development, and that these countries were
further back along that pathway.

Other labels have also been proposed and tried to

overcome these concerns. In the 1960s to the 1990s,
it was common to use the term the Third World.
The term arose during the Cold War period of
tensions and rivalry between the capitalist United 1.13 The ‘North’ and the ‘South’, as commonly defined by the
Brandt Line.

16
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
situated in the northern hemisphere, and despite development that is being considered, not cultural,
their location, Australia and New Zealand were human or social development. However, the labels
classified as ‘the North’. Similarly, poorer nations are also criticised for implying that the categories
spread far to the north. For example, Turkey are fixed, and that once a country is an LEDC, it
extends as far north of the equator as Tasmania is to will always remain so.
the south of it, while China and Mongolia extend
Students should recognise that all these terms mean
beyond 50˚N, well further north than the southern
essentially the same thing with slightly different
tip of New Zealand is south.
nuances. They are all trying to separate and
Some scholars in the poorer countries are once categorise economically poor countries from those
again advocating the use of the term undeveloped that are wealthier. The different terms do, however,
countries. Their argument is that during the 1800s carry different implications for different users, and
European colonial powers exploited the resources a term that is offensive to one person will be quite
of their colonies, developing themselves and acceptable to another. Trends change with labels
‘undeveloping’ their colonies. However, this label separating poorer from richer countries, and for
has not become widely accepted because many this reason it is helpful for students to be familiar
scholars in wealthier nations are uncomfortable that with them all. Therefore, this book (like most
they may once again be interpreted as insulting others) will use the terms somewhat
people in poorer countries by labelling them in a interchangeably. Importantly, the United Nations
way that some people might interpret as negative. Development Program uses the term developing
countries, referring also to some 42 of the world’s
poorest countries as the least developed countries.

The Development Countries Assistance Committee

of the OECD also uses the term developing
countries, defining these as including all countries
and territories in Africa except South Africa, in Asia
except Japan, in Oceania except Australia and New
Zealand, in the Americas except Canada and the
USA and the following countries in Europe:
Albania, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Greece, Malta, Portugal,
Turkey and the countries of the former Yugoslavia.

Of course, the countries of the world cannot really

1.14 Fort St Jago in Elmina, Ghana, symbolises the oppression
be cleanly separated into groups on the basis of
that many people in poorer countries believe afflicted their their wealth. Development is a relative term.
nations under colonial rule. Overlooking the coastal town of While it may be accurate to say that one country is
Elmina from a hilltop, the fort was built by the Dutch and later more economically developed than another, it is
taken over by the British. Both colonial powers used the fort to rarely accurate to claim a country is either
control the local population with armed force while extracting
resources for export to enrich the colonising country.
developed or underdeveloped in absolute terms, as
there will almost always be other countries that are
In the United Kingdom, the terms ELDC both more and less developed than it is.
(Economically Less Developed Countries) and
EMDC (Economically More Developed Countries) So, what do we really mean by the term economic
became very popular during the 1990s. Although development? The word ‘development’ is
these are largely British terms, they have found generally used in two ways. First, it is used to
their way into books produced and used in other describe a process – the process of development. In
countries. Sometimes, the labels are used slightly this case, economic development refers to the
differently, as in LEDC (Less Economically changes occurring in a country that are enabling it
Developed Country) and MEDC (More to advance. In general, we can say a country is
Economically Developed Country). These labels advancing, or developing, if the quality of the
emphasise that it is only the economic aspect of inhabitants’ lives is improving.

17
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
The second use of the word ‘development’ measurements – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
describes a potential state of being. In other per capita, Gross National Product (GNP) per
words, a country achieves a state of development capita and Gross National Income (GNI) per
when its people have achieved the full quality of capita. Unlike most quantitative indicators that
life that they desire. It should be clear that this measure a single aspect of a country’s
‘developed state’ is something countries strive development, GDP is a broad measure of an
towards, but have never yet achieved. economy’s performance. It measures all the
economic output in a country in a given year,
It is important to distinguish between economic
quantifying the total value of all goods and services
development, which advances the quality of life for
produced in the country. When the GDP is divided
people, and economic growth, which is simply an
by the population of that country, then the GDP per
expansion in the size of a country’s economy.
capita is calculated.
Although economic growth often provides the
wealth to drive economic development, economic The GNP differs from the GDP by trying to isolate
growth can (and does) occur without economic the economic activity of foreign-owned firms. GNI,
development necessarily also occurring. which is increasingly preferred to GNP and GDP,
measures the total value of goods and services
Indicators of development produced within a country together with the
balance of income and payments from or to other
We saw earlier that population density is almost countries. For most countries, the GNP, GDP and
always measured using one widely accepted GNI are fairly similar figures.
measure – persons per square kilometre. Economic
development is different, in that there are many
different indicators used to measure it.

There are three main groups of indicators used to

try and measure development. The three groups,
which shall be considered in turn in the following
paragraphs, are:
• quantitative indicators of development;
• qualitative indicators of development; and
• composite indicators of development.

Quantitative indicators
Perhaps the most commonly used indicators are
quantitative indicators of development, which use
1.15 This photo shows Monte Carlo, the administrative area of
statistics to try and measure certain aspects of a
Monaco. In 2018, Monaco had the world’s highest GDP per
country. Quantitative measures of development in capita, a figure of $US166,726. This was more than double the
turn usually fall into three groups – economic, GDP per capita for Switzerland, four times higher than New
social and demographic. Examples of economic Zealand and 600 times higher than Burundi, the lowest ranked
indicators of development include percentage of country. Does that mean Monaco was the world’s most
economically developed country?
the labour force in agriculture, energy consumption
per capita, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per
The reason that GNP per capita, GDP per capita
capita and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.
and GNI per capita are popular and widely used
Examples of social indicators include literacy rates
indicators of development is that they include
and population per doctor, while examples of
every aspect of a country’s economy that has a
demographic indicators would be average life
monetary value. On the other hand, most other
expectancy, percentage of the population
quantitative indicators of development simply
undernourished and infant mortality rates.
focus on a single aspect of the country, such as
Of these indicators of development, the most energy use or food consumption. However, all
commonly used are three very similar three measures have significant shortcomings:

18
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.16 Although Qatar has a high GDP per capita, there are large 1.17 In contrast to the view shown in figure 1.16, this camel
gaps in wealth within the country. This view shows the skyline market outside Doha shows a poorer, more traditional side of
of Doha, Qatar’s capital city. Qatar.

• Although these measures embrace all aspects of a GDP per capita and GNI per capita. This means
country’s economy, they do not give any that work done on a non-monetary basis, such as
information about the distribution of wealth subsistence agriculture (the main source of food
within the country. For example, in 2018, Qatar in many LEDCs), or work which is not officially
had a GDP per capita of $US69,027, which was recorded such as undeclared ‘cash-in-hand’ work,
higher than the United States and Singapore. smuggling, the black market and the drug trade
However, much of the wealth of Qatar comes are not included. In some countries, these are
from oil production, and does not necessarily major facets of the operation of the economy.
flow to the bulk of the population. In Qatar, and Ignoring these aspects of the economy can
most countries to a similar or lesser extent, there significantly deflate a country’s GNP per capita
are great gaps between the rich and poor that a and GDP per capita.
single figure for GDP per capita or GNI per capita
• The statistics for GNP per capita, GDP per capita
masks.
and GNI per capita are collected by the national
• Only transactions in the formal (monetary) sector government in each country. In many poorer
are included in calculations of GNP per capita, countries, the statistics may be unreliable
because the resources are not available to ensure
accuracy. Problems also occur when countries
improve or change the bases of their data
collection. This can make comparisons of figures
over time unreliable. Furthermore, different
countries often disagree about definitions and
assumptions of the statistics they collect, making
comparisons between countries unreliable.
Finally, data quality can vary from country to
country. For example, poorer countries tend to
have reliable data on literacy rates whereas
wealthier countries do not, while data for other
indicators may be more reliable in rich countries
than poor countries.
1.18 A woman tends to her subsistence vegetable garden west
• The measures of GNP per capita, GDP per capita
of Mount Hagen in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea.
Subsistence farming accounts for more than 80% of agriculture and GNI per capita are almost always reported in
in Papua New Guinea, and in many other low-income countries, US dollars. Therefore, comparisons between
and therefore is not included in GNP per capita or GNI per different countries are affected by changing
capita statistics.

19
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
currency exchange rates. To take an example, in
2018 Germany’s GDP per capita was $US48,195.
If changes to international exchange rates had
resulted in the Euro declining by 5% against the
US dollar, then this figure would have been about
$US2,400 lower, or about $US45,795, even though
Germany was no less economically developed
than previously.

• The measures of GNP per capita, GDP per capita

and GNI per capita do not give any indication of
the happiness, satisfaction or welfare of the
population in a country. Happiness does not
necessarily follow from being richer, and many
1.19 Qualitative indicators of development attempt to describe
studies actually show there is an inverse aspects of the quality of life of people. A description of
relationship between wealth and happiness. development for these boys drawing water from a communal
well in a shanty settlement in Soweto, South Africa, would
• The measures of GNP per capita, GDP per capita include their welfare, security, survival and freedom from want.
and GNI per capita do not necessarily reflect the
Because they describe rather than measure a
purchasing power of money in different
country’s development, qualitative indicators of
countries. For example, GDP per capita figures
development are not very useful for the (perhaps
for the United States and Denmark are similar
questionable) task of ranking countries according to
($US62,641 and $US60,726 respectively in 2018),
their level of development. However, they are
but a litre of petrol that costs $US0.65 in the
useful for giving a fuller picture of the situation in a
United States may cost $US1.75 in Denmark.
country than a simple statistic (a quantitative
Therefore, the purchasing power of money is
measure) would convey.
very different in the two countries.

To overcome this last concern, GNP per capita is Composite indicators

sometimes expressed at purchasing power parity Composite indicators of development combine
(PPP) rates. PPP is defined as the number of units several other measures of development into a single
of a country’s currency needed to buy the same figure. The aim is to present a measure which
amounts of goods and services in a country as $US1 focuses on the quality of life of people like the
would buy in the United States. PPP examines a qualitative indicators, but which is more precise
wide range of goods and services, including food, like the quantitative measures. By combining
transport, clothing and housing. It provides a several measures of development to create a
measure of what people can actually afford, composite indicator, it is hoped that an even
regardless of the local value and exchange rate of broader and more useful indicator than GNP per
their currency. capita can be developed.
Qualitative indicators The first attempt at generating a composite
indicator of development occurred in the 1980s
Qualitative indicators of development attempt to
when the Overseas Development Council (ODC)
describe a country’s development in terms of those
developed the Physical Quality of Life Index
factors that influence people’s quality of life.
(PQLI). The PQLI was calculated by obtaining the
Rather than trying to measure development,
average of three indicators of quality of life that
qualitative indicators attempt to describe
were thought to be particularly important – literacy,
development. Qualitative indicators usually try to
life expectancy and infant mortality.
describe those facets of a country that directly affect
the quality of life of the people in the country. Literacy was included because it gave a crude
Therefore, qualitative indicators of development indication of access to education, which was seen as
would include analyses of things such as freedom necessary if people are to play a productive and
from want, survival, welfare and security. rewarding role in society. Literacy was seen as the

20
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
first step towards a sound education. As literacy On the same basis, Lesotho would score 0, as its
was taught in primary school, it was accessible by average life expectancy of 53 years was the shortest
many people in poorer countries where secondary in the world. A similar approach was taken for the
schooling may be too expensive to pursue. remaining two indicators. An average of the three
scores was then obtained to calculate the PQLI.
Life expectancy was seen as important on the
assumption that having life is perhaps the most During the 1990s, the PQLI tended to be replaced
important indicator of quality of life; it is certainly a by a slightly different measure, the Human
necessary prerequisite! Furthermore, it was Development Index (HDI), which was developed
suggested that a long life is preferable to a short in 1990 by the United Nations Development
life, and therefore average life expectancy at birth Program (UNDP). Like the PQLI, the HDI also
was seen as an important indicator. Life expectancy uses three measures to generate an index, and two
is also a reflection of other aspects of quality of life, of the three measures are the same – literacy and
such as access to medical care and adequate life expectancy. However, rather than using infant
nutrition. Similar thinking lay behind the inclusion mortality, the HDI uses GDP per capita on a PPP
of infant mortality, which is the proportion of basis. This was done to balance the social measures
infants who survive to their fifth birthday. of development with an economic measure, as
control of personal resources and wealth was seen
For each of the three indicators, countries were
as an important aspect of people’s quality of life.
ranked and given a score, with the ‘best’ country
being given a score of 100, and the ‘worst’ Like the PQLI, calculation of the HDI involves
performing country being given a score of 0. ranking countries on a scale from 100 down to 0,
Therefore, for example, when allocating scores for and taking an average of the three rankings.
life expectancy, Japan would score 100 as its life However, the HDI is expressed on a scale from 0 to
expectancy of 84 years is the longest in the world. 1, usually to three decimal places. Countries are
Ten indicators Three dimensions
Assets
Floor area
Electricity
Living Standards
Water
Toilet
Cooking fuel

Multidimensional
Children enrolled

Education Poverty
Years of schooling
Index

Child mortality

Health

Nutrition

1.20 The components of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The size of the boxes reflects the relative weight of the indicators.

21
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
then classified into four groups – very high human Global variations
development with HDIs of 0.800 and above, high
human development with HDIs of 0.700 to 0.799, Figure 1.21 shows the global distribution of
medium human development with HDIs of 0.550 economic development using the measure of HDI.
to 0.699 and low human development with HDIs at The map shows that high HDI countries tend to be
or below 0.550. in North America, Europe and Australasia, with
some additional examples being in east Asia, the
Although HDI is the most commonly used Arabian peninsula and the southern part of South
composite indicator of development, other America. Low HDI countries tend to be
composite measures also exist, usually being concentrated in sub-Saharan and tropical Africa,
calculated using similar methodology. An example with some additional examples being found in
of another composite indicator is the south-west Asia and the south-west Pacific.
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The MPI
recognises that poverty has many aspects, which it Whatever measure we use, the world pattern of
divides into three dimensions – health, education economic development is broadly similar to the
and living standards – which are in turn measured HDI pattern. However, depending upon the
by ten indicators. These dimensions and indicators, measure used, there will be differences in detail, as
together with their relative weightings, are shown shown in figures 1.22 and 1.23. These maps show
in figure 1.20. the broad world pattern of economic development
using two different measures.
QUESTION BANK 1B
Figure 1.22 shows the distribution of life
1. What is the difference between (a) quantitative, (b) expectancies at birth, which is a single factor
qualitative, and (c) composite indicators of development? quantitative measure that relates closely to
Give one example of each. economic development. Figure 1.23 shows the
2. Why are GNI per capita and GDP per capita so popular as distribution of Gross National Income per capita,
indicators of development? which is also a quantitative indicator of economic
development. Both maps feature seven categories
3. List the shortcomings of GNI per capita and GDP per capita
as indicators of development.
with similar numbers of countries in each group,
using the same colour bands for comparisons.
4. Explain the concepts underlying PPP.
As we saw earlier in this chapter, applying labels to
5. Explain why the three variables used to calculate the PQLI classify countries can lead to disagreements and
were chosen.
may cause offence. These days, the generally
6. How does the HDI differ from the PQLI? preferred labels group countries according to their

HDI bands

Very High HDI: 0.800+

High HDI: 0.700-0.799

Medium HDI: 0.550-0.699

Low HDI: <0.550

1.21 The world distribution of economic development measured by Human Development Index (HDI), 2018.

22
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

Years

<54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 80

80+

1.22 The world distribution of economic development, using average life expectancy as a measure, 2018.

US$ per capita

<999

1,000 - 2,999

3,000 - 4,999

5,000 - 9,999

10,000 - 19,999

20,000 - 49,999

50,000+

1.23 The world distribution of economic development measured by Gross National Income per capita, 2018.

Gross National Income per capita. The United Changing rates of development
Nations and the World Bank uses GNI per capita to
classify countries into four bands, as shown in It is important to remember that levels of economic
figure 1.24: development are not fixed as some economies grow
more quickly than others, and indeed some
• High income countries have a Gross National
economies shrink because they are experiencing
Income (GNI) per capita greater than US$12,375.
turmoil or difficulties. Consequently, the United
• Upper middle income countries have a Gross Nations and the World bank re-assess countries
National Income (GNI) per capita of US3,996 to annually and re-categorise them if necessary.
US$12,375.
Two additional categories help us to understand
• Lower middle income countries have a Gross
changes in levels of economic development. Some
National Income (GNI) per capita of US$1,026 to
economies have been restructuring by expanding
US$3,995.
their manufacturing or service sectors, growing at
• Low income countries have a Gross National a faster rate than the world average as they have
Income (GNI) per capita of less than US$1,026.

23
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
done so. The countries that have achieved this for a malnutrition, high infant mortality rates, a low
sustained period of time have become known as the percentage of children attending school, a low adult
emerging economies. The list of countries that are literacy rate, remoteness and poor communications,
classified as emerging economies changes over unstable export markets, vulnerability to natural
time, and figure 1.25 shows several that are disasters and unreliable food production.
commonly regarded as being emerging economies.

Figure 1.25 also shows the countries that are Factors affecting different rates of
classified by the United Nations and the World economic development
Bank as the least developed countries. These are
The reasons that a country’s economy develops
low-income countries that have severe structural
quickly or slowly are complex, and in many ways
impediments to sustainable development. The
unique for each country. The factors affecting the
structural impediments that slow the process of
rate of economic development may be political,
economic development include widespread
social, physical or historical.

High income countries

Upper middle income

Lower middle income

Low income countries

1.24 Low income countries, middle income countries and high income countries, as classified by the United Nations and World Bank.

Emerging economies

Least developed countries

1.25 The world’s emerging economies and least developed countries.

24
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
One way to look at the forces affecting economic Trade between countries allows countries to
development is to consider external forces, which exchange resources and products it has in
are forces affecting the country from elsewhere, and abundance for other goods that it lacks. In this
internal forces, which are factors operating from way, trade helps most countries to advance,
within the country. Examples of external forces presuming the terms of trade are negotiated fairly
include culture contact, trade, financial flows and for all parties. Japan lacks most natural resources,
investment, technological change, transnational but through trade it has overcome these
corporations, and bilateral and multilateral shortcomings and has developed economically to a
agreements. Examples of internal forces include very high level.
transport and other infrastructure, political systems
and planning, population change, availability of
natural resources, and internal capital formation.
We will now consider each of these forces in turn.

External forces
Historically, culture contact played a significant
role in economic development. For countries that
were colonised by European powers, colonisation
brought mixed blessings. On one hand, many
resources were exported at very low prices with
few direct benefits for the colony. On the other
hand, transport and other infrastructure were often
built, some of which still operate today. Of course, 1.27 Unloading a ship that has brought vehicles from Japan to
the infrastructure was designed to help the colonial Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Trade can help economic
power rather than the local population, and so development when equipment is imported that enables new
railways (to take one example) were often built to industries to be developed or existing industries to function
more efficiently.
the sites of mines or other resources rather than to
centres of population. Notwithstanding these Financial flows into a country can help economic
problems, culture contact inevitably brings new development by providing funds for investment
ideas to a country, some of which may be beneficial that the country itself lacks. These funds allow
in speeding economic development. factories to be built and resources to be developed,
providing employment and taxation revenue for
the government that can be used to provide
services and build infrastructure elsewhere in the
country.

There are two types of inward financial flows. One

is foreign aid from overseas governments, such as
infrastructure aid projects. Such aid often comes
with political strings, such as requiring the aid
funds to be spent with companies in the donor
countries, or obliging the government of the
recipient country to behave in a friendly way
towards the government of the donor country. Aid
funds also flow into low-income countries from
1.26 Colonisation brought both benefits and exploitation to non-government organisations (NGOs), in which
many countries, as illustrated by the main railway station in case there are usually fewer political strings
Bamako, Mali, shown here. Mali was colonised by the French, attached.
who built valuable infrastructure such as roads and railways.
However, they were built to serve the needs of French interests The second type of inward financial flow takes the
as they exported Mali’s resources at low prices. Today, the
form of investment by overseas or transnational
railway and its associated infrastructure is little used, being very
run-down and needing maintenance.

25
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
making wages cheap but machinery expensive.
This ‘resource endowment’ is the opposite of most
high-income countries, which have shortages of
labour (and thus high wages) but abundant money
to invest in machinery (which is therefore relatively
cheap). It follows from this that the technology
which is suitable for a high-income country, such as
a labour saving machine, will not be appropriate
for a low-income country, which would have to
find scarce money to buy a machine to replace
labour, which is abundant. Appropriate technology
for a low-income country will therefore be cheap,
and will allow production processes to remain
1.28 The repair of the main road on Tarawa Atoll in Kiribati is a fairly labour intensive.
foreign aid project sponsored by Australian Aid, the World Bank
and the Asian Development Bank to improve Kiribati’s
infrastructure.

1.30 Women carry sand from the Niger River on their heads for
use in the building construction industry in Bamako, Mali. In low-
income countries such as Mali, machinery is expensive but
1.29 China has become a significant investor in many low- labour is cheap, so this labour-intensive process is very efficient
income countries, especially in Africa. This example shows the for the country’s resource endowment. In a high-income
Shanghai Construction Group facility in Lusaka, Zambia. country where labour is expensive but machinery is cheap, it
would be more financially efficient to replace the workers with
corporations. Of course, overseas investors always
machinery.
demand a profit on their investments, so the other
Transnational corporations can play an important
side of this type of financial flow is the outflow of
role in the economies of most countries. Like
profits and interest payments back to the investing
colonisation, they can be a mixed blessing for the
country. Today, the need to repay debt on
countries where they operate. Indeed some people
borrowings and the profits on investments means
believe that transnational corporations are a new
that the net flow of money in the world is from low-
form of colonialism. Known as neo-colonialism,
income to high-countries.
the idea is that corporations rather than countries
When foreign investment occurs in a country, it is oppress less powerful groups of people, but do so
often accompanied by an inflow of new technology, economically rather than politically. Benefits that
leading to technological change, new techniques transnational corporations can bring to recipient
and ways of doing things. Provided that the countries include investment funds and new
technology is appropriate for the country, this technology, but there can be significant social costs
usually helps to encourage economic development. as inappropriate capital intensive technology may
Low-income countries usually have little capital be imported from the home country such as USA,
(money) but they have large numbers of people, Japan, UK or France. Another difficulty is that

26
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.31 Advertising outside a burger outlet in Yakutsk, Russia, 1.32 Poor transport infrastructure is a significant dampener on
promote two large US-based transnational corporations — economic development because it reduces people’s efficiency.
Coca-Cola and Apple Inc. This view shows public transport on the outskirts of Niamey,
capital city of Niger.
transnational corporations have the flexibility to
adjust the buying and selling prices of raw
materials and components within the corporation
to shift their profits to countries with low rates of
taxation, declaring losses in countries with higher
rates of taxation. This flexibility is a strong
incentive for governments to minimise the rates of
taxation they charge transnational corporations,
reducing the financial benefits that may have
otherwise arisen.

Bilateral (between two countries) and multilateral

(between several countries) trade agreements can
assist the economic development of countries
within the agreement, but may slow the economic
1.33 In contrast with Niamey, Gothenburg in Sweden has
development for countries outside the agreement. excellent transport infrastructure, some of which is shown in this
view near the centre of the city — electric tram service on a
Internal forces dedicated track, excellent roads with bright lighting and co-
ordinated traffic signals, bicycle and pedestrian lane, and so on.
Among the internal forces affecting the rate of
economic development, transport and other as Hong Kong, South Korea, Canada and Australia)
infrastructure are very significant factors. have faster and more stable economic growth than
Infrastructure refers to the services and facilities economies with closed or less transparent political
needed to support productive activities, and as well systems (such as North Korea, Russia and Saudi
as transport, examples include telecommunications, Arabia). In some countries, the nature of the
electricity, water, port facilities and other public political system influences the type of economic
services. It is a general principle that countries with development that occurs. For example, the
a high level of infrastructure will develop more government in Myanmar supports central planning
rapidly than countries that do not have these and discourages foreign trade. Therefore, a
facilities, everything else (such as political systems significant proportion of the country’s trade and
and levels of corruption) being equal. economic growth comes from smuggling
The political systems and planning mechanisms in operations across the border with Thailand and,
a country also influence the rate of economic according to some sources, drug production in the
development. As a generalisation, economies with hill areas near the Thai, Lao and Chinese borders
open policies towards trade and investment (such where government control is weak.

27
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Rapid population growth is considered by some
people to slow down economic development,
although opinions differ on this point. Malthusians
argue that each extra person is a consumer, taking a
share from a fixed pool of resources. Followers of
writers such as Julian Simon and Bjørn Lomborg,
on the other hand, argue that each extra person is a
productive resource that produces more than it
consumes, and provides creativity that solves
problems, thus raising productivity. 1.34 The vicious cycle of poverty.

At first sight, we would expect that availability of

natural resources would significantly affect the rate
of economic development. It seems reasonable to
expect that the more natural resources a country
possesses, the faster would be its rate of economic
growth. In fact, there are examples of wealthy
economies with very few natural resources (such as
Japan, Hong Kong and the Netherlands) as well as
wealthy countries with abundant resources (such as
USA, Germany, Canada and Australia). Similarly,
there are poor countries with abundant natural
resources, such as Papua New Guinea, Myanmar,
Venezuela and Nigeria – such countries either do
not have the population or the finance to develop 1.35 Labour-intensive agriculture in low-income countries
the resources, or the bureaucracy or corruption is so struggles to produce surplus food, stifling economic
development as food is not available to feed city dwellers who
great that the rate of economic development is
work in factories or provide services.
impeded.
must have an impact on the agricultural sector of
Internal capital formation means the ability of a the economy. As shown in figure 1.36, sound
country to find its own funds to invest in farming sector is needed:
development projects. Most people in low-income
• to provide a food surplus to feed city dwellers;
countries earn low incomes, forcing them to spend
a large proportion of their income on basic • to provide surplus labour for growing
necessities such as food, clothing and shelter. This manufacturing and service sectors of the
leaves very little surplus for savings, and therefore economy;
banks have very little funds available for • to enlarge exports;
investment. This creates a cycle of • to provide a market for manufactured goods; and
impoverishment, known as the Vicious Cycle of
• to demonstrate to the bulk of the population that
Poverty. In summary, low incomes lead to low
development is actually occurring.
investment, which lead to low levels of savings,
which lead to low levels of productivity, which QUESTION BANK 1C
perpetuate low incomes. Unless some way can be
1. The term ‘economic development’ is used to describe a
found to break the vicious cycle of poverty, it
process as well as to describe a potential state of being.
becomes self-perpetuating.
Explain the difference between these two meanings of
In cases where the vicious cycle of poverty is ‘economic development’.
broken successfully, the foundation of sustainable 2. What is the difference between economic development and
economic development is usually agriculture. In economic growth?
low-income countries, a large proportion of the
3. Using figure 1.21, describe the broad world distribution of
population are farmers. Therefore, if development
economic development measured by the HDI.
is to have an impact on most of the population, it

28
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.36 The role of agriculture in economic development.

4. Using figure 1.23, describe the broad world distribution of CASE STUDY
economic development measured by the GNI per capita.
Papua New Guinea
5. For the purposes of this question and the next question,
assume that a long life is better than a short life, and
assume that a high income is better than a low income. Population distribution
With reference to figures 1.22 and 1.23, identify three The forces that affect population distribution at a
countries where the average life expectancy is two
national scale differ from country to country
categories or more ‘worse’ than the GNI per capita.
according to its unique combination of landforms,
Suggest reasons why their life expectancies might be
shorter than expected compared with their GNI per capita.
climate, soils, vegetation, history and politics. This
will be illustrated by two case studies, Papua New
6. With reference to figures 1.22 and 1.23, identify three Guinea and (later in the chapter), China.
countries where the GNI per capita is two categories or
more ‘worse’ than the average life expectancy. Suggest Papua New Guinea is an independent country in
reasons why their GNI per capita might be lower than the south-west Pacific Ocean. It is situated to the
expected compared with their average life expectancies. immediate north of Australia, occupying the
7. What is meant by the terms (a) high income countries, (b)
eastern half of the island of New Guinea plus
upper middle income countries, (c) lower middle income several offshore islands. It is a culturally diverse
countries, (d) low income countries, (e) least developed nation, with more than 850 languages and a
countries, and (e) emerging economies. plethora of different tribal traditions. Only 18% of
the population live in urban centres, the largest of
8. Using figure 1.24 and the accompanying text, describe and
account for the distribution of (a) low income countries and
which is the capital city, Port Moresby.
(b) high income countries. Papua New Guinea is a low-income country with a
9. What is the difference between external and internal forces GNI per capita of US$2,530 and an HDI of 0.544.
that affect economic development? Like many low-income countries, it has a rapid rate
of population growth. The growth of Papua New
Guinea’s total population over past decades, and its
projected growth, are shown in table 1.2.

29
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Table 1.2
Population growth in Papua New Guinea

Population
Year
Annual growth
Total number
rate %
1960 1,967,000 1.7

1965 2,161,000 2.1

1970 2,435,000 2.6

1975 2,810,000 2.8

1980 3,215,000 2.7

1985 3,678,000 2.6

1990 4,158,000 2.4

1.37 Children are evident in most Papua New Guinean villages
1995 4,716,000 2.6 because 37% of the population are younger than 15 years old.
This view shows Hobe village, which is situated on a small island
2000 5,379,000 2.6
off the coast near Madang.
2005 6,096,000 2.4
Papua New Guinea’s population distribution is
2010 6,859,000 2.3
quite different to that expected in most countries.
2015 7,619,000 2.1 Whereas most countries have the highest
2020 (est.) 8,400,000 1.9 population densities in coastal areas, Papua New
2025 (est.) 9,210,000 1.8 Guinea’s population density is greatest in the
2030 (est.) 10.020,000 1.6
mountain valleys of the Highlands, with altitudes
of between 1,500 and 2,000 metres. This unusual
2035 (est.) 10,752,000 1.4
distribution parallels aspects of the population
2040 (est.) 11,462,000 1.2 distribution in medieval Europe where the
2045 (est.) 12,193,000 1.1 population was also concentrated in the highest
2050 (est,) 12,924,000 1.0 areas for safety.
Sources: World Bank, International Futures at the Pardee Centre.
This population distribution was a great surprise to
Of Papua New Guinea’s total population in 2018, the early European explorers who had settled in the
36% were under 15 years of age (the equivalent coastal areas and presumed that the inland,
figure for Australia was 19%). This shows that mountainous areas would be uninhabited. A high
Papua New Guinea’s population will continue to mountain chain ran along the island of New Guinea
grow rapidly for some time to come. However, the
proportion of people under 15 years of age in
Papua New Guinea is becoming smaller – in 1980
the figure was 43%. This shows that the birth rate
of Papua New Guinea’s population is also slowing
a little, from 41 births per 1000 people in 1970-75 to
27 births per 1000 people in 2018. This transition is
expected to continue, causing a change to the
country’s age-sex pyramid which graphs the
population structure (figure 1.39). Any village in
Papua New Guinea is noteworthy for the large
number of children present, and this situation will
continue for some time.

An important point to realise regarding Papua New 1.38 In spite of its rural appearance, this is one of the most
Guinea’s population is that it is spread very densely populated parts of Papua New Guinea. This farming
unevenly across the country (figure 1.40). In fact, land is part of the Wahgi Valley, located in the Highlands near
Mount Hagen.

30
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.39 Population pyramids for Papua New Guinea, 1980 to 2050.

31
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

Admiralty Islands
Wewak New Ireland

Rabaul
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
New Guinea
Madang
Mount Hagen

Goroka New Britain

Bougainville
Lae
Papua
Trobriand Islands

Port Moresby
D’Entrecasteaux
Islands

Australia

1.40 The distribution of population in Papua New Guinea.

like a spine from west to east. When viewed from New Britain island, where the rich volcanic soils
the coastal areas on either side of the Highlands, have encouraged plantations to be established, and
the mountains appeared to be an inhospitable, solid the copper mining areas of Panguna, Arawa and
mass. However, when an Australian group Kieta in the outlying North Solomon Islands. In
searching for gold ventured into the mountains for total, the Highlands comprise 37% of Papua New
the first time in 1930, they discovered that a series Guinea’s population, with 28% from the rest of
of valleys ran through the elevated parts of the New Guinea, 20% from Papua and 15% from the
Highlands. These valleys contained almost one islands.
million people whose existence the rest of the world
The average population density of Papua New
had not suspected.
Guinea as a whole is 10 people per square
There are good reasons for Papua New Guinea to kilometre. This is a relatively low population
have a high population density in the Highlands. density, and so, in contrast with many developing
These areas have rich volcanic soils that are well countries, Papua New Guinea is generally regarded
drained, a reliable and abundant rainfall, and as being underpopulated. This means that the
unlike the low lying swampy coastal areas, they are country has insufficient people to develop its
free from malaria. Other areas with high resources adequately. Underpopulation can lead to
population densities include the northern end of a number of problems including too little tax

32
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
revenue to provide basic services such as schools Table 1.3
and health clinics, too few roads to service an area, Urbanisation in Papua New Guinea, 1960 to 2015
and low prices for cash crops due to the high cost of Urban Population
transport and lack of competition. Year % of total
Total number
population
However, not all parts of Papua New Guinea are
underpopulated. Some areas are overpopulated, 1960 73,269 3.73
which means that there are too many people for the 1965 118,212 5.47
amount of land and the resources available. 1970 238,509 9.80
Overpopulation can lead to:
1975 335,196 11.93
• food shortages when too many people compete
1980 419,524 13.05
for too little food;
1985 514,826 14.00
• over-exploitation of the land (which can lead in
1990 623,436 14.99
turn to soil erosion and land degradation), and
1995 664,050 14.08
• land disputes as people fight over scarce
2000 709,590 13.20
resources.
2005 797,932 13.11
Because of the unequal distribution of Papua New
2010 891,478 13.02
Guinea’s population, people tend to move (or
migrate) from areas of high population density into 2015 991,000 13.01

areas of lower population density. When people Sources: World Bank, United Stations, Index Mundi.

move from rural areas into urban areas, the Table 1.3 shows that Papua New Guinea has
movement is called rural-urban migration. Rural- experienced a spectacular increase in the number of
urban migration is one of the main causes of people living in urban areas since 1960. This came
urbanisation in Papua New Guinea. about due to three factors:
QUESTION BANK 1D • about 20% of the growth was due to biological
increase (the number of births exceeding the
1. Draw a line graph showing the change in Papua New number of deaths) in the towns;
Guinea’s population over the period 1960 to 2050.
• about 7% of the growth was due to urban
2. On the basis of the information in this section, describe the boundaries being expanded to take in
changing shape of Papua New Guinea’s population surrounding villages by reclassifying existing
pyramid from 1980 to 2050.
settlements; and
3. Using figure 1.41, describe and account for the distribution • the remainder of the growth (the overwhelming
of Papua New Guinea’s population.
majority) was due to rural-urban migration.
4. List the problems of (a) underpopulation and (b)
overpopulation.

5. What is ‘rural-urban migration’?

Internal (national) migration

Any movement of people is called migration.
When people leave a country, it is called
emigration, but when people enter a country from
overseas it is termed immigration. The movement
of people within a country is called internal
migration. When people move away from a
particular district or town, it is called out-
migration. On the other hand, in-migration is the 1.41 Due to rural-urban migration over half the population of Port
movement of people into a particular town or Moresby was born elsewhere. This view shows the coastal village
district. of Hanuabada, with Port Moresby’s CBD in the background.

33
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Table 1.4
Average population density, selected regions.

Out-migrants In-migrants Out-migrants In-migrants

% of % of % of % of
Province people people Province people people
Number Number Number Number
born in the born in the born in the born in the
province province province province
Highlands Region Papua Region

Chimbu 30,000 15 2,500 2 Central 20,000 17 10,000 9

Eastern Highlands 20,000 7 12,500 5 Gulf 15,000 20 2,500 4

Enga 12,500 7 2,500 1 Milne Bay 10,000 7 2,500 2

Hela 15,000 9 1,500 1 Oro 7,500 9 5,000 8

Jiwaka 10,000 6 15,000 9 Port Moresby 10,000 18 95,000 61

Southern Highlands 20,000 9 2,500 1 Western 5,000 7 2,500 2

Western Highlands 7,500 3 35,000 13 Islands Region

Momase Region Bougainville 2,500 3 17,500 13

East Sepik 25,000 11 7,500 4 East New Britain 15,000 13 20,000 16

Madang 15,000 7 12,500 6 Manus 5,000 19 2,500 8

Morobe 25,000 8 32,500 11 New Ireland 5,000 9 7,500 12

Sandaun 7,500 6 2,500 3 West New Britain 5,000 7 20,000 23

Sources: Updated from Ranck and Jackson (1986) Exploring Geography through Papua New Guinea, pp.106-107.

142˚E 150˚E
Western
Highlands

Jiwaka New
4˚S Ireland 4˚S
Sundaun
East
INDONESIA

Sepik
Madang
Enga East New
Hela West New Britain
Bougainville
Morobe Britain
SOLOMON
Gulf ISLANDS
Western PAPUA NEW GUINEA

8˚S 8˚S
Central
Chimbu
Port Oro
Moresby Milne Bay
Southern
Highlands 0 300
Eastern Kilometres
AUSTRALIA
Highlands
142˚E 150˚E
1.42 Map of Papua New Guinea, showing the location of the provinces listed in table 1.4.

34
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
World War II, as the area was still very isolated
from the rest of the nation – Europeans only
discovered that people lived in the Highlands in the
early 1930s.

The situation changed dramatically after World War

II when the Highlands became the main source for
contract labour in the coastal provinces and
islands. The movement of people under contract to
work on plantations was circular migration, which
meant that the workers returned home after a
certain ‘contract’ period. Contract labourers who
returned to their villages often spread wondrous,
fanciful tales of city life, and this encouraged others
1.43 Villages such as Yamok in East Sepik province offer few
incentives for young people to stay, and thus provide the source
to join the scheme. Thus, in recent years, there has
for many rural-urban migrants. Yamok has no electricity, no been a shift towards chain migration. Chain
roads, no river, no running water, and no mobile phone migration is a ‘one-way’ movement of people in
reception. A few residents have battery operated lights, but steps, first from villages to small towns, then to
most use fire for their lighting. larger towns, and finally to cities.

The movement of people in Papua New Guinea has

certainly not been uniform, however. The pattern
of movement can be described with reference to
table 1.4 and figure 1.42.

QUESTION BANK 1E
1. Use the information in table 1.3 to construct (a) a column
graph of Papua New Guinea’s urban population numbers
from 1960 to 2015, and (b) a line graph to show this data as
a percentage of total population.

2. What evidence is there that rural-urban migration has been

important in Papua New Guinea?
1.44 When rural-urban migrants arrive in Port Moresby, they 3. With reference to table 1.4 and figure 1.42, what type of
settle in one of several townships, such as Nine Mile shown provinces have experienced large scale out-migration?
here. Services are very basic, and the townships lack the safety
and sense of community of rural villages. 4. What type of provinces have experienced large scale in-
migration?
Rural-urban migration has been so important that
5. Suggest the effect of each of the following on migration in
today, well over half of Papua New Guinea’s urban
Papua New Guinea:
population are people who were born in rural
a. The Highlands have the highest population densities in
areas. Papua New Guinea’s two largest towns, Port
Papua New Guinea.
Moresby and Lae, have 61% and 62% respectively
b. There are large copper mines (Panguna, Arawa, etc) on
of their populations born outside their areas. In
Bougainville.
mining towns on Bougainville Island, the figure is
c. The range of goods and services available in Port
84%, with some towns (Arawa, Kieta and Panguna)
Moresby is much greater than anywhere else in Papua
having over 90% of their people having been born
New Guinea.
elsewhere.
d. There are many oil palm re-settlement schemes in West
Before World War II, there was some migration of New Britain.
Papua New Guineans under contract to coastal e. The world’s largest single deposit of copper is located at
plantations. Most of these labourers came from Ok Tedi in Western Province. However, the mine is still
coastal provinces such as Sepik, Gulf, Morobe and being developed and is not yet fully operational.
Milne Bay. Few migrants left the Highlands before

35
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
6. Calculate Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient using Because Chimbu Province is the most densely
the percentage figures in table 1.4. To do this: settled part of Papua New Guinea, migrants from
a. Draw up a table with five columns. In the first column, that area tend to become very significant minorities
list the names of the 22 provinces. in the coastal towns. This has led to some tension
b. For each province listed, calculate its ‘out-migrants’ rank between Chimbu and people from other areas in
with ‘1’ being the highest figure and 22 being the lowest. the towns. Like most groups of rural-urban
Where two figures are the same, split that ranking (i.e. migrants, the Chimbu people tend to cluster
two equal figures which would have been in 2nd and 3rd together in certain parts of the towns, and this can
places receive a value of 2.5 each). Write the figures for attract hostility at times from other ethnic groups.
each province in the second column.
The large community of poor rural-urban migrants
c. For each province listed, calculate its ‘in-migrants’ rank
living in shanties at the Six Mile Rubbish Tip and
with ‘1’ being the highest figure and 22 being the lowest.
Nine Mile township in Port Moresby, for example,
Where two figures are the same, split that ranking.
Write the figures for each province in the third column.
often draws criticism from less poor people who
have migrated from other parts of the country.
d. For each province, calculate the difference between the
two rankings (i.e. for each province, subtract the column
3 figure from the column 2 figure). Write the answers in
column 4 for each province.
e. In column 5, calculate the square of each of the figures in
column 4. At the foot of column 5, calculate the sum of
the squared differences (i.e. calculate ∑d2).
f. Calculate Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient by
applying the formula:
Rs = 1 - 6 X ∑d2
n (n2 - 1)
where,
Rs = Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient,
∑d2 = the sum of column 5 (the sum of differences
squared), and
n = the number of cases (in this case, the number of 1.45 Rural-urban migrants from the Highlands and coastal
provinces). provinces living in Nine Mile township on the northern edge of
Port Moresby.
7. Use the diagram below to classify the result you calculated
in the previous question, and state any conclusions you can Circularity (returning home) is very common
draw from this classification about the pattern of migration among rural-urban migrants in Papua New Guinea.
in Papua New Guinea. Indeed, over 50% of rural-urban migrants return
home within five years of their move. However,
the situation is somewhat complex because many of
these people return to the towns at a later time.
Because work is easier to find for males, the typical
rural-urban migrant in Papua New Guinea is a
young, single, somewhat adventurous male.

The decision of whether or not to migrate is a

Overall, there has been a movement from densely
complex one and it is not made lightly. Figure 1.46
populated interior regions (the Highlands) to the
describes the decision making process involved.
islands (plantations, Rabaul and mining towns on
The migration decision is influenced by a number
Bougainville) and to the coastal towns of Port
of push factors and pull factors. Push factors are
Moresby, Lae, Madang and Wewak. The largest
forces that repel a person away from an area. Pull
rates of out-migration are from Gulf, Manus and
factors are forces that attract a person into a
Chimbu Provinces. Between 13% and 20% of the
particular area. In the specific case of Papua New
people from these provinces now live outside them.
Guinea, important push and pull factors include:

36
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Often, opinions
may be more
important than
reality. Many
people in Papua
New Guinean
villages think of the
tall buildings and
bright lights of the
centre of Port
Moresby when they
consider migrating.
However, for most
of them, migration
to Port Moresby
results in
unemployment,
poverty, poor
accommodation and
misery.
Nonetheless, it is
1.46 The decision making process of a potential rural-urban migrant. people’s opinions
that influence the
Push factors: decision whether or not to migrate. Another term
• Pressure on the land due to rising population for this is psychological motives.
(especially in the Highlands) Although most Papua New Guineans in rural areas
• The need to raise fast cash (for tax, consumer have adequate amounts of land for subsistence
goods or a bride price) farming, land pressure is growing with rising
population and increased cash cropping. In areas
• A desire to avoid traditional obligations and where subsistence cultivation is hardest and where
authority cash cropping does not occur (such as in East Sepik,
• An extended adolescence, due to abolition of Gulf and Western Provinces), high rates of out-
initiation ceremonies migration and low rates of circularity occur.

• Personal factors (such as arguments or family

problems)

• Boredom with village life (particularly among the

young)

Pull factors:

• A wish to acquire skills or education

• Easy access to towns (roads, air, shipping)

• Desire to join urban resident kin

• Belief that many more services are found in the

towns
1.47 In contrast with the reality of most rural-urban migrants’
• Perception of migration as a rite of passage into experiences of Port Moresby, as shown in figures 1.44 and 1.45,
manhood. the downtown centre of Port Moresby’s CBD is the image that
many people in Papua New Guinea’s villages have of urban life.

37
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
usually prefer to migrate to Port Moresby, even
though that means an expensive flight.

Villages that have lost rural-urban migrants tend to

have unbalanced population structures, with an
excess of children, old people and women.
However, this does not usually affect food
production as it is traditionally the women’s role to
tend the gardens. The traditional role of men was
to fight, and as there is little calling for fighting
nowadays, the men tend to spend their time sitting,
talking and making money. In general, the loss of
even the village’s most able-bodied men is seldom a
major economic problem.
1.48 Rates of out-migration in areas where commercial
plantations have been established are relatively low because of
the employment opportunities available. This view shows part of
the Aviamp Tea and Coffee Planation, situated in the Wahgi
Valley of Jiwaka province in the Highlands.

1.50 Because most rural-urban migrants are young men, many

rural villages have an excess of women, children and the
elderly. This does not affect food production as women do
most farming in Papua New Guinea. In this view, a women
1.49 Where community schools have been established, such as prepares her garden for crop planting in Leinga hamlet, Yamok
here in Tari in Hela province, rates of out-migration are reduced. village, East Sepik province.
Migration from the Chimbu area of the Highlands Migration is seen by Papua New Guineans as part
is also mostly due to shortages of land, although of the process of ‘modernisation’. So far, rural-
no-one is ever forced to move to avoid starvation. urban migration has not led to great differences in
attitudes between urban dwellers and rural
In areas where plantations have been established,
dwellers, as has occurred in parts of Asia. Most
out-migration is much lower. This is because the
townspeople are first generation migrants who
plantations offer local work, and often lead to the
maintain strong contacts with their villages, and
establishment of local schools, shops, and so on.
rural-urban circulation is high. However, the
Since most subsistence cultivation in Papua New
absence of young men from the villages means that
Guinea is done by women, men are relatively free
many traditional ceremonies are beginning to die
to migrate and to increase their cash-cropping
away.
activities if they leave their wives at home to do the
weeding and harvesting. Different towns have Naturally, there is some economic dislocation in
different attractions for migrants. For example, the rural areas that the young male migrants have
people from the Mount Hagen in the Western left behind. This dislocation is most significant in
Highlands do not like to migrate to Lae because it is areas where migration has been greatest and where
reached too easily by their relatives who might circulation least frequent. Migration to Port
follow them. Therefore, people from Mount Hagen Moresby has so depopulated some Gulf Province

38
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development

1.51 Traditional ceremonies like this example in Hobe village, 1.52 Riwo is a typical, traditional, largely self-reliant village,
Madang province, are dying out in some areas as young men situated on the coast north of Madang. Even in this village,
leave the villages in search of work in the towns and on western clothing worn by the men and boys provide evidence
plantations. of contact with the outside world.
areas that gardening has stopped in some places.
Indeed, in some cases, settlements have broken up
as people scatter to collect wild sago.

In most areas, however, the effects have not been as

severe. The Orokaiva people from Oro Province
always send money home to the villages to help
those remaining behind, and their district does not
seem adversely affected by its 30% absentee rate.
The young people who leave the Mount Hagen
district of the Western Highlands have no real
productive role in their villages. Even when older
Highlanders leave, there is little effect because their
wives continue to care for the crops and they either
send money home or visit periodically. The large 1.53 This small market forms every Sunday, Tuesday and
Thursday, in a clearing beside the walking track half way
number of Sio (an Islander group) working away
between Yamok and the Sepik River villages of Korugu and
from home also send money back and return when Paringawi. The market illustrates the limited trade that has
middle-aged to responsible positions in the always occurred between largely self-reliant villages. Women
community. In such circumstances, rural-urban from Korugu and Patingawi bring fish and small items from trade
migration is not disastrous for the village. stores, such as batteries and plastic bags of salt, while women
from Yamok sell vegetables, sugar cane and sago. Most trade
In traditional Papua New Guinean society, there is barter, but some purchases use cash.
were no towns. People lived in small, self-reliant moving into urban centres. It was during this
villages. The way of life of the people was based on period that large scale rural-urban migration began
farming which avoided complex technology, and in Papua New Guinea. Today, the rapidly growing
there was only limited trade between most villages. size of Papua New Guinea’s urban population
reflects the importance of rural-urban migration.
The first towns in Papua New Guinea were built
after the arrival of Europeans in 1884. Being built In 1966, there were two males living in Papua New
by European traders, missionaries and government Guinea towns to every female. Since that time,
officials, the towns were centres of trade, religion more women have begun migrating to the towns
and administration. At first, local Papua New (often to join their husbands), and today the ratio is
Guineans were not permitted to live in the towns. 1.38 males to each female. Most towns have an
However, following World War II, this regulation abundance of young people of working age. One
became difficult to enforce, and local people began quarter of Papua New Guinea’s males between 15

39
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
and 44 years old live in towns where they make up
50% of the urban population. This is particularly
strong in the mining towns on Bougainville, which
are almost entirely populated with single males
from all parts of Papua New Guinea. In Port
Moresby, the ratio of males to females is 3:2.
However, for Highlanders in Port Moresby, there
are six males for every female.

Over 95% of the migrants who come into the towns

have had no formal job training. In Port Moresby,
46% of in-migrants have not even completed one
year of schooling and only 1% received a leaving
certificate. This means that employment in skilled
1.56 This general store (known as a tradestore in Papua New
and semi-skilled fields often eludes in-migrants, Guinea) has strong security bars as protection against crime.
who wind up either working as houseboys or The store is located in Sabama, a township for rural-urban
cleaners, or remaining unemployed. The crime rate migrants in Port Moresby.
in Port Moresby is very high by any standards, and

1.57 A typical street inhabited by rural-urban migrants in

Sabama, Port Moresby.
1.54 Most homes in Port Moresby are protected by security
systems using high walls, barbed wire, alarms and sometimes much of this crime is by ‘raskals’, unemployed
surveillance cameras as protection against the city’s high rates young male in-migrants. Street bashings are
of burglary and theft. unfortunately common. Many residences in the
towns are surrounded by two-metre-high barbed
wire fences, often featuring security devices.
Unlike the situation in Africa or Asia, very few
unemployed in-migrants turn to prostitution.

Unemployment is a problem in the towns.

Between 15% and 25% of working age males and 80
to 90% of working age females are currently
unemployed in Papua New Guinea’s seven largest
towns. These figures are a little misleading,
however, as a substantial number of these people
are not, in fact, looking for work. In Goroka, for
example, about 20% of the unemployed are
voluntarily outside the formal economy. In other
1.55 Even the basic homes of rural-urban migrants in Port
words, they are engaged in subsistence activities or
Moresby are often protected by high corrugated iron fences to
deter thieves. just visiting relatives, occasionally selling produce,

40
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
and so on. Thus, the true unemployment rate is
estimated as between 5% and 12%.

Few of these unemployed people are really trapped

in the towns. People who do not have work and
would like to go home, but cannot, number only
about 1% of males and 3% of females. An
important exception to this, however, is the many
Chimbu people who live in Port Moresby. They
have a 27% unemployment rate as travel back to
the Chimbu can only be undertaken by air, making
the trip quite expensive.

As shown in table 1.4, Papua New Guinea is

divided into four regions: Papua (which is the 1.58 An area of poor housing near Hanuabada, in Port Moresby.
southern half of the mainland), the Highlands, the
Islands, and Momase (which is the New Guinea
coast). These divisions sometimes become the basis
of ethnic conflict in the towns. In most towns, New
Guinea Islanders and Papuans are the most
educated and qualified for skilled positions, with
Highlanders being easily the least qualified. In
Mount Hagen, for example (which is in the
Highlands), 18.5% of the Islanders, 7.4% of the
Papuans, 3.0% of the New Guinea Coastals and
only 0.7% of the Highlanders have formal job
certification. Highlanders are the most recent
group to begin living in towns, and this is so even
in towns in the Highlands.
1.59 Hanuabada is an established area of poor housing on the
Being the least educated and qualified, the coast of Port Moresby.
Highlanders are concentrated in the lowest paying
jobs, positions that are the least secure and hold
the fewest opportunities for advancement. They
are the least likely to have their wives and children
in town, and tend not to reside in one urban centre
continuously.

The shortage of housing in Papua New Guinean

towns is very severe. Every night, thousands of
rural-urban migrants sleep under shop awnings
and petrol station fronts. In Papua New Guinea,
nearly half the urban population live in squatter
settlements. These areas, sometimes called
townships, consist of areas of land which are not
zoned for a specific purpose which are then settled 1.60 A general view of Hanuabada.
by people who do not own the land but construct the authorities do not wish to encourage rural-
shanty housing using scrounged materials. Unlike urban migration or the expansion of shanty areas.
many cities in Asia and South America, squatter
settlements in Papua New Guinea do not generally Most townships are located on land not wanted by
have services such as electricity, street lighting, any other users, and close to possible places of
sewerage, rubbish collection or running water, as work. These squatter settlements tend to be settled

41
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
QUESTION BANK 1F
1. Would you say that rural-urban migrants consider carefully
whether or not they will migrate? Give reasons for your
answer.

2. Do you think push factors or pull factors are more

important in influencing rural-urban migration in Papua
New Guinea?

3. What are the positive and negative effects of rural-urban

migration on the rural villages which the migrants leave
behind?

4. Make a point form list of the effects of rural-urban

migration on the towns of Papua New Guinea.
1.61 Housing for rural-urban migrants in Nine Mile, a township in
northern Port Moresby.
Economic development in Papua
by people from the same ethnic background, and
become, in effect, like a rural village moved into a
New Guinea
town. The residents in squatter settlements cannot For hundreds of years before contact with the
afford to buy, or even rent, the cheapest type of outside world, Papua New Guinea’s economy was
house, and have to make do with what they can based entirely on small-scale subsistence food
build themselves. If possible, they will use the production that provided a high degree of self-
traditional village construction materials of sago sufficiency to each village. Papua New Guinea
leaves, bamboo or black palm, but generally all that consisted of hundreds of diverse cultural groupings
will be available will be pieces of corrugated iron or which were largely independent from each other.
packing cases. They are built in no apparent Nonetheless, extensive trading networks existed
pattern, and certainly not in the neat ordered rows with products often being bartered in exchange for
that the Europeans seem to prefer. customary gifts or compensations. While the
traditional subsistence economy is still significant,
Overcrowding is a problem in the squatter
it is no longer the core of the economy.
settlements. Housing is scarce in most urban areas
of Papua New Guinea. In part, this is because the In the early 1800s, Europeans and Australians
government has deliberately built few houses in began trading with the more accessible coastal
order to discourage rural-urban migration. Papua New Guineans for products such as bêche-
However, another reason is that there is so little flat de-mer (an edible sea cucumber), turtle shell and
land available in Papua New Guinean urban areas. pearl shell. Coconut oil produced in villages was
In nearly every major town, most of the land traded to meet the increased European demand for
suitable for future urban expansion is under vegetable oils which had begun to supplant the use
customary tenure, which means it is owned by the of animal tallow. Despite the often unequal
local tribal group who do not want to part with it. exchange involved with this trade, the indigenous
The average household in a squatter settlement has people benefited from the introduction of steel tools
seven residents, compared with five residents for and other new technologies, while maintaining the
Papua New Guinean urban areas as a whole. traditional structure of their economy.
Traditional social systems tend to break down in However, when machinery was developed in 1850s
the towns. In the villages, there is usually a ‘big for large scale extraction of oil from copra, the basis
man’ who has the charisma and oratory to of the trading relationship changed. The
influence people and settle disputes. However, no indigenous technology for producing the oil was
‘big man’ would ever migrate from the Highlands made redundant, and with it the value added in the
to Port Moresby. The lack of ‘big men’ has led to processing of coconuts was lost. Eventually, it led
problems of social control among Highlanders, to village producers moving to work for wages on
since there is no-one with the ability to manage plantations established by the Europeans.
people and the social prestige necessary to settle
disputes effectively.
42
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
The early economic development of Papua New Australian aid led to the growth of an extremely
Guinea was based on the plantation system. The large government sector of employment,
main product produced on plantations was copra, stimulating a rapid increase in the rate of
although rubber, coffee and tobacco were also urbanisation. Manufacturing industries expanded,
important. Australian companies were the prime although they remained a small sector in Papua
forces in the plantation economy. Although New Guinea’s economy. Most of the
powerful within the Pacific area, these companies manufacturing establishments were foreign owned
were small-scale compared with US and UK and concentrated on the processing of primary
transnational corporations at the time. products.

Following the end of World War II in 1945, During the decades leading up to independence in
economic development became dependent on the 1975, as well as during the post-independence
expansion of agricultural production and the years, the mining sector grew in importance.
inflow of Australian government aid. Although Large-scale projects for natural resource
exports of agricultural and fisheries products rose exploitation by transnational corporations,
in value, the production of food for domestic symbolised by the giant Bougainville Copper
consumption virtually stagnated in the period up to Company, resulted in copper taking over the role of
independence in 1975 while food imports grew agriculture as the country’s chief export.
markedly during the same 20-year period.
Even today, Papua New Guinea has an economy
largely owned and managed by foreigners, with a
heavy dependence on mineral and agricultural
commodities, and a reliance on Australian
government aid. However, given the almost non-
existent capacity for local people to invest in capital
projects, this may not have been entirely negative.
Indeed, foreign companies operating in Papua
New Guinea assert that the wealth generated by
their continued activities flow on (or ‘trickle
down’) throughout the Papua New Guinean
economy, providing employment, technology,
training and management expertise.

Papua New Guinea has a low-income economy

1.62 Most manufacturing in Papua New Guinea involves the
that is heavily dependent on primary products
initial processing of primary products. At the Komun Coffee
Factory, east of Mount Hagen in the Highlands, raw coffee (agriculture and mining), with some manufacturing
beans are dried in the open air. based on initial processing of these commodities.

1.63 Processing coffee beans in the Komun Coffee factory 1.64 The highly mechanised South Pacific Brewery in Port
using basic machinery. Moresby is one of the largest factories in Papua New Guinea.

43
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Table 1.5
Economic development in Papua New Guinea

GNI GNI Life GNI GNI Life

per expect- per expect-
Year US$ capita ancy Year US$ capita ancy
billions US$ (years) billions US$ (years)

1962 0.26 130 39.72 1990 3.43 820 55.71

1963 0.28 130 39.06 1991 3.72 870 56.05

1964 0.30 140 41.22 1992 4.04 920 56.40

1965 0.34 160 42.04 1993 4.83 1,080 56.74

1966 0.38 170 42.88 1994 5.20 1,130 57.06

1967 0.42 190 43.72 1995 4.90 1,040 57.35

1.65 The RD Tuna Canning Factory near Madang is a subsidiary 1968 0.47 200 44.53 1996 4.95 1,020 57.63
of a company owned in the Philippines. It is a significant 1997 4.62 930 57.91
example of a successful foreign-owned factory in Papua New 1969 0.54 230 45.31
Guinea. 1998 4.00 780 58.19
1970 0.62 260 46.04
As the statistics in table 1.5 indicate, Papua New 1999 3.60 690 58.49
1971 0.69 270 46.73
Guinea went through a period from 1994 to 2003 2000 3.32 620 58.80
1972 0.80 310 47.38
when the size of the economy shrank in absolute
2001 3.04 550 59.14
terms. This difficult economic decade was a 1973 1.04 390 48.02
2002 2.91 510 59.50
consequence of some significant internal political 1974 1.34 490 48.64
conflicts, including a civil war in Bougainville that 2003 3.13 470 59.88
1975 1.54 550 49.27
lasted from 1988 to 1998. As a result of that conflict, 2004 3.56 540 60.27
1976 1.51 520 49.94
the world’s largest open-cut copper mine at 2005 4.53 650 60.64
Panguna was closed. The mine, which provided 1977 1.57 530 50.65
2006 7.50 770 61.00
45% of Papua New Guinea’s total export earnings, 1978 1.92 630 51.39
2007 8.83 1,070 61.31
remains closed. 1979 2.24 710 52.15
2008 11.03 1,410 61.68
Of course, GNI and GNI per capita are not the only 1980 2.53 790 52.88
2009 11.00 1,550 61.81
ways to measure economic development – 1981 2.63 790 53.53
2010 13.10 1,730 62.03
improvements in living standards also provide
1982 2.45 710 54.06
important measures of development. During the 2011 16.88 1,890 62.32
1983 2.36 680 54.45
period 1962 to 2018, life expectancy at birth 2012 19.95 2,250 62.60
increased from 39.72 years to 64.26 years. During 1984 2.39 670 54.70 2013 18.83 2,400 62.89
the same period, infant mortality decreased from 1985 2.47 670 54.85 2014 22.62 2,970 63.18
127 per thousand live births to 38 per thousand live 1986 2.68 710 54.95 2015 21.26 2,900 63.47
births. In education, only 1% of secondary school
1987 2.95 760 55.05 2016 20.29 2,670 63.74
age children attended high school in 1962,
1988 3.49 880 55.20 2017 21.61 2,500 64.01
compared with 14% by 1984; by 2018 the figure was
still only 47%, comprising 55% of males and 40% of 1989 3.60 890 55.42 2018 22.60 2,530 64.26
females attending high schools. Between 1970 and Source: World Bank data.
2018, adult literacy increased from 33% to 58% for
females and from 60% to 65% for males. mineral prices, low commodity prices for most of
the country’s exports, currency inflation, and
Agriculture still provides a subsistence livelihood depreciating exchange rates. Two of the country’s
for 85% of the population. Papua New Guinea’s largest mining operations have been particularly
reliance on primary products, like many other low- affected by challenges. Several El Niño induced
income countries, has exposed it to economic droughts have reduced power supplies and
fluctuations arising from changes in the global stopped shipments of exports from the huge Ok
economy. The factors impacting on Papua New Tedi copper mine, drastically reducing Papua New
Guinea in recent years have included falling Guinea’s export earnings. Local landowner unrest

44
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
led to power pylons supplying the Porgera gold
mine being destroyed, resulting in the closure of the
mine and a loss of 1,000 jobs. Furthermore, a series
of natural disasters in the period 2000 to 2002,
including a volcanic eruption in East New Britain
and an earthquake in East Sepik province, have
also made economic development difficult.

Disparities in Papua New Guinea today

Overall, the benefits of economic development in
Papua New Guinea have not been spread evenly.
To some extent, this is because the country’s rugged
terrain makes the cost of developing infrastructure
such as roads very high. The country has no 1.68 In many lowland areas of Papua New Guinea, rivers serve
as the main highways. These motorised dugout canoes on the
railways whatsoever, and rivers provide the major
Sepik River are loading drums of petroleum for transport to
transport network. People who live in isolated timber cutting operations upstream.

parts of the country with poor access to rivers or

roads tend to be poorer than those with access to
transport, and this affects markets and jobs.

Mining projects in Papua New Guinea have

provided high incomes for people working in
accessible areas. However, because mining is so
capital intensive, the direct benefits are limited to a
small number of people. In any case, most of
Papua New Guinea’s population are engaged in
subsistence food production, and have very little
contact with the cash economy. The main crops
grown are sweet potato, taro, yams, bananas and
sago.
1.66 Freight transport in many parts of Papua New Guinea is
confined to walking tracks because of the rugged terrain and The manufacturing sector accounts for about 10%
lack of continuous road networks. This walking track across of Papua New Guinea’s GNP. Most manufacturing
swampland joins several villages to the Sepik River.

1.67 Even main highways in Papua New Guinea are narrow and 1.69 As economic development occurs, markets develop. In
in poor condition. This view shows the main road from Palimbe this view, local growers sell surplus food at the open air market
to Wewak. in Madang.

45
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Most of the factories and plantations operating in
Papua New Guinea are either wholly or partly
foreign-owned. This is because savings are so low
in Papua New Guinea that banks do not have the
finance available to lend to local entrepreneurs for
investment. This leads to concerns among local
Papua New Guineans that too many profits are
going to foreign corporations and investors. John
Momis, a member of Papua New Guinea’s
Parliament, expressed local people’s concern that
the benefits of development were being
concentrated in the hands of just a few people:

“A small political elite is rapidly growing rich, very

1.70 This coffee factory in the Wahgi Valley illustrates the small
scale, labour-intensive initial processing of primary products that
much at the expense of the majority.
characterises much of Papua New Guinea’s manufacturing. Here I am not talking about the growing number of
Papua New Guineans who are struggling to penetrate
focuses on small-scale initial processing of mining
the presently foreign dominated economy of our
or agricultural products. Papua New Guinea faces
country. Indeed, it is much to my sorrow that there is
several challenges in developing a viable
no middle class as such.
manufacturing sector, including:
• the domestic market is small and fragmented; The small elite I am talking about comprises
politicians, senior bureaucrats and some businessmen,
• transport networks and other infrastructure such
including some large rural coffee and cocoa producers.
as water and electricity, are poorly developed;
But apart from the few big rural businessmen, most of
• there is a shortage of entrepreneurial, the elite are rich through activities that would cause
management and labour skills and experience; some political analysts to call them compradors - they
• law and order are problems, especially in urban spin off benefits of foreign investment and urban real
areas where theft, muggings and violent crime estate markets, where land is kept artificially scarce by
cause widespread fear; the very rich people reaping the benefits.
• high absenteeism due to poor medical facilities What is worse, many grow rich through the
that cannot cope with the large number and types corruption which is becoming ever more prevalent
of tropical diseases and widespread malnutrition; amongst politicians and bureaucrats.”
• high dropout rates from schools (especially
among girls) means the population is largely Income distribution
unskilled; There are major differences between at least four
• land ownership problems (because 97% of the groups in Papua New Guinea:
land is under tribal laws, industrialists often find
• A small number of expatriates (Europeans) and
it extremely difficult and costly to obtain suitable
an elite group of nationals in senior jobs. There
land); and
are about 15,000 such people, and their average
• high wages and low productivity of workers annual incomes are about 20 times higher than
compared with nearby countries in Asia. citizens in the rest of the workforce.
Like most developing countries, Papua New • About 43,000 nationals are employed by the
Guinea wishes to replace imported manufactured government, earning on average double or triple
goods with local products, wherever possible, to the national average income.
save foreign currency. This is known as import
substitution. Unfortunately for Papua New • Smallholders on oil palm estates in West New
Guinea, the challenges listed above make the Britain, probably the most affluent rural
development of viable manufacturing difficult. producers, earn about double the average annual

46
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
income, but all other rural producers would earn larger towns also have the larger average incomes.
much less. Moreover, because the major areas of cash cropping
tend to be near towns, the effect is heightened.
• It is very difficult to impute an income value on
Thus, the areas of higher incomes tend to be urban
the output of subsistence producers, but it has
and coastal.
been estimated to be about US$1,000 per annum.
The question of whether or not economic
As time goes on, the gaps between these groups
development in Papua New Guinea has been
should narrow for several reasons. First, as
evenly distributed depends on the indicator of
nationals take over expatriates’ jobs, middle and
development used. In the sections that follow, a
higher incomes will become available to more and
number of indicators will be examined: income
more local people. Second, more and more people
distribution, health care, education and
are taking up cash cropping to supplement their
government services.
subsistence production, giving them access to
increased incomes. Health status and health care services
Income differences do not have an even It is very difficult to collect accurate health statistics
geographical distribution. Because most in a low-income country such as Papua New
expatriates and government employees live in the Guinea. Although most births now occur in
towns or on resource projects, the provinces with hospitals or clinics, most deaths due to pneumonia,

1.71 An area of high incomes — the district of Waigani in Port 1.73 Rural health care — a medical clinic near Pagwi in East
Moresby, which is near Parliament House and many government Sepik, the province with the poorest Health Status Index in
offices. Papua New Guinea.

1.72 An area of low incomes — the village of Kanganamun, in 1.74 Urban health care — Port Moresby General Hospital in the
the swamps of the Sepik River floodplain. national capital.

47
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
East Sepik East Sepik, Gulf and Oro, but health status levels
Hela (shown by the red bars) vary widely.
S. Highlands
Sundaun Educational status
Chimbu
Education is seen in Papua New Guinea as a major
Enga
key to personal advancement. It is highly prized by
Jiwaka
local people, and governments have always
W. Highlands
emphasised it strongly. In Papua New Guinea, the
E. Highlands
Education Department receives the largest
Gulf
allocation of government funds of all departments.
Morobe
However, school enrolments decline sharply as the
Madang
level of education increases, and girls are especially
Oro
poorly represented at higher levels. Educational
Western
status is shown in figure 1.76. This education index
Milne Bay
is based on both adult literacy and beginning
E. New Britain
Manus
enrolments in primary and secondary schools. It
Central
shows that educational services are distributed very
Bougainville
unevenly among the provinces. The Highlands are
New Ireland
disadvantaged by a double handicap – the lateness
W. New Britain of the region’s first contact with the outside world
Port Moresby (which happened only in the 1930s), and the high
0 25 50 75 100 density of the population. On the other hand, the
1.75 Health Status Index (red) and Health Service Index coastal ports and their hinterlands have retained
(orange). The Health Status Index is based on: rural life the advantage they gained from earlier contact with
expectancy and malnutrition level, measured as the percentage the outside world.
of five year old children attending clinics and who are less than
Hela
80% weight-for-age. The Health Service Index is based on: the
number of health extension officers per thousand people, S. Highlands
population per aid post and travelling time to aid post. E. Highlands

gastroenteritis or malaria occur away from Enga

hospitals in remote villages and at home. It is W. Highlands

known that malnutrition is common in some Jiwaka

Chimbu
isolated parts of the country. Indicators of health
Sundaun
status and health services for each province are
Western
given in figure 1.75.
East Sepik
In this graph, two measures of health care are used. Gulf
Health status is based on estimates of rural life Madang
expectancy and two measures of child health. Morobe
Health service is based on the number of health Oro
extension officers and aid posts per unit of W. New Britain
population and travelling time to aid posts. Milne Bay
Bougainville
Health status is lowest in the Highlands (possibly
Central
due to malnutrition) and in some of the malarial,
Manus
swampy, lowland provinces (e.g. Sepik, Gulf), and New Ireland
highest in the island provinces where there is less Port Moresby
malaria, where food sources are more varied, and E. New Britain
where smallholder farmers are richer. However, 0 25 50 75 100
there are some strong contrasts between health 1.76 Education Status Index (green). The education status
services and health status. Health services (orange index is based on three factors: adult illiteracy, the percentage
of 7 year old children enrolled in Grade 1, and the percentage of
bars in figure 1.75) are equally well provided in
13 year old children enrolled in Grade 7.

48
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Enga
Hela
S. Highlands
E. Highlands
Chimbu
Sundaun
Jiwaka
W. Highlands
East Sepik
Madang
Western
Morobe
Gulf
Milne Bay
1.77 Saay Primary School in the Sepik village of Palimbe
Oro
teaches 190 students, and is typical of schools in rural areas in
Papua New Guinea. Students know they have to come to W. New Britain
school when the bell rings. Because the area is so swampy, the New Ireland
bell is not rung on wet days, so no students attend when it is Bougainville
raining. Manus
Central
E. New Britain
Port Moresby
0 5 10 15 20
1.80 Government officers staffing indicator (purple). This
indicator measures the number of government workers per
thousand of the population. To be included in the index,
government workers must be employed by the one of the
following departments: Education, Transport, Works and
Supplies, Primary Industry, Health, and Provincial Affairs. Up-to-
date data for Port Moresby is not available.

Government services
Government services can be analysed by looking at
the number of government officers per 1,000 people
1.78 Inside a classroom in Saay Primary School. in an area. Once again, this measure of economic
development and access to opportunities shows a
large gap between the Highlands on one hand
(disadvantaged) and the islands (advantaged) on
the other. However, as figure 1.80 shows, the
contrast is not as great as with the indicators for
health or education.

QUESTION BANK 1G
1. From your knowledge of other low-income countries, to
what extent is Papua New Guinea’s experience of economic
development typical of other countries?

2. In what ways has economic development affected Papua

New Guinea unevenly? Give specific examples of
provinces/areas in your answer.
1.79 An example of a government service building — the court 3. What factors have led to inequalities in Papua New
and land disputes centre in Tari, a remote town in Hela
Guinea’s economic development? Give specific examples of
province.
provinces/areas in your answer.

49
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
4. Make four copies of the map showing Papua New Guinea’s 1.393 billion people, or 18.3% of the world’s
provinces (figure 1.42). On each copy, colour the four population. Just over half a century earlier in 1960,
provinces with the highest standards green, and the four China’s population had been 0.667 billion people,
provinces with the poorest standards red, using one copied or 22% of the world’s population. This indicates
map to show the information in figure 1.76, another copied that China’s population is growing more slowly
map for figure 1.80 and two copies to show the two sets of
than the global average.
data in figure 1.75.
When many people first hear about the size of
5. Describe the pattern shown by the four maps you compiled
in the previous question. What does this tell you about
China’s population, they jump to the conclusion
economic development in Papua New Guinea? that China must be a very crowded country.
Although some parts of China do indeed have a
6. Whenever economic development occurs, some people gain
high population density, over half the country is
while others suffer. Has this been true for Papua New
very sparsely populated.
Guinea? Illustrate your argument with specific examples,
facts and figures. Figure 1.81 shows the distribution of China’s
population. Overall, China’s average population
CASE STUDY density is 146 people per square kilometre, almost
China triple the world average of 57 people per square
kilometre. However, just as the world average
Population distribution figure obscures the significant differences between
different parts of the world, China’s average
China has the largest population of any country in population density figure obscures variations
the world. In 2018, China’s population size was between regions across the country.

Russia

Russia

Kazakhstan

Mongolia Harbin

Ürümqi Jilin

Kyrgyzstan Shenyang
Beijing
North
Tianjin Korea
Tajikistan Taiyuan
Xining Shijiazhuang
Jinan South
Lanzhou Korea
Pakistan
Japan
Xian Zhengzhou
Nanjing
Hefei
Wuhan Shanghai
People per Chengdu Hangzhou
square kilometre Lhasa Chongqing
Nanchang
Nepal
400+ Bhutan
Guiyang
Fuzhou
100 - 399 N
Bangladesh Kunming
10 - 99 Nanning Guangzhou Taiwan
Shenzhen
1-9 India Myanmar Vietnam
Laos 0 500
<1 Kilometres
Thailand
1.81 The distribution of population in China. The green dashed line is the Hu Huanyong Line. The area west of the line has 57% of
China’s area, but just 6% of the population. The area east of the line contains 43% of China’s area and 94% of the population.

50
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Like Papua New Guinea, landforms and the Most of the inhabitants of China’s north-west are
availability of water play significant roles in ethnic minority groups such as Uygur oasis
influencing the distribution of China’s people. dwellers and Kazakh animal herders.

South-west China is sparsely populated because it The green line in figure 1.81 is known as the Hu
comprises the Tibetan Plateau, a mountainous area Huanyong Line. Developed by the Chinese
with an average altitude of 4,000 metres and several population geographer Hu Huanyong in 1935, the
peaks exceeding 6,000 and 7,000 metres. The line divides China into two parts on the basis of
Chinese refer to this region as ‘the roof of the population density. The area west of the line
world’, and most of the population lives in contains 57% of China’s land area (mainly the
mountain valleys with altitudes between 3,000 and Tibetan Plateau and the North-west), but holds 6%
4,000 metres altitude. Most of the people in this of the population. On the other hand, the area east
region are ethnic Tibetans, although large numbers of the Hu Huanyong Line contains 43% of China’s
of Han Chinese (the main ethnic group in China) area and 94% of the population.
have migrated and settled in the region since the
The area to the east of the Huanyong Line contains
Chinese took over the region in 1950.
three broad regions. China’s north-east is known
as Manchuria. It contains the heart of China’s
heavy manufacturing industry, focussed on the
cities of Shenyang and Harbin and their rich
mineral resources such as coal and oil. The region
is largely a rolling plain, and it contains 9% of
China’s population – half as many again as the area
west of the Hu Huanyong Line that contains 57% of
China’s land area.

1.82 Zhangduoxiang, a typical riverside settlement in a

mountain valley north-east of Lhasa on the Tibetan Plateau.
North-west China is also sparsely populated
because it is an arid wasteland consisting of a large
desert (the Gobi Desert). The desert lowlands are
surrounded by mountains that create an
intermontane basin that cause a rainshadow effect.

1.84 Heavy manufacturing industry in Harbin, Heilongjiang

province in China’s north-east (Manchuria).

The central zone of eastern China, which

comprises the Yellow River (Huang He) and
Yangtze River (Chang Jiang) basins and floodplains,
contains about one-third of China’s population.
Most of this region is made up of very rich, fertile
farmlands with alluvial materials transported from
the loess plateau upstream and deposited during
the annual flooding of the major rivers.

South-east China constitutes ‘tropical China’, the

1.83 Yang Tong, a sparsely settled area of the Gobi Desert, basin and delta of the Pearl River (Zhu Jiang) and
south-west of Dunhuang near the border of Gansu province and
Xinjiang Autonomous Region.
51
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Economic development in China
In order to understand China’s economy today, it is
necessary to understand some of the country’s
recent history.

Before 1911, China was ruled by a series of

emperors who had absolute control over their
empire. Regarded as the Sons of Heaven, they were
reluctant to change and modernise, and as a result,
China’s economy (which had been the most
advanced in the world for many centuries) fell into
stagnation and backwardness.

1.85 Like many other cities in China’s central eastern zone, Understandably, the Chinese people became more
Shanghai has attracted large numbers of rural-urban migrants, and more unhappy with their poverty. A series of
swelling its municipal population to about 25 million people. rebellions occurred, but it was not until 1911 that
China’s last emperor was toppled and replaced
with a republican form of government. The 1911
revolution was led by Sun Yat-sen, who later
formed a political party, the Kuomintang
(Guomindang, also known as KMT, or
Nationalists). Another party, the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) was formed in 1921.

For several years, the two parties co-operated

closely, but in 1926, differences between the two
parties led to a civil war that lasted until 1949 when
the Communists emerged victorious. The CCP
declared victory in October 1949 when their leader,
Mao Zedong, proclaimed the establishment of the
1.86 The expanse of smog-shrouded high-rise buildings in People’s Republic of China, and the KMT retreated
Shenzhen reflects the city’s high population density. Shenzhen to the offshore island province of Taiwan.
is a new and rapidly growing megacity located in the Pearl River
Delta of south-east China, adjacent to Hong Kong. Following the Communist victory, China’s
Hainan Island. This region contains fertile, well- economy entered a period of strong central control,
watered farmland and many large cities, several of where the government abolished private ownership
which have large-scale manufacturing and port of land and businesses, and the economy was co-
facilities. ordinated through a series of five-year plans. This
was a volatile period politically, and on several
In the same way that internal migration is changing occasions the economy was plunged into chaos as a
the distribution of people in Papua New Guinea, result of misguided government campaigns or
migration is having a significant impact in China. rivalries between political sub-groups. Two periods
In the three decades following 1979, China’s urban of upheaval were especially damaging when ultra-
population grew from 182 million to 622 million socialist policies led China’s economy into sharp
people. Of the 440 million increase, 100 million was decline — the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to
due to natural (biological) increase, while 340 1960, and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to
million was due to a combination of rural-urban 1976.
migration and a reclassification of some rural areas
as urban as cities have expanded in area. This The period of strong central control of China’s
makes China’s recent (and current) internal economy began to weaken when Mao Zedong died
migration the largest movement of people in in September 1976, bringing the Cultural
human history. Revolution to an end. After some political

52
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
turbulence, Mao’s position as supreme leader was
filled by Deng Xiaoping, whose approach was less
ideological and more pragmatic than Mao’s.
Deng’s famous saying became widely quoted in
China as a catalyst of economic reform through
pragmatism: “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is
black or white; if it catches mice, it is a good cat”.

China’s new leadership set the country on a course

of economic development and increasingly close
ties with Western capitalist nations in Europe,
North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Foreign
investment was allowed for the first time in certain
areas (known as Special Economic Zones, or SEZs),
1.88 A large roadside sign in Shenzhen celebrates Deng
and many inefficient factories were closed. The
Xiaoping’s pragmatic policies that paved the way for China’s
first SEZs were Shenzhen (next to Hong Kong), recent economic growth and development.
Zhuhai (next to Macau), and two port cities from In early 1992, China’s leader Deng Xiaoping toured
which many Chinese had left in earlier decades to southern China. During a visit to the Shenzhen
settle in many parts of South-east Asia, Shantou in Special Economic Zone, he proclaimed ‘to be rich is
Guangdong province, and Xiamen in Fujian glorious’. Simply by making this statement, a
province. To help these reforms proceed quickly, period of very rapid economic growth began in
more incentives for private enterprise were given China. Foreign investment and material
and profits were increased. Large numbers of incentives were encouraged and the economy
foreign tourists began to come to China, and China shifted away entirely from central planning
followed a policy of increasing openness to the towards the market system. Although many
outside world. These policies were encouraged to economists outside China said that this represented
earn money for the Chinese, to bring in new ideas, a shift towards capitalism, the Chinese government
and to show the Chinese people that China was insisted it was not capitalism, but socialism with
now fully accepted into the world community. Chinese characteristics.
10000

9000
China’s Gross National Income per Capita in US dollars

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
1.87 The red bars show Gross National Income per capita in China, 1960 to 2018, measured in US dollars. The dashed green line
shows the changes in world average GNI per capita scaled to China’s GNI per capita in 1962 as a base. Thus, if the world’s average
GNI per capita in 1962 had been US$70 (the same as China), subsequent percentage increases would have seen this figure rise to US
$1,616 by 2018. Years where China’s red bars are higher than the green indicate the period that China’s economy has out-performed
the world average.
53
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
Figure 1.87 shows China’s economic growth since
the end of the Great Leap Forward in 1960. The
acceleration in growth following Deng Xiaoping’s
1992 statement can be seen clearly. Economic
growth in the early 1990s averaged 13% per annum,
with the rate of growth in southern provinces
exceeding 25% per annum. Rapid growth has been
sustained since that time; indeed, China has
experienced the world’s highest consistent rate of
economic growth for more than three decades with
annual growth rates usually exceeding 10%.

The term ‘circular economy’ began to be used in

China around 2005 to describe an economy that
1.90 Paying insufficient attention to environmental quality during
balances economic development with
the period of rapid economic growth has resulted in severe
environmental and resources protection. The pollution in many areas of China, such as Beijing shown here.
concept arose from a growing concern about the
was far higher than in more established
decline in China’s environmental quality during the
industrialised economies, and so a new concern for
period of rapid economic growth. Since the early
the environment and resource conservation
1990s, China’s consumption of materials and
emerged. It was felt that wasteful consumption of
energy per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)
resources might have a negative impact on the
Average annual income per capita (US$)

1250-1500 1500-1750 1750-2000 2000-2250 2250-2500

2500-3000 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000-5000 5000+

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Xinjiang Liaoning
Inner Mongolia
Gansu Beijing
Tianjin
Hebei
Ningxia Shanxi
Shandong
Qinghai

Shaanxi Henan
Jiangsu

Tibet Anhui Shanghai

Sichuan Hubei
Chongqing
Jiangxi Zhejiang
Hunan
Guizhou
Fujian
Yunnan
Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan

Hainan

1.89 Average annual income per capita in each province, municipality and autonomous region of China, 2016. The national average
income per capita at this time was US$2500. Areas with reddish shadings are below the national average, while areas with greenish
shadings are above the national average. When we compare this map to figure 1.81, we see that sparsely populated parts of China
tend to be poorer, whereas wealthier areas are more densely populated.

54
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
rapid rate of growth and also place China at a
competitive disadvantage. This was especially so
as oil imports rose, water resources became
depleted and some mineral resources were over-
exploited.

Since 2010, the official goal of China’s economic

development has been xiaokang, which means
‘moderately prosperous’. The government hoped
to achieve the circular economy by requiring
manufacturing and service sector businesses to
exchange materials where one factory’s waste (such
as water, energy or materials) could serve as
another’s input. Furthermore, the government
1.93 The Lujiazui residential district in Shanghai serves the
introduced many legislative, political, technical and Pudong financial area in Shanghai, one of China’s richest areas.
financial measures to encourage development of
the circular economy, including government
subsidies and tax breaks. The government hoped
to achieve the goal of a xiaokang society by 2020.

1.94 The Maglev (magnetic levitation train) in Shanghai is a

visible symbol of coastal China’s economic advancement. The
train connects Shanghai’s Pudong Airport with the downtown
financial district, transporting over 500 passengers along the 30
1.91 Although city-dwellers are often wealthier than rural kilometre long route in just over 8 minutes at speeds of up to
dwellers, much of China’s urban population live in poor 431 kilometres per hour.
conditions, as seen here in Yichang, a city in Hubei province.
One of the consequences of China’s rapid economic
development is that most of the development has
occurred in the coastal provinces, and there has
been little impact on inland provinces. The gap
between rich and poor areas of China has never
been greater than it is now (figure 1.89).

The gap between China’s coastal and inland

provinces began to widen in the early 1980s when
the SEZs were established. Public concern in China
over the regional differences is growing in China.

There are two main reasons that the gap between

rich and poor has widened in China. First, the
coastal provinces introduced economic policies as
1.92 Chengzhong village is located in a poor, rural area of early as the beginning of the 1980s that encouraged
Guizhou, one of China’s poorest inland provinces. Houses do
foreign investment and trade. These policies led to
not have running water, so these residents wash in a small
creek that irrigates the rice fields.

55
 Chapter 1 - Patterns of population and economic development
a rapid integration into world markets, huge
inflows of foreign direct investment and the
development of a modern industrial base in these
provinces. In this way, the coastal provinces got a
head start on economic development compared
with inland provinces, and the inland provinces
have never caught up with that lead.

Second, better natural conditions in the coastal

provinces mean there is more arable land, better
conditions to develop infrastructure and better
access to the sea than the inland provinces enjoy.
Coastal locations are also better for activities such
as export-oriented processing industries, which
1.95 Advertising in the coastal city of Shenzhen emphasises
have been developing very rapidly during recent luxury consumer goods.
decades.

As a consequence of China’s rapid

economic development and the
introduction of open markets, great social
changes have taken place, especially in
China’s large cities and coastal provinces.
Traditional values and priorities are giving
way to more materialistic and more
Western priorities, including changing
spending patterns (figure 1.96). Surveys of
urban Chinese residents show that career is
more important now than family, and that
many Chinese families enjoy the trappings
of modern life such as wearing designer
clothes, eating fast food and using mobile
phones. Chinese people are increasingly
judging themselves and others by their 1.96 Chinese urban households’ annual consumption by
material possessions and their purchases. category, measured as percentages. Currency figures are in US
dollars, adjusted to constant 2010 values. CAGR = compound
QUESTION BANK 1H annual growth rate. Figures for 2020 are forecasts. Source:
McKinsey & Company.
1. What is the Hu Huanyong Line, and how does it help us
region. Look at the map carefully and answer the following
understand China’s population distribution?
questions:
2. Describe and account for China’s population distribution. a. In descending order, list the six provinces with the
highest income per capita in 2016.
3. In what ways are the explanations of China’s population
b. In ascending order, list the six provinces with the lowest
distribution (a) similar to the factors affecting Papua New
income per capita in 2016.
Guinea’s population distribution, and (b) different from the
c. State the evidence shown in the map which suggests that
factors affecting Papua New Guinea’s population
China’s coastal region is the wealthiest part of China.
distribution?
7. Identify and describe the main trends shown in figure 1.96.
4. With reference to figure 1.87, describe China’s trend of
economic growth. 8. Using figures 1.81 and 1.89, describe the relationship
between China’s population distribution and its income
5. Explain why China’s economic growth has accelerated since
distribution.
1992.
9. With reference to your answer to the previous question,
6. Figure 1.89 is a map of China showing the average income
suggest the cause-and-effect of the relationship between
per capita in each province, municipality and autonomous
population density and average incomes.

56
 Chapter
2 Changing populations
and places

2.1 Children in Songo village, Mali. In Songo and nearby villages, each family typically has six to eight children. Sub-Saharan Africa,
where this village is located, has the fastest population growth in the world. By 2050, 34% of the world’s population aged 15 and
under will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.

However, it is important not to be alarmist about

Population change rapid population growth. Even using common but
emotive terms like ‘population explosion’ can pre-
World Population Growth judge the issue. In the late 1960s, a US Biology
At first sight, the statistics on world population Professor, Paul Ehrlich, wrote a book called The
seem frightening. Global population is now about Population Bomb that opened with these words:
7.6 billion. Last year, the world’s population grew “Population control – or race to oblivion? Over-
by about 83 million people. Three billion young population is now the dominant problem in all our
people are entering their reproductive years, a personal, national, and international planning. No
figure that is equal to the entire population of the one can do rational planning, nor can public policy be
world in 1960. There are currently about 50 million resolved in any area unless one first takes into account
abortions, both legal and illegal, in the world every the population bomb... The battle to feed all of
year. A quarter of all pregnancies in developing humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of
countries end in abortion.

57
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
millions of people will starve to death in spite of any other hand, Malthus argued that if preventative
crash programmes embarked upon now... Population checks were insufficient, then positive checks
control is the conscious regulation of the numbers of would reduce the population size by catastrophic
human beings to meet the needs not just of individual means such as famine, disease or war.
families, but of society as a whole.”
At the time Malthus wrote, he believed that
Although there were famines and wars during the Britain’s population could not possibly grow
1970s and 1980s, Ehrlich’s more catastrophic beyond 10 million people. Today the United
predictions did not come to pass. In some respects, Kingdom’s population is just over 65 million and
Paul Ehrlich was echoing the predictions made by the standards of living are much higher than
the English demographer Thomas Malthus in 1798. Malthus could ever have imagined. Malthus’
Malthus argued that the earth could only support a predictions were wrong because he underestimated
finite population size because food supplies are the extent to which technology would improve
limited. He said that while the natural increase in farming yields. In the two centuries since Malthus
the human population increases in a geometric wrote, food production has increased more than
progression (1➔2➔4➔8➔ 16➔32 etc), food population, and the vast food surpluses in many
production only increases in an arithmetic developed countries show that there is still room
progression (1➔2➔3➔4➔5➔6 etc). Malthus for food production to increase. Indeed, the world
believed this was the case because the amount of currently produces enough food for every man,
land is finite, so food production could not continue woman and child to be obese. The fact that many
rising to keep pace with population growth. millions of people are still malnourished is a
problem of distribution and capacity to pay, not an
Malthus argued that when population growth
issue of production.
outstripped food supply, which he felt was
inevitable, then a correction could happen in one of Since Malthus first raised the issue of the carrying
two ways. On one hand, preventative checks capacity of the earth, many demographers (people
would lower the fertility rate. This could happen, who study population) have looked at the question
for example, if prices of food rose as it became of how many people the earth can support. In 1891,
scarcer, causing couples to delay marriage or a scholarly study by Ravenstein suggested that the
reduce the number of children they had. On the earth could support no more than 6 billion people,

2.2 The growth of world population through history.

58
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.1
Level and rate of population growth

Year 0 1000 1820 2016 0 - 1000 1000 - 1820 1820 - 2020

millions of people average annual growth rate (%)

Western Europe 24.7 25.4 132.9 397.5 0.00 0.20 0.60

Societies established by 1.2 2.0 11.2 405.5 0.05 0.21 1.91

European countries, such as
colonies

Japan 3.0 7.5 31.0 127.0 0.09 0.17 0.70

Total of Group A (above) 28.9 34.9 175.1 930.0 0.02 0.20 0.88

Latin America 5.6 11.4 21.2 632.9 0.07 0.08 1.80

Eastern Europe and Former 8.7 13.6 91.2 409.8 0.05 0.23 0.05
USSR

Asia (except Japan) 171.2 175.4 679.4 4309.0 0.00 0.17 0.91

Africa 16.5 33.0 74.2 1216.0 0.07 0.10 1.32

Total of Group B (above) 202.0 233.4 866.0 6567.7 0.01 0.16 1.00

WORLD 230.8 268.3 1041.1 7497.7 0.02 0.17 0.98

Source: Maddison, A. (2001) The World Economy. p.28

fewer than the current population. In 1925, Penck of human history for the world’s population to
suggested that the maximum should be raised to grow to 1 billion; this figure was reached in 1830.
between 7.7 to 9.5 billion people, but in 1945
It then took 100 years to add the second billion
Pearson and Harper suggested lowering the figure
(1830 to 1930), 30 years to add the third billion (1930
to 0.9 to 2.8 billion, many fewer people than the
to 1960), 15 years to add the fourth billion (1960 to
world currently supports. Other estimates have
1975) and 12 years to add the fifth billion (1975 to
varied widely, from only 7.5 million (Gilland,
1987). However, the sixth billion also took 12 years
1983), to 2 billion (Westing, 1981), under 5.5 billion
to add (1987 to 1999), indicating that the rate of
(Ehrlich, 1993), 41 billion (Revelle, 1967), and 1
population increase has begun to slow, a statistic
trillion (Marchetti, 1978). In 1981, the American
that has been reinforced as the seventh billion also
economist Julian Simon argued there is no
took 12 years to add (1999 to 2011).
meaningful limit to the size of the earth’s
population. He suggested each extra person is a It is important to understand that this growth in
resource that adds to our productive capacity, and world population has not been evenly distributed
should not be seen as a draining consumer of across the world (table 2.1).
resources. Clearly, there is no consensus on the
The growth in world population has been caused
maximum number of people the earth can support.
by a combination of death rates being lowered and
Figure 2.2 shows the growth in world population life expectancies increasing. The death rate is the
over time, together with projections to the year 2050 proportion of the population that dies in a
based on various assumptions of family sizes in the particular year. When we examine the death rate of
future. This graph shows clearly the accelerating young children who die in their first year of life, or
way in which population numbers are increasing, in the first five years of life, we refer to this as the
although not necessarily an accelerating rate of infant mortality rate. The average life expectancy
population increase. It took over one million years is the number of years that a child born in a

59
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.2 particular country in a certain year can expect to
Level and rate of population growth live. Between the years 1 and 1820, a slow lowering
Life Death Rate of average death rates was the main cause of
Expectancy per 1000 increasing population (table 2.2).
Country and Period
at Birth people in 1st
(years) year of life Since 1820, the decrease in death rates has been
much sharper, and it has been the main cause of
Roman Egypt, 33 - 258 24.0 329 population growth, offsetting the lowering of birth
England, 1301 - 1425 24.3 218 rates in the same period (table 2.3). As a
consequence of the lowering of death rates, life
England, 1541 - 1526 33.7 -
expectancies have increased greatly – perhaps the
England, 1620 - 1626 37.7 171
greatest improvement in human welfare that is
England, 1726 - 1751 34.6 195 possible. Between the year 1 and 1000, average life
England, 1801 - 1826 40.8 144 expectancy throughout the world was about 24
years. Life expectancy had risen to an average of
France, 1740 - 1749 24.8 296
only 26 years by 1820, although this figure was 36
France, 1820 - 1829 38.8 181
years in the Group A countries shown in table 2.1,
Sweden, 1751 - 1755 37.8 203 compared with 24 years in the group B countries.
Japan, 1776 - 1875 32.2 277 The changes since that time are shown in table 2.4.

