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2024 Q3 Intelligent Income

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
78 views40 pages

2024 Q3 Intelligent Income

Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 40

Q3 2024 Published October 4

Intelligent Income
I don’t like even looking for exits. I’m looking for holds... find Costco’s, not good exits. — Charlie Munger

IN THIS ISSUE Conservative Retirees Portfolio Top 20 Stocks Portfolio Long-Term Growth Portfolio Income Ideas

MARKET RECAP

Dividends Pop as Rates Drop,


But Focus on Finding Costco's
Brian Bollinger

The S&P 500 returned 5.8% in the third quarter, stretching its year-to-date gain
to 22% (and a whopping 36% over the past year). But the latest jump in stocks
felt different. This time, dividend stocks, not AI hype, led the way.

The tech sector dipped 1% while rate-sensitive utilities and real estate
investment trusts (REITs) surged around 20%. No doubt the Fed's decision to
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

kick off its rate-cutting cycle in September with a larger, half-point reduction
played a role (more on that later).

Falling rates and growing hopes for a soft landing also boosted investor
sentiment across cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, consumer
discretionary, and financials. Each of these areas gained around 10%.

As luck would have it, this welcome reversal came right after we noted in our
July newsletter that a small handful of tech giants had driven most of the S&P
500's recent gains, leaving many quality dividend stocks in the dust and looking
attractively valued.

You never know when the market's mood will shift. It's not something we spend
any time trying to predict. But as Ernest Hemingway once penned, change can
happen gradually, then suddenly.

The eight Income Ideas we shared last quarter highlight this phenomenon.

Since their publication on July 5 through September 30, each of these stock and
fund ideas trounced the S&P 500's total return of 3%, with all but one also
outpacing the 11% return posted by SCHD, Schwab's popular dividend ETF.

WEC Energy (WEC): +25%


McDonald's (MCD): +22%
Reaves Utility Fund (UTG): +22%
Philip Morris International (PM): +20%
Air Products (APD): +18%
John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT): +15%
Paychex (PAYX): +15%
Robert Half (RHI): +8%

There was nothing particularly special about these ideas. No disruptive tech
(the youngest company on the list was founded in 1971) or big growth stories.
Just time-tested businesses that looked a little unloved despite their stable
long-term outlooks.

Our new Valuation tool makes these potential opportunities a little easier to
spot. Using our McDonald's pick as an example, the chart below plots an
Expected Price band showing what shares would be worth if they traded within
10% of their 5-year average P/E ratio.

2
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

McDonald's stock traded below this range over the summer as investors
worried about inflation-pinched consumers spending less on fast food. We
didn't think these concerns had any bearing on McDonald's long-term outlook,
and the stock quickly rebounded to its usual valuation range.

I can almost promise you this quarter's Income Ideas will not work out so well,
so quickly. I chalk up the gains above to lucky timing more than anything else.

If you've followed us for long, you know that we never try to guess which stocks
will do well next quarter or even next year. That's speculating, not investing.

Prices can disconnect from fundamentals for a long time – longer than you can
stay solvent, as economist John Maynard Keynes famously stated about the
market. But, eventually, the valuation of a business will converge with its
underlying performance.

Instead of worrying about when that might occur, we simply look for great
businesses with safe dividends, durable competitive advantages, strong
financial health, opportunities to grow their profits over the next decade, and
reasonable or better valuations.

3
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

When we find a company that checks these boxes and continues to do so,
increasing its intrinsic value over time, we hope to hold it forever – regardless of
near-term price performance. That strategy has limited our model portfolios to
an average of 1-2 trades per year over the past decade while delivering rising
dividends every year and healthy capital appreciation.

Unfortunately, many market pundits and newsletter services thrive by urging


you to take action with your portfolio, not remain idle.

A lot of the latest noise I've seen centers around interest rates. You guessed it –
we are not adjusting our portfolios in anticipation of where rates could head
and which types of investments could benefit the most. It's just not that simple
or predictable.

The Fed kicked off its 23rd rate-cutting cycle since 1928 when it reduced its
benchmark interest rate by 0.5% in September. The yellow dots below mark the
22 previous times the Fed started lowering rates to try and support economic
growth and avoid a recession, which is indicated by the grey bars.

Source: Hartford Funds

The Fed's job is tough. In over half of the instances when it first cut rates, a
recession either happened at the same time or soon after. This includes the last

4
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

three easing cycles, which ended with the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial
crisis, and the 2000 dotcom bubble.

These coin flips are anyone's guess. The only conclusion I'm comfortable
offering, though not very satisfying, is that the market's short-term
performance and the best-performing stocks mostly depend on how the
economy does.

JPMorgan looked at each rate cut cycle since 1965, splitting the market's
performance out by whether the economy entered a recession or pulled off a
soft landing. Good news on the economy is usually good news for stocks, with
soft landings historically delivering an average return near 15% in the year
following the Fed's initial rate cut.

Source: JPMorgan Wealth Management

When rates come down gradually – a scenario typically associated with a soft
landing – stocks with faster dividend growth rates have historically
outperformed in the months after the first cut, according to a study by Ned
Davis Research.

Some companies that we think fit this mold today include paint maker Sherwin
Williams (SHW), roofing and insulation leader Carlisle (CSL), payment networks
Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), and payroll processor and HR software and
services provider ADP (ADP).

5
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

But when the economy shrinks and takes rates sharply lower, higher-yielding
stocks in defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples have
done better. Potential examples include utility company WEC Energy (WEC),
snack and beverage giant PepsiCo (PEP), and agricultural processor Archer
Daniels Midland (ADM).

Please don't get hung up on this, though. While many analysts enjoy chattering
about what could happen next month or next year, that mindset risks missing
the forest for the trees.

Since 1970, the S&P 500 has always been up five years after the Fed's initial rate
cut. Recessions and drawdowns in the stock market matter very little over
longer time horizons despite the emotional urge they can create to shake up
your portfolio or sell your investments.

