Today’s World

Driven by Tomorrow’s Tech

NO
W

March 2025
Director, IE Center for the Governance of Change
Dr. Irene Blázquez is the Director of the Center for the Governance of Change at IE
University. She is a legal scholar and international lawyer by training, as well as a
specialist in strategy, security, defense, and technology. She previously served as
Adviser to the State Secretary for Global Spain (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and as
Head of the Strategic Planning Office (National Security Department - Spanish Prime
Minister’s Office) between 2012 and 2020. Dr. Blázquez is a senior lecturer in public
international law (on leave) at the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and was awarded
the best PhD thesis prize. Irene holds a Master in EU Law (Universidad Autónoma de
Madrid), and Diplomas in National Defense (Spanish Ministry of Defense), National and
International Security (Harvard Kennedy School) and Common Security and Defense
Policy (European Security and Defense College).

Irene was the moderator for Panel 1 of the Tech and Foresight Summit.

Associate Director, IE Center for the Governance of Change

Darío García de Viedma works as Associate Director at the Center for the Governance
of Change at IE University. During his career in AI, he contributed to building
Citibeats- an Ethical-AI software designed to help decision-makers prevent the next
crisis. He has worked as Policy Consultant for institutions in more than 90 countries.
He conceptualized dashboards and machine learning models to measure complex
aspects of public opinion such as Social Unrest, Distrust or Polarization. Darío earned
his degree in Political Science from Sciences Po Paris, followed by a Master of Science
in Social Research Methods from the London School of Economics.

Founder & Managing Director, Anakiya

Purvi Parekh is the Founder and Managing Director of Anakiya Consulting, an
independent consultancy established in 2016 to focus on the telecommunications and
technology sectors across international markets. Purvi is a qualified solicitor in
England and Wales based in Spain. She has over 30 years of experience in the TMT
sector, including serving as partner and head of the telecoms sector in DLA Piper and
Olswang and leading the legal function in-house at MOVA (formerly Digital Mobile
Spectrum Limited). Her extensive expertise spans all kinds of technology. She has
strong credentials in some of the most innovative commercial projects, including
national and international fiber roll-out, infrastructure outsourcing, new technology
investment transactions and deep network sharing. She supports the whole value
chain across AI, IoT and disruptive telecom services. She currently collaborates with
ECIJA as Counsel in Technology and Telecommunications. Purvi holds a bachelor's
degree in law from the University of Liverpool.

Purvi was the moderator for Panel 2 of the Tech and Foresight Summit.

Associate Director, IE Center for the Governance of Change

Giaccomo Ugarelli is an Associate Director at the Center for the Governance of
Change at IE University. He has extensive government experience, particularly in Peru,
where he served as Chief of Staff to President Francisco Sagasti. Prior to this, he was
an Advisor in Congress. Giaccomo has also been a lecturer of Political Science at the
Universidad del Pacífico and worked as a researcher for the Peruvian think tank, the
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP). He holds two master’s degrees in Latin American
Studies and International Public Policy from the University of Oxford and the
University College London (UCL). Additionally, he is a co-author of “Gobernar en
Tiempos de Crisis,” published in 2023 by Planeta.

02
Introduction
This report, "Today's World Driven by Tomorrow's Tech: Now, Next,
New," is a strategic foresight study based on the inaugural Tech &
Foresight Summit, which took place on November 21, 2024, at IE
University, under the leadership of the Center for the Governance of
Change (CGC) and in partnership with Meta.

The Summit aspires to become an annual, internationally recognized

gathering dedicated to analyzing megatrends, drivers, and vectors of
change, systematically exploring the potential futures shaped by
technological disruption. This exploration is conducted through the
geopolitical, economic-environmental, and social dimensions, all
viewed through the lens of general systems theory inspired by Niklas
Luhmann.

The Summit epitomizes the core identity of the CGC. As the IE

University’s center focused on studying the social impact and
transformation driven by new technologies, CGC’s scientific approach
to applied research programs and its high-level executive training
offerings for businesses, corporations, and governments are grounded
in foresight. Through this methodology, the CGC systematically
explores probable futures, enabling proactive anticipation and
resilient adaptation to forthcoming changes.

