PBA4804 JANUARY/FEBRUARY

OCTOBER/NOVEMBER2021
October/November 2023
2020

DECISION SUPPORTING SYSTEM FOR MANAGERS

Duration: 4 Hours
EXAMINERS
FIRST EXAMINER: MR O NCUBE
SECOND EXAMINER: DRPROF P VENTER
E MUDIMU
EXTERNAL EXAMINER: DRMR
TBCCF SINGH
DARIKWA

THIS IS A NON-VENUE BASED INDIVIDUAL EXAMINATION

THIS EXAMINATION PAPER CONSISTS OF 11 PAGES

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATE
• This examination will take place on 08 November 2023 from 09:00 to 13:00.
• Please note that the onus rests on you to ensure that your answer script uploaded onto
Moodle is the final and correct version. No amendments to submissions will be accepted
after the closing time.
• No late submissions will be accepted, and late submissions will be awarded a zero mark.
• Please number your answers correctly.
• The uploaded answer script must have a cover page (provided). Please ensure that the
module code, your registered name, identity number and student number appear on the
cover page.
• The answer script must have the signed honesty declaration form (provided). Please ensure
that you read, understand and sign the form.
• Answer each section/question of the examination on a new page (indicating the
section/question and the module code on the page).
• The answer script must be in PDF format only and the following naming convention of the
final file must be used when submitting the document on Moodle: STUDENT
NUMBER_PBA4804
• It is your responsibility to ensure that the submitted document is not password protected and
the file submitted is not corrupted. If the marker is unable to access or open the submission
document, you will be awarded a zero mark for the examination.

[TURN OVER]
 PBA4804
OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

Graduate School of Business Leadership

Examination Declaration Form
▪ This declaration form must be personally completed by the candidate only.
▪ This form declares that the candidate commits to the University’s assessment policies and procedures applicable to this examination.
▪ Any candidate who fails to submit the declaration form will be deemed to not agree with the University’s assessment policies and as such
will not participate in the assessment.
▪ The hand-completed form must be uploaded on the Moodle along with your examination.

CANDIDATE SURNAME

CANDIDATE FULL NAMES

ID/PASSPORT NUMBER

STUDENT NUMBER

MODULE CODE

MODULE NAME

CONTACT DETAILS

DECLARATION
• I declare that all the details provided by me on this form are true and correct.
• I am aware that the assessment date and time for PBA4804 is the 8th of November 2023 from 09:00 to 13:00.
• I undertake to comply with all the rules, regulations and policies of the University pertaining to this assessment.
• I agree that it is my responsibility to ensure that I have internet access to enable me to access Moodle platform
during the assessment period (Oct/Nov 2023).
• I agree that it is my responsibility to personally download and/or print and/or access the question paper provided
to me via the Moodle and to upload my answer sheets to the Moodle and that any late submission will not be
marked and graded at 0%.
• I am aware that my completed assessment must only be submitted via Moodle.
• I am aware that the assessment will be conducted in the medium of English only.
• By submitting the PBA4804 assessment on the 8th of November 2023, I declare that:
• I have read the Unisa’s Students’ Disciplinary Code, available at:
https://www.unisa.ac.za/static/corporate_web/Content/Apply%20for%20admission/Documents/Unisa-Students-
Disciplinary-Code-25-April-2014.pdf
• I have read the Policy for Copyright Infringement and Plagiarism, available at:
https://www.unisa.ac.za/static/corporate_web/Content/Colleges/CGS/documents/copyrightinfringement_and_pla
giarism_policy_16nov05.pdf
• I know what plagiarism is, that plagiarism is wrong and that disciplinary steps can be taken against me if I am
found guilty of plagiarism;
• The PBA4804 Exam that I submitted is my own work and I have not received assistance and/or given
assistance from/to any person in completing this assessment;
• I have independently and individually completed the assessment without copying work from any other person/s
• I have not allowed any other student to copy my work;
• I know that if I am found to be in violation of this declaration, I will receive 0% for this assessment and that
Unisa may investigate further and institute disciplinary action against me.