The late legendary investor Charlie Munger made some relevant comments at a
2019 shareholder meeting for Daily Journal, a newspaper publisher he led as
Chairman of the board. An audience member asked Munger how he thinks
about downside protection and when to exit an investment.

In his typical matter-of-fact fashion, he confessed he's not a great 'exiter' as he


bought Berkshire in 1966 and has owned shares of retail giant Costco for
decades. Munger went on to say that he is never trying to have to exit when he
buys an investment.

"I don't like even looking for exits. I'm looking for holds... Think of the
pleasure I've got from watching Costco march ahead... Why would I trade
that experience for a series of transactions... I say find Costco's, not good
exits."

– Charlie Munger, 2019 Daily Journal Shareholder Meeting

That message should resonate with you if you've ever stuck with an investment
for many years to see firsthand the power of compounding dividends.

Most of our holdings have been in our portfolios since they launched in 2015,
including Broadridge Financial (BR). This business helps banks, asset managers,
and brokers work more efficiently and comply with regulations by handling
tasks like investor communications, processing trades, and analyzing data.

A boring business by most measures, Broadridge has consistently grown as

6
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

regulatory compliance needs have increased, financial institutions have


outsourced more non-core functions, higher-margin digital communications
have replaced direct mail, and the firm has expanded its product suite into
adjacent markets.

When we bought our shares nearly a decade ago, Broadridge offered a 2%


dividend yield. The company's dividend has more than tripled since then, so our
initial capital now earns a nearly 7% annual return from dividends alone. And
those dividends look set to continue growing around 10% per year.

With the company continuing to perform well and shares looking reasonably
valued, why would we ever want to part with an investment like this? Especially
since we've seen Broadridge navigate bear markets, a pandemic, periods of
high and low interest rates, and much more with its fundamentals intact, giving
us all the more confidence to hold through good times and bad.

Buying a dividend growth stock gives you a stake in a productive asset – a


company that can innovate and become more efficient to grow its earnings and
pass along part of your share of those profits in the form of a stable and rising
dividend. And as earnings and dividends grow, share prices follow over time.

These are unique benefits compared to money markets, high-yield savings


accounts, and bank CDs, which have exploded in popularity in recent years with
risk-free yields topping 5% for the first time in nearly two decades.

During past rate-hiking cycles, investors have stuffed cash into retail money
market funds (black line below), which have seen their assets nearly double
since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022.

The bad news for savers is that high rates aren't guaranteed to last. Vanguard's
money market rate (blue line) has moved in almost lockstep with the Fed's
interest rate (red line), creating a rollercoaster-like pattern over various
economic cycles.

7
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

Source: Simply Safe Dividends, data from Vanguard and the Fed

The Fed's latest projections, which should be taken with a grain of salt, indicate
that rates could fall to around 3% by the end of 2025. If history is any guide,
some of the funds in money markets could start being withdrawn over the next
year or two as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.

The recent rally in dividend stocks could have some legs if a portion of that
yield-hungry money migrates into income-oriented stalwarts like utilities, but
your guess is as good as mine.

As a dividend growth investor, I don't need to sweat what happens next with
rates, AI hype, or sector rotations.

While our portfolio's value will fluctuate unpredictably any given year, I expect
the companies we own to collectively keep increasing their earnings power and
the amount of dividends they pay us. The rest will take care of itself in due time.

Looking ahead, plenty of wild cards exist that could rattle the stock market as
the presidential election nears, unrest in the Middle East rises, and the
economy slows. There's always something to worry about.

Every week we (real humans, not AI or quant mumbo jumbo) comb through
companies in our coverage universe to ensure our Dividend Safety Scores

8
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

reflect the latest developments and our best assessment of risk.

Not all of our work makes it to the surface in the form of a research note, but
please know we are constantly turning over stones. Our top priority is to help
you navigate uncertainty and keep your portfolio between the guardrails.

As always, please feel free to reach out if you ever have any questions or
feedback for us to consider as we keep working to improve our website and
research.

Thank you for your support of Simply Safe Dividends.

Sincerely,

Brian Bollinger
President & Analyst, Simply Safe Dividends

9
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

Model Portfolios
Follow along our three professionally-managed dividend portfolios

Capital Preservation & Income Blend of Income & Growth Low-Yield, High-Growth
Conservative Retirees Top 20 Stocks Long-Term Growth

Income & Portfolio Growth Income & Portfolio Growth Income & Portfolio Growth

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Dividend Growth Total Return Dividend Growth Total Return Dividend Growth Total Return
7.8% per year 9.4% per year 7.5% per year 9.8% per year 11.5% per year 11.9% per year

About
Our model portfolios are overseen by Brian Bollinger, a CPA and former partner at a
multi-billion dollar investment firm. Brian is a buy-and-hold investor and manages the
portfolios with very low turnover. Holdings are rarely sold so long as their dividends
appear to remain safe and their long-term outlooks are favorable.

10
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Conservative Retirees Portfolio

CAPITAL PRESERVATION & INCOME

Conservative Retirees Portfolio


Portfolio Update • Q3 2024

Commentary
Our portfolio rallied 10.9% in the third quarter, nearly doubling the S&P 500's
5.8% return but trailing Invesco's S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF
(SPHD). Both strategies benefited from their tilt toward rate-sensitive stocks in
the utilities and real estate sectors. SPHD just owns even more of them (34% of
SPHD) than we do (28%), and we have some cash on hand (6%) from dividends
received but not yet reinvested.

Two of our biggest winners were Public Storage (+28%) and Crown Castle
(+23%), which even outperformed the surging real estate sector as short- and
long-term interest rates declined during the quarter. This environment can be
good for REITs since they usually rely on debt financing to operate and grow
their capital-intensive businesses. Lower rates means lower borrowing costs
and a greater ability to use debt to finance property acquisitions on attractive
terms.

Utilities were the other star. WEC Energy led the way with a 24% gain, but
Dominion (+19%), American Electric Power (+18%), Consolidated Edison (+17%),
Southern (+17%), and Duke (+16%) weren't far behind.