At the CGC, we operate on the premise that we are living in a time of

constant and rapid change — an acceleration that is likely to
continue, reshaping international organizations, governments,
corporations, societies, and individuals. Technologies, particularly
emerging and disruptive ones, are altering political power dynamics,
influencing the protection and exercise of fundamental rights and
freedoms, and redefining the conditions for societal prosperity and
planetary sustainability. These technologies are also challenging the
very essence of what it means to be human.

Given the velocity of change, as evidenced by the developments in

the four months following the Summit, one could argue that the
future is already here — or at the very least, that the present as we
know it is becoming increasingly ephemeral. This makes the
collective effort to co-create desirable futures all the more imperative.

The 2024 Summit was precisely such an exercise — a collective

intelligence initiative that, through two thematic panels, brought
together high-level speakers and participants from international
organizations, governments, businesses, the entrepreneurial sector
and academia. Notably, it included a significant representation of IE
University students, creators of the Club for the Governance of
Change, echoing the CGC’s philosophy.

This report builds upon the expert discussions held in the 2024
Summit, adding an additional layer of sophistication to broaden the
collective intelligence exercise and make of it a combined collective
intelligence assessment. Specifically, the vectors of change identified
during the debates — defined as the pathways or directions in which
change manifests, as opposed to the more systemic of

03
megatrends, metatrends, metadisruptions, and drivers of change,
which point to the intrinsic causes of change — were subsequently
subjected to public opinion testing. This public opinion assessment
was based on two material references: relevant publications in
thefield and the presence of these change vectors in social media
discourse.

Through this combined collective intelligence practice, the report

identifies nine vectors of change, structured around a CGC-developed
metric aligned with the well-known "Now, Next, New" framework. This
metric captures the strength and cadence of public discourse on
these issues, underscoring their importance for society’s collective
attention as they shape the future ahead. “Now” marks a mobilization
and high interest in the social conversation; “Next”, important but
more contained; and “New”, though relevant, is scarce in public
discourse.

The nine identified vectors — computing divide, future of money,

individualized societies; data centers, sustainability and humanization
of tech; defense innovation, quantum, generational inequality —
should not be interpreted in isolation. As indicated by the earlier
reference to general systems theory, any analysis of risks and threats
necessarily recognizes the interconnected and causal relationships
between these vectors, beyond any notion of single-cause
vulnerabilities.

This global dialogue, underpinning the evolution of the nine vectors

across present, near-term, and more uncertain futures, brings
together perspectives from around the world to set a vision for the
pathways of change. It offers a snapshot of the current landscape,
structured around two key sections for each vector: Context and
Signals. We then end these snapshots with a series of
recommendations.

Notably, the signals section combines expert insights and community

opinion through social listening practices. In my view, these signals
provide a valuable framework for assessing whether the changes
driven by each specific vector are likely to remain stable, diminish, or
grow. Supported by data, this approach recalls Nate Silver’s work in
The Signal and the Noise (YEAR), drawing on a Bayesian framework
and statistics reminiscent of the Superforecasters model developed
by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Certain events increase the
likelihood of specific trends materializing, making these signals
illuminating indicators that add dynamism and fluidity to the
interconnected framework of the nine vectors.

As detailed in the report itself: “These signals were key markers or

events that could cause shifts in the trajectory of that vector —
specifically identifying whether it continues to grow, begins to
decline, or remains stable. This process was designed to ensure that
each vector was not only relevant at the time of the report but also
key to the foresight nature of the approach, enabling future trend
evaluation, monitoring, and analysis.”

The report’s recommendations aim to inform the decision-making

process, providing strategic insights for the tech and foresight
community and beyond. A set of recommendations is provided on
the political-strategic and instrumental level, aiming to build upon the

04
frameworks of the Draghi and Letta reports, always within the context
of the vectors of change we have identified, which together form in
our view a coherent and optimal selection.

Written in an accessible, non-technical style, the report aims to reach

out to the foresight & tech community and other audiences, ensuring
when broadening its scope of reach consistency with the combined
collective intelligence methodology followed, community and expert
opinion.

In an era of weakened international defense, widespread economic

insecurity, intersection with economic policies of unilateral trade
policies, declining liberal democracies, all these spaces shaped by the
influence of new technologies—technologies that will define the new
rules of confrontation and battlefields, transform supply chains, and
impact the space of individual freedoms and rights, depending on
how these technologies are designed, developed, and deployed—
meetings like those facilitated by the Tech & Foresight Summit and
the subsequent transfer of knowledge are more necessary than ever
to think about the future and remain part of the conversation.

