Ch 4: 1

Chapter 4
Discrete Probability
Distributions

Fall 2023
Discrete Probability Distributions Ch 4: 2

• Discrete probability distributions describe the behavior of

random variables regardless of graphical, tabular, or formulaic
representation.
• Many statistical experiments exhibit similar behaviors,
allowing their associated discrete random variables to be
described by a single formula.
• Only a handful of important probability distributions are
needed to describe many discrete random variables in
practice.
• The key is to apply the correct distribution based on the
characteristics of the problem being studied.

Fall 2023
Discrete Probability Distributions Ch 4: 3

Certain probability distributions occur over and over in

the real world.
• Probability tables are published, mean and standard deviation
is calculated, to make applying them easier.
Some common discrete distribution models:
Uniform: All outcomes are equally likely.
Example:
Dice Roll When rolling a fair six-sided die, each outcome (1
through 6) has an equal probability of occurring, representing a
uniform distribution.

Fall 2023
 Ch 4: 4

Binomial: Number of successes in n independent

trials, with each trial having probability of success p
and probability of failure q (= 1-p).
Example: Quality Control In manufacturing, when inspecting a
sample of products for defects, each product either passes or
fails. The number of defective products in the sample follows a
binomial distribution.
Multinomial: # of outcomes in n trials, with each of k
possible outcomes having probabilities p1, p2, …, pk.
Example: Voting Preferences, Suppose in an election, there are
three candidates: Candidate A, Candidate B, and Candidate C. A
pollster surveys a group of voters to determine their voting
preferences.

Fall 2023
Discrete Probability Distributions Ch 4: 5

Common discrete distribution models, continued:

Hypergeometric: A sample of size n is selected from N
items without replacement, and k items are classified as
successes (N - k are failures).
Example: Election Polling When conducting a poll to predict
election outcomes by randomly selecting voters without
replacement, the number of voters supporting a particular
candidate in the sample follows a hypergeometric distribution.
Negative Binomial: In n independent trials, with
probability of success p and probability of failure q
(q = 1-p) on each trial, the probability that the kth
success occurs on the xth trial.
Example: Customer Service Calls In a call center, the number of
calls received before a certain number of customer complaints is
reached follows a negative binomial distribution.
Fall 2023
Discrete Probability Distributions Ch 4: 6

Common discrete distribution models, continued:

Geometric: Special case of the negative binomial. The
probability that the 1st success occurs on the xth trial.
Example: Coin Flips,The number of consecutive coin flips
needed to get the first 'heads' represents a geometric
distribution.
Poisson: If  is the rate of occurrence of an event
(number of outcomes per unit time), the probability
that x outcomes occur in a time interval of length t.
Example: Customer Arrivals In a retail store, the number of
customers arriving at the checkout counter per hour follows a
Poisson distribution.

Fall 2023
Discrete Uniform Distribution Ch 4: 7

When X assumes the values x1, x2, …, xk and each

outcome is equally likely. Then
1
f ( x; k ) = , x = x , x ,..., x ,
1 2 k
k
k
and x
= i =1 i

k
− )
k

 (x
2

 =2 i =1 i

k
Since all observations are equally likely, this is similar
to the mean and variance of a sample of size k.

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 8

Binomial: Number of successes in n independent

trials, with each trial having probability of success p
and probability of failure q (= 1-p).
• Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
• Experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Two possible outcomes, called success or failure.
• P(success) = p, constant from trial to trial.
• Each trial is independent.
The name binomial comes from the binomial
expansion of (p + q)n, which equals

n
(q + p) =  qn +  qn−1 p +  qn−2 p2 + ...+  n
 n  n  n  n
 p
0 1   2  n

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 9

Binomial: If x is the number of successes in n trials,

each with two outcomes where p is the probability of
success and q = 1-p is the probability of failure, the
probability distribution of X is

the number of ways a given outcome x can occur times

the probability of that outcome occurring, and

 = np

 = npq
2

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 10

Note that when n = 3 and p = 1/4, the probability

distribution of X, the number of defectives, may be
written as

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 11

Example:
The probability that a certain kind of component will
survive a shock test is 3/4. Find the probability that
exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.
Solution
Assuming that the tests are independent and p = 3/4 for
each of the 4 tests, we obtain

