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Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh

Article in International Journal of Climatology · December 2010

DOI: 10.1002/joc.2053

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh

Shamsuddin Shahid

Department of Geology, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

Spatial patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall trends of Bangladesh over the time period

1958-2007 has been assessed using rainfall data recorded at seventeen stations distributed

over the country. Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method are used to detect the

significance and the magnitude of rainfall change respectively. Historical dry and wet months

are identified by using Standardized Precipitation Index method and their trends are analyzed

to assess the possible change in wet and dry events in Bangladesh. The result shows a

significant increase in the average annual and pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. The

number of wet months is found to increase and the dry months to decrease in most parts of

the country. Seasonal analysis of wet and dry months shows significant decrease of dry

months in monsoon and pre-monsoon.

Keywords: Rainfall trends, standardized precipitation index, extreme events, climate change,

geographical information system, Bangladesh.

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

Introduction

Bangladesh is an agriculture based country where about 80% of its 145 million people are

directly or indirectly engaged in a wide range of agricultural activities (Banglapedia, 2003).

Rainfall is the most important natural factor that determines the agricultural production in

Bangladesh. The variability of rainfall and the pattern of extreme high or low precipitation

are very important for the agriculture as well as the economy of the country. It is well

established that the rainfall is changing on both the global (Hulme et al., 1998; Lambert et al.,

2003; Dore, 2005) and the regional scales (Rodriguez-Puebla et al., 1998; Gemmer et al.,

2004; Kayano and Sansigolo, 2008) due to global warming. The implications of these

changes are particularly significant for Bangladesh where hydrological disasters of one kind

or another is a common phenomenon (Shahid and Behrawan, 2008). Bangladesh is one of the

most flood prone countries in the world due to its geographic position (Banglapedia, 2003).

Drought in northwestern part of the country is also a common phenomenon (Shahid, 2008;

Shahid and Behrawan, 2008). The country experienced a number of extreme dry and wet

periods in last fifty years. Heavy rainfall in the monsoon of 2007 together with the onset of

flooding by Himalayan-fed Rivers resulted severe flood in Bangladesh which affected more

than nine million people in more than half of the districts of the country. On the other hand

drought due to low precipitation in 1994-1995 led to a decrease in rice and wheat production

by 3.5 × 10 6 metric ton (Rahman and Biswas, 1995).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) termed Bangladesh as one of

the most vulnerable countries in the world due to climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change, 2007). Hydrologic changes are the most significant impacts of climate

change in Bangladesh. A study on climate change vulnerability based on certainty of impact,

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

timing, severity of impacts and importance of the sector, ranked water resources as the

greatest concern due to climate change in Bangladesh (Organization for Economic Co-

operation and Development, 2003). It has been predicted that due to climate change, there

will be a steady increase in temperature and rainfall of Bangladesh (Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change, 2007). Small changes in the mean and standard deviation values can

produce relatively large changes in the probability of occurrence of extreme events

(Groisman et al., 1999; Rodrigo, 2002; Chiew, 2006; Su et al., 2008). Studies in different

parts of the world indicate that global warming has altered the precipitation patterns and

resulted frequent extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and rainstorms (WMO

2003; Schmidli and Frei, 2005; Zhang et al. 2008; Zhang et al., 2009; Briffa, et al., 2009).

The study of rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry events are therefore important

for long-term water resources planning, agricultural development and disaster management in

Bangladesh in the context of global climatic change.

Though a number of studies have been carried out on rainfall patterns (Ahmed and

Karmaker, 1993; Rahman et al., 1997; Hussain and Sultana, 1996; Kripalini et al., 1996;

Ahmed and Kim, 2003; Shahid et al., 2005; Shahid, 2008; Islam and Uyeda, 2008), very few

works have been found on rainfall trends and extremes in Bangladesh. Rahman et al. (1997)

used trend analysis to study the changes in monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh and found no

significant change. Ahmed (1989) estimated the probabilistic rainfall extremes in Bangladesh

during the pre-monsoon season. Karmakar and Khatun (1995) repeated a similar study on

rainfall extremes during the southwest monsoon season. However, both the studies were

focused only on the maximum rainfall events for a limited period. May (2004) reported that

the frequency of wet days has noticeably increased over the tropical Indian Ocean. He
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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

predicted that intensity of heavy rainfall events of Bangladesh will be increased in the future.

