SCF 050.10.

08

SCF MARKET
FORECAST
REPORT
JULY 2024

smallcellforum.org/scf-market-forecast
 SCF develops the technical and commercial enablers to accelerate small cell
adoption and drive wide-scale densification.

Broad roll-out of small cells will make high-grade mobile connectivity accessible
and affordable for industries, enterprises and for rural and urban communities.
That, in turn, will drive new business opportunities for a widening ecosystem of
service providers.

Those service providers are central to our work program. Our operator members
establish the requirements that drive the activities and outputs of our technical groups.

We have driven the standardization of key elements of small cell technology

including Iuh, FAPI, nFAPI, SON, services APIs, TR-069 evolution and the
enhancement of the X2 interface. These specifications enable an open, multivendor
platform and lower barriers to densification for all stakeholders.

Today our members are driving solutions that include:

• 5G APIs to support open RAN architectures, including MAC/PHY interfaces

within small cells.
• Virtualization of the small cell layer.
• Enablers of multi-operator neutral host platforms, which will help accelerate
deployment.
• Key technologies to support small cell integration into edge computing and
IoT architectures.

The SCF Release Program has now established business cases and market drivers for
all the main use cases, clarifying market needs and addressing barriers to deployment
for residential, enterprise, rural & remote, and urban small cells. The SCF Release
Program website can be found here: www.scf.io

SCF 050.10.08 2
 ABOUT THE SURVEY

The SCF market forecast report is based forecasts conducted by Rethink

Technology Research on an annual basis. The forecast is based on a unique
proprietary model that has been refined over the past 20 years. Inputs to
the forecast assumptions include interviews with stakeholders across the
small cell industry including vendors, deployers, regulators, enterprises and
technology organizations. The most important and distinctive input is the
results of a major annual survey, conducted by Rethink, which asks deployers
of small cells detailed questions about their plans for new roll-outs, including
architectures, budgets, business models and partnerships.

The most recent survey attracted response from 107 organizations. These comprised:

• 71 mobile-only or fixed/mobile operators, in tiers 1 and 2, from a global base.

• 23 private network operators (PNOs) and enterprise service providers.
• 13 neutral host organizations with a strong focus on small cells, including
tower operators and specialized small cell infracos.
• The respondents are members of an opt-in panel which Rethink has been
recruiting since 2004 to study many aspects of cellular network deployment
and business case. All respondents are pre-qualified and typically have senior
executive roles in the networks or CTO functions.

All of these 107 companies are actively deploying small cell networks, or planning to
do so within 12-24 months, in at least one country and environment.

The survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2024 and included questions about:

• Current deployment of small cell networks in different environments.

• Estimated deployment of small cell networks by year, over the coming five years.
• Breakdown of those deployments by spectrum band; radio technology;
indoor/outdoor; public/private; architecture.
• Intention to adopt new architectures such as vRAN and Open RAN.

SCF 050.10.08 About the survey 3

 • Current and planned deployment of edge compute nodes, collocated with
small cells.
• Business model for deployment (e.g. private enterprise network, neutral host).
• Drivers and barriers to deployment – what factors would accelerate or
delay their planned deployment plans, or encourage them to deploy small
cells for the first time?

All responses are provided with guarantee of anonymity, but responses are analyzed
by region, operator type etc. The responses provide key inputs to Rethink’s
proprietary forecast model. This also includes other data and metrics which will
affect the forecast, such as:

• Past history of actual deployment (10 years’ history).

• Expected availability of different kinds of spectrum by region.
• Expected regulatory and other government decisions by region.
• Expected availability of new technologies and standards.
• Vendor expectations for adoption patterns.

SCF 050.10.08 About the survey 4

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The small cell sector, like the whole hi-tech industry, has been buffeted by
unexpected crises in the past four years, and the ecosystem is still dealing
with the impact of pandemic after-effects, geopolitical tensions, and macro-
economic issues such as inflation, which have led many operators to reduce
their capex budgets and deployments plans. Against this backdrop, it is more
vital than ever for small cells to be proven as a way for operators, enterprises
and goverments to achieve their digital and industrial goals in a cost-effective
manner. More broadly, small cell architectures must be devised as part of the
broader evolution of connectivity, which will make the sizes of cells largely
irrelevant, and focus instead on converging cloud, communications and
sensing to support a rich platform for a huge array of new experiences.

This year’s SCF market forecast takes a relatively cautious view of the growth in
deployments over the period to 2030. We envisage about 12% fewer units to be
installed in 2024-2026 than we anticipated in 2023, which will affect overall volumes
until 2027. But nevertheless, the forecast reveals many signs that the ecosystem
is rising to the challenges of a tough economic climate, as well as addressing the
specific barriers to adoption within the small cell sector. Technical and architectural
advances will enable new economics and use cases and additional spectrum bands
and sharing schemes will open up these networks to many potential network
deployers and operators. That diversification is critical to the success of the industry,
since it will enable 5G, and future 6G, to meet the widely divergent connectivity
and services requirements of many different industries, geographical locations, user
groups and applications providers.

A high level of innovation in business and technology, to some extent driven by the
difficulties in the telecoms market, will help to drive growth in deployments of small
cells at a CAGR of 8.6% in unit terms. Deployments will peak in 2028 at 9.5 million
units, up from 4.6 million in 2022. These forecasts translate into a global installed
base of over 60m units (radio heads or integrated small cells) by the end of the
decade, and annual revenues to vendors and integrators totalling USD4.5bn in 2028.

SCF 050.10.08 Executive summary 5

 Small cell deployments are dominated by enterprise, particularly indoor, networks.
These will account for around two-thirds of total roll-outs throughout the period,
though the percentage will decline slightly (from 69% to 65%) between 2022 and
2030, mainly because of rising confidence and demand for public, especially urban,
small cells. CAGR in public small cells will outperform the overall growth rate of
8.6%, and the enterprise rate of 7.8%, reaching 10% in urban and 14% in rural
environments.

The SCF forecast is derived from a unique proprietary model that has been refined
over the past 15 years and draws on a wide variety of inputs. The most important
is an annual survey of small cell deployers, which this year attracted 107 responding
organizations, including MNOs, private network operators and neutral hosts. This
identified a series of challenges that could accelerate planned deployment timescales
if addressed rapidly, or delay them if not.

The importance of addressing these barriers (Chapter 2.2) is critical. In a best case,
this could boost small cell deployments by 12% in 2024-2030, or in a worst case,
depress them by 8%. In 2026, when the gulf between best and worst case scenarios
will be largest, that would equate to a difference of 1.5 million units deployed. Most
of the barriers identified by deployers relate to cost, scalability or infrastructure,
but there are also technology and standards improvements that will make it easier
to lower these barriers. In particular, SCF is working on identifying and filling gaps
in 3GPP specifications that are necessary to look beyond standards in individual
components and cells, and create common architectures that address the whole
small cell network, making it deployable and consistent. This work is vital as part
of the adoption of 5G, whose networks are more complex than in 4G, and where
there are greater gaps in the standards.

Mobile industry stakeholders have started to consider the technologies that will
underpin the next generation of networks, but it is vital that ‘6G’ is aligned with real
world operator and customer requirements, and that it is an evolution of a platform
in which 5G performance and deployability have been fully addressed. The operators
surveyed are investing in cloud platforms and new spectrum, not primarily for raw
performance increases, but to support new monetization opportunities, and to lay
the foundations for future 6G (Chapter 3). The move to the cloud has been slow so
far, but will gather pace mid-decade, and will help to drive deployment of small cell
Open RAN at a CAGR of 78% in the forecast period. By 2030, two-thirds of new
deployments will be cloud-based and of those, 88% will support open interfaces.

The dominance of small cell unit deployments by enterprise markets is driven by the
wide range of operating scenarios and services that must be supported. That will see
a growing diversity of business models, many with limited involvement by the MNO
(although many MNOs will set up specific enterprise network units). PNOs will be
the biggest deployers while neutral hosts will see the highest growth, accounting
for 6% of sites deployed in 2022 and 17% by 2030 (Chapter 4). There will be
diversification of the business model in public urban networks too, and a rising role

SCF 050.10.08 Executive summary 6

 for infrastructure specialists and neutral hosts which will be responsible for 28% of
urban deployments in 2030. However, active public networks will be primarily still
operated by MNOs (Chapter 5).

In both enterprise and public networks, the need for new monetization options
will drive rising interest in convergence or colocation of small cells, especially once
virtualized, with standalone packet cores, and/or with edge cloud that can support
both network functions and customer applications. By 2030, one-third of small cells
will be collocated with both packet core and edge, and only 14% of enterprise cells
will be converged with neither, opening up new infrastructure models.