Japan, 1800 - 1850 33.7 295 Just as population growth has been unevenly
Japan, 1751 - 1869 37.4 216 distributed in the past, growth is likely to be

Table 2.3
Birth rates and life expectancy, 1820 to 2018

Births per 1000 population Average life expectancy at birth (years)

1820 1900 1950 2000 2018 1820 1900 1950 2000 2018

France 3.19 2.19 2.05 1.26 1.14 37 47 65 78 83

Germany 3.99 3.60 1.65 0.96 0.95 41 47 67 77 81

Italy 3.90 3.30 1.94 0.93 0.76 30 43 66 78 83

Netherlands 3.50 3.16 2.27 1.27 0.99 32 52 72 78 82

Spain 4.00 3.39 2.00 0.92 0.84 28 35 62 78 83

Sweden 3.40 2.69 1.64 1.01 1.15 39 56 70 79 82

United Kingdom 4.02 2.93 1.62 1.30 1.14 40 50 69 77 81

Western Europe 3.74 3.08 1.83 1.00 0.99 36 46 67 78 82

average
United States 5.52 3.23 2.40 1.44 1.18 39 47 68 77 79

Japan 2.62 3.24 2.81 0.95 0.76 34 44 61 81 84

Russia 4.13 4.80 2.65 0.88 1.29 28 32 65 67 72

Brazil 5.43 4.60 4.44 2.10 1.41 27 36 45 67 75

Mexico 4.69 4.56 2.70 1.79 33 50 72 75

Latin America average 4.19 2.51 1.66 27 35 51 69 75

China 4.12 3.70 1.60 1.24 24 41 71 76

India 4.58 4.50 2.80 1.81 21 24 32 60 69

Asia average 4.28 2.30 1.48 23 24 40 66 73

Africa average 4.92 3.90 3.57 23 24 38 52 61

World 3.74 2.30 1.90 26 31 49 66 72

Source for tables 1.2 and 1.3: Maddison, A. (2001) p.29, 30
60
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.4
Average life expectancy for Group A and Group B
countries, 1000 to 2018 (years at birth)

1000 1820 1900 1950 2000 2018

Group A 24 36 46 66 78 82

Group B 24 24 26 44 64 69

World 24 26 31 49 66 72
Group A and Group B countries are defined in table 2.1.
Source: Maddison, A. (2001) p.30

unevenly distributed in the decades ahead. As

figure 2.3 shows, 90% of future population increase
will be in developing countries, the areas least able
to cope with the resource demands of additional
numbers. The increase in population numbers has
been (and will be) greatest in Asia and Africa. In
contrast, population growth in Europe seems to
have stopped and population numbers have
actually started to decline in Europe. About 80% of
the world population today lives in developing
countries. People in the industrialised countries
comprise only 20% of world population, and this
proportion seems certain to come down to 16% by 2.4 Newborn babies in a hospital nursery in Pyongyang, North
2020, even though there will be more industrialised Korea.
countries by that time. However, it is worth number of countries in Asia and Latin America
remembering that each baby born in the USA today have registered significant falls in their total fertility
will consume 80 times more resources in their rates, the annual number of births worldwide will
lifetime than a baby born today in India. remain over 132 million for several years to come.
Seventy-four countries, all from the less developed The reason is that most of these countries already
world, and including Nigeria, Iran, Ethiopia, Iraq, have a large population base, and a substantial
El Salvador, Pakistan, Guatemala, Syria, Honduras number of women there are entering their
and Nicaragua, seem certain to double their reproductive years. Three billion people will enter
populations in 30 years or less. Even though a their childbearing years within the next generation,
while only about 1.8 billion people will leave that
Industrialised Developing phase of life. This will leave a net gain of 600
countries countries
million couples who could produce 1.8 billion
children in the next generation at the current
fertility rate of about three children per woman.

To take one example, India’s total fertility rate fell

from 4.3 children per woman in 1985 to 3.2 in 1997.
However, due to its already large population size of
920 million, almost 25 million babies were born
there in 1997. India’s present fertility rate (2.2
children per woman in 2018) is still higher than
China’s rate of 1.7 children per woman and the
replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. India
is likely to overtake China as the world’s most
populous country somewhere around 2022.
2.3 Growth of world population, 1950 to 2100.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
QUESTION BANK 2A
1. Comment on Paul Ehrlich’s statement from The Population
Bomb (1969). Do you agree that ‘overpopulation is now
the dominant problem in all our personal, national, and
international planning’? Give reasons for your answer.

2. Outline Thomas Malthus’ argument, and explain why it did

not happen as he predicted.

3. Examine figure 2.2. Describe the trend in world population

shown in the graph.

4. Suggest the rationale for dividing countries into Group A

and Group B in table 2.1.

5. Draw a line graph with seven lines, one each to show the
growth in world population from 0 to 2016 in the seven
regions listed in table 2.1. Do not include lines for the
cumulative totals of Group A, Group B and the world.

6. Describe the changes shown in the average annual growth

rates displayed in the right-hand three columns of table 2.1.

7. Using table 2.3, draw a line graph showing the changes in

birth rates from 1820 to 2018 for each country and region
shown. Describe the trend you have drawn, and discuss
any significant differences between countries. Where data
is missing, leave a blank section in that part of the line 2.5 Population pyramids (age-sex diagrams) for developing
graph. countries (top) and industrialised countries (bottom).
8. Using table 2.3, draw a series of column graphs showing the described. A population pyramid with a wide base
changes in average life expectancy from 1820 to 2018 for that narrows quickly upwards represents a
each country and region shown. Describe the trend you population with a high birth rate, a high
have drawn, and discuss any significant differences proportion of young people and a rapidly growing
between countries. population. A population pyramid with steep
9. Describe the pattern shown in table 2.4. vertical sides represents an ageing population with
a low birth rate. Such population pyramids
10. In the light of what you have read here, how would you
typically have an excess of elderly females over
define ‘overpopulation’?
males because females tend to have longer life
expectancies than males.
Population structure
The structure of a population refers to the age and
sex distribution of the population. This is often
shown as a graph with the number or proportion of
each age group shown as horizontal bars from a
central vertical column that represents age groups,
as in figure 2.5. In general these graphs show males
on the left hand side of the diagram and females to
the right. These graphs are known as population
pyramids, or age-sex diagrams. The graphs can
show varying degrees of detail with the horizontal
bands commonly representing age bands of one
year, five years (as in figure 2.5), or ten years.

Population pyramids reflect past and present 2.6 Countries with wide-based population pyramids have large
numbers of children arising from a high fertility rate, as seen
demographic trends in the population being
here in Bongo, Mali.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
As a result of the difference in population growth natural increase is low, and the size of the
rates in industrialised and developing countries, a population is likely remain stable over time unless
contrasting set of population structures has there is an influx of people from elsewhere through
emerged (figure 2.5). Developing countries tend to migration. Population pyramids with a narrower
have population structures with a wide base, base are evidence of an ageing population and a
indicating that a large proportion of the population slower rate of population increase, or even a
is below 15 years of age. This has important declining population size.
implications for future population growth in these
Another way of looking at population growth
nations as the young people reach adulthood and
trends is to consider fertility rates, or the average
begin to have children of their own, and it is
number of births per woman. As figure 2.8 shows,
evidence that the population size is growing
fertility rates are very high in developing regions
rapidly. On the other hand, industrialised
such as Africa and parts of the Middle East, but low
countries have population pyramids that have a
in most industrialised regions, where some
narrower base. Because there are fewer young
countries have fertility rates below the replacement
people entering their reproductive years, the rate of

Births per
woman
7 or more

6 to 6.9

5 to 5.9

4 to 4.9

3 to 3.9

2 to 2.9

1 to 1.9

2.7 Fertility rate (births per woman), world distribution in 1960.

Births per
woman
7 or more

6 to 6.9

5 to 5.9

4 to 4.9

3 to 3.9

2 to 2.9

1 to 1.9

2.8 Fertility rate (births per woman), world distribution in 2018.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

Average
annual %
change
4.0 or more

3.0 to 3.9

2.0 to 2.9

1.0 to 1.9

0 to 0.9

Less than 0

2.9 Population growth rate (percentage increase per annum), world distribution in 1960.

Average
annual %
change
4.0 or more

3.0 to 3.9

2.0 to 2.9

1.0 to 1.9

0 to 0.9

-1.0 to -0.1

Less than -1.0

2.10 Population growth rate (percentage increase per annum), world distribution in 2018.

level of two children per family. Indeed, many of migration. Figures 2.9 and 2.10 show the changing
the countries in Europe have below-replacement distribution of population growth rates around the
fertility rates. Moldova (1.3 births per woman), world. Sub-Saharan Africa and south central Asia
Bosnia-Herzegovina (1.3), Italy (1.3), Spain (1.3) and continue to be the areas with the fastest population
Portugal (1.4) have some of the world’s lowest growth. Even in these regions, fertility fell
fertility rates. In Asia, South Korea (1.1), Hong between 1960 and 2018 in a number of countries. In
Kong (1.1), Singapore (1.2), and Japan (1.4), all have Bangladesh, it dropped from 6.7 children per
below-replacement fertility rates. When we woman to 2.1; in Turkey from 6.3 to 2.1; in
compare figures 2.7 and 2.8, we see that most (but Myanmar from 6.1 to 2.2; and in Kenya from 7.9 to
not all) countries have lower fertility rates today 3.6. The fertility level for Sub-Saharan Africa as a
than in 1960. whole, however, is still 4.8 births per woman, and
in south central Asia 2.4. The current global
Countries with high fertility rates tend to have
average is 2.4 children per woman, well above the
higher rates of population growth, which arises
replacement level.
from a combination of natural increase plus net

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
The number of countries with a below-replacement
fertility rate increased from 4 in 1960 to more than
90 today. Indeed, some demographers are claiming
that the “population explosion is over”, and there
are even concerns about a “population implosion”
as more and more countries fall below replacement
level. Some estimates suggest that between 2040
and 2050 world population will decline by a total of 2.12 The demographic transition model.
85 million. These changes are often analysed with reference to
the demographic transition model. In this model,
QUESTION BANK 2B
a society passes through four stages. In stage 1,
1. Contrast the population structures of developing and both birth rates and death rates are high, so there is
industrialised countries, and account for the differences. a small (if any) increase in population size. Stage 1
2. What is the relationship between fertility rates and rates of societies are those that are very traditional, such as
population growth? might be found in isolated regions of the
Himalayas, West Papua, central Africa and the
3. With reference to figures 2.7 and 2.8, describe the changes
interior of South America.
in the broad world pattern of fertility between 1960 and
2018. Birth rates during stage 1 are high for several
4. With reference to figures 2.9 and 2.10, describe the changes sound, logical reasons. One important factor is that
in the broad world pattern of population growth between the infant mortality rate is high and many children
1960 and 2018. die at a young age, so families often have additional
children to compensate. Children are seen as
5. With reference to figures 2.8 and 2.10, describe the
economic assets as they do useful work for the
relationship between the broad world pattern of fertility and
the broad world pattern of population growth.
family from the age of six or seven. By the time
children reach the age of 10 or 12 they are often
producing more for the family than they consume.
The demographic transition Moreover, children provide security for their
The rate of population increase in any area can be parents in old age, an important consideration in
calculated by adding the rate of natural increase countries that have no old age pension schemes.
and the rate of net migration. The natural increase The religious beliefs of people in traditional
is the difference between the birth rate and the societies also encourage large families, and even
death rate. The birth rate is the number of live where this is not the case, children may be seen as a
births per 1000 people per year, and the death rate
is number of deaths per 1000 people per year. If the
birth rate exceeds the death rate, then the total
population size will increase as long as this natural
increase is not offset by losses due to migration.

Births Natural Deaths

change

Total
population

Net
Immigrants Emigrants
migration
2.13 Families in countries at stage 1 of the Demographic
Transition Model typically have many children, who often help
with necessary tasks such as carrying water from streams to
2.11 The components of population change. The total
houses that lack running water. These children are carrying
population of an area is the balance between natural change
water in Gogoli, an isolated village in Mali.
and net migration.

65
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
sign of virility. Death rates are high because
medical care is often inadequate and because poor
sanitation allows the spread of disease.

Stage 2 occurs when death rates fall as a result of

advances in medical care and sanitation. However,
birth rates remain high because the cultural factors
that lead to high birth rates are unaltered. Because
there is a large gap between birth rates and death
rates, population grows very rapidly. For example,
in a society where the birth rate was 35 per 1000
people (i.e. 3.5%), and death rates had fallen to 20
per 1000 (i.e. 2.0%), then the rate of population
increase would be 1.5% per annum. Countries at
2.14 Many children in countries at stage 1 of the Demographic
this stage of the demographic transition include
Transition Model do not attend school, but contribute to earning
income for the family. These children are selling vegetables in Kenya, Paraguay, Afghanistan, Nepal and Ethiopia.
Abomey-Calavi, Benin.
After a while, birth rates begin to fall, and this
marks the beginning of stage 3. A fall in birth rates
often follows a fall in death rates, as farmers and
others realise that large families are no longer
necessary to compensate for a high death rate. The
birth rate may also be lowered as family planning
facilities become available, because parents come to
favour more material possessions rather than large
families, and as women become more involved in
the workforce. As the birth rate lowers, the death
rate continues to fall, although the decrease in the
death rate is less than the fall of the birth rate in
stage 3. Because the gap between the birth rate and
the death rate is closing in stage 3, the rate of
population increase slows down from stage 2, but
2.15 Children in countries at stage 1 of the Demographic
Transition Model often help with caring for younger siblings or as birth rates are still higher than death rates, the
earning income, as a young girl is doing by selling cigarettes in population continues to grow in size. Countries at
a village near Mopti, Mali.

2.17 A major factor in reducing birth rates in stage 3 countries is

2.16 The establishment of accessible medical facilities in
the availability of family planning support. This large road sign in
countries at stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
Abomey, Benin, attempts to shift thinking towards family
lowers the death rate, initiating rapid population growth. This
planning. Translated from French, the sign reads “Every child
view shows a suburban medical clinic in Ambohitravao, an outer
you plan is a child you win. Let’s plan births, let’s plan our lives”.
suburb of Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital city.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
stage 3 of the demographic transition include
Malaysia, Israel, China and Chile.

Stage 4 is reached when both birth rates and death

rates are low. Like stage 1, the small gap between
birth rates and death rates in stage 4 gives a slowly
growing or declining population. This stage has
been reached in several countries, especially in
Europe, including Bulgaria, Latvia, Russia,
Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Today,
Europe has a larger percentage of older people than
any other continent (20% of the population over 65
years), and for this reason has a higher average
death rate (10 deaths per 1000 people) than any
continent other than Africa. The countries of 2.19 Age-sex distribution of population in the Netherlands, 1850
Eastern Europe that are emerging from to 2050.
communism into capitalism, such as Russia,
Ukraine and Latvia, are experiencing a gradual
increase in death rates, largely due to the growing
pressures of economic transition which have
increased the rates of suicides and deaths caused by
excessive alcoholism.

2.18 In countries at stage 4 of the Demographic Transition

Model, many places often associated with children’s activities
such as beaches are dominated by the presence of adults, as
seen here at Manly Beach in Sydney, Australia.
The demographic transition model is based on
Europe’s experience through its pre-industrial
phase before the late 1700s (stage 1), through the
Industrial Revolution in the early 1800s (stage 2),
the expansion of manufacturing through to the
1960s (stage 3) and post-industrialisation (stage 4).
The demographic transition leads to changes in a
country’s population structure as can be seen in the 2.20 This sign on the front of the City Council building in
case of the Netherlands (figure 2.19). Georgetown, capital city of Guyana, reflects the significant
concern about HIV/AIDS and the impact it is having on death
Countries in other parts of the world such as Asia rates, especially among vulnerable groups such as young
and South America seem to be passing through the women, children, sex workers, men who have sex with men and
stages of the demographic transition much more intravenous drug users.

67
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
quickly than Europe. The demographic transition
gives great hope to those people who are concerned
about the rapid population growth in poorer
countries, as it seems to suggest that as people
become more affluent they will voluntarily reduce
their family sizes.

Although the demographic transition model

describes the experience of many places around the
world, it is possible that other countries in the
future will not follow the pattern predicted. For
example, most parts of Africa are at stage 2 of the
demographic transition at present, and in the years
ahead we would expect their birth rates to drop
2.21 Countries with either large numbers of children, or large
dramatically as the death rates continue falling
numbers of elderly people, or both, have high dependency
slowly as they move into stage 3. However, ratios. This village with many children is beside the Niger River
Rwanda, Burundi and the Central African Republic in Mali.
in Africa, and Iraq and Syria in western Asia, have
seen their death rates increase due to conflict. In Australia, the calculation using 2018 figures
Furthermore, the spread of AIDS is increasing would be as follows:
death rates quite dramatically in Africa, especially
Total population size = 24,992,370 people
in Swaziland (Eswatini), Lesotho, Botswana, South
Africa and Zimbabwe. It is estimated that without Percentage of people under 15 years = 19%
the deaths caused by AIDS, the population of
Percentage of people 15 to 65 years = 65%
southern Africa would have been about 25% more
than it is today. AIDS has also sharply reduced the Percentage of people over 65 years = 16%
life expectancy of people in Africa, and life
Therefore the number of people within the
expectancy in southern and eastern Africa is now
dependent age range was (19 + 16)% of 25.0 million,
estimated at about 50 years, nearly nine years lower
or 8,747,330 people (rounded off to 8.7 million).
than an earlier UN projection a decade ago.
The number of working age people was 65% of 25.0
Dependency ratios million, or 16,245,040 people (rounded off to 16.2
million).
When a country has a declining population, as
some countries in Europe are now experiencing, it Therefore, Australia’s dependency ratio was:
places great strains on social security and pension 8.7 x 100
funds. This is because an increasing proportion of 16.2
the population become dependent on the wealth or 53.7%. This means that for every 100 people of
produced by a declining workforce. The working age, there were 46.3 people dependent on
dependency ratio attempts to quantify this impact. them. Back in 1975, Australia’s dependency ratio
For the purposes of international comparisons, the had been 57%, so although the proportion of
economically active, or working, population is elderly people has increased since 1975, it has been
usually defined as those between the ages of 15 and more than offset by a decline in the proportion of
65 years of age. The dependent population is school-age children.
defined as those under 15 or over 65 years of age.
QUESTION BANK 2C
The dependency ratio can therefore be calculated
using the formula: 1. Use the data in the table at the top of the next page to
Number of dependent people x 100 calculate the dependency ratio for each country shown
Number of people of working age (except Australia which is shown in the text as an
example):

68
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Size in % % %
8. Why do developed nations such as the United Kingdom and
Country and its Japan have higher death rates than developing countries
millions under 15 - over
population 2018 15 65 65 such as China and Iran?
Australia 25.0 19 65 16 9. Three developing countries listed in the table for question 4
China 1,372.7 18 71 11 are Papua New Guinea, Swaziland (Eswatini) and Niger.
Suggest reasons for the different rates of population growth
Iran 81.8 24 69 7 in those three countries.
Japan 126.5 13 60 27
10. How reliable do you think the demographic transition is in
Mali 19.1 48 50 2 predicting future changes in population in developing
countries?
Niger 22.4 50 47 3

Papua New Guinea 8.6 36 61 3

Population momentum and world
Qatar 2.8 14 85 1
population growth
Singapore 5.6 12 76 12
As we saw in figures 2.7 and 2.8, total fertility is
United Kingdom 66.5 18 64 18
declining in most countries of the world. Even
2. Select three countries with contrasting dependency ratios when this occurs, however, there is a lag period
from the previous question, and discuss the implications of before the rate of natural increase declines. This is
the dependency ratios on the provision of services such as because children and youths who have already
schools, hospitals and transport in the countries selected. been born but who have not yet reached
3. Outline the main characteristics of each stage of the
childbearing age give the population momentum to
demographic transition model. continue growing. Population momentum is the
tendency for a population to continue growing
4. The birth rates and death rates for selected countries are even after the time that fertility has fallen to
given in table below for the year 2018. For each country,
replacement level. Population momentum occurs
calculate the rate of population increase.
when a population contains quite high proportion
Birth rate Death rate of people at or before their childbearing years.
Country (births per 1,000 (deaths per
people) 1,000 people) The population momentum factor (PMF) is
calculated by multiplying the crude birth rate
Australia 12 7
(CBR) with the average life expectancy at birth
China 12 7 (LEB). A PMF of 1 indicates that natural increase is
Iran 19 5 not contributing to population growth. A PMF
Japan 8 11
greater than 1 means there is positive momentum
in the population that will lead to future growth,
Mali 42 10
while a PMF of less than 1 means there is negative
Niger 47 9 momentum, or a high probability that the
Papua New Guinea 27 8 population will decline in size. The higher the PMF,
the greater will be the population momentum for
Qatar 10 1
that country.
Singapore 9 5
The population momentum figures for a selection
Swaziland (Eswatini) 27 10
of countries are shown in table 2.5. The figures are
United Kingdom 11 9 calculated using the formula PMF = CBR x LEB.
5. Give three examples of countries (or regions) at each stage of Thus, the PMF for Ethiopia is 0.0328 x 66, or 2.165.
the demographic transition. This is a fairly typical situation for many countries
6. Draw a sketch of the shape of the population pyramid you in Africa where the population experiences
think would apply at each stage of the demographic relatively short life expectancies but which
transition. continues to grow because of high fertility rates.

7. What causes the change between each stage of the Vietnam, also shown in table 2.5, is experiencing a
demographic transition? different situation. Vietnam has experienced very

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.5
Demographic characteristics and population momentum for selected countries (data in last 3 columns refers to 2018)
Crude Birth
Estimated Estimated 2050 Life Population
Population Rate (CBR)
Countries are listed in Population Population population as Expectancy at Momentum
2018 in births per
descending order of HDI 2025 2050 a multiple of Birth (LEB) in Factor
(millions) 1000
(millions) (millions) 2018 years (PMF)
population

VERY HIGH HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Norway 5.3 5.7 6.8 1.28 10.7 83 0.888

Australia 25.0 26.8 33.2 1.33 12.4 82 1.017

United States 327.2 343.3 389.6 1.19 11.8 79 0.932

Japan 126.5 124.3 108.8 0.86 7.6 84 0.638

South Korea 51.6 52.2 50.5 0.98 7.0 83 0.581

Saudi Arabia 33.7 37.8 45.1 1.34 18.3 75 1.373

Russia 144.5 142.6 132.7 0.92 12.9 72 0.929

HIGH HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Iran 81.8 86.7 93.6 1.14 19.0 76 1.444

Turkey 82.3 86.1 95.6 1.16 16.3 77 1.255

Mexico 126.2 141.1 164.3 1.30 17.9 75 1.343

Brazil 209.5 220.4 232.7 1.11 14.1 75 1.058

China 1,392.7 1,438.8 1,364.5 0.98 12.4 76 0.942

Uzbekistan 33.0 35.1 41.0 1.24 22.1 71 1.569

Moldova 3.5 3.9 3.3 0.94 10.3 72 0.742

MEDIUM HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

South Africa 57.8 61.8 72.8 1.26 20.9 64 1.338

Vietnam 95.5 102.8 114.6 1.20 17.0 75 1.275

Bolivia 11.4 12.4 15.9 1.39 22.1 71 1.569

India 1,352.6 1,451.8 1,659.0 1.23 18.1 69 1.249

Kenya 51.4 60.1 95.5 1.86 29.3 66 1.934

Cambodia 16.3 17.8 22.0 1.35 22.9 69 1.580

Pakistan 212.2 226.8 306.9 1.45 28.6 67 1.916

LOW HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Papua New Guinea 8.6 9.6 13.9 1.62 27.4 64 1.754

Nigeria 195.9 233.7 410.6 2.10 38.4 54 2.074

Uganda 42.7 55.1 105.7 2.48 39.0 63 2.457

Malawi 18.1 23.3 41.7 2.30 34.6 63 2.180

Ethiopia 109.2 126.1 190.9 1.75 32.8 66 2.165

Yemen 28.5 33.6 48.3 1.69 31.0 66 2.046

Burkina Faso 19.8 24.0 43.2 2.18 38.4 61 2.342

Niger 22.4 29.1 68.5 3.06 46.5 62 2.883

Sources: World Bank and Population Reference Bureau data.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
rapid economic development since the early 1990s,
and as we expect from the typical trends of the
demographic transition, it has seen a large decline
in population fertility. However, Vietnam’s
population continues to grow because of the
increase in life expectancy which has accompanied
the improving living standards.

Japan has a momentum factor of 0.638, which is

well below 1, suggesting that Japan is confronting
the challenges of a declining population. Like
many industrialised countries that experience both
declining birth rates and increasing life 2.22 World population growth rate, 1950 to 2050.
expectancies, Japan has a large elderly population As a result of all the factors described so far in this
that is supported by welfare programs that must be chapter, the world population growth rate has been
funded through income taxes. As the number of slowing in recent decades, and this trend is
people in the working population declines, Japan expected to continue (figure 2.22). This does not
will increasingly struggle to maintain its economic mean that world population size will decline,
growth as well as providing for the needs of its merely that its rate of increase will slow down.
elderly population.
QUESTION BANK 2D
A simpler and less sophisticated way of examining
1. Use the statistics in the table below to calculate the
the pace of population growth is to look at a
population momentum factor for each country listed.
population’s doubling time. Doubling time is the
length of time it takes for a population to double in Crude birth rate Life expectancy
size assuming a constant growth rate. To calculate Country (births per 1,000 at birth
people) (years)
doubling time, we use the formula that is
commonly known as the rule of 70, which is to Argentina 17 76
divide the number 70 by the population growth Benin 37 61
rate expressed as a percentage, i.e.
Bulgaria 9 75
dt = 70 / r
where dt is doubling time and r is the rate of Canada 10 82

population growth. Germany 10 81

Applying this formula, the population of a country Israel 21 83

with an annual growth rate of 2% (as is the case in Liberia 33 63

Egypt) would double every 35 years (70/2). The
Mali 42 58
population of a country with a growth rate of 1%
per annum (such as Argentina) would double every Russia 13 72

70 years (70/1). A population growth rate of 0.1% Singapore 9 83

per annum (such as Georgia) would take 700 years United Kingdom 11 81
to double its population size (70/0.1), assuming
2. With reference to the statistics you calculated in the
present trends were to remain constant. previous question, comment on the likely future trends of
population growth in each of the countries listed.
If a country has a negative rate of population
change, then the formula will give the halving time 3. The figures in parentheses after the names of each of the
for the population (or the number of years it will following countries show their population growth rates.
take for the population size to reduce to 50% of its For each country, calculate the doubling time of their
present number, assuming the rate of change population assuming the current rate of growth remains
remains constant). Therefore, with an annual rate constant: ; Chad (3.0%); China (0.5%); Cuba (0.1%);
Greece (-0.3%); Iran (1.4%); Lebanon (0.5%); Niger
of population change of -0.5%, Ukraine’s
(3.8%); Nigeria (2.6%); Oman (3.4%); Sri Lanka (1.0%);
population has a halving time of 140 years (70/0.5).
Syria (-1.0%); Tanzania (3.0%); Zimbabwe (1.4%).

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
CASE STUDY completely suppressed, the legal system had
disintegrated, and reports from the time say that
Population change in Cambodia the people were so traumatised that no-one even
Cambodia is a kingdom located in South-east Asia laughed or smiled. When the Khmer Rouge regime
east of Thailand, south of Laos and west of was overthrown, only 69 doctors and one lawyer
Vietnam. It is a relatively small country with a land were found to have survived. Cambodia had to re-
area of just over 181,000 square kilometres and a build after being sent back to a completely pre-
population of about 16 million people. industrial and almost iron-age society.

In many ways, Cambodia’s population is typical of Figure 2.25 shows the changes in Cambodia’s
developing countries in Asia and Africa. The population size and population growth rate during
annual growth rate of its population is 1.5%, which the period from 1960 to the present day, including
gives a doubling time of just under 47 years. This the notorious Khmer Rouge period. In the period
is a considerably faster rate of growth than the following the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, there
world’s population as a whole, which is growing at
an annual rate of 1.1%, a doubling time of 64 years.

In 1960, Cambodia’s population numbered 5.7

million people. The growth of Cambodia’s
population since that time to its present figure of
about 16 million has not been smooth or consistent.
From 1975 to 1979 Cambodia was controlled by a
revolutionary regime known as the Khmer Rouge
that implemented extreme policies modelled on the
Chinese Great Leap Forward of 1958 to 1960.

Under the Khmer Rouge, the country was re-named

Democratic Kampuchea and the calendar was re-set
to begin in Year Zero (1975). Cambodia’s cities 2.23 Choeung Ek, on the outskirts of Cambodia’s capital city
were evacuated and the population was forced to (Phnom Penh) is also known as ‘the Killing Fields’ because it was
work on large-scale rural collective projects, one area where thousands of prisoners were taken to be
executed in mass graves by smashing their skulls with farming
western medicine was banned, money was
tools under the Khmer Rouge regime. Bones of many of the
eliminated, books were burned, and professional executed people have been exhumed and are on display as a
workers such as doctors, teachers, lawyers and memorial to this suffering.
engineers were especially targeted. It is not known
precisely how many people were killed during the
Khmer Rouge control of Cambodia, but estimates
range from one to two million people of the then-
population of 7.3 million people. The deaths
occurred through starvation, over-work, and
extermination for political or ethnic reasons.

When the Khmer Rouge regime was overthrown by

invading Vietnamese forces in 1979, the country
was in complete disarray. Most of the people were
malnourished, one-third of the population suffered
from malaria, there was no network to distribute
food or other goods, irrigation systems had
disintegrated, many buildings had been destroyed, 2.24 Tuol Sleng, a high school in Phnom Penh, was converted
hospitals had ceased to function, the cities were into a torture centre for interrogations under the Khmer Rouge
as well as being one of the Khmer Rouge’s 150 execution
empty, there were no transport or financial systems,
centres. About 20,000 people were killed in Tuol Sleng, each
traditional culture and religion had been almost of whom was photographed for documentation purposes. The
school is now a museum to remember the genocide.

72
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
18
4

16 3
Population size (millions of people)

14
2

Population change, annual %

1
12

0
10
-1

8
-2

6 -3

4
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
2.25 Changes in Cambodia’s total population size from 1960 to 2018 (maroon bars and left axis), and Cambodia’s population growth
rate from 1960 to 2018 (black curve and right axis).

was a baby boom as the annual rate of change in era will continue to be reflected for many years as
Cambodia’s population rose rapidly from a low the 0-9 cohort in 1980 rises through the population
point of -3.4% in 1978 to a peak of 3.8% in 1984 (a pyramids, resulting in (for example) truncated bars
doubling time of just 18 years). The rate of growth for the 60-69 age group in the 2040 population
of Cambodia’s population slowed after that peak, pyramid.
but the total population size passed 10 million
The changing fertility rate of Cambodia’s
people in 1994.
population reflects the political and economic
Figure 2.26 shows the past and projected changes that have occurred in the country. In 1960,
population structure in Cambodia that has resulted Cambodia’s fertility rate was 7.0, meaning that the
from these changes. In the 1960s, Cambodia’s age- average Cambodian woman bore seven children.
sex structure showed the wide base that is typical The fertility rate was already declining before the
of developing nations with a rapidly growing Khmer Rouge period, and it fell to 5.6 in 1977.
population. The age-sex pyramid for 1980 shows Following the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, the
Cambodia’s population structure at the conclusion fertility rate increased once again, rising to a peak
of the Khmer Rouge era, where the population aged of 6.4 in 1984. Since that time, the fertility rate has
under 10 is much less than expected because of the been declining steadily. By 2000, the fertility rate
reduced birth rate and large number of children’s was 3.8, and by 2017 it had fallen to 2.5.
deaths. By 2000, the post-Khmer Rouge baby boom
Average life expectancy in Cambodia has followed
was reflected in the wide base of the population
a similar trend. In 1960, the average life expectancy
pyramid, but the impact of the Khmer Rouge
at birth in Cambodia was 41.2 years. This figure
period was still evident in the truncated bars in
was rising steadily, but began to decline sharply as
20-29 age group (which was the same group of
Cambodia slipped into civil war in the early 1970s.
people as the 0-9 bands in the 1980 pyramid).
Average life expectancy reached a low point of just
In the years ahead to 2050, it is expected that 19.3 years under Khmer Rouge control in 1977.
Cambodia’s population pyramids will re-shape With the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge and the
with narrower bases reflecting reduced population return of peace, average life expectancy began to
growth rates and an ageing population. The rise sharply once again. In 1985, Cambodia’s
reduced number of births during the Khmer Rouge average life expectancy passed 50 years of age for

73
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Male 1960 Female Male 1980 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900 900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900
Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands) Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands)

Male 2000 Female Male 2020 Female

100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900 900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900
Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands) Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands)

Male
2040 Female Male
2050 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900 900 720 540 360 180 0 0 180 360 540 720 900
Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands) Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands)

2.26 Actual and predicted changes in Cambodia’s population structure from 1960 to 2050.

the first time. It reached 54.8 years in 2000, and by reduce this figure significantly because the
2018 it had risen to 69.4 years, reflecting the country’s medical system had been destroyed. The
improved economic and agricultural situation in infant mortality rate fell below 100 deaths per 1,000
the country. live births for the first time in 1982, but it hovered
in the high 80s through the 1990s, falling below 80
The infant mortality rate has also changed in a way
for the first time in 2001. By 2018, the improving
that has been consistent with Cambodia’s other
quality of medical care and the training of doctors
demographic changes. In 1975, Cambodia had one
had reduced the infant mortality rate to 24 deaths
of the world’s highest infant mortality rates at 178.2
per 1,000 live births, less than the world’s average
deaths per 1,000 live births. Even after the collapse
infant mortality rate of 29 per 1,000 live births.
of the Khmer Rouge regime, it took some time to

74
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Detailed data on these indicators of population Table 2.6
change can be seen in table 2.6. Indicators of population change in Cambodia
1960 to 2017
Despite the improvements, many people in
Cambodia are deeply impoverished. In the Life Life
Infant Infant
aftermath of Khmer Rouge control, hundreds of Fertility expect- Fertility expect-
Year Mortal- Year Mortal-
rate ancy rate ancy
orphanages were established in Cambodia to cater ity Rate ity Rate
(years) (years)
for the welfare of children whose parents had been
1960 6.97 n.a. 41.2 1990 5.60 85.4 53.5
killed. Although fewer children in Cambodia are
now orphaned, the orphanages are still used to care 1961 6.96 n.a. 41.4 1991 5.42 85.5 53.8
for children from poor families, even if the parents 1962 6.95 n.a. 41.5 1992 5.24 85.7 54.2
are still alive. The orphanages are seen as a way for 1963 6.94 n.a. 41.7 1993 5.05 86.2 54.4
poor parents to give their children a better start in
1964 6.91 n.a. 41.9 1994 4.87 86.9 54.8
life, including good food and a basic education. In
this way, many orphanages in Cambodia are filling 1965 6.87 n.a. 42.1
1995 4.69 87.6 55.1
the role of a social welfare system in wealthier, 1966 6.81 n.a. 42.3
1996 4.50 88.2 55.6
more developed countries. 1967 6.75 n.a. 42.5
1997 4.33 88.2 56.1
1968 6.67 n.a. 42.5
1998 4.15 87.1 56.8
1969 6.57 n.a. 42.4
1999 4.00 84.5 57.5
1970 6.47 n.a. 41.6
2000 3.81 80.4 58.4
1971 6.33 n.a. 39.7
2001 3.65 74.7 59.2
1972 6.18 n.a. 36.8
2002 3.52 68.3 60.2
1973 6.00 n.a. 32.8
2003 3.41 62.3 61.1
1974 5.83 n.a. 28.3
2004 3.31 57.4 62.1
1975 5.58 178.2 23.9
2005 3.23 53.3 63.0
1976 5.56 166.4 20.7
2006 3.16 49.8 63.8
1977 5.55 155.4 19.3
2007 3.09 46.5 64.6
1978 5.60 143.3 20.1
2.27 Children receive a basic education in the House of the 2008 3.02 43.3 65.2
1979 5.71 130.0 23.0
Rainbow Bridge, an orphanage in Phnom Penh for orphans and
2009 2.95 40.5 65.8
children from poor backgrounds who are HIV-positive. 1980 5.87 117.3 27.8
2010 2.88 37.7 66.6
1981 6.04 106.5 33.5
QUESTION BANK 2E 1982 6.19 98.1 39.2
2011 2.80 35.0 67.0

1. Explain why the trend of population change in Cambodia 1983 6.30 92.3 44.1 2012 2.74 32.6 67.5
has not followed the traditional pattern of the demographic 2013 2.68 30.5 67.9
1984 6.34 89.0 47.9
transition model.
1985 6.31 87.5 50.4 2014 2.64 28.9 68.3
2. Outline the impact of the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia
1986 6.23 86.6 51.8 2015 2.59 27.5 68.6
on (a) total population size, (b) population growth rate, (c)
fertility rate, (d) average life expectancy, (e) infant 1987 6.10 86.0 52.5 2016 2.56 26.2 69.0
mortality rate, and (f) the shape of Cambodia’s population 1988 5.94 85.6 52.9 2017 2.53 25.1 69.3
pyramid in 1980, 2000 and 2020.
1989 5.78 85.5 53.2 2018 2.50 24.0 69.5
3. To what extent are Cambodia’s population structure and
Source: World Bank data. n.a. = no data available.
population changes today typical of developing countries?

4. Use the data in table 2.6 to draw (a) a line graph of 5. In 2018, Cambodia’s crude birth rate was 23 per 1,000
Cambodia’s fertility rate from 1960 to 2018, and (b) a bar population, the death rate was 6 per 1,000 population, and
graph of Cambodia’s life expectancy at birth from 1960 to the population growth rate was 1.5%. Use this information
2018. Account for the changes evident in each of the two to calculate Cambodia’s (a) population momentum, and (b)
graphs you have drawn. population doubling time.

75
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
CASE STUDY
Population change in Russia
With an area of just over 17 million square
kilometres that spans northern Asia and north-
eastern Europe, Russia is the world’s largest
country in terms of land area. For most of last
century, Russia was the largest component republic
within the Soviet Union (also known as the USSR,
or Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), which had
an area of 22.4 million square kilometres until it
disintegrated into 15 separate countries in late 1991.

In 2018, Russia’s total population was 144.5 million

2.29 In the most densely populated parts of Russia (European
people, making it the 9th most populous country in
Russia), population numbers are shrinking. One factor is the
the world. Of this number, 78% lived in European declining rate of marriages due to the deteriorating state of the
Russia, which makes up 23% of the country’s area. national economy. Unlike many Western countries, only 10% to
Overall, Russia’s population density is 9 people per 15% of Russians live together prior to entering into marriage.
square kilometre, making it one of the world’s most The situated is further complicated because there are 86 men
for every 100 women in the 15-65 age category.
sparsely populated countries. However, people are
distributed unevenly; the population density of segment of Russia than in Europe, where the
European Russia is 29 people per square kilometre population size is declining in many areas. The
compared with 2 people per square kilometre in areas that are experiencing positive population
Asian Russia. As figure 2.28 shows, the population growth (mainly in Asia) are the areas with fewer
is growing faster in the sparsely populated Asian ethnic Russians and more minorities.

Population growth rate per annum (%) -0.8 to -0.6 -0.6 to -0.4 -0.4 to -0.2 -0.2 to 0 0 to 0.2

Norway 0.2 to 0.4 0.4 to 0.6 0.6 to 0.8 0.8 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.2 1.2+

Sweden

Finland

Poland

Belarus

pe
Moscow ro
Eu sia
Ukraine A
R U S S I A

Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
China
Iran
Uzbekistan Japan
Mongolia
0 1000
China North Korea
Kilometres Kyrgyzstan

2.28 Rates of natural population change in Russia in 2018, measured as population growth rate % per annum. The national average
rate of change is 0.2% p.a.

76
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
3 rates and a rise in death rates that continued
Collapse of the USSR
through the 1990s, as shown in figure 2.30. As
2.5
death rates rose to exceed birth rates, Russia
entered a period of declining population size, as
2
Births shown in figure 2.31. Population size continued to
fall until 2008 when it was 142.7 million. Since that
% per annum

1.5
Deaths time, a slow economic recovery and improving
1 health care enabled birth rates to rise to a level that
exceeded the death rate, allowing the population to
0.5 grow very slowly at a rate of about 0.19% per
Natural change
annum until 2016 when the growth rate became
0
zero.
-0.5 While Russia’s birth rate is now fairly typical of
industrialised countries, its death rate is
-1
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 considerably higher. The high death rate arises
2.30 Birth rate, death rate and rate of natural change in
from the country’s high rate of heart disease, an
population in Russia, 1960 to 2018. abnormally high accident rate and under-resourced
Unlike Cambodia, whose population is fairly health care in some parts of the country. A further
typical of a developing country, Russia shows many factor is Russia’s abnormally high rate of alcohol
characteristics that are typical of an industrialised consumption. During the 1990s, 52% of deaths in
economy’s population. However, like Cambodia, Russia in the 15-54 age cohort were caused by
political factors have interfered with the typical alcohol compared with the world average of 4%.
trend of population change that is predicted by the Although deaths due to alcohol have declined a
Demographic Transition Model. little since the 1990s, this remains a highly
significant factor in Russia.
Russia’s population size peaked at 148.7 million in
1991, just before the breakup of the Soviet Union. In an attempt to compensate for Russia’s largely
The disintegration of the Soviet Union caused stagnant population growth, the government has
economic difficulties that triggered a fall in birth simplified immigration for labourers from former
150
1.5

145
1.2

140
Population size (millions of people)

0.9
Population change, annual %
135
0.6
130

0.3
125

0
120

-0.3
115

110 -0.6
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
2.31 Changes in Russia’s total population size from 1960 to 2016 (maroon bars and left axis), and Russia’s population growth rate from
1960 to 2018 (black curve and right axis).

77
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Male 1990 Female Male 2000 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

Male
2010 Female Male
2020 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

Male 2030 Female Male 2040 Female

100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

Male 2050 Female

100+
95 - 99
90 - 94
85 - 89
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
7.0 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0 0 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.0
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

2.32 Changes in Russia’s population structure from 1990 to 2050.

78
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan. It is believed that about 7 million
foreign workers are resident in Russia, plus an
estimated 4 million undocumented migrants who
have settled illegally.

Figure 2.32 shows the past and projected

population structure in Russia that has resulted
from these changes. In 1990, Russia’s age-sex
structure showed the narrow base that is typical of
industrialised nations with a slowly growing
population. The truncated bars for the 45-49 age
group reflect the loss of life and dislocation caused
by World War II (or the Great Patriotic War as it is
known in Russia) which afflicted the nation from 2.33 As the population pyramids in figure 2.32 show, Russia
has an ageing population. According to population projections,
1941 to 1945. As the smaller-than-expected number
the most numerous age cohort in 2050 will be people aged
of children born in 1941-45 reached child-bearing 60-64.
age around 1965 to 1970, a smaller-than-expected
changes. In 1960, Russia’s fertility rate was 2.5,
number of children were born during that period
meaning that the average Russian mother bore
also, reflected in the truncated bars in the 15-19 and
either two or three children. The fertility rate was
20-24 age cohorts. The surplus of females over
declining slowly before the Soviet Union collapsed,
males in the 1990 population pyramid, especially in
but it fell sharply in the immediate post-Soviet
age groups that were 55 and over, is another
years to 1.2 in 1999. As the country stabilised, the
consequence of the impact of World War II on
fertility rate increased once again, but it is still a
Russia.
relatively low 1.8 (compared to the world average
The age-sex pyramid for 2000 shows the impact of of 2.4).
the lowered birth rates following the break-up of
Average life expectancy in Russia has followed a
the Soviet Union. The population aged under 10 is
similar trend. In 1960, the average life expectancy
much less than expected because of the reduced
at birth in Russia was 66.1 years, considerably
birth rate in the immediate post-Soviet era. By
better than the world average at the time of 52
2010, the birth rate had increased a little, but the
years. Russia’s figure was rising slowly, but began
impact of the low birth rate during the 1990s can be
to decline after the breakup of the Soviet Union in
seen in the truncated bars in the 10-19 age cohorts.
1991. Average life expectancy reached a low point
In this same population pyramid, the reduced birth
of 64.5 years in 1994, but it has been rising slowly
rate in 1965-1970 can be seen in the truncated bar in
since that time. Average life expectancy in Russia
the 40-44 age cohort, while the low birth rate from
reached 70 years for the first time in 2012, but it has
1941 to 1945 is evident in the 65-69 age cohort.
remained fairly stagnant since that time. Unlike the
In the years ahead to 2050, it is expected that situation in 1960, Russia’s average life expectancy is
Russia’s population pyramids will continue to now the same as the world average (72 years).
develop with the narrow base that reflects slow or
The infant mortality rate has followed a steadier
stagnant population growth rates and an ageing
trajectory in Russia than fertility rate or life
population. The reduced number of births during
expectancy. In 1970, Russia had an infant mortality
the post-Soviet decade will continue to be reflected
rate 35.4 deaths per 1,000 live births, substantially
for many years as the 0-9 cohorts in 2000 rise
better than the world average at the time of 97.6
through the population pyramids, resulting in (for
deaths per 1,000 live births. This figure was
example) truncated bars for the 40-49 age group in
improving steadily, and by the time the USSR
the 2040 population pyramid.
disintegrated in 1991, the figure was 21.9 deaths per
The changing fertility rate of Russia’s population 1,000 live births (compared with a world average in
reflects the country’s political and economic that year of 62.1 deaths per 1,000 live births). There

79
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
was a slight rise following the collapse of the Soviet QUESTION BANK 2F
Union to 22.2 in 1994-95, but it has continued to
1. Explain why the trend of population change in Russia has
improve since that time. By 2018, Russia’s infant
not followed the traditional pattern of the demographic
mortality rate had fallen to 6.1 deaths per 1,000 live
transition model.
births, considerably less than the world’s average
infant mortality rate of 29 per 1,000 live births. 2. Outline the impact of the breakup of the Soviet Union on (a)
Detailed data on these indicators of population total population size, (b) birth rate, (c) death rate, (d)
change can be seen in table 2.7. population growth rate, (e) fertility rate, (f) average life
expectancy, (g) infant mortality rate, and (f) the shape of
Table 2.7 Russia’s population pyramid in 2000, 2020 and 2040.
Indicators of population change in Russia
3. To what extent are Russia’s population structure and
1960 to 2018
population changes today typical of industrialised nations?
Life Life
Infant Infant 4. Use the data in table 2.7 to draw a line graph of Russia’s
Fertility expect- Fertility expect-
Year Mortal- Year Mortal- fertility rate from 1960 to 2018. Account for the changes
rate ancy rate ancy
ity Rate ity Rate evident in the graph you have drawn.
(years) (years)
1960 2.52 n.a. 66.1 1990 1.89 21.9 68.9 5. Use the data in table 2.7 to draw a bar graph of Russia’s life
1961 2.45 n.a. 66.6 expectancy at birth from 1960 to 2018. Account for the
1991 1.73 21.9 68.5
changes evident in the graph you have drawn.
1962 2.36 n.a. 67.0 1992 1.55 22.0 66.9
1963 2.27 n.a. 67.3 6. In 2018, Russia’s crude birth rate was 12.9 per 1,000
1993 1.38 20.2 64.9
1964 2.18 n.a. 67.6
population, the death rate was 12.9 per 1,000 population,
1994 1.40 18.7 64.5 and the population growth rate was 0.0%. Use this
1965 2.13 n.a. 67.7
1995 1.34 18.6 65.2 information to calculate Russia’s (a) population
1966 2.10 n.a. 67.8 momentum, and (b) population doubling time.
1996 1.28 18.4 66.2
1967 2.04 n.a. 67.9
1997 1.23 18.1 67.0 7. Using the information in the table below, calculate the
1968 1.99 n.a. 67.9 dependency ratio for Cambodia and Russia:
1998 1.24 17.7 66.8
1969 1.97 n.a. 67.9
1999 1.17 17.2 66.0 Size in % % %
1970 1.99 35.4 68.1 Country and its
2000 1.21 16.5 65.3 millions under 15 - over
population
1971 2.03 34.1 68.4 2018 15 65 65
2001 1.25 15.7 65.5
1972 2.04 32.9 68.3 Cambodia 16.3 31 64 5
2002 1.30 14.7 65.1
1973 2.01 31.8 68.3
2003 1.31 13.7 65.0 Russia 144.5 18 67 15
1974 2.00 30.8 68.3
2004 1.33 12.8 65.4 8. Compare population change in Cambodia and Russia using
1975 1.98 29.9 67.7 the following headings: (a) population density, (b) natural
2005 1.29 11.8 65.5
1976 1.97 29.2 67.5 increase, (c) fertility rate, (d) life expectancy, (e) population
2006 1.30 11.0 66.6 structure, (f) dependency ratio, (g) future projections, and
1977 1.95 28.7 67.4
2007 1.41 10.2 67.5 (h) unique factors that affect population change in each
1978 1.92 28.2 67.4
country.
2008 1.49 9.6 67.8
1979 1.90 27.8 67.1
1980
1981
1.89
1.91
27.3
26.9
67.0
67.3
2009

2010
1.54

1.57
9.2

8.9
68.6

68.9
Megacity growth
1982 2.04 26.5 67.8 2011 1.58 8.6 69.7 In recent decades, the growth of megacities has
1983 2.11 26.0 67.7 2012 1.70 8.4 70.4 become a significant factor both in causing and
2013 1.70 8.1 70.6
reflecting population change. A megacity is
1984 2.06 25.6 67.2
defined as an urban area that has at least 10 million
1985 2.05 25.0 67.9 2014 1.75 7.7 70.7
people. Although that definition seems clear, it is
1986 2.15 24.3 69.4 2015 1.78 7.3 71.2
not always easy to know whether a certain urban
1987 2.22 23.5 69.4 2016 1.76 6.9 71.7 area is a megacity or not. Some lists insist that the
1988 2.12 22.8 69.5 2017 1.76 6.5 72.1 10 million people are all located within the city
1989 2.01 22.2 69.2 2018 1.75 6.1 72.2 proper, whereas other lists allow the 10 million to
Source: World Bank data. n.a. = no data available. be spread through the metropolitan area, which

80
 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
might include the commuting zone into the city
proper, or even rural land that has been included
within a city’s designated administrative boundary.

Megacities are a fairly recent feature of world

urbanisation. It was not until 1930 that the first
megacity emerged when New York’s population
reached 10 million people. Since that time, the
number of megacities has grown at an accelerating
rate. Table 2.8 shows a list of the world’s 31
megacities in 2020, together with the additional 10
urban areas that are projected to become megacities
by 2030. In 2020, the 31 megacities were located in
20 countries, with China having six megacities and
2.35 Located near the east coast of China, Shanghai is one of
India having three. the world’s largest megacities. It was established as a trading
port by several European countries in the mid-1800s beside the
Huangpu River. The area on the far riverbank in this view is still
dominated by European-style buildings from that semi-colonial
period. Nowadays, much of the city is dominated by high-rise
development to use the land as intensively as possible.
Growth in most megacities between 1990 and 2020
was somewhat slower than from 1970 to 1990,
although a few megacities such as Shanghai,
Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin, Chengdu
(all in China) plus Johannesburg (South Africa) and
Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) all experienced more
rapid growth. Forecasts to 2030 suggest that
megacity growth will slow down further, with one
megacity (Tokyo) expected to shrink in size slightly.
2.34 New York City was the world’s first megacity, reaching a
population size of 10 million people in 1930. To accommodate The standards of wealth and living conditions
large numbers of people without excessive urban sprawl, the
vary from megacity to megacity, largely as a
technique of vertical expansion by building skyscrapers was
developed. reflection of the national wealth of the country.

In 2020, the 31 megacities accommodated just over

525 million people, which was about 12.5% of all
urban dwellers in the world, or 6.2% of the world’s
population at the time. As table 2.8 shows, the rate
of growth of megacities has varied greatly from city
to city. During the period 1970 to 1990, three
megacities in developed countries (London, Paris
and Osaka) expanded at rates less than 1% per
annum (a doubling time of 70 years). In stark
contrast, megacities in developing countries (such
as Dhaka, Kinshasa, Lagos and Shenzhen) all grew
at rates exceeding 6% per annum during the same
period (a doubling time of 11.7 years). In the case
of Shenzhen, the average annual growth rate 2.36 In megacities that are growing rapidly because of rural-
between 1970 and 1990 was 18.44%, which was urban migration, many in-migrants from poor backgrounds who
equivalent to a doubling time of just 3.8 years. lack skills for employment are forced to live in shanty
settlements (slums), such as the hillside settlement seen here in
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.8
The world’s megacities, 1970 to 2030
Population (millions) Average annual change (%)
Rank in Rank in
Megacity Country
2030 1970 1990 2020 2030 1970-1990 1990-2020 2020-2030 2020

1 Tokyo Japan 23.298 32.530 37.393 37.190 1.67 0.63 -0.11 1

2 Delhi India 3.531 9.726 30.290 36.060 5.07 3.93 2.30 2
3 Shanghai China 6.036 7.823 27.058 30.751 1.30 4.49 1.82 3
4 Mumbai India 5.811 12.436 20.411 27.797 3.80 2.13 1.83 9
5 Beijing China 4.426 6.788 20.463 27.706 2.14 4.40 2.19 8
6 Dhaka Bangladesh 1.374 6.621 21.006 27.374 7.86 3.92 2.98 6
7 Karachi Pakistan 3.119 7.147 16.094 24.838 4.15 3.39 2.70 12
8 Cairo Egypt 5.585 9.892 20.901 24.502 2.86 2.59 1.78 7
9 Lagos Nigeria 1.414 4.764 14.368 24.239 6.08 4.06 4.08 17
10 Mexico City Mexico 8.831 15.642 21.782 23.865 2.86 1.20 0.85 5
11 São Paulo Brazil 7.620 14.776 22.043 23.444 3.31 1.43 0.74 21
12 Kinshasa Congo (DR) 1.070 3.683 14.342 19.996 6.18 4.60 3.67 18
13 Osaka Japan 15.272 18.389 19.165 19.976 0.93 0.38 -0.05 10
14 New York USA 16.191 16.086 18.804 19.885 -0.03 0.60 0.42 11
15 Kolkata India 6.926 10.890 14.850 19.092 2.26 1.27 1.61 16
16 Guangzhou China 1.542 3.072 13.302 17.574 3.45 5.62 2.47 22
17 Chongqing China 2.237 4.011 15.872 17.380 2.92 4.87 1.86 13
18 Buenos Aires Argentina 8.105 10.513 15.154 16.956 1.30 1.49 0.76 15
19 Manila Philippines 3.534 7.973 13.923 16.756 4.07 1.96 1.70 19
20 Istanbul Turkey 2.772 6.552 15.190 16.694 4.30 3.15 1.12 14
21 Bengaluru India 1.615 4.036 12.327 14.762 4.58 3.66 2.61 27
22 Tianjin China 3.318 4.558 13.589 14.655 1.59 3.62 1.87 20
23 Shenzhen China 0.022 0.875 12.357 14.537 18.44 11.52 1.07 26
24 Rio de Janeiro Brazil 6.791 9.697 13.458 14.174 1.78 1.16 0.62 21
25 Chennai India 3.057 5.338 10.971 13.921 2.79 2.45 2.31 30
26 Jakarta Indonesia 3.915 8.175 10.868 13.812 3.68 0.91 1.91 31
27 Los Angeles USA 8.378 10.883 12.447 13.257 1.31 0.51 0.46 25
28 Lahore Pakistan 1.964 3.970 12.642 13.033 3.52 3.17 2.67 23
29 Hyderabad India 1.748 4.193 9.870 12.774 4.37 3.03 2.42 *
30 Lima Peru 2.980 5.837 9.962 12.221 3.36 2.13 1.43 *
31 Moscow Russia 7.106 8.987 12.538 12.200 1.17 1.23 0.07 24
32 Bogotá Colombia 2.383 4.740 10.978 11.966 3.44 2.92 1.40 29
33 Paris France 8.208 9.330 11.017 11.803 0.64 0.60 0.58 28
34 Johannesburg South Africa 2.764 3.709 9.622 11.573 1.47 3.77 1.45 *
35 Bangkok Thailand 3.110 5.888 9.248 11.528 3.19 1.81 1.48 *
36 London UK 7.509 8.054 9.720 11.467 0.35 0.98 0.74 *
37 Dar es Salaam Tanzania 0.357 1.474 5.338 10.760 7.09 4.95 5.00 *
38 Ahmadabad India 1.695 3.255 7.674 10.527 3.26 3.26 2.45 *
39 Luanda Angola 0.459 1.390 5.845 10.429 5.54 5.57 4.24 *
40 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 1.970 3.038 7.196 10.200 2.17 3.54 2.26 *
41 Chengdu China 1.750 2.955 7.469 10.104 2.62 3.76 2.04 *
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, updated
with data from The 2018 Revision. * = not a megacity in 2014. Figures for 2030 are projections. Note that cities with over 20 million inhabitants are
sometimes referred to as metacities or hypercities.
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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.37 Central Cairo is a relatively affluent section of the 2.39 In Shanghai, urban growth has been accommodated by
megacity. This view shows the centre of Cairo, marked by the construction of several ‘new towns’ by the government on
Tahrir Square. the outskirts of the city, such as Songjiang (seen here).

2.38 In contrast with the scene shown in figure 2.37, poorer 2.40 In contrast with the scene shown in figure 2.39, poorer
residents live on the outskirts of Cairo, such as in the Mansheya residents in Shanghai live in older areas towards the city centre,
Nasir district, shown here, that is inhabited by the Zabaleen such as this alleyway community in the Beizhan Residential
people who are Cairo’s garbage collectors and recyclers. District near Suzhou Creek.

Thus, living standards in megacities such as Paris, The consequences of megacity

Tokyo and Moscow are much better than in the
rapidly growing megacities of the developing growth for individuals and
world such as Karachi, Lagos, Kolkata or Kinshasa. societies
Regardless of the overall wealth of the megacity,
In megacities cities where population growth has
however, there are large gaps in the affluence and
been rapid, the residents face significant challenges
living conditions experienced by wealthier
as a consequence of the growth. As we saw earlier,
residents and poorer residents.
megacities with rapid rates of population growth

2.41 Megacities in poorer countries that have experienced rapid population growth due to rural-urban migration have shanty
settlements, a form of self-help slums housing, to accommodate the in-migrants. This shanty settlement is in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
are located in developing countries, and this means Crime is another problem associated with slums
the authorities often lack the resources to address and homelessness as impoverished people feel
the problems encountered by the individual compelled to resort to illegal activities in order to
residents and the society as a whole. survive. Sometimes this is expressed through
burglaries, muggings, bashings and murders,
A common consequence of rapid megacity growth
especially in shanty areas, while other residents
is the development of slums, which are areas of
resort to illegal activities such as prostitution or
improvised, self-help housing made from
drug dealing to survive.
scrounged materials such as corrugated iron and
timber from packing cases. The United Nations
estimates that about 35% of urban dwellers live in
slum housing with poor (or no) sanitation. Most of
these people are rural-urban migrants who lack
both the money to rent housing in the city and the
skills to find employment. In some megacities, the
authorities tolerate shanty housing because it fills a
need, sometimes even connecting water and
electricity to improve the residents’ standard of
living. However, there are other cities where the
authorities seem embarrassed by the presence of
self-help housing and they periodically destroy the
homes, apparently failing to understand that a
housing shortage is never solved by a bulldozer. 2.43 Self-help housing in Soweto, a township in Johannesburg,
South Africa.
An associated problem is homelessness. There are
At the wider community level, a common
large numbers of homeless people who are forced
consequence of the growth of megacities is traffic
by poverty to live on the pavements, in public
congestion. This is especially so in developing
parks or as squatters in vacant buildings.
countries where government funds are insufficient
Homelessness is not restricted to megacities in
to provide transport infrastructure, but traffic
developing countries, but it also found extensively
congestion is also a significant problem in
in megacities in affluent countries such as the
megacities in developed countries such as New
United States, France and the United Kingdom.
York, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Paris and London.
However, charities seem to be more actively
engaged in addressing the needs of homeless Megacities are also known for their urban sprawl,
people in megacities in developed countries than is which means they spread horizontally across large
possible in developing countries, where financial distances to cover increasing areas of land. Urban
resources are much scarcer. sprawl has occurred as megacities have grown,

2.42 Homeless rural-urban migrants living on the pavement in 2.44 Urban sprawl on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia.
Mexico City, Mexico.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
both in developed and developing countries. In
cities where public transport is poorly developed,
CASE STUDY
urban sprawl increases people’s dependency on Shenzhen, China
cars, thus adding to traffic congestion, air pollution
For several decades, Shenzhen has been the fastest
and greenhouse gas emissions.
growing urban area in the world. Shenzhen is
Air and water pollution is an issue in most located in the south-east China on the eastern bank
megacities because the high concentration of people of the Pearl River, adjoining the border with Hong
in a relatively compact area makes the dispersal of Kong. The city has morphed from a small fishing
pollutants difficult. Furthermore, the authorities in village with a few thousand people in the 1970s to
the megacities of developing countries often see become a megacity that ranks in the top 30 world
economic growth as a higher priority than cities by population size, earning the nickname ‘the
environmental quality, arguing that pollution instant city’. The transformation from fishing
control is a luxury the economy cannot afford. The village to megacity occurred in the remarkably
environmental pollution that results from such short period of about 30 years.
thinking causes health problems for the residents
Today, Shenzhen has significant international links
who must endure the consequences of poor air
in the areas of finance, technology, foreign
quality and impure water.
investment and transport. It has China’s third
busiest port and fourth busiest airport. Its official
population is a little more than 10.7 million people,
but according to Shenzhen Secretary, Ma Xingrui,
the real figure at the end of 2015 was 20 million
people, of whom 3.67 million were registered as
permanent residents of Shenzhen, 10.77 million
were people with official long-term residency, and
the rest were undocumented workers who had
come to Shenzhen and were working without any
official papers. Presuming Ma Xingrui’s population
estimate is accurate, Shenzhen’s average
population density is about 10,000 people per
square kilometre, making Shenzhen one of the
world’s most densely populated cities.
2.45 Polluted water in a slum settlement in Manila, Philippines.
Table 2.9 shows Shenzhen’s official population
QUESTION BANK 2G growth since 1950, with projections to 2030.
1. What are megacities, and how do they differ from metacities Shenzhen’s settlement dates back over a thousand
and hypercities?

2. Describe the world distribution of the megacities today.

3. Using table 2.8, list the five fastest growing megacities in

1990-2020 in descending order of growth rate.

4. Using table 2.8, list the five slowest growing megacities in

1990-2020 in ascending order of growth rate.

5. Using the data in table 2.8, construct a graph that plots the
change in size of each of the 41 cities shown from 1970 to
1990 to 2020 to 2030.

6. What are the main conclusions you can draw from your
answers to the previous three questions?

7. Describe the main consequences of megacity growth for

2.46 High-rise commercial and residential buildings in the
individuals and societies, and use the photos to provide Luohu district of Shenzhen, beside the border with Hong Kong,
illustrative examples where possible. which is marked by the creek in the left background.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.9
Population growth in Shenzhen, China, 1950 to 2030
Average annual
growth rate for the
Year Population
previous five years
(%)
1950 3,000 0.0

1955 5,000 13.3

1960 8,000 12.0

1965 13,000 12.5

1970 22,000 13.8

1975 36,000 12.7

1980 58,000 12.2 2.47 The corner of Jianshe Road and Jiabin Road in the Luohu
district of Shenzhen in 1982. The small billboard shows the
1985 175,000 40.3
buildings that were about to be constructed on the site.
1990 875,000 80.0

1995 2,394,000 34.7

2000 6,550,000 34.7

2005 8,409,000 5.7

2010 10,223,000 4.3

2015 10,749,000 1.0

2020 12,357,000 1.0

2025 13,545,000 1.4

2030 14,537,000 1.0

Figures show official population statistics, but commonly accepted
estimates suggest the real numbers since the late 1980s have been
about double the official figures. Note that figures for 2020 and beyond
are projections. Source: World Population Review.

years, but it remained a small village for most of 2.48 The same corner of Jianshe Road and Jiabin Road (visible
in figure 2.47) is now occupied by a large bank building. In
that period. When the British took over the New
contrast with the view shown in figure 2.47, Shenzhen is now a
Territories of Hong Kong from the-then weak megacity with significant international links and influence.
Chinese government with a 99-year lease in 1898,
Shenzhen became the small border post on the
Chinese side. When a railway line was built to
connect the British colony of Hong Kong with the
Chinese city of Guangzhou (then named Canton),
Shenzhen became the main crossing point for traffic
between China and Hong Kong.

Shenzhen remained a small village until 1980 when

the Chinese Government established four Special
Economic Zones, or SEZs, one of which was
Shenzhen. The Government was eager to reform
China’s stagnant economy after the upheaval of the
Cultural Revolution, and the SEZs were an attempt
to encourage foreign companies to invest in China,
bringing their modern technology with them. The 2.49 Another view of the Luohu district of Shenzhen in 1982,
Government was also concerned that overseas shortly after construction had begun to transform the small
investment might bring some harmful effects, such fishing village into a megalopolis. This area is now occupied by
high rise office blocks and a shopping mall.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
as Western political and religious ideas, harmful today include electronics, computer software,
treatment of workers or excessive profiteering, so information technology hardware, video and audio
strict boundaries were established around the SEZs components, engineering equipment, printing,
to control the movement of people in and out. automobile parts, pharmaceuticals, medical
equipment, biotechnology and telecommunications
The SEZs were established with five main
(including mobile phone assembly), garments,
objectives:
heavy machinery, toy manufacture, clocks and
• to introduce foreign technology into China
watches, jewellery and leather goods.
• to develop links between Chinese companies and
foreign companies
• to attract foreign money as investment into China
• to establish experimental areas of capitalism
within China
• to employ many young people who were waiting
for jobs.

Shenzhen was one of the first four SEZs established

in China, the others being Zhuhai (on the border
with Macau) and the coastal ports of Shantou and
Xiamen. The Shenzhen SEZ began as an area of
about 300 square kilometres, but as the city grew
and its economy flourished, this was expanded to
almost 2,000 square kilometres, nearly double the
2.51 E-town in the Dayun district of Shenzhen is an
size of Hong Kong. agglomeration of electronics research workshops and
incubation centres to support Shenzhen’s computer, electronics
and information technology industries.

The establishment of hundreds of new factories led

to a huge demand for labour. The overwhelming
majority of Shenzhen’s population today are
migrants from other parts of China, or the children
of migrants. Because Shenzhen is a city of
migrants, it is much more diverse ethnically than
other Chinese cities. Regional dialects of Chinese
language that are commonplace in other parts of
China are almost never heard in Shenzhen, where
the language of communication is Beijing dialect
(also known as Putonghua, or Mandarin Chinese).
2.50 New buildings under construction in Shenzhen in 1986.
The low workers’ buildings shown in the foreground were The age-sex structure of Shenzhen reflects the
common at the time, but are now very scarce in Shenzhen. predominantly young workforce that has migrated
Soon after the establishment of the Shenzhen SEZ, to the city in search of work. Figure 2.52 shows the
the village became a huge construction site. New population pyramid of Shenzhen, showing the
multi-storey buildings were erected within months, marked dominance of people aged 15 to 34. The
a system of expressways was built and a new port dependency ratio in Shenzhen is unusually low as
was opened at Shekou. By 1985, about 5,100 most residents are of working age, as shown by
contracts had been signed between Chinese and Shenzhen’s age structure:
foreign partners from many countries, with most • 0 to 14 years: 8.5%
investment coming from Hong Kong, Taiwan, the • 15 to 64 years: 90.4%
United States, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, • 65 years and above: 1.1%
Denmark, Japan, Thailand and the Philippines. Unusually for rural-urban migrants in most parts
Significant manufacturing industries in Shenzhen of the world, Shenzhen has more females than

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
males, as fine electronics assembly (a major As a city that was designed by government
industry in Shenzhen) tends to be seen primarily as planners, Shenzhen has managed to avoid some of
female work. The percentage of female residents in the problems faced by other rapidly growing
Shenzhen is 55.7% and males 44.3%. megacities around the world. Shenzhen’s growth
has been managed under a succession of four
Most of Shenzhen’s growth has come from in-
master plans, each of which directed the course of
migration rather than natural increase. Shenzhen’s
expansion. The master plans, which were
birth rate is 14.5 births per 1,000 people, while the
introduced in 1982, 1986, 2000 and 2010, attempted
death rate is a very low 1.1 deaths per 1,000 people.
to gather similar types of factories while dispersing
Male Female
manufacturing and residential areas through the
100+
95 - 99
city. Residential areas were centred on several
90 - 94
85 - 89
urban nodes, separated by green belts of forest,
80 - 84
75 - 79
parkland and water reservoirs, while also being
70 - 74
65 - 69
linked by a comprehensive network of freeways
60 - 64
55 - 59
and rail lines (the Shenzhen metro).
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
Figure 2.53 shows the layout of Shenzhen as
35 - 39
30 - 34
defined by the current master plan for the city. The
25 - 29
20 - 24
master plan identifies three levels in a hierarchical
15 - 19
10 - 14
structure of planning — municipal level, district
5-9
0-4
level and cluster level — each with their own
900 600 300 0 0 300 600 900
Population (thousands) Age group Population (thousands)
growth centres. All construction must take place
within the boundaries of these areas, leaving green
2.52 Population pyramid for Shenzhen, 2019. belts to separate each development area.
Dongguan
Guangzhou Huizhou, Heyuan

Huizhou, Shanwei

Zhongshan Daya Bay

Jiangmen

Daya
Bay
Pearl River
Estuary
Qianhai Futian-Luohu
Centre Centre

Zhuhai
Mirs Bay
Macau Deep
Bay
Hong Kong

Municipal level urban centres North-south transport axis Urban clusters

District level urban centres East-west development belt 0 10
Cluster level urban centres Development zone boundaries Kilometres
2.53 Shenzhen’s master plan for urban development, 2010-2020. There are three levels in the hierarchy of urban centres, with
municipal level centres at the top, followed by district level centres and with cluster level urban centres at the bottom. They are
linked by north-south transport axes and east-west development belts, separated by green belts of parkland. According to the
master plan, no construction is permitted outside the development zone boundaries. Source: Shenzhen City People’s Government.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.54 The Shenzhen Metro has eight lines that run on elevated 2.56 Shennan East Road is one of Shenzhen’s major east-west
tracks and through subway tunnels, connecting the megacity’s thoroughfares, and shows the high rise buildings that are typical
residential areas on a network covering 288 kilometres with 166 of the Luohu Municipal Centre.
stations. This view shows the outer suburban district of Ailian.
At the top level of planning, there are two
municipal-level centres, Qianhai and Futian-
Luohu (shown in red in figure 2.53). Located near
the port, Qianhai is mainly used for activities that
support the port and its logistics industries. Future
planning will see this area become an international
business zone because of its location on developing
transport corridors that will link Hong Kong,
Guangzhou, Macau and Zhuhai. In the meantime,
Futian-Luohu serves as the main business and
commercial area because it includes the border
crossings into Hong Kong, and it thus contains the
largest concentration of high-rise buildings.
2.57 Much of Shenzhen’s wealth is generated through the
Because Shenzhen has such a high population Shenzhen Stock Exchange, one of three stock exchanges in
density, almost all areas have only high-rise China (the others being in Shanghai and Hong Kong). It is the
housing blocks to accommodate the population. eighth largest stock exchange in the world, and the fourth
largest in Asia.

2.55 The Luohu Centre is a large shopping mall on the border 2.58 Shenzhen is the wealthiest city in China, and this is
with Hong Kong. The green hills in the background are in Hong evident in the cars, fashions, services available and architecture
Kong, and the pink and white building in the right background is in the city’s commercial and office districts.
the border crossing point between Hong Kong and Shenzhen.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.59 Shenzhen is a megacity of high-rise buildings that have 2.61 Air pollution is one significant form of environmental
been built to accommodate the rapid inflow of in-migrants. pollution that afflicts Shenzhen. In view, a layer of smog hovers
These residential flats are in Dayun, an outer suburban district. over the Guiyuan Residential District.
Shenzhen, Xu Zongheng, identified four challenges
facing Shenzhen at the time: limited land, shortage
of energy and water, demographic pressures and
environmental contamination. At the time, the
official population of Shenzhen was 8.4 million
people, although the government was working on
the basis that there really about 14 million people in
Shenzhen.

Although workers in Shenzhen can earn high

salaries compared with other parts of China, and
indeed some lucky ones make individual fortunes,
working hours tend to be very long and conditions
are often basic. Working days of 16 hours are
2.60 As Shenzhen’s growth continues, many parts of the city common in factories, and there have been reports of
are essentially construction sites. This view shows roadworks suicides among some workers in electronics
with new high rise residential blocks in the outer suburban
district of Geshuicun.
factories who feel over-worked.

Undocumented workers cannot access the

Even residential areas on the periphery of the
education and health care that is available to
district and cluster level development zones
registered workers, and therefore have to pay large
comprise high-rise housing blocks. As a
sponsoring fees to enable their children to attend
consequence of the rapid construction of housing,
homelessness is almost known in Shenzhen. school. Nurses without official documentation
Although large amounts of temporary housing granting them the right to live and work in
were needed in the 1980s and 1990s, almost no Shenzhen earn only half the salaries of nurses who
areas that could be classified as shanty housing are live in Shenzhen legally. Although permanent
seen today despite the millions of undocumented residents and registered workers in Shenzhen can
workers living in Shenzhen. Shenzhen today is obtain travel permits to enter Hong Kong quite
easily, undocumented workers have to return to
China’s wealthiest city with the highest average
their home cities to obtain such permits. As a result
incomes in the country, which explains its magnetic
of these and other discriminatory practices, many
appeal to struggling farmers and urban workers in
undocumented migrant workers in Shenzhen feel
less affluent areas.
they are second-class citizens.
This is not to say that everything in Shenzhen is
perfect for its residents. In 2005, the Mayor of In an effort to improve the welfare of
undocumented migrant workers in Shenzhen, the

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.62 These housing blocks in Shuanglong date from the 1980s 2.64 Shops in areas where undocumented workers live offer
when Shenzhen first began to expand. They lack basic services basic goods and services such as food, clothing, household
and are occupied today by undocumented migrant workers. goods and electronics. This view shows Shuanglong.

2.63 Housing for poorer undocumented migrant workers in 2.65 In contrast with the area shown in figure 2.64, downtown
Fuhe, an outer district in north-east Shenzhen. areas of Shenzhen offer luxury goods that could be found in the
wealthiest areas of developed countries in Europe or North
city government introduced an employer-funded America.
health insurance program, and pressure has been Shenzhen is not as a stand-alone megacity, but
placed on factory owners to pay undocumented rather as part of a conurbation comprising several
migrant workers back-pay that is owing to them, a megacities and large cities in the Pearl River Delta.
sum equivalent to millions of US dollars. The It is expected that in the coming decades, several
government also introduced an investment fund to large cities will grow into each other to form a
help educate the children of undocumented conurbation (urban areas that grow and coalesce
migrants. Despite these measurers, undocumented into each other) that will become the world’s
migrant workers are still treated as outsiders by largest urban area, both in area and in population.
many people (especially employers) in Shenzhen,
and they are largely restricted to working in poorer The Pearl River Delta urban area is expected to
paying jobs such as building and construction. cover an area of about 40,000 square kilometres by
2030 as merging occurs of the cities of Shenzhen (12
Like all fast-growing megacities, it is expected that million people today), Guangzhou (13 million
the rate of population growth in Shenzhen will people), Hong Kong (7 million), Dongguan (8
slow down in the coming decades. No-one knows million), Foshan (7 million), Macau (0.6 million),
whether the predictions are accurate or not, just as Zhuhai (2 million), Zhongshan (3 million),
no-one seems certain of the real numbers of people Jiangmen (5 million), Huizhou (5 million) and
living in Shenzhen today. However, the future of

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2.66 Urban development in Shenzhen. The entire Pearl River Delta region of about 40,000 square kilometres is expected to look
like this by 2030 as a conurbation of 120 million people forms in the area.

Zhaoqing (4 million). The sum total of people in 5. What were the aims of the Chinese Government in
the Pearl River Delta urban area today is about 70 establishing the SEZs in 1980?
million, and by 2030 this is expected to grow into a
6. Describe the importance of in-migration as a factor in
single urban area of about 120 million people.
Shenzhen’s growth.
Shenzhen was established as an economic
7. Calculate the dependency ratio in Shenzhen.
experiment, and when its situation is compared
with the problems experienced in other megacities, 8. Describe and account for the differences in Shenzhen’s age-
it has been a successful experiment. Nonetheless, sex structure compared with the typical population
pyramids seen in developing and developed countries?
the city was built on the cheap labour offered by a
huge influx of in-migrants, both documented and 9. Calculate the dependency ratio in Shenzhen, assuming an
undocumented. As an affluent middle class official population size of 12 million people.
emerges in Shenzhen and contact with the outside 10. Calculate the population momentum factor in Shenzhen
world increases, people’s expectations are rising, assuming China’s national average life expectancy at birth
and past work practices and levels of of 76 years.
environmental pollution are increasingly seen as
11. With reference to figure 2.53, describe the master plan for
being unacceptable.
Shenzhen’s development, being sure to mention (a) the
hierarchical structure of urban centres, (b) the north-south
QUESTION BANK 2H
transport axes, (c) the east-west development belts, (d) the
1. Describe the location of Shenzhen, and explain why this green belts, and (e) the links with other large urban centres.
location has been an important factor in the city’s growth.
12. Why does most housing in Shenzhen consist of high-rise
2. Why are Shenzhen’s official population statistics thought to residential blocks?
under-estimate the real population size?
13. Which challenges that are typical of most megacities are
3. Use the data in table 2.9 to draw a line graph showing the found in Shenzhen?
growth of Shenzhen’s official population from 1950 to 2030.
14. Which problems found in most megacities are absent or of
4. Explain the shape of the graph you drew in your answer to minor importance in Shenzhen?
the previous question.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
country. Sometimes the people who are forced to
Forced migration and move are offered some compensation, but this does
internal displacement not always happen. Where people do receive
compensation, it seldom covers the cost of
Causes and consequences relocating and re-establishing life in a new part of
the country.
Voluntary migration, which was considered in the
previous chapter, occurs when people freely choose The third type of forced migration occurs as a
to move for reasons such as family reunions, to response to three types of disasters:
obtain a better job, or to improve their lifestyle. • natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods,
Forced migration occurs when people have no volcanic eruptions and hurricanes
effective choice but to relocate for reasons such as • long-term environmental changes such as
escaping from political conflict (including religious desertification, deforestation and land
or ethnic persecution), fleeing from the degradation
consequences of so-called development projects, or • human-induced disasters such as industrial
because of the effects of environmental disasters. accidents and leaks of radioactive or chemical
contaminants.
People who flee from political conflict usually do
so because the government, or the authorities that
are in charge of the area where people who feel
persecuted live, are unwilling or unable to offer
protection. The threat may arise for many reasons,
such as armed conflict, terrorist activity,
widespread violence, a break-down in law and
order, or persecution of certain groups on the basis
of factors such as ethnic group, political alliance,
religious affiliation, or activist campaigning.

People who flee from political conflict often feel

they are forced to escape persecution by leaving
their home country to settle in another country with
a different regime. For this reason, much of the 2.67 Following the explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power
forced migration as a result of political conflict is plant in Ukraine on 26th April 1986, 116,000 people within a
cross-border, international migration. Some radius of 30 kilometres were forcibly evacuated. The area is still
people apply for residence in another country by radioactive so the residents have never returned, becoming
internally displaced people. This view shows the largest of the
seeking asylum under international law, while
abandoned settlements in the evacuation zone, Pripyat, which
others who are either more desperate or feel more had 50,000 residents before the explosion. Today Pripyat is a
threatened attempt to enter other countries without ghost town where the contents of residences, schools and
any official documents to verify their identity. The public buildings remain as they were on the day of the
people in this latter group are often referred to as evacuation. Trees sprout through the concrete in the town
centre, where the moss is especially dangerous because it
undocumented refugees.
retains high concentrations of radiation.
When governments undertake large projects to Sometimes, the causes of forced migration may
promote economic development, such as overlap. For example, one of the consequences of
construction of large dams, large-scale urban the Honshu earthquake that occurred off the east
renewal, forestry operations, mining and coast of Japan on 11th March 2011 was a three to
establishment of national parks, significant twelve metre high tsunami that covered 560 square
numbers of people may be forced to relocate. kilometres of land. The tsunami penetrated the
Unlike those who fleeing from political conflict, walls of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power
people who are forced to move to make way for plant, destroying diesel backup systems that were
development projects are unlikely to move used to power the cooling system, leading to
internationally, but rather relocate within their own overheating of the nuclear core that in turn led to

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
three large explosions and widespread radioactive
leakage. Radiation levels within the power plant
were 1,000 times greater than normal levels , and
therefore 200,000 people from the surrounding area
endured a forced evacuation. The destruction of
infrastructure in northern Japan by the earthquake
and tsunami resulted in a total of 340,000 people
being displaced, requiring food, water, medicines,
shelter and fuel.

In general, migration involves a mix of push factors

and pull factors. Push factors repel a person from
their place of residence, whereas pull factors attract
a person to a new location. In cases of forced
2.69 This concrete-framed barbed wire fence has been built by
migration, push factors are overwhelmingly the the Chinese Government near Dandong to prevent refugees
dominant factor in the decision to migrate. The from North Korea entering China without permission.
desperation and urgency to relocate mean that pull
Forced migrants fit into six main groups: refugees,
factors are usually a minor consideration as few
asylum seekers, internally displaced persons,
options are normally available to a migrant who
development displacees, environmental displacees
has been forced to move.
and victims of human trafficking.
An exception to this generalisation was the forced
Refugees are people who ‘seek refuge’ from a
migration that occurred in Indonesia under the
hazard or danger, or from persecution. The term
transmigration program from 1949 to 2015. Under
usually refers to a person who has been forced to
the transmigration program, landless people from
cross an international boundary and move to a
densely populated islands such as Java, Bali and
different country. Article 1 in the 1951 United
Madura were forcibly moved and resettled in
Nations Convention Relating to the Status of
sparsely populated areas such as Papua,
Refugees defines refugees as people who reside
Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Sumatra. The idea was
outside their country of nationality, and who are
that sparsely settled areas required a larger
unable or unwilling to return because of a ‘well-
workforce to develop their natural resources, which
founded fear of persecution on account of race,
were seen as the ‘pull factor’ for migration. On the
religion, nationality, membership in a political
other hand, the transmigration program was
social group, or political opinion’.
widely criticised because local populations saw it as
‘Javanisation’ and ‘Islamisation’, a new form of Forced migrants who are recognised as legitimate
colonising their territory and culture. refugees by a receiving country are granted legal
rights, including residency and the right to work
for wages, as well as protection by the UNHCR
(United Nations High Commission for Refugees).
Migrants who are denied refugee status by a
receiving country may be held in detention or sent
back to their country of origin.

As political conflicts have escalated around the

world, the number of refugees has grown. In early
2020, the UNHCR stated that there were 70.8
million displaced people worldwide of whom 25.9
million were refugees. More than half the refugees
were children and youths aged under 18 years of
age. Over half the refugees came from just three
countries as a result of political conflict — Syria (6.7
2.68 A transmigration settlement for Javanese settlers near
Jayapura in the Indonesian province of Papua.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
million), Afghanistan (2.7 million) and South Sudan
(2.3 million). Countries hosting the largest
numbers of refugees were those located near the
source countries — Turkey (3.7 million), Pakistan
(1.4 million), Uganda (1.2 million)and Sudan (1.1
million), although some European countries also
accepted large numbers (1.1 million into Germany).

Asylum seekers are people who have crossed an

international border in the hope of being
recognised as a refugee, but their claim to be a
refugee was still being considered. In the same way
that refugee numbers have been increasing, the
numbers of asylum seekers have also increased.
2.71 A small refugee camp between Baalbek and Riyaq, a
According to the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre, Hezbollah-controlled zone in Lebanon near the Syrian border.
in early 2017 there were almost one million asylum
seekers worldwide, with the largest numbers being
in South Africa (232,000), Germany (135,000),
United States (84,000), Turkey (52,000), Kenya
(52,000), France (51,000), Greece (50,000), Malaysia
(43,000), Sweden (28,000), Uganda (24,000), Egypt
(23,000), United Kingdom (23,000), Austria (23,000)
and Canada (22,000).

2.72 Part of a camp on the Pacific island of Nauru that is used

by the Australian Government to hold asylum seekers while their
applications for refugee status are processed.
Advocates of this position claim that many asylum
seekers head for wealthy but distant countries
rather than seeking refuge in nearby countries that
have more familiar cultures. On the other hand, as
most asylum seekers come from countries with
2.70 On a per capita basis, Sweden has been one of the most political turmoil or a history human rights abuses
generous countries in accepting refugees and asylum seekers rather than the world’s most economically
from Syria. This Syrian family has been accepted and is now impoverished countries, refugee advocates reject
living in the southern Swedish city of Malmö. the assertions that most asylum seekers are not
The situation of asylum seekers has become genuine refugees.
controversial in parts of Western Europe, the
Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are people
United States, Australia and elsewhere in recent
who have been forcibly relocated within their own
years as politicians and others question the
country. They are sometimes referred to as ‘internal
legitimacy of some asylum seekers’ claims for
refugees’ or ‘refugees within their own country’.
refugee status. In the heat of the controversy, some
Although IDPs do not face the challenge of
asylum seekers have been accused of seeking
securing foreign residency like refugees, they lack
refugee status as a way of circumventing normal
the legal protection that is offered to refugees
immigration processes in an attempt to relocate
through international law and organisations such
simply to improve their economic situation.
as UNHCR.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.73 A camp used by internally displaced persons on the 2.74 Taipingxizhen, near Sandouping on the Yangtze River, is
outskirts of Sana’a, the capital city of Yemen. one of many towns built to rehouse 1.3 million people who were
forcibly relocated from towns and villages that were flooded by
According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring the rising waters of the dam’s lake.
Centre, in 2019 there were about 40 million IDPs
around the world because of conflict and violence,
the highest figure ever recorded. There were no
official figures relating to the number of IDPs as a
result of disasters.

Countries with significant numbers of IDPs due to

conflict and violence were Syria (at least 6.1
million), Colombia (5.8 million people), Congo (3.1
million) and Somalia (2.6 million). Countries with
significant numbers of IDPs due to disasters
included the Philippines (3.8 million in the
aftermath of typhoons), India (2.7 million people
due to drought), Nigeria (613,000), Somalia
(547,000), Afghanistan (435,000) and Ethiopia 2.75 An example of environmental displacement. Rising sea
(296,000). waters attributed to global warming destroyed the house that
used to stand in the foreground of this area in Bikenikora on
Development displacees are people who are forced Tawara Atoll, Kiribati, forcing the residents to relocate to a new
to relocate as a consequence of large-scale location on higher land. A sea wall that was also destroyed by
development projects. Development displacees are the rising waters can be seen in the right background.
usually a sub-group of IDPs as they are not usually problems. Like development displacees,
forced to relocate to another country, and they are environmental displacees are usually IDPs.
sometimes described using terms such as However, some environmental displacees do move
‘involuntarily displaced people’, ‘involuntarily to other countries, examples being Pacific islanders
resettled people’ or ‘oustees’. Examples of projects whose low-lying countries are threatened by sea
that have caused large numbers of development level rise due to climate change and pastoralists in
displaces include the Summer Olympic Games in the Sahel of Africa whose livelihoods are threatened
Rio de Janeiro in 2016, construction of the Three by desertification.
Gorges Dam in China and subsequent widespread
Human trafficking occurs when people are forcibly
flooding of the Yangtze River valley, and clearance
moved as a result of deception or coercion in the
of large areas of Ashgabat (Turkmenistan’s capital
false hope of financial gain. Usually considered a
city) for urban renewal.
form of slavery because of the extreme levels of
Environmental displacees are people who are exploitation imposed on the migrant and the loss of
forcibly relocated because of environmental freedom to escape from the situation, most human

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
trafficking occurs as a means of providing
unwilling participants to the prostitution industries
in countries away from the migrant’s country of
birth. Victims of human trafficking are prevented
from escaping, either by physical restraints or by
threats of violence and debts. Countries that are
significant sources of human trafficking include
Russia, China, Thailand, Nigeria, Ukraine, Belarus,
Albania and Romania, while significant destination
countries for human trafficking include Turkey,
Germany, Japan, the United States, Italy and
Greece.

