UVA-S-0367

Jan. 10, 2022

Driving Waymo’s Fully Autonomous Future

There isn’t a chance to build, develop, deploy and introduce this technology again. You have to do it right the
first time. You have to build public trust, you have to gain acceptance, you have to make sure the regulatory
landscape is ripe and right for it. Then you launch what we believe will be a very successful service, and then
you can scale from there.
—Tekedra Mawakana, Waymo Co-CEO1

On an early morning in July 2021, Tekedra Mawakana walked into Waymo’s headquarters in downtown
Mountain View, California. Scanning the office floor, Mawakana noticed mostly empty desks—Waymo
employees had just begun returning to in-person work from the COVID-19 pandemic.2 It was her third full
month on the job as co-CEO.

Mawakana was named co-CEO alongside Dmitri Dolgov in April 2021. She previously served three years
as Waymo’s chief operations officer (COO), and Dolgov was chief technology officer (CTO) and a longtime
engineering leader at Waymo. A pioneering company in the autonomous vehicle (AV) space, Waymo was a
subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. (Alphabet), a holding company and parent to Google.

Waymo had debuted several notable AV innovations, including fully autonomous driving software; a
commercial ride-hailing service in metro Phoenix, Arizona; partnerships with well-respected car manufacturers
like Daimler AG, Nissan-Renault, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volvo; and an autonomous trucking and last-mile
delivery pilot service in test markets in three US states. All together, these varied initiatives put Waymo in a
market-leading position in the race to automate driving.

As a graduate of Columbia Law School, Mawakana had senior leadership experience in regulated industries
well before her tenure at Waymo. She had served in vice president of public policy and deputy general counsel
roles at eBay, Yahoo!, and AOL. Her promotion to chief executive at Waymo was groundbreaking on several
fronts; Mawakana became Waymo’s first black and first female CEO. She was both a rising star and an outlier

1 Kirsten Korosec, “Nuro Can Now Operate and Charge for Autonomous Delivery Services in California,” TechCrunch, December 23, 2020,

https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/nuro-can-now-operate-and-charge-for-autonomous-delivery-services-in-california/?guccounter=1 (accessed
Dec. 3, 2021).
2 Bruce Japsen, “Alphabet’s Verily Lands First Employer for Its Back-to-Work Covid-19 Vetting System,” Forbes, September 4, 2020,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/09/04/alphabets-verily-lands-first-employer-for-back-to-work-covid-19-health-vetting-
system/?sh=7343282f3ea6 (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

This public-sourced case was prepared by Jack McDermott (MBA/MEd ’21) and Michael Lenox, Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration.
Although the data and protagonist are real, the situation is fictionalized, and Tekedra Mawakana’s thoughts and actions in this case are either based on
publicly available information or were created by the authors for pedagogical reasons. It was written as a basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate
effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation Copyright  2022 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville,
VA. All rights reserved. To order copies, send an email to [email protected]. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden
School Foundation. Our goal is to publish materials of the highest quality, so please submit any errata to [email protected].
Page 2 UVA-S-0367

in Silicon Valley, where technology companies had struggled to increase diversity and representation at their
highest ranks.

Mawakana assumed leadership of Waymo during a critical time. A series of recent crashes and fatalities
involving Tesla’s Autopilot system prompted US safety officials to conduct sweeping investigations into the
AV industry. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic forced Waymo to suspend its burgeoning ride-hailing
operations in Phoenix and to shift the whole company to remote work. Waymo also faced increasing
competition from upstarts and established players across its vast footprint in AV software, services, and
partnerships.

Mawakana had the experience to lead Waymo into a more regulated and more competitive future. But she
faced a number of critical decisions that required resolution. Above all else, in which direction should Mawakana
steer Waymo?

Company History

In 2005, Sebastian Thrun, director of Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, won a Grand
Challenge from the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) by successfully leading
a team to deploy and navigate an AV through the Nevada desert. Thrun and his Stanford team were quickly
recruited by Google to spearhead the technology giant’s efforts to build a self-driving car within its secretive
“moonshot” division, known as Google X. Two years later, Chris Urmson and a Carnegie Mellon team won
the Grand Challenge, this time hosted in an urban setting in Southern California. The win highlighted the rapid
progress of AVs in navigating increasingly complex environments. Urmson would lead Google X’s self-driving-
car project following Thrun’s departure in 2014.

At Google, the self-driving-car project team focused on leveraging the company’s proprietary technologies,
such as Google Maps and Street View, to develop vehicles capable of navigating any terrain, traffic, routes, and
weather without human intervention. In its first year, the team tested a fleet of adapted Toyota Prius cars
outfitted with driverless kits in the San Francisco Bay Area. By 2012, Google announced that its self-driving-
car project had logged more than 300,000 highway miles without any human assistance.3

In late 2015, Google recruited automotive-industry veteran John Krafcik as its newest project chief. A
Stanford mechanical-engineering grad with an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management, Krafcik knew
the car industry inside and out. He had completed stints at Ford, Hyundai, and TrueCar, a car price comparison
website. That same year, Google completed the first fully autonomous ride on public roads in Austin, Texas,
garnering national media attention in the process because the supervising driver on board was blind.4

In 2016, Google’s parent company, Alphabet, spun out its self-driving-car division to form Waymo as an
independent, wholly owned subsidiary. The name represented a “new way forward for mobility.” Waymo’s
mission was “to make it safe and easy for people and things to get where they’re going.”5 The newly formed
company had its sights set on moving anything to anywhere with full autonomy.

Waymo introduced its first commercial ride-hailing pilot in Phoenix in 2017. The city was selected for its
dry and consistent weather, wide streets, gradual terrain, grid-like layout, and business-friendly regulations. Early

3 Nathan Ingraham, “Google’s Self-Driving Cars Have Logged More than 300,000 Miles on the Road,” Verge, August 7, 2012,

https://www.theverge.com/2012/8/7/3226056/google-self-driving-car-300000-test-miles (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

4 Alex Davies, “Google’s Self-Driving Car Company Is Finally Here,” Wired, December 13, 2016, https://www.wired.com/2016/12/google-self-

driving-car-waymo/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

5 “Seeing the Road Ahead,” Waymo website, https://waymo.com/company/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
Page 3 UVA-S-0367

beta users could request a ride from Waymo’s mobile app, just like requesting an Uber or Lyft. A Chrysler
Pacifica minivan would arrive using a fully autonomous driving system supervised by a “concierge” driver who
sat in the front seat to monitor key safety systems and answer riders’ questions. Waymo’s ride-hailing service
enabled its fleet to quickly test new algorithms under real-world conditions. The rides also helped Waymo in
building public support for its autonomous endeavors, knowing that government officials were actively
discussing how to regulate the novel industry.

