Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Great Lakes Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijglr

Review

Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation

of the world’s large lakes
Jean-Philippe Jenny a,⇑, Orlane Anneville a, Fabien Arnaud b, Yoann Baulaz a, Damien Bouffard c,
Isabelle Domaizon a, Serghei A. Bocaniov d, Nathalie Chèvre e, Maria Dittrich f, Jean-Marcel Dorioz a,
Erin S. Dunlop g, Gaël Dur h, Jean Guillard a, Thibault Guinaldo i, Stéphan Jacquet a, Aurélien Jamoneau j,
Zobia Jawed k, Erik Jeppesen l,m, Gail Krantzberg k, John Lenters n,o, Barbara Leoni p, Michel Meybeck q,
Veronica Nava p, Tiina Nõges r, Peeter Nõges r, Martina Patelli p, Victoria Pebbles s, Marie-Elodie Perga e,
Serena Rasconi a, Carl R. Ruetz III t, Lars Rudstam u, Nico Salmaso v, Sharma Sapna w, Dietmar Straile x,
Olga Tammeorg r,y, Michael R. Twiss z, Donald G. Uzarski aa, Anne-Mari Ventelä ab, Warwick F. Vincent ac,
Steven W. Wilhelm ad, Sten-Åke Wängberg ae, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer af
a
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, France
b
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, EDYTEM, 73100 Chambéry, France
c
Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Surface Waters – Research and Management, Kastanienbaum 6047, Switzerland
d
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L3G1, Canada
e
IDYST, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
f
University of Toronto Scarborough, Physical and Environmental Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada
g
Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Peterborough, Ontario K0L2G0, Canada
h
Creative Science Course (Geosciences), Faculty of Science, Shizuoka University, Japan
i
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 42, avenue Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse, France
j
INRAE, UR EABX, 50 avenue de Verdun, Cestas, France
k
McMaster University, W. Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology, Hamilton, ON, Canada
l
Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark
m
Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences and Centre for Ecosystem Research and Implementation, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
n
Great Lakes Research Center, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI USA
o
Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 3110 Trout Lake Station Drive, Boulder Junction, WI USA
p
University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Piazza della Scienza 1, Milan, Italy
q
METIS (UPMC/CNRS/EPHE), UMR 7619, Sorbonne-universitée, 4, place de Jussieu, Paris Cedex, France
r
Centre for Limnology, Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 5, 510006 Tartu, Estonia
s
Great Lakes Commission, 1300 Victors Way, Suite 1350, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
t
Grand Valley State University, Annis Water Resources Institute, 740 W. Shoreline Drive, Muskegon, MI, USA
u
Cornell Biological Field Station, Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA
v
Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all’Adige, Italy
w
Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
x
Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, Mainaustr. 252, 78464 Konstanz, Germany
y
Ecosystems and Environmental Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Viikinkaari 1, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
z
Department of Biology, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, USA
aa
Central Michigan University, Institute for GreatLakes Research and CMU Biological Station, Mt. Pleasant, USA
ab
Department of Aquatic Environment, Pyhäjärvi Institute, Eura, Finland
ac
Département de Biologie, Takuvik & Centre for Northern Studies (CEN), Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada
ad
Department of Microbiology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
ae
University of Gothenburg, Marine Sciences, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22, Gothenburg, Sweden
af
Department of Ecology and Genetics/Limnology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18D, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Large lakes of the world are habitats for diverse species, including endemic taxa, and are valuable
Received 27 May 2019 resources that provide humanity with many ecosystem services. They are also sentinels of global and
Accepted 12 May 2020 local change, and recent studies in limnology and paleolimnology have demonstrated disturbing evidence
Available online xxxx
of their collective degradation in terms of depletion of resources (water and food), rapid warming and
Communicated by Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
loss of ice, destruction of habitats and ecosystems, loss of species, and accelerating pollution. Large lakes

⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (J.-P. Jenny).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
0380-1330/Ó 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Great Lakes Research.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
2 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

are particularly exposed to anthropogenic and climatic stressors. The Second Warning to Humanity pro-
vides a framework to assess the dangers now threatening the world’s large lake ecosystems and to eval-
uate pathways of sustainable development that are more respectful of their ongoing provision of services.
Keywords:
Here we review current and emerging threats to the large lakes of the world, including iconic examples of
Second Warning to Humanity
Large lakes
lake management failures and successes, from which we identify priorities and approaches for future
Global change conservation efforts. The review underscores the extent of lake resource degradation, which is a result
Biodiversity loss of cumulative perturbation through time by long-term human impacts combined with other emerging
Ecosystem services stressors. Decades of degradation of large lakes have resulted in major challenges for restoration and
Eutrophication management and a legacy of ecological and economic costs for future generations. Large lakes will
require more intense conservation efforts in a warmer, increasingly populated world to achieve sustain-
able, high-quality waters. This Warning to Humanity is also an opportunity to highlight the value of a
long-term lake observatory network to monitor and report on environmental changes in large lake
ecosystems.
Ó 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Great Lakes
Research. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Contents

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
General characteristics of large lakes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Choice of a quantified definition for ‘‘large lakes” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Global large-lake characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Long-term ecosystem services of large lakes: Their role for humanity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Surveillance, warning and programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Major disturbances and threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Complexity of interacting stressors: Insights from successes and failures in restoring the ecological state of large lakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Successful management of eutrophication, but arrival of new problems due to species invasions and warming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Failed management of eutrophication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Success against invasive species via the use of chemical treatments, while actively seeking alternative control options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Failed conservation of lake fauna. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Failed hydrologic management in the Aral Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Unexpected consequences of lake restoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
New challenges and future threats to large lakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Eutrophication in a changing climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Shoreline modification and wetland loss in the catchment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Microplastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Micropollutants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Conclusions and perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Lessons learned from past management practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Conservation policies for the world’s large lakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Contribution list. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Appendix A. Supplementary data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00

Introduction
Table 1
List of services provided by large lakes, and specific examples of services. Most of
Fresh waters are the most valuable natural resource on Earth. these services are provided by lakes of all sizes and are not restricted to large lakes.
Lakes provide ecosystem services across four main categories, not However, large lakes represent 90% of the total global lake surface area and hence
only to the human populations directly surrounding them, but also contribute the major portion of these services. Modified from de Groot et al., (2012).
at broader regional and global scales: provisioning, regulating, sup- Ecosystem Examples
porting, and cultural services (Table 1). Large lakes are especially services
valuable resources in all four categories. They provide drinking 1 Provisioning Food, drinking water, industrial water and
water to millions of people, a crucial matter considering that the services hydroelectricity, water for navigation, genetic resources,
drinking water insecurity faced by many populations may be exac- medicinal resources
erbated by increases in drought due to climate change. Food har- 2 Regulating Water flow regulation, local climate regulation, water
services quality regulation, regulation of natural risks, transfers
vested from large lakes is also of cultural and economic or sequestration of elements . . .
importance, and includes fish, invertebrates such as crayfish, and 3 Supporting Habitats for nursery and reproduction (plant and
aquatic plants. Fish harvested commercially from large lakes not services animal), maintenance of aquatic fauna and flora from
only provide regional benefits to markets but are also exported micro-organisms to macro-organisms, support of
migratory species and wildlife, hot spots of biodiversity
around the world. Approximately 1.35 million tons of fish are har-
4 Cultural Aesthetics, recreation, inspiration for culture and art,
vested each year from the 25 largest lakes in the world by commer- services spiritual experience, cognitive and scientific
cial or artisanal fisheries, with approximately 95% of this harvest development
coming from the African large lakes (Sterner et al., 2020). In devel-

