Week 9

Question
Which of the following best describes the Markov property in a Hidden Markov Model
(HMM)?
● The future state depends on the current state and the entire past sequence of
states.
● The future state depends only on the current state and is independent of the past
states, given the current state.
● The future state depends on the past states and the future states, given the current
state.
● The future state depends only on the past states and is independent of the current
state.
Question
Which of the following best describes the Markov property in a Hidden Markov Model
(HMM)?
● The future state depends on the current state and the entire past sequence of
states.
● The future state depends only on the current state and is independent of the past
states, given the current state.
● The future state depends on the past states and the future states, given the current
state.
● The future state depends only on the past states and is independent of the current
state.
Correlation Rules

● If two nodes are directly connected, they are correlated.

● X->Z->Y => Y is independent of X given Z
● X<-Z<-Y => Y can influence X, if Z is unobserved
● X<-Z->Y => X is independent of Y given Z
● X->Z<-Y => X and Y are independent, if Z is not given
Question

Consider the bayesian network shown in the Figure.

Two students - Student A and Student B make the
following claims:
● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|{ 𝐵,𝐷 })=𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)
● Student B claims 𝑃( 𝐴|𝐵 )=𝑃(𝐴)
Which of the following is true?
● Student A and Student B are correct.
● Student A is correct and Student B is incorrect.
● Student A is incorrect and Student B is correct.
● Both are incorrect.
Question

Consider the bayesian network shown in the

Figure. Two students - Student A and Student B
make the following claims:

● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|{ 𝐵,𝐷 })=𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)

○ Implies A is independent of B given D
○ False, since there is a undirected path from A to B
via C
● Student B claims 𝑃( 𝐴|𝐵 )=𝑃(𝐴)
Question

Consider the bayesian network shown in the

Figure. Two students - Student A and Student B
make the following claims:

● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|{ 𝐵,𝐷 })=𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)

○ Implies A is independent of B given D
○ False, since there is a undirected path from A to B
via C
● Student B claims 𝑃( 𝐴|𝐵 )=𝑃(𝐴)
○ Implies A and B are conditionally independent
○ True since C is not given
Question

Consider the bayesian network shown in the Figure.

Two students - Student A and Student B make the
following claims:
● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|{ 𝐵,𝐷 })=𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)
● Student B claims 𝑃( 𝐴|𝐵 )=𝑃(𝐴)
Which of the following is true?
● Student A and Student B are correct.
● Student A is correct and Student B is incorrect.
● Student A is incorrect and Student B is correct.
● Both are incorrect.
Question
Consider the Markov network shown below in the Figure.
Two students - Student A and Student B make the
following claims:

● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)

● Student B claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵,𝐶)=𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)

Which of the following is true?

● Student A and Student B are correct.

● Student A is incorrect and Student B is correct.
● Student A is correct and Student B is incorrect.
● Both are incorrect.
● Insufficient information to make any conclusion.
Question

Consider the Markov network shown below in

the Figure. Two students - Student A and Student
B make the following claims:

● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)

○ There exists a path from A to B via C
○ They are not independent
● Student B claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵,𝐶)=𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)
Question

Consider the Markov network shown below in

the Figure. Two students - Student A and Student
B make the following claims:

● Student A claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)

○ There exists a path from A to B via C
○ They are not independent
● Student B claims 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵,𝐶)=𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)
○ Implies A and B independent given C
○ True, since C blocks the path from A to B
Question

Consider the following graphical model, which

of the following are true about the model?

(MSQ)

● d is independent of b when c is known

● a is independent of c when e is known
● a is independent of b when e is known
● a is independent of b when c is known
Question

Consider the following graphical model, which

of the following are true about the model?

(MSQ)

● d is independent of b when c is known

● a is independent of c when e is known
● a is independent of b when e is known
● a is independent of b when c is known
Question

Consider the following graphical model, which

of the following are true about the model?

(MSQ)

● d is independent of b when c is known

● a is independent of c when e is known
● a is independent of b when e is known
● a is independent of b when c is known
Question

Consider the following graphical model, which

of the following are true about the model?

(MSQ)

● d is independent of b when c is known

● a is independent of c when e is known
● a is independent of b when e is known
● a is independent of b when c is known
Question

Consider the following graphical model, which

of the following are true about the model?

(MSQ)

● d is independent of b when c is known

● a is independent of c when e is known
● a is independent of b when e is known
● a is independent of b when c is known
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given B? Select all that apply.

● C, D
● D, E
● E, C
● A, F
● None of the above
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given B? Select all that apply.

● C, D
● D, E
● E, C
● A, F
● None of the above
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given B? Select all that apply.

● C, D
● D, E
● E, C
● A, F
● None of the above
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given B? Select all that apply.

● C, D
● D, E
● E, C
● A, F
● None of the above
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given B? Select all that apply.

● C, D
● D, E
● E, C
● A, F
● None of the above
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given a single other node (may be different for different pairs)? Select
all that apply.

● 3, 2
● 0, 4
● 2, 5
● 1, 5
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given a single other node (may be different for different pairs)? Select
all that apply.

● 3, 2
● 0, 4
● 2, 5
● 1, 5
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given a single other node (may be different for different pairs)? Select
all that apply.