In 2018, Waymo revealed an autonomous trucking project based in Atlanta, Georgia. The foray into
commercial trucking brought together Waymo’s existing autonomous driver system with additional support
from Google Cloud’s logistics technology to intelligently allocate loads and manage shipping routes. After the
announcement, Morgan Stanley valued Waymo at $175 billion based on expectations that roughly $90 billion
would come from the company’s trucking and last-mile delivery services by 2040.6

Autonomous Vehicles

Often referred to as self-driving cars, AVs had advanced from science fiction to real-word use over several
decades. Each successive development in automated driving systems—from adaptive cruise control to forward
collision warnings—brought the auto industry closer to a future of fully autonomous vehicles. The question
was no longer if AVs would occupy roads and highways, but how, when, and who would realize the full value of
mass-market AVs.

By 2021, autonomous technologies were impacting consumers’ lives in numerous ways, even if few people
had taken a ride in an AV. Automated systems used advanced sensors and artificial intelligence (AI) to complete
tasks like picking items from the shelves of an Amazon warehouse and assisting surgeons in procedures that
required intricate movements. AVs were finding commercial applications in areas such as agricultural
(autonomous tractors) and retail (small autonomous delivery vehicles).

As for automobiles, customer attitudes about car ownership and use were changing rapidly. A growing
population of younger, more urban consumers were likely to say that mobility is more important than car
ownership.7 Technology-enabled ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft had grown into multi-billion-dollar
businesses. In 2014, American commuters spent nearly seven billion hours in traffic. AVs held the potential to
free up this time. AVs also promised to connect millions of Americans living with disabilities or those living in
communities underserved by public transportation to improved mobility.8

AVs further promised to save lives and make roads safer for drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. More than
35,000 lives were lost per year in the United States as a result of auto accidents, and 94% of serious car crashes
were due to human error. While the number of vehicles on American roads had steadily increased in recent
years, vehicle fatalities had either decreased or remained at consistent levels (Exhibit 1). Proponents of AVs

6 Darrell Etherington, “Waymo and Google Launch a Self-Driving Truck Pilot in Atlanta,” TechCrunch, March 9, 2018,
https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/09/waymo-and-google-launch-a-self-driving-truck-pilot-in-atlanta/; Alan Ohnsman, “Why Waymo Is Worth a
Staggering $175 Billion Even before Launching Its Self-Driving Cars,” Forbes, August 7, 2018,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/08/07/why-waymo-is-worth-a-staggering-175-billion-even-before-launching-its-self-driving-
cars/?sh=5a5cc870dd3a (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
7 “Mobility Services Becoming More Popular as Alternatives to Vehicle Ownership, According to Cox Automotive Study,” Cox Automotive 2018

Service Industry Study, August 23, 2018, https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/evolution-of-mobility-study-alternatives-to-ownership/ (accessed Dec. 3,

2021).
8 “Automated Vehicles for Safety,” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-

vehicles-safety (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 4 UVA-S-0367

believed they could lead to an accident-free world.9 In 2020, Waymo reported only 21 driver “disengagements”
where the driver felt it necessary to take control of the vehicle.10 Last, advocates for combating climate change
viewed AVs as an important driver of electric vehicle adoption and a step toward decarbonizing the
transportation industry.11

Yet critics raised concerns about the readiness of American streets and highway infrastructure to safely
support AVs. Some critics warned against the use of personal and real-time location data used as inputs for AV
algorithms. Others questioned whether AVs would worsen traffic delays, as people would adjust their behavior
and increasingly opt for always-ready transit available with one tap. Some argued that AVs would contribute to
increased inequality in access to modern transit and could promote urban sprawl and gentrification, as
commuters moved ever farther away from city and town centers.12

Technology

Autonomous driving systems were categorized from Level 0 to Level 5 (Exhibit 2). Level 0 systems
included common driver-assistance features like blind-spot detection and rear backup sensors, alerting drivers
who remained in full control of the vehicle. Level 1 and 2 systems included driver-assistance features where the
system could take control of steering, acceleration, and breaking. Such features were becoming more common
on the road. McKinsey predicted that by 2030, 45% of new global car sales could reach Level 3, where the
system was fully driving the vehicle, but a driver was still required to take control when prompted.13 Waymo’s
technology placed its AVs at Level 4, where the car was fully autonomous and did not require a driver, but had
safety features such as remote assistance and geofencing to limit operation. Level 5 represented fully
“driverless” automation where an AV navigated and responded to changes in its driving environment without
human intervention.

Autonomous driving systems used dozens of advanced sensors to enable the AV to steer, brake, and react
to surrounding objects. Three core technologies allowed the system to form a three-dimensional model of a
vehicle’s driving environment: cameras, lidar, and radar. Additional technologies, such as global positioning
systems (GPS), microphones, gyroscopes, and inertial-measurement sensors offered further detail about the
vehicle’s environment.14 With input from these sensors, AVs navigated their physical environments by
continuously adjusting course, guided by AI and geospatial algorithms that had been trained on large data sets
of real-world and simulated driving situations.

Vehicle cameras included high-definition, long-range, and peripheral lenses. At Waymo, AVs were
equipped with 29 cameras integrated together to form a 360-degree view of the driving environment. Waymo

9 Michelle Bertoncello and Dominik Wee, “Ten Ways Autonomous Driving Could Redefine the Automotive World,” McKinsey & Company, June

1, 2015, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/ten-ways-autonomous-driving-could-redefine-the-automotive-
world (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
10 Andrew J. Hawkins, “Waymo and Cruise Dominated Autonomous Testing in California in the First Year of the Pandemic,” Verge, February 11,

2021, https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/11/22276851/california-self-driving-autonomous-cars-miles-waymo-cruise-2020 (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

11 “Autonomous Vehicles: State of the Technology and Potential Role as a Climate Solution,” Environmental and Energy Study Institute, March 2021,

https://www.eesi.org/files/IssueBrief_Autonomous_Vehicles_2021.pdf (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

