Year Month Sales of Tractor Industry Level Trend
2003 Apr-03 10,281
May-03 10,281
Jun-03 14,042
Jul-03 10,283
Aug-03 9,522
Sep-03 14,263
Oct-03 20,264
Nov-03 15,778
Dec-03 12,758
2004 Jan-04 14,297
Feb-04 17,521
Mar-04 24,773 14,505 0
Apr-04 15,714 18337.9036 1916.3268
May-04 17,352 22367.9039 2973.16357
Jun-04 20,901 23465.799 2035.52933
Jul-04 12,065 21260.1381 -85.065783
Aug-04 13,452 20833.5256 -255.83915
Sep-04 22,018 21484.8257 197.730443
Oct-04 27,631 20730.603 -278.24609
Nov-04 21,799 20246.4581 -381.1955
Dec-04 16,209 19147.0692 -740.29221
2005 Jan-05 16,249 17446.2299 -1220.5658
Feb-05 18,867 15922.619 -1372.0884
Mar-05 23,857 14259.7191 -1517.4941
Apr-05 16,828 16315.001 268.893897
May-05 19,062 18492.6343 1223.26362
Jun-05 22,724 19953.4577 1342.04347
Jul-05 15,320 22438.5141 1913.54996
Aug-05 16,936 23866.5695 1670.80267
Sep-05 21,986 22040.8019 -77.482468
Oct-05 30,998 21398.7772 -359.75358
Nov-05 22,359 20043.6633 -857.43373
Dec-05 20,860 21543.1332 321.018061
2006 Jan-06 24,057 24679.626 1728.75546
Feb-06 23,506 24772.9391 911.034253
Mar-06 27,985 23734.2961 -63.804344
Apr-06 24,416 27711.9453 1956.92241
May-06 24,262 29164.4507 1704.71392
Jun-06 29,924 30545.8797 1543.07145
Jul-06 21,738 32752.9026 1875.04717
Aug-06 20,417 31832.0238 477.084219
Sep-06 33,280 34603.1619 1624.11115
Oct-06 35,817 32739.9515 -119.54966
Nov-06 26,057 31296.2196 -781.64077
Dec-06 23,742 30068.4865 -1004.6869
2007 Jan-07 26,259 28867.4069 -1102.8833
Feb-07 23,995 27382.5117 -1293.8892
Mar-07 28,421 26496.1731 -1090.1139
Apr-07 22,357 24848.172 -1369.0575
May-07 23,488 24580.0899 -818.56982
Jun-07 29,631 25014.5559 -192.05191
Jul-07 20,594 24976.8952 -114.85631
Aug-07 20,051 25456.9184 182.583489
Sep-07 27,466 23766.2614 -754.03676
Oct-07 34,778 24385.019 -67.639605
Nov-07 25,839 25311.3889 429.365148
Dec-07 23,053 25749.1281 433.552168
2008 Jan-08 23,548 24985.6553 -164.9603
Feb-08 22,619 24913.4055 -118.60506
Mar-08 28,817 25845.8743 406.93188
Apr-08 24,644 27008.0121 784.534856
May-08 27,949 28881.4676 1328.99513
Jun-08 32,737 29018.6773 733.102442
Jul-08 21,654 28117.4623 -84.056289
Aug-08 22,718 28285.1332 41.8072946
Sep-08 28,855 27393.7126 -424.80666
Oct-08 33,205 25508.2328 -1155.1432
Nov-08 20,983 22403.2095 -2130.0833
Dec-08 17,751 19833.5656 -2349.8636
2009 Jan-09 22,114 20568.3286 -807.55027
Feb-09 20,025 21029.5264 -173.17626
Mar-09 31,286 24100.5327 1448.91503
Apr-09 27,039 26668.775 2008.57867
May-09 31,113 28435.6244 1887.71401
Jun-09 39,396 30400.8885 1926.48905
Jul-09 27,219 32081.5055 1803.55305
Aug-09 24,434 30562.43 142.238774
Sep-09 41,338 33494.0289 1536.91884
Oct-09 43,171 33979.5775 1011.23373
Nov-09 27,743 34238.484 635.070077
Dec-09 27,424 37000.7676 1698.67683
2010 Jan-10 35,941 39930.9993 2314.45426
