Research Article

Volume 5:4, 2021 Journal of Environmental Hazards

ISSN: 2684-4923 Open Access

Downscaling Future Temperature and Precipitation Values

in Kombolcha Town, South Wollo in Ethiopia
Kasye Shitu1* and Mengesha Tesfaw2
1
Department of Soil Resource and Watershed Management, Assosa University, Assosa, Ethiopia
2
Departments of Soil Resource and Watershed Management, Wolidia University, Wolidia, Ethiopia

Abstract
Whilst climate change is already manifesting in Ethiopia through changes in temperature and rainfall, its magnitude is poorly studied at regional levels. Therefore, the main
aim of this study was statistically downscale of future daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and precipitation value in Kombolcha Town, South Wollo,
in Ethiopia. For this the long term historical climatic data were collected from Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for Kombolcha station and the GCM data were
downloaded from the global circulation models of, the Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model from the link (http://climate scenarios.canada.ca/?page=dstsdi).
For future climate data generation among the different downscaling techniques, the statistical down scaling method, a type of regression model was used and the variations
of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation in the town for annually and seasonally condition were analysis based on the base of the 2020s, 2050s and
2080s. In the future, relative to the observed mean value of annual rainfall in Kombolcha town, mean value of annual rainfall will decrease 1.36% - 7.03% for RCP4.5and
5.37% -13.8% for RCP8.5 emission scenarios in the last 21 century. Both maximum and minimum temperature of the town will be increased in the future time interval for
both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The rise in temperature will exacerbate the town maximum heat effects in warm seasons and decrease in precipitation is
expected along with a possible risk of water supply scarcity due to a low level of water supply access and a high rate of urbanization.
Keywords: Downscaling • Kombolcha • Precipitation and temperature • Emission scenarios.

Introduction significantly increasing trends in the frequency of hot days, are much larger
increasing trends in the frequency of hot nights. The average number of ‘hot’
days per year increased by 73 (an additional 20% of days) between 1960
Global climate has changed over the last century mainly, due to
and 2003 [12]. In the country related with precipitation, consistent models’
anthropogenic factors [1]. Climate change is described as the most universal
ensemble of different model, indicating increases in total precipitation occurring
and irreversible environmental problem facing the planet Earth [2] and
in ‘heavy’ events, and increases in the magnitude of one-day maxima and five-
becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its
day maxima rainfall [13].
global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers
[3]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Whilst climate change is already manifesting in Ethiopia through changes
Assessment Report observed an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in mean annual in temperature and rainfall, its magnitude is poorly studied at regional levels
global temperature [1]. According to [4] most scholars have agreed that the [2]. This is because of that, the results of the temperature and precipitation
global annual average temperature is likely to be 2°C above pre-industrial data that obtained from meteorological observation of some regions are
levels by 2050. This may makes the world more intense rainfall, frequent and missing and limits the downscaling of future weather values from general
intense droughts, floods, heat waves, and other extreme weather events. circulation models. Now a time we can determine the consequences of climate
Africa is considered as the most vulnerable continent to climate change in change earlier and our self for necessary adaptation measures by simulate
the world [5]. According to AR4, it is very likely that all of Africa will warm up changes in climatic elements of the present and future from global general
during this century and that, throughout Africa and in all seasons, the warming circulation models (GCMs) [12]. However, due to, coarse resolution of the
will be larger than the global annual mean warming [6]. According to future GCM output it is difficult to apply the raw data of GCMs at a local scale, such as
projections, precipitation and temperature will increase over Eastern Africa in the watershed scale or points of emphasis of this study urban climate change
the coming century [7]. It is predicted that the temperature in Africa continent without downscaling [14]. Therefore, in order to use the results of general
will rise by 2 to 6°C over the next 100 years [8]. circulation model to study the impact of climate change on a local scale, it is
common to downscale and bring the results into the finest resolution. This can
Regionally, in East Africa, studies indicate that in countries like Burundi, be done through the development of tools for downscaling GCM predictions of
Kenya, Sudan, and Tanzania people are badly hit by the impacts of climate climate change to regional and local or station scales [15].
chang [9,10]. Temperature projections in the region indicates that, the median
near-surface temperature in the 2080 to 2099 period will increase by 3°C to The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is a freely available tool that
4°C when it compared to the 1980 to 1999 period. It has to be underlined produces high resolution climate change scenarios result from GCMS for local
that this increase is about 1.5 times the projected global mean response [6]. scale climate change study [16]. The SDSM provides reasonably good results
Because of significant dependence on the agricultural sector for production, after calibration with NCEP predictor variables [1] and establish a relationship
employment, and export revenues, Ethiopia is seriously threatened by climate between past local climate and past GCM outputs and extend this relationship
change, which contributes to frequent drought, flooding, and rising average into the future, to generate future local climate series from future GCM output
temperatures [11]. In the country, the daily temperature observations show [17]. The projection of future climate value is critical information that is needed
to assess the impact of potential climate change on human beings and on the
*Address for Correspondence: Kasye Shitu, Department of Soil Resource and natural environment [18]. It is also helpful for long-term planning development
Watershed Management, Assosa University, Assosa, Ethiopia; Tel: 910134821; at both regional and national levels for mitigation and adaptation strategies of
E-mail: [email protected] future climate change as, it gives opens space for a set of potential responses
[19].
Copyright: © 2021 Kasye Shitu, et al. This is an open-access article distributed
under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits In Ethiopia, studies like, statistical downscaling for daily temperature and
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the rainfall in South Wollo [20], the study of future changes in climate parameters in
original author and source are credited. Amhara Regional State [2], future climate studies in northwestern Ethiopia for
Received 11 May 2021; Accepted 29 June 2021; Published 07 July 2021 assessing the hydrological response of the Gilgel Abay River to climate change
Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