New sources of spectrum, and improved access to spectrum via sharing or light
licensing, will be critical to support the increasing variety of business models and the
widening range of small cell deployers (Chapter 6). By 2030, we forecast that 58% of
small cells will be deployed in shared spectrum, up from 31% in 2022, while 27% will
be using millimeter wave spectrum, up from 6% in 2022.

All these trends will help to lower the barriers that still stand in the way of
at‑scale deployment in many markets and scenarios, and they will also inject new
confidence and innovation into the ecosystem as increasingly dense networks
become a central part of all 5G, and future 6G, networks. This is laying the
foundations for a new generation of fully cloud/AI-based platforms, and a world in
which the boundaries between small and macro cells become irrelevant as all kinds
of connectivity and cloud infrastructure converge to support a vast range of future
services and experiences.

SCF 050.10.08 Executive summary 7

 CONTENTS

1. Introduction 9

2. Overall deployments forecast 12

2.1 Top level deployment forecast 12
2.2 Comparison with 2023 forecast 13
2.3 Deployment patterns by environment and region 14

3. Drivers and barriers 17

3.1 Best and worst case forecast scenarios 17
3.2 Key barriers to small cell deployment at scale 19
3.3 Segments that will drive near-term growth in small cell deployment 21

4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 23

4.1 Adoption of emerging radio standards 24
4.2 New technology adoption in near and medium term 25
4.3 Adoption timescales for virtualized RAN architectures 27
4.4 Progress in small cell Open RAN deployment 29

5. Enterprise markets and models 32

5.1 Enterprise deployments by business model 33
5.2 Enterprise deployments by vertical 34
5.3 Colocation of small cells with other enterprise assets 35

6. Urban markets and models 38

6.1 Urban deployments by business model 38
6.2 Colocation of small cells with edge and core 39

7. Spectrum trends 41
7.1 Small cell spectrum is diversifying rapidly 41
7.2 Growth in mmWave and shared spectrum deployments 42

8. Conclusion 45

SCF 050.10.08 Executive summary 8

 1. INTRODUCTION

The boundaries between cells of different sizes are increasingly blurred or

irrelevant as mobile network and cloud infrastructure converge around
platforms that can support a vast new array of applications and experiences.
The mobile ecosystem is shifting dramatically as a result of rapidly evolving
expectations from enterprise and policy makers, and the changing role of
hyperscalers as networks migrate to the cloud. However, technologies and
operational processes do not always keep pace with the vision, and a vital
role of industry organizations such as SCF is to complement the work of
standards bodies and regulators, and lay common foundations for a full
5G-enabled platform.

This is very much a work in progress, but is critical for operators, infracos, vendors
and end users to derive the maximum benefit and ROI from 5G. This year’s SCF
market forecast highlights the key opportunities for a new generation of small
cell networks, but also takes a relatively cautious view on how quickly those
opportunities will translate into a new wave of at-scale deployment, with a CAGR of
8.6% between 2022 and 2030 in our baseline forecast.

However, the wide gap between this baseline and our best case and worst case
scenarios indicates a considerable degree of uncertainty in the market. There are
many challenges that continue to restrict small cell networks in reaching their full
potential (see Chapter 2.2) and if these could be addressed as quickly as possible,
the industry could reach our best case outcome – CAGR of 9.5%, and an extra
5.3 million units deployed cumulatively over our forecast period, compared to the
baseline case.

Even more importantly, those extra 5.3 million radio units would enable a wide
range of additional monetization options for the small cell ecosystem, and benefits
for users, especially in enterprises.

SCF 050.10.08 1. Introduction 9

 Some of the reasons why we are cautious about achieving the maximum roll-outs
relate to macro-economic factors. Like all segments, the small cell ecosystem
continues to feel the aftershocks of pandemic, war and inflation, and associated
issues such as limited access to capital and reduced operator capex budgets. But
when deployed well, small cells can help to alleviate some of these economic
stresses on operators and on enterprise users by offering a resource-efficient
approach to digitalization, especially indoors. To achieve this outcome, there are still
barriers to progress that need to be lowered.

Much of the rate of progress is predicated on the pace of adoption of 5G, which
in small cell networks is different to that in macro. As our forecast (Chapter 3.1)
indicates, the tipping point for 5G small cells is in 2027 (the first time 5G-only cells
account for the largest share of new deployments). That relatively late turnaround
year is partly explained by the focus of most early industry efforts on macrocells;
and by the newness of most 4G small cell networks. Private and enterprise
networks, in particular, have been dominated by 4G and unless there is a pressing
use case that requires 5G, most of these networks will be upgraded in line with
normal upgrade cycles.

However, there is a rising demand for 5G small cell networks from greenfield cellular
organizations as well as for the beginnings of 5G public network densification in a
few countries. That makes it vital that 5G small cell networks are fully deployable
and affordable, in the same way that 4G platforms have become, in order to
stimulate and meet user demand, and unlock the 5G market.

Some barriers to a new wave of 5G-driven roll-out, as our survey shows

(Chapter 2.2), are being progressively addressed, and the work of SCF has been
instrumental in addressing issues such as siting regulations in many areas. However,
as user requirements change and become more demanding, so it has become more
difficult than ever to define a platform that can meet all these needs, while remaining
affordable and deployable.

Deployability relies on standardization, not just of equipment components but the

way whole networks are built and managed. Standards bodies, notably 3GPP, set
baseline specifications but there is still considerable work that needs to be done by
other companies or organizations to turn those specs into a complete solution that
is fully aligned with the needs of customers, but also provides a common blueprint
for all deployers.

A key focus of SCF’s work is to ‘fill in the gaps’ between official specs, either by
submitting additions to standards, or building broader architectures around them.
SCF can cultivate relationships with end users, including enterprises, that enable it
to translate their requirements into technical proposals. Without this work, vendors
and component makers recognize that they will be constrained in their ability to
deliver solutions that will address the key concerns of deployers, most of which
relate to TCO, scalability and monetization.

SCF 050.10.08 1. Introduction 10

 For instance, 3GPP establishes some guidelines for building networks out of small
cells, but these are necessarily as generic as possible. Further elements need to
be standardized for 5G small cell networks, to achieve scale and functionality in a
consistent way. Examples include:

• Small cell gateways, to connect access point to the core, incorporating

security and aggregation of large numbers of cells.
• Support for standardized local breakout, vital for enterprise implentations,
and associated legal intercept solutions. This was standardized in 4G (Local
IP Access) but there is no similar spec in 5G as yet.
• Standardized solutions for full mobile hand-off between indoor small cell
networks and macro networks.

Identifying and addressing missing links like these, to create a complete small cell
network architecture, will greatly increase the technology’s power in lowering barriers
to deployment and meeting user demands, thus unlocking the 5G small cell market.

SCF 050.10.08 1. Introduction 11

 2. OVERALL DEPLOYMENTS
FORECAST

The SCF annual market forecast is based on a unique model that relies on a
wide range of inputs, including a broad survey of small cell deployers, which
in 2024 attracted response from 107 organizations (see page 3 for details).
It provides predictions for deployment on the basis of units implemented,
with one unit equating to one integrated small cell, or one radio unit in
a disaggregated network with a separated baseband, or one antenna in a
distributed antenna system (DAS).

Units include indoor and outdoor small cells and active DAS, but not WiFi-only
access points. They do include ‘mini-macro’ units that operate at full power but are
deployed on smart poles or street furniture.

In 2024, the forecast period has been extended to 2030, to reflect the intensifying
work on next-generation architectures that could start to be commercialized at the
end of the decade, and the timeframes for initiatives by SCF working groups.

2.1 In 2022 to 2030, deployments of small cells will grow at a CAGR of 8.6% in unit
Top level terms, achieving cumulative shipments of 66 million radio units and an installed base
deployment of 48 million (reflecting that, as some small cell networks reach maturity, about
forecast one-quarter of units deployed will be replacements or upgrades, with that figure
weighted towards the later years of the study, and aligned with migration from 4G
to 5G Standalone (SA).

Deployments will peak in 2028 at 9.5 million units, up from 4.6 million in 2022.
These forecasts translate into a global installed base of over 60m units (radio heads
or integrated small cells) by the end of the decade, and annual revenues to vendors
and integrators totalling USD4.5bn in 2028.

