BSBPMG632 Program Risk - Learner Guide - V1.04.22
BSBPMG632 Program Risk - Learner Guide - V1.04.22
BSBPMG632 –
Manage Program Risk
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Before going into the details of program risk management, you must first understand what risks are.
Risks at a program level are often defined as the likelihood and consequence of the occurrence of
any situation or object with future outcomes that might affect your overall program objective. A
program risk may stem from individual or cross-project risks that can impact your program, including
cost, performance and schedule. This can potentially expose your program to failure and losses. As
such, it is crucial to establish appropriate and reliable risk management processes. In essence, risk
management is a systematic process that aims to identify and evaluate risks to develop the proper
methods and techniques to respond appropriately to them.
Your focus as a program manager is to oversee and ensure individual projects related to the program
and other program tasks do not badly impact the organisation’s business goals and value. Your
responsibility in risk management is fundamentally to uncover risks before they occur and have a
plan for tackling them. Not addressing them will have significant consequences on your
organisation, including, but not limited to, lawsuits, financial losses, damaged reputation and
business failure. To avoid such consequences in your organisation, you must be able to gain the
knowledge and skillsets appropriate to manage program risks.
Planning
Phase
Implementati
Review Phase
on Phase
Each phase plays a different but essential role in the management of risks. The planning phase,
which seeks to uncover risks needing controls, will be the focus of the discussion in Chapter 1. The
implementation phase, which is the stage where you apply your planned risk management, will be
discussed in Chapter 2. Finally, the review phase, which is where you analyse program outcomes to
review the effectiveness of your planned strategies, will be discussed in Chapter 3.
This unit will help you gain all the essential knowledge and skills to make confident decisions in
performing all three phases in the context of your workplace or organisation's objectives in the
discussions ahead.
During the course of this unit, you are expected to demonstrate your ability to manage a program
risk on at least one occasion.
In this Learner Guide, you will learn about:
▪ direct planning of program risk management
▪ managing program risk
▪ assessing program risk-management outcomes.
identifing risk
analysing risk
evaluating risk
documenting risk
Sourced from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (6th Edition).
The consequences of not knowing how to develop a system with adequate built-in risk management
measures from the beginning would lead to shaky planning and development of your program.
▪ select and modify program risk methodology to match the context of risk
▪ consult with relevant stakeholders and identify, document and analyse program-level risks
▪ support and mentor project managers in the analysis, evaluation and treatment of risks
▪ confirm risk management is transparent and dynamic across the program so that risks are
assigned and managed in a timely manner
▪ develop and maintain a program risk-management system for effective management and
communication of risks, controls, treatments and outcomes to stakeholders across the
program.
None of the other risk management activities can start without a proper foundation on the identity
of risks. To manage risks effectively, you must first identify the risks that your organisation will face
regardless of the risk’s immediate probable impact. It is vital to ensure that accurate solutions will
be provided to properly identified problems.
Failing to identify risks at the planning phase or even during the actual management phase (as risk
identification is iterative) will create a disastrous domino effect on the other components of your
program risk management system. Risk identification is the first step that must be taken in risk
management. It is the process of recognising, describing and documenting risks that could disrupt
your program. It involves identifying the sources of risks, as well as the possible consequences.
Before performing risk identification to uncover risks, establishing the risk context is essential to risk
management and should be done before identifying the risks. In essence, risk context is the
environment in which your risk is confined.
There are certain risks that you are required to manage. Here are examples of risks, as well as the
laws that require you to manage them:
▪ workplace-related accidents and injury under the work health and safety (WHS) laws
▪ customer complaints regarding fair treatment under the Australian Consumer Law
These factors can easily change. However, these changes generally cannot be controlled by the
organisation itself. For example, the organisation cannot affect the laws to change the legal
requirements that they have to comply with.
Knowing this helps you see the whole picture of your project by examining the wider internal and
external environment within which your organisation operates. This also defines the scope of your
risk management strategy and sets the criteria against which the risks will be measured and
assessed.
Organisational Context
Strategic Context
▪ Organisational Context
Organisational context is also called internal context. It refers to the factors within the
organisation, including:
o internal stakeholders
o membership
o organisational processes.
As these are factors within the organisation, these are easily changeable by the
management. For example, the management can easily approve and implement changes to
alter their processes (e.g. hiring and procurement processes), therefore changing the
organisational context in which they are working.
▪ Strategic Context
Strategic context, also known as external context, refers to the environment in which the
organisation operates. It includes factors such as:
The next step that you should take after establishing the context of your risk is to identify the
program threats according to their category. The risk categories are often derived from risk sources.
Risk sources refer to data, events, or any points to be considered threats in your program. They can
either be in an organisational or strategic context.
Below are risks that you will typically encounter during the risk identification process.
▪ Potential Risks, as the name suggests, refer to all threats that stem directly from the risk
sources. All threats that will directly or indirectly affect the program, regardless of their
immediate effect, are identified as potential risks. Identifying potential risks enables you to
address program challenges in a proactive manner. It will help you prepare for every risk that
your program may face before such problems even begin to arise. Done right, you will be
able to spare yourself and the organisation from wasting more time, budget and effort
controlling unforeseen risks. In fact, potential risks are normally risks identified by asking:
While potential risks are just perceived risks, actual risks are threats that should already
require an action of control from you and your organisation.
In other words, a potential risk can become an actual risk in the following situations:
o When enforced to settle civil penalty orders due to noncompliance with Payroll Tax
Act 2007 (NSW), this can be controlled by paying fines.
Note: Some potential risks will not need further action; they are filtered out when tallying
actual risks. However, they are still documented for reference purposes.
▪ Residual Risks refer to risks that remain after planned controls have been taken. Even after
filtering out all risks you deem unacceptable (e.g., mitigate risks and avoid risks), with the
help of risk treatment strategies, you will not be able to eliminate risks entirely because it is
simply impossible.
risks
risks
Controls
risks
Residual Risk
o IT personnel was able to completely remove the virus, but files have already been
corrupted.
o Noncompliance with tax legislation violations was addressed. However, the amount
paid to settle the penalty was over the organisation’s budget.
There is no single best technique to risk identification. Still, there are various reliable tools and
techniques that you can use, either separately or collectively, to identify potential, actual and
residual risks. It is important to adopt the appropriate tools or techniques to identify these risks.
The risk management tools and techniques to identify risks will be shown below.
▪ SWOT Analysis
This technique involves looking at the internal and external factors affecting the organisation
or objectives following these aspects of a program: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats. This is a risk identification technique for assessing these four aspects of your
program. It is useful in revealing potential and actual program risks. To use SWOT analysis to
uncover risks, you must:
4. Survey the opportunities and threats associated with the program to uncover
potential external risks over which you often do not have direct control.
Strengths
• The new industrial sewing machines are proven to be five times faster than the
old heavy-duty models. It is said further to increase production time by a
minimum of 10 hours.
Weaknesses
• Only 42% of the employees know how to operate the new machines.
Opportunities
Threats
▪ PESTLE Analysis
PESTLE analysis is used to analyse the factors that influence a program externally. PESTLE
stands for Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal and Environmental. Each of
these serves as a factor for the program to gather ideas from external influences that may
impact the program strategies and decisions. Suppose the clothing and textile manufacturing
company wants to target to produce children’s clothing in addition to the maternity clothes
they made in the previous year. The table below shows how the PESTLE Analysis can be used
on the said program:
• Due to the evolving trade policies, the company must keep the Care Labelling for
Clothing and Textile Standards in mind since it is an offence to supply goods that do
not comply with the mandatory standards.
Economic
• Lack of competition within the state for companies producing children’s clothes
means more opportunity to infiltrate the area, increasing sales.
Social
Technological
• Producing children’s clothes follow the same procedures as that of adults in the
manufacturing process. The need to avail new industrial sewing machines to execute
the program is no longer necessary.
Legal
• Manufacturing children’s clothes must comply with the safety regulations such as the
Consumer Goods (Children’s Nightwear and Limited Daywear and Paper Patterns for
Children’s Nightwear) Safety Standard 2017.
Environmental
• Opting to manufacture children’s clothes using organic cotton, which can be found in
areas in Western Australia, will not only comply with textile testing regulations but
would also be sustainable and safe.
Interviewing involves soliciting information from the people around you who are generally
concerned with the program and who you think can give valuable information on uncovering
potential risks, actual and even residual risks.
1. Choosing a facilitator
The facilitator is responsible for guiding the discussions (i.e., ensuring that all sources
of risk must be reviewed and keeping the conversation on track) and ensuring that
all participants' opinions are heard.