QUESTION BANK 2I 2.76 Areas in Syria that are controlled by the government
1. What is meant by the term ‘forced migration’? always feature large portraits of the President, Bashar al-Assad
as a way of expressing support. This streetside poster is in the
2. Briefly describe the three main causes of forced migration, city of Hama.
and for each one, say whether it is more likely to lead to In the case of Syria, the President (Bashar al-Assad)
international migration or internal (domestic) migration. had wielded authoritarian control with army
3. Explain why push factors are usually more significant than support since he assumed the presidency in 2000,
pull factors for forced migrants. taking over from his father Hafez al-Assad who
had been President from 1971 to 2000. The Arab
4. Explain the differences between refugees and asylum
seekers.
Spring protests reached Syria’s capital city,
Damascus, in March 2011, and the calls for al-
5. What is meant by the term ‘internal displacement’? Assad’s resignation were suppressed violently.
6. Compare the relative numbers of refugees, asylum seekers Conflict soon escalated between several armed
and internally displaced persons in the world today.
forces and rebel groups, each fighting against the
7. What is the difference between ‘development displacees’ and others for control of the country:
‘environmental displacees’? • the Syrian Government with the support of the
8. Explain why human trafficking is a form of forced Army (and external support from Russia, Iran,
migration. and Hezbollah)
• the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also
9. In about 500 words, compare and contrast the causes and
known as Islamic State, ISIS, ISIL and Daesh), a
consequences of forced migration for refugees and
fundamentalist Shi’ite Islamic group
internally displaced persons.
• the Free Syrian Army (an Sunni Islamic group,
CASE STUDY with external support from Turkey)
• the Syrian Democratic Forces (a loose alliance of
Forced migration from Syria to Kurdish, Assyrian, Arab, Armenian, Turkmen
Turkey to flee political conflict and Circassian militias)
• the al-Nusra Front (also known as Jabhat Fateh
In December 2010 a succession of protests began to
al-Sham, al-Qaeda in Syria, and al-Qaeda in the
spread across Arab countries in North Africa and
Levant), a fundamentalist Salafist Sunni Islamic
the Middle East. Known as the Arab Spring, the
jihadist group (with external support from Qatar
protests began in Tunisia and extended quickly into
and Saudi Arabia)
Algeria, Iran, Bahrain, Egypt, and beyond. A major
slogan of the protesters was “the people want to Before the civil war began, Syria’s population was
bring down the regime”, and so the protests were 20.7 million people (2010 figure). Since the civil
met with fierce resistance by some governments, war began, it has affected every part of Syria,
notably in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Iraq. In these destroying widespread areas of farmland and
countries, the protests escalated and major civil urban infrastructure, including houses, markets,
wars began. mosques, roads, airfields and electricity and water

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
4

3.5

2.5
millions

1.5

0.5
2.79 A refugee camp for Syrian asylum seekers in Kilis, a small
0 town in Turkey located about 3 kilometres from the Syrian
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 border.
2.77 Number of registered Syrians in Turkey, 2011 to 2019. neighbor, Turkey. By early 2020, there were 3.6
Most Syrians in Turkey live in provinces in the south adjoining million Syrians registered to live in Turkey, making
the Syrian border, in Istanbul (Turkey’s largest city) and in Izmir up about 4.4% of Turkey’s total population. Almost
(a city on Turkey’s west coast near several Greek islands).
all of these Syrian settlers arrived after the start of
distribution systems. By early 2020, it was Syria’s civil war in 2011.
estimated that about 570,000 people had been
killed (80% of them civilians), 7.6 million people Understandably, this huge, rapid influx of destitute
had been internally displaced and more than five people has placed an enormous burden on
million others had left Syria as refugees or asylum Turkey’s economy as well as adding pressure to the
seekers. Syria’s population was thus thought to be country’s already complex ethnic diversity,
fewer than 16 million people by early 2020, with the increasing security threats and political
population size continuing to decline. polarisation (as shown by an attempted coup d’état
in July 2016). Although the Turkish Government
The destination for the largest number of asylum originally believed that the Syrian in-migration
seekers from Syria has been the country’s northern

Black Sea Russia

Turkey

Syria Iraq
Mediterranean Sea

2.78 Map of provinces in Turkey with the highest numbers of Syrian people. See table 2.10 for figures. Source: Crisis Group/DGMM

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
Table 2.10
Top ten provinces in Turkey with the highest numbers
of Syrians
Total
Number of
population
Province registered % of Syrians
(excluding
Syrians
Syrians)
1. Istanbul 14,657,434 413,406 2.7

2. Şanlıurfa 1,892,320 398,551 17.4

3. Hatay 1,533,507 377,731 19.8

4. Gaziantep 1,931,836 318,802 14.2

5. Adana 2,183,167 149,049 6.4

6. Mersin 1,745,221 135,921 7.2 2.80 This small tent city near the town of Osmaniye serves as a
camp for Syrian asylum seekers in Turkey. Surrounded by
7. Kilis 130,655 122,734 48.4
barbed wire, it contains schools, a hospital, shops and sports
8. Bursa 2,842,547 100,665 3.4 facilities. Osmaniye is located about 10 kilometres from Turkey’s
border with Syria.
9. Izmir 4,168,415 95,610 2.2
worry that the Turkish Government may use
10. Mardin 796,591 93,071 10.5
immigration from Syria as a device to transform
Figures relate to the situation on 10th November 2016 (latest data
available). Source: Turkish Directorate-General of Migration Turkey’s national identity, making Turkey more
Management (DGMM). Arab, more Sunni and more hegemonic (i.e.
would be small in scale and fairly brief, planning is powerful and dominant).
now proceeding on the assumption that the asylum
Turkey has refused to grant refugee status to
seeker settlers may become permanent, and thus
Syrian asylum seekers. Arrivals from Syria were
some planning for their education and integration
first classified as ‘guests’ in 2011, and the
into Turkish society may be required. This is
classification has now transitioned to people under
especially so as hostility to Syrian refugees
‘temporary protection’. The temporary protection
increases in some European countries and
scheme gives Syrians living in Turkey access to
elsewhere, making re-settlement there unlikely.
unlimited free health care, free education in public
The situation poses significant challenges for schools and grants permission to undertake
Syrians who have been forced to migrate to Turkey. employment. Nonetheless, this status left the
If they are to integrate into Turkish society, they asylum seekers with little incentive to try and
will have to learn the Turkish language, find integrate into Turkish society because there was no
meaningful jobs, search for and pay for housing clear prospect of long-term citizenship as there
and arrange education for the children, all in a would be if they were granted official status as
context of extreme vulnerability as asylum seekers. ‘refugees’.
Meanwhile, Turkish residents in host communities
complain about the impact of high-density asylum
seeker camps on the availability of jobs and
working conditions, the social benefits asylum
seekers receive and the perceived potential for
increased crime and terrorism. Although violence
against asylum seekers is rare in Turkey, it tends to
become amplified by alarmist media reports.

The overwhelming majority of Syrian asylum

seekers to Turkey are Sunni Muslim Arabs, which
raises ethnic and sectarian issues in the minds of
some Turkish people. Minority groups in Turkey,
such as the Kurds and some secularist groups,
2.81 Daily life in a camp for Syrian asylum seekers in Turkey.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
It is therefore understandable that 70% of Syrian Overall, Niger is sparsely populated. The northern
asylum seekers in Turkey have said they wish to two-thirds of the country lies within the Sahara
return to Syria when the conflict ends. The view Desert, and is almost uninhabited. The most
among most Syrian asylum seekers in Turkey is densely populated areas are in the south of the
that in the meantime, Turkey is a more desirable country where there is usually (just) enough water
place to live than Europe because it is closer to their for cattle raising. The Nigerien economy relies on
homeland, the cultures of Turkey and Syria are subsistence crops and livestock, with uranium from
more similar, the Turkish people seem more the country’s political unstable north making up of
tolerant of Syrians than many people in Europe, the the country’s largest export earners. About half the
Turkish Government has been welcoming, and government’s annual budget is funded by foreign
there is no Islamophobia of the kind that is found in aid donations.
parts of Europe.
Environmental challenges in Niger
CASE STUDY
Niger experiences several environmental problems
Forced migration in Niger to flee
that have an impact on migration in the country.
environmental problems Among the environmental issues are droughts,
Niger is located in the centre of the Sahel region of desertification, soil degradation, the shrinking of
West Africa, which is the semi-arid transition zone Lake Chad, pollution of the Niger River,
between the Sahara Desert to the north and the deforestation and sand intrusion. The financial
savanna grasslands to the south. With an area of pressures imposed upon many people in Niger by
1.27 million square kilometres and a rapidly these environmental problems forces large-scale
growing population of 22.4 million people, Niger is migration at a growing rate. In most cases, this
bordered by Mali and Burkina Faso to the west, migration takes the form of internally displaced
Libya and Algeria to the north, Chad in the east and people (within Niger), although it also occurs as
Nigeria and Benin to the south. Niger is one of the environmental refugees flee to neighbouring
world’s poorest countries with a Gross National countries such as Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Benin.
Income (GNI) per capita of US$380. It ranks last in Rapidly growing population in Niger has placed
the world (188th of 188 countries) on the Human strains on the fragile biophysical environment that
Development Index (HDI) with a score of 0.354. is naturally vulnerable to drought and consequent

2.82 Soil degradation and erosion near a small village south-west of Niamey, Niger.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
surrounding the lake. Problems have grown since
2015 as terrorist attacks and suicide bombings by
Boko Haram (also known as ISWAP — Islamic
State’s West Africa Province) have targeted
civilians. Attacks have prevented farmers accessing
their fields, damaged the system of traditional
markets and destroyed essential infrastructure such
as roads and irrigation channels.

As a result of the combination of the shrinkage of

the lake and terrorist activity in the Lake Chad
region, about 2.9 million people in the four
countries (2.3 million in Nigeria) have been forced
to flee from their homes and migrate to other parts
2.83 Cattle herding in Niger near the border with Burkina Faso. of their country. In the early years of Lake Chad’s
When farmers place too many cattle on their land, it is known as shrinkage, local residents moved inwards to follow
overgrazing. Common consequences of overgrazing include
soil compaction and wind-blown soil erosion.
the edge of the shrinking lake, thus crossing
national borders that were unmarked in the region
drying up of rivers. In recent decades, the land at that time. As a result of recent shrinkage of Lake
resources of Niger (grasslands and soils) have Chad, its waters are no longer accessible in Niger,
become severely degraded as a consequence of making irrigation impossible for local farmers and
human activities such as over-grazing of animals, aggravating food insecurity.
deforestation, agricultural mismanagement,
fuelwood consumption and urbanisation.

These activities are leading to a range of types of

land degradation including desertification, soil
compaction, erosion and salinisation, as well as
water pollution and wind erosion. Every year,
thousands of hectares of arable land are destroyed
and taken out of pastoral and agricultural use by
erosion. Consequently, Niger is one of the few
countries in the world where crop production is
expanding at a slower rate than population growth,
even though the area being farmed is expanding as
more marginal land is brought into production. It
has been estimated that land degradation in Niger 2.84 A fishing boat on the Niger River in Niamey.
is causing Niger’s Gross Domestic product (GDP)
to shrink by about 3% per annum.

The large inland water-body of Lake Chad used to

be shared by four countries as the water spread
across national borders into the four nations —
Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria — providing
fish and a valuable source of water for human,
livestock and wildlife communities. Droughts and
over-exploitation of the water in Lake Chad by
extracting excessive quantities for irrigation have
caused the lake to shrink in area from 22,276 square
kilometres in 1966 to 15,400 km2 in 1973, 2,276 km2
in 1982, 1,756 km2 in 1994 to about 1,350 km2 today. 2.85 The Niger River in Niamey. Note the siltation that is
occurring as sediments wash into the river from the river bank to
The shrinkage of Lake Chad led to severe food
the right of the photo.
insecurity for 3.5 million people in the areas
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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
The Niger River flows through the south-west of
Niger, providing a source of fish, water and
transport for Nigeriens. With a length of more than
4,000 kilometres and a drainage basin of 2.1 million
square kilometres, the Niger River is the largest
river in West Africa, linking Niger with Mali and
Guinea upstream, and with Nigeria downstream.
The Niger River is suffering from increasing
pollution, much of it from factory wastes that harm
fish reproduction and threaten the livelihoods of
those who make a living from catching fish. The
situation is aggravated by the widespread growth
of water hyacinth, a plant that spreads across the
water surface, harming the fish and depriving 2.87 This typical small village near Kouré has been built from
plants at the bottom of river of sunlight. Fish local raw materials, highlighting the dependence of Nigeriens
production is further affected as siltation occurs on natural vegetation.
and sand creeps into the river channel from the medical cures and 127 species are used for building
banks. and handicrafts. As deforestation occurs, soil
erosion is exacerbated, further reducing the land
available for agriculture and animal grazing.

In northern Niger, sand intrusion is a significant

and growing problem. Wind-blown sand from the
Sahara Desert covers roads and other
infrastructure, and covers farmlands, killing crops
and making the land unsuitable for cultivation.
Sand intrusion is aggravated by deforestation as
trees play an important part in calming winds and
blocking large-scale movements of sand.

Climate change increases the problem even more

as droughts become more frequent, placing more
2.86 Fuelwood has been gathered in the remote semi-arid area stress on vegetation that is already being threatened
shown in the background and brought to this roadside stop near by the effects of over-grazing and chopping for
Kouré for sale to passing drivers. fuelwood. Thus a vicious cycle of environmental
Another environmental threat in Niger is
deforestation. Niger’s woodlands are vulnerable
to disturbance because of the country’s dry
environment, and gathering wood for fuelwood
(which is the country’s major source of energy)
damages the forests, especially as the growing
population makes increasing demands on the
limited supplies of timber. The use of fire to clear
land for agriculture also leads to deforestation,
causing significant problems for people given the
heavy reliance of the population on naturally
growing trees and grasses. The United Nations
reports that 210 naturally occurring plant species in
Niger are used for human nutrition (especially
during famines), 235 species are eaten by domestic 2.88 Wind-blown sand covers the international highway
livestock, 270 species are used for traditional between Dosso to Gaya that connects Niger with Benin.

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places
impact occurs as farmers whose livelihoods are
threatened look for new ways of preserving their
incomes such as chopping more trees for fuelwood
or over-grazing their cattle, thus further exposing
the soil to increased aridity, compaction, erosion
and sand intrusion.

Environmental
degradation

Income reduction,
2.90 This Tuareg encampment in the Sahara Desert north of
poverty and Timbuktu in Mali, accommodates the descendants of
unemployment environmental refugees who migrated from Niger in the 1970s.

unemployment that they were forced to migrate.

This situation continues today as the environmental
Migration problems worsen, causing crop yields to decline
and animals to die due to droughts and water
shortages. Many people in the fishing industry also
migrate due to environmental reasons as droughts,
2.89 The vicious cycle of environmentally induced migration in
Niger. shrinkage of Lake Chad and siltation of the Niger
River cause fishing yields to decline to levels that
Forced migration as a response to are no longer viable.
Niger’s environmental challenges Although many of the environmental displacees
Migration has emerged as a widespread response remain within Niger, usually becoming rural-urban
by many Nigeriens to the environmental problems migrants to the country’s capital city (Niamey),
they are encountering to an increasing degree. some migrate internationally to nearby countries
Temporary and seasonal migration has been a such as Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria and Côte
long-standing response by Nigeriens to drought as d’Ivoire. The pressures of environmental
cattle owners have moved their herds to follow the displacees in Niamey have been amplified by the
availability of water. For example, the Fulani ethnic arrival of another group — refugees who have fled
group, who are traditional cattle herders, have political turmoil and conflict in neighbouring Libya
moved their cattle from the dry north to the fertile by migrating to Niger.
lands of southern Niger seasonally for centuries to Most of the people who migrate in Niger are young
feed their cattle. This has become more difficult in men who move in search of new ways to earn a
recent decades as population growth in southern living to send money home (remittances) to support
Niger has led to most of the land becoming their families. Women, children and elderly people
occupied by another ethnic group, the Djerma, who usually remain behind, leading to a distorted
use the land for crop cultivation. population structure in their towns and villages.
In the early 1970s, when more severe droughts that Migration is thus one-way, with few of the young
are thought to have been caused by climate change men returning home, at least for many years.
first began to affect Niger, thousands of young men The regions that have been deserted by the young
of the Tuareg ethnic group migrated to less affected men become more environmentally vulnerable,
areas in Libya, Algeria and northern Mali. especially during the dry seasons, because there are
As more intense environmental problems emerged so few men available to perform the heavy work
in Niger from the 1990s onwards, many farmers that is often needed to restore environmental
faced such severe problems of poverty and damage or maintain infrastructure such as water

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 Chapter 2 - Changing populations and places

2.91 These young men who have been environmentally 2.92 Women from families that have resisted the pressure to
displaced from northern Niger have migrated to Niamey and are migrate fill water bottles from a communal well in the relatively
attempting to earn income by selling cheap goods on the well-watered, fertile zone between Niamey and Kouré in
roadside. southern Niger.

wells. Consequently, the women have to re-plant water) and controlling over-exploitation of the
trees, fix sand dunes, dig depressions to gather land.
rainwater and move heavy rocks to prevent
siltation of streams. Aside from the heavy nature of • Efforts should be made to attract local and
the work required, the women are also involved foreign investment to create jobs that are
with taking care of the young and the elderly, so environmentally friendly.
their overall workload is very intense. The • Introduce education campaigns to inform
situation for those left behind in rural areas farmers, cattle herders and fishers about more
becomes even more difficult if the male migrants do sustainable methods for their work.
not send money home, as this forces the women to
• Traditional or indigenous knowledge should be
seek employment to obtain food, but employment
promoted as a way to help people adapt and
opportunities are extremely scarce.
respond to environmental degradation.
Some Nigeriens resist the push to migrate because
of environmental pressures. Most of these farmers • People who remain behind in towns and villages
are located in the more fertile south-western areas when the men leave should receive humanitarian
of Niger. Even in these areas, however, life is aid and financial support to restore their
becoming more difficult because of environmental degraded environment.
issues, and some migration from these areas is QUESTION BANK 2J
starting to occur, usually in the form of rural-urban
migration into Niamey. 1. Write about 500 words to compare the push factors that
cause forced migration in Syria and Niger.
Solutions to the ongoing environmental problems
2. Describe the consequences of forced migration from Syria to
in Niger and the consequences of forced migration
Turkey (a) for the migrants, and (b) for Turkey.
are not easy to find. This is especially the case
given the poverty of the country as a whole, and 3. Describe the consequences of forced migration due to
thus forced migration is likely to be an ongoing environmental forces in Niger (a) for the migrants, (b) for
issue for some time. Among the policy solutions the communities the migrants have left behind, and (c) for
places such as Niamey that are destinations for migrants.
that have been suggested to relieve the suffering of
the people affected are the following: 4. Suggest solutions to ease the consequences of forced
migration (a) for Syrian migration to Turkey, and (b) for
• Development policies in Niger should aim to
environmentally forced migration in Niger.
reduce further environmental degradation by
protecting natural resources (tree wood and

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 Chapter
3 Challenges and
opportunities

3.1 Ageing, or ‘greying’ of the population is a trend in many middle and high-income countries, such as Moldova shown here.

Figure 3.2 gives a more detailed insight into

Population trends changes in family size over the past half century,
both for the world as a whole and for several
Family size macro-regions and economic groupings. The
In the previous chapter, differences in fertility rates factors that influence family size vary in different
over time in different parts of the world were parts of the world, for example:
examined. Fertility rates are a very effective mirror • People living in more economically developed
of family size because fertility rates are defined as societies where infant mortality rates are low
the average number of children that would be born have fewer children than families in poorer
per woman if all women lived to the end of their countries where infant mortality rates are higher.
childbearing years. Therefore, the maps in figures
2.7 and 2.8 give a clear picture of changing family • Some societies in East Asia, South Asia, parts of
sizes over time and the differences in family size in Africa and elsewhere have a preference for male
different parts of the world. children, usually because the family name will be
carried on with a male heir. Therefore, some

105
 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
7

5
B ir t hs p er wo ma n

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Arab countries Central Europe & Baltics East Asia and Pacific Euro Zone
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa High Income Countries Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries
3.2 Changing family size for the world and selected regions, 1960 to 2017, using fertility rate (births per woman) as the indicator.

• Countries where contraceptives are readily

available tend to have smaller families with fewer
children.

QUESTION BANK 3A
1. Quoting specific figures where possible, describe the trend of
family sizes as indicated by fertility rates for the world in
general from 1960 to 2017.

2. Compare the different trends in average family sizes from

1960 to 2017 in high-income countries, medium-income
countries and low-income countries. Suggest an
explanation for the differences you have noted.

3. Select three contrasting regions that show differing trends

3.3 Average family sizes in Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest in average family sizes from 1960 to 2017. Describe the
in the world. This mother in Mopti, Mali, already has four
different trends, quoting statistics where possible, and
children and is pregnant with her fifth. The average number of
suggest reasons for the differences.
children in Malian families is six.
families continue to have children, stopping only
when a baby boy has been born. Sex ratios
• The desire by many couples to have a family that Intuitively, many people think that the number of
includes both sons and daughters may result in males and females in the world should be about the
larger families as couples with two or more same. The reality is that males outnumber females
children of the same sex continue to have in some parts of the world, while females
children in the hope of having a family with outnumber males in others. The way these
children of both sexes. situations are analysed is by using the sex ratio,
which measures the number of males to every 100

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
females in a country or society. Therefore, a Figure 3.4 shows the global distribution of sex
national sex ratio of 102 would indicate that for ratios. The lowest sex ratios (indicating a
every 100 females in a country, there are 102 males. disproportionately high proportion of females) are
found in Russia and several other former Soviet
There are two variations in the way sex ratios are
republics such as Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia,
used. One version is to measure the sex ratio of
Lithuania and Armenia, together with several
births in a country, comparing the relative
isolated locations such as Portugal, Hong Kong and
percentages of male and female babies, while the
El Salvador. The world’s lowest sex ratio is found
other version is to measure the sex ratio of the
in Nepal (83.37), followed by Latvia (85.15), Hong
population as a whole. If there is no qualification
Kong (85.42) and Lithuania (85.90).
to the term ‘sex ratio’ (such as ‘sex ratio at birth’),
then the sex ratio refers to the whole population. Russia and other former Soviet republics have had
very low sex ratios since World War II because so
The average sex ratio at birth worldwide is 107,
many soldiers were killed during the conflict. In
although the sex ratio at birth is lower in Africa,
1950, Russia’s sex ratio was just 76.6. Russia’s sex
where it is 104. The higher proportion of male
ratio rose to 88.4 in 1995 before starting to decline
babies results from a combination of biological
once again. The post-1995 decline in Russia’s sex
reasons and cultural reasons, such as the
ratio occurred because Russia’s low birth rate
disproportionately high rate of aborting female
resulted in an ageing population, and old people
fetuses in some societies.
are more likely to be female than men because
Males have a higher death rate than girls because women have longer average life expectancies.
they engage in more risky behaviours during their
At the other end of the spectrum, the highest sex
youth, their rates of smoking and alcohol
ratios (indicating a disproportionately high
consumption are higher than females, they engage
proportion of males) are found in several Middle
in more hazardous occupations, they are more
Eastern and Gulf countries such as Qatar (sex ratio
likely to be killed in combat as soldiers during war
of 308.24), United Arab Emirates (226.41), Oman
and conflicts, and the rates of male depression and
(194.00), Bahrain (175.12), Kuwait (152.86) and
suicide are higher than female rates. Therefore, the
Saudi Arabia (135.59). These countries have high
sex ratio for a general population is usually lower
sex ratios because they have large numbers of male
than the sex ratio at birth. The world’s average sex
workers who have migrated, usually from
ratio in 2018 was 101.67, an increase from 99.99 in
countries in South Asia such as India, Bangladesh,
1960, which is a result of increasing average life
Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
expectancies for males.

Males per
100 females
more males

110+

105 - 110

102.5 - 105

100 - 102.5

97.5 - 100
more females

95 - 97.5

90 - 95

80 - 90

3.4 Sex ratios, expressed as the number of males per 100 females, 2018.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
In the case of China, the high sex ratio arises from a
traditional preference to have sons to ensure that
the family name will continue. To increase the
probability of having a boy baby, many Chinese
families undertake prenatal sex determination and
if the foetus is a girl, arrange to have a sex-selective
abortion performed. When female babies are born,
they are frequently neglected or abandoned by their
parents, thus increasing the female mortality rate.
There have been reports of female infanticide in
some poor, rural areas of China, further distorting
the sex ratio in favour of males. The pressures to
favour sons were especially strong in China during
3.5 Russia and other post-Soviet republics have the lowest sex the period when the ‘One Child Policy’ was being
ratios in the world, partly as a consequence of the loss of male implemented forcibly, as parents who were
lives during World War II. The continuing importance of World restricted to having just one child were more
War II in Russian psyche is reflected in the presence of well-
insistent that the one child must be a boy.
tended war memorials, even in small, remote towns such Ust-
Nera in Russia’s Far East, shown here.

3.7 This girls’ school in Cochin in India’s Kerala state illustrates

why sex ratios in Kerala are much lower than elsewhere in India.
Girls’ education is a priority in Kerala, and so girls there are not
3.6 The highest sex ratios in the world are found in Gulf subject to the mistreatment they receive elsewhere in India.
countries where large numbers of men have come in search of
work. In the United Arab Emirates (seen here), more than eight
million foreign workers make up almost 90% of the population.

India and China, the two countries with the largest

populations in the world, also have unusually high
sex ratios — 108.23 for India and 105.43 for China.
In the case of India, the high sex ratio arises from
the violent treatment of many young girls, and
thus the sex ratio varies widely in India according
to the treatment of females. In Kerala, probably
India’s most egalitarian state in terms of women’s
rights and girls’ education, the sex ratio is the
lowest in India, being 94.51. This compares with
more traditional, conservative states such as 3.8 This class of 53 students in a primary school in Cengong,
Chandigarh, Haryana and Punjab where the sex Guizhou province, China, has 23 girls and 30 boys. Thus the
ratios are 128.70, 116.14 and 114.16 respectively. sex ratio of this class is 130.43, reflecting an even higher
proportion of boys than China’s overall population. Cengong is
located in a traditional, poor, rural area of China.

108
 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
108

106

104
Ma le s p er 1 0 0 f ema l e s

102

100

98

96

94

92
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Arab countries Central Europe & Baltics East Asia and Pacific Euro Zone
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa High Income Countries Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries
3.9 Sex ratios for the world and selected regions, 1960 to 2018. Source: Drawn from World Bank data.

As figure 3.9 shows, there is a general global trend Ageing/greying

towards higher sex ratios, which means an
increasing proportion of males in the world. This As average life expectancies around the world
trend is not uniform in all parts of the world, increase, the proportion of elderly people in the
however, and the sex ratio is declining in Latin population increases. A population with a growing
America, the Caribbean, Central Europe and the proportion of elderly people is said to be ageing or
Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The greying. To enable international comparisons to be
sex ratio is accelerating fastest in the Middle East made, it is generally agreed that elderly people are
and North Africa (because of large-scale defined as being 65 years of age and older.
immigration of male workers). The ageing of the world’s population is one of the
most significant demographic changes we are
QUESTION BANK 3B
experiencing today. In 1960, there were about 150
1. What is the difference between ‘sex ratio at birth’ and ‘sex million in the world aged 65 and over, representing
ratio of the population’? 5% of the world’s population at the time. Today,
2. With reference to figure 3.4, describe the broad world this figure has increased to albout 675 million
pattern of sex ratios. people, representing almost 9% of the world’s
population. In the world’s high-income countries,
3. Identify the countries with higher than average sex ratios,
the percentage of people aged 65 and over is now
and explain why their sex ratios are so high.
18% (up from 9% in 1960). On the other hand, the
4. Identify the countries with lower than average sex ratios, proportion of elderly people in low-income
and explain why their sex ratios are so low. countries has remained at a steady 3% since 1960,
5. With reference to figure 3.9, describe the changes in world although the total number of elderly people in low-
average sex ratios from 1960 to 2018, and identify regional income countries has grown in proportion with the
exceptions to the general trend. expanding overall population. The regional trends
of ageing populations in various regions of the
world are shown in figure 3.11.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities

% of
population
aged 65
and over
25+

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5-9

1-4

3.10 Percentage of the population aged 65 years and older, 2018.

Figure 3.10 shows the present world distribution of is explained by inadequacies in medical care and
ageing populations. The lowest proportions of diet that result in shorter life expectancies than
elderly people are found in concentrations of low- elsewhere in the world. The small proportion of
income countries in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, elderly people in many countries on the Arabian
south-west Asia, Mongolia, Indo-China and some Peninsula can be explained by the large influx of
small nations in the south-west Pacific such as young migrant workers that have come to comprise
Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. as much as 80% to 90% of the population in some
The small proportion of elderly people in Africa, countries of the region.
south-west Asia and parts of the south-west Pacific
21

18
% of po pul ation ag e d 6 5 an d ove r

15

12

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Arab countries Central Europe & Baltics East Asia and Pacific Euro Zone
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa High Income Countries Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries
3.11 The percentage of the population aged 65 years and over for the world and selected regions, 1960 to 2018.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
people arises from a combination of declining birth
rates and longer life spans as a result of high
standards of health and medical care.

Other countries where more than 20% of the

population is aged 65 and over include Italy (23%),
Portugal (22%), Finland (22%), Greece (22%),
Germany (21%), Bulgaria (21%) and Sweden (20%).
Like Japan, these countries all experience a
combination of low birth rates and increasing life
expectancies due to high standards of health and
medical care.

An ageing population can pose significant

3.12 The Sahel countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have some of challenges to the economy and social structures of
the world’s lowest proportions of elderly people. In Mali, only countries where it is occurring:
3% of the population is aged 65 and above. That statistic makes
this man a rarity — perhaps the oldest person in the country, he • The need increases for services directed towards
is said to be about 100 years old. He is the ‘hogon’, or chief, of caring for the elderly such as aged care homes,
Sanga village. He lives alone and never washes; it is believed a medical care and pensions. As governments
snake comes to him each evening to lick him clean. provide many of these services, this places
The countries with the lowest proportions of pressure on government expenditure.
elderly people are the United Arab Emirates and
Qatar, with 1% of the population aged 65 and over,
followed by several countries with 2% elderly
populations —Angola, Bahrain, Burkina Faso,
Burundi, Chad, Equatoria Guinea, Kenya, Oman,
Uganda and Zambia.

At the other extreme, the country with the highest

proportion of elderly people is Japan (assuming we
ignore the special case Vatican where a very high
proportion of the population comprises elderly
migrants from elsewhere). The proportion of
people aged 65 and over in Japan is 27.6%, a
substantial increase from 5.7% in 1960, 9.0% in 1980
and 17.2% in 2000. The high proportion of elderly 3.14 This art centre for senior citizens in Koror, Palau, was
established by the government to support elderly people.

3.13 Japan has the highest proportion of elderly people of any 3.15 A home for the elderly that is operated by a Buddhist
country in the world. monastery in Mingun, Myanmar.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
this may save governments some expenditure, it
can also lead to deteriorating quality of these
services and infrastructure.

• A so-called ‘grey economy’ may emerge

comprising three elements:
‣ elderly people who have retired from full-time
paid employment take on voluntary work or
part-time work, often in the retail industry
‣ elderly people help to look after grandchildren,
enabling young parents to return to their full
employment
‣ industries such as group travel and recreational
facilities expand or develop to serve the
demands of energetic retirees

3.17 Elderly tourists visit a high school in Pyongyang, North

Korea, as part of a group tour for retirees.
3.16 Ageing these days does not usually require withdrawal • Increased savings to cover pensions may reduce
from economic life, either in low income or high income
the funds available for capital investment by
countries. This elderly former farmer now sells clothing she has
made to passers-by in the local market in Santiago Atitlán, banks and financial institutions, reducing
Guatemala. investment in productive projects, thus lowering
• There is an increase in the dependency ratio. As the rate of economic growth.
the size of the active workforce declines relative
QUESTION BANK 3C
to the growing ageing population, most of whom
have retired, a growing quantity of taxation 1. What is the usual internationally agreed definition of an
revenue is demanded from the shrinking elderly person?
workforce. This places increasing financial 2. Using figure 3.11, describe the world average trend of
pressures on both the active workforce (as higher ageing between 1960 and 2018, and then contrast this
taxes) and governments that must find sufficient world average trend with trends during the same period for
revenue to cover expenditure. (a) high income countries, (b) medium income countries,
and (c) low income countries,
• If the growing proportion of elderly people is
matched by a declining proportion of young 3. Using figure 3.11, select three contrasting regions that show
people (as happens in Japan and Europe), the differing trends in ageing from 1960 to 2018. Describe the
different trends, quoting statistics where possible, and
demand for youth-oriented services such as
suggest reasons for the differences.
schools, sports fields and fast-food restaurants,
and infrastructure for young families such as 4. With reference to figure 3.10, describe the broad world
housing and maternity hospitals declines. While pattern of ageing.

112
 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
5. Identify three countries with high proportions of elderly usually in countries where the market economy is
people, and explain why their proportions of elderly people poorly developed or where administrative controls
are so high. are strong (or even authoritarian), implement
6. Identify three countries with unusually low proportions of policies through decree and regulation.
elderly people, and explain why their proportions of elderly A survey by the United Nations showed that 43% of
people are so low.
governments around the world have policies to
7. Is an elderly population a problem or a benefit for a society? lower the rate of population growth by reducing
Write about 300 words to explain your answer. fertility rates, while 27% have policies to raise it.
The remaining 30% of governments either have
Population policies policies to maintain current fertility rates, or no
population policies to interfere with fertility rates.
In some countries, population characteristics cause
concern for government officials, politicians, The distribution of these population policies is
demographers, and the general public. Some shown in figure 3.18. In general, countries with
governments worry about rapid population policies to reduce population growth by lowering
growth, while others express alarm that the fertility rates were developing countries that had
population is not growing quickly enough, or in
some cases, that the population is actually
declining. Other governments are concerned about
skewed sex ratios, high dependency ratios, rapid
population momentum, rates of migration that are
too high or too low, and the forced movement of
people as refugees or through human trafficking.

The response of some governments is to introduce

population policies to address the concerns that
have been identified. Population policies refer to
any measures taken by a government, either
explicitly or implicitly, to control or influence
population size, growth, structure or distribution.
Some governments use the market mechanism to 3.19 A crowded market in central Kolkata, India, is indicative of
countries with high population densities and rapidly growing
implement their policies, through financial
populations. Countries such as India are most likely to have anti-
incentives, taxation or fines. Other governments, natalist population policies to reduce fertility.

Anti-natalist policies to
reduce fertility rates
Pro-natalist policies to
increase fertility rates
No policies relating to
fertility, or policies to
maintain fertility
3.18 World distribution of population policies relating to fertility rates. Source: derived from data in United Nations World Population Policies.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
above-average fertility rates and rapidly growing of ageing populations. On the other hand, the
populations. Conversely, as we would expect, most concern is fairly stable in developing regions,
countries with policies to increase population where 42% of governments expressed concern
growth by raising fertility rates were high-income about ageing populations in 2005.
countries that had below-average fertility rates and
Measures that governments take to address issues
were concerned about the slow growth (or decline)
of an ageing population include increasing the
of their populations. Some countries, such as Iran
statutory retirement age and reforming the pension
and Saudi Arabia, have policies to promote fertility
system, either reducing benefits to save money or
as an expression of the government-endorsed
increasing benefits to make sure elderly people
religious positions in those countries.
receive the care they require.

Japan’s population policy

With 27.6% of its population aged 65 and older,
Japan has the highest percentage of ageing people
of any country in the world. Furthermore, the
proportion of elderly people is accelerating faster
in Japan than anywhere else. In 1960, just 5.7% of
Japan’s population were aged 65 and over, and
forecasts predict that the elderly will comprise 40%
of Japan’s population by 2060. At that time, it is
estimated that 27% of Japan’s population will be
aged 75 or more. The growth of Japan’s elderly
population since 1960 is shown in figure 3.22,
3.20 Although Iran’s annual population growth rate is 1.4%, together with the trends for Japan’s other age
which is higher than the world average, its fertility rate is 2.1
births per woman, which is less than the world average of 2.4.
groups.
For this reason, and to support the place of Shi’ite Islam as the One of the reasons that Japan’s population has aged
country’s official religion, Iran reversed its earlier policy to curb
population growth in 2010, replacing it with a policy to
more than any other country is that in 1948 a law
encourage families to have more children. In announcing the was passed giving easy access to induced abortions
changed policy, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said for Japanese women. Almost immediately after this
that previous family planning was ungodly and a Western import. law was passed, Japan entered a prolonged period
Iran’s revised population policy now pays families for each child of low fertility that continues today. Japan’s
and deposits money into that child’s bank account regularly until
they reach their 18th birthday. In this view, Iranian families enjoy
fertility rate today is only 1.4 births per woman,
the evening breeze in Naqsh Jahan Square, Esfahan. well below replacement level.

Policies relating to ageing

societies
According to the United Nations survey of
population policies around the world, 55% of
governments around the world have identified
ageing in their countries as a major concern.
Governments in more economically developed
parts of the world were more likely to express
concern about ageing populations, with 92% of
such governments expressing this concern
compared with 42% of governments in less
economically developed countries. This concern is
growing in high-income countries; in an earlier
3.21 As the average age of Japan’s population increases,
survey in 2005, 76% of governments in developed
children are becoming quite a rare sight, especially in in large
regions expressed concerns about the consequences cities such as Tokyo (seen here).

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
70 • Government funding is being devoted to
research into new medical technologies such as
60 regenerative medicine and cell therapy in the
hope of saving money on future health costs
50 while also creating a new industry that may earn
export income for Japan.
% o f p o p u l a t i on

40 • The Japanese Government has a generous

national pension plan with long-term care
30 insurance (LTCI), providing financial security to
elderly people by providing up to US$3,000 per
20 month in welfare services. Workers pay into the
system from the age of 40, and benefits can be
10
drawn from 65, or earlier in the case of illness.

• The Government subsidises the cost of care for

0 the elderly in nursing care homes and other
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
welfare facilities to enable families to afford such
65+ years 15-64 years 0-14 years
care while freeing them to participate in the
3.22 The percentage of the population in Japan within each
workforce (and thus earn money from which
broad age band, 1960 to 2018.
taxes to the Government can be paid).
Japan’s continuing low fertility rate is attributed to
declining interest in marriage and child-bearing • These measures are supported by policies
among Japanese people. A study in 2016 found that designed to encourage families to have children,
42% of men and 44% of women aged between 18 such as expanding opportunities for childcare,
and 34 were virgins, and most were in no hurry to paying financial benefits to parents with children,
get married or enter a relationship. Many young and initiating a government-sponsored dating
people in Japan express a preference for service.
pornography over relationships with other people Not all the measures being undertaken in Japan to
because relationships are seen as being too address the needs of an ageing population are
expensive and time consuming, thus interfering government initiatives. Japanese society has a long
with work. It is now common practice for Japanese tradition of families caring for their elderly
workers to continue living with their parents well members. However, the sheer numbers of elderly
into their working lives, earning the commonly people in Japan are forcing changes to this
used label ‘parasite singles’. tradition, and more elderly people are moving into
With a population of less than 13% aged under 15 retirement villages and nursing homes, freeing
years of age, one of the smallest figures for any younger family members to continue earning an
country in the world, Japan’s dependency ratio is income in the workforce.
64%. In other words, for every 100 people of Shops are also adapting to the needs of the elderly
working age in Japan, 64 people are dependent on population. Some shops have introduced ‘senior
them. This is a high dependency ratio, and it places salons’ that provide blood pressure monitors,
a significant burden on the Japanese economy as information leaflets on government health care
the Government struggles to raise taxation revenue services, and well-stocked shelves of elderly
to provide the services required for the burgeoning people’s needs such as incontinence pads (diapers),
elderly population. As figure 3.22 shows, Japan’s straw cups, bathing wipes, and special detergents
workforce reached its peak number in 1998, and it for cleaning up urine spillages. Many stores also
has been declining ever since. offer free delivery of purchases to the elderly, and
In order to address the needs of its ageing some offer special short-length part-time work for
population, the Japanese Government has elderly people who have only enough energy to
introduced a number of policy measures, work for a couple of hours at a time.
including:

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
Pro-natalist policies However, Singapore’s population is ageing, and if
current trends continue population numbers will
Some countries with slow rates of population peak in 2030 and then start to decline.
increase have introduced pro-natalist population
polices, which are designed to encourage more During the 1960s, when Singapore became an
births, raising the fertility rate and increasing independent nation, it was rapidly rising
population momentum. population numbers that were causing concern.
Large numbers of people had migrated to
Singapore’s Population Policy Singapore from China, Malaysia and India, and it
was feared that the large numbers might cause
Singapore has a pro-natalist population policy. The
strain in the new independent nation. At the time,
words of a Singaporean Government publication
summarise the rationale for the policy: an anti-natalist government policy of ‘stop-at-two’
“People are, and always will be, our most precious was introduced. The policy was so successful that
resource. More than anything else, it is the effort of Singapore’s population growth is now falling below
replacement level with an average fertility rate of
Singaporeans, with their drive and talent, that has
just 1.25 births per woman.
made the country what it is today. Overcoming great
odds as a newly-independent nation without natural In response to this situation, a new pro-natalist
resources, we have turned our city-state into a policy known as the New Population Policy was
thriving and modern economy.., In the next lap, the introduced in 1987. The target of the policy was
size of our population and the quality of our people young couples who were choosing to put their
will determine how successfully we fare. (But) the
population is not growing fast enough to replace itself
in the long term; many Singaporeans remain
unmarried; and those who do marry tend to have fewer
children... Too small a population will hinder our
development.”

At first, the claim that Singapore is underpopulated

might seem surprising for a country with 5.6
million people in an area of only 685 square
kilometres; its population density of about 8,000
people per square kilometre is among the highest in
the world (figure 3.23). Furthermore, Singapore’s
birth rate of 9 births per 1000 people easily exceeds
its death rate of 5 deaths per 1000 people.

3.23 Singapore is known as a ‘city-state’ because most of the

area of the nation is covered by urban development. Much of
Singapore consists of high-rise buildings to accommodate the 3.24 A pro-natalist population poster in a subway in Singapore.
high population density.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
6 However, the increase was temporary, and since
1988 Singapore’s fertility rate has been declining
5
(figure 3.25).

As fertility has declined, the proportion of elderly

people in the population has increased as the post-
4
B i rt hs p e r wo ma n

war baby boomers have reached old age. Figure

3.26 shows the percentages of various age groups in
3 Singapore since 1960. It is expected that in the year
2030, 25% of Singapore’s population will be aged 65
Replacement level
or older compared with 12% today. The Singapore
2
Government believes that the country can
comfortably accommodate over 5 million people
1 with substantial gains in the quality of life.

0
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
3.25 Singapore’s fertility rate, 1960 to 2017..
80

70

60
% of populati on

50

40

30 3.27 Singapore’s population policy targets intellectually

talented couples, and to support this aspect of the policy,
20
significant investment is made into the country’s schools and
education system. Consequently, Singapore’s schools
consistently perform well in international comparative testing.
10
The New Population Policy particularly targets
0 intellectually talented people. Whereas the policy
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 in general encourages each married couple to have
65+ years 15-64 years 0-14 years two children, couples that are university graduates
3.26 The percentage of the population in Singapore within are encouraged to have four children. In an effort
each broad age band, 1960 to 2018.
to raise the talent level of the population further,
careers, leisure and personal interests above Singapore is encouraging the immigration of well-
marriage and parenthood. Posters were placed on educated people from other parts of Asia and
buses and trains with slogans such as ‘Children – actively discouraging the emigration of university
Life would be empty without them’ and ‘Now that graduates.
you’ve married, take the next step’ (figure 3.24).

The aim of the New Population Policy was to Anti-natalist policies

increase Singapore’s fertility rate to 2.1, which is Concerns about rapid population growth are most
replacement rate. In 1986, the year before the common in countries at stages 2 and 3 of the
policy was introduced, fertility in Singapore fell to a demographic transition. Many governments in
record low of 1.4. In 1988, the first full year of the such countries feel the pressure to introduce
pro-natalist policy, fertility rose to 2.0, a significant policies to control this rapid population growth.
increase but still less than replacement level.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
Policies that are intended to slow population
growth are anti-natalist, and their focus is usually
to discourage births and lower the fertility rate.

There are three approaches to anti-natalist

population polices. The first is the regulatory
approach, where governments impose regulations
and restrictions that control the number of births.
A second approach is to offer incentives, such as
prizes or money to families that limit the number of
children they have. The third anti-natalist
approach is to argue that according to the
demographic transition, fertility will decline as
people become more affluent, and thus policies are
implemented to raise people’s standards of living in
the hope that this will result in reduced population
growth.

China’s Population Policy

One of the best-known anti-natalist population
policies was the ‘One Child Policy’ implemented in
China between 1980 to 2015. While it was in effect,
this policy was one of the most rigid of any country,
requiring that most families limit themselves to
having only one child.

Before 1949 when the Communist Party came to

power in a revolution, China was at stage 1 of the
demographic transition. Birth rates were high,
with the typical number of children per family
being between five and eight. However, death rates 3.28 In the early years of China’s One Child Policy, public
were also high and life expectancies were short – in education posters were displayed in every town and village to
1930 these were 23.7 years for females and 24.6 promote the guidelines. This view of the town of Yangshuo in
1985 shows a common theme at the time, where proud parents
years for males. Infant mortality rates were high
hold their daughter high to spread the message that daughters
(about 300 deaths per 1000 live births), and so with are just as good as sons.
both death rates and birth rates being very high,
thought. This information came to light at the same
population growth was slow.
time as many people were experiencing hardship
By 1949, China’s population had reached 538 and malnutrition as a result of the Great Leap
million people. In the early years of Communist Forward, a political campaign designed to catapult
rule, China followed a pro-natalist population China into modern industrialisation that went
policy in which large families were encouraged. terribly wrong. Against this background, China
This reflected traditional attitudes that had existed entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in
in China for many centuries, but it was supported the early 1960s as a result of improvements made to
by the leadership of the time. The new Communist medical services.
government saw a large population as making Following the leader’s (Chairman Mao Zedong’s)
China’s position in the world stronger, allowing
death in 1976, the Chinese government reversed its
China to take its proper place in the world as a
pro-natalist policy and began to advocate voluntary
nation-state of significance.
population control to reduce the birth rate and
In the 1950s, however, a census revealed that China accelerate the beginning of stage 3 of the
had 100 million people more than previously demographic transition. The argument put to the

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
Chinese people was based on Malthusian logic – Although the one-child policy was officially policed
China was modernising, but there was only a by the promise of incentives and rewards, in reality
certain fixed amount of wealth to divide among the there were also punishments for violating family
population. If people would limit their family planning regulations. Punishments arose for
sizes, then ‘a larger slice of cake’ would be available refusal to abort unapproved pregnancies, an
for each person. From the 1970s, birth control unapproved birth for couples under the legal
offices were established throughout China to give marriage age, or having an approved second child
advice about limiting family sizes and to distribute too soon. Family planning staff who violated
information to convince young families about the regulations by accepting bribes, making false
need to control population growth. reports, or issuing false birth certificates were also
punished. Penalties generally included fines, losing
At the same time, the minimum legal age for
government benefits, demotion or dismissal from
marriage was raised to 20 for females and 22 for
employment or from Communist Party
males so that couples would have fewer
membership.
childbearing years available to them. Moreover, the
Marriage Law adopted in 1980 required that There were only a few exceptions to the one-child
‘husband and wife are duty bound to practice policy. The first applied to families in some
family planning’. At about the time the new backward rural areas who were permitted to have
Marriage Law was passed, half of Chinese people two children on the basis that children were a vital
were married by the age of 23. part of the farming work force. The second
exception applied after 1995 to couples where both
husband and wife were themselves single children
– they were permitted have a second child.

Other exceptions included families whose first child

was disabled and unable to work, pregnancies
occurring after a childless couple had adopted a
child, couples facing difficulties in continuing the
family line, and Chinese people returning to China
after living abroad. In rural areas, couples with
‘real difficulties’ and certain peasants were allowed
a second child; the phrase ‘real difficulties’ was
generally understood to include situations where a
couple had a single female child. Even today in
3.29 A couple on their wedding day in Shanghai. It is a China, it is common to say ‘a little happiness has
condition of marriage in China that couples will practice family arrived’ when describing the birth of a girl, but ‘a
planning.
great happiness has arrived’ when a boy is born.
In 1980, the One Child Policy was introduced,
providing rewards and benefits for couples that
agreed to have only one child. Additional health
care subsidies were granted to one-child families,
together with priority health care, priority in
housing allocation, priority in educational
provision, extra land for private farming and extra
food rations. Furthermore, every member of a
work unit that met its standard target of 100% one-
child families received a financial bonus, and this
encouraged fellow-workers to put pressure on their
colleagues to have only one child. If parents later
had a second child, the privileges that had been
given were confiscated.
3.30 A single child in Tian Ma village, Guizhou.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
The one-child policy was implemented in a manner China’s changing sex ratios are shown in figure
that was often described as heavy handed outside 3.31. From 1949 until the introduction of the One
China. Women’s menstrual cycles were monitored Child Policy in 1980, there had been overall trend
by their work units, and compulsory pelvic towards equalising the percentage of males and
examinations were performed on all those females in the Chinese population. That trend
suspected of being pregnant. Insertion of IUDs in reversed following introduction of the One Child
women with one child was usually mandatory, and Policy as the proportion of males in the Chinese
these were checked by x-ray from time to time to population steadily increased. That trend is likely
ensure they had not been removed. Unauthorised to continue for some time into the future.
pregnancies were usually terminated by abortion
In introducing the One Child Policy, the Chinese
when detected regardless of stage of pregnancy.
government’s stated target was to limit its
There were reports of infanticide by drowning of population to 1.3 billion people by 2000 and to
girl babies in rural areas by couples who had lower the natural population growth rate to less
desperately wanted a son as their single child.
7
According to Chinese tradition, daughters join the
families of their husbands when they marry.
Therefore, girls are seldom able to support or care 6
for their parents in old age. By the 1990s,
thousands of ultrasound machines were being
5
imported to China so that couples could check the
Bir th s pe r woman

sex of their unborn baby. Domestic factories in

China began manufacturing ultrasound machines 4
at the rate of 10,000 a year. However, in 1993
authorities banned the use of ultrasound for the
3
purpose of sex selection, but this ban could never
be enforced. Some parts of China reported sex Replacement level
ratios at birth of 300 males to 100 females, and one 2
of the consequences of the One Child Policy today
is an excess of millions of bachelors because of the
abortion of girl babies. 1
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
3.32 China’s fertility rate, 1960 to 2018.
106.5 3

2.5
106.25
Po pu lat io n g r owt h, % pe r an num

2
M ales pe r 1 00 fe male s

106 1.5

1
105.75
0.5

105.5 0

-0.5
105.25
-1

105 -1.5
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016

3.31 China’s sex ratio, 1960 to 2018. 3.33 China’s population growth rate, 1960 to 2018. The decline
in 1961 was due to famine during the Great Leap Forward.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
1990 2010
Male Female Male Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

Male
2030 Female Male
2050 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (thousands) Age group Population (millions)

3.34 China’s changing population structure, 1990 to 2050.

than 10 per thousand (i.e. 1%) by the year 2000. begun to shift quite markedly (figures 3.34 and
Within a few years, the One Child Policy was 3.37). China is at an earlier stage of this transition
having a marked impact on China’s fertility rate, than Japan and Singapore, and is therefore enjoying
which fell below replacement level in 1993 and has the economic benefits of an increasing workforce
remained so ever since (figure 3.32). As a result of (the 15-64 age group) with a sharply declining
the declining fertility rate, China’s population
growth slowed following the reduction in fertility
rate (figure 3.33).

In 1962, China’s birth rate was 43 births per 1,000

people. By 1990 this had fallen to 21 per 1,000, and
by 2010 to 12 births per 1,000 people. In 1962,
China’s population was growing at an overall rate
of 2.5% per annum. By 1978, shortly before the One
Child Policy was introduced, growth had fallen to
1.3%. In 1980 when the new policy was introduced,
the growth rate fell further to 1.2%. After a slight
rise in the late 1980s, further falls have continued
slowly, and by 2015 when the One Child Policy was
abandoned, the growth rate had fallen to 0.5%. 3.35 In rural areas of China, which is where most of the
population lives, small medical clinics are the main source of
As result of the falling birth rate and longer life information for parents regarding family planning. This clinic
expectancies, China’s population structure has doctor in Zhu Ba, near Cengong, Guizhou, has been advising
parents on methods of birth control.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
80

70

60

% o f p o p u l a t i on
50

40

30

20

10

0
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
65+ years 15-64 years 0-14 years
3.37 The percentage of the population in China within each
broad age band, 1960 to 2018.

concerns were expressed that the increasing

proportion of elderly people in China would
become an economic burden unless the population
began growing more quickly to sustain workforce
numbers.

Therefore, since early 2016, China’s One Child

Policy has been replaced by a more relaxed policy
allowing couples to have two children that has
become known as the Two Child Policy. Although
3.36 The need to make adjustments to cater for the rising less extreme than the One Child Policy, the Two
proportion of elderly people in China was cited by the Child Policy also anti-natalist as couples have to
Government as its main reason for terminating the One Child
request permission from government authorities
Policy, replacing it with a Two Child Policy in 2016. This elderly
resident is in La Qia Fan village, a rural area of Guizhou through their work units to have a second child,
province. and the maximum allowance of two children per
youth population and a more slowly rising elderly family remains slightly below replacement level for
population. Consequently, China’s dependency the population.
ratio has fallen from 77.3 in 1960 to 40.4 in 2018,
representing a substantial boost for the health of the Gender equality and anti-
Chinese economy. This effect is known as the trafficking policies
demographic dividend.
Human trafficking is the world’s third largest
In spite of its successes, there were some significant illegal industry after illegal drugs and arms
problems with the One Child Policy. Many people trafficking, and it is thought to generate about
in China express concern that single children who US$32 billion per annum in profits for the traders.
have grown up without brothers or sisters have About half that amount is made in industrialised
become spoilt and selfish, and they are commonly countries.
known in China as ‘little emperors’. The concepts
Human trafficking is defined as the buying and
of ‘aunt’, ‘uncle’ and ‘cousin’ are disappearing
selling of human beings, usually across national
along with ‘sister’ and ‘brother’, and the overall
borders for purposes such as prostitution, sexual
policy was quite unpopular among Chinese people
slavery or forced labour. Many of the victims of
who felt it was too harsh. At a demographic level,

122
 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
human trafficking are tricked or coerced into the
trade, although others are abducted or blackmailed.
The extreme loss of power and autonomy by
victims of human trafficking mean that it is a form
of slavery, possibly the most common form of
slavery today as the ILO estimates that about 21
million victims are involved. Over half the people
who are trafficked across international borders are
female, although the statistical estimates range
from 55% to 80%. It is thought that half the victims
of human trafficking are children aged below 18
years; the average age that a trafficked girl enters
the prostitution industry in the United States is 12
to 14 years of age. 3.39 This large roadside sign in the village of Mazenod,
Lesotho, informs passers-by about significant women’s issues
Although there are international regulations that including safety in childbirth, provision of family planning,
prohibit human trafficking, the industry continues gender-based violence and harmful practices that include
to operate on a large scale. UNODC (the United human trafficking.
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) has a protocol world distribution of policies that are in place to
that requires UN member countries to have prevent human trafficking of females.
domestic laws prohibiting human trafficking.
These laws are expected to criminalise attempts to Kerala’s Population Policy
recruit, transport, harbour or receive people who
India is a major source, transit and destination
have been abducted, tricked or deceived in order to
country for human trafficking. Most human
exploit them.
trafficking in India involves forced labour, with
Because the majority of victims of human men, women and children held in bondage because
trafficking are females, countries and regions that of debts, often inherited from previous generations.
have laws and policies to protect women and These bonded labourers are forced to work in
promote gender equality tend to offer the most industries such as brick kilns, textile factories, rice
effective protection against human trafficking. mills, biscuit factories and embroidery factories.
Policies and practices to promote gender equality
Millions of women and girls in India have been
also seem to bring demographic benefits for the
forced into sex trafficking as a result of false
population as a whole. Figure 3.40 shows the

Country’s
role in
human
trafficking
Moderate source

Significant source

Major source

Source and destination

Major destination

Significant destination

3.38 Significant source and destination countries involved in human trafficking, and the direction of major flows.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities

Policies and
practices in
female trafficking

Illegal and rare

Illegal but some practice

Illegal but practised

Partially legal and practised

Not illegal and common

No data available

3.40 Policies and practices of human trafficking of females. Source: based on data from the WomanStats Project.

promises of employment or sham marriages, either Kerala is a state in southern India with an area of
within India or in Gulf States such as Qatar, 38,864 square kilometres and a population of 35
Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. million people. It is largely an agricultural state
Most victims of human trafficking are low-caste with coconut plantations and rice farms, and its
people, members of tribal minorities and other crops include black pepper, rubber, tapioca,
vulnerable women and girls. In contrast with the oilseeds, sugar cane, tea, coffee and teak timber.
rest of India, there is almost no human trafficking The capital city is Trivandrum (also known as
in the state of Kerala, and this is the result of some Thiruvananthapuram) with a population of 1.8
effective population policies in that state. million, although the city of Cochin (also known as
Kochi) is larger (about 2.3 million people) and is
one of India’s largest ports.

Kerala has had spectacular success in lowering its

birth rate without any strong regulations like China
or even any financial incentives like other parts of
India. Kerala is also attracting international
attention for its success in controlling deaths, and
especially for lowering its infant mortality rates.
According to the demographic transition model,
lowering birth rates occurs only when substantial
economic changes such as industrialisation and
urbanisation occur. However, Kerala’s fall in
fertility occurred at a time when Kerala had a
dismal record in industrial and agricultural
production and when unemployment was high.

Kerala has always been one of the most densely

populated parts of India. As long ago as 1901,
Kerala’s population density was double that of
India as a whole. Kerala’s population density of 900
people per square kilometre is three times India’s
national average. Kerala is also unusual in that
unlike the rest of India (and most of the world),
3.41 Map of Kerala.

124
 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
Kerala gives birth to more girls than boys, and the 2010. By 2031, it is expected that the number of
male to female ratio has been declining over the elderly people in Kerala will be about 9.6 million.
years. In 1901, Kerala’s sex ratio was 99.6 males for In 1991, there were only 16 elderly people for every
every 100 females; this figure fell to 98.9 in 1921, 100 people in the working ages of 20-59 years. This
97.3 in 1951, 96.7 in 1981 and 92.2 in 2011. figure has now risen to 22, and by 2031 it is
expected to have risen further to 60.
Traditionally, Kerala has had the highest fertility
rates and one of the lowest death rates in India. Such major changes in birth rates and death rates in
Therefore, its population growth rate was among a relatively short period of time have significant
the fastest in India. In the mid-1960s, Kerala’s birth implications. In the past, many resources have had
rate was about 42 per 1,000 people, but with the to be allocated to the needs of children, such as in
impact of the Indian government’s population education, children’s health, clothing and toys. In
policies this fell to 35 per 1,000 in 1970. By 1980, the the future, these resources will need to be diverted
birth rate had fallen to 30 per 1,000 and by 1990 to to care of the needs of the elderly – housing, food,
20 per 1,000. The decline has continued since then, medical care, and so on.
reaching 17 per 1,000 in 1993 and 14 per 1,000 in
At first, the significant demographic changes in
2006. It has remained at 14 per 1,000 since that
Kerala may seem puzzling, especially as Kerala lags
time. With a fertility rate of 1.7, Kerala’s population
behind the rest of India according to most economic
growth has slowed to less than replacement level, a
measures. Kerala’s elected state government has
remarkable decline in fertility in the space of just
had long periods of Communist control. The
over 30 years.
Communists have believed that as most of Kerala’s
As a result of the falling birth rate, many schools people live in the rural areas, improving the quality
are empty and industries catering to children’s of life of rural people is the key to economic
needs are likely to have a bleak future. On the development. Therefore, most government
other hand, the proportion of aged people in Kerala expenditure has gone into education and health
will grow in the years ahead. The proportion of care in rural areas – village schools and rural health
people in Kerala aged 60 and over in 1961 was clinics.
5.8%. By 1981, this figure had risen to 7.5%. It is
now 11.8%, and is expected to rise to 18.4% by 2026.

The decline in birth rates has been matched by large

falls in the death rates. Although Kerala has
traditionally lower death rates than the rest of
India, its death rate reached 13 per 1,000 people in
1993 and fell further to 7 deaths per 1,000 people in

3.43 A typical rural medical clinic in Kerala. This example is in

Pavankulangara village, east of Cochin.

Kerala officials have not spent any more money on

health and education than other Indian states, but
they have ensured that money is spent on low cost
rural facilities where the people live rather than on
large prestigious projects in the cities. Today, there
are 1,070 hospital beds per 100,000 people in Kerala
3.42 Ambulances like this can bring rural residents in Kerala
quickly to major hospital in larger urban centres to treat serious compared with an average of only 487 for India as a
injuries and health conditions.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities

3.44 A hospital that is dedicated to treating women and 3.46 Girls and boys attending a high school together in
children in Mattanchery, Kerala. Poothotta, Kerala.
whole. Of these beds, 56% are in rural areas, illness, bolder to question their mother-in-law’s
whereas for India in general, only 18% of hospital authority, more demanding of better health care
beds are in rural areas. In Kerala, 47% of villages and better food for their children, thus raising
have a health clinic within two kilometres, but for incomes and therefore standards of living. This
India in general the figure is only 12%. helps to explain why educating girls in India has
improved community health, lowered the birth rate
Kerala has paid particular attention to raising
and provided a defence against exploitation by
female literacy. Traditionally in India, girls were
human trafficking.
often denied an education, but in Kerala girls were
treated equally with boys. Kerala has the highest With the exception of the rise in female literacy,
literacy rate of any state in India, with 94% literacy there has been no substantial change in Kerala’s
compared with the national average of 74%. At the economy that might have accelerated the
last census for which data has been released (2011), demographic transition in the way that seems to
92% of all women in Kerala aged 15 and above have happened. However, there has been a
were literate, compared with 65% for all of India. fundamental shift in the attitudes of people of
Kerala to want fewer children but to give each child
a better quality of life. The decline in Kerala’s
fertility is an example of diffusion, which is the
spread outwards of an idea from a single point of
origin. Evidence that the fertility decline in Kerala
is an example of diffusion is as follows:

• The increase in the minimum age for females to

marry was not an important factor in Kerala’s
fertility decline; it accounted for only 15% of the
decline between 1961 and 1981.

• Fertility declined at the same time as knowledge

about contraception was becoming more
widespread.
3.45 Girls’ academic achievements are celebrated publicly on a
sign in front of a school in Kochupally, near South Paravoor, • The decline in fertility happened very quickly;
Kerala. over a period of 30 years fertility went from a
Research has shown that there is an inverse typical developing country situation to below
relationship between a mother’s education and replacement level.
early deaths of children. It is believed that more
education makes mothers less fatalistic about • The decline in fertility and the rise in female
literacy seem very closely linked.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
5. Describe the policy measures that the Japanese Government
has implemented to address the consequences of an ageing
population.

6. What measures are being taken by families and businesses

to address the needs of Japan’s elderly population?

7. What is meant by the terms ‘pro-natalist policy’ and ‘anti-

natalist policy’?

8. In what way has the aim of Singapore’s population policy

changed over the past decades?

9. Why is Singapore’s population policy particularly targeting

university graduates?

10. Quoting relevant statistics where possible, evaluate the

3.47 A streetside advertisement for an infertility clinic in Cochin. success of Singapore’s population policy.
• Fertility declined more among non-Muslims than 11. Why did China have a pro-natalist population policy in the
Muslims, suggesting that contraception is more 1950s?
likely to be adopted where it does not violate
12. In what way does raising the minimum age for marriage
religious and social norms.
control population growth?
Does Kerala’s experience have applicability to
13. Outline the aims of China’s One Child Policy, and describe
other areas of India and the world? For Kerala, the
the ways in which the policy was implemented from 1980 to
key to lowering fertility and preventing human 2018.
trafficking seems to have been raising the level of
female literacy. Kerala has been successful in 14. What exceptions were made under the One Child Policy?
raising female literacy for three reasons. First, mass 15. What were the consequences of China’s One Child Policy?
education has been a central policy of governments Quote relevant statistics where possible.
in Kerala for many decades. Second, Kerala has a
16. Why did the Chinese Government decide to replace the One
high proportion of Christians in the population, Child Policy with a Two Child Policy in 2016?
and this group is more open to the education of
females than most other religious groups in Kerala. 17. Contrast the aims of the Singaporean and the Chinese
population policies.
Finally, the high population density in Kerala
increases people’s accessibility to schools, raising 18. What is ‘human trafficking’?
the participation rate in education. The rest of
19. With reference to figure 3.38, describe the world distribution
India lags some 40 years behind Kerala in the level
of (a) the source countries for human trafficking and (b) the
of female literacy, and it is even possible that the destination countries for human trafficking.
rest of India will never bridge this gap because of
20. With reference to figure 3.38, outline the major flows used
the traditional barriers to educating females among
for human trafficking.
many groups in India.
21. With reference to figure 3.40, describe the world distribution
QUESTION BANK 3D of policies that attempt to control human trafficking of
females, and outline their effectiveness.
1. With reference to figures 3.22, 3.26 and 3.37, compare the
trends in age group distributions in Japan, Singapore and 22. Describe the location of the Indian state of Kerala.
China from 1960 to 2018.
23. Write about 300 words to describe the demographic change
2. Describe and account for the world pattern of population that has occurred in Kerala.
policies that is shown in figure 3.18.
24. Describe the relationship between infants’ and children’s
3. Explain why Japan has the world’s highest percentage of mortality rates and the educational level of women.
elderly people.
25. What will be the impact of Kerala’s demographic changes in
4. What is Japan’s dependency ratio, and what challenges does the years ahead?
it pose for Japan?

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
26. List and then briefly describe the factors that have caused This places urgency upon governments in countries
Kerala’s large demographic changes. where the dependency ratio is decreasing to ensure
27. What is meant by the claim that ‘the fertility decline (in
the economy is structured in a way that the gains
Kerala) is an example of diffusion’? from the demographic dividend can be realised.

28. To what extent could Kerala’s approach in controlling The economic growth experienced by China
population growth be applied to other parts of the world following the introduction of the One Child Policy
such as China and sub-Saharan Africa? is an example of a demographic dividend that was
supported by structural economic reforms that
The demographic further accelerated economic growth. Another
example of a country that benefitted economically
dividend from the demographic dividend was Thailand.
The demographic dividend is the accelerated Contraceptive use in Thailand increased from 15%
economic growth that a country may experience of women in the reproductive ages in 1970 to 70%
when its dependency ratio declines as a result of its by 1987, resulting in a decline of the fertility rate
changing population structure. The demographic from 5.5 children per women in 1970 to 2.2 by 1990.
dividend is strongest when the country experiences Table 3.1
the combined impact of falling birth rates without a Countries and regions with low dependency ratios
consequent rise in ageing/greying of the
GNI per
population. In other words, if a country’s 15-64 age % of
Dependency capita
Country population
band increases as a percentage of total population, ratio growth rate
aged 15-64
then the country has a good opportunity to (% pa)
experience a demographic dividend (figure 3.48).
Qatar 85.1 17.5 -0.7
In general, the demographic dividend is an United Arab Emirates 84.3 18.6 -0.4
opportunity for economic growth that has a limited
Bahrain 78.3 27.7 0.4
duration of about 10 to 20 years. This because
falling birth rates that reduce the dependency ratio Singapore 76.3 31.1 2.8

are usually followed by falling death rates that Maldives 76.2 31.3 n.a.
result in an ageing population, which raises the Kuwait 75.9 31.7 -3.2
dependency ratio once again. In other words, the Macao 75.9 31.8 8.2
opportunity to benefit from the demographic
Oman 75.4 32.7 -4.3
dividend corresponds to the transition period from
Moldova 72.7 37.6 3.5
stage 3 to stage 4 of the demographic transition.
South Korea 72.6 37.7 2.3
% Brunei 72.1 38.7 -0.4
Birth rate demographic
dividend Saudi Arabia 71.6 39.6 -0.1
population
Death rate Hong Kong 71.2 40.4 2.8
growth
China 71.2 40.4 6.3

Thailand 71.0 40.8 3.7

Mauritius 70.7 41.4 3.5

North Korea 70.5 41.9 n.a.

tion
a g e popula the sweet
Azerbaijan 70.4 42.0 2.6
g
Workin total
spot

a s h are of Bahamas 70.3 42.3 1.0

as Luxembourg 69.9 43.0 3.6
e
ncom Macedonia 69.8 43.2 2.4
onal i
Nati Brazil 69.7 43.4 0.7
Time
Vietnam 69.6 43.8 5.1
3.48 The demographic dividend model. Note that figures refer to 2018. n.a. = no data available.
Source: World Bank.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
This helped Thailand achieve rapid rates of For the demographic dividend to occur, some or all
economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s. However, of the following factors are required:
Thailand’s demographic dividend is now over. Its
• A reduction in the dependency ratio, usually as
dependency ratio has started to climb as the
a result of a fall in the fertility rate that leads to a
proportion of elderly people increases, and
decline in the birth rate without an equivalent
although its economic growth rates continue to
rise in death rates.
fluctuate through a succession of political
upheavals, growth has generally been slow since • An expansion of the workforce as more women
the Asian currency crisis of 2008. enter paid employment rather than raising
children on a full-time basis (presuming this does
not lead to an over-supply in the labour market).

• Investment in the productivity of young people

through improving access to good quality
education, ensuring adequate nutrition and
access to high quality health care.

• Savings increase as families spend less on fewer

dependents, creating funds for banks,
governments and financial institutions to invest
in infrastructure.

• Demand for goods and services expands in the

economy as lower proportions of people’s
3.49 The demographic dividend in Thailand helped spark a earnings need to be spent on basic needs such as
period of rapid economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s,
food, clothing and shelter to support dependents.
earning Thailand the label of a ‘tiger economy’. During that
period until the early 2010s, large-scale developments such as As countries progress into stage 4 of the
these high rise buildings and the elevated railway line in the
demographic transition, the dependency ratio
Lumphini district of Bangkok were built.
inevitably begins to rise as the proportion of elderly
Table 3.1 shows the countries that had the lowest
people in the people in the population grows. This
dependency ratios in the world in 2018, together
brings an end to the period when a country might
with their rates of economic growth, using the
benefit from the demographic dividend, and
percentage change in Gross National Incomes per
governments must instead focus on meeting the
capita as the indicator of growth. Of the 23
needs of an ageing/greying population. This
countries listed, 6 had negative growth rates, which
transition is sometimes referred to as a
meant the size of the economy was shrinking rather
demographic tax or demographic burden, and as
than growing. Of the 15 growing economies, only 7
we saw earlier in this chapter, it applies in countries
had per capita growth rates exceeding 3% p.a.
such as Japan.
These statistics demonstrate the simple fact that
having a population structure with a low
CASE STUDY
dependency ratio is no guarantee that the
demographic dividend will occur in a country. Vietnam
In some countries, the dependency ratio may Vietnam has experienced significant changes in its
decline because of a large influx of migrant demographic structure over the past four decades
workers rather than a fall in the birth rate. Several that have enabled a demographic dividend to boost
of the countries listed in table 3.1 have low its economic growth substantially.
dependency ratios for this reason, examples being Vietnam has had population control policies since
oil producing countries on the western side of the the 1960s. In the early 1960s, the Communist
Persian Gulf (also known as the Arabian Gulf). Government in North Vietnam introduced the Two
When the dependency ratio declines because of an Child Policy under the slogan “một hoặc hai con”,
influx of migrant workers, this is not regarded as a which means “one or two children”. The Two
demographic dividend.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
Child Policy was extended into southern Vietnam 80

% (birth rate and death rate) - Years (life expectancy)

after reunification in 1975. The policy was
70
implemented with varying degrees of severity at
different times, but it allowed the use of abortions
60
as well as providing incentives such as
contraceptives and punishments such as fines.
50
During the late 1960s and early 1970s while the
country was engulfed in a bitter civil war, 40
Vietnam’s fertility rate was 6.5 births per woman, a
very high figure by world standards. By the early 30

2000s, the fertility rate had fallen to 1.9 births per

woman, and it has remained in the 1.9 to 2.0 range 20

since that time (figure 3.50). The fall in fertility was

10
fastest during the 1980s.
7
0
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
Birth rate Death rate Life expectancy
6
3.51 Birth rate, death rate and life expectancy at birth in
Vietnam, 1960 to 2018.

5 for Vietnam to benefit from its demographic

Bir th s pe r woman

dividend.
4 The evidence shows that Vietnam did experience
significant economic growth, and the demographic
3
dividend was an important component of this
growth. Indeed, Vietnam’s rapid and sustained
Replacement level economic growth made the country one of Asia’s
2 economic success stories over the past few decades.

Vietnam transformed itself from a divided nation

1 ravaged by a decade-long war in the mid-1970s into
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
3.50 Vietnam’s fertility rate, 1960 to 2017. 80

During the same period, Vietnam’s birth rates and

70
death rates fell, and life expectancies increased
(figure 3.51). The cumulative effects of these
60
changes caused significant changes in Vietnam’s
population structure (figures 3.52 and 3.53).
% o f p o pulati on

50
Vietnam’s working age group (15-64) has been
rising steadily since the early 1970s. However, it is 40
peaking in 2017, and it is predicted to decline as the
proportion of elderly people begins to increase 30
from its 2017 level of 6.8% to a predicted 11% in
2030. At the same time, the proportion of young 20
people aged 0-14 has been stabilising at 23% after
more than three decades of decline, and it is 10
predicted that this percentage will continue without
significant change in the foreseeable future. As a 0
1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016
consequence of the interplay of these changes,
65+ years 15-64 years 0-14 years
Vietnam’s dependency ratio declined from 96.7 in
3.52 The percentage of the population in Vietnam within each
1970 to 42.5 in 2015, providing a great opportunity broad age band, 1960 to 2018.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
1990 2010
Male Female Male Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

Male
2030 Female Male
2050 Female
100+ 100+
95 - 99 95 - 99
90 - 94 90 - 94
85 - 89 85 - 89
80 - 84 80 - 84
75 - 79 75 - 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
65 - 69 65 - 69
60 - 64 60 - 64
55 - 59 55 - 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
45 - 49 45 - 49
40 - 44 40 - 44
35 - 39 35 - 39
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
Population (millions) Age group Population (millions) Population (millions) Age group Population (millions)

3.53 Vietnam’s changing population structure, 1990 to 2050.

an economy that has continuously averaged over its economy was expanding and opening up
5% per annum since 1986. In the mid-1980s, internationally. A detailed analysis of the
Vietnam’s Communist Government embarked on a Vietnamese economy by the international
series of economic reforms called ‘đổi mới’ that consulting company, McKinsey Global Institute,
enabled the markets to operate freely, guided an concluded that three factors made roughly equal
agriculturally-based economy into development of contributions to Vietnam’s economic growth:
manufacturing and service industries, and tapped
into the demographic dividend by educating
children and youth so they could participate in new
workplace opportunities. Vietnam opened itself to
the world economy, joining the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) in 2007, normalising trade
with the United States (its enemy during the
1965-75 war) and building trade links with its
regional partner nations in ASEAN. Consequently,
Vietnam has recorded economic growth above the
world average every year since 1991 (figure 3.55).
In Asia, China has been the only country whose
economy has grown faster than Vietnam since 1996.

It was fortunate for Vietnam that it could benefit 3.54 The slogan on this large roadside population planning
from the demographic dividend at the same time as poster in Nha Trang reads “Don’t ruin the world. Don’t choose
the sex of your fetus by selecting semen or sperm”.

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 Chapter 3 - Challenges and opportunities
16 decade beginning 2000, Vietnam’s labour force
expanded by 2.8% per annum, which was more
than double the national rate of population growth.
In some countries, this may have caused large-scale
10.5
unemployment, but in Vietnam it fuelled economic
p e r ce nt p e r a n nu m

growth as the new entrants to the workforce were

literate, well educated, and able to cope with the
structural changes happening in the economy at the
5
time. Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991, which was Vietnam’s major trading partner at
the time, Vietnam was able to boost its efficiency
-0.5 and productivity, becoming the world’s third
largest rice exporter, a significant oil producer and
an important exporter of manufactured goods such
as clothes, shoes, electronics and machinery.
-6
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 As Vietnam’s dependency ratio increases in the
World average Vietnam years ahead, the three to four decade long period of
3.55 GNI per capita growth in Vietnam compared with world demographic dividend will start to wane. As the
average, 1990 to 2018. demographic dividend becomes less important in
Vietnam, its economic growth can be expected to
• the increase in labour force that was made
slow down unless further productivity increases
possible by the demographic dividend.
offset the approaching inevitable demographic
• a structural shift from agriculture towards burden.
manufacturing and service industries.
Meanwhile, alarm at Vietnam’s low fertility rate has
• an increase in productivity brought about by caused the Government to consider abandoning its
mechanisation and improved health of the Two Child Policy, which is essentially a policy to
population. maintain fertility rates. New laws in Vietnam
propose giving parents the right to decide how
In 1999, 34% of Vietnam’s population were aged
many children they want and the interval between
between 5 and 19. This group joined the labour
births, a right that has not existed since 1960.
force during the following decade, adding 12
million more people to the labour force. In the QUESTION BANK 3E
1. What is the demographic dividend?

2. With reference to birth rates, death rates, the demographic

transition, dependency ratios and population structures,
describe the demographic conditions that are likely to
deliver a demographic dividend.

3. Explain why not all countries with a low dependency ratio

experience a demographic dividend.

4. Using the information in figures 3.50, 3.51, 3.52, 3.53 and

3.54, describe and account for the demographic changes
experienced in Vietnam since 1960.

5. Quoting statistics where possible, provide evidence that

Vietnam benefitted economically from its demographic
dividend.
3.56 Motor cyclists ride past large government-sponsored
roadside posters in Ho Chi Minh City that promote economic 6. Explain why it is likely that the impact of Vietnam’s
growth, encouraging effort to excel in areas such as daily life, demographic dividend will wane in the coming decades.
farming, construction industry and education.

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 Section 2

Climate change —
vulnerability and
resilience

Local villagers build a sea wall to protect the land against rising sea levels at
Red Beach on Betio Island, Kiribati.

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 Chapter
4 Causes of global
climate change

4.1 Thinning of the atmosphere with increasing altitude is clearly visible in this view over northern Canada.

• Thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest

The atmospheric system layer of the atmosphere, extending from about 80
kilometres above sea level out to the farthest
The atmosphere limits of the atmosphere. The gases in this layer
The atmosphere is like a thin film surrounding the of the atmosphere are very thin, and the
earth. If the earth were the size of a soccer ball on a thermosphere makes up only 0.001% of the mass
wet field, the atmosphere would be like the wet of the atmosphere. In fact, there is little
layer around it. In fact, the atmosphere is about 500 difference between the thermosphere and a
kilometres thick, although half the mass of the vacuum. The gases in this layer are oxygen,
atmosphere is found in the lowest six kilometres, hydrogen and nitrogen, and these absorb ultra-
and 99% of the atmosphere is contained in the violet radiation from the sun, heating up to very
lowest 40 kilometres. high temperatures exceeding 200°C and
sometimes exceeding 1000°C.
Within the atmosphere there are four distinct
layers, defined by whether the temperatures are • Mesosphere. The mesosphere is the second
rising or falling with altitude. The layers are: highest layer of the atmosphere, extending

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
lower parts of the stratosphere, most of the ultra-
violet radiation has already been absorbed, so
temperatures are cooler. The temperature at the
top of the stratosphere is a fairly constant 0°C,
but at its lower limit (the tropopause) the
temperature is typically about -50°C.

4.3 The troposphere is the layer of the atmosphere closest to

the earth’s surface, and it is where weather occurs, such as this
afternoon thunderstorm over the Baliem Valley in the Highlands
of West Papua, Indonesia.
• Troposphere. The troposphere is the lowest
layer of the atmosphere, and it contains most of
the mass of the atmosphere, as well as most of the
dust, water vapour and pollution. It is the layer
in which the weather occurs, and it behaves
quite differently to the other three layers.
Whereas the three upper layers obtain their heat
directly from solar radiation, the troposphere is
4.2 A cross-section of the atmosphere showing the four layers warmed indirectly by reflected heat from the
and temperatures at each level.
earth’s surface and clouds. Temperatures in the
between about 50 and 80 kilometres above sea troposphere fall by about 6.5°C for every 1000
level. This is the coldest part of the atmosphere metres rise in altitude, although this figure varies
because there is very little cloud, dust, ozone or from place to place. The troposphere comprises a
water vapour to absorb heat from the sun. The mixture of gases, but the most important ones
mesopause, which separates the mesosphere are nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%), argon (almost
from the thermosphere above it, is always a 1%), and carbon dioxide (0.003%). Other gases
constant -90°C. The mesosphere also has the such as hydrogen, helium, krypton, methane,
strongest winds in the atmosphere, approaching neon, ozone and xenon together make up only
3,000 kilometres per hour in places. 0.001% of the atmosphere. The troposphere also
contains water vapour (the gaseous form of
• Stratosphere. The stratosphere is found below water), but the proportion of water vapour varies
the mesosphere in a band from about 20 greatly from place to place and from day to day.
kilometres to 50 kilometres above sea level.
There is a concentration of ozone in the QUESTION BANK 4A
stratosphere, and as ozone absorbs ultra-violet 1. Draw up a table to contrast the characteristics of the four
radiation very well, temperatures rise with layers of the earth’s atmosphere.
increasing altitude in the stratosphere. In the

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
The global heat budget and atmosphere, especially water vapour. Altogether,
19% of incoming solar radiation is absorbed in the
atmospheric circulation atmosphere.
All the processes of the atmosphere (and indeed all The earth’s surface absorbs 47% of the insolation,
life on earth) depend on energy from the sun. The some directly and some after being reflected or
sun’s energy is enormous. The surface area of the scattered by the atmosphere. A small amount of
sun is 65 million billion square metres, and the radiation is reflected by the earth’s surface back
energy sent from each square metre is enough to into space. The amount of energy reflected from a
power one million light bulbs. A small part of the particular place depends on the kind of surface on
energy produced by the sun reaches the earth. The the earth at that point. Light, shiny surfaces, such
incoming solar radiation, known as insolation,
as snow and ice, have much higher reflectivity (or
arrives in the form of short-wave radiation.
albedo) than darker, duller surfaces, such as dark
Short-wave radiation from the sun is mainly visible soil or a green forest.
light towards the purple end of the spectrum with a
wavelength of 0.39 to 0.76 μm (micrometres, or
microns). The reason that the sun’s energy is short-
wave radiation is that the sun is so hot; 5,300°C.
Cooler bodies such as the moon and the earth, emit
long-wave radiation, which is mainly infrared heat
with a wavelength of about 4 to 30 μm.

When the sun’s energy reaches the atmosphere, it is

dispersed in different ways. Although clouds cover
about half of the earth at any time, they are poor
absorbers of the sun’s energy. Much more solar
energy is absorbed by dust and gases in the

4.5 Water and snow have a high albedo (over 90%) if the sun’s
angle is low, but this falls to 5% under a noon sun or if the water
is choppy. This evening view of the Pacific Ocean in Fiji shows
high albedo from the sea but high absorption in the clouds.

The amount of heat received at the earth’s surface

varies according to latitude. Less solar energy is
absorbed by the ground in polar areas than
equatorial areas for three reasons. First, the sun’s
rays strike the earth’s surface at a lower angle near
the poles. Therefore an equivalent amount of solar
energy approaching the equator and the poles must
be spread over a larger area in polar areas, meaning
that there is less heat per square metre on the
surface.

The second reason that the poles receive less solar

radiation is that the sun’s rays must penetrate a
greater thickness of atmosphere near the poles
than near the equator. This is because the rays
penetrate the atmosphere at an oblique angle. As a
result of this, the dust and gases of the atmosphere
absorb more heat and light, and less reaches the
earth’s surface.
4.4 The ways insolation is dispersed in the earth’s atmosphere.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
absorbers of long-wave radiation and thus absorb
the energy emitted by the Earth’s surface to a
greater extent than they absorb the short-wave
radiation coming from the sun.

If we examine the amount of energy received and

lost at different latitudes over an entire year, we can
discern the heat budget shown in figure 4.7. The
graph shows the average annual insolation at each
latitude (curve I) and the average annual loss of
long-wave energy (curve II). Although the total
incoming energy (curve I) equals the total outgoing
energy (curve II), there is a net surplus of energy
between the equator and latitudes 38° North and
South, while latitudes between 38° North and South
and the poles have a net deficit.

4.6 The intensity of solar radiation depends on the angle which

the sun’s rays meet the earth’s surface. The angle of the sun’s
rays (a, b and c in the lower diagram) and the thickness of the
atmosphere through which the sun’s rays must pass (d1, d2 and
d3 in the upper diagram) depend on the latitude. At high
latitudes near the poles, the same amount of insolation is spread
over a larger area, making the heat less intense.

The third reason that the earth’s surface at the poles 4.7 The earth’s heat budget. Average annual insolation at each
absorbs less solar radiation is that more of the light latitude is shown by curve I, while average loss of long-wave
energy is shown by curve II. Latitudes between the equator and
that does reach the surface is reflected back into
38˚N and S have a net surplus of energy, while latitudes
space. The shiny white ice and snow of the poles between 38˚N and S and the poles have a net deficit. Note that
has a much higher albedo than the water and the horizontal axis has been scaled in proportion to area.
vegetation of the equatorial zones. In fact, snow
We know that over the history of the planet, the
and ice reflect about 80% of the solar energy
equatorial regions have not continued to heat up
whereas grass and trees will absorb between 65%
while the polar areas have not kept getting colder.
and 85% of solar energy. Furthermore, any surface
The reason for this is that a complex mechanism of
becomes shinier when light hits it at a low angle —
atmospheric circulation redistributes heat from the
even a black bitumen road seems shiny when
equatorial regions (low latitudes) to the polar
viewed at a low angle. The light that reaches the
regions (high latitudes). It is this redistribution of
polar surfaces does so at a very low angle, and so
heat energy that creates the world’s pressure
much of it is reflected rather than absorbed.
systems and winds.
When radiation is reflected from the earth’s surface,
Of all the solar energy received by the earth, 34% is
the wavelength becomes longer, which means that
reflected back into space, either from the earth’s
the radiation shifts towards the red and infrared
surface (2%), from the atmosphere itself (7%) or
end of the spectrum. In other words, less of the
from clouds (25%). However, before the energy is
radiation is in the form of light, and more of it is in
reflected back into space, some of it is retained in
the form of heat. This is significant because the
the atmosphere for a while, and this is the heat that
gases of the atmosphere are relatively good

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
provides the warmth that makes the earth habitable always fluctuated through warm and cold periods.
by humans. This process where the output of heat Climate is not static; it is dynamic.
from the atmosphere equals the input at the same
Figure 4.6 shows the changes in Greenland’s
time as an amount is retained for a while is known
climate over the past 75,000 years up until the
as the natural greenhouse effect. This is the same
mid-1980s. We can see from these graphs that the
principle by which a greenhouse provides a warm
climate has only been warmer than present levels
environment for crops to grow, hence the name.
for about 15% of the past 75,000 years. We can also
Without the natural greenhouse effect, the earth
see that temperatures have varied even within short
would be 33C° cooler than it is now. (Note that when
periods of time, and in some cases, this has had
we refer to actual temperatures, we use the format 33°C,
major effects on human activities such as fishing
but when we discuss differences between two
and farming.
temperatures we use the format 33C°).

4.8 Farmers use greenhouses to build up heat for cultivation of

fruit and vegetables in cool climates. Heat builds up naturally in
the earth’s atmosphere like a greenhouse. These greenhouses
near Berat in Albania are being used to cultivate tomatoes.

QUESTION BANK 4B
1. With reference to figure 4.4, state the proportion of
4.9 Temperature changes in Greenland over the past 75,000
insolation which (a) is absorbed by the earth’s surface, (b) is
years up to the mid-1980s. In the top graph (a), we see that the
absorbed by the atmosphere, and (c) is lost to space.
last ice age ended about 11,000 years ago. In the middle graph
2. Explain the significance of the shift in wavelength of the (b), we see that average temperatures for the past 1,000 years
sun’s radiation when it is reflected from the earth’s surface. (approximately) were lower than for the period since 1950. In
the bottom graph (c), we see that temperatures since 1930 have
3. Explain why the equator receives more energy from the sun been relatively mild in Greenland. On all three graphs, we see
than the poles. How is this heat surplus dispersed? that temperature changes can occur quite suddenly, and both
‘cooler’ and ‘warmer’ periods can have warm or cold years
4. What is the natural greenhouse effect? within them. We also see that warm and cold peaks can have
significant influence on human activities and settlement.
Obviously, the changes shown in figure 4.6
The natural greenhouse occurred due to natural causes, as the number of
effect humans for most of the past 75,000 years was far
too small to have any significant impact on the
If the global heat budget never varied, the natural environment at a global scale. Natural causes of
greenhouse effect would always be constant. If climate change might include changes in levels of
there were no changes in the planet’s inputs or solar activity, the impact of volcanic activity (extra
outputs of energy, our climate would never change. dust in the atmosphere can lead to cooling),
However, we know from historical, geological and variations in Earth’s orbit (perhaps with changing
biogeographical records that Earth’s climate has

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
distances from the sun) and changes in the case of the Sun, the energy released covers a wide
humidity and cloud cover. spectrum of wavelengths from long wavelength
(low frequency) radio waves through to short
Notwithstanding the importance of natural causes
wavelength (high frequency) gamma rays. Visible
of climate change, extensive research and data
light occurs within a narrow band in between low
analysis by geographers and scientists has led to a
frequency infrared radiation (or heat) and high
general acceptance that humans also have a
frequency ultraviolet radiation. The spectrum of
significant impact on Earth’s climate. Moreover,
visible light we see in a rainbow is an expansion of
human impact is increasing as world population
this narrow band of visible (white) light, ranging
grows and human activities produce more
from red at the low frequency (long wavelength)
pollutants.
end of the spectrum through orange, yellow, green,
The global energy balance is not static, and blue to violet at the high frequency (short
consequently climate changes. World climate is wavelength) end of the visible spectrum.
vulnerable to pressures and processes that can
distort the global energy balance. Any change in
the balance between insolation and energy radiated
back to space is known as radiative forcing.
Positive forcing warms the atmosphere as more
incoming solar energy (insolation) is received or the
amount of radiation lost back to space is reduced.
Negative forcing cools the atmosphere as less
insolation is received or the quantity of radiation
lost to space increases. Pressures and processes that
cause radiative forcing are called forcing agents.

Some forcing agents are external, which means they

originate away from Planet Earth and its
atmosphere. Examples of external forcings include 4.10 A rainbow forms in the spray at Victoria Falls on the border
of Zambia and Zimbabwe, showing the spectrum of visible light
changes in the sun’s production of energy and
from long wavelength red (at the top) through to short
variations in Earth’s orbit. Forcing agents that are wavelength violet (at the bottom).
not external are internal, which means they
originate within Planet Earth and its atmosphere. The Sun’s energy travels outwards in straight lines,
Examples of internal forcings include changes in called rays, at a speed of about 300,000 kilometres
the composition of the atmosphere, changes in per second. At that speed, it takes about eight and
ocean currents and circulation, and volcanic activity a half minutes for the Sun’s energy to reach Earth,
such as eruptions. which orbits the Sun at a distance averaging about
150 million kilometres.
In this section, three sets of forcing agents will be
considered: solar variability, terrestrial changes in As energy radiates away from the Sun, none of it is
albedo, and greenhouse gas emissions such as lost as it travels through space. However, as the
methane. Sun’s rays spread outwards with increasing
distance from their source, planets that are further
Solar radiation variations away receive less energy than those that are closer.

The Sun is the star at the centre of our solar system The Sun produces energy at a rate that is nearly
that provides the energy for most processes that constant, and therefore the quantity of solar energy
occur on Earth, including our weather and climate. the Earth receives each day is almost constant. The
The Sun is a ball of gases that are constantly rate at which energy comes from the Sun is known
swirling in a turbulent, seething mass at extremely as the solar constant. The solar constant is
high temperatures. The surface temperature of the measured beyond the limits of Earth’s atmosphere
Sun is about 6,000˚C, and like any hot object, it before any of it is diffused or absorbed, and it has a
emits energy as electromagnetic radiation. In the mean value of 1367.7 W/m2 (Watts per square
metre).

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We say that the solar constant is a mean (or the helium ‘sinks’ towards the core of the Sun,
average) figure because it does vary slightly, and forcing the lighter hydrogen outwards to the
this results in fluctuations in the amount of energy surface.
available for Earth’s atmospheric and other
As a result of this process, the hydrogen-helium
processes. We use the term solar variability to refer
mix in the Sun is gradually becoming denser,
to the changes in energy (or radiation) produced by
thus raising the pressure, which causes the
the Sun. Solar variations arise for several reasons:
nuclear reactions within the Sun to become
• Solar evolution: About 4.5 billion years ago, the hotter. This causes the Sun to become brighter.
Sun was about 8% smaller and about 3% less The Sun is almost half-way through its process of
radiant than it is now, so the solar constant at that burning hydrogen at its core, so this trend of
time was about 30% less than the present figure. brightening is expected to continue for about
When they first form, all stars (including the Sun) another 4.8 billion years. By that time, the Sun is
comprise about 75% hydrogen and 25% helium. predicted to be about 67% brighter and about
As billions of years pass, the hydrogen at the core 10% larger than its present size, raising the mean
of stars such as the Sun burns, producing helium solar constant to a level that is about 1.5 times the
as a product. Helium is denser than hydrogen, so current figure.

4.11 Ice core data from Vostok Station, Antarctica. The top graph shows temperature variations in macro-cycles that last a little more
than 100,000 years, with smaller cycles of different duration superimposed. The IPCC notes that the ice age cycles were driven by
Milankovitch Cycles, with changes in carbon dioxide following temperature changes with a lag of several hundred years. This is to be
expected as warm periods lead to increased plant growth, and expansion of vegetation increases carbon dioxide production.
Furthermore, carbon dioxide is more soluble in cold water than in warm water, so there will be less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
during an ice age because more is absorbed in the oceans. The higher dust levels are believed to be caused by cold, dry periods as
precipitation levels drop in colder climates. Source: NOAA.

