UNIT III \dvanced Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Knowledge Representation Issues ‘onmonotonic Reasoning, Other Knowledge Representation Schemes -asoning Under Uncertainty: Basic probability, Acting Under Uncertainty, Bayes’ Rule, Representin, ‘nowledge in an Uncertain Domain, Bayesian Networks What is Knowledge? Knowledge is an useful term to judge the understanding of an individual on a given subject. In intelligent systems, domain is the main focused subject area. So, the system specifically focuses on acquiring the domain knowledge. What is knowledge representation? Humans are best at understanding, reasoning, and interpreting knowledge. Human knows things, which is knowledge and as per their knowledge they perform various actions in the real world. But how machines do all these things comes under knowledge representation and reasoning ‘What to Represent: Following are the kind of knowledge which needs to be represented in Al systems: Object: All the facts about objects in our world domain. E.g., Guitars contains strings, trumpets are brass instruments. Events: Events are the actions which occur in our world. Performance: It describes behavior which involves knowledge about how to do things. Meta-knowledge: It is knowledge about what we know. Facts: Facts are the truths about the real world and what we represent. Knowledge-Base: The central component of the knowledge-based agents is the knowledge base. It is represented as KB. The Knowledgebase is a group of the Sentences (Here, sentences are used as a technical term and not identical with the English language). Reasoning in Artificial intelligence ‘The reasoning is the mental process of deriving logical conclusion and making predictions from available knowledge, facts, and beliefs. Or we can say, "Reasoning is a way to infer facts from existing data." It is a general process of thinking rationally, to find valid conclusions. In artificial intelligence, the reasoning is essential so that the machine can also think rationally as a human brain, and can perform like a human.Types of Reasoning In artificial intelligence, reasoning can be divided into the following categories: Deductive reasoning Inductive reasoning Abductive reasoning Common Sense Reasoning Monotonic Reasoning Non-monotonic Reasoning 1, Deductive reasoning: It is the form of valid reasoning, which means the argument's conclusion must be true when the premises are true. Deductive reasoning is a type of propositional logic in Al, and it requires various rules and facts. It is sometimes referred to as top-down reasoning, and contradictory to inductive reasoning.In deductive reasoning, the truth of the premises guarantees the truth of the conclusion. Example: Premise-1: All the human eats veggies Premise-2: Sudha is human. Conclusion: Sudha eats veggies. The general process of deductive reasoning is given below: Hypothesis Be Patterns pera) 2. Inductive Reasoning: It starts with the series of specific facts or data and reaches to a general statement or conclusion. Inductive reasoning is a type of propositional logic, which is also known as bottom-up reasoning. In inductive reasoning, we use historical data for which premises support the conclusion. In inductive reasoning, premises provide probable supports to the conclusion, so the truth of premises does not guarantee the truth of the conclusion.Example: Premise: All of the pigeons we have seen in the zoo are white. Conclusion: Therefore, we can expect all the pigeons to be white. SS © & & 3. Abductive reasoning: Abductive reasoning is a form of logical reasoning which starts with single or multiple observations then seeks to find the most likely conclusion for the observation Abductive reasoning is an extension of deductive reasoning, but in abductive reasoning, the premises do not guarantee the conclusion, Example: Implication: Cricket ground is wet if it is raining Axiom: Cricket ground is wet. Conelusion:It is raining. 4. Common Sense Reasoning Common sense reasoning is an informal form of reasoning, which can be gained through experiences. Common Sense reasoning simulates the human ability to make presumptions about events which oceurs on every day. It relies on good judgment rather than exact logic and operates on heuristic knowledge and heuristic rules. Example: 1, One person can be at one place at a time. 2. If I put my hand in a fire, then it will burn. 5. Monotonic Reasoning: In monotonic reasoning, once the conclusion is taken, then it will remain the same even if we add some other information to existing information in our knowledge base. To solve monotonic problems, we can derive the valid conclusion from the available facts only, and it will not be affected by new facts. Monotonic reasoning is not useful for the real-time systems, as in real time, facts get changed, so we cannot use monotonic reasoning. Any theorem proving is an example of monotonic reasoning.Example: Earth revolves around the Sun. It is a true fact, and it cannot be changed even if we add another sentence in knowledge base like, "The moon revolves around the earth” Or "Earth is not round," ete. Advantages of Monotonic Reasonin; © In monotonic reasoning, each old proof will always remain valid. Disadvantages of Monotonic Reasoning: © We cannot represent the real world scenarios using Monotonic reasoning. © Since we can only derive conclusions from the old proofs, so new knowledge from the real world cannot be added. 