12 Ralph McLaughlin, “How Driverless Cars Could Drive Even Deeper Economic Inequality,” Fast Company, November 6, 2017,

https://www.fastcompany.com/40490471/how-driverless-cars-could-drive-even-deeper-economic-inequality; Katherine Shaver, “City Planners Eye

Self-Driving Vehicles to Correct Mistakes of the 20th-Century Auto,” Washington Post, July 20, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/
2019/07/20/city-planners-eye-self-driving-vehicles-correct-mistakes-th-century-auto/ (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
13 Troy Baltic, Alex Cappy, Russell Hensley, and Nathan Pfaff, “The Future of Mobility Is at Our Doorstep,” McKinsey & Company, December

2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Automotive%20and%20Assembly/Our%20Insights/The%20future%20of%20
mobility%20is%20at%20our%20doorstep/The-future-of-mobility-is-at-our-doorstep.ashx (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
14 Katie Burke, “How Does a Self-Driving Car See?,” NVIDIA, April 15, 2019, https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/15/how-does-a-self-driving-

car-see/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 5 UVA-S-0367

reported that its cameras could see a stop sign from 500 meters away.15 When autonomous driving systems
detected an object, cameras collected image data so that computer vision algorithms could identify each object
and direct the vehicle to respond as needed. Cameras also captured invaluable images that, when synced with
internal computing data, could recreate any incident or driving scenario to continuously improve its machine-
learning systems or to provide accident documentation. Cameras had several limitations, primarily their
potential to be obstructed by common weather conditions like rain, fog, or snow.

To complement cameras, many AVs included “light detection and ranging” sensors, better known as lidar.
Lidar was an advanced technology that used pulsed lasers to create three-dimensional models of real-world
shapes and objects.16 Developed by NASA in the 1990s, lidar was capable of sending millions of pulses per
second to map nearby cars, people, and other objects during the day and in the dark of night. Lidar provided
AVs with near and wide detection sensors, which let AVs sense their immediate proximity in tight urban parking
spaces and to spot highway debris from 300 meters away.

Waymo unveiled its fifth-generation Waymo Driver system in 2020. It included four perimeter lidar sensors
and a roof-mounted wide sensor to provide a 360-degree view around every vehicle. Tesla and its CEO, Elon
Musk, were skeptical of lidar, criticizing its cost and its limited ability to differentiate between harmful and
harmless objects. Lidar could sense an object obstructing the road but could not distinguish an air-filled balloon
from a rock. Yet lidar was becoming increasingly common on AVs, as its cost decreased from approximately
$75,000 per unit down to $7,500 in the years leading up to 2021.17

If cameras provided an image and lidar made out the shape of an object, radar gave AV algorithms a sense
of an object’s speed and direction. Radar could detect whether objects were moving, barely moving, or at rest
in relation to an AV. Developed in the 1930s to detect ships, aircraft, and weather formations, radar transmitted
radio waves that returned with precise velocity and location information even in poor-visibility settings where
cameras could fail. As of 2021, radar systems could reach hundreds of meters ahead of a vehicle and could fit
in compact devices mounted to a vehicle’s body.18

To train AI algorithms for automated driving systems, developers used simulations to improve the accuracy
and reliability of their automated driving models. Simulated environments provided millions of unique
combinations of different streets, traffic, weather conditions, and external events—for example, a child chasing
a ball into a road or a bicyclist slowly rolling through a stop sign—that would prove difficult for real-world
sensors to experience with frequent occurrences. Testing on public roads often required human supervision,
permits, hardware maintenance, and updates, all representing constraints not found in simulated environments.
Simulations were widely used in other industries, such as aerospace and defense, that required extreme testing
in highly unique physical settings.

At Waymo, engineering leaders chose to invest heavily in simulation to train Waymo Driver’s AI. The
company initially developed a proprietary simulation software, “CarCraft,” followed by a more robust virtual
environment, “SimulationCity,” that gave Waymo’s systems enough real-world fidelity to be valuable for AV

15 Satish Jeyachandran, “Introducing the 5th-Generation Waymo Driver: Informed by Experience, Designed for Scale, Engineered to Tackle More

Environments,” Waymo website, March 4, 2020, https://blog.waymo.com/2020/03/introducing-5th-generation-waymo-driver.html (accessed Dec. 3,

2021).
16 Chris Teague, “What Lidar Is and Why It’s Important for Autonomous Vehicles,” Autoweek, April 27, 2021,
https://www.autoweek.com/news/a36190274/what-lidar-is/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
17 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johanmoreno/2021/01/22/waymo-ceo-says-tesla-is-not-a-competitor-gives-estimated-cost-of-autonomous-
vehicles/?sh=24f12a31541b (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
18 Johan Moreno, “Waymo CEO Says Tesla Is Not a Competitor, Gives Estimated Cost of Autonomous Vehicles, Forbes, January 22, 2021,

https://www.britannica.com/technology/radar/History-of-radar (accessed Dec. 3, 2021); https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/15/how-does-a-

self-driving-car-see/.
Page 6 UVA-S-0367

perception and decision-making.19 Whereas Waymo’s vehicles logged just over 20 million miles on real-world
streets by 2020, they simulated more than 15 billion miles by this time.20 Waymo’s simulations also benefited
from access to Alphabet’s leading technical infrastructure and teams of AI and machine-learning engineers.21

Regulation

Opening roads to AVs faced several regulatory hurdles. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, welcomed Uber’s
driverless car experiments in 2016. Only a year later, residents soured on Uber’s presence, citing the few, if any,
jobs created and increased fees for Uber’s AV ride-hailing service, which had been pitched as “free” during
initial public meetings.22 Uber was also active in testing its self-driving capabilities in metro Phoenix. Pilot tests
there resulted in the first recorded fatality involving a driverless vehicle in 2018, after an Uber car operating in
self-driving mode struck and killed a 53-year-old woman who was crossing the street. An Uber safety driver
was onboard at the time, but was watching television on her smartphone when the accident occurred.23 Uber
suspended its tests in Arizona and California following the fatal crash.