CANDIDATE
SIGNATURE

DATE

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

EXAMINATION COVER PAGE

PBA4804
OCT/NOV 2023

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGERS

STUDENT NUMBER

FULL NAME

IDENTITY NUMBER

Marks
Question Marks Examiners Moderator
No Allocated
1 2 3

1 25

2 30

3 15

4 20

5 10

Total 100

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS:

QUESTION 1 [25 MARKS]

Zales Jeweller uses rubies and sapphires to produce two types of rings. A type 1 ring requires two
rubies, three sapphires and one hour of jeweller’s labour time. A type 2 ring requires three rubies,
two sapphires and two hours of jeweller’s labour time. Each type 1 ring sells for R1 200 and each
type 2 ring sells for R1 500. All rings produced by Zales can be sold. At present, Zales has 100
rubies, 120 sapphires and 70 hours of jeweller’s labour time. Extra rubies can be bought at R300
per ruby. Market demand requires at least 20 type 1 rings and 24 type 2 rings.

The linear programming (LP) model representing this problem is formulated as follows:

Max PROFIT = 1 200 RING1 + 1 500 RING2 – 300 RUBY

subject to
(RUBIES) 2 RING1 + 3 RING2 – RUBY  100
(SAPPHIRE) 3 RING1 + 2 RING2  120
(LABOUR) RING1 + 2 RING2  70
(DEM1) RING1  20
(DEM2) RING2  24

and all variables  0

where the decision variables used are defined as follows:

o RING1 = the number of rings of type 1 to make;

o RING2 = the number of rings of type 2 to make;
o RUBY = the number of extra rubies to buy.

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION
The LP model is solved using SOLVER and the ANSWER (Figure 1) and SENSITIVITY (Figure 2)
Reports are provided below:

Microsoft Excel 16.0 Answer Report

Objective Cell (Max)

Original
Cell Name Value Final Value
$I$13 PROFIT RING 1 0 57600

Variable Cells
Original
Cell Name Value Final Value Integer
$I$6 VALUES RING 1 0 22 Contin
$J$6 VALUES RING 2 0 24 Contin
$K$6 VALUES RUBY 0 16 Contin

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
Not
$I$10 MARKET CONDITION RING 1 22 $I$10>=$B$10 Binding 2
$J$10 MARKET CONDITION RING 2 24 $J$10>=$C$10 Binding 0
$L$7 RUBIES UTILISATION 100 $L$7<=$E$7 Binding 0
Not
$L$8 SAPHIRES UTILISATION 114 $L$8<=$E$8 Binding 6
$L$9 LABOUR UTILISATION 70 $L$9<=$E$9 Binding 0

Figure 1: ANSWER Report

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Microsoft Excel 16.0 Sensitivity Report
Worksheet: [qQuestion 1.xlsx]Sheet1
Report Created: 2023/09/28 13:17:05

Variable Cells
Final Reduced Objective Allowable Allowable
Cell Name Value Cost Coefficient Increase Decrease
$I$6 VALUES RING 1 22 0 1200 1E+30 300
$J$6 VALUES RING 2 24 0 1500 600 1E+30
$K$6 VALUES RUBY 16 0 -300 300 300

Constraints
Final Shadow Constraint Allowable Allowable
Cell Name Value Price R.H. Side Increase Decrease
$I$10 MARKET CONDITION RING 1 22 0 20 2 1E+30
$J$10 MARKET CONDITION RING 2 24 -600 24 1 1,5
$L$7 RUBIES UTILISATION 100 300 100 16 1E+30
$L$8 SAPHIRES UTILISATION 114 0 120 1E+30 6
$L$9 LABOUR UTILISATION 70 600 70 2 2

Figure 2: SENSITIVITY Report

Answer the following questions by using only the ANSWER and SENSITIVITY reports provided.
(This means that you may not change the values of the relevant parameters in the model and do
reruns with SOLVER.) Explain how you arrive at your answers.

(a) Write down the optimal solution. (5)

(b) Suppose that instead of R300, each ruby costs R750. Will Zales still buy extra rubies? If
so, will the production plan and profit change?
(3)
(c) Suppose that Zales was required to produce at least 23 type 2 rings. What would Zales’
profit now be?
(5)

(d) What is the most that Zales will be willing to pay for another hour of jeweller’s labour time?
How many hours may be obtained at this price?
(3)

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION
(e) What is the most Zales will be willing to pay for another sapphire?
(3)
(f) Zales discovers another 20 rubies in his safe. How will the availability of these extra rubies
change his production plan and profit?
(3)
(g) The market demand changes and Zales must now produce at least 22 type 1 rings and at
least 23 type 2 rings. How will this change his production plan and profit?

