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PREDICTING INFLUENZA A (H1N1) VIRUS SPREAD: A

MATHEMATICAL MODELING APPROACH WITH THE SIR
MODEL

_____________________

A Mathematical Modeling
Presented to the Faculty of the College of Teachers Education
Of Kolehiyo ng Pantukan, Pantukan,
Davao de Oro

____________________

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the

Degree of Bachelor of Secondary Education
Major in Mathematics

CAMPOREDONDO, JOAN B.
AUZA, MARK JOSHUA
TONAREZ, NG PEARL R.
AGYADAN, MAE ANN

June 2024

INTRODUCTION
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The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model (SIR) is a math

model often used to simulate how infectious diseases spread. It's

typically done on a grid where individuals move randomly, can

catch the disease, get sick, and then get better (Boquet G and

Stigler B, 2004). The model is widely used in various scenarios,

such as studying the spread of high-risk viruses like SARS and

simulating how computer viruses spread through networks (Small

M, et. al., 2004).

A recent outbreak of a new strain of Influenza A virus,

known as H1N1, reached a global pandemic level 6 as declared

by the World Health Organization (WHO). This strain contains

genetic material from four different influenza viruses: North

American Mexican influenza, avian influenza, swine influenza, and

human influenza (Trifonov V, et, al., 2009).

The virus has spread to the Philippines, causing numerous

cases of influenza with a relatively low mortality rate. This study

investigated how the new H1N1 strain might behave within close-

knit communities common in our country, using a basic SIR

model. The research also examined potential mutations that

could occur in the new strain and analyzed their potential effects

on the population.
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METHODOLOGY
In this study, an extended and modified version of the SIR

model, which is typically used to simulate virus spread, was

employed. The model utilized a grid consisting of 25 x 25 lattice

sites, with an initial population of 300 people (Wilensky, U. 1998).

Each person in the grid was assigned random positions and ages,

ranging from 0 to 100 years. Several attributes were assigned to

each individual to track their status throughout the simulation: (1)

Healthy but susceptible - These individuals are healthy but not

immune to the virus, so they can be infected; (2) Immune -

People who have developed immunity to the virus and cannot be

infected; (3) Sick - Individuals who have been infected with the

virus and have developed swine flu symptoms.

The SIR model is a key framework for analyzing the spread

of infectious diseases. It divides the population into three

categories: Susceptible (S), individuals who are at risk of

contracting the disease; Infectious (I), individuals who are

currently infected and can spread the disease; and Recovered

(R), individuals who have recovered from the disease and gained

immunity. Define the model's parameters, which include the total

population (N), the transmission rate (β) that measures the speed
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at which susceptible individuals become infected, and the

recovery rate (γ) that reflects the speed at which infected

individuals recover.

Set up the differential equations that govern the model.

The equations are:

dS SI
 =− β , which describes the rate at which susceptible
dt N

individuals become infected.

dI SI
 =β −γI , which describes the rate at which individuals
dt N

move from being susceptible to infected, and then to

recovered.

dR
 =γI , which describes the rate at which infected individual
dt

recovers.

These equations describe how the numbers of susceptible,

infectious, and recovered individuals change over time.

On the other hand, specific traits were identified for the

H1N1 virus, which include: (1) Degree of infectiousness, α -This

trait measures how easily the virus spreads. It is expressed as a

percentage (e.g., 50% infectiousness means there is a 50%

chance a susceptible person will acquire the virus during direct

contact); (2) Chance of recovery, β - This indicates the probability

that a person will recover after contracting the virus. For fatal
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viruses, the chance of recovery is low, and vice versa; (3)

Sickness duration, γ - This refers to the time required for a person

to either recover or succumb to the disease.

The simulation begins by placing the population randomly

on the grid with various ages assigned randomly. Additionally,

one person who is already sick (infected with the swine flu virus)

is placed randomly on the lattice sites. Since the Influenza H1N1

virus is a new strain, none of the population on the grid have

immunity to it, so all individuals are initially considered healthy

but susceptible to the disease. However, recent research has

shown that older individuals may have developed some immunity

to the new influenza strain, providing some exceptions to this

general susceptibility (“Swine Flu Shares Some Features with

1918 Pandemic”, 2009). This immunity in older individuals was

attributed to the 1918 global pandemic, during which a very

similar influenza strain, also known as the H1N1 strain, caused

over 50 million deaths worldwide (Wilensky, U., 1998). It was

confirmed that individuals born before 1918, who were exposed

to the old H1N1 strain, possess a characteristic immunity to the

new H1N1 strain, illustrating long-term immune memory.

Therefore, in our simulation model, individuals aged 90 and

above were considered immunized against the new H1N1 strain.

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In the simulation, individuals on the grid moved randomly

across the lattice, with multiple people able to occupy the same

lattice site. If a sick person encountered one or more healthy but

susceptible individuals, they could transmit the disease. However,

if immune individuals came into contact with sick individuals,

they remained unaffected. Once a person became sick, they

experienced the disease for approximately three weeks (based on

a two-week incubation period and one week of active sickness).

After this period, the person either recovered and became

immune or succumbed to the illness. The simulation analyzed the

virus's behavior over a span of 10 years (scaled in weeks),

monitoring the numbers of healthy but susceptible, immune, and

sick individuals.