After these events, Waymo faced increasing reports of harassment for its AVs in Arizona, including having
rocks thrown at the vehicles and several being chased and forced to turn off the road. One man was arrested
after pointing a handgun at a test driver inside a Waymo Chrysler Pacifica minivan.24

The rise of AVs introduced a number of ethical concerns. If algorithms programmed by software
developers could predict risks on the road, then how would AVs respond when faced with certain crash
scenarios that threatened the lives of pedestrians and passengers? One Mercedes-Benz executive sparked
controversy after suggesting in a 2016 Car and Driver magazine that the luxury automaker’s AVs would always
prioritize the lives of passengers first: “If you know you can save at least one person, at least save that one. Save
the one in the car,” Christopher von Hugo said. “If all you know for sure is that one death can be prevented,
then that’s your first priority.”25

Also of concern was the loss of livery and truck-driving jobs. AV trucking upstarts raced to replace truck
drivers with autonomous driving systems. Many experts predicted that fully driverless trucks would be the first
AVs to experience mass adoption, perhaps by 2027.26 Because of this, reports predicted that America’s
3.5 million commercial truck drivers were at significant risk of economic displacement and total job loss.
Trucking was the most common occupation in 29 US states.

By 2021, federal, state, and municipal agencies worked to balance innovation while establishing clear
guidelines for public safety. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) attempted to
formulate a guiding framework for the deployment of AVs, including updates to federal motor vehicle

19 Mike Oitzman, “Waymo SimulationCity Is a Powerful Tool for Testing Autonomous Driving,” Robot Report, July 6, 2021,

https://www.therobotreport.com/waymo-simulationcity-is-a-powerful-tool-for-testing-autonomous-driving/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

20 Andrew J. Hawkins, “Welcome to Simulation City, the Virtual World Where Waymo Tests Its Autonomous Vehicles,” Verge, July 6, 2021,

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/6/22565448/waymo-simulation-city-autonomous-vehicle-testing-virtual (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

21 “Simulation City: Introducing Waymo’s Most Advanced Simulation System Yet for Autonomous Driving,” Waymo website, July 6, 2021,

https://blog.waymo.com/2021/06/SimulationCity.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

22 Cecilia Kang, “Pittsburgh Welcomed Uber’s Driverless Car Experiment. Not Anymore,” CNBC, May 22, 2017,
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/22/pittsburgh-welcomed-ubers-driverless-car-experiment-not-anymore.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
23 Matt McFarland, “Uber Self-Driving Car Operator Charged in Pedestrian Death,” CNN Business, September 18, 2020,
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/cars/uber-vasquez-charged/index.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
24 Ryan Randazzo, “A Slashed Tire, a Pointed Gun, Bullies on the Road: Why Do Waymo Self-Driving Vans Get So Much Hate?,” AZ Central,

December 11, 2018, https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2018/12/11/waymo-self-driving-vehicles-face-harassment-road-rage-

phoenix-area/2198220002/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
25 Michael Taylor, “Self-Driving Mercedez-Benzes Will Prioritize Occupant Safety over Pedestrians,” Car and Driver, October 7, 2016,

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15344706/self-driving-mercedes-will-prioritize-occupant-safety-over-pedestrians/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

26 “Truck Driver Is the Most Common Job in 29 States,” FleetOwner, February 6, 2015, https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/21689896/truck-

driver-is-the-most-common-job-in-29-states; Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Andrew W. Hait, “Number of Truckers at an All-Time High,” United States
Census, June 6, 2019, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps-on-trucking.html (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
Page 7 UVA-S-0367

standards that required exemptions for companies testing on public roads.27 Yet there was little agreement
among agencies on these policies, as the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) openly criticized the
NHTSA for its hands-off approach to safety following several of Tesla’s high-speed-crash incidents.

Automakers and technology companies spent millions of dollars on government lobbying each year. In
2019, Waymo spent more than $600,000 lobbying in Washington.28 Some states, most notably Arizona and
California, acted quickly to spur innovation that accelerated companies’ testing and access to public roads.
Waymo launched its first ride-hailing pilot in Arizona after Governor Doug Doucey signed an executive order
in 2015.29 The order mandated that AVs follow all existing traffic laws observed by human drivers, but didn’t
establish new standards for the introduction of AVs in the years ahead.

By 2021, most states and federal agencies maintained a “wait and see” approach to granting open road
access to AVs. Senators John Thune, Republican from South Dakota, and Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan,
cosponsored a 2017 bill that sought to set federal guidelines for AVs, ease limits for on-road testing, and allocate
more than $100 billion in funding for American-made innovation in the AV space. Four years later, the bill had
yet to advance beyond initial hearings and introductory floor votes in Congress. Senator Thune put the limited
progress bluntly: “The U.S. regulatory framework has got to catch up with private sector innovation in order
for these technologies to advance.”30

Competition

In the AV space, start-ups and big tech companies challenged century-old auto companies from Detroit to
Berlin to Tokyo. Companies formed partnerships with leading universities, such as Carnegie Mellon University’s
Transportation Research Center and Stanford University’s Dynamic Design Lab. As Silicon Valley blitzed its
way into the auto industry, traditional car manufacturers did not sit by idly. For most of the 2010s, major car
manufacturers spun up self-driving divisions and actively invested in AV systems of their own. By 2021, Level 1
and Level 2 driver-assist features like adaptive cruise control, lane centering, and rear parking and blind-spot
alerts came standard with most new luxury vehicles.

However, many auto manufacturers lacked the AI, software, and advanced sensor-hardware-development
capabilities needed to compete in the race to Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy. Across the industry, traditional
carmakers like Volvo, Nissan, and Jaguar initially invested in AV projects of their own, only to partner with
Waymo or other technology companies as technical difficulties and costs mounted. Hyundai, Nissan, and Kia
engaged in talks with Apple to partner on the design and production of an electric AV, yet a final deal was
never reached.31

Many experts predicted that long-haul trucking, not ride-hailing or consumer automotive, would be the
first sector disrupted by AVs. Class 8 tractor trailers often traveled hundreds of miles without making so much
as a turn on interstate highways. With longer, straighter routes, freight lines and shippers could realize greater
efficiencies and cost savings with autonomous trucks. McKinsey & Company estimated that autonomous

27 Jack Caporal, Jasmine Lim, Sean Arrieta-Kenna, Will O’Neil, “Driving the Future of AV Regulations: Barriers to Large-Scale Development,” Center

for Strategic & International Studies, May 28, 2021, https://www.csis.org/analysis/driving-future-av-regulations-barriers-large-scale-development

(accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
28 “Client Profile: Alphabet Inc.,” Open Secrets, https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/clients/summary?cycle=2019&id=d000067823

(accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

29 Andrew J. Hawkins, “The Self-Driving Car War between Arizona and California Is Heating Up,” Verge, March 2, 2018,

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/2/17071284/arizona-self-driving-car-governor-executive-order (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