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Although the changes are miniscule on an annual Sunspots occur in fairly regular cycles of about 11
basis, the Sun is gradually becoming hotter and years that reflect changing magnetic levels of the
brighter, and therefore sends marginally more Sun. The point in the cycle when the Sun’s
energy to the Earth each year. If this has any magnetic field is strongest coincides with the
impact on the Earth’s climate, it is only on an period of maximum sunspot activity, and is
extremely long-term basis. known as the solar maximum. Conversely, the
point when the magnetic field is weakest and
• Changes in Earth’s orbit: Earth’s annual orbit
sunspot activity is reduced is known as the solar
around the Sun does not follow precisely the
minimum.
same path each year. When the Earth is closer to
the Sun, more insolation is received than when This 11-year cycle is significant because more
the Earth is more distant. There have been radiation is emitted from the Sun during the time
several attempts to calculate the Earth’s around the solar maximum when sunspot
deviations from its regular pattern of orbits, activity is greatest. Research is still underway to
notably by the Serbian geophysicist and measure the magnitude of this variation, but a
astronomer Milutin Milanković (sometimes spelt general consensus suggests that the solar
Milankovitch). radiation emitted between the solar maximum
and solar minimum differs by about 0.2%.
In the 1920s, Milanković developed his theory
that a combination of changes in the Earth’s orbit
and the angle of tilt of its axis affected the world’s
climate over time. This impact on climate is
known as orbital forcing, and Milanković
calculated that each cycle of orbital changes
lasted about 21,000 years. Superimposed on that
21,000 year cycle is a longer cycle of changes in
the tilt of Earth’s axis that lasts 41,000 years.
Overall, the impact of orbital changes is believed
to be stronger than the axial tilt changes, but each
amplifies the other, resulting in an overall cycle of
a little over 100,000 years.

The combination of major orbital cycles with

4.12 Sunspots on the Sun’s surface in February 2013. The
minor axial tilt cycles superimposed upon them distance between the lower two sunspots is about the same as
are known as Milankovitch Cycles. Evidence for six times the diameter of the Earth.
Milankovitch Cycles and orbital forcing is seen in • Global dimming: Global dimming is a decrease
the regular cycle through which Earth seems to of insolation reaching the Earth’s surface. It is
experience ice ages, which seem to have followed the opposite of global brightening, which is an
large and small scale cycles superimposed upon increase in the amount of solar radiation reaching
each other (figure 4.11). the Earth’s surface. The most common cause of
• Sunspots and short solar cycles: Sunspots are global dimming is tiny particles that are
dark areas on the Sun’s outer layer that zones of suspended in the atmosphere which absorb and/
lower temperatures. They vary greatly size from or reflect radiation back into space. Global
about 15 kilometres up to about 150,000 dimming has two main effects on climate,
kilometres in diameter. They are not permanent causing a cooling of the Earth’s surface and a
features, but they occur for short periods of a few reduction of evaporation that leads in turn to a
days to a few months when magnetic distortions reduction of precipitation.
interfere with the normal convection flows within The two most common natural sources of
the Sun’s gases. They typically appear in pairs airborne particles are fires and volcanic
with each adjoining sunspot having the reverse eruptions. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, a
polarity of the other (one is positive while the volcano in Indonesia, was one of the largest in
other is negative).

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4.13 This minor eruption of White Island volcano in New 4.14 A general view of Lakagígar fissure in Iceland today. The
Zealand is sending ash, particles and gases into the line of craters to the right of the photo erupted for eight months
atmosphere, casting a shadow over the land beneath. Although in 1783-1784, spreading lava across most of the area in this
the airborne particles may be invisible to the human eye as they photo, and causing global dimming across the world. The scale
dissipate through the atmosphere, they continue to absorb and of the area can be seen by the buses and cars parked in the
reflect solar energy, causing global dimming. middle of the photo.
recorded history. The noise of the eruption was
Terrestrial albedo changes and
reported to have been heard 5,000 kilometres
away. The eruption poured sulphur gas and ash feedback loops
into the atmosphere, causing a volcanic winter
The Earth’s albedo is the proportion of insolation
for five years as average global temperatures fell
that is reflected by the surface of the Earth back into
by 1.2C˚. Written records from the time describe
space. Albedo can be measured, and as an
spectacular red sunsets around the world
example, a surface that reflects 35% of the radiation
following the eruption as airborne particles
it receives has an albedo of 0.35. Therefore, a
dispersed the afternoon sunlight. Although most
surface that has a high albedo such as snow or ice
volcanic eruptions are smaller than the Krakatoa
(0.40 to 0.85) reflects most the radiation it receives,
event, the cumulative effect of volcanic eruptions
absorbing only a small proportion. On the other
is significant, especially during periods when
hand, a surface with a low albedo such as dark soil
several eruptions occur in different parts of the
(0.05 to 0.15) or a dark roadway (0.05) absorbs
world.
almost all the incoming energy. Table 4.1 shows
It is speculated that global dimming may have typical albedo values for a variety of objects and
been a contributory factor in causing ice ages at surfaces.
various times in the planet’s history, as we know
from geological evidence that there have been
periods of intense volcanic activity. From written
records we know that the 23 kilometre long
Lakagígar fissure in Iceland erupted
continuously for an eight-month period during
1783 to 1784. The eruption was one of the largest
in recorded history, producing about 20 cubic
kilometres of lava and clouds of hydrofluoric acid
and sulphur dioxide that killed a quarter of
Iceland’s population and half the livestock. The
eruption led to global dimming with widespread
impacts, such as reduced rainfall in the Sahel
region of Sub-Saharan Africa, and prolonged,
4.15 Snow and ice have high rates of reflectivity, or albedo, as
abnormally cold winters in North America. shown by this area of snow over the Greenland ice cap.

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Feedback loops occur when the outputs of a
system circulate back and become inputs in a
succession of cause-and-effect cycles. The system is Albedo is reduced Darker surfaces revealed
said to ‘feed back’ into itself.

When a forcing agent triggers a warming or cooling

of the climate in an area, the albedo may change as
a consequence. For example, if the climate in an More solar radiation is
Polar ice melts
area cools, the surface cover of snow and ice might absorbed
expand to cover grassland or bare earth, and this
will increase the area’s albedo because snow and ice
are light-coloured and shiny. Conversely, if an area
warms up, the surface cover of snow and ice might Temperature rises
shrink, increasing the area’s albedo as bare earth is
revealed and grassland colonises the area.

Figure 4.16 shows how a change to the albedo can Forcing agent triggers a change in climate
trigger a chain reaction that leads to an ongoing
feedback loop. When the temperature of an area
near the poles rises and the albedo decreases, more
Temperature falls
insolation is absorbed by the ground which causes
the temperature to rise further as the air above the
Table 4.1
Typical albedo values for short-wave radiation More solar radiation is
Polar ice expands
reflected
Surface Typical albedo

Fresh snow 0.80 to 0.90

Old snow 0.40 to 0.80

Light shiny surfaces
Albedo rises
Sea and glacial ice 0.30 to 0.50 spread
Light dry sands 0.35 to 0.50

Bare dark soil 0.05 to 0.15 4.16 Albedo feedback loops that arise in high latitudes (towards
Field crops 0.10 to 0.20 the poles) when a change in climate is triggered by a forcing
agent.
Dry concrete 0.15 to 0.30

Bitumin roads 0.05 to 0.10 warmer ground is also heated. On the other hand,
Clouds 0.60 to 0.90
if a forcing agent triggers the cooling of an area
near the poles, the albedo rises as the ice caps
Desert lands 0.25 to 0.30
expand. Thus, more radiation is reflected back into
Savanna grasslands, wet season 0.15 to 0.20 space, the ground absorbs less radiative energy
Savanna grasslands, dry season 0.25 to 0.30 causing the air temperature to drop further, leading
Temperate grasslands 0.10 to 0.20 to another cycle, and then another, and so on. This
is known as an amplifying feedback loop because
Temperate forests 0.10 to 0.20
the repeated looping increases and perpetuates the
Tropical forests 0.05 to 0.15
impact of the initial trigger.
Coniferous forests 0.10 to 0.15
Feedback loops reinforce changes in the albedo in
Tundra 00.15 to 0.20
other parts of the world that are away from the
Oceans (with sun near horizon) approx. 0.40
polar ice caps and glacial areas. For example, in
Oceans (with sun nearly overhead) approx. 0.05 areas that are experiencing the process of
Note short-wave radiation is defined as less than 4 µm (microns or desertification, such as the Sahel region of Africa,
micrometres), which includes infrared radiation, visible light, unltra-
violet, x-rays and gamma rays. the drying of the climate expands the surface cover

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of sand or bare earth as vegetation dies. Sand and Greenhouse gas release and
bare earth (that is usually light in colour in arid
areas where the soil contains very little humus) feedback loops
have a higher albedo than the vegetation that has
Greenhouse gases are gaseous compounds in the
died, leading to greater reflection of insolation
atmosphere that trap heat by absorbing infrared
which can further exacerbate the aridity of an area.
radiation. Some greenhouse gases are more
Once again, once the change has been triggered, a
effective than others in trapping heat, and those
feedback loop perpetuates the spiral of climate
that absorb heat efficiently are major contributors to
change.
the greenhouse effect. When greenhouse gases
The dying back of forest areas, whether caused by release the heat they have retained for a while,
human action through deforestation or natural some it is counter-radiated back to the Earth’s
processes, usually increases the albedo of an area as surface, amplifying the heating impact of the initial
forests absorb most of the insolation in the area. insolation. If greenhouse gases absorb more heat
Once the albedo increases, reflected radiation than they lose, the atmosphere warms up. When
usually rises (depending on the state of the the atmosphere warms consistently for a prolonged
underlying soil and the vegetation that replaces the period over an extensive area such as a continent or
forest), leading to further dieback of the forests and the entire planet, global warming is said to occur.
the start of a feedback loop.
Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the
atmosphere, which is why the planet has had a
natural greenhouse effect for as long as the
atmosphere has existed. The most significant
naturally occurring greenhouse gases are carbon
dioxide, methane, water vapour, ozone and nitrous
oxide. Human actions can influence the
concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere,
which is why it is believed humans play a part in
causing climate change. Human-induced climate
change is termed anthropogenic climate change.
One facet of anthropogenic climate change is the
production of synthetic greenhouse gases such as
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrofluorocar-
4.17 This area near Jemaluang in Johore, Malaysia, has had its bons (HFCs). In this section, the emphasis will be
natural forest cover cleared to make way for an oil palm on naturally occurring greenhouse gases.
plantation. The area’s albedo immediately rose as dark leaved
trees were replaced by light-coloured bare earth. Once oil The effectiveness of greenhouse gases to heat the
palms are planted, the albedo will become higher than it was atmosphere is measured by their global warming
under forest cover. Feedback loops may cause a change in the
potential (GWP). GWP is a relative measure that
area’s precipitation as greater reflectivity alters the pattern of
evaporation and atmospheric circulation in the area. compares the amount of heat trapped in a given
mass of gas to the amount of heat trapped in an
Many geographers believe that albedo feedback
equivalent mass of carbon dioxide. Therefore, the
loops were a significant factor in causing ice ages
GWP of carbon dioxide is always 1. Estimates of
and interglacial warmings throughout the Earth’s
GWPs of some of the more common greenhouse
history. They speculate that periods with intense
gases are shown in table 4.2.
volcanic activity could trigger a severe volcanic
winter that would start a long spiral of albedo Two main factors influence the GWP of a gas:
feedback loops. If the volcanic winter following the • the radiative efficiency of the gas, which is its
Krakatoa explosion had been slightly longer or a ability to absorb infrared radiation (i.e. heat);
little more intense, some climate scientists speculate • the stability of the gas, which is how long it
that it may have been enough to trigger a small ice remains in the atmosphere before decaying or
age due to amplifying feedback loops. being converted into another substance.

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Table 4.2 Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the second most
Global Warming Potential (GWP) significant greenhouse gas by volume in the
of major greenhouse gases atmosphere. Its typical concentration is about
0.04% (400ppm – parts per million); before global
GWP time horizon
Lifetime industrialisation began a few hundred years ago,
Gas
(years)
20 years 100 years the typical concentration was about 290ppm.
Carbon dioxide is essential to life because plants
Carbon dioxide 1 1 5 - 20 depend upon it for photosynthesis, which converts
carbon dioxide into chemical compounds that build
Methane 86 34 12
up the plant’s tissues and supporting structures, as
HFC_134a well as releasing oxygen into the atmosphere as a
3,790 1,550 13
(hydroflurocarbon)
by-product.
CFC-11 (chloroflurocarbon) 7,020 5,350 45
Carbon dioxide is produced naturally by volcanoes
Nitrogen dioxide 268 298 121 during eruptions, in hot springs and geysers in
geothermal areas, and it is liberated from trees and
Carbon tetraflouride 4,950 7,350 50,000 plants when they burn and from carbonate rocks
Figures for water vapour are explained in the text. Carbon dioxide and when they are dissolved by running water and
methane occur naturally in the environment, and can also be produced acidic rainfall. Human activities such as burning
by human actions. The other gases are entirely synthetic and do not
fossil fuels and cutting down forests can increase
occur naturally in the environment. Note that estimates of GWPs are
subject to change as research is continuing. The estimates shown are the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.
the latest available from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change), punlished in IPCC AR5 (p.714) in 2013.
A high GWP indicates that a gas has a large
capacity to absorb and retain heat as well as a long
atmospheric lifetime. It should be noted that
although water vapour is the most significant
greenhouse gas in terms of impact, with some
estimates saying it contributes about 95% of the
Earth’s greenhouse effect, its GWP cannot be
calculated because the methodology of GWP
assumes that a gas will decay in the atmosphere,
which water vapour does not so. Furthermore, the
amount of water vapour in the atmosphere
fluctuates so much with daily and seasonal
4.18 Hot springs and geysers are a natural source of
temperature changes that an average figure would
atmospheric carbon dioxide. These examples are at Dachnye, a
be meaningless. geothermal area on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Far East of
Russia.
Water vapour (H2O) is the most significant
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere by volume, and Although we know a great deal about the sources
it is by far the largest contributor to the natural that add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere,
greenhouse effect. Water vapour is the gaseous predicting future concentrations is more difficult
form of water, and it forms when liquid water because not all the carbon dioxide emitted into the
evaporates or is boiled, and when ice is sublimated atmosphere remains there. A complex system
(changed directly from a solid to a gas). Like other known as the carbon cycle moves carbon through
gases, water vapour mixes freely through the the environment. Plants are an important
atmosphere, but unlike other gases, its component of the carbon cycle as they absorb
concentration varies greatly from day to day and carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere.
from place to place. Water vapour usually makes However, when plants die, the organisms that
up less than 1% of the atmosphere, but it can be as decompose the plant tissue release carbon dioxide
high as 4% in warm, moist, humid conditions. into the atmosphere.

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Although these processes are normally held in
balance, human actions have added greater
quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
than can be absorbed. However, as the
concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has
increased, conditions for the growth of plants have
improved, so trees, shrubs and grasses have
flourished in some areas. At present, forests are
growing more rapidly than they are being
destroyed in the northern hemisphere, and this
additional plant growth is helping to limit the
build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide. On the
other hand, tropical deforestation in the southern
hemisphere seems to be overwhelming the gains of
the northern hemisphere, so any additional plant
growth has not been sufficient to absorb the
additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This
is one of the key reasons that the atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide is continuing to
increase.

4.20 The world’s oceans (seen here in Fiji) are a huge store of
carbon dioxide.
Ocean currents then carry the carbon dioxide
through a vast network of slow-moving global
4.19 The world’s tropical rainforests represent a vast store of currents that act like a huge conveyor belt. As the
carbon, as like all plants, they absorb carbon dioxide from the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases,
atmosphere in order to photosynthesise. When vegetation dies
the oceans take in more carbon dioxide than they
or is burnt, carbon dioxide is released back into the atmosphere.
This example is in Daintree Rainforest on the coast of release. It is believed that the oceans are currently
Queensland, north-eastern Australia. acting as a carbon sink, absorbing and storing
additional carbon dioxide at great depths, and if
Another important element of the carbon cycle is this were not occurring, levels of atmospheric
the world’s oceans. Carbon dioxide is absorbed carbon dioxide would be even higher and global
from the atmosphere by floating microscopic plant temperatures would be warmer.
life called phytoplankton that live in the surface
layer of the ocean. Once absorbed, carbon dioxide Methane (CH4) is another significant greenhouse
gets mixed into the ocean water by turbulent gas. It is major component (87% by volume) of
surface waves. When phytoplankton die, they sink natural gas, and as such, it occurs naturally and
to the floor of the ocean where they decompose and abundantly underground and beneath the ocean
release carbon dioxide, thus enriching ocean waters floor. Methane is created in the upper level of the
at depth. Earth’s surface by microorganisms in the process of
methanogenesis, and then released into the
atmosphere.

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Methane passes into the atmosphere when plant
and animal remains decompose, when animals emit
wind from their anus, when manure decomposes,
and it is released from swamps, peat bogs, landfill
tips and rice padis. An increasing concern is that
bogs that have been trapped in permafrost for
centuries may release increasing quantities of
methane as permafrost melts due to increasing
global temperatures. This would initiate a
feedback loop as more atmospheric methane leads
to higher temperatures, which lead to more melting
of permafrost, which releases more methane, and so
on.
4.21 Wetlands are a significant source of atmospheric methane,
Under natural conditions, the level of methane in which is released when organic matter decomposes. This
the atmosphere is kept in check because it reacts swamp is in the Abuko Nature Reserve in Gambia.
with other gases, notably water vapour and
Nitrous oxides (NOx), of which nitrogen dioxide
hydroxyl radicals, causing its conversion into
(NO2) presents the greatest threat, are greenhouse
carbon dioxide and water. Atmospheric methane
gases that occur naturally in trace amounts,
typically has a life of about 12 years. Nonetheless,
although much of the NO2 in our atmosphere today
as table 4.2 shows, methane has 86 times greater
is produced by humans. Naturally occurring
Global Warming Potential than carbon dioxide over nitrogen oxides enter the atmosphere from volcanic
a period of 20 years. Methane’s GWP is 34 times eruptions, lightning, respiration of bacteria and
greater GWP than CO2 over a period of 100 years, a from the stratosphere. Human-sourced nitrogen
lower figure than the 20 year number because of dioxide is produced by burning fossil fuels in
methane’s relatively short atmospheric lifetime. internal combustion engines, in coal-fired power

Positive feedback

Longwave Longwave
absorbtion of absorbtion by
water vapour clouds

CH4 T SH CL P
+ warming

cooling

-
Time Time Time Time Time

Atmospheric Global
Planetary Specific humidity Global cloud
methane precipitation
temperature (˚C) (g/kg) cover (%)
(ppm) (mm/yr)

Shortwave
Increased snow
reflection from
and ice cover
clouds

Negative feedback
4.22 Methane-initiated positive and negative feedback loops. The feedback loops form a coupled system of surface temperature
and cloud cover that is triggered by a change in atmospheric methane concentration. Source: after Strahler.

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stations, in cigarette smoking, and in burning vapour, but they also initiate a negative feedback
kerosene-powered stoves and heaters. loop because clouds reflect insolation back into
space before it can reach the surface. Increased
In a similar way that feedback loops amplify
precipitation would trigger a negative feedback
changes in albedo, changes in the concentration of
loop if more precipitation fell as snow and
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can become
produced more ice cover because snow and ice
amplified through feedback loops. Feedback loops
have a high albedo, and more insolation would
can be positive or negative, as shown in figure 4.22,
therefore be reflected back to space.
which shows the feedback loops that arise from an
increase in atmospheric methane. Positive If the negative feedback exceeds the positive
feedback loops reinforce methane’s capacity to feedback, the greenhouse effect will be minimised
raise temperatures by retaining heat, thus causing and temperatures will remain fairly stable. On the
further increases in temperatures. Thus, positive other hand, if positive feedback exceeds negative
feedback loops amplify the increasing feedback, the rate at which temperatures rise will
temperatures initiated by the rise in methane accelerate, and a more dynamic, less stable
concentration. On the other hand, negative greenhouse effect will result.
feedback loops offset this trend, countering the
impact of methane and offsetting (or potentially QUESTION BANK 4C
reversing) the rise in temperatures. 1. With reference to figure 4.9, and quoting specific dates
where possible, provide evidence that the Earth’s climate
has always been changing.

2. What is meant by the term ‘radiative forcing’, and what is

the difference between ‘positive forcing’ and ‘negative
forcing’?

3. What is meant by the term ‘forcing agent’, and what is the

difference between an ‘external forcing agent’ and an
‘internal forcing agent’?

4. Where is heat (infrared radiation) on the electromagnetic

spectrum compared with visible light?

5. What is the ‘solar constant’?

6. List the reasons that solar variability occurs.

4.23 One consequence of rising methane concentration in the
atmosphere is an increase in cloud cover. Cloud cover triggers 7. What has been, and what will be, the impact of solar
both positive and negative feedback loops, as explained in evolution on the solar constant?
figure 4.22. This cloud bank has formed over the coastal strip of
8. Why do changes in the Earth’s orbit cause changes to
northern Chile near Iquique.
insolation?
In the example shown in figure 4.22, increased
9. What are Milankovitch Cycles?
levels of methane (and perhaps other greenhouse
gases) increase temperatures at the ground surface 10. With reference to figure 4.11, describe and account for the
by enhancing the natural greenhouse effect. This cycle of ice ages that the planet has experienced over the
increase in temperatures leads to an increase in past 400,000 years or so.
evaporation, producing more water vapour in the 11. What are sunspots, and how do they affect the earth’s
atmosphere, more cloud cover and increased climate?
precipitation. As water vapour is also a greenhouse
12. What is global dimming, and what is the role of volcanic
gas, the increase in humidity triggers a positive
eruptions in causing it?
feedback loop that amplifies the impact of the rise
in methane concentration. Increased cloud cover 13. Rank the surfaces shown in table 4.1 in ascending order of
their maximum albedo values, and then categorise them
also cover triggers a positive feedback loop because
into three groups: low albedo, medium albedo and high
clouds contain a high concentration of water
albedo.

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14. Explain how a change in climate could trigger a feedback
loop that works through changes to albedo if it occurs near The enhanced
the North Pole or South Pole. Explain why this same
feedback loop would be found in a high mountainous area.
greenhouse effect
15. What is meant by the term ‘amplifying feedback loop’? The enhanced greenhouse effect is the warming
Provide an example of an amplifying feedback loop that that occurs due to additional heat being retained by
does not rely on an increased surface area of snow or ice. the atmosphere as a result of increases in
greenhouse gases that humans have released.
16. What is meant by the term ‘greenhouse gas’? What is the
relationship between greenhouse gases and global
Expressed in another way, the enhanced
warming? greenhouse effect is anthropogenic global warming.

17. List the most significant greenhouse gases that occur The topic of human-induced climate change is
naturally in descending order of their significance. Justify controversial in some circles, and therefore there is
your ranking. an abundance of misleading information, and some
18. What does the Global Warming Potential (GWP) measure?
naïve misunderstandings, in the media and on
What are the two main factors that influence the GWP of a internet sites that are advocating particular
gas? viewpoints. Therefore, the sources of information
relating to climate change should always be
19. What are the sources of naturally occurring atmospheric
checked, especially when it seems to be advocating
methane?
a particular viewpoint that appears unbalanced.
20. With reference to figure 4.22, write approximately 500 Information about anthropogenic climate change
words to describe the positive and negative feedback loops should also be checked carefully for biases,
that can arise when the proportion of atmospheric methane especially selection bias which occurs when only
rises.

1.4

1.2
Global temperature anomaly from pre-industrial era (C˚)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

4.24 Changes in average global temperatures from 1880 to 2019, using the mean for the period 1880 to 1899 as base.
Source: World Meteorological Organisation drawing data from NOAA, NASA and the UK Met office.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
evidence that supports a particular position is changes or methane gas release. As the rise in
presented or examined. temperatures broadly coincides with the period in
which global industrial output has expanded
The trend of global temperatures shown in figure
exponentially and anthropogenic greenhouse gas
4.24 is based on information produced by the
emissions have soared, most geographers conclude
United Nations’ World Meteorological
that human actions have been (and continue to be)
Organisation, synthesising three global datasets
a substantial component of the causes of the
that are continuously gathered by the three main
warming that have been observed and measured.
scientific organisations that monitor global
climates. These organisations are the US National The enhanced greenhouse effect occurs because of a
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the combination of several causes, the most significant
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric of which are the following:
Administration (NOAA), and the joint operation of
• Fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, oil and
the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic
natural gas all contain carbon. When fossil fuels
Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
are burnt to produce energy in power stations, in
Figure 4.24 shows the changes in average global motor vehicle engines, to produce heat and so on,
temperatures compared with the pre-industrial era carbon dioxide is released. Industrialisation
before humans began large-scale burning of fossil
fuels, thus producing greenhouse gases on a
massive scale. The graph uses the average
temperatures during the period 1880 to 1899 as its
pre-industrial base.

It can be seen that during and after World War I

(1914-1918), global temperatures rose fairly steadily,
with a brief short-term fall in the late 1940s and
some short bursts of slower increases, especially in
the mid-1970s due to the Oil Crisis and in the
mid-1980s due to a world-wide economic slow-
down. In more recent years (since 2010), the trend
in average global temperatures has been
consistently upwards.
4.26 A truck that is being used as a bus to transport commuters
The changes in global temperatures shown in figure in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, emits clouds of exhaust fumes
into the atmosphere. The main greenhouse gas in the exhaust
4.24 cannot be explained by natural forcing agents
fumes is carbon dioxide, but other greenhouse gases include
such as solar radiation variations, terrestrial albedo nitrous oxides and sulphur dioxide.

4.25 Coal-fired power stations, such as this facility in 4.27 Logs from felled trees are burnt in Wyoming, USA,
Pyongyang, North Korea, emit significant quantities of carbon releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
dioxide and particulates into the atmosphere.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change

4.28 The world’s rice padis produce between 50 and 100 4.29 The world’s cattle produce about 150 million tonnes of
million tonnes of methane gas each year. This flooded padi is methane gas annually as their stomachs ruminate the grain or
being planted with a new rice crop near Ubud, Bali, Indonesia. grass they have eaten. This causes flatulence that produces
methane, which enters the atmosphere through the animals’
began on a large scale in the mid-1800s, and since hindquarters. These cattle are waiting to be sold in a saleyard
that time, the rate of burning fossil fuels has near Serrekunda, Gambia.
increased exponentially. Globally, burning fossil season when the rice padis are flooded.
fuel now produces almost 40 billion tonnes of Greenhouse Gas Online estimates that between 50
carbon dioxide annually according to the journal and 100 million tonnes of methane gas are
Nature Climate Change, which is the equivalent of produced annually in rice padis. In cattle
more than a million kilograms of carbon dioxide raising, methane gas is produced by bacteria in
every second. About half these emissions are the animals’ stomachs as a by-product of
absorbed by plants and the oceans, but the other digesting grass or grain. Cattle are distinctive in
half remains in the atmosphere, adding to the producing so much gas; other animals such as
volume of greenhouse gases. kangaroos do not flatulate at all. Cattle that are
fed with grain produce more methane gas than
• When trees are felled or burnt, as happens on a
grass-fed cattle. The methane is expelled through
large scale when deforestation occurs, or when
the animals’ rear ends at an average rate of 70 to
dead vegetation decays, carbon dioxide is
120 kilograms of methane per cow or bull per
released into the atmosphere. The impact of
annum. According to FAO estimates, cattle
deforestation in increasing atmospheric
produce about 150 million tonnes of methane gas
greenhouse gases is amplified because fewer trees
globally each year.
means that less carbon dioxide will be absorbed
from the atmosphere for photosynthesis. The • Although 62% of nitrous oxides, such as nitrogen
Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that dioxide, are produced naturally, human activities
deforestation adds about 3.0 billion tonnes of such as fertilising farmlands with nitrogen-
carbon dioxide to the atmosphere annually. based fertilisers, burning fossil fuels and
powering motor vehicle engines contribute 38%
• Economic activities such as farming, cattle
of emissions.
raising, mining and forestry produce methane
gas, which is a far more potent greenhouse gas • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
than carbon dioxide because its GWP is much hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetic gases
greater. The two largest sources of methane gas that were invented in the 1920s to use as coolants
from economic activities are rice farming and in air conditioning, refrigerators, plastic foam and
cattle raising. In rice farming, methane gas forms propellants in aerosol sprays. They have very
in waterlogged soils as a by-product of anaerobic high GWPs, and therefore even small quantities
(oxygen-starved) decomposition of organic of these gases in the atmosphere have a major
matter. Methane gas bubbles to the surface and impact in boosting the enhanced greenhouse
escapes into the atmosphere during the growing effect.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
Table 4.3 Greenhouse gas emissions vary widely from
Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions country to country. Understandably, countries with
(kilotonnes of CO2 equivalent) more people and larger economies produce more
Country
kt of CO2
Country
kt of CO2 greenhouse gas emissions than smaller countries.
equivalent equivalent This is shown by the selection of countries listed in
China 12,454,711 Sudan 491,982 table 4.3. The statistics in table 4.3 correlate with
USA 6,383,841 Argentina 380,295 total population size for each country, although the
India 3,002,895 Malaysia 279,098 level of industrialisation also has a significant
Brazil 2,989,418 Netherlands 195,874 bearing. The statistics provide a measure of each
country’s absolute contribution to greenhouse gas
Russia 2,803,398 North korea 109,895
emissions, but in order to see how efficiently, or
Japan 1,478,859 Qatar 103,155
cleanly, a country’s industries are operating, it is
Canada 1,027,064 Sweden 65,768
preferable to look at relative statistics.
Germany 951,717 Hong Kong 58,634
Figure 4.30 shows the world distribution of
Congo, DR 802,271 Cuba 52,418
greenhouse gas emissions per capita, which is a
Indonesia 780,551 Burkina Faso 43,910
relative measure that is useful for comparing
Australia 761,686 Sri Lanka 30,452 countries fairly. Countries with low greenhouse
South Korea 668,990 Mongolia 25,944 emissions per capita tend to be poorer countries
Mexico 663,425 Niger 11,461 with low levels of industrialisation in South Asia,
Bolivia 621,727 Liberia 2,834 Sub-Saharan Africa and north-western South
UK 585,780 Macau 1,674 America. At the opposite end of the spectrum,
countries with high outputs of greenhouse gases
Iran 551,144 Timor-Leste 263
per capita are sparsely settled countries with high
Saudi Arabia 549,112 Greenland 263
standards of living in either hot and dry or cold and
Myanmar 528,416 Kiribati 58
wet climates (such as Australia and Canada), some
C. African Rep. 515,134 Nauru 5 Middle Eastern oil producing countries where
France 499,147 Palau 1 hydrocarbon fuels are so cheap there is little
All figures relate to 2012. The left column shows the world’s top 20 financial incentive to conserve them, and in some
greenhouse gas producers in descending order. The right column
industrialised countries such as the United States
shows a representative selection of other countries. Source: World
Bank, drawing on data from European Commission, Joint Research and Russia where factories use old technology that
Centre ( JRC )/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( PBL ) have become comparatively inefficient.
and Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research ( EDGAR ),
EDGARv4.2 FT2012: edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Emissions per
capita in
tonnes of CO2
equivalent

30+

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5-9

0-4

4.30 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions per capita, 2012. Source: drawn from World Bank data.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
20
t ho us an ds o f t o nne s o f C O 2 e qui val ent p er c ap i t a

18

16

14

12

10

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World High Income Countries Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries
4.31 Global and macroeconomic regional trends of greenhouse gas emissions per capita, 1970 to 2012. Source: calculated from World
Bank data.

Figure 4.31 shows that in general, high-income when national wealth (measured by Gross
countries produce more greenhouse gas emissions Domestic Product) and carbon dioxide emissions
per person than the world average, while low- are compared. Figure 4.34 shows there is a positive
income countries produce greenhouse emissions relationship between economic development and
per capita that are broadly similar to the world carbon dioxide emissions. This is a two-way cause-
average. It is the middle-income countries that and-effect relationship as economic development
produce lower greenhouse gas emissions per capita has historically produced more CO2 emissions,
than the world average. This graph also shows that while at the same time, the industries that have
on a per capita basis, greenhouse emissions have produced the CO2 emissions have stimulated
neither risen nor declined substantially since 1970. economic development. This relationship is usually
only broken when (and if) governments intervene
The relationship between economic development
to impose pollution controls, as reducing pollutants
and greenhouse gas emissions becomes clearer
often carries financial costs for polluting industries.

4.32 A major source of greenhouse gas emissions in low 4.33 A major source of greenhouse gas emissions in high
income countries is burning timber for fuelwood, as seen here in income countries is exhaust fumes from private motor vehicles
Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. and freight trucks, as seen here in Houston, Texas, USA.

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 CO2 emissions per capita, thousands of tonnes of CO2 per capita, logarithmic scale Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change

10

0.1

1 10 100
Gross Domestic Product (PPP), US$ millions, logarithmic scale

4.34 The relationship between national wealth (measured by Gross Domestic Product) and greenhouse gas emissions (using carbon
dioxide emissions as an indicator). Both variables are shown on logarithmic scales. Source: UNEP/GRID Europe.

Globalisation accelerates and amplifies the bring benefits such as opening up new markets,
enhanced greenhouse effect. Globalisation is the reducing the cost of certain goods to consumers and
integration of national economies, businesses and improving economic efficiency, it can also bring
trade on a world-wide scale. Although it is said to problems, one of which is amplifying the enhanced
greenhouse effect.

One way that globalisation adds to the enhanced

greenhouse effect is through externalities.
Externalities are the consequences of economic
activities that affect other parties without being
reflected in market prices. Air pollution from a
factory is an example of an externality because it
affects people in surrounding areas through poor
health or clean-up costs without imposing a
financial cost on the polluting factory’s operator.

The costs of externalities often rise as a result of

globalisation because of the additional greenhouse
gases produced when goods are transported
4.35 Air pollution from power stations, such as the DTE power internationally over long distances compared with
station on the shoreline of Lake Erie near Detroit, Michigan,
production closer to the point of consumption. An
USA, is an example of a significant externality.

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 Chapter 4 - Causes of global climate change
example of this would be a US-based technology Globalised trade has led to such a rapid rate of
company that has been attracted to produce economic growth in countries such as China and
consumer electronics in a country with weak India that it is sometimes referred to as hyper-
environmental standards and regulations, low development. Hyper-development requires
taxation rates or low labour costs such as Mexico exponential growth in fuel and power
or China. The company saves the cost of cleaning consumption, which contributes to the enhanced
up its pollution or paying for labour, but does not greenhouse effect. One attempt to dampen this
have to pay the environmental costs that arise from impact is the imposition of international carbon
the additional transportation needed to bring its caps and trading schemes that place an economic
products to large markets in high-income countries. cost on emissions, thus transforming an externality
into a cost of production. Despite considerable
Currently, ocean-going ships consume about 4% of
negotiations, a global consensus has not been
the world’s fossil fuels each year, although this
achieved on emissions trading schemes.
could be reduced if ships moved more slowly (but
therefore less productively) to conserve fuel. The OECD, which is an organisation that supports
Shipping produces about 4% of the world’s international trade and globalisation, studied the
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions each year impact of globalisation and trade on greenhouse
and about 9% of the annual anthropogenic nitrous gas emissions by surveying 63 countries. The study
oxide emissions, mostly along major shipping lanes concluded that a 1% increase in trade results in a
in the northern hemisphere. 0.58% increase in carbon dioxide emissions for the
average country. Other studies have also found
that openness to globalisation and international
trade raises carbon dioxide emissions, but noted
that the negative impact disappears when
allowances are made for extraneous factors such as
different income levels, and so on. Unlike other
processes that produce greenhouse gas emissions,
such as power generation, there are no real
substitutes for fossil fuels that are used for
transport, whether by ship, air, rail or road.

QUESTION BANK 4D
1. What is the difference between the natural greenhouse effect
4.36 Increased international shipping resulting from growing and the enhanced greenhouse effect?
trade and globalisation contributes significantly to the enhanced
2. Describe and account for the trend shown in figure 4.24.
greenhouse effect. This container vessel is waiting to pass
through the Panama Canal at Miraflores, Panama. 3. List and briefly describe the ways that human actions
The impact of externalities is reinforced by the contribute to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
implications of expanded trade. Trade
4. Using the GWP factors in table 4.2, calculate the CO2
liberalisation policies under globalisation usually equivalent of the world’s annual methane production from
lead to a reduction or an elimination of tariffs rice farming and livestock production.
(import taxes), which in turn reduces the price of
5. Describe and account for the broad world pattern of
imported goods into a country. This tends to boost
anthropogenic greenhouse emissions shown in figure 4.30.
manufacturing industries in developing countries
with low labour costs and weak environmental 6. Describe the pattern and trends shown in figure 4.31.
regulations while suppressing manufacturing in
7. Describe the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions
developed countries with higher labour costs and and economic development (or national wealth) shown in
tighter environmental regulations. At a global figure 4.34.
scale, this transition increases the output of
8. How do globalisation and trade contribute to the enhanced
greenhouse gases because pollutants are more
greenhouse effect?
likely to be treated as an externality in the countries
where manufacturing grows most rapidly.

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 Chapter
5 Consequences of
global climate change

5.1 The ice of the Lower Grindelwald Glacier (Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher) in Switzerland is still visible at the top of this photo. It has
retreated two kilometres since 1973, and thus used to cover these exposed, bare slopes that are now vulnerable to erosion.

ocean ridges to more than 300 kilometres beneath

Consequences of global some continental areas. In general, the lithosphere
climate change on the beneath the oceans is thinner and denser than the
lithosphere that makes up the continental crust.
hydrosphere, atmosphere
The hydrosphere is the Earth’s water, whether in
and biosphere solid, liquid or gaseous form, and whether fresh or
Geographers find it useful to classify the surface of saline. The water in the hydrosphere changes its
the planet into four main ‘spheres’ when state and moves around the planet through the
considering global patterns and processes: water cycle.

The lithosphere is the solid component of the The atmosphere is the gases layer surrounding the
earth’s surface, comprising the crust and the upper earth, and held to the Earth’s surface by gravity. It
mantle beneath it. The lithosphere varies in is difficult to state the thickness of the atmosphere
thickness from just a few kilometres along the mid- because it gets progressively thinner with altitude,

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
but up to an altitude of about 80 kilometres, the • meltwater and runoff;
proportion of the various gases (apart from water • water vapour from surface meltwater that
vapour) remain fairly constant. evaporates; and
• water vapour that sublimates directly from the
The biosphere comprises all the living things on
ice.
Earth regardless of whether they are located within
Zone of accumulation Zone of ablation
the lithosphere, the atmosphere or the hydrosphere.
Input as Evaporation
Water stored in ice and oceans, snowfall and
and changing sea levels sublimation

71% of the Earth’s surface is covered by water. Of

this water, 97% is contained in oceans as salt water,
and is therefore not usable for drinking or
irrigation. Of the remaining 3% that is freshwater,
only 0.3 % is found in rivers and lakes, the rest
being frozen. Mass
transport by
Although the area of surface water on the earth is ice flowage
large, the volume and mass of water is actually
quite small. Water may cover 71% of the Earth’s Melting and runoff
surface, but it makes up just 0.02% (or 1/4,400) of the
5.2 The movement of solid, liquid and gaseous water through a
planet’s mass. It is therefore easy to understand
glacier.
why water is regarded as a scarce resource in many
parts of the world, and why people become The upper zone of a glacier where more moisture is
concerned if water quality or water availability is added than lost is known as the zone of
threatened by global climate change. accumulation. The lower zone of a glacier where
more moisture is lost than added is known as the
As the Earth’s climate warms, some of the ice that is zone of ablation.
held in glaciers and the polar ice sheets melts. This
occurs on an annual basis every summer, causing Every summer, the zone of ablation expands and
glacial retreat and shrinking of Arctic and Antarctic migrates upwards as temperatures rise, and the
ice caps. In winter, when the temperatures cool zone of accumulation shrinks. This causes the
again, the glaciers and ice caps expand. However, glacier to retreat (become shorter) seasonally as the
if there is a sustained trend of rising temperatures, toe (lower end of the glacier) melts. When
summers and winters become warmer than temperatures in winter cool once again, the glacier
preceding years, and this will cause the magnitude
of annual summer retreats to exceed the magnitude
of the annual winter expansions. Over time, this
leads to shrinkage of both glaciers and ice caps.

Glaciers are slowly moving rivers of ice. They

form when snow accumulates and becomes
compacted to form ice. The ice is constrained by
the edges of a valley, forcing the mass of ice to flow
downhill through the valley, eroding the valley
sides as it does so.

Glaciers can be thought of as systems, with inputs

of ice and gravitational potential energy at their
source, which flow though the system and exit as 5.3 This glacier has retreated, and the valley it once filled is
outputs in three forms: occupied by some lakes that are fed by underground seepage
and sediments (called moraine) that were deposited by the
melting ice.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
25% of their surface area. Glacial retreat is also
occurring in glaciers in such geographically
dispersed areas as central Asia, the Rocky
Mountains of North America, the Andes Mountains
of South America, the Himalayas of Asia and the
isolated peak of Mount Kilimanjaro in Kenya,
Africa.

Research is still underway to ascertain the relative

impact of rising temperatures and declining

5.4 A close view of meltwater from the end of a small retreating

glacier near Avachinsky Volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula in
Russia’s far east.

5.5 The Athabasca Glacier in the Rocky Mountains of Canada

has retreated about half a kilometre in the last half century,
leaving behind extensive deposits of moraine that can be seen
in the foreground. 5.6 The Teton Glacier in Wyoming, USA, has been retreating
steadily for most of the past century.
grows. A glacier that advances and retreats the
same amount year after year is said to be in a
steady state, also known as dynamic equilibrium.

If a glacier is located in an area where climate

change is causing temperatures to rise or
precipitation to decline, the zone of accumulation
will become starved of moisture input and the zone
of ablation will become more active. Glacial retreat
is thus a consequence of global warming.

There is widespread evidence that many glaciers in

different parts of the world are retreating, and this
is often cited as evidence that global warming is
occurring. In the period since 1850, glaciers in
Europe have lost an average of 30% to 40% of their
surface area and their volume of ice. Over the past 5.7 The Teton Glacier in Wyoming, USA, today. The pile of
century, glaciers in New Zealand have lost about rocks and gravel is moraine that was deposited by the glacier as
it retreated.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
precipitation in each area, and the extent to which
human actions have contributed to the changes. A
study by Marzeion, Cogley, Richter and Parkes that
was published in the respected academic journal
Science in August 2014 found that about 75% of the
global loss of glaciers between 1851 and 2010 was
due to natural (non-human) factors. However,
they also found that the balance between natural
and anthropogenic factors has shifted in recent
years, and 69% of global glacier loss in the period
1991 to 2010 was due to anthropogenic climate
change.

It is estimated that the retreat of glaciers in

5.9 Looking down on the toe of the Skaftafellsjökullglacier in
mountain areas between 1900 and 2000 caused sea
south-east Iceland. The retreating toe of the glacier can be
levels to rise between 0.2 to 0.4mm/year, which is seen at the left and centre of the photo, where the ice melts to
between 10% and 20% of the sea level rises that form ponds that empty into the glacial outwash stream that flows
were observed and recorded. into the sea in the background. This glacier has retreated about
two kilometres in the past century; in 1900 the glacier reached a
At a smaller scale, glacial retreat leads to changes in road that is so distant it cannot easily be seen.
local climates. When a glacier retreats, there is an
initial increase in the flow of meltwater streams
from the glacier, but as time goes on, the discharge
of these streams will decline as the glacier’s supply
of ice is diminished, leading to less evaporation of
water vapour and a consequent decline in
precipitation. When a glacier retreats, it exposes
bare rock and soils that are usually slow to become
colonised by vegetation in cold, alpine climates.
These bare slopes are vulnerable to erosion, rock
falls and landslides, especially if the mountain is in
an earthquake-prone region (as is the case for many
mountainous areas). Many glacial areas are
attractions for tourists, and as glaciers melt, such
5.10 Reeves Glacier, a 20 kilometre wide ice stream flowing
from the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet towards the Ross Sea.

areas become less attractive and vulnerable to

economic decline.

The world’s largest mass of ice is the Antarctic ice

sheet, which contains about 90% of the world’s ice.
If this ice sheet were to melt entirely, average sea
levels around the world would rise by about 40
metres. Most of the remaining 10% of the world’s
ice is held in the Greenland ice cap, and if this were
to melt, sea levels would rise even further by an
additional 7 metres.

Barring a major catastrophe of cataclysmic

proportions, it is extremely unlikely that these ice
5.8 The slopes beside this small glacier have been left bare
and exposed as the ice has melted, making the slope sheets would ever melt entirely. While global
vulnerable to erosion. This small glacier is near Koryaksky warming accelerates the melting and thinning of
Volcano in Russia’s far east. glacial and polar ice at their margins, it also leads to

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
increased precipitation from warmer air over the ice side is being balanced by extra accumulation of
sheets, and this increases the thickness of the ice new ice and snow.
sheets. Therefore, while global warming causes
Researchers are more concerned about the impact
shrinkage in the surface area of ice sheets, it also
of global warming on the huge Antarctic ice sheet.
leads to a thickening of ice sheets at their cores.
Much of the Antarctic ice sheet rests on a base of
Measurements of the Greenland ice sheet using bedrock that is well below sea level. Although the
laser beams have shown that the volume of the ice core of the West Antarctic ice sheet has no sea water
sheet is being reduced by 8 to 10 cubic kilometres beneath it, it is joined to several ice shelves (the
per year as a result of thinning at the margins. Ross, Ronne and Filchner ice shelves) that do have
Most of this thinning is occurring on the eastern sea water beneath them. This combination makes
side of Greenland, whereas melting on the western the West Antarctic ice sheet unstable because any

30˚W 0˚ 30˚E 50˚S

0 1,000
Kilometres Antarctic Circle

60˚S

60˚W 60˚E

70˚S

Filchner
Ice Shelf 80˚S
Ronne
Ice Shelf

South Pole
90˚W 90˚E
West
Antarctic
Ice Sheet East
Antarctic
Ross Ice Ice Sheet
Shelf

Ice sheet, base above sea level

120˚W 120˚E
Ice shelf, base below sea level

Ice sheet, base below sea level

Land above ice sheet

150˚W 180˚ 150˚E

5.11 Map of Antarctica, showing the location of ice sheets and ice shelves.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change

5.12 Icebergs collect in Jökilsárlón, Iceland, after breaking away from the ice sheet and Breiđamerkurjökull glacier, both visible in the
background. Global warming increases the rate of iceberg production as ice sheets and glaciers become thinner and more fragile.

melting of the ice shelves reduces frictional the last ice age 11,000 years ago has caused melting
pressure, allowing sea water to penetrate the of Antarctic sheet, making it thinner. As the ice
foundation of the ice sheet. If that were to happen sheet has thinned, the cold temperatures of the
extensively, the core of the West Antarctic sheet polar atmosphere can penetrate to greater depths of
would be forced upwards, leading to rapid melting ice, causing the bottom layer of the ice streams to
and thinning. Should this happen, some or all of freeze, slowing their flow. Anthropogenic global
the ice sheet would become a floating ice shelf, and warming may be hastening this trend, further
the additional volume of floating ice could cause slowing the ice streams.
sea levels to rise by as much as six metres globally.
As a result of the ice sheet thinning, the ice streams
The Western Antarctic ice sheet has several ice slowing and the ice shelves retreating, the Western
streams flowing across its surface. An ice stream is Antarctic ice sheet is becoming less stable,
a type of glacier that flows across an ice sheet at a increasing the threat of large-scale rises in sea level.
much faster rate than the underlying ice sheet As a warning of these possible changes, the ice
moves. They are large, up to 50 kilometres wide, 2 shelves are becoming thinner and fracturing more
kilometres thick and hundreds of kilometres long, easily, causing huge icebergs to break away and
moving at a speed of about a kilometre each year. drift into warmer areas of ocean where they melt.
It is believed that geothermal activity beneath the Similarly, iceberg production in Greenland is
ice sheet provides enough heat to melt the ice at the
base of the ice stream, creating a liquid layer that
lubricates the movement of the ice. These ice
streams provide the main supply of ice to refresh
the Ross, Ronne and Filchner ice shelves.

The ice streams are critically important to

maintaining the stability of the Western Antarctic
ice sheet. If the ice streams were to slow down, the
ice shelves would retreat, destabilising the ice
sheet, leading to a catastrophic rise in sea levels
around the world.

Measurements of the ice streams suggest that they

are becoming thicker and flowing more slowly. The
5.13 Hundreds of icebergs float in Narsaq Sound past the town
reason for this change is that the natural global of Narsaq in south-western Greenland. The icebergs have
warming that has been underway since the end of broken away from Eqalorutsit Kangilliit Sermiat, one of the most
productive ice streams flowing across the Greenland ice sheet.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
Rises in sea level due to global warming result
mostly from the thermal expansion of ocean water.
When the temperature of water rises, it expands,
and it is believed that recorded rises in sea level
have resulted more from thermal expansion of the
ocean’s water than from melting ice.

When sea levels rise, much of the damage occurs to

coastal communities because of aggravated erosion
by storm waves rather than from simple flooding.
Rising sea levels give waves that crash onto the
coastline during storms additional erosive energy.
The impact of sea level change is therefore likely to
affect the world’s poorest people most as they
5.14 The water level in Bikenikora, a small village on Tarawa cannot afford the expensive engineering solutions
Atoll in Kiribati, is getting steadily higher due to rising sea levels.
required to give protection against rising sea levels.
The flooded area in this photo was dry land until a few decades
ago, and residents must now protect their homes with locally Rising sea levels are a particular concern for
constructed sea walls. With an altitude of less than a metre
communities in low-lying areas such as the coastal
above sea level, these residents feel directly threatened by the
effects of climate change. delta region of Bangladesh and small atoll nations
in the Pacific Ocean such as Kiribati, Tuvalu,
accelerating as global temperatures rise, which Marshall Islands and the Solomon Islands. It is
means the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an feared that rising sea levels could flood many low-
increasing rate. lying areas and even submerge the entire area of
some island countries.
According to satellite measurements, a global rise
in sea levels is occurring at present at an average Not all the world’s ice is stored on the Earth’s
rate of between 2 and 3 millimetres per year. The surface. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground
rate of sea level rise appears to be accelerating, as that forms when soil temperatures remain below
average global sea level rise was about 1.7mm per 0˚C for at least two consecutive years, freezing any
annum during the period 1870 to 2005. The IPCC liquid water that has seeped into the space between
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) soil particles. It is estimated that about 25% of the
believes the increasing rate of sea level rise is due to world’s land surfaces have permafrost beneath
the impact of anthropogenic global warming. them, principally across vast areas in Canada,
Greenland and northern Russia.
The rise in sea levels has not been, and is not
currently, uniform across the globe. This to be
expected as sea levels are measured relative to the
land nearby, and land can rise or fall because of
forces such as tectonic uplift or subsidence. A local
change in sea level may be the result of a change in
the land rather than a change in the ocean. When
the rise or fall in sea level occurs globally due to a
change in the volume of ocean water, it is known as
a eustatic change. If the eustatic change is the
result of the beginning or end of an ice age, and
thus widespread melting or freezing of ice, it is
known as a glacio-eustatic rise or fall in sea level.

Rises in sea level do not happen solely because ice

caps and glaciers begin melting, for the same
reason that melting an ice cube in a drink does not 5.15 Buildings in Dawson City, a small town in Yukon, Canada,
are slumping because their foundations were built into the
significantly raise the level of liquid in a glass.
permafrost beneath, and the permafrost is melting.

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Global warming in sub-polar areas is melting of which is done by living organisms through
significant areas of permafrost. The melting occurs photosynthesis. Plants convert carbon dioxide into
in summer when atmospheric temperatures are at organic carbon compounds, which are ultimately
their warmest. The impact of rising temperatures converted back into carbon dioxide by respiration
has been amplified by other human actions, such and by the activities of soil bacteria when the plant
as clearing vegetation (which allows more solar dies and decomposes.
radiation to reach the soil surface) and the
Permafrost is one major store of carbon. Carbon
construction of heated buildings, which warms the
entered the permafrost during an extended period
ground beneath them.
that lasted many thousands of years as the polar
When permafrost melts, the soil becomes unstable, and glacial ice sheets repeatedly expanded and
making landslides more likely and causing shrank during successive ice ages and inter-glacial
buildings to slump or collapse. This is a growing warm periods. As the ice sheets advanced and
problem, as increased warming is affecting many retreated, the rock beneath the ice was ground into
fringe areas of permafrost, causing the total area of a fine powder called glacial flour. Over time,
permafrost in the world to shrink. successive layers of glacial flour were mixed with
decaying leaves, roots and other organic matter,
Carbon stored in ice, oceans, and including the dead bodies of animals, and added to
the biosphere the soil.

Carbon moves through the environment in Organic matter that is frozen in ice cannot decay, so
network of stores and flows known as the carbon carbon within the organic matter held in permafrost
cycle. Major stores within the carbon cycle include is trapped. It is estimated that 1,672 billion tonnes
the atmosphere, the oceans, ice sheets, living (or 1,672 gigatonnes) of carbon are currently
organisms and dead organic matter, carbonate trapped in the earth’s permafrost. This compares
rocks, and fossil fuel reserves. with 850 gigatonnes of carbon in the atmosphere.
When permafrost thaws, the organic matter within
Movements (or flows) within the carbon cycle it begins to decay. The decay occurs as bacteria and
begin with the primary production of carbon, much microbes consume the dead matter, releasing

5.16 The carbon cycle.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
carbon dioxide or methane – both significant
greenhouse gases – as waste into the atmosphere.
If oxygen is available, then the decomposing
organic material produces carbon dioxide, but if no
oxygen is available, methane is produced.

Temperature increases of up to 3C° have been

observed in permafrost zones, causing permafrost
to melt. This releases carbon dioxide and methane
into the atmosphere that add to the enhanced
greenhouse effect, fuelling further increases in
temperatures. On the other hand, warmer
temperatures means the annual growing season for
vegetation is extended, and this means plants have
5.18 Global warming allows longer growing seasons in cold
more time to absorb carbon dioxide from the
climates, enabling plants to absorb carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere. Measurements show that at present, atmosphere for longer periods of time. This alpine vegetation is
the extra plant growth in Arctic regions is absorbing growing near Koryaksky Volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula,
more carbon dioxide than the melting permafrost is Russia.
releasing, so on balance the region is acting as a net On a global scale, warmer temperatures promote
carbon sink. plant growth because the process of photosynthesis
accelerates with heat. Increased photosynthesis
and longer growing seasons act together to remove
larger quantities of carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere. On the other hand, in areas where
climate change leads to less precipitation and
perhaps even extended droughts, plant growth is
reduced and less carbon dioxide is absorbed from
the atmosphere. Areas experiencing droughts are
also more susceptible to forest fires, which release
significant quantities of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere as well as killing plants that were
working to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide.
425 8.33

Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

5.17 An area of permafrost melts during a period of warm,
400 Seawater CO2 (µatm)
sunny, dry, summer weather in the city of Yakutsk, Russia. The 8.28
Seawater acidity (pH)
melting permafrost has formed a pool of surface water,
weakening the structure of the two-storey wooden building that 375 8.23
was constructed using the frozen permafrost for its foundations.
Carbon Dioxide

Liberated carbon dioxide bubbles upwards into the atmosphere

Acidity (pH)

350 8.18
through the pool of water.
However, if the rate of global warming were to
325 8.13
increase, the situation could reverse and the Arctic
region may become a net source of carbon rather
300 8.08
than a sink. This condition is known as a tipping
point, which means the balance between gains and
275 8.03
losses switches from a fairly stable equilibrium 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
and becomes an unstable, escalating cycle driven
by feedback loops. Estimates by the University of 5.19 The relationship between rising levels of carbon dioxide
(CO2) in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa (Hawaii, USA) with rising
Colorado suggest that within a decade, permafrost
levels of CO2 and acidity in the nearby ocean. As CO2
may become a net source of atmospheric carbon accumulates in the ocean, the pH of the ocean decreases,
dioxide, contributing up to one gigatonne of carbon indicating that the ocean water is becoming more acidic.
dioxide annually. Source: modified after Feely (2008)

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
The world’s oceans serve as an important carbon
sink because, on balance, the oceans absorb more
carbon from the atmosphere than flows back from
the oceans to the atmosphere. In other words, there
is a net movement of carbon from the atmosphere
to the oceans. This occurs as atmospheric carbon
dioxide dissolves in the surface waters of the ocean.
As the proportion of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere increases, additional carbon dioxide is
dissolved into the oceans.

The increase in surface level carbon in the oceans

has significant implications for the chemical
composition of the oceans. As the concentration of
5.20 Coral growing in the warm waters of the Great Barrier
carbon dioxide increases, the surface waters
Reef near Cairns, Australia.
become more acidic and the concentration of
carbonate ions decreases. These changes reduce The combined effects of ocean acidification and
the ocean’s capacity to absorb more carbon dioxide. reduced production of calcium carbonate due to
Marine organisms are also affected by the change in global warming has a significant impact on coral
acidity. reefs. Coral reefs are large, wave-resistant
structures of calcium carbonate that have been built
When carbon dioxide enters the ocean waters, some by calcifying organisms. The main calcifying
of it is retained as dissolved gas, but most of it is organism that builds coral reefs are zooxanthellae,
used by marine organisms such as photoplankton which are single-celled algae that live in the tissues
in the process of photosynthesis. Photoplankton of many animals, including some corals, anemones,
play an important role in recycling nutrients in the jellyfish, and sponges. They are autotrophic, and
ocean ecosystem by converting light and chemical thus capture sunlight and convert it into energy to
energy directly into organic matter. Because they provide essential nutrients to the corals.
convert light directly into organic matter,
photoplankton are autotrophs. Photoplankton are Coral reefs are especially vulnerable to ocean
consumed by other marine organisms acidification because they are made from calcium
(heterotrophs), which are in turn consumed by carbonate, which dissolves in acid, even mildly
larger marine organisms in a food chain. At each acidic ocean water. Ocean acidification therefore
higher level in the food chain, the concentration of slows down reef growth by reducing the rate of
carbon increases. calcification and the rate of reproduction of
calcifying organisms. Measurements on the Great
Photoplankton are calcifiers, which means they Barrier Reef of Australia have shown a slowing of
build skeletal structures composed of calcium calcification rates of about 14% between 1990 and
carbonate. When photoplankton die, the mineral 2005 as a consequence of the combined impact of
matter of their skeletons settles down on the ocean rising temperatures and ocean acidification.
floor to build up layers of calcium carbonate as
sedimentary strata. Photoplankton also provide QUESTION BANK 5A
food for coral polyps (one example of a marine
1. What is the difference between the hydrosphere, atmosphere
heterotroph), which in turn secrete skeletons of and biosphere?
calcium carbonate to form coral reefs. As the
2. Explain how global warming can affect glaciers, being sure
concentration of carbonate ions in the ocean’s
to include the terms ‘zone of accumulation’, ‘zone of
surface waters decreases as a result of global
ablation’ and ‘dynamic equilibrium’.
warming, less calcium carbonate is produced by
photoplankton. Because carbon carbonate 3. Name three examples of glaciers in different countries that
dissolves in acid, the rising acidity of the ocean are retreating.
water further reduces the supply of carbon 4. To what extent is glacial retreat caused by anthropogenic
carbonate. climate change?

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5. How does glacial retreat affect the environment of the area • 15 of the 16 warmest years since 1880 have
surrounding the glacier? occurred this century, and four have occurred
since 2010 (table 5.1).
6. Explain why the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have
greater potential than all the world’s mountain glaciers to • Global average surface temperatures have
cause rises in global sea levels. increased by about 0.8C˚ since 1880, with two-
7. Why is the West Antarctic ice sheet unstable? thirds of this warming having occurred since
1975. The average rate of temperature increase is
8. What are ice streams, and how do the Antarctic ice streams about 0.15C˚ to 0.20C˚ per decade.
affect the stability of Antarctic ice shelves?
• Long-term shifts are occurring in atmospheric
9. Why is the rate of iceberg production an indicator of climate
circulation, such as a strengthening and shift of
change?
the prevailing westerly winds in the mid-
10. Explain why rises in sea level are not uniform in all parts of latitudes towards the poles.
the world.
• Measurements show that the number of days
11. What is thermal expansion of ocean water, and how it is
with frost in the mid-latitudes is decreasing, and
caused?
there is an increase in the number of extremely
12. What is permafrost, and why are people concerned that it is warm days (the warmest 10% of days or nights)
melting in some areas? and a reduction in the number of daily cold
13. Explain how melting permafrost can increase the extremes (the coldest 10% of days or nights).
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. • Heat waves have become longer as the second
14. Describe the processes that can offset the atmospheric half of the 20th century progressed, an example
impact of carbon dioxide release by melting permafrost. being the record-breaking heat wave over
15. How does global warming affect the length of plants’
western and central Europe in summer 2003.
growing season and the level of photosynthesis, and how do
these in turn affect atmospheric carbon dioxide?
Table 5.1
The 15 warmest years, 1880 to 2018
16. Explain how global warming can cause ocean acidity. Rank
Anomaly
17. What are the consequences of rising ocean acidity? 1 = warmest Year
C˚
Period of record: 1880 - 2018

Incidence and severity of extreme 1 2016 0.94

weather events 2 2015 0.90

3 2017 0.88
The impact of climate change on the atmosphere is
4 2018 0.82
more than a simple rise in temperatures as the
concentration of greenhouse gases increases. The 5 2014 0.74

extent of warming varies in different parts of the 6 2010 0.70

world, and temperatures are rising more in polar 7 2013 0.66
regions (the high latitudes) than in equatorial and 8 2005 0.65
tropical regions (the low latitudes). Furthermore,
=9 1998 0.63
temperature increases are greater in inland areas of
the continents than in coastal areas or on smaller =9 2009 0.63

islands. Associated with these trends, climates are 11 2012 0.62

becoming more variable, deviating further from =12 2003 0.61
long-term averages. As a consequence, extremes of =12 2006 0.61
heat and cold, and wet and dry, are becoming more
=12 2007 0.61
frequent.
15 2002 0.60
Evidence that climate change is affecting the Earth’s This table lists the global combined land and ocean annually-averaged
atmosphere includes the following: temperature rank and anomaly for each of the 15 warmest years on
record. Source: NOAA.

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5.21 As a result of rising atmospheric temperatures, evaporation 5.22 One of the effects of climate change is increasing intensity
increases, and this leads to more frequent and more intense and duration of droughts. This drought-stricken area is in the
precipitation events, especially in humid areas. This heavy Sahel region of central Mali.
downpour of rain is falling over Miami, Florida, USA.
• The volume of water vapour in the atmosphere
has been increasing since the mid-1970s as
temperatures have risen over both the land and
oceans. The rise in humidity is about 4.9% per
1C° warming as a world-wide average. The
increase in humidity is greater over the ocean,
where humidity is increasing by 5.7% per 1C°
warming, compared with the increase over land
which is 4.3% per 1C°.

• There have been significant increases in annual

precipitation since 1990 in the eastern parts of
North and South America, northern Europe and
northern and central Asia. On the other hand, 5.23 Worldwide snow cover is decreasing as a consequence of
several areas of the world have become global warming. This patchy snow cover is on the side of
Clements Mountain, a 2,670 metre high peak in Glacier National
significantly drier since 1990, examples being the
Park, Montana, USA.
Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa, the
Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of • Snow cover has decreased in most areas,
southern Asia. In general, precipitation is especially in spring as temperatures between
increasing over land between latitudes 30°N and latitudes 40°N and 60°N have risen. Satellite
85°N, and over Argentina, but is decreasing measurements show that while northern
between latitudes 10°S and 30°N. hemisphere snow cover in November and
December is not changing, snow cover in other
• The number of heavy precipitation events, such months has decreased by about 5% since the late
as storms, torrential downpours of rain and 1980s.
flooding, has increased since 1950, even in areas
where average precipitation has declined. As noted above, hurricanes are becoming more
frequent and more intense. Hurricanes, which are
• The frequency of hurricanes in areas around the
also known as typhoons and tropical cyclones, are
northern Atlantic Ocean has increased since the
highly intense low-pressure cells, with winds
early 1970s as a consequence of rising sea surface
generally exceeding 120 kilometres per hour. They
temperatures in the region.
spend most of their ‘lives’ over the warm oceans
• More intense and longer droughts have been from which they draw their energy and moisture.
observed since the 1970s, especially in the tropics When hurricanes move over land or over cooler
and sub-tropics. water, they tend to lose strength. When they move

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5.24 The aftermath of a hurricane in Manila, capital city of the 5.26 A resident in Manila cleans up in the aftermath of flooding
Philippines. caused by a storm surge during a hurricane.

provide most of the energy supply for tropical

cyclones. Other atmospheric hazards are also
increasing as global warming occurs. For example,
as climates become warmer, the number of
thunderstorms with extreme rainfall, tornadoes and
hail, heat waves, floods and drought are all
increasing in specific areas.

Droughts have always been a hazard in some parts

of the world, such as semi-arid areas in southern
Australia where erratic rainfall occurs naturally.
Although climate change has led to increased
frequency and intensity of rainfall in many parts of
the world, the extent of areas vulnerable to drought
5.25 A family starts to re-build their life after most of their home
is growing as a consequence of climate change.
was destroyed by a hurricane in Manila, Philippines.
As the areas vulnerable to drought have expanded,
into populated areas, they create a significant
the intensity of droughts has also increased. As
hazard as buildings are destroyed, and debris is
temperatures rise, the amount of atmospheric water
blown about. The winds in hurricanes can tear
vapour also rises as evaporation increases, leading
roofs away from buildings, uproot trees, and
damage power lines and communications.

Additional hazards that can arise from hurricanes

include coastal flooding and storm surges, which
are rises in ocean levels produced by high winds
and low atmospheric pressure. Besides causing
flooding, storm surges can also increase coastal
erosion, potentially causing slope failures.
Hurricanes can even start fires by damaging power
lines. Contamination of drinking water and
disruption of utility services, such as electricity,
sewers and communications, are also common
occurrences during hurricanes.

Global warming causes hurricanes to become more 5.27 As droughts in Australia become more frequent and
severe because sea surface temperatures increase as intense as a result of climate change, destructive fires also
the climate becomes warmer, and warm oceans become more common. This fire is in a drought-affected area in
southern New South Wales.

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to an increase of precipitation. However, in the in the water normally brings cool water from the
semi-arid inland areas of continents, there is less Antarctic northwards along the western coast of
surface moisture available for evaporation, so South America. As the current flows westward
rising temperatures and increased evaporation lead from South America, the water warms up and
to a drying of the surface, adding very little if any accumulates in the western Pacific to the north and
water vapour to the atmosphere. At the same time, east of Australia. The warm water heats the
changing circulation patterns in the atmosphere atmosphere above it, causing the air to rise in a
have redirected moist air away from these semi- system of low pressure cells. The rising air cools,
arid areas, resulting in more frequent and more condenses, and releases its moisture as
intense droughts. The growing problem of drought precipitation in northern Australia, Papua New
is most intense in Australia and Europe, where Guinea, Indonesia and other nearby nations.
recent droughts have been linked to heat waves,
In El Niño conditions, the current of warm water
which are extended periods of abnormally high
moving from the Antarctic northwards along the
temperatures.
western coast of South America weakens, allowing
Several atmospheric effects of climate change come the water temperature to rise as warmer water
together in El Niño conditions. As shown in the flows eastwards from the western Pacific.
top panel of figure 5.28, an anticlockwise circulation Consequently, low pressure areas of rising air form
over the eastern Pacific and high pressure areas of
Winds near the
falling air form over the western Pacific. This leads
equator gathers a
Pacific Ocean to heavy rainfall in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia in
warm water pool
towards the west South America, and drought conditions in Australia
Southern Equatorial current and the western Pacific.
Cold water
along the Changes in ocean circulation are thus closely
South related to changes in atmospheric circulation. El
Peru American
current coastline Niño events have become more frequent, persistent
South Pacific current and intense since the mid-1970s, and climate
NORMAL CONDITIONS
scientists believe this is a consequence of rising
temperatures.
Warmer
winter
Easterly winds Pacific Ocean QUESTION BANK 5B
weaken, allowing
warm water to
move eastward
1. Global warming affects the atmosphere to varying degrees
Southern Equatorial current
in different parts of the world. Which areas are more
affected, and which are less affected?
Peru 2. Quoting figures where possible, describe five pieces of
current
evidence that suggest atmospheric temperatures are rising.
South Pacific current
EL NIÑO CONDITIONS
3. Quoting figures where possible, describe five pieces of
5.28 Normal conditions (top) and El Niño conditions (bottom) in evidence that suggest the moisture content of the
the South Pacific Ocean. In normal conditions, the cold Peru
atmosphere is changing.
ocean current carries nutrients that encourage the growth of
plankton and fish in Peru’s coastal waters. Weather along the 4. Why does global warming cause hurricanes to become more
coast of northern Chile and Peru is typically very dry, which is frequent and more intense?
why desert conditions (the Atacama Desert) are present. In
Australia and other nations in the western Pacific, low pressure 5. Why does global warming cause droughts to become more
cells in the atmosphere cause air to rise, bringing rainfall. Under frequent and more intense?
El Niño conditions, warm ocean currents along Peru’s coast
force the fish to move further offshore into colder waters, 6. What is El Niño, and what changes does it cause to the
beyond the reach of the coastal fishing fleets. In Australia and atmosphere (a) in the western Pacific, and (b) in the eastern
the western Pacific, high pressure cells in the atmosphere bring Pacific?
drought conditions and a rise in the frequency and intensity of
bushfires. However, northern Chile and Peru receive more 7. Explain the link between oceanic circulation and
rainfall, sometimes causing flooding. atmospheric circulation that is demonstrated by El Niño.

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Spatial changes in biomes, estuary, or it may embrace an entire forest. It has
been suggested that the world’s largest ecosystem
habitats and animal migration is the rainforest of Brazil that contains thousands of
patterns species with millions of interactions between them
and covering an area of almost six million square
The biosphere is that part of the earth where all life
kilometres. The sum total of all the world’s
exists. It is the shallow layer of soil, rock, air and
ecosystems is the biosphere.
water around the earth’s surface that is only about
20 kilometres thick. If the earth were a soccer ball, An ecosystem can be thought of as being similar to
the biosphere would be less than half a millimetre a large tapestry in which each thread is a tiny
thick! Within this thin layer, there are both organic component of the total picture, and where every
components (such as plants, animals, insects, thread is supported by every other thread. If one
micro-organisms and their dead remains and body thread is removed, the effect is almost
wastes) and inorganic components. imperceptible. If several threads are removed, the
picture becomes somewhat distorted but still hangs
The biosphere represents a huge reserve of energy.
together. As more and more threads are removed,
There are three main sources of energy for the
the picture loses its coherence until a point is
biosphere — gravity, solar radiation and internal
reached where the tapestry collapses altogether. In
earth forces. Of these, by far the most important is
the same way as a tapestry hangs together, an
solar radiation. Plants use solar energy to make
ecosystem can be remarkably resilient, but also very
energy through the process of photosynthesis, and
fragile once a certain level of interference intrudes.
this energy is then available for use by animals and
people. Without solar energy, there could be no life Flows of nutrients and energy link the various
as we know it on earth. parts of an ecosystem. Figure 5.29 shows the
general movement of nutrients and energy with an
The term biome refers to the world’s total collection
of a particular type of vegetation community, such
as rainforests, deserts, grasslands and tundra,
together with the fauna that are associated with it.
The extent and nature of any particular biome
depends on several environmental factors, the most
important of which are climate, landforms, soils
and biotic factors.

One measure of a biome’s resilience is its

biodiversity, which is simply how much variety
there is in the life forms found there. At its most
basic level, biodiversity can be measured or
described by the number of different species in a
given area. As a general rule, we find more species
variation, and thus greater biodiversity, in biomes
that are found near the equator than those in colder
climates.

An ecosystem is an interdependent community of

plants and animals together with the habitat to
which they have adapted. All the elements of an
ecosystem are interrelated, being either directly or
indirectly dependent on every other element of the
ecosystem. A single ecosystem extends as far as the
interrelationships extend, and it follows from this
that ecosystems can vary enormously in size. An
ecosystem may simply comprise a small coastal
5.29 Energy and nutrient flows in an ecosystem.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
ecosystem. Like the biosphere in general, each When a plant or animal is eaten by the next
ecosystem has organic components (such as plants consumer in the food chain, most of the energy is
and animals) and inorganic components (such as lost. Of the incoming solar energy received by a
air, rock, water and soil). green plant, only one to two percent is converted
into plant tissue, meaning that 98% to 99% of the
The main source of energy for any ecosystem is the
solar energy received is unavailable for use by the
sun. The sun supplies energy that is absorbed by
secondary producer. This means that each stage in
plants through their green leaves by the process of
the food chain requires a larger and larger number
photosynthesis. Some of this energy is lost to the
of organisms lower in the food chain to support it.
atmosphere by respiration, but most of it is
This is known as the pyramid of numbers.
converted by plants into plant tissue and thus
becomes an energy and carbon store. Plants also
take in simple nutrients in solution from the soil in
which they grow, and use these to produce plant
tissue. Because plants are the first stage in the food
chain, they are known as primary producers.

The energy and nutrients that are stored in plants

can be released, or made available to other
organisms, in three ways. First, plant tissue falling
to the ground (such as leaves, twigs, fruit, branches,
or the entire plant when it dies) decomposes by
bacterial action and forms humus, which is decayed 5.30 The pyramid of numbers.
organic material. This process of decomposition
releases the minerals and nutrients into a storage At the first energy level of the food chain, there is a
pool for use by other plants. large number of green plants. Green plants are
also known as autotrophs, which means ‘self-
The second process is combustion, which occurs feeder’, because they have the ability to produce
when a plant is burned. Burning can occur due to their own food directly from the sun’s energy by
natural forces or due to human activity. Either way, photosynthesis. All the later stages in the food
burning releases gases such as carbon dioxide to the chain comprise heterotrophs (‘other-feeders’),
atmosphere and ash to the ground. which are also known as consumers. Each stage in
The third process is consumption of the plant the food chain represents a higher energy level, or
material by plant-eating animals, or herbivores. trophic level. At the highest trophic level, the
Because herbivores eat the plant, which was the ecologically dominant species is found. In many
primary producer using the solar energy, the ecosystems, this ecologically dominant species is
herbivore is known as the secondary producer. human beings.
The herbivore in turn releases the nutrients by both All ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change
respiration and the production of faeces. because they function within fairly narrow
Some of the nutrients from the plant are used up as tolerance levels. For example, if the precipitation
energy which is used to walk, run, breathe, and so becomes too high or too low, or if the temperatures
on, while the remainder is converted into animal become too hot or too cold, or if the purity of the
tissue in the herbivore. This energy may in turn be water is disturbed, and so on, then the ecosystem
released if the herbivore is eaten by a meat-eating may be placed under such stress that it collapses.
animal, or carnivore. Carnivores may be eaten by Cold-blooded organisms such as fish and reptiles
other carnivores, and thus a food chain is said to are especially dependent on stable environmental
exist. Each carnivore in turn also releases nutrients conditions, and if large numbers of these organisms
through respiration and the process of defecating. die, then there is a chain reaction throughout the
Dead animal tissue that is not consumed by a food web occurs.
carnivore is available for decomposition by micro- All ecosystems have a particular limiting factor
organisms, after which the nutrients are returned to that controls their stability and represents their
the storage pool for use in the future by plants.
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5.31 The bottom of this small river valley near the south-west 5.32 The environment of the Etosha salt pan in Namibia is
corner of Lake Issyk-kul, Kyrgyzstan, has green vegetation that limited by a minimum quantity of rainfall and a maximum
is absent on the nearby hills. This suggests the limiting factor of concentration of salt in the soil. These two limiting factors
the area’s ecosystem is availability of water, although soils and combine to restrict plant growth, which in turn restricts the
altitude (temperature) are important secondary factors. Grass number of animals that be supported. Therefore, the density of
and low bushes are the primary producers in the ecosystem, animals is greatest near freshwater sources, such as this
and the horses are introduced primary consumers. This waterhole at Okaukuejo. Climate change is likely to increase
ecosystem is vulnerable to changes in either temperature or rainfall in this region in the decades to come. This will relieve
rainfall, or both. the shortage of water but exacerbate the problem of salt in the
vulnerability to climate change. For instance, a soil, as increased soil moisture will free the salt to move into
areas where the soil is not currently too saline to permit plant
desert area may have sufficient solar radiation and
growth, thus killing grass and bushes that support animal life.
soil nutrients to sustain abundant plant life, but Even more worryingly, the liberated salt is likely to wash into the
lack of water would be the limiting factor. A glacial freshwater holes, making them unusable for drinking by animals.
area may have sufficient water and nutrients, but
1C˚, so there are grave concerns about the impact of
lack of incoming solar radiation limits plant
possible future rises in temperatures that may be
growth, which in turn limits the numbers of all
even greater.
other organisms in the ecosystem. Limiting factors
may not only be a minimum level — there may be Each species within an ecosystem fills an ecological
an excess of water, or heat, or nutrients, and so on. niche. A niche is a particular function within the
For example, if a farmer releases an overflow of ecosystem, and it may be performed by one or
fertiliser nutrients into a stream, the excess of several species. In different parts of the world,
nutrients can kill many organisms and severely different animals can adapt to fill the same
disrupt the ecosystem. ecological niche. To take just one example, the
kangaroo in Australia fills the same ecological niche
Therefore, ecosystems have three critical levels for
(eating grass) as the zebra and antelope in Africa
their limiting factors. First, there is the minimum
and the bison in North America.
level below which productivity ceases altogether.
Second, there is the optimum level where When an ecosystem is disturbed, it can leave a
productivity is greatest. Finally, there is the particular ecological niche vacant. A species might
maximum level above which productivity ceases be removed by hunting, a change in climate, a rise
once again. Each of these three critical levels can be in pollution, and so on. Occasionally, another
affected by climate change, whether natural or species can adapt and fill the vacant niche. More
anthropogenic. commonly, the removal of a species reduces the
flow of energy through the entire ecosystem,
It is believed that hundreds of living organisms causing stress and even the possible breakdown of
have become extinct in recent decades as climate
the ecosystem. Animals respond to ecosystem
change has pushed the limiting factors of plant and
disruption by migration or adaptation, or if neither
animal species’ habitats beyond the boundaries for
of these is successful, then death and ultimately
survival. These extinctions have occurred as
species extinction.
average global temperatures have risen by less than

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• the earlier annual onset of spring led caused 28
species of birds on the US east coast to begin
nesting earlier in the year

• birds from the north-eastern US that fly south for

the winter are returning north about 13 days
earlier than they did a century ago

• in California, 16 of 23 species of butterflies

studied have brought forward the timing of their
annual migration.

As temperatures have risen, some species in the

northern hemisphere are finding that they must
migrate further north to escape the heat. This is
5.33 A Canada lynx chasing a hare in the snow.
known as range shift, and is usually the first
The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is one species response of any animal species facing changes in
whose survival is threatened by habitat destruction the conditions of its habitat. Unfortunately, suitable
caused by climate change. The natural habitat of habitats may not always be available further north
the Canada lynx is found in all parts of Canada because of different types of vegetation, or even
apart from the Arctic north and the coastal plain to oceans, that cover the areas with suitable
the west of the Rocky Mountains. The lynx is also temperatures. Sometimes, animals and birds have
found in most parts of Alaska and in some isolated, to travel longer distances to reach a suitable
elevated areas of the north-western United States. seasonal habitat, and these may be beyond the
range of some species’ capacity to travel.
The Canada lynx is a carnivore that feeds almost
exclusively on the snowshoe hare, which lives in Plant species also migrate in response to climate
snow-covered areas within the region’s coniferous change, although of course individual plants do not
forests. Lynx have adapted to snowy conditions by move. Plant migration occurs through seed
developing very wide feet that enable them to stalk dispersal, allowing the wind or bird species to
hares in the snow without sinking. Lynx cannot transport seeds into new areas that are physically
survive in areas where the snow cover lasts less suitable for the plant species to colonise and
than at least four months of the year. flourish. In general, tropical and grassland biomes
are capable of faster migration than biomes in
Rising temperatures have forced the Canada lynx
alpine or sub-polar areas because the plants grow
to abandon its habitats in some US states where the
more quickly and have faster reproduction cycles.
annual snow cover has fallen below four months of
the year. IPCC estimates that temperatures in Figure 5.34 shows the predicted changes to global
North America will rise by between 2.5C˚ and 4.0C˚ vegetation cover under two different assumptions
during the coming century. If these estimates are of future global warming. Some parts of the world
accurate, snow cover that is suitable for the Canada will benefit from gains in vegetation cover as
lynx would shrink by between 10% and 20%, carbon dioxide levels rise and rainfall increases,
forcing the Canada lynx to shift its habitat while other areas will lose vegetation cover as
northwards. Should this be necessary, the habitat precipitation declines or limiting factors constrain
of the Canada lynx would shrink to about one-third habitats. In several parts of the world, desert areas
its present area in the contiguous United States. are predicted to contract in size in the process of
oasification, the opposite of desertification.
Many animal and bird species migrate annually to
avoid extremes of heat and cold. As global Contemporary fieldwork shows that the changes
temperatures rise, patterns of migration are forecast in figure 5.34 have already begun. In North
changing. Research by the United States America, Europe and Asia, the zones occupied by
Environmental Protection Agency has found that: vegetation species are shifting to the north and to
higher elevations. The US Environmental

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5.35 An arctic squirrel on the Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia.

As vegetation zones shift northwards, the arctic squirrel is
experiencing habitat reduction.

Forest cover gain

Shrub/woodland gain Grass and tree loss

Grassland gain Forest/woodland decline

Desert oasification Forest type change

5.34 Forecasts of changes to world vegetation cover by 2100. 5.36 A Siberian tiger near Harbin, China. As vegetation zones
The upper map shows vegetation changes assuming current shift northwards, this species is expanding its territory. This may
rates of resource use and climate change continue. The lower be fortunate for the Siberian tiger as its natural habitat has
map shows vegetation changes if significant measures are become fragmented in recent decades due to forestry
introduced to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and establish operations, threatening the survival of the tiger.
sustainable resource use. Source: IPCC
species in the ecosystem. In Canada and northern
Protection Agency estimates that in the United Russia, the expansion northwards of coniferous
States, both plants and animals are moving to and birch forests into tundra areas leads to habitat
higher elevations at an average (median) rate of 11 reduction for animal species that depend on the
metres per decade, and to higher latitudes at a tundra such as caribou, reindeer, lemmings, arctic
median rate of 16.9 kilometres per decade. For squirrels, arctic wolves and snowy owls. On the
some species, migration means an expansion of other hand, it has enabled forest-dwelling species
habitat, but for others, the move results in a less such as the Siberian tiger to expand their territory
hospitable habitat, with increased competition for northwards.
an ecological niche or a decrease in habitable area.
If a species is forced into a hostile environment and The Propertius duskywing butterfly (Erynnis
cannot adapt, it may lead to extinction. propertius) is found along the west coast of the
United States, all the way from the Canadian to the
In any ecosystem, plants and animals are Mexican border. It is a large insect, having a
interdependent. Therefore, a single change in the wingspan of 35mm to 45mm. During the
distribution of a plant or animal species will caterpillar stage, it depends on oak trees, but after
compound, affecting all the other plant and animal becoming a butterfly, it feeds on flower nectar.

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11. Outline evidence that the migration patterns of birds and
animals are changing as a response to climate change.

12. What is ‘range shift’, and why can it lead to problems?

13. How do plant species migrate as a response to climate

change?

14. Figure 5.34 shows expected changes in several biomes.

Choose one biome and describe the expected changes under
each of the projected climate changes.

15. Explain why habitat reduction for some species can lead to
habitat expansion for others. Provide an example of this
interaction.

16. Describe the impact of climate change on the Propertius

5.37 A Propertius duskywing butterfly.
duskywing butterfly, and outline the challenges faced by
Research has shown that the butterfly survives the species as a consequence.
better when the climate is warmer, and body size
increases in warmer climates. With temperatures Changes to agriculture
rising, this suggests that the natural habitat of the
Climate change affects different areas of the world
Propertius duskywing butterfly is shifting
in various ways. On average, the Earth is becoming
northwards. Unfortunately for the butterfly, there
warmer, with the largest rises in temperature
are almost no oak trees beyond their traditional
occurring in the mid-latitudes and high-latitudes.
habitats because it takes forests longer to move than
Although many areas are receiving more rainfall,
insects, animals and birds. Therefore, the
higher temperatures are leading to drought stress
butterflies’ habitat is shrinking, being squeezed by
in some areas. Extreme weather events are also
rising temperatures to the south and the lack of oak
growing in intensity and frequency. As a result of
trees to the north.
the mix of changes associated with climate change,
QUESTION BANK 5C it is understandable that the impact on farming and
agriculture varies from place to place.
1. What is the difference between a habitat, an ecosystem, a
biome, and the biosphere? In the mid-latitudes and high-latitudes, where the
largest rises in temperature are occurring, warmer
2. How does biodiversity help an ecosystem to be more
resilient?

3. Describe the linkages shown in figure 5.29.

4. Explain the cause of the pyramid of numbers shown in

figure 5.30.

5. Why are ecosystems vulnerable to climate change?

6. Giving examples, explain what is meant by the term

‘limiting factor’ when applied to ecosystems.

7. What are the three critical levels for the limiting factors of
ecosystems?

8. How can climate change force an ecosystem towards its

limiting factors, and perhaps beyond?

9. How do animals respond when their ecosystem is disturbed, 5.38 Viticulture (grape growing) in the Napa Valley of California,
USA. Climate change is affecting crop growth, and the impact of
such as when the climate changes?
climate change looks likely to increase in the future. In the mid-
10. Describe the impact of climate change on the habitat of the latitudes (shown here), earlier onset of spring will allow a longer
Canadian lynx. How have Canadian lynx responded to growing season, although hotter summers with more potential
this impact? for drought may reduce later growth. Increased atmospheric
carbon dioxide is likely to stimulate growth.

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temperatures generally increase the productivity of According to the IPCC, crop yields rise if
crops because plants grow more quickly in warmer temperatures in an area rise by up to 2.5C˚, but if
climates. This also means that crops can reach temperatures rise beyond that figure, the yields
maturity during a shorter growing season. Of decline. Crop productivity relies an a wide set of
course, there is a limit to this effect, and if factors including soil quality, the species selected by
temperatures rise excessively, plant growth suffers. the farmer, the extent of irrigation, and so on.
For example, during 2010 and 2012, abnormally Nonetheless, the IPCC predicts that as a result of
high temperatures during the night in the US Corn climate change, crop yields will increase as cooler,
Belt lowered crop yields, and premature budding temperate areas such as Canada, Argentina,
on cherry trees in the US state of Michigan in 2012 northern Europe, much of Russia and south-east
caused about US$220 million in lost production. Australia become warmer. On the other hand, crop
Warmer temperatures are likely to benefit crops in productivity will decline in equatorial and tropical
the cooler mid-latitudes and high-latitudes, but
rising temperatures may be detrimental to crops in
equatorial and tropical regions.

As the concentration of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere increases, plant growth is stimulated,
provided there are no other local limiting factors
such as poor soils or insufficient water. In that
sense, additional atmospheric carbon dioxide acts
like a fertiliser for crops, enabling photosynthesis
to take place more quickly and vigorously.
Fortunately for farmers, the fertilising impact of
carbon dioxide is greatest when plants are under
stress from heat or drought, both of which are
becoming more frequent as climates change. On
the other hand, rising levels of carbon dioxide also 5.40 Early harvesting of dry rice near Sukchon, North Korea.
As climate changes, crop yields and the timing of the growing
lower the nutritional value of some food crops
season will change, but the way these changes occur in practice
such as wheat, soybeans and rice by reducing the will depend on the location, the crop and the extent to which
concentration of proteins and other minerals. farmers adapt to the changing circumstances.

% change

+15% to +35%

0 to +15%

-15% to 0

-50% to -15%

No data

5.39 Projected changes to agricultural productivity due to climate change by 2080. The map takes three main factors into account:
(a) rising temperatures, (b) changing precipitation, and (c) the impact of carbon fertilisation by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Source: Re-drawn using IPCC data.

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Soil quality is an important factor in agriculture.
When the process of weathering breaks down a
rock mass, small particles become available to be
mixed with organic matter such as humus
(decaying plant matter) and animal faeces. Over
time, this process results in the formation of a thin
layer of soil. As the soil forms, it can support the
growth of small plants, which add additional
organic matter when they die. Over time, the soil
thus develops more fully and becomes thicker.
Eventually, a mature soil may form with layers
(called horizons) of different colours that are
roughly parallel to the ground surface. The
horizons reflect the movement of water and
minerals upwards and downwards. Soil formation
thus depends on the conditions of the atmosphere,
especially the temperatures and humidity, which in
turn affect the amount of precipitation that falls.

5.41 Irrigated farmland beside the Colorado River near Poston,

Arizona, USA. Irrigation is one of the common ways farmers
modify their environment to adapt to changing climates. 5.42 Soil erosion on a slope used for cropping and animal
raising near Copacabana, Bolivia. It is predicted that climate
areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, southern Africa,
change will cause more frequent and more intense rainfall
northern Australia, south and south-east Asia, events that will amplify loss of soil by gullying and sheet erosion,
much of the Middle East, northern South America, stripping the soil of its most fertile layer.
Central America and the southern United States.
The process of soil formation can be arrested and
One reason it is difficult to predict future crop reversed as soils are degraded. Soil erosion is the
yields is that farmers adapt to changing removal and transfer of soil particles from one
environmental factors such as rainfall and place to another, usually by wind or running water.
temperatures. Farmers can change the crop they It occurs in varying degrees on all soils and while it
plant to a species that is more attuned to the may be a natural process, it is often aggravated by
changing climate, and they can alter planting and the actions of people or sudden increases in rainfall.
harvesting times. More extensive adaptations
Rising temperatures and increases in carbon
include installing (or modifying) irrigation systems,
dioxide promote plant growth, which leads to an
switching to a completely different crop, changing
increase in fertile organic matter added to the soil.
the mix of fertilisers and pesticides, and so on. Past
On the other hand, increased temperatures also
experience shows that farmers are likely to adapt to
increase the activity of bacteria and microorganisms
changing environmental conditions, thus
in the soil that break down organic matter. The
mitigating the negative impact of climate change.
balance between these two changes varies from

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place to place. If microorganisms decompose
organic matter more rapidly than it can be replaced,
then the quantity of organic matter in the soil will
decline. On the other hand, if organic matter is
added more quickly than the microorganisms can
process it, then the quantity of organic matter in the
soil will increase.

Climate change is expected to influence the number

of pests that attack crops and pastures. Warmer
temperatures and rising levels of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere increase the growth of weeds
(unwanted plant species), which can compete more
effectively with crops by using the minerals and
5.44 Cattle being raised in a semi-arid area on the outskirts of
nutrients in the soil, thus reducing the productivity
Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Livestock such as these will be
of crops. The impact of rising temperatures on affected by climate change as higher temperatures increase
insect pests varies from place to place. Some insect summer heat stress, but reduce winter stress. It is predicted that
pests expand their habitats, following temperature vegetation in this region will become less productive in the
and rainfall changes. years ahead because of climate change, this will adversely
affect the feed and forage available for the cattle.
Rice leaf blast is a fungal infection that affects rice
For farmers who raise livestock, climate change
in areas with low soil moisture, frequent and
poses different challenges from those facing crop
prolonged rainfall and cool daytime temperatures. cultivators. High temperatures cause stress in
It can kill young rice seedlings, and it reduces the livestock by making the animals more susceptible
yield of rice grain on infected plants. According to to disease, reducing the yield of milk or wool, and
the IPCC, climate change is expected to have reducing fertility and reproduction rates. Seasonal
varying effects on the problem of rice leaf blast stress affects many animals in warm climates every
infection depending on the area. As temperatures summer, and this is expected to become an
rise, rice leaf blast is expected to become a more increasingly serious challenge for farmers as global
serious problem in cool, elevated subtropical temperatures continue to rise and heat waves
regions because the fungus is more likely to attack
become more extreme and prolonged. Livestock
rice where there are large diurnal (day-night)
farmers will also be affected as changing patterns of
differences in temperatures that cause dew to form temperatures and rainfall affect the supply of
on the leaves. On the other hand, rice leaf blast is pasture feed and forage, especially during periods
expected to decrease as a problem in warmer, of extended drought. Rising temperatures also
humid subtropical areas where dew formation at increase the prevalence of diseases and parasites,
night will be less likely to occur. as the combination of warmer winters, the earlier
onset of spring and increased humidity allow some
pathogens to survive more easily.

QUESTION BANK 5D
1. How do rising atmospheric temperatures affect plant growth
and crop yields?

2. Explain how rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the

atmosphere can both boost and retard crop production.

3. With reference to figure 5.39, locate and describe the broad

areas of the world where agricultural productivity is
expected to rise by 2080. With reference to each of the three
factors that figure 5.39 takes into account, explain why
these areas are likely to experience higher agricultural
5.43 Rice leaf blast on a rice plant. productivity.