It is important to engage with a diverse set of individuals to ensure that you get
different perspectives on what could cause harm, delays and other factors that can
be categorised as potential and actual risks. The participants of your interview could
be:
▪ Program sponsors
▪ The management
Like any other meeting or discussion, the interview participants must be notified
prior to the interview to ensure that everyone understands the objects, scenarios or
risks to be discussed and identified. It would also be helpful to send them the
materials that contain details about the risks to be identified ahead of the scheduled
discussion.
▪ Lessons learned
▪ Risk register
▪ Project charter
Note: You must bear in mind the confidentiality of the documents that you will be
showing your participants as well. Certain documents can only be best shown to
stakeholders like project sponsors. (e.g. overall budget or expenses)
You would need the help of your team members, program sponsors and other
relevant stakeholders to provide ideas for identifying potential, actual and residual
risks. To capture the ideas presented by the participants, it is recommended that the
proceedings are recorded. Records must be kept so that they may be used for future
programs. It would also be helpful to set a time limit for the session to ensure that
the interview does not take up too much time.
More tools and techniques used in risk identification and proper documentation of
identified risks as a basis for planning will be discussed in Section 1.3.
A risk register is an important document that you will be accessing throughout the planning,
implementing, and reviewing stages of your program. The objective of a risk register in the risk
identification process is to obtain essential details of identified program risks that will be updated
throughout the different stages of the risk management process. Your risk register in the risk
identification process must contain at least the following fields or columns:
Some of the components in the risk register columns will be discussed below:
▪ Risk Impacts
The risk impacts are used to establish the potential severity of the risk and help define
appropriate risk treatments. They also identify who will be impacted and allows the
communication of the risks to relevant stakeholders that will or may be impacted by the
risks.
▪ Risk Ratings
Risk ratings are used to categorise risks into low, moderate, major, etc., and to prioritise risks
so that the most severe risks will be treated first.
▪ Residual Risk
The residual risk is used to identify whether or not the risk treatments were effective and
whether or not further action is required.
▪ Risk Owners
Risk owners are listed in the risk register against each risk to clarify risk responsibilities, and
so risks can be followed up with the correct stakeholders at regular intervals.
Program risk methodologies give you and your organisation a better understanding of the identity,
impact, and nature of the risks in your program. More accurate than risk identification, program risk
methodology seeks to understand your organisation’s risks in-depth by stating:
To be able to commence with your risk management planning, you must first select a methodology
that matches your risks according to the abovementioned contexts.
Risk Identification
Risk Analysis
Risk Treatment
Risk Tracking
Risk Review
While program risk methodologies are considered standalone components, the graphic above
presents the methodologies as a process because it runs parallel to the overall risk management
process.
There is no one-size-fits-all methodology that can be used to address all types of risks since risks are
different in every step of the risk management process. The approaches that correspond to risks for
each component greatly vary as well. It is up to you and your organisation to select and modify the
methodology according to your program needs or, more specifically, to the context of your risks.
Just like how a newborn child must not be fed solid food to avoid choking and other worst-case
scenario consequences, you must also only use appropriate methodologies for the context of your
risk. Carefully select the appropriate risk methodology to avoid critical errors in the risk
management process that can lead to unwanted outcomes.
To decide which risk methodology matches the risk context, you must first assess the program risk
methods. Assessing the methodologies could mean determining whether each of the methodology’s
components – tools, techniques and approaches – are appropriate for the type of risks at hand.
Below are the five methodologies you can select to match the context of your risks.
i. Risk Identification
You may select risk identification when you want to outline how program stakeholders are
identifying program risks. The methodology outlines the following:
o when to identify program risks (e.g., before program approval)
o how to identify those risks (e.g., consultation and review of lessons learned)
o what tools and templates to be used (e.g., risk register).
You may select the risk analysis to outline how program stakeholders are analysing program
risks. The methodology outlines the following:
o how to assess risk likelihood of occurrence and severity of consequence
o how to categorise risks based on assessment outcomes
o what tools and templates to be used (e.g., risk assessment and risk matrix).
You may select risk treatment to outline how program stakeholders are treating program
risks. The methodology outlines guidelines on the following:
o which risks need to be treated (e.g., high and medium)
o how to identify risk treatments (e.g., consultation, review of lessons learned and
previous program risk records)
o how to plan and implement risk treatments, and tools and templates to be used (e.g.,
risk treatment plan).
You may select the risk tracking and risk monitoring process to outline how program
stakeholders are tracking program risks. The methodology outlines the following:
o how to monitor the effectiveness of implemented risk controls (e.g., regular risk
reassessments)
o how to identify the residual risk
o when additional risk controls need to be identified and implemented (e.g., for risks
that are medium and high)
o what tools and templates to be used (e.g. risk audit).
v. Risk Review
You will select risk review to outline how the effectiveness of the program risk management
is to be reviewed. The methodology outlines the following:
o when reviews should be conducted
o who are the personnel that should be involved
o how the review outcomes should be communicated
o how lessons learned will be passed on to future programs
o what tools and templates to be used (e.g., process review and lessons learned).
Risk context can be political, economic, social, legal, technological, etc. The process of selecting and
modifying program risk methodologies is done to match the established context of the risk as
established in Section 1.1.1.
Below are example scenarios that show when a risk methodology can be appropriately selected and
how you can modify it depending on the risk context.
▪ Scenario 1
A start-up delivery service company partnering with three local flower shops for a seasonal
sale wants to identify the risks and consequences such a collaboration would entail. They
find that due to the lack of delivery vehicles for despatch, delivery delays could occur during
the seasonal sale of their local shop partners. Complaints and dissatisfaction from the
customers and the local shop partners alike are expected and would go against their goal to
advertise their brand.
o Initially, they will use the risk identification methodology to employ risk identification
tools such as the SWOT analysis or others to identify detailed logistics and
operational risks.
o To manage the risks, they will discuss which risk treatment strategies to apply for the
identified risks. Since their goal is to advertise their brand, they may plan to
completely avoid or mitigate the logistics and operational risks identified by
developing appropriate solutions to address this.
o They will track the successes and failures of the business venture by employing risk
tracking methodology approaches to gauge their operations capacity further.
A clothing and textile manufacturing company planned to produce twice the product output
they made last year using new high-speed industrial sewing machines for this year’s
productions. The new industrial sewing machines are expected to decrease production time
by a minimum of 10 hours. However, only 42% of the employees know how to operate the
new machines.
How will this impact the established objectives of the business program, especially in terms
of the production schedule?
o They will employ risk analysis approaches to measure the impact of possible delays
on the company’s schedule. The company will brainstorm the re-assigning of the
rating of the consequences of the new risks identified.
o They will measure the variance in productivity using risk review tools such as the
variance analysis before deciding on the new risk responses.
o They may set up internal audits to ensure the program complies with legal
requirements, especially on the safety of employees operating high-speed industrial
machines.
Stakeholders play a vital role in moving forward with your risk management planning. Since
stakeholders are composed of various people operating in different fields, it is best to consider their
ideas as you go about your risk management. Involving your stakeholders, especially in identifying,
documenting, and analysing program-level risks, will be beneficial in many ways. Some of the
benefits include:
Consulting relevant stakeholders will help you gain their support and commitment so that
implementing the risk management plan becomes easier and, in turn, leads to a greater chance of
a successful implementation.
Stakeholders
They are defined as individuals, groups or organisations who either affect or are affected by the
program. The relevant stakeholders you may consult with are mainly the senior management team
because of the nature and complexity of program risks.
Communicating program level risks is often done through consultations. Consultation refers to the
process of seeking and sharing views and information regarding program risks and considering other
program stakeholders’ views as part of decision-making processes. Stakeholders are the drivers of
your risk management strategy and planning, especially in a program-level implementation. Taking
the stakeholder’s needs into account will make the planning of your risk strategy more cohesive and
coherent.
Setting up meetings is one effective way you can communicate with your stakeholders. Your role as
a program manager is to organise the details of the meeting, including:
The agenda
The participants
▪ Stakeholder objectives – These are specific and realistic statements that describe the
desired outcome of your program, usually as tangible results (e.g., a product or service).
As you consult with your stakeholders with an established idea of their objectives and expectations,
you will be able to identify their risk attitude, composed of the following attributes:
Levels Definition
Low-risk options which are considered safe but can only produce
Cautious
limited rewards are preferred.
Risk appetite is affected by several factors, including, but not limited to the following:
o industry or sector
o organisational culture
o resources and capabilities of the organisation (i.e., the more resources that an
organisation has, the greater the risk appetite will be).