Irene Blázquez Navarro

Director, IE University

Center for the Governance of Change

05
Methodology
What Are Vectors
of Change?
Vectors of Change represent the routes or directions through which
societal transformations unfold. Unlike Drivers of Change, which are
the underlying forces or reasons behind shifts—such as technological
advancements, demographic shifts, or policy decisions—vectors of
change map the possible trajectories these forces may take. They do
not point to specific end states but rather outline multiple, evolving
paths shaped by trends, challenges, and obstacles. Thus, by imagining
the future, we participate in creating it.

What is Collective
Intelligence?
“Collective intelligence is a form of universally
distributed intelligence, constantly enhanced,
coordinated in real time, and resulting in the
effective mobilization of skills”1
Pierre Lévy

This report employs a collective intelligence approach, which allows

for the consideration and merging of perspectives from diverse
stakeholders. Through such collaborative sharing of knowledge, we
broaden our understanding of potential future changes and avoid
blind gaps in current thinking. This method further enriches strategic
foresight planning through a more comprehensive analysis of
emergent trends and alongside this, identifies the opportunities

to address them.

06
 Research
methodology

PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

Decision Makers Insight Social Listening Analysis Interpretation by the
CGC

Panelist Foresight
Social Media
Academic
workshop monitoring papers review Signal Recommendations

The methodology follows three phases:

i Identifying today’s vectors of change through a Summit with

decision-makers

ii Evaluating and validating these vectors through a social

listening analysis approach;

iii Fusing and interpreting the findings with members of the

Center for the Governance of Change and an independent
expert also a driving force behind the Summit. Going forward,
we will refer solely to the CGC when attributing the authorships
of the report.

07
PHASE 1
DECISION-MAKERS INSIGHTS
Our inaugural Tech & Foresight Summit, held in Madrid in November
2024, explored global scenarios and foresight strategies for resilience
amid accelerating technological disruption. A carefully curated
international audience of over 50 decision-makers f rom diverse
backgrounds and professions were in attendance.

The Summit was structured into two main sections: Listen (A) and
Produce (B).

Panel 1 for the Tech and Foresight Summit. From left to right: Enrico Letta (Former Prime Minister of Italy
and Dean of the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs), Manuel de la Rocha (Secretary of
State and Director of the Bureau of Economic Affairs and G20, Cabinet of the Prime Minister of Spain),
Markus Reinisch (Vice President for Public Policy in Europe of Meta) and Irene Blázquez (Director of the
Center for the Governance of Change).

08
A_ Listen
In the Listen section, two panels were conducted—one on “The
Geopolitics of Technology: Europe's Competitive Age in the Digital
Age” and one on “Tech Governance: Diplomacy, Norms and Values.”
These panels featured stakeholders from various sectors who
presented their visions of the future, examining the vectors of change
that they observed. Using these insights, along with real-time
interaction through the Mentimeter platform, allowed for the
identification and validation of the key Vectors of Change that will
shape the future of foresight technology.

Foresight workshop, November 2024, IE Tower.

B_ produce
The Produce section, co-designed and moderated by Scott Smith and
Susan Cox-Smith from Changeist, focused on three teams, each
consisting of approximately ten participants supported by student
rapporteurs, each tasked with a different direction and objective. The
first team concentrated on the integration of emerging technologies
into daily life over a 20-year timeline, focusing particularly on ethical
and beneficial advancements. The second team tackled the building
of sustainable prosperity with finite resources, exploring the
foundations required for a sustainable Europe five years ahead. The
third team participated in a "crisis room" scenario, strategizing the
European Union’s six-month response to a new U.S. administration,
balancing immediate policy actions with mid-term strategic
objectives.
The varying geographical scope and time horizons required each
team to explore flexible frameworks adaptable to different
technologies, different social influences and different political
agendas. Given the foresight focus on the criticality of these in
Europe, a tailored version of Three Horizons framework was chosen
for sense-making and for the exploration of emerging change.
Originally developed by Bill Sharpe with Andrew Curry, Graham
Leicester, Andrew Lyon, and Ioan Fazey, the Three Horizons
framework helps describe and analyze systemic change—clarifying
forces that maintain the status quo, identifying early signals of
change, and mapping future transformations that connect today to
tomorrow. The intuitive structure of the Three Horizons framework

09
allows participants new to foresight to engage more fully, thus

strengthening collaboration and collective intelligence gathering.2

Rather than progressing linearly through each of the three Horizons,

all teams first defined the present (H1), then shifted to envisioning a

plausible future (H3) before returning to address transitional forces

(H2). This future-first approach helped teams distinguish incremental

adaptation f rom transformative change, better recognize transition

dynamics, and more clearly identify points for action. Critically, this

approach forced teams to articulate which forces were sustaining the

present, which pressures were disrupting it, and what was emerging

as foresight change and opportunities for the future.