6. Non-monotonic Reasoning In Non-monotonic reasoning, some conclusions may be invalidated if we add some more information or knowledge to our knowledge base. Non-monotonic reasoning deals with incomplete. "Human perceptions for various things in daily life,”is a general example of non-monotonic reasoning. Example: Let suppose the knowledge base contains the following knowledge: © Birds can fly © Penguins cannot fly © Pitty is a bird So from the above sentences, we can conclude that Pitty can fly. However, if we add one another sentence into knowledge base "Pitty is a penguin", which concludes "Pitty cannot fly’, so it invalidates the above conclusion Advantages of Non-monotonic reasoning: © For real-world systems such as Robot navigation, we can use non-monotonic reasoning. en Non-monotonic reasoning, we can choose probabilistic facts or can make assumptions. Disadvantages of Non-monotonic Reasoning: © In non-monotonic reasoning, the old facts may be invalidated by adding new sentences. It cannot be used for theorem proving.Difference between Inductive and Deductive reasoning a Pecans eet] Deductive Reasoning Deductive reasoning is the form of valid reasoning, to deduce new information or conclusion from known related facts and information. It follows a approach. top-down It starts from Premises, In _ deductive reasoning conclusion must be true if the premises are true. ‘Theory—> hypothesis patterns—confirmation. In deductive __ reasoning, arguments may be valid or invalid. Deductive reasoning reaches from general facts to specific facts. ieee Inductive Reasoning Inductive reasoning arrives at a conclusion by the process of generalization using specific facts or data. It follows a bottom-up approach. It starts from the Conclusion. In inductive reasoning, the truth of premises does not guarantee the truth of conclusions. Observations- —spatterns—hypothesisTheory. In inductive arguments may be strong, reasoning, weak or Inductive reasoning reaches from specific facts to general facts.Issues in knowledge representation The main objective of knowledge representation is to draw the conclusions from the knowledge, but there are many issues associated with the use of knowledge representation techniques. The fundamental goal of knowledge Representation is to facilitate inference (conchusions) from knowledge. Some of them are listed below: (ca Z| Average Ashwin |, Chennai Fig: Inheratable Knowledge Representation Refer to the above diagram to refer to the following issues. 1, Important attributes Any attribute of objects so basic that they occur in almost every problem domain? There are two attributes shown in the diagram, instance and isa. Since these attributes support property of inheritance, they are of prime importance. 2. Relationship among attributes Any important relationship that exists among object attributed? The relationship between the attributes of an object, independent of specific Knowledge they encode, may hold properties like:Inverse — This is about consistency check, while a value is added to one attribute. The entities are related to each other in many different ways. Existence in an isa hierarchy — This is about generalization-specification, like, classes of objects and specialized subsets of those classes, there are attributes and specialization of attributes. For example, the attribute height is a specialization of general attribute physical-size which is, in turn, a specialization of physical-attribute. These generalization-specialization relationships are important for attributes because they support inheritance. Technique for reasoning about values — This is about reasoning values of attributes not given explicitly. Several kinds of information are used in reasoning, like, height: must be in a unit of length, Age: of a person cannot be greater than the age of person’s parents. The values are often specified when a knowledge base is created. Single valued attributes — This is about a specific attribute that is guaranteed to take a unique value. For example, a baseball player can at time have only a single height and be a member of only one team. KR systems take different approaches to provide support for single valued attributes, Basically, the attributes used to describe objects are nothing but the entities. However, the attributes of an object do not depend on the encoded specific knowledge. 