▪ Risk Tolerance refers to the readiness of an organisation to absorb the residual risk. Residual
risk is defined as the remaining risk after risk treatment – for a more in-depth discussion of
risk treatment, refer to Chapter 3 of this Learner Guide.
In other words, this involves accepting the outcomes of risk and having the appropriate
resources and controls to withstand the given risk.
▪ Risk Threshold is a project management tool used to measure the degree of uncertainty and
level of impact. It assigns a specific value to the amount of risk that stakeholders are willing
to accept. Simply put, it quantifies risk tolerance with a precise figure, which means that you
cannot calculate the risk threshold without determining the risk tolerance first.
The risk threshold indicates the level of uncertainty or impact at which a stakeholder will
accept the risk – below the risk threshold, the stakeholder will accept the risk, and above the
risk threshold, the stakeholder will refuse the risk.
Stakeholder consultations are an important part of the planning process of program risk
management. The stakeholders’ expertise is one reason why you must seek their opinion in
identifying and analysing program risks. Your knowledge of the program as the program manager
could be limited only to your previous experiences. However, seeking the expert judgment of
program sponsors, project team members and external contractors will make assessments simpler
and faster.
For example, consulting project team members and contractors would be useful since some have a
level of experience in their area far beyond yours, or anyone else for that matter. They will be able
to provide qualified advice on how to identify the potential risks, avoid the risk turning into an
incident, and manage it should they retain them as residual risks.
▪ when proposing changes that may affect the overall status of the program.
The bottom line of this is that consultations must be tactical. The consultation should always happen
before doing a program activity or commencing with the program tasks. Otherwise, you could miss
some potential solutions you would only get from seeking other key stakeholders’ expertise. You
may repeat the consultation process at any given point in your program as needed.
The first thing that you must do before commencing with the consultation is to prepare:
The most common consultation techniques that you can use to extract information during
the consultation of relevant stakeholders include:
Personal interviews
• These are done when consultations must be done in private (e.g., Consulting
the program sponsor about the program budget is confidential.)
Workshops
• These are utilised when there is a need to engage stakeholders in intensive
discussions and activities. For example, allowing relevant stakeholders to
closely assess and test the new industrial sewing machine to further identify
threats by having the employees use it.
Focus groups
• These happen when a response from a departmentally similar group of
people is needed. For example, consulting only the people from the HR
department about the number of new hires they will likely onboard for
training for the upcoming months to identify if manpower is sufficient for the
next batch of program activities.
Surveys
• These are done when you want the stakeholder’s responses quick,
uniformed or short. For example, sending a survey on whether they agree
with the data that was uncovered using the risk matrix. Note that you must
ensure ample choices and enough fields are prepared for the respondents to
provide a more detailed explanation of your consultation questions.
Consultations can be documented by recording the actual meeting, logging survey responses
and completing meeting minutes. A record of the meeting minutes is a common
documentation tool used in various industry consultations and meetings. It is a valuable tool
that logs the information discussed during the consultation process, which can be used as a
reference for the next steps in the risk management process.
Below is an example of a meeting minutes template. Make sure that you record the
discussion as detailed as you can, filling out all the required fields so that you can relay
information from the consultation to other program team members comprehensively as
needed.
Meeting Minutes
Minutes taker i.e., team member in charge or recording details of the discussion
Further Reading
Program-level risks are on a larger scale than project risks when it comes to identifying risks, as they
are not confined only to projects or tasks. They are more concerned with the overall impact of
threats to the program's objectives, which is usually a collection of projects from either the same
organisational departments or different departments (e.g., purchasing, human resources, research
and development, finances).
Since program-level risks are more concerned with the threats associated with the overall program,
risk identification is normally performed by senior program team members. This is normally
performed through a lot of back and forth from key stakeholders through consultations, as
discussed in the previous section.
During consultations, risk identification can be made using the following tools and techniques with
the help of authorised and relevant stakeholders:
Informed Opinion
Delphi Technique
Risk Checklists
Risk Categorisation
▪ Informed Opinion
Any informed opinion from key stakeholders relevant to a specific subject matter of your
program, in this case, risk identification, is accepted as information. If you are a program
manager with a strong technical background, you will know from your own experience a lot
of the risks that could be encountered. Additionally, if you have experience in managing a
program, you will be able to draw from your own experiences the risks regarding the
integration and communication processes of the program.
The Delphi technique mostly used to identify potential risks involves getting a group of
experts to answer questionnaires anonymously. The responses are aggregated in the form
of statistical representation and then shared with the group. This process is repeated several
times. Each round aims to reduce the range of responses until a group consensus is reached.
The main benefit of using this technique is that the information obtained will come from
experts.
▪ Risk Checklists
A risk checklist is a pre-made list of risks that persist in a specific program, an area in the
process, or the industry. You can access lists made by a different organisation or industry to
match and cross-check your list.
Note: They are recommended to be used after identifying the first pool of potential risks as
they tend to limit creativity in visualising risks if used prematurely.
▪ Risk Categorisation
This technique focuses on the risk categories, which tell you why or in what particular area
in your program an event occurs. You can use this to determine which potential risks under
each category require more attention and further checking. That way, you can control the
risks directly from their source. Otherwise, it will be difficult to control risks if different
categories are overlooked, given all categories directly affect the program as a whole. Here
are some categorisations of risks that you can use in identifying program risks.
project
quality social technology
constraints
Sourced from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (6th Edition).
Risk analysis separates the minor acceptable risks from the major, unacceptable risks and provides
data to assist in evaluating and treating risks. Risk analysis is especially concerned with examining
the likelihood of occurrence and the severity of consequences of risks identified in the beginning
stages of the risk management process. By measuring the likelihood of occurrence against the
severity of consequence, you will be able to assign a risk rating to the identified risks. The risk rating
then tells you how damaging can the present risks be to your program objectives. Risks may be rated
as low, medium, high and critical and prioritised accordingly. This process is performed using a risk
analysis tool called the risk matrix. The steps in doing risk analysis are as follows:
Determine the
Determine the Identify the risk
consequence of the
likelihood of the risk rating.
risk
After determining the likelihood and the consequence of the risk, use a risk assessment matrix, such
as the one on the next page, to determine the type of the risk.
The risk matrix is used to prioritise between potential risks or between actual risks by scoring the
likelihood and the severity of the consequence of each risk and then assigning a risk rating. The
likelihood and impact ratings are multiplied to produce the level of risk as detailed in the matrix
below.
By doing so, you are prioritising the risks into low, medium, high and critical. For example, a
consequence of 3 and a likelihood of 4 would result in a high risk (3 x 4 = 12).
This prioritisation will help you identify which risks need to be treated first. The higher the risk, the
more urgent is the treatment.
Below is an example of a risk matrix, a risk analysis tool that you can use to assess the risks of your
program.
Almost Certain Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Critical Risk Critical Risk
Likely Low Risk Medium Risk Medium Risk Critical Risk Critical Risk
Possible Low Risk Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk High Risk
Unlikely Low Risk Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk High Risk
Rare Low Risk Low Risk Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
After using the techniques and tools appropriate for the assessment of risks, you and your team will
have identified and analysed a wide range of risks that will need further action. Documenting
gathered data after risk identification and analysis is crucial to the next processes that you will be
taking. Consider documenting output during this process in the planning phase on the basis of the
development of your program-specific tasks and action plans.
To ensure details are properly logged and specified in detail, you may use the following templates
as a reference to set the foundation of your competent risk management plan:
▪ Assumption Log
An assumption log’s objective is to list down assumptions that correspond to the question
‘What if?’. Assumptions that give rise to potential risks usually require some type of follow-
up or validation to determine whether they will impact the program significantly. You may
record identified potential risks using an assumption log.
Below is an example assumption log that you can use to pattern your program risks:
Assumption Log
Person
ID Category Assumption in Due Date Status Actions
charge
J. Smith is to
make rounds
Health and
to make sure
safety
There are enough fire
enough fire extinguishers
129 (Can be a J. Smith 3/27/20xx Open
extinguishers are put in
potential
in place. place and
compliance
comply with
risk)
state
standards.
As established in Section 1.1.2, a risk register is an important document that you will be
accessing throughout the planning, implementing, and reviewing stages of your program.
Risk registers are dynamic and can be modified to fit programs according to their scale and
complexity. They are also often updated throughout the life cycle of the risk management
process to accommodate new information on risks.
Your risk register in the risk identification process must contain at least the following
information:
Likelihood
Date Risk Risk Consequence if the Risk
ID of the Risk
Identified Description Impacts Risk Occurs Owner
Occurring
o In a dynamic risk register, risk treatments implemented are frequently reviewed for
their effectiveness in mitigating risks.
o In a dynamic risk register, risk impact, severity, and rating are continually reviewed
and updated.