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 3

Fig. 1. Trends over time for some environmental issues identified in the 1992 Scientists’ Warning to Humanity and extent of dead zones in lakes (left axis) and large lakes
(right axis) of the world (Jenny et al., 2016a, 2016b). The number of dead zones were inventoried in lake sediment archives (a). In panel (b), global air temperature change, and
in panel (c) (in Ripple et al., 2017).

oping countries and indigenous communities especially, the food ergies between stressors, and the imposition of global stressors
provided by large lakes can represent key components of the diet. (climate, volatile compounds, and invasive species). Even in
Aquaculture, a growing industry within the waters of several large regions that successfully combatted environmental degradation
lakes (e.g., Jia et al., 2015), also provides a source of protein to a such as eutrophication, new threats are emerging, with conse-
growing human population, along with employment opportunities quences for large lakes and their ecosystem services that are diffi-
and economic benefits. Large lakes can offer supplemental cult to fully predict. These impacts are altering large lake
resources to human populations, or in some regions the necessary ecosystems and services in unprecedented ways, causing wide-
resources to sustain populations (Carpenter et al., 2007). Large spread concern among freshwater scientists.
lakes also provide important shipping corridors for trade, as is We believe there is an urgent need to alert world nations about
the case with the Laurentian Great Lakes. Regulating services — the current state and trajectory of the world’s large lakes. In less
benefits obtained by regulating ecosystem processes — provided than a century, the effects of rapid population growth and lack of
by large lakes include safe harbors (protection from storms), ero- adequate attention to environmental protection have resulted in
sion and sedimentation regulation, water storage, hydroelectric striking perturbations to freshwater ecosystems across the planet,
power generation potential, water quality regulation, and waste including the world’s large lakes. More broadly, the initiative fol-
assimilation. In terms of non-material benefits or cultural services, lows the joint European Large Lakes Symposium (ELLS)-
large lakes offer remarkable aesthetic experiences (viewscapes), International Association for Great Lakes Research (IAGLR) 2018
recreational (boating, fishing, beach use) and tourist opportunities, conference ‘‘Big Lakes - Small World”, held in Evian (France) in
and places of spiritual respite that humans value immeasurably. As September 2018, which brought together scientists working on
with other ecosystems, the variability in ecosystem services pro- large lakes around the world. Here, the participating authors make
vided by large lakes depends on their underlying ecology and the use of their broad expertise and knowledge of these global
current state of their environment that is closely connected to resources and present an updated assessment of the threats, both
the surrounding watershed (Soranno et al., 2010). long-term and emerging, that confront large lakes of the world
Environmental degradation often results in a loss of ecosystem today. We begin by summarizing the ecosystem services of large
services that support human societies (Chanda, 1996). Degradation lakes and the long-term and new threats that they are experienc-
of lake ecosystems is evident worldwide, threatening the function- ing. We then examine some of the successes, but also failures, in
ing of these ecosystems and the necessary services they provide at the management of large lakes. We end this article with a set of
a global scale (Fig. 1, Keeler et al., 2012). Future threats to large recommendations on conservation policies and approaches to pro-
lakes include the overexploitation of resources (water and food), tect and sustain the world’s large lakes.
inputs of excess nutrients and harmful algal blooms, changing cli-
mate, overfishing, species invasions, infectious diseases, expanding
hydropower, acidification, contaminants, emerging organic pollu- General characteristics of large lakes
tants, engineered nanomaterials, microplastic pollution, artificial
light and noise, freshwater salinization, and the cumulative effects Choice of a quantified definition for ‘‘large lakes”
of multiple stressors. Lake sediment archives keep track of the
extent to which lakes have departed from their so-called pre- The International Association for Great Lakes Research
Anthropocene status (Keeler et al., 2012), following a dynamics (IAGLR; http://iaglr.org/lakes/) uses a definition of large lakes
of change synchronized to the ‘‘Great Acceleration” phase of based on the analysis by Herdendorf (1982), defining Great Lakes
human pressures on the Earth since around 1950 (Steffen et al., to be inland waters greater than 500 km2 in area, which encom-
2007). passes the Laurentian Great Lakes and many other large lakes of
Past alteration of large lakes is also reducing their capability to the world. Herdendorf did leave open the need for additional
resist new threats, and degradation of water quality will continue input to refine this definition. For the present paper, our aim
because of the cumulative impact of ongoing local pressures, syn- was to identify a subset of larger waterbodies as a sentinel

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
4 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 2. Stressors in large lake ecosystems of the world are represented by examples of point and diffuse nutrient pollution, and climate forcing. Note the different intensity
and the accumulation of climate and warming forcing for different regional contexts. Contrasted situations are presented (for Eastern China, Europe and North America, and
for Southern Hemisphere). World distribution of large lakes larger than 100 km2 (blue dots), lakes larger than 500 km2 (blue open circles) and human population density
(background map, Center for International Earth Science Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia University, 2015). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure
legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

network to track and assess global change in the past and pre- tiveness of environmental management actions, and the duration
sent. Specifically, we analyzed the global distribution of lakes of recovery. For instance, the most rapid climate-induced warming
to identify a size class that would cover gradients of hydrological for many large, deep, dimictic lakes can be found at the surface of
(Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) Appendix S1, Fig. S1, the deepest, offshore waters (e.g., Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron
S2), geochemical, and climatic conditions (ESM Fig. S3). Based (Woolway and Merchant, 2018). This is due to the high sensitivity
on these criteria, the size class of
100 km2 was selected, of the date of stratification to climate warming (Austin and
and is adopted here as a definition of ‘‘large lakes”. The lakes Colman, 2007; Zhong et al., 2016) which is a result of the lakes’ sig-
of this size class encompass a wide range of human and environ- nificant depth. Shallower lakes such as Lake Erie do not show such
mental conditions, including a diverse range of biomes, geologi- high sensitivity (Zhong et al., 2016).
cal origins and salinities, and they are well spread out across the A coastal catchment zone extending 10 km inland was selected
world (Fig. 2 and ESM Fig. S3). As a result of their large size, (Allan et al., 2017) to estimate the spatial extent of services pro-
they share some limnological properties, to varying extents vided around large lakes, and we calculated that this size class of
(see next section), and collectively they have enormous eco- lake ecosystems could directly provide services to 131 million peo-
nomic (ESM Table S1) as well as ecological value. Here we ple in their coastal zones (Fig. 3, ESM Fig.S1). Additional support for
believe that our summary of the issues for large lakes would still this 10-km boundary is found in the analysis that shows that 10%
apply even if a different size-based definition were used. of the world’s population lives further than 10 km from a surface
freshwater body (Kummu et al., 2011). This estimate is likely to
be conservative given that many large lakes provide services to
Global large-lake characteristics
populations that reside at distances well beyond 10 km from the
lake. For example, Lake Biwa provides drinking water via aque-
In total, 1,709 inland waters meet our
100 km2 criterion for
ducts for 15 million people in the Kansai region of Japan, the Lau-
large lakes, and their global distribution is shown in Fig. 2. If we
rentian Great Lakes provide drinking water to 48 million people,
consider lakes of all ages and origins, including tectonic, volcanic,
and Lake Chad provides water to over 30 million people at the edge
alluvial, glacial, moraine, karstic, and human-made waterbodies
of the Sahara. Large lakes are present in 105 of the world’s 195
such as dams and reservoirs, then large lakes represent only 0.2%
countries (Fig. 3), and at least 10 such lakes occur in each of the
of the total number of lakes in the world greater than 0.1 km2.
hydrologic zones defined by Meybeck et al. (2013), indicating that
However, they account for nearly 90% of the total surface area
this global network of waters spans a wide gradient of conditions
(1,773,306 km2) and volume (178,772 km3) of the world’s lakes.
(Fig. S2).
These large lakes vary greatly in many of their limnological attri-
In spite of monitoring issues related to their size, many large
butes, but as an overall class of waterbodies, they differ from smal-
lakes are well-monitored ecosystems. Resulting datasets of envi-
ler lakes in terms of the following characteristics, in descending
ronmental parameters are shared among networks such as the
order (ESM Fig. S4): 1) larger water volumes; 2) larger watersheds;
Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS) and the Global Lake Ecolog-
3) greater shoreline length; 4) greater water inflows; 5) greater
ical Observatory Network (GLEON), the latter of which references
depth; 6) greater shore development; and 7) greater influence of
almost half of their sites as large lakes. This
100 km2 size class
wind due to a much larger fetch and wave action (ESM Fig. S4,
of lakes provides an exceptional network of sentinels of environ-
Table S2). These properties have direct and indirect consequences
mental change, and the ensemble of these long-term datasets
on the exposure to stressors, the intensity of the impacts, the effec-