Feb-10 32,140 41447.3646 1915.4098
Mar-10 43,245 39185.3075 -173.32363
Apr-10 38,301 43126.4647 1883.91677
May-10 43,245 45682.5051 2219.97856
Jun-10 38,301 40162.8867 -1649.8199
Jul-10 31,198 38369.3057 -1721.7004
Aug-10 29,763 38635.7346 -727.63578
Sep-10 42,042 35913.1574 -1725.1065
Oct-10 55,946 38703.5907 532.663424
Nov-10 37,044 41883.6835 1856.37807
Dec-10 35,298 43332.9305 1652.81256
2011 Jan-11 42,838 42367.9169 343.899467
Feb-11 41,784 43034.6083 505.29546
Mar-11 45,500 39314.5972 -1607.3578
Apr-11 42,513 41111.3136 94.6792589
May-11 41,874 40019.7703 -498.43202
Jun-11 48,716 45265.9455 2373.8716
Jul-11 38,577 48615.2574 2861.59174
Aug-11 36,407 50267.2478 2256.79111
Sep-11 56,864 53384.0727 2686.80796
Oct-11 67,886 52367.5465 835.140922
Nov-11 39,735 48110.5244 -1710.9406
Dec-11 36,604 43994.2196 -2913.6227
2012 Jan-12 42,277 40330.1939 -3288.8242
Feb-12 36,701 36133.8096 -3742.6043
Mar-12 43,541 35384.7434 -2245.8352
Absolute
Seasonality Forecast Deviation Initial Optimal
0.708778 alpha 0.5 After Forecasting Analysis, Find
0.708778 beta 0.5
0.968063 gamma 0.5
0.708916 Initial Seasonality at t = Sales Value at
0.656452 t/Average Sales Value in a year
0.983299 Initial Level at t = Sales Value at
1.397011 t/Seasonality at t
1.087744
0.879544 Forecast at t + 1 = (Level at t + Trend at
0.985643 t)*Seasonality at t+1-m
1.207907
Level at time, t = alpha * (Sales Value at
1.707864 t/Seasonality at t-m) + (1-alpha)*(Level at t - 1 +
0.846148 Trend at t - 1)
0.934349
Trend at time, t = beta * (Level at time, t -
1.125451 Level at time, t-1) + (1-beta)*Trend at
0.649661 time, t-1
0.724347
1.185598 Seasonality at time, t = gamma*(Sales
value at t/Level at time, t) + (1-
1.487840
gamma)*Seasonality at t-m
1.173805
0.872802
0.874956
1.015927
1.284622
0.768926
0.846545
0.990120
0.650510
0.703159
0.901965
1.224403
0.869377
0.801488
0.915873
0.888687
1.056397
0.920409
0.914604
1.128044
0.819457
0.769659
1.254555
1.350192
0.982270
0.895001
0.989885
0.904539
1.071385
0.887649
0.932554
1.176452
0.817652
0.796093
1.090494
1.380805
1.025897
0.915283
0.934936
0.898052
1.144133
0.973042
1.103537
1.292586
0.854985
0.896996
1.139309
1.311064
0.828492
0.700880
0.873148
0.790666
1.235295
0.810759
0.932917
1.181281
0.816156
0.732648
1.239511
1.294473
0.831868
0.822303
1.077683
0.963711
1.296692
0.955018
1.078294
0.955018
0.777908
0.742127
1.048298
1.394988
0.923675
0.880140
1.068146
1.041865
1.134522
0.959490
0.945068
1.099487
0.870657
0.821682
1.283382
1.532142
0.896792
0.826128
0.954164
0.828317
0.982691
After Forecasting Analysis, Find the optimal value of alpha, beta and gamma
ales Value at
in a year
s Value at
tt
t t + Trend at
+1-m
les Value at
(Level at t - 1 +
vel at time, t -
a)*Trend at
mma*(Sales
, t) + (1-
at t-m