The way a risk register would be used across a program would be any of the following:
o A dynamic risk register would be used to regularly monitor and update the risk rating
of identified risks.
o A dynamic risk register would be used to ensure that risks are assigned to their
respective owners and this ownership is regularly reviewed and updated.
o Since dynamic risk registers enable regular monitoring and updating of risk rating of
identified risks, risks are managed and mitigated in a timely manner.
Risk reports show information on the overall sources of program risk. The potential and
actual risks are often provided with the summarised information on identified individual
project risks that would affect the program overall. It is also updated with the results (i.e.,
residual risks) gathered throughout the different phases of the program. After identification
and analysis, the risk report may include the following:
Following the program management hierarchical structure, project managers are ranked directly
underneath program managers. This shows how closely they work alongside you to ensure the
completion of individual project tasks as part of the overall program. Supporting and mentoring
them in the analysis, evaluation, and treatment of risks will be beneficial for both you and the
project manager and the organisation.
Listed below are the benefits for a program manager who oversees the program.
▪ You can be confident that your project managers have the capacity to address risks that are
within their authority.
▪ This will make the analysis, evaluation, and treatment of risks on different individual projects
and various program activities harmonious.
▪ Project managers, in turn, would be able to support those who report under them (i.e.
program team members) as well.
By pairing a more experienced person (the mentor) with a less-experienced member (the mentee),
you can use mentoring:
▪ for succession planning in case program managers plan to leave or fail to do their duty as
program risk managers.
The end goal for every risk identified in risk management is for it to be addressed and controlled so
that it will no longer be a factor for your program to fail. The process of analysing, evaluating and
treating risks is vital to ensuring this. In the planning phase, together with the project managers,
you must do these steps hand in hand so that the consolidation of data you will be able to collect
and address will not be difficult.
As discussed in the previous section, risk analysis is a step in the risk management process that lets
you give risks a rating or a score. Priorities are established through analysing the relationship
between program outcome benefits and consequences. This is often done using the risk matrix, a
chart that follows the formula below to calculate the level of identified risks.
Risk Evaluation
The level of risk identified during risk analysis can be ranked and prioritised according to a consistent
overall ranking and rating system. After they have been ranked, the risk evaluation will now
determine the tolerability of each risk. The tolerability of each risk is normally determined by
comparing the risk analysis results against the risk criteria.
Risk evaluation is considered a passageway connecting the analysis and treatment planning of risks.
During risk evaluation, you may simply undertake further analysis to better understand risks. To do
this, you must access your updated risk register with the new risk ratings for each threat. From here
on, your team will be able to plot a risk treatment appropriate to the rating of each risk. You will
take no further action but record, communicate and validate the outcome of risk evaluation at
appropriate levels of the organisation if everything is all set.
Risk Treatment
The goal of risk treatment is to adequately address actual risks. In the planning phase, you must be
able to choose controls equal to the risks your organisation has already assessed. Remedial actions,
also called risk treatments, intend to remove, control, or lessen risk impacts on a program. See
Chapter 2, Subchapter 2.4, for further discussion on risk treatments.
It is important to give them the support they need as they perform their tasks to ensure that they
are done in line with the overall goals you have set up for your program. Supporting project
managers means being available to aid focused on providing their needs, such as:
▪ Ensure they have access to relevant data or resources to conduct risk assessments (e.g., risk
register, risk-related data and resources)
▪ Hold meetings as needed to allow them to discuss what project managers can do to meet
program objectives
The ways in which you can support a project manager in the analysis, evaluation and treatment of
a project risk will be discussed below.
How you can support the project manager in the analysis of a project risk include:
▪ Clarifying the nature of the project risk identified by the project manager
▪ Giving guidelines on identification of the risk rating based on risk likelihood and consequence
▪ Guiding as needed to ensure outcomes are consistent with risk management frameworks
and standards. (e.g., referring to and following the organisation’s risk matrix, risk
management procedures, and standards).
Since the purpose of risk evaluation is to push forward with the plan after the analysis of risks. It is
a great way to support project managers as it confirms how the team should go about the treatment
process of the risks. How you can support the project manager can include evaluating together the
possible impacts of this risk on the project.
How you can support the project manager in the treatment of project risk include:
▪ Explaining appropriate and effective use of risk prevention strategies. (e.g., avoiding,
accepting, mitigating, transferring risk)
▪ Instructing how to identify revised risk likelihood and revised risk consequence
▪ Giving guidelines on how to identify revised risk rating based on risk revised likelihood and
revised consequence
▪ Providing guidance as needed to ensure outcomes are consistent with risk management
frameworks and standards. (e.g., referring to and following the organisation’s risk matrix,
risk management procedures and standards).
Mentoring project managers simply means influencing, guiding and directing them towards
effectively achieving objectives. In the risk management planning phase, mentoring could mean
imparting what you know, experienced or observed so that they will be able to conduct risk
assessments with confidence and map treatments with a sense of accountability for each risk. This
can be achieved by:
▪ Being available and accessible for support as they take necessary actions for the project and
program-related tasks, as mentioned in the previous discussion of this section
▪ Having an open line of communication to aid them with their concerns and other areas of
difficulty
▪ Conducting training and walkthroughs for a better grasp of techniques, methods and
common practices
o PMBOK Risk Management Guide and Standards – This can be used as a reference
manual for program managers to assist project managers in identifying and treating
program risks. The standards outline seven proven risk management processes and
relevant tools and templates.
o AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines – This can be
used as a reference manual for program managers to assist project managers in
identifying and treating program risks. It outlines the risk assessment and the risk
management process, from risk identification to monitoring and reviewing risks and
risk management processes.
The ways in which you can mentor the project manager in the analysis of a project risk include:
▪ Teaching them risk analysis techniques and methods for different contexts of risks
▪ Explaining why certain identified risk consequences must be avoided
▪ Giving opportunities for the project manager to identify risk ratings based on risk likelihood
and consequence on their own
The ways in which you can mentor the project manager in the evaluation of the project risk impacts
on the program include giving project managers an opportunity to perform the evaluation of the
possible impacts of risks on the project or the program under your guidance and surveillance.
How you can mentor the project manager in the treatment of project risk can be done by doing the
following:
▪ Equipping them on how to select appropriate and effective risk treatments using risk
management standards by conducting training sessions
▪ Familiarising them with the use of appropriate and effective risk prevention strategies by
giving them plenty of opportunities in being a part of those who decide in mapping risk
treatment strategies for certain risks
▪ Giving them an opportunity to show other team members how revised risk likelihood and
revised risk consequence are identified
▪ Providing training on how to use internationally recognised standards for identifying revised
risk rating integration on the projects they are managing.
Now that you know in which areas you can support and mentor project managers regarding the
analysis, evaluation, and treatment of project risks, it is essential that you run a support and
mentoring program that is fitting to your organisational needs. Below are some considerations to
take note of in running a mentoring program in your organisation.
•For example, using layman’s terms rather than English terms used only by specialists.
•For example, using work health and safety terminology when talking to an audience
comprised of WHS personnel.
•For example, when consulted through email, avoid wordiness. Using ‘in spite of that’
rather than ‘although’ is an example of this.
•For example, when asked for their desired engagement, they identify appropriate to
them and not just accept what is suggested to them, etc.
Using active
listening in Using open- Probing
paraphrasing to Using ended questions (e.g.,
demonstrate nonverbal cues questions (e.g., you mentioned
they to demonstrate What do you earlier, can you
understand understanding, think? How do please
what the such as nodding you feel about elaborate on
speaker has just this?) that)
said
In directing the planning of a program risk management, you must ensure risks are assigned and
managed in a timely manner. In essence, identifying and addressing risks without delay means
managing risks in a timely manner. The benefits of carrying out these important steps in a timely
manner include, but are not limited to:
Preparing you in
Accomplishing results
Spotting concerns far dealing with more
in a shorter period of
earlier serious risks that
time
would need attention
This can be done by checking in on the project managers or risk owners of your program via
email, calls or online group conferences. You can ask for a document containing all identified
and assessed risks via a risk checklist, the risk register or others.
▪ Risk management activities, such as risk reviews and audits, were completed as scheduled
or planned
This can be done by checking the risk register, particularly the risk owner and the planned
risk treatment strategy fields. Recording often requires inputting the time and date of
completion, so it will be easier for you to track if they were filled out on or before the set
deadline.
In the implementation phase, confirming whether the risk treatment plan was executed on
time or not is crucial. You can do this by checking the updated risk register, directly speaking
to the risk owner or conducting group sessions to confirm the progress of each task or
activity.