SCF 050.10.08 2. Overall deployments forecast 12

 12,000

10,000

8,000

,000 RU
6,000

4,000

2,000

Figure 1-1.
Small cell total 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
deployments
2022-2030 2024 forecast 4,623 4,845 5,465 6,576 7,780 8,670 9,545 9,420 8,950

Looking ahead to 2029-2030, there will be some slowdown as the market waits for
the emergence of new ‘6G’ technologies, including advanced AI-native architectures.
These will appear in commercial products from 2029 but we do not expect at-scale
deployment until the early 2030s, creating a slight deployment hiatus at the turn of
the decade.

2.2 In the 2023 forecast, we reduced our expected unit numbers for 2024-2025
Comparison significantly as a result of the unexpectedly challenging global economic climate
with 2023 as well as some developments that were specific to the small cell market, such
forecast as cooling sentiment towards this market among towerco investors. In the 2024
forecast, we have reduced the expected numbers for 2024-2026 again, though by a
smaller amount than a year ago. We envisage about 12% fewer units to be installed
in 2024-2026 than we anticipated in 2023, which will affect overall volumes until
2027. This is a result of:

• sharper-than-expected reductions in capex by mobile operators, which will

not be entirely offset by growth in spending by other deployers such as
neutral hosts or private network operators
• continuing global economic stagnation, which is affecting access to capital for
infrastructure projects
• intensifying impact of geopolitical tensions on deployer access to technology
including some chipsets, and on addressable markets for vendors
• general slow adoption rates for 5G Standalone in all environments
• reduced activity by many large towercos in small cells
• increased uncertainty about demand and monetization models in enterprise
markets because of economic caution

SCF 050.10.08 2. Overall deployments forecast 13

 However, the overall CAGR between 2022 and 2028 will be similar (about 12.8%)
because deployments will accelerate in 2027-2028 and in the latter year, we are
forecasting higher units than we did last year.

12,000

10,000

8,000
,000 radio units

6,000

4,000

2,000

Figure 1-2. 0
Small cell deployments 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
forecast – comparison of
2024 and 2023 forecasts 2023 forecast 2024 forecast

2.3 Deployments are split between enterprise, urban and rural/remote environments.
Deployment Enterprise small cells are predominantly in-building though they include outdoor or
patterns by indoor/outdoor networks that are operated by, or on behalf of, an enterprise, such
environment as a port or campus. They include private and hybrid public/private networks, and
and region dedicated slices of the MNO network, but not enterprise usage of public networks.
Some private networks may be deployed and run by dedicated enterprise divisions
within MNOs or telcos.

Urban and rural small cells are those that support public usage and are generally
operated by an MNO or fixed/mobile operator. The majority of these cells are
outdoors but public access networks that extend coverage of the public RAN within
buildings are included. For instance, a small cell network in a shopping mall, that is an
extension of the public RAN, counts as an urban network, but one that is operated
specifically for the mall owner, or a store, is defined as an enterprise network.

Figure 1-3 shows that small cell deployments are dominated by enterprise,
particularly indoor, networks. These account for around two-thirds of total roll-outs
throughout the period, though the percentage declines slightly (from 69% to 65%)
between 2022 and 2030, mainly because of rising confidence and demand for urban
and rural small cells.

The latter factor means that the CAGR in public small cells will outperform the
overall growth rate of 8.6%, reaching 10% in urban and 14% in rural environments,
though the latter is from a low base.

SCF 050.10.08 2. Overall deployments forecast 14

 Rural deployments will only account for 2-3% of units throughout the period,
reflecting the limited need for densification in sparse populations and the increasing
investment in macro coverage of rural areas. Rural small cell deployments will
increasingly be focused on coverage of roads, fields etc to support vehicular and IoT
applications.

The CAGR in enterprise small cells will be 7.8%. In ecosystem revenue terms,
enterprise contribution is somewhat less than urban/rural, averaging about 58%,
because of the higher equipment and services costs of public network small cells,
especially in smart cities. But the deployment of small cells for the huge diversity of
enterprise use cases and environments will remain the primary engine of the small
cell sector.

12,000

10,000

8,000
,000 RU

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Figure 1-3.
Rural and remote 92 97 109 132 156 173 286 283 269
Small cell deployments,
Urban 1,341 1,357 1,530 1,841 2,178 2,514 2,768 2,826 2,864
2021-2028, by
environment Enterprise 3,190 3,392 3,826 4,603 5,446 5,982 6,491 6,311 5,818

In regional terms (Figure 1-4), five regions will achieve deployments of over one
million radio units by 2027. The last of these will be Western Europe, which will
trail North America, Greater China, South-east Asia and South Asia in hitting this
particular milestone. The small cell market has always been dominated by Asia-Pacific
in volume terms and in innovation in new network architectures and this pattern
will continue in the road to 6G. In 2030, we expect South Asia, predominantly India,
to have overtaken South-east Asia and China in its shipment rates, propelled by the
evolution of a homegrown ecosystem that supports rapid and affordable roll-out,
plus intensive demand from large city projects and from industry.

China and South-east Asia will be starting to move towards next-generation

architectures, which will include new levels of densification, especially indoors and
on transport routes. If current geopolitical patterns persist, China is likely to have
developed a significant platform and ecosystem of its own by 2030. South-east Asia
will be driven by next-generation migrations in Japan, South Korea and Singapore; by
industrial policies in Malaysia; and by the start of mass deployment in Indonesia.

SCF 050.10.08 2. Overall deployments forecast 15

 In CAGR terms, the highest growth, at 30%, from a relatively low base, will be in
Africa, driven mainly by large city projects and by industrial networks, linked to
digital and economic transformation initiatives. This will be almost twice the CAGR
of South Asia, whose growth rate will be the second fastest in the world during this
period at 14.8%.

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000
,000 RU

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

NAM CALA Western Europe

Figure 1-4.
Eastern Europe Middle East Africa
Small cell deployments,
total, 2022-2030, by region SE Asia South Asia China

SCF 050.10.08 2. Overall deployments forecast 16

 3. DRIVERS AND BARRIERS

Each year, the SCF deployer survey provides unique insights into the most
important challenges that operators and infracos believe would accelerate
their plans if addressed, or delay them if not (Figures 2-3, 2-4 and 2-5). These
indicators are incorporated as variables into the forecast model to identify
a best case (if all the key challenges are addressed in the short term, and
more rapidly than we currently assume), and a worst case (if none of them
is addressed in the short term). These different scenarios, for enterprise and
public small cells, are summarized in Figures 2-1 and 2-2 and provide valuable
intelligence for the whole ecosystem, into which challenges must be urgently
addressed in order to achieve the optimal outcome.

3.1 As Figure 2-1 shows, the potential gap between best and worst case scenarios is
Best and worst widest in 2026, when the gulf tops 1.5 million units, or 20% of the base case unit
case forecast forecast. That would equate to 12% upside, compared to the base case, in the best
scenarios outcome, or 8% downside in the worst.

After 2026, we have increased optimism that many key barriers will have been
lowered and that the ecosystem will have addressed the worst effects of the current
economic slowdown, and so our forecast shifts closer to the best case. Overall, the
upside potential is larger than the downside because we believe that our forecast
is somewhat conservative and that the industry is more likely to out-perform
expectations than to under-perform significantly.

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 17

 12,000

10,000

8,000

,000 RU
6,000

4,000

2,000

0
Figure 2-1. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Base case and best and
Best case 4,623 4,845 5,892 7,340 8,726 9,654 10,355 10,137 9,571
worst case forecasts for
small cell deployment Base case 4,623 4,845 5,465 6,576 7,780 8,670 9,545 9,420 8,950
2022-2030 Worst case 4,623 4,845 5,089 6,003 7,182 8,237 9,160 9,040 8,621

There are differences between the three deployment environments in terms of risk
and potential upside or downside. In the enterprise environment, 2026 is the year
of peak uncertainty and therefore the widest gap between upside and downside
(just over one million units, with a potential upside of 10% compared to the base
case, and a downside of 8%. In urban and rural networks, the greatest variation is
seen in 2027, because there is greater uncertainty over how quickly regulatory and
implementation barriers can be lowered in this sector, compared to enterprise.
There is a gap of 520,000 units in 2027 between the two extreme scenarios,
equating to potential upside of 9% and downside of 5%.

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000
,000 RU

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Figure 2-2.
Best and worst case Best case Enterprise Best case Urban
forecasts for small cell
deployment 2022-2030, Best case Rural and remote Worst case Enterprise
by environment Worst case Urban Worst case Rural and remote

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 18

3.2 How closely the real pace of deployment maps to these various scenarios will
Key barriers depend on macro-economic and overall telecoms industry trends, and those
to small cell account for some of the variables in our assumptions. But the primary determinant
deployment will relate to specific challenges in small cell deployment and how rapidly these can
at scale be addressed, in order to drive confidence and economies of scale into the market,
and in turn to improve monetization models and reduce risk.