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 5

Fig. 3. Effect of different size classes on the spatial distribution and abundance of large lakes in the world. a. Number of lakes by lake size class, b. number of countries and
GLEON’s lakes by size class (Sharma et al., 2015), and c. sum of shore length and number of human population by size class of lakes. Note the exponential increase in the
number of countries and humans affected by lake services as we include lakes of smaller size.

provides a valuable resource to better understand their functioning 2009), a concept we build upon here by proposing a sentinel net-
and vulnerability to global and local threats. work of large lakes. Certain lakes are especially sensitive indicators
of environmental change, for example polar and alpine lakes that
are strongly influenced by climate warming effects on the cryo-
Long-term ecosystem services of large lakes: Their role for humanity sphere, and that lie at remote locations where the arrival of long
range contaminants can be detected (Bourgeois et al., 2018;
On geological timescales, the rise of human civilization during Vincent, 2018). Lakes are also sentinels of local human pressure,
the Neolithic around 12,000 years ago is concomitant to the prolif- pollution, and ecological impacts, particularly large lakes, which
eration of lakes, a ‘‘Lake Age” following a glacial period when most integrate the impacts of human activities on land use, mass fluxes,
lakes in the Northern Hemisphere were covered by ice or did not pollutant transfers, and management interventions, all extending
yet exist. The contribution of lakes to human resources and to over large areas. Large lakes therefore provide evidence of socio-
the regulation of biogeochemical cycles is therefore particularly ecological resilience and are an integrative measure of humanity’s
important at the human scale. Over the last few centuries, societal willingness to protect and sustain their environment.
awareness and the value of provisioning, regulating, or cultural About half of the world’s largest lakes are ancient waterbodies
ecosystem services (Table 1) provided by large lakes have shifted, that existed before the last glaciation, and sometimes for millions
often in response to a growing human population and previous of years (Hampton et al., 2018). These lakes not only record long
ecosystem degradation. Large lakes provide critically important histories of environmental variation and human activity in their
benefits to all humanity (Table 2), and they need increasing care sediments, but also contain very high levels of biodiversity and
and attention to meet the growing demands for their ecosystem endemism (Hampton et al., 2018; Vincent, 2018). These ancient
services at a time of increasing threats of ecosystem degradation. ecosystems and other large lakes are natural laboratories for wider
From water samples and sediment records, lakes can provide a understanding, including as model systems to study evolutionary
detailed record of land, hydrologic, or atmospheric degradation processes.
(e.g., Davis, 2015; Jenny et al., 2019; Williamson et al., 2009),
thereby yielding insights into human interactions with the envi-
ronment at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Given their inte- Surveillance, warning and programs
grative behavior, including as the lowest points in the landscape,
the world’s lakes may be thought of as a vast, spatially distributed There is a long history of limnological research on the degrada-
network of sentinels of environmental change (Williamson et al., tion of large lakes and the causal mechanisms of change. This work

Table 2
List of services provided by large lakes, related lake properties in each service class, and specific examples of services.

Services related Related characteristics Examples

to Observation
and warning
1 Earth System Lake area, volume, depth lakeshore length; Lake:watershed; position Climate and atmospheric regulation (local and regional), mitigation
integrators within fluvial systems, and Earth system, sensitivity to climate (buffer) of water volumes and quality and hydric-pollution transfer to
variability the sea: storage of particulate matter, biogeochemical reactors
(erosion, carbon circulation, water-storage), Mostly equivalent to
‘regulating services’
2 Natural Depth, age, origin, morphology, basin/ lake ratio; water renewal time, Lake system functioning, basic processes (water chemistry interface,
laboratories salinity, chemistry, microbiology, endemism, species colonization chemotrophic microbiota, speciation, paleo-limnology, ecological
responses to natural or anthropogenic perturbations etc).
3 Sentinels of Length of hydrological, thermal, chemical and ecological records; Surveillance of climate and human impacts on biota, habitat, physics
global and local position within biomes; paleo-limnological records and geochemical cycles.
changes
4 Natural archives Riparian population, drinking water supply, other irreplaceable Anthropocene, witness of human history, Interaction of human with
of human history economic resources; documented historical records; evidence of past nature, changes in how human value lakes, but also land ecosystems
/present spiritual value, land cover and uses

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
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6 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 3
Examples of some international and national frameworks to manage large lakes.

Programs Year Countries Description

International/Multi-national
Boundary Waters Treaty 1909 Canada (Great Britain), Treaty for comprehensive sharing of waters between these two nations,
USA including the Great Lakes.
Laurentian Great Lakes Coastal Wetland 1996 US, Canada Assess coastal wetlands (Cooper et al, 2018; Uzarski et al., 2017, 2019)
Monitoring Program
EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000 European Union countries Legislative framework for assessing and protecting ecological status of
all aquatic ecosystems (Directive 2000/60/EC; WFD, 2019)
The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement 1972, 1978, US and Canada Commitment to restore and maintain the integrity of the Laurentian GL
Protocol (GLWQA) 1987, 2012 waters
Commission Internationale pour la Protection 1963 Switzerland and France Commission responsible for monitoring the quality of the water in Lake
des Eaux du Léman (CIPEL) Geneva, in the Rhône and in their tributaries
International Commission for the Protection of 1959 Germany, Austria, Observation, recommendation for coordinated preventive measures,
Lake Constance (IGKB) Switzerland and and discussion of planned utilization of the lake.
Liechtenstein
The Great Lakes Basin Compact (GLC) 1955 Eight US states and Enable transboundary cooperation on lake management
Ontario and Quebec,
Canada
National/Domestic
Canada Ontario Agreement (COA) 1994 Canada Restore, protect, conserve Laurentian Great Lakes water quality and
ecosystem health
Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) 2010 USA Restore, protect, conserve Laurentian Great Lakes water quality and
ecosystem health
Water Pollution Prevention and Control (WPPC) 1984 China Water management to ensure emergency and back-up water resources
Law are available in cities
Single large lake policies
Programs Year Lakes Description
Aral Sea Program 1995 Aral Sea Restoring the Aral Sea to its former level
Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian 2018 Caspian Sea How to divide up the potentially huge oil and gas resources
Sea
Framework Convention for the Protection of the 2006 Caspian Sea Protection of the Caspian environment from all sources of pollution
Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea
Lake Victoria Environmental Management 2011 Lake Victoria, Africa Tackle environmental challenges of lake basin over the long-term and
Program (LVEMP) improve welfare of inhabitants that depend on its resources
Canada-Ontario Lake Erie Action Plan, under the 2018 Lake Erie Reducing P loads to the western and central basins of Lake Erie by 40%
Great Lakes Protection Act (2015) by 2025
Convention on the sustainable management of 2003 Lake Tanganyika Objective to ensure the protection and conservation of the biological
Lake Tanganyika diversity and the sustainable use of the natural resources