▪ Allows for clear communication between relevant stakeholders throughout the different
phases of risk management (e.g., in risk identification, risk mitigation, addressing issues)
▪ Ensures company objectives are clear and available to all persons involved at the onset of
the planning
▪ Promotes an environment that takes responsibility when it is due (e.g., risk owners
escalating delays or mistakes to superiors).
▪ Risk management tools are accessible, well enough documented, and understood
Updating and accessing risk management tools such as your risk register lists and the risk
matrix alone can confirm that your risk management is available for all stakeholders to
access. This ensures stakeholders are up-to-date with changes and developments in the
program tasks, making it easy for them to perform necessary changes whenever needed.
Examples of risk management tools that you can take note of to confirm transparency of the
program risk management are:
o The risk register – lists all program risks and, for each risk, the ratings for risk
probability and impact, risk category and risk ranking, program impacts, residual risk,
and risk owners
o The risk matrix – prioritises risks by scoring the likelihood and consequence of each
risk and then assigning a risk rating. This document can clarify and prompt risk
owners to prioritise tasks in the program according to the risk rating for each risk.
▪ Risk management frameworks are accessible, well enough documented, and understood
Examples of risk management frameworks that you can take note of to confirm transparency
of the program risk management are:
o Risk Management Policy – generally outlines the objectives of the policy, the risk
management framework, and responsibilities. Access to clear and coherent policy
objectives promotes comprehensive components related to it will also be
communicated
▪ Risk management systems are accessible, well enough documented, and understood
Examples of risk management systems that you can take note of to confirm transparency of
the program risk management are:
Risk identification
Risk analysis
Risk treatment
Risk tracking
Risk review.
Procuring Approval
To confirm risk management is transparent across the program, securing approval for the risk
management plans from relevant program authorities must also be procured. Doing this will signify
that everyone concerned with the program tasks and objectives is on board with where you and
your team are in the process so far. You can procure approval using the following steps:
Informal Formal
Agreement Agreement
These are agreements often communicated in person, through phone calls, text messages
and sometimes emails. They often do not involve signing and are considered less formal but
hold power in the decision-making changes and give instructions.
▪ Formal Agreement
These agreements refer to documents individuals need to sign to signify that they agree with
the steps you will be taking to implement the risk management process on the program
concerned. Below is a sample template for the risk treatment approval section of important
risk management documents, such as the risk management plan that will be discussed in the
next subchapter.
Approval
Subsequently, due to the unpredictable nature of risks, a dynamic program of risk management is
necessary. It needs to be dynamic to withstand and adapt to the changes that will occur throughout
the different phases of your program. A dynamic program of risk management means that it has the
ability to:
Decide on the
Detect potential new
Determine the appropriate risk-
risks and weaknesses
appetite for risk-taking management
in risk treatments
approach.
Below are guidelines by which you can ask program stakeholders to confirm that risk management
is dynamic:
You can do this by setting a set date to solicit the stakeholders’ responses. You can agree to
do it daily, weekly, bi-weekly and so on.
▪ Ask if risk management tools, frameworks, systems, methodologies, and standards are
flexible enough to be applied to all types of program risks.
This can be done through meetings, consultations, and/or email correspondence for a
straightforward approach. Another way to do this is by sending out surveys or feedback
forms so stakeholders' responses will be uniformed or narrowed down to your preferred
response choices. This way, you will have an idea of which aspects of your program to change
and which aspects of your program to improve constantly.
Note: Ensure you document the feedback and areas requiring improvement to make risk
management more dynamic. This can be done by updating program templates such as the risk
register or your organisation’s risk management plan.
Developing a program risk management system consolidates all accomplished risk management
processes (e.g., risk identification and risk assessment) in the planning phase to ensure everything
is set before moving on to the next phase of the risk management, which is the implementation of
risk management plans. A program risk management system is maintained or sustained throughout
and across the program to involve, update and assist stakeholders in managing risks, their controls,
treatments and outcomes.
A system is a set of risk management components with different functions and agendas that, if put
together, have the chance to improve the quality and reliability of your team's approach to
managing and communicating your program risks.
1.6.1 Develop a Program Risk-Management System for Effective Management and Communication
of Risks, Controls, Treatments and Outcomes
Developing a program risk management system is like stacking blocks which will serve as steps for
you to reach the desired object. In the case of your program risk management planning, you are
stacking up risk strategies, techniques and many other risk management components together to
achieve effective management and communication of risks across your program. By developing a
program risk management plan, you can mix and match risk management components to create a
suitable system to suit your organisational needs. A risk management plan is a document that
defines exactly how risks should be controlled and treated and tracks risk management outcomes
on any given program throughout the organisation.
Sourced from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (6th Edition).
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1.6.2 Maintain a Program Risk-Management System for Effective Communication with Relevant
Stakeholders
▪ Accessible
All relevant data about the program risk management must be accessible to relevant
stakeholders of the program. This can be done by employing risk management systems that
are readily available and are able to be modified to suit your organisational needs.
For example, employing a cloud-based project management solution software that will allow
all your program data to be in one space. Therefore, making it more accessible and available
to anyone who needs access to your program risk management data.
All documents that play a crucial role in all the different phases of the program risk
management process must be updated periodically to ensure no information, tools, or
strategies are missing, obsolete or no longer usable.
▪ Always in motion
It is necessary to keep tabs on the progress of the ongoing tasks or activities by asking for
and responding to feedback. This can be done through verbal and nonverbal forms of
communication via either email, calls or in-person question and answer. This is done to
ensure program tasks are being completed.
▪ Adaptable to change
You must record and log minor and major changes that have transpired throughout the life
cycle of your program in order to keep track and understand how your program has
progressed. Above all, you must ensure to have a plan to address any notable changes in
your program by having a contingency plan (i.e., a fallback plan) that will be referred to as
necessary.
The implementation phase refers to the actual management of the program risks using the planned
program risk management strategy. In the implementation phase, your goals are to:
In this chapter, you will learn more about how to perform the above-mentioned responsibilities
using your planned program risk management strategy so that your organisation can impose timely
solutions in managing risks. Not knowing how to manage a program risk would lead to terrible
consequences for your organisation, such as lawsuits, financial loss, damaged reputation, business
failure and more.
▪ review progress, analyse variance and initiate risk responses to achieve program objectives
in dynamic risk environments
▪ confirm risks are monitored and assessed across the program at agreed intervals
▪ direct response to actuated program risk and confirm remedial actions are authorised with
impact analysis according to program objectives
Once you have finalised your program risk management strategy and gained approval from the
relevant stakeholders of the program, you are now ready to put your planned strategy into action.
As a program manager, your main task in the implementation phase is to ensure program activities
are running following the agreed-upon program risk management strategies developed in the
planning stage.
The biggest advantage of a comprehensive and concrete risk management strategy agreed upon by
relevant stakeholders is that you gain assurance in how you and your team can direct your program
risk management towards achieving your organisation’s objectives.
Agreed program management plans can be obtained by constant brainstorming and meeting with
the stakeholders involved in the program. There are many ways to confirm agreed-upon program
management plans. Fundamentally, they are put in place to prevent misunderstandings and
disputes by clarifying the expectations of the stakeholders in the overall process of risk
management. To confirm approval of your management plans, you may access the following
documents in your organisation.
This document serves as a mechanism to collate the identified risks and map out the plan to
get the project back on track in case these risks occur. It is comprised of many sections,
including an approval page where you will see the list of authorised stakeholders’ signatures
indicating their agreement of the management plans.
▪ Memorandum of understanding
This is a written agreement which is not a legally binding document used for negotiating
terms to express understanding between involved parties. Usually, this is done to ensure
program sponsors and other interested parties agree with the management plans.
Further Reading
There are many ways how to write and fill out the memorandum of
understanding based on the industry or the context of the needs of
both parties. However, to give you an idea about what are the
components that make up a memorandum of understanding, below
is a link to a sample document.
The first thing that you can do is relay approved program risk management plans to relevant
stakeholders. If it is for a risk treatment plan, for example, you will have to relay the following
information:
o the identified risks
o the risk impacts, including:
̶ likelihood
̶ consequence
̶ risk rating
̶ risk impacts (e.g., impact on the budget, timeline, quality, etc.).
Next, you can now assign responsibilities to stakeholders for the implementation of the plan.
Locate the risk owner or the key person designated to perform the task to assign tasks,
program activities and so on.
What you need to keep in mind when assigning responsibilities for implementation are as
follows:
o Remedial actions to be put in place
o Actions
o Responsibilities
o Due dates.