Similar to REITs, utilities are capital-intensive businesses, so lower debt costs


are a positive. Utilities are most commonly viewed as bond proxies given their
defensive nature and slow growth profile, so as bond yields fall, utility dividend
yields often head lower, too (yields fall when prices rise).

Philip Morris International was another standout performer with a 21% gain.
The international Marlboro maker continues leading the transition to a smoke-
free future and appears set to gain more traction in the U.S. with its oral
nicotine pouch (Zyn) and the rollout of Iqos, an electronic device used to heat
rather than burn tobacco, which reduces the amount of harmful chemicals
produced while smoking.

The only holding with a negative return in the third quarter was Waste
Management, which dipped 2%. Earlier this year we trimmed our position in

11
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Conservative Retirees Portfolio

this trash collector after it had ballooned to nearly 9% of our portfolio's value
and traded at a historically high valuation multiple. The company's
fundamentals remain strong, but investors were likely more eager to chase
cheaper stocks this quarter with interest rates coming down.

Main Street Capital was another notable laggard with a 1% return. Business
development companies (BDCs) have enjoyed a goldilocks environment the last
couple of years. The Fed's rate hikes boosted their interest income because
most of their loans have variable rates, which adjust upward. However, some of
the debt they use to fund these loans has fixed rates, so the cost of that debt
doesn't rise as quickly. Meanwhile, credit losses remained limited as the
economy avoided a recession.

With an easing cycle beginning, BDCs will generally see their income growth
slow as loan yields follow Fed rates lower. But a soft landing scenario should
still be considered a win. Either way, Main Street remains arguably the most
reliable company in this volatile industry.

UPS was also only up 1% as it battles a number of mostly short-term challenges


around slowing shipping demand, shifting customer preferences, and ongoing
competition from Amazon. See our July note for more information.

Trades
None. As buy-and-hold investors, our portfolios average 1-2 trades per year. We
will always send an email before making any trades.

12
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Conservative Retirees Portfolio

Performance
Income and Portfolio Growth
From inception in June 2015 through September 2024

Income Portfolio Value

8k 240k

6k 180k

4k 120k

2k 60k

0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Dividend Growth Total Return


7.8% per year 9.4% per year

Total Return vs Benchmarks


Data as of Sep 30, 2024. SPHD is the Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility
ETF. Returns are annualized in the Last 3 Years and Since Inception periods.

Portfolio SPHD S&P 500

Q3 2024 10.9% 14.8% 5.8%

2024 Year To Date 15.1% 22.6% 22.0%

Last 3 Years 7.5% 10.5% 11.8%

Since Inception 9.4% 9.4% 13.3%

13
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Conservative Retirees Portfolio

About
Dividend Yield Target Dividend Yield Target Dividend Growth
3.45% 3.5% - 4.5% 4% - 6%
Fri, Oct 4 High Moderate

The Conservative Retirees Portfolio seeks to preserve capital and deliver a safe
dividend yield above the market's average. Dividend income is expected to
grow faster than inflation.

With a defensive tilt, the portfolio has had less volatile returns compared to the
broader stock market, often underperforming in bull markets and
outperforming in bear markets.

Total return is expected to be composed of:


3.5% – 4.5% dividend yield
4% – 6% earnings growth
Brian Bollinger oversees the portfolio and is a CPA and former partner at a
multi-billion dollar investment firm. Brian is a buy-and-hold investor and
manages the portfolio with very low turnover. Holdings are rarely sold so long
as their dividends appear to remain safe and their long-term outlooks are
favorable.

14
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Conservative Retirees Portfolio

29 Holdings
% of Dividend Dividend P/E Entry
Ticker Sub-Sector Portfolio Yield Safety Ratio Date

PAYX Paychex Human Resource and … 6.7% 2.83% 70 27.5 Jul '15
WM Waste Management Environmental and Fa… 5.7% 1.44% 74 27.4 Jul '15
MCD McDonald's Restaurants 5.4% 2.34% 77 24.9 Jul '15
TXN Texas Instruments Semiconductors 4.5% 2.67% 80 35.1 Apr '24
ORI Old Republic Intern… Property and Casualty … 4.5% 2.97% 73 12.4 Aug '20
CSCO Cisco Communications Equi… 4.0% 3.04% 91 14.8 Jun '16
EMR Emerson Electric Electrical Components… 3.9% 1.90% 78 19.1 Aug '15
PG Procter & Gamble Household Products 3.7% 2.38% 99 24.2 Jul '15
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals 3.5% 3.11% 99 16.1 Jun '15
PFE Pfizer Pharmaceuticals 3.5% 5.91% 75 11.2 Apr '17
WEC WEC Energy Multi-Utilities 3.5% 3.51% 87 21.4 Mar '18
SO Southern Company Electric Utilities 3.3% 3.20% 65 21.3 Aug '20
AEP American Electric P… Electric Utilities 3.2% 3.52% 81 17.2 Jun '15
PSA Public Storage Self-Storage REITs 3.2% 3.47% 96 22.4 Mar '18
PM Philip Morris Interna… Tobacco 3.1% 4.58% 64 17.3 Jun '15
ED Consolidated Edison Multi-Utilities 3.0% 3.22% 90 19.2 Jul '15
UPS United Parcel Service Air Freight and Logistics 3.0% 4.99% 69 15.8 Mar '18
XOM Exxon Mobil Integrated Oil and Gas 2.7% 3.05% 80 15.8 Jul '15
DUK Duke Energy Electric Utilities 2.7% 3.66% 80 18.6 Mar '18
KMB Kimberly-Clark Household Products 2.6% 3.48% 88 19.1 Aug '17
MAIN Main Street Capital Asset Management an… 2.5% 5.79% 62 12.6 Jun '21
KO Coca-Cola Soft Drinks and Non-al… 2.5% 2.77% 80 23.9 Apr '20
GIS General Mills Packaged Foods and … 2.3% 3.29% 90 16.0 Jun '15
NNN NNN REIT Retail REITs 2.3% 4.85% 80 14.1 Jun '15
WPC W. P. Carey Diversified REITs 2.1% 5.83% 70 12.6 Mar '18
VZ Verizon Integrated Telecomm… 2.0% 6.16% 70 9.5 Jun '15
CCI Crown Castle Telecom Tower REITs 1.9% 5.66% 50 15.7 Nov '17
D Dominion Energy Multi-Utilities 1.3% 4.62% 70 19.2 Nov '17
T AT&T Integrated Telecomm… 1.0% 5.08% 60 9.8 Nov '17
Cash 6.4%
15
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio

BLEND OF INCOME & GROWTH

Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio


Portfolio Update • Q3 2024

Commentary
Our portfolio jumped 11.3% in the third quarter, edging ahead of 10.8% return
logged by Schwab's U.S. Equity Dividend ETF (SCDH) and nearly doubling the
S&P 500's 5.8% gain. Performance benefited from our exposure to utilities and
REITs, which together account for about 13% of our portfolio's value (versus 0%
for SCHD).

American Tower led the way with a 20% gain, about in line with the broader real
estate sector's performance. Short- and long-term interest rates declined
during the quarter. This environment can be good for REITs since they usually
rely on debt financing to operate and grow their capital-intensive businesses.
Lower rates means lower borrowing costs and a greater ability to use debt to
finance property acquisitions on attractive terms.

Dominion, a regulated utility, was right behind American Tower with a 19%
return, edging ahead of our other utility holding, Consolidated Edison (+17%).
Similar to REITs, utilities are capital-intensive businesses, so lower debt costs
are a positive. Utilities are most commonly viewed as bond proxies given their
defensive nature and slow growth profile, so as bond yields fall, utility dividend
yields often head lower, too (yields fall when prices rise).

Intercontinental Exchange rounded out our biggest winners with an 18% gain,
getting off to a nice start since we added it to our portfolio in April 2024. The
New York Stock Exchange owner and provider of trading platforms, clearing
services, and data solutions has continued enjoying strong revenue growth. The
future looks bright as its strategic investments in energy markets, fixed income,
and mortgage digitalization technology keep gaining momentum, too.

The only holding with a negative return in the third quarter was EOG Resources,
which dipped 2% but slightly outperformed the broader energy sector. The
shale producer saw oil prices slump around 15% as concerns about slowing
economic growth and higher production levels rippled through the market.

Rising tension in the Middle East pushed oil higher after the quarter ended, and

16
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio

energy stocks represent a decent hedge if the Fed's easing cycle reignites
inflation. Either way, EOG's high-quality acreage across numerous basins,
including the fast-growing Permian- should support low-cost production for
decades.

The consumer staples sector was another area of underperformance. This


defensive space usually shines the most when investors worry about the
economy's outlook, but rate cuts have so far fueled excitement for a soft
landing and betting on cyclical stocks.

That's the most likely explanation for Kimberly Clark and PepsiCo's muted 4%
returns during the quarter. Both companies are still putting up earnings growth
even as inflation-pinched consumers seek out cheaper foods, beverages, and
household products.

There could be some bumps in the road if demand further softens and
promotional activity kicks up, but we don't see these challenges altering the
long-term outlook of either business. These companies are among the best at
defending their shelf space and keeping their brands in households around the
world through continued product innovation and advertising spending.

Trades
None. As buy-and-hold investors, our portfolios average 1-2 trades per year. We
will always send an email before making any trades.

17
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio

Performance
Income and Portfolio Growth
From inception in June 2015 through September 2024

Income Portfolio Value

6k 240k

4.5k 180k

3k 120k

1.5k 60k

0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Dividend Growth Total Return


7.5% per year 9.8% per year

Total Return vs Benchmarks


Data as of Sep 30, 2024. SCHD is the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF.
Returns are annualized in the Last 3 Years and Since Inception periods.

Portfolio SCHD S&P 500

Q3 2024 11.3% 10.8% 5.8%

2024 Year To Date 12.2% 14.1% 22.0%

Last 3 Years 6.2% 8.2% 11.8%

Since Inception 9.8% 12.1% 13.2%

18
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio

About
Dividend Yield Target Dividend Yield Target Dividend Growth
2.49% 2.5% - 3.5% 7% - 9%
Fri, Oct 4 Above Average Above Average

The Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio contains a mix of low- and high-yielding
stocks with a defensive tilt. Over the long run, the portfolio is expected to
generate high‑single‑digit annual returns with less volatility than the broader
stock market.
Due to the higher quality level of its holdings, the portfolio is expected to
underperform in bull markets and outperform in bear markets while growing
its dividend income faster than inflation.

Total return is expected to be composed of:

2.5% – 3.5% dividend yield


7% – 9% earnings growth

Brian Bollinger oversees the portfolio and is a CPA and former partner at a
multi-billion dollar investment firm. Brian is a buy-and-hold investor and
manages the portfolio with very low turnover. Holdings are rarely sold so long
as their dividends appear to remain safe and their long-term outlooks are
favorable.

19
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Top 20 Dividend Stocks Portfolio