30 https://www.csis.org/analysis/driving-future-av-regulations-barriers-large-scale-development.
31 Sissi Cao, “Apple Has Found an Unlikely Partner to Make the First Apple Car,” Observer, April 16, 2021, https://observer.com/2021/04/apple-

car-near-manufacturing-deal-lg-after-broken-kia-hyundai-talk/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 8 UVA-S-0367

trucking could cut operating costs 45%, resulting in annual savings of $85 billion to $125 billion for the US
trucking industry.32

By 2021, AV trucking start-ups like Otto, Ike, TuSimple, and Embark descended on America’s trucking
market. TuSimple, a Chinese–American joint venture, became an early mover by partnering with UPS and the
US Postal Service. Amazon chose Embark as its pilot partner to move goods between warehouses. Aurora
inked partnerships with Volvo and Paccar, which combined to manufacture more than 50% of all class 8 trucks
sold in the United States. Meanwhile, Waymo committed to adapting its Waymo Driver technology for the
class-8 trucking market with Waymo Via. Daimler and Peterbilt Trucks both signed on with Waymo for pilots
in Texas.33

Meanwhile, a number of companies were making significant investments to lead in the AV consumer
automotive space. They included an interest mix of start-ups, established auto makers, and large technology
companies.

GM Cruise

In March 2016, General Motors (GM) announced it had acquired Cruise, a self-driving-car start-up based
in San Francisco. Cruise was Waymo’s biggest competitor in the commercial AV space, and it formed the core
of GM’s AV division. Cruise had spent years developing AV kits that enabled self-driving capabilities on third-
party cars. The company had successfully tested its AVs on millions of miles of public roads, including in its
home cities of San Francisco and Detroit. By 2021, Cruise had logged more than 2 million miles driven in San
Francisco, compared to only 83,000 by Waymo.34 Beyond leveraging GM’s assets, Cruise formed partnerships
with top car manufacturers and tech companies, including Honda and Microsoft.

In January 2020, GM unveiled Cruise Origin, designed as an AV at Level 4 to Level 5 and intended for use
in ride-hailing services. California regulators awarded Cruise the first permit for testing passenger rides without
a safety driver on public streets in June 2021, allowing Cruise to begin pilot services in California at no charge
to passengers.35 Unlike Waymo’s and Cruise’s original kits that were built to retrofit traditional cars for self-
driving uses, Cruise Origin was an all-electric, purpose-built AV that had no manual steering wheel for
passengers. The vehicle’s interior layout was designed as a shuttle to serve the fast-growing ride-hailing market.
With a $5 billion line of credit from GM, Cruise announced its plans to mass produce Cruise Origin by 2023.

Tesla

Since 2008, Tesla had disrupted traditional car manufacturers with fully electric vehicles. Tesla’s luxury cars
included many advanced technological features, including an “Autopilot” mode. Autopilot represented Level 2
driver-assistance autonomy, still requiring human intervention. In 2021, Tesla delivered 185,000 vehicles in the
first quarter—twice as many as the same quarter a year prior—which all came standard with Autopilot. Musk,

32 Aisha Chottani, Greg Hastings, John Murnane, and Florian Neuhaus, “Distraction or Disruption? Autonomous Trucks Gain Ground in US

Logistics,” McKinsey & Company, December 10, 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-

insights/distraction-or-disruption-autonomous-trucks-gain-ground-in-us-logistics (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
33 “Aurora Expands Autonomous Trucking Tests in Texas,” Transport Topics, May 27, 2021, https://www.ttnews.com/articles/aurora-expands-

autonomous-trucking-tests-texas (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

34 “Space Tourism Picks Up Steam, G-7’s 15% Global Minimum Corporate Tax Deal, Cruise Wins CA Pilot Permit to Offer Driverless Rides to the

Public,” 6Pages, June 11, 2021, https://www.6pages.com/3-shifts/2021/06/11/space-tourism-picks-up-steam-g-7s-15-global-minimum-corporate-tax-

deal-cruise-wins-ca-pilot-permit-to-offer-driverless-rides-to-the-public (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
35 “CPUC Approves First Driverless Autonomous Vehicle Service under Pilot Program Designed to Transform State’s Transportation System,”

California Public Utilities Commission, June 4, 2021, https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M387/K064/387064893.PDF

(accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
Page 9 UVA-S-0367

Tesla’s controversial cofounder and CEO, had announced the company’s intention to have “full self-driving”
(Level 5) cars on the road by the end of 2021.36

However, Tesla faced intense scrutiny after several fatal crashes during which its Autopilot system was
activated. These crashes included an August 2019 incident where a 15-year-old boy was killed after a Tesla
Model 3 sedan rear-ended the pickup truck he was traveling in on a California freeway. Data from the vehicle’s
computer indicated that neither the Autopilot system nor the driver slowed the car from 60 miles per hour until
just before impact. The NHTSA had launched more than a dozen investigations into Tesla’s Autopilot crashes
by 2021.37

While Musk predicted that fully self-driving cars would be ready in 2021 and tweeted about the near-term
possibilities of playing video games in a Tesla driven by Autopilot,38 internal emails to California regulators
revealed that Tesla was “firmly rooted” in Level 2 driver-assist autonomy in March 2021.39

Audi

Audi had developed Level 3 systems and tested its self-driving TTS Coupe over 12 miles of rugged terrain
to the summit of Colorado’s Pikes Peak as far back as 2010. By 2018, Audi sold the most advanced vehicle in
mass production with Level 2 AV capabilities. The Audi A8 let drivers to go entirely hands free up to 37 miles
per hour while the vehicle controlled itself.40 Audi formed partnerships with Aurora, an AV software start-up
founded by Chris Urmson—previously the director at Google X—and Nvidia, a Silicon Valley chipmaker. Audi
had set its sights on innovating its own version of premium driverless cars.

