Chapter 2

Kabul University
Engineering Faculty
Civil Engineering Department
Probability
Agenda
• Introduction to probability
• Sample space, Events
• Counting Sample
• Probability of an event
• Additive rules
• Venn Diagram and Applications
• Set Rules
Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 12/18/2023 2-1
 Chapter 2
Learning Objectives
After completion of this chapter, you will be able to know:
• What a sample space is
• What is an event
• How to count sample points
• Probability of an event
• Addition rules
• Conditional probability, independence, and the product rule
• Bayes’ rule

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-2

 2.1 Sample Space
Definition 2.1

The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the

sample space and is represented by the symbol S.

Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space,
or simply a sample point. If the sample space has a finite number of elements, we may
list the members separated by commas and enclosed in braces.
Thus, the sample space S, of possible outcomes when a coin is flipped, may be written

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-3

 Example 2.1:
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number
that shows on the top face, the sample space is.

In this case, S1 provides more information than S2.

In some experiments, it is helpful to list the elements of the sample space

systematically by means of a tree diagram.

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 Example 2.2:
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if
a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. To list
the elements of the sample space providing the most information, we
construct the tree diagram of Figure 2.1.

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-5

Tree diagram

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-6

 Cont’d…
Class Activity,
you have 3 minutes to perform this activity!

A fair coin is flipped thrice. Using the probability tree diagram find the
probability of getting at least two tails.

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-7

 Example 2.3:

Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing

process. Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-
defective, N. To list the elements of the sample space providing the most
information, we construct the tree diagram of Figure 2.2.

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-8

 Solution

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2-9

 Sample Space: Statement or Rule Method

Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are

best described by a statement or rule method. For example, if the
possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in the world
with a population over 1 million, our sample space is written

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 2.2 Events
Definition 2.2

An event is a subset of a sample space.

Example: the odd numbers of a tossed die

So, A is an event of Sample Space (S)

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 2.3 Complement
Definition 2.3

Example 2.6

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 2.4 Intersection
Definition 2.4
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event
containing all elements that are common to A and B.
Example 2.8:

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 2.5 Mutually exclusive or Disjoint
Definition 2.5

Example:

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 2.6 Union
Definition 2.6

Example 2.10: Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e}; then A ∪ B = {a, b, c, d, e}.

Example 2.11: Let P = {Smokers} and Q = {Alcohol Drinkers}; then P ∪ Q =

{Smokers, Alcohol Drinkers}.

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 Venn Diagrams
The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space can
be illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams. In a Venn
diagram we let the sample space be a rectangle and represent events by
circles drawn inside the rectangle. Thus, in Figure below.

A B

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 Cont’d…

Kabul University, Civil Engineering Department Lecturer: Naqibullah “Sediqi” 2 - 17

 Cont’d…

In Figure 2.4, we see that events A, B, and C are

all subsets of the sample space S. It is also clear
that event B is a subset of event A; event B ∩ C
has no elements and hence B and C are mutually
exclusive; event A ∩ C has at least one
element; and event A ∪ B = A.

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 Set Rules

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 Venn Diagram Application Example
A survey was taken at Kabul University between students about consuming
different types of energy such as Coal, Gas and Wood for heating in Winter.
A total of 120 students were surveyed with the following results:
48 sts consume coal
34 sts consume gas
52 sts consume wood
14 sts consume coal and gas
6 sts sonsume gas and wood
12 sts consume wood and coal
4 sts consume all three energy sources.
a. How many sts consume only wood
b. How many sts consume only gas
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 Venn Diagram Application Example
A group of 82 students were surveyed, and it was found that each of the students surveyed liked at
least one of the following three sports:
Football, Volleyball, and Cricket.
39 liked Football (A)
50 liked Volleyball (B)
39 liked Cricket (C)
21 liked A and B
18 liked B and C
19 liked A and C
22 liked exactly two of the following sports: Football, Volleyball, and Cricket

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 Cont’d…

a. How many sts liked football, but not volleyball or cricket? 11

b. How many sts liked Cricket, but not volleyball or football? 14

c. How many sts liked all of the following three sports: Football, Volleyball, and Cricket? 12

d. How many sts liked Football and Cricket, but not Volleyball? 7

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 Class Activity!
In pairs, you have 5 minutes to solve this Venn diagram problem

2.19 Suppose that a family is leaving on a summer vacation in their

camper and that M is the event that they will experience mechanical
problems, T is the event that they will receive a ticket for committing a
traffic violation, and V is the event that they will arrive at a campsite
with no vacancies. Referring to the Venn diagram of Figure 2.5, state
in words the events represented by the following regions:
(a) region 5;
(b) region 3;
(c) regions 1 and 2 together;
(d) regions 4 and 7 together;
(e) regions 3, 6, 7, and 8 together.
Figure 2.5 Venn diagram for Exercises
2.19 and 2.20

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 Solution

a) The family will experience mechanical problem and will not receive ticket and

will not arrive at a campsite that has no vacancies.

b) The family will receive a ticket as well as will arrive at a campsite that has no

vacancies.

c) Mechanical problems and arriving at a campsite will happen.

d) Receive ticket but will not arrive at a campsite with no vacancies.

e) Will not experience mechanical problems.

Figure 2.5 Venn diagram for
Exercises 2.19 and 2.20

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 Thanks

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