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 12

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 13

Example:
The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood
disease is 0.4. If 15 people are known to have contracted
this disease, what is the probability that

• (a) at least 10 survive,

• (b) from 3 to 8 survive, and
• (c) exactly 5 survive?
• (d) find mean and variance

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 14

Solution
Let X be the number of people who survive.

d) mean=np =(15)(0.4)= 6, variance = npq= (15)(0.4)(0.6)= 3.6

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Table Ch 4: 15

෍ 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛; 𝑝) Ex: Find b(3;5;0.25)

𝑥=0

Fall 2023
 Ch 4: 16

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 17

Example:
A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device
from a manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates that the defective
rate of the device is 3%.

(a) The inspector randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is

the probability that there will be at least one defective item
among these 20?
(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and
the inspector randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is
the probability that there will be exactly 3 shipments each
containing at least one defective device among the 20 that are
selected and tested from the shipment?

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 18

Solution

Denote by X the number of defective devices among the 20.

a)

b) testing of each shipment can be viewed as a bionomial

trial with p = 0.4562 from part (a).
Assuming independence from shipment to shipment and
denoting by Y the number of shipments containing at least
one defective item.

Fall 2023
Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 19

Areas of Application
quality control (defect, non-defect)
medical applications. “cure” or “no cure”
military applications. “hit” or “miss” of firing a guided
missile

Fall 2023
Multinomial Distribution Ch 4: 20

Multinomial: Number of outcomes in n trials, with

each of k possible outcomes for each trial having
probabilities p1, p2, …, pk.
• Generalization of binomial to k outcomes.
• Experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• P(outcome i) = pi, constant from trial to trial.
• Repeated trials are independent.

As with the binomial, the name multinomial comes

from the multinomial expansion of (p1 + p2 + … + pk)n.

Fall 2023
Multinomial Distribution Ch 4: 21

Multinomial: The distribution of the number, xi, of

each of k types of outcomes in n trials, with the k
outcomes having probabilities p1, p2, …, pk, is

What about  and 2?

•  and  only apply to distributions of a single random variable

Fall 2023
Multinomial Distribution Ch 4: 22

Example:
The complexity of arrivals and departures of planes at an airport is such
that computer simulation is often used to model the “ideal” conditions. For
a certain airport with three runways, it is known that in the ideal setting the
following are the probabilities that the individual runways are accessed by
a randomly arriving commercial jet:
Runway 1: p1 = 2/9,
Runway 2: p2 = 1/6,
Runway 3: p3 = 11/18.
What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving airplanes are distributed
in the following fashion?
Runway 1: 2 airplanes,
Runway 2: 1 airplane,
Runway 3: 3 airplanes

Fall 2023
Hypergeometric Distribution Ch 4: 23

Hypergeometric: The distribution of the number of

successes, x, in a sample of size n is selected from N
items without replacement, where k items are classified
as successes (and N - k as failures), is
 k  N − k 
  
 x  n − x 
h( x; N , n, k ) = , max{0, n − ( N − k )}  x  min{k , n}
N
 
n 
then nk
=
N
and
N −n k k
2
 =  n  (1 − )
N −1 N N
Fall 2023
Hypergeometric Distribution Ch 4: 24

Example:
Lots of 40 components each are deemed unacceptable if
they contain 3 or more defectives. The procedure for
sampling a lot is to select 5 components at random and
to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the
probability that exactly 1 defective is found in the
sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot? Find
mean and variance.

Fall 2023
Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric Ch 4: 25

If n is small compared with N, then the hypergeometric

distribution can be approximated using the binomial
distribution.
The rule of thumb is that this is valid if (n/N)  0.05. In
this case, we can use the binomial distribution with
parameters n and p = k/N.
Then

nk k k
 = np =  = npq = n 
2
(1 − )
N N N

Fall 2023
Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric Ch 4: 26

Example:
A manufacturer of automobile tires reports that among a
shipment of 5000 sent to a local distributor, 1000 are
slightly blemished. If one purchases 10 of these tires at
random from the distributor, what is the probability that
exactly 3 are blemished?