has given rise to public alerts and has stimulated restoration activ- can operate indirectly through prey, predation, competition and
ities and monitoring programs to track the effects of restoration non-trophic interactions. Those indirect effects may propagate
and to detect new and ongoing threats. A wide variety of policy through the network of species interactions and have profound
frameworks exist to manage large lakes across the globe, with dif- impacts on lake functioning, water quality, and ecosystem services
ferent levels of maturity and effectiveness. These frameworks are (Fig. 4). The most widespread stressors with strong impacts on
essential to ensure that scientific results are communicated to pol- human society and a description of the main impacts are summa-
icymakers and drive management actions that can protect and rized below.
restore these valuable freshwater ecosystems. Many large lakes Increased nutrient loading as a result of human activities has
are transboundary, necessitating international policy frameworks. been found to trigger ‘‘cultural eutrophication.” Cultural eutrophi-
Several examples are described in Table 3. cation is historically associated with an oversupply of phosphorus
(P) (Carpenter, 2008; Carpenter et al., 2018; Schindler, 2012, 1977).
Major disturbances and threats Most common symptoms of cultural eutrophication also include
changes in species composition, decrease in water transparency,
Due to intense human activities and lake uses, large lakes are increased incidence of anoxia, and biodiversity loss (Carpenter,
exposed to a wide variety of stressors. These stressors can be 2005). Potential outcomes include the development of cyanobacte-
chemical (heavy metals, nutrients, organic contaminants), physical rial harmful algal blooms (CHAB) and an increased release of
(temperature, radiation, water budget, habitat alteration), biologi- greenhouse gases such as methane (Wurtsbaugh et al., 2019). Con-
cal (invasive species), or from direct human extraction of resources sequently, eutrophication impairs ecosystem services such as fish-
(harvesting, mining). Stressors are agents that cause disturbance, ing, water supply, and recreation. The introduction by the public
defined as pronounced changes in the function or structure of an authorities of regulations to limit eutrophication still is a source
ecosystem, leading to decreased inherent qualities such as losses of tension and debate on the activities identified as contributing
in biodiversity or a reduced capacity to sustain ecosystem services. or having contributed decisively to these phenomena (Le Moal
Stressors can directly impact individual performances and life et al., 2019).
history traits with cascading consequences at species, population, Internal P loading (i.e., recycling of sedimentary P back to the
and community levels. Specifically, stressors can change physical water column) is often the major reason for a delayed response
and chemical conditions in a lake to promote or decrease photo- in improved lake water quality following reduced external nutrient
synthesis and associated plant and animal growth, modify the pro- loading (Jeppesen et al., 2005; Schindler, 2012). The mobilization of
duction of hormones, operate as lethal components by increasing sedimentary P is usually associated with oxygen depletion that
mortality, or change the behavior and seasonal timing of plant triggers reduction of ferric iron to ferrous iron and the subsequent
and animal development. In addition to the direct effects, stressors release of associated P. However, P release has also been observed

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 7

Fig. 4. Overview of services provided by large lakes, of most known stressors, and of the impacts of these stressors on lakes. White arrows highlight direct or indirect impacts
on the lake food web.

under oxic conditions, and the mechanism behind P release may be The responses of lakes to climate change are well documented
much more complex (Hupfer and Lewandowski, 2008; Tammeorg (Woolway et al., 2020), including increases in surface water tem-
et al., 2017). perature (O’Reilly et al., 2015; Schneider and Hook, 2010), loss of
The morphology of large lakes strongly affects their biogeo- ice cover (Magnuson et al., 1990; Sharma et al., 2019), changes in
chemical cycles and the mechanisms that control these cycles. stratification and mixing regimes (Woolway and Merchant,
Large and shallow lakes, such as Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia), Lake 2019), and increased lake evaporation (Wang et al., 2018). Deep
Okeechobee (USA), and Lake Taihu (China) are particularly influ- lakes, which also tend to be ‘‘large” in surface area, are more likely
enced by sediment resuspension due to the high dynamic ratio to experience winters without ice cover in a warming climate than
(square root of lake area to mean depth, Håkanson, 1982). In Lake shallow lakes at similar latitudes (Sharma et al., 2019). Similarly,
Erie, by contrast, external loading of nutrients has become a more the epilimnetic waters of large, deep lakes have often been found
significant threat, particularly due to increased delivery of soluble to be warming at fast rates, as high as 1.0 °C per decade (O’Reilly
reactive phosphorus delivery from nonpoint sources via tributaries et al., 2015; Schneider and Hook, 2010), due in part to the afore-
(i.e., labile P fractions at the soil surface and transmission of sol- mentioned high sensitivity of the date of stratification onset to
uble P via subsurface drainage) (Jarvie et al., 2017). warming air temperatures (Austin and Colman, 2007; Zhong
Climate change has been identified as one of the most impor- et al., 2016). The rates of warming, however, are generally quite
tant problems facing humanity today (Feulner, 2017; IPCC, 2018). variable among lakes (O’Reilly et al., 2015) and even spatially

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
8 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