Furthermore, to understand the potential consequences of

virus mutations, three mutation scenarios were simulated with

different parameter sets: (a) High α (infectiousness) but low β

(recovery rate); (b) Low α and low β; (c) Low α but high β values.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Figure 1 depicts a plot showing the numbers of healthy but

susceptible individuals, immune individuals, and sick individuals

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monitored over a period of ten years for the H1N1 virus. The

parameters used in the simulation are α = 90% (degree of

infectiousness), β = 95% (chance of recovery), and γ = 3 weeks

(sickness duration). These parameters represent the current

observed characteristics of the H1N1 virus.

Figure 1 Plot of the numbers of healthy but susceptible,

immune and sick persons for H1N1 parameters of α = 90%, β =
95% and γ = 3 weeks

The plot illustrates the typical dynamics of virus spread,

where the number of healthy individuals decreases over time as

the number of sick individual increases. After a certain period,

some people recover from the illness and become immune to the

virus. Unfortunately, some individuals also succumb to the

disease. According to the plot, the disease is eliminated after the

10-year simulation period.

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Despite a high number of cases (approximately 288

individuals affected), the number of fatalities is relatively low (18

individuals). This leaves a remaining population of about 282 out

of the original 300. This outcome suggests that although the new

H1N1 virus strain has high infectiousness, its high recovery

chance mitigates the severity of casualties, resulting in a global

pandemic with a lower fatality rate.

Figure 2 Plot of
the numbers of healthy but susceptible, immune and sick
persons for H1N1 parameters of α = 90%, β = 10% and γ = 3
weeks

In order to analyze the potential outcomes of virus

mutations, simulations were conducted for several mutation

scenarios. One of these scenarios, depicted in Figure 2, involved a

mutation where the virus maintained a high infectiousness (90%)

but the chance of recovery was reduced to 10%.

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As shown in the plot, this mutation resulted in a significant

increase in casualties, with 232 deaths observed. Only a few

individuals survived the disease by the end of the 10-year

simulation period, despite the virus being eradicated. This

scenario demonstrates a high fatality rate, similar to the

catastrophic impact seen during the 1918 epidemic.

If the virus were to follow this path of mutation, it could

potentially lead to a repeat of the devastating consequences

observed in the 1918 pandemic. Such scenarios highlight the

critical importance of understanding and preparing for potential

mutations in infectious diseases.

Figure 3 Plot of
the numbers of healthy but susceptible, immune and sick
persons for H1N1 parameters of α = 10%, β = 10% and γ = 3
weeks
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Figure 3 displays the population plot for mutation case (b) in

the simulation. In this scenario, it is evident that a large portion of

the population did not contract the virus. However, the number of

deaths (approximately 29) is notably higher compared to the

scenario with the normal H1N1 traits.

During the 10-year simulation period, about 54 individuals

on average were infected with the virus. Despite the relatively

low number of infections, the fatality rate is considerable, with

deaths accounting for about 54% of those infected. This

underscores that the recovery chance, rather than the degree of

infectiousness, plays a crucial role in determining casualties.

Additionally, after the 10-year period, some individuals still

remain infected with the virus in this mutation case. This

suggests that under conditions of low infectiousness and low

recovery chance, it may take a prolonged period to contain the

disease, prolonging the virus's impact.

To further explore this issue, mutation case (c) was also

investigated, and its results are depicted in Figure 4. In this

scenario, only one person died from the disease out of an

average of 49 cases of H1N1-infected individuals. This low fatality

rate can be attributed to the high chance of recovery. However,

similar to mutation case (b), the virus continues to infect

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individuals beyond the 10-year period, indicating an extended

duration of virus prevalence.

Further simulations indicate that the degree of

infectiousness influences the duration during which the H1N1

virus remains prevalent. While the chance of recovery determines

the number of casualties and recoveries after infection,

infectiousness can be seen as a measure of how quickly the

disease can be controlled.

Figure 4 5 Plot of
the numbers of healthy but susceptible, immune and sick
persons for H1N1 parameters of α = 10%, β = 95% and γ = 3
weeks

It was observed that higher infectiousness results in a

shorter period during which the virus remains prevalent, whereas

lower infectiousness leads to a longer duration of virus

prevalence. This phenomenon likely occurs because once

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individuals are exposed to the virus and recover, they become

immune to it. Therefore, a virus that spreads quickly allows more

people to build immunity, thereby reducing its overall impact

over time.

Conversely, a slow-spreading virus prolongs the infection

period because fewer people become immune, thus extending

the duration of the outbreak.

These simulations suggest that rapid virus spread, despite

causing more immediate infections, may ultimately be beneficial

as it facilitates quicker development of herd immunity and

shortens the virus's "reigning" period.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

A SIR model was used to simulate the impact of certain

traits of the H1N1 virus on a community population. Two key viral

traits were emphasized: infectiousness and recovery chance.

Based on the current known attributes of the virus, which include

high infectiousness and a high recovery rate, our simulations

confirmed that many individuals could become infected while

resulting in minimal deaths.

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Additionally, we explored potential mutations of the virus

and observed that the number of deaths tends to correlate with

the chance of recovery, while the duration until disease

elimination correlates with infectiousness. This implies that a

virus's ability to spread quickly is advantageous because it

exposes more individuals to the virus, thereby activating their

immune systems more effectively.

Conversely, a virus that spreads slowly may prolong the

elimination process due to the slower activation of immune

responses in the population.

In summary, our findings suggest that rapid virus spread,

facilitated by high infectiousness, can lead to quicker

establishment of immunity across the population, ultimately

reducing the severity and duration of the outbreak.

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