We asked the 107 survey respondents about the key factors that would accelerate
or delay their planned timeframe for commercial small cell deployment. It is clear
that each of the three groups included in the survey – neutral hosts, MNOs and
PNOs – has different challenges, and these vary still more between public and
enterprise networks. The goalposts are not fixed either, and we can see in Figures
2-3 to 2-5 that the factors have changed somewhat since the 2023 survey. Some
barriers have already been lowered and have moved down the list of priorities, while
new technical or market developments may have introduced new factors.

Figure 2-3 shows the primary concerns that affect neutral hosts in the enterprise
market. These are led by barriers to scalability when so many different environments
and stakeholder mixes must be supported; and lack of clear monetization models.
Compared to a year earlier, scalability has risen from second to first place while
regulatory issues have fallen from first position to the ‘other’ category, reflecting
rising confidence that regulators support shared infrastructure, and the impact of
initiatives such as JOTS.

13 17
Scalability – diverse markets

10 Lack of clear monetization

Site issues

Complex stakeholder relationships

17
11 Lack of MNO support

Infra TCO

Figure 2-3. Other

Most significant barriers
16 16
to small cell deployment,
neutral hosts

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 19

 For MNOs (Figure 2-4), their number one barriers in enterprise networks are most
commonly related to economics – high or uncertain total cost of ownership of
passive and active infrastructure, and lack of clear monetization models. That was
similar a year ago, except that the second most-cited barrier was the view that
there was sufficient capacity in the macro network and spectrum to support the
MNOs’ business, without densification. A year later, that has fallen from second to
sixth place, implying that MNOs are starting to see the need to densify, especially to
support high-value enterprise use cases with dedicated networks.

13
18
Infra TCO

Lack of clear monetization

11
Scalability – diverse use cases

Require shared risk and investment

16
Scalability – siting
12
Macro capacity sufficient

Other
Figure 2-4.
Most significant barriers 15
15
to small cell deployment,
MNOs

As for pure-play PNOs (Figure 2-5), the main concerns relate to operational issues
in complex environments, especially those with other technologies in place – the
relationship with WiFi, in terms of technical interworking and cost optimization,
is the second factor. WiFi did not feature in the top six last year, but increased
availability of WiFi 7 have given it increased prominence in terms of its coexistence
with cellular small cells, or its potential to reduce the need for them. Network
automation is the key solution to operational complexities, in the respondents’ view,
but this is seen as immature for at-scale networks and takes more prominence than
in last year’s survey. Other issues include limited access to spectrum for private
networks; the need for MNO cooperation in the rising number of scenarios where
enterprises want a hybrid public/private platform; and uncertainty of the level and
growth of future demand.

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 20

 10
19
Operational complexity
11
Relationship with WiFi

Lack of spectrum

Require MNO cooperation (hybrid)

13 17 Immature automation

Uncertain demand

Other
Figure 2-5.
Most significant barriers 14 16
to small cell deployment,
PNOs

3.3 A key challenge for deployers of small cells networks is that the markets and
Segments that patterns of demand vary so dramatically between sectors and even within sub-
will drive near- segments of the same industry. It is critical to the return on investment model that
term growth operators can identify some ‘quick wins’ – use cases or segments where there will
in small cell be high demand in the near future – and then build on success in those areas in
deployment order to expand into more challenging or long-term opportunities.

Last year, based on surveys and other ecosystem conversations, we identified three
areas of particular growth for small cells in the 2023-2026 period. These were
campus networks (indoor/outdoor RAN covering multiple industrial or academic
buildings and grounds); smart cities (one platform supporting multiple public and
private services and providers, often requiring many types of connectivity, and based
on a city-specific rather than a public MNO network); and immersive experiences
(consumer and enterprise use cases that rely on techniques such as extended reality
and generative AI to merge digital and physical worlds).

All of these span multiple vertical sectors, applications and deployment models, but
have usage demands that can only be met by networks that support density and
ubiquitous coverage. In addition, they all have requirements for high mobility, low
latency or dynamic spectrum usage that make cellular connectivity, rather than WiFi-
only, ideal.

These three segments are still the most prominent opportunities a year later, and all
three have driven significant deployments in the past year. The patterns of demand
within them have sometimes changed over the 12 months. Immersive experiences
are no longer commonly labelled ‘metaverse’ and are more heavily weighted towards
industrial applications such as smart factory control and digital twins than towards
consumer usage, which may be harder to monetize. Smart city projects have grown
in scale, particularly in parts of the Middle East and South Asia. Private campus
networks are increasingly focused not just on improved connectivity and coverage

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 21

 but on networks that are optimized for certain key applications such as automated
industrial vehicles or enhanced mobile videoconferencing.

Figure 2-6 shows our forecast for growth in deployment in these three segments.
Private campus networks accounted for 23% of enterprise small cells deployed in
2023 and this will grow to 46% by 2030, driving a unit CAGR of 17.4%.

Smart cities accounted for 12% of enterprise/city deployments in 2023 and this will
rise to 33%, at a CAGR of 22%. And immersive experiences were the key driver for
2% of all small cells deployed in 2023, which will rise to almost 10% in 2030, with a
CAGR of 30.5%.

3,000

2,500

2,000
,000 RU

1,500

1,000

500

Figure 2-6. 0
Small cell deployments, 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
total, 2021-2030, in key Private campus 468 732 1,235 1,465 1,780 2,100 2,180 2,540 2,745 2,650
segments of rapid growth
Smart cities 250 392 610 780 1,010 1,270 1,450 1,635 1,780 1,895
within enterprise and
urban environments Immersive 71 95 131 195 256 398 510 615 721 795

SCF 050.10.08 3. Drivers and barriers 22

 4. TOWARDS 6G – TECHNOLOGY
ROADMAPS TO 2030

This year’s survey was the first one that addressed expectations for future
network evolution as far ahead as 2030, which is expected to be the start
of ‘6G’.

It is very unclear exactly what 6G will look like. Operators are highly resistant to
another major capex cycle and will certainly favor an evolution of the RAN rather
than a big upgrade, harnessing software-defined and cloud-based technologies to
enable new capabilities without a wholesale network replacement. So the primary
innovation may be in the cloud platform rather than the RAN, and certainly, one of
the few areas of agreement is that 6G will need to be cloud-native and AI-native,
rather than applying these technologies retroactively.

But the new use cases envisaged for the 2030s are likely to require new radio and air
interface capabilities, if they are to be supported cost-effectively. Standards bodies in
the telecoms and cloud worlds, as well as many R&D projects led by governments,
academia, vendors or operators, are starting to work on future specifications and
technologies, and so there is some visibility of what the next-generation small cell
architecture may look like.

Certainly, many deployers are already thinking about their technology roadmaps. As
with 5G Standalone and 5G Advanced, 6G is likely to see adoption being led first
in small cell networks, since these are somewhat less risky and demanding, in terms
of coverage and performance challenges, than the macro RANs. So the results of
the survey, as summarized in Figures 3-2 and 3-3, will be important indicators for
any ecosystem players that are looking at the earliest phase of the next-generation
network roll-out. Of course, SCF work will increasingly be focused on supporting
that, with particular activity centered on the semiconductor vendors, whose
innovations will drive the specific shape of future networks and devices.

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 23

4.1 Deployers may expect to deploy a wide range of emerging technologies in the next
Adoption of few years, to enhance their networks and business cases, but the story of the past
emerging radio five years has been one of disappointing adoption of several platforms that were
standards supposed to be foundational to 5G success, notably 5G Standalone (SA) with the
5G core, as well as virtualized RAN (vRAN). All of these have made slower progress
than expected, a trend that has been somewhat less pronounced in small cells
than in the macro networks, but has still led to a relatively cautious approach to
architecture, and therefore to support for radical new use cases and economics.

Figure 3-1 shows the dominance of established technologies in the early 2020s.
Non-5G small cells have been a declining percentage of total deployments since
2022, but continue to be rolled out in large numbers because of their maturity,
cost-effectiveness and because the requirement for 5G capabilities is not clear in
all scenarios, especially those that are focused mainly on improved coverage for
voice and simple data applications. Non-5G small cells will only fall below 50% of
deployments in 2025 and there will be a significant installed base throughout the
decade – replacements with 5G small cells will be a small part of the landscape
until 2027, when there will be more enterprise applications that absolutely require
5G capabilities.

