Lecture 13

CO1: Apply the knowledge about the concepts of probability and statistics for the computer
applications.
CO2: Evaluate the ideas of probability and random variables and various discrete and
continuous probability distributions and their properties.

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

All possible values of a discrete random variable together with their

probabilities of occurrence. It is called a discrete probability distribution. There

are two kinds of distributions in the discrete probability distribution.

i) Binomial Distribution, and

(ii) Poisson Distribution.

Let us discuss these two distributions in detail

Binomial Distribution

It is the basic and the most common probability distribution. It has been used to

describe a wide variety of processes in business. For example, a quality control

manager wants to know the probability of obtaining defective products in a

random sample of 10 products. If 10 per cent of the products are defective, he/

she can quickly obtain the answer, from tables of the binomial probability
distributions. It is also known as Bernoulli Distribution, as it was originated by

Swiss Mathematician James Bernoulli (1654-1705).

The binomial distribution describes discrete, not continuous, data resulting from

an experiment known as Bernoulli Process. Binomial distribution is a

probability distribution expressing the probability of one set of dichotomous

alternatives, i.e., success or failure.

As per this distribution, the probability of getting 0, 1, 2, …, n heads (or tails) in

n tosses of an unbiased coin will be given by the successive terms of the

expansion of (q + p)n , where p is the probability of success (heads) and q is the

probability of failure (i.e. = 1- p).

Binomial law of probability distribution is applicable only when:

a) A trial results in either success or failure of an event.

b) The probability of success ëpí remains constant in each trial.

c) The trials are mutually independent i.e., the outcome of any trial is neither

affected by others nor affects others.

Assumptions

i) Each trial has only two possible outcomes either Yes or No, success or failure,

etc.
ii) Regardless of how many times the experiment is performed, the probability

of the outcome, each time, remains the same.

iii) The trials are statistically independent.

iv) The number of trials is known and is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.

Binomial Probability Formula:

P(r) = nCr pr qn-r

where, P (r) = Probability of r successes in n trials;

p = Probability of success;

q = Probability of failure = 1 - p;

r = No. of successes desired; and

n = No. of trials undertaken

The determining equation for nCr can easily be written as:

n n!
Cr = r ! ( n−r ) !

n! can be simplified as follows:

n! = n (n-1)! = n (n-1) (n-2) ! = n (n-1) (n-2) (n-3) ! and so on.

binomial probability is perhaps more convenient.

n! r n−r
P(r )= pq
r ! ( n−r ) !

The symbol ! means factorial, which is computed as follows: 5! means 5 × 4 × 3

× 2 × 1 = 120. Mathematicians define 0! as 1.

If n is large in number, say, 50C3, then we can write (with the help of the above

explanation)

50 ! 50∗49∗48∗47 ! 50∗49∗48
50
C3 = 3! (50−3 ) ! = 3 ! 47 !
=
3∗2∗1

Similarly

75 ! 75∗74∗73∗72∗71∗70 ! 75∗74∗73∗72∗71∗70 !
75
C5 = 5! (75−5 ) ! = 5!∗70 !
=
5∗4∗3∗2∗1
,∧so on .

Characteristics of a Binomial Distribution

i) The form of the distribution depends upon the parameters ‘p’ and ‘n’.

ii) The probability that there are ‘r’ successes in ‘n’ no. of trials is given by

n! r n −r
P(r) = nCr pr qn-r¿ r ! ( n−r ) ! p q

iii) It is mainly applied when the population being sampled is infinite.

units sampled are replaced before the next trial is attempted. The point

worth noting is ‘p’ should remain unchanged.

Let us consider the following illustration to understand the application of

binomial distribution.

Illustration 1

A fair coin is tossed six times. What is the probability of obtaining four or more

heads?

Solution: When a fair coin is tossed, the probabilities of head and tail in case of
an unbiased coin are equal, i.e.,
Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion for the Binomial

Distribution

As discussed in the Introduction, the binomial distribution has expected values

of mean (µ) and a standard deviation (σ). We now see the computation of both

these statistical measures.

