Solargis Database Description and Accuracy
Solargis Database Description and Accuracy
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Solargis s.r.o.
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Slovak Republic
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Email: [email protected]
URL: http://solargis.com
SOLAR M
Solargis: Data description and accuracy
solargis.com
1 TABLE OF CONTENTS
2 ACRONYMS
AERONET The AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) is a ground-based remote sensing network dedicated to
measure atmospheric aerosol properties. It provides a long-term database of aerosol optical,
microphysical and radiative parameters.
AOD Aerosol Optical Depth at 670 nm. This is one of atmospheric parameters derived from MACC
database and used in Solargis. It has important impact on accuracy of solar calculations in arid
zones.
CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. The meteorological model operated by the US service NOAA.
CPV Concentrated PhotoVoltaic systems, which uses optics such as lenses or curved mirrors to
concentrate a large amount of sunlight onto a small area of photovoltaic cells to generate electricity.
DIF Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance, if
solar power values are discussed.
DNI Direct Normal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Direct Normal Irradiance, if solar
power values are discussed.
GFS Global Forecast System. The meteorological model operated by the US service NOAA.
GHI Global Horizontal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Global Horizontal Irradiance, if
solar power values are discussed.
GTI Global Tilted (in-plane) Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Global Tilted Irradiance, if
solar power values are discussed.
MACC Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – meteorological model operated by the European
service ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
Meteosat MFG Meteosat satellite operated by EUMETSAT organization. MFG: Meteosat First Generation.
Meteosat MSG Meteosat satellite operated by EUMETSAT organization. MSG: Meteosat Second Generation.
PVOUT Photovoltaic electricity output, often presented as percentage of installed DC power of the
photovoltaic modules. This unit is calculated as a ratio between output power of the PV system and
the cumulative nominal power at the label of the PV modules (Power at Standard Test Conditions).
3 GLOSSARY
Aerosols Small solid or liquid particles suspended in air, for example clouds, haze, and air pollution such
as smog or smoke.
All-sky irradiance The amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is mainly determined by Earth-Sun
geometry (the position of a point on the Earth's surface relative to the Sun which is determined
by latitude, the time of year and the time of day) and the atmospheric conditions (the level of
cloud cover and the optical transparency of atmosphere). All-sky irradiance is computed with
all factors taken into account
Bias values will be positive when satellite modelled values are overestimating and negative
when underestimating (in comparison to ground measurements).
𝑘
𝐵𝑖𝑎𝑠 = 𝑋 𝑘 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑑 − 𝑋𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑
Clear-sky irradiance The clear sky irradiance is calculated similarly to all-sky irradiance but without taking into
account the impact of cloud cover.
Frequency of data (15 Period of aggregation of solar data that can be obtained from the Solargis database.
minute, hourly, daily,
monthly, yearly)
Long-term average Average value of selected parameter (GHI, DNI, etc.) based on multiyear historical time series.
Long-term averages provide a basic overview of solar resource availability and its seasonal
variability.
Root Mean Square Deviation Represents spread of deviations given by random discrepancies between measured and
(RMSD) modelled data and is calculated according to this formula:
On the modelling side, this could be low accuracy of cloud estimate (e.g. intermediate clouds),
under/over estimation of atmospheric input data, terrain, microclimate and other effects, which
are not captured by the model. Part of this discrepancy is natural - as satellite monitors large
area (of approx. 3 x 4 km), while sensor sees only micro area of approx. 1 sq. centimetre. On
the measurement side, the discrepancy may be determined by accuracy/quality and errors of
the instrument, pollution of the detector, misalignment, data loggers, insufficient quality
control, etc.
Site adaptation Application of accuracy-enhancement methods that are capable to adapt satellite-derived DNI
and GHI datasets (and derived parameters) to the local climate conditions that cannot be
recorded in the original satellite and atmospheric inputs. The data adaptation is important
especially when specific situations such as extreme irradiance events are important to be
correctly represented in the enhanced dataset. However, the methods have to be used carefully,
as inappropriate use for non-systematic deviations or use of less accurate ground data leads to
accuracy degradation of the primary satellite-derived dataset.
Solar irradiance Solar power (instantaneous energy) falling on a unit area per unit time [W/m2]. Solar resource
or solar radiation is used when considering both irradiance and irradiation.
Solar irradiation Amount of solar energy falling on a unit area over a stated time interval [Wh/m2 or kWh/m2].