N=5000, n=10 n/N= 0.0002< 0.05

Using binomial approximation where p=k/N =1000/5000

On the other hand, the exact probability is h(3; 5000, 10, 1000) =
0.2015.

Fall 2023
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution Ch 4: 27

Fall 2023
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution Ch 4: 28

Example:
A group of 10 individuals is used for a biological case
study. The group contains 3 people with blood type O, 4
with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is
the probability that a random sample of 5 will contain 1
person with blood type O, 2 people with blood type A, and
2 people with blood type B?
Solution:
Using the extension of the hypergeometric distribution with x1= 1,
x2= 2, x3 = 2, a1= 3, a2= 4, a3 = 3, N = 10, and n = 5, we find that the
desired probability is

Fall 2023
Negative Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 29

Negative Binomial: In n independent trials, with

probability of success p and probability of failure q
(q = 1-p) on each trial, the probability that the kth
success occurs on the xth trial.

𝑥 − 1 𝑘 𝑥−𝑘
𝑏 ∗ (𝑥; 𝑘, 𝑝) = 𝑝 𝑞 , 𝑥 = 𝑘, 𝑘 + 1, 𝑘 + 2, . . .
𝑘−1

Again we have the number of ways an outcome x can

occur times the probability of that outcome occurring.
The above formula comes from the fact that in order to
get the kth success on the xth trial, we must have
k - 1 successes in the first x - 1 trials, and then the final
trial must also be a success.

Fall 2023
Negative Binomial Distribution Ch 4: 30

Example:
In an NBA (National Basketball Association) championship series, the
team that wins four games out of seven is the winner. Suppose that
teams A and B face each other in the championship games and that
team A has probability 0.55 of winning a game over team B.
(a) What is the probability that team A will win the series in 6 games?
(b) What is the probability that team A will win the series?

Fall 2023
Geometric Distribution Ch 4: 31

Geometric: Special case of the negative binomial with

k = 1. The probability that the 1st success occurs on the
xth trial is

then
1
=
p

and
1− p
 =2

p 2

Fall 2023
Geometric Distribution Ch 4: 32

Example:
For a certain manufacturing process, it is known that, on
the average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is the
probability that the fifth item inspected is the first
defective item found?

Solution:
Using the geometric distribution with x = 5 and p = 0.01,
we have

Fall 2023
Geometric Distribution Ch 4: 33

Example:
At a “busy time,” a telephone exchange is very near
capacity, so callers have difficulty placing their calls. It
may be of interest to know the number of attempts
necessary in order to make a connection. Suppose that we
let p = 0.05 be the probability of a connection during a
busy time. We are interested in knowing the probability
that 5 attempts are necessary for a successful call.
Solution:
Using the geometric distribution with x = 5 and p = 0.05
yields

Fall 2023
Poisson Distribution Ch 4: 34

Poisson distribution: If  is the average # of outcomes

per unit time (arrival rate), the Poisson distribution
gives the probability that x outcomes occur in a given
time interval of length t.
A Poisson process has the following properties:
• Memoryless: the number of occurrences in one time interval is
independent of the number in any other disjoint time interval.
• The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very
short time interval is proportional to the size of the time
interval and independent of other intervals.
• The probability that more than one outcome will occur in a
very short time interval is negligible.
Note that the rate could be per unit length, area, or
volume, rather than time.

Fall 2023
Poisson Distribution Ch 4: 35

Poisson distribution: If  is the rate of occurrence of an

event (average # of outcomes per unit time), the
probability that x outcomes occur in a time interval of
length t is

then
 =  = t
2

Fall 2023
Poisson Distribution Ch 4: 36

Example:
During a laboratory experiment, the average number of
radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1
millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles
enter the counter in a one millisecond?

Solution:
Using the Poisson distribution with x = 6 and λt = 4 and referring
to Table A.2, we have

Fall 2023
Poisson Distribution Ch 4: 37

Example:
Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day
at a certain port. The facilities at the port can handle at
most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a
given day tankers have to be turned away?

Solution:
Let X be the number of tankers arriving each
day. Then, using Table A.2, we have

Fall 2023