Immerzeel (2007) predicted accelerated seasonal increases in precipitation in 21st century

with strongest increase in monsoon for the Brahmaputra basin.

A study has been carried out in this paper to assess the changes in rainfall and extreme

events in Bangladesh through the analysis of the spatial patterns of the trends of long-term

annual and seasonal rainfall as well as the number of wet and dry months in different seasons.

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method (Mckee et al., 1993) is used to identify the

wet and dry months from rainfall time series. Mann-Kendall trend analysis (Mann 1945;

Kendall 1975) and the Sen’s slope (Sen, 1968) method are used to detect the presence of

significant change and the magnitude of change respectively. Geographical Information

System (GIS) is used to show the spatial variation of trends over the country.

Climate of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is primarily a low-lying plain of about 144,000 km2, situated on deltas of large

rivers flowing from the Himalayas. Geographically, it extends from 20°34'N to 26°38'N

latitude and from 88°01'E to 92°41'E longitude. Bangladesh has a sub-tropical humid climate

characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and

high humidity (Rashid, 1991). Four distinct seasons can be recognized in Bangladesh from

climatic point of view: (i) the dry winter season from December to February, (ii) the pre-

monsoon hot summer season from March to May, (iii) the rainy monsoon season from June

to September, and (iv) the post-monsoon autumn season which lasts from October to

November. Rainfall variability in space and time is one of the most relevant characteristics of

the climate of Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of rainfall in Bangladesh is shown in Figure

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

1(a). Rainfall in Bangladesh varies from 1400 mm in the west to more than 4300 mm in the

east of the country. Higher rainfall in the northeast is caused by the additional uplifting effect

of the Meghalaya plateau. Rainfall in Bangladesh mostly occurs in monsoon, caused by weak

tropical depressions that are brought from the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh by the wet

monsoon winds. Monthly distribution of rainfall over Bangladesh is shown in Figure 1(b).

More than 75% rainfall in Bangladesh occurs in monsoon. The average temperature of the

country ranges from 170C to 20.60C during winter and 26.90C to 31.10C during summer. The

average relative humidity for the whole year ranges from 70.5% to 78.1% in Bangladesh

(Banglapedia, 2003).

The topography of Bangladesh is extremely flat (Figure 3(a)) with some upland in the

northeast and the southeast. The plain land lies almost at sea level along the southern part of

the country and rises gradually towards north. Land elevation in the plain varies from 1 to 60

meters above the sea level from south to north. The hilly areas are located in the southeastern

and northeastern regions and the terrace land can be found in the northwestern and central

regions of the country. Landuse map of Bangladesh (United Nations Environment Program,

1994) is shown in Figure 3(b). Agriculture, being the main economic mainstay of the country,

covers almost all cultivable land of Bangladesh. About 68% land of the country is used for

agriculture and village settlement. Rivers and standing water bodies covers almost 13% of the

area. About 14% area is covered by mangrove and upland forests. Urban area covers about

5% of the land and the rest is used for other purposes.

Data and Methodology

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

Fifty years (1958-2007) monthly rainfall records of seventeen stations of Bangladesh are

collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study. Location of

rainfall recording stations in Bangladesh is shown in Figure 2. Out of seventeen stations

complete set of data was available in twelve stations. Percentage of missing data in rest of the

stations was less than 2%. If data for one monsoon or pre-monsoon month of a year is found

missing then that year is discarded from the trend analysis.

The homogeneity of the rainfall records are analyzed by calculating the von Neumann

ratio (Von Neumann, 1941), Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) (Alexandersson,

1986), and the Range test (Buishand, 1982). The data sets of all the stations are found

homogeneous. Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect the trend in rainfall time series.

Confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 99% are taken as thresholds to classify the significance of

positive and negative trends. The methods used in the present study are discussed below.

Mann-Kendall trend test

In Mann-Kendall test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) the data are evaluated as an ordered time

series. Each data is compared to all subsequent data. The initial value of the Mann-Kendall

statistic, S, is assumed to be 0 (e.g., no trend). If a data from a later time period is higher than

a data from an earlier time period, S is incremented by 1. On the other hand, if the data from

a later time period is lower than a data sampled earlier, S is decremented by 1. The net result

of all such increments and decrements yields the final value of S. If x1 , x2 , x3 ….. xi

represent n data points where x j represents the data point at time j, then S is given by,
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

n -1 n
S =∑ ∑sign(x j - xk ) (1)
k =1 j = k +1

Where:

1 if (x j − xk ) > 0

sign(x j - xk ) = 0 if (x j − xk ) = 0
− 1 if (x j − xk ) < 0


The probability associated with S and the sample size, n, are then computed to

statistically quantify the significance of the trend. Normalized test statistic Z is computed as

follows:

 S -1
 VAR ( S ) if S >0

Z = 0 if S =0 (2)
 S -1
 if S <0
 VAR ( S )

At the 99% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if Z > 2.575 ; at

95% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if Z > 1.96 ; and at 95%

significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if Z > 1.645 . More details of

Mann-Kendall test can be found in Sneyers (1990).

Sen’s slope estimator

Some trends may not be evaluated to be statistically significant while they might be of

practical interest (Yue and Hashino, 2003; Basistha et al., 2007). Even if climate change

component is present, it may not be detected by statistical tests at a satisfactory significance

level (Radziejewski and Kundzewicz, 2004). Therefore, in the present study, linear trend

analysis is also carried out and the magnitude of trend is estimated by Sen’s Slope method
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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

(Sen, 1968). Sen’s Slope method gives a robust estimation of trend (Yue et al., 2002). The

method requires a time series of equally spaced data. The method proceeds by calculating the

slope as a change in measurement per change in time,

xt / - x t
Q/ = (3)
t/ - t

Where, Q / = slope between data points xt / and xt

xt / = data measurement at time t /

xt = data measurement at time t

Sen's estimator of slope is simply given by the median slope,

Q = Q / [( N +1) / 2] if N is odd
(4)
= (Q / [ N / 2] + Q / [( N +2) / 2] ) / 2 if N is even

Where, N is the number of calculated slopes.

Standardized precipitation index

Standardized precipitation index (SPI) (Mckee et al., 1993) is a widely used drought index

based on the probability of precipitation for multiple time scales, e.g. one-, three-, six-, nine-,

twelve-, eighteen- and twenty-month. It provides a comparison of the precipitation over a

specific period with the precipitation totals from the same period for all the years included in

the historical record. Consequently, it facilitates the temporal analysis of wet and dry

phenomena.

To compute SPI, historic rainfall data of each station are fitted to a gamma probability

distribution function:
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

1
g (x ) = χ α −1 e − x / β for x>0 (5)
β Γ(α )
α

Where α > 0 is a shape parameter, β > 0 is a scale parameter, x > 0 is the amount of

precipitation, and Γ(α ) defines the gamma function.

The maximum likelihood solutions are used to optimally estimate the gamma

distribution parameters, α and β for each station and for each time scale:

1  4A 
α= 1 + 1 +  (6)

4A  3 

x
β=
α

Where:

A = ln ( x ) −
∑ ln(x )
n

n = number of precipitation observations.