5G NR Non-Standalone (NSA), which works with a 4G core, will see growth until
2025. Small cells, like other RANs, are relatively easy to deploy when they can use
an existing packet core and so 5G small cell roll-out has been heavily weighted
towards public and private environments where a 4G core (MNO or enterprise) is
already in place.

Real momentum behind 5G SA, and the 5G Advanced standards that will start to be
commercialized this year, will come from 2025. This will be driven by enterprise and
city networks that need to support advanced experiences and use cases, that cannot
be effectively supported by 4G or 5G NSA.

As the figure shows, this momentum will drive a sharp increase in investment
in more modern technologies from 2027. That will be the first year in which
more than half (55%) of new small cells deployed will support 5G SA and/or 5G
Advanced, and by 2030 that percentage will have risen to 90%. By 2030, there will
also be deployment of some small cells that support the latest of the three 3GPP
5G Advanced standards releases, Release 20. This release is billed as the crossover
between 5G and 6G, and by the end of the decade there will certainly be clarity
about what 6G will (and will not) entail, and some equipment will be on the market
that boasts at least pre-standard support for 6G capabilities.

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 24

 12,000 100
90
10,000 80

% of RUs that are 5G SA

70
8,000
60

,000 RU
6,000 50
40
4,000
30
20
2,000
10
0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Figure 3-1. 5G NR Non-standalone 5G NR Standalone

Small cell deployments, 5G-Advanced or pre-6G Non-5G
total, 2022-2030 by radio
technology 5G/4G combined BTS % 5G SA or 5G-A (no 4G)

4.2 With that outcome only six years away, it is unsurprising that small cell deployers
New are thinking about their future technology priorities and timescales. When asked
technology to focus on the first phase of the period (to end of 2026), respondents identified a
adoption long list of technologies that they believe will be important to improve the small cell
in near and business case.
medium term
Of the 10 technologies that were most-cited, Figure 3-2 shows the percentage of
deployers that expect to implement each one by the end of 2026. The biggest shift,
compared to last year’s survey, is in 5G SA and the 5G core. although slightly fewer
expect to implement it for small cells within three years, than in the year-ago survey
(28% versus 32%), reflecting continuing uncertainties about how far it enhances the
business case compared to 4G or NSA, plus a desire by some deployers to wait until
5G Advanced is more mature and undergo just one migration.

However, there is a big leap in the percentage that expect to implement 5G SA

specifically for enterprise networks (55%, up from 42% last year), which indicates
that enterprise small cells will lead the hoped-for uptick in 5G SA roll-out, well
ahead of public networks.

Enterprise small cells often play a leadership role in an emerging technology because
of the demanding requirements of some industrial applications, and because they are
usually greenfield environments in which the risk of trying something new is reduced.
Virtualized and Open RAN is another example, and the second most-rated new
technology enabler in the survey.

For some technologies, deployers envisage far more aggressive deployment

timelines than they did a year ago, notably RAN AI, edge/small cell convergence and
5G-Advanced features such as 5G positioning and sensor networking. All of these
are particularly valuable in enabling new enterprise capabilities and applications, and

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 25

 they will all interwork in complex scenarios such as smart factories (though the big
leap in intent to deploy RAN AI may owe something to current hype levels).

60

50

% planning to deploy commercially

40

30

20

10

0
2023 42 42 30 8 22 18 24 32 23 35
2024 55 38 35 34 33 29 28 28 20 19
Figure 3-2.
Intentions to deploy
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ise

ity

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ta

ta
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to

to
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technologies in small cells

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an
en

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ce

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within 3 years (% planning

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5G
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5G

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5G

Im
comparison between 2023
liz

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ua

5G

and 2024 surveys

rt
Vi

But deployers are also thinking about the medium term, and when they look ahead to
2030, we see high levels of investment in 5G SA, 5G Advanced, Open RAN and RAN
AI, as well as the introduction of additional emerging technologies such as comms/
sensor convergence, slicing and ultra-density (Figure 3-3). Two-thirds of deployers
expect to invest in 5G SA between 2025 and 2030 (the rest will largely have started
that migration before 2025), and just over half will invest in 5G Advanced.

Some of the key technologies that the mobile ecosystem expects to be pivotal to
next-generation networks are heavily focused on small cells rather than macro RAN,
and adoption will be driven by small cell deployers. These include millimeter wave
(mmWave) spectrum, which is optimal for dense networks (see Chapter 6 for more
detail), as well as sensor networks with ultra-precise positioning, and ultra-dense
automated networks.

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 26

 70

60

% of operators planning to invest

50

40

30

20

10

0
By 2030 65 52 48 46 36 35 34 32 29 29
SA

ed

ks

le

ks

i se
Figure 3-3.

av
nc

sa
RA

or

or
nc

pr
N

W
5G

ge

le
tw

w
a

RA

er
Intentions to invest in key

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dv

et
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re
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technologies by 2030

r
5G

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fo

fo
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de
g

g
Se
(% of deployers planning

in
Ed

in
a-
ic

ic
lt r
Sl

Sl
to invest commercially)

U
4.3 Before deployers can think seriously about 5G Advanced or 6G roadmaps, most
Adoption need to make some fundamental decisions about the overall architecture of their
timescales for networks, and how that can support future migrations in the most effective way. As
virtualized RAN remarked above, 6G is envisaged to be a fully cloud-native and AI-native platform,
architectures but current 5G virtualized RAN technologies are not cloud-native, and have
seen fairly slow adoption levels amid uncertainty about total cost of ownership,
technology and ecosystem maturity, and the pros and cons of supporting various
Open RAN platforms.

Figures 3-4 and 3-5 show our forecast for deployment of small cells based on
architecture, in enterprise and public networks. The wide variety of architectural
variations that operators expect to support are grouped into four categories –
traditional integrated small cells in which the radio and baseband are in a single
unit; disaggregated small cells with two units (one baseband and separate radio
unit), or three units (in which, as in the O-RAN architecture, the baseband is
divided between a centralized unit and a distributed unit). The fourth architecture
is active DAS. It is worth noting that the disaggregated networks are often based
on virtualized basebands, but not always so (non-virtualized disaggregated designs
are referred to as clusters, and this centralized architecture has been a common
enterprise topology for at least a decade).

In the enterprise environment, integrated small cells will continue to grow in unit
terms until the end of 2025, and will be the largest category of cells deployed until
2026, though over the whole period, CAGR will be negative (-4.6%). The highest
growth will be in three-unit disaggregated networks, which will account for the
largest number of deployed units in 2027, supporting either the O-RAN (Split 7.x)
or SCF (Split 6) functional splits between radio unit and distributed unit.

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 27

 In total, vRAN and clusters will be more than half (51%) of deployments from
2026 but there will be continued demand for integrated small cells, which can be
simple and robust to roll out and manage. They will still account for 15% of new
deployments in 2030, while vRAN will account for 63% and DAS for 22%.

7,000 70

6,000 60

5,000 50

4,000 40
,000 RU

3,000 30

2,000 20

1,000 10

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
DAS 1,148 1,051 995 1,013 1,144 1,017 1,298 1,452 1,280
Three-unit 96 203 421 875 1,416 2,094 2,531 2,525 2,443
Figure 3-4.
Two-unit 670 746 956 1,151 1,362 1,436 1,428 1,389 1,222
Small cell deployments,
enterprise, 2022-2030, All-in-one 1,276 1,391 1,454 1,565 1,525 1,436 1,233 947 873
by architecture % vRAN or cluster 24 28 36 44 51 59 61 62 63

The picture is different in the urban and rural public network environment
(Figure 3-5). There will be a more rapid uptake of clusters and vRAN architectures,
which will account for more than half of deployments from 2025, though is is partly
because DAS plays a far less prominent role in the outdoor urban setting than it
does in enterprise networks, particularly in venues and large corporate buildings.
By 2030, vRAN will account for 71% of urban cells deployed, with growth weighted
towards three-unit architectures. These will represent 53% of cells deployed in 2030
and experience a CAGR of 32.4% across the forecast period.

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 28

 3,500 80

3,000 70

60
2,500

50
2,000

,000 RU
40
1,500
30

1,000
20

500
10

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
DAS 80 122 153 203 240 226 249 226 229

Figure 3-5. Three-unit 161 190 291 423 828 1,182 1,356 1,441 1,518
Small cell deployments, Two-unit 308 298 367 516 501 478 526 537 516
urban, 2022-2030, by All-in-one 791 746 719 700 610 629 637 622 601
architecture
% vRAN or cluster 35 36 43 51 61 66 68 70 71

4.4 A key issue in the small cell community over the past few years has been Open
Progress in RAN, and how far the gradual migration to cloud-based networks would be
small cell accompanied by support for open, interoperable platforms that would encourage
Open RAN multivendor deployments and the emergence of a widening choice of equipment
deployment vendors and component suppliers.