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4. With reference to figure 5.39, locate and describe the broad Several health hazards are directly related to
areas of the world where agricultural productivity is atmospheric temperatures – high temperatures, low
expected to fall by 2080. With reference to each of the three temperatures and changing temperatures. An
factors that figure 5.39 takes into account, explain why example of a disease caused by high temperatures
these areas are likely to experience reduced agricultural is erythromelalgia, a vascular condition where
productivity.
blood vessels in the extremities of the hands and
5. In what ways do farmers adapt to changing climates? feet become inflamed and blocked in hot weather,
causing swelling, pain, numbness, and an inability
6. Explain how soils form, and why they are vulnerable to
climate change.
to work or walk properly. As global temperatures
rise, this condition is becoming more common.
7. Is climate change likely to increase or decrease the risk posed
by pests to agriculture? Give reasons for your answer. Raynaud’s syndrome is sometimes considered to
be the opposite of Erythromelalgia, in that cold
8. What is rice leaf blast? Describe the impact of climate
weather triggers reduced blood flow, numbness,
change on rice leaf blast.
pain and discolouration of the fingers and toes.
9. Explain how climate change can help and hinder livestock Medical practitioners hope that atmospheric
production (cattle raising). warming may lead to reduced incidence of cold-
weather vascular diseases such as Raynaud’s
Impacts of climate syndrome in the future.

change Mental health issues are another hazard arising

directly from climate change. Some people who are
Climate change is a process that affects all parts of
exposed to the traumatic effects of extreme weather
the world to varying degrees, and so it is not
events such as hurricanes, wildfires or prolonged
surprising that it has had substantial impacts on
droughts suffer ongoing mental health issues as a
humans. These impacts are expected to become
consequence. This is especially so when they have
even more significant if the extent of climate change
lost family members or close friends, where their
grows and expands in the years and decades ahead.
house has been destroyed and possessions lost or
It is important to remember that the negative damaged, or if severe injuries have occurred.
impacts of climate change are more likely to affect Mental health issues that may arise directly from
low-income communities as they have less the effects of climate change include post-traumatic
financial capacity to modify their circumstances. stress syndrome, depression, anxiety disorders,
As a generalisation, low-income people live within
the confines of their environment, whereas high-
income people modify their environment to suit
their desires and perceived needs. Many people see
an injustice in this situation because people in low-
income countries contribute far less to climate
change through greenhouse gas emissions than
people in high-income countries (figures 4.30 and
4.31).

Health hazards
Directly caused health hazards
Climate change leads to greater frequency and
intensity of weather events such as heat waves, 5.45 Perhaps surprisingly, the snow avalanche that destroyed
this house on the slopes of Mutnovskiy Volcano, Russia, may
prolonged droughts, hurricanes, floods and rising
have been triggered by global warming. Rising temperatures
levels of air pollution. These changes directly pose can destabilise accumulated snow by triggering early melting,
health risks to humans. lubricating the snow and enabling it to slide quickly and
unexpectedly down a slope.

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complicated grief, insomnia, sexual dysfunction parasites that transmit the infection, extending the
and drug or alcohol abuse. If widespread in a length of their breeding season and expanding their
population, these mental issues can impose habitats.
considerable costs on the health care system of a
The most dangerous vector for humans is
country for treatment and medications.
mosquitoes, which kill about 725,000 people
A particularly severe mental health issue caused by annually. Of these deaths, about 600,000 are due to
climate change is suicide. Suicide rates increase malaria, which additionally infects about 200
after extreme weather events such as hurricanes million people each year without killing them, but
and wildfires. Paul Epstein and Dan Ferber causing severe illness and loss of productivity.
conducted research in Australia that showed large Mosquitoes also transmit dengue fever, encephalitis
numbers of farmers in Australia had suicided after and yellow fever. Mosquitoes thrive in warm, wet
severe droughts, caused by climate change, had led conditions where stagnant pools of water such as
to recurring crop failures, which in turn left the puddles and ponds provide breeding grounds, and
farmers with nothing. Not all farmers suicide; warm temperatures allow mosquitoes to feed more
some suffered ongoing depression while others and grow more quickly.
resorted to domestic violence to deal with their
anger issues.

Indirectly caused health hazards

Mental health issues can also be caused indirectly,
examples being the anxiety or depression caused
by media reports that speculate sensationally about
disastrous future scenarios caused by climate
change. Health care professionals claim that
political and environmental activists have an
elevated risk of mental health disorders compared
with the general population because their concerns
are so deep about the issues they care about. This is
expressed through anger, disillusionment, despair 5.46 Pools of stagnant water in tropical areas make ideal
and social estrangement as activists become breeding grounds for malarial mosquitoes. The risk for humans
frustrated when the wider population seems not to is amplified when the water is close to people’s homes, as seen
here where homes are built over ponds in Dala, Myanmar. The
care as much about the environmental issues that
water hyacinth and algal bloom on the water indicate excessive
are pivotally important to the activist’s identity. nutrient levels as a result of animal and human organic wastes.
Climate change affects the ecosystem in ways that
can pose indirect health hazards. Examples of Climate change is expanding the habitat of
ecosystem changes include declining crop yields malarial mosquitoes by allowing them to spread
that can lead to malnutrition, increased humidity into higher altitudes where temperatures were
and precipitation that can stimulate numbers of previously too cool for them to survive. Unless
hazardous pests such as malarial mosquitoes, and preventative measures are implemented, the
changing ocean acidity that can affect fishing. number of people exposed to the risk of malaria
will be about 9.1 billion people by 2080.
Infectious diseases tend to spread more easily in
temperature extremes, either heat or cold. Diseases Dengue fever is another mosquito-borne disease
that spread in cold weather do so because people’s that is becoming more widespread as temperatures
resistance is often reduced when their bodies are rise. The habitat of dengue-carrying mosquitoes
under the stress of keeping warm in low has traditionally been restricted to the tropics.
temperatures. Diseases that spread in hot weather However, this is now expanding into areas that
do so because warm temperatures and higher used to be sub-tropical as mosquitoes occupy
rainfall favour the vectors such as insects or nearby areas where temperatures and humidity are
rising.

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Other vectors that thrive in warm, wet conditions non-tuberculosis mycobacteria (NTM). In some
include ticks, some of which carry Lyme disease, cases, consumption of dirty water leads to death;
parasitic flatworms that cause schistosomiasis and more people die each year from drinking water
onchocerciasis, and rats that cause bubonic plague than drinking alcohol.
and hantavirus. Warmer temperatures and rising
Droughts also make water stores more susceptible
humidity carry the risk of rising incidence of any or
to algal blooms, especially if the water has been
all of these fatal diseases.
enriched with nutrients from agricultural runoff or
Rising ocean temperatures can also pose a health animal wastes. As well as polluting the water and
hazard to humans. Microscopic heterotrophic making it toxic for human consumption, algal
zooplankton drift in the surface layer of oceans, blooms increase turbidity (shading or shadowing
consuming autotrophic photoplankton as their of the water), which suffocates aquatic plants and
food source. Zooplankton are carriers of cholera kills fish that might have been present. In this way,
bacteria, which is likely to be released when people’s nutrition is affected by the removal of a
nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the oceans rise. major source of protein in their diets.
Thus, a combination of rising ocean temperatures
and changes in the onshore currents (as occur
during El Niño events) can bring cholera-bearing
zooplankton towards the shoreline. If the cholera
bacteria contaminate coastal water supplies, then a
devastating outbreak could occur in the population.

Another consequence of rising ocean temperatures

is an increase in the number of toxic algal blooms,
which are also known as red tides. Warmer water
in the oceans encourages the growth of microscopic
algae, especially in coastal waters where there is a
high nutrient inflow of nitrates and phosphorus
from farms or factories. The algal blooms infect
marine organisms such as oysters, prawns (or
shrimps), mussels, lobsters, clams, octopuses and
squids. All of these marine organisms are eaten by
humans as sources of protein, and if they are
infected by the algal bloom, severe illness such as
paralytic shellfish poisoning may result.

Water-related health hazards

In low-income countries, climate change causes
health hazards for humans through its impact on
water resources. In areas where droughts are
becoming more prolonged and intense, such as
Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East,
surface water supplies are more prone to dry up
and underground wells are increasingly affected by
silt and contaminants such as agricultural runoff
and animal faeces. In times of water shortage in
5.47 A severe algal bloom has led to severe turbidity in this
livestock-raising areas in low-income countries, small water reservoir in the village of Kawkaban, Yemen. The
humans use the same water stores as their animals surface algal bloom is so thick that it supports other rubbish that
despite the health risks of sharing dirty water. has been thrown into the reservoir. Yemen is an area where
Consumption of dirty water leads to diseases such droughts are becoming more severe as climate changes, so
algal blooms in the water supply are expected to become more
as diarrhoea and pulmonary disease caused by
frequent.

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Economic impacts
Climate change is having an increasing financial
impact on people, both in high-income and low-
income countries. Among the factors that are
imposing an economic burden people are:

• Food is becoming more expensive as climate

change lowers the productivity of farms in some
parts of the world and extreme weather events
destroy crops and livestock. This additional cost
is exacerbated if the food supply has been
reduced for associated reasons such as the
expansion of insect pests and plant diseases into
new areas because of climate change. For poorer
people who cannot afford the rising cost of food,
the consequence is often malnutrition and even
starvation.

• El Niño events make farming and fishing on

both sides of the Pacific Ocean less predictable
and thus more prone to unexpected losses of
production.

5.49 In most countries of the world, climate change causes

rising prices for carbon-based energy fuels. One exception is
Turkmenistan, a major producer of natural gas where energy
prices are kept artificially low. This petrol station on the outskirts
of Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital city, is selling 95-octane
petrol for 1 manat (US$0.28) per litre, 92-octane petrol and
diesel for 94 tenge (US$0.26) per litre, and 80-octane petrol for
5.48 Fishing catches are becoming less predictable across the 87 tenge (US$0.24) per litre. Low fuel prices do not encourage
world as changing ocean currents and climate change combine conservation of scarce resources.
to affect the movement of fish and the locations of their habitats.
This can have a dramatic impact on fishing communities such as measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
this one in Cape Coast, Ghana. Protecting against the impacts of climate change
is thus adding to the cost of carbon-based energy.
• The oil and gas industries are vulnerable to
impacts of climate change such as hurricanes, • Several governments around the world are
storms, flooding and rises in sea level because a imposing emission trading schemes and carbon
significant amount of exploration and extraction taxes to discourage household and industrial
occurs in shallow coastal seas. When Hurricane practices that produce greenhouse gases. This is
Katrina hit the US Gulf coast in August 2005, it an attempt to place an economic value on
destroyed 126 oil and gas platforms and externalities so that their real cost is taken into
damaged an additional 183. Adding to this cost account when households and industries make
pressure, governments are requiring carbon- decisions regarding energy that have implications
based energy producers to take stringent for global warming. The taxes and charges are

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
designed to add a financial impost on the use of in Geneva (Switzerland) that is related to the
carbon-based energy sources, raising electricity United Nations, classifies three types of
and fuel costs for users. This usually affects low- environmental migrants:
income earners more than high-income earners
• Environmental emergency migrants: people who
because electricity and petrol (gas) represent a
flee temporarily due to an environmental disaster
higher percentage of total expenditure for low-
or sudden environmental event such as a
income earners.
hurricane.
• All of the economic costs of global warming
• Environmental forced migrants: people who
indirectly affect the insurance industry, which
have to leave due to slowly deteriorating
results in higher insurance premiums to cover
environmental conditions arising from causes
the cost of increased risk. Higher insurance costs
such as rising sea level.
especially affect companies that generate energy,
and these higher energy costs are passed on to • Environmental motivated migrants: also known
consumers. Higher insurance costs may make as environmentally induced economic migrants,
insurance unaffordable to low and middle- these are people who choose to leave to avoid
income households who previously would have possible future problems such as declining crop
been able to afford insurance cover. productivity caused by desertification.

• Donor fatigue towards aid organisations is likely

to become a significant problem with the
increased frequency and severity of droughts,
floods, tropical storms, heat waves and forest
fires, the spread of tropical diseases, a likely
increase in conflicts, and the increased costs of
energy and other economic costs facing donor
countries. The ageing of donor countries’
populations will increase donors’ health care
costs at the same time as it shrinks their tax bases.
This is likely to be one of the main sources of
pressure on donors’ aid budgets – not because
older people are any less generous than younger
people, but because the higher health care costs 5.50 As sea levels rise in Kiribati, the low land is flooded with
will erode public finances as people live longer increasing frequency. Kiribati is one Pacific island nation where
a significant proportion of the population may become
and there are fewer workers per retiree.
environmental forced migrants if sea levels continue to rise.

Migration In all cases of climate change induced

People who are displaced and forced to migrate environmental migration, people are forced to
because of the consequences of changing abandon their livelihoods and their residences
environmental conditions – including climate because their environment has become so hostile
change – are known as environmental migrants, or that they believe further adaptations to the climatic
in extreme cases, climate refugees. Climate change changes would be either pointless or physically
can force people to migrate because of rapid-onset impossible.
weather-related disasters such as flooding or In some cases, changes in the climate may lead to
hurricanes, or because of the cumulative impact of conflict over scarce resources such as water or
slow-onset effects of climate change such as sea fertile land. When this occurs, environmental
level rise or desertification. Environmental refugees may also become political refugees. Some
migration may be either within a country or across commentators argue that several recent conflicts
international borders. have arisen in part because of pressures imposed by
The International Organisation for Migration, climate change, or have been aggravated by climate
which is an intergovernmental organisation based change:

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
• Armed conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan like hurricanes or storm surges, environmental
between the government and several rebel migrants return to their homes once the hazard
groups has been aggravated as a prolonged event has subsided — this is known as circular
drought has brought farmers and herders into migration. When environmental refugees flee to
conflict over scare land and water resources. escape the impact of slow-onset impacts of climate
change, the move is usually permanent. Large-
• Civil War in Somalia between the government
scale migrations of people for these reasons may
and several armed rebel groups is said to have
lead to hostility or further conflicts as people try to
become more violent in response to extremely
cross borders and settle on land that is already
high temperatures and water shortages during a
claimed by others.
prolonged drought.
People who are displaced by natural disasters fall
• The Islamist insurgency in Nigeria, led by Boko
into two broad categories; those who are displaced
Haram, has been fuelled by anti-government
by climate-related events and those who are
claims that politicians and officials in the
displaced by geophysical events such as
Nigerian government have exploited scarce
earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. As
natural resources for their own advantage.
shown in figure 5.51, more people are displaced by
• The Syrian Civil War has produced a huge wave climate-related events than geophysical-related
of refugee migration, some of whom have fled events. Although the relative proportions vary
because of crop failures and livestock losses due from year to year, the proportion of migrants and
to drought. refugees who are fleeing climate-related events is
generally increasing. In the period 2008 to 2018,
The increasing frequency and severity of
87% of environmental migration was caused by
hurricanes can lead directly to migration of people
climate-related factors compared with 13% for
from low-lying areas as they attempt to escape the
geophysical-related reasons.
devastation, the loss of farmland and water
pollution from saltwater contamination by storm Figure 5.52 shows the world distribution of five
surges. In some cases, such as rapid-onset events hazards that are related to climate change. The

50
Climate-related displacements Geophysical-related displacements
(average = 21.1 million per year) (average = 3.1 million per year)
45
33.7
40
Total 2008-2018
35
Millions of people

30 231.7
25

20

15

10

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5.51 The global scale of people displaced by natural disasters, 2008 to 2018. Column graphs show the number of new displace-
ments per year, and the pie graph shows total numbers for the period 2008 to 2018.
Source: Re-drawn using Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
Greenland

Alaska Siberia
Kamchatka
North Europe
Po Aral Sea
America
Mediterranean Sea Asia
Mississippi Atlantic Ocean Huang He
Nile Yangtze
Arabian Ganges
Caribbean
Peninsula Indus
Arctic areas Sahel belt Mekong
Irrawaddy Kiribati
vulnerable to ice and Orinoco Horn of
permafrost melting Amazon Niger Africa Africa Maldives
Pacific islands
Areas exposed to South
desertification and America
drought
Indian Ocean
Areas exposed to Australia
Zambezi
hurricanes
Paraná
Great deltas

Small low-lying islands

5.52 Areas of the world where climate change is having significant impacts on people. The areas shown are likely to be the main
sources of climate refugees and environmental migrants. Source: Re-drawn using United Nations data.

areas shown are thus the likely sources of climate

refugees in the coming decades, depending upon
the extent of temperature and rainfall changes and
the ability of populations to adapt. In general,
poorer people have less capacity to adapt to climate
change, and they are also more likely to be located
in vulnerable areas such as low-lying land that is
subject to flooding, marginal zones on the fringes of
deserts and steep slopes. Therefore, poorer people
are likely to be over-represented among climate
refugees.

The Asia-Pacific region is regarded as the part of

the world that is most vulnerable to migration due
to climate change. This is because of the large 5.53 The Maldives consists of 26 atolls in the Indian Ocean with
number of climate-related disasters that occur in an average elevation of just 1.5 metres above sea level. Its
highest point is 2.4 metres above sea level, so it faces a serious
the region and the high population density in many
threat of inundation as sea levels rise.
hazard-prone areas. Large parts of East Asia and
mass evacuations and permanent migration
South-east Asia are exposed to hurricanes, flooding
should sea levels continue to rise, and Tuvalu
and periodic droughts, all of which are predicted to
already has an informal agreement with New
become more frequent and more intense if
Zealand to allow phased relocation.
temperatures continue to rise as expected.
The world’s large river deltas are also possible
Several small low-lying island nations such as
source areas for large-scale migration caused by
Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the
climate change. The river deltas comprise large
Maldives are especially vulnerable to sea level rise.
areas of low-lying, flood-prone land that have high
These nations already experience severe flooding
population densities because the land is so fertile
during storms and some high tides, and they face
and suitable for arable farming. Like the low-lying
the risk that rising seas may completely inundate
island nations, these delta areas are especially
their countries. The governments of these low-
vulnerable to the impact of rising sea levels because
lying island countries are exploring possibilities for
of their low elevations and gentle gradients. The

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
Figure 5.56 shows the expected changes in
shipping routes through the Arctic Sea as global
warming continues to shrink the Arctic ice sheet.
The computer simulation shows that by 2040-2059,
there will be many more shipping routes,
including new routes that cut through areas of the
Arctic ice shelf that are presently frozen and
inaccessible to shipping. An important new
transport route that is expected to open is the
North-West Passage, a currently unusable shipping
channel that separates Canada and Greenland and
extends through Canada’s northern islands.
Another shipping channel – the Northern Sea
Route that hugs the northern coastline of Asian
Russia – is expected to allow shipping for 90% of
the year, as opposed to 40% of the year at present.

5.54 An oblique aerial view of the Irrawaddy River delta, south 5.55 An ocean-going container ship of a type that would
of Yangon, Myanmar, showing the delta’s generally low altitude benefit if new sea routes were to open in the Arctic. Global
and areas of flooded land. warming looks likely to enable these new routes to become
established in coming decades.
IPCC estimates that a one metre rise in sea level The economic benefits of these new sea routes are
could flood 12% to 15% of Egypt’s arable land and clear as it is 40% quicker to ship goods from
11.5% of Bangladesh’s total land area. Rotterdam (Netherlands) to Yokohama (Japan)
along the Northern Sea Route than it is to use the
Ocean transport routes longer route through the Suez Canal in Egypt.
Rising temperatures in the Arctic are causing sea- As the climate warms and new shipping routes
ice to melt, opening up new possibilities to expand open up, there will be hazards to circumvent such
coastal and river navigation, water transport, as icebergs floating in the shipping channels. Many
fishing, tourism and trade. The Arctic Ocean conservationists are quite alarmed by the
occupies an important area that links the northern possibility of opening new Arctic shipping routes
parts of North America, Europe and Russian because of the destructive impact shipping may
territory spanning the full width of Asia. It also have on fragile Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic Sea
links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. If ice-free already supplies over 10% of the world’s fishing
shipping routes were possible, the Arctic Sea could catch, and it may be difficult to prevent further
become a major trading route, cutting the cost of exploitation of fishing resources in international
shipping by reducing the distance and time waters if more parts of the ocean are opened up to
required for current routes. shipping.

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 Chapter 5 - Consequences of global climate change
2006 - 2015 2040 - 2059

5.56 Computer simulations of Arctic shipping routes in September in 2006-2015 and 2040-2059, based on sea ice concentration
and thickness predictions assuming medium-low radiative forcing. The shipping routes shown join the North Atlantic Ocean
(Rotterdam, Netherlands and St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada) to the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait that separates Alaska
from the Russian Far East. Blue lines show the fastest routes available for common open-water (OW) ships, while red lines show the
fastest routes for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships with moderate icebreaker capabilities. The numbers shown in the key indicate the number
of each type of vessel expected to travel along various routes that are indicated by the thickness of the line on the map. EEZs
(exclusive economic zones) are zones in the ocean defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea over which a
country has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind.
The central area of the Arctic that contains the North Pole is beyond any country’s EEZ, and is regarded as international waters.
Source: Laurence C Smith & Scott R Stephenson (2013) New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury, Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(13): E1191-E1195. p.E1193.

On the other hand, warmer waters would increase

QUESTION BANK 5E
breeding productivity of fish in the region and
encourage fish from further south to migrate into 1. What is the difference between health hazards that are
the region. Nutrient levels would also change as caused directly by climate change and health hazards that
ocean currents adapt to the removal of sea ice, so are caused indirectly by climate change? Give three
examples of each, and describe how they are affected by
depending on the outcome of different species
climate change.
competing for their ecological niche, aquatic life
could potentially expand and become more diverse. 2. Name three economic impacts of climate change, and
On balance, it is difficult to predict the changes of describe the way each is magnified by climate change.
aquatic ecosystems that would result from less sea 3. Describe the ways in which rapid-onset and slow-onset
ice and more shipping traffic. climate change cause environmental migration.

Away from the Arctic, higher sea levels caused by 4. Using figure 5.51, state the number of climate-related
climate change would create problems for large displacements in each year from 2008 to 2018. Use this
ships in some coastal ports, reducing the clearance information to calculate the percentage of people displaced
for vessels under waterway bridges. On the other by natural disasters in each year who are climate-related
hand, the water level is predicted to fall in inland displacements.
waterways such as the Great Lakes in North 5. Describe how each of the five factors shown in figure 5.52
America, and this will create problems for larger can force climate refugees to migrate.
vessels as the channels become shallower. Large
6. Giving specific examples, explain how climate change may
ships may face weight restrictions, or even be
open up new ocean transport routes. What are the benefits
banned altogether from shipping channels that can and challenges of these new ocean transport routes?
no longer accommodate them safely.

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 Chapter
6 Responding to
climate change

6.1 Demonstrators protest against climate change in San Francisco, California, USA.

Climate change risk and Identifying and measuring risk

vulnerability Risk is any factor that exposes people to danger or
impedes (or threatens to impede) people achieving
The impact of climate change can be devastating their goals. Risk can also be viewed as a motivation
for some communities. Climate change can lead to to make changes that find new solutions. If risk
economic disruptions as farming systems begin to and vulnerability are to be addressed, they must
collapse, and in cases where this leads to mass first be identified, assessed and quantified.
migration, the effects are felt on an even more
One way of measuring the risk of climate change is
widespread scale. As an issue of global magnitude,
the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)
climate change thus affects every person on the
that was developed by Maplecroft, a consultancy
planet. Having said that, there are some people
firm that specialises in identifying global risks. The
who face greater risks than others, and some
CCVI is a composite indicator that combines three
communities are more vulnerable to the impact of
simpler composite indices:
climate change than others.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
• The Climate Change Exposure Index analyses • extreme risk (a CCVI of 0.00 to 2.50)
exposure to climate-related natural disasters by • high risk (a CCVI of 2.50 to 5.00)
examining future seasonal climatic variability, • medium risk (a CCVI of 5.00 to 7.50)
climate extremes, long-term trends of climate • low risk (a CCVI of 7.50 to 10.00).
change and sea level rise;
The world distribution of the latest available data,
• The Climate Change Sensitivity Index analyses which measures the CCVI of 191 countries, is
population patterns, economic development, shown in figure 6.2. Four of the five most
natural resources, agricultural dependency, vulnerable countries to climate change were in
conflicts and individuals’ financial situations to Africa – the Central African Republic (with a CCVI
ascertain the susceptibility of communities to of 0.01), the Democratic Republic of Congo (0.20),
both short-term and long-term impacts of climate Liberia (0.25) and South Sudan (0.41) – while the
change; and other extremely vulnerable country was Haiti (in
the Caribbean, with a CCVI of 0.24). At the other
• The Climate Change Adaptive Capacity Index
end of the scale, four of the most resilient countries
looks at future vulnerability by examining a
to the impact of climate change were in Europe –
government’s capacity to adapt the country’s
Denmark (with a CCVI of 10.00), the United
policies, structures and infrastructure to combat
Kingdom (9.96), Iceland (9.85) and Ireland (9.83) –
climate change and manage disasters.
the other country being Uruguay (in South America
The CCVI examines most areas of the world in 25 with a CCVI of 9.95). Figure 6.3 shows the regional
square kilometre segments, and then calculates a distribution of countries measured by their CCVIs.
risk score using a scale of 0 to 10. A score of 10
Another measure of vulnerability to climate change
means the country is highly resilient to the impact
is the Global Climate Change Risk Index (CRI),
of climate change, whereas a score of 0 means the
developed by Germanwatch, an NGO based in
country has minimal resilience to the impact of
Bonn, Germany that seeks to influence public
climate change, and is thus highly vulnerable. The
policy in matters of trade, the environment, and
scale of 0 to 10 is then divided into four segments to
relations between developed and developing
categorise each country according to a four point
countries. The CRI examines data that describes
classification:

No data
Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk
6.2 Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), 2017. Source: © Verisk Maplecroft 2016.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
Average risk score by region Number of countries in each risk category
80
70 75
2.89 4.05 4.56 4.93

Number of countries
60
Africa Central America Caribbean Oceania
50
40
44
30 39
33
5.53 5.69 7.81 8.13 20
10
Asia S. America N. America Europe
0
Extreme High Medium Low

Regional breakdown (white numbers show the number of countries)

Africa 27 14 12

Asia 3 11 32 4

Caribbean 1 3 9

Central America 5 3

Europe 14 29

North America 2

Oceania 2 4 2 2

South America 7 3 2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Extreme High Medium Low
6.3 Distribution of risk arising from climate change, measured by the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) for 191 countries, 2017.
Source: Re-drawn from data © Verisk Maplecroft 2016.

extreme weather events and the socio-economic The CRI is less comprehensive than the CCVI as it
situations of the countries where they occur. Four focuses only on the direct impact of weather and
key factors are examined with different weightings: climate events, and does not take into account other
• number of deaths (16.67% weighting) aspects of climate change such as rising sea levels,
• number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants melting glaciers or ice sheets, or ocean warming
(33.33% weighting) and acidification. It focuses on individual events,
• sum of losses in US dollars in purchasing power but emphasises the point that these individual
parity (PPP) (16.67% weighting) weather events are becoming more frequent and
• losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product intense due to climate change.
(GDP) (33.33% weighting).

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change

CRI Ranking

1 - 10

11 - 20

21 - 50

51 - 100

> 100

No data

6.4 Climate Risk Index (CRI), rankings 1998 to 2017. Source: Re-drawn from Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 2019.

The CRI is measured as a ranking, so the most the 20 year period of 1998 to 217, the countries that
affected country receives a score 1, the second most were most affected by weather events were Puerto
affected country receives a score of 2, and so on. Rico, Honduras and Myanmar, followed by Haiti,
Analysis of the CRI has shown that during the the Philippines and Nicaragua. Details of the losses
period 1998 to 2017, more than 526,000 people died are shown in figure 6.4 and table 6.1.
as a result of weather events, and financial losses
A third measure of vulnerability to climate change
over the same period totaled US$3.47 trillion.
is the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), which
The major causes of death and damage were was developed by two university geographers,
precipitation, floods and landslides, all of which are Caroline Sullivan and Jeremy Meigh. The CVI,
becoming more frequent due to climate change as which is used by UNESCO to measure the impact
the operation of the water cycle accelerates. During of climate change, is a single number that sums up
Table 6.1
The long-term Climate Risk Index (CRI) for the 10 most affected countries, 1998 to 2017 (annual averages)

The four key factors

Total number
CRI Rank
Country CRI Score Deaths per Total losses in of events
1998 to 2017 Losses per unit 1998 to 2017
Death Toll 100,000 US$ million
of GDP (%)
inhabitants (PPP)

1 Puerto Rico 7.8 150.05 4.06 5,033.16 4.20 25

2 Honduras 13.0 302.45 4.22 556.56 1.85 66

3 Myanmar 13.2 7,048.85 14.39 1,275.96 0.66 47

4 Haiti 15.2 281.30 2.92 418.21 2.64 77

5 Philippines 19.7 867.40 0.97 2,932.15 0.58 307

6 Nicaragua 20.3 163.60 2.95 223.25 1.01 45

7 Bangladesh 26.7 635.50 0.43 2,403.84 0.64 190

8 Pakistan 30.2 512.40 0.32 3,826.03 0.57 145

9 Vietnam 31.7 296.40 0.35 2,064.70 0.52 220

10 Dominica 33.0 3.35 4.72 132.59 21.21 8

Source: David Eckstein, Marie-Lena Hutfils and Mark Winges (2019) Global Climate Risk Index 2019, Bonn: Germanwatch e.V. p.8.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
human vulnerability to climate change at any ‣ agricultural and industrial water use related to
location. It differs from the CCVI and CRI by their respective contributions to GDP
focusing mainly on water-related issues that arise
• Environment (E), which includes:
from climate change. The CVI is calculated by
‣ livestock and human population density
examining six key variables:
‣ loss of habitats
• Resources (R), which includes: ‣ flood frequency
‣ assessment of surface water and groundwater
• Geospatial factors, which include:
availability
‣ extent of land at risk from sea level rise, tidal
‣ evaluation of water storage capacity, and
waves, or land slips
reliability of resources
‣ degree of isolation from other water resources
‣ assessment of water quality, and dependence
and/or food sources
on imported/desalinated water
‣ deforestation, desertification and/or soil
• Access (A), which includes: erosion rates
‣ access to clean water and sanitation ‣ degree of land conversion from natural
‣ access to irrigation coverage adjusted by vegetation
climate characteristics ‣ deglaciation and risk of glacial lake outbursts
• Capacity (C), which includes: The CVI is calculated by weighting these variables
‣ expenditure on consumer durables, or income according to their relative importance using the
‣ GDP as a proportion of GNP, and water formula
investment as a % of total fixed capital rrR + raA + rcC + ruU + reE + rgG
CVI =
investment rr + ra + rc + ru + re + rg
‣ educational level of the population, and the where R, A, C, U, E and G are the Resource, Access,
under-five mortality rate Capacity, Use, Environment and Geospatial
‣ existence of disaster warning systems, and components, and the weight given to each factor is
strength of municipal institutions the factor r. The index values range from 0 to 100,
‣ percentage of people living in informal housing with higher values representing higher
‣ access to a place of safety in the event of vulnerability.
flooding or other disasters
The world distribution of vulnerability due to
• Use (U), which includes: climate change as measured by the CVI is shown in
‣ domestic water consumption rate related to figure 6.5.
national or other standards

CVI

High, 52.0 - 60.0

Med. high, 44.0 - 51.9

Medium, 36.0 - 43.9

Medium low, 28.0 - 35.9

Low, 20.0 - 27.9

No data

6.5 Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI). Source: Re-drawn from UNESCO.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
Vulnerability

Readiness

6.6 ND-GAIN vulnerability and readiness matrix. Source: Re-drawn from University of Notre Dame ND-GAIN data.

A fourth measure of climate change risk is the ND- Figure 6.6 shows the world distribution of risk
GAIN Index, also known as the Notre Dame arising from climate change determined by the
Global Adaptation Index. Developed by the relative importance of each country’s vulnerability
University of Notre Dame’s Environmental Change and readiness. Countries in dark green have low
Initiative in Indiana, USA, ND-GAIN attempts to vulnerability to climate change and are well
show which countries are best prepared to deal prepared to respond to climate change pressures.
with global changes brought about by Countries in light green are highly vulnerable but
overcrowding, resource-constraints and climate also well prepared to handle climate change
disruption. The index is based on combining two challenges. Countries in orange are not very
key dimensions: vulnerable to climate change impacts, but they are
also poorly prepared if something should happen.
• Vulnerability: this measures a country’s
The most exposed countries are shown in brownish
exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to the
maroon, as they are highly vulnerable to climate
negative effects of climate change. The
change and also poorly prepared to handle problem
vulnerability dimension considers six life-
if, or when, they arise.
supporting sectors – food, water, health,
ecosystem service, human habitat, and Figures 6.7 and 6.8 show the world distribution of
infrastructure. each of the two dimensions of the ND-GAIN
(vulnerability and readiness). Figure 6.9 combines
• Readiness: this measures a country’s ability to
these two factors to show the world distribution of
activate investment funds and convert them to
the overall risk of climate change impacts.
adaptation actions. The readiness dimension
measure considers three components – economic The four measures of climate change risk that we
readiness, governance readiness and social have examined emphasise different factors, so it is
readiness. not surprising that the distributions of climate
change risk they display differ from each other.
The ND-GAIN is calculated using the formula
Nonetheless, one strong common characteristic of
ND-GAIN = (RI – VI +1) x 50 all the measures is that the people most exposed to
where RI is the Readiness Index and VI is the risks from climate change live in low-income
Vulnerability Index. The Readiness Index is countries. Most of the measures show the greatest
expressed on a scale of 0 to 1, where higher figures risks from climate change are for people living in
are better. The Vulnerability Index is expressed on Africa and some small, low-lying Pacific nations.
a scale of 0 to 1, where lower figures are better. The CRI shows less risk for people in Africa, and

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change

Worse

Better

No data 6.7 ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index. Source: Re-drawn from University of Notre Dame ND-GAIN data

Worse

Better

No data 6.8 ND-GAIN Readiness Index. Source: Re-drawn from University of Notre Dame ND-GAIN data

Worse

Better

No data 6.9 ND-GAIN Combined Index. Source: Re-drawn from University of Notre Dame ND-GAIN data

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
places the greatest risk in some poorer countries in
Central America, South and South-east Asia. The
UNDP supports this finding, stating that 99% of the
casualties of climate change will be in developing
countries.

Within the countries at risk from climate change,

certain demographic groups are disproportionately
affected:

• Poorer people are more affected by climate

change because they are less able to afford the
rising food prices that result from climate change.

• Poorer people are often forced to live in marginal

6.10 Poorer people suffer from rising food prices more than
areas because housing and land prices are
wealthier people because food costs a larger proportion of their
cheaper there, and it is all they can afford. People total income. This food market is in Antananarivo, Madagascar.
who are forced to live on marginal land or land
that is more likely to be affected by floods or
droughts have less capacity to modify their living
conditions to adapt to climate change, and less
capacity to migrate to less vulnerable areas.

• Poorer people are more susceptible to diseases

that are spreading into new areas in response to
climate change because their resistance is
reduced by poor diets, and they are often unable
to afford vaccinations or adequate medical care.

• Women suffer the impacts of climate change

more than men because in most parts of the
world, women are more impoverished than men,
and have lower incomes (or no income). 6.11 In many low-income countries, most houses do not have
Whereas men in most societies are engaged in the piped water. It is usually the job of women and children to carry
commercial economy and are more likely than water from streams or wells to the house, as seen here in
Sanga, Mali.
women to be employed, women in developing
countries are more likely than men to be • Similarly, carrying fuelwood is regarded as
subsistence food producers who do not earn an women’s work in many low-income countries.
income for their work, and who must try and As climate change degrades the vegetation cover
cope with changing temperature and rainfall in some semi-arid environments, women and
patterns with few financial resources to assist. girls must walk ever-increasing distances to find
enough fuelwood for their needs. As a result of
• With little or no control over finances and family having to spend more time and effort gathering
assets, women in developing countries that are fuelwood, women have less time to complete
affected by climate change are usually under- their household responsibilities, earn money,
represented in community politics, and therefore engage in community life, learn to read or
have little influence on decisions that might help acquire other skills, or simply rest. Girls in some
adaptation to the impacts of climate change. societies are kept home from school to help
• Women and girls bear most of the work of gather fuelwood, thus perpetuating a cycle of
carrying water to homes in developing countries, disempowerment. When climate change forces
and as climate change dries up streams, lowers women and girls to search for fuelwood over
the groundwater and causes prolonged droughts, longer and longer distances, women and girls
this laborious work becomes even more become more vulnerable to injuries from carrying
burdensome.
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heavy loads over long distances, and they are
more likely to be exposed to risks such as sexual
harassment and assault.

• Women are less likely than men to have received

an education than men in developing countries,
so they have less access to information and
services that might help them understand and
cope with the impacts of climate change. This
challenge applies to all people who have not
received a full education.

• In some societies affected by climate change,

women’s traditional clothing impedes their
ability to run or swim as they try to escape a
disaster such as a wildfire or a flood that was
caused by climate change.

• During extreme weather events in some societies,

women may be unable to migrate or relocate
because they require permission from a male
relative to do so.

• Women are more vulnerable to malaria, which is

spreading due to climate change, especially when
they are pregnant, because physiological changes
such as increased exhaled breath and heat
dissipation make them more attractive to malarial
mosquitoes.

• Older people are less likely to be actively

involved in the workforce, and therefore they are
more likely to lack the financial resources needed 6.13 In many poorer countries, women spend long hours
to adapt to the impacts of climate change such as carrying heavy bundles of fuelwood over long distances. As
rising food prices, medical conditions, or the climate change affects vegetation cover, women are being
forced to travel ever increasing distances. This woman is
need to relocate their home.
bringing fuelwood to her village about 70 kilometres east of
Turmi, Ethiopia.
• Many older people suffer the impacts of climate
change disproportionately as their frail bodies
struggle to cope with the stresses of heat waves
and the increase of pollutants and vector-borne
diseases that accompany climate change.

• Like older people, children are especially

susceptible to the spread of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria and Lyme disease, both of which
are expanding as a result of climate change, as
well as seasonal allergies, air pollution,
malnutrition and excessive heat.

The strength of the impact of climate change on a

6.12 Women are disproportionately affected by climate change population depends on a combination of natural
in semi-arid environments because they do about 80% of the and human factors that vary in their significance in
farming work. These women are pounding grain in Gogoli, Mali.

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counteracting forces are shown at the centre of
figure 6.15, where the balance between them
determines the extent of risk faced by people
during a climate hazard event.

When a climate hazard event occurs, its impact has

two sets of consequences. On one hand, the hazard
event can be a force that changes the climate of the
area. This happens, for example, when part of an
ice sheet melts and reduces the albedo, causing
more insolation to be absorbed, warming the
climate and perhaps causing more of the ice sheet
to melt, and so on.

6.14 Children in poorer communities are especially vulnerable The second consequence of a climate hazard event
to the impact of climate change because they are often seen as is the impact it has on the human population.
having a lower priority when food becomes scarce. These Human responses to hazard events include
children are sharing food in Hukuluak, a small village in West
managing the risk and adapting in ways that
Papua, Indonesia.
minimise the future risk. This in turn has two
different parts of the world. Figure 6.15 shows
consequences. First, greenhouse gas emissions
these factors, together with the feedback loops that
and land uses change, and these in turn feedback
help to perpetuate the impacts.
into the cycle of anthropocentric climate changes.
Starting at the left hand side of figure 6.15, we see Second, people’s perception of climate risk
that the major force affecting climate change risk is changes, which in turn affects their readiness to
the nature and extent of climate change, which has respond to future climate hazard events.
two components – natural climate variability and
Risk perception is a significant factor that affects
anthropocentric climate change. As the ND-GAIN
the vulnerability of a population and its readiness
analysis above showed, the strength of climate
to respond to a hazard. In spite of the
change risk depends on two counteracting forces,
overwhelming evidence leading climate scientists
vulnerability (which raises the risk) and readiness
to conclude that anthropogenic factors are a
to respond (which mitigates the risk). These

Impacts of climate change

Human responses
Climate change Vulnerability
to climate change
drought/extreme weather
Ability to respond
Natural sea level Disaster risk
variability Climate age/gender/$ management
hazard Risk
events
Anthropogenic Climate change
climate change adaptation
Readiness
to respond
Kiribati/US
Risk perception
Greenhouse gas emissions
and land-use changes
6.15 Factors that affect the impact risks of climate change, with the feedback loops that perpetuate the risk. Source: Modified from IPCC.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
significant contributor to global climate change, it 9. Using figure 6.6, describe the world pattern of climate
remains a politically charged controversy in some change risk as indicated by the ND-GAIN matrix.
countries. People who deny the significance of 10. Explain why vulnerability and readiness work in opposite
anthropogenic climate change will be unwilling to directions when assessing climate change risk.
commit resources and energy to reducing
11. Describe the pattern of climate change risk shown in figure
greenhouse gases or making an effort to minimise
6.9, and explain how it is the result of the combined
climate-changing activities. On the other hand,
influence of vulnerability (figure 6.7) and readiness (figure
people who are alarmed by the consequences of
6.8).
climate change will behave very differently,
engaging in conscious efforts to reduce climate 12. Explain why each of the following groups are
disproportionately vulnerable to climate change: (a)
change and support political groups that pledge to
impoverished people, (b) women, (c) children, (d) poorly
work towards such goals.
educated people, (e) the elderly.
Irrespective of whether a person lives in a low-
13. Using figure 6.15, write about 300 words to explain the
income country or a high-income country, risk forces that influence climate change risk.
perceptions about climate change are affected by
many factors, including: 14. Using figure 6.15, write about 250 words to explain how
risk perception is affected by the ways people respond to
• the amount of factual knowledge and data a climate hazard events, and how risk perception can in turn
person has on the subject change a person’s readiness to respond to a future climate
hazard event, thus influencing their vulnerability.
• the extent to which a person feels personally
affected or threatened by the risks of climate 15. What factors affect the strength of a person’s risk perception
about climate change?
change

• how immediate the risks seem to a person, as CASE STUDY

distant risks are easier to ignore than immediate
Kiribati
risks

• the extent to which a person has control to avoid Location and demographics
or modify the risk rather than just accepting its Kiribati (pronounced Kirri-bass) is a republic
inevitability located in the central Pacific Ocean. It is the only
• the extent to which a person is open to changing country in the world to straddle all four
their ideas on the basis of factual evidence. hemispheres as it spans both the equator and the
China
QUESTION BANK 6A 180˚ 3
1
1. What factors are included when calculating the CCVI? 2 Pacific Ocean
4 5
2. Using figure 6.2, describe the world pattern of climate 0˚ 0˚
change risk as indicated by the CCVI. 6 7 Kiribati
Indonesia
8 9 10
3. With reference to figure 6.3, compare the vulnerability to 11 12
14 13 19
15 20
climate change in the eight regions shown. 16 17
Australia 18
4. How does the CRI differ from the CCVI?
New Zealand
5. Using figure 6.4, describe the world pattern of climate
change risk as indicated by the CRI. 0 2,000
180˚
Kilometres
6. How does the CVI differ from the CCVI and CRI? 6.16 The location of Kiribati in relation to its neighbouring
countries. 1 = Northern Mariana Islands. 2 = Marshall Islands.
7. Using figure 6.5, describe the world pattern of climate 3 = Hawaiian Islands (USA). 4 = Palau. 5 = Federated States of
change risk as indicated by the CVI. Micronesia. 6 = Papua New Guinea. 7 = Nauru. 8 = Solomon
Islands. 9 = Tuvalu. 10 = Tokelau. 11 = Wallis and Futuna
8. How does the ND-GAIN differ from the CCVI, CRI and Islands. 12 = Samoa. 13 = American Samoa. 14 = Vanuatu.
CVI? 15 = New Caledonia. 16 = Fiji. 17 = Tonga. 18 = Niue. 19 = Cook
Islands. 20 = French Polynesia.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
International Date Line. Specifically, Kiribati The adjective of Kiribati, which is also used to
extends from latitude 5˚N to 12˚S, and longitude identify people who live in Kiribati, is I-Kiribati
168˚E to 148˚W. (pronounced E-Kirri-bass). Kiribati has a
population of 115,850 people, 50.8% of whom are
Kiribati comprises 33 widely scattered islands that
female and 49.2% male. The median age of I-
are dispersed across a 3.6 million square kilometre
Kiribati people is 22.5 years, with 36% of the
section of ocean that measures 800 kilometres
population being aged 14 years and below. The
north-south and 3,210 kilometres east-west. There
percentage of young people is growing, reflecting
are three main clusters of islands – the Gilbert
the country’s high birth rate of 28 births per 1,000
Islands in the west, the Line Islands in the east and
people per annum.
the Phoenix Islands in the middle. Most of the
islands are coral atolls that have maximum The highest population density is on South Tarawa
elevations below 2 to 3 metres above sea level with atoll in the Gilbert group, which is where the
one exception, Banabam which is an elevated coral country’s capital (Tarawa) is located. With an area
island that rises to 81 metres above sea level, and of just 15.8 square kilometres, South Tarawa houses
was once a rich source of phosphate. 48.7% of Kiribati’s population, giving a population
density of about 3,250 people per square kilometre.
Population pressure and lifestyle choices in South
Tarawa have already strained the area’s scarce
water resources, as the consumption of
groundwater stores from the small underground
lenses is exceeding the capacity of the groundwater
to recharge.

6.17 Most islands in Kiribati are long, thin atolls like Tarawa, the
north-east section of which is shown here near Abaokoro. On
the inside of the curved atolls, there are shallow lagoons with
coral reefs, while deep, open ocean is found on the outsides of
the atolls.

6.19 Although Kiribati’s main freshwater water reserves are

stored as sub-surface groundwater, some small ponds such as
this one in Teaoraereke supplement water resources for
residents in small communities.

High population density in Tarawa also results in a

build-up of non-biodegradable wastes as Kiribati
has no waste collection service or sanitation
management. Wastes from traditional foods were
discarded on the beaches where they would
decompose or be washed away by the ocean.
However, a switch in preferences towards imported
processed foods means that wastes no longer
6.18 Most of the islands in Kiribati rise only a metre or two
decompose, and Tarawa’s beaches are now
above the ocean. This low tide view shows some small islands
that form part of Tarawa Atoll in the Abatao district. typically covered by large quantities of rubbish

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Kiribati’s climate
The climate of Kiribati is hot, humid and tropical
with an average air temperature of 28.3˚C that does
not vary by more than 1C˚ throughout the year.
The average annual rainfall in Tarawa is 2,100mm,
most of which falls during the wet season that lasts
from November to April. However, the climate of
Kiribati is highly variable. In dry years, Tarawa
may receive as little as 150mm of rain, and in wet
years, rainfall may be as high as 4,000mm. The
highly porous coral soils in Kiribati cannot retain
moisture, so the highly variable rainfall poses
6.20 Rubbish on the beach at Bairiki, Kiribati’s political and problems for water availability and water quality,
administrative capital. The causeway in the background and thus people’s health and livelihoods.
connects Bairiki Island to Betio island, which is where the main
port is located. The main reason for Kiribati’s variable climate is
fluctuations in the ENSO (El Niño-Southern
(including plastics) that cause water pollution and
Oscillation). Because of its equatorial location, I-
are responsible for an increase in diarrhoeal and
Kiribati islands become significantly warmer and
vector-borne diseases.
wetter during an El Niño event, but cooler and
The second most populated atoll is Kiritimati drier during a La Niña event. The combination of
(pronounced Christmas) in the Line Islands. With Kiribati’s fragile economy and fragile environment
an area of 388 square kilometres, Kiritimati is the mean the country is highly vulnerable to both El
world’s largest coral atoll, and it has a population Niño and La Niña events, with little resilience or
of 6,500 people. capacity to manage or absorb climate hazard
events.
Kiribati’s economy
Kiribati is a fairly poor country with a GNI per
Impacts and risks from climate
capita of US$3,140. There is negligible agriculture change
because of the poor quality of soils on the coral
Perhaps no country in the world is more threatened
atolls, although there is some subsistence
by the impact of climate change than Kiribati. The
production of coconuts, breadfruit, pandanus and
climate of Kiribati is changing and is expected to
swamp taro. About 80% of the population is
continue changing in the future. The changes that
unemployed. Most I-Kiribati who are employed
have been observed in Kiribati’s climate are
work in public service jobs for the government, the
detailed in table 6.2, together with the climate
majority of which are funded by foreign aid. The
changes that are projected in future decades.
country has three main sources of foreign income:
foreign aid (mainly from Australia, New Zealand The cause of most of the changes detailed in table
and Taiwan), fishing rights that permit foreign 6.2 can be traced back to increasing concentrations
vessels (mainly from Japan, South Korea and of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The
Taiwan) to fish in I-Kiribati waters, and remittances enhanced greenhouse effect is causing climates to
from I-Kiribati living overseas. warm around the world, including Kiribati.
Despite its location in the Pacific Ocean, Kiribati For I-Kiribati people, the most alarming
has almost no tourism. This is because there are no consequences of climate change relate to rising sea
attractive beaches, no diving facilities, infrequent levels, caused by the combined impact of thermal
transport connections with other countries and expansion of warming water and the melting of
poor infrastructure. Kiribati has been categorised glaciers and ice sheets. As shown in table 6.3, sea
by the United Nations as both a ‘Small Island levels in Kiribati are expected to rise between 16cm
Developing State’ and a ‘Least Developed and 58cm by 2090, depending on the level of
Country’.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
Table 6.2
Climate trends observed in Kiribati from 1950 to the present, and projected climate trends through the 21st century
Climate
Observed climate trends in Kiribati since 1950 Projected climate trends in Kiribati to 2100
variable
Surface air temperature will continue to increase (very high
confidence). Under a high emission scenario:
Annual and seasonal mean air temperatures are getting warmer: • Annual and seasonal mean temperature will increase by
0.3-1.3C˚ in the Gilbert Islands and by 0.4-1.2C˚ in the
• Maximum temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.18C˚ per
Phoenix and Line Islands by 2030 (high confidence).
Air temperature decade.
• Annual temperature increases could be greater than 3C˚ by
• Annual and seasonal minimum air temperatures have increased
2090 (moderate confidence).
slightly more than the increase in maximum air temperatures.
As there is no consistency in projections for future ENSO
activity, it is not possible to project interannual variability in
temperature.
Water temperatures have risen since the 1970s: Sea-surface temperature will continue to increase (very high
• in the Gilbert Islands by approximately 0.15C˚ per decade. confidence):
• in the Line Islands by approximately 0.10C˚ per decade. • Sea-surface temperatures will increase by 0.6-0.8C˚ by 2035
Sea-surface
• in the Phoenix Islands by approximately 0.12C˚ per decade. and by 1.2-2.7C˚ by 2100.
temperature
Since 1950 the rise has been gradual in the waters around the As there is no consistency in projections for future ENSO
Gilbert Islands, but it has been variable from one decade to the activity, it is not possible to project interannual variability in sea-
next in the Line and Phoenix Islands. surface temperature.
Annual rainfall has increased: Rainfall patterns will change:
• Annual and wet season rainfall has increased for Kiritimati, but • Wet season, dry season and annual average rainfall will
there have been no changes in the dry season. increase (high confidence).
Rainfall
• At Tarawa, rainfall measurements show no clear trends. • Annual and seasonal mean rainfall will increase (>5%) by
• At both Kiritimati and Tarawa, rainfall has varied substantially 2030. The majority of models simulate a large increase
from year to year. (>15%) by 2090 (low confidence).
• Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) rarely pass through Kiribati. There will be more extreme rainfall and more very hot days:
• Between 1969-70 and 2009-10, three hurricanes passed within • The intensity and frequency of days with extreme heat and
400 kilometres of Arorae Island in western Kiribati and three warm nights will increase, and cooler weather will decline
Extreme events
hurricanes passed within 400 kilometres of Caroline Island in (very high confidence).
eastern Kiribati. • The intensity and frequency of days with extreme rainfall will
• Storm surges and extreme sea levels occur occasionally. increase (high confidence).
The incidence of drought will decrease (moderate confidence):
The impact of droughts, usually associated with La Niña, can be • In the Gilbert, Phoenix and Line Islands, mild drought will
severe in Kiribati; for example: occur approximately seven to eight times every 20 years by
2030, decreasing to six to seven times by 2090 (low
• In 1971, 1985, 1998 and 1999 annual rainfall was less than
confidence).
750mm.
Droughts • The frequency of moderate drought is projected to decrease
• The drought from April 2007 to early 2009 severely affected
from two or three times every 20 years by 2030 to once or
the southern islands of Kiribati and Banaba. During this period,
twice by 2090 (low confidence).
groundwater turned brackish and the leaves of most plants
turned yellow. • Severe drought will occur approximately once or twice every
20 years by 2030, decreasing to once every 20 years by
2055 and 2090 (low confidence).
Mean sea level is projected to continue to rise (very high
confidence):
Sea level has risen: • Mean sea level will rise by approximately 5-15cm by 2030
and 20-60cm by 2090 under the higher emissions scenario
• Sea level measured by satellite altimeters has risen by 1 to 4mm
(moderate confidence).
per year (global average is 3.2 ± 0.4mm per year).
Sea level • The sea level rise combined with natural year-to-year
• Sea level rise naturally fluctuates from year to year at levels of
changes will increase the impact of storm surges and coastal
about 260mm. There are also decade-to-decade fluctuations.
flooding.
These fluctuations over both timeframes are the result of
phenomena such as ENSO. Scientists warn that due to the melting of large ice sheets such
as those in Antarctica and Greenland, rise could possibly be
larger than predicted. However, not enough is currently known
to make predictions confidently.
The acidification of the ocean will continue to increase (very
high confidence):
• The annual maximum aragonite saturation state will reach
values below 3.5 by about 2045 in the Gilbert Islands, by
Ocean acidification has been increasing:
about 2030 in the Line Islands, and by about 2055 in the
Ocean • Since the 18th century, the ocean has been slowly getting more Phoenix Islands. The aragonite saturation will continue to
acidification acidic. The aragonite saturation state has declined from about decline thereafter (moderate confidence).
4.5 in the late 18th century to an observed value of about 3.9 ±
• Ocean pH will decrease by -0.1 units by 2035 and by -0.2 to
0.1 in 2000.
-0.3 units by 2100.
• Coral reefs are projected to degrade progressively with
losses of live coral of >25% by 2035 and >50% by 2050 due
to rising sea-surface temperatures and more acidic oceans.
Source: Government of Kiribati (2014) Kiribati Joint Implementation Plan for Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (KJIP), 2014-2023. pp.21, 23

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Table 6.3
Climate change projections for Kiribati under different emissions scenarios
Time frame
Climate variable and emission
scenario 2030 2055 2090

Temperature (change relative to the average of the period 1989 to 1999, Kiribati recorded data) in Celsius degrees C˚.

Low emissions 0.2 - 1.2 0.6 - 1.9 1.0 - 2.4

Medium emissions 0.2 - 1.4 0.9 - 2.3 1.6 - 3.5
High emissions 0.3 - 1.3 1.0 - 2.2 2.2 - 3.8
Sea-level rise (change relative to the average of the period 1989 to 1999) in centimetres.

Low emissions 4 - 13 9 - 25 16 - 45
Medium emissions 5 - 14 10 - 28 19 - 57
High emissions 5 - 14 10 - 29 20 - 58
Source: Government of Kiribati (2014) Kiribati Joint Implementation Plan for Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (KJIP), 2014-2023. pp.24.

greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

For a country that has an average elevation of just
two metres (200cm), the possibility of a rise in sea
level of 58cm is alarming as it would be enough to
make the country uninhabitable.

Even today, Tarawa experiences changes in sea

level of about 0.5 metres, especially during tidal
fluctuations that are caused by ENSO events.
When high tides combine with spring tides, the sea
level can rise as much as 2.8 metres, flooding most
of the country and damaging infrastructure and
property. Erosion of roads, houses, seawalls and
other infrastructure is a growing problem in
6.21 The seawall at Betio Harbour was breached by wave Kiribati.
attack during a storm, allowing waves to intrude and erode the
Regular diurnal tidal fluctuations already flood
coral sand foundations of this factory. As the sand was eroded,
the factory partially collapsed. parts of some villages at high tide twice each day,
making cultivation impossible because of the salt
water and rendering transport difficult as residents
have to walk waist-deep in seawater to get from
one part of a village to another. Several houses
have been destroyed during storm surges by wave
attack, and many residents have been forced to
build sea walls to protect their homes from further
wave attack. Rising sea levels are not only a flood
threat, but higher seas add energy to waves during
every storm that lead to widespread erosion of land
and undermining of houses and roads.

Rising sea levels is affecting Kiribati’s scarce water

reserves. Kiribati has no surface dams or water
reservoirs, and many people collect rainwater from
6.22 This house in Bikenikora village was destroyed by wave
attack after the seawall that was built protect it from wave attack their roofs in tanks. Many poorer residents cannot
was undermined and destroyed. The remains of the seawall afford a rainwater tank and they rely on rainwater
can be still seen in the background.

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6.23 Large sections of Buota Island are covered by seawater,

even at low tide.

6.24 During every high tide in Bikenikora, seawater floods

much of the central area of the village, forcing residents to wade
6.25 This brackish pond in Teaoraereke village used to be a
through water that waist-high to get from one side of the village
store of freshwater until rising sea levels forced salt water into
to the other.
the pond.
from small land depressions. The porous, infertile,
coral-based soils of Kiribati cannot hold water, so
there are very few natural depressions where
freshwater can be stored. Unfortunately, as sea
levels rise, the hydraulic pressure causes saltwater
encroachment as the nearby seawater rises and
seeps through the porous soils into the freshwater
ponds, salinising the water and making it unusable
for human or animal consumption. Saltwater
encroachment also enables saline water to seep into
the root zone of trees and plants, and this has
caused the death of some palm trees in Kiribati,
most of which are food-producing species.

Rising sea levels also pose a tsunami threat to 6.26 The tall stumps are palm trees in Bikenikora village that
Kiribati. Although Kiribati is not in an earthquake were killed when salt water seeped through the sand into the
zone, plate boundaries known as the Ring of Fire root zone. Seepage occurred as rising sea levels gave the
surround the Pacific Ocean. An earthquake saline ocean water increased gravitational force to penetrate
the nearby sand.
anywhere on the Ring of Fire could trigger a

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
tsunami that would completely obliterate Kiribati Responses to climate change
as sea levels rise. The risk of exposure to tsunamis
varies from island to island in Kiribati as the atolls With its high rate of unemployment and low rate of
are widely dispersed and the shape of the secondary education, Kiribati’s population is
surrounding seabed varies enormously. poorly placed to show initiative in responding to
the threats and risks posed by climate change.
Ocean acidification associated with climate change
Therefore, much of the drive to address the
is another problem for Kiribati. Almost all
challenges of climate change begins with the I-
Kiribati’s land area has been formed from coral
Kiribati Government.
atolls, which are calcium carbonate that dissolves in
acid. The seas around Kiribati are becoming more Anote Tong, who was Kiribati’s President from
acidic, and this is shown by a decline in the 2003 to 2016, has been a passionate advocate of
aragonite saturation rate. Aragonite is one of the Kiribati’s plight on the international stage, where
two common, naturally occurring forms of calcium he announced that I-Kiribati people will begin
carbonate, and it is formed by several biological leaving Kiribati as climate refugees in 2020 when
and physical processes that include secretions from he predicted rising sea levels would be making life
marine organisms. too difficult. Under Tong’s presidency, Kiribati
purchased an area of 20 square kilometres of land
Seawater aragonite saturation rates above 4.0 are
optimal for coral growth and for the development
of healthy reef ecosystems. Aragonite saturation
values of 3.5 to 4.0 are adequate for coral growth,
and values between 3.0 and 3.5 are marginal. Coral
reef ecosystems are not found when seawater
aragonite saturation states fall below 3.0. Kiribati’s
aragonite saturation rate has declined from 4.5 in
the late 1700s to 3.9 today, and it is expected to
decline further to less than 3.5 in the coming
decades. This will threaten the growth of coral
that sustains the atolls, weakening resistance to
erosion and rising sea levels.

Kiribati experiences drought conditions during La

Niña events as the clouds which often cover 6.27 A sandbag-and-cement seawall (background) has been
partially washed away, so local residents have responded by
Kiribati migrate to the south-west, leaving a dry air
erecting a barrier of old, disused metal gas bottles to absorb
mass over Kiribati. When Kiribati experiences wave energy. This seawall is in Teaoraereke village.
droughts, groundwater turns brackish (slightly
saline) as seawater intrudes, and many of the
country’s fruit-bearing palm trees die. If future
predictions are correct, the frequency and intensity
of droughts should decline in coming decades.

The effects of climate change and climate-related

disasters are felt first and most acutely by
vulnerable and marginalised members of the
population, including women, children, youth,
people with disabilities, minorities, the elderly and
the urban poor. Violence against women and
children is widespread within I-Kiribati society, and
this is exacerbated in times of disaster when normal
social protections may be missing or paralysed. 6.28 Wave action has undercut a sea wall that was protecting
the main road between Bonriki and Bairiki.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
in Fiji in 2014 as a contingency refuge for I-Kiribati defence against flooding and erosion by wave
people who may be forced from their homes by attack. On the other hand, they are also seen as a
rising sea levels. temporary response because they cannot hold back
rising seas for ever. Some I-Kiribati people
A significant response by the I-Kiribati Government
therefore argue that it is a misguided and futile use
to rising sea levels has been to co-ordinate an
of scarce financial resources to build seawalls for a
extensive program of building seawalls. Most of
country that will be underwater within a century.
the seawalls in Kiribati are made from bags of sand
that are cemented together by teams of local people One of the problems with seawalls is that they
who are brought together and employed on a short- reflect wave energy back to the ocean, and this can
term basis. Other seawalls are built without aggravate erosion in front of the seawall. As the
government co-ordination by local communities. Shoreline Protection Guidelines of Kiribati state:
These community seawalls are usually more basic, “Seawalls can sometimes increase the rate of
being built from freely available materials such as erosion in front of the seawall due to wave
lumps of coral, pandanus branches and leaves, old reflection and at the ends of the structure caused by
rubber tyres and discarded bottles. wave focussing. When all available sediment has
been removed in front of the wall, down drift areas
The seawalls are a controversial solution to rising
will no longer receive sediment and erosion may be
sea levels. Many people see them as an essential

6.29 This seawall on the northern side of Betio Island has been 6.31 Workers repair a section of seawall that has been
washed away, allowing waves to erode a substantial area of undermined, forcing it to collapse near Red Beach, Betio Island.
land that was behind the wall.

6.30 This seawall at Bairiki has been almost completely washed 6.32 A large section of seawall has collapsed in the face of
away, allowing the ocean water to inundate land that was wave attack, and a large group of about 30 workers is filling
previously about one metre above sea level. bags with sand before sealing the bags and cementing them in
place to built a new seawall.

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6.33 A new seawall being built on Betio Island. 6.34 Mangroves have been planted at Bonriki to stabilise the
shoreline in the face of rising sea levels.
accelerated as a result of building the wall”. This
erosion may cause a seawall to become Almost 40,000 mangroves have been planted in
undermined by waves, causing it to collapse, Kiribati under the Government’s supervision using
which explains why repairing damaged seawalls is plants that were jointly funded by the World Bank,
a significant, ongoing activity in Kiribati. GEF (the Global Environment Facility), AusAID
(the Australian Agency for International
The people in one village on Abaiang Island near Development) and the New Zealand Aid program.
Tarawa, Aonobuaka, have made a community-wide
decision to ban seawalls because of the erosion In an effort to co-ordinate Kiribati’s response to the
they caused to neighbouring properties. Rather threats posed by climate change, the Kiribati
than building seawalls, households in Aonobuaka Government has developed a comprehensive
strategy to identify and address the perceived risks.
have agreed to construct fences using tree
branches, palm fronds and coconut fibre string to Known as the Kiribati Joint National Action Plan on
protect their beaches. Although these are less Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
effective in preventing beach erosion and are easily Implementation Plan (KJIP), the strategy covers the
damaged by wave attack, they are easily replaced period to 2023 with the stated goal of “increasing
and they have solved the social friction and resilience through sustainable climate change
disputes that were caused when one family’s adaptation and disaster risk reduction using a
seawall caused erosion of their neighbours’ land. whole of country approach”.

Coral atolls in Kiribati are long, thin formations that The KJIP identifies 12 major strategies (with the
curve around a shallow lagoon on one side and face estimated percentage that each strategy will cost
shown in parentheses, allowing 2% for flexibility):
the open ocean on the other side. On the shallow
lagoon side of atolls, an alternative to seawall • Strengthening good governance, policies,
construction is planting mangroves. Mangroves strategies and legislation (6%);
slow down and disperse incoming waves, • Improving knowledge and information
absorbing wave energy and causing sediments to generation, management and sharing (5%);
be deposited around the plants. An additional • Strengthening and greening the private sector,
benefit of planting mangroves is that they provide a including small-scale business (4%);
habitat for marine species that I-Kiribati people • Increasing water and food security with
depend on for their livelihoods. They contribute to integrated sector-specific approaches and
the carbon cycle by absorbing carbon dioxide, they promoting healthy and resilient ecosystems (4%);
• Strengthening health service delivery to address
act as buffers to storm surges and they filter
nutrient runoff from the land, reducing ocean climate change impacts (2%);
pollution. Unlike seawalls, mangroves are also • Promoting sound and reliable infrastructure
relatively maintenance-free. development and land management (50%);

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• Delivering appropriate education, training and CASE STUDY
awareness programs (7%);
• Increasing effectiveness and efficiency of early Turkmenistan
warning and disaster and emergency
management (4%);
Location and demographics
• Promoting the use of sustainable, renewable Turkmenistan is an independent republic located in
sources of energy and energy efficiency (11%); central Asia. It has a long history of trade and
• Strengthening capacity to access finance, monitor settlement, and from the early 1920s until 1991 it
expenditures and maintain strong partnerships was part of the Soviet Union. It spans latitudes
(2%); 35˚N to 43˚N and longitudes 52˚E to 67˚E. The area
• Maintaining the existing sovereignty and unique of the country is just over 491,000 square
identity of Kiribati (1%); and kilometres, and it extends about 650 kilometres
• Enhancing the participation and resilience of from north-to-south and 1,100 kilometres from east-
vulnerable groups (2%). to-west. About 80% of the country’s area is covered
by desert, of which the Karakum Desert is by far
The estimated cost of the KJIP to 2023 is US$75
the largest.
million, almost all of which will be funded through
international aid programs. Significant donors for 60˚E

components of the KJIP include the Asian

Development Bank (ADB), AusAID, the European Kazakhstan
Aral
Union (EU), German Development Co-operation, Sea
Global Climate Change Alliance (SPC), New
Zealand Aid Program, various NGOs such as Plan Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
International, UNDP, UNESCO, UNICEF, and the
40˚N TURKMENISTAN 40˚N
World Bank. Caspian Tajikistan
Ashgabat China
Sea
QUESTION BANK 6B
1. Describe the physical environment of Kiribati. Iran
Afghanistan
2. Explain how the physical environment and the economic 0 100 Pakistan India
Kilometres 60˚E
environment of Kiribati combine to make Kiribati one of the
world’s most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate 6.35 The location of Turkmenistan.
change. The desert area of Turkmenistan is very arid, with
3. With reference to table 6.2, list the evidence that Kiribati’s an average precipitation of 70mm to 150mm per
climate has been changing since 1950. year. Because of the extreme limitations of water
supply, population density in the Karakum Desert
4. With reference to tables 6.2 and 6.3, describe the likely
changes in Kiribati’s climate in the decades ahead.
region averages just 6.5 people per square
kilometre. Turkmenistan is sparsely populated
5. Describe the effects of climate change on I-Kiribati people. overall, with the national average population
6. Why are most responses to the threats of climate change in density being just 12.5 people per square kilometre.
Kiribati led by the Government?
The most densely populated part of Turkmenistan
7. Describe the advantages and disadvantages of seawalls as a is the southern rim of the country, in and near the
way to protect Kiribati against the effects of sea level rise. Kopet Dag Mountains. These mountains rise
8. Outline the advantages and disadvantages of planting sharply from the flat desert to the north to peaks as
mangroves to protect Kiribati’s coastline against rising sea high as 2,900 metres. The Kopet Dag Mountains
levels. mark the border between Turkmenistan and Iran,
providing many elevated valleys that are home to
9. Describe the main features of the KJIP.
both Turkmens and members of smaller ethnic
10. Outline the ways that a poor country such as Kiribati can groups. The mountainous region is not as arid as
afford to implement a strategy such as the KJIP. the deserts of Turkmenistan, and Turkmenistan’s

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capital city, Ashgabat, is situated in the foothills of
the Kopet Dag Mountains. Ashgabat has a
population of 1.1 million people. The total
population of Turkmenistan is 5.9 million people,
of whom 85% are ethnic Turkmen, 5% are Uzbek,
4% are Russian, while the remaining 6% belong to
minority ethnic groups.

Females make up just over half of Turkmenistan’s

population (50.8%). The median age of
Turkmenistan’s population is 25.9 years, with 31%
of the population being aged 14 years and below.
The percentage of young people is declining as the
country’s birth rate slows down; it is now 24.6
6.36 Irrigated cotton fields near Mary in eastern Turkmenistan.
births per 1,000 people, a substantial fall from its
rate in 1987 of 36.4 births per 1,000 people and the export revenues have been spent by the
rate in 1960 of 44.7 births per 1,000 people. The government on urban renewal projects, including a
dependency ratio in Turkmenistan is 54.9% and major program to re-build Ashgabat with white,
average life expectancy is 68.0 years. flood-lit marble buildings and wide boulevards.

Although Turkmenistan has a wealth of ancient

Turkmenistan’s economy monuments and ruined cities, tourism is a very
With a GNI per capita of US$6,740, Turkmenistan’s minor component of the economy. A significant
average wealth is more than double that of Kiribati. factor discouraging tourists from Turkmenistan is
The basis of Turkmenistan’s economy is carbon- the rigid system used to issue visas, which must be
based energy resources. Turkmenistan possesses obtained before entering the country, based on an
the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas individual letter of invitation from a person or
and substantial oil resources. These commodities registered company in Turkmenistan. Recent
make up about two-thirds of Turkmenistan’s attempts to promote medical tourism in the Black
exports, with 40% of exports being natural gas, and Sea town of Awaza, near Turkmenbashi, have not
oil and petroleum comprising 25%. yet been successful.

A further 20% of Turkmenistan’s exports are made Turkmenistan’s climate

up of cotton and cotton products; Turkmenistan is
the world’s ninth largest cotton producer. Only Most of Turkmenistan experiences a harsh, desert
about 3% of Turkmenistan’s land is naturally fertile climate. Temperatures range from extreme heat
and well-watered enough for cultivation. However, (48˚C to 50˚C) to extreme cold (-10˚C to 0˚C) as a
during the Soviet era, vast desert areas of consequence of the inland location, where there is
Turkmenistan were irrigated and turned into cotton no moderating effect from any nearby large ocean.
growing areas, and the industry continues today Summers, which last from May to September, are
despite serious environmental problems (such as hot and dry, while winters are cool to mild and dry.
salinisation of the soils) that result from the Average annual precipitation varies from 300mm
antiquated systems of irrigation employed. per annum in the Kopet Dag Mountains to about
Turkmenistan’s heavy reliance on irrigation makes 70mm per annum in the dry north-west of the
it highly vulnerable to the impact of climate country. Most rain falls during the cooler months
change. of the year between October and April. Drought is
Very little of the wealth from Turkmenistan’s oil the country’s normal condition, and the average
and gas revenue filters through to the general annual precipitation for the country as a whole is
population, although Turkmenistan’s petrol and just 191mm. Ashgabat, which lies at the foot of the
gas prices are among the lowest in the world Kopet Dag Mountains in the far south of
because of government subsidies. Much of the Turkmenistan, is thus relatively well watered with
an average annual rainfall of 225mm.

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Surprisingly for a country in Central Asia, the
pattern of Turkmenistan’s precipitation has been
linked to ENSO events in the Pacific Ocean. Cold
ENSO phases (La Niña) usually result in drought
conditions in Turkmenistan, while warm ENSO
phases (El Niño) result in increased precipitation
and more vigorous growth of natural vegetation.

As a result of the arid climate, about 80% of

Turkmenistan’s area has no perennial surface water
flow. All the country’s main rivers are in the south,
in and near the Kopet Dag Mountains. The water
from these rivers is fed into a network of canals and
diverted to use as irrigation water for growing
cotton. 6.37 The white areas on these cultivated fields near Ashgabat
indicate areas where sub-surface salt has risen to the surface as
Desertification is occurring in Turkmenistan. A a result of applying excessive irrigation water. The white areas
major cause of desertification is the unsound now have a surface crust of salt, making them unusable for
cultivation. The brown strip in the foreground is the Karakum
irrigation practices that are causing salinisation of
Canal, the large irrigation canal from which the water was taken
the soil. Applying excessive quantities of water to for irrigation.
the fields enables sub-surface salt to rise to the
average temperatures will be between 4.2C˚ and
surface where it kills the plants and converts the
6.1C˚ warmer than the present. During the same
soils into unusable salt marshes and clay pans. It is period, UNDP predicts that most parts of the
estimated that the area of these salt flats in country will become even drier, with average
Turkmenistan now totals about 10,000 square annual precipitation expected to drop by between
kilometres, and Turkmenistan’s biological 15% and 56% by 2100. An exception is in the
productivity is said to have declined by between mountain areas in southern Turkmenistan, where
30% and 50% in recent decades because of this rainfall is expected to increase. However, water
environmental mismanagement. shortages will remain a problem for the country as
a whole, and the shortages will be exacerbated by a
Impacts and risks from climate rise in evaporation rates due to the warmer
change temperatures. The UNDP predicts that evaporation
rates will rise by about 48% by 2100.
Turkmenistan’s climate has a long history of
change. Landforms in its arid areas show evidence The UNDP predicts that the frequency and
of erosion in wetter climates, and analysis of intensity of both droughts and floods in
archeological pollens show that plant species once Turkmenistan will increase in coming decades. As
grew in Turkmenistan that could not survive in a result of these changes, it is predicted that the
today’s arid conditions. flow rates for most of Turkmenistan’s rivers will
decrease by 30% by 2050, although the reduction in
Measurements since the early 1900s show that
flow will be smaller (at 15%) for the country’s
along with the rest of Central Asia, Turkmenistan’s
largest river, the Amu Darya.
temperatures are rising steadily. In the period
since 1931, temperatures in northern Turkmenistan The problems caused by climate change are not
have risen by 0.6C˚ and by 0.4C˚ in southern restricted to the flat deserts of Turkmenistan. In the
Turkmenistan. The current rate of temperature Nokhur region of the Kopet Dag Mountains,
increase is 0.18C˚ to 0.20C˚ per decade. Associated increased rainfall is causing severe erosion of the
with these changes, the number of days exceeding slopes of the valleys and gorges that are used by
40˚C has been increasing steadily since 1983. ethnic minority groups to graze their sheep, goats
and cattle. Erosion of the hillsides is also degrading
The UNDP predicts that this increase will continue
the quality of the mountain streams that flow
and accelerate until at least 2100, by which time

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The IPCC supports the ND-GAIN conclusion that
Turkmenistan is highly vulnerable to climate
change and climate variability. Turkmenistan’s
National Climate Change strategy states:
“Turkmenistan is among those countries which are
more vulnerable to climate change effects, experiencing
difficulties mainly in the fields of agriculture, water
resources, public health and natural ecosystems.”

In a similar vein, a 2014 academic paper on climate

change in Turkmenistan by Elena Lioubimtseva,
Jahan Kariyeva and Geoffrey Henebry stated that:
“Climate change and variability affect arid ecosystems
and their productivity through the changing patterns
6.38 Heavily eroded hillsides in the Nokhur region of the Kopet
in temperature and precipitation, droughts, floods,
Dag Mountains, southern Turkmenistan.
heavy winds, and other extreme events. Water
through the valleys, filling them with sediment that availability and food security of arid and semi-arid
reduce their suitability as sources of drinking water. zones has been always unstable due to their low
natural productivity and high variability in both
The four indicators of climate change risk outlined
rainfall amounts and intensities. The increasing
earlier in this chapter show contrasting degrees of
pressures caused by the global climate change on
risk for Turkmenistan, reflecting the different
livelihoods deteriorate the human vulnerability to the
assumptions and emphases of each indicator. The
on-going desertification processes and natural climatic
CRI suggests Turkmenistan is at low risk from
variability. The impacts of climate change in desert
climate change, the CCVI concludes that
countries, such as Turkmenistan, are likely to lead to
Turkmenistan is at low-to-medium risk, the CVI
still larger populations being affected by water scarcity
places Turkmenistan at medium risk, and the ND-
and the risk of declining crop yields and increase the
GAIN matrix concludes that Turkmenistan faces a
risk of environmental migrations and political
high level of risk because it is vulnerable to the
conflicts caused by the decline of resources that are
impact of climate change and it has a low capacity
important to sustain livelihoods”.
to respond to the impact of climate change.
Economic activities in Turkmenistan are
120 contributing significantly to the enhanced
greenhouse effect (unlike Kiribati, which suffers
t ho u sa nd s o f k i lot on n es of CO 2 e quival e nt

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 6.40 As a major producer of energy resources, Turkmenistan
produces significant quantities of greenhouse gases in facilities
6.39 Total greenhouse gas emissions in Turkmenistan, 1970 to
such as the Turkmenbashi Complex of Oil Refineries, seen here
2017 (in thousands of kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent).
Source: World Bank data. on the outskirts of Turkmenbashi in western Turkmenistan.

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the consequences of climate change but has almost Unlike Kiribati, where vulnerability from climate
no activities that cause anthropogenic climate change is mainly due to sea level rise,
change). Turkmenistan’s greenhouse gas emissions Turkmenistan’s vulnerability arises mainly from
have tripled since 1970, largely from oil and gas land use and land cover changes. Turkmenistan’s
production, agricultural industries and transport. declining precipitation has resulted in droughts
that now last as long as a decade at the time, and
Much of Turkmenistan’s industry and transport
these droughts are reducing the vegetation cover in
uses old technology that is inefficient and produces
the country’s extensive desert regions. Reduced
large volumes of pollutants. Because Turkmenistan
vegetation cover is destabilising the desert sands,
has such large reserves of oil and natural gas, there
increasing wind-blown erosion and the frequency
has not really been any financial incentive to
of sand storms.
develop cleaner alternative energy sources such as
solar power and wind energy. Furthermore, the Responses to climate change
low price of petroleum in Turkmenistan (less than
US$0.30 per litre) does not encourage conservation Farmers are finding they must adapt to
of fuel. Turkmenistan’s changing climate. Following the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, agricultural
production in Turkmenistan changed dramatically.
Cotton production, which relies heavily on
irrigation water, has decreased by about 20%, and
its importance in the agricultural sector fell from
43% in 1992 to 10% today. During the same period,
cereal production rose by about 800%, with its
importance in agricultural production rising from
12% in 1992 to 45% today. Large increases in the
production of fruits, vegetables and livestock also
occurred, so in overall terms, agricultural
production has doubled since 1992.

The expansion of agricultural areas and production

in Turkmenistan has occurred at a time when
6.41 This small sandstorm in Gonur, eastern Turkmenistan, has precipitation has declined and evaporation rates
resulted from destabilisation of the surface sand when
have risen. Climate change is therefore forcing
vegetation has died back due to rising temperatures and
reduced precipitation. farmers to rely even more heavily on scarce

6.42 This road through the town of Iyerbent has been covered 6.43 This unnamed lake in central Turkmenistan is an example
by a large sand drift, forcing vehicles to curve around and drive of unintended consequences of water management. It is not a
over the edge of the moving dune. Unstable sand such as this natural lake, but it formed after a leak in the Karakum Canal fed
represent a significant hazard as they cover houses and small water into an underground aquifer, which surfaced north of the
buildings. town of Bokurdak, filling the depression with water.

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irrigation water from the Amu Darya to sustain A major consequence of climate change in
their production. The Amu Darya flows from the Turkmenistan has been the rise in sand storms as
mountains of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and natural vegetation cover has dwindled. In an effort
Kyrgyzstan through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to address this problem, dune areas are being
to the Aral Sea. Extracting increasing volumes of stabilised with reed cells to stop the sand blowing
water from the Amu Darya for irrigation reduces across roads and villages. In Ashgabat and its
the flow of the river as it flows to Uzbekistan, and surrounds, large areas are being planted with trees
this is a major contributor to the shrinkage of the to stabilise the soil, provide shade and increase the
Aral Sea on the border of Uzbekistan and humidity of the atmosphere, partially offsetting the
Kazakhstan. reduced precipitation and increased evaporation
rates.
Fortunately, rising temperatures and increased
precipitation in the mountains of Afghanistan, An important response to climate change in
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are increasing the Amu Turkmenistan involves education, especially
Darya’s discharge volume. Less fortunately, higher among ethnic minority groups that receive less
evaporation rates in Turkmenistan mean that water formal education in schools. At least 4,000 Nokhuri
requirements for farmers are expected to rise by people in the Kopet Dag mountains are being
30% to 40% in coming decades. Unless the trained to develop and implement water
efficiency of irrigation systems improves, it is harvesting techniques such as slope terracing,
expected that Turkmenistan will face a significant small rainwater collection dams, contour and stone
water deficit that may cause the country’s food bunds and mulching. The aim of this education is
production to become unsustainable. to help local people improve soil moisture
conditions and offset the impact of slope
degradation.

6.44 Reed cells on a sand dune in the Karakum Desert, central

Turkmenistan.
6.46 Nokhuri goats grazing in the Kopet Dag Mountains.

In an effort to co-ordinate efforts that address the

challenges of climate change, the Government of
Turkmenistan has developed a National Climate
Change Strategy for the period to 2030. The key
objective of the Strategy is “the identification and
assessment of threats to Turkmen development and
security caused by climate change, including threats to
economy, infrastructure, water management, public life
and health, and ensuring reasonable prudence in
planning and implementation of measures to protect the
Turkmen nation and state from adverse effects of climate
change.”
6.45 A team of workers plants new trees in Ashgabat.

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The Strategy’s goal is to ensure sustainable
development of Turkmenistan, mitigating the
effects of climate change while also fostering the
country’s economic and social growth.

Key points of Turkmenistan’s Climate Change

Strategy include the following:

Energy
• Enhance energy efficiency, energy and resource
savings in all sectors of the economy.
• Develop alternative sources of energy.
• Promote technological modernization.
• Diversify the economy to enhance energy
security. 6.47 Public transport is poorly developed in Turkmenistan,
even in the capital city, Ashgabat, where private car transport is
Industry supported by lavish road construction.
• Develop energy saving programs.
• Improve the system of recording energy
consumption in factories.
• Promote modernisation of existing technologies
and optimisation of organizational structures.
• Introduce energy management.
• Train personnel and give them more motivation
to save energy.

Transport
• Support development of public transport,
including the development of light railway
transport for the suburbs of large cities and
towns.
• Optimise transport flows to prevent congestion;
develop transport infrastructure, including new 6.48 Even the public transport in Ashgabat consumes large
amounts of energy, as the waiting sheds at bus stops are air
junctions and perhaps multi-level traffic.
conditioned.
• Renovate the motor vehicle fleet, get cars
repaired more quickly, improve motor transport • Promote public awareness of climate change and
import regulations to take account of energy increase activities that motivate people’s concern
efficiency. about climate change.
• Transition to cleaner and more cost-efficient fuel • Ensure household appliances are certified to
types, including compressed natural gas or ensure energy efficiency.
liquefied petroleum gas.
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Promote the transition of railway transport to
• Introduce waste sorting and disposal systems,
electric traction.
appropriate information and awareness raising
The Economy activities among the population.
• Improve the performance and efficiency of • Introduce municipal and industrial waste
municipal heating supply systems. recycling.
• Renovate people’s housing with due account for • Purify and recycle waste water.
climate change. • Compost organic wastes.
• Improve construction standards and rules for
Water
buildings to improve energy efficiency and the
• Improve water management.
reliability of heating.

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• Introduce advanced irrigation methods, build
water-storage reservoirs and modernise
hydraulic engineering structures.
• Develop incentives to encourage rational water
consumption.
• Strengthen international co-operation to conserve
and use transboundary waters.

Agriculture
• Optimise the spacing, allocation, and distribution
of agricultural production facilities.
• Make agricultural production more specialized.
• Breed drought-resistant and salt-resistant crops.
• Cultivate salt-resistant plants that can grow on
6.49 The Karakum Canal is Turkmenistan’s largest irrigation
salinised soils to stablise salt pans and desalinise
canal. Farming would be impossible in many areas of
the soils. Turkmenistan without this canal. However, large quantities of
• Strictly implement rotational pasture use. water are lost to seepage and evaporation, and this problem will
• Form pasture protection belts consisting of increase in coming decades if climate change forecasts are
fodder and shrubby plants. accurate.
• Develop pasture farming. The cost of implementing Turkmenistan’s climate
• Introduce methods and practices allowing crops change strategy has not been released publicly.
to be harvested several times a year. Funding will draw upon government finances, new
taxes on the country’s substantial energy exports,
Land uses the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the
• Adopt a law to prevent degradation of pastures, Adaptation Fund (AF), the Green Climate Fund
so they can become major carbon sinks. (GCF), the German International Climate Initiative
• Conduct detailed inventories of soil and land. (IKI) and various other grants and bilateral
• Combat soil salinisation, pasture degradation and agreements.
desertification.
• Control engineering projects that deplete QUESTION BANK 6C
productive the soil layer.
1. How does Turkmenistan’s vulnerability to climate change
Public health and climate change differ from Kiribati’s vulnerability?
• Provide a scientific assessment of the effect of 2. Describe the physical environment of Turkmenistan.
high air temperature on the health of the
3. In what ways has Turkmenistan’s climate been changing?
population in different regions of the country.
• Develop preventive programs to reduce the 4. Describe the predicted changes in Turkmenistan’s climate.
adverse effects of climate change.
5. Describe the impact of climate change on Turkmenistan’s
• Develop specific recommendations on various
people and its economy.
aspects of the population’s adaptation to extreme
changes in weather conditions. 6. Describe three responses of people in Turkmenistan to the
• Develop a National Report to assess climate impact of climate change.
change effects on public health. 7. Choose five bullet points from Turkmenistan’s Climate
• Improve climate monitoring systems to monitor Change Strategy. Rank them in descending order of
hazardous weather phenomena. effectiveness in addressing the consequences of climate
• Improve forecasting of climatic hazards. change. Justify your ranking by explaining the strengths
• Improve early warning systems and bring climate and weaknesses of each of the five strategies.
information to the attention of the population. 8. Do you think Kiribati or Turkmenistan is more at risk from
• Adapt construction standards to ensure climate change? Give reasons to support your answer.
infrastructure is resilient in the face of hazardous
9. Which climate change strategy is more effective in your
climatic phenomena.
opinion – Kiribati’s plan or Turkmenistan’s plan? Explain
• Develop climatic risks insurance. your answer.

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are distributed globally by the circulation patterns
Government-led of the atmosphere.
adaptation and mitigation International geopolitical efforts to try and address
In Kiribati and Turkmenistan, governments are increasing greenhouse gas emissions began in June
attempting to address the threats posed by climate 1992 when the Earth Summit was held in Rio de
change by developing and enacting climate change Janeiro, Brazil. The Earth Summit was organised
action plans. Governments in several countries by the United Nations and attended by
that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change representatives from all member and observer
have attempted to upgrade their capacity and countries. The major outcome of the Earth Summit
readiness to respond by developing such plans. was an international environmental treaty known
Some additional examples of countries where as the United Nations Framework Convention on
governments have developed national climate Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into force
change strategies include Bangladesh, Brazil, in March 1994.
Cambodia, China, Germany, India, the Maldives, The UNFCCC did not set any limits on
Mexico, Myanmar and South Africa. In other anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, nor did it
countries such as Australia, Canada, the United contain any implementation mechanisms. The
Kingdom and the United States, smaller scale UNFCCC instead provided a framework to
climate change plans have been developed by negotiate more binding treaties in the future.
state, provincial or city level governments.
The next phase in geopolitical efforts to control
Global geopolitical efforts greenhouse gas emissions took place in December
1997. World leaders met in Kyoto, Japan, to
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are an consider a binding world treaty that would extend
international concern because the countries that the UNFCCC by placing binding restrictions on
are most impacted may be located a long distance greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon
from the country that produced the emissions. dioxide. At the meeting, it was agreed that carbon
Pollutants that originate in one country, but cross dioxide levels had increased substantially since the
an international border and cause harm to the time of the industrial revolution, and that this trend
environment of another country, are known as was expected to continue. It was also agreed that
transboundary pollutants. Greenhouse gases are humans had been responsible for much of this
examples of transboundary pollutants because they increase.

Binding targets in 2nd period

Binding targets in 1st period

but not the 2nd
Binding targets in 1st period,
but withdrew from treaty
Signatories with no binding
targets
Signed the treaty, but didn’t
commit to any targets
Observer nations that haven’t
signed the treaty

6.50 The status of countries with respect to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2020.

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However, there was disagreement over the degree Under the Doha Amendment, 37 countries agreed
to which the increase in temperatures had been due to meet binding targets: all 28 member countries of
to the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. the European Union, Australia, Belarus, Iceland,
Some countries argued that more greenhouse gases Kazakhstan, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine.
in the future would raise the earth’s temperatures, Three countries that committed to targets in in the
causing the polar ice caps to melt partially, raising first commitment period – Japan, New Zealand and
sea levels and flooding low-lying coastal areas and Russia – did not agree to adopt targets for the
islands. On the other hand, others argued that second period. An additional 66 countries signed
greenhouse gases support plant life, and the animal the Doha Amendment but were not required to set
life that depends upon it, and that plants and any targets for lower greenhouse gas emissions.
animals would thrive with an increase in carbon The Doha Amendment is widely seen as being
dioxide levels.. severely weakened as two significant greenhouse
gas producers – Canada and the United States –
At the end of the Kyoto meeting, 38 industrialised
have not signed the Amendment, and another large
countries committed to cut their emissions of six
producer – China – has not agreed to set any targets
greenhouse gases that were linked to global
for its greenhouse gas emissions.
warming. These countries agreed to meet targets
that would limit their greenhouse gas emissions The Doha meeting was followed by another
during the period 2008 to 2012. Most of the international gathering of UNFCCC members, this
signatory countries were in Europe. Canada also time in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009.
agreed to work towards reducing its greenhouse Although the aim of the meeting was to share
gas production, but subsequently withdrew this information about the actions countries would take
commitment. An agreement was signed, which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the meeting
become known as the Kyoto Protocol, or more failed to achieve any meaningful agreement, other
fully, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations than a non-binding statement saying that “climate
Framework Convention on Climate Change. change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day
and actions should be taken to keep any temperature
The Kyoto Protocol had two commitment periods.
increases to below 2C°.”
The first commitment period covered the initial
period of the Kyoto Protocol from 2008 to 2012. In December 2015, yet another international
The second commitment period, defined in the meeting took place to re-gain the momentum that
Doha Amendment (sometimes referred to as the had been lost in Copenhagen. The new meeting
Kyoto Protocol Extension), was negotiated at an was held in Paris, France, with the aim of
international meeting held in Doha, Qatar, in 2012. negotiating greenhouse gas targets after the second

6.51 Any international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions must get China’s support to be effective, as China is the world’s
largest producer of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Many factories in China still use antiquated, highly polluting technology to
save costs. One example is this industrial complex on the outskirts of Jiayuguan in Gansu province.

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Table 6.4 compromise their economic competitiveness if they
The top 30 anthropogenic greenhouse impose costs to reduce greenhouse gases within
gas producing countries, 2018 their countries that other competitor countries are
% of the % of the not imposing. To address this challenge, the Paris
world’s world’s Agreement included a condition that it would only
Country greenhouse Country greenhouse come into effect if 55 countries that produce 55% of
gas gas
the world’s greenhouse gas emissions committed to
emissions emissions
the Agreement. It was therefore significant that
China 27.51 South Africa 1.13 China (which produces 27.5% of global greenhouse
United States 14.75 France 0.97 gas emissions) and the United States (which
India 6.43 Italy 0.93 produces 14.8%) jointly announced that they would
Russia 4.86 Turkey 0.90
commit to the Agreement in April 2016. The 55%
threshold was achieved in November 2016, making
Japan 2.99 Ukraine 0.83
the Paris Agreement officially binding.
Brazil 2.25 Thailand 0.82
One of the shortcomings of global geopolitical
Germany 1.98 Poland 0.80
efforts to address climate change is that
Indonesia 1.64 Argentina 0.74
government administrations change, and this can
Canada 1.63 Pakistan 0.72 lead to reversals of policy. This happened in 2011
Mexico 1.62 Kazakhstan 0.69 when Canada withdrew from the Kyoto protocol
Iran 1.58 Spain 0.68 following a change of government. If a new
administration in a country that produces
South Korea 1.49 Nigeria 0.67
significant greenhouse gas emissions, such as the
Australia 1.28 Malaysia 0.67
United States, were to decide to withdraw from the
Saudi Arabia 1.21 Iraq 0.63 Paris Agreement, this action could lead to the
United Kingdom 1.20 Egypt 0.60 complete collapse of the treaty.
Source: United Nations Treaty Collection.
Carbon emissions trading and off-
commitment ends in 2020. This meeting was
successful, and the outcome was the Paris setting
Agreement, or the Paris Agreement under the
Once the government of a country has made a
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
commitment to meet emissions reduction targets, it
Change as it was more formally known.
faces the challenge of persuading residents,
By early 2020, 195 countries had signed the treaty, companies and organisations to make the necessary
of which 186 had ratified (confirmed) it. The Paris changes. As changes to manufacturing processes,
Agreement committed signatory countries to work transport arrangements and lifestyles all carry
towards holding the increase in average global financial costs, governments usually try to make
temperatures to 2C˚ above pre-industrial levels, the additional costs palatable. Although
while also making an effort to achieve a tougher government publicity or propaganda can play a
target limiting the global temperature increase to role, this is seldom sufficient to force the significant
1.5C˚ above pre-industrial levels. The Agreement changes that are required if emissions targets are to
also committed signatory countries to become more achieved.
resilient to the impacts of climate change in ways
Carbon emissions trading and off-setting schemes
that do not threaten food production, and to fund
are used by governments in some countries, regions
new ways of reducing greenhouse emissions and
and cities to place a price on carbon emissions.
climate-resilient development.
Placing a price on carbon emissions enables the
One of the challenges of relying on international market to change the way carbon fuels are used
geopolitical agreements is ensuring countries through the price mechanism. The higher the price
adhere to the commitments they have made. This that is placed on carbon emissions, the stronger the
is because some governments believe they may economic force will be to control their output.