This allows the rainfall distribution at the station to be effectively represented by a

mathematical cumulative probability function as given by:

x x
1
G ( x ) = ∫ g ( x ) dx =
β Γ(α ) ∫0
α
x α −1 e − x β dx (7)
0

Since the gamma function is undefined for x = 0 and a precipitation distribution may contain

zeros, the cumulative probability becomes:

H ( x ) = q + (1 − q )G ( x ) (8)

Where, q is the probability of a zero. The cumulative probability H (x ) is then transformed to

the standard normal distribution to yield the SPI (McKee et al., 1993).
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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

As the precipitation rate is fitted to a gamma distribution for different multiple time

scales for each month of the year, the resulting function represents the cumulative probability

of a rainfall event of a station for a given month of the dataset and at different multiple time

scale of interest. This allows establishing a classification values for SPI. McKee et al. (1993)

classified wet and dry events according to SPI values as given in Table 1. Detail of the SPI

algorithm can be found in McKee et al. (1993; 1995).

Spatial Interpolation

For the mapping of spatial pattern of trends from point data Kriging interpolation method is

used. Geostatistical analysis tool of ArcMap 9.1 (ESRI, 2004) is used for this purpose.

Kriging is a stochastic interpolation method (Journel and Huijbregts, 1981; Isaaks and

Srivastava, 1989), which is widely recognized as the standard approach for surface

interpolation based on scalar measurements at different points. Studies show that Kriging

gives better global predictions than other methods (van Beers and Kleijnen, 2004). Kriging is

an optimal surface interpolation method based on spatially dependent variance, which is

generally expressed as semi-variogram. Surface interpolation using kriging depends on the

selected semi-variogram model and the semi-variogram must be fitted with a mathematical

function or model. Depending on the shape of semi-variograms, different models are used in

the present study for their fitting.

Rainfall is a dynamic phenomenon, which changes over time and space. Complete

analysis of rainfall events requires study both of its spatial and temporal extents.

Hydrological investigation over a large area requires assimilation of information from many

sites each with a unique geographic location (Shahid et al., 2000; Shahid et al., 2002). GIS
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

maintains the spatial location of sampling points, and provides tools to relate the sampling

data contained through a relational database. Therefore, it can be used effectively for the

analysis of spatially distributed hydro-meteorological data and modeling. In the present

paper, GIS is used to show the spatial variation of rainfall trends.

Results and Discussion

Trends of annual rainfall

The annual rainfall data of 17 stations of Bangladesh are averaged to get the time series of

annual average rainfall of Bangladesh for the period 1958-2007 which is shown in Figure

4(a). The mean annual rainfall for the period over Bangladesh is 2488 mm. The deviation of

annual precipitation from the mean precipitation is found to vary from +413 to -571 mm. The

trend analysis of annual average rainfall time series by Mann-Kendall test reveals the

presence of a positive trend at the 90% level of confidence. Mann-Kendall normalized test

statistic (Z) of 1.957 means the trend is very close to 95% level of confidence. The analysis

of annual rainfall by Sen’s slope method shows that the annual average rainfall is increasing

at a rate of +5.525 mm/year in Bangladesh.

The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation trends can be helpful for better

understanding of rainfall variations in Bangladesh. Therefore, annual rainfall trends at each

17 stations are calculated and interpolated to prepare the map of spatial pattern of annual

rainfall trends of Bangladesh which is shown in Figure 4(b). The classes in the map are based

on confidence levels. The numbers in the map show the magnitude of rainfall change in

millimeter/year during the time period 1958-2007. The numbers in white color indicate the

trends are statistically significant. The map shows an increasing trend of annual rainfall in
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

most of the stations of Bangladesh. Significant increase is observed in the western part of

Bangladesh. The maximum increase of annual rainfall is noted in northern Bangladesh by

16.45 mm/year at 99% level of confidence.

The monsoon of Bangladesh flows in two branches, one of which strikes western

India and the other travels up the Bay of Bengal and over eastern India and Bangladesh. The

monsoon from the Bay of Bengal crosses the plain to the north and northeast before being

turned to the west and northwest by the foothills of the Himalayas. Simulated increases in sea

surface temperature in general circulation model (CGM) show that it alters wind patterns to

the west of Bangladesh, leading to an accumulation of moisture in the region and greater

rainfall during the summer monsoon season (Cash et al., 2007). Therefore, it can be remarked

that the increase in rainfall in western part of Bangladesh might be an effect of global climate

change.