20 Holdings
% of Dividend Dividend P/E Entry
Ticker Sub-Sector Portfolio Yield Safety Ratio Date

ADP Automatic Data Pr… Human Resource and … 6.7% 1.97% 97 28.3 Jun '15
ACN Accenture IT Consulting and Oth… 6.4% 1.63% 92 28.3 Jul '15
BR Broadridge Financial … Data Processing and O… 6.2% 1.65% 75 25.1 Jun '15
GD General Dynamics Aerospace and Defense 5.9% 1.90% 97 18.8 Aug '20
CB Chubb Property and Casualty … 5.8% 1.26% 99 12.8 Jun '15
TXN Texas Instruments Semiconductors 5.6% 2.67% 80 35.1 Apr '24
ICE Intercontinental Exc… Financial Exchanges a… 5.5% 1.11% 89 25.6 Apr '24
CMI Cummins Construction Machine… 5.4% 2.21% 98 15.9 Jul '15
AMT American Tower Telecom Tower REITs 5.1% 2.91% 78 21.5 Apr '17
MDT Medtronic Health Care Equipment 4.8% 3.20% 99 15.8 Apr '20
CSCO Cisco Communications Equi… 4.7% 3.04% 91 14.8 Jun '16
APD Air Products and C… Industrial Gases 4.7% 2.48% 95 21.4 Oct '22
EMR Emerson Electric Electrical Components… 4.6% 1.90% 78 19.1 Aug '15
EOG EOG Resources Oil and Gas Exploratio… 4.6% 2.75% 82 12.0 Apr '24
ED Consolidated Edison Multi-Utilities 4.5% 3.22% 90 19.2 Jul '15
PEP PepsiCo Soft Drinks and Non-al… 4.4% 3.23% 93 20.0 Jul '15
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals 4.1% 3.11% 99 16.1 Apr '20
KMB Kimberly-Clark Household Products 3.2% 3.48% 88 19.1 Nov '16
D Dominion Energy Multi-Utilities 3.2% 4.62% 70 19.2 Nov '17
VZ Verizon Integrated Telecomm… 2.0% 6.16% 70 9.5 Jun '15
Cash 2.6%

20
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio

LOW-YIELD, HIGH-GROWTH

Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio


Portfolio Update • Q3 2024

Commentary
Our portfolio jumped 10.4% in the third quarter, slightly outperforming
Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), which gained 9%, and nearly
doubling the S&P 500's 5.8% return. We are less exposed to the tech sector
(17% of our portfolio) than VIG, which helped our relative performance this
quarter.

Parker Hannifin led the way with a 25% gain. The company supplies a wide
range of industrial motion and control technologies including pumps, motors
and valves used in heavy machinery, O-rings and gaskets for car engines and
industrial equipment, and pneumatic and fuel systems for aircraft. Should the
economy continue humming along as rates come down, a cyclical business like
Parker will see nice demand. Parker also has some AI exposure with solutions
used to help cool data centers and construct semiconductor fabs that produce
chips.

Lowe's wasn't far behind with a solid 23% return. The (short-term) thinking here
is that falling rates will encourage more construction activity and real estate
activity – both good news for home improvement retailers that sell everything
from drills and lumber to paint, appliances, and cabinetry. We try not to get
caught up speculating about the near-term view. Lowe's has a great track
record of making its stores more efficient and seems likely to remain a durable
business.

Exponent extended its strong run with another quarter of double-digit gains,
finishing Q3 with a 21% return. The scientific and engineering consulting firm
beat analyst estimates again when it reported results in July. Business activity
will likely increase if lower rates incentivize some of its customers with capital-
intensive businesses to start more projects.

Despite the strong quarter, three of our holdings did record a loss: Toro (-7%),
Elevance (-4%), and Amphenol (-3%).

Toro's recent quarterly results came up short of analyst expectations. After

21
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio

seeing business boom during the pandemic, residential and professional lawn
care dealers have shown increased caution in the face of inflation and tighter
budgets. Reduced shipments of lawn care and and snow

Both residential customers and professional lawn care dealers have shown
increased caution, likely due to macroeconomic factors like inflation and tighter
budgets. This reduced demand led to lower-than-expected shipments of
mowers, snowblowers, irrigation systems, and other products could persist in
the near term but seem unlikely to alter Toro's long-term outlook.

Elevance beat sales and earnings expectations when it posted second-quarter


results in July. However, the company's health benefits segment reported a
slight revenue dip. This was due to a decline in Medicaid memberships as states
resume eligibility checks following the pandemic, leading to fewer enrollees and
reduced premium revenue. We think this has no bearing on Elevance's long-
term outlook. The company's large base of heath insurance clients and growing
array of care providers positions it to be a cost-effective solution for the
complex and inefficient healthcare market.

Amphenol took a breather in the third quarter but is still up around 35% this
year. The company's valuation looked a little stretched, so this is no surprise.
But business is firing on all cylinders, fueled in part by the AI-driven buildout of
data centers. Amphenol specializes in products that are essential for connecting
and transmitting data, power, and signals in a wide range of applications across
various industries. Earnings are expected to grow 15% in the year ahead, and
management hiked the dividend by 50% in July.

Trades
None. As buy-and-hold investors, our portfolios average 1-2 trades per year. We
will always send an email before making any trades.

22
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio

Performance
Income and Portfolio Growth
From inception in June 2015 through September 2024

Income Portfolio Value

4.8k 320k

3.6k 240k

2.4k 160k

1.2k 80k

0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Dividend Growth Total Return


11.5% per year 11.9% per year

Total Return vs Benchmarks


Data as of Sep 30, 2024. VIG is the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF.
Returns are annualized in the Last 3 Years and Since Inception periods.

Portfolio VIG S&P 500

Q3 2024 10.4% 9.0% 5.8%

2024 Year To Date 15.0% 17.3% 22.0%

Last 3 Years 7.4% 10.8% 11.8%

Since Inception 11.9% 12.4% 13.4%

23
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio

About
Dividend Yield Target Dividend Yield Target Dividend Growth
1.61% 1.5% - 2.5% 8% - 10%
Fri, Oct 4 Average Fast

The Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio's objectives are to generate similar


returns to the broader stock market while generating annual dividend growth
of at least 8% to 10% per year.

The portfolio invests primarily in businesses with double-digit dividend growth


potential and is most appropriate for buy-and-hold investors seeking long-term
income growth and capital appreciation.

Total return is expected to be composed of:


1.5% – 2.5% dividend yield
8% – 10% earnings growth
Brian Bollinger oversees the portfolio and is a CPA and former partner at a
multi-billion dollar investment firm. Brian is a buy-and-hold investor and
manages the portfolio with very low turnover. Holdings are rarely sold so long
as their dividends appear to remain safe and their long-term outlooks are
favorable.

