AZERBAIJAN STATE AGRARIAN UNIVERSITY
Public Legal Entity
Department of finance and accounting
______________________________________________________________________
I confirm:
Department of finance and economic theory
chief_____________________
SYLLABUS
Probability theory and mathematical statistics
(8 credits (ECTS)
INSTRUCTOR INFORMATION
Dr. Niftaliyeva Rafiga Shahin
Office: Department of Finance and accounting, 1st , Room # 114
Office phone: +0519895092
Mob: +994519895092
Office hours: (8 hours)
E-mail:
[email protected]Educational year: 2023-2024
She was born on 28.06.1997 in the city of Ganja. In 2015-2020, she studied at the
bachelor's level of the Qafqaz University in the specialty "World Economy", in 2021-
2023, at the master's level of the Azerbaijan State Agrarian University, in the
specialization "Mater Business Administration".
Since September 16, 2021, she has been working as a academic advisor at the
"Agriculture Economy" faculty of the Azerbaijan State Agrarian University.
The teacher will notify the students in advance by e-mail about the working time or if it is
necessary to reschedule the working time.
This syllabus is the main document covering all the practical aspects, requirements and
deadlines of the course. The document should be read thoroughly by students
immediately after receiving it and the requirements of this document should be followed
during the semester.
Students can contact the teacher through WhatsApp group or students email group. This
e-mail address is required for the transmission of electronic information, where students
can familiarize themselves with subject-related information provided by the teacher.
PREREQUİSİTE
According to the schedule drawn up by the Faculty of Agrarian Economics, classes are
held on the appointed day and time. If the time of the classes changes, the teacher will
provide the relevant information to the students. During distance education, the online
platform defined by ADAU will be used.
This syllabus is the main document covering all the practical aspects, requirements and
deadlines of the course, it should be read thoroughly and followed throughout the
semester.
Teaching the subject requires basic knowledge of probability theory, statistics, variance
analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. Students are recommended to
strengthen their knowledge in a certain direction in order to achieve the planned learning
outcomes.
COURSE SCHEDULE
COURSE DESCRIPTION
It is a long-established fact in the science of mathematical methodology that studies play
an important role in the deeper understanding of mathematical theory and in determining
its practical significance. Indeed, solving problems and examples related to this or that
section of the theory, various kinds of experimental works develop students'
mathematical thinking. Creativity, searching, finding the most effective solution method
and similar qualities are brought up in them. In most cases, different types of studies
clarify parts of the theory that were previously difficult to understand and provide an
understanding of their true nature. Therefore, it is an important condition that it is
organically related to the issue or other section and meets all scientific-methodical
requirements. The studies are related to the theoretical topic and are compiled on the
basis of the knowledge the students have learned at school.
Taking into account the lack of studies related to the study of probability theory elements
included in the program of the mathematics faculty course, we found it necessary to
prepare this resource. The problems and examples here were compiled and the program
materials were taken as the basis, and the work experience of both the author and the
advanced mathematics teachers of our republic was referred to.
The subject will provide students with:
- To introduce the role and importance of probability theory in the modern education
system;
- To study the random concepts of the theory of probability, the regularities of random
processes;
- To characterize the specific features of the subject in the course of economic processes;
- to teach some methodological information for the study of statistical indicators in the
performance of the main economic processes;
- bring to the attention of students the determination of the mathematical model in
accordance with the requirements of the modern era;
- show the determination of correlation and regression analyzes in mathematical and
statistical data;
- to master the practical significance of the indicated issues in practice.
Planned learning outcomes
At the end of the course, students should master the following:
• evolution of views from probability theory. Therefore, each subject of the subject, as a
rule, begins with the illumination of the economic opinion on that problem;
• It is impossible to understand the modern world without understanding the main
methodological provisions of probability theory;
• to the analysis of human-related economic systems, as opposed to the physical world
(nature), which is objectively given to man from the beginning. Man becomes the center,
core of this system. The economy cannot exist without people, without taking into
account their needs and interests. However, human behavior in individual economic
systems has its own specificity;
- economic processes are predicted to be given by random quantities.
105 hours (8 credits) are given for the subject. The subject is designed to be taught over a
15-week semester. There is a two-hour lecture every week, and a four-hour seminar every
two weeks (2 hours every week, and two hours every other week).
CALENDAR OF THE SUBJECT
volume of lesson load (hour)
The name of the Student's time
№ outside the
subject Total Lecture Seminar Laboratory
classroom
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Content of probability
1 theory. The sample
space 8 4 4 8
Special and axiomatic
2
definition of probability 8 4 4 8
Sequentel repeated
3
testing scheme 6 2 4 10
Random quantities.
4 One-dimensional
distribution 8 4 4 13
Basic statistical
5
distributions 6 2 4 10
Random vectors.
6 (Multiple random
variable) 6 2 4 12
Numerical
7 characteristics of
random quantities 8 4 4 8
Law of large numbers
8 and central limit
theorems 8 4 4 12
Subject of
mathematical statistics.
9
Descriptive methods of
experimental data 6 2 4 12
10 Numerical 6 2 4 10
characteristics of
random selection
Distributions related to
normal distribution.