Periodically, feedback and/or update must be obtained from all relevant stakeholders,
especially those directly associated with tasks related to the management of risks. This way,
you will be able to track which aspects or specific tasks of your program risk management
will need further assistance. This can be crucial, especially in time management and
addressing risks promptly. You may ask for feedback on the following examples:
o shared risks
o risk impacts
o treatment plans
o responsibilities.
▪ Document changes
Lastly, you will record and log any suggested changes that have transpired during the course
of implementing managing or program risks.
The following templates can be used to document changes throughout the management of
program risks.
o Risk register
o Risk treatment plan
o Risk treatment implementation review.
Note: A risk treatment plan is attached together with this learner guide. Make sure to
browse it to get a clearer picture of how changes are properly documented through the use
of a risk management plan.
The identity of risks often does not stay the same throughout the life cycle of a program risk
management. Depending on which phase you are in in the overall process, it is likely that new risks
would arise, low-level risks will escalate, and high-level risks would downgrade. This happens
because unpredictable events will continue to occur that could indirectly or directly affect your
program as you continue to manage risks.
In risk management, changes are always to be expected. To ensure your program risk management
can withstand such changes, consider contingency plans, especially for risks within complex
programs subject to unpredictable contextual pressures.
The common types of risks that can be subjected to unpredictable contextual pressures will be
discussed below:
▪ Human Error – includes the collapse of infrastructures, oil spills and nuclear disasters. This
could potentially harm people inside and outside an organisation and could lead to the
tarnishing of a business brand or reputation. Such disasters are often due to non-compliance
with rules, regulations, and standards.
▪ Regulatory Risk – includes a change in regulations and laws such as tax policies or banning
of certain substances.
Due to the dynamic risk environment in the implementation of risk management, it will always be
beneficial to look back at your plans and program objectives. This way, you will be able to anticipate
how much further damages can affect your program or how much of your program you are still
likely to save by taking a different course of action.
Reviewing progress, analysing variances and initiating risk responses are risk management
components that will be able to help you and your team anticipate and address such changes.
As the program manager, you must conduct risk reviews regularly with the risk owners, program
team and other relevant stakeholders to review progress. This is because changes will occur as you
implement your program. As such, risk reviews are essential to the success of the program because
they involve establishing proactive (as opposed to reactive) processes that aim to constantly
monitor current and emerging risks to ensure that you are taking the right route. Other goals of risk
reviews include, but are not limited to the following:
determine whether the agreed risk treatments resulted in what was planned
analyse and learn lessons from events, changes, trends, successes, and failures
identify lessons and knowledge that can be carried over for managing risks in future
programs.
▪ Risk reassessment – involves updating the risk register by evaluating current risks and
determining which of these risks are already outdated, meaning that they are no longer
threatening the program and should, therefore, be closed. In this technique, new risks and
their associated impacts on the program are also identified.
▪ Trend analysis – involves quantitatively reviewing what occurred over a specific period and
forecasting future outcomes based on the results. This helps to determine whether
performance is improving or deteriorating with the current risk treatments. Trend analysis
is commonly used together with variance analysis, often using the same metrics and
standards.
o Management reserve is the amount reserved for unidentified risks that still fall
within the scope of the project. Typically, the management is responsible for
controlling the management reserve. As such, as the project manager, you must seek
permission to use this reserve when unidentified risks occur.
Variance analysis involves quantitatively determining the degree of difference between the actual
outcomes against perceived (planned) results. For instance, if you want to analyse cost variance in
your program, you need to compare the planned activity cost with the actual cost incurred.
Analysing or examining the outcomes of the risk treatment implementations will help you
understand any variances between the before and after treatment state of the risks.
▪ examine if the implementation of the risk treatments was as per the plan
▪ determine the new risk rating of residual risks based on the current state of implementation
It is important to keep in mind that there is no single variance analysis formula for all examinations
because it will highly depend on the type of variable you will be analysing.
The main variance analysis formulae that you can use for different program risk scenarios are as
follows:
Fixed overhead variance (Actual Output x Standard Rate) – Actual Fixed Overhead
Note: Variance analysis can be used in many aspects of the program, but variances are most likely
found in budget and productivity risks.
1. Find the mean for each group that you are comparing.
2. Calculate the overall mean, which is the mean of the combined groups or variables.
3. Calculate the within-group variation or deviation of each score from the group mean.
4. Find the between-group variation or deviation of each group mean from the overall mean.
Further Reading
Changes in your risks mean initiating new appropriate risk responses that match the situation of the
new risk environment. If the changed environment results in a higher risk, you may have to treat
the concerned risk once more depending on the threat it still poses to your program. On the other
hand, if it results in a lower risk, you may have to examine whether there is still a need to continue
responding to that risk.
Initiating a risk response simply means creating a risk response plan. A risk response plan involves
the process of:
▪ risk identification
▪ risk analysis
In other words, you will be simply identifying and assessing the risks once more to assign a new risk
treatment plan for the risk that has already gone through previously planned controls. You may
review Chapter 1, Section 1.1, on which techniques and tools to use to identify risks and revisit
Section 1.4 for the discussion on how to analyse risks.
Submit the decision to the management for final review and approval.
The existing risk responses in your organisation may involve any of the following risk
treatments:
Mitigating Accepting
▪ Transferring – involves shifting the impact of the threat and ownership of the
response to a third party, usually in the form of premiums or insurance.
▪ Mitigating – involves reducing the probability of the risk and its negative impacts
until the acceptable risk threshold is achieved.
Once you have examined your current risk responses, you must now identify the
appropriate step to take next. You may choose any of the following:
▪ Make no changes to the risk responses if they are still considered suitable for the
changed environment
3. Submit the decision to the management for final review and approval.
You must submit the proposed decision to the management for final review and approval.
The management may come to any of the following resolutions:
As established in the previous section, it is inevitable for new risks to emerge and existing risks to
disappear throughout the life cycle of a program. You must monitor and regularly assess records
and documents that contain identified risks to guarantee that you can keep track of all information
regarding the program risks and communicate this information to the rest of the team.
As the program manager, you are also responsible for ensuring monitoring and assessing risks across
the program is at an appropriate frequency. Consider your relevant stakeholders’ opinions on this
matter and decide on an agreed interval for monitoring and assessing risks in your program. Set
deadlines and fixed dates (e.g., weekly, monthly, quarterly reporting) to report and update
documents. For example, a program manager may ask the team members to report their daily
accomplishments using a spreadsheet, email, or even filing a specific organisation-tailored
document. Generally, risk monitoring and assessment are conducted:
Systematic risk monitoring and assessment are crucial to an effective program of risk management.
Doing this will keep you, your team members, and stakeholders up to date with the essential
changes as you move forward in different management process phases. It is important to recognise
when monitoring and assessment are needed as the nature of your risks changes. Below are
examples of circumstances that may prompt assessment and monitoring:
Monitoring and assessment must be done periodically because the risk might no longer be
present. This can occur if the resources to be used or the processes to be followed are
changed. For example, choosing to source a certain material from outside the state will cause
delays in the delivery, so the material was sourced locally instead.
Monitoring and assessment must be done periodically because the risk always changes. For
instance, the cost of resource X at the project's planning stage was stable and, therefore,
easy to predict. However, as the program has progressed, global resource X prices have
become very volatile. This increases the probability of the risk occurring.
▪ The risk may not have been relevant in the earlier stages of the program but will be critical
in a later stage
Monitoring and assessment must be done periodically because the risks may appear without
you noticing. For instance, you may not have to worry about the risks of working under
extreme conditions (e.g., dehydration and heatstroke of workers) during the summer now.
Still, you will have to consider these later on as the project proceeds and the season changes.
Monitoring and assessment must be done periodically because the owners of risks also
change or risks get transferred. For instance, a project team member may have left and have
been replaced, or the assignment of responsibilities may have changed within the team.
Monitoring and assessment must be done periodically because the solution for the risks may
also change. For instance, a risk that has been managed through the use of PPE can now be
managed through substitution by replacing the old equipment with a new machine that has
only very recently become available. Aside from this, better processes may have also been
adapted by the organisation.
▪ face-to-face meetings
In any way, the steps on how you can confirm risks are being monitored and assessed at agreed
intervals will be discussed below.
Review evidence
The first thing that you can do is refer to the risk register to identify the owner of risks in the
risk register. You may also confirm whether the risk owner remains the same or if the
ownership has been delegated to a new risk owner. Then, you can start asking the
appropriate stakeholder for evidence of risks being monitored at agreed intervals. For
example, you can ask your project officer for the updated risk audit on a monthly basis to
review changes that would require further action plans to be applied.