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6.52 Existing, emerging and potential regional, national and sub-national carbon pricing initiatives (emissions trading schemes and
taxes). Abbreviations are explained in the caption to figure 6.54. Source:“State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019” State and Trends of
Carbon Pricing (June), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
Carbon emissions are traditionally regarded as is permitted to produce, measured in units called
externalities, which means they are a consequence carbon credits which are the equivalent of one
of industrial, commercial or residential activity that tonne of carbon dioxide. If a company produces
adversely affect others without this impact being less than its permitted limit, it can sell its unused
reflected in market prices. The costs that people carbon credits to other companies that were
pay for carbon emissions show in many ways, such unable to meet their targeted limits. Carbon
as increased health care costs, lost farming credits are bought and sold through auctions,
production due to droughts or flooding, damaged which enables the market to set their financial
property as a result of rising sea levels, and so on. value. In this way, companies that produce less
Carbon pricing is an attempt to measure the carbon gain financially, while those that produce
economic cost of these emissions and tie them to more emissions have to pay. With carbon
their sources so they can be taken into account in emissions trading, the price of each carbon credit
decision-making processes. In this way, carbon is not fixed (like a carbon tax), but is determined
pricing usually shifts the burden of paying for the by supply-and-demand within the market
damage caused by carbon emissions back to the mechanism.
emissions producers.

Rather than governments forcing change through

legislation and penalties, carbon pricing enables
governments to achieve their goals by sending
economic signals to polluters so they can decide
which action to take – cease the polluting activity,
reduce carbon emissions or continue polluting but
pay for it. For governments, carbon pricing is an
inexpensive way of changing society’s behaviour,
with the added benefit of raising revenue that can
be used to fund research into non-carbon sources of
energy, or even subsidise alternative energy sources
so they are more financially competitive with oil,
gas and coal. 6.53 This factory in Malmö, Sweden, has installed solar panels
on its roof to reduce consumption of carbon-based energy.
There are four main systems in which carbon Sweden has had a carbon tax in place since 1991, so this factory
pricing is implemented: will have earned carbon credits for this initiative.

• A carbon tax places a price on carbon by defining • Carbon off-setting usually works together with
a predetermined cost, or taxation rate, on either an ETS, but focusses on enterprises that are
carbon emissions or the carbon component of actively engaged in carbon-reducing activities
fossil fuels. Carbon taxes fix the price of carbon such as forestry projects, wind farms and solar
usage in a country, which is paid as a tax to the energy farms. Carbon-reducing enterprises help
government. Carbon taxes work on the principle a country reduce its carbon emissions, so they
that people and companies try to minimise their earn carbon credits. These carbon credits can be
taxes, and therefore will reduce the use of carbon sold to companies that are struggling to meet
fuels when the additional tax is imposed. their emissions targets, earning additional
revenue for the ‘clean’ enterprise at the expense
• Carbon emissions trading, which is also known
of the polluting company.
as an emissions trading scheme (ETS), cap-and-
trade system (CTS) or Output-Based Pricing • An Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) is a
System (OBPS), is a more flexible system than a taxpayer-funded incentive scheme that pays
carbon tax. Rather than setting a fixed price on companies when they achieve previously agreed
the carbon content of emissions, an ETS sets a carbon emissions reduction targets. Rather than
limit (or cap) on the quantity of carbon emissions imposing a cost on polluting companies that
that each factory (or company, or city, or country) becomes government revenue like an ETS, an

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6.54 Regional, national and sub-national carbon pricing initiatives: share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions covered.
Abbreviations are BC = British Colombia (Canada); CaT = cap and trade; CPM = carbon pricing mechanism; ERF = emissions reduction
fund; ETS = emissions trading scheme; EU = European Union; GGIRCA = greenhouse gas industrial reporting and control act; OBPS +
Output-Based Pricing System; RGGI = regional greenhouse gas initiative in some US states; SGER = specified gas emitters regulation,
UK = United Kingdom. Source:“State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019” State and Trends of Carbon Pricing (June), World Bank, Washington, DC.
Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.

ERF rewards companies that reduce carbon introduced in 2016 to replace a carbon tax that
emissions from a government-funded pool of had been in place from 2012 to 2014. Some
money. The only ERF in place is in Australia, international bodies such as the World Bank
where it is quite controversial, having been regard an ERF as a form of ETS.

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There are variations on these four systems that As figure 6.54 shows, an increasing number of
involve various combinations. For example, hybrid governments are implementing various forms of
models may limit carbon emissions (like a CTS) but carbon pricing as a way of reducing emissions.
set boundaries on how much the price of carbon
credits can vary (like a carbon tax) to prevent the Technology and geo-engineering
price rising too high or dropping too low.
Geo-engineering is deliberate, large-scale
Alternatively, a government may impose an ETS for
manipulation of the Earth’s atmospheric systems to
some sectors of the economy but impose a carbon
mitigate the impact of anthropogenic climate
tax on others.
change. Also known as climate engineering and
A significant concern in most countries that have climate intervention, geo-engineering can be
introduced (or are considering introducing) carbon thought of as human actions that are taken to offset
pricing is the adverse impact it may have on low- the impact of other human actions.
income households. This concern is usually
Geo-engineering in the form of cloud-seeding has
addressed by offering rebates on electricity bills
been used for many years to increase rainfall in
and/or petrol prices for poorer people. Another
drought-stricken areas. Cloud-seeding is done by
concern arises when workers in the fossil fuel
dispersing tiny particles into clouds that function as
industry face unemployment when energy sources
nuclei for raindrop formation. The particles are
such as coal and oil become more expensive and the
usually silver iodide, potassium iodide, dry ice
industry declines. Attempts to provide transition
(solid carbon dioxide) or sodium chloride (table
training for employment in new industries, such as
salt), and they are dispersed from aircraft or shot
clean energy or forestry, are necessary but seldom
upwards from ground-level launchers.
appreciated by the unemployed workers who
resent the intrusion of governments into the The three principal types of geo-engineering
livelihoods. measures being advocated to address climate

Enhancing cloud
brightness Cloud seeding
Giant reflectors
Aerosols in the in orbit
stratosphere Grow more
trees

Greening
Genetically
Increased ocean deserts
engineered crops
reflectivity from
Ocean fertilisation microbubbles
(increasing population Biochar
of carbon-absorbing
plankton)

Geosequestration
into the deep
oceans Geosequestration
into rocks

6.55 Some major geo-engineering strategies. Source: after Kathleen Smith/ Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and University of Leeds.

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change are removing carbon from the atmosphere,
managing insolation (incoming solar radiation)
and reactive measures.

Carbon dioxide removal

Afforestation and reafforestation help reduce
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Trees sequester
carbon, which means they absorb and retain carbon
dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere so it no
longer acts as a greenhouse gas. Therefore, any
action that increases the area of trees reduces
6.57 The process of geosequestration.
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
coal, oil or gas and then liquefied. The carbon
dioxide can then be buried in underground sites
with porous rocks, including old oil and gas wells,
unmined coal seams, or in saltwater trapped
underground. Advocates of geosequestration claim
that the process could reduce carbon dioxide
emissions from electricity production by up to 40%
by 2030, assuming all new coal power stations
sequestered 100% of their carbon dioxide emissions.
The process remains experimental, and some critics
question the morality of storing large volumes of
carbon dioxide underground that may be released,
either through seepage or by accident, with
catastrophic consequences for future generations.
6.56 The afforestation of Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, and its
surrounds, is a large-scale project to increase humidity and Trees absorb carbon dioxide naturally from the
offset the impacts of climate change. atmosphere. Proposals have been made to
Biochar is a type of charcoal that is made by manufacture machines, often called artificial trees,
converting agricultural wastes by the process of that perform the same task in a process known as
pyrolysis, which is the decomposition of organic air capture of carbon dioxide. The concept is that
material at high temperatures without oxygen. air will pass through the artificial tree where filters
Biochar thus absorbs the carbon that would have remove the carbon dioxide and infuse it into
otherwise been released to the atmosphere when absorbent materials that are later removed and
the organic material decomposed or was burned. It buried underground.
is capable of retaining this carbon content for
Desert greening, or oasification, helps to mitigate
hundreds of years. Furthermore, biochar retains
the impact of climate change by increasing the
the nutrients from the original organic materials,
surface area of the world covered by vegetation,
making it suitable as a fertiliser for soils. It is
and thus able to absorb carbon dioxide by
especially suitable for fertilising acidic soils as it
photosynthesis. Unfortunately, oasification is an
raises agricultural productivity and protects against
expensive process, especially for the low-income
some soil-borne diseases.
countries where many of the world’s deserts are
Geosequestration is the storage of compressed located.
near-liquid carbon dioxide in underground
Genetically modified crops are seen by some
chambers. It involves capturing the carbon dioxide
biologists as an effective way to mitigate the impact
before it is pumped into the atmosphere,
of climate change. For example, at the Oak Ridge
transporting it (usually by pipeline) and injecting it
National Laboratory in Tennessee, USA, a hardy
deep underground in rock reservoirs for thousands
desert succulent called agave is being used to
of years. Carbon dioxide is separated from burnt

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In the same way that plants absorb atmospheric
carbon dioxide for the process of photosynthesis,
algae also absorb carbon dioxide. There are
proposals to attach strips of algae to the outsides of
buildings where they can act as carbon absorbents.
Buildings with these strips of algae are known as
algae-coated buildings. After a period of time, the
algae can be harvested for use as biofuel.

When carbonate or silicate rocks disintegrate by

weathering, usually as rainwater dissolves them,
carbon dioxide is absorbed from the atmosphere.
This occurs as carbon dioxide is drawn from the
atmosphere to react with the water and rock
fragments to form new compounds. Enhanced
weathering is the process of adding chemicals or
organisms to the rocks that will cause them to
weather more quickly, and so absorb more carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere.

Ocean fertilisation is the process of adding iron to

the water to feed carbon-absorbing photoplankton,
as plankton feed on iron and additional food
promotes plankton growth. As the photoplankton
sink deeper into the water, they take the carbon
dioxide they have absorbed from the surface and
release it at greater depths where it does not re-
enter the atmosphere. Ocean fertilisation is even
more effective when sperm whales consume the
plankton and then release their iron-rich faeces in
other parts of the ocean, expanding the areas where
6.58 Oasification in the Xihu National Reserve in Gansu
province, China.
additional carbon absorption can take place.

Solar reflection
genetically modify other crops to use less water,
and thus survive (and absorb carbon dioxide) in Injecting microbubbles into seawater has been
dry areas that cannot currently support commercial suggested as a way of reflecting more insolation
crops. Whereas most plants use a process of back into space. The microbubbles function like a
photosynthesis in which they open their stomata cloud within the seawater, scattering solar radiation
during the day to take in carbon dioxide, agave back through the atmosphere into space before it
uses a different kind of photosynthesis. Agave can warm the oceans. Seawater naturally contains
opens its stomata at night to absorb carbon dioxide, up to 1ppm (part per million) of air as bubbles,
when temperatures are cooler, and then stores the usually in the size range of 10μm to 100μm, but
carbon in a temporary pool of malic acid, thereby these bubbles do not reflect significant amounts of
losing less water to transpiration. When the sun insolation. However, if these bubbles could be
comes up, agave releases the stored carbon to broken down into microbubbles of only 1μm, the
complete its photosynthesis without opening its same volume of air would have vastly greater
stomata. Consequently, crops that can be modified reflectivity (albedo). The problem is that
to use agave’s system of photosynthesis survive on microbubbles are unstable in the pressures
as little as one-fifth as much water as traditional surrounding them in the ocean, so they would
species. burst very quickly unless they could be stabilised,

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such as by adding polluting detergents to increase cooler inside, reducing the need for air
their surface tension. conditioning, thus lowering the production of
greenhouse gases from generating electricity in
Enhancing cloud brightness by spraying them
coal-fired power stations. Reflective buildings are
with aerosols or sea-water droplets to increase their
controversial, because while they certainly reduce
cooling effect is a way of increasing albedo, which
the urban heat island effect, they may increase
causes more insolation to be reflected back into
global temperatures because of the additional
space. Smaller water droplets are more reflective
heating required in cooler climates in winter.
than larger droplets, so cloud brightening occurs
when small, microdroplets are infused into the Reactive measures
cloud or larger droplets can be broken up. Aircraft
can be used for cloud brightening, but the favoured Unlike geo-engineering approaches to addressing
methodology is to spray seawater upwards while climate change, some of the technological responses
blasting it into microdroplets. to climate change are simply reactions to the
threats that are perceived. This is especially so in
Injecting sulphur dioxide particles, or aerosols, low-income countries where there is greater focus
into the stratosphere helps to form clouds that are on survival at a local level rather than ‘big-picture’
highly reflective. The aerosols are injected into the global-scale solutions.
upper atmosphere from high-flying aircraft,
balloons or artillery shells. In some ways, this One of the more extreme examples of concern about
process mimics the natural impact of volcanic sea level rise is the Maldives, a small island nation
eruptions, and it is quite economical as the in the Indian Ocean. It comprises about 1,200 small
technology already exists. Indeed, if more airliners islands made of coral and sand that rise to just two
were flying, a similar effect could be achieved with metres in altitude. Given the low elevation of the
very few modifications. It is argued there are no Maldives, and the nation’s heavy dependence on
long-term environmental effects as sulphate tourism, it is understandable that the government
aerosols break down within a few weeks to a few and the residents of the Maldives are very
months. This rapid breakdown is also a concerned about the potential impact of even small
shortcoming of the technique; it needs to be rises in sea level. Indeed, the Maldives was the first
repeated quite often to be effective. Injecting country to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
stratospheric aerosols could also make the The sea level is rising at a rate of 0.9cm per year in
troposphere more humid and change the colour of the Maldives, a rate which may make the islands
the sky, making it whiter during the day and uninhabitable by 2100. Flooding is worsening, and
leading to brighter and more colourful sunsets. erosion from storm waves is increasing. The
Placing large mirrors, or reflectors, in orbit around common engineering solution to this threat in the
the earth is another geo-engineering approach that
has been proposed to reflect solar energy back to
space before it reaches the Earth’s surface. The US
Government has been investigating two
approaches, one being a space mirror about 2,000
kilometres in diameter, the other being thousands
of reflective balloons that pump sulphur dioxide
droplets into the upper atmosphere. Both
approaches would be quite expensive to
implement.

Increasing albedo does not require placing objects

in orbit, as buildings on the earth’s surface can be
constructed with reflective surfaces such as roofs
painted white. Reflective buildings not only reduce 6.59 Waves attack the Maldivian coastline on an island which
the impact of climate change but they tend to be does not rise any higher than the beach visible in this photo.

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6.60 A seawall made by filling wire cages with coral. These 6.62 A seawall made from concrete. Unlike the seawall in
coral-filled cages are very effective in absorbing wave energy in figure 6.60, concrete seawalls reflect waves energy, causing a
the Maldives. ‘double dose’ of erosion in the offshore seabed.
In 2012, the Maldivian Government announced that
it had decided to implement a half billion dollar
project to build floating islands made from a
mixture of concrete and polystyrene foam as
protection against sea level rise. The idea is that as
the sea level rises, the floating islands will rise at
the same rate. One of the proposed islands
includes a luxury housing development and an 18-
hole golf course with sections of the course
connected by underwater, glass-enclosed tunnels.
This project is still in the planning stage, but it has
attracted investment funding from a Dutch-US
consortium.
6.61 This section of white coral-based land was eroded by QUESTION BANK 6D
waves that destroyed a section of the seawall in the
background. This is becoming more common as sea levels rise 1. The UNFCCC, including its follow-up agreements and
in the Maldives. protocols, has a history of more than a quarter of a century
Maldives has been to reinforce the coastline with as the main avenue of global geopolitical efforts to combat
cages filled with coral and to build seawalls. climate change. In about 500 words, outline the history of
the UNFCCC and evaluate its effectiveness. Give reasons
Seawall construction is sometimes supplemented
to support your judgement about the effectiveness of the
by building up the land with sand and coral that
UNFCCC.
has been dredged from nearby seabeds, although
this is quickly washed away if storm waves breach 2. What is the difference between (a) a carbon tax, (b) an
the nearby seawall. emissions trading scheme, (c) carbon off-setting, and (d) an
emissions reduction fund. Identify a strength and a
In 2008 the Maldivian President proposed using the shortcoming of each.
country’s tourist revenue to buy land in India or Sri
3. Explain what is meant by the term ‘geo-engineering’.
Lanka and move the country, but the suggestion
was not adopted. Technological options that have 4. Which two methods of carbon dioxide removal are the most
been examined include dredging sand from practical in your opinion, and which two are likely to be
offshore and using it to raise the level of the least practical? Give reasons to justify your choices.
islands, but this suggestion was turned down 5. Which method of solar reflection is the most effective in your
because of the environmental damage it would opinion, and which is likely to be the least effective? Give
cause to the fragile ecosystem. reasons to justify your choices.

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6. Describe the current and planned reactive technology declined after major flooding in Thailand in 2011
strategies used in the Maldives to counter the impact of affected its production.
climate change.
• Price risks arise from large changes to the cost of
raw materials, which can result from fluctuations
Civil society and in the supply of energy, water and input
corporate strategies commodities. The prices of many resources are
becoming more volatile as climate change affects
Society is sometimes categorized into three sectors, production, transport and insurance. Examples
the first sector being government, the second sector of corporations taking action to protect
being business (the corporate sector), with the third themselves from price uncertainty include IKEA
sector being civil society. Civil society therefore (a Swedish international furniture and home
consists of non-government organisations (NGOs) accessories retailer), which is using renewable
and institutions that express the will of the people. energy where possible to become self-sufficient in
Civil society organisations include academic power, and Volkswagen (a German multinational
societies, activist groups, charities, clubs, car manufacturer), which aims to produce all the
community organisations, consumer advocacy energy needed for their factories on-site, taking
groups, co-operatives, foundations, political parties, their factories off the wider electricity grid.
professional associations, religious organisations,
social enterprises, support groups, trade unions • Product risks occur when a company’s core
and voluntary organisations. products become unpopular, and perhaps
impossible to sell. Examples of this happening
Combatting the impacts of climate change can be include air conditioning factories that lose market
expensive and difficult, especially when it is done share to alternative cooling technologies, and ski
at a national or large regional scale. This explains resorts that lose business because they can no
why much of the initiative comes from the first tier longer rely of sufficient snow cover. These risks
of society, the government sector. However, the can provide new opportunities for agile
second (corporate) sector and the third (civil companies that can adapt, such as when
society) sector also have significant roles to play. hydrocarbon-based energy companies diversify
into solar and wind energy, or when traditional
Corporate strategies supermarkets promote new products that are
Although climate change is having a growing rising in popularity, such as organically grown
impact on the corporate sector, a 2015 survey of the macrobiotic foods.
largest 100 corporations in the world by McKinsey
& Company, an international management
consulting firm, found that only 28% had done
assessments of climate change on their operations,
and an even smaller proportion (18%) were using
climate-specific tools or models to assess risks.

McKinsey identified six areas of risk for the

corporations that are posed by climate change:

• Physical risks result from damage to company

infrastructure caused by climate change-related
hazards such as hurricanes, storm surges, floods,
wildfires. Examples of physical risks affecting
corporations occurred in 2012 when Cargill (a
multinational food and agricultural company) 6.63 Shrinking glaciers and declining snow cover pose product
risks for corporations that rely on winter tourism. This view
posted low earnings as a result of a prolonged
shows tourists enjoying the snow cover near the 4,158 metre
drought in the US, and Western Digital (a major high summit of Jungfrau, a peak in the Bernese Alps of
supplier of hard disk drives), whose revenues Switzerland.

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• Rating risks refer to the higher cost of capital Corporations respond to these risks and threats in
(borrowing money) because of additional costs different ways:
arising due to climate change, such as carbon
• Some companies continue to operate in denial of
pricing, technologies becoming obsolete or
climate change, or function in the hope or belief
unacceptable, or disruptions to supply chains.
that climate change will not affect them. These
• Regulation risks arise when governments companies have either not conducted climate
impose new requirements on companies because change risk assessments, or they have made a
of climate change. New regulations may require conscious decision to ignore them. Alternatively,
companies to pay more money to comply with they accept and pay for the consequences of
tighter pollution controls. Alternatively, new climate change when affected, as we saw with
regulations may limit certain activities or Cargill and Western Digital.
production processes, they may provide
• Some companies adapt their production
subsidies for competitors or withdraw subsidies
processes to make them more energy efficient,
that had previously been received. This risk is
updating technology to make them less reliant on
amplified for companies when there is a change
hydrocarbon fuels, as we saw with IKEA and
of government in a country, and policies become
Volkswagen.
more volatile (for better or for worse) when new
administrations gain power. • Some companies diversify or shift their core
product range in anticipation of the impact of
• Reputation risk occurs when the public perceives
climate change. Examples of corporations that
a corporation’s activities as harmful for the
have followed this strategy include General
environment, as this can result in a loss of sales or
Motors and Toyota (both multinational
business, and in extreme cases, in consumer
automotive companies), which pioneered the
boycotts or community protests.
retail sale of hybrid cars, and BP (a British
The first three of these risks are known as value- multinational oil and gas company), which
chain risks, meaning they relate to the corporation diversified into solar energy and biofuels in the
itself, and its own operations. The other three risks period 2002 to 2005 (but later withdrew from
are known as external stakeholder risks, meaning these industries in 2011 and 2012).
they relate to the corporations relationship with the
• Some companies adopt marketing strategies to
wider community. The risks faced by corporations
portray themselves as concerned about climate
in different sectors of industry due to climate
change and socially responsible in order to boost
change vary widely, as shown in figure 6.64.
their reputation and increase sales to customers
Within the framework of figure 6.64, the risks for
who care about such issues. Examples of
individual companies will differ according to the
companies that do this include supermarkets that
company’s location, management and markets.

6.64 The impact of climate change risks on different industries. 6.65 An advertisement from Lufthansa, a large German Airline,
Source: McKinsey & Company.
promoting its commitment to tackling climate change.

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promote sustainably grown, organic produce, by civil society organisations, and individuals
and Lufthansa (Germany’s largest airline) that working with them, that is published in peer-
has undertaken advertising campaigns that reviewed academic journals such as Nature
emphasise its commitment to reducing carbon Climate Change, Science, the American Journal of
dioxide emissions and its sponsorship of climate Climate Change and the International Journal of
research. Climatology is highly regarded in the academic
community, and is usually regarded as
• Some companies modify their infrastructure to
authoritative information. Research is also
combat the threats imposed by climate change.
communicated through conferences that have the
Examples of companies that have built physical
potential to gather experts and interested
infrastructure to address the risks of climate
individuals from many parts of the world to share,
change include the resorts and hotels in the
discuss and debate ideas and viewpoints. The
Maldives that have built their own seawalls and
networking that occurs at such conferences can
coastal reinforcements.
build professional relationships that make future
research better informed and more widely
available.

Organisations such as 350.org and Avaaz play an

important role in awareness raising — simplifying
climate change research, and then communicating it
to the general public to inform them about the
issues and risks. Awareness raising is often linked
to advocacy through petitions (online and paper)
and lobbying. Lobbying is an explicit attempt to
influence or persuade politicians, journalists,
development organisations such as the World Bank,
and other people of influence towards a particular
viewpoint. If awareness raising and advocacy
6.66 This seawall was built by the company operating the
resort that covers this small atoll in the Maldives. It is an continues for an extended period of time, it can be
example of a corporate response to climate change by building regarded as a campaign. Civil society groups that
defensive infrastructure to protect their investment. engage in campaigns relating to climate change
include Greenpeace, WWF, Get Up!, 350.org,
Civil society strategies
Connect4Climate and the Union of Concerned
The roles played by civil societies in addressing the
risks of climate change are quite different from
corporations. Unlike governments and
corporations, which often function in a ‘top-down’
manner that impose decisions on the general
population, civil society organisations usually try to
reflect the desires and aspirations of their
supporters in a ‘bottom-up’ manner. The main
strategies followed by civil society organisations

Civil society groups such as academic societies and

professional organisations undertake research into
climate change that can investigate new frontiers
and check the accuracy of other research. Research
by civil society groups is most effective when the 6.67 A climate change protest in downtown San Francisco,
organisation is supported by unconditional funding USA, where activists are advocating the cancellation of the
and its research is conducted independently of any Keystone XL oil pipeline from Alberta in western Canada to
political or corporate agenda. Research undertaken refineries in Illinois (USA) and the Gulf of Mexico coastline in
Texas (USA).

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
Scientists. Awareness, advocacy and campaigning
are increasingly conducted online through
websites, Twitter and Facebook postings. Civil
society bodies that organise online petitions or
engage in lobbying include change.org and Avaaz.

Protests and demonstrations are a more traditional

way to raise awareness and campaign for action
against climate change. Protests may be related to a
single climate change-related issue, such as the
controversial proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline, or
they may be more general in nature, such as street
protests organised by groups such as the Campaign
Against Climate Change.
6.69 This traditional hut of the Dani people in Hulesi, a mission
Corporate boycotts are a strategy that civil society village in the southern Baliem Valley of West Papua, Indonesia,
groups use to place pressure on companies that are has a small solar panel above the roof to provide power. The
acting unethically, or in ways that are fuelling solar panel reduces the need to burn fuelwood or kerosene,
climate change, or companies that support therefore reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
politicians or political parties that are failing to take
effective action to counter climate change. CASE STUDY
Some commentators regard the actions of
The Amity Foundation biogas
organisations such as Greenpeace hanging protest project in Guizhou, China
banners on the chimneys of coal-fired power China is the world’s largest producer of greenhouse
stations as direct action. The term ‘direct action’ is gases. Although China’s coastal provinces have
more accurately used to describe the work done by developed rapidly, the inland provinces have not
NGOs and other civil society organisations to developed as rapidly. In many rural areas,
mitigate the threats of climate change for people traditional lifestyles have changed very little and
who do not have the financial, educational or technology remains inefficient and obsolete. There
organisational means to do so themselves. is now a huge gap in wealth between the urban rich
Examples of direct action are the water wells in coastal areas and the rural poor in the inland
provided by Islamic aid organisations to residents provinces. Consequently, farmers in poor, rural
in rural villages in the Sahel region of Africa to areas have few financial resources or incentives to
counter the effects of prolonged droughts, and solar reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by replacing
power panels donated by Christian missionaries to traditional ‘dirty’ fuels such as fuelwood or
residents in the Highlands of West Papua to reduce kerosene. One NGO, the Amity Foundation, saw
their use of greenhouse-gas producing fuelwood. this as an opportunity to take direct action and
help farmers by offering to provide biogas
generation systems.

The Amity Foundation is a Chinese NGO that was

started in 1985 by Chinese Christians to promote
education, social service, health, community
development and civil society, building from
China’s coastal provinces in the east to the minority
areas of the west. Amity engages in many forms of
social development work, including work with
orphans, HIV/AIDS sufferers, victims of natural
disasters, health care, education and rural
development. Several of its programs, such as
biogas, organic farming and tree planting also have
6.68 This water well was donated to residents of a small village
additional strong environmental elements.
north of Bamako in central Mali by a Saudi aid organisation.

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6.71 The same resident shown in figure 6.70 in the kitchen with
her biogas stove.
example for other rural villages to emulate. In this
way, Amity hopes that Laqiafan might become a
source of expansion diffusion from which the idea
and practice of biogas use might spread widely
through rural areas of China.

The advantages of biogas as a fuel are that it is

renewable and it is a substitute for fossil fuels and
fuelwood, both of which produce significant
outputs of greenhouse gases when they are burnt.
In the case of saving fuelwood, it also preserves
China’s increasingly scarce forest areas. Once the
underground tanks have been installed, biogas
costs nothing to run, and it saves the time spent
going out and gathering fuelwood. Biogas also
6.70 A resident of Laqiafan village turns on the biogas valve on burns more cleanly than fuelwood, reducing air
her kitchen wall before lighting her biogas stove. pollutants that become concentrated in kitchens
The Amity biogas program began in 2004 in Nabai, when other fuels are burnt. Compared with biogas,
a village in Majiang County in Guizhou province. homes that burn coal for cooking have 74% more
In an effort to encourage sustainable energy use
that reduced greenhouse gas emissions, Amity
built a total of 52 underground tanks in which a
mixture of pig manure and human excrement was
fermented to produce methane biogas. The biogas
is stored in underground tanks, which is used to
fuel small gas stoves and household lights. The
tanks need cleaning out every two years or so, but
the sludge is a very useful fertiliser for the fields.

Another village where Amity has installed biogas is

Laqiafan in Cengong County, also in Guizhou. In
the case of Laqiafan, Amity was able to obtain some
government funding to help with the provision of
biogas, making it a co-operative government-NGO 6.72 In Nabai village, pigs are kept beside the toilet used by
project. In return for the funding, Laqiafan was local residents so that human and animal wastes can be stored
together in the underground tank (seen here seeping a little
asked to become a ‘model village’, serving as an
with overflow) and fermented for biogas production.

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 Chapter 6 - Responding to climate change
carbon monoxide, 84% more sulphur dioxide, 27%
more carbon dioxide and 77% more suspended
particles in the air.

The process of creating biogas from manure

involves an anaerobic (oxygen-starved) digestion
process by bacteria. This process destroys a wide
range of pathogens in the manure, including E. coli,
schistosoma, hookworms, shigella, dysentery-
causing bacilli, and spirochetes. Consequently,
villages in China where biogas has been introduced
have significantly lower incidences of a wide range
of infectious diseases and parasitic infections.
Furthermore, the slurry and sludge that is left
6.73 A close view of the contents of an underground tank behind after the biogas has been produced makes
where faeces is fermented to produce biogas. an excellent organic fertiliser, boosting crop yields
and food production, and therefore improving the
standards of living for residents of the villages.

Amity’s biogas project in China is already reducing

greenhouse gas emissions in Nabai and Laqiafan, as
well as several other villages that have adopted the
concept such as Yongshun and Baojing counties in
Hunan province. Representatives from an NGO in
Madagascar, the FLM (Malagasy Lutheran Church)
have visited Amity’s biogas projects in China, and
agreed to emulate the concept in poor rural
communities in Madagascar.

QUESTION BANK 6E
1. What is a ‘civil society’? Provide some examples of civil
societies you are familiar with that are not mentioned in
this chapter.

2. Giving examples where possible, describe the six risks posed

by climate change to corporations.

3. With reference to figure 6.64, write about 250 words to

compare the risks faced by different industries as a result of
climate change.

4. Giving examples where possible, outline the strategies used

by corporations to address climate change.

5. Giving examples where possible, outline the strategies used

by civil societies to address climate change.

6. Explain how the Amity Foundation biogas project in China

mitigates the impact of climate change.

7. In your opinion, how effective is the Amity Foundation

biogas project (a) as a strategy to address climate change,
6.74 Biogas is not only used for cooking, but provides the and (b) as a social development project? Give reasons to
power to light residences. In this view, a resident of Nabai explain your answer.
village adjusts the biogas value on his wall to control the
brightness of the light overhead.

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 Section 3

Global resource
consumption
and security

Oil drilling rigs near Baku, Azerbaijan.

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7 Global trends in
consumption

7.1 The basic geographical problem with resources is that they are often found in places that are a long way from where people need
to use them. In this case, a woman in Sanga, Mali, is addressing the problem by carrying water to her home, like millions of other
women around the world do every day.
Nonetheless, governments need a measure of
Poverty reduction and absolute poverty if they are to ensure fairness in
the new global middle providing assistance for poverty-stricken and
destitute members of their society. The poverty
class line (or poverty threshold) that governments use to
Poverty can be defined as the state of being define the minimum level of income required to
extremely poor, lacking material possessions or secure the necessities of life varies widely in
money. In general discussions, people in different different countries. In the United States, the
countries have different understandings of the poverty line for an elderly person living alone is
word poverty, as people tend to view poverty US$32.25 per day, but for a family of four
through the lens of what is normal or abnormal in (including two children) it is US$66.45 per day. By
their own country. We can therefore say that in contrast, in India the poverty line is set at US$0.40
general usage, ‘poverty’ is a relative term, as it for urban residents and US$0.25 for rural dwellers,
depends on a perception of wealth that is compared and at US$0.55 per day in China.
with a level that is considered normal or average.
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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
90

c han g e of ye ar s c al e

c han g e of ye ar s c al e
80

70
% o f th e po p ul a ti o n

60

☚
50

40

30

20

10

0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World Low income countries Lower middle income countries Middle income countries
Upper middle income countries High income countries East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Fragile and conflict affected situations Latin America & Caribbean South Asia
7.2 Percentage of the population earning less than US$1.90 per day (2011 PPP), 1981 to 2015. Continents and regions with
predominantly high income countries are not shown because the proportion of the population earning less than US$1.90 is
insignificant. Source: Drawn from World Bank data.

To enable international comparisons, international the global figure of extreme poverty has fallen to
organisations such as the World Bank and the about 10% of the world population, this still
United Nations have used an arbitrary figure of represents a huge number of people – more than
US$1.90 (about US$700 per annum) to define the 760 million. This is approximately the same
extreme poverty threshold since 2015. In earlier number of people who were living in extreme
years, this figure had been set at US$1.00 (in 1996), poverty 200 years ago, when the global population
adjusted to US$1.25 in 2008 and then to US$1.90 in was about 950 million people. Expressed another
2015. In order to compensate for the effects of way, 60% of the world’s extremely poor people live
inflation and different costs of living in different in just five countries: India, Nigeria, China,
countries, it is customary to use 2011 US dollars Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of the
adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Figure Congo.
7.2 shows the world-wide trend in extreme poverty
The reduction in poverty did not affect all groups of
since 1981 using this threshold.
people evenly. Overall, poverty levels are far
During the period 1981 to 2015, the percentage of higher in low income countries than elsewhere in
people in the world who earned US$1.90 a day or the world, which means poverty is concentrated in
less fell from 42% to 10%. The fall was sharpest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia; 80% of the
East Asia and the Pacific where the rate fell from world’s extreme poverty is found in these two
80% to 2%. Poverty levels fell in all parts of the regions. In all geographical regions, women are
world except Europe and Central Asia, where they more likely than men to live in poverty, and in
rose for a while following the collapse of the Soviet Latin America, the proportion of women living in
Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, and in extreme poverty rose, contrary to the general trend
countries that were affected by conflicts. Although of poverty decline. Of 75 countries surveyed by the

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manufacturing industries and providing
employment away from overcrowded farms.

As a result of the reduction in poverty, incomes

have risen for people in every continent and every
region of the world. At the same time as they have
helped to reduce poverty, reductions in poverty
levels have in turn led to improvements in global
health standards, decreases in malnutrition, more
access to education, and better overall quality of
housing.

One of the consequences of the reduction in

poverty is the growth of a new global middle
7.3 Extreme poverty is most prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa, as class. As figure 7.6 shows, the middle class is in the
seen here in an area of poor housing in Bamako, the capital city process of doubling in size in the 15-year period
of Mali. Women are especially disadvantaged in many low- from 2015 to 2030. By 2030, the percentage of the
income countries.

United Nations in 2015, women were found to be

more likely to be living in poverty than men in 41
of those countries.

There is no consensus on the reasons for the decline

in poverty, and it is likely that several factors
combined to produce the result. Proponents of
globalisation argue that the prolonged period of
increasingly free international trade since the 1980s
was a major factor in reducing poverty. They argue
that as workers, money and products have become
more mobile internationally, production processes
have become more efficient and goods available to
consumers have become cheaper and more 7.4 Although poverty has declined markedly in China,
affordable. The increase in trade between increased wealth has not yet reached many farmers in remote
developing countries was especially significant in rural areas, many of whom still live in very poor conditions. This
farmer lives on the steep slope of a gorge in the Yangtze River
generating wealth and employment, as the
near Yichang, Hubei province.
percentage of world trade that took place between
developing countries rose from less than 10% in
1980 to more than 25% today.

Other factors that have helped alleviate poverty

include improved health, more access to education
and better infrastructure, factors that are usually
provided by governments in developing countries.
This suggests that government policies have an
important role to play in reducing poverty.

The other factor that has decreased poverty is the

increased use of appropriate technology. Just as
technological change led to the Industrial
Revolution in Europe in the 1800s, basic machinery
is improving the quality and raising the quantity of 7.5 In contrast with the scene in figure 7.4, a large and affluent
production in developing countries, expanding middle class has emerged in China’s coastal cities, such as
Shenzhen in Guangdong province, shown here.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
1965 2030
Total population 3,267,422,420 people Total population 8,011,521,525 people
Top income population 5,558,825 people Top income population 357,936,395 people
Middle income population 736,853,742 people Middle income population 4,871,161,044 people
Bottom income people 2,525,009,853 people Bottom income people 2,782,424,086 people

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

7.6 The emerging middle class, 1965 to 2030. The top income population (green bars) is defined as people whose average
expenditure exceeds US$36,500 per annum. The middle income population (red bars) is defined as people whose average
expenditure is between US$3,650 and US$36,500 per annum. The low income population (grey bars) is defined as people whose
average expenditure is less than US$3,650 per annum. Source: Drawn from Davos 2012 data via Reuters.

world’s middle class people in Europe and North 4. Quoting figures, use figure 7.2 to describe the world-wide
America will shrink from today’s 50% to just 22%. trend in poverty since 1981.
The largest growth in middle class numbers is
5. With reference to figure 7.2, which group of countries had
expected in China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam,
(a) the highest poverty levels in 2015, (b) the lowest
Thailand and Malaysia. As a consequence of the
poverty levels in 2013, (c) the biggest reduction in poverty
growth of the middle class in Asia, 64% of the levels between 1981 and 2015, and (d) the smallest
world’s middle class population will live in Asia by percentage reduction in poverty between 1981 and 2015?
2030. This will have a dramatic effect on world
6. With reference to figure 7.2, describe the differences in the
markets and trade, as it is expected that 40% of
poverty trends in the four regions shown by dashed lines.
global middle class consumption will be in Asia by
Suggest reasons for the differences.
2030.
7. What is causing world-wide poverty levels to decrease?
QUESTION BANK 7A
8. Using figures where possible, describe the growth of the
1. What is the difference between ‘relative poverty’ and global middle class shown in figure 7.6.
‘absolute poverty’?
9. With reference to figure 7.6, measure and state the number
2. What is meant by the term ‘poverty line’ (or ‘poverty of top income, middle income and low income people in the
threshold’)? world this calendar year (i.e. in the year you are answering
this question).
3. Why is the somewhat arbitrary figure of US$1.90 used as
the extreme poverty threshold?

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
The question of whether something is a resource or
Trends in resource not differs according to a person’s culture.
consumption Uranium is a resource in France because electricity
is generated in nuclear power plants. However,
The nature of resources uranium is not a resource to an isolated person
living in the remote Highlands of West Papua
A resource is something that is useful to humans. except in the sense that it, like some other kinds of
Of course, something that is a resource to one rock, can be fashioned into a stone tool. Of course,
person may not be a resource to someone else. A if the Highlander is not quite so isolated, and can
bicycle may be very useful to an eight year-old boy, sell the uranium, then it becomes a resource – as
but it may be of very limited use to the eight year-
long as the Highlander has become part of the cash
old’s ageing grandparents. Therefore, the bicycle is
economy and money is therefore useful (or a
a resource (or something useful) to the eight year-
resource) to that person. In a similar way, pigs are
old, but not to that child’s grandparents.
resources to West Papuan Highlanders because
they are both a source of food and a symbol of
wealth. However, a pig would not be a resource to
a Muslim person living in Saudi Arabia because
Islam regards the pig as an unclean animal that
cannot be eaten.

Two small sticks from a bush are a resource to West

Papuan Highlanders. However, they are of little
use to most urbanised people in the world for
whom twigs are so common that they are
worthless, and who would use a match or a
cigarette lighter to start a fire.

7.7 Bicycles are a resource for these farmers in Sariwon, North

Korea, where they are used for personal as well as freight
transport on well developed, flat. concrete roadways. Bicycles
would be of almost no use to the people shown in figure 7.8
who live in the mountains of West Papua, where steep narrow
trails with sharp rocks, creek crossings and steep mountains
make using a bicycle complete impractical.

7.9 Iron ore is a resource to the people of Sierra Leone only

because it can be sold commercially, so the money received
can be spent on everyday needs. This view shows part of the
AML (African Mining Limited) iron ore reserve attached to the
port loading facility at Pepel, near Freetown.
What constitutes a resource and what is not
changes over time. To take the example of
uranium that was mentioned earlier, although it is a
resource in France today it would not have been
7.8 For this man in the mountains of West Papua, Indonesia, the
stone axe used to butcher the pig that has just been killed with useful several centuries ago. We can say, therefore,
a wooden spear is an important resource. However, the axe that the concept of a resource is dependent on
would be useless to a person in North Korea who can ride a technology as well as culture.
bicycle to a shop to buy refrigerated pork.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Coal, oil and sand provide additional examples of materials that can be regenerated in nature faster
the changing nature of resources. By the time than they are being exploited by a society.
Europeans first settled in Australia, coal had been Examples of renewable resources include solar
used as a fuel in many parts of the world. radiation, water, wind, soil, plants (including
However, the culture of Australian Aboriginal forests) and animals. Sometimes, mismanagement
people had developed over thousands of years of a renewable resource can lead to its depletion (or
without the use of this natural resource. The ‘mining’), causing it to become exhausted. For
potential had always been there, especially where example, if trees in a forest are cut down more
coal seams outcropped in coastal cliffs, and lumps quickly than they can re-grow, or if soils are
of coal were scattered along beaches, but coal only cultivated in a way that allows erosion to occur,
became a natural resource in those places where a then the resource becomes effectively non-
use was found for it. renewable.

Oil, likewise, occurred naturally in places where it When resources are consumed at a rate that is equal
oozed to the surface and even formed shallow lakes to or slower than the rate at which the resource can
in various parts of the world. It was a minor regenerate, then the resource is being used
natural resource until drilling for it proved sustainably. Sustainable resource use means that
successful in 1859 and refining techniques were the resource is being managed in a way that enables
developed and spurred along by the development
of the internal combustion engine.

Sand has been part of the building industry as an

ingredient of mortar and concrete for thousands of
years. Glass, made from silicon via its dominant
constituent, silica, has been used for about 2000
years. It was only in the 1980s and 1990s that the
techniques were developed to allow sand to
become an important contributor to our computer-
based and high energy-using society. The silicon
chip is now part of our way of life even though
computer chips are now being made from new
compounds that allow even greater computing
power. Silicon is also a key component of the solar
7.10 This area of forest is regenerating after timber harvesting
panels that should contribute a growing proportion within Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, USA. When
of the pollutant-free energy the world uses. Sand’s managed sustainably, timber is a renewable resource.
changing role as a natural resource is another
example of the way technological advances can
radically alter natural resources.

If a resource is something useful to humans, then a

natural resource can be thought of as anything in
the biophysical environment that can be used by
people. Thus, a natural resource can be defined as a
naturally occurring material that a society perceives
as being useful to its economic and/or social well-
being, and which can be used or exploited.

There are several groups into which natural

resources can be classified or categorised. One of
the most common classifications is to separate
7.11 Iron ore mining at Mount Whaleback in the Pilbara region of
resources into renewable and non-renewable
Western Australia. Iron is a non-renewable resource, but it is
resources. Renewable resources are those recyclable.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
the resource to be used in perpetuity. On the other The ecological footprint
hand, if a resource is being exploited faster than it
can regenerate, it cannot be used in perpetuity When natural resources are used, there are almost
because it will become depleted and exhausted; this always unintended consequences, including impact
is unsustainable resource use. on the biophysical environment. The supply, or
extent, of the Earth’s natural resources can be
A non-renewable resource is a material that is regarded as the biological capacity, or biocapacity,
generated so slowly in nature that for all practical of the planet. Biocapacity is an ecosystem’s
purposes it exists in a finite quantity. Examples of capacity to produce resources that are used by
non-renewable resources include the fossil fuels people and to absorb waste materials produced by
(oil, natural gas and coal), minerals (both metallic humans, assuming current technology and
and non-metallic) and nuclear fuels (such as management systems. Biocapacity can shift over
uranium). Many non-renewable resources can be time as changes occur in the climate, management
recycled, which means they can be used repeatedly. systems, technology, and the health of the
Examples of non-renewable recyclable resources ecosystem.
include most metals (such as aluminium, zinc and
lead), some non-metallic minerals such as The Global Footprint Network estimates that there
diamonds, and materials manufactured from fossil are about 12 billion hectares of biologically
fuels such as plastics. productive land and water on Earth. If we divide
this area by the world’s population, we see that
There are other ways of classifying resources there are about 1.73 hectares of productive land and
besides the simple division into renewable and water available to support each human on the
non-renewable. For example, it is possible to planet – that is before we take any account of the
divide resources into five broad categories: needs of plants and animals that also rely on the
• energy resources, such as fossil fuels, geothermal same biocapacity as humans.
reserves, water (when used for hydro-electricity); The earth’s biocapacity per person is the basis of
nuclear materials, biomass, solar energy, tidal calculating the ecological footprint, a concept
energy and the wind; developed by Mathis Wackernagel and William
• mineral resources, both metallic and non- Rees at the University of British Columbia (Canada)
metallic; in the early 1990s. It compares the human demand
• organic resources, such as soils, forests and for resource consumption with the Earth’s
animals; ecological capacity to regenerate.

• water resources; and

• landscape.

These are not the only ways of classifying

resources, and there is nothing to stop a group of
students devising their own original system of
classifying resources according to quite different
criteria. For example, we often hear humans
referred to as resources, as in the term human
resources, because people are useful to each other.

QUESTION BANK 7B
1. What is a ‘resource’?

2. Explain how the things that are considered to be resources

change (a) over time and (b) between cultures. 7.12 Qatar has the world’s highest ecological footprint per
capita, largely because of high use of hydrocarbon fuels for
3. Explain the difference between renewable and non- transport and electricity, especially air conditioning. This view
renewable resources. shows the smog-shrouded skyline of Qatar’s capital city, Doha.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Qatar
Australia
USA
Canada
Kuwait
Singapore
Trinidad and Tobago
Oman
Bahrain
Belgium
Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Israel
Mongolia
Austria
Finland
Lithuania
Slovenia
Switzerland
Russia
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
New Zealand
Ireland
Kazakhstan
Denmark
Turkmenistan
Germany
Netherlands
Czech Republic
France
Belarus
Japan
Norway
United Kingdom
Italy
Poland
Greece
Chile
Cyprus
Paraguay
Slovakia
Croatia
Portugal
Lebanon
Botswana
Malaysia
Libya
Spain
Venezuela
Mauritius
China
Turkey
Bulgaria
South Africa
Macedonia
Argentina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Global total ecological footprint per capita 2.84
Brazil
Bolivia
Hungary
Uruguay
Mexico
Ukraine
Costa Rica
Iran
Panama
Romania
Serbia
Thailand
Mauritania
Namibia
Tunisia
Uzbekistan
Azerbaijan
Peru
Armenia
Albania
Ecuador
Egypt
Algeria
Jordan
Global total biocapacity per capita 1.73
El Salvador
Gabon
Swaziland
Ghana
Cuba
Papua New Guinea
Kyrgyzstan
Guatemala
Jamaica
Iraq
Colombia
Moldova
Morocco
Honduras
Lesotho
Vietnam
Indonesia
Georgia
Niger
Mali
Dominican Rep.
Guinea-Bissau
Syria
Chad
Myanmar
Guinea
Benin
Nicaragua
Zimbabwe
Carbon Footprint
Tanzania
Sri Lanka
Congo
Cropland Footprint
Côte d'Ivoire
Uganda
Somalia
Grazing Footprint
Sierra Leone Biocapacity deficit per capita 1.11
Central African Rep.
Laos
Forest Product Footprint
Burkina Faso
Cambodia
Senegal
Fish Footprint
Liberia
North Korea
Cameroon
Built up land Footprint
India
Nigeria
Togo
Philippines
Kenya
Yemen
Gambia
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Zambia
Nepal
Angola
Tajikistan
Mozambique
Rwanda 7.13 The ecological footprint per person, 2012, for all countries with populations of over one
Congo, DR
Malawi million people for which complete data is available. Source: Drawn from data in National Footprint
Burundi
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Accounts, 2016 Edition. © 2016 Global Footprint Network.
Bangladesh
Haiti
Timor-Leste
Eritrea

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
The approach taken in calculating the ecological
footprint is to assess the biologically productive
land and marine area required to support a given
population’s resource consumption using existing
technology and management systems. It uses units
of biologically productive area (global hectares) to
measure the area needed to produce the materials
consumed and to absorb the wastes these processes
generate, and this can be done for an individual, an
industry, a country or the entire planet.

The ecological footprint examines six components

of biocapacity:
• carbon footprint – measures the carbon dioxide 7.14 Eritrea has the world’s smallest ecological footprint per
produced by using fossil fuels in transport, capita for any country with more than a million people. This is a
manufacturing, and so on. reflection of the country’s low level of economic development
and especially its low use of fossil fuels, both of which are
• croplands – used for growing industrial crops
evident in this view near Dogali.
and food crops.
• grazing lands – used for raising animals for As the earth has just 1.73 hectares of productive
meat, milk, wool and leather. land and water available to support each human
• forests – used for timber for building, fuel and being, there is a biocapacity deficit of 1.11 hectares
per capita, which means we are consuming
wood products, and also necessary for
resources at a level is not sustainable. The over-
atmospheric carbon absorption and land
exploitation (or ‘mining’) of resources is showing in
stabilisation.
environmental degradation such as deforestation,
• the oceans – used for fishing and other marine
global warming, air and water pollution, soil
produce.
erosion, destruction of coral reefs, over-exploitation
• built-up land – natural land that has been of fisheries, and species extinction.
converted for buildings, transport infrastructure,
manufacturing, housing, and other urban uses. The ecological footprint is sometimes expressed as
the number of Planet Earths that are required to
Figure 7.13 shows the ecological footprints per support a current level of resource consumption.
capita for countries with populations of at least one With a total ecological footprint of 2.84 global
million people. Qatar has the world’s highest per hectares and a biocapacity of 1.73 global hectares,
capita ecological footprint, mainly because of its humanity is using 1.64 times the Earth’s
heavy use of carbon-based fuels that produce large biocapacity. In other words, the present global
quantities of greenhouse gases. Australia has the consumption level is unsustainable, as it is
second highest ecological footprint per capita, and drawing on the equivalent of 1.64 Planet Earths.
although carbon emissions play a significant role,
the country’s large areas of cropland for its sparse The concern for environmental geographers is that
population boosted the figure. Other countries the biocapacity deficit is growing over time.
with unusually high carbon footprints per capita Figure 7.15 shows the changes in the global
include the United States, Canada, Kuwait and ecological footprint since 1961. In 1961, humanity
Singapore. was consuming resources at a rate that could be
sustained by the equivalent of 0.72 Planet Earths.
According to the most recent figures available, the Parity was reached in 1970, which is when resource
Earth’s total ecological footprint per capita is 2.84 consumption matched the Earth’s capacity to
global hectares. This means each person in the provide resources and absorb wastes. Since that
world uses an average of the equivalent 2.84 time, the biocapacity deficit has grown to its
hectares of land and water to produce the resources present level of about 1.62 Planet Earths.
they consume and absorb the wastes they produce.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
1.8
Carbon Crops Grazing Forests Fish Built-up land
1.6
Number of Planet Earths available and demanded

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
7.15 Changes in the world’s ecological footprint, by component, 1961 to 2012. Source: Drawn from data in National Footprint Accounts, 2016
Edition. © 2016 Global Footprint Network.

The balance between resource and biocapacity is ecological assets or emitting carbon dioxide waste
not uniform in all parts of the world. Figure 7.16 into the atmosphere.
shows the distribution of biocapacity debt and
A biocapacity creditor country has an ecological
credit. A biocapacity debtor country has an
surplus, which exists when its biocapacity exceeds
ecological deficit. This occurs when the ecological
the population’s ecological footprint. Countries
footprint of a population exceeds the biocapacity of
with the largest biocapacity deficits are Singapore
the area available to that population. An ecological
(16,000%), Réunion (1,900%), Israel (1,700%),
deficit means that the country is importing
Cyprus (1,100%) and Lebanon (1,100%). Countries
biocapacity through trade, liquidating national

Biocapacity
debtors
>150%

100-150%

50-100%

0-50%

0-50%

50-100%

199-150%

>150%
Biocapacity No data
creditors

7.16 Biocapacity debtor and creditor countries, 2018. Source: Drawn from data in National Footprint Accounts, 2019 Edition.
© 2019 Global Footprint Network.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
populations relative to the area of the country. As
we will see in chapter 9, this shows that the
ecological footprint is a neo-Malthusian measure of
the relationship between population size and
resource consumption.

Shortcomings of the ecological footprint

In order to calculate an ecological footprint, six
explicit assumptions are made:
• Most anthropogenic resource uses and the
resulting amounts of waste and emissions can be
identified.
7.17 Singapore has the world’s largest biocapacity deficit due to • Most resource and waste flows can be measured
its high population density, affluent lifestyle, lack of natural in terms of their bioproductive areas (the
resources, small area, and heavy use of fossil fuels for transport, number of hectares) required for their supply and
power and air conditioning. absorption. Quantities that cannot be measured
are not included in the calculation.
• Different bioproductive areas can be converted
into one single measure (the ‘global hectare’),
which corresponds to average global
productivity.
• Since each global hectare in a given year reflects
the same bioproductivity, they can be added into
a single total figure.
• If humans’ demand for resources and natural
supply of resources are both measured in global
hectares, direct comparisons are possible.
• The calculated demand for land area can exceed
its supply.
7.18 Guyana has the world’s largest biocapacity reserve due to
its sparse population density, low level of economic Although the ecological footprint has become a
development, abundant natural resources and low usage of
widely-used indicator of resource consumption
fossil fuels. This view shows the Potaro River Gorge near
Kaieteur Falls in central Guyana. sustainability, it has also been criticised. Alleged
shortcomings of the ecological footprint concept
with the largest biocapacity credits, or reserves, are
and calculations include:
Guyana (2,100%), Congo (750%), the Central
African Republic (530%), and Bolivia (470%). • The reliability of the input data cannot be
Although Australia has the world’s second highest guaranteed as it relies on statistics that are
ecological footprint per capita, its large area of difficult to measure and obtain, especially in
resource-rich land and ocean means it is a low-income countries. Therefore, some figures
biocapacity creditor country. (such as crops and livestock) may be either
omitted or double-counted.
In general, countries that have biocapacity reserves
tend to be those with large areas compared to their • Different countries use different methods to
population sizes, or those countries with lower collect statistics, and so international
levels of economic development that therefore comparisons are not always reliable.
consume fewer resources. Conversely, countries
• In calculating emissions of greenhouse gases,
with significant biocapacity deficits are those with
only carbon dioxide is included in the ecological
higher resource consumption from higher levels of
footprint; other greenhouse gas emissions and
economic development and countries with large
wastes are ignored.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
• The ecological footprint includes the use of Institute) believe is plausible, then the carbon
renewable resources but omits the use of non- deficit in the ecological footprint disappears.
renewable resources such as minerals, ores and This is significant as the ecological footprint
fossil fuels except in terms of the energy they model calculates that the carbon footprint alone
require for production. Fossil fuel use is comprises almost one Planet Earth (figure 7.15).
considered, but only indirectly in terms of their
• The ecological footprint only includes land and
carbon dioxide emissions caused by combustion.
water areas in its calculations that supply
• The consumption and use of fresh water is not biological productivity useful for humans. Areas
included in calculating the ecological footprint that are not usable for humanity, such as deserts,
because it is not a biologically produced good. polar and glacial regions, are not considered in
Water consumption is only considered indirectly the calculation of biocapacity on the basis the
by the loss of biocapacity. concentration of renewable resources in these
areas is too small to contribute significantly to
• Trade is a significant component of the ecological
overall biocapacity. Furthermore, wetlands and
footprint, but this is calculated too simply by
coastal river deltas are not considered in the
assuming global average figures for the carbon-
ecological footprint or biocapacity calculation
related energy contained in imported goods. No
due to a lack of available data. Consequently,
adjustments are made for the carbon intensity of
almost 40% of the Earth’s land surface is
the energy used in the country of origin or
excluded from the calculations, even though they
distance travelled.
could provide important ecosystem services such
• The impact of tourism is not included in the as biodiversity conservation. Furthermore,
ecological footprint calculations. several indigenous populations have lived in
these areas for centuries. The ecological
• The ecological footprint assumes that forests are
footprint’s classification of land according to its
the only factor offsetting human carbon
usefulness or non-usefulness is thus largely a
emissions. The model assumes the rate of carbon
subjective decision.
absorption by forests is 0.97 tonnes of carbon per
hectare of forest per year. Realistically, the rate at
which forests absorb carbon fluctuates in a range
from 0 to 6 tonnes of carbon per hectare of forest
per year. If the assumed rate of carbon
absorption were 2.6 tonnes of carbon per hectare
of forest per year, which some commentators
(such as Linus Blomqvist of The Breakthrough

7.20 The Himba people have lived in the Namib Desert of

Namibia for hundreds of years. Notwithstanding the productive
use of marginal lands by indigenous peoples, the ecological
footprint does not include such areas in its calculations of
biocapacity.
• The ecological footprint is based on an
assumption of the concept of strong
sustainability. Strong sustainability assumes
7.19 Some critics assert that the ecological footprint that natural resources and human products
underestimates the capacity of forests to absorb anthropogenic cannot be substituted, but human production of
carbon emissions. This vibrant mangrove forest is in Bunut goods and services depends on the availability of
Perpindahan, Brunei.

244
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
intact natural resources. Strong sustainability is 3. Go to http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/
not accepted by all environmental geographers, GFN/page/calculators and calculate your own personal
some of whom prefer and advocate weak ecological footprint. Compare your personal ecological
sustainability. In weak sustainability, the wealth footprint to (a) the global total ecological footprint per
capita, and (b) the global total biocapacity per capita.
of a society is seen as being guaranteed in the
Identify the main factors that contribute to your personal
long term provided the total sum of natural
ecological footprint.
resources and human production is not
decreasing. Unlike strong sustainability, weak 4. Explain why it is claimed the Earth has a biocapacity deficit
sustainability assumes that natural resources and (currently 1.11 hectares per capita).
the goods and services produced by humans are 5. Describe the main trends evident in figure 7.15.
exchangeable. Supporters of weak sustainability
6. Describe and account for the main concentrations of (a)
therefore question a key assumption of the
biocapacity debtor countries, and (b) biocapacity creditor
ecological footprint methodology, which is that
countries shown in figure 7.16.
the actual reserves of natural resources are
optimal and worth preserving, and that 7. Describe and account for the differences in biocapacity in
substitution of natural resources with goods and Singapore and Guyana.
services produced by people can never be 8. Identify the two shortcomings of the ecological footprint
regarded as sustainable practice. If this hard that you believe are the most significant, and explain the
philosophical assumption within the ecological reasons for your selection.
footprint were relaxed to accommodate the
concept of weak sustainability, the size of the Global patterns and
ecological footprint would be reduced
substantially as the environmental impacts of trends
human activities would receive less weighting. Despite its shortcomings, the global ecological
Supporters of weak sustainability claim this footprint gives a good general idea of the
would make the ecological footprint more distribution of resource consumption in relation to
realistic. resource availability. Mis-matches between the
These shortcomings do not negate the usefulness of places where resources are consumed and the
the ecological footprint, but they suggest the locations where resources are available for supply,
concept is still being developed and fine-tuned, and and the ways these incongruities are addressed, are
so it may contain errors that are subject to classic geographical issues. These issues will be
correction in the future. The shortcomings explain considered here with reference to three basic
why the ecological footprint has not been widely resources – water, land and energy.
adopted by government agencies despite its
obvious usefulness and simplicity in understanding
resource consumption.

QUESTION BANK 7C
1. What is meant by the terms ‘biocapacity’, ‘ecological
footprint’ and ‘global hectares’?

2. Draw up a table with seven columns. In the first column,

list the names of the following countries: Qatar, Australia,
USA, Canada, Israel, Mongolia, Ireland, Mali, Eritrea and
your own home country (if it is shown on the list). In the
next six columns, write the following headings: carbon;
cropland; grazing; forests; fishing; built-up areas. For each
country, estimate the percentage contribution to the
7.21 The uneven distribution of resources, and their different
national ecological footprint from each factor, and write
supply and demand locations, are challenges for humanity. This
that number in the appropriate cell of the table. Then woman in Tiébélé, Burkina Faso, is meeting the challenge like
discuss possible reasons for the differences you have noted. many other women around the world — transporting water over
a long distance from a well or stream to her home.

245
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Water resources The fact that water resources are distributed
unevenly means that not all people have equal
Water is such an important resource for humans access to water, and some countries have fewer
that we cannot survive without it for more than a water resources than others. To take some extreme
few days, and yet is often taken for granted. It is examples, Iceland has almost two million litres of
not surprising that the reliable supply of water in water available for each person in the country, but
the valleys of the Yangtze River in China, the Kuwait has just 30 litres per person.
Ganges in India, the Mekong in south-east Asia and
the many rivers of Europe and the Mediterranean This uneven distribution is compounded by
area, provided the sites for many early human population growth. Precipitation levels remain
settlements as population sizes grew. broadly similar over time, so a growing population
means there will be less water available per person
The Earth’s fresh water is distributed unevenly over time unless substantial investments are made
across the world’s surface, and the places where to harness more water. A further complicating
people need to use water do not always coincide factor is that many rivers are shared internationally,
with the places where water is available in and this can lead to conflict over scarce resources.
sufficient quantities or quality. Headlines that A total of 261 river systems that drain almost half
include words such as ‘water crisis’, ‘critical water the world’s land area are shared by two or more
shortage’, ‘conflict to secure water’, and ‘wells countries, while at least ten rivers flow through six
running dry’, are all too common in news reports. or more countries.
It is not surprising that one of humanity’s most
enduring tasks is the control and harnessing of Given that more than 71% of the Earth’s surface is
water resources. covered by water, it may be surprising to hear
Saline Surface water and other Atmospheric
Freshwater 2.5%
groundwater freshwater 1.3% water 0.22%
0.93%
Biological
Saline lakes Groundwater water 0.22%
0.07% Lakes
30.1% 20.1% Runoff (mainly
rivers) 0.46%
Swamps and
marshes 2.53%
Oceans
Ice and Soil moisture
96.5% Glaciers snow 3.52%
and ice 73.1%
caps
68.6%

Surface water and

Total global water Freshwater
other freshwater

Total average annual renewable freshwater resources (runoff) • 43,000km3

Uncaptured floodwaters • 28,000km3 Stable baseflow • 15,000km3

Uncaptured floodwaters • 28,000km3 Unused Resource available

5,500km3 9,500km3

Unused Stored in dams Consumed

Uncaptured floodwaters • 28,000km3
5,500km3 5,500km3 4,000km3

7.22 The distribution of the Earth’s water, and the uses and availability of the world’s annual renewable freshwater resources.

246
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
people say that some parts of the world have a ‘internal resources’) available. Of course, most of
shortage of water. The problem is that 96.5% of the this water is used in agricultural and
world’s water is in the oceans, and is too saline for manufacturing activities rather than by individual
human or animal consumption, or for use to households. Humans can survive on about two
irrigate farmlands. Therefore, when we speak litres of water per day, residential usage rates
about water resources, we are really referring to range from about 590 litres per person per day in
freshwater. When we examine the 2.5% of the the United States, to 375 litres per person per day in
world’s water that is freshwater, we find that more Japan, about 200 litres per person per day in
than two-thirds of it is inaccessible because it is Germany down to between 10 and 20 litres per
frozen in polar ice caps and ice sheets. Thus, the person per day in the Sahel region of Sub-Saharan
freshwater that humans depend upon amounts to Africa. The world average residential (or domestic)
0.79% of the world’s water, of which 95.9% is held water use per capita per day is about 150 litres.
as groundwater.
This suggests that water consumption is related to
Although groundwater is extracted for human use levels of economic development and personal
in many parts of the world, it is a non-renewable lifestyles. Water is withdrawn from freshwater
resource. Groundwater takes hundreds of years to reserves for three broad groups of uses –
recharge, so it only be used sustainably if the rate of agriculture (which includes irrigation, livestock
extraction is equal to or less than the rate of raising, cleaning and aquaculture), manufacturing
recharge. industries (processing and fabricating) and urban
(domestic) use. A fourth human ‘use’ of water is
Each year, the Earth’s land surfaces receive about
the evaporation loss from the surface of dams and
113,000 cubic kilometres of precipitation. Of this
reservoirs. Although this fourth use is not an
amount, about 72,000 cubic kilometres evaporate,
intentional withdrawal of water from freshwater
leaving a net annual input of 43,000 cubic
reserves, it does represent a consumption of water
kilometres, which is the equivalent of about 30
due to human activities because the water would
centimetres depth over the world’s land masses. Of
not have been lost to freshwater reserves unless the
this average annual runoff, approximately 28,000
dam or reservoir had been built. Figure 7.23 shows
cubic kilometres consists of flood runoff that
the growth of human water consumption since
cannot be stored and is of little value as a resource
1900.
to humans.

In general, it is only the continuous and stable

4500
runoff (called baseflow) that can used, although Evaporation from dams
Urban residences and services
dams do capture some of the floodwater, so this 4000
Withdrawal from water reserves (km3 per year)

Manufacturing
leaves about 15,000 cubic kilometres of freshwater Agriculture
per annum that could be used as a resource by 3500

humans. However, about 8,100 cubic kilometres of

3000
this water falls in remote areas where it cannot be
accessed, and where it will probably never be 2500
needed, such as the uninhabited parts of the
Amazon and Congo basins. This leaves a usable 2000
annual input of freshwater of 9,500 cubic
1500
kilometres (figure 7.22). This is the equivalent of
about 4,300 litres of water per person in the world 1000
per day.
500
At present, the world’s population consumes (or
uses) approximately 4,000 cubic kilometres of 0
freshwater each year, which is 9.32% of the total 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

annual freshwater runoff (or as some agencies such 7.23 Global water use by humans, 1900 to 2020 (projected).
as the FAO and the World Bank label this, the Source: Drawn from FAO data.

247
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
In the period between 1900 and 2010, global
human use of water by direct withdrawal (i.e.
ignoring evaporation from dams) increased by 7.3
times, while world population increased by 4.4
times during the same period. Therefore, water
withdrawal increased 1.7 times faster than
population growth, a reflection of the heavy water
demands made by manufacturing industries and
agriculture, especially water for irrigation to
support technological changes to raise farming
productivity. The fastest growth in water
consumption occurred between 1950 and 1980
because this was a period of rapid agricultural and
manufacturing expansion before serious 7.25 Agriculture is the largest consumer of the world’s water
consideration was given to resource sustainability. resources. Much of the world’s food production depends
heavily on flooding fields by irrigation at the right times of the
Over the past century, per capita human use of year, as seen here in barley fields near Vrang, Tajikistan. For
water resources has doubled, rising from about every kilogram of barley produced world-wide, 1,423 litres are
needed, and this becomes the embedded water content.
1,000 litres per person per day to over 2,000 litres
per person per day today, most of which is used for income countries use for all their drinking, washing
agricultural and manufacturing. However, the and household needs all day.
most rapid rate of growth in the use of water Embedded water is the quantity of water used in
resources today is for urban residences and the entire process of producing, selling and
services; this is because of the world’s rapid consuming a product. Embedded water is
urbanisation and growth of world cities. sometimes called virtual water because it is no
Figure 7.24 shows the ways in which water longer contained in the product. It is helpful to
resources are used in different continents of the understand the embedded water of a product
world. As the world’s population continues to because it helps to set priorities regarding the most
grow and economic activities become increasingly appropriate use for water. Figure 7.26 shows the
complex, the demand for water grows at an embedded water in a range of common foods and
accelerating rate. It is said that 100,000 litres of industrial materials.
water are required to make each motor vehicle, and In assessing the quantity of embedded water for
residents of high-income countries may use more any product, three types of water are considered.
water for their daily hot shower than people in low- Green water is precipitation that has fallen and is

World 69 19 12

Europe 21 57 22

Americas 51 34 15

Oceania 60 15 25

Asia 81 10 9

Africa 82 5 13

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent
Agriculture Manufacturing Urban residences and services
7.24 Water use in the world’s continents. Source: Drawn from FAO data.

248
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Coffee 132 litres per 125ml cup 18,900
Chocolate 1,700 litres per 100g bar 17,196
Beef 3,850 litres per 250g steak 15.415

Litres of water embedded per kilogram

Cotton 8,000 litres per pair of jeans 10,000
Tea 27 litres per 250ml cup 8,860
Pork 900 litres per 150g serve 5,988
Chicken 650 litres per 150g serve 4,325
Eggs 135 litres per egg 3,267
Olives 300 litres per 100g serve 3,015
Rice 250 litres per 100g serve 2,497
Soybeans 215 litres per 100g serve 2,145
Wheat 130 litres per 40g serve of breakfast cereal 1,827
Sugar cane 10.5 litres per sugar cube Green water 1,782
Barley 140 litres per 100g serve Grey water 1,423
Corn 225 litres per 250ml glass 1,222
Blue water
Milk 225 litres per 250ml glass 1,020
Apples 125 litres per apple 822
Bananas 160 litres per banana 790
Beer 74 litres per 250ml glass 298
Potatoes 260 litres per large bag of chips 287

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Litres of water
7.26 Embedded water in selected common foods and industrial raw materials. Figures in black at the right of the graph show how
many litres of water are needed to produce one kilogram of each product. Figures in red italics translate these figures into figures for
a typical serving. Statistics are global averages, and figures for individual countries vary considerably. Source: Drawn from FAO, UN and
American Geosciences Institute data.

being stored temporarily as surface or soil high-income countries, embedded water in food
moisture, or which is being stored in plants as they accounts for 65% of total water use in the country.
grow, before being released back to the atmosphere. Embedded water in the UK increases the daily
Green water is not available directly for human use, domestic use of water, which is about 150 litres per
although if there is a shortage of green water, it can person per day, to a total water consumption figure
lead to crop failures and scarcity of food. About of 3,420 litres per capita per day.
60% of precipitation takes the form of green water.
The inputs of embedded water vary from country
The remaining 40% of precipitation is blue water. to country according to the local climate and
Blue water is precipitation that has collected in growing conditions, the local varieties grown, the
lakes, rivers and groundwater, where is stored and extent and efficiency of irrigation and the
available for human use, at least until it evaporates production techniques employed (figure 7.27). It is
or flows to the ocean. estimated that 1 kilogram of oranges grown in
Australia contains 525 litres of water per kilogram,
The third type of water that should be included
which is three times more embedded water than
when considering embedded water is grey water.
oranges grown in the US (175 litres per kilogram).
Grey water is the wastewater produced by
The same oranges grown in Ghana would contain
agricultural, manufacturing, household and service
1,400 litres of embedded water per kilogram as
activities, provided it does not contain faecal
rainfall and transpiration are so high in hot, wet
contamination (sewage), in which case it is
environments. An extreme example is tomatoes; if
classified as black water and cannot be re-used.
grown in the UK, a kilogram of tomatoes would
Embedded water largely accounts for the difference contain 8 litres of embedded water, but a kilogram
between residential, or personal, water use (about of tomatoes grown in Indonesia would contain 340
150 litres per person per day) and total water use litres per kilogram of embedded water. If the
(4,300 litres per person per day). In the United tomatoes were grown in Ghana, each kilogram
Kingdom, which is fairly typical of industrialised, would contain about 720 litres of embedded water.

249
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0
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kilogram
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Litres per
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Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia
Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil
China China China China China
France France France France France
Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana
India India India India India
Apples

Chicken
Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia

Tobacco
Indonesia

Potatoes
Hemp fibre
Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy
Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia
UK UK UK UK UK
USA USA USA USA USA
World World World World World
Chapter 7

0
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Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia

Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil
China China China China China
France France France France France
Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana
India India India India India

250
Milk

Rice
Beef

Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia

Tomatoes
Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy
Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
Coffee (roasted)

Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia

UK UK UK UK UK
USA USA USA USA USA
World World World World World

good or do not trade it internationally. Source: Drawn from data in Chapagain & Hoekstra, 2004.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
100
200
300
400
500

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
375
750
1125
1500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000

kilogram
kilogram
kilogram
kilogram
kilogram

Litres per
Litres per
Litres per
Litres per
Litres per

Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia

Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil
Global trends in consumption

China China China China China

France France France France France
Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana Ghana
India India India India India
Beer

Wheat
Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
Oranges
Cotton lint

Tea (black)

Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy

Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia
UK UK UK UK UK

7.27 Embedded water differs depending on the country of production. Note that countries with no bar either do not produce the
USA USA USA USA USA
World World World World World
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
In the case of cotton from Turkmenistan, each
kilogram contains 10,000 litres of embedded water.
Therefore, when Turkmenistan exports this cotton,
it is exporting 10,000 litres of virtual water with
every kilogram of cotton as the water consumed by
the cotton production was no longer available for
other purposes. Some water-deficit territories such
as Palestine have a policy of discouraging the
export of oranges (which contain about 650 litres of
embedded water per orange) for this reason.

As we have seen, the availability and consumption

of water resources varies in quantity in different
parts of the world. When people living in an area
7.28 Water is pumped from the Karakum Canal in Turkmenistan
cannot obtain enough water resources to meet their
to irrigate cotton fields. Each kilogram of cotton represents
10,000 litres of embedded water, which is exported with all the needs, we say there is a situation of water scarcity.
cotton that is exported. Turkmenistan is one of the world’s four Water scarcity is not the same as a low annual
countries that consumes more than 1,000% of its internal water rainfall. Water scarcity is a measure of resource
resources. availability; it describes the relationship between
When goods are exported and imported, the the available water resources in an area and the
embedded (or virtual) water is also traded. water needs of the population living there. There
Advocates of sustainable development argue that it are many arid areas of the world that receive very
is environmentally destructive to import products little rainfall, but because so few people live in
with high levels of embedded water from countries those areas, there is sufficient water to meet their
that are prone to droughts (such as cotton from needs, and thus no water scarcity. Central Australia
Turkmenistan). They argue that the country is an example of an area that receives very little
importing the product with high quantities of rainfall but generally has sufficient water resources
embedded water are really exporting drought to to meet the needs of its sparsely distributed
the country that used large quantities of scarce population (figure 7.29).
water to produce the product.

Physical water scarcity

Economic water scarcity

Approaching physical water

scarcity
Little or no water scarcity

No data

7.29 Physical and economic water scarcity. Source: Based on data from International Water Management Institute.

251
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption

% of internal
water resources
>1,000%
Above world average

100-1,000%

50-100%

20-50%

10-20%
Below world average

5-10%

1-5%

<1%

No data

7.30 Annual freshwater withdrawals as a percentage of internal water resources, 2019. On this map, the world average figure has
been rounded to 10%, but its precise figure was 9.38% in 2019. Source: Drawn from Food and Agriculture Organisation, AQUASTAT data.

There are two forms of water scarcity, physical to exceed the amount available. Economic water
water scarcity and economic water scarcity. scarcity occurs especially in low-income countries
Physical water scarcity occurs when the natural where governments lack the funds to invest in
water resources in an area cannot meet the needs of infrastructure, such as sub-Saharan Africa, northern
the people living there. Physical water scarcity India and parts of Indochina (Laos, Cambodia and
occurs particularly in sparsely populated arid and Vietnam).
semi-arid areas such as north-west China, central
Figure 7.30 shows the relationship between water
Asia, parts of Australia, south-west United States
resource consumption and the water resources that
and northern Africa.
are available for each country. As we saw earlier,
Economic water scarcity arises when poor the world’s population currently uses about 4,000
management of the water resources in an area, such cubic kilometres of freshwater each year, which is
as under-investment in water storage and 9.38% of the total annual freshwater runoff
distribution systems, causes the demand for water available. In figure 7.30, countries shown in green
use less than the global average. The two main
reasons that a country might draw less water than
the global average are:

• the country may have a low population density

(a relatively small population inhabits a relatively
large area), and therefore the demands made on
the country’s available water resources are small
compared with the amount of water resources
available.

• the country may have a low level of economic

development and therefore the demands made
on water resources for manufacturing industries
and urban living are relatively unsophisticated.
7.31 Poor water quality is a major problem in many
communities, especially smaller villages away from major cities. Four countries consume more than 1,000% of their
This sign in the village of Vatia, American Samoa, warns internal water resources, which means they must
residents of the dangers of drinking local water without first
import water to function. The countries with the
boiling it.

252
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
highest demand for water compared with the Land and food resources
resources available (with their water consumption
expressed as a percentage of available internal In general people have settled our planet in places
water resources in parentheses) are Bahrain and in densities directly related to the available
(8,935%), Egypt (4,333%), United Arab Emirates natural resources. In the earliest days of human
(2,665%), Turkmenistan (1,989%), Saudi Arabia existence, this meant people settled near water and
(986%), Libya (832%) and Qatar (793%). All these hunting grounds. Hunting and gathering societies
countries are in arid or semi-arid areas and import moved within the forests, grasslands and coastal
large quantities of water from elsewhere to irrigate shores that gave them seasonal sustenance. Once
extensive areas of farmland or supply the needs of agriculture began to replace nomadic existence,
a highly urbanised population. fixed or sedentary settlements led to dense
concentrations of people along the valleys of the
QUESTION BANK 7D great, reliable river systems and in areas with
1. Why is the uneven distribution of water resources around
naturally fertile soils. This was especially true in
the world a problem? the mid-latitudes where temperatures were not
extreme, where a wide range of plants could grow
2. How does population growth exacerbate the problem of the and people could easily tolerate the seasonal range.
uneven distribution of the world’s water resources?
Fertile land and good soils became the key
3. Using the information in figure 7.22, describe (a) the
resources attracting human settlement, and they
amount of water available to humans as an accessible
resource, and (b) the amount of water that humans
remain significant today. Although modern
consume each year. transport systems can move the products of one
area to another, and trade is an integral part of the
4. With reference to figure 7.23, describe and account for the
global economy, land remains a key resource for
changing trends in (a) the quantity of water used globally
humans.
since 1900, and (b) the changing ways in which water has
been used since 1900.

5. With reference to figure 7.24, describe and explain the

different ways water is used in different continents of the
world.
1700
6. What is meant by the term ‘embedded water’? Percentage of
area under
7. What is the difference between green water, blue water, grey cultivation
0
water and black water? <10
10 to 25
8. Why does the amount of embedded water vary between the 25 to 50
50 to 75
same products produced in different countries? Refer to 75 to 90
>90
figure 7.27 to quote some figures for specific examples.

9. Explain why importing a product that contains large

quantities of embedded water from a drought-prone country
is considered as exporting drought.
2000
10. How is ‘water scarcity’ different from aridity, or low
Percentage of
rainfall? area under
cultivation
11. What is the difference between physical water scarcity and 0
<10
economic water scarcity? 10 to 25
25 to 50
50 to 75
12. With reference to figure 7.30, in about 200 words describe 75 to 90
>90
the world distribution of annual freshwater withdrawal as a
percentage of internal water resources. 7.32 Increase in the area of cropland world-wide from 1700 to
2000. Source: Alston, Babcock, and Pardey [eds.] (2010) The Shifting
13. Select three countries from different categories shown in Patterns of Agricultural Productivity Worldwide, CARD-MATRIC Electronic
figure 7.30, and suggest reasons why each country fits into Book, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, The Midwest
Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center, Iowa State
its broad category. University, Ames, Iowa.

253
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
countries. On the other hand, the area of land
devoted to agriculture in high-income countries is
mostly shrinking as technological changes such as
increased mechanisation raise productivity levels,
allowing more crops to be produced on smaller
Percentage areas of land.
change
More than -0.5% The trends in agricultural land as a percentage of
-0.5% to -0.25%
-0.25% to -0.05% total land area over the past half century in selected
-0.05% to +0.05%
+0.05% to +0.25%
+0.25% to +0.5%
continents and macroregions are shown in figure
More than +0.5% 7.35. Although the amount of agricultural land as a
7.33 Percentage change in the area of cropland world-wide percentage of total land area remained fairly
from 1960 to 2000. Source: Alston, Babcock, and Pardey [eds.] (2010)
constant world-wide, there were rises and falls in
The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Productivity Worldwide, CARD-
MATRIC Electronic Book, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, various parts of the world. The largest increases in
The Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center, Iowa areas devoted to agricultural land were in the
State University, Ames, Iowa.
Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and
As the global human population has increased, the
the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The largest
area of land used to grow crops has increased on
declines in areas devoted to agricultural land have
every continent in the world to feed the growing
been in Central Europe and the Baltics, the
population (figure 7.32). In recent decades, the
European Union, and North America. Land
pattern has been more mixed, with croplands
devoted to agriculture rose in East Asia and the
expanding in Russia, China, Eastern Europe and
Pacific from 1961 to the late 1990s, but has been
parts of the United States, but declining in Sub-
declining since that time.
Saharan Africa, south-eastern Australia, eastern
Brazil, Central America and parts of South-East At the same time as these fluctuations in land
Asia (figure 7.33). devoted to agriculture were occurring, world food
production rose steadily. This is shown in figure
To a large extent, changes in the area of land
7.36, where the trends are shown as index figures to
devoted to agricultural activity this century reflect
enable comparisons to be made between the
levels of economic development (figure 7.34). As a
changes in various parts of the world. To obtain
generalisation, the area of land devoted to
index figures, the food production in every part of
agriculture in low-income countries is expanding
the world is scaled to 100 for a particular year (in
slightly, reflecting the importance of farming as the
this case 2005), and then percentage rises and falls
major component of the economies of developing

% change in
agricultural area

+2.5% to +14.0%

+0.5% to +2.5%

0 to +0.5%

-0.5% to 0

-3.0% to -0.5%

-22.0 % to -3.0%

No data

7.34 Change in the area devoted to agriculture, 2000 to 2015. Source: Drawn from World Bank and FAO data.

254
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
65

60

55

50
% of la nd a rea

45

40

35

30

25
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
World Low income countries Middle income countries High income countries
Central Europe and the Baltics East Asia the Pacific European Union Latin America and the Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa North America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
7.35 Agricultural land as a percentage of total land area in selected regions and groups of countries, 1961 to 2016.
Source: Drawn from Food and Agriculture Organisation data.

150

135

120

105 2 0 05 = 1 00
In de x 20 05 = 100

20 05 = 1 00

90

75

60

45

30

15
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
World Low income countries Middle income countries High income countries
Central Europe and the Baltics East Asia the Pacific European Union Latin America and the Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa North America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
7.36 World food production in selected regions and groups of countries, 1961 to 2014. Data is shown as index figures, 2005 = 100.
Source: Drawn from Food and Agriculture Organisation data.

255
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
from the base year are plotted. For example, using
the statistics in figure 7.36, food production in
North America in 1961 was 45% the level of food
production in North America in 2005, but the
equivalent figure for South Asia was 30%.
Therefore, we can conclude that food production in
South Asia rose more than North America between
1961 and 2005, and food production in both these
regions rose more than in the European Union
during the same period. Similarly, we can see that
the largest increases in food production since 2005
have occurred in low-income countries and South
Asia, while the smallest increases since 2005 have
occurred in the European Union and high-income 7.37 Mechanisation has increased farm productivity in many
countries. parts of the world. This mechanical thresher is in the Nile Valley
on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt.
Increased food production from the same area of
land indicates that farm productivity has risen. In
the figures mentioned above, we can see that farm
productivity has risen globally. Looking more
closely at some regional examples, we see that food
production in the European Union has remained
fairly stagnant since 1984 (figure 7.36), but the area
devoted to agriculture in the European Union has
decreased during the same period (figure 7.35).
Therefore, we can conclude that farming
productivity has been increasing in the European
Union since 1984. Similarly, while the amount of
land used for agriculture has remained fairly steady
in South Asia since 1961 (figure 7.35), food
7.38 These farmers have brought their chickens and ducks to
production in South Asia has increased more than
the market on the outskirts of Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, to sell
four-fold during the same period (figure 7.36), their produce directly to the public. This activity is typical of an
showing a significant increase in farm productivity. early stage of commercialisation where farmers are emerging
from subsistence production into the market economy.
Reasons for increasing farm productivity world-
wide include:

• Technological changes have increased the level

of mechanisation on farms in most parts of the
world. Machinery provides farmers with the
means to perform tasks such as ploughing and
harvesting much more quickly.

• Purchased inputs such as pesticides and

chemical fertilisers have become more
commonplace on farms around the world, and
these increase yields by removing competitor
plant and insect species while boosting the
nutrient base for the growing plants.
7.39 When roads are built to link remote areas with towns and
• Farm sizes have been growing in most parts of markets, spatial integration occurs as farmers have the means to
the world as consolidation of smaller properties transport larger quantities of produce for sale. This small van is
bringing crops grown in the Baliem Valley for sale in the market
occurs. Larger farms allow greater use of
in Wamena, West Papua, Indonesia.

256
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
machinery and enable economies of scale to be • Improved spatial integration through the
achieved. construction of roads and railways enables
farmers to transport their produce cheaply to
• Increasing commercialisation of farms, and a
more markets, increasing sales and profits.
commensurate decline in subsistence farming,
provides farmers with a financial incentive to Whether they are family farmers or large
increase production in an efficient manner. agribusinesses, commercial farmers produce food
with the primary aim of earning an income by
0.75 selling their produce. Farmers will generally sell
their produce to whoever is able to pay the highest
price. Changing diets, especially in middle-income
s countries, is changing the pattern of demand for
calorie
Degree of similarity (homogeneity)

food, and this is turn is changing the nature of

some food production as farmers respond to new
weight protein and emerging food preferences.

0.50 fat
Research headed by Colin Khoury has shown that
people’s diets around the world are becoming more
homogenised, or increasingly similar. Figure 7.40
shows the extent to which diets around the world
are converging. A degree of similarity of 1.0 would
indicate identical diets in all parts of the world, and
a degree of similarity of 0 would indicate no
common elements in people’s diets in different
0.25 countries. Khoury’s research shows that diets are
converging for all types of food, and consequently
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 people’s weights are also converging (i.e. weight
7.40 Global change in the similarity (homogeneity) of food in differences between countries are decreasing). The
diets around the world, 1960 to 2010. Source: Re-drawn from Colin dietary homogenisation shown in figure 7.40
K Khoury et.al. (2014) Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and represents a global average convergence of 36%
the implications for food security, Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences of the United States of America, pp.4001-4006. during the 50 years from 1960 to 2010.

Annual change
in meat
consumption
per capita from
1961 to 2011

More than +0.0065

+0.0045 to +0.0065

+0.0025 to +0.0045

+0.0005 to +0.0025

0 to +0.0005

Reduction up to -0.001

No data

7.41 World convergence and homogenisation of food in diets around the world, 1960 to 2010. Larger changes (in darker green)
indicate countries where the diet is becoming more similar to global average diets. This map shows the annual changes that have
built up into the trend lines shown in figure 7.40. Source: Re-drawn from Colin K Khoury et.al. (2014) Increasing homogeneity in global food
supplies and the implications for food security, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, pp.4001-4006.

257
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption

7.42 In many countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 7.43 Wheat flour and rice imported from Australia dominate this
western food (including fast food restaurants) is seen as section of a supermarket in Mount Hagen, Papua New Guinea.
modern, fashionable and desirable. These fast food restaurants Neither wheat flour nor rice are traditional elements of the diet
with US origins are in Shenzhen, China. for Papua New Guineans, whose traditional food staples are
root crops such as sweet potato, yams and taro. The uptake of
As dietary homogenisation occurs, significant
these ‘new’ foods is evidence of dietary convergence and
associated trends are that more people are homogenisation in Papua New Guinean diets.
consuming more calories, protein and fat, and
Countries where the national diets are converging
people around the world are relying on a narrower
most rapidly towards the global average are those
range of major food crops such as wheat, maize,
where traditional diets differed substantially from
soybean, meat and dairy products.
the rest of the world (mainly in Asia and Africa),
While these food crops have helped overcome indicating that homogenisation of diets generally
world hunger, the reduced global diversity of diets means adopting more Western diets. Where
is accelerating global rates of diet-related diseases Western countries show homogenisation of diets,
such as obesity, heart disease and diabetes, even in this usually indicates increasing consumption of
countries where food supplies remain limited. foods that are traditionally non-Western (such as
Increased world-wide consumption of energy- rice) and the growing culinary impact of
dense foods such as soybean, sunflower oil and immigration from non-Western countries.
palm oil has especially increased health risks in
As countries develop economically, dietary patterns
countries that did not have diet-related health
change in a process known as the nutritional
problems until recently. As a result of dietary
transition, which is a major cause of global dietary
homogenisation, wheat is now a major staple food
homogenisation. In addition to the changes in
in 97.4% of countries, rice is a major staple in 90.8%
calorie, protein and fat intake noted above, the
of countries and soybean has become a significant
nutritional transition involves abandoning
food in 74.3% of countries. As these foods have
traditional diets and consuming more sugars and
grown in importance, foods that have declined in animal-based foods, especially meat. Several
significance include regional specialties such as factors contribute to the nutritional transition in
sweet potatoes, yams, cassava and oca.
middle-income countries, including:
Dietary convergence reduces the range of food
• Rising incomes give people access to energy
crops grown, which makes humanity increasingly
dense foods that were previously unaffordable.
vulnerable to climate change-related threats such
as drought, diseases and insect pests. As the range • Western diets are seen as being more modern and
of crops grown becomes less diverse, the world’s fashionable, and thus eating meat and fast foods
food supply becomes less resilient to hazards. become aspirations for upwardly mobile people.
Some parts of the world are converging towards the
• As economic development occurs in middle-
global mean more quickly than others, and the income countries, trade links develop and a
geographical distribution of these differences is greater range of Western and other foreign foods
shown in figure 7.41. becomes available.

258
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
• Rising farm productivity makes some foods more
affordable, widening access to a growing middle
class.

The nutrition transition in China has led to a

substantial increase in meat consumption over
recent decades. Today, China consumes about 28%
of the world’s meat, which represents a 800%
increase since 1975. The increase in demand for
meat, and especially beef, in China has a global
impact because the additional beef production is
consuming a growing proportion of the world’s
grain production for cattle feed. Because of the
increasing affluence of Chinese consumers, Chinese
7.45 Increasing meat consumption in diets in most parts of the
beef farmers can offer higher prices for grain to feed world is one aspect of dietary homogenisation. Rising cattle
their cattle than poorer people elsewhere can afford numbers mean there is greater competition for grain supplies in
to feed themselves. many countries, raising the prices for low-income people. These
cattle are grazing on a dry plain west of Ihosy, Madagascar.
There are concerns that if this trend continues, then
China will need to import vast quantities of grain to QUESTION BANK 7E
feed its cattle, driving up global grain prices and
1. Why were land and water such important resources for
perhaps causing widespread malnutrition among people in pre-industrial societies?
the world’s poor who will no longer be able to
2. With reference to figure 7.32, describe the areas in the world
afford basic foods such as grain. In 2016, in an
where cropland has expanded significantly between 1700
attempt to curb the accelerating demand for meat in
and 2000.
China, the Chinese Government announced a plan
to reduce meat consumption by 50%. Dietary 3. Using the information in figure 7.33, identify the parts of
guidelines were issued recommending that each the world where (a) cropland expanded significantly
person should consume between 40 and 75 grams between 1960 and 2000, and (b) cropland contracted
significantly between 1960 and 2000. Suggest reasons for
of meat per day, an initiative that was also designed
the different trends.
to reduce China’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Finland
Iceland 528
Russia
Canada 524
282
356
South
France
Korea
USA Spain 469
Change in meat 227
432 367 China
consumption Bermuda 453 Japan
per capita from 573 Saudi 186
Mexico India
1961 to 2011 Arabia
294 17
246 Vietnam
13x to 15x higher Myanmar
424
206
5x to 6x higher Côte
Kenya
d’Ivoire
81 Indonesia
2x to 5x higher Brazil 49
Angola 68
427 171
1.5x to 2x higher
Australia
increase 492
0 to 1.5x higher

0 to 1.5X lower decrease Argentina New

570
Zealand
No data 501

7.44 Change in meat consumption per capita from 1961 to 2011. Figures shown for selected countries are consumption of meat per
day per capita (in calories) in 2011. Note that China eats half as much meat per capita as the United States, but because two-thirds of
its meat has traditionally been high-fat pork, it consumes more total meat calories per capita. Demand for leaner meat is now rising in
China. With a daily meat consumption of 17 calories per person per day, India’s meat consumption is the lowest in the world, partly
because of the high proportion of vegetarians in the country. Source: Drawn from National Geographic data.