● 3, 2
● 0, 4
● 2, 5
● 1, 5
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given a single other node (may be different for different pairs)? Select
all that apply.

● 3, 2
● 0, 4
● 2, 5
● 1, 5
Question

In the undirected graph given below, which nodes are conditionally independent of
each other given a single other node (may be different for different pairs)? Select
all that apply.

● 3, 2
● 0, 4
● 2, 5
● 1, 5
Question

A spam filtering system has a probability of 0.95 to classify correctly a mail as

spam and 0.10 probability of giving false positives .It is estimated that 1% of the
mails are actual spam mails

Suppose that the system is now given a new mail to be classified as

spam/not-spam, what is the probability that the mail will be classified as spam?
Question
A spam filtering system has a probability of 0.95 to classify correctly a mail as spam and 0.10
probability of giving false positives .It is estimated that 1% of the mails are actual spam mails

Suppose that the system is now given a new mail to be classified as spam/not-spam, what is the
probability that the mail will be classified as spam?

S = Predicted Spam, M = Actual Spam

P(S|M)= 0.95 , P(S|M’) = 0.10 , P(M) = 0.01

Question
A spam filtering system has a probability of 0.95 to classify correctly a mail as spam and 0.10
probability of giving false positives .It is estimated that 1% of the mails are actual spam mails

Suppose that the system is now given a new mail to be classified as spam/not-spam, what is the
probability that the mail will be classified as spam?

S = Predicted Spam, M = Actual Spam

P(S|M)= 0.95 , P(S|M’) = 0.10 , P(M) = 0.01

P(S) = P(S|M)*P(M) +P(S|M')* P(M') = 0.95 * 0.01 + 0.10 * 0.99 = 0.1085

Question

Consider the following Bayesian network:

Find P(C).
Question

Consider the following Bayesian network:

Find P(C)

= 0.8 * 0.1 + 0.3 * 0.9

= 0.08 + 0.27

= 0.35
Question

Consider the following Bayesian network:

Find P(F|C).
Question

Consider the following Bayesian network:

Find P(F|C).

= ( 0.8 * 0.1 ) / (0.8 * 0.1 + 0.3 * 0.9)

= 0.08 / (0.08 + 0.27) = 0.22857142857

Question
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are modeled
as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) .
P(R) = 0.1
P(S) = 0.2
P(W | R, S) = 0.8
P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7
P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6
P(W | ¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5
Calculate P(S | W, R).
Question
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are
modeled as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) .

P(R) = 0.1, P(S) = 0.2 , P(W | R, S) = 0.8, P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7, P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6, P(W |
¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5 Calculate P(S | W, R).
Question
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are
modeled as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) .

P(R) = 0.1, P(S) = 0.2 , P(W | R, S) = 0.8, P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7, P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6, P(W |
¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5 Calculate P(S | W, R).
Question
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are
modeled as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) .

P(R) = 0.1, P(S) = 0.2 , P(W | R, S) = 0.8, P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7, P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6, P(W |
¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5 Calculate P(S | W, R).
Question
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are
modeled as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) .

P(R) = 0.1, P(S) = 0.2 , P(W | R, S) = 0.8, P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7, P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6, P(W |
¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5 Calculate P(S | W, R).

= 0.22222
Question

The random variables are modeled as discrete

variables and the corresponding CPDs are as below.

What is the probability of P(i=1,d=0,g=2,s=1,l=0)?

Question

The random variables are modeled as discrete

variables and the corresponding CPDs are as below.

What is the probability of P(i=1,d=0,g=2,s=1,l=0)?

P(d=0) * P(i=1) * P(g=2 | d=0, i=1) * P(l=0 | g=2) *
P(s=1 | i=1)
Question

The random variables are modeled as discrete

variables and the corresponding CPDs are as below.

What is the probability of P(i=1,d=0,g=2,s=1,l=0)?

P(d=0) * P(i=1) * P(g=2 | d=0, i=1) *P(s=1 | i=1) *
P(l=0 | g=2)
= 0.6 * 0.4 * 0.08 * 0.8 * 0.4 = 0.006144
Question

Which of the following variables are not

in Markov blanket of “4”?
● 1
● 2
● 3
● 4
● 5
● 6
● 7
● 8
Question

Which of the following variables are not

in Markov blanket of “4”?
● 1
● 2
● 3
● 4
● 5
● 6
● 7
● 8
Question
Which of the following will have no effect on H,
given markov blanket of H?
● A
● B
● C
● D
● E
● F
● G
● H
● I
● J
Question
Which of the following will have no effect on H,
given markov blanket of H?
● A
● B
● C
● D
● E
● F
● G
● H
● I
● J
Question

Joint probability distribution for all the variables in the above network :

● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4
|D3)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4 |D3)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(D1|S1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4
|D3)
Question

Joint probability distribution for all the variables in the above network :

● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4
|D3)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(S2 |D1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4 |D3)
● P(D1,D2,D3,S1,S2,S3,S4) = P(D1) P(D2) P(D3) P(S1 |D1) P(D1|S1,D2) P(S3 |D1,D3) P(S4
|D3)