in the Lake Tana Basin [12], climate change impact on the Geba Catchment
in Northern Ethiopia [21], GIS based quantification and mapping of climate
Materials and Methods
change vulnerability hotspots in Addis Ababa [14], Impacts of Climate Change
Description of the study area
Under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios on the Hydrology of Lake Ziway Catchment [22],
Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin [23], The study was conducted in Kombolcha town, which is found to the North
Impact of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration and Runoff in Awash basin East of Ethiopia in Amhara regional state of South Wollo Zone. The town is
[24] and Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Awash Basin [25] located in a range of altitudes and longitude between11º1'30"- 11º15'0" N
were conducted by using downscaling applications in different time intervals latitude and 39º40'30" - 39 º 49’30” E longitudes. It is one of the industrial
throughout all direction of the country to detect climate change impacts in towns in Amhara regional state of Ethiopia. Based on the 2007 national
agricultural and hydrological applications. But, applications of statistical census conducted by the central statistical agency of Ethiopia (CSA),
downscaling of general circulation models for future time temperature and Kombolcha has a total population of 85,367 of whom 41,968 are men and
precipitation value estimation for industrial town of Kombolicha, South Wollo in 43,399 women; 58,667 or 68.72% are urban inhabitants living in town of
Ethiopia has not been undertaken. Kombolcha, the rest of the population is living at rural Kebles around the
town (Figure 1).
It is important to some large cities of East and North African [26,27] and
Addis Ababa city in Ethiopia [14,18] use of downscaled results from GCMs to The town is a plain land with altitudes difference of 1,500 m - 1,840 m
assess future projections and to identify adaptation measures were explored above sea level and surrounded by hills. It is crossed by Borkena River and
recently. Only a few studies are available for Kombolcha town, which differ numerous small streams. The Borkena valley and the gullies formed by the
in method and temporal scale from these studies [28] and [29]. So, in order streams from the surrounding hills have made the configuration of the town
to fill the above listed limitation by establish a relationship between past undulating. The average annual maximum temperature for Kombolcha
local climate and past GCM outputs and extend this relationship into the over the last 30 years (1976-2005) was 26.3ºC and the average annual
future time interval required scientific evidence on statistically downscaling minimum temperature was 12.69ºC. Also in the last 30 years the average
of future temperature and precipitation values since, it is vital for policymakers, annual rain fall for the town was 1021.6 mm. The monthly rainfall
researcher, planner to formulate the adaptation and mitigation options of future distribution of town indicates that July and August are the wettest months
temporal and spatial variation in the study area. Therefore, the main aim of of the year in the past time (1976-2005) (Figure 2); they get more than 250
this study was statistically downscale of future daily maximum temperature, mm of average monthly rainfall. Also, as shown in Figure 2, there is high
daily minimum temperature, and precipitation value in Kombolcha Town, South variation between the daily maximum and minimum temperature of the
Wollo, in Ethiopia. town in the time interval of 1976-2005.