Solar radiation The term embraces both solar irradiance and solar irradiation terms. Solar radiation, selectively
attenuated by the atmosphere, which is not reflected or scattered and reaches the surface
directly, is beam (direct) radiation. The scattered radiation that reaches the ground is diffuse
radiation. The small part of radiation that is reflected from the ground onto the inclined
receiver is reflected radiation. These three components of radiation together create global
radiation.
Spatial grid resolution In digital cartography the term applies to the minimum size of the grid cell or in the other words
minimal size of the pixels in the digital map
Uncertainty Is a parameter characterizing the possible dispersion of the values attributed to an estimated
irradiance/irradiation values. The best estimate or median value is also called P50 value. For
annual and monthly solar irradiation summaries it is close to average, since multiyear
distribution of solar radiation resembles closely normal distribution.
For instance, the range of uncertainty may assume 80% probability of occurrence of values, so
the lower boundary (negative value) of uncertainty represents 90% probability of exceedance,
and it is also used for calculating the P90 value (normal distribution is assumed). Similarly,
other confidence intervals can be considered (P75, P95, P99 values, etc.)
Water vapour Water in the gaseous state. Atmospheric water vapour is the absolute amount of water
dissolved in air.
4 INTRODUCTION
The quality of solar resource data is critical for economic and technical assessment of solar power plants.
Understanding uncertainty and managing weather-related risk is essential for successful planning and operating
of solar electricity assets. High quality solar resource and meteorological data are available today, and they can
be obtained by two approaches:
By diligent operation of high-accuracy solar instruments installed at a meteorological station. Well-
maintained solar instruments offer higher accuracy and high-frequency data for a given site. Typically
such data is available only for limited period of time, form few months to few years. The number of high-
quality solar measuring stations, deployed worldwide is relatively limited.
By complex solar meteorological models that read satellite, atmospheric and meteorological data on the
input. Such models are typically less accurate, compared to the good quality measurements. But their
advantage is continuous geographical coverage and ability to serve data for any location with a
continuous history of 10 to more than 20 recent years. Advantage of the models is their ability to serve
data in real time for monitoring and forecasting. To achieve high reliability and low uncertainty the
models are calibrated and validated using high quality ground measurements.
Solargis represents a modelling approach, based on the use of modern and verified solar algorithms. The model
offers long and continuous history and systematic update of primary solar resource parameters (GHI and DNI) as
well as all derived parameters and data products needed by solar energy industry.
Technically, good solar resource data should meet the following criteria:
Computation should be based on scientifically proven methods
Outputs should be systematically validated and traceable
Data should represent at minimum 10 years of harmonized history, optimally 20 or more
Data should be available fast and for any location
Outputs should include information about solar resource uncertainty
Data should be supported by an analytical technical report with metadata
Service should be supported by dedicated professional team of experts
Solargis database is designed to help effective development of solar energy strategies and projects at all stages
of their lifetime, i.e. for:
Prospection: strategical planning, site identification, and prefeasibility of projects
Evaluation: technical design, financial and technical due diligence
Monitoring: systematic site evaluation, performance assessment and asset management
Forecasting: for optimised management of power production, balancing, and energy trade
Solargis is a product of more than 16 years of development. The database first developed for Europe has been
step-wise extended to cover all land territories between latitudes 60N and 55S. Solargis is a unique database,
incorporating a number of innovative features:
High quality and reliability, systematically monitored
High-resolution (temporal and spatial), geographically stable
Harmonized combination of solar, meteorological and geographical data
Computed by the best available methods and input data sources, continuously improved
The data represent a long history updated in near-real time
The models are extensively validated by Solargis and by external organizations.
Solar resource availability determines how much electricity will be generated and in what time. Analysis of the
solar radiation components makes it possible to understand the performance of solar power plants (Tab. 1). While
solar irradiance refers to solar power (instantaneous energy) falling on a unit area per unit time [W/m 2], solar
irradiation is the amount of solar energy falling on a unit area over a stated time interval [Wh/m2 or kWh/m2].
Solargis offers solar irradiation and irradiance, depending on a data product.
Global Horizontal Irradiance GHI Sum of diffuse and direct components and it is considered as a
(Irradiation) climate reference as it enables comparing individual sites or
regions
Direct Normal Irradiance DNI Component that directly reaches the surface, and is relevant for
(Irradiation) concentrating solar thermal power plants (CSP) and photovoltaic
concentrating technologies (CPV) W/m2
(Wh/m2
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance DIF Part of the irradiation that is scattered by the atmosphere. Higher or
(Irradiation) values of DIF/GHI ratio represent higher occurrence of clouds, kWh/m2)
higher atmospheric pollution or higher water vapour
Global Tilted Irradiance GTI Sum of direct and diffuse solar radiation falling on a tilted surface.