2. Reviewing evidence
Next, review the evidence from relevant documents (e.g., risk audit, risk assessment) so that
you can act promptly if the nature, potential impact, or likelihood of the risk goes outside
the organisation’s risk tolerance level.
Then, confirm the progress and development of tasks using various platforms to
communicate with the relevant stakeholders. For example, you respond appropriately to
feedback and answer any questions raised to support team members carry out tasks
effectively.
Then, you will respond to the findings of reviewed relevant monitored and assessed risks at
agreed intervals. For example, you will praise relevant stakeholders for monitoring and
assessing risks during designated house meetings or clarifying the requirements with
stakeholders weekly through stand-up meetings. Lastly, record outcomes of the review
relevant to risks being monitored (e.g., meeting minutes) to document what has transpired.
Actuated program risks refer to those that have gone through the initial application of agreed-upon
risk management controls. Many things can happen after the implementation of the planned risk
controls. Ideally, you will want risks to be avoided or mitigated after the application of controls.
However, it is also possible that the risks remain or even change in nature. Either way, the course
of action on actuated program risks is generally divided into two: to apply further remedial actions
or to close the program task because the initial risk control proved to be effective.
To help you and your stakeholders decide which risk treatment would be most suitable for the new
nature of the risk, bear the following in mind:
▪ program objectives
Meanwhile, the following are considerations when applying a response to program risks:
Remedial actions are risk response strategies commonly used to control actuated. These actions
intend to remove, control, or lessen the impact of actuated risks on a program. Generally, you can
apply remedial actions to address risks as you deem fit so that the risks no longer pose an immediate
threat to the established objectives of your program. Just like your initial risk response plan to newly
identified and assessed risks, your remedial action plan will also employ risk treatments to control
risks further. Below are the risk treatments you can use to respond to actuated program risks as
part of your remedial action.
Avoid Accept
▪ Escalate
Risks beyond your knowledge, means and control would require you to use the escalate
response strategy. You normally pass the responsibility to a higher position like your project
sponsor or expert. It is important that you report risks that are beyond your control early
and often so that the people who will be taking responsibility for the risk can be given extra
time to react to the threat. No future actions will be required from you nor from your
subordinates except to record the changes in the risk register.
An example of a risk that may need escalation would be a newly passed government law that
you know you and your immediate team have no jurisdiction over.
▪ Mitigate
Moderating the severity of risk would require you to use the mitigate response strategy. For
example, a supplier backs out near the execution date of your program. To reduce the impact
of the unfortunate occurrence, you find a new supplier that provides the same quality of
products for a slightly higher price. The new supplier may be more costly, but it will be cost-
effective to ensure you have a supplier than lose customers because of failing to provide
orders.
On the occasion that you find yourself not suited to manage risks because you either lack
the skills, resources, or time to do it, you could use the transfer response strategy. As the
name implies, you simply transfer the action that needs to be done of the risk to a third party
without eliminating the risk.
The common examples of this are insurance. An organisation may purchase property
insurance to gain financial protection over resources or equipment damages in the event a
fire breaks out.
▪ Avoid
Completely eliminating the risk and its impact would require you to use the avoid response
strategy. You normally resort to this strategy for risks that would cause grave damage to
your program or organisation.
▪ Accept
The accept response strategy does not require you to do anything but acknowledges minor
risks, positive or negative. This is only done if there are no practical responses to the risk.
Sourced from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (6th Edition).
Impact Analysis
Impact analysis seeks to illuminate the pros and cons of the changes in your program. It is performed
to review your actuated risks against your overall program objectives. In your workplace, it is done
through discussions or brainstorming meetings together with relevant stakeholders.
In general, the steps on how you can perform impact analysis are listed below.
A change request is a document normally used to present the changes you or other
stakeholders want to implement for remedial actions on the current plan. This document
must be pulled up and discussed with relevant stakeholders to check if the proposed changes
are achievable within your system’s capacity.
Run a risk assessment on the change request together with relevant stakeholders.
Review your program objectives to confirm whether the change request’s goal is considered
a priority in your set objectives.
4. Identify the sequence to perform the task and how to relate it with the current one.
Prioritise which tasks must be done first and ensure it does not overlap with the current
action plans.
Ensure the change request has been properly reviewed and assessed, then document the
outcome using your organisation’s preferred logging document. An example document that
you may use is the change register.
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▪ Endorses action plans that authorised stakeholders have collectively agreed with
▪ Clearly states the action plans that must be performed confirmed via written or verbal
confirmation
In the previous chapter, you have learned how to put your plan into action. You learned how to
monitor and respond to program risks in real-time using an established risk management system
backed up by your risk management plan so that your organisation can impose timely solutions in
controlling risks.
After actuated risks have been identified and assigned a new remedial plan, it is recommended to
review and monitor risks continuously. The review and monitor phase aims to put together all
relevant data employed and acquired during the entire risk management process to produce a string
of documented data that can be used for future programs.
In this chapter, you will learn to review feedback on the risk-management methodologies used to
manage program risks so that the organisation can draw lessons from the effectiveness of the tools,
techniques or methodologies used in your program. Doing so will allow you to develop insights into
the strengths and weaknesses of your risk management process. The knowledge that you gain from
assessing the risk management outcomes is essential in ensuring the success of the projects that
you will undertake in the future.
This chapter will give you a clearer idea of assessing program risk-management outcomes through
the following measures:
▪ identify and document residual program risk and communicate to stakeholders any
transferred liability at program completion
▪ review and analyse program outcomes to assess the effectiveness of the risk-management
methodology
▪ analyse, document and recommend lessons learned for application in other programs.
As mentioned in Chapter 1, Section 1.1, residual risks are simply risks that remain after planned
controls have been taken. Even after filtering out all risks you deem unacceptable (e.g., mitigate
risks, avoid risks), with the help of your risk treatment plan, you will not be able to eliminate risks
entirely because it is simply impossible. It is important to identify them so you can further assess if
such risks still pose a threat to your program or not. Assessing residual risks will once again require
employing a risk management process that you may or may not have used in the early stages of the
overall risk management. It is vital that residual risks are properly documented and updated to avoid
confusion or mixing up residual risks with the new potential risk that have possibly shown up only
later in the process.
Residual risks are easy enough to identify. They are simply risks that remain after risk controls have
been implemented. In essence, the tools and techniques often used to identify general types of risks
can also be utilised to identify residual risks. What is vital in managing residual risk is the assessment
of whether it is still an immediate threat to your program and therefore needs further action. Your
goal is to assign a new risk impact on the residual risk because only then will you be able to decide
on an action to address it again.
To assign a new risk impact on the residual risk, you may use a risk matrix again. See Chapter 1,
Section 1.3.2, to review the discussion on the use of the risk matrix.
After new risk ratings are assigned to residual risks, you will be able to tell which ones to prioritise
and which ones need further treatment. You will assign a new risk treatment that you and the
organisation believe is the most suitable solution to the risk. Review Chapter 2, Subchapter 2.4 for
the discussion on risk treatments, which are namely:
Avoid Accept
Finally, log every minor and major change to the risks in the risk register. As established in the previous chapters, a risk register is an important
document that you will be accessing throughout the planning, implementing, and reviewing phase of your program. To ensure your risk register
is dynamic, you must keep it updated each time new developments to the program risk management arise. Below is an example risk register
template with updated fields to accommodate new information.
Revised Revised
Likelihood of Consequence Risk Risk
Date Risk Risk Risk Likelihood of Consequence of Revised New Risk New Risk
ID the Risk if the Risk Treatments prevention
Identified Description Impacts Owner the Risk the Risk Risk Rating Treatments Owner
Occurring Occurs strategies
Occurring Occurring
This could mean either new potential risks arising from an unforeseen and unplanned situation or residual risks have adapted to a new
risk level because it has been mitigated or previously addressed.
▪ Risk treatments
Update the risk treatment of the identified residual risks that all relevant stakeholders have decided on.
This means that the possibility of the risk happening may have changed and would need to be updated accordingly.
The impact or consequence of the risk occurring may have changed. The impact may have
changed to negligible, minor, major or even catastrophic.
The assessment of the risk may have been changed to either low, medium, or high risk
▪ Risk Owner
It will help clarify risk responsibilities so that risks can be followed up with the correct
stakeholders at regular intervals. This is only updated when there is a need to transfer the
liability to a different stakeholder.
It will be helpful to use a different version number to help you distinguish the updated risks
from the older identified risks. Or you can also put the date of the latest revision to
distinguish versions.
Note: You may opt not to include all the components listed above. However, it is a given that once
new risks are identified, all the other columns or details that a risk register demands from a risk
must also be filled up (e.g., risk owner, risk description, etc.) and should not be limited to updating
the risk level only.