Figure 1. Map of the study area (Source: Arc GIS 10.7).

350 35
Prrecipitation (mm/day)

Temperature(℃/day)

300 30
250 25
200 20
150 15
100 10
50 5
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JUN Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De
Rainfall Tmax Tmin

Figure 2. Observed monthly mean rainfalls, Tmax and Tmin of the study area (1976-2005).

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Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

Materials, Software and Models to be Downscaling Method

used Climate scenarios data from a global climate model (GCM) are usually
at a large scale, for this mater, downscaling is mandatory for impact and
adaptation studies as they require detailed local data. Among the different
Different materials, softwares and models were used in
downscaling techniques, the SDSM a type of regression model was used in
this research. this study. Because a number of studies indicate that the SDSM yields reliable
Software like: Arc GISversion 10.7.1 to locate the study area, PCP estimates of extreme temperatures, seasonal precipitation, totals and inter site
INSTAT to covert the long term daily data in to monthly and annual base precipitation behaviors for a given study area [14,21] in addition to this SDSM
time interval XLSTAT for homogeneity and outlier data test for the observed is widely applied in many regions of the world over a range of different
meteorological data, Mendeley Desktop application for reference citation from climatic condition and permits the spatial downscaling of daily predictor–
different sources. predictand relationships using multiple linear regression techniques (Yihun
et al., 2013).
Models like: Climate model (canESM2) to generate the base time and
future time climate scenario data for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario. SDSM used SDSM4.2.9a decision support tool which was downloaded
from https://www.sdsm.org.uk/for the assessment of regional climate change
Data description impacts. This decision support tool was developed by [16] and used to
Historical meteorological variables such as rainfall, maximum and downscale large predictors. The SDSM software reduces the task of statistically
minimum temperature were required as predicant to downscale the respective downscaling daily weather series into, quality control, data transformation,
global GCM data statistically to the local climate variables. So, the long screening of predictor variables, model calibration, weather generation (using
term (1976-2005) historical climatic data were collected from the Ethiopian observed predictors), statistical analyses, graphing model output, and scenario
National Meteorological Agency (NMA) only for Kombolcha station. Because, generation (using climate model predictors).
in the town there is no other meteorological stations with temperature and Selection of predictors
precipitation records. From the 30 years data of the station (1976-2005), 20
years data (1976–1995) were used for model calibration and the remaining 10 Selecting a predictor is an important step in the downscaling process. It is
years data (1996–2005) were used for model validation. an iterative procedure consisting of a rough screening of the possible settings
and predictors, which is repeated until an objective function is optimized [32].
The GCM Data which were required to project and quantify the future In this, screen variable operation was done after a quality control check and
value of rainfall and temperatures in the study area and to calculate the transformation of rainfall data by fourth root. Identifying the best predictors
relative change of these climate variables variables between the current and was conducted on the relationships which were drawn between a suite of
the future time horizon was downloaded from the global circulation models of, global scale predictors and local scale predictand, based on linear correlation
the Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (canEMS2) from the analysis and scatter plots; and finally the predictors with the highest correlation
link (http://climate scenarios.canada.ca/?page=dstsdi) which is freely available were selected.
for the African window. From this GCM (CanEMS2) future scenario weather
data for the ground stations were generated by using statistical downscaling From Canadian climate change scenario group website (http://climate
method (SDSM) for the two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from scenarios.canada.ca/?page=dstsdi) for the African window, the National
2006 -2100 based on the means of the 20 ensembles of SDSM. The base Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP 1961–2005) reanalysis data
time scenario for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios also generate and canESM2 predictor variables for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 are obtained on
for the evaluation of the model performance by comparing the mean value of a grid by grid-box basis from a resolution of 2.8° latitude and 2.8° longitude.
observed and base time weather parameter in monthly and annual base. So, the required predictor data that represent the town were down loaded
from Kombolcha station and the determination of empirical relationships
Data preparation between gridded predictors (such as mean sea-level pressure) and single-site
The climate data that were collected from their respective source for model predictands (such as station precipitation) was performed for all parameters
input were first captured with Microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheet following the (rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature). The predictor data
day of the year entry formula; second the data were checked for the missing files downloaded from the grid of interest (station of the study area) consists of
value, outlier, consistency, homogeneity and finally, by using INSTAT plus the following three directories [16].
software, the daily data were summarized into annual, monthly and seasonal (a) NCEP_1961-2005: This directory contains 45 years of daily observed
time scale based on the objective this study. predictor data, derived from the NCEP reanalysis, normalized over the
Statistical check about the outlier value determination of meteorological complete 1961-1990 period.
data was conducted using Grubbs outlier data test in statistical software of (b) RCP4. _2006-2100: This directory contains 95 years of daily GCM
XLSTAT. The data in the time interval were tested and the presence of outlier predictor data, derived from the canESM2 experiment, normalized over the
in the data set was determined when p-value of the test was greater than 1961-1990 period.
significant level of 0.05. In addition to this, Z-score was also used to dictate the
outlier data by displayed the Z-score value in bold weather it is maximum or (c) RCP8.5_2006-2100: This directory contains 95 years of daily GCM
minimum. After this data was arranged in normal data level by optimized this predictor data, derived from the canESM2 experiment, normalized over the
outlier data sets, because most statisticians would agree that outliers should 1961-1990 period.
not be removed automatically rather than they should be carefully studied [30].
Large-scale predictor variable information from National Center for
Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) from XLSTA statistical Environmental Prediction (NCEP_1961-2005) reanalysis data set is used
software was used for homogeneity test of meteorological data. Because, for the calibration and validation of SDSM with the observed precipitation,
SNHT is one of the most popular homogeneity tests in climate studies and maximum and minimum temperature data of this study; and also RCP 4.5
the test supposes that tested values are independent and identically normally and RCP8.5 _1961-2100 data were used for the baseline and future time
distributed (null hypothesis) and alternative hypothesis assumes that the climate scenario generation of the station by using linear correlation and
series has a jump-like shift or break [30] and results was determined by the scatter plot partial correlation analysis for appropriate downscaling predictor
compaction of the significance level of alpha value (0.05 or 0.01) with the variables selection through the screen variable option of SDSM. This statistic
computed p-value with the null hypothesis (Ho) and alternative hypothesis identifies the amount of explanatory power of the predictor to explain the
(Ha);When the computed p-value greater than the alpha valve the data is predictand [16]. For this, first, all the predictors Table 1 from historical records
homogenous [31]. were correlated with the past observed (1976-2005) maximum temperature,