Besides the western part of Bangladesh, rainfall is found to increase significantly in

only one station located in the southeastern hill area at 95% level of confidence. The shift of

easterly anomalies in circulation leads the westerlies over India in July and the intensification

of the winds and rainfall in the southeastern part of Bangladesh (Cash et al., 2007).

Trends of seasonal rainfall

The time series of average monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh for the time period 1958-2007 is

shown in Figure 5(a). Mann-Kendall trend analysis of average monsoon rainfall shows no

significant change (Z = 1.02) of monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. The spatial pattern of

monsoon rainfall trends is shown in Figure 5(b). The numbers in the map show the amount of
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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

rainfall change in millimeter/year. The map shows an increase in monsoon rainfall in most of

the stations of Bangladesh. However, significant increase is observed only in northwestern

Bangladesh.

The time series of average pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh over the time period

1958-2007 is shown in Figure 6(a). The average pre-monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh is 435.8

mm. Mann-Kendall trend test shows a significant increase (Z = 2.24) of pre-monsoon rainfall

of Bangladesh at 95% level of confidence. The Sen’s slope analysis shows that the pre-

monsoon rainfall is increasing at a rate of 2.47 mm/year or approximately 0.55% per year.

Spatial pattern of pre-monsoon rainfall trends in Bangladesh (Figure 6(b)) shows significant

increase of pre-monsoon rainfall in northwestern and southeastern parts of Bangladesh. The

maximum increase is observed in north Bangladesh by 7.44 mm/year at 99% level of

confidence.

No significant change in post monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh for the time period

1958-2007 (Figure 7(a)) is observed by Mann-Kendall test (Z = 1.04). Spatial pattern of post

monsoon rainfall trends (Figure 7(b)) shows an increase of post-monsoon rainfall in all over

the country. However, significant increase is observed in central north part of Bangladesh at

95% level of confidence. Beside that post-monsoon rainfall is also found to increase in

Khulna situated in the southwestern part of the country at 90% level of confidence.

No significant change (Z = 0.78) is also observed in the winter rainfall (Figure 8(a))

of Bangladesh. Spatial pattern of winter rainfall trends, as shown in Figure 8(b) shows a

significant change in winter rainfall only in two stations, one in the south and the other in the
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

north. Maximum increase of winter rainfall is observed at Dinajpur station by 0.5 mm/year at

95% level of confidence.

Thunderstorms are the sources of pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh (Sanderson and

Ahmed, 1978). The thunderstorm begins in the northeastern and eastern parts of the country

by the first week of March. The thunderstorm activity gradually moves westward, and

becomes significant in the western part of the country before the advent of the summer

monsoon in late May or early June. During the early part of the thunderstorm season, a zone

of discontinuity crosses the country from the southwest to the northeast separates the hot dry

air from the dry interior of India, and the warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal (Sanderson

and Ahmed, 1978). The activity of the thunderstorms during the pre-monsoon season depends

on the supply of moist air from the Bay of Bengal. Stronger and more continuous winds from

the Bay of Bengal during pre-monsoon months due to the increase of sea surface temperature

may be the cause of increased pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh.

Pre-monsoon rainfall is very important for agriculture of Bangladesh. Increase pre-

monsoon precipitation can reduce the groundwater irrigation demand in Boro rice field which

shares almost 70% of total rice production of Bangladesh. Therefore, it may help to decrease

the pressure on groundwater resources in northwestern Bangladesh where declining

groundwater level is a major problem due to the overexploitation of groundwater for

irrigation.

Trends of wet and dry months

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The paper should be cited as: Shahid S. (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of
wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

The standardized precipitation index is designed to flexibly present the incremental rainfall

excess or deficit at any time scale of interest (McKee et al. 1993). Therefore, SPI can be used

as an indicator of drought or flood (Giddings, et al. 2005). Shahid (2008) used SPI to study

the spatial and temporal pattern of droughts in western part of Bangladesh. Seiler et al.