variable across large lakes (Woolway and Merchant 2018). Interac- tions in some large lakes. For example, blue pike (Sander vitreus
tions with additional stressors can also lead to ecological surprises glaucus), a locally endemic subspecies of Walleye, was one of
(Christensen et al., 2006). For example, changes in precipitation, the most heavily harvested commercial species in Lake Erie until
evaporation, runoff, and consumptive water use have contributed their collapse in the 1960s (Brenden et al., 2013). Overfishing con-
to some lakes experiencing shifts in seasonal water levels tinues to be a threat today. In Lake Malawi (Africa’s 3rd largest
(Lenters, 2001), while others have seen historically low / high lake lake), 9% of the 458 species of fish are at high risk of extinction,
levels (Rodell et al., 2018; Wurtsbaugh et al., 2017), contributing to with 3 out of 4 of the species of chambo – oreochromine cichlids,
alterations in water quantity and water quality (Vörösmarty et al., the lake’s most vulnerable fishes – being deemed as ‘‘critically
2000). Feedbacks from large lakes to the atmosphere have also endangered” due to unsustainable fishing (IUCN 2018). This over-
been identified, such as the warming of regional air temperature harvest of large-lake fishes threatens food security and livelihoods
(Le Moigne et al., 2016). in some of the most food-deprived countries in East Africa. A
Changes in lake thermal structure will affect the ecosystem by, newly emerging impact from harvest is the rapid evolution of
for instance, altering the distribution of freshwater fishes, and/or key yield-determining traits in fish populations, slowing recovery
decreasing deep-water oxygen concentrations (Cohen et al., and impacting resilience (Dunlop et al., 2018). Furthermore, the
2016). In addition to modified vertical structure from climate impacts of harvest can spread beyond the target fish species, as
change, some large lakes have also shown changes in horizontal critical predator–prey relationships are altered within impacted
temperature structure, such as more rapid warming of offshore food webs (Nõges et al., 2018).
surface waters as compared to shallower, nearshore waters Littoral shoreline modification has obviously increased in
(Woolway and Merchant 2018). Such characteristics are important large lakes with the development of human society. Human settle-
to consider for lake organisms, given that temperatures warmer ment on the coast, inputs of nutrients and pollutants, and creation
than a specific threshold can be lethal to some species. This is rel- of harbors and beaches strongly influence local shoreline habitats,
evant for coldwater species in a warming climate, for example, if which constitute hotspots of lake biodiversity (Schmieder, 2004;
they cannot escape to cooler, deeper waters or groundwater inflow Vadeboncoeur et al., 2011). In addition to previously described
regions (Kangur et al., 2013). The warming-related collapse of cold- stressors, stressors near the coast include physical alterations that
water fish populations has already been documented in many lakes induce changes in the functioning of the whole coastal ecosystem.
in Northern Europe (Jeppesen et al., 2012). Climate change is also For instance, shoreline transformations modify the physical influ-
expected to amplify the impacts of eutrophication in the future ence of waves and littoral slopes and have created sheltered areas
(Moss et al., 2011), in part through changes in stratification. with higher nutrient accumulation, enhancing the development of
Changes in the length of the growing season within lakes can also phytobenthos and phytoplankton at the expense of macrophyte
have profound impacts on the seasonal timing of population devel- communities (Sand-Jensen and Borum, 1991; Weisner et al.,
opment for organisms within lakes (Winder and Schindler, 2004). 1997). This affects habitats for fishes and macroinvertebrates and
The extent to which species phenology is affected by climate can disrupt the trophic relationships of the whole ecosystem. How-
change differs among species, which might result in a mismatch ever, the available literature is not yet sufficient to evaluate the
between prey and consumers, with consequences in terms of effects of human-made structures on fish recruitment (Macura
growth rates and survival (Adrian et al., 2006; Thackeray et al., et al., 2019).
2008), especially when warming is seasonally heterogeneous Invasive species have drastically altered large-lake ecosystems,
(Straile et al., 2015). causing significant economic losses to human society. For example,
Acidification has many negative biogeochemical consequences dreissenid mussels have changed nutrient pathways in the Lauren-
for species diversity as well as ecosystem health and functioning tian Great Lakes (Hecky et al., 2004), altering benthic invertebrate
(Beamish and Harvey, 1972; Malley, 1980; Vinogradov et al., and plankton communities (Madenjian et al., 2015) and leading to
1987), and it is driven by inputs of acid anions, such as sulfates life history and population changes in commercially harvested
and nitrates, and/or dissolution of atmospheric CO2. It implies a fishes (Fera et al., 2017, 2015). Water hyacinth, the world’s most
decrease in water pH, carbonate ion concentration, and the satura- invasive aquatic weed, has invaded numerous systems, including
tion level of biologically important calcium carbonate minerals. In the African large lakes (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 1997). Water hya-
the 1960s and 1970s, acidification of natural waters was a pressing cinth forms dense mats in shallow waters that alter fish breeding
issue of regional concern because of acid rain and local atmo- habitat, impair boat traffic and water intake, and provide breeding
spheric deposition, and it is not clear how pCO2 in lakes will opportunities for mosquitos acting as disease vectors (Ogutu-
change in the future (Hasler et al., 2016) as the global atmospheric Ohwayo et al., 1997). The threat from invasive species will remain
levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) continue to rise, reaching unprece- into the future as climate change pushes species boundaries to new
dented levels of 400 ppm in the 2010s (Monastersky, 2013). Large areas and as globalized trade expands. Furthermore, large lakes
lakes typically have a low ratio of watershed area to lake area, connected to transoceanic shipping networks (such as the Lauren-
which is one of the factors that influences a lake’s susceptibility tian Great Lakes; Holeck et al., 2004), combined with ship ballast
to potential atmospheric driven acidification (Eilers et al., 1983). introductions, can be gateways for invasive species to expand into
However, decreasing CO2 solubility and elevated algal productivity other surrounding inland lakes and waterways.
due to increasing temperature may counterbalance the effects of
increasing atmospheric CO2 (Phillips et al., 2015), but future acid- Complexity of interacting stressors: Insights from successes and
ification trends are not well understood currently and more failures in restoring the ecological state of large lakes
research will be needed.
Harvesting of fisheries resources is common in large lakes In large lakes, one stressor usually does not act alone. Instead,
and includes commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishing. multiple stressors interact in additive or synergistic ways, and
Large lakes tend to experience more commercial fishing pressure their combined impacts generate complex responses. The exam-
than smaller lakes (75% of the freshwater ports inventoried in the ples below highlight this complexity in the response of large lakes
World Food Program logistics global ports database are located in and the challenge that such complexity poses to lake management.
lakes greater than 19,347 km2). As a result, they could be vulner- Hence, the ‘‘cocktail” of stressors are generally specific to each lake,
able to over-exploitation without management intervention. making it difficult to generalize environmental diagnostics; but
Overfishing has led to population collapses and species extirpa- elements of categorization can still be provided at the stressor

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 9

level. For instance, the development of wastewater treatment and by a shift in planktonic communities from nitrogen-fixing to
associated reduction of point pollution varies greatly across the non-nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, especially Microcystis species
globe. Some countries would therefore still have to conduct poli- that can produce toxins (Brittain et al., 2000; Chaffin and
cies in this direction, while others need to better manage the dif- Bridgeman, 2014; Rinta-Kanto et al., 2005). Although phosphorus
fuse pollution of their intensive agriculture, with great disparities has been considered the primary driver of the biological productiv-
in geographical situations, such as those related to heritage of past ity of freshwater ecosystems, including harmful algae (Schindler,
uses, soils, drainage, land use, or lake tributary relations (Kayal 2012, 1977, 1974) such as in Lake Erie (International Joint
et al., 2019). Commission, 2014), the precise nutrient regime that favors toxi-
genic, non-nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria is complicated and is
Successful management of eutrophication, but arrival of new problems becoming better understood (Carey et al., 2012). Indeed, it has
due to species invasions and warming been suggested in several studies that nitrogen chemistry may
shape the biological diversity of the system (e.g., Wilhelm et al.,
Lake Constance recovered from eutrophication due to success- 2003). Yet the vast majority of current nutrient management is
ful lake management (Güde et al., 1998), with total phosphorus focused on the reduction of phosphorus loads into the watersheds
(TP) concentrations dropping by an order of magnitude to current of Lake Erie (International Joint Commission, 2014), not on nitro-
levels (6–8 mg/L) that were typical for the years (early 1950s) prior gen loads (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2017,
to massive eutrophication (Jochimsen et al., 2013). Up through 2015), which have also increased in the past two decades (Paerl
recent years, phytoplankton and zooplankton populations et al., 2016). As such, management measures may be inadequate
responded as predicted, and many food web changes due to in mitigating the recent events of detrimental cyanobacterial
eutrophication were reversed. For example, extirpated species blooms of Microcystis (Gobler et al., 2016; Harke et al., 2016). How-
(i.e., species with abundances below detection level for a long per- ever, more agencies now promote a dual strategy to reduce both N
iod) reappeared, including several diatom species (Kümmerlin, and P (Paerl et al., 2018) even though this imputes higher societal
1998) and the cladoceran Diaphanosoma brachyurum (Stich, costs for wastewater treatment.
2004). On the other hand, species that had increased with eutroph-
ication fell into decline (Straile, 2015), and relative contributions of Success against invasive species via the use of chemical treatments,
green algae and cyanobacteria also decreased (Jochimsen et al., while actively seeking alternative control options
2013). Even evolutionary responses to oligotrophication (the
return to more oligotrophic conditions) were evident, such as the The story of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian
re-emergence of functional diversity lost during eutrophication Great Lakes is the world’s only example of the successful,
(Jacobs et al., 2019). However, overall productivity decreased, ecosystem-scale control of an invasive aquatic vertebrate. The
which presumably contributed to reduced catches of important sea lamprey, native to the Atlantic Ocean, was first recorded in
fish species such as whitefish (Thomas and Eckmann, 2007). In Lake Ontario in 1835 and, after improvements to the Welland
recent years, Lake Constance has experienced massive changes Canal, spread throughout the remaining Laurentian Great Lakes
affecting various trophic levels of the pelagic food chain. Most by the 1920s-30s (Christie and Goddard, 2003). This species inva-
notably, sticklebacks, a littoral fish present in Lake Constance since sion was catastrophic both ecologically and economically, deci-
the 1950s, underwent a habitat change and is now the numerically mating lake trout stocks and other native species and
dominant fish species in the pelagic zone (Eckmann and Engesser, contributing to the collapse of commercial fisheries (Siefkes
2019; Rösch et al., 2018). This habitat shift seemed to have further et al., 2013). Sea lamprey adults are parasitic, attaching to a fish
decreased whitefish growth and also (possibly due to stickleback host with their suction-cup mouth, using a rasping tongue to
predation on larval fish) whitefish recruitment (Rösch et al., pierce the host’s flesh, and feeding on blood and other body fluids.
2018). Overall increased predation pressure in the pelagic zone A breakthrough was made in the 1950s, when it was discovered
seems to have changed the zooplankton community. Furthermore, that a compound, 3-trifluoromethyl-40 -nitrophenol (TFM), could
the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens recently increased in selectively kill sea lamprey larvae (Applegate et al., 1957). Sea lam-
abundance despite TP concentrations below 10 mg/L. Presently, it prey larvae burrow into the soft sediments of tributaries, where
is unclear to what extent climate warming and/or food web alter- they remain vulnerable to pesticide application for up to 7 years
ations due to stickleback invasion of the pelagic zone are causing before they transform and out-migrate to the open lake to feed.
these new developments. Nevertheless, Lake Constance demon- The treatment of the Great Lakes’ tributaries with TFM is the
strates that despite lake managers successfully combatting the cornerstone of an extensive binational, science-based control pro-
eutrophication problem in this lake, the arrival of new species in gram administered by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Sea
the pelagic zone possibly in combination with climate change lamprey populations have been suppressed by as much as approx-
may create new food webs, which could change the ecosystem ser- imately 90% compared to pre-control levels (Heinrich et al., 2003;
vices that large lakes provide. Smith and Tibbles, 1980), resulting in the recovery of key fish pop-
ulations and the restoration of the 7-billion-dollar fishery (Siefkes
Failed management of eutrophication et al., 2013). Barriers blocking the upstream migration of spawning
sea lamprey have also contributed to control, but there is increas-
Since the 1950s, excess nutrient concentrations of nitrogen and ing pressure to remove some barriers to increase connectivity for
phosphorus have been changing the trophic state of Lake Erie’s native species (McLaughlin et al., 2013). There remains a need for
ecosystem, leading to reduced water quality and shifting environ- vigilance and the continued search for alternative or supplemental
mental structures and functions within the lake ecosystem (Steffen control options in order to reduce reliance on TFM and avoid sea
et al., 2014; International Joint Commission, 2014). Eutrophication, lamprey evolving pesticide resistance (Dunlop et al., 2017, p.
climate change, and hydrologic dynamics have likely driven natu- 2017). Also, there is a considerable economic cost to treating
rally occurring genera of cyanobacteria, including dominance by streams with TFM, and although many exposed aquatic species
Microcystis spp., to multiply at a rapid rate, resulting in harmful appear to be unharmed by TFM, there are potential negative effects
algal blooms (HABs). In the mid-1990s, the western basin of Lake on some valued species (e.g., lake sturgeon). However, if managers
Erie, following years of improvement after point source P loading stopped these treatments, then sea lamprey populations would
reduction (International Joint Commission, 2014), was confronted likely rebound. The sea lamprey example highlights the success