The small cell market has always had a more diverse supplier ecosystem than the
macro RAN because it serves a wide range of customers and roll-out scenarios,
many of them greenfield and therefore lacking the legacy ties to established vendors
and their platforms. SCF has defined and supported a series of open interfaces
that have enabled multivendor implementations from system-on-chip level up to
application programming interfaces (APIs).

The Open RAN movement has focused on two key areas that could take this
approach further into the mainstream. One is the open fronthaul specification
between the RU and baseband, to allow radios and basebands from different
vendors to be mixed and matched. Open fronthaul specs arrange the RAN Layer
1 and Layer 2 functions differently between the RU and DU, but the main options
that have seen strong uptake in the small cell world are SCF’s Split 6 and O-RAN
Alliance’s Open Fronthaul, based on Split 7.x (both splits are defined by 3GPP).

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 29

 These open fronthaul standards do not require the baseband to be virtualized
though they are frequently introduced as part of a more general migration to
vRAN. This is the second area of interest for Open RAN technology bodies such
as SCF and O-RAN Alliance, which are gradually defining or supporting specs for a
full cloud-based architecture that includes interfaces between all the hardware and
software elements plus specs for RAN control (the RAN Intelligent Controller).

Figure 3-6 summarizes our forecast for adoption of Open RAN specs, whether
fronthaul only or the broader architecture, within small cell vRANs and clusters. This
adoption will be initially faster in enterprise networks than in urban and rural ones,
which tend to require deeper interworking with largely non-open macro networks.
Enterprise Open RAN deployment will grow at a CAGR of 76.5% in unit terms,
slightly below the overall CAGR of 78%. That is because of a sharp leap in urban
Open RAN deployments after 2027, which will drive a CAGR of 82% despite a slow
start. By 2030, Open RAN will account for 88% of deployments of small cell vRANs
or clusters, though by that stage, we would expect the specifications to have evolved
considerably, and potentially to be driven by new groups of organizations.

4,000 100

90
3,500
80
3,000
70
2,500
60
,000 RU

2,000 50

40
1,500
30
1,000
20
500 10

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Figure 3-6.
Enterprise 36 95 271 576 1,153 1,930 2,692 3,103 3,410
Small cell deployments
supporting Open Urban and rural 13 34 95 224 448 768 1,222 1,374 1,605
RAN, 2022-2030, by % open RAN 4 9 18 27 39 52 67 76 88
environment (of vRAN and clusters)

Given the immaturity of Open RAN platforms and the uncertainty about their
future direction and ecosystem, it is important that deployers can keep their
options open. SCF is playing a significant role in working with partners such as
O-RAN and 3GPP, to ensure that its own specs can coexist with those of other
groups, and that members have access to flexible platforms that can support future
developments without the fear of technology dead ends. Deployers are clear that
a single functional split is unlikely to be optimal for all the varied use cases and
environments in which small cells are needed. As Figure 3-7 shows, the majority
expect to support at least two options (most commonly SCF and O-RAN).

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 30

 In the first phase of deployment, organizations that intend to support Open RAN
before the end of 2025 are most likely to support two splits (69%), though 9%
will support three options (others might be Split 2 or Split 8). After 2025, cloud-
based platforms will make it easier to support several splits in a flexible way to
optimize the network for different usage patterns, and in 2026-2028, 31% expect
to implement three or more variations.

80
70
% of deployers 60
50
40
30
20
10
Figure 3-7. 0
Number of functional One option supported 2 options 3 options
splits deployers expect
2023-2025 24 68 8
to support by 2027 (% of
deployers) 2026-2028 26 42 32

SCF 050.10.08 4. Towards 6G – technology roadmaps to 2030 31

 5. ENTERPRISE MARKETS
AND MODELS

By contrast with public macro networks, there is very limited consistency

between the requirements and usage patterns in small cell networks, so a
‘one size fits all’ approach is impossible. This applies to technology choices,
but even more critically to deployment and monetization models.

The variety of sectors and use cases that will make use of dense networks inevitably
drives diversification of the types of organization that will roll out and operate small
cell networks. Demand is coming from segments that have very different connectivity
requirements and investment models from one another. Therefore, one deployment
and ownership model will not work everywhere, and the flexibility to enable
profitability for several types of deployer is key to success for the small cell industry.

Support for the diversity of enterprise requirements entails a similar diversity in

deployer business models and monetization options. It is clear that one model
cannot possibly be optimal for every scenario from an outdoor/indoor private
network in a vast seaport, to a network supporting high-quality consumer
applications in a hotel. In each case, different stakeholders will be involved to meet
different customer requirements.

This is a central focus of SCF work, to enable platforms and ecosystems that
support commonality and economies of scale but also allow different business
models to thrive. A key goal of SCF has been to support frameworks and platforms
that enable that diversity, but based on common foundations to avoid the risk of
fragmentation. It has supported initiatives such as JOTS NHIB, and deployment
blueprints for key sectors such as automotive. These provide consistent frameworks
in which many players can operate with reduced cost and risk.

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 32

 The success of such an approach is seen in the rising percentage of enterprise small
cells that will be deployed by neutral hosts, a trend that we believe is accretive to the
total installed base (not just replacing deployment by other entities, since only neutral
hosts and shared infrastructure make small cells cost-viable in certain scenarios).

5.1 Figure 4-1 shows our forecast for enterprise small cell deployments, split by the
Enterprise main types of organizations that will roll out and operate the networks. These
deployments by fall into seven categories, though each one has multiple sub-categories, reflecting
business model the diversity of this market. Note that where enterprises are using the public
RAN, those networks are not included. MNOs will have a significant role as they
increasingly establish business units to operate enterprise networks.

The other categories are neutral hosts; direct deployment by enterprises; vertical-
specific systems integrators, which usually deploy small cells as part of multi-
technology projects; equipment vendors or hyperscalers that establish platforms to
support enterprise small cell RAN; pure-play PNOs (that are not part of a larger
MNO or telco); and ‘heavy MVNOs’, which mainly use an MNO’s host network but
deploy their own equipment in selected locations that are not well covered by the
MNO RAN.

Members of all these groups were clear, in the survey, that they will not benefit from
siloed roles. In nearly all scenarios, the business case will be enhanced or enabled by
cooperation with partners from other groups. A PNO or neutral host might pay to
use MNO spectrum, for instance, or a neutral host might deploy infrastructure on
which a network-as-a-platform provider could run. In all cases, close cooperation
with the enterprise’s own IT division will be critical to success.

As Figure 4.1 shows, we forecast 7.8% CAGR, between 2022 and 2030, in small
cells deployed for enterprise use (networks deployed separately from the public
network and spectrum, even if they are operated by MNOs). Within that base,
private network operators, including MNOs in enterprise mode, will remain the
largest deployers but neutral hosts will see the biggest growth, at 21.7% CAGR,
compared to 12.5% for pure-play PNOs, 6% for MNOs’ private units, and 10% for
heavy MVNOs.

Neutral hosts, whether small cell units of towercos and infracos, or specialist
enterprise providers, accounted for 6% of sites deployed in 2022 and this will grow
to 17% by 2030.

Direct deployment by enterprises or SIs will decline as the market expands beyond
very large companies and towards a more repeatable model to support medium-
sized businesses. However, ongoing management of the network, once deployed,
may be shared between the enterprise and the deployer especially when integration
with other corporate networks and IT platforms, including WiFi, is required, or
where network functions in a vRAN are run on the enterprise’s own cloud.

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 33

 7,000 18

6,000 16
14
5,000
12

% neutral host
4,000

,000 RU
10

3,000 8
6
2,000
4
1,000 2
0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Figure 4-1.
Small cell deployments, Enterprise Vertical market SI PNO division of telco
enterprise, 2022-2030,
Pure-play PNO Neutral host Heavy MVNO
by deployment and
operations model Vendor % neutral host

5.2 The early years of enterprise small cell deployment have been heavily driven, in
Enterprise terms of numbers, by large projects in heavy industries that have challenging data
deployments traffic and reliability requirements as well as large, multi-building sites. The largest
by vertical number of cells were deployed in the manufacturing sector in 2022, followed
by energy utilities and then by transportation hubs and various government
departments (Figure 4-2).

By 2030, manufacturing will still be the leading sector, followed by transportation,

but local government (including government-controlled smart city platforms and
public safety networks) will have leapt into third place, followed by retail.