(Irradiation) Unlike the horizontal surface, the tilted surface also receives small
amount of ground-reflected radiation. It determines performance
characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) technology.
Solargis database is organised in grid (raster) data layers. Tab. 2 shows technical features Solargis solar resource
data. Temporal coverage varies by region and depends on the history and features of each particular satellite
mission. Presently we have been processing data from three satellite data providers with geostationary satellites
operating at five key positions, to cover entire world (except polar regions). Please see Chapter 5.2 for the
calculation scheme.
Parameters Description
Spatial coverage Land surface and coastal sea between latitudes 60°N to 50°S
Time representation Since 1994/1999/2006 depending on the satellite data coverage
Spatial (grid) resolution Primary data resolution 3 to 6 km (depending on the latitude)
Enhanced resolution by downscaling up to ~250 m (~90 m) in some regions
Temporal resolution (time step) Original 10/15/30 minutes depending on the satellite region
Aggregated into hourly, daily, monthly and yearly data products
Since 1994 Since 1999 Since 2006 Mixed, depending on the site position
Fig. 1: Historical data availability
Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 show geographic distribution of long-term yearly sums of solar radiation worldwide. The maps
show aggregated values of Solargis historical database.
The solar radiation retrieval in Solargis is basically split into three steps. First, the clear-sky irradiance (the
irradiance reaching ground with assumption of absence of clouds) is calculated using the clear-sky model.
Second, the satellite data are used to quantify the attenuation effect of clouds by means of cloud index
calculation. Then the clear-sky irradiance is coupled with cloud index to retrieve all-sky irradiance. All this process
is represented in Fig. 4.
The outcome of the procedure is direct normal and global horizontal irradiance, which is used for computing
diffuse and global tilted irradiance. The data from satellite models are usually further post-processed to get
irradiance that fits the needs of specific applications (such as irradiance on tilted or tracking surfaces) and/or
irradiance corrected for shading effects from surrounding terrain or objects.
Other models:
DIF, transposition, terrain
All-sky irradiance
Clear-sky model SOLIS calculates clear-sky irradiance from a set of input parameters. Sun position is a
deterministic parameter, and it is described by algorithms with good accuracy. Three constituents determine
geographical and temporal variability of clear-sky atmospheric conditions:
Aerosols are represented by Atmospheric Optical Depth (AOD), which is derived from the global MACC-
II database. The model uses daily variability of aerosols to simulate more precisely the instantaneous
estimates of DNI and GHI. Use of daily values reduces uncertainty, especially in regions with variable and
high atmospheric load of aerosols.
Water vapour is also highly variable, but compared to aerosols, it has lower impact on magnitude of DNI
and GHI change. The daily data are derived from CFSR and GFS databases for the whole historical period
up to the present time.
Ozone has negligible influence on broadband solar radiation and in the model it is considered as a
constant value.
Cloud model estimates cloud attenuation on global irradiance. Data from meteorological geostationary satellites
are used to calculate a cloud index that relates radiance of the Earth’s surface, recorded by the satellite in several
spectral channels with the cloud optical transmittance. A number of improvements are introduced to better cope
with complex identification of albedo in tropical variable cloudiness, complex terrain, at presence of snow and ice,
etc. Other support data are also used in the model, e.g. altitude and air temperature.
To calculate Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) for all atmospheric and cloud conditions, the clear-sky global
horizontal irradiance is coupled with cloud index.
From GHI, other solar irradiance components (direct, diffuse and reflected) are calculated. Direct Normal
Irradiance (DNI) is calculated by modified Dirindex model. Diffuse horizontal irradiance is derived from GHI and
DNI.
Calculation of Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) from GHI deals with direct and diffuse components separately. While
calculation of direct component is straightforward, estimation of diffuse irradiance for a tilted surface is more
complex, and affected by limited information about shading effects and albedo of nearby objects. For converting
diffuse horizontal irradiance for a tilted surface, the Perez transposition model is used. Reflected component is
also approximated considering that knowledge of local conditions is limited.
Model for simulation of terrain effects (elevation and shading) based on high resolution altitude and horizon data.
Model by Ruiz Arias is used to achieve enhanced spatial representation – from the resolution of satellite (3 to 4
km) to the resolution of digital terrain model.