259
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
4. Compare the patterns shown in figures 7.34 and 1.21, and significant sources of energy because they
describe the relationship between changes in the area contained more joules of energy per kilogram than
devoted to agriculture and the level of economic biofuels. Mining of coal expanded, reducing the
development. unit cost of each unit that was mined as economies
5. With reference to figure 7.35, which shows agricultural land of scale were gained through mechanisation.
as a percentage of total land between 1961 and 2016,
Fossil fuels became increasingly important during
describe (a) the overall world trend, (b) the difference
the 1900s as mechanised transport began
between low income, middle income and high income
countries, (c) the regions with the largest increases, and (d)
consuming oil and petroleum. Fossil fuel use
the areas with the largest decreases. expanded further as natural gas became used
increasingly as a source of energy. Projections of
6. What is an ‘index figure’?
energy use to 2025 suggest that 87% of energy used
7. With reference to figure 7.36, identify the regions that have 500
(a) the largest rates of increase in food production, and (b)
Nuclear Electricity
the lowest rates of increase in food production between 450
Hydroelectricity
1961 and 2016. Suggest reasons for the differences.

Global energy consumption (in exajoules)

Natural Gas
400
Crude Oil
8. What is meant by ‘farm productivity’? Which parts of the Coal
world are experiencing the largest increases in farm 350
Biofuels
productivity, and which areas are experiencing the slowest 300
rates of increases in farm productivity?
250
9. What factors are causing the productivity of farms to
improve in most parts of the world? 200

10. What is meant by ‘dietary homogenisation’ and ‘dietary 150

convergence’?
100
11. Outline the evidence that suggests dietary homogenisation
is occurring world-wide. 50

12. With reference to figure 7.41, identify the countries where 0

(a) dietary homogenisation is occurring most rapidly, and 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
(b) where dietary homogenisation is not occurring. 7.46 World energy consumption, by source, 1800 to 2020
(extrapolated). Source: Vaclav Smil (2010) Energy Transitions,
13. Suggest reasons for the different trends you identified in the updated with OECD and IEA data.
previous question. 70
14. What factors cause dietary homogenisation?
Global energy consumption per capita (in gigajoules)

Nuclear Electricity
60 Hydroelectricity
15. What problems can arise from dietary homogenisation? Natural Gas
Crude Oil
16. With reference to figure 7.44, write 250 words to describe Coal
50
the pattern of changes in meat consumption between 1961 Biofuels
and 2011.
40
17. Describe the problems that can arise as meat consumption
increases.
30
Energy resources
20
Figure 7.46 shows the trend in world energy
consumption since 1800, and figure 7.47 shows the
10
same trends adjusted for population growth. It can
be seen that the main source of energy in the world
in 1800 was biofuels, which were fuels obtained 0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
directly from living matter such as fuelwood,
7.47 World energy consumption per capita, by source, 1800 to
animal manure and whale oil. As energy needs
2020 (extrapolated). Source: Vaclav Smil (2010) Energy Transitions,
grew in the late 1800s, fossil fuels began to become updated with OECD and IEA data.

260
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
North America

South and Central America

Europe and Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia-Pacific

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent
Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear energy Hydroelectricity Renewables

7.48 Energy consumption by region, 2018. Source: Drawn from BP data.

at that time will still be hydrocarbon fuels — oil, Like most resources, energy resources are seldom
coal and natural gas. located where they need to be used. Oil production
and oil consumption provide an example of these
The consumption of different types of energy
differences as there is a marked difference in the
resources varies in different parts of the world
locations where oil is produced compared with the
(figure 7.48). Coal is the dominant energy type in
places where it is consumed. This can be seen in
the Asia-Pacific region, where it makes up almost
figures 7.50 and 7.51.
50% of energy consumption. Oil is the dominant
fuel in Africa, North and South America, and it is Since hydrocarbon-based energy resources such as
significant in the Middle East. Natural gas is the coal, oil and natural gas have helped to generate
dominant fuel used in the Middle East, and in wealth and economic development during the last
Europe and Eurasia. There is significant use of two centuries, this uneven distribution has
hydroelectricity in South and Central America contributed to today’s wide gaps in affluence.
where the combination of mountains and rivers Where countries have a surplus of natural resources
suits this form of energy. Europe and Eurasia is the such as coal and oil after their own needs have been
region with the most diverse range of energy fulfilled, wealth can be generated by exports.
sources, while the least diverse region is the Figure 7.52 shows how the imbalance is resolved in
Middle East where oil and gas together account for the case of oil through international trade.
97% of the energy used.

7.49 Oblique aerial view of the Jewitt surface coal mine between Houston and Dallas, Texas, USA, and the nearby coal-based power
plant.

261
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
100
Asia-Pacific
90 Africa
Middle East
80 Europe and Eurasia
South and Central America
70 North America
Million barrels per day

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7.50 Oil production by region, 1965 to 2018. Source: Drawn from BP data
100
Asia-Pacific
90 Africa
Middle East
80 Europe and Eurasia
South and Central America
70 North America
Million barrels per day

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7.51 Oil consumption by region, 1965 to 2018. Source: Drawn from BP data

Small countries, such as Brunei with only about was the key to their current success, but they have
429,000 people and Kuwait with some 4.2 million, not had similar luck with reserves of petroleum.
are able to use the wealth from their relatively huge
New technology has brought other countries into
surplus to meet the needs of their people.
oil production as techniques have been developed
Although the distribution of wealth in these
to allow deeper drilling under the oceans.
countries and other oil producing states is
Venezuela was one of the first countries to drill
extremely uneven, there is no reason for people to
large quantities of oil from under shallow, near-
live in dire poverty. Other countries such as Japan,
shore waters in protected bays and it is still
France and Germany, which have to buy huge
producing from some offshore wells along with
quantities of oil each year, are able to do this
onshore drilling in the Orinoco Basin.
because of manufacturing wealth and expertise that
they can sell. In the cases of France and Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom are producing
access to coal during the early industrial revolution oil from under the very turbulent waters of the

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption

United States

Canada

Mexico

South and Central America

Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Middle East

Asia-Pacific

7.52 Major international flows of oil through trade, 2018. Figures are in million tonnes of oil. Note that although Greenland is
geographically part of North America, it is included in ‘Europe and Eurasia’ for political and economic reasons when considering oil
flows. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2019.

North Sea. There have been some catastrophes as

severe storms have toppled platforms, helicopters
have crashed and supply vessels have sunk, but the
value of the resource is so great that the effort to
extend human capacity to reach new reservoirs of
oil continues.

It is not only the sources of natural resources that

are distributed unevenly around the world, but the
pattern of resource consumption is also uneven.
For example, the pattern of energy use per capita is
shown in figure 7.54. This global distribution
mirrors the pattern of economic development in
the world quite closely, as reflected by the
indicators of development shown in figures 1.21 to 7.53 Although fossil fuel use in low-income countries is
1.23 in chapter 1. increasing in importance, infrastructure is often poor. This view
shows a typical Total fuel outlet on the outskirts of Burkina
The trends shown in figures 7.46 and 7.47 have led Faso’s capital city, Ouagadougou, where petrol is sold from
many researchers to speculate about the question of bottles.
when oil production will peak and begin to decline. term peak oil is used to define the point in time
On the assumption that oil reserves are finite, when the maximum rate of global petroleum
economists predict that the combination of rising extraction is reached, after which the rate of
demand and falling supply of oil will drive oil production enters terminal decline.
prices upwards, making alternative fuels relatively
Predicting the timing of peak oil is extremely
more attractive, thus reducing the need for oil as
difficult because the number of variables is so great,
other sources of energy grow in importance. The
and the variables are changing so rapidly. Some of

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption

kg of oil
equivalent
per capita
7,000+

5,000 - 7,000

3,000 - 5,000

2,000 - 3,000

1,000 - 2,000

500 - 1,000

0 - 500

7.54 Energy use per capita, 2018. This map shows the annual consumption of commercial energy divided by the population of each
country, expressed as kilograms of oil equivalent. Note that countries with low figures per capita may use significant quantities of
non-commercial energy, such as fuelwood. Source: Drawn from OECD and IEA data.

the variables include price of oil, the known formed. Rising oil prices indicated increasing
reserves, the locations of the reserves, the impact of scarcity, leading to predictions at the time that peak
oil substitutes, and so on. Researchers have been oil would occur some time between 2005 and 2025.
speculating about the date of peaking of world oil The discussion became more intense when it was
production ever since oil became an important fuel thought that oil production in the United States had
in the late 1800s. As little was known at the time peaked in 1972 (at 11.185 million barrels per day),
about oil reserves, or even the types of geological declining steadily after that time down to 6.785
areas where oil is found, the early predictions were million barrels per day in 2008. However, high oil
simply guesses. prices at that time began to stimulate production,
and since 2009, US oil production has been rising
One of the first serious studies to look at a large
again. An additional stimulus to oil production in
number of variables affecting global resource use
the United States was a legislative change lifting a
was the book Limits to Growth, written by Donella
ban on American oil exports that was in place
Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jørgen Randers
between 1975 and 2016. By 2018, production had
and published in 1972. In that book, the use of
reached a record figure of 15.311 million barrels per
complex computer models predicted that the
day, up from 12.340 million barrels per day in 2016.
world’s supply of oil would run out in 1992.
This provides a good example of the way political
Needless to say, the prediction was wrong, but it
policies can affect the supply of energy resources.
did cause widespread concern at the time.
Discussion of peak oil became less common from
The predictions about oil being used up by 1992 in
the early 2010s onwards when oil prices dropped
Limits to Growth were wrong because the computer
steadily in response to rising supplies on the world
modelling underestimated the technological
markets, suggesting that there was no imminent
improvements that would find new ways of
shortage of supplies (figure 7.55). Oil prices
extracting oil from previously uneconomic sources.
generally reflect supply and demand, so prices rise
The model also underestimated the number of new
when demand rises or supply shrinks (such as
oil supplies that would be discovered.
during a war or political conflict). Prices fall when
The concept of peak oil became very popular in the demand falls (such as during an economic
early 2000s on the basis that oil supplies were finite recession) or when the supply expands (such as
and the rate at which people were using oil was when oil producers compete with each other to
faster than the rate at which new oil was being gain market share). The discovery of new oil

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Fears of shortage in Post-war Yom Kippur War Asian financial
World events
the US reconstruction crisis
Russian oil Iranian US
exports began revolution invasion
Loss of Iranian Iraq of Iraq
Growth of
Pennsyl- Sumatra Discovery of Venezuelan supplies invades
vanian oil production Spindletop, production Kuwait ‘Arab
boom begins Texas Suez crisis spring’
East Texas
oilfield
discovered
140

2018 US $ $ money of the day

120

100

80
US $

60

40

20

0
1861 1867 1873 1879 1885 1891 1897 1903 1909 1915 1921 1927 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017
7.55 Crude oil prices, 1861 to 2018, in US dollars. The green line shows the price of oil in US dollars at the time. The red line shows
the price of oil in US dollars adjusted to 2018 values. Sources: Data for 1861 to 1944 are US averages. Data for 1945 to 1983 are for Arabian Light
oil posted at Ras Tanura. Data for 1984 to 2018 are Brent dated.

supplies, including new technical possibilities to Nuclear power has been used as an alternative
obtain oil from new sources such as oil shale, energy resource to fossil fuels since the first power
suggests that the ratio of oil production to oil station opened in Obninsk, Russia, in 1954.
reserves is remaining fairly constant for the world According to the IAEA (International Atomic
as a whole, although some regional differences do Energy Agency), today there are almost 450 nuclear
occur (figure 7.56). In 2018, the reserves-to- power stations producing electricity across the
production ratio indicated that the world as a world, with more than 60 additional nuclear power
whole had about 50 years supply of oil remaining stations under construction (plus two being
at current rates of consumption and technological decommissioned). Of the world’s electricity
change. production, 14% comes from nuclear power, and in
some countries such as France, Hungary, Slovakia
If and when fossil fuel energy resources become
and Ukraine, more than half the country’s
scarcer, their prices will rise. This will increase the
electricity comes from nuclear power (table 7.1).
incentives to conduct research into new forms of
energy resources, which become comparatively Nuclear power stations that have been established
more affordable when fossil fuel prices increase. for decades have used the process of nuclear
On the other hand, if fossil fuel prices are low, as fission to produce electricity. In the process of
they were in the mid-2010s, alternative energy nuclear fission, a uranium-235 atom absorbs a
resources are economically less competitive. neutron and splits into two neutrons, giving off
considerable energy as it does so. The energy

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
140 140
North America
South and Central America 136
Europe and Eurasia 120
120
Middle East

N u m ber o f y e ar s
Africa 100
Asia-Pacific
100
World 80
N u mbe r of y e a r s

80 60 72

40
60
39 42
20 29
40 17
0
c a ca sia st ica
cifi
c
eri eri ura eE
a
Afr
m Am E dd
l -Pa
20 rthA t ral a nd Mi Asia
No Ce
n e
rop
nd Eu
ut ha
0 So
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7.56 Reserves-to-production (R:P) ratios by region. The left line graph shows the changes in R:P ratio from 1985 to 2018. The right
bar graph shows the R:P ratios in 2018. Source: Drawn from BP data.

produced by one gram of uranium-235 is the Despite its benefits, nuclear power is very
equivalent of almost three tonnes of coal, without controversial because of its perceived hazards and
any greenhouse gas emissions and with less problems. The concerns surrounding uranium
radioactivity produced than the processes in a coal- production include:
fired power station. Uranium is cheap to obtain,
• Some of the wastes produced in nuclear energy
and the BGR (German Federal Institute for
generation are toxically radioactive and have
Geosciences and Natural Resources – Bundesanstalt
long half-lives which are, in the case of some
für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) estimates
wastes, more than 100,000 years. The long half-
that at the current rate of consumption, reserves of
lives make disposal or safe storage problematic
uranium would last more than 200 years. Most
and costly.
uranium reserves are in Australia (23%), Canada
(12%), Kazakhstan (10%), Russia (8%) and the • Some significant accidents have released
United States (7%). radioactive gases and dust into the atmosphere,
leading to a widespread perception that nuclear
power plants are dangerous. Three well-known
leakages occurred from nuclear power plants at
Three Mile Island (USA) in 1979, Chernobyl
(Ukraine) in 1986 and Fukushima (Japan) in 2011.

• Although nuclear power stations are cheap to

operate, they are costly to construct.

• In some countries, there may be a security risk

that radioactive materials could be stolen and
used to make nuclear weapons or sold to terrorist
organisations.

New research is opening up future possibilities for

7.57 The section of the No.4 reactor at Chernobyl, Ukraine, that power generation using nuclear fusion, which
exploded in 1986 is now encased in a thick concrete offers possibilities for cheap, almost limitless
sarcophagus that is designed to stop the release of radioactive
carbon-free energy. Nuclear fusion is the same
material that still lies within the reactor. The level of radioactivity
in the area in 2016 was half that of 1986, and the nuclear power process that fuels the Sun’s energy, and it occurs as
plant site is scheduled to be cleaned up by 2065.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) fuse • There are no carbon emissions or other
together at very high temperatures – about 100 greenhouse gas emissions. The only by-products
million degrees Celsius – to form helium. Fusion of fusion reactions are small quantities of helium,
power has a number of significant potential a naturally occurring inert atmospheric gas with
benefits: no adverse effects.
Table 7.1 • The fuels needed for fusion, deuterium and
Nuclear power stations, 2018
tritium are so abundant and easily obtained that
Shutting Under Electricity they would last millions of years without
Reactors
down const’n supplied in 2018
Country shortages.
Capacity % of
Number Number Number TWe-h
MWe total
Argentina 3 1,633 1 6.5 4.7
• It is highly efficient, as one kilogram of fusion
Armenia 1 375 1.9 25.6
fuel produces the same amount of energy as ten
million kilograms of fossil fuels.
Bangladesh 0 N/A 2 N/A N/A
Belarus 0 N/A 2 N/A N/A • Fusion does not produce any radioactive wastes.
Belgium 7 5,918 27.3 39.0 Only components in the power station become
Brazil 2 1,884 1 14.8 2.7 radioactive, but the half-life of this radioactivity
Bulgaria 2 1,966 15.4 34.7 is a relatively short one hundred years.
Canada 19 13,554 94.5 14.9 • The small quantities of fuel used for fusion mean
China 46 42,858 11 277.1 4.2 that a large-scale nuclear accident would not be
Czechia 6 3,932 28.3 34.5 possible.
Finland 4 2,784 1 21.9 32.4
• The costs of fusion power are estimated to be
France 58 63,130 1 395.9 71.7
similar to other sources of energy that are used
Germany 7 9,515 1 71.9 11.7
today.
Hungary 4 1,902 14.9 50.6
India 22 6,255 7 35.4 3.1
Renewable energy sources such as wind, the sun,
tidal movements and wave action hold the promise
Iran 1 915 6.3 2.1
of low pollution alternatives to fossil fuels. They
Japan 42 39,752 1 2 49.3 6.2
are especially attractive to countries that want to
Mexico 2 1,552 13.2 5.3
reduce reliance on imported energy resources, and
Netherlands 1 482 3.3 3.0
where pollution-free energy is desired. One of the
Pakistan 5 1,318 2 9.3 6.8 great advantages of most renewable energy
Romania 2 1,300 10.5 17.2 resources is that they have a wide distribution.
Russia 37 28,177 6 191.3 17.9 Most places have enough sunlight, wind, rainfall or
Slovakia 4 1,814 2 13.8 55.0 plant growth to provide some form of renewable
Slovenia 1 688 5.5 35.9
South Africa 2 1,860 10.6 4.7
South Korea 24 22,444 4 127.1 23.7
Spain 7 7,121 53.4 20.4
Sweden 8 8,613 65.9 40.3
Switzerland 5 3,333 24.5 37.7
Taiwan 6 5,052 2 26.7 11.4
Turkey 0 N/A 1 N/A N/A
UAE 0 N/A 4 N/A N/A
UK 15 8,923 1 59.1 17.7
Ukraine 15 13,107 2 79.5 53.0
USA 99 99,680 2 808.0 19.3
World 457 401,837 2 54 2,563.0 14.0
7.58 Biofuels in forms such as fuelwood and animal dung
MWe = electrical megawatts. TWe-h = electrical terawatt-hours. Note
that 1 terawatt-hour = 106 megawatt-hours. N/A = not applicable. remain significant sources of energy in low-income countries,
Source: IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). such as Benin, seen here in a small village south of Parakou.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
700 1000
Nuclear energy Hydroelectricity
900
600
800
Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Million tonnes of oil equivalent

500 700
Asia-Pacific
600
400 Africa
Middle East
500
Europe and Eurasia
300 South and Central America 400
North America
200 300

200 North America South and Central America

100 Europe and Eurasia Middle East
100
Africa Asia-Pacific
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

300 140
Wind power Solar energy
Asia-Pacific 120 Asia-Pacific
250
Africa Africa
Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Middle East Middle East
Europe and Eurasia 100 Europe and Eurasia
200
South and Central America South and Central America
North America 80 North America

150
60

100
40

50
20

0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

100 600
Biofuels (commercial) All renewable energy
90
Asia-Pacific 500 Asia-Pacific
80 Africa Africa
Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Million tonnes of oil equivalent

Middle East Middle East

70 Europe and Eurasia Europe and Eurasia
400
South and Central America South and Central America
60
North America North America
50 300

40
200
30

20
100
10

0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7.59 Changes in the consumption of non-hydrocarbon-based energy, 1990 to 2018. ‘All renewable energy‘ includes electricity
generated by wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and waste sources. Sources: FO Lichts; BP, US Energy Information Administration.

268
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption

7.61 A small commercial market selling fuelwood in Wamena,

West Papua, Indonesia.

7.62 This advertisement in Bairiki, Kiribati, is promoting the

economic and health benefits of using biofuels produced from
7.60 This biogas plant on the Chonsamri Co-operative farm locally grown coconuts. Biofuels represent a way for low-
between Pyongyang and Nampo, North Korea, uses animal income countries to overcome the high costs of importing fossil
manure to produce methane gas that is used as a fuel. fuels by substituting alternative energy sources.
energy. Furthermore, many types of renewable
energy do not require expensive advanced
technology.

Biomass in one form – fuelwood – has been used

for centuries and remains a highly significant
energy source in many low-income countries.
Other important forms of biomass include grain
and sugar crops, oil-bearing plants (such as
sunflowers), garbage, and wastes from animals and
plants. Biomass is converted into fuel in a variety
of ways, including burning, gasification and
anaerobic digestion. In China, human sewage is
collected in the cities and taken to farms, or
collected directly on farms, for use as fertiliser as
7.63 This petrol station in Curitiba, Brazil, sells ethanol for less
well as making fuel. The value of this fertiliser is
than two-thirds the price of fossil fuel based petroleum. Brazil is
shown by the fact that the most productive farms in the world’s second largest producer of ethanol, which is a
China encircle the cities that provide an abundant biofuel produced from sugar cane.
supply of sewage.

269
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
Hydroelectricity can be thought of as a form of – are quite high. Once the dam is finished, the
solar energy, because the sun drives the water cycle ongoing costs of obtaining power are quite small.
that provides the precipitation. Globally,
Hydroelectricity is generally thought of as ‘clean’
hydroelectricity is the most widely used form of
power because it does not cause the pollution of
renewable energy. Some countries with abundant
coal, oil and nuclear power. However, the
rainfall and mountainous areas for water storage,
construction of large dams and reservoirs does
such as New Zealand and Nepal, produce more
cause some severe impacts on the environment, and
than half their electricity using hydro power.
for this reason it is becoming increasingly
Hydroelectricity is generated when water falls
controversial. Among the environmental effects of
downwards over turbines that spin around. This
large dams are the following:
means that the initial costs of obtaining
hydroelectricity – building the dam, installing the • dams drown river valleys, and the weight of the
turbines and constructing a network of power lines water can cause earthquakes and tremors;

• dams catch sediments flowing down the river,

causing siltation upstream of the dam and
erosion scouring downstream;

• drowning of the valley destroys large areas of

vegetation and many animal habitats;

• in inhabited areas, many people may have to

move their homes or abandon productive
farming land to make way for the dam’s lake;

• lakes forming behind the dam are often acidic

and anaerobic (oxygen-starved) where water
floods valleys with vegetation; and

• the bottom of the lake is likely to be so cold and

dark that it is lifeless.
7.64 The Itaipú Dam on the Paraná River, which marks the
border between Brazil and Paraguay, is almost 8 kilometres Despite these problems, many countries are
wide. The dam’s reservoir holds 29 cubic kilometres of water continuing to build large dams. Perhaps the most
and can generate about 87 million kilowatt hours of spectacular example of a large dam presently under
hydroelectricity per year.
construction is the controversial Three Gorges
Dam on China’s Yangtze River. The dam holds a
lake that is 650 kilometres long with 39.3 billion
cubic metres of water. The waters of the dam have
flooded 657 mines and factories, 23,800 hectares of
farming land, and forced 1,130,000 people to move.
On the positive side, the dam is producing up to 89
billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectricity per year,
which is the equivalent of burning 40 million
tonnes of coal.

There are various ways of managing hydroelectric

facilities to conserve the water resource. For
example, it is possible to build several dams on the
7.65 The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River near same river, multiplying the productivity of the
Yichang, China, is the world’s largest hydroelectric dam, and the water flowing through. Another technique to
world’s largest power station with an installed capacity of conserve resources is to develop pump-storage
22,500 MWe. The Three Gorges Dam project has been dams, which work well when hydroelectric dams
controversial because of its environmental consequences.

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 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
are used to supplement coal power stations rather
than replace them. Coal-fired power stations take
several days to ‘power-up’, and so they are left
running day and night. On the other hand,
hydroelectric dams can respond well to sudden
demands for power because they produce
electricity with only a few minutes warning, simply
by turning open a valve. At night, demand for
electricity is much less than during the day, and so
coal stations are generating electricity for which
there is no immediate need. A pump-storage dam
uses some of this surplus power to pump water
uphill from one lake to another during this time.
This means the water is effectively recycled and 7.66 The Krafla geothermal power plant at Kröflustöð, Iceland,
available for re-use when the next peak in demand was built between 1974 and 1996, and is the country’s largest
occurs. power station, producing up to 60MW of electricity.

Geothermal power is a valuable source of power in

those countries that have active volcanic areas such
as New Zealand, Iceland, Japan, Russia and the
Philippines. In volcanic areas, the hot rocks
beneath the surface heat up water that has seeped
downwards from the surface. While the water is
trapped beneath the surface, it is under great
pressure. A well is drilled into the underground
reservoir, the pressure is released and steam rushes
upwards. Where turbines have been installed, the
rushing steam drives the turbines and produces
electricity.

Although geothermal power does not produce 7.67 The Mutnovskaya geothermal power station was built on
large quantities of greenhouse gases like burning the slope of an active volcano about 130 kilometres from
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the
coal, there are environmental side-effects. The Russian Far East. Opened in 2003, the power station produces
escaping steam often contains other gases such as more than 300 MW of electricity.
carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide (which is
Although wind power is pollution free, it is not
poisonous). To prolong the life of geothermal
without its problems. Each turbine is between 30
power stations, hot water is often pumped down
metres and 50 metres high, with blades up to 35
into the underground reservoir once again, and
metres in diameter. They are built in windy places
over time this can make the water saline, leading to
such as ridge tops or coastlines, and are criticised as
corrosion of the turbines and pipes. Because
ruining the scenic beauty of these areas.
geothermal power is always generated in volcanic
Furthermore, the swishing noise of the blades has
areas, earthquakes are an additional risk.
been blamed for frightening wildlife and making
Wind power has been used for centuries to pump life unpleasant for nearby residents, who also
water and grind grain, but in recent years it has complain about reduced radio and mobile phone
also been used to generate electricity. Although reception near turbines. In western Europe, some
wind power is becoming more popular in western farmers are building wind farms to earn extra
Europe, especially in the Netherlands, Denmark, income, as the land between the turbines can still
Sweden and the United Kingdom, it still represents be farmed effectively.
a minute proportion of electricity generated there.
Tidal power is still fairly rare, but seems to be
Like hydro power, wind turbines are expensive to
effective where it has been used. The world’s first
construct, but cheap to run once completed.

271
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
tidal power station was built near the mouth of the
River Rance in France, and there are six other tidal
power stations (two in South Korea, and one in
each of Canada, China, Russia, and the United
Kingdom, where two more are under construction).
In each of these places, the difference between high
and low tide can be as much as 10 metres, resulting
in the movement of a huge volume of water into
and out of the river estuary, twice daily. By
building a barrage across the mouth of the estuary,
the moving water turns turbines almost constantly,
as the turbines turn both when the tide is rising and
falling. Tidal barrages are among the most
7.68 The Amayo wind farm in southern Nicaragua was the first expensive types of power stations to build, but
wind power station in the country. Opened in 2009, it produces once finished they are cheap and reliable. They
about 40MW of power for a country with a severe energy deficit. produce no wastes or pollution, and the only
environmental criticism is that they interfere with
the migration of spawning fish into and out of the
coastal estuary where the barrage is built.

The sun is certainly one source of energy that will

not run out in a time span that need worry us.
Solar energy is clean and safe, and it can be
considered unlimited. However, the solar cells
needed to produce electricity from the sun are
expensive to produce and remain fairly inefficient.
There are more than 60 solar power stations in the
world, 32 in Spain, 10 in the United States, three in
South Africa, two in each of China, India, Iran,
Morocco and Turkey, one in each of Algeria,
Australia, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Thailand
and the United Arab Emirates. Solar energy has the
7.69 The size of wind turbines can be seen with these
disadvantage that the times when power is most
examples on the outskirts of Shanghai, China.

7.70 The Alta Wind Energy Centre at Tehachapi Pass in 7.71 The Usine Marémotrice de la Rance at the mouth of the
California, USA, is the world’s third largest wind farm and the River Rance in France was the world’s first tidal power station.
largest in the US. Opened in 2010, it has 600 wind turbines with The turbulent water in the foreground shows that water is
a total capacity of 1,547MW. passing through the turbines under the barrage that the cars are
crossing.

272
 Chapter 7 - Global trends in consumption
5. With reference to figures 7.50 and 7.51, describe in about
250 words the differences between the trends and patterns
of production and consumption across the world from 1965
to 2018.

6. The pattern of movement shown in figure 7.52 is the result

of the situation described in figures 7.50 and 7.51. In about
250 words, describe the pattern of movement shown in
figure 7.52 and explain why this pattern of movement
exists.

7. To what extent does the pattern of energy use per capita

shown in figure 7.54 mirror the broad world pattern of
economic development?

8. What is meant by ‘peak oil’? Outline current thinking on

the timing of peak oil.

9. Explain the relationship between oil prices and scarcity.

10. Describe the trend in world oil prices since 1861 as shown
in figure 7.55.

11. Giving specific examples, describe the impact of world

events shown in figure 7.55 on world oil prices.

12. What is the ‘reserves-to-production ratio’ when referring to

oil production?

13. Refer to figure 7.56, and describe the trends for the reserves-
to-production ratio between 1985 and 2018 for (a) the
world, (b) the Middle East, and (c) North America.

14. Why do high oil prices encourage research into alternative

sources of energy?

15. With reference to table 7.1, describe the extent of nuclear

7.72 The Giraffe 2.0 wind-solar power station was developed in power generation in the world in 2018.
Malmö, Sweden, as a way to provide individual households with
renewable energy. It consists of a wooden structure that 16. Describe the benefits and problems of nuclear power that is
supports 24 solar panels and a wind turbine and can serve as a generated using nuclear fission.
carport with facilities to re-charge the batteries of electric cars.
17. What is nuclear fusion?
needed (at night and on cold, wet days) are the
18. Describe the benefits and problems of nuclear power that is
times when it is least available. To date, solar
generated using nuclear fusion.
energy is mainly used for comparatively small-scale
energy needs such as heating water in homes and 19. With reference to the top left graph in figure 7.59, describe
powering small appliances and machines. the trends of nuclear energy consumption in different parts
of the world.
QUESTION BANK 7F
20. What is meant by the term ‘renewable energy’? List some
1. Describe the changes in the types of energy resources used significant examples of types of renewable energy.
since 1800.
21. List the six types of energy shown in figure 7.59 in
2. With reference to figure 7.47, rank the types of energy descending order of the amount of power consumed world-
resources used in the world in 2020 on a per capita basis in wide in 2018.
descending order.
22. With reference to figure 7.59, compare the growth of wind
3. Estimate the proportion of world energy that was supplied power, solar energy and commercial biofuels since 2000.
by hydrocarbon (fossil) fuels on a per capita basis in 2020.
23. Outline the benefits and shortcomings of (a)
4. Describe the differences in the types of energy used in hydroelectricity, (b) geothermal power, (c) wind power, (d)
different parts of the world. tidal power, and (e) solar power.

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 Chapter
8 Impacts of changing trends
in resource consumption

8.1 Interdependencies within the water-energy-food nexus are illustrated by this irrigated farmland and the farmer’s fossil-fuel
powered van near Langar on the Panj River that forms the border between Tajikistan (foreground) and Afghanistan (background).

The water-energy-food The water-energy-food nexus concept is an attempt

to raise awareness of the interdependent linkages
nexus between them so that people view the management
of resources more holistically. The concept became
The ‘nexus’ approach widely known and popularised following a
conference on resource management held in Bonn
The word ‘nexus’ means a connection, or a series of
(Germany) in 2011. Since that time, the water-
connections, linking two or more things. The word
energy-food nexus has become a more significant
is increasingly being used to describe the deep
planning tool for implementing sustainable
intertwining between water security, energy
resource management.
security and food security whereby a change in any
one of these three elements inevitably affects the The concept of the water-energy-food nexus is
remaining two. The three elements – water, food shown in figure 8.2. The key to using the nexus is
and energy – are thus interdependent, as the to understand the linkages and interrelationships
condition of any one element depends on the state between the elements.
of the other two.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
When these individual two-way relationships are
combined and viewed in the context of all three
Water elements of the nexus, we gain a more holistic
overview of the processes underway.

y
erg
en

Wa
The production of food relies on water and soil,

Fo
ter
te

ter

od
with the soil supplying energy in the form of
era

wa

is n

tra
en

ply

minerals and nutrients. This two-way relationship

ee

n
og

up

sp
is highly significant, because 70% of the world’s

d
dt

ort
os

ed
de

water withdrawal is used for agriculture while 30%

s (v
dt

to
ee

de

gro

irtu
of global energy consumption is used for food
is n

ee

wf

al)
is n

production and distribution. Irrigation systems

ter

wa
oo
Wa

d
require energy for pumping and transporting
y

ter
erg

water, while manufacturing industries use large

En

quantities of energy to treat, heat and move water.

Energy Food can be used to produce energy Food
In the opposite direction, food can be used to
Energy is needed to produce food produce energy, not only for living organisms, but
in the form of biofuels, while the movement of food
8.2 The water-energy-food ‘nexus’. represents a movement of large quantities of the
virtual (embedded) water used in its production.
In the two-way interaction between water and
food: Water is needed to produce energy, whether this is
• water scarcity affects crop and livestock yields hydroelectricity, raising plants for biofuels, or the
• water is necessary for food processing extraction, processing and refining of fossil fuels.
• unregulated water encourages over-use in In the opposite direction, energy is needed to
agriculture distribute water in various forms such as the sun’s
driving of the water cycle, gravity bringing water
In the two-way relationship between water and
downhill and powering manufactured pumping
energy:
and reticulation systems.
• water cools electric power plants and generates
hydroelectricity The point of the nexus approach is to look at
• water is used to extract, refine and produce resource management as an integrated whole, not
energy resources focussing exclusively on the individual elements of
• extraction of gas and oil can pollute groundwater water, food or energy. Furthermore, the water-
resources energy-food nexus approach is intended to give
• fossil fuels contribute to climate change, which equal weighting to all three elements, recognising
affects water security

In the two-way relationship between energy and

food:
• food prices rise as the costs of fuel, fertiliser and
transport increase
• high oil prices increase the demand for biofuels,
which replace food crops
• clearing land to expand the area used for
cropping, biofuels and livestock production
contributes to climate change
• large-scale food production requires more
extensive transport networks that use more
energy
• increasing meat consumption raises greenhouse 8.3 An irrigation canal brings water across an aqueduct to a
gas emissions farmer’s fields in a dry, arid area on the edge of the Sahara
Desert near Ouarzazate, Morocco.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption

% of
population
with access

100

95 to 99

90 to 94

80 to 89

60 to 79
8.4 National water security, as indicated by the percentage of the population with access to improved water
40 to 59
sources, 2018. Source: Drawn from WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme ( JMP ) for Water Supply and Sanitation data.

% of
population
with access

100

90 to 99

60 to 89

40 to 59

20 to 39
8.5 National energy security, as indicated by the percentage of the population with access to electricity, 2018.
9 to 19 Source: World Bank data, Sustainable Energy for All ( SE4ALL ) database from World Bank, Global Electrification database.

% of population
undernourished

35+ very high

25 to 34 high

15 to 24 moderately high

5 to 14 moderately low

<5 very low

No data 8.6 National food security, as indicated by the percentage of the population that is undernourished, 2018.
Source: Drawn from FAO data.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
that a crisis in one element can quickly escalate into meet essential needs such as lighting, cooking,
a crisis for all three. An integrated approach thus heating, manufacturing and communications.
increases the efficiency of resource use while
Figure 8.5 shows the world distribution of energy
minimising the risks of environmental degradation
security. The countries and regions that face the
and pollution because externalities are taken into
highest levels of water insecurity are in Africa, the
account.
South-west Pacific, parts of South and South-east
Asia, and North Korea. Approximately 1.1 billion
National water, energy and food
people today live without access to any electricity,
security and according to the IEA (International Energy
Agency), it is estimated that demand for electricity
Everyone has a need to secure access to water,
energy and food. Nexus thinking encourages us to will rise by about 40% by 2030.
consider water security, energy security and food Food security is the availability and reliable access
security as one single integrated issue. to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet the
dietary needs and food preferences of the
Water security is the availability and reliable access
population to lead an active and healthy life.
to safe drinking water and sanitation, together with
sufficient quantities of water for agricultural and Figure 8.6 shows the world distribution of food
manufacturing production. security. The countries and regions that face the
highest levels of water insecurity are in Africa,
Figure 8.4 shows the world distribution of water
South and South-east Asia, the South-west Pacific,
security. The countries and regions that face the
parts of the Middle East and parts of Central and
highest levels of water insecurity are in Africa, and
parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, South-east South America. Altogether about 795 million
people in the world today are hungry, and
Asia and Mongolia. In the world today, about 790
according to the FAO (Food and Agricultural
million people live without access to clean drinking
Organisation), global food needs are estimated to
water, and according to the United Nations, by 2030
rise by about 60% by 2030.
it is estimated that global demand for water will
rise by 50%. Food security has four dimensions, as shown in
figure 8.7. The two other elements of the nexus,
Energy security is the availability and reliable
water and energy, have a direct impact on food
access to sufficient clean and affordable energy to
utilisation, and feed through indirectly to the other
three dimensions; availability, access and stability.

Increasing demand for resources in the years

• Production • Resources ahead will arise due to the combined impact of an
• Import • Governance increase in world population, estimated to be about
• Export • Infrastructure 8.3 billion people by 2030, and the increasing size of
the affluent global middle class. In 2020, the
Availability Access global middle class numbered about 3.2 billion
people, of whom 1.7 billion were in Asia. By 2030,
FOOD Latin America’s middle class will have grown from
SECURITY
180 million people today to 313 million people,
while the middle class in Africa and the Middle
• Water Utilisation Stability
East will increase from 137 million to 341 million
• Energy • Resilience people. By 2050, just three countries – China, India
• Sanitation • Storage and Brazil – will account for almost half the world’s
• Health
• Alternatives middle class residents.
• Well-being The rising demand for water, energy and food
needs to be seen in the context of their interrelated
8.7 The components of food security. After FAO. linkages. Examples of ways that the processes

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
poorer people and therefore increasing food
insecurity.
• Biofuels release more methane and nitrous oxides
than fossil fuels, and therefore greenhouse gas
emissions rise when biofuels are used as a
substitute for fossil fuels.

The interrelated nature of water security, energy

security and food security is also significant
spatially as actions in one place can affect other
locations. Solving a water security issue in one
country may create energy or food security issues
in other countries.
8.8 China has seen the emergence of an affluent, consumer- For example, some wealthy investor countries with
oriented middle class in recent decades, as seen here outside
shortages of land and water such as Qatar, Bahrain,
the Apple and GAP outlets in the Nanjing Road Pedestrian Plaza
in Shanghai. This demographic and economic transformation in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are
China has significant implications for the water-energy-food leasing or purchasing fertile, well-watered
nexus. farmland in low-income countries in an attempt to
within water management affect both energy improve their (the investor countries’) food and
management and food resources management water security. Similarly, countries with large
include: populations and concerns about food security such
as China, India and South Korea are investing in
• According to the FAO, 700 trillion litres of farmland in low-income countries such as the
freshwater are withdrawn each year for energy Philippines, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania and Pakistan.
production. The production from these fields is often exported,
• It takes a little more than 1,800 litres of water to depriving the host country of food supplies (thus
produce 1 kilogram of wheat, and almost 90 litres increasing food insecurity), and increasing water
of water to power a 60 watt light bulb for 12 insecurity by exporting embedded water.
hours. Therefore, the low-income countries that have sold
or leased their land often require and receive food
• It takes an average of 3,000 litres of water to
aid, sometimes from the governments of the same
produce each person’s daily food.
countries whose private companies have purchased
• Global diets are shifting from diets that are the land overseas.
mainly carbohydrate-based to protein-based diets
such as meat and dairy products that require
significantly more water to produce.
• It is estimated that by 2030 we may need to divert
about 10% of the world’s croplands to growing
crops for biofuels.
• In the United States, the process of moving,
heating and treating water consumes 13% of the
country’s electricity production.
• In the European Union, biofuel use to power cars
more than tripled between 2006 and 2015 in an
effort to increase energy security, but biofuels
consume about 20 times more water than fossil
fuels (petroleum) per kilometre in the form of 8.9 A large, irrigated farm on the north-eastern outskirts of
embedded water. By competing with food crops Lusaka, Zambia. Heavily mechanised farms such as this
for growing space, biofuels have increased global produce large outputs per farm worker, but consume large
grain prices, making grain less affordable for quantities of water and energy.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
Although the three elements of the water-energy- as energy production, irrigation techniques,
food nexus are interrelated, they are usually not of groundwater extraction, transportation, food
equal importance. In most situations, water wastage, biofuel usage, and so on, require
security is of prime importance because water significant changes that take into consideration the
cannot be replaced or substituted with something nexus between water, energy and food.
else. On a global scale, the supply of water cannot
Many of the world’s significant economic and
be increased or grown in the way that energy and
geopolitical issues reflect the absence of nexus
food resources can be increased or grown.
thinking. For example, issues such as world grain
For planners in many countries, water has been the prices, social instability in the Middle East and the
most neglected part of the water-energy-food push to use more biofuels all reflect unintended
nexus. For example, some countries have been consequences of policies that have ignored the
exploiting (or ‘mining’) their groundwater interrelationships between water, energy and food.
resources at an unsustainable rate that is faster Higher prices for wheat were probably a
than the groundwater can be replaced. This has contributor to the ‘Arab Spring’ from 2010 to 2012,
occurred at a national scale in China, where the rate while the rising cost of fossil fuels in 2007 and 2008
of groundwater extraction has been exceeding the probably raised the number of impoverished
rate of replenishment by 25% per annum, and in people in the world by 100 million people. An
India where there is a 56% greater extraction rate important factor in raising food prices during the
than replenishment rate. mid-2010s was the replacement of food crops with
biofuel crops, a measure that was designed to
improve energy security but which reduced food
and water security while increasing greenhouse gas
emissions.

8.10 Withdrawing water from wells taps underground supplies

of groundwater. If the rate of extraction exceeds the rate of
replenishment, use of the water resource is unsustainable.
These villagers are drawing water from a well in Sanga, Mali.
8.11 Military vehicles patrol the streets of central Tunis, Tunisia,
Many of the methods used today to produce food
during the ‘Arab Spring’. This and other geopolitical conflicts
and energy have an impact on water quality. For are at least partly caused when planners and governments
example, 17,000 litres of water evaporate from ignore the interrelationships of the water-energy-food nexus.
hydroelectric dams for every megawatt-hour of Supporters of nexus thinking advocate strategies of
electricity they produce. Globally, half the nitrogen resource management that provide positive,
used in fertilisers is never absorbed by crops, and reinforcing, sustainable feedback loops between
so typically flows into rivers as runoff. These and water, energy and food, such as the following:
many other examples inform us that if current
methods of managing water, energy and food • replace fossil-fuel generated electricity and
resources continue, then the problems such as hydroelectricity with renewable forms of energy
such as wind and solar power, and generating
environmental pollution, sustainable development
energy from farming wastes and greywater.
and people’s quality of life will worsen. This
suggests that management strategies in areas such

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
• engage decision-makers and people in positions
of power – so that food, energy and water can be
managed by people who understand the
importance of the interdependencies and
interrelationships between the three elements.

• enable action – by everyone who makes

resource-related decisions, including farmers,
managers, manufacturers, government
administrators and politicians, so that
sustainable, integrated resource management is
implemented in practice.

QUESTION BANK 8A
8.12 Drip irrigation in an apple orchard near Kozjak, Macedonia.
1. Define the food-energy-food nexus.
• reduce food waste. 2. With reference to figure 8.2, describe the interdependent
relationships that comprise the water-energy-food nexus.
• replace traditional spray and flow irrigation with
drip irrigation. 3. Give one example of each of the six flows shown by the
arrows in figure 8.2.
• improve supply chains for agriculture,
manufacturing and service industries to minimise 4. Describe and compare the world distributions of water
travel and waste. security, energy security and food security shown in figures
8.4 to 8.6. What conclusions can you draw about the
• improve crop productivity by increasing yields similarities between the three distributions?
on a given area of land.
5. Why is it expected that the demand for resources will
• reduce the need for water in manufacturing increase in the decades ahead?
processes by recycling wherever possible and 6. With specific reference to the water-energy-food nexus,
adopting new technology that will also reduce describe the impact of foreign investment in productive
energy needs. farms located in low-income countries.

• encourage farming techniques such as no-till 7. What is the difference between sustainable and
agriculture that allows crops to be grown year unsustainable use of resources such as groundwater?
after year without disturbing the soil, thus 8. Explain how ignoring the water-energy-food nexus can lead
increasing the quantity of water that infiltrates to (a) inadequate access to safe water, (b) less access to food,
into the soil while also raising the retention of and (c) geopolitical issues.
organic matter and the recycling of minerals and
nutrients in the soil.

If techniques such as these were to be adopted The implications of

internationally on a widespread scale, energy use climate change for the
and waste would both decrease, therefore
improving energy and water security, and water-energy-food nexus
production would increase, therefore increasing At the global scale, the world is not running out of
food security. For these changes to happen, resources in the near future. However, at the
planners will need to: regional and local scale, specific places and people
• assess and understand the risks – noting are short of resources because physical, economic or
especially the links between water, energy and political forces cause imbalances in the relative
food by evaluating vulnerabilities in an scarcity of water, energy and land. The complex
integrated manner. interrelationships between water, energy and food
make the planning to overcome these imbalances a
complex task.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
These interrelationships are further complicated by
the changes occurring due to climate change.
Climate change is expected to have a significant
impact on temperatures, precipitation, humidity
and evaporation in many parts of the world in
coming decades. These changes will in turn affect
the quantity, quality and timing of water available
for energy production and food cultivation, which
will increase the competition for land and threaten
food security. This highlights the need to consider
connections in the water-energy-food nexus in their
entirety rather than in isolation.

8.14 Climate change has a direct impact on water security,

especially in drought-prone semi-arid areas such as the African
Water Sahel. In this view, two women collect water from the well in
their village in eastern Mali, tapping into the groundwater
resource in the aquifer below the ground surface. The energy
being used to retrieve and move the water is human power.
2-way impact

Climate
change
2-wa act
y imp y imp
act 2-wa

Energy Food

8.13 The interaction between climate change and the water-

energy-food ‘nexus’.
8.15 When rising temperatures reduce snow cover, albedo
Figure 8.13 shows a simplified model of the
decreases and less solar radiation is reflected. This warms the
interactions between climate change and the water- ground, further reducing snow cover which reduces albedo,
energy-food nexus. When climate changes, it starting an ongoing cycle of climate change as climate and
impacts all three elements of the water-energy-food water (in the form of ice and snow) interact. This area of
nexus, and each element in turn can affect the skrinking snow cover is on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia.
climate. As the albedo decreases, more insolation is
The initial impact of climate change is usually on absorbed by the Earth’s surface, which warms the
water security as droughts become more frequent climate, further reducing the extent of snowfields
or prolonged, flood events increase in intensity and and ice caps, thus perpetuating an ongoing cycle.
the distribution of rainfall changes in some areas. Another two-way relationship exists as climate
This impact is a two-way relationship as changing change impacts energy security. The strongest
patterns of precipitation lead to changes in patterns impacts of climate change are impacts on renewable
of evaporation and humidity, which in turn lead to energy sources such as solar power, wind power,
further changes in climate. This two-way biofuels and hydroelectricity, all of which are
relationship is especially clear in polar areas where affected by changing patterns of precipitation,
a decrease in precipitation reduces the extent of insolation and movements of the atmosphere. The
snowfields and ice caps, which reduces albedo as reverse impact, where energy generation affects
the extent of shiny, white, reflective areas shrinks. climate, occurs most strongly as fossil fuels such as

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
to create new farmland. Significant impacts on
climate can occur when farmers abandon growing
fuel crops and produce biofuel crops instead, as
these have been shown to produce more
greenhouse gases than fossil fuels.

Once water, energy and food have been

individually affected by climate change, the
interactions between the three elements amplify
the impact. For example, if climate change results
in more severe droughts in a semi-arid country,
water security is affected, which in turn affects food
security. Farmers may respond by using energy
resources to extract increasing quantities of
8.16 A significant way in which energy production has an impact
groundwater to compensate for the reduced
on climate change is by the production of greenhouse gases in
coal-fired power stations, such as the Puhung Power Plant in precipitation. Increased use of irrigation water
Pyongyang, North Korea. increases evaporation and transpiration, feeding
back into further climate changes. Meanwhile,
coal, oil and natural gas are burnt, releasing carbon
increasing aridity and decreasing groundwater
dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxides and
reserves reduce crop yields, causing farmers to
other greenhouse gas that play a significant role in
expand the area under irrigation to compensate,
retaining heat and warming the atmosphere.
further affecting the climate, demanding more use
The third set of two-way relationships occurs as of energy and threatening water security.
climate change interacts with food production.
Changing temperatures and patterns of The OECD has analysed the global water-energy-
precipitation have a direct bearing on the yields food nexus in the light of climate change impacts.
and productivity of farming operations, and can This global analysis was conducted as a
even affect the types of crop species that are grown component of its investigation titled CIRCLE (Cost
of Inaction and Resource Scarcity; Consequences for
in some areas. When farmers change the types of
Long-term Economic Growth). The OECD
food produced a farm, or expand the area under
identified significant situations that cause delays in
cropping of livestock raising, this can affect climate
the operation of the global water-energy-food
by changing the rates of transpiration and
evaporation, especially if forests have been cleared nexus today, which it labeled as bottlenecks. The
OECD’s conclusions were:

• There is no clear evidence of an absolute scarcity

of nexus resources world-wide. The impacts
from land-water-energy bottlenecks vary greatly
across regions and time periods. The main
problem is not the global availability of resources,
but having them available at the right time in
the right places.

• The availability of clean freshwater in some

regions seems to be the main bottleneck in the
nexus. Unlike energy security and food security,
regional bottlenecks in water security are difficult
to manage through international trade and
transportation.
8.17 Sugar harvesting on an extensive plantation west of
Havana, Cuba. Since the death of former President Fidel • Specific bottlenecks have significant economic
Castro, Cuba has begun using sugar to produce ethanol, a
impacts at the local or regional scale in specific
biofuel that Castro had labelled “a sinister idea” that would
result in millions of people dying of “thirst and starvation”. areas that are already vulnerable to food, water

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
and energy insecurity, but the effects on the
global scale economy are minor. Nonetheless,
nexus bottlenecks can have serious consequences,
as a shock in one sector in one place tends to
cause a ripple effect throughout the economy
and on other economies.

• There are some limited possibilities to substitute

away from one especially scarce resource to the
other resources. However, the markets for land,
water and energy are imperfect, and price signals
are often distorted. Therefore, the relative
scarcity of different resources is not reflected well
by their prices, and private actions may not take
8.18 According to the OECD, climate change affects food
wider social costs into account.
security most strongly when resources cannot be substituted.
• International trade can be a powerful tool to This is the situation faced by people in this fishing village on the
coast of Accra, Ghana. A report by the IPCC says that climate
reduce regional differences in demand and
change is likely to reduce fish catches by between 40% and
supply, mitigating the consequences of local 60% in some areas of the tropics, significantly affecting food
bottlenecks. The ability of goods to be traded is security.
therefore important to consider when assessing Some countries are doing this, as Australia, South
the impacts of bottlenecks. Africa and the European Union are integrating their
climate and energy policies, and Colombia has
• All three nexus resources are significantly
developed an integrated system to manage disaster
affected by climate change. Substituting one of
risk management and climate change adaptation.
the resources for another can amplify the impact
with climate change, especially when fossil fuel However, few countries have yet integrated water
based energy is used for water supply, or when planning into these integrated policies, which
land expansion for agriculture involves weakens strategic effectiveness as water is usually
deforestation. These linkages need to be taken the main avenue through which climate change
into account in national climate change policies. initially affects the water-energy-food nexus.
• In general, negative economic consequences of In order to illustrate the impact of climate change
the nexus bottlenecks tend to be concentrated in on the water-energy-food nexus at the national
countries that have strong bottlenecks in scale, two countries will be examined in detail.
economic activities in which resources cannot be
Albania and Kyrgyzstan are both vulnerable to the
substituted or imported. Specifically, regions
impact of climate change, though in different ways
with strong decreases in crop yields and higher
that reflect their contrasting levels of resource
production costs and that are neither able to trade
security.
the most affected crops nor substitute them with
other goods within their region are particularly Albania’s water security has been declining in
affected. recent years, with the percentage of the population
having access to improved water sources falling
The complexity of the interactions that occur
between water, energy and food suggests that from 96.2% in 2001 to 94.7% in 2018. Although
Kyrgyzstan’s water security is lower than
planning needs to be done holistically by teams of
Albania’s, it is improving, with the percentage of
people with multiple knowledge and skill sets so
the population having access to improved water
that diverse perspectives are considered.
sources rising from 74.3% in 1994, through 79.2% in
Governments could make their policies and actions 2001 to 90.3% in 2018.
truly effective if they were to integrate their water,
Food security is another area where the two
energy and food policies into one holistic approach
countries have different levels of resource security.
to address the likely impacts of climate change.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
105 Employment in
Agriculture Manufacturing Services
100

27%
95
43% 38%
Per ce nt o f po p u l a t i on

51%
90
22%
19%
85
Albania Kyrgyzstan
80 water security
percentage of the population with access to improved water

75
energy security
percentage of the population with access to electricity
food security
percentage of the population that is adequately nourished
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
8.19 Resource security in Albania and Kyrgyzstan, 1990 to 2018, and employment structure in 2018. Source: Drawn using data from United
Nations Population Division data, WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme ( JMP ) for Water Supply and Sanitation, World Bank, FAO.

Before the collapse of communism in 1990, 39% of Although Albania is located on the coast, its coastal
Albania’s children were said to be undernourished. strip is narrow and 70% of the country is
Since that time, the number of undernourished mountainous with peaks rising above 2,500 metres.
children has dropped to negligible levels. By Much of the population lives in towns situated in
contrast, Kyrgyzstan still has about 6% of its mountain valleys, and the country has no urban
population undernourished, although its food areas that are large by international standards; the
security is improving; in 2001, 16.7 of the Kyrgyz largest city is the capital, Tirana, which has a
population were undernourished. population of just over 400,000 people.

Unlike water security and food security, both Albania became a separate country in 1912 when it
Albania and Kyrgyzstan have similar levels of separated from the Turkish (Ottoman) Empire.
energy security. Both countries claim to have high After being occupied by Germany during World
levels of energy security, with 100% access to War II it became a Communist country in 1946.
electricity for their populations. In Albania, this has
Slovenia Hungary
been the situation for at least three decades, but Croatia
20˚E
Romania
Kyrgyzstan only managed to achieve this figure in
Bosnia-
2000. Herzegovina Serbia
Overall, Albania has a higher level of resource Black
Adriatic Sea
security than Kyrgyzstan. Recent trends in Bulgaria
Sea Kosovo
resource security for Albania and Kyrgyzstan are Montenegro

shown in figure 8.19. Tirana Macedonia

Italy
ALBANIA
CASE STUDY Turkey

Albania 40˚N
Greece
Aegean
Sea
40˚N

Albania is an independent republic situated in Ionian

Sea
south-east Europe on the coast of the Adriatic Sea
to the north of Greece, south of Montenegro and 0 100
Kilometres
Kosovo, and west of Macedonia. Its situation is
shown in figure 8.20. Mediterranean Sea
20˚E

8.20 The location of Albania.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption

8.21 Much of Albania’s area consists of mountains. In these areas, food production is confined to small, flat areas in mountain valleys
that are fed by streams from melting snow and rainfall on the steep slops surrounding the valleys. This small area of cultivation is in
the Petran district of the Vsoja River gorge. Note the extensive soil erosion on the slope in the right foreground.

emigration of many women of child-bearing age to

find employment in other parts of Europe
(especially in Italy and Germany) and in Canada
and the United States. The GNI per capita in
Albania in 2018 was US$4,860.

Climate change in Albania

Albania’s climate reflects its topography
(landforms). Coastal areas experience a
Mediterranean climate with mild, moist winters
and hot, dry summers, but inland mountainous
140

Temperature ˚C
8.22 Albania’s capital city, Tirana, is small by world standards, 120
but energy use per capita is the highest in the country.

Under the leadership of Enver Hoxha, the country 100

entered a period of extreme isolation which ended
in 1990 when the Communist regime collapsed. 80
Since that time, Albania transformed itself into a 13
% of normal precipitation

parliamentary republic with a strengthening 60

economy, membership of NATO (from 2009) and
12
stronger links to other parts of Europe, including an
40
application for membership of the European Union
(submitted in 2014). 11
20
In 2018, Albania had a population of 2.9 million
people living within a land area of 27,400 square 10
kilometres. Albania’s population size has been 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

declining in size slowly since 1990 when it hit a 8.23 Climate change in Albania, 1950 to 2000. Average
peak of 3.3 million people; in 1960 the population national temperatures for each year are shown by the red line
had been just 1.6 million people. The reasons for and shaded broad red trend band, using the figures in red on
the right axis. Deviations from average annual rainfall for each
the declining population today are Albania’s
year are shown by the blue line and shaded broad blue trend
declining fertility rate, which fell from 6.5 to 1.6 band, using the figures in blue on the left axis.
births per woman between 1960 and 2018, and the Source: Drawn from ClimateWizard data.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
areas are considerably cooler and wetter. The mean • in winter, more precipitation will fall as rain
annual air temperature varies across the country rather than snow.
from 15°C in coastal areas to 7°C over the inland
• the number of intensive rainfall events will rise;
mountainous zones. Average annual rainfall is
compared with the average during 1950 to 2000,
1,485mm per year. The lowlands in the south-east
the number of days with heavy precipitation is
receive the least rainfall, with about 600mm per
expected to increase by one to two days by 2025,
year, whereas the Albanian Alps receive as much as
by two to three days by 2050, and by three to five
3,000mm per annum.
days by 2100.
Table 8.1
Climate change projections for Albania to 2100 Air temperature change (last half century)

Temperature increases Precipitation decreases

Season Precipitation change (last half century)
2025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100

+0.8 to +1.7 to +2.9 to -3.4 to -6.9 to -16.2 to Extreme weather events and climate-related
Annual
+1.1C˚ +2.3C˚ +5.3C˚ -2.6% -5.3% -8.8%
hazards (1990 - 2010)
+0.7 to +1.5 to +2.4 to -1.8 to -3.6 to -8.4 to
Winter
+0.9C˚ +1.9C˚ +4.5C˚ -1.3% -2.8% -4.6%
Future water resources availability (forecast until
+0.7 to +1.4 to +2.3 to -1.2 to -2.5 to -5.8 to
Spring 2100)
+0.9C˚ +1.8C˚ +4.2C˚ -0.9% -1.9% -3.2%
+1.2 to +2.4 to +2.4 to -11.5 to -23.2 to -54.1 to
Summer
+1.5C˚ +3.1C˚ +3.1C˚ -8.7% -17.8% -29.5%
Health - infectious and vector-borne diseases
+0.8 to +1.7 to +2.9 to -3.0 to -6.1 to -14.2 to
Autumn
+1.1C˚ +2.2C˚ +5.2% -2.3% -4.7% -7.7%
Figures show variations from 2000. Source: Republic of Albania,
Ministry of Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions

Contemporary measurements show that Albania’s

climate is changing, with temperatures rising and Policy instruments, actions and awareness
precipitation decreasing. Figure 8.23 shows the
recorded changes in Albania’s climate from 1950 to
Climate observation and weather services
2000, and table 8.1 shows the expected climate
changes in Albania to the end of this century.
increase, decrease, mostly increasing,
Unfortunately for Albanians, the largest increases in
enhancement reduction improving
temperature and the largest decreases in
precipitation are both expected to occur in summer, 8.24 Climate change in Albania: key trends and projections.
when the climate is already at its hottest and driest. Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change data.

The other expected changes in Albania’s climate

These changes and some of the consequences are
are:
summarised in figure 8.24. The initial impacts of
• daily minimum temperatures will rise more than climate change in Albania affect water security,
maximum temperatures. with impacts flowing through to food security and
energy security. As temperatures rise and
• the number of days with frost will decrease in
precipitation decreases, especially in summer, the
high altitude areas.
risk increases that farming productivity will
• heat waves will increase in frequency. decline and that rain-fed crops will fail. Much of
Albania is covered by forests, especially in the
• the number and duration of droughts during
mountainous areas where climate changes will be
summer will increase due to the combination of
greatest, increasing the risk of forest fires. The
higher temperatures, reduced precipitation and
entire country faces increasing risks of droughts
increased evaporation rates. Compared to the
and heat waves, while coastal areas face increased
average during 1950 to 2000, the number of days
risks of flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater
with a temperature 35°C or higher is expected to
intrusion as sea levels rise.
rise by one to two days by 2025, and by three to
four days by 2050.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption

8.25 Initial effects of climate change as temperatures rise and 8.27 Some heavily polluting factories built during Albania’s
precipitation decreases will be felt in agricultural areas that Communist era continue to operate, producing high quantities
depend on rainfall and natural runoff. This farming area near of greenhouse gas emissions.
Pogradec is typical of such threatened farming areas.

Albania’s greenhouse gas emissions are shown in

figure 8.26. During the Communist era, heavy
industry dominated the economy and pollution
controls were non-existent, so greenhouse gas
emissions rose sharply. This trend ended abruptly
with the fall of Communism in 1990 when exposure
to international economic forces quickly led to the
closure of hundreds of heavily polluting,
economically inefficient and uncompetitive
factories. Greenhouse gas emissions have been
rising since more efficient, modern factories became
established in the late 1990s and private car
ownership began to increase. Although figure 8.26 8.28 Abandoned factories from the Communist era in Elbasan,
shows that the largest percentage increases in part of the Steel of the Party metallurgical complex.

14 Sources of greenhouse gas

emissions in Albania, 2012
Tho u sa nd s of k i lot onn es of CO 2 eq ui vale n t

13
Energy
12 Agriculture
Manufacturing
11
Waste
10

9 Sources of changes in greenhouse gas emissions in Albania

from 1990 to 2000
8
Land use change and forestry
7 Waste

6 Agriculture

Manufacturing
5
Energy
4
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -100% -50% 0 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
8.26 Albania’s greenhouse gas emissions, 1970 to 2012. Source: Drawn using data from European Commission, Joint Research Centre ( JRC ) /
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( PBL ). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research ( EDGAR ), EDGARv4.2 FT2012, the National
Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Second National Communication of Albania.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2000 were from to farmers to improve farm management systems
emissions produced from wastes, this was a small with better management of manure and grazing
source in absolute terms, and wastes produced less systems, and improving crop rotation. Waste
greenhouse gas emissions than any other sector management is being improved by opening new
except manufacturing. landfill sites that collect methane emissions and
reduce other emissions. The water and energy
The water-energy-food nexus is apparent in
components of the nexus are being linked through
Albania’s attempts to reduce greenhouse gas
improvements in forestry management, where
emissions. In absolute terms, the largest quantity of
sustainable harvesting has been introduced and
greenhouse gas emissions came from energy
rehabilitation is being undertaken of land that has
production, with food and agriculture being the
been damaged by forestry operations.
second highest, and this is still the case today.
Albania is trying to reduce greenhouse gas Albania’s vulnerability to climate change
emissions in the energy sector by closing old
power plants and replacing them with more According to the United Nations and the World
efficient facilities that use cleaner energy sources. Bank, Albania is more vulnerable to the effects of
These initiatives are being linked to changes in food climate change than any other country in Europe.
production, where government help is being given This can be seen in 8.30 where Albania’s
vulnerability to climate change is compared with
other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tajikistan
Albania
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Turkey

Moldova
Macedonia
Serbia
Russia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Belarus
Ukraine

Latvia
Poland
Croatia
Lithuania
Slovakia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Slovenia
0 5 10 15 20 25
8.29 Irrigation links the three elements of the water-energy-
food nexus, and is therefore vulnerable to the impacts of climate vulnerability index
change. Improving irrigation on farms such as this corn growing 8.30 Vulnerability index of countries in Eastern Europe and
area near Sarandë helps to combat the impacts of climate Central Asia. Source: ENVSEC and Zoï environment network.
change.
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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
The vulnerability index used in figure 8.30 was Reduced precipitation will also affect food security
adapted from the CCVI by the United Nations and and the agricultural sector, which is a significant
the World Bank using three factors: exposure to component of Albania’s economy as well as a vital
risk, sensitivity to disruptions and capacity to element of the water-energy-food nexus. It is
adapt. The first element, exposure to risk, analyses predicted that crop yields will fall and farms in
the hazards associated with climate change such as marginal areas may be forced to close. Higher
droughts, which increase in frequency and intensity temperatures with more frequent droughts are also
as temperatures rise and precipitation decreases. expected to increase the risk of forest fires, which
The second element, sensitivity to disruptions, has flow-on consequences of economic losses, soil
analyses the extent to which exposure to a hazard erosion, loss of plant and animal habitats, and
causes harm, such as the impact on a food-growing increased greenhouse gas emissions. The predicted
area when drought occurs. The third element, increase in severe flood events will also adversely
capacity to adapt, analyses the ability of a country’s affect food production as well as damaging
political, social and economic institutions to infrastructure and causing widespread human
respond to the impacts of climate change. Higher suffering.
scores on the vulnerability index indicate greater
Fortunately for Albania, its administrative and
vulnerability. Whereas the CCVI uses a scale from
political institutions have experienced major
0 to 10, with lower numbers representing higher
improvements since the fall of Communism that
risk, the World Bank’s adaptation uses an open-
will help the country’s capacity to adapt to the
ended scale where low values indicate low risk, and
impacts of climate change. In recent years,
high values indicate high risk.
unemployment has fallen, corruption has been
Using the vulnerability index, Albania scored 23 for tackled, much of the country’s crumbling
exposure to risk, 19 for sensitivity to disruptions infrastructure has been re-built and the powerful
and 6 for capacity to adapt. The initial impacts of organised criminal networks have been weakened.
climate change — rising temperatures and The transition to a market economy has encouraged
decreasing precipitation — are to reduce surface an inflow of foreign investment that has improved
water runoff because more rainfall will seep into the efficiency of energy and manufacturing, and has
the dry soil. This will impact energy because 20% introduced much more awareness of the hazards of
less runoff will lead to a 60% reduction in power climate change and the need to address its threats.
generation as 95% of Albania’s electricity comes
Albania launched a national plan to address the
from hydroelectric generation. Although Albania’s
threats of climate change in 2016. Known as the
reliance on hydroelectricity is effective in reducing
NAP (National Adaptation Plan), it was developed
the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, it increases
jointly by the Albanian Government, GIZ (Deutsche
the country’s vulnerability to climate change.
Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit,
and the NAP (National Adaptation Plan) Global
Network, which is funded by the US State
Department and Germany’s BMZ (Federal Ministry
of Economic Co-operation and Development). The
plan addresses the water-energy-food nexus as
follows:
Water
• Construct a series of dams parallel and
perpendicular to the coastline and strengthen
coastal landforms to protect against the erosive
impact of rising sea levels.
• Nourish the seabed with dumped sediments to
restore eroded beaches by natural deposition.
8.31 Most of Albania’s electricity is produced by hydro power in • Control water more effectively in farming,
mountainous areas such as this dam on the Drin River in
northern Albania.
including levelling and terracing of hillsides to

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
conserve water, and modernising irrigation
systems in drought-prone areas.
• Control deforestation and soil erosion which
cause sedimentation that reduces the capacity
and efficiency of hydroelectric power plants.
Energy
• Increase electricity generation from new, efficient
combined cycle thermal power plants in order to
reduce reliance on hydroelectric power.
• Renovate several hydroelectric dams so they can
cope with the reductions of water available due
to climate change.
8.32 This small beach at Dhërmi is artificial, having been • Construct small hydroelectric power plants that
created by dumping sediment behind an offshore protective will be efficient as the climate becomes drier.
breakwater. This is an example of attempts to offset coastal • Build new medium and large hydroelectric
erosion as sea levels rise.
power plants that allow for changed water levels
due to climate change.
Food
• Change planting dates of crops and investigate
different species suited to a hotter, drier climate.
• Implement farming practices to conserve
moisture such as conservation tillage that protect
the soil from wind and water erosion, as well as
retaining moisture by reducing evaporation and
increasing infiltration of precipitation into the
soil.
• Use biotechnology to develop genetically
modified “designer cultivars” to adapt to the
stresses of climate change such as intense heat,
8.33 Soil erosion in the mountains between Delvinë and
Muzinë in southern Albania. water shortages, pests and diseases.

8.34 Water use in Albania’s capital city, Tirana, is extravagant in 8.35 The impact of climate change on food security will be felt
places when the impending water shortages brought by climate by the population in food markets such as these stalls selling
change are considered. This large fountain decorates the olives in Tirana as prices rise in response to declining farm
Pyramid of Tirana, originally built as Enver Hoxha’s mausoleum production and productivity.
and now used as a cultural and conference centre.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
CASE STUDY
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked, mountainous republic
in Central Asia. It is surrounded by Kazakhstan to
the north, China to the east, Tajikistan to the south
and Uzbekistan to the west. Kyrgyzstan is further
from the sea than any other country. Despite its
mountainous location and its isolation, it has
experienced foreign influence for about 2,000 years
as its territory lay on the Silk Road that enabled
trade between China and Europe to occur for many
centuries.
75˚E
8.37 Cattle grazing beside the Bazar-Korgon Reservoir near
Akman in western Kyrgyzstan. Note the lack of pasture growth
in the heavily trampled area used by the cattle near the water.
Aral Kazakhstan
Sea

Uzbekistan Bishkek
KYRGYZSTAN

40˚N 40˚N
Turkmenistan
Caspian Tajikistan
China
Sea

Iran
Afghanistan India
0 100 Pakistan 75˚E
Kilometres

8.36 The location of Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan became a separate country for the first
time in 1991 when it emerged from the breakup of 8.38 Kyrgyzstan’s capital city, Bishkek, is the largest urban
the Soviet Union; during the Soviet era it been part centre in the country. It features the ornamental fountains that
of the USSR as the Kyrgyz Soviet Socialist Republic. are typical of Soviet urban planning.
In 2018, Kyrgyzstan had a population of 6.31
population lives below the poverty line. The GNI
million people living within a land area of 191,800
per capita in Kyrgyzstan in 2018 was US$1,220.
square kilometres. Kyrgyzstan’s population size
has been growing steadily, rising from 2.17 million Agriculture employs 27% of Kyrgyzstan’s
in 1960 through 4.5 million when the USSR population, which contributes about one-third of
disintegrated to its present size. Kyrgyzstan’s the country’s GDP. Manufacturing is the smallest
fertility rate is higher than the world average, but it sector of Kyrgyzstan’s economy, and it relies
has been declining somewhat in recent years. In heavily on processing the products of the
1963, Kyrgyzstan’s fertility rate was 5.3 births per agricultural sector. Therefore, almost half of
woman. This figure fell to 2.4 births per woman by Kyrgyzstan’s economy depends on activities that
2000, but it has been rising since then, and by 2018 depend on weather and climate.
the fertility rate had risen to 3.0 births per woman.
Climate change in Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan has few urban centres as 64% of the
Mountains cover 80% of Kyrgyzstan, so the
population live in rural areas. The largest city is the
country is sometimes called the ‘Switzerland of
capital, Bishkek, which has a population of just
Central Asia’. Approximately 94% of the country is
over 900,000 people. Half of Kyrgyzstan’s
above 1,000 metres altitude, and 40% is above 3,000
population live in rural areas, and 43% of the
metres. The peaks are some of the highest in the

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
from dry continental to polar depending on the
altitude. About 4% of Kyrgyzstan is permanently
under ice and snow with temperatures below 0°C
for most of the year. The average annual air
temperature for Kyrgyzstan as a whole varies
within the range of -1.5°C to +0.5°C, with warmer
temperatures towards the lower areas in the west
and cooler temperatures in the Tian Shan
Mountains to the east.

Kyrgyzstan’s mountains attract orographic rainfall,

so the country is fairly well watered by the streams
that flow from the mountainous areas. Average
annual rainfall for the country as a whole generally
8.39 Although food production is the mainstay of Kyrgyzstan’s
falls within the range of 350mm to 550mm per
economy, it is largely confined to mountain valleys such as this
area near Jeti-Öghüz. annum.

Kyrgyzstan’s climate poses challenges for the

country’s water-energy-food nexus. Droughts are
common, and other common weather-related
hazards are landslides, mudslides, avalanches,
strong winds, heavy downpours of rain, frosts,
melting of glacial lakes, floods, and river erosion.
Earthquakes add to the hazards faced by the
population, as there are between 3,000 and 5,000
earthquakes annually.

140

Temperature ˚C
8.40 Many of Kyrgyzstan’s horse and cattle farmers are 120
nomadic, moving their herds with the changing weather to make
use of the available fodder and water. Kyrgyzstan’s farmers are
thus heavily reliant on the climate. 100

world, rising to 7,439 metres at Peak Jengish

Chokusu in the Tian Shan Mountains on the border 80
1.0
% of normal precipitation

with China. The remaining 20% of Kyrgyzstan

comprises mountain valleys and lake-filled basins, 60 0.5
the largest of which is Lake Issyk-Kul (sometimes
spelt Ysyk-Köl), located in the country’s north-east. 0
40
Lake Issyk-Kul measures 180 kilometres in length -0.5
by 60 kilometres wide, and it is the world’s second 20
largest saline lake (after the Caspian Sea). -1.0

Kyrgyzstan’s climate varies with the topography. -1.5

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
In the south-west of Kyrgyzstan, the country’s
8.41 Climate change in Kyrgyzstan, 1962 to 2012. Average
lowest area is the Fergana Valley (altitude about 400
national temperatures for each year are shown by the red line
metres above sea level). This region has the and shaded broad red trend band, using the figures in red on
warmest climate in Kyrgyzstan, with summer the right axis. Deviations from average annual rainfall for each
temperatures climbing to 40°C, and so it is where year are shown by the blue line and shaded broad blue trend
most of Kyrgyzstan’s agriculture is located. The band, using the figures in blue on the left axis.
Source: Drawn from World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal data.
mountainous areas have cooler climates that range

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
Contemporary measurements show that the climate Significant rises in temperatures are expected, the
in Kyrgyzstan is changing, with temperatures main cause being the increase in enhanced
rising and precipitation decreasing. Figure 8.41 greenhouse gas emissions produced globally. It is
shows the recorded changes in Kyrgyzstan’s predicted that precipitation will fluctuate with a
climate from 1962 to 2012. Temperatures are rising gradual overall downward trend towards greater
at an accelerating rate. In the period since records aridity. The expected rate of decline in
began in 1885, temperatures have risen by an precipitation is -0.0677mm per year.
average rate of 1.0377C° per century (0.010377C°
per year), while the rate of increase in the 50 years Air temperature change (last 20 years)
from 1960 to 2010 was double this rate (0.024773C°
per year). In the 20 year period 1990 to 2010, the
Precipitation and snow
rate of temperature increase rose to 0.070082C° per
year. These rates of increase are almost uniform
across all of Kyrgyzstan’s climatic zones. Climate aridy and desertification

The trends in precipitation have been changing. In

the period since records began in 1885, precipitation Extreme weather events and climate-related
hazards
increased by an average rate of 0.847mm per year.
However, during the 50 year period from 1060 to
2010, the rate of increase fell to 0.363mm per year. Melting ice and permafrost
In the 20 year period 1990 to 2010, average annual
precipitation decreased by an average of -1.868mm
Future water resources availability
per year. This suggests that the earlier trend of
rising precipitation has reversed, and Kyrgyzstan is
now experiencing a sharper decline in precipitation. People’s health

Kyrgyzstan’s predictions for future changes in

climate are based on extrapolations from recent Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 to 2005
trends, and these forecasts are shown in figure 8.42.
Mean national temperature ˚C

430
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 to 2005
410

390 Policy instruments, actions and awareness

370

350 Climate observation and weather services

Annual precipitation (mm)

330
increase, decrease,
6 reduction mixed trends
310 enhancement
5
8.43 Climate change in Kyrgyzstan: key trends and projections.
290 4 Source: Based on data from the Second National Communication of
3 Kyrgyzstan.
270
2 The impacts of climate change in Kyrgyzstan are
250 1 summarised in figure 8.43. Rising temperatures
0 and fluctuating precipitation are expected to have
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 some negative impacts on Kyrgyzstan’s basic food
8.42 Projected climate change in Kyrgyzstan from 2010 to 2100. crops — wheat, barley, sugar beet and maize — as
Projected average national temperatures for each year are these crops do not typically use irrigation. In any
shown by the red line using the figures in red on the right axis. case, Kyrgyzstan’s once extensive irrigation
Projected average annual rainfalls for each year are shown by
network that was built during Soviet times has
the blue line using the figures in blue on the left axis. Source:
Drawn from data supplied by the State Agency for Environmental largely disintegrated through lack of maintenance
Protection and Forestry under the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic.

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
36 Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Kyrgyzstan
Tho us an ds o f kil ot onne s o f C O 2 eq ui val ent

Thousa nds of kiloto nne s of CO 2 equivalen t

30
32

25
28
20

24 15

10
20
5

16 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2010 2030 2070

Energy Food production

12
Manufacturing Waste
Land use change and forestry Lower projection
8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Higher projection
8.44 Kyrgyzstan’s greenhouse gas emissions, 1970 to 2012, with projections to 2100. Source: Drawn using data from the National
Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, World Bank and the Zoï Environment Network.

and theft of the elevated concrete channels by

farmers who have seen them as a cheap way to
obtain building materials.

Kyrgyzstan’s contribution to greenhouse gas

emissions is shown in figure 8.44. During the
Soviet era, heavy industry had no pollution
controls, so greenhouse gas emissions rose sharply,
especially as manufacturing expanded during the
1980s. This trend came to an abrupt halt after the
Soviet Union collapsed at the end of 1991.
Uncompetitive factories and old power plants were
closed and the economy began to focus more
heavily on food production and forestry.
8.45 A neglected irrigation channel built during the Soviet era
near Kayyrma in the fertile Ferghana Valley. Greenhouse gas emissions began rising again after
2000 as the economy began to develop after the
period of stagnation of the 1990s, although 72% of
Kyrgyzstan’s total energy still comes from burning
fossil fuels.

Kyrgyzstan’s vulnerability to climate

change
As shown earlier in figure 8.30, Kyrgyzstan has the
second highest vulnerability to the impact of
climate change of all the countries in Central Asia.
Using the vulnerability index, Kyrgyzstan scored 15
for exposure to risk, 19 for sensitivity to disruptions
and 1 for capacity to adapt. These impacts are
8.46 Kyrgyzstan’s greenhouse gas emissions are well below predicted to reduce Kyrgyzstan’s GDP by an
the world average. Energy use is low, but greenhouse average of 1.0 to 1.5% each year, the equivalent of
emissions are rising as farming becomes more mechanised. about US$70 million annually. The risks are not felt

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
75˚E
KAZAKHSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN Bishkek
Tokmok
Lake Issyk-kul Karakol
42˚N 42˚N
Toktogul
Reservoir
Lake Song-kul
KYRGYZSTAN Naryn CHINA
Ferghana
Valley
Jalal-Abad
UZBEKISTAN
Osh
Environmentally sensitive
and stressed regions
Areas of reduced snow
cover
0 100
Kilometres
CHINA
TAJIKISTAN 75˚E

8.47 The distribution of impacts of climate change in Kyrgyzstan. In addition to the areas shown, all rivers are projected to have
reduced certainty of water availability for farmers and seasonally altered flows due to earlier melting of snow and reduced snow
cover. Source: After the Zoï Environment Network.

uniformly across the country, and figure 8.47 shows

the distribution of the main risks.

In Kyrgyzstan, the initial impacts of climate change

— which are, like Albania, rising temperatures and
decreasing precipitation — will be to reduce the
country’s groundwater reserves and to lower river
flow, thus reducing hydroelectric power. Another
impact of climate change is to reduce the purity of
water flowing through the country’s rivers, which
affects the quality of water available for drinking
and irrigation. A further risk will arise each spring
as additional melting of snow and glaciers increases
the risk of flooding in inhabited farmlands and 8.48 The deep canyon of the Naryn River in western
urban centres. It is predicted that as a mountain Kyrgyzstan houses five dams built during the Soviet era to
country with fairly plentiful rainfall and an provide irrigation water and hydro-electric power.
economy that does not yet need to produce much
The Ferghana Valley in western Kyrgyzstan is
electrical energy, Kyrgyzstan will continue to have
especially vulnerable to the impact of climate
enough water for its own needs, but it may not be
change. During the period when Kyrgyzstan was
able to supply enough water to downstream
part of the USSR, Soviet authorities used the region
countries that rely on water from Kyrgyzstan, such
as a major source for metal and uranium ore.
as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Consequently, the area is littered with hazardous
Food production will be affected as less water waste sites, many of which lie in flood-prone
becomes available for irrigation, crop yields will locations beside rivers that are near towns and
decline, soils will become more saline, animals cities. The Ferghana Valley already experiences
being raised will become stressed by the heat and floods and mudslides, and the frequency and
the lower quantities of fodder available, and intensity of these is predicted to increase due to
droughts and floods become more frequent. climate change. If hazardous waste residue is

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 Chapter 8 - Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption

8.49 Hydro-electric power lines in the deep valley of the Naryn 8.51 Cattle grazing in the bed of the Gulcha River in southern
River in western Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan. Areas where grass cover is minimal and animals are
grazing are especially susceptible to soil erosion.

focused on immediate issues rather than longer-

term planning for climate change.

Rather than a plan to address climate change

specifically, Kyrgyzstan has launched a national
strategy for sustainable development under
guidance from the World Bank and the United
Nations. The plan addresses the water-energy-food
nexus as follows:
Water
• Line more irrigation canals to reduce seepage
losses, which are currently up to 40% of the flow.
8.50 Corn cultivation beside the waters of Toktogul Reservoir. • Reduce the area of crop and pasture irrigated by
inefficient flooding methods.
released into the area’s rivers, they would flow into
• Increase the area of fruit and vegetable crops
the Syr Darya, a major river that flows
irrigated by efficient drip and below ground
internationally to the Aral Sea. The release of
irrigation systems.
wastes could therefore have a serious, widespread
impact on populations across Uzbekistan and Energy
Kazakhstan as well as Kyrgyzstan. • Convert more areas of the country to use natural
gas as the major source of energy, as this is less
The area around Lake Issyk-kul is vulnerable dependent on fluctuations in the climate than
because it is surrounded by about 200 glacial lakes
hydroelectricity (this initiative is being supported
that are at risk from flooding as temperatures rise
by large investments by the Russian energy
and the ice melts. Over 100 rivers flow into Lake
conglomerate Gazprom).
Issyk-kul, but no rivers flow from it. Because of its
• Reduce hydroelectricity generation from 2030 as
environmental sensitivity, Lake Issyk-kul has been
a response to declining precipitation.
given a Ramsar listing, so flooding would have
major environmental as well as economic • Expand the area of grasslands and forests to
consequences. absorb more greenhouse gas emissions.
Food
Unlike Albania, Kyrgyzstan’s administrative and
• Support farmers by building new water
political institutions are poorly equipped to
management schemes and improving the
address the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyzstan
existing infrastructure.
is a poor country, and Government priorities have

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• Implement technological improvements such as 13. Describe the temperature and precipitation trends in
improving irrigation and diversifying the types Kyrgyzstan from 1962 to 2012.
of crops and livestock raised. 14. In what ways is Kyrgyzstan’s climate predicted to change in
• Offer government support in areas such as the decades ahead?
building early warning systems for floods and
15. Write 150 words to describe how climate change in
droughts, improving daily and seasonal weather
Kyrgyzstan is likely to affect the water-energy-food nexus.
forecasts, help farmers manage the risk of crop
losses caused by climate variability, develop 16. Describe and account for Kyrgyzstan’s greenhouse gas
incentive programs to support farmers, and emissions since 1970.
distribute agricultural grants. 17. Explain why Kyrgyzstan is highly vulnerable to the impact
• Use economic mechanisms such as developing a of climate change.
crop insurance program to reduce a risk of 18. Outline Albania’s strategy to address climate change, and
income loss caused by climate variability, comment on its likely effectiveness in terms of the water-
investing in agricultural equities and futures to energy-food nexus.
reduce the risks of income loss, participating in
19. With reference to figures 8.24 and 8.43, compare Albania’s
income stabilisation programs, and diversifying
and Kyrgyzstan’s key trends and projections with respect to
income sources to reduce the risks of income loss climate change.
caused by climate change.
20. Do you think Albania or Kyrgyzstan is in a better position
QUESTION BANK 8B to address the challenges of climate change? Give reasons
to support your answer.
1. Describe the two-way interactions between climate change
and each of the three elements of the water-energy-food
nexus. The disposal and
2. Explain why the initial impact of climate change is usually recycling of consumer
on water security rather than energy or food security.
items
3. What is a ‘bottleneck’ in the context of the water-energy-
food nexus? Give some examples of significant bottlenecks. Recycling of natural resources
4. Quoting figures where possible, compare Albania’s and There is now such pressure on natural resources
Kyrgyzstan’s levels of resource security.
world-wide that there are regular calls for the
5. Compare and contrast the physical environments of Albania responsible use of all resources. Continual
and Kyrgyzstan. improvements in technology mean that we are able
6. Compare and contrast the demographic and economic to recover greater proportions of the available coal,
situations of Albania and Kyrgyzstan.

7. Describe the temperature and precipitation trends in

Albania from 1950 to 2000.

8. In what ways is Albania’s climate predicted to change in the

decades ahead?

9. Write 350 words to describe how climate change in Albania

is likely to affect the water-energy-food nexus.

10. Describe and account for Albania’s greenhouse gas

emissions since 1970.

11. Explain why Albania is highly vulnerable to the impact of

climate change.

12. Outline Albania’s strategy to address climate change, and

8.52 Plastic bags that have been used for packaging are a
comment on its likely effectiveness in terms of the water- pollution problem in many parts of the world. In south-west
energy-food nexus. Niger, hundreds of thousands of plastic bags blow freely across
the landscape until they are trapped by fences or thorn bushes.

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oil, natural gas, gold, or timber from their original
sources, but as populations grow and national
economies develop, more demands are being made
on these resources. Conserving resources is
growing in importance, and recycling is one way to
achieve this goal.

Recycling is the process of converting waste

materials into materials and objects that can be
used. In other words, recycling is a process of
changing rubbish into resources. Recycling has
always been part of human existence but the rise of
consumerism and the expansion of the middle class
have generated ways of life that can be very
8.53 Feeding organic wastes to pigs is one way of recycling in
wasteful of resources. The packaging required to
places where the pigs are eaten for human consumption. The
let people choose their own items in a supermarket pigs even deliver fertiliser to the crop fields when they defecate.
accumulates in such mountains that our attention is These pigs are being raised by a family in Belg, in the Western
drawn to the waste. Large cities generate tens of Highlands of Papua New Guinea.
thousands of tonnes of garbage per day and much
of it is material that could have been used again.

In most rural economies there has always been an

emphasis on recycling plant and animal wastes.
Generally this takes the form of using the wastes to
fertilise soils for future crops, which is an important
facet of soil renewal. It can also take the form of
passing waste from one animal to another in a food
chain that is controlled for the benefit of the human
planners. In the first case, food scraps or inedible
parts of the plants, along with animal droppings
(particularly from those that are herbivores) are
composted to speed up the bacterial breakdown of
the material into soluble plant nutrients. This has 8.54 Community bins are becoming more common in many
parts of the world. They raise awareness and encourage
been done on a huge scale in rural economies such
recycling. These bins are in the Everglades National Park,
as China for thousands of years. Florida, USA.
Many urban dwellers throughout the world now
compost kitchen refuse, lawn clippings, prunings
and any other organic matter such as animal or
poultry manure when it is available in order to
produce better flowers, shrubs or vegetables in the
home garden. Such growing of vegetables where
the input of chemicals can be controlled or
eliminated altogether is now becoming very
popular. In many advanced societies it is a partial
return to the way things were done several
generations ago.

Subsistence farmers often take this process some

steps further. Food scraps and parts of plants not
considered to be human food may be fed to pigs. 8.55 Curitiba, Brazil, has an extensive program to recycle
resources. In this view, local residents have placed recyclable
Their droppings may be washed into ponds used
materials beside the street to await collection by the recyclers.

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for fish breeding where they contribute to increased
growth rates. The fish become human food and the
scraps return to the compost or become food again
for the pigs.

As part of community recycling efforts, the

authorities in many cities are encouraging
comprehensive recycling of materials. Because
comprehensive recycling systems can reduce the
amount of rubbish going to landfill by 80%, this
extends the life of existing sites and reduces the
need to lock up large areas of land for this
environmentally unsound way of disposing of
waste. The end products are recyclable by industry
8.56 This labour-intensive depot in the main market area of
(glass, metals and some plastics) and as compost
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is recycling plastic bottles of various
types, both to earn income and to reduce environmental that will be sold to home gardeners and
degradation. horticulturists.

Paper and its re-use

Timber has some scope for recycling or re-use, but
its continued supply is influenced more strongly by
forestry practices designed to make the forest a
sustainable resource. If the forest is to be used as a
resource in perpetuity, removal of trees must be
equal to or less than the replacement rate, and
removal must not change the forest in ways that
will destroy the natural, sustainable system of re-
growth.

To manage forests on a sustainable basis,

silviculture (the breeding, propagation and nurture
8.57 An extensive community in Bamako, Mali, recycles metal
of trees) aims to achieve a greater rate of growth in
by gathering and storing scrap metal, and then transforming it
into new hand-forged products in their workshops. the managed, replacement forest than was achieved
in the original forest. This already occurs in many
plantations such as those grown by New Zealand
paper makers to supply their mills.

Pressures to increase recycling of paper have

grown with the rising perception that forests are
being depleted at an unsustainable level
throughout the world. Since landfill often destroys
valuable natural resources such as wetlands, the
pressures to recycle increase still further. Germany
has been a leader in encouraging manufacturers to
develop techniques for the recycling of paper.
Acceptance by many users that bleached, white,
high quality paper is no more useful for their
purposes than slightly grey or coloured paper has
8.58 Members of the Zabaleen community in Cairo, Egypt, earn
their living by collecting garbage from many parts of Cairo, helped the cause, and has reduced the toxic
sorting it and recycling it, either by manufacturing new products effluents from paper factories that pose a danger to
or by selling it to larger enterprises. The streets, and even the land and rivers.
residents’ houses, double as sorting centres for recycling.

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Although convenient separation systems and
collection points for metals, glass, paper and so on
have been available for several decades in most
high and middle income countries, recycling of
paper has been slower to gain wide acceptance. A
particular problem with paper recycling is that
paper products are easily contaminated by
putrescent and other waste materials – even
moisture may be enough to make them unsuitable
for recycling. Given present technology, any
additional costs involved in the recycling can make
the process uneconomic. Unfortunately, this can
lead to paper that has been recycled by concerned
citizens later being dumped at landfill sites. 8.60 Paper and cardboard ready for recycling on a truck in the
Zabaleen community, Cairo, Egypt.
In low income countries, sorting through
mountains of garbage for anything that might be easy generation of huge quantities of data brought
able to be re-used in its discarded form (such as a about by computers actually result in more paper
cardboard box) or that might fetch some money as a being wasted.
raw material (newspaper, cardboard pieces) is a
source of work for many people. Where the need is Electronic wastes
great, the proportion of paper and other potentially The disposal and recycling of electronic wastes,
recyclable items within garbage dumps is often referred to as e-wastes, has grown to become
substantially reduced. a significant challenge in recent years. Several
In general, high-income countries generate more factors have combined to accelerate the growth of e-
waste products and are currently doing wastes:
proportionately less to recycle and re-use than low- • the emergence of a substantial global middle
income countries. On the other hand, class with an appetite for electronic appliances
understanding of the need to recycle is growing, and gadgets has raised the demand for electronic
and the means to do so are expanding. The goods, especially computers.
paperless office was to be way of saving paper in
• the decreasing cost of computers, mobile phones,
countries using more advanced forms of
microwave ovens, air conditioners, refrigerators,
technology, but it has not happened in practice.
Some argue that the ease of communication and the television sets, toasters and other goods, has

8.59 Poor residents of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, sift through 8.61 Like e-wastes, disposing and recycling old cars presents
garbage at the city’s major tip (Stung Meanchey) as a way to environmental challenges. This recycling yard in Bamako, Mali,
make money by recycling wastes. is recycling the metal and burning the plastic components of
abandoned cars.

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made electronic goods more affordable to a wider 60
range of income groups.
50
• as technology improves, middle-income earners
are encouraged to discard older appliances and

millions of tonnes
40
replace them with upgraded newer models.

World-wide sales of electronic goods are a major 30

part of the global economy. In 2019, electronic sales
included 350 million computers, 175 million tablets, 20
220 million television sets, 80 million smart
televisions, 10 million streaming devices, and 1.5 10
billion mobile phones (almost all of which were
smart phones). The average life of these goods 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
varies from five-to-six years for a televisions set,
8.63 Production of e-waste in the world from 2010, with
three-to-four years for a computer, and two-to-three projections to 2021, measured in millions of tonnes. Source:
years for a mobile phone. UNU-Wider dataset.