The fastest growing sector in terms of units deployed throughout the period will be
entertainment and media, including large venues and the content creation segment,
both of which will require very dense networks and immersive experiences. CAGR
in this sector will be over 12%, followed by energy utilities (8.8%).

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 34

 6,000

5,000

4,000

,000 RU
3,000

2,000

1,000

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Small cell deployments,

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enterprise, 2022-2030, by

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vertical sector 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

5.3 Evolution and maturing of different business models is key to achieving the growth
Colocation this report forecasts, but these commercial models must be enabled and optimized
of small cells by evolution and maturing of technology. Some of these trends relate directly to the
with other small cells, such as new spectrum and Open RAN, but increasingly, enterprise small
enterprise cells need to be integrated with other enterprise infrastructure and assets, in order
assets to maximize the range and efficiency of use cases that can be supported.

As small cell RANs are cloudified, there is an emerging opportunity to converge

the network functions with the organization’s edge cloud, if all these capabilities
are deployed on-premise. Convergence of network functions with the edge cloud
(whether that is the enterprise’s own, or is deployed on-premise by a cloud provider
or operator) can enable a widened variety of operational efficiencies, including low-
latency and high-privacy processes, as well as new use cases and services that rely
on data processing closer to the user. The expected embedding of generative AI into
enterprise applications and customer interactions, and into RANs, should accelerate
the adoption of platforms that allow processing close to the end users.

Similar benefits can be derived when the small cell network is tightly integrated with
a localized, enterprise-specific packet core, and when this is also deployed, alongside
the RAN functions, on the same edge cloud.

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 35

 There are different deployment and ownership models for these converged
systems. An MNO may distribute the user plane functions of the core to enterprise
or urban sites, for instance, while a PNO could deploy a standalone core on-
premise or in the public cloud. Edge compute may support both the core and the
RAN functions, if the latter are virtualized, and may be built by the same operator
as the RAN, or a third party such as a hyperscaler. This flexibility means deployers
can select the best approach for a given scenario and maximize the efficiencies
of collocated or converged domains, and the new edge/5G use cases that can be
enabled and monetized.

Figure 4-3 shows the rising trend for small cells, in all environments, to be
collocated with core and/or edge. In 2022, 68% of small cells were not integrated
with either domain, but in 2030, that will be true of only 14%. Meanwhile there will
be a 30.4% CAGR in small cells deployed with both edge and core, reaching 32% of
the total in 2030.

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000
,000 RU

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

With neither 2,169 2,238 2,410 2,440 2,396 2,094 1,752 1,199 814
Figure 4-3.
With both 223 237 306 460 817 1,256 1,688 1,830 1,862
Small cell deployments,
enterprise, 2022-2030, With edge compute
(general purpose/apps) 334 339 421 598 810 1,017 1,233 1,199 1,105
by colocation with edge
or core With private packet core 464 577 689 1,105 1,416 1,627 1,817 2,083 2,036

This convergence of edge, RAN and core will be driven by the virtualization of the
RAN and in particular by Open RAN, which is drawing cloud providers such as
hyperscalers more deeply into the mobile networks space, and which encourages
deployment of network functions on open or third party cloud infrastructure rather
than in closed vendor stacks.

The opening up of the RAN, together with the convergence with edge cloud and
AI, will not only enable new services and monetization options, but will help to
encourage growth of some of the non-traditional deployment and operating models
described in Section 4-1. For instance, Open RAN architectures that are converged
with edge cloud lend themselves to shared or neutral host models in which
resources can be allocated to different service providers, enterprises or applications
in a flexible way, and different tenants can create distinct service profiles while using

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 36

 common infrastructure. For this reason, the rise in non-MNO small cell models,
most markedly neutral host, will be more pronounced in Open RAN environments
than in the market in general. As figure 4-4 shows, neutral hosts accounted for 22%
of Open RAN cells in 2022 and this will rise to 41% in 2030, whereas across all
enterprise small cell networks, the figures were 6% and 17% respectively. The CAGR
in neutral host deployments of Open RAN small cells will be 92.6%, compared to
22% in enterprise networks overall.

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500
,000 RU

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Figure 4-4. 0
607 742 728 783 709 780 714 757 756
Small cell deployments, Neutral host 206 251 321 471 654 734 863 946 989
total supporting Open
Pure-play PNO 500 534 642 814 1,128 1,241 1,417 1,451 1,280
RAN, 2022-2030, by
business model PNO division of telco 588 596 677 814 926 1,017 1,103 1,010 931

SCF 050.10.08 5. Enterprise markets and models 37

 6. URBAN MARKETS AND MODELS

The diversification of the small cell deployment and operations models

is less dramatic in the public networks than in enterprise, since most
public and urban densification projects are still closely tied to MNO macro
network interaction and to MNO spectrum. As Figure 5-1 shows, the MNOs
accounted for 75% of small cell deployments in this environment in 2022 and
although this figure will fall to 57% in 2030, that reflects a far less diversified
value chain than in enterprise segments.

However, given that the total urban market will grow by 10% CAGR in the period,
that means there will be almost 900,000 more small cells deployed by non-MNOs
in urban public networks in 2030, than in 2022. That is a significant opportunity for
other business models.

6.1 There are fewer significant deployer groups than in the enterprise space and we
Urban have categorized networks in four non-MNO business models – heavy MVNOs,
deployments by which are typically building small amounts of their own equipment at the edge
business model of their footprint to support particularly lucrative or traffic-heavy user groups;
PNOs; neutral hosts; and direct deployment by a city authority or its enterprise
or SI partners.

To an even greater extent than in enterprises, multiple groups are likely to work
together to support urban public usage because there will be interaction between
different networks (local private networks, city-run WiFi, municipal IoT platforms,
MNO small cells and so on), as well as interaction with the owners of underlying
infrastructure, which could include the municipality, infracos, advertising companies,
transport operators and domestic or commercial property owners.

SCF 050.10.08 6. Urban markets and models 38

 The highest CAGR will be seen in the neutral host category, at 29%, which translates
into a 28% share of small cell deployments by 2030, up from 8% in 2022. That will
make neutral hosts the second largest group of deployers in urban settings after
MNOs, with PNOs playing a far smaller role than in the enterprise market.

3,500 30

3,000 25
2,500
20
2,000
,000 RU 15
1,500
10
1,000

500 5

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Enterprise or city 40 27 31 37 44 75 111 85 57
Figure 5-1. Heavy MVNO 67 54 46 92 109 126 138 141 115
Small cell deployments, Neutral host 107 149 214 313 414 528 637 707 802
urban and public, 2022- Private operator 121 109 138 147 196 226 249 254 258
2030, by deployment
MNO 1,006 1,017 1,102 1,252 1,416 1,559 1,633 1,639 1,632
model
% neutral host 8 11 14 17 19 21 23 25 28

6.2 As in the enterprise space, there will be increasing integration between small cells
Colocation of and localized packet cores and edge cloud nodes, to support operating efficiencies;
small cells with improved quality of experience for low-latency applications; new services and user
edge and core experiences; and improved data sovereignty and privacy.

Whereas enterprise networks often have self-contained packet cores, in public

urban networks the primary mobile core will be in use, but increasingly, operators
are looking to distribute user plane functions far close to end users, especially for
time-critical applications such as intelligent transport. There may also be some
standalone, small cores deployed to handle particularly sensitive data in a hybrid
public/private manner (for public safety applications within the city, for instance).

SCF 050.10.08 6. Urban markets and models 39

 Figure 5-2 shows that, by 2030, the percentage of small cells that are collocated with
a distributed packet core and with general purpose edge compute will be 31%, up
from just 2% in 2022. This is similar to the enterprise level of 32% in 2030, though
in the enterprise world, only 14% of cells will be converged with neither edge nor
core in 2030, whereas in the urban space this figure will be 33%. That is because
there will be a lower adoption of small cell vRAN on edge nodes that also support
general purpose applications, than in enterprises – overall, there will be less dense
deployment of edge cloud close to users in the largely outdoor city environment
than in businesses. However, this convergence provides an opportunity for neutral
hosts and infracos to support cloud and network platforms for operators and other
city stakeholders, in a holistic way.