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Table 1. Twenty-six Predictor variables derived from African window for the study area.

Predictor Variable Description Predictor Variable Description

Ncepmslpgl.dat Mean sea level pressure Ncepp5zhgl.dat 500hpa divergence
Ncepp1_fgl.dat Surface air flow strength Ncepp_fgl.dat 850 hpa air flow strength
Ncepp1_ugl.dat Surface zonal velocity Ncepp_ugl.dat 850 hpa zonal velocity
Ncepp1_vgl.dat Surface Meridians velocity Ncepp_vgl.dat 850 hpa meridians velocity
Ncepp1_zgl.dat Surface velocity Ncepp_zgl.dat 850 hpa vortices
Ncepp1thgl.dat Surface wind direction Ncepp850gl.dat 850 hpa geo potential height
Ncepp1zhgl.dat Surface divergence Ncepp8thgl.dat 850 hpa wind direction
Ncepp5_fgl.dat 500hpa air flow strength Ncepp8zhgl.dat 850 hpa divergence
Ncepp5_ugl. Dat 500 hpa zonal velocity Ncepprcpgl.dat Relative humidity at 500 hpa
Ncepp5_vgl.dat 500 hpa meridians velocity Nceps500gl.dat Specific humidity at 500hpa
Ncepp5_zgl. Dat 500 hpa vortices Nceps850gl.dat Specific humidity at 850 hpa
Ncepp500gl. Dat 500hpa geo potential height Ncepshumgl.dat Surface specific humidity
Ncepp5thgl.dat 500hpa wind direction Nceptempgl.dat Mean temperature at 2m