The H1-H3-H2 sequence ensured teams anchored in the present,

could visualize a desired future, and were able to map enablers and

barriers in H2, the Horizon in which old and new collide. Discussions

were consciously structured around the following key questions per

Horizon to avoid the defaulting to short-term fixes or speculative

long-term visions:

1 What defines the world at this horizon?

2 What enablers support or sustain it?

3 What barriers, risks, or constraints hinder evolution f rom it?

This remit focused teams to engage deeply in systems thinking and

deepened the exploration of transition dynamics and strategic trade-

offs. Crucially, it enabled participants to synthesize discussions,

integrate personal expertise, and engage in rapid social sensemaking

whereby complex foresight insights could be distilled into actionable

steps.

Even in the high-paced workshop environment, the use of the

adapted Horizons approach ensured that rapid synthesis of insights

was not only possible, but that it was underpinned by a recognition of

the trade-offs, interdependencies, and consequences, albeit

sometimes unintended. Hence was set the foundation for the next

phase: social listening and the understanding of how emerging

changes could be used more concretely to build for the future.

10
PHASE 2
Social Listening
The Center for the Governance of Change utilized a Social Listening
approach in Phase 2 to identify and evaluate the presence and
evolution of vectors of change within public perception and with
academia. This core step validated whether the ideas prominent in
the agendas of decision-makers' also resonated within public opinion
on social media and were being reflected in scientific portfolios and
academic publication. By monitoring the volume and variance of
discussions in this way, the Center was able to classify vectors of
change into three levels: The 'Now', The 'Next', and The 'New'

'Now' vectors show a constant decrease in presence across social

media and academic publications
'Next' vectors have seen a consistent increase in discussions for
at least two years, signaling steady and growing attention
'New' vectors have experienced a recent increase, with increases
observed for less than a year or showing abnormal peaks in
attention.

The CGC developed a Boolean query for each of the 70 vectors

identified at the summit, conducting systematic searches across the
social listening platform Buzzsumo and Google Scholar. This analysis
tracked conversation volumes, engagement trends, and scholarly
output over a five-year period, from January 1, 2020, to February 1,
2025.

To further structure the analysis, vectors were categorized into three

thematic areas: Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Society.

Out of nearly 70 vectors identified at the summit, the CGC chose to

highlight nine. These vectors align with public interest and represent
trends that can function both independently and in connection with
one another. Each offers valuable insights on its own, while together
they form a broader framework for understanding future
developments. This selection ensures that readers can explore
multiple pathways for adaptation, whether by focusing on specific
trends or assessing how they interact. By structuring the vectors this
way, the aim is to help future-proof strategies and provide a clearer
view of emerging opportunities and risks.

Regardless of their area of operations, readers should evaluate how

these key vectors will impact them and monitor their influence over
time.

11
PHASE 3
Interpretation
The final step of the methodology following the selection of the
vectors of change was a synthesis of findings by the Center for the
Governance of Change, using the output of the social listening
analysis. Each selected vector of change was individually scrutinized
and challenged, to identify clear and actionable insights.

To achieve this, the CGC identified specific indicators or "signals" for

each vector. These signals were key markers or events that could
cause shifts in the trajectory of that vector —specifically identifying
whether it continues to grow, begins to decline, or remains stable.
This process was designed to ensure that each vector was not only
relevant at the time of the report but key to the foresight nature of
the approach, for future trend evaluation, monitoring, and analysis.

The outcome of this methodology informed the series of

recommendations set out in this report. It is designed to inform
stakeholders across private, public, academic, and civil sectors, based
on collective data intelligence. With foresight at the heart of this
approach, the consolidation of our methodologies as described above
will allow decision-makers and public opinion to be engaged more
effectively in shaping our future.

Collective Intelligence session. IE Tower, Novemeber 2024.