In some cases, residual risks are instead transferred. It could be transferred in the essence of:
Either way, it is important to communicate the updated residual risk solution, especially transferring
of liability, to the relevant stakeholders. Doing this will keep them abreast with the changes in the
risk management plan.
Generally, the stakeholders concerned with the transfer of risk liability are:
program participants
program sponsors and
(team members and
company owners
project officer).
The ways in which you can communicate transferred liability to stakeholders include:
managing expectations
The common misconception about risk management is that the process ends when all of the steps
— from risk management planning and risk identification until risk monitoring and controlling —
have been implemented. Reviewing the project outcomes once the program ends is a part of the
process that is usually forgotten. However, this step must be undertaken because this will help you
determine whether your approaches were able to give you the results you want and identify the
issues and problems you encountered in implementing these approaches. This will guide you in
developing a better risk management plan for your future programs, as discussed in the next
subchapter of this Learner Guide.
There are various considerations to take note of in analysing program outcomes. Different
organisations employ different strategies, methods and techniques to do this. Regardless of how
different industries and organisations perform it, you can analyse program outcomes by following
the generic process below. The list of considerations for analysing program outcomes is as follows:
1. Defining objectives involves reviewing your goals and objectives so that you will be able to
ask the right questions when setting up a discussion or meeting with your stakeholders to
understand if the processes and procedures you have used for your program are effective.
Note: You can start reviewing the objectives of our organisation per category or department
so that it will not be overwhelming as opposed to reviewing everything at once.
2. Data gathering aims to answer the questions you have previously set up in the first step.
3. Data analysis can be done by inputting data gathered and measuring it against the defined
objectives.
4. Data evaluation aims to examine through data that the processes and procedures used are
effective and continue to promote growth. That is why it is always recommended to regularly
perform an analysis of program outcomes.
Ultimately, risk management aims to allow the program to most efficiently and effectively progress
toward its target outcomes. As such, one way by which you can determine the effectiveness of your
risk management methodology is to measure the program outcomes against the agreed key
performance indicators (KPIs). The KPI is a type of measurement that reveals whether an
organisation, a program, or a task has successfully achieved its objectives. Like variance analysis, it
helps you determine your progress toward achieving program goals (See Chapter 1, Subchapter 1.6
for a review on variance analysis.) They are typically found in the risk management plan. However,
in some cases, they are created separately from these documents.
The KPIs will differ according to what was agreed upon by the program team members,
management, and stakeholders. However, to determine the effectiveness of your methodologies as
accurately as possible, the indicators that you choose must generally be:
clear
well-defined
measurable
achievable
Although KPIs can be used to measure other factors other than those shown below, you can
generally categorise them into the following to review and determine whether the processes used
were sufficient:
▪ Timeliness
This involves comparing the estimated time of completion of each program activity and the
actual time taken. One example by which timeliness can be measured is by looking at the
deviation from the schedule (e.g., number of days of delays or number of days of lead time).
A program can be said to be successful in terms of timeliness if there is little to no deviation
from the projected schedule. Another example is by looking at the percentage of activities
that were completed on time.
▪ Budget
This involves a comparison between the estimated cost of the program and the actual cost.
If the deviation from the expected cost is huge, then this may be a sign that there were
additional costs due to risks that you were not able to anticipate.
This involves looking at how well the program has progressed in accordance with the goals
that your organisation set. This covers a wide range of indicators, depending on what is
being measured, such as:
o number of complaints to determine customer satisfaction
o number of regulatory requirements complied with
o number of errors committed to determining the quality of work of employees
▪ Effectiveness
This involves looking at how the resources are being used in your program and whether
they are being managed properly to achieve your goals.
When reviewing the program outcomes using the KPIs, you must remember to communicate and
consult with the program team members, including the relevant stakeholders and risk owners.
They will bring with them their personal experiences and insights during the implementation of the
project, which will help you get a better picture of the risk management processes and procedures.
Aside from helping you track the progress of your project, KPIs also identify which aspects of the
program you have done well in and which ones you need to improve on. For example, a large
deviation from the expected deadline will tell you that your program encountered issues in terms
of timeliness. On the other hand, if you only had a few client complaints, then this indicates that
you were successful in keeping your clients satisfied.
Once you have identified the issues and problems you encountered in your program, you can
consult with your team to discuss the reasons behind the issues and problems you encountered in
your program. For example, the reason behind the delays in your program tasks may be due to the
lack of an efficient communication system or an unreliable supplier of resources.
Consulting with your team will help you get different perspectives that will allow you to develop
your recommendations better. These recommendations can be used as references for future
programs.
meetings
progress reporting
surveys
Sourced from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (6th Edition).
The end goal of seeking feedback from relevant stakeholders on risk management outcomes is to
assess whether the program risk methodologies, tools, frameworks, systems, and standards used
were appropriate and adequate for your program.
You can ask stakeholders to share their experience of using the following risk methodology tools or
documents:
risk
risk analysis
risk register risk matrix management
process
systems
risk organisational
risk treatment
identification Internal
process
process standards
Responding to Feedback
Seeing as you will be speaking to different stakeholders from different departments, it is important
to keep in mind to always be courteous when giving feedback. For more information on how you
can go about giving feedback, bear the following steps in mind when you receive feedback:
For example, thanking the individual for sharing their experience regarding the risk
identification process is one way of acknowledging feedback.
If in another scenario where a team member is expressing their frustration with you because
of program activity, still acknowledge this feedback and do so politely.
This is because the terminology that you will be using to explain concerns to the IT staff will
not be the same as when you explain plumbing concerns to the plumbing crew.
Some feedback can be vague. It is important that you ask questions so that you will be able
to determine the root cause of the issue. This is also so that you can respond to the feedback
with the necessary details as well.
Before programs come to a close, a lessons learned register must be completed. The lessons learned
register is a document that collects all the learnings you and your team have gained from performing
the program. Even though the lessons learned report is officially done near the completion of the
program, collection and documenting of important information regarding methodologies,
techniques and tools used may be done throughout the program risk management process.
▪ show the commitment of the management to developing a better risk management plan for
the organisation to prevent the recurrence of undesirable outcomes
▪ ensure that the information regarding processes and policies is accessible to future project
managers
▪ ensure the continuity of the best risk management practices of the organisation
▪ serve as the basis for the improvement of risk management of future programs.
The analysis of lessons learned is simply a discussion of the learnings acquired throughout the life
cycle of the program. This discussion will no longer be of any effect to the current program as this
is normally done before the program brings to a close. This is formally done in order to talk about
improvements or change initiatives for the upcoming programs instead.
Discussions in the analysis of lessons learned are normally headed by program managers together
with other stakeholders. You, as the program manager, will be the one facilitating the meeting,
which seeks to ask the following common questions asked during lessons learned analysis:
This involves the program or organisational objectives that were successfully met by the
end of the program.
This involves the program or organisational objectives that were not successfully met by
the end of the program.
This involves the experience-derived opinion of stakeholders regarding what they think
must be done if a similar occurrence in a different program transpires.
The goal of documenting a lessons report is for it to be recommended for future use. The format
of the documentation depends on the needs of the organisation. However, the documentation
must be clear and as detailed as possible. Below are the components of a generic lessons learned
template that you must note when documenting program learnings.
▪ Program identification – includes the program name, program ID, program start and end
date, and other important information on how you can identify this program the next time
you pull it up as a reference for future programs.
▪ Lessons learned identification – contains the name of the specific lessons you have gained
in implementing the program risk management plan. For proper recommendation of these
documents, the naming convention of the lessons learned must be in a way connected to
the program it is derived from. That way, lessons learned documents would not be mixed
up and mistakenly associated with an entirely different program. The date when the lessons
learned document was completed must also be provided.
▪ Process group – is normally presented in boxes that you can tick. You must specify whether
the lessons learned are documented in the planning, implementing or controlling or
concluding phase of the risk management.
▪ Relevant stakeholders – refer to who should be informed about the lesson log for future
programs. It can be addressed to the program executives, program managers, project
officers, or staff.
▪ Successes and failures – in essence, is a summary of the successes and failures that must
also be properly logged. This is for reference to the future stakeholders being addressed by
the documented lessons learned should they encounter a similar situation in the future.
Like in the previous section, this step must be undertaken together with the program team
members, relevant stakeholders, and risk owners to gain their perspective. This can be done through
meetings and consultations.
The recommended improvements must also be presented to the management for review and
approval. The management will ensure that the recommendations are still aligned with the
organisation’s current and future goals.
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