24
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024 Long-Term Dividend Growth Portfolio

25 Holdings
% of Dividend Dividend P/E Entry
Ticker Sub-Sector Portfolio Yield Safety Ratio Date

EXPO Exponent Research and Consulti… 7.4% 0.98% 61 56.6 Jul '15
PH Parker-Hannifin Industrial Machinery a… 6.7% 1.04% 94 23.4 Jul '15
ORCL Oracle Systems Software 6.7% 0.94% 90 26.4 Dec '15
APH Amphenol Electronic Components 6.4% 1.06% 87 33.0 Jul '15
BR Broadridge Financial … Data Processing and O… 5.8% 1.65% 75 25.1 Jun '15
LOW Lowe's Home Improvement R… 5.7% 1.73% 93 22.1 Nov '17
ICE Intercontinental Exc… Financial Exchanges a… 4.2% 1.11% 89 25.6 Jan '24
ELV Elevance Health Managed Health Care 4.1% 1.32% 99 12.5 Sep '23
MDLZ Mondelez Packaged Foods and … 4.0% 2.64% 66 20.3 Aug '20
CB Chubb Property and Casualty … 3.9% 1.26% 99 12.8 Jun '15
IEX IDEX Corporation Industrial Machinery a… 3.9% 1.31% 95 25.8 Jul '15
ADI Analog Devices Semiconductors 3.8% 1.62% 63 33.2 Apr '24
TTC Toro Agricultural and Farm … 3.7% 1.69% 84 18.6 Jul '15
AOS A. O. Smith Building Products 3.7% 1.47% 99 20.9 Jul '15
ABT Abbott Laboratories Health Care Equipment 3.6% 1.96% 90 22.7 Dec '15
AWR American States … Water Utilities 3.4% 2.23% 98 26.1 Aug '20
ROK Rockwell Automati… Electrical Components… 3.2% 1.88% 70 26.3 Jul '15
FUL H.B. Fuller Specialty Chemicals 3.0% 1.15% 70 17.5 Jul '15
THO THOR Industries Automobile Manufact… 2.8% 1.76% 65 22.2 Jul '15
AMT American Tower Telecom Tower REITs 2.8% 2.91% 78 21.5 Apr '17
BDX Becton, Dickinson … Health Care Equipment 2.4% 1.60% 91 17.0 Apr '16
MDT Medtronic Health Care Equipment 2.0% 3.20% 99 15.8 Nov '17
FIS Fidelity National Transaction and Paym… 1.9% 1.70% 77 15.9 Jul '15
MSM MSC Industrial Trading Companies an… 1.7% 3.97% 84 18.4 Jun '15
HRL Hormel Foods Packaged Foods and … 1.6% 3.62% 90 19.0 Jun '16
Cash 1.6%

25
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

Income Ideas
Pitches for 8 stocks with interesting valuations and long-term prospects

Ticker Dividend Yield Dividend Safety Score

NUV Nuveen Municipal Value Fund 4.12% 60


EVRG Evergy 4.27% 87
MGA Magna 4.64% 70
WPC W. P. Carey 5.83% 70
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners 4.65% 65
REXR Rexford Industrial Realty 3.42% 81
WTRG Essential Utilities 3.41% 93
NKE Nike 1.79% 99

26
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

NUV • National Municipal Bonds


Nuveen Municipal Value Fund
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

4.12% 6.9% in Sep '24


60
Borderline
2005 '10 '15 '20

The Nuveen Municipal Value Fund's (NUV) 4% dividend yield is more attractive
than it looks if you hold shares in a taxable account since the fund's monthly
payouts are exempt from federal income taxes (note that there may still be
state or local taxes).

NUV's favorable dividend treatment reflects the fund's ownership of tax-


exempt municipal bonds. These low-risk securities are typically issued to
finance public projects such as infrastructure, schools, and utilities – assets that
require extended periods to generate the revenue needed to repay the debt.

NUV is one of the most conservative funds in this space since over 75% of its
portfolio is invested in securities that earn A, AA, or AAA credit ratings. Unlike
most of its peers, NUV also does not use leverage to juice its income and
returns.

However, when interest rates rise, longer-duration bonds like munis lose value
faster than shorter-term bonds. This "duration risk" caused NUV's price to drop
from nearly $12 per share in 2021 (when 10-year Treasuries yielded 1%) to
around $9 today (with Treasury yields at 3.75%).

This fluctuation is normal for NUV, as its price has ranged between $8 and $12
per share for over 30 years, depending on interest rates. While rates have
started to fall, NUV trades at a modest discount to its net asset value and
should see its income increase as older bonds mature and get reinvested at
better yields. The fund’s distribution, which was hiked by 6.9% in September,
could rise further, though gradually, since only 25% of its bonds mature within
the next decade.

Overall, NUV could be an interesting idea for conservative investors looking for
an income investment that holds up well during stock market downturns and

27
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

will likely pay more than money market funds within the next year. As with
most high-quality bond funds, long-term capital appreciation potential is
limited, though.

28
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

EVRG • Electric Utilities


Evergy
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

4.27% 4.9% in Nov '23


87
Very Safe
2005 '10 '15 '20

Evergy formed in 2018 when regional utilities Westar Energy and Kansas City
Power and Light merged. These businesses have provided electricity to
customers in Kansas and Missouri for more than 100 years, generating a
predictable stream of predominantly regulated earnings.

By most accounts, management has done a fine job overseeing the combined
business. Evergy saved more than $1 billion in operating costs in the first five
years following the merger, helping the business offset inflationary pressures to
grow earnings even while keeping customer rates flat.

In 2023, Evergy's Kansas utilities (around 60% of the company's assets) filed a
rate case with the state commission, which decides how much utilities can
charge customers. Regulators approved a much smaller increase than
expected. This led Evergy to reduce its long-term earnings growth target by one
point to 4% to 6%, and S&P downgraded Evergy's credit rating to BBB+.

Investors prefer utilities that operate in states with constructive regulatory


environments, so the disappointing rate case in Kansas has caused Evergy's
stock to trade at a nearly 20% discount to the utility sector's average P/E ratio.