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
10 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

of a science-based invasive species control program, but it is also a due to water withdrawal from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers
cautionary tale for the importance of preventing exotic species for irrigation (Micklin, 2010; Micklin et al., 2014). The resulting
introductions in the first place to avoid costly control programs strong imbalance between inflow and evaporation led to the sepa-
to mitigate negative effects. ration of the sea into the ‘‘Small” and ‘‘Large” Aral Seas in 1986–87,
with the latter splitting further into three parts (Cretaux et al.,
Failed conservation of lake fauna 2019, 2013). Salinity increased from 10 g/l during the initial period
to 30 g/l in the Small Aral during later years and greater than 100 g/
In eight southern alpine lakes (including large lakes) non-native l in the Large Aral, eliminating most of the freshwater species,
species contributed between 4.0% and 71.5% to standardized fish while many endemic saline species have also been lost due to com-
catches by number (Volta et al., 2018). Eutrophication is recog- petition with introduced marine species (Aladin and Potts, 1992).
nized as the main driver of the decline of coregonid diversity Due to the collapse of commercial fisheries (Ermakhanov et al.,
(Vonlanthen et al., 2012). Nevertheless, inappropriate fish manage- 2012), thousands of fishermen lost their livelihoods (Glantz,
ment practices can also have strong contribution in diversity loss 1999). The desiccation of the Aral Sea has also created a large
(Anneville et al. 2015). For instance, fishery management practices desert, the Aralkum (Breckle et al., 2012), exposing unfertile salt
such as stocking have also contributed to coregonid diversity loss and sand contaminated with pesticides (Whish-Wilson, 2002),
by different mechanisms (Cucherousset and Olden, 2011), such heavy metals (Ge et al., 2016), and residue from weapons testing
as competition, predation, habitat modification, or genetic extinc- (Bennett, 2016). Toxic dust emissions have negatively affected
tion through introgressive hybridization (Winkler et al., 2011). In female reproduction and fertility (Gulmira et al., 2018) and infant
Africa, the introduction of the Nile perch (Lates niloticus) is a major mortality rates (>100 per thousand, caused mostly by acute respi-
issue in Lake Victoria (Njiru et al., 2018). Introduced in the 1950s to ratory and diarrheal diseases), and high levels of salts in drinking
improve the fishery, this big carnivorous fish is famous for its flesh water have increased incidences of kidney and liver disease
quality. Native fish stocks, however, including several hundred (Whish-Wilson, 2002). Long-distance transport of salt and dust
endemic species belonging to the Cichlidae family (Seehausen, (Xi and Sokolik, 2016) has caused soil salinization and acceleration
2006), have become depleted as the Nile perch stock increased of the melting rate of glaciers and snow, changing the water bal-
during the same period. The loss of species diversity is due to sev- ance of rivers in downwind areas (Abuduwaili, 2010). Loss of the
eral factors, including: 1) eutrophication leading to extension of climate-moderating role of this previously large water body has
anoxic layers, increased turbidity, and changes in lake functioning, increased both diurnal (Roget and Khan, 2018) and seasonal tem-
which contribute to degraded spawning habitat of some endemic perature ranges (Sharma et al., 2015). A dike was built in 1992 to
species and shifts in food web such as increased shrimp and pelagic allow the water level to be raised in the Small Aral, maintain its
fish; 2) new fishing gear and intensive exploitation without regu- salinity below 20 g/L, and restore fishing activities (Aladin et al.,
lation, causing decreased fish stocks; and 3) competition for space 2008), but conflicting interests between the countries sharing the
and resources between Nile perch and endemic fish species basin have so far prevented efficient efforts toward rational water
(Getabu et al., 2003). The combined effects of these different fac- management (Bennett, 2016).
tors have led to the disappearance of endemic fish species over a
relatively short period of time. Management interventions such
Unexpected consequences of lake restoration
as pollution regulations and invasive species prevention and con-
trol must be investigated as options to preserve fish species diver-
Europe’s sixth largest lake – Lake Vättern – is another example
sity in lakes.
of a lake where efficient phosphorus reduction in the 1970s
An example of how management actions have so far failed to
through improved treatment of wastewater in the catchment area
recover an iconic fish stock is the lake sturgeon in the Laurentian
resulted in a rapid decline of algal biomass in the lake (Willén,
Great Lakes, where historical overfishing contributed to the col-
2001). The outcome of the reduction was, however, different in this
lapse of this previously abundant species (Haxton et al., 2014). In
large lake compared to other, smaller lakes. Because of a very long
Lake Erie, lake sturgeon is now rare, but the lake had an estimated
water retention time (58 years), the successful phosphorus reduc-
historic carrying capacity of 23,000 metric tons (Sweka et al.,
tion continued over decades, and in conjunction with a natural
2018). The collapse of this benthivore from the littoral zone likely
phosphorus concentration decline that was observed across Swe-
had profound effects on the aquatic community (Haxton et al.,
den in nutrient-poor reference lakes (Weyhenmeyer and Broberg,
2014) and impacted the many indigenous communities around
2014), phosphorus concentrations in this large lake are now excep-
the Laurentian Great Lakes for which the species holds great cul-
tionally low, averaging only 4.6 ± 0.3 mg L1 in 1992–2010
tural significance. The government listing of lake sturgeon as a
(Sandström et al., 2014). Together with overharvesting, climate
species-at-risk and the protection of stocks from fishing has unfor-
change, and introduced species, the reduced nutrient loading was
tunately failed to recover the species. This is likely because of the
suggested as the reason behind a collapse of the Arctic char in
many other factors affecting populations, such as barriers in tribu-
the lake. Thus, the final outcome of a successful restoration pro-
taries blocking spawning migrations, anthropogenic degradation of
gram might have contributed to a mismatch in the food web, caus-
spawning and nursery habitat, and invasive species that increase
ing the collapse of a piscivorous fish (Jonsson and Setzer, 2015).
the mortality of various life stages, currently limiting the recovery
of lake sturgeon (Sweka et al., 2018). However, stocking of young
sturgeon has increased sturgeon populations in the Lake Ontario New challenges and future threats to large lakes
watershed (Jackson et al., 2002), and spawning habitat rehabilita-
tion in the connecting channels shows promise as spawning stur- Ecosystem health and ecosystem services provided by large
geon are attracted to these habitats (Detroit, Niagara and St lakes are vulnerable to emerging threats such as microplastics,
Lawrence Rivers). micropollutants, and the cumulative effects of threats including
climate change, eutrophication, over-harvesting, and invasive spe-
Failed hydrologic management in the Aral Sea cies. An evaluation of 50 potential stressors in the Laurentian Great
Lakes suggested that invasive species and climate change had the
The endorheic Aral Sea, the fourth largest lake in the world, has greatest potential impacts on large lakes, in contrast to the long-
significantly declined in volume and surface area since the 1960s standing emphasis on eutrophication and bioaccumulation of