12
 Matrix of Vectors
of Change

NOW

Computing Data centers. Defense

divide. Can Europe scale Its innovation.
From connectivity to data centers securely, Can the European
G
e computing, an asset efficiently, and on industry keep up
o
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l for a competitive time? with the changing
it
ic
s resilient economy. nature of war?

Future of Sustainability of Quantum.

money. the tech sector. Advancing quantum
G Tracking financial
 Finding the made in the EU.
e
o
e innovation to equilibrium between
anticipate technological

c
o
n
o
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ic socioeconomic development and
s
change. sustainability.

Individualised H umani ing

z G enerational
societies. technology. ine ualities.
q

Redefining W ill technology A growing

community in serve humans or polari ation betwee
z n


digitally humanity? age groups and

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 generations.
societies.
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y

13
NOW

14
Computing
Divide
From Connectivity to Computing,
an Asset for a Competitive
Resilient Economy
Salience data: consistent
decrease on social media
1/ context
When talking about the digital divide, conversation frequently
focuses on internet connectivity as broadband access is seen as a
prerequisite for digital inclusion. By 2023, more than nine out of every
ten households in the EU had internet access (93.1%), with slightly
higher coverage in cities (94.9%) compared to towns and suburbs
(92.7%) and rural areas (90.5%).3 However, connectivity alone is not
enough to secure Europe’s long-term competitiveness, technological
sovereignty, and leadership in emerging technologies.

The challenge is the computing divide—the gap in access to

advanced computing infrastructure (e.g., high-performance GPUs,
cloud services), open-source AI models, and venture funding for AI
development and adoption. Without broad access to these resources,
AI innovation risks becoming too geographically concentrated. Across
Europe today, AI innovation is primarily found in a few regions, with
France and Germany concentrating 85.75% of all AI Venture Capital
(VC) funding.4

Promoting the geographical diversification of AI development within

EU borders is essential for the continent’s long-term competitiveness,
innovation resilience, and technological sovereignty. A more
distributed computing infrastructure would enable different regions
and social groups to contribute to a greater extent to AI
advancements, increasing the variety of perspectives and practices
and consequently therefore applications developed (what some call
“technodiversity”). This diversification reduces dependency on a small
number of actors, mitigating risks associated with bottlenecks or
failures in centralized systems. By reducing reliance on a few
innovation hubs, the EU can better withstand shocks and disruptions,
particularly important given increasing geopolitical instability and the
weaponization of economic dependencies. A decentralized approach
also strengthens digital infrastructure, which allows for the adoption
of more localized and edge computing operations to reduce latency,
improve resilience, and optimize performance.

15
2/ signal
A key signal to track the computing divide in the EU is the percentage
of venture capital investment and unicorn generation in emerging
tech hubs compared to dominant EU innovation centers. Monitoring
the share of funding and high-value startups originating outside of
these main established hubs will indicate whether AI and computing
innovation is decentralizing or remains concentrated. A rising
percentage of investments and unicorns in regions beyond the
traditional core (i.e., France and Germany) would suggest a narrowing
computing divide, signaling the requisite expansion, with broader
access to capital, infrastructure, and talent across the EU.

16
Future

of Money
Tracking Financial Innovation to
Anticipate Socioeconomic Change
Salience data: consistent
decrease on social media
1/ context
The way financial innovation evolves is one of the strongest indicators
of broader economic and technological shifts. In 2025, monetary
trends moved in two directions: the first toward decentralization and
financial inclusion and the second, at first inspection, being scarcity-
driven valuation. However, on deeper analysis, rather than opposing
trends, both directions are shaped by the same logic: the
financialization of emerging technologies.

On the one hand, techno-optimists envision a future where

automation and AI-driven economies reshape the foundations of
financial investment. Some propose models like universal crypto-
income, where economic activity is no longer tied to traditional work
structures but is instead linked to financial innovation, thus providing
greater financial flexibility for its stakeholders.5

At the same time, financial systems are increasingly, reactively, having

to adapt to new forms of value, where access to essential resources—
computing power, energy, and semiconductors—play a key role in
economic and geopolitical influence. In this scenario, there is a shift
from traditional monetary currencies to resource and asset-based
units, such as energy credits, access to semiconductors, or AI model
ownership.6

2/ signal
Tracking financial innovation is important for understanding the
direction of the broader economy, as financial systems often serve as
the avant-garde of economic transformation and the financial
sector’s priorities and movements can signal what will define
economic power in the future. Observing where financial systems are
expanding, which innovations gain traction and where capital is
flowing are all key to understanding potential socio-economic
change. Financial inclusion initiatives that aim to bring banking
services to misleading populations, alternative credit systems that
provide loans based on non-traditional criteria, or new resource-based
valuation models that appraise assets like carbon credits all offer early
insights, into whether economies are heading toward periods of
prosperity, new asset-driven wealth creation, or increasing scarcity.