This could provide an opportunity for long-term investors since the Kanas City
area enjoys below-average unemployment rates and has seen demand for
electricity growing two to three times faster than normal thanks in part to
Google building out a massive data center and Panasonic constructing an
electric vehicle battery plant.

Meeting this demand, and shifting away from fossil fuels like coal to cleaner
types of power generation, will require substantial investment. Commissioners
in Kansas and Missouri should incentivize investment to support this growth.
Their stance towards Evergy could soften since more shareholder-friendly

29
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

terms could reduce the utility's cost of issuing equity to make financing these
projects more attractive.

It's also worth noting that the makeup of state commission boards can change
over time. In Kansas, for example, the commission consists of three governor-
appointed officials with staggered terms expiring in March 2026, 2027, and
2028. Leadership changes could also open the door for Evergy to negotiate
better terms in the future.

Even if nothing changes on the regulatory front to brighten Evergy's outlook,


the utility offers an attractive yield north of 4% that seems likely to continue
growing at a mid-single-digit pace each year.

30
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

MGA • Automotive Parts and Equipment


Magna
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

4.64% 3.3% in Feb '24


70
5-Year Average
Safe
2005 '10 '15 '20

Magna, the world's third-largest auto-parts supplier, is an idea that requires a


stomach for volatility and a potentially long holding period. This is a tough
industry characterized by thin margins and cyclical demand trends tied to
vehicle production volumes. But when the tide goes out, opportunities can
arise.

Magna's shares have slumped over 30% this year. Inflation and higher interest
rates have dampened demand for new vehicles, and a slowdown in electric
vehicle (EV) adoption has reduced the near-term returns Magna can earn on its
investments in developing new EV components, such as powertrain
electrification and advanced driver-assistance systems. Increased competition
from Chinese suppliers has weighed on performance, too.

Despite these real challenges, Magna stands out in the group because of its
conservative management. The company prioritizes maintaining an A- credit
rating, does not overly depend on any single vehicle manufacturer (General
Motors is the largest customer at 15% of sales), and has a well-diversified
product portfolio that is mostly agnostic to engine types (seats, mirrors, and
body structures are used in both electric vehicles and cars with internal
combustible engines).

Industry conditions could get worse, especially if the economy tips into
recession. But taking a three- to five-year view, we'd bet that Magna's
profitability will strengthen and EV adoption will increase. Should this play out,
it's not out of the question that Magna could generate enough free cash flow
after dividends to buy back 5% to 10% of its shares outstanding each year at
today's price.

In the meantime, investors get paid a nearly 5% dividend yield to wait for better
times. Magna cut and then suspended its payout during the 2008 financial

31
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

crisis, but we think it would take a similarly severe downturn to jeopardize


Magna's dividend today. Hopefully that's an unlikely scenario since most of its
auto customers are on much stronger financial ground today.

Investors who are comfortable with the firm's cyclical performance and want
exposure to the auto industry may find Magna an interesting option without
betting on a specific car brand or having to worry about a company's ability to
survive a downturn. Just keep in mind that the industry's tough times can
always get worse before they get better.

32
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

WPC • Diversified REITs


W. P. Carey
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

5.83% 0.6% in Sep '24


70
5-Year Average
Safe
2005 '10 '15 '20

Investors aren't over the sting they felt when W.P. Carey unexpectedly cut its
dividend by 20% last December as part of its sudden decision to divest most of
its office properties all at once. Despite owning one of the more impressive
property portfolios in the market, W.P. Carey shares sport a valuation multiple
that is 10% to 20% below other quality net lease REITs.

We think the negative sentiment toward W.P. Carey will fade in the years ahead,
closing this discount as the diversified REIT continues growing its cash flow and
rebased dividend.

On paper, W.P. Carey remains one of the more impressive REITs in the market.
Growing property sectors like industrial buildings and warehouses account for
over 60% of rent, with retail and self-storage properties rounding out the
portfolio. Occupancy has hovered near 99% for more than a decade,
demonstrating the importance of these properties to W.P. Carey's tenants.

The REIT's diversified business further reduces risk. No tenant exceeds 3% of


rent, no more than 6% of leases expire in any year through 2033, and W.P.
Carey's roughly 1,300 properties span the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Mexico.

These strengths pair with a BBB+ credit rating and a payout ratio near 70% to
support the company's dividend, which management has nudged higher in
each of the last three quarters since the late 2023 cut.

W.P. Carey's mature growth profile isn't overly exciting, but the stock's safe
yield near 6% and discounted valuation could appeal to income investors who
are comfortable owning REITs.

33
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

BIP • Multi-Utilities
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

4.65% 5.9% in Feb '24


65
5-Year Average
Safe
2… '10 '15 '20

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) is a master limited partnership (and a K-


1 tax form issuer) that was spun off in 2008 by parent Brookfield Asset
Management. The firm owns a diversified portfolio of infrastructure assets,
including electrical transmission lines, railroads, ports, natural gas pipelines, toll
roads, telecom towers, and data centers.

(Note that Brookfield Infrastructure also offers a corporate version, Brookfield


Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC), for investors who prefer to avoid the tax
complexities associated with MLPs.)

These are durable businesses that deliver predictable results. About 90% of
BIP's cash flows come from regulated sources or long-term contracts,
approximately 85% of contracts are indexed to inflation, and around 70% of
cash flows have no volume risk. Most of the firm's customers also have
investment-grade credit profiles, and only one (a utility company) exceeds 10%
of sales.

The upward swing in interest rates over the last couple of years has made
financing some investments less attractive, but we think BIP's long-term outlook
remains bright. Ultimately, significant infrastructure investment is necessary in
developed and emerging markets to modernize digital networks, secure energy
supplies, and support economic growth.

Furthermore, as large public companies look to release capital for investment in


faster-growing niches, opportunities for infrastructure investors to form joint
ventures and acquire assets should continue to grow. For example, BIP created
a joint venture with Intel to invest in American-based semiconductor
manufacturing facilities, and Pembina Pipeline sold a 50% interest in the Ruby
Pipeline to BIP to release capital to invest in other core areas of its business.

