Course of Flood risk
Part 2 – River hydraulics for flood risk evaluation
CERM Program at Polo Regionale di Lecco
Dr. Alessio Radice
Flooding 2
1
Flooding 3
Processes 4
2
Processes 5
Process chain 6
Phenomena
Triggers Rainfall - runoff
Rainfall transformation
Risk
Glacier melting
… River flow
Flood wave propagation
Inundation
3
Process chain 7
Phenomena
Triggers Rainfall - runoff
Rainfall transformation
Risk
Glacier melting
… River flow
Flood wave propagation
Inundation
Boundary and Initial
Conditions
Modelling
Landscape protection
Emergency management
River Hydraulics 8
Phenomena
Triggers Rainfall - runoff
Rainfall transformation
Risk
Glacier melting
… River flow
Flood wave propagation
Inundation
Boundary and Initial
Conditions
Modelling
Landscape protection
Emergency management
4
What is risk, and what do we need 9
for its evaluation?
Risk is often represented as resulting from a combination of different contributions:
(Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure)
Hazard is related with natural agents
Vulnerability is a measure of the extent of damage
Exposure is a measure of importance of objects
In a probabilistic approach: H = 1-P(Q*)
Vulnerability and Exposure range from 0 to 1
Simplified approach: R = H × V × E
More in general: R = f(H, V, E)
Alternative approach: R = damage associated with a certain scenario
Strategies/requirements 10
5
Strategies/requirements 11
Hydrographic basin upstream
Reach under consideration
Strategies/requirements 12
Let us choose, for example:
H = 1-P(Q*)
Q* = ?
6
Strategies/requirements 13
Let us choose, for example:
H = 1-P(Q*)
Q* = ?
P
P2
P1
Q
Q*1 Q*2
Strategies/requirements 14
Let us choose, for example:
H = 1-P(Q*)
Q* = ?
Is that leading to incipient inundation
water elevation = bank elevation
bank
bed
water
1-D model, steady/unsteady
7
Strategies/requirements 15
Is this place safe for a given Q?
Strategies/requirements 16
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
8
Strategies/requirements 17
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
1D model, steady/unsteady
Strategies/requirements 18
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
9
Strategies/requirements 19
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
Strategies/requirements 20
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
10
Strategies/requirements 21
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
Strategies/requirements 22
Is this place safe for a given Q?
It depends on its possibility to be reached
by water inundating the floodplain with
appreciable depth and/or velocity
2D model, steady/unsteady
11
Strategies/requirements 23
Can we consider the bed as fixed?
If not, transport of sediments may induce
aggradation (that is, increase in the bed
elevation) water levels larger than
those for fixed bed and same discharge
Sediment transport modelling needed
Semi-course topics 24
1-D flow, theory
1-D flow modelling, steady
1-D flow modelling, unsteady
2-D flow modelling
Sediment transport
Risk analysis
12
Semi-course topics 25
Gradually varied flow
1-D flow, theory
Spatially varied flow
1-D flow modelling, steady
Non-linear flows
1-D flow modelling, unsteady M1
M2 d0
2-D flow modelling M3 dc
bed
Sediment transport Qin
Q
Risk analysis
Qout
Semi-course topics 26
Geometric description
1-D flow, theory
Physical parameterization
1-D flow modelling, steady
Boundary conditions
1-D flow modelling, unsteady Head losses
2-D flow modelling Compound sections
Sediment transport
Discharge
164
163
162.1
(known)
161.1
160.1
159
Risk analysis 158
157
156.1
155.1
154
13
Semi-course topics 27
Some refresh of what seen during course
of Numerical Methods
1-D flow, theory
Flood propagation
1-D flow modelling, steady
1-D flow modelling, unsteady
2-D flow modelling
Sediment transport
Risk analysis
Semi-course topics 28
Theory, basic equations
1-D flow, theory
Geometry definition
1-D flow modelling, steady
Parameterization
1-D flow modelling, unsteady
2-D flow modelling
Sediment transport
Risk analysis
14
Semi-course topics 29
Sediment properties
1-D flow, theory
Transport modes (bed load, suspension)
1-D flow modelling, steady
Incipient motion and transport capacity
1-D flow modelling, unsteady Morphologic evolution of riverbeds
2-D flow modelling
Sediment transport
Risk analysis
Semi-course topics 30
From hazard to risk
1-D flow, theory
Damage estimation
1-D flow modelling, steady
Territorial planning and river management
1-D flow modelling, unsteady
2-D flow modelling
Sediment transport
Risk analysis
15
Application classes 31
A single case-study will be considered
during all the classes, using the modelling
approaches learnt during theoretical
lectures
Application classes 32
A single case-study will be considered
during all the classes, using the modelling
approaches learnt during theoretical
lectures
1-D modelling:
2-D modelling:
16
Outline of the semi-course 33
Program/1 34
17
Program/2 35
Material 36
CHANSON, H. (2004). "The Hydraulics of Open Channel Flows: An Introduction."
Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, UK, 2nd Edition (ISBN 0 7506 5978 5).
JAIN, S.C. (2001). “Open-Channel Flow.” John Wiley & Sons.
US Army Corp of Engineers, "HEC RAS – Hydraulic Reference Manual",
(www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/hecras-hecras.html)
River2D manual (http://www.river2d.ualberta.ca/)
Slides of lectures and additional material on the BeeP
18
Exam and contacts 37
• Exam is typically the day after the official date to avoid overlap with written test of
“Hydrology for Flood Risk Evaluation”
• Three parts: (1) written sketch of a profile, (2)-(3) questions on theory and discussion on
analysis of the case-study for those who have successfully sketched the profile.
• Slides with analysis of the case-study should be submitted for preliminary evaluation at
least 7 days before the examination date. Then slides will be discussed at the exam.
• Final score of Flood Risk will be obtained averaging scores for “Hydrology for Flood Risk
Evaluation” and “River Hydraulics for Flood Risk Evaluation”
• Contact: Alessio Radice - phone 6251 (Milan) or 8736 (Lecco) - [email protected]
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