Why experts get it wrong
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EverydaySpy <[email protected]> Mon, Sep 2, 2024 at 4:09 PM
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Greetings Everyday Spy,
People who claim to be experts in their field but shy away from making professional predictions are of little
value to our world.
You find them everywhere -- from TV to podcasts, online and on air. Even professionals with impressive degrees
seem to lack the tools to discern the truth and not fall for misinformation.
Whether they talk about the economy, world events, the job market or the future, they always sound the same.
As a haiku, it would go something like:
The worst is coming!
Or maybe things will improve…
I’m not really sure.
At CIA, I served with some of the bravest men and women I’ve ever known.
We came from backgrounds in medicine, business, military operations, and even sales. None of us were
experts in our previous careers, but we all became experts in one important part of espionage…
We specialized in making predictions.
When your predictions are right, bad guys are stopped, lives are saved, and the world goes on spinning without
anyone knowing better.
But when your predictions are wrong, you hang your head in sadness and accept blame, anger and suspicion.
Unlike modern-day pundits babbling on channels from MSNBC to FOX, intelligence professionals carry
accountability both to MAKE predictions and to OWN the results.
You make predictions every day…
You predict the best diet to reach your fitness goals
You predict how much alone time you can steal with your partner when the kids aren’t around
You predict which actions at work will have the most impact on your success
Predictions are a part of everyday life, but most people don’t predict – they make snap decisions on autopilot.
Be more aware of the info you base your predictions on. Even taking a quick moment to assess your data can
help you see things you may have missed, and let you predict with power.
Godspeed, #EverydaySpy
P.S. – Good predictions need good info to base them
on. But separating good info from slants and biases is
harder today than ever. CIA taught me key tools and
tactics to find the facts needed to predict with
confidence.
Andrew Bustamante, Founder of EverydaySpy.com, is a former covert CIA
Intelligence officer, decorated US Air Force Combat Veteran, and respected
Fortune 500 senior advisor. Learn more from Andrew on his Podcast (The
EverydaySpy Podcast) and by following @EverydaySpy on your favorite social
media platform.
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