minimum temperature, and precipitation. Then, the predictors with the highest
correlation(r) and zero p-values were selected for each weather parameters.
Results and Discussion
Finally, for the selection of the best predictor variables for each predictand
(rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature) scatter plot was carried out in
Input data quality control
screen variable option of SDSM software. The meteorological data sets (rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperature) in the study area contend a total of 0.3-0.5% missing data from
Calibration and weather Generation of SDSM the whole observed data of rainfall and temperature, which were used in this
The SDSM was calibrated for each parameters for the first 20 years (1976- study. Since the missing data are too small, the values were filled by averaging
1995) of observed data and predictor variables of NCEP reanalysis data sets of previous and following days of records [33,34].
and the last 10 years (1996-2005) of observed data from Kombolcha station Homogeneity of meteorological data was tested by Standard Normal
were used for evaluation (weather generation) of the calibration data. Similar Homogeneity Test (SNHT) XLSTA of statistical software. Since p-values of
to calibration of the model, weather generation was carried out from predictors the test were greater than the alpha value for both significance levels (0.01
of NCEP reanalysis datasets using independent observed data in a time series and 0.05), the data were considered as homogeneous in the time series of
(observed data which was not used for calibration). observed data. The homogeneity test result for Kombolacha meteorological
station indicated in Table 2.
Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) can be simulated on monthly,
seasonal and annual basis, but, for this study, the model was simulated Selection of downscaling predictor variables
at monthly level by the process of conditional for rainfall parameter and
unconditional for temperature parameter in order to see the monthly variation The number of selected predictors for all weather parameters (rainfall,
of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature values. According maximum and minimum temperature) varies from four to five in the study
area (Table 2). The correlation (R) statistics and p-values were used to
to [1], during calibration and validation of SDSM, direct link are established
explain the strength of the relationship between the predictor and predicted.
between predictors and predictands under unconditional model process and in
So, in this study, Predictor variables which have a high correlation
conditional models there is an intermediate process between regional forcing
value(R) and zero p-values were selected. Even there were common
and local weather. As a result, in conditional process the observed data were predictors for all weather parameter; in most cases the valve of correlation
transformed by the fourth root before calibration and validations were done, (R) was different from parameter to parameter. The results also show
but for unconditional process the observed data were used directly for model a strong association between mean temperatures at 2m (Nceptempgl.dat) for
calibration and validation without transforming the data. all weather parameters in most case. In addition to this, as the results provide
The performance of the model during model calibration and validation in Table 3 the amount of explanatory power (partial correlation R valve)for
was measured by using statistics like mean, variance, sum, minimum and each predictor is unique.
maximum values of simulated and observed data by summary statistics In the town, the selected predictors have better chance of the association
analysis operation of SDSM software before scenario generation. This was with all predicand as the values of p is zero and Predictor like 500hpa
used to select an appropriate event threshold value, variance inflation and bias geo potential height (Ncep500gl.dat) with maximum temperature, mean
correction of the model. In addition to the above listed statistics, coefficient of temperature at 2m (Nceptempgl.dat) with minimum temperature and 850
determination (R2) for simulated and observed data was used for performance hpa geo potential height (Ncepp850gl.dat) with rainfall has higher positive
measure of the model. However, for discussion coefficient of determination association. On the other hand, surface air flow strength (Ncepp1-fgl.dat)
(R2) and mean of observed and simulated data comparison of all parameters predictor has higher negative association with both maximum and minimum
were selected and the condition for each predictand (rainfall, maximum and temperature and there is no, any predictor which has negative association with
minimum temperature) was presented in the following section. rain fall in the town (Table 3).

Climate projection for future period Model calibration, weather generation and its perfor-
mance
Based on the objective of this study, to see the future temperature and
precipitation values for Kombolcha town, the future data of these climate Before future scenario generation the results of the observed data for
variables were downloaded from CanESM2 for Kombolcha meteorological maximum temperature, Minimum temperature and precipitation are correlated
station. The future data were also generated for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the modeled data during the calibration and validation periods using
emission scenarios by SDSM method based on the average of 20 ensembles. the coefficients of determination. SDSM was calibrated for each parameters
The variations of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation in separately for the first 20 years (1976-1995) of observed data and predictor
the town for annually and seasonally condition were analysis based on the variables of NCEP reanalysis data sets, weather generation was done for the
base of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. last 10 years (1996 - 2005) of observed data set; the mean result of simulated

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Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

Table 2. SNHT for meteorological data of Kombolcha station.

Alpha( )
Parameters Minimum Maximum Mean SD
0.05pvalue 0.01pvalue
Rainfall 749.1 1319.3 1021.6 148.13 0.325 0.333
Maxi T 25.44 27.6 26.3 0.529 0.775 0.775
Min T 11.75 13.54 12.659 0.497 0.105 0.109

Table 3. Selected predictor variables in Kombolcha town.