A description of model inputs can be found in Tab. 3. Considering the shading from terrain, the spatial resolution
of data products is enhanced up to 3 arc-seconds (which is about 90 metres at the equator, less towards the
poles). Typically, SRTM3 elevation data is used for this operation. Final data can be recalculated to any other
spatial resolution.
Primary time step of solar resource parameters is 15 minutes for MSG satellite, 30-minutes for MFG and MTSAT
satellite, 30-minutes for GOES satellite and up to 10-minute for Himawari satellite. Atmospheric parameters
(aerosols and water vapour) represent daily data.
Meteosat
Europe, Africa, and 1994 to 2004 30 minutes
MFG
parts of Middle
Meteosat East and Brazil 2005 to present 15 minutes
MSG EUMETSAT
South Asia, Central
Meteosat
Asia, and parts of 1999 to present 30 minutes
IODC
East Asia 3 to 4 km
Cloud index
GOES EAST
North America and
NOAA 1999 to present 30 minutes
South America
GOES WEST
Altitude and 90
SRTM3 SRTM - -
horizon metres
Spatial resolution of Meteosat, GOES, and MTSAT data considered in the calculation scheme is approximately
3 km at sub-satellite point (more details in Tab. 4). Model outputs are resampled to 2 arc-minutes (app. 4x4 km)
regular grid in WGS84 geographical coordinate system.
Satellite-data secure very high temporal coverage (more than 99% in most of regions). Data for very low sun angles
are derived by extrapolation of clear-sky index. The supplied time-series data have all the gaps filled using
intelligent algorithms.
Tab. 4: Approximate pixel size for different regions covered by satellites for the cloud index calculation
6 ACCURACY OF SOLARGIS
After calculating model statistics by comparing Solargis with good quality ground measurements at more than
200 sites across all type of climates the following has been observed (see Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 for map representation
and complete list of sites in Annex):
Bias for 80% of the sites is within ±3.1% for GHI and ±6.8% for DNI
Bias for 90% of the sites is within ±4.6% for GHI and ±9.0% for DNI
Bias for 98% of the sites is within ±7.1% for GHI and ±11.8% for DNI
An analysis on the distribution of the bias across different geographies and situations lead us to the following
conclusions (summary in Tab. 5):
In most situations the expected bias for annual values will be within ±4% for GHI values and ±8% for DNI
values:
o Most of Europe and North America (approx. below 50°) and Japan.
o Mediterranean region, Arabian Peninsula (except the Gulf region) and Morocco.
o South Africa, Chile, Brazil, Australia
o Regions with good availability of high-quality ground measurements
Situations where the expected bias can be as high as ±8% for GHI values and ±12% for DNI values:
o High latitudes (approx. above 50°)
o Countries in humid tropical climate (e.g. equatorial regions of Africa, America and Pacific,
Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia) and coastal zones (approx. up to 15 km from water)
o Regions with high and dynamically changing concentrations of atmospheric aerosols (Northern
India, West Africa, Gulf region, some regions in China)
o High mountains regions with regular snow and ice coverage and high-reflectance deserts
o Regions with limited or no availability of high-quality ground measurements.
Based on the validation of Solargis data, a location specific uncertainty estimate can be derived on a case-by-case
basis by looking at the model performance after analysing the local climatic and geographic features.
-
Number of validation sites 208 143
Fig. 5: Bias for yearly GHI values at validation sites (only public sites, values in percent)
Fig. 6: Bias for yearly DNI values at validation sites (only public sites, values in percent)
The performance of satellite-based models for a given site is characterized by the following indicators, which are
calculated for each site for which comparisons with good quality ground measurements are available:
Bias or Mean Bias Deviation (MBD) characterizes systematic model deviation at a given site, i.e.
systematic over- or underestimation. Bias values will be above zero when satellite modelled values are
overestimating and below zero when underestimating (in comparison to ground measurements).
Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) are used for indicating the
spread of error for instantaneous values. RMSD indicates discrepancies between short-term modelled
values (sub-hourly, hourly, daily, monthly) and ground measurements.
Typically, bias is considered as the first indicator of the model accuracy, however the interpretation of the model
accuracy should be done analysing all measures. While knowing bias helps to understand a possible error of the
long-term estimate, MAD and RMSD are important for estimating the accuracy of energy simulation and
operational calculations (monitoring, forecasting). Usually validation statistics are normalized and expressed in
percentage.