(2002) used SPI to study the recurrent floods affecting the southern Cordoba Province in

Argentina and found that SPI satisfactorily explains the development of conditions leading up

to the three main flood events in the region. As the one-month SPI (SPI-1) reflects relatively

short-term conditions, it can be a good indicator of short-term soil moisture and crop stress as

well as flood if properly interpreted (National Drought Mitigation Center, 2006). Therefore,

in the present study, SPI-1 is calculated and analyzed to assess the trends of rain induced

extreme events in Bangladesh.

SPI-1 time series for the period 1958-2007 is calculated at each 17 stations of

Bangladesh. SPI-1 values for only non-winter months i.e., from March to November are

considered for analysis in the present study. Rainfall during winter accounts less than 2% of

total rainfall of Bangladesh. If rainfall is normally low during a month, large negative or

positive SPI-1s may result even though the departure from the mean is relatively small

(National Drought Mitigation Center, 2006). Therefore, SPI-1s of winter months are not

considered in trend analysis. The annual maximum and minimum SPI-1 values of all the

stations during non-winter months are averaged to get the maximum and minimum SPI-1

time series of Bangladesh over the time period 1958-2007, which are shown in Figures 9(a)

and 10(a) respectively. The maximum SPI-1 means the wettest month and the minimum SPI-

1 means the driest month in a year. Maximum and minimum SPI-1 values of Bangladesh are

found to vary from 0.9 to 2.1 and from -0.6 to -2.05 respectively during the time period 1958-
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

2007. The trend analysis shows that the maximum SPI-1 is increasing significantly at 95%

level of confidence (Figure 9(a)). On the other hand, a non-significant decreasing trend is

observed for minimum SPI-1 (Figure 10(a)).

Maximum and minimum SPI-1 trends at each 17 station are also calculated and

interpolated to prepare the maps of spatial pattern of maximum and minimum SPI-1 trends in

Bangladesh which are shown in Figures 9(b) and 10(b) respectively. The classes in the maps

are based on the confidence levels. The numbers in the maps are Z values which indicate the

trend of annual maximum (minimum) SPI-1 over the time period 1958-2007. The map of

maximum SPI-1 (Figure 9(b)) shows significant increase of maximum SPI-1 in north and

southeast Bangladesh. Isolated pockets of significant increase of maximum SPI-1 are also

observed in northeast and southwest parts of Bangladesh. The strongest trend is observed in

the north Bangladesh where the Z value is 3.09. Spatial pattern of minimum SPI-1 of

Bangladesh (Figure 10(b)) shows that the major parts of the country are characterized by

increasing trend of minimum SPI-1 i.e., decreasing of dry events. A decreasing trend of

minimum SPI-1 is observed in the central eastern part of the country. However, neither the

increasing nor the decreasing trends are statistically significant.

The study reveals that with the increase of rainfall in Bangladesh, the intensity of wet

months has also increased. Most significant increase of maximum SPI-1 is observed in

northern Bangladesh where highest increase of annual and monsoon rainfall is recorded.

However, the spatial pattern of annual rainfall trend is not similar to that of maximum SPI-1.

The SPI-1 (Figure 9(b)) also found to increase in the areas where no significant increase of

annual (Figure 4(b)) or monsoon (Figure 5(b)) rainfalls is observed. Concentration of rainfall
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

in the particular months of a year can cause an increase of SPI-1. A positive trend in monthly

precipitation concentration is observed in the areas where SPI-1 is increasing but at the same

time annual or monsoon rainfall is not increasing significantly. Therefore, it may be remarked

that increasing trend of SPI-1 in those areas may be due to the concentration of rainfall.