17
Individualized
Societies
Redefining Community in Digitally
Individualized Societies
Salience data: consistent
decrease on social media
1/ context
Current observations of European societies indicate a significant
trend towards individualization, influenced by the proliferation of
digital platforms and changes in consumer behavior. This trend is
evident in the reduced frequency of physical social interactions, as
more individuals opt for online social media engagement and digital
entertainment, which replace traditional communal activities. The
shift from physical retail to online shopping further exemplifies this
trend, diminishing the social interactions and social collaborations
that were once integral to community life.7  

There is a growing responsibility and, indeed, an opportunity to

cultivate methods and means to connect individuals and nurture
genuine community engagement and resilience through technology.
Technology companies, in collaboration with society, institutions,
academia and independent innovators, are uniquely positioned to
engineer features that facilitate a shared and inclusive communal
identity in the digital world.

2/ signal
The development of apps and services that promote community
engagement and aim to cultivate lasting relationships might indicate
a societal shift. The emergence of “third spaces”—environments
designed for social interaction beyond traditional homes and
workplaces—reflects a growing desire for more meaningful,
personalized communal experiences. If these trends become more
integral to daily life rather than existing on the periphery of
mainstream culture, they could signal a reversal of individualization.

18
next

19
Data

Centers
Can Europe scale up its Data Centers
securely, efficiently, and on time?
Salience data: consistent
increase on social media /
decrease in papers
1/ context
Data centers are critical networks of computing and storage
resources that support daily business and consumer operations.
There are approximately 1,200 data centers in Europe, which is
significantly behind the over 5,000 data centers hosted by the U.S.8
The next wave of technological advancements, including quantum
computing, will require a new generation of data centers designed to
meet future digital demands. However, environmental concerns are
significant. If the power demand for data centers rises from 460
terawatt-hours in 2022 to 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026, this growth
would be approximately equivalent to Japan's total electricity
consumption.9

2/ signal
Data centers face risks from cyber threats and foreign dependencies
(as access to semiconductors), prompting nations to prioritize
domestic control and development10. Rapidly developing more
sustainable data centers in Europe is essential to keep pace with
technological advancements and prepare for future developments11.
Given the increasing demand for data centers for today’s and future
technologies, it is vital to observe how the EU’s climate and
sustainability goals will influence the development of new data
centers. As the demand for data centers rises, further innovative
efforts to minimize their environmental impact will emerge. This will
include using more technologies that consume less energy, as well as
optimizing energy and cooling system management. This innovation
effort will help the EU meet both its climate goals and the energy
demand for future technologies. The location of new data centers will
support this effort, particularly in European countries with a lower risk
of climate hazards, good infrastructure and connectivity, and access
to reliable energy sources.

20
Sustainability
of the Tech
Sector
Finding the equilibrium between
technological development and
sustainability
Salience data: consistent
increase in papers
1/ context
The tech sector faces increasing scrutiny to balance performance with
environmental responsibility. Technologies such as AI are significant
emitters of carbon emissions. A study predicts that in 2027, NVIDIA's
AI servers will consume more energy than the amount Sweden and
Argentina consumed in 2024.12 The rising demand for data centers
may drive the construction of more fossil-fuel power plants,
jeopardizing climate targets.

2/ signal
A key development to monitor is the advancement of hardware and
software technologies designed to bridge the gap between ecological
and economic sustainability. As AI and data centers drive energy
consumption to unprecedented levels, industries will be forced to
adopt solutions that reduce their environmental impact without
compromising performance.

Tracking innovations in energy-efficient chips, AI model optimization,

and sustainable data infrastructure will reveal how the tech sector
responds to mounting regulatory and market pressures. The
widespread implementation of these technologies across industries
will indicate whether sustainability is becoming an integrated
standard rather than an afterthought in technological development.