Ford

Ford had made headway on AV development by hiring several former Google X employees and partnered
with Chinese tech giant Baidu to incorporate its autonomous driving system in Ford vehicles.41 Ford committed
$1 billion over five years to accelerate its AV capabilities with Argo AI, an AV software developer that had
more than 700 employers in the United States and Germany.42 Ford also invested in Rivian, an electric vehicle
company, and committed itself to delivering a purpose-built AV car in 2021. At the same time, Ford CEO Jim
Hackett expressed doubt, saying the company had “overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles.”43

36 James Morris, “Why Is Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Only Level 2 Autonomous?,” Forbes, March 13, 2021,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2021/03/13/why-is-teslas-full-self-driving-only-level-2-autonomous/?sh=46bdf9b6a320 (accessed Dec.
3, 2021).
37 Neal E. Boudette, “Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills,” New York Times, July 5, 2021,

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/05/business/tesla-autopilot-lawsuits-safety.html?referringSource=articleShare (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

38 Kirsten Korosec, “Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years,” Fortune, December 21, 2015,

https://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/?xid=yahoo_fortune; Elon Musk (@elonmusk), “It will get absurdly good. Tesla AI/Autopilot
engineering is awesome! There’s some great AI out there, but can it self-drive while playing Cyberpunk … ?” Twitter, December 17, 2020,
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1339463726286729216 (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
39 Rob Stumpf, “Tesla Admits Current ‘Full Self-Driving Beta’ Will Always Be a Level 2 System: Emails,” Drive, March 8, 2021,

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

40 David Welch and Elisabeth Behrmann, “Who’s Winning the Self-Driving Car Race?,” Bloomberg, May 7, 2018,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-07/who-s-winning-the-self-driving-car-race (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
41 Sherisse Pham, “Ford and Baidu Will Develop Self-Driving Cars Together in China,” CNN, October 31, 2018,
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/tech/baidu-ford-cars/index.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
42 “Brief #31: Robotaxis, Local Delivery & the Future of Driverless Ground Vehicles,” 6Pages, April 28, 2020,
https://www.6pages.com/brief/2020/04/28/robotaxis-local-delivery-the-future-of-driverless-ground-vehicles (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
43 Ruth Reader, “Ford CEO Confession: We ‘Overestimated’ the Arrival of Self-Driving Cars,” Fast Company, April 10, 2019,

https://www.fastcompany.com/90332941/ford-ceo-confession-we-overestimated-the-arrival-of-self-driving-cars (accessed Dec. 23, 2021).

Page 10 UVA-S-0367

Uber and Lyft

By 2021, the US ride-hailing market had grown into a duopoly. Uber and Lyft combined to own 99% of
annual consumer spending on shared rides, and even as rideshare volume grew, both companies’ losses
mounted (Exhibit 3).44 Both companies invested in AV technologies for several years, but reconsidered their
respective courses of action in 2020 and 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic had decimated the ride-hailing
industry: daily ridership levels had dropped 45% overall and as much as 70% to 90% in some cities. Reports
found that business travel for ride-hailing would not be expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.45

Lyft exited from its AV-development efforts in April 2021 by selling a division appropriately-named
“Level 5” to Toyota for $550 million in cash.46 A year earlier, Uber had made a similar move, selling its AV
technology to Aurora, a start-up founded by former Google X CTO Urmson. Exiting from AV research and
development signaled that Uber and Lyft were content with waiting to leverage capabilities created by other
firms. For now, Uber and Lyft focused on reaching profitability—both companies had yet to turn a profit by
2021—and regaining ridership following the pandemic.

Amazon Zoox

In March 2019, Amazon appeared to unveil drones that delivered packages to customers’ homes by air. A
viral social media video showing a giant blimp deploying miniature drones into the air gained millions of views.47
While the video proved to be fake—it had been created by a hobbyist animator—Amazon already held
numerous patents for drone-based delivery services dating as far back as 2016.48 The message was clear:
Amazon was preparing to enter the AV race, and its services would soon be arriving at a doorstep near you.

Back on the ground, Amazon made headlines again in 2020 by acquiring Zoox, a Bay Area–based AV ride-
hailing start-up).49 Reports stated that Amazon paid approximately $1.2 billion to acquire Zoox, a lower price
than expected for an AV company that had been valued at $3.2 billion in 2018.50 The move represented
Amazon’s biggest foray into the AV space after years spent testing air-delivery drones and sidewalk-delivery
bots, and investing in Aurora and partnering with Embark, the AV trucking company. At the time of
acquisition, Zoox already held approval for testing its ride-hailing pilot service with a safety driver in major
cities, including San Francisco and Las Vegas.

Unlike the Chrysler Pacifica minivans used by Waymo, Zoox built its AVs from the ground up by drawing
design inspiration from a horse-drawn carriage. The futuristic-looking vehicles featured sliding glass doors,
four-wheel steering that rotated to turn at any angle, and no definitive front or back. Four passengers could sit

44 Erick Burgueño Salas, “Leading Ride-Hailing Companies in U.S. by Market Share 2017–2021,” October 20, 2021,
https://www.statista.com/statistics/910704/market-share-of-rideshare-companies-united-states/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
45 Christopher R. Boll, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Adoption of Autonomous Vehicle Technology,” Foley, August 19, 2020,

https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2020/08/covid-19-adoption-autonomous-vehicle-technology; Levi Sumagaysay, “Uber and Lyft

Expect Ride-Hailing to Make a Sharp Recovery, but There Are Some Potential Roadblocks,” MarketWatch, April 28, 2021,
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-and-lyft-expect-ride-hailing-to-make-a-sharp-recovery-but-there-are-some-potential-roadblocks-
11619628643 (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
46 Andrew J. Hawkins, “Toyota Is Buying Lyft’s Autonomous Car Division for $550 Million,” Verge, April 26, 2021,
https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22404406/toyota-lyft-autonomous-vehicle-acquisition-amount-deal (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
47 Amanda Kooser, “Drone-Dropping Amazon Blimp Isn’t Coming for Your Soul,” CNet, April 2, 2019, https://www.cnet.com/news/drone-

dropping-amazon-blimp-isnt-coming-for-your-soul/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

48 https://www.cnet.com/news/drone-dropping-amazon-blimp-isnt-coming-for-your-soul/.
49 Amazon press release, “We’re Acquiring Zoox to Help Bring Their Vision of Autonomous Ride-Hailing to Reality,” June 26, 2020,

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality (accessed
Dec. 3, 2021).
50 Amir Efrati, “Amazon to Pay More than $1 Billion for Self-Driving Car Developer Zoox,” Information, June 25, 2020,