(3)

QUESTION 2 [30 MARKS]

Use this case to answer the questions that follow:

Kgomotso Maelane owns and operates a restaurant located in one of the busiest resort
communities in the province of Mpumalanga in South Africa. Her restaurant has just completed its
third year of operation. During this time, Kgomotso sought to establish a reputation for the
restaurant as a high quality-dining establishment that specialises in game and traditional foods.
The efforts made by Kgomotso and her staff have proved to be successful, and the restaurant is
currently one of the best and fastest-growing restaurant in Mpumalanga province.

Kgomotso concluded that, to plan better for the further growth of the restaurant in the future, she
needs to develop a system that will enable her to be able to forecast food and beverage sales by
month for up to one year in advance. Kgomotso compiled data on total food and beverages sales
for the three years of operation as shown in Table 1.

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Table 1: Food and beverage sales for the restaurant (R1000s)

Month First year Second year Third year
January 242 263 282
February 235 238 255
March 232 247 265
April 178 193 205
May 184 193 210
June 140 149 160
July 145 157 166
August 152 161 174
September 110 122 126
October 130 130 148
November 152 167 173
December 206 230 235

As a decision support systems analyst, you have been requested by Kgomotso to assist in
performing an analysis of the sales data for her restaurant. You are expected to prepare a report
for Kgomotso that summarizes the findings of your analysis, provide forecasts, and make
recommendations. In particular, your report should include answers to the following questions:

(a) A graph of the time series.

(5)

(b) Using linear regression determine the seasonal index for each month, and critically
discuss the intuitive implications of these seasonal indices.
(10)

(c) Stating any assumptions you may make, provide forecast sales for January through
December of the fourth year.
(10)

(d) Based on your analysis in part (b) and part (c) make recommendations as to when the
system that you developed should be updated to account for new sales data that will
occur.
(5)

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

QUESTION 3 [15 MARKS]

Within the context of scenario planning, using your organisation as a suitable case, write brief
notes about the following:

(a) defining scope or context, (3)

(b) database construction, (3)

(c) scenario building, (4)

(d) choosing strategic options. (5)

In making your brief comments, you may utilise the following articles:

• Phelps, R., Chan, C., Kapsalis, S.C., 2001. Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory
studies. Journal of Business Research, Vol 51, 223-232.
• Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., van der Heijden, K. 2005. The origins and evolution of scenario
techniques in long range business planning. Futures, Vol 37, 795 - 812

QUESTION 4 [20 MARKS]

A decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of nature develops the
following profit payoff table.

DECISION STATES OF NATURE

ALTERNATIVE
S_1 S_2 S_3 S_4

D_1 14 9 10 5

D_2 11 10 8 7

D_3 9 10 10 11

D_4 8 10 11 13

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

(a) State and use the average payoff strategy to choose the best decision. (3)

(b) State and use the aggressive strategy to choose the best decision. (3)

(c) State and use the conservative strategy to choose the best decision. (3)

(d) State and use the opportunity loss strategy to make the best decision. (5)

(e) Suppose the decision maker obtains information that enables the following probabilities
assessments: P(s_1) = 0.5; P(s_2) = 0.2; P(s_3) = 0.2; and P(s_4) = 0.1. Use the
expected value approach to determine the optimal strategy.
(6)

QUESTION 5 [10 MARKS]

As a quality analyst, given the information in Table 2, determine, utilising Annexure 1, which of
these three processes are capable:

Table 2: Process Quality Information

Standard Lower Upper

Process Mean
Deviation Specification Specification

1 6.0 0.14 5.5 6.7

2 7.5 0.10 7.0 8.0

3 4.6 0.12 4.3 4.9

Total Marks = 100

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OCT/NOV 2023 EXAMINATION

ANNEXURE-A:

Table A1: Control Chart parameters

Number of Observations in Factor for X Chart FACTORS FOR R CHARTS FACTORS FOR R CHARTS
Subgroup
A2 Lower Control Limit Upper Control Limit
N
D3 D4

2 1.88 0 3.27

3 1.02 0 2.57

4 0.73 0 2.28

5 0.58 0 2.11

6 0.48 0 2.00

7 0.42 0.08 1.92

8 0.37 0.14 1.86

9 0.34 0.18 1.82

10 0.31 0.22 1.78

11 0.29 0.26 1.74

12 0.27 0.28 1.72

13 0.25 0.31 1.69

14 0.24 0.33 1.67

15 0.22 0.35 1.65

16 0.21 0.36 1.64

17 0.20 0.38 1.62

18 0.19 0.39 1.61

19 0.19 0.40 1.60

20 0.18 0.41 1.59

©
UNISA 2023

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