3. Choosing the granularity of representation At what level of detail should the knowledge be represented? While deciding the granularity of representation, it is necessary to know the following: i, What are the primitives and at what level should the knowledge be represented? ii, What should be the number (small or large) of low-level primitives or high-level facts? High-level facts may be insufficient to draw the conclusion while Low-level primitives may require a lot of storage. For example: Suppose that we are interested in following facts: Now, this could be represented as [Spotted [azent (USL) Object (AIR Such a representation can make it easy to answer questions such as: Who spotted Alex? Suppose we want to know:"Did John see Sue?” Given only one fact, user cannot discover that answer. Hence, the user can add other facts, such as "Spotted (x, y) — saw (x, y)"4. Representing sets of objects. How should sets of objects be represented? There are some properties of objects which satisfy the condition of a set together but not as individual; Example: Consider the assertion made in the sentences: “There are more sheep than people in Australia’, and "English speakers can be found all over the world.” ‘These facts can be described by including an assertion to the sets representing people, sheep, and English. 5. Finding the right structure as needed Given a large amount of knowledge stored in a database, how can relevant parts are accessed when they are needed? To describe a particular situation, it is always important to find the access of right structure. This can be done by selecting an initial structure and then revising the choice. While selecting and reversing the right structure, it is necessary to solve following problem statements. While doing so, it is necessary to solve following problems: + How to perform an initial selection of the most appropriate structure + How to fill in appropriate details from the current situations. + How to find a better structure if the one chosen initially turns out not to be appropriate. + What to do if none of the available structures is appropriate. + When to create and remember a new structure. ‘They include the process on how to: + Select an initial appropriate structure. + Fill the necessary details from the current situations. + Determine a better structure if the initially selected structure is not appropriate to fulfill other conditions. + Find the solution if none of the available structures is appropriate. + Create and remember a new structure for the given condition. + There is no specific way to solve these problems, but some of the effective knowledge representation techniques have the potential to solve them.Introduction to Nonmonotonic Reasoning The definite clause logic is monotonic in the sense that anything that could be concluded beforea clause is added can still be concluded after it is added; adding knowledge does not reduce theset of propositions that can be derived. Logic is non-monotonic if some conclusions can be invalidated by adding more knowledge. The logic of definite clauses with negation as failure is non-monotonic. Non- monotonicreasoning is useful for representing defaults. A default is a rule that can be used unless itoverridden by an exception. For example, to say that b is normally true if c is true, a knowledge base designer can write a rule of the form bc Aaba. where aba is an atom that means abnormal with respect to some aspect a. Given c, the agent caninfer bunless it is told aba. Adding aba to the knowledge base can prevent the conclusion of b. Rules that imply abacan be used to prevent the default under the conditions of the body of therule. Example: Suppose the purchasing agent is investigating purchasing holidays. A resort maybe adjacent to a beach or away from a beach. This is not symmetric; if the resort was adjacent toa beach, the knowledge provider would specify this. Thus, it is reasonable to have the clauseaway_from_beach — ~ on_beach. This clause enables an agent to infer that a resort is away from the beach if the agent is not told itis adjacent to a beach.A cooperative system tries to not mislead. If we are told the resort is on the beach, we wouldexpect that resort users would have access to the beach. If they have access to a beach, we wouldexpect them to be able to swim at the beach. Thus, we would expect the following defaults: beach_access «-on_beach A ~ abbeach_access. swim_at_beach «beach access A ~ abswim_at_beach. A cooperative system would tell us if a resort on the beach has no beach access or if there is noswimming, We could also specify that, if there is an enclosed bay and a big city, then there is noswimming, by default: abswim_at_beach <-enclosed_bay Abig_city A ~ abno_swimming_near_city. We could say that British Columbia is abnormal with respect to swimming near cities: abno_swimming_near_city —in_BC A ~ abBC_beaches.Given only the preceding rules, an agent infers away_from_beach. If it is then told on_beach, itcan no longer infer away_from_beach, but it can now infer beach_access and swim_at_beach. Ifit is also told enclosed_bay and big city, it can no longer infer swim_at_beach. However, if it isthen told in_BC, it can then infer swim_at_beach. By having defaults of what is normal, a user can interact with the system by telling it what isabnormal, which allows for economy in communication. The user does not have to state theobvious. One way to think about non-monotonic reasoning is in terms of arguments. The rules can beused as components of