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazon-to-pay-more-than-1-billion-for-self-driving-car-developer-zoox (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 11 UVA-S-0367

face-to-face as the vehicle traveled toward its destination in whichever direction was optimal.51 Zoox vehicles
were also fully electric, producing zero emissions while driving up to 16 continuous hours on a single battery
charge.52 Developing the AV software and vehicles themselves was a costly endeavor, but one that Amazon,
with $21.3 billion in 2020 net income, was willing to embrace.53

Nuro

Nuro, an autonomous delivery start-up, was the first delivery service to receive a testing permit in
California. Launched in 2016 by several former Google and Waymo engineers, Nuro joined Waymo and Cruise
as the only companies permitted to test AVs on public roads at the time. While its small, windowless robots
moved slowly, Nuro was quick to announce last-mile delivery pilots with FedEx and Domino’s in Houston,
Texas, and same-day grocery-delivery services with Kroger in Scottsdale, Arizona.54

Internationally, Chinese AV delivery services JD.com, Meituan, and Neolix received green lights for testing
in pilot zones in Beijing.55 These services featured a fleet of robotic minivans, like Nuro’s, which navigated busy
sidewalks and bike lanes on college campuses, in office parks, and around residential buildings. Through mobile
apps, Chinese consumers could order items and request immediate delivery. Other vehicles behaved like mobile
vending machines, letting consumers scan a QR code to purchase ice cream or snacks.

For years, the cost of delivery was prohibitively expensive for many local retailers and restaurants. The rise
of AV delivery services like Nuro and Amazon “Prime Air”—the official name of Amazon’s drone-based
delivery service, which received federal approval for testing in August 2020—promised to move goods faster
and cheaper than human couriers.56 KPMG found that the cost for delivering small packages via AVs could be
as little as 4 to 7 cents per mile. The report predicted by 2040 nearly one million delivery bots would be operating
on US streets.57

Waymo Today

Waymo was organized into three core business lines: Waymo Driver, Waymo One, and Waymo Via. The
company employed approximately 2,300 workers from its headquarters in Mountain View, California, to its
field offices in Seattle, Austin, and Phoenix. Waymo had raised more than $6 billion in funding since March
2020—including $2.5 billion raised in June 2021—to maintain its three business units and continue forward on
the road to a driverless future.58

51 Alissa Walker, “Zoox Is Only Barely a Car, and That’s Its Most Promising Feature,” New York Magazine, December 29, 2020,

https://www.curbed.com/2020/12/zoox-self-driving-car-startup.html; Mark Sullivan, “The 200-Year-Old Inspiration for Zoox’s Radically New
Robotaxi,” May 3, 2021, https://www.fastcompany.com/90620763/zoox-autonomous-taxi-design-amazon (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
52 Kirsten Korosec, “How Amazon-Owned Zoox Designed Its Self-Driving Vehicles to Prevent Crashes,” TechCrunch, June 22, 2021,

https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/22/how-amazon-owned-zoox-designed-its-self-driving-vehicles-to-prevent-crashes-and-protect-if-they-do/
(accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
53 “Amazon Net Income 2006–2021,” Macrotrends, https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/net-income (accessed Dec. 3,

2021).
54 Joann Muller, “The Rise of the Delivery AVs,” Axios, November 28, 2018, https://www.axios.com/autonomous-vehicles-could-be-used-for-

deliveries-3fb12a24-3e66-4d8b-b678-a2fbb47d05cb.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

55 Rita Liao, “JD.com, Meituan and Neolix to Test Autonomous Deliverites on Beijing Public Roads,” TechCrunch, May 25, 2021,

https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/25/meituan-jd-com-and-neolix-begin-autonomous-deliveries-in-beijing/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

56 “Amazon Prime Air,” Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air/b?ie=UTF8&node=8037720011 (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
57 Gary Silberg, Tom Mayor, Todd Dubner, John Jullens, Jono M. Anderson, Katherine Black, Charlie Simpson, and Tobias Naujoks, “Autonomy

Delivers: An Oncoming Revolution in the Movement of Goods,” KPMG, 2018,

https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2018/autonomy-delivers-final-secured-web.pdf (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
58 Lauren Feiner, “Alphabet’s Self-Driving Car Company Waymo Announces $2.5 Billion Investment Round,” CNBC, June 16, 2021,

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/alphabets-waymo-raises-2point5-billion-in-new-investment-round.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 12 UVA-S-0367

Waymo Driver

Waymo Driver was the company’s proprietary technology system, enabling autonomous mobility in partner
vehicles. Waymo touted the system as the “World’s Most Experienced Driver,” a combination of hardware,
software, and computing that combined to drive AVs.59 Waymo Driver worked by equipping third-party
vehicles, such as the Jaguar I-PACE crossover SUV or Chrysler Pacifica minivans, with specially designed
hardware and sensors. The total cost of a vehicle outfitted with Waymo Driver was cited to be between $130,000
and $150,000 in 2021.60

Waymo Driver incorporated long-range and peripheral high-definition cameras, lidar sensors, GPS data,
and radar. Taken together, these mounted devices provided real-time data that allowed Waymo’s algorithms
and computing systems to make instantaneous adjustments as to a vehicle’s acceleration, breaking, and steering.
Between 2009 and 2021, Waymo reported that its Waymo Driver technology had driven 20 million miles safely
on public roads.61

Waymo One

Waymo One was the company’s AV ride-hailing service, which was limited to operating in metro Phoenix.
Since 2020, the service had been available through the Waymo app and was integrated with search results on
Google Maps. Waymo One’s fleet consisted of roughly 400 hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivans, most of which
were staffed by an onboard safety concierge. The ride-hailing service had yet to turn a profit.62 Waymo signaled
tentative plans to expand Waymo One’s service into new cities such as San Francisco, but provided no specific
timetable for its expansion.63

Waymo Via

Waymo Via was the company’s autonomous trucking and delivery line for transporting goods. In 2019,
Waymo announced it would pilot a version of the Waymo Driver technology adapted for class-8 tractor-trailer
trucks and local delivery vans. Waymo initially launched trucking pilots between Google data centers in Atlanta
before forging a partnership with J.B. Hunt in 2021. Jointly becoming North America’s fifth-largest commercial
trucking fleet, Waymo and J.B. Hunt ran tests on Interstate 45 shipping lanes across Texas. Trained safety
operators remained on board for any necessary interventions and for docking once the vehicle arrived at each
destination.64

Waymo Via announced its expansion with local delivery services. The company extended its partnership
with Daimler AG to outfit Ram ProMaster vans for last-mile delivery services. Waymo also launched pilots to
deliver UPS packages on existing Waymo One routes in Phoenix. Cruise followed with a strategic investment