11 Statistical evaluation of
distributions
parameters 8 4 4 8
Testing of statistical
12
hypotheses 6 2 4 8
13 Dispersion analyses 6 2 4 8
14 Correlation analyses 8 4 4 8
15 Reqression analyses 7 3 4 8
Total 105 45 60 135
LECTURE
The lecture is scheduled for 80 minutes. Students can take appropriate notes about the
topic during the lecture. Since students do not have the opportunity to record the lecture
in its entirety, they can record the lecture using electronic devices (mobile phone, laptop,
camera, etc.). The electronic devices are prepared by the course representative before the
lecture. However, it is strictly forbidden to use electronic devices for other purposes
during the lesson. The student is responsible for such action. You can get the electronic
version of the lecture from the lecturer or from the university's website.
During the lecture, slide materials will be used frequently. At the same time, the difficult
topic will be thoroughly discussed, clarified and explained through Microsoft Teams.
During the lecture, students can ask the lecturer to repeat and/or clarify unclear material.
A relevant list of literature for each topic is given at the end of the syllabus. In addition, it
is recommended that students use Internet resources.
Students who do not attend more than 25% of the hours allocated to the subject are not
admitted to the exam (Decision No. 348 of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of
Azerbaijan dated December 24, 2013).
SEMİNAR
The seminar topics and the list of used literature will be presented to the students in
advance. Two hours are allotted for each seminar. At the beginning of the seminar,
students' theoretical knowledge will be confirmed. Each student must answer the
questions and demonstrate an understanding of the topic and its underlying logic. If the
answers are memorized and superficial, it is considered that the student has not mastered
the subject.
Each student is required to prepare a presentation related to the topic. Presentations of 10-
15 minutes should be prepared in advance. It can consist of 10-15 slides. At the end of
the presentation, the results should be summarized. After the presentation, the topic is
discussed by the whole audience. Students are also provided with test questions related to
the topic covered. Students should actively participate in question-and-answer in each
lesson, and should be able to speak the topic freely, clearly, and coherently.
Recommendations for students: Students should not be afraid to actively participate in
the audience, ask questions, express their opinions and make mistakes.
INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENTS
You are welcome to submit your individual work at the designated time. Freelance
work is then taken to have a complete knowledge of the student's work and in the form of
presentation. Otherwise, the job is not accepted and deducted from the overall score.
Delayed individual work is not accepted and is not evaluated. However, while calculating
the next month's earnings, freelance jobs can be re-issued on the above conditions.
Unless you attend the exam, it is written "not come" before the student's name,
regardless of the exam table. Applies to the exam commission, which is created for the
solution of all problems arising from the examination.
The price of the advertised subject (excluding errors in calculating the mechanical or
subject's cost) does not change. If you are dissatisfied with your exam grade, you can
apply to the exam commission for students who are protesting against the cost of exams
at the time of pricing.
If the student fails to attend the classes for reasons that are unacceptable, he or she
may give me a lesson taught in advance.
Students need to be honest and ethical behavior.
EXAM
The exam will consist of five questions and the student must answer at least three of
them. The awarded score cannot be changed (excluding errors in calculation of
mechanical or subject matter). If you disagree with the examination score given, you can
submit a complaint to the Examination Committee convened by the University for this
purpose. If the Examination Committee finds your complaint justified, you may be given
an opportunity to retake the exam. If you do not take the exam, regardless of the reason,
you will be given zero points.
ASSESSMENT
Course grades will be determined by class attendance, individual assignments, seminar
scores, and final exam scores, as noted in the following table:
Type of exercises Maximum evaluation Specific weight (% from
general point)
Midterm exam Up to 20 points 20%
Indicators of subject Up to 30 points 30%
familiarization
Exam score Up to 50 points 50%
Final examination score Up 100 points 100%
ETHİCS AND PLAGİARİSM
The teaching of the lesson is based on general ethical values in education and the
principles of humanism, democracy, equality, secularism and efficiency.
Students are advised to use other people's ideas (ideas) in classroom and out-of-
classroom activities without citing (referring to) their own work, and avoid providing
inaccurate information during the course of teaching the subject. The mentioned cases are
considered plagiarism.
Issues of ethics and plagiarism in the teaching process are regulated by the "Internal
Disciplinary Rules" and "Internal Rules on Anti-Plagiarism and Academic Ethics" of the
University. You can get acquainted with both documents on the official website of the
university.
RECOMMENDED LITERATURE
1. Chetyrkin E.M, Kalikhman I.L., Verontnostv и statistika. M., Statistics and Finance,
1982.
2. Kolemaev V.A., Staroverov O.V., Trundaevskii V.B. Theory of reliability and
mathematical statistics. M., High school. 1991
3. Gataulin A.M. System of applied statistical and mathematical methods of processing
experimental data in the forestry industry. Moscow. Издательвство МСХА. Т 1, Т
2.1992 г.
4. A. Shahbazov. Probability theory, mathematical statistics. Baku. Maarif. 1973
5. A.A. Huseynov, S.Y. Gasimov Probability theory mathematical statistics. Baku.
Chashioglu. 2006
6. Omarov S.Ö., Javadov.N.A. Mathematical and applied statistics. Part I. Mathematical
statistics. Baku Azernashr. 2007.
7. P.F. Kahramanov, X.H. Aliyev "Probability theory, mathematical statistics" Sumgayit
Teaching materials 2006
8. T.Mammadov, Probability theory, mathematical statistics. Ganja, 2020
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
1. http://www.economy.gov.az/
2. http://agro.gov.az/
3. https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org
4. https://www.britannica.com/topic/farm-management
5. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/
6. https://www.researchgate.net/
7. https://www.sci-hub.se/