Predictand
Predictor
MaxT R2 P Tmin R2 P Rainfall R2 P
Ncepp1-fgl.dat -0.277 0 -0.353 0 0.077 0
Ncepp1-vgl.dat -0.118 0
Ncep500gl.dat 0.295 0 0.203 0 0.072 0
Nceps500gl.dat 0.086 0
Ncepp8thgl.dat -0.212 0
Ncepp850gl.dat -0.11 0 0.249 0
Ncepshumgl.dat 0.369 0 0.096 0
Nceptempgl.dat 0.568 0

and observed data of all predictand data variations were determined. Figure In the future, relative to the observed mean value of Kiremt rainfall in
3a shows the mean of simulated and observed precipitation data of the study Kombolcha town, mean value of Kiremt rainfall will decrease for both RCP4.5
area from Kombolcha meteorological station. All most all months of the year and RCP8.5 emission scenarios in all three-time horizons (Table 5). The
have underestimated simulated results for precipitation. In the model, even maximum decreasing rate will occur in 2050s for both RCP4.5 (16.75%)
the above variation was observed, in related with a mean of observed and and RCP8.5 (26.7%). The decreasing rate of mean Kiremt season rainfall is
mean of simulated rainfall data at the monthly level but, the value of coefficient higher for RCP8.5 relative to RCP4.5 in respective future time interval of this
of determination (R2) which shows the overall association of observed and study. As cited by Belay et al.(2013), Arndt et al. (2011) indicate that the future
simulated data was 0.929 for the study area. So, the overall agreements of projections Kiremt rainfall will decline by 20% in Ethiopia and also indicated that
the observed and simulated mean results were very good with, related to the seasonally maximum precipitation reduction is projected during the Ethiopian
coefficient of determination (R2). Figure 3b shows R2 value of Kombolcha local rainy season of Kiremt in the future time horizons.
station in the study area. This show high variation and good agreement of
Future expected mean annual rainfall in 2080s in Kombolcha town will
observed data and simulated data from SDSM. The mean of observed and
show maximum decreased (13.8%) mean annual rainfall value relative to
simulated maximum temperatures in the study area show a little variation in observed mean annual rainfall (Table 6). In the town RCP4.5 shows 7.03%
monthly levels. As shown in Figure 4a, the simulated maximum temperature and 1.36% decrement in the 2020s and 2050s respectively; RCP 8.5 also
mean graph superimposed on observed maximum mean temperature graph, shows 5.47% and 7.22% decrement in the same respective time. This result
this may be due the condition that the simulated and observed mean maximum is found in the same line with Asore et al. (2010), all models and scenarios
temperature have all most equal means. In addition to this point, R2 values show a decrease in mean annual precipitation and consequently, a decrease
show good relationship between the observed and simulated data Figure 4b. in runoff in lower Awash River Basin, where the area of this study found; The
The minimum temperatures of the town have almost equal mean result Projection of future mean annual rainfall conditions suggest that the annual
for observed and simulated conditions at the baseline time throughout all mean rainfall in the Central Rift Valley area is most likely to decrease (Belayet
month of the years as indicated in Figure 5a. As a result of this graph of al., 2013), the generated future scenarios results show decreasing trend for
simulated and observed minimum mean temperature in the baseline period mean annual precipitation in upper Awash Sub-basin, of Ethiopia [4] and also
are superimposed each other in all months of the year. At the same time, as cited by [21], Monireh et al. (2013) was also indicated up to 25% decline of
R2 value shows the presence of great conformity between the observed and mean annual precipitation in Ethiopia for the future time interval.
simulated mean minimum temperature as indicated in Figure 5b. In this study Future temperature: Mean maximum temperature value which expected
from the three weather parameters (rainfall, maximum and minimum tempera), in the future three-time horizons (2020s, 250s and 2080s) for the two emission
the SDSM model simulation result shows good performance for maximum scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Kombolcha town for Belg, Kiremt and
temperature next to the minimum temperature when it evaluates by coefficient annual season are given in Table 7. In the town throughout the three-time
of determination. horizons mean maxim temperature of the three seasons (Belg, Kiremit and
annul) for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios indicates increment
Future temperature and precipitation
value when it compares with the base time mean maximum temperature.
Future precipitation: The mean results of future precipitation, which
was downscaled from canESM2 GCM by using NCEP-NCAR predictors show In the town the maximum increment of Belg season mean maximum
significant variation when it compared with the reference period (1976-2005) temperature will be occurred in 2050s for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with a value
mean rainfall of the town for all rainfall season (annual, Kiremt and Belg). of 1.88ºC and 1.77ºC respactively. For Kiremt season this will be occurred in
2020s for both RCP4.5 (1.52ºC) and RCP8.5 (1.48ºC). In annual base even
The mean value of rainfall for the Belge rain season for all three future time the increment will be occurred in 2020s for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the
horizons of this study Table 4 will indicate a higher value than the base time value is small when it compares with the Belg and Kiremt season increment
mean value of Belg season rainfall for RCP4.5 emission scenario. However, values.
for RCP8.5 emission scenario the mean value of Belg rainfall will indict lower
value as compared to observed time mean Belg rainfall value. The maximum The mean annual, Kiremt and Belg minimum temperature value of
increasing and decreasing mean value of Belg rainfall will occur in 2020s for Kombolcha town for the time of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s are indicated
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively (Table 4). Maximum increase and decrease in Table 8. The expected mean annual, Kiremt and Belg season minimum
will occur by 2020s, for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively 2020s = 2006 temperature of the town show increment values when it compares to base time
-2035, 2050s = 2036 – 2065 and 2080s = 2066 – 2095. value of respective seasons.
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Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