The main areas where e-wastes are produced are 7

the high-income countries of North America,
6
Europe, Australasia, and parts of the Middle East
and East Asia. It is estimated that only about 15%
kilograms per person

5
of e-wastes are recycled within or near the country
that produced the wastes because environmental 4
safeguard regulations in most high-income
countries make recycling expensive. The recycling 3

rates range from a low of 10% for mobile devices

2
such as phones and tablets up to 40% for
computers. The growth in e-waste production in 1
recent years is shown in figures 8.63 and 8.64.
0
The vast bulk of e-wastes are either dumped in 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
landfill, or more commonly, exported to low- 8.64 Production of e-waste per capita in the world from 2010,
with projections to 2021, measured in kilograms per person.
income countries where recycling is done using
Source: UNU-Wider dataset.

Kilograms per
person per year

More than 20

10 to 20

6 to 10

3 to 6

1 to 3

Less than 1

Major destinations of e-waste

8.62 World distribution of the production of e-waste, 2019, measured in kilograms per person per year. Sources: Basel Action Network,
United States Environmental Protection Agency, and Jacopo Ottaviani.

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8.65 Old electronic products, together with other discarded 8.67 An oblique aerial view of a section of Accra, Ghana. The
goods, build up in this trader’s small shop in Accra, Ghana. large zones that are partially encircled by the rivers is
Agbogbloshie, which is also marked by the plumes of smoke
methods that are often hazardous for the people rising from the burning of plastic wastes.
engaged in the work and illegal in high-income One major destination of e-waste is Agbogbloshie,
countries. The incentive for recycling e-wastes is which is a suburb of the capital city, Accra, that is
earning income from the materials they contain. inhabited the city’s poorest residents. This
For every one million mobile phones that are extensive area beside the river is used by men and
recycled, about 24 kilograms of gold, 250 kilograms boys to take electronic equipment apart to retrieve
of silver, 9 kilograms of palladium and 9,000 copper, aluminium, and other materials, for re-
kilograms of copper can be recovered. In some selling to traders who arrange for it to be shipped
cases, the e-wastes are still working, and so people to factories and refineries in middle and high-
in low-income countries may see it as an income countries. The process of recycling the e-
opportunity to obtain a mobile phone or a wastes in Agbogbloshie is shown in figure 8.66.
computer at an affordable price.
E-wastes such as used computers, old mobile
phones and other electronic
devices arrive in Ghana’s ports.
Europe and
North America Those pieces of equipment that
are in working order go to the
Markets Repair shops Consumers markets for sale to local
E-wastes
residents, schools and
companies, while those which
Materials
and parts
Working 2nd are beyond repair are sent to
hand equipment Agbogbloshie.

Ghana’s ports Agbogbloshie Once the scrap arrives in

Broken e-waste
and parts
Agbogbloshie, it takes one of
three tracks. Plastics and other
materials can’t be used are
Burn cables to extract Plastics and scrap
copper
either dumped in the river or
materials
the sea, or it just builds up in
large piles of rubbish.
Equipment that can be taken
Scrap recovery Fires Landfill apart is worked on manually to
Salesmen and recover precious metals (many
traders
of which are toxic) and spare
8.66 The process of e-waste recycling in Agbogbloshie, Ghana. After Jacopo Ottaviani. parts. Meanwhile, boys burn

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to disassemble old mobile phones in about ten
seconds, saving and sorting the screens, screws,
SIM cards, batteries and rare metals. Apple then
sells the materials to recycling companies, making a
profit on the components while also boosting sales
of new phones by taking the old phones out of the
second-hand market. Although this method of
recycling keeps toxic chemicals away from people
and the environment (unlike the recycling in
Agbogbloshie), it also increases the demand for
further resource extraction of new materials. This
occurs because destroying the old equipment
shortens the life of components that could have
8.68 Smoke rises from fires that are burning plastic from e- been used in refurbished phones or other
wastes in Agbogbloshie. reassembled equipment. Unfortunately, every time
metals and other materials are recycled, a
proportion of the material is lost.

QUESTION BANK 8C
1. What is meant by the term ‘recycling’ of resources?

2. Why is recycling important?

3. Giving examples, explain how recycling takes different

forms in countries at different stages of economic
development.

4. What challenges are faced when recycling paper?

5. What are e-wastes?

6. What factors are causing increasing quantities of e-wastes?

8.69 A group of men sort and break apart e-wastes in
Agbogbloshie. 7. With reference to figure 8.62, describe the world distribution
the electrical cables to remove the insulation cover of e-waste production per capita.
in order to retrieve the copper inside. The fumes 8. Compare the pattern shown in figure 8.62 with the pattern
from these fires are toxic, and they poison the of world economic development shown in figure 1.23.
workers, the air and soil of the area; the residents of Suggest reasons why the relationship you have identified
Agbogbloshie have been found to have high levels might arise.
of lead in their blood and rates of death due to
9. Describe the international flows of e-wastes.
cancer are high. Other hazards include the risk of
explosion as lithium batteries can become unstable 10. Why do you think the major destinations of e-waste shown
when improperly handled or discarded. Once the in figure 8.62 might be attractive for entrepreneurs who are
materials have been recovered, they are sold to keen to recycle components and materials in used consumer
items?
traders who in turn sell the materials to factories
and refineries overseas, and then take them to the 11. Use figures 8.63 and 8.64 to describe the growth of e-waste
port for re-export to middle and high-income production, quoting figures where appropriate.
countries. 12. Describe the process used to recycle e-wastes in
An alternative to recycling electronic waste in low- Agbogbloshie, Ghana.
income countries is to use official take-back 13. Discuss the benefits and problems of the ways e-wastes are
systems, such as the recycling programs that recycled in Agbogbloshie.
several computer and mobile phone manufacturers
14. What are official take-back systems, and what are their
have implemented. For example, Apple use robots
benefits and shortcomings?

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9 Resource stewardship

9.1 Abandoned machinery on the exhausted phosphate mine that has transformed much of the Pacific island nation of Nauru into a
wasteland illustrates the sad aftermath of resource exploitation that has been poorly handled from a stewardship perspective.

Divergent thinking about Pessimistic views

population and resource The distinction between renewable and non-
renewable resources partly rests on the assumption
consumption that non-renewable resources are finite and
therefore exhaustible. This view was originally
Despite the abundance of statistical data we have
espoused by Thomas Malthus in the late 1700s,
on resource production, resource consumption,
when he argued that the most basic resource for
patterns of resource use and trends in resource
humanity — food production — increases in an
reserves, there are conflicting views regarding the
arithmetic progression, but population increases in
ways resources should be managed, and whether or
a geometric progression. Malthus’ made some
not we will run short of resources. The conflicting
assumptions that invalidated his conclusions, as
views can be categorised into three groups;
discussed in chapter 2. Nonetheless, the concept
pessimistic, optimistic and realistic.
underpinning Malthus’ theory continues to find

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afford merely to treat the symptoms of the cancer of
population growth; the cancer itself must be cut out”.

Shortly afterwards in 1972, a group known as the

Club of Rome headed by Dennis Meadows wrote
The Limits to Growth, in which the authors argued
that the combination of population growth and
finite natural resources would create mass misery
(figure 9.3). The group ran several computer
simulations on the future of humanity under
various scenarios, all of which seemed to end in
disaster, often around 2015. At the time, computer
simulations were seen as innovative and futuristic,
and the model gained credibility simply because it
9.2 Neo-Malthusians argue that as population rises, food and
other resources inevitably become scarcer, leaving fewer used a computer to generate the output. Even the
resources to support each person. Places where the population basic computer-generated output with its hand-
is growing rapidly in marginal environments that rely heavily on drawn overlay shown in figure 9.3 was considered
local food production, such as this farm near Ihosy, Madagascar, impressively ground-breaking in the early 1970s.
should be among the first to suffer from the consequences of
over-population according to neo Malthusians. Critics of the day claimed that like any computer
support, and followers of Malthusian concepts are modeling, the accuracy of the output depends on
known as neo-Malthusians.

A prominent neo-Malthusian is Paul Ehrlich who,

like Thomas Malthus, believes that there is a close
relationship between population size and resource
consumption. Neo-Malthusians such as Ehrlich
believe that limited resources keep populations in
check and reduce economic growth. Therefore,
according to neo-Malthusians, population growth
should be controlled, because if it is not controlled
by choice, then pressure on scarce resources will
force a catastrophe that will cause widespread
deaths through famine, disease or war.

In 1971 Paul Ehrlich published an extremely

popular book, The Population Bomb, which opens
with the following declaration:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the
1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will
starve to death in spite of any crash programs
embarked upon now. At this stage, nothing can 9.3 The Club of Rome’s ‘standard’ world model plotted a
predicted future for the world to the year 2100. It assumed no
prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate, major change in the physical, economic or social relationships
although many lives could be saved through dramatic that historically governed world relationships. All variables
programs to ‘stretch’ the carrying capacity of the earth plotted on the graph followed historical values from 1900 to
by increasing food production and providing for more 1970. Food, industrial output and population were predicted to
grow exponentially until the rapidly diminishing resource base
equitable distribution of whatever food is available.
forces a slowdown in industrial growth. Because of natural
But these programs will only provide a stay of delays in the system, both population and pollution continue to
execution unless they are accompanied by determined increase for some time after the peak of industrialisation.
and successful efforts at population control… Population growth would be finally halted by a rise in the death
Nothing could be more misleading to our children rate due to decreased food and medical services. N.B., B = birth
rates, D = death rates, S = services per capita. Source: DH
than our present affluent society. We can no longer
Meadows et.al. (1972) The Limits to Growth, New York: Universe. p.124.

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the assumptions made, so “garbage in, garbage Optimistic views
out”. Nonetheless, the Limits to Growth forecasts
seemed like common sense in the context of the Anti-Malthusians such as Ester Boserup reject the
trends being observed at the time, and the neo-Malthusian view that an increasing population
conclusions paralleled those of Thomas Malthus depletes food resources. On the contrary, she
two centuries earlier. argued in 1965 that more people means more food,
because people are productive resources, and have
Like Ehrlich’s predictions, the Limits to Growth
the capacity to increase food production. In other
simulations proved to be pessimistic and
words, every consumer is also a producer. Her
inaccurate. The reasons that the model failed to
views have sometimes been summarised in the
predict future events accurately included:
words of an old proverb: “With every mouth, God
• it did not allow for sufficient technical sends a pair of hands”, although Boserup’s views
innovations. would more accurately add that every mouth has a
• it did not allow for trade to transport resources pair of hands and a brain that drives ingenuity and
from surplus to deficit areas. change.

• even the its lowest population projections Boserup was a Danish economist who developed
exceeded the population growth that actually her ideas while working for the United Nations in
occurred. low and middle-income countries. Having
• it was over-simplistic in looking only at global observed farming communities at first hand, she
averages, ignoring regional and continental realised that when populations grow rapidly, the
differences in population growth, resource challenge to feed more people and the threat of
hunger motivates farmers to improve their
availability, capacity to innovate, and wealth.
productivity and find new ways of innovating. As
Neo-Malthusianism has had fewer proponents a consequence, rising populations in farming
since 2000 as the dire predictions of the 1970s did societies tend to be inventive in finding new
not eventuate. Indeed, in spite of the world’s technologies, and generally see food production
continuing population growth, the world has more rising faster than population growth. Boserup
food per capita today than at any time in human described this as agricultural intensification.
history, although a global slowing in the rate of
population growth has contributed to this situation.

Nonetheless, neo-Malthusians such as Paul Ehrlich

continue to argue that an increasing population will
place so much pressure on food and other resources
that current trends are unsustainable. They claim
that technological changes such as the Green
Revolution have only deferred the moment of
disaster, using as evidence the planet’s loss of
biodiversity, climate change, over-fishing, air and
water pollution, rising food prices, rising meat
consumption, rising urbanisation and rising
population. Ehrlich remains as pessimistic as ever.

Countries that have implemented anti-natalist 9.4 Mounding is an example of the kind of innovation that
boosts farming productivity in an area with a rapidly growing
population policies, such as China’s One Child
population, as Boserup observed. The Highlands of Papua New
Policy, usually base the policy on neo- Guinea are the most densely settled part of the country. In the
Malthusianism. The concept that usually high altitude mountain atmosphere, cool moist night-time air
underpins anti-natalist population policies is that sinks to the bottom of the artificially constructed mounds, thus
resources are limited, and by limiting population protecting the sweet potatoes that are planted near the tops of
the mounds from frosts, and boosting yields. These mounds,
growth, more resources will be available for each
which about a metre high and three metres in diameter, are
person. west of Mount Hagen.

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Other anti-Malthusians such as Julian Simon agree
with Boserup’s view, and quote statistics and
historical examples to support their case. In his
1996 book The Ultimate Resource 2, Julian Simon
argued that scarcity drives innovation, and
innovation overcomes the limits to growth that neo-
Malthusians forecast. As an economist, Julian
Simon stated that the true measure of scarcity is
not the physical quantity of a resource, but price. If
something is becoming scarcer, its price will
increase. Similarly, if something is becoming more
abundant, its price will fall.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, the

9.5 For economists, fuel prices reflect scarcity. The prices
evidence is that over time, the price of almost every
displayed outside this petrol station in Curitiba, Brazil, therefore
natural resource (adjusted for inflation) is reflect resource scarcity. When prices rise, the resource has
decreasing, indicating that resources are becoming become scarcer, and when prices fall, the resource has become
less scarce or more abundant. more abundant. Long-term prices for resources reveal whether
they are becoming scarcer or more abundant.
In 1931 Harold Hotelling, one of the most respected
resource economists at the time, predicted that the copper by 18%, chrome by 40%, nickel by 3%, tin by
real price of oil and of other fixed resources would 72%, and tungsten by 57%. Although Paul Ehrlich
rise as the amount left on earth decreased. paid the bet, his views about resource scarcity did
However, as figure 7.55 showed, the evidence is not change, and he continues to insist that resources
that apart from geopolitically-motivated price will become scarcer – and thus more expensive.
increases, the price of petrol has remained fairly Anti-Malthusians use this evidence to explain why
steady in the long-term when inflation is taken into neo-Malthusian arguments that population growth
account. If the price of petrol is related to the ‘real’ will reduce resources seem to be incorrect. In the
cost of purchasing it, which is the number of hours short run, population increases will drive up the
needed by an average person to earn the money to demand for natural resources and therefore their
buy a litre of petrol, then the price has declined. prices. However, when this happens, the high
Anti-Malthusians argue that the same analysis prices prompt entrepreneurs and innovators to find
could be applied to almost every natural resource, new resources, or new ways of obtaining existing
as long-term studies show the prices of most resources more cheaply.
natural resources have declined over time,
indicating greater abundance rather than scarcity Julian Simon quoted the example of billiard balls
from an economic perspective. that used to be made from the ivory of elephants’
tusks. As the demand for billiard balls increased,
In a famous incident, Julian Simon publicised his elephants became a scarce resource, because their
views with a bet. In 1980 he challenged Paul breeding time was slower than the increase in
Ehrlich to a bet of several thousand US dollars that demand for ivory. Consequently, researchers
natural resources would become cheaper rather looked for substitutes, and this resulted in the
than more expensive over the next ten years. development of celluloid, which was the prototype
Simon’s reasoning was that if natural resources of plastic. As a result of the shortage of ivory,
were to become scarcer, their prices should rise. therefore, we now have plastics, which are a much
Paul Ehrlich confidently accepted the bet. cheaper alternative.
Ehrlich was given the choice of natural resources To quote Julian Simon:
and chose five metals – copper, chrome, nickel, tin, “Our supplies of natural resources are not finite in
and tungsten – to follow over a period of a decade. any economic sense. Nor does past experience give
Julian Simon won the bet. During the ten years reason to expect natural resources to become more
1980 to 1990, the prices of all five minerals fell: scarce. Rather, if history is any guide, natural

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resources will progressively become less costly, hence avaricious owner might do. Resource stewardship
less scarce, and will constitute a smaller proportion of encourages a sustainable and responsible
our expenses in future years.” approach to managing resources that looks towards
the needs of future generations rather than seeking
Shortly before Julian Simon died in 1998, he made
immediate, short-term outcomes.
this forecast:
“This is my long-run forecast in brief: the material Rather than viewing resources through either an
conditions of life will continue to get better for most optimistic or pessimistic filter, resource stewardship
people, in most countries, most of the time, seeks to make informed decisions based on data
indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and and evidence that is available, taking a holistic
most of humanity will be at or above today’s Western view of the implications of using resources.
living standards. I also speculate that many people
By the mid-2010s, resource stewardship had been
will continue to think and say that the conditions of
largely replaced by systems thinking as the most
life are getting worse.”
favoured framework for sustainable resource
management. Although resource stewardship had
Balanced views
provided some useful perspectives, systems
Many geographers reject the extreme ends of both thinking provided a stronger methodology to
the optimistic and pessimistic views of resource ensure a holistic approach towards managing
consumption. They see that the disasters predicted resource production and consumption.
by the pessimists have not eventuated, and yet
Systems thinking has been an important part of
can’t accept the optimistic view that endless
Geography for many decades, where farms, cities,
population growth can continue to generate
factories, rivers, the atmosphere and many other
increasing wealth and resource stocks for ever. In
aspects of the environment have been viewed as a
the early 2000s, attempts to find a balanced ‘middle
system with inputs, processes, outputs and
ground’ led to wide acceptance of the concept of
feedback loops. The carbon cycle in figure 5.16 is
resource stewardship.
an example of systems thinking, as is the role of
Stewardship is the ethical principle that views agriculture in economic development in figure 1.36,
managing resources as a responsibility the decision-making process in figure 1.46 and
undertaken as a privilege on behalf of others. In impacts of methane in the atmosphere shown in
other words, resources are managed with the needs figure 4.22.
of the wider (and even global) community in mind,
In resource management, systems thinking
taking into account resource availability for future
identifies the two-way interactions between all the
generations. Stewardship is thus quite different to
elements of a complex network such as a city, an
exploiting resources for immediate profit as a
agricultural area, a neighbourhood, a region, or
even a country. By considering every element of a
system, with its inputs, processes, outputs,
feedback loops and interactions, systems thinking
reduces the chances that key elements may be
neglected or that unintended externalities (such as
pollution, social problems, or inefficiencies) might
arise.

With systems thinking, resource management goals

become a network of targets that are inextricably
linked together. Achieving a goal in one area
requires that contributions are also made towards
achieving goals in other areas because of the
interactions and feedback relationships that exist
9.6 Sustainable farming practices, such as those promoted on
throughout the system.
this sign on a farm in the Napa Valley of California, USA, are
evidence of balanced resource management.

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Event-oriented thinking QUESTION BANK 9A
thinks in straight lines
1. According to Malthusians and neo-Malthusians, how does
A population growth affect resource availability and
consumption?

2. Why were Paul Ehrlich’s 1971 predictions about mass

C D starvation inaccurate?

3. Describe the message presented by the Club of Rome in

1972. In your answer, refer to the Club of Rome’s model in
B figure 9.3.

4. In what ways do anti-natalist population policies reflect a

neo-Malthusian viewpoint?
Systems thinking
thinks in loop structures 5. Explain the differences between Ester Boserup’s and
Thomas Malthus’ views on the relationship between
population growth and food supply.
A B D 6. Describe the process of agricultural intensification that was
identified by Ester Boserup.

7. What is the relationship between the scarcity of a resource

and its price?

8. Describe the long-term trend of commodity prices. What

D C E
does this suggest about the scarcity of those commodities?

9. What is the basis of Julian Simon’s claim that resources are

9.7 Event-oriented thinking (in green, top) and systems thinking not finite?
(in purple, bottom). In event-oriented thinking, everything can
10. What is resource stewardship?
be explained by causal chains of events. From this perspective,
the root causes are the events that initiate the chains of cause- 11. What is systems thinking, and how does it differ from event-
and-effect, such as A and B. In systems thinking, a system’s oriented thinking?
behaviour emerges from the structure of its feedback loops.
Root causes are thus not individual nodes, but they are forces 12. Describe the contribution of systems thinking in supporting
emerging from particular feedback loops. Source: thwink.org sustainable resource management.
Systems thinking in resources management
contrasts with earlier approaches to decision- Resource stewardship
making, which involved event-oriented thinking.
Event-oriented thinking, which was the basis of strategies
decision-making within both the pessimistic and
Resource stewardship is implemented in various
optimistic frameworks, saw the environment as a
ways around the world depending on factors such
succession of events. Each event represented the
as the level of economic development, who controls
consequence of a decision that was usually made in
the country’s resources, the level of environmental
isolation of the wider environment.
awareness and the support offered for sustainable
By contrast, systems thinking views the management. Three main approaches towards
environment in its entire complexity, with resource stewardship that we will consider are:
feedback loops that cause impacts elsewhere if not • conservation strategies
considered. In contrast with event-oriented • the circular economy
thinking, which sees events as a series of linear • the Sustainable Development Goals
consequences, systems thinking is non-linear, and
understands that consequences may be delayed or Conservation strategies
counter-intuitive. Systems thinking is much more Conservation means protecting or preserving
complex than event-oriented thinking, but reflects
valuable resources such as minerals, trees, water,
the world more realistically.

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soft conservation measure. From an environmental
perspective, this approach is far from ideal because
it focuses on the profits that can be made from a
resource rather than a desire to reduce its rate of
use or exploitation.

Efforts to conserve resources are often low on

corporations’ lists of priorities. As a result,
resource conservation initiatives often spring from
interventionist action by governments or special
interest groups. For example, burning fossil fuels
without adequate pollution controls can harm the
environment, and the lifestyles of indigenous
people may be destroyed by the environmental
9.8 An example of hard conservation. In Kouré, Niger, the last
community of endangered West African miniature giraffes is change that resource use causes. Governments and
being protected. Local rangers encourage the local community special interest groups are more likely to take such
not to harm the giraffes, which can be destructive to crops, by issues into account than a corporation whose focus
helping the villagers build wells and give them grain mills, seeds is profit maximisation. Even if governments see the
and fertilizer in return for helping to protect the giraffes.
need to act to conserve a resource, they may be
wildlife, and historic buildings. Hard conservation constrained by the voting strength or political
is the preservation of a resource by prohibiting, as donations of those who would be affected, and so
far as possible, any adverse human impact on the conservation may not be politically possible or it
resource whatsoever. Examples of hard may be less effective than it should be.
conservation include protecting endangered
Genuine conservation is therefore often forced
animals and fragile ecosystems.
upon people and corporations. This can be seen
Soft conservation allows resources to be used, but with reference to three natural resources – oil, coal
insists that there should be no waste of the and forests – in the sections that follow.
resource. The imposition of fishing quotas is an
example of soft conservation. Conservation strategies for petroleum
products
In practice, the development of more efficient ways
to use (or exploit) a resource is the most common When oil prices are high, many people become
concerned about the long-term future of world oil
supplies. High oil prices suggest that oil is
becoming scarce, presumably because the rate at
which reserves are being used exceeds the rate of
new discoveries. People in low-income countries
become concerned that they will no longer be able
to afford oil products, while those in high-income
countries wonder whether their oil-dependent
economies will be able to operate effectively
without the oil, lubricants and oil-fired power
stations upon which they have become dependent.

When oil prices are high, the oil-producing

countries suddenly gain considerable political
9.9 An example of soft conservation. Signs on Tung Ping Chau power. Deals are made between countries that are
Island in Hong Kong designate the areas where fishing is large oil purchasers and the countries with large
permitted and where it is prohibited, and outline the code of supplies.
practice that must be followed by anyone wishing to catch fish in
the area. The code of practice requires that the marine Some countries respond to high oil prices by
resources must be protected, and fish must be treated focusing more heavily on conservation. During
humanely.

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some periods of rising oil prices caused by
geopolitical conflicts, New Zealand imposed a
statutory 80 kilometres per hour road speed limit
across the country, a reduction from the normal 100
kilometres per hour. Consumption of petrol fell by
about 20% as a result. However, not all of that
saving could be attributed to the reduced speed,
since price increases were quite steep at the same
time and this reduced sales. Drivers in other
countries respond to high fuel prices by relying
more on fuel-efficient compact cars and cars with
economical diesel or hybrid engines.

High oil prices generally stimulate research into

9.12 The development of small electric cars is one attempt to
ways of conserving fossil fuel resources more
reduce oil consumption. So far, they have made little impact on
effectively. In recent decades, car engines have global oil consumption because their high cost has slowed
changed markedly with higher power to weight widespread acceptance. Although electric cars do not produce
ratios, and engine components have been reduced greenhouse gases, they really shift the source of emissions from
in weight. Body panels and structural components the car to the power station, at least in countries where
electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels. These electric
have been re-engineered using light alloys to have
cars are being displayed in Geneva, Switzerland.
greater strength and lighter weight. Fuel efficiency
More aerodynamic body shapes for cars and trucks
in engines has improved with fuel injection and
have reduced fuel consumption. Emission control
electronic/computer controlled ignition.
rules for motor vehicles have been strengthened to
protect the atmosphere, and lead was removed
from fuel to protect the health of people forced to
live with motor vehicle exhaust gases. A spin-off
from this was generally better maintenance and
tuning of cars and this also reduced the amount of
petrol consumed.

Orbital, rotary, hybrid and other innovative engine

designs have been stimulated by a market that
began to demand engines that could deliver more
power with less fuel. Research has also looked at
replacing the great reliance on petrol-driven
internal combustion engines altogether. Solar
powered cars get interesting publicity every year,
9.10 Petrol use per capita in low-income countries is lower than
in middle and high-income countries because the rate of car with competitions being held in countries that have
ownership is lower and vehicles tend to be small and more fuel- a reasonable guarantee of many hours of sunshine
efficient. These small tuk-tuks (or auto-rickshaws), which are each day. Electric cars have been produced by
used as taxis, are refuelling in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

9.11 Fuel consumption remains high in the United States where cheap fuel by world standards encourages the use of large, heavy
vehicles for personal transport, as seen here in Houston, Texas.

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many large makers of motor vehicles, but both solar
and electric cars have been unable, for various
reasons, to match the performance of cars with
petrol-driven internal combustion engines.

The continued dominance of petrol-driven internal

combustion engines is due to several important
factors. First, the petrol engine itself has been
greatly improved and has remained popular,
especially during periods of lower oil prices.
Greater certainty of oil supplies has resulted from
new techniques of locating and recovering oil, new
locations for oil reservoirs where once it was
considered there would be no chance of their
9.13 The Lamma Power Station, located beside Sha Po village
existence, less waste at the point of extraction and on Lamma Island, Hong Kong, is a coal-fired power station. It
refining techniques that produce a more attempts to reduce emissions for nearby residents by importing
combustible and therefore more efficient fuel. more expensive but cleaner coal from Indonesia.
These changes suggest that the time when the extension of reserves by drilling to prove their
world will need to worry about oil running out has existence has continually reassured Australia that
been pushed into the future. this fuel will go on for as long as anyone is
prepared to forecast.
Conservation strategies for coal
Coal is used for many manufacturing purposes in Conservation strategies for forests
industrialised countries. However, the most Exploitation of other countries’ forests by countries
important use for coal in terms of the amount used and companies that are able to import timber, while
is for generating electricity. Because of the leaving their own forests intact, is one way that
abundance of coal as a natural resource, its forests are conserved at the local scale. Economic
conservation (like oil) has been of the ‘find a more arguments are used to justify actions of this type. If
efficient way to use it’ variety rather than getting countries in Europe, North America and
people to reduce their use of the resource. Australasia find it is cheaper to buy timber from
Countries such as Australia and the United States South-East Asia than to grow and use plantation
have such abundant reserves of coal that even if the softwoods for internal mouldings or furniture, then
current rates of use continue, supplies will last for local forests are conserved, but South-East Asia’s
several thousands of years. In coal-rich countries are not. If Japan finds it cheaper to buy into
such as these there have been great savings in the forestry enterprises in Australia, chip the wood and
amount of coal used to produce each megawatt of
electric power. Research by those who control the
generating stations has been based on the desire to
be able to sell more of their product by reducing its
price than by a need to save coal.

The coal industry is funding university research by

providing buildings, equipment and professorial
salaries to make the industry more efficient at
every stage – exploration, mining, transportation
and use. In fact, a continuing search for new
markets for coal has stimulated the mining of coal
so that Australia is using its known reserves at an
increasing rate, even though the use of each tonne
of coal produces increases pollutants. The 9.14 An oblique aerial view of forest clearing to make way for
oil palm plantations near Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.

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9.15 Logging an old growth eucalypt forest on the escarpment 9.17 A large roadside in Abomey, Benin, encourages
between Bega and Cooma, Australia. Political reality in Australia conservation by exhorting people (in French) with the slogan
tries to find a balance between protecting native forests “Let us not destroy our vegetation”.
(conservation) and exploiting the resource. The balance usually
development of alternative products to timber for
seems to satisfy neither conservationists nor timber industry
workers. house building and furniture making does lead to
conservation, as does recycling of paper. In some
cases the plastics, fibreglass, cement, aluminium or
steel that become the replacements are large users
of fossil fuels in their manufacture and there is a
transfer of resource pressure rather than genuine
conservation. Nevertheless, the regional saving of a
particular resource may be achieved even if the
world does not benefit as a whole.

QUESTION BANK 9B
1. What is meant by the term ‘conservation’?

2. What is the difference between hard and soft conservation?

Give some examples of each.
9.16 A mountain of woodchips awaits export to Japan from the 3. Describe the effectiveness of conservation strategies used in
ANWE (Allied Natural Wood Exports) mill at Eden, New South any two of the following resources: petroleum, coal, forests.
Wales, Australia.

ship it back to its own factories than to develop

techniques of using lesser quality timber from its The circular economy
steep, difficult-to-access hillsides, Japan’s resources When the principles of resource stewardship and
are conserved but Australia’s are not. systems thinking are put into practice, the result is
Such examples abound throughout the world and a circular economy.
the decisions are made on the grounds of economic The concept underpinning the circular economy is
efficiency. In most cases there are arguments to say to replicate the cycles that exist in natural
that the forests of low-income countries are being ecosystems. An ecosystem is a community of
exploited. Indigenous people may not only fail to plants and animals, together with the environment
receive much financial return from the timber sales, with which they interact. The circular economy can
but may have their way of life substantially therefore be thought of as an economic ecosystem,
changed by the activity. as it comprises biological and technical resources
Because of constant news about the rate of together with the environment with which they
destruction of the world’s forests, research and interact.

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Infinite resources such as Finite resources, such as mining
Biological renewable energy and materials and minerals manufacturing Technical
resources resources
Farming and
food gathering

Materials and parts manufacturer

Biochemical
feedstock
Recycle

Product manufacturer
Soil
restoration Biosphere
Refurbish and
Retail and service provider remanufacture

Re-use and
redistribute

Biogas
Cascades
Maintain
Consumer User
Anaerobic digestion
and composting

Collection Collection
Extraction of
biochemical feedstock

Energy recovery

Leakages
(to be
minimised)
Landfill

9.18 Model of the circular economy. Adapted from various sources, including the Ellen Macarthur Foundation, the World Economic Forum, and the
McKinsey Centre for Business and Environment.

In the same way that an ecosystem restores itself The circular economy distinguishes between two
and regenerates when disturbed, the circular groups of cycles, biological and technical, as
economy is an industrial system that is designed to shown in figure 9.18. The biological cycle, shown
be restorative and regenerative. Just as a natural in green, is based on biological resources, and its
ecosystem optimises the efficient use of energy operation focuses on the key question ‘can our
among species, the circular economy aims to wastes build capital rather than reduce it?’ This
maximise the value and efficiency of economic question leads to production processes and
functions such as farming, manufacturing and packaging decisions that emphasise compostable
service industries. In the same way that natural materials that allow wastes to be retained and
ecosystems are resilient and adapt to changes, the turned into productive materials rather than lost
circular economy is intended to be agile and into landfill.
responsive to changing forces because decision-
Of course, not all materials are biodegradable, and
makers receive signals from such a wide variety of
non-biodegradable materials include many items
sources. However, just as an ecosystem becomes
that have become common consumer items around
fragile and can be destroyed if external pressures
the world such as mobile phones, cars, washing
such as human actions, natural disasters or
machines, refrigerators, televisions, and so on.
chemical pollutants become overwhelming, the
Such items do contain valuable metals and other
circular economy could also break down for similar
resources, which can be recycled, and this brings in
reasons.
the other cycle in the circular economy, which is the

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9.19 Many low-income countries show characteristics of the 9.20 An oblique aerial view of a landfill tip in eastern Mexico
circular economy more effectively than many high-income City, Mexico. The circular economy model reminds us that
societies. These workshops in Bamako, Mali, are resources in landfills represent lost wealth.
remanufacturing metal items into new household goods,
effectively recycling the metal resources. prohibitively expensive, and so many resources are
lost to landfill, which is a leakage from the
technical cycle. Recycling allows resources in old economic system.
consumer items to be preserved and re-used,
extending their resource life (usefulness to humans) A key difference between economic production
well beyond their usability in any one individual and a natural ecosystem is that ecosystems do not
item. The technical cycles (shown in red in figure have an equivalent of landfill, which represents a
9.18), represent a hierarchy of usefulness and loss (usually permanent) of resources and energy.
value preservation, with the small inner cycle In a natural ecosystem, all minerals and nutrients
representing goods that still have an active life and are recycled as dead organisms decompose and
high value through to the outer cycle where the living organisms access the materials that are
value of goods lies only in their destruction and released. The waste from one organism becomes
recycling of constituent materials. food for other organisms, and the ultimate source
of energy that drives the ecosystem is the sun.
Recycling, returning and renewing within the Following the example of natural ecosystems, the
circular economy allows today’s consumer goods to circular economy aims to design products so that
become the resources for future generations, no waste is produced, eliminating leakages of
which makes resource use sustainable as well as resources and energy to landfill completely.
giving an affirmative answer to the question ‘can
our wastes build capital rather than reduce it?’.
However, for this to be effective, consumer items
need to be designed and built so they can be
disassembled at the end of their product life in
order that the components and materials can be re-
used.

Unfortunately, even today, there is a trend in the

mobile phone, tablet and computer industries to
make equipment less able to be disassembled.
This is occurring because electronics manufacturers
prefer using glues rather than clips and screws as
they make devices cheaper and faster to
manufacture, and enable phones and tablets to be
9.21 A recycling depot on the outskirts of Beijing, China. This
slimmer and more compact. The consequence of
facility takes waste products and co-ordinates their re-use and
such decisions is that recycling becomes recycling.

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Proponents of the circular economy model suggest The traditional linear model of economic
that resource efficiency would be improved if the operations has been characterised as “we take, we
concept of ownership could be redefined. They make, and we dispose”. This is illustrated by the
suggest that rather than owning technology when tendency to replace rather than repair worn-out or
we buy consumer goods, we should licence, lease ageing consumer items such as mobile phones, cars,
or rent technology from the manufacturers. This computers, washing machines, and so on. This
model parallels the licensing agreements that apply trend is accelerating world-wide as the global
with many computer software programs or middle class grows and consumer preferences shift.
applications. However, in the case of hardware Whenever old things are replaced, it erodes the
consumer items, it would mean that when people reserve of resources available on the planet, and it
have finished with their washing machine, car, contributes to landfill, often with toxic wastes that
computer, sofa, mobile phone, or any household can leak and spill into natural ecosystems with
item, it would be returned to the manufacturer devastating effects. All but the most optimistic
rather than being dumped. researchers agree that this pattern of resource use is
unsustainable in the long term – or in other words,
This is where the biological and technical cycles
it cannot continue to operate in this way in
shown in figure 9.18 come together. Parts that can
perpetuity.
be re-used are incorporated into new production,
while biological components can be re-processed to The circular economy therefore replaces event-
raise farming productivity. The new products that oriented, linear thinking with systems thinking
are manufactured (or re-manufactured) using these based on loops and circularity based on three
processes would then be transported using principles:
renewable energy, enabling sustainable economic
• Waste no longer exists, as all resources are
production to continue in the long-term with
maintained for as long as possible, and then re-
minimal losses of energy or resources while
used and re-distributed, refurbished or
maximising the yields and efficiency of resources
disassembled and remanufactured, or recycled.
used.
• The circular flow of resources helps to separate
the components of a product that are consumable
from those which are durable. In the circular
economy, consumable resources are mainly
biological. These biological consumables can
either cascade through a succession of further
uses by consumers, or they can be returned
directly to the biosphere where they are re-
processed to enhance farming or biochemical
feedstock. On the other hand, durable resources
are usually made from non-biological materials
such as metals and plastics. In the circular
economy, these components would be designed
from the outset to be re-used, upgraded,
9.22 A truck carries paper and cardboard for recycling in
Shanghai, China. remanufactured or recycled.

The recycling of materials and energy in a natural • The energy required to drive the circular
ecosystem is an example of systems thinking that economy should be infinitely renewable by
was illustrated in figure 9.7. This contrasts with the natural means to the greatest extent possible, thus
traditional approach taken by decision-makers increasing the resilience of the system and
operating primary, secondary and tertiary reducing the fragility of dependence on finite
industries, which has been event-oriented, linear resources.
thinking. Whereas biological resources are consumed,
technical (or durable) resources are used, which is

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The inner circle Circling longer

Cascading use across Pure, non-toxic inputs

industries

9.23 The circular economy aims to reduce or eliminate the

need for new extraction of finite mineral resources, such as the
phosphate being mined in this view of Nauru.

9.25 Four sources of value creation in the circular economy.

Source: the Ellen Macarthur Foundation.

event-oriented, linear thinking which discards

commodities when they age or work sub-
optimally. The faster a product can be
maintained or repaired, the greater the value
created by saving the labour, materials, energy
and invested funds in the product.

• The power of circling longer: The more often a

product can be re-used, redistributed, refurbished
or remanufactured, and the longer a product is
9.24 The aftermath of linear thinking in resource extraction is
often abandoned mines and production facilities such as this used in each cycle, the greater the value that is
former saltpetre mining and refining facility at Humberstone, added by avoiding expenditure on the labour,
Chile. materials, energy and investment required to
why the circular economy model distinguishes create a new product or component.
between consumers (of biological resources) and
• The power of cascaded use: Cascaded use of a
users (of technical resources). This distinction
resource occurs when wastes from one industry
emphasises the aim of returning biological
are used productively in other industries. An
resources to the biosphere but reprocessing or
example of cascaded use would be cotton use in
recycling durable commodities rather than
new clothing, which cascades first as second-
consuming them.
hand clothing, and then cascades through a
The circular economy model offers four ways that succession of other uses such as filling cushions
value is created because used materials should be for furniture and then insulation for housing
available more cheaply than new resources that are before being returned to the biosphere where it
brought into the system. These four methods are decomposes to produce nutrients for new
shown in figure 9.25, and the value creation is growth.
sometimes referred to as the ‘four powers’:
• The power of pure inputs: Resources that are
• The power of the inner circle: The inner circle uncontaminated with toxic materials add value
refers to maintaining technical materials to because they can be safely re-used while
prolong their working lives. This contrasts with maintaining the quality of the products they help

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to form. This extends the life of products and
reduces wastage to landfill.

While the circular economy model applies to

individual companies and manufacturers, its
potential will only be realised when entire national
economies adapt to the model, and ideally, if it
were to be adopted for the global economy.
Nonetheless, there is evidence that some companies
are restructuring to operate within the circular
economy model. Some examples of the circular
economy include:

• Ricoh, a Japanese multinational imaging and

electronics company, focuses on the power of the 9.26 This recycling facility in Sydney, Australia, sorts materials
inner circle by designing its products (such as for recycling to minimise resource loss through wastage. The
small mountain of paper and cardboard rises from a recessed
printers and photocopiers) so they can be easily
pit, so the total pile is about five times the height of this car and
maintained with replacement parts, and reused almost twice the length of the car in diameter.
or recycled at the end of their working lives. For
its products that cannot be remanufactured, by recycling materials to reduce waste and
remanufactured or upgraded, it recycles the pollution, by using renewable energy sources
components for use in new component where possible, and eliminating harmful impacts
on the environment by taking account of all the
production.
feedback loops in the economy.
• Renault, a French multinational automobile
manufacturer, focuses on the power of cycling QUESTION BANK 9C
longer by refurbishing the sub-assemblies of 1. Explain how the circular economy tries to replicate the
long-lasting car parts such as engines, gearboxes efficiencies of natural ecosystems.
and pumps from used cars and returning them to
2. Identify the two groups of cycles in the circular economy
the market at discounted prices of 30% to 50%
that are shown in figure 9.18, and define what differentiates
from the price of equivalent new parts. Renault
them.
has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in
revenue selling these parts that were once 3. Write about 400 words to describe the workings of the
circular economy as shown in figure 9.18.
dumped or abandoned as scrap metal.
4. Why should leakages from the circular economy be
• H&M, a Swedish multinational retail clothing
minimised or eliminated?
company, focuses on the power of cascading use
across industries and the power of circling 5. What would be the effect of changing ownership of
longer by launching a world-wide in-store consumer goods to a system of licensing, leasing or
clothing collection system in exchange for a renting?
shopping voucher. The used clothes received are 6. Describe the three principles upon which the circular
sorted in warehouses in Germany, India and the economy is based.
United States, and directed to one of four uses:
7. Explain how each of the ‘four powers’ creates value in the
re-wearing ‘as is’, re-use, recycling or energy
circular economy.
generation.
8. Briefly describe some examples of the circular economy in
Rather than using event-oriented thinking, which action today, including any examples you know about
processes raw materials and turns out products and through your personal experience or fieldwork.
wastes in a linear succession, the circular economy
9. In about 150 words, describe the value of the circular
uses systems thinking to emphasise the effective
economy as a systems approach for the effective cycling of
cycling of materials and energy. A circular materials and energy.
economy maximises the productivity of resources

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The UN Sustainable Development governments, the SDGs are designed to be seen as
an integrated, holistic system. Companies and
Goals governments are encouraged to address the SDGs
In an effort to activate genuine global sustainable in their entirety rather than picking and choosing a
development, the United Nations adopted a set of few goals in isolation. In this way, the SDGs reflect
17 goals called the Sustainable Development systems thinking that is consistent with the
Goals (or SDGs) in 2015. The SDGs replaced an circular economy.
earlier set of eight goals, known as the Millennium The SDGs, with their specific targets as detailed by
Development Goals (or MDGs), which covered the the United Nations, are:
period 2000 to 2015. The 17 SDGs relate to the
period 2015 to 2030, and they are the result of Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms
widespread consultation among the United everywhere
Nations’ 194 member states and a range of civil
1.1 By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all
societies from many parts of the world. The
people everywhere, currently measured as people
importance of the SDGs was highlighted by the-
living on less than US$1.25 a day.
then Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban
Ki-moon, who famously stated “there can be no 1.2 By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion
Plan B, because there is no Planet B”. of men, women and children of all ages living in
poverty in all its dimensions according to national
In an attempt to ensure their achievement, the 17
definitions.
Sustainable Development Goals each include a
number of targets, making a comprehensive set of 1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social
specific ambitious outcomes to be achieved by 2030. protection systems and measures for all, including
Unlike the MDGs, where the goals could be tackled floors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of
in isolation by individual companies or the poor and the vulnerable.

9.27 The United Nations has adopted standardised branding to promote the Sustainable Development Goals. The branding is
intended for use by companies and governments that are working actively towards achieving the SDGs, so they can promote their
own efforts and increase awareness of the SDGs among the general public. Source: United Nations, Department of Public Information.

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9.28 Goal 1 - No poverty. This poor urban dweller is in Bobo- 9.29 Goal 2 - Zero hunger. This woman is selling dried fish in
Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, one of the world’s poorest countries. the riverside market in Mopti, Mali.

1.4 By 2030, ensure that all men and women, in markets and opportunities for value addition and
particular the poor and the vulnerable, have equal non-farm employment.
rights to economic resources, as well as access to
2.4 By 2030, ensure sustainable food production
basic services, ownership and control over land and
systems and implement resilient agricultural
other forms of property, inheritance, natural
practices that increase productivity and production,
resources, appropriate new technology and
that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen
financial services, including microfinance.
capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme
1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and
those in vulnerable situations and reduce their that progressively improve land and soil quality.
exposure and vulnerability to climate-related
2.5 By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds,
extreme events and other economic, social and
cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated
environmental shocks and disasters.
animals and their related wild species, including
Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security through soundly managed and diversified seed and
and improved nutrition and promote plant banks at the national, regional and
sustainable agriculture international levels, and promote access to and fair
and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the
2.1 By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all utilisation of genetic resources and associated
people, in particular the poor and people in traditional knowledge, as internationally agreed.
vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe,
nutritious and sufficient food all year round. Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote
well-being for all people at all ages
2.2 By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition,
including achieving, by 2025, the internationally 3.1 By 2030, reduce the global maternal mortality
agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births.
under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional
3.2 By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns
needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating
and children under 5 years of age, with all countries
women and older persons.
aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as
2.3 By 2030, double the agricultural productivity low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-5
and incomes of small-scale food producers, in mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1,000 live
particular women, indigenous peoples, family births.
farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through
3.3 By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS,
secure and equal access to land, other productive
tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical
resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services,

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9.30 Goal 3 - Good health and well-being. A doctor makes a 9.31 Goal 4 - Quality education. Children attend a primary
house call to an elderly resident in Maiao Luo, Guizhou, China. school in Santiago Atitlán, Guatemala.

diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases education leading to relevant and effective learning
and other communicable diseases. outcomes.

3.4 By 2030, reduce by one-third premature 4.2 By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys have
mortality from non-communicable diseases through access to quality early childhood development, care
prevention and treatment and promote mental and pre-primary education so that they are ready
health and well- being. for primary education.

3.5 Strengthen the prevention and treatment of 4.3 By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and
substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational
harmful use of alcohol. and tertiary education, including university.

3.6 By 2020, halve the number of global deaths and 4.4 By 2030, substantially increase the number of
injuries from road traffic accidents. youth and adults who have relevant skills,
including technical and vocational skills, for
3.7 By 2030, ensure universal access to sexual and
employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship.
reproductive health-care services, including for
family planning, information and education, and 4.5 By 2030, eliminate gender disparities in
the integration of reproductive health into national education and ensure equal access to all levels of
strategies and programs. education and vocational training for the
vulnerable, including persons with disabilities,
3.8 Achieve universal health coverage, including
indigenous peoples and children in vulnerable
financial risk protection, access to quality essential
situations.
health-care services and access to safe, effective,
quality and affordable essential medicines and 4.6 By 2030, ensure that all youth and a substantial
vaccines for all people. proportion of adults, both men and women,
achieve literacy and numeracy.
3.9 By 2030, substantially reduce the number of
deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and 4.7 By 2030, ensure that all learners acquire the
air, water and soil pollution and contamination. knowledge and skills needed to promote
sustainable development, including, among others,
Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable through education for sustainable development and
quality education and promote life-long sustainable lifestyles, human rights, gender
learning opportunities for all people equality, promotion of a culture of peace and non-
4.1 By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete violence, global citizenship and appreciation of
free, equitable and quality primary and secondary cultural diversity and of culture’s contribution to
sustainable development.

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9.32 Goal 5 - Gender equality. In many countries, women 9.33 Goal 6 - Clean water and sanitation. Overall, about 10%
traditionally take on jobs involving heavy manual labour, such as of the world’s population lack access to improved water
here in Koutiala, Mali, where the women are pounding grain. sources, but the proportion is far higher in low income countries
such as Niger, shown here.

Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable
empower all women and girls management of water and sanitation for all
5.1 End all forms of discrimination against all
people
women and girls everywhere. 6.1 By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access
to safe and affordable drinking water for all people.
5.2 Eliminate all forms of violence against all
women and girls in the public and private spheres, 6.2 By 2030, achieve access to adequate and
including trafficking and sexual and other types of equitable sanitation and hygiene for all people, and
exploitation. end open defecation, paying special attention to the
needs of women and girls and those in vulnerable
5.3 Eliminate all harmful practices, such as child,
situations.
early and forced marriage and female genital
mutilation. 6.3 By 2030, improve water quality by reducing
pollution, eliminating dumping and minimising
5.4 Recognise and value unpaid care and domestic
release of hazardous chemicals and materials,
work through the provision of public services,
halving the proportion of untreated wastewater
infrastructure and social protection policies and the
and substantially increasing recycling and safe
promotion of shared responsibility within the
reuse globally.
household and the family as nationally appropriate.
6.4 By 2030, substantially increase water-use
5.5 Ensure women’s full and effective participation
efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable
and equal opportunities for leadership at all levels
withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address
of decision-making in political, economic and
water scarcity and substantially reduce the number
public life.
of people suffering from water scarcity.
5.6 Ensure universal access to sexual and
6.5 By 2030, implement integrated water resources
reproductive health and reproductive rights as
management at all levels, including through
agreed in accordance with the Program of Action of
transboundary co-operation as appropriate.
the International Conference on Population and
Development and the Beijing Platform for Action 6.6 By 2020, protect and restore water-related
and the outcome documents of their review ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands,
conferences. rivers, aquifers and lakes.

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9.34 Goal 7 - Affordable and clean energy. A solar panel 9.35 Goal 8 - Decent work and economic growth. Many rural-
produces energy to power a small residential house in the urban migrants who move to cities in low-income countries lack
remote Wosiala district of the Baliem Valley, West Papua, the skills to gain worthwhile employment. The response of
Indonesia. many people is to create their own work, as this young man has
done in Bamako, Mali.
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, 8.4 Improve progressively, through 2030, global
reliable, sustainable and modern energy resource efficiency in consumption and production
for all people and endeavour to decouple economic growth from
environmental degradation, in accordance with the
7.1 By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, 10-Year Framework of Programs on Sustainable
reliable and modern energy services. Consumption and Production, with developed
7.2 By 2030, increase substantially the share of countries taking the lead.
renewable energy in the global energy mix. 8.5 By 2030, achieve full and productive
7.3 By 2030, double the global rate of improvement employment and decent work for all women and
in energy efficiency. men, including for young people and persons with
disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.
Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and
8.6 By 2020, substantially reduce the proportion of
sustainable economic growth, full and
youth not in employment, education or training.
productive employment and decent work
for all people 8.7 Take immediate and effective measures to
eradicate forced labour, end modern slavery and
8.1 Sustain per capita economic growth in
human trafficking and secure the prohibition and
accordance with national circumstances and, in
elimination of the worst forms of child labour,
particular, at least 7 per cent gross domestic
including recruitment and use of child soldiers, and
product growth per annum in the least developed
by 2025 end child labour in all its forms.
countries.
8.8 Protect labour rights and promote safe and
8.2 Achieve higher levels of economic productivity
secure working environments for all workers,
through diversification, technological upgrading
including migrant workers, in particular women
and innovation, including through a focus on high-
migrants, and those in precarious employment.
value added and labour-intensive sectors.
8.9 By 2030, devise and implement policies to
8.3 Promote development-oriented policies that
promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and
support productive activities, decent job creation,
promotes local culture and products.
entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation, and
encourage the formalisation and growth of micro-, 8.10 Strengthen the capacity of domestic financial
small- and medium-sized enterprises, including institutions to encourage and expand access to
through access to financial services. banking, insurance and financial services for all
people.

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9.36 Goal 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure. Two 9.37 Goal 10 - Reduced inequalities. A shanty settlement, or
men make clothes on an open verandah in the main commercial favela, overlooks expensive flats and penthouses in
centre of Malanville, Benin. Copacabana, a suburb of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and
promote inclusive and sustainable among countries
industrialisation and foster innovation 10.1 By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain
9.1 Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and income growth of the bottom 40 per cent of the
resilient infrastructure, including regional and population at a rate higher than the national
transborder infrastructure, to support economic average.
development and human well-being, with a focus
10.2 By 2030, empower and promote the social,
on affordable and equitable access for all people.
economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective
9.2 Promote inclusive and sustainable of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion
industrialisation and, by 2030, significantly raise or economic or other status.
industry’s share of employment and gross domestic
10.3 Ensure equal opportunity and reduce
product, in line with national circumstances, and
inequalities of outcome, including by eliminating
double its share in least developed countries.
discriminatory laws, policies and practices and
9.3 Increase the access of small-scale industrial and promoting appropriate legislation, policies and
other enterprises, in particular in developing action in this regard.
countries, to financial services, including affordable
10.4 Adopt policies, especially fiscal, wage and
credit, and their integration into value chains and
social protection policies, and progressively achieve
markets.
greater equality.
9.4 By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit
10.5 Improve the regulation and monitoring of
industries to make them sustainable, with increased
global financial markets and institutions and
resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of
strengthen the implementation of such regulations.
clean and environmentally sound technologies and
industrial processes, with all countries taking action 10.6 Ensure enhanced representation and voice for
in accordance with their respective capabilities. developing countries in decision-making in global
international economic and financial institutions in
9.5 Enhance scientific research, upgrade the
order to deliver more effective, credible,
technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all
accountable and legitimate institutions.
countries, in particular developing countries,
including, by 2030, encouraging innovation and 10.7 Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible
substantially increasing the number of research and migration and mobility of people, including
development workers per 1 million people and through the implementation of planned and well-
public and private research and development managed migration policies.
spending.

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9.38 Goal 11 - Sustainable cities and communities. A garage 9.39 Goal 12 - Responsible production and consumption. A
with solar panels is used to recharge the batteries of electrically truck transports metal from a factory in Dongguan, China, for
powered cars in Malmö, Sweden. recycling and re-use.

Goal 11. Make cities and human 11.7 By 2030, provide universal access to safe,
settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, in
sustainable particular for women and children, older persons
and persons with disabilities.
11.1 By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe
and affordable housing and basic services and Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption
upgrade slums. and production patterns
11.2 By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, 12.1 Implement the 10-Year Framework of
accessible and sustainable transport systems for all Programs on Sustainable Consumption and
people, improving road safety, notably by Production Patterns, all countries taking action,
expanding public transport, with special attention with developed countries taking the lead, taking
to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, into account the development and capabilities of
women, children, persons with disabilities and developing countries.
older persons.
12.2 By 2030, achieve the sustainable management
11.3 By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable and efficient use of natural resources.
urbanisation and capacity for participatory,
12.3 By 2030, halve per capita global food waste at
integrated and sustainable human settlement
the retail and consumer levels and reduce food
planning and management in all countries.
losses along production and supply chains,
11.4 Strengthen efforts to protect and safeguard the including post-harvest losses.
world’s cultural and natural heritage.
12.4 By 2020, achieve the environmentally sound
11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of management of chemicals and all wastes
deaths and the number of people affected and throughout their life cycle, in accordance with
substantially decrease the direct economic losses agreed international frameworks, and significantly
relative to global gross domestic product caused by reduce their release to air, water and soil in order to
disasters, including water-related disasters, with a minimise their adverse impacts on human health
focus on protecting the poor and people in and the environment.
vulnerable situations.
12.5 By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation
11.6 By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse.
environmental impact of cities, including by paying
12.6 Encourage companies, especially large and
special attention to air quality and municipal and
transnational companies, to adopt sustainable
other waste management.
practices and to integrate sustainability information
into their reporting cycle.

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9.40 Goal 13 - Climate action. Residents of Betio, Kiribati, 9.41 Goal 14 - Life below water. Men and boys in Cape Coast,
work together to build a seawall to protect the land from rising Ghana, who spend their lives catching fish, repair nets and
sea levels caused by climate change. prepare for their next expedition.

12.7 Promote public procurement practices that are 14.3 Minimise and address the impacts of ocean
sustainable, in accordance with national policies acidification, including through enhanced scientific
and priorities. cooperation at all levels.

12.8 By 2030, ensure that people everywhere have 14.4 By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and
the relevant information and awareness for end overfishing, illegal, unreported and
sustainable development and lifestyles in harmony unregulated fishing and destructive fishing
with nature. practices and implement science-based
management plans, in order to restore fish stocks in
Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat the shortest time feasible, at least to levels that can
climate change and its impacts produce maximum sustainable yield as determined
13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to by their biological characteristics.
climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all
14.5 By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal
countries.
and marine areas, consistent with national and
13.2 Integrate climate change measures into international law and based on the best available
national policies, strategies and planning. scientific information.

13.3 Improve education, awareness-raising and 14.6 By 2020, prohibit certain forms of fisheries
human and institutional capacity on climate change subsidies which contribute to overcapacity and
mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early overfishing, eliminate subsidies that contribute to
warning. illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and
refrain from introducing new such subsidies,
Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use recognising that appropriate and effective special
the oceans, seas and marine resources for and differential treatment for developing and least
sustainable development developed countries should be an integral part of
14.1 By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce the World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies
marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from negotiation.
land-based activities, including marine debris and 14.7 By 2030, increase the economic benefits to
nutrient pollution. small island developing States and least developed
countries from the sustainable use of marine
14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect
resources, including through sustainable
marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant
management of fisheries, aquaculture and tourism.
adverse impacts, including by strengthening their
resilience, and take action for their restoration in
order to achieve healthy and productive oceans.

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9.42 Goal 15 - Life on land. Cattle wander across parched 9.43 Goal 16 - Peace, justice and strong institutions. A
farmland near Kouré, Niger, a region that is threatened by United Nations peace-keeping vehicle patrols the streets of
desertification. Monrovia, Liberia.

Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote resources and promote appropriate access to such
sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, resources, as internationally agreed.
sustainably manage forests, combat 15.7 Take urgent action to end poaching and
desertification, and halt and reverse land trafficking of protected species of flora and fauna
degradation and halt biodiversity loss and address both demand and supply of illegal
wildlife products.
15.1 By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration
and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland 15.8 By 2020, introduce measures to prevent the
freshwater ecosystems and their services, in introduction and significantly reduce the impact of
particular forests, wetlands, mountains and invasive alien species on land and water
drylands, in line with obligations under ecosystems and control or eradicate the priority
international agreements. species.
15.2 By 2020, promote the implementation of 15.9 By 2020, integrate ecosystem and biodiversity
sustainable management of all types of forests, halt values into national and local planning,
deforestation, restore degraded forests and development processes, poverty reduction
substantially increase afforestation and strategies and accounts.
reforestation globally.
Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive
15.3 By 2030, combat desertification, restore societies for sustainable development,
degraded land and soil, including land affected by
provide access to justice for all and build
desertification, drought and floods, and strive to
effective, accountable and inclusive
achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
institutions at all levels
15.4 By 2030, ensure the conservation of mountain
16.1 Significantly reduce all forms of violence and
ecosystems, including their biodiversity, in order to
related death rates everywhere.
enhance their capacity to provide benefits that are
essential for sustainable development. 16.2 End abuse, exploitation, trafficking and all
forms of violence against and torture of children.
15.5 Take urgent and significant action to reduce
the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of 16.3 Promote the rule of law at the national and
biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the international levels and ensure equal access to
extinction of threatened species. justice for all.

15.6 Promote fair and equitable sharing of the 16.4 By 2030, significantly reduce illicit financial
benefits arising from the utilisation of genetic and arms flows, strengthen the recovery and return

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9.44 Goal 17 - Partnerships for the Goals. A large freight 9.45 Goal 17 - Partnerships for the Goals. A container ship
vessel passes the homes of local residents on the coastline of laden with cargo for export leave the port in Havana, Cuba.
Cotonou, Benin.

of stolen assets and combat all forms of organised assistance (ODA/GNI) to developing countries and
crime. 0.15 to 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least
developed countries; ODA providers are
16.5 Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in
encouraged to consider setting a target to provide
all their forms.
at least 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least
16.6 Develop effective, accountable and transparent developed countries.
institutions at all levels.
17.3 Mobilise additional financial resources for
16.7 Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory developing countries from multiple sources.
and representative decision-making at all levels.
17.4 Assist developing countries in attaining long-
16.8 Broaden and strengthen the participation of term debt sustainability through coordinated
developing countries in the institutions of global policies aimed at fostering debt financing, debt
governance. relief and debt restructuring, as appropriate, and
address the external debt of highly indebted poor
16.9 By 2030, provide legal identity for all people,
countries to reduce debt distress.
including birth registration.
17.5 Adopt and implement investment promotion
16.10 Ensure public access to information and
regimes for least developed countries.
protect fundamental freedoms, in accordance with
national legislation and international agreements. Technology

Goal 17. Strengthen the means of 17.6 Enhance North-South, South-South and
implementation and revitalise the Global triangular regional and international co-operation
Partnership for Sustainable Development on and access to science, technology and innovation
and enhance knowledge sharing on mutually
Finance agreed terms, including through improved co-
17.1 Strengthen domestic resource mobilisation, ordination among existing mechanisms, in
including through international support to particular at the United Nations level, and through
developing countries, to improve domestic capacity a global technology facilitation mechanism.
for tax and other revenue collection. 17.7 Promote the development, transfer,
17.2 Developed countries to implement fully their dissemination and diffusion of environmentally
official development assistance commitments, sound technologies to developing countries on
including the commitment by many developed favourable terms, including on concessional and
countries to achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of preferential terms, as mutually agreed.
gross national income for official development

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17.8 Fully operationalise the technology bank and
science, technology and innovation capacity-
building mechanism for least developed countries
by 2017 and enhance the use of enabling
technology, in particular information and
communications technology.

17.9 Enhance international support for

implementing effective and targeted capacity-
building in developing countries to support
national plans to implement all the Sustainable
Development Goals, including through North-
South, South-South and triangular cooperation.

Trade

17.10 Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-

discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading
system under the World Trade Organisation,
including through the conclusion of negotiations
under its Doha Development Agenda.

17.11 Significantly increase the exports of

developing countries, in particular with a view to
doubling the least developed countries’ share of
global exports by 2020.

17.12 Realise timely implementation of duty-free

and quota-free market access on a lasting basis for
all least developed countries, consistent with World
Trade Organisation decisions, including by
ensuring that preferential rules of origin applicable
to imports from least developed countries are 9.46 Goal 17 - Partnerships for the Goals. The side of this
transparent and simple, and contribute to high-rise building in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, promotes the
facilitating market access. value of international trade.

Policy and institutional coherence resources, to support the achievement of the

Sustainable Development Goals in all countries, in
17.13 Enhance global macroeconomic stability, particular developing countries.
including through policy coordination and policy
coherence. 17.17 Encourage and promote effective public,
public-private and civil society partnerships,
17.14 Enhance policy coherence for sustainable building on the experience and resourcing
development. strategies of partnerships.
17.15 Respect each country’s policy space and Data, monitoring and accountability
leadership to establish and implement policies for
poverty eradication and sustainable development. 17.18 By 2020, enhance capacity-building support
to developing countries, including for least
Multi-stakeholder partnerships developed countries and small island developing
17.16 Enhance the Global Partnership for States, to increase significantly the availability of
Sustainable Development, complemented by multi- high-quality, timely and reliable data disaggregated
stakeholder partnerships that mobilise and share by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory
knowledge, expertise, technology and financial status, disability, geographic location and other
characteristics relevant in national contexts.

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17.19 By 2030, build on existing initiatives to goals with no sense of their impacts and
develop measurements of progress on sustainable consequences. Therefore, the integration between
development that complement gross domestic goals is a key feature of the SDGs. In this way, the
product, and support statistical capacity-building in SDGs are consistent with systems thinking, the
developing countries. concept of the circular economy, the ‘nexus’
approach, resource stewardship, and authentic
The interconnected links between the goals are
sustainable development.
shown in figure 9.47. The connections between the
goals and their targets are critically important to The integrated nature of the SDGs means that a
address if the goals and their ambitious targets are company or a country cannot simply claim to be
to be achieved. Indeed, lack of integration between working towards one or two of the goals.
strategies and policies was widely criticised as one Commitment to the SDGs demands working
of the main weaknesses of earlier attempts to towards all the goals and the entire framework,
promote sustainable development, like the MDGs. although of course some goals will inevitably have
a higher priority than others according to the
The interconnected links emphasise that changes in
importance dictated by local circumstances.
one sector of the economy will have flow-on effects
Nonetheless, goals must be approached with a full
throughout the economic system, and these
awareness of potential trade-offs, synergies, and
consequences must be taken into account. For
constraints.
example, the United Nations acknowledged that
many of the environmental protection targets of the For example, goal 2 (zero hunger) cannot be
MDGs were not achieved because of policies and achieved without target 15.3 (soil quality) of goal 15
actions that were put into place to achieve other (life on land) because soil quality underpins the

11.4
5.3 3.3
16.7
16.4 3.1
16.1 4.6 4.2 4.1
5.2 4.3 3.5
16.5 11.3 5.6 3.7 6.2
16.10 5.5 3.6 3.2
5.1 5.4
16.9 11.5
4.5 1.4 3.4
10.7 2.2
16.2
16.8 3.8 6.1
16.3 11.7 11.1 1.2
10.2 4.7
16.6 11.2 1.1
10.6 13.3 3.9
10.3 10.1 6.5
10.4 11.6
8.7 10.5 1.3
7.1 6.3
4.4 2.1
9.5 7.2
9.1
12.8 12.4
7.3
13.1
2.3 6.4
1.5
9.4
8.8 15.6
9.3
9.2 12.3 6.6
2.5
8.2 8.4 15.3
12.1 13.2
12.5 15.2
8.3
14.1 12.7 12.6
8.1 12.2
14.7

8.6 2.4
8.10 15.8
8.5 8.9 14.3 14.5 15.9
15.7 15.5
14.6 14.4
14.2 15.4 15.1

9.47 The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a network of targets. SDGs and their targets should not be viewed in isolation,
but as part of a systematic network of interrelated factors. This diagram shows the links between all SDG targets for goals 1 to 16.
Goal 17 is not included because it is an umbrella organisational goal that links to every target. Source: Re-drawn from David Le Blanc (2015)
‘Towards integration at last? The Sustainable Development Goals as a network of targets’, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Working Paper No.141. p.4

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 Chapter 9 - Resource stewardship

Score
80+

70 to 80

60 to 70

50 to 60

40 to 50

< 40

No data

9.48 Index of progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 2019. Source: Drawn from data by Sustainable
Development Solutions Network and BertelsmannStiftung. dashboards.sdgindex.org

entire food production system. Linking the goals When assessing the progress of various countries
requires a extensive consultation and co-operation, towards meeting the SDGs through to 2030, it is
and putting this into place is the focus of goal 17. important to remember that some countries are
starting the process further behind than others.
At the wider level, goal 3 (good health and well-
being) is affected by (and affects) goals 2 (zero The United Nations have developed an index to
hunger), 4 (quality education), 6 (clean water and measure each country’s progress towards achieving
sanitation), and 13 (climate action). Goal 11 the SDGs. The index takes all 17 goals into account,
(sustainable cities and communities) is affected by and calculates a score between 0 (the worst) and
(and affects) goals 2 (zero hunger), 4 (quality 100 (the best) which signifies how far towards
education), 7 (affordable and clean energy), 9 meeting the SDGs a country has progressed. An
(industry, innovation and infrastructure), and initial assessment was undertaken in 2016 to show
perhaps others. the starting point for countries as they begin
working towards the SDGs.
The same applies to every goal – each is
inextricably linked by cause-and-effect Figure 9.48 shows the progress of all countries that
interrelationships with other SDGs. The challenge were assessed in 2019. The highest-ranking
posed by the SDGs is therefore ensuring that all the country is Denmark, with a score of 85.2, indicating
individual goals are addressed with due account of that Denmark is on average 85.2% along the way to
their interactions with the other goals. As the IISD the best possible outcome across the 17 SDGs. The
(International Institute for Sustainable next highest-ranking countries were Sweden (85.0),
Development) expressed it, the challenge is Finland (82.8), France (81.5) and both Austria and
“teaching the traditional silos to dance with each Germany (81.1). The lowest ranking country of the
other to achieve transformation”. 162 countries assessed was the Central African
Republic (39.1), followed by Chad (42.8), DR Congo
The SDGs are designed to apply equally to
(44.9), Nigeria (46.4) and Madagascar (46.7).
developed and developing countries, and they have
been made freely available to companies, NGOs, In general, the highest-ranking countries were in
civil societies, governments and authorities Europe, which is where the top ten ranking
everywhere. The United Nations is encouraging countries were located. In general, the significant
everyone to get behind the SDGs and help meet the shortcomings for these high-ranking countries
ambitious targets that have been set. were in goals 7 (affordable, clean energy) and 13
(climate action).

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 Chapter 9 - Resource stewardship
1 85.2 35 74.5 38 73.9

Denmark USA Australia

$60,190 0.929 $62,850 0.924 $53,190 0.939

39 73.2 55 70.9 57 70.6

China Russia Brazil

$9,470 0.752 $10,230 0.816 $9,140 0.759

60 70.3 112 61.8 115 61.1

Albania Cambodia India

$4,860 0.785 $1,380 0.582 $2,020 0.640

128 55.8 158 46.7 162 39.1

Tanzania Madagascar C.A.R.

$1,020 0.538 $440 0.519 $480 0.367

9.49 SDG dashboards for 12 selected countries, 2019. Progress towards each goal is shown by the percentage filled in blue within
each sector, labelled SDG1 to SDG17. Red figures show the country’s ranking out of 162 countries assessed, while green figures show
the SDG score that measures the percentage of progress made towards achievement. Blue figures show the GNI per capita in US
dollars, and purple figures show the HDI. They grey sector for C.A.R. (Central African Republic) indicates that goal 14 is not relevant,
as it is a landlocked country. Source: Sachs, J., Schmidt-Traub, G., Kroll, C., Lafortune, G., Fuller, G. (2019) Sustainable Development Report 2019.
New York: Bertelsmann Stiftung and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN).. pp. 82, 96, 126, 138, 144, 150, 172, 232, 284, 364, 420, 448.

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 Chapter 9 - Resource stewardship

9.50 Avedøre Power Station in Denmark, a hi-tech facility that is 9.51 Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar, which was
highly efficient in producing electricity with very little wastage. assessed as the fifth least advanced country in the world in
Denmark was assessed as the most advanced country in the progressing towards meeting the SDGs.
world in progressing towards meeting the SDGs.
education (goal 4), basic infrastructure (goal 9),
The lowest-ranking countries were the world’s inequality (goal 10) and sustainable urban
poorest countries, showing a high correlation development (goal 11). Some of these countries
between wealth and achieving the SDGs. This is also face challenges with peace and security (goal
probably not surprising given that many of the 16), which makes the other challenges greater.
SDGs call for ending extreme poverty (goal 1) and
hunger (goal 2), and for universal access to health The SDGs represent an ambitious agenda. It is
care (goal 3), education (goal 4), safe water and hard enough for a country to pursue economic
sanitation (goal 6), modern energy services (goal 7), development or social inclusion or environmental
decent jobs (goal 8), and sustainable infrastructure sustainability alone. To do all three together, with
(goal 9), all of which are significant challenges for investment strategies that stretch over 15 years or
many of the world’s poorer countries. more, is a significant global challenge for everyone.

Globally, the greatest shortcomings in meeting the QUESTION BANK 9D

SDGs are currently in the areas of climate change 1. What is the role (or purpose) of the SDGs?
(goal 13), ecosystem conservation (goals 14 and 15)
and sustainable production and consumption 2. Why are the linkages between the SDGs so important to the
success of achieving the goals?
(goal 12). Some high income countries score poorly
on goal 2 because their agricultural systems are 3. Explain how the SDGs reflect systems thinking, the concept
unsustainable or because of high levels of obesity. of the circular economy, the ‘nexus’ approach, resource
stewardship, and authentic sustainable development.
Circular dashboards are used to monitor the
progress of individual countries towards meetings 4. In the text, the importance of target 15.3 to link goals 2 and
15 is highlighted. Using figure 9.47, select three other key
the SDGs, and a sample of 12 such dashboards are
targets that link goals, and describe their importance.
shown in figure 9.49. It is clear that the challenges
faced by each country are unique to its own 5. With reference to figure 9.48, describe the broad world
situation, although we can draw a general pattern of progress towards meeting the SDGs.
conclusion that low-income countries will need 6. Contrast the goals that require action by high-income
help from wealthier countries to achieve their SDGs countries with the goals that need most attention in low-
as they lack the financial resources and the income countries.
organisational means (goal 17) to do so themselves.
7. With reference to figure 9.49, choose three countries in
The world’s poorest region, the Sahel region of different continents and with contrasting levels of economic
Sub-Saharan Africa, faces challenges in working development as measured by their GNI per capita and HDI.
towards all 17 SDGs, and especially in the areas of Compare and contrast (a) their overall progress towards
meeting the SDGs, and (b) the goals that represent
poverty (goal 1), hunger (goal 2), health (goal 3),
particular strengths and weaknesses.

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 Index
abortions, 114 biodiversity, 170, 327 213-214, 289-290, desert greening, 222
absolute poverty, 233 biofuels, 267-269 296-297 desertification, 100-104,
abundance of resources, biogas, 229-231 climate change risk and 143-144, 185, 209, 327
307-308 biologically productive area, vulnerability, 188-214 development, 15-28
adaptation, 172, 227 241 Climate Change Sensitivity development aid, 25
advocacy, 228 biomes, 170 Index, 189 development displacees, 96
afforestation, 222 biosphere, 157, 170-175 climate change vulnerability, development indicators,
Agbogbloshie, 302-303 birth rate, 60-61, 65, 77, 121, 288-289 18-22
age-sex pyramids, 31, 62, 67, 130 Climate Change Vulnerability diarrhoea, 181
74, 78, 88, 121, 131 black water, 249 Index, 188-190 diet related diseases, 258
ageing, 71, 79, 105, 109-112, blue water, 249 climate engineering, 221 dietary convergence,
114-115, 117, 122 Boserup, Ester, 306 climate intervention, 221 257-259
agricultural changes due to bottlenecks, 282-283 climate refugees, 183, dietary homogenisation,
climate change, 175-178 boycotts, 229 204-205 257-259
agricultural intensification, Cambodia population Climate Vulnerability Index, diffusion, 126, 230
306 change, 72-75 191-192 direct action, 229
agricultural productivity, 176 cap and trading schemes, cloud brightness, 224 diseases, 14
agriculture in economic 155 Club of Rome, 305 disparities, 45-49
development, 28-29 capital formation, 28 coal, 238 disposal and recycling of
agriculture, 14 carbon cap and trading coal conservation, 312 consumer items, 297-303
aid, 25 schemes, 155 coastal flooding, 168, 185 distribution of agriculture,
AIDS (see HIV/AIDS) carbon cycle, 145, 163 colonisation, 25 254
air pollution, 54, 85, 90 carbon dioxide removal, combustion, 171 distribution of cropland,
Albania climate change, 222-223 commercialisation, 257 253-254
285-290 carbon dioxide, 145-146, communications, 15 distribution of income, 46-47
Albania water-energy-food 150-151, 176-177 composite indicators, 20-22 distribution of population,
nexus, 283-290 carbon emissions trading, conflict, 93, 97-100, 183-184 9-15
albedo, 136, 142-144, 281 217-221 consequences of forced distribution of water
albedo feedback loops, carbon footprint, 241 migration, 93-97 resources, 246-253
143-144 carbon off-setting, 217-221 consequences of internal distribution of wealth, 19, 262
algae-coated buildings, 223 carbon stores, 163-165, 171 displacement, 93-97 divergent thinking about
algal blooms, 181 carbon taxes, 182, 219 conservation, 298, 309-310 resource consumption,
Amity Foundation, 229-231 carbon tetrafluoride, 145 conservation of coal, 312 304-309
amplifying feedback loops, carnivores, 171 conservation of forests, diversification, 227
143, 148, 164 carrying capacity, 58-59 312-313 Doha Amendment, 216
animal migration 172-173 cattle raising, 151, 178 conservation of petroleum, domestic violence, 180
Antarctic ice sheet, 159-161 causes of forced migration, 310-312 donor fatigue, 183
anthropogenic climate 93-97 conservation strategies, droughts, 167-168, 185
change, 144, 159, 162 causes of internal 309-313 dynamic equilibrium, 158
anthropogenic greenhouse displacement, 93-97 consumer items disposal and e-waste (see electronic
gas emissions, 149-155 chain migration, 35 recycling, 297-303 wastes)
anti-Malthusianism, 306 changing rates of conurbation, 91 Earth Summit, 215
anti-natalist policies, 117-122 development, 23-28 convergence of diets, ecological deficits, 242
anti-trafficking policies, Chernobyl, 266 257-259 ecological footprint
122-124 China economic coral reefs, 165 shortcomings, 243-245
anxiety, 180 development, 52-56 corporate boycotts, 229 ecological footprint, 239-245
appropriate technology, 235 China population, 50-52, corporate strategies to ecological niches, 172
Arab Spring, 97 118-122 address climate change, ecological surplus, 242-243
aragonite saturation, 201, China's population policy, 226-228 economic development,
204 118-122 cost of food, 182 15-28
Arctic shipping routes, 187 chloroflurocarbons, 151-152 cotton, 208, 211 economic development and
arithmetic progression, 58 choropleth maps, 12 crime, 40, 84 greenhouse gas
artificial trees, 222 CIRCLE, 282 croplands, 241 emissions, 153-154
asylum seekers, 95 circular economy, 54, 313-318 culture, 39, 237 economic development
atmosphere definition, 134, circular economy model, 314 culture contact, 25 terminology, 15-17
156-157 circular migration, 35, 184 customary tenure, 42 economic dislocation, 38-39
atmosphere, 134-155 circularity, 36 death rate, 59-61, 65, 77, 130 economic ecosystem, 313
atmospheric circulation, civil society organisations, decision making process, economic impacts of climate
136-138, 166 226 36-37 change, 182-183
atmospheric lifetime, 145 civil society strategies to declining population size, 67, economic water scarcity,
atmospheric system, 134-138 address climate change, 71 251-252
autotrophs, 171 228-231 decomposition, 171 ecosystems, 170-174, 313-315
awareness raising, 228 climate, 13 deforestation, 102, 146, 151 education, 44, 48-49, 108, 117,
axis tilt, 141 climate change, 102-103, delta flooding, 185 126, 321
balanced views of resource 138-139, 156-231, 326 demographic dividend, 122, Ehrlich, Paul, 57-58, 305
consumption, 308-309 Climate Change Adaptive 128-132 El Niño, 169, 182, 200, 209
baseflow, 247 Capacity Index, 189 demographic indicators, 18 electric cars, 311
bilateral trade agreements, climate change and the demographic transition, electronic wastes, 300-303
27 water-energy-food nexus, 65-68, 118 embedded water, 248-251
biocapacity, 239 280-297 demonstrations, 188, emerging economies, 24
biocapacity creditor Climate Change Exposure 228-229 emigration, 33
countries, 242-243 Index, 189 dengue, 180 emissions reduction funds,
biocapacity debtor countries, climate change impacts, denial, 227 219-220
242 179-187 density of population, 10-12 emissions trading schemes,
biocapacity deficits, 241, 243 climate change management dependency ratio, 68, 112, 182, 219
biocapacity reserves, 243 strategy, 206-207, 115, 122, 128-129 employment, 323
biochar, 222 depression, 180

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 Index
energy consumption, gender, 195-196 homogenisation of diets, life expectancy, 21, 23, 44,
260-261, 264 gender equality policies, 257-259 59-61, 73-74, 79, 130
energy costs, 183 122-127, 322 hot springs, 145 limiting factors, 171-172
energy flows, 170-171 gender roles, 38, 104, Hotelling, Harold, 307 Limits to Growth, 264,
energy resources, 239, 195-196 housing shortage, 41-42 305-306
260-273, 323 genetically modified crops, Hu Huanyong Line, 50-51 linear thinking, 309
energy security, 276-281 222-223 Human Development Index, literacy, 20-21, 44, 126
energy stores, 171 geo-engineering, 221-225 21-22 lithosphere, 156
enhanced greenhouse effect, geometric progression, 58 human trafficking, 96-97, living standards, 44
149-165, 200 geosequestration, 222 122-124 lobbying, 228
enhanced weathering, 223 geothermal power, 271 hunger, 320 long-wave radiation, 136
enhancing cloud brightness, geysers, 145 hurricanes, 167-168, 185 loop thinking, 309
224 glacial flour, 163 hybrid emissions schemes, low income countries, 24
environmental activists, 180 glacial retreat, 157-161 221 Malmö, 95, 273, 325
environmental degradation, glaciers, 157-159 hydroelectricity, 268, 270-271 malnutrition, 180
241 glacio-eustatic change, 162 hydroflurocarbons, 145, Malthus, Thomas, 58, 304
environmental displacees, global brightening, 141 151-152 Malthusianism (see also neo-
96, 100-104 Global Climate Change Risk hydrosphere, 156 Malthusianism), 119
environmental emergency Index, 189-191 ice ages, 141-142 mangroves, 206
migrants, 183 global dimming, 141 ice cap shrinking, 157-161 manufacturing, 14, 43, 45-46
environmental forced global geopolitical efforts to ice core data, 140 marketing strategies,
migrants, 183 address climate change, ice sheets, 159-161 227-228
environmental migrants, 183 215-217 icebergs, 161 markets, 39, 45
environmental motivated global heat budget, 136-138 immigration, 33 marriage, 115, 119
migrants, 183 global middle class, 235-236, impacts of climate change, mass evacuations, 185
erosion, 100 277, 300 179-187 meat consumption, 259
erythromelalgia, 179 global patterns and trends in import of embedded water, mechanisation, 256
ethnic conflict, 41 resource availability and 251 megacity definition, 80
eustatic change, 162 consumption, 245-273 import substitution, 46 megacity growth, 80-92
event-oriented thinking, 309 global temperatures, 149-150 income distribution, 46-47 mental health issues, 179-180
exchange rates, 19-20 global variations in economic indicators of development, mesopause, 135
expansion diffusion, 230 development, 22-23 18-22 mesosphere, 134-135
export of embedded water, global warming, 144, 166 indigenous peoples, 244 methane, 145-148, 151
251 global warming potential, indirectly caused health microbubbles, 223-224
exporting drought, 251 144-145 hazards, 180-181 middle income countries, 24
external forcing agents, 139 globalisation, 154, 235 industrial output, 150 migration, 33-42, 87, 93-104
external stakeholder risks, government aid, 43 inequality, 324 Milankovitch Cycles, 141
227 government led adaptation infant mortality, 21, 44, 65, 74, mineral resources, 239
externalities, 154-155, and mitigation strategies, 79-80, 124 mining, 43, 238
182-183, 219 206-207, 213-214, 215-225 infanticide, 120 mirrors in orbit, 224
extinctions, 172-174 government services, 49 infectious diseases, 180 modernisation, 38
extreme poverty threshold, grazing lands, 241 infertility, 127 mosquitoes, 180
234 green water, 248-249 infrastructure, 228 mounding, 306
extreme weather events, greenhouse effect, 138 infrastructure, 25, 324 Multidimensional Poverty
166-169 greenhouse gas emissions, injecting microbubbles, Index, 21-22
family planning, 66 210, 217, 230-231, 223-224 multilateral trade
family size, 105-106 287-288, 294 insect pests, 178 agreements, 27
famine, 120 greenhouse gas emissions insolation, 136 national energy security,
farming sector, 28 and economic insurance, 183 276-280
fast food, 258 development, 153-154 internal capital formation, 28 national food security,
feedback loops, 143, 147-148, greenhouse gas release, internal displacement, 93-97, 276-280
164, 309 144-155 100-104 national water security,
fertilisers, 151, 256 greenhouse gases, 144 internal forcing agents, 139 276-280
fertility rate, 63-65, 73, 79, grey economy, 112 internal migration, 33-42 natural greenhouse effect,
126-127, 130 grey water, 249 internally displaced persons, 138-148
financial flows, 25 greying (see ageing) 95-96 natural resources, 28, 238
fishing, 182 Gross Domestic Income per international migration, 93, ND-GAIN index, 193-194
fission, 265-266 capita, 18-20, 22-23 97-100 negative feedback loops,
floating islands, 225 Gross Domestic Product per investment, 25-26, 28, 43-44 147-148
food and land resources, capita, 18-20 irrigation, 177, 208, 251, negative forcing, 139
253-259 groundwater, 279 274-275, 280 neo-colonialism, 26
food costs, 182 growth of population, 28 Itaipú Dam, 270 neo-Malthusianism, 305-306
food insecurity, 278 Guizhou biogas project, Japan's population policy, network of targets, 330
food preferences, 257 229-231 114-115 networking, 228
food security, 276-280, 282 habitat destruction, 173 Kerala's population policy, new global middle class,
forced evacuations, 94 habitat expansion, 174 108, 123-127 235-236
forced migration, 93-104 habitat migration, 174-175 Khmer Rouge, 72 new towns, 83
foreign aid, 25-26 habitat reduction, 174-175 Kiribati risk and vulnerability nexus approach, 274
foreign investment, 25-26, happiness, 20 to climate change, Niger, forced migration,
43-44, 46 hard conservation, 310 198-207 100-104
forest conservation, 312-313 Harper, Floyd, 59 Krakatoa eruption, 141-142 nitrogen dioxide, 145, 147-148
forest regeneration, 238 health care, 47-48, 125-126, Kyoto Protocol, 215-217 nitrous oxides, 147, 151
forestry, 144 320-321 Kyrgyzstan climate change, non-linear thinking, 309
forests, 241 health hazards, 179-181 283-284, 291-297 North-West Passage, 186-187
formal sector of the heat budget, 137 Kyrgyzstan water-energy- nuclear fission, 265-266
economy, 19 heat waves, 166 food nexus, 283-284, nuclear fusion, 266-267
fossil fuels, 150-151, 260-265 herbivores, 171 291-297 nuclear power, 265-268
freshwater, 246-247, 322 heterotrophs, 171 Lakagígar, 142 nutrient flows, 170-171
freshwater withdrawals, 252 high income countries, 24 land and food resources, nutritional transition, 258-259
fuel prices, 182 high rise housing, 90 253-259 oasification, 173, 222-223
fuel-efficient cars, 311 Himba people, 244 land pressure, 37 ocean acidification, 165, 204
fuelwood, 102, 153, 267 HIV/AIDS, 67-68 landforms, 12-13 ocean currents, 146
fusion, 266-267 holistic approach, 308 landscape resources, 239 ocean fertilisation, 223
garbage, 298 homelessness, 84, 90 least developed countries, 24 ocean temperatures, 181

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 Index
ocean transport routes, pro-natalist policies, 116-117, scarcity, 264 tourism, 112
186-187 118 sea level rise, 156, 161-162, toxic algal blooms, 181
oceanic carbon, 165 product risks of climate 185-186, 198-207, 224-225 trade agreement, 27
oceans, 146, 165, , 241, 326 change, 226 sea walls, 204-206, 224-225 trade, 25, 155
oil, 238 profit shifting, 27 seasonal migration, 103 trading networks, 42
oil and gas prices, 182 progress towards meeting secondary producers, 171 traditional social systems, 42
oil consumption, 260-263 Sustainable Development security, 40 traffic congestion, 84
oil prices, 264-265 Goals, 330-333 selection bias, 149-150 transmigration program, 94
oil production, 261-263 protests, 188, 228-229 self-help housing, 84 transnational corporations,
oil trade, 263 psychological motives, 37 self-reliance, 39, 42 25-27
One Child Policy, 108, 118-122 public transport, 89 settlements, 325 transport infrastructure, 27,
optimistic views of resource pull factors, 36-37, 94 sex ratios, 106-109, 120 45
consumption, 306-308 pulmonary disease, 181 sex selection, 120 trends in agricultural
orbital changes, 141 purchasing power, 20 shanty settlements, 81, 83-84 production, 254-257
orbital forcing, 141 push factors, 36-37, 94 Shenzhen growth, 85-92 trends in food production,
orbiting mirrors, 224 pyramid of numbers, 171 shipping, 155, 186-187 254-259
organic resources, 239 qualitative factors, 20 short solar cycles, 141 trickle down, 43
orphanages, 75 quality of life, 20 short-wave radiation, 136 troposphere, 135
out-migration, 33 quantitative indicators, 18-21 silviculture, 299 tsunamis, 203
overcrowding, 42 radiative efficiency, 144 Simon, Julian, 59, 307-308 Tuareg people, 103
overgrazing, 101 radiative forcing, 139 Singapore's population turbidity, 181
paper recycling, 299-300 rates of economic policy, 116-117 Turkmenistan risk and
Papua New Guinea economic development, 23-28 slavery, 123 vulnerability to climate
development, 42-49 rating risks of climate slums, 81, 84 change, 207-214
Papua New Guinea change, 227 snow cover, 167, 281 Two Child Policy, 122
population, 29-42 Ravenstein, Earnest George, social indicators, 18 undocumented refugees, 93
paralytic shellfish poisoning, 58 social systems, 42 undocumented workers,
181 Raynaud's syndrome, 179 soft conservation, 310 90-91
Paris Agreement, 217 reactive measures to address soil degradation, 100-101 unemployment, 40-41
peak oil, 263-265 climate change, 224-225 soils, 13 United Nations Framework
Pearson, Frank, 59 reafforestation, 222 solar constant, 139 Convention on Climate
Penck, Albrecht, 59 recycling, 239, 299-302, solar cycles, 141 Change, 215-217
pensions, 115 313-318 solar energy, 229, 268, United Nations Sustainable
perception of climate risk, 197 recycling natural resources, 272-273 Development Goals (see
permafrost, 162-164, 185 297-299 solar evolution, 140 Sustainable Development
pessimistic views of resource red tides, 181 solar maximum, 141 Goals)
consumption, 304-306 refugees, 94-95 solar minimum, 141 unsustainable resource use,
pests, 14 regulation risks of climate solar powered cars, 311 239
petroleum conservation, change, 227 solar radiation variations, urban development plan,
310-312 relative poverty, 233 139-142 88-89
photosynthesis, 171 reliability of statistics, 19 solar reflection, 223-224 urban hierarchy, 88-89
Physical Quality of Life Index, renewable energy resources, solar variability, 140 urban sprawl, 84-85
20-21 267-273 spatial integration, 256-257 value-chain risks, 227
physical risks of climate renewable resources, 238 Spearman's Rank Correlation vegetation, 13
change, 226 reproductive years, 57 Coefficient, 36 vicious cycle of
physical water scarcity, reputation risk of climate Special Economic Zones, environmentally induced
251-252 change, 227 86-87 migration, 103
planning, 27 resource abundance, sprawl, 84-85 vicious cycle of poverty, 28
plant species migration, 307-308 squatter settlements, 41 Vietnam, demographic
173-174 resource conservation, 54, stability of a gas, 144 dividend, 129-132
plantations, 38, 43 298 statistical reliability, 19 virtual water, 248
plastic, 297, 299 resource consumption, steady state, 158 volcanic eruptions, 145
policies for ageing societies, 237-239, 325 stewardship, 308 volcanic winter, 142
114-115 resource consumption, storm surges, 168 wastes, 298
political conflict, 93, 97-100, divergent views, 304-309 storm waves, 162 water, 13
183-184 resource endowment, 26 stratosphere, 135 water-energy-food nexus and
political decisions, 14-15 resource global patterns and strong sustainability, 244-245 climate change, 280-297
political refugees, 183 trends in availability and suicide, 180 water-energy-food nexus,
political systems, 27 consumption, 245-273 sunspots, 141 274-297
population change, 57-80 resource security, 283-284 Sustainable Development water insecurity, 278
population density, 10-12 resource stewardship, Goals, 319-333 water pollution, 85
population distribution, 9-15 308-309 sustainable resource water related health hazards,
population explosion, 57-58 resource stewardship management, 274 181
population growth, 28, 57-61 strategies, 309-333 sustainable resource use, water resource use, 247-248
population momentum, 69-71 resources, 14, 28, 237 238-239 water resources, 239,
population momentum factor, respiration, 171 synthetic greenhouse gases, 246-253
69 rice cultivation, 151 144 water scarcity, 251-252
population policies, 113-127 rice leaf blast, 178 Syrian refugees, 97-100 water security, 276-284
population pyramids, 31, 62, risk, 188-198, 226-227 systems, 157 water stores, 157-163
67, 74, 88, 121, 131 risk perception, 197 systems thinking, 308-309, water vapour, 145, 167
population structure, 62-65, role of agriculture in 313 wavelength, 139
87-88 economic development, tabular data, 12 weak sustainability, 245
positive feedback loops, 28-29 tariffs, 155 weeds, 178
147-148 rubbish, 298 technological change, 26, welfare, 20
positive forcing, 139 rural-urban migration, 33-35, 264 wetlands, 147
poverty line, 233 40, 52, 87-88, 103 temporary migration, 103 wind power, 268, 271-272
poverty reduction, 233-236 Russia population change, temporary protection, 99 world population growth,
poverty threshold, 233 76-80 terrestrial albedo changes, 57-61
poverty, 195, 233, 319-320 salinisation, 209 142-144 youth-oriented services, 112
power stations, 154 saltwater encroachment, 203 terrorism, 101 zone of ablation, 157
precipitation, 167 sand, 238 thermal expansion, 162 zone of accumulation, 157
price risks of climate change, sand intrusion, 102 thermosphere, 134-135 zooplankton, 181
226 satisfaction, 20 Three Gorges Dam, 270 zooxanthellae, 165
primary producers, 171 savings, 28 tidal power, 271-272
scale, 280 tolerance levels, 171

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