arguments, in which the negated abnormality gives a way to underminearguments. Note that, in the language presented, only positive arguments exist that can beundermined. In more general theories, there can be positive and negative arguments that attackeach other. Knowledge Representation Schemes A number of knowledge representation schemes (or formalisms) have been used to represent the knowledge of humans in a systematic manner. This knowledge is represented in a knowledge base such that it can be retrieved for solving problems. Amongstthe well-established knowledge representation schemes are: Production Rules Semantic Networks Frames Conceptual Dependency Grammar Conceptual Graphs Ontology Predicate and Modal Logie Conceptual or Terminological Logics XML / RDF Knowledge Representation Schemes There are four types of Knowledge representation: Relational Inheritable Inferential Declarative/ Procedural.Jo Relational Knowledg. litprovides a framework to compare two objects based on equivalent attributes. Any instance in which two different objects are compared is a relational type of knowledge. Ithis knowledge associates elements of one domain with another domain. Relational knowledge is made up of objects consisting of attributes and their lcorresponding associated values. [The results of this knowledge type is a mapping of elements among different domains. he table below shows a simple way to store facts. ‘The facts about a set of objects are put systematically in columns. - ‘This representation provides little opportunity for inference. Table - Simple Relational Knowledge iven the facts it is not possible to answer simple question such as: Who is the heaviest player ?". but if a procedure for finding heaviest player is provided, then these facts will enable {that procedure to compute an answer. Ht We can ask things like who "bats ~ left" and "throws ~ right’ Jo Inheritable Knowledge it is obtained from associated objects. It prescribes a structure in which new objects are created which may inherit attributes from their parents or a subsct of attributes from existing objects. HHere the knowledge elements inherit attributes from their parents, but in many cases Inot all attributes of the parent elements be prescribed to the child elements. he knowledge embodied in the design hierarchies found in the functional, physical Jand process domains. |+ Within the hierarchy, elements inherit attributes from their parents, but in many cases, notall attributes of the parent elements prescribed to the child elements.IThe inheritance is a powerful form of inference, but not adequate. The basic KR needs to be augmented with inference mechanism, The KR in hierarchical structure, shown below, is called “semantic network” . Property inheritance: The objects or elements of specific classes inherit attributes and values from more general classes. The classes are organized in a generalized hierahy. Baseball knowledge ~ isa : show class inclusion - instance : show class membership isa Person Baseball Player ‘Chicago ors Drs on Brown Dodger Fig. Inheritable knowledge representation (KR) The directed arrows represent attributes (isa, instance, team) originates at object being described and terminates at object or its value. Ihe box nodes represents objects and values of the attributes. Jo Viewing a node as a frame Example : Baseball-player isa : Adult-Male Bates : EQUAL handed Height :6.1 Batting-average : 0.252 this algorithm is simple. It describes the basic mechanism of inheritance. It does not Jsay what to do if there is more than one value of the instance or “isa” attribute. his can be applied to the example of knowledge base illustrated, in the previous slide, to derive answers to the following queries : team (Pee-Wee-Reese) = Brooklyn-Dodger batting-average(Three-Finger-Brown) = 0.106 ~ height (Pee-Wee-Reese] = 6.1 bats (Three Finger Brown) = right‘The steps to retrieve a value for an attribute of an instance object: 1, Find the object in the knowledge base 2. If there is a value for the attribute report it 3. Otherwise look for a value of an instance, if none fail 4. Also, Go to that node and find a value for the attribute and then report it 5. Otherwise, search through using is until a value is found for the attribute. Jo Inferential Knowledge it is inferred from objects through relations among objects. le.g., a word alone is a simple syntax, but with the help of other words in phrase the reader may infer more from a word; this inference within linguistic is called semantics. his knowledge generates new information from the given information. |- This new information does not require further data gathering form source but doesrequire analysis of the given information to generate new knowledge. Example: given a set of relations and values, one may infer other values / relations. lApredicate logic (a mathematical deduction) used to infer from a set of attributes. Moreover, Inference through predicate logic uses a set of logical operations to retateindividual data. + Represent knowledge as formal logic: All dogs have tails vx: dog(x) -» hastail(x) Advantages: A set of strict