Seasonal trends of wet and dry months

The wet events during the monsoons are often responsible for floods and the dry events in

pre-monsoon are responsible for crop stress and production loss in Bangladesh. Therefore,

trends of wet and dry months during monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons are analyzed to

assess the change in extreme periods in Bangladesh. Wet and dry months during monsoon

and pre-monsoon seasons for the last fifty years (1958-2007) are identified by using SPI

method and classified into three categories (Table 1) according to their severity. As the

number of dry or wet months of extreme category during monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons

are very few, the trends of wet or dry months of this category are not analyzed in the present

study. The trends in the number of dry and wet months of severe and moderate categories in

monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons are given in Table 2. The result shows significant

increase in the number of moderate wet months during pre-monsoon at 95% level of

confidence. Number of monsoon wet months of different categories is also found to increase

though the increases are not statistically significant. On the other hand, significant decrease

of moderate and severe dry months during pre-monsoon and severe dry months during

monsoon are observed in Bangladesh over the time period 1958-2007.

Spatial patterns of the trends of moderate and severe wet months in monsoon, and

moderate and severe dry months during pre-monsoon are also prepared as those events are
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

important for Bangladesh. Figure 11(a) and (b) show the spatial patterns of the trends in the

number of monsoon wet months of moderate and severe categories respectively. The figures

show an increasing number of moderate and severe wet months during monsoon in most parts

of Bangladesh. Significant increase of moderate monsoon wet months (Figure 11(a)) is

observed in north Bangladesh as well as in MCort station situated in southeast Bangladesh.

On the other hand, significant increase of severe monsoon wet months (Figure 11(b)) is

observed in southeast Bangladesh as well as in a station situated in north Bangladesh. The

strongest increasing trend of severe monsoon wet months is observed in Chittagong station

situated in the southeast hill region of Bangladesh. The region experienced a number of

landslides in the recent years. Significant increase of wet events may trigger more landslides

in the region in future. No significant increase of monsoon wet months is observed in the

flood prone areas of Bangladesh. However, increasing trends of severe wet months in the

upstream of the rivers (northern Bangladesh) might increase the possibility of floods in some

parts of Bangladesh.

The spatial patterns of trends in the number of pre-monsoon dry months of moderate

and severe categories are shown in Figures 12(a) and (b) respectively. The figures show

decrease of moderate and severe dry months in most of the stations in Bangladesh. However

the decreases are significant only in few stations. Significant decrease of moderate pre-

monsoon dry months (Figure 12(a)) is observed in two stations located in southeast

Bangladesh. On the other hand, significant decrease of severe dry months (Figure 12(b)) at

90% level of confidence is observed in two stations located in the southwestern part of

Bangladesh.
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

Rainfall and the wet events in pre-monsoon are very important in northern and

northwestern parts of Bangladesh as these events help to increase soil moisture contents and

crop productivity in the region. Drought in north and northwest Bangladesh especially during

pre-monsoon is a frequent phenomenon because of high rainfall variability (Shahid, 2008).

No significant decrease of dry months is observed in this part of the country and therefore it

is not possible to conclude that the situation of crop water stress during pre-monsoon will be

improved with the significant increase of pre-monsoon rainfall in the region.

Conclusion

A study has been carried out in this paper to assess the spatial patterns of the trends of long-

term annual and seasonal rainfall as well as number of wet and dry months to detect the

changes in rainfall and rain-induced extreme events in Bangladesh. The trend analysis shows

a significant increase of average annual rainfall of Bangladesh at a rate of 5.52 mm/year over

the time period 1958-2007. Spatial pattern of average annual rainfall shows that rainfall is

significantly increasing in the western part of Bangladesh. Increased sea surface temperature

might have altered the wind patterns to the west of Bangladesh, leading to an accumulation of

moisture and to an increasing of rainfall in the region. The trend analysis of seasonal rainfall

over Bangladesh shows no significant changes in monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall

of Bangladesh. However, a significant increase of pre-monsoon rainfall by 2.47 mm/year at

95% level of confidence is noted. The trend analysis of wet and dry months in Bangladesh

show that the number of wet months is increasing and the number of dry months is

decreasing both in monsoon and pre-monsoon in most parts of the country. Increased pre-

monsoon precipitation can reduce the pressure on groundwater for irrigation in Bangladesh.