1.2
observed Simulated y = 0.8231x - 0.0216
1

Mean of observed precipitation

R² = 0.9293
1.5

Mean Preciptatio(mm)
0.8
1 0.6

(mm)
0.4
0.5
0.2
0 0

Feb

May
Mar

Sep
Jan

Jun
Jul
Apr

Aug

Oct
Nov
Dec
0 0.5 1 1.5
Time(Month)
Mean of Simulated precipitation (mm)
(a) (b)

Figure 3. Simulated and observed mean daily precipitation (a) and (R2) in studyarea.

35

Observed maximumtemp(℃)
1.2 30
Mean Maximum Temperature(℃)

25
1
20
0.8
15 y = 0.9784x + 1.0554
0.6 10 R² = 0.9622

0.4 5
0
0.2 0 20 40
0
Time(Month) Simulated maximum Temp(℃)
(a) (b)

Figure 4. Simulated and observed mean daily maximum temperature (a) and R2 (b) in the study area.

Simulated Observed 18.00

Observed minimum Tem(℃)

40.00 16.00 y = 0.9127x + 1.2553

Mean minimum Temperature(℃)

14.00 R² = 0.9857
35.00
30.00 12.00
25.00 10.00
20.00 8.00
15.00 6.00
10.00 4.00
5.00 2.00
0.00 0.00
Jan
Feb

Nov
Dec
Apr

Sep
Mar

Aug
May

Jul
Jun

Oct

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Time(Month) Simulated minimum Temp(℃)
(a) (b)

Figure 5. Simulated and observed mean daily minimum temperature (a) and R2 (b) of the study area.

Table 4. Mean of future Belg season rainfall relative to the base period.

Observation Projected Belg rainfall(mm)

RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Base period 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
215.69 231.9 221.6 221 195.1 198.4 198.9
Increase/Decrease (%) 7.5∗ 2.75 2.59 -9.57∗ -8.04 -7.78

Table 5. Futures mean Kiremt rainfall change relative to the base period rainfall.

Projected Annual rainfall(mm)

Observation
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Base period 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
1023.43 951.5 1009.5 968.5 967.5 949.5 882.2
Increase/Decrease (%) -7.03 -1.36 -5.37 -5.47 -7.22 -13.8

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Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

Table 6. Future annual rain fall change relative the base time.

Projected Annual rainfall(mm)

Observation
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Base period 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
1023.43 951.5 1009.5 968.5 967.5 949.5 882.2
Increase/Decrease (%) -7.03 -1.36 -5.37 -5.47 -7.22 -13.8

Table 7. Future annual, Kiremt and Belg season mean maximum temperature.

Maximum Temperature (℃)

Observation
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Base period 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
Belg(27.87℃) 27.93 29.75 28.19 27.93 29.64 28.26
Difference 0.06 1.88⃰ 0.32 0.05 1.77⃰ 0.39
Kiremt(28.10℃) 29.62 29.2 28.67 29.58 29.29 28.26
Annual (26.86℃) 26.97 26.86 26.94 26.97 26.9 27.12
Difference 0.11 0 0.08 0.11 0.04 0.26

Table 8. Future annual, Kiremt and Belg season mean minimum temperature.