Other indicators can be calculated as well, like Kolmogorov-Smirnoff Index (KSI), which characterizes
representativeness of distribution of values. It may indicate issues in the model’s ability to represent various solar
radiation conditions. KSI is important for accurate CSP modelling, as the response of these systems is non-linear
to irradiance levels. Even if bias of different satellite-based models is similar, other accuracy characteristics
(RMSD, MAD and KSI) may indicate substantial differences in their performance.
Even though distribution of validation sites is irregular, a stable and predictable performance of Solargis is
observed across various climate regions. The results of the comparison are summarized in the following table
and figures. A complete list with the publicly available validation sites and statistics can be found in the annex.
For a practical use, the statistical measures of accuracy had to be converted into uncertainty, which better
characterizes probabilistic nature of a possible error of the model estimate.
One way of evaluating the uncertainty is to apply confidence intervals for estimating its probabilistic nature. When
assuming normal distribution, statistically one standard deviation characterizes 68% probability of occurrence.
From the standard deviation, other confidence intervals can be constructed (Tab. 6).
From confidence intervals we can calculate different probability scenarios as represented in Tab. 7. The P50 value
will be the most expected value (center of the probability density curve), from which various levels of confidence
can be expressed. For instance, in solar resource assessment the P90 value has become a standard and it
represents a number that would be exceeded in 90% of the cases.
Tab. 7: Expected values at various probability scenarios assuming normal distribution of values.
7 COMBINED UNCERTAINTY
For understanding the model performance key indicators, it is important to consider the several factors that
influence the accuracy of the values, provided both by satellite-based modelling and on-site ground sensors.
On the modelling side, accuracy will be determined by cloud estimate (e.g. intermediate clouds), under/over
estimation of atmospheric input data, terrain, microclimate and other effects, which are not captured by the model.
Part of this discrepancy is natural - as satellites monitor large area (of approx. 3x4 km) while ground sensors see
only micro area of approx. 1 squared centimetre. Due to higher complexity of the model, bias of satellite-based
DNI is higher than GHI.
On the measurement side, the discrepancy will be determined by accuracy/quality and errors of the instrument,
pollution of the detector, misalignment, data loggers, insufficient quality control, etc. Only quality-controlled
measurements from high-standard sensors should be used for reliable validation of satellite-based solar models.
Any issues in the ground measured data result in a skewed evaluation.
The most sought-after value by project developers, technical consultants and finance industry is the uncertainty
of the long-term yearly GHI or DNI estimate for the project site. The model uncertainty can be calculated from the
validation statistics (Bias) as shown in Chapter 6.
However, the uncertainty values should be also taking into account the fact that the measurements also include
an uncertainty component itself. In addition, when assessing the uncertainty of one single year, inter-annual
variability due to the climate factors should be evaluated as well.
In conclusion, assuming that the solar radiation values can be described using a normal probability distribution
(similarly as we have done when characterizing the model bias distribution), the total combined uncertainty is
calculated from:
Uncertainty of the Solargis model estimate
Uncertainty of the ground measurements
Inter-annual weather variability.
The influence of these three factors in the final uncertainty is calculated through the square root of the quadratic
sum of each uncertainty:
Ground measurements
Estimate of the long-term uncertainty of ground measurements can be a bit subjective – it can be based on
combination of the theoretical uncertainty of the instrument, results of quality control procedures and comparison
of the redundant measurements.
Considering that the absolute majority of the validation data have been collected using high-accuracy instruments
and applying the best measurement practices and strict quality control procedures, it is considered that a ±2.0%
should be added from GHI measurements from pyranometers and ±1.0% from DNI measurements from
pyrheliometers (see Tab. 8 and Tab. 9). This could serve as a good starting point for assessing annual uncertainty
of solar instruments. It is known from other comparisons that these values could be exceeded in standard
operating conditions.
On the other hand, utilization of the state-of-the-art instruments does not alone guarantee good results. Any
measurements are subject to uncertainty and the information is only complete, if the measured values are
accompanied by information on the associated uncertainty. Sensors and measurement process has inherent
features that must be managed by quality control and correction techniques applied to the raw measured data.
The lowest possible uncertainties of solar measurements are essential for accurate determination of solar
resource. Uncertainty of measurements in outdoor conditions is always higher than the one declared in the
technical specifications of the instrument. The uncertainty may dramatically increase in extreme operating
conditions and in case of limited or insufficient maintenance. Quality of measured data has significant impact on
validation and regional adaptation of satellite models.