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 11

contaminants (Smith et al., 2015). Nonetheless, eutrophication 2015; Uzarski et al., 2017). Coastal wetlands are essential to inte-
remains a major concern in specific areas of the Laurentian Great grating the pelagic habitats of large lakes with the surrounding
Lakes (e.g., western Lake Erie. Green Bay, Saginaw Bay) as well as landscape, and in the process provide areas of high biodiversity
in many other places in the world. Here, we highlight key emerging and nutrient cycling (Uzarski, 2009). For instance, coastal wetlands
threats and the challenges associated with cumulative effects of of large lakes support a diverse assemblage of fishes, including
multiple stressors in the world’s large lakes. both permanent residents and migratory species (Cooper et al.,
2018; Jude and Pappas, 1992; Trebitz and Hoffman, 2015).
Eutrophication in a changing climate Coastal wetland loss and shoreline modification are expected to
interact with other environmental stressors in the Laurentian
Phosphorus loadings to largest lakes of the world increased in Great Lakes (Kovalenko et al., 2018; Smith et al., 2019). Few studies
50 out of 100 lakes between 1990 and 1994 and 2005–2010 assess interactions among multiple stressors, highlighting an
(Fink et al., 2018). Furthermore, multiple stressors, under the lens important research area. For example, wetland loss is expected to
of climate change, are an emerging challenge to freshwaters world- exacerbate nutrient loading due to reduced trapping and removal
wide (Smith et al., 2019). Climate change may act synergistically of nutrients (Smith et al., 2019). Changes in water levels as a result
with nutrients to amplify eutrophication and further degrade of climate change could exacerbate or alleviate shoreline modifica-
ecosystem health and related ecosystem services provided by large tion because higher water levels often will result in the hardening
lakes, including provisioning of clean drinking water and recre- of shorelines (i.e., wetlands loss), whereas lower water levels may
ational opportunities (Moss et al., 2011; Paerl and Huisman, allow wetlands to recover and develop between the water and
2008). With a changing climate, future nutrient loading will likely hardened shoreline (Smith et al., 2019).
need to be reduced to lower levels than needed in the past if we are
to maintain water quality in lakes. Microplastics
Climate change will have substantial effects on lake ecosystems
irrespective of their size. Higher temperatures will: 1) advance the Since the start of plastics mass production in the 1940s,
onset and enhance the strength and duration of stratification, cre- microplastic contamination of aquatic environments has been a
ating a higher risk of oxygen depletion in bottom waters and sub- growing problem, especially over the last decade. Microplastics
sequent release of nutrients stimulating eutrophication, 2) can be ingested by organisms, accumulate in specific tissues, and
enhance the risk of temporary or permanent stratification in be transported along the food chains. Moreover, they may act as
polymictic lakes (even in large lakes such as Lake Taihu), and shift a medium to concentrate and transfer chemicals and persistent,
some lakes from dimictic to monomictic (Woolway and Merchant, bioaccumulative, and toxic substances to organisms (Eerkes-
2019), creating risk for temporary or longer-term oxygen depletion Medrano et al., 2015). As these polymers are highly resistant to
and nutrient release, and 3) shift species composition, with a pro- degradation, quantities of microplastics in aquatic environments
jected enhancement of dominance by potentially toxic cyanobacte- will most likely continue to increase over time; and, consequently,
ria or dinoflagellates, and 4) promote expanding ranges of invasive microplastics represent a problem that future generations will
species, resulting in new species introductions and enhanced have to face (Galloway and Lewis, 2016).
impacts to aquatic food webs. The presence of microplastics in aquatic environments is widely
In more arid climate zones, eutrophication might be further recognized, and various ecological consequences have been
exacerbated through reduced water levels, and in wet areas by reported (Eerkes-Medrano et al., 2015; Mani et al., 2015). Rivers
increasing external loading of nutrients. In temperate zones, cli- and effluents have been identified as major pathways for
mate change–induced precipitation changes will substantially microplastics of terrestrial origin (Fischer et al., 2016; Mani et al.,
increase riverine total nitrogen loading by the end of the century, 2015). Recent research now shows large lakes also contain
such as within the continental United States (Sinha et al., 2017, microplastic pollution, with the highest concentrations in heavily
p. 201). The interactions between climate and nutrients might urbanized regions, such as Toronto (Canada) and Detroit (USA)
induce major changes in the trophic structure by shifting domi- (Eriksen et al., 2013). For example, Castañeda et al., (2014) found
nance to small omnivorous fish, leading to higher predation on that a liter of sediment from the St. Lawrence River contained up
zooplankton and benthic animals and subsequently less chances to 1,000 spherical microplastics – on par with the world’s most
of controlling nuisance algae (Moss et al., 2011). Furthermore, in polluted marine sediments. Volunteer beach cleanups show that
large lakes with extensive shipping, climate change may enhance typically more than 80% of anthropogenic litter along the shoreli-
the risk of species invasion and more importantly dominance of nes of large lakes is comprised of plastics (Driedger et al., 2015).
these invasive species. Plans to combat and curtail plastic debris pollution (i.e., by reduc-
ing debris input, but also tracking and removal efforts) in large
Shoreline modification and wetland loss in the catchment lakes will come at a significant economic cost, likely in excess of
$400 million annually (Driedger et al., 2015).
Wetland loss in catchments and shoreline modifications are
likely to be an emerging threat in large lakes, particularly in areas Micropollutants
experiencing human population growth. Although the loss of
coastal wetlands in the Laurentian Great Lakes was first docu- In the past decade, micropollutants, i.e., chemicals that occur in
mented in 1982 (Whillans, 1982), there are few studies that quan- the environment at trace levels mostly from anthropogenic
tify wetland loss, due to the difficulty in quantifying dynamic sources, including heavy metals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and
baseline conditions in the presence of naturally fluctuating water cosmetics have become recognized as key threats for aquatic
levels. Whillans (1982) estimated that 57% of coastal wetlands ecosystems (Blair et al., 2013; Chèvre and Gregorio, 2013;
were lost along the Canadian shoreline of Lake Ontario, and losses Codling et al., 2018; Metcalfe et al., 2019; Schwarzenbach et al.,
approached 100% in heavily settled areas. 2006). For example, certain synthetic and natural compounds, col-
Coastal wetlands of large lakes support essential ecosystem ser- lectively known as endocrine-disrupting compounds, could mimic
vices, including wildlife habitat, fisheries, and water quality natural hormones in the endocrine systems of animals and human-
improvement, which can all be substantially degraded as a result beings. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) con-
of wetland loss (Sierszen et al., 2012, 2019; Trebitz and Hoffman, sumed by humans are discharged into surface waters, as they are