Minimum Temperature
Observation
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Base period 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
Belg(13.72℃) 14.03 13.87 14.23 14.71 14.54 15.06
Difference 0.61⃰ 0.15 0.51 0.99 0.82 1.34⃰
Kiremt(14.90℃) 15.55 15.29 16.51 16.19 15.07 15.63
Difference 0.65 0.39 1.61⃰ 1.29⃰ 0.17 0.73
Annual (12.63℃) 12.76 12.96 13.89 14.48 13.82 14
Difference 0.13 0.33 1.35⃰ 1.85⃰ 1.19 1.37

The future mean annual minimum temperature of the town will be increased elements of the present and future, which helps us to determine consequences
by 1.35ºC for RCP4.5 and 1.37ºC for RCP8.5 in 2080s when it compared earlier and prepare for necessary adaptation measures.
to the historical mean annual minimum temperature of the town. This is
In Ethiopia, various downscaling applications and their potential to detect
the maximum increment values in the future three-time horizon. Similar
climate change impacts in agricultural and hydrological applications were
nature with future mean annual minimum temperature in2080s, Belge
conducted in different time intervals throughout all direction of the country.
and Kiremt season mean minimum temperature in the 2080s expected by
But, applications of statistical downscaling of general circulation models for
the increment value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. In
Belge the increment value for RCP8.5 (1.34ºC) will be higher than that of future time temperature and precipitation value estimation for industrial town
RCP4.5 (0.51ºC); the condition will be reverse in Kiremt when the mean of Kombolicha, South Wollo in Ethiopia has not been undertaken. So, in order
minimum temperature will be increased by 1.61ºC and 0.73ºC for RCP4.5 to fill the limitation by establish a relationship between past local climate and
and RCP8.5 respectively. past GCM outputs and extend this relationship into the future time interval
required scientific evidence on statistically downscaling of future temperature
In the future three-time horizons of this study the maximum Belg season and precipitation values since, it is vital for policymakers, researcher, planner
mean minimum temperature increment will be occurred in 2020s for RCP4.5 to formulate the adaptation and mitigation options of future temporal and
and in 2080s for RCP8.5. For Kiremt season mean minimum temperature with spatial variation in the study area. Therefore, the main aim of this study was
contradiction of Belg season mean minimum temperature, the increment will statistically downscale of future daily maximum temperature, daily minimum
be occurred in 2080s for RCP4.5 and in 2020s for RCP8.5. temperature, and precipitation value in Kombolcha Town, South Wollo, in
Ethiopia.
Conclusion The mean value of rainfall for the Belge rain season for all three future
time horizons of this study will indicate a higher value than the base time
Africa is considered as the most vulnerable continent to climate change mean value of Belg season rainfall for RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the
in the world. Regionally, in east Africa countries like Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, future, relative to the observed mean value of Kiremt rainfall in Kombolcha
and Tanzania people are badly hit by the impacts of climate change. Because town, the mean value of Kiremt rainfall will decrease for both RCP4.5and
of its significant dependence on the agricultural sector for production, RCP8.5 emission scenarios in all three-time horizons. Also, in the town
employment, and export revenues, Ethiopia also seriously threatened by both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show a decrease in mean annual
climate change, which contributes to frequent drought, flooding, and rising
precipitation values throughout the three future time interval of this study.
average temperatures.
In the town throughout the three-time horizons both mean maxim and
Whilst climate change is already manifesting in Ethiopia through changes minimum temperature of the three seasons (Belg, Kiremit and annul) for
in temperature and rainfall, its magnitude poorly studied at regional levels. This both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios indicates increment value
is because of that, the results of the temperature and precipitation data that when it compares with the base time mean maximum temperature. The
obtained from meteorological observation of some regions are missing and rise in temperature will intensify the town maximum heat effects in warm
limits the downscaling of future weather values from general circulation models. seasons and decrease in precipitation is expected along with a possible
One of the recent advances in climate science research is the development risk of water supply scarcity due to a low level of water supply access and
of global general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate changes in climatic a high rate of urbanization in the town.
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Shitu K, et al. J Environ Hazard, Volume, Volume 5:4, 2021

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