However, it might not help to improve the crop water stress conditions in north and
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

northwestern region during pre-monsoon as no significant decrease of pre-monsoon dry

months is observed in this part of the country. Increasing annual rainfall and pre-monsoon

rainfall, and decreasing number of dry months may help to reduce the drought vulnerability

and increase crop productivity in some parts of Bangladesh. Increasing trends of moderate

and severe wet months in the upstream of the river might increase the possibility of floods in

some parts of the country. Increase of severe monsoon wet months and maximum SPI-1 in

southeast hill region of Bangladesh may accelerate the landslide events in the area.
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wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology, 30(15):
2299–2313

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Table 1: The wet and dry event categories based on the classification of SPI values

SPI Category Probability of Occurrence

2.0 and above Extremely wet 2.3%

1.50 to 1.99 Severely wet 4.4%

1.00 to 1.49 Moderate wet 9.2%

0.99 to -0.99 Near normal 34.1%

-1.00 to -1.49 Moderate drought 9.2%

-1.50 to -1.99 Severe drought 4.4%

-2.00 and less Extreme drought 2.3%

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Table 2: Trends of SPI-1 values of different categories during monsoon and pre-monsoon

seasons. The bold numbers denote significant change.

Number of Wet and Dry months Mann-Kendal Z Value

Pre-monsoon moderate wet 2.36

Pre-monsoon severe wet 1.39

Pre-monsoon moderate dry -1.96

Pre-monsoon severe dry -2.60

Monsoon moderate wet 0.67

Monsoon severe wet 0.35

Monsoon moderate dry -0.67

Monsoon severe dry -1.65

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Figure 1: (a) Spatial distribution of rainfall; and (b) the monthly distribution of rainfall of

Bangladesh.
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Figure 2: Location of rain gauges used in the present study

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(b)
(a)

Figure 3: (a) Topographic; and (b) Landuse maps of Bangladesh (after United
Nations Environment Program, 1994)
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(a)

(b)
Figure 4: (a) Trend of average annual rainfall of Bangladesh shows a significant increase

during the time period 1958-2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of annual rainfall

trends in Bangladesh. The numbers in white color denote significant change.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 5: (a) Trend of average monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh during the time period 1958-

2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall trends in Bangladesh. The

numbers in white color denote significant change.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 6: (a) Trend of average pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh shows a significant increase

during the time period 1958-2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of pre-monsoon rainfall

trends in Bangladesh. The numbers in white color denote significant change.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 7: (a) Trend of average post-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh during the time period

1958-2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of post-monsoon rainfall trends in

Bangladesh. The numbers in white color denote significant change.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 8: (a) Trend of average winter rainfall of Bangladesh over the time period 1958-

2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of winter rainfall trends in Bangladesh. The

numbers in white color denote significant change.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 9: (a) Trend of monthly maximum SPI-1 of Bangladesh over the time period 1958-

2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of maximum SPI-1 trends for the same time

period. The numbers in the figure are Z values.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 10: (a) Trend of monthly minimum SPI of Bangladesh for the timer period 1958-

2007; and (b) the spatial pattern of minimum SPI trends for the same time

period. The numbers in the figure are Z values.

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(a) (b)

Figure 11: The spatial pattern of the trends in number of (a) moderate wet months (SPI-1 >

1.0) and (b) severe wet months (SPI-1 > 1.5) during monsoon. The numbers in the

figure are Z values. The numbers in white color indicate the trend is significant
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(a) (b)

Figure 12: The spatial pattern of the trends in number of (a) moderate dry months (SPI-1 >

1.0) and (b) severe dry months (SPI-1 > 1.5) during pre-monsoon. The numbers

in the figure are Z values. The numbers in white color indicate the trend is

significant

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