rules. Can use to derive more facts. Also, Truths of new statements can be verified Guaranteed correctness. Iso, Many inference procedures available to implement standard rules of logic popular jinAl systems. e.g Automated theorem proving. Example : Given a set of relations and values, one may infer other values or relations.A predicate logic (a mathematical deduction) is used to infer from a set of attributes. *. "(implication), “." (not), "Vv" ( "A" (and), "Y "(for all), "3 "(there exists). Examples of predicate logic statements 1. "Wonder" is a name of a dog : 2. All dogs belong to the class of animals : V x : dog (x) —> animal(x) 3. All animals either live on land or in wat: V x: animal(x) — live (x,land) V live (x, water)From these three statements we can infer that: " Wonder lives either on land or on water.” Note : If more information is made available about these objects and their relations, then more knowledge can be inferred. Jo Declarative Knowledge IA statement in which knowledge is specified, but the use to which that knowledge is to put is not given, lc.g. laws, people's name; these are facts which can stand alone, not dependent on lother knowledge; Here, the knowledge is based on declarative facts about axioms and domains. |- axioms are assumed to be true unless a counter example is found to invalidate them. |-domains represent the physical world. laxiom and domains thus simply exists and serve as declarative statements that can stand alone. }) Procedural Knowledge lA representation in which the control information, to use the knowledge, embedded in {the knowledge itself. For example, computer programs, directions, and recipes; these indicate specific use or implementation; Here, the knowledge is a mapping process between domains that specify “what to do when” and the representation is of “how to make it” rather than “what it is”. ‘Moreover, Knowledge encoded in some procedures, small programs that know how ito do specific things, how to proceed. Advantage: Heuristic or domain-specific knowledge can represent. ‘Moreover, Extended logical inferences, such as default reasoning facilitated. Also, Side effects of actions may model. Some rules may become false in time. Disadvantages: ‘Completeness — not all cases may represent. Consistency — not all deductions may be correct. c.g If we know that Fred is a bird we might deduce that Fred can fly. Later we might discover that Fred is an emu. Modularity sacrificed. Changes in knowledge base might have far-reaching effects. Example: A parser in a natural language has the knowledge that a noun phrase may contain articles, adjectives and nouns. It thus accordingly call routines that know how Ito process articles, adjectives and nouns.Probabilistic reasoning: Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the concept of probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic reasoning, we combine probability theory with logic to handle the uncertainty. We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to handle the uncertainty that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance. In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the certainty of something is not confirmed, such as “It will rain today,” "behavior of someone for some situations," "A match between two teams or twoplayers.” These are probable sentences for which we can assume that it will happen but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic reasoning. In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with uncertain knowledge: o Bayes’ rule o Bayesian Statistics As probabilistic reasoning uses probability and related terms, so before understanding probabilistic reasoning, let's understand some common terms: Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will occur. It is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of probability always remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal uncertainties. 1. 0=P{A)< 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A. 2. P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A. 3. P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A. We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula. Amber of decid ooo ‘Tal unber of otunes Probability of ocuren + P(A) = probability of a not happening event. © P(A) + Pa) = 1.Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is called an event, Sample space: The collection of all possible events is called sample space. Random variables: Random variables are used to represent the events and objects in the real world. Prior probability: The prior probability of an event is probability computed before observing new information, Posterior Probability: The probability that is calculated after all evidence or information has taken into account. It is a combination of prior probability and new information Conditional probability: Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another event has already happened. Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already occurred, "the probability of A under the conditions of B’, it can be written as: A Prats) = = S20. + Where P(AAB)= Joi__ a + P(B)= Marginal probability of B. If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it will be given as: PCAN) P(A) P(BIA) It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram, where B is occurred event, so sample space will be reduced to set B, and now we can only calculate event A when event B is already occurred by dividing the probability of P(AAB) by P( B ) Example:In a class, there are 70% of the students who like English and 40% of the students who likes English and mathematics, and then what is the percent of students those who like English also like mathematics? Solutio: Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics Bis an event that a student likes English. PCAAB) _ 04 _ PB) eid PAI) Hence, 57% are the students who like English also like Mathematics. Bayes' theorem: * Bayes’ theorem is also known as Bayes’ rule, Bayes’ law, or Bayesian reasoning, which determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge. In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of two random events. Bayes’ theorem was named after the _British mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian inference is an application of Bayes’ theorem, which is fundamental to Bayesian statisti It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B). Bayes’ theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by observing new information of the real world. Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes’ theorem, we can determine the probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age. Bayes’ theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of event A with known event B: As from product rule we can write: P(A A B)= P(A|B) P(B) or Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A: P(A A B)= P{BIA) P(A) Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get: Pale) = (a)‘The above equation (a) is called as Bayes’ rule or Bayes’ theorem. ‘This equation is basic of most modern Al systems for probabilistic inference. It shows the simple relationship between joint and conditional probabilities. Here, P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as Probability of hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B. P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true, then we calculate the probability of evidence. P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before considering the evidence P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence. In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) = P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes’ rule can be written as: P(Aj)*P(BIAy) PAB) = pea) (AI) = SE pean-PeIa) Where Ai, Az, Aa,..-, Anis a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Applying Bayes’ rule: Bayes’ rule allows us to compute the single term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B), P(B), and P(A). This is very useful in cases where we have a good probability of these three terms and want to determine the fourth one. Suppose we want to perceive the effect of some unknown, cause, and want to compute that cause, then the Bayes’ rule becomes: P(effect|cause) P(cause) Pletfect) P(cause|effect) =Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff neck? se meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it occurs 80% of the time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are given as follows: ‘The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000. ‘The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%. Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition that patient has meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as: 1 Pa|b) = 0.8 P(ajb)em) 98) Piel 1/3000 Mila) === 2S oon, Pla)= .02 Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has meningitis disease with a stiff neck. Example-2: Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is drawn. The probability that the card is king is 4/52, then calculate posterior probability P(King|Face), which means the drawn face card ie a Ieing card Solution: (Facelking) king) a P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13 P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13 P(Face| King): probability of face card when we assume it is a king = a Putting all values in equation (i) we will get: ey Pin face]=—F2> = 4 iia proba hata face cards aking card yApplication of Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence: Following are some applications of Bayes’ theorem: It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed step is given. Bayes’ theorem is helpful in weather forecasting. It can solve the Monty Hall problem. UNCERTAINTY To act rationally under uncertainty we must be able to evaluate how likely certain things are. With FOL a fact F is only useful if it is known to be true or false. But we need to be able to evaluate how likely it is that F is true. By weighing likelihoods of events (probabilities) we can develop mechanisms for acting rationally under uncertainty. Dental Diagnosis example. In FOL we might formulate P.symptom(P,toothache}-+ disease(p,cavity) disease(p,gumDisease} disease(p,foodStuck) When