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Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

Increased investment in artificial intelligence is fueling a massive buildout of


power-hungry data centers that should create more opportunities across BIP's
data, electric utility, and natural gas sectors, too.

Overall, BIP's annuity-like cash flow, BBB+ credit rating, and diversified portfolio
of essential, long-life assets should help the firm keep its nearly 5% yield safe
and growing at a mid-single-digit clip, offering investors a nice combination of
current income and growth.

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Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

REXR • Industrial REITs


Rexford Industrial Realty
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

3.42% 9.9% in Feb '24


81
5-Year Average
Very Safe
2015 '20

Rexford Industrial owns and manages industrial properties like warehouses and
distribution centers across Southern California, one of America's most land-
constrained and supply-limited markets.

The region's dense population and proximity to shipping ports make it a crucial
hub for logistics, while the scarcity of developable land creates significant
barriers to entry for new competitors. This dynamic has enabled the REIT to
maintain high occupancy rates of over 95% and a stable cash flow stream.

Despite these strengths, Rexford's stock has struggled, falling over 10% this
year as the economy has softened and fears of a recession have grown.

However, Rexford's unique position near Southern California's shipping ports,


which play a critical role in the American economy, should provide some
protection if the economic headwinds intensify. Despite a softer economy,
industrial real estate demand in the area remains solid, driven by e-commerce
and the ongoing need for logistics hubs close to major urban centers.

Rexford's well-located properties, combined with limited new supply, should


provide continued pricing power, allowing it to grow rents even in a slower
economic environment.

With the stock now trading at one of its lowest valuations in years, investors
may find this a compelling entry point. The company's low leverage (BBB+ credit
rating from S&P) and long-term lease structures add further stability to the
business.

While higher interest rates may cap growth in the near term, rates are coming
down, and Rexford's focus on prime industrial assets and ability to increase
rents should support continued dividend growth.

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Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

WTRG • Water Utilities


Essential Utilities
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

3.41% 6% in Jul '24


93
5-Year Average
Very Safe
2005 '10 '15 '20

Essential Utilities, a water (~55% of revenue) and natural gas (~45%) utility
primarily operating in Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states, has been a
reliable income stock for decades.

Nearly all of the company's revenue is generated through regulated utilities,


whose guaranteed rates of return and essential nature provide a stable and
predictable revenue base even in recessionary periods. These factors have
enabled Essential to achieve 33 consecutive years of annual dividend growth.

While Essential's leverage has been elevated in recent years due to some
notable infrastructure investments, it is expected to decline as key projects
come online. Despite the higher debt levels, the company boasts an A- credit
rating, reflecting its overall financial strength and ability to manage long-term
debt responsibly.

This solid foundation should allow Essential to continue consolidating municipal


water systems, which remain highly fragmented. Recent regulatory reforms in
Pennsylvania have made these transactions more attractive and
accommodative for cost recovery.

Additionally, Essential has secured a key regulatory approval for its natural gas
operations, including a weather normalization adjustment. This mechanism
reduces the risk of earnings volatility caused by unusually warm or cold
weather, providing more stable revenue and protecting the company from
fluctuations in gas demand.

Overall, Essential's regulated business model, favorable regulatory climate, and


expansion opportunities in the water space should provide stable income and
growth opportunities.

37
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

The stock offers an attractive dividend yield of over 3% and is trading at a


favorable valuation, with the potential for a 20% return if Essential's share price
reverts to its historical valuation levels.

38
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

NKE • Footwear
Nike
Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Dividend Growth

1.79% 8.8% in Nov '23


99
5-Year Average
Very Safe
2… '10 '15 '20

We shy away from most turnaround stories given their low success rate,
especially in a dynamic industry like consumer fashion. But after watching Nike
closely for much of this year and continuing to wait for more shoes to drop (no
pun intended) to get interested, we think this iconic brand is finally worth
highlighting.

Nike's steady innovation, classic product lines, and heavy ad spending have
reinforced the company's leadership in sportswear and athletic footwear for
decades. Despite remaining a preferred brand by teens and athletes, Nike's
post-pandemic sales growth slowed when former CEO John Donahoe, who was
appointed in 2020 and came from the consulting industry, doubled down on
the company's shift to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model.

Nike's pivot away from wholesalers is believed to have contributed to recent


growth headwinds, as the reduction in retail partnerships with companies like
Foot Locker limited the brand's accessibility in key channels. This move
underestimated consumers' continued preference for an in-store shopping
experience, particularly when purchasing footwear, a category where trying
before buying remains important.

In September, Nike announced that Donahoe will retire in October and be


replaced by Elliott Hill, a longtime Nike veteran who is expected to reverse
some DTC-focused strategies. This shift back toward a more balanced
distribution strategy could help Nike regain market share and enhance its
presence across multiple channels.

Nike has also faced challenges with its running shoe business, where On
Running and Hoka have gained market share by using unique cushioning
technologies. To combat this competition, the company plans to launch
innovative products to rekindle consumer excitement and demand from

39
Simply Safe Dividends - Q3 2024

runners.

While these are tough calls to make, we think Nike's setback has been more of a
stumble than a long-term fall. Nike's ability to stay relevant through shifting
trends stems from its strategic partnerships with top athletes (Nike's annual
marketing spending is more than Hoka and On's combined revenue) and the
buzz created by limited-edition sneaker drops – a formula that has kept the
brand iconic over time and one we expect to continue driving its appeal.

Earnings remain above pre-pandemic levels, and Nike's over $8 billion in cash
reserves offset the firm's minimal debt load and far exceed the roughly $2.2
billion annual dividend commitment – earning the company a stellar AA- credit
rating from S&P.

Nike's dividend yield of under 2% may not appeal to some income-focused


investors, but the company's payout has potential to grow at a double-digit
pace in the long term while the turnaround story creates the potential for
meaningful capital appreciation if growth trends improve. Investors just have to
be patient and comfortable with the risks of investing in a fashion-oriented
business.

40

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