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
12 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx

not degraded by wastewater treatment plants (Kümmerer, 2008). restoration and resiliency-enhancing programs require increased
These products have been collectively grouped under the term human capital and financial investments. Establishing systems
‘‘Chemicals of Emerging Concern” and are receiving attention for efficient management is expensive and is generally the privi-
owing to their potential adverse effects on animals and humans lege of wealthier countries with more stable governance institu-
at trace concentrations in large lakes (Huerta Buitrago et al., tions and greater access to capital. But the future cost of inaction
2016; Rahman et al., 2009; Snyder et al., 2003). There are some is too high, perhaps especially for developing countries, and action
natural sources for these compounds (e.g., Rogers et al., 2011). has to be taken.
While we do not have a way to clearly distinguish anthropogenic Current efforts are challenging because of the continuous arri-
from natural sources at this juncture, it is clear that some popula- val of new threats; Future developments may hold many ecological
tions favored by eutrophication and climate change (e.g., Microcys- surprises (Filbee-Dexter et al., 2017) because of climate change,
tis spp.) produce some of these chemicals. legacy of past perturbations, and combined stressors. Thus, large
Micropollutants can have wide-ranging impacts on freshwater lakes will require more intense conservation efforts in a warmer
organisms, in particular because some compounds bioaccumulate and more anthropic world to achieve acceptable water quality.
along the trophic chain (Mazzoni et al., 2018; McGoldrick and Major challenges remain to reduce pollution (diffuse nutrient
Murphy, 2016; Rajeshkumar and Li, 2018; Visha et al., 2018). inputs, but also micro-pollutants and micro-plastics). Moreover,
Micropollutants can affect the survival and behavior of aquatic the lack of knowledge can also limit the diagnosis of causes and
species (Amiard-Triquet et al., 2015; Chèvre and Gregorio, 2013), therefore lead to misapplied management. It is time for humanity
alter the reproductive system of aquatic organisms, and promote to pay close attention to the signals from lakes, to correctly diag-
the development of resistant bacterial strains, representing a nose problems, and to design actions to preserve and/or recover
health risk to humans (McGowan et al., 2007; Uslu, 2012). The lake systems. Thus, the programs to restore large lakes should be
occurrence of a combination of micropollutants is particularly con- maintained and strengthened.
cerning, even if the concentrations of the micropollutants alone are Plans to combat and curtail emerging threats, such as plastic
below the national or international threshold for freshwater sys- debris pollution in large lakes, will come at significant economic
tems; the mixture of micropollutants may synergize effects, engen- cost (Driedger et al., 2015). The large costs associated with conser-
dering the ‘‘something from nothing” effect (Chèvre and Gregorio, vation efforts are legitimate concerns by the citizens who bear
2013). those costs, and who need to understand the pertinence and sus-
tainability of such programs. Furthermore, decisions about long-
term strategies will have to be supported by future generations.
Conclusions and perspectives
As such, lake managers need to consider if these strategies can
be supported in the future and at what cost, and they should be
The demands of a growing global population with rapidly
able to demonstrate the value of such costs as well as the social,
changing consumption patterns for food, mobility, and energy are
cultural, economic, and ecological implications from temporary
exerting ever-increasing pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems and
or permanent interruptions in ecosystem services due to inade-
their life-supporting services (GMT 8, 2015). In combination with
quate investment in policies and programs for large lake monitor-
climate change, these changes raise concerns about the current
ing, restoration, and protection.
ecological status of large lakes and the services they can provide.
Each lake has its own history of anthropogenically-induced
These changes require limnologists and paleolimnologists to eval-
change, requiring strategies that are tailored to its particular cir-
uate and warn about the current state of ecosystems and their abil-
cumstances. For instance, point sources of nutrients were a leading
ity to provide ecosystem services that support humanity during its
cause lake degradation in more industrialized nations, causing for
societal, technological, and demographic transitions.
instance a historical degradation of oxygen conditions in Europe
(Jenny et al. 2016b). Treatment plans have been reducing these
Lessons learned from past management practices nutrient supplies in many cases over the last decades, but point
sources are now progressively increasing to affect the quality of
Some large lakes are ecosystems that humans have employed the environment for various systems in developing nations, where
enormous efforts over the last decades to sustain critical services population is growing (e.g. Fig. 2). On the opposite, industrialized
such as drinking water. Some generalizations of lessons can be nations are facing today high and still growing diffuse supplies of
drawn from our synthesis on lake management, but the following nutrient principally due to agricultural fertilisation, whereas fertil-
conclusions are far from exhaustive: isation is still low (but growing) in developing nations.
Restoration efforts have often achieved success: Catastrophic Another example concerns lake degradation in emerging econo-
degradation of lakes occurred in the past, such as acidification or mies which is occurring in a warmer climate than similar earlier
eutrophication, but humans have achieved restoration of many of degradation in Europe and North America where management pro-
these impacted large lakes. Success in mitigating eutrophication grams started decades ago; a case in point is the recent alarm
in European large lakes or the Laurentian Great Lakes include about eutrophication in China, while it was already 60 years ago
strong examples for other countries facing a current increase in that eutrophication became a severe concern in Europe
nutrient loading of their waterbodies. International treaties have (Vollenweider, 1968).
been signed for many large lakes with shorelines that belong to
multiple countries (see examples in Table 3). Conservation policies for the world’s large lakes
Complete restoration to historic or pristine conditions is hard to
achieve and sometimes even fails, but our examples show that the Large lakes are an important category of ecosystems that need
worst can be avoided. The questions are still open in terms of what to be more explicitly integrated into international as well as local
can be a balanced target? And how do we help recover self- policy instruments. Their global conservation in the face of ongoing
functioning for freshwater ecosystems through restoration? And change, as well as recovery of the services provided by these valu-
who decides? While lakes can be restored to reinvigorate degraded able ecosystems, requires attention to policy actions in four main
ecosystem services, past lake degradation always has lingering categories: mitigation of multiple stressors, adaptation to change,
implications; ecologically the systems are weakened, with conservation measures to protect and restore environmental val-
increased vulnerability to new threats, and economically, these ues, and knowledge production and dissemination.

Please cite this article as: J.-P. Jenny, O. Anneville, F. Arnaud et al., Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes, Journal of
Great Lakes Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006
 J.-P. Jenny et al. / Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (xxxx) xxx 13

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