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000
,000 RU

1,500

1,000

500

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
With neither 1,207 1,126 1,102 1,123 1,089 1,056 1,024 1,017 945
Figure 5-2.
Small cell deployments, With both 27 54 122 276 479 629 747 820 888
urban and public, 2022- With edge compute
67 109 138 258 283 402 443 452 487
2030, by collocation with (general purpose/apps)
edge and/or core With distributed packet core/UPF 40 54 153 239 370 453 554 537 544

SCF 050.10.08 6. Urban markets and models 40

 7. SPECTRUM TRENDS

As this report has highlighted, small cell deployments are driven by a wide
diversity of enterprise and consumer needs, and those translate into rising
diversity in architecture, operating model and network capabilities. The
same trend also impacts on spectrum trends and usage, with increasing
variety of frequency bands and operating modes coming into play. The
same is true of macro networks, but they come with a higher risk of
fragmentation if too many spectrum bands and modes are employed at once.

7.1 Small cell innovators and regulators have been forced to be creative in spectrum
Small cell terms, since the primary midband 4G and 5G frequencies have generally been
spectrum is acquired by MNOs and reserved mainly for the macro RANs. But the small
diversifying cell ecosystem is well-placed to take advantage of a wide variety of bands since
rapidly networks are localized and so differences in band plans are less significant than for
national or international footprints. The downside of this flexibility, the potential for
fragmentation in equipment and devices and consequent high costs, is being steadily
addressed by software-defined radios and by agile antennas that can accommodate a
wide range of frequencies in a single unit.

The result is that more and more small cell networks will be deployed in spectrum
bands, such as very high frequencies, whose propagation characteristics are non-
ideal for macrocells; or in bands where is insufficient bandwidth available to support
macro RAN traffic because of incumbent users. In addition, more small cells will be
wholly or partially deployed in shared or unlicensed spectrum, or in frequencies that
are owned by non-MNO investors such as enterprises or neutral hosts. There are
often strict power limits imposed on shared spectrum, especially indoors, and so
low-power small cells are essential.

SCF 050.10.08 7. Spectrum trends 41

 Regulators are increasingly likely to support allocations of spectrum for shared or
enterprise usage, or for dense and local networks, on the basis that this will help
achieve increased choice of providers and services for customers, and will also help
with government digital transformation goals.

Figure 6-1 provides our forecast for deployment of small cells, split between sub-7
GHz bands versus millimeter wave (and, towards 6G, centimeter wave between 7
GHz and 15 GHz); and also split between licensed and unlicensed/shared spectrum
usage. Fully unlicensed usage, as seen in 2.4 GHz and most 5 GHz WiFi, is unlikely
to play a major role in cellular networks because of quality of service concerns, so
a more common model will be sharing schemes, such as the USA’s CBRS general
authorized access, which include a spectrum access system that can allocate available
channels to requesting users on a dynamic, on-demand basis.

Licensing schemes are also becoming more diverse than in the past, with light
licensing arrangements, as well as licences that come with shorter lifetimes or small
geographies, to reduce cost and to suit localized deployments of small cells. An
important development is seen in spectrum access systems that allow independent
operators to use an incumbent’s spectrum when that is not in active use by the
primary owner (the incumbent may be a non-telco, as in CBRS, or an MNO, as in
the UK’s sharing plan).

7.2 All this innovation leads to a picture like the one below, in which 58% of small
Growth in cells are deployed in shared spectrum by 2030, up from 31% in 2022 (and that
mmWave earlier figures was heavily weighted to CBRS, whereas by 2030 there will be sharing
and shared schemes in most major economies except China). There will also be rising use of
spectrum high frequency spectrum – millimeter wave bands accounted for only 6% of small
deployments cells deployed in 2022, but this will rise to 27% by 2030.

Deployments of small cells in mmWave spectrum will grow at a CAGR of almost

30% in 2022-2030, and shared spectrum deployments at a CAGR of 20.4%,
reflecting the entry of non-MNOs into the ecosystem and the increasing recognition
by regulators that open spectrum can accelerate availability of a wide variety of
connectivity options and digital applications.

SCF 050.10.08 7. Spectrum trends 42

 12,000 70

10,000 60

50
8,000

% of RUs
40

,000 RU
6,000
30
4,000
20
2,000 10

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Licensed sub-7 GHz Licensed mmWave

Figure 6-1. Shared sub-7 GHz Shared mmWave
Small cell deployments,
Shared sub-7 GHz % in mmWave
global, 2022-2030, by
spectrum range and type % in shared spectrum

As seen in Chapter 3-2, the deployer survey indicated that new spectrum, including
mmWave and shared frequencies, was the second most significant enabler of new
business models and monetization after cloudification. Introduction of new spectrum
bands naturally goes hand-in-hand with new radio technologies and we expect the
rising adoption of 5G SA and 5G Advanced to spur further interest in the use of
mmWave, dynamic access and future centimeter wave allocations.

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500
,000 RU

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Figure 6-2. 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Annual deployments
5G/4G combined BTS 17 64 184 268 271 200 34 36 37
of small cells in shared
LTE or 3G/4G 815 828 826 963 993 916 619 322 147
spectrum, 2021-2028, by
radio technology 5G NR Standalone 0 28 138 347 993 1,745 2,783 3,222 3,486

Figure 6-2 shows the expected patterns of adoption of shared spectrum by radio
generation and indicates a clear alignment between 5G upgrades and increased use
of spectrum sharing. There will be a sharp leap in deployments in shared bands from
2026, which is when we expect 5G SA to gain real momentum at last and for 5G
Advanced deployments to gather pace. At this stage, the 3GPP standards for 5G NR
in shared spectrum, which were finalized in 2023, will be gaining maturity of adoption
in equipment and devices, to an extent that was not seen in 4G shared spectrum.

SCF 050.10.08 7. Spectrum trends 43

 The impact on innovative spectrum schemes will be a result of the need to support
many new use cases in order to justify 5G upgrades, which will lead licence holders
to seek affordable capacity expansion, while many alternative operators will enter
the market to address the demand for increasingly diverse services and experiences.

SCF has been engaged in important projects to study FR2 specifications for high-
band spectrum. So far, outside of the USA and Japan, there has been limited use
of mmWave bands for commercial 5G but this will change as midbands become
congested in certain locations and as user experiences become increasingly
immersive for work and leisure. Deployment in mmWave will further expand the
diversity of environments and applications that small cells can support, and SCF
work is important to ensure this is done in a consistent, scalable way.

High-frequency spectrum is particularly important in driving and enabling new

business models because of its very high capacities, and its unsuitability for
conventional macrocell or public 5G use cases. Instead it lends itself to new use
cases that might not be easily supported by midband spectrum, and which may be
monetized by non-traditional operators.

Figure 6-3 shows that, by 2030, we forecast only 20% of small cells deployed in
mmWave spectrum will be established MNOs, down from one-third in 2022. The
rest will be rolled out and operated by other groups that can take advantage of
the relatively low-cost and accessible bands, with their very high capacity, to support
new user experiences and services. Almost 40% of mmWave small cells will be in
shared spectrum in 2030, while 26% will be supported by neutral hosts.

3,000

Enterprise direct
2,500
Private cellular operator
shared spectrum
2,000
Private network operator
licensed
,000 RU

1,500 Neutral host shared

spectrum

1,000 Neutral host licensed

Heavy MVNO
Figure 6-3. 500
Annual deployments of New MNO
small cells in millimeter
Established MNO
wave spectrum, 2021- 0
2028, by deployment
22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

model

SCF 050.10.08 7. Spectrum trends 44

 8. CONCLUSION

All the trends outlined in this report can be viewed in more detail in the
accompanying Excel data file, which includes all the figures behind the
forecasts. These trends will, taken together, help to lower the barriers that
still stand in the way of at-scale deployment in many markets and scenarios,
and they will also inject new confidence and innovation into the ecosystem
as increasingly dense networks become a central part of all 5G, and future
6G, networks.

Evolution of technologies – in the network and in enabling platforms such as cloud,

zero-trust security, open APIs, and AI – will help to enable new use cases and service
models but these opportunities will only be fully realized by a very broad ecosystem
of operators, vendors, enterprise partners and channels, which must cooperate to
align the technical capabilities with the real needs of enterprises and consumers, and
to support a growing diversity of business models to suit any scenario.

The work of SCF will be critical in coordinating the work of vendors and component
makers in evolving the solutions on offer, so that they are aligned with customer
requirements and are based on common foundations. Those foundations will
themselves be enriched by work to address gaps in 3GPP specifications in order
to ensure that every function in a full small cell network can be designed and
implemented in a standard way. That work will avoid fragmentation and unlock the
5G small cell market, especially in enterprise and in-building scenarios.

These efforts are laying the foundations for a new generation of fully cloud/AI-based
platforms, and a world in which the boundaries between small and macro cells
become irrelevant as all kinds of connectivity and cloud infrastructure converge to
support a vast range of future services and experiences.

SCF 050.10.08 8. Conclusion 45