do we stop? Cannot list alll possible causes? We also want to rank the possibilities. We don’t want to start drilling for a cavity before checking for more likely causes first. = [== What is Uncertainty? © Uncertainty is essentially lack of information to formulate a decision. ° Uncertainty may result in making poor or bad decisions. ° As living creatures, we are accustomed to dealing with uncertainty — that’s how we survive. ° Dealing with uncertainty requires reasoning under uncertainty along with possessing a lot of common sense.Dealing with Uncertainty Deductive reasoning — deals with exact facts and exact conclusions * Inductive reasoning — not as strong as deductive — premises support the conclusion but do not guarantee it. There are a number of methods to pick the best solution in light of uncertainty. © When dealing with uncertainty, we may have to settle for just a good solution. What is Uncertainty? + All measurements fall between two divisions on a measuring device. + The distance between the two divisions is estimated. + This estimated value is the uncertainty and is expressed in a final recorded value. => Certain vs. Uncertain Digits * In the example below, we can see for certain that the leaf is greater than 3 units long. This is the certain digit. * How far between the 3 and 4 units is the tip of the leaf? + ls it 3.62 3.7? 3.5? * The digit in the tenths place is estimated — it is the uncertain digit.Certain vs. Uncertain Digits + Let’s report the leaf’s length at 3.7 units long. + This measurement has two significant figures — one is certain, the other is uncertain. + We cannot report the measurement as 3.70 units — we don’t have a division in tenths! + If we reported the length as 3.70 units we'd be telling the reader that our ruler was divided into tenths and the hundredths place was estimated. -_... Practice Compare the measurements of these two rulers: Practice Compare these three: What is the value? (~10.5) Estimated place? (tenths) What is the value? (~8.50) Estimated place? (hundredths) me TT What isthe value? (~11.90) ad au Estimated place? (hundredths)Why do we need reasoning under uncertainty? = There are many situations where uncertainty arises: When an insurance company offers a policy it has calculated the risk that you will claim ‘When your brain estimates what an object is it filters random noise and fills in missing details, When you play a game you cannot be certain what the other player will do A medical expert system that diagnoses disease has to deal with the results of teste that are sometimes incorrect = Systems which can reason about the effects of uncertainty should do better than those that don’t + But how should uncertainty be represented? Two (toy) examples + Ihave toothache. What is the cause? There are many possible causes of an observed event. If go to the dentist and he examines me, when the probe catches this indicates there may be a cavity, rather than another cause. The likelihood of a hypothesised cause will change as additional pieces of evidence arrive. Bob lives in San Francisco. He has a burglar alarm on his house, which can be triggered by burglars and earthquakes. He has two neighbours, John and Mary, who will call him if the alarm goes off while he is at work, but each is unreliable in their own way. All these sources of uncertainty can be quantified. Mary calls, how likely is it that there has been a burglary? Using probabilistic reasoning we can calculate how likely a hypothesised cause is. Dental Diagnosis example. In FOL we might formulate P.symptom(P,toothache) —- disease(p,cavity) disease(p,gumDi disease(p,foodStuck) When do we stop? s Cannot list all possible causes? We also want to rank the possi cavity before checking for more likely causes first.Probability Theory: Variables and Events = Arandom variable can be an observation, outcome or event the value of which is uncertain. e.g a coin. Let's use Throw as the random variable denoting the outcome when we toss the coin, The set of possible outcomes for a random variable is called its domain. The domain of Throw is {head, tail} ‘A Boolean random variable has two outcomes. Cavity has the domain {true, false} Toothache has the domain {true, false} Probability Theory: Atomic events We can create new events out of combinations of the outcomes of random variables Anatomic event is a complete specification of the values of the random variables of interest e.g. if our world consists of only two Boolean random variables, then the world has a four possible atomic events Toothache = true “ Cavit Toothache = true “ Cavity = false Toothache = false * Cavity = true Toothache = false * Cavity = false The set of all possible atomic events has two properties: + [tis mutually exhaustive (nothing else can happen) + tis mutually exclusive (only one of the four can happen at one time)Probability theory: probabilities + We can assign probabilities to the outcomes of a random variable. P(Throw = heads) = 0.5 P(Mary_Calls = true) = 0.1 Pla)=0.3 Some simple rules governing probabilities. All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive 0