Pyranometers RSR
Secondary Second
First class (After data post-processing)
standard class
GHI Hourly ±3% ±8% ±20% ±3.5% to ±4.5%
GHI Daily ±2% ±5% ±10% ±2.5% to ±3.5%
Pyrheliometers RSR
Secondary
First class (After data post-processing)
standard
DNI Hourly ±0.7% ±1.5% ±3.5% to ±4.5%
DNI Daily ±0.5% ±1.0% ±2.5% to ±3.5%
Interannual variability
Weather changes in cycles and it has also a stochastic nature. Therefore annual solar radiation in each year can
deviate from the long-term average in the range of few percent. This is expressed by interannual variability, i.e. the
magnitude of the year-by-year change.
The interannual variability for selected sites is calculated from the unbiased standard deviation of the yearly values
over the available period of years, considering a simplified assumption of normal distribution of the annual sums.
All sites show similar patterns of variation over the recorded period. This analysis can be made for longer periods
(see samples for few sites in Tab. 10), i.e. the uncertainty at different confidence levels expected for average
values within more than one-year period.
𝑆𝑇𝐷𝐸𝑉
𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑛 =
√𝑛
Tab. 10: Table of GHI interannual variability of a period of 1, 5, 10 and 25 years for several sample sites
Variability [%]
Nearby city Country
1 year 5 years 10 years 25 years
Kosice Slovakia 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
Fresno United States 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Kurnool India 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Calama Chile 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Upington South Africa 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
The historical period used for calculating the inter-annual variability may have some influence, although it is
observed to be quite small (e.g. if we compare results from 10 years of data with results from 20 years of data).
The expected difference for GHI would be less than 1% (depends on the climate zone). A higher influence may be
found in data sets representing occurrence of large stratospheric volcano eruptions.
Good models have known and lowest possible uncertainty. As it has been described in previous chapters, the
expected uncertainty for a specific site can be derived from the analysis of validation statistics for a sufficient
number of validation points.
Assuming that the solar resource estimates from two different models follow a normal distribution, the combined
uncertainty can be compared and represented in charts. The most expected value (P50) and its uncertainty will
determine the position of the center and the width of the probability distribution respectively.
Using a solar model with proven higher accuracy like Solargis provides more probable estimates and less weather-
related risk for the project. In other words, the distance between P50 and P90 values is smaller in such case.
In the sample below (see Tab.11), the model A has a higher uncertainty than model B and therefore distribution
of expected values in model A will be spread within a wider range. In other words, values expected by model B will
occur with a higher probability.
Tab. 11: Uncertainty of GHI values from two models at a sample site in Kosice, Slovakia
Model A Model B
[kWh/m2] [kWh/m2]
Most expected value (P50) 1193 1230
Value exceeded with 90% probability (P90) 1069 1149
Uncertainty (P90 confidence interval) ±10.4% ±6.6%
Fig. 7: Distribution of GHI expected values by two different models for a sample site
8 ABOUT SOLARGIS
Solargis background
Primary business of Solargis is in providing support to the site qualification, planning, financing and operation of
solar energy systems. We are committed to increase efficiency and reliability of solar technology by expert
consultancy and access to our databases and customer-oriented services.
The Company builds on 25 years of expertise in geoinformatics and environmental modelling, and 15 years in
solar energy and photovoltaics. We strive for development and operation of new generation high-resolution
quality-assessed global databases with focus on solar resource and energy-related weather parameters. We are
developing simulation, management and control tools, map products, and services for fast access to high quality
information needed for system planning, performance assessment, forecasting and management of distributed
power generation. Members of the team have long-term experience in R&D and are active in the activities of
International Energy Agency, Solar Heating and Cooling Program, Task 46 Solar Resource Assessment and
Forecasting.
Solargis operates a set of online services, which includes data, maps, software, and geoinformation services for
solar energy.
http://solargis.com
Legal information
Considering the nature of climate fluctuations, interannual and long-term changes, as well as the uncertainty of
measurements and calculations, Solargis cannot take guarantee of the accuracy of estimates. Solargis has
done maximum possible for the assessment of climate conditions based on the best available data, software
and knowledge. Solargis shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect or punitive damages
arising or alleged to have arisen out of use of the provided information.
© 2016 Solargis, all rights reserved
Solargis s.r.o.
Registered at: M. Marecka 3, 841 07 Bratislava, Slovakia
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
REFERENCES
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ANNEX