We can represent the mean of the binomial distribution as :

Mean (µ) = np.

where, n = Number of trials; p = probability of success

σ = √ npq

where, n = Number of trials; p = probability of success; and q = probability of

failure = 1 - p

Illustration 3

If the probability of defective bolts is 0.1, find the mean and standard deviation

for the distribution of defective bolts in a total of 50.

Solution: P = 0.1, n = 500

∴ Hence (µ) = np = 500 × 0.1 = 50

Thus, we can expect 50 bolts to be defective.

Standard Deviation (σ) = √ npq

n = 500, p = 0.1, q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9

∴ σ = 500 × .1× .9 = 6.71

Fitting a Binomial Distribution

When a binomial distribution is to be fitted to observed data, the following

procedure is adopted:
i) Determine the values of ‘p’ and ‘q’. If one of these values is known, the

other can be found out by the simple relationship p = 1- q and q = 1- p. If

p and q are equal, we can say, the distribution is symmetrical. On the

other hand if p’ and ‘q’ are not equal, the distribution is skewed. The

distribution is positively skewed, in case ‘p’ is less than 0.5, otherwise it

is negatively skewed.

ii) Expand the binomial (p + q)n . The power ‘n’ is equal to one less than the

number of terms in the expanded binomial. For example, if 3 coins are

tossed (n = 3) there will be four terms, when 5 coins are tossed (n = 5)

there will be 6 terms, and so on.

iii) Multiply each term of the expanded binomial by N (the total frequency),

in order to obtain the expected frequency in each category.

Let us consider an illustration for fitting a binomial distribution.

Illustration 4

Eight coins are tossed at a time 256 times. Number of heads observed at each

throw is recorded and the results are given below. Find the expected

frequencies. What are the theoretical values of mean and standard deviation?

Also calculate the mean and standard deviation of the observed frequencies
If we compare the above expected frequencies with the observed frequencies,

given in the illustration, we find that the two frequencies are in close agreement.

This provides the basis to conclude that the observed distribution will fits the

expected distribution.

The mean of the above distribution is:

µ = np = 8×1/2 =4

√
8∗1
∗1
The Standard Deviation is (σ) = √ npq = 2
=√ 2=1.414
2

If we compute the mean and standard deviation of the observed frequencies, we

will obtain the following values

X = 4.062; S.D. = 1.462.

Practice Questions:

 Determine the following by using binomial probability formula.

a) If n = 4 and P = 0.12, then what is P (0) ?

b) If n = 10 and P = 0.40, then what is p (9) ?

c) If n = 6 and P = 0.83, then what is P (5)?

 The following data shows the result of the experiment of throwing 5 coins at

a time 3,100 times and the number of heads appearing in each throw. Find
the expected frequencies and comment on the results. Also calculate mean

and standard deviation of the theoretical values.

No. of heads: 0 1 2 3 4 5

frequency: 32 225 710 1,085 820 228

TEXT BOOKS

 T1 = H. K Dass, Higher Engineering Mathematics, S. Chand Publishers,3rd revised

edition.2014.

 T2 = B.S. Grewal, Higher Engineering Mathematics, Khanna Publishers,42th

ed.2013, New Delhi.

 T3= N. P. Bali and Manish Goyal, A textbook of engineering Mathematics, Laxmi

Publications, Reprint 2008.

REFERENCE BOOKS

 R1=R. K. Jain and S. R. K. Lyenger, Advanced Engineering Mathematics ,3rd Edition

Narosa Publishing House ,2004,New Delhi.

 R2 =B. V. Ramana Advanced Engineering Mathematics, McGrawHill, July2006, New

Delhi.

 S.P.Gupta,StatisticalMethods,S.Chand&Sons,2017,NewDelhi,ISBN9789351610281In

siders’Guide

Video Lecture :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c06FZ2Yq9rk