The next tab of this Excel spreadsheet contains the NFL raw data for these problems.
In the National Football League, the philosophy for winning (rushing, passing,
defense) seems to go through cycles. Consider a time series of the average
number of rushing yards in the NFL per regular season from 1980 to 2008.
1) Make a time series plot. Is there evidence that the average rushing yards is trending in
one direction? Describe the general movement of the series.
2) Fit a first order autoregressive model [AR(1)] using y(t) as the response variable
and y (t-1) as the input variable. Record the regression equation.
3) Based on the AR(1) model, forecast the average number of rushing yards in the NFL
for the 2009 regular season.
4) Calculate the exponential smoothing models using Excel damping factors 0.8 and
0.2 For each of the exponential smoothing models forecast the average number of
rushing yards in the NFL for the 2009 season.
5) Calculate a moving average model using k=5 (Excel interval). Forecast the average
number of rushing yards in the NFL for the 2009 season.
e problems.
NFL data
Year (x) Rushing yards/Game (y) Lagged Dampfact=0.8 Dampfact=0.2 k=5
1 1980 127.5 #N/A #N/A
2 1981 130.1 127.5 127.5 127.5 #N/A
3 1982 117.8 130.1 128.02 129.58 #N/A
4 1983 129.7 117.8 125.976 120.156 #N/A
5 1984 123.9 129.7 126.7208 127.7912 #N/A
6 1985 124.9 123.9 126.15664 124.67824 125.8
7 1986 118.7 124.9 125.905312 124.855648 125.28
8 1987 123.9 118.7 124.4642496 119.9311296 123
9 1988 121.4 123.9 124.35139968 123.10622592 124.22
10 1989 115.3 121.4 123.761119744 121.741245184 122.56
11 1990 113.9 115.3 122.0688957952 116.5882490368 120.84
12 1991 107.7 113.9 120.43511663616 114.4376498074 118.64
13 1992 110.5 107.7 117.888093308928 109.0475299615 116.44
14 1993 110 110.5 116.410474647142 110.2095059923 113.76
15 1994 104.3 110 115.128379717714 110.0419011985 111.48
16 1995 108.1 104.3 112.962703774171 105.4483802397 109.28
17 1996 109 108.1 111.990163019337 107.5696760479 108.12
18 1997 113 109 111.39213041547 108.7139352096 108.38
19 1998 112.7 113 111.713704332376 112.1427870419 108.88
20 1999 106.5 112.7 111.910963465901 112.5885574084 109.42
21 2000 112.6 106.5 110.82877077272 107.7177114817 109.86
22 2001 111.8 112.6 111.183016618176 111.6235422963 110.76
23 2002 116.1 111.8 111.306413294541 111.7647084593 111.32
24 2003 117.9 116.1 112.265130635633 115.2329416919 111.94
25 2004 116.6 117.9 113.392104508506 117.3665883384 112.98
26 2005 112.5 116.6 114.033683606805 116.7533176677 115
27 2006 117.3 112.5 113.726946885444 113.3506635335 114.98
28 2007 110.9 117.3 114.441557508355 116.5101327067 116.08
29 2008 114.6 110.9 113.733246006684 112.0220265413 115.04
30 113.906596805347 114.0844053083 114.38
Q1) There is a general downward trend in rushing yards per game as the years progress.
Rushing yards/Game
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Q2) SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.706835975
R Square 0.499617096
Adjusted R Square 0.4803716
Standard Error 4.794258739
Observations 28
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 596.693233051679 596.6932330517 25.96021 2.615012E-05
Residual 26 597.607838376892 22.98491686065
Total 27 1194.30107142857