59 https://blog.waymo.com/2020/03/introducing-5th-generation-waymo-driver.html.
60 “How Much Does a Self-Driving Car Cost?,” in Alan Lau, “Self-Driving Cars FAQ: How Far Away Is Far Away,” Motortrend, July 21, 2021,
https://www.motortrend.com/news/self-driving-cars-faq-can-i-buy-one/#:~:text=How%20Much%20Does%20a%20Self,the%20%24130%2C000
%2D%24150%2C000%20ballpark. (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
61 “Safety,” Waymo website, https://waymo.com/safety/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
62 Andrew J. Hawkins, “Uber and Lyft Are Getting Less Unprofitable, but COVID-19 Is Still a Drag on Their Business,” Verge, February 11, 2021,

https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/11/22277043/uber-lyft-earnings-q4-2020-profit-loss-covid (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

63 Mike Oitzman, “Waymo One Now Lets You Book Rides via Google Maps,” Robot Report, June 3, 2021, https://www.therobotreport.com/waymo-

one-now-lets-you-book-rides-via-google-maps/ (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

64 Morgan Forde, “Waymo Expands Self-Driving Technology to Class 8, Last Mile Delivery Trucks,” Supply Chain Dive, September 13, 2019,

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/waymo-expands-self-driving-technology-to-class-8-last-mile-delivery-trucks/562875/; Josh Fisher, “Waymo

AV Trucks to Move J.B. Hunt Freight in Texas,” FleetOwner, June 10, 2021, https://www.fleetowner.com/technology/autonomous-
vehicles/article/21166675/waymo-av-trucks-to-move-jb-hunt-freight-in-texas (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
Page 13 UVA-S-0367

from Walmart, which included a delivery pilot of its own for Walmart goods in Scottsdale, Arizona. By 2021,
Waymo, Cruise, and Nuro all ran AV delivery pilots within a few neighboring cities in and around Phoenix.65

The Autonomous Road Ahead

Since its earliest days as a secretive “moonshot” project within Google, Waymo was a leader in the
increasingly crowded and competitive AV space. Many analysts predicted that Waymo could be eyeing an initial
public offering (IPO) in 2022, but for now Mawakana had to drive the company toward a viable and defensible
growth strategy. The company was a part of Alphabet’s “Other Bets” division, which collectively lost more
than $3.8 billion in 2020.66

Waymo’s valuation once reached as high as $200 billion. After its most recent fundraising, this figure was
reported to be closer to $30 billion in 2021. This 85% decline indicated that investors had cooled after years-
long delays in go-to-market plans that were increasingly common in the AV space.67 While Waymo was an early
mover in AVs, the company’s future remained unclear, with increased regulation, competition, and concerns
of continued delays across its threefold business lines.

Tekedra Mawakana was now tasked with leading Waymo and its 2,300 employees on a pursuit that included
a ride-hailing service, software development and partnerships, and trucking and last-mile delivery services. It
was hard enough to get autonomous mobility right in one context, she thought, as Waymo continued pursuing
research and development on AV technologies across several fronts.

Mawakana knew that the road to an autonomous driving future had taken longer—and cost far more—
than most had expected. Analysts now predicted that companies pursuing AVs would be required to invest
another $6 billion to $10 billion just to maintain pace over the next few years.68 Mawakana recognized the need
to fend off competitors and select strategic priorities intentionally if Waymo was to deliver financial returns to
Alphabet and benefits to safer, more efficient transportation. It was time for Mawakana to steer Waymo on its
own new way forward.

65 John Furner, “Walmart Invests in Cruise, the All-Electric Self-Driving Company,” Walmart press release, April 15, 2021,

https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2021/04/15/walmart-invests-in-cruise-the-all-electric-self-driving-company; Alisa Priddle, “Fiat Chrysler

Partners with Waymo on Self-Driving Delivery Vans Now, More Later,” Motortrend, July 22, 2020, https://www.motortrend.com/news/fiat-chrysler-
fca-waymo-delivery-van-ram-promaster-autonomous-partnership/ (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
66 Ben Dickson, “Waymo’s Leadership Shift Spotlights Self-Driving Car Challenges,” VentureBeat, April 24, 2021,
https://venturebeat.com/2021/04/24/waymos-leadership-shift-spotlights-self-driving-car-challenges/; Kirsten Korosec, “The Station: Waymo Nabs
More Capital, Cruise Taps a $5B Credit Line and Hints about Argo’s Future,” TechCrunch, June 21, 2021, https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/21/the-
station-waymo-nabs-more-capital-cruise-taps-a-5b-credit-line-and-hints-about-argos-future/ (both accessed Dec. 3, 2021).
67 Richard Waters, “Valued at $30bn, Waymo Considers Its Next Move,” Financial Times, March 5, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/ed8dc4ca-

5eaf-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4 (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

68 Cade Metz, “The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On,” New York Times, May 24, 2021,

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/technology/self-driving-cars-wait.html (accessed Dec. 3, 2021).

Page 14 UVA-S-0367

Exhibit 1
Driving Waymo’s Fully Autonomous Future
US Vehicle Fatalities (Indexed), 1994–2019

Data source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “FARS Data Tables,” https://www-
fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx (accessed Dec. 6, 2021).
Page 15 UVA-S-0367

Exhibit 2
Driving Waymo’s Fully Autonomous Future
SEA International Levels of Driving Automation

Source: SAE International from SAE J3016 Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles 021-
April 30, 2021, https://saemobilus.sae.org/content/J3016_202104/; https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/sae-
j3016-visual-chart_5.3.21.pdf (accessed Dec. 23, 2021).
Page 16 UVA-S-0367

Exhibit 3
Driving Waymo’s Fully Autonomous Future
Uber versus Lyft: Global Ridership and Net Income Data

Data sources: Brian Dean, “Lyft 2021 User and Revenue Stats,” Backlinko, March 29, 2021, https://backlinko.com/lyft-users; Brian Dean, “Uber
Statistics 2021: How Many People Ride with Uber?,” Backlinko, March 23, 2021, https://backlinko.com/uber-users; “Lyft Net Income 2017–2021,”
Macrotrends, https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LYFT/lyft/net-income; “Uber Technologies Net Income 2017–2021,” Macrotrends,
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UBER/uber-technologies/net-income (all accessed Dec. 6, 2021).