21
Humanizing
Technology
Will Technology Serve humans
or Humanity?
Salience data: consistent
increase in papers
1/ context
Technology is deeply integrated into human lives, moving beyond
screens and devices to become an ambient, adaptive presence. The
shift from explicit user input to passive, reactive consumption is
accelerating, with AI-driven interfaces replacing traditional modes of
engagement and outsourcing activities to technology becoming the
norm. Devices like “Rabbit r1” are already reducing reliance on
conventional smartphones by integrating AI-driven personal
assistants, while Meta’s “Orion glasses” signal a move toward AR
interfaces controlled by hand, eye, and brain signals rather than
physical inputs.13 Advancements in brain-computer interfaces
suggest a future where direct neural interaction could eliminate the
need for screens altogether. In this trajectory, technology will no
longer be perceived as a separate entity—AI will shape interactions,
decisions, and perceptions without conscious (human) effort.

This said, our individual engagement with technology is becoming

more human; interfaces are vanishing, and interactions are becoming
more intuitive, emotional, and personalized. However, what is less
clear is whether technology is becoming more human for the
individual or for humanity at large. Currently, digital age harms such
as shortened attention spans, digital dependency, uncertain future
work landscapes, polarization, trust deficits, and declining mental
health need rectification. Simply making AI more human-like will not
necessarily enhance our quality of life if it merely amplifies these
issues. Moreover, developing technology that anticipates and solves
future problems, not just today’s issues, is crucial. The real challenge
lies not just in humanizing AI but in designing it to meet the needs
and mitigate the risks of future societies.

2/ signal
A key signal to monitor is the concerns raised by activist and citizen
groups about technological challenges that have not yet fully
materialized. While many focus on well-known issues like privacy,
misinformation, and job displacement, others are addressing future
risks—such as the loss of deep human connection, the erosion of
independent thinking, or the unintended consequences of AI-driven
decision-making.

Examining what these forward-looking activists are advocating for

can provide early insights into emerging societal and ethical
challenges. Are they proposing safeguards, new governance models,
or alternative technological pathways?

22
NEW

23
Defense
Innovation
Can the European Defense industry
keep up with the changing nature
of War?
Salience data: recent
increase on social media
1/ context
There is a significant shift in modern warfare. On the one hand, the
"fog of war" is disappearing, replaced by advanced surveillance
technologies that “see everything.”14 On the other hand, threats are
more sophisticated and thus harder to address. Drones, both tactical
and surveillance, are becoming the norm, dominating the battlefield
and providing real-time video feeds. This evolution has not only
transformed military tactics but also fostered an industrial race to
develop, produce, and scale more advanced and cost-effective
weapons models, positioning private sector innovation as a key
element in modern defense capabilities.

European defense is at the forefront of emerging technologies, but

breakthrough innovations require long-term capital investment and
high-risk funding. “Deep tech”, which refers to innovations that merge
cutting-edge engineering with scientific advancements, is resource-
intensive, characterized by high failure rates and uncertain returns. Its
scalability depends on sustained financial backing and industrial
adaptability. Whether deep tech becomes a transformative force in
military power will depend on how regulation and financial structures
align with the evolving European security landscape and concerns.

2/ signal
The key signal to monitor is who participates in public-private
collaborations for deep tech defense development. Are partnerships
limited to big companies with consolidated technologies, or are
governments also engaging with early-stage ventures for testing and
prototyping?

The nature of these collaborations will shape the battlefield of the

future. Tracking public tenders and opportunities for public-private
partnerships can reveal which deep tech applications are gaining
traction in defense. Are investments focused on established AI and
surveillance systems, or is there room for emerging technologies like
quantum encryption and cognitive warfare tools?.

24
Quantum
Advancing Quantum Made in the EU
Salience
increase data: recent
on social media
1/Quantum
context
can be applied to various technologies and holds the
potential for breakthroughs in fields such as medical research,
security, and the environment. Quantum computing, for instance,
differs from classical computing by utilizing “qubits” instead of
“binary” bits.15 While classical bits exist in either a 1 or 0 state, qubits
can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing quantum
computers to handle numerous computations at once.16 This
capability empowers future quantum computers to address issues
that current classical systems cannot tackle.

The EU possesses a considerable advantage in the field of quantum,

having the largest concentration of quantum-ready experts (231 per
million habitants) and the second highest public investment in
quantum (behind China).17 However, it faces challenges, including
limited private investment compared to the U.S, as well as an urgent
need for greater industrialization and commercialization of quantum
technologies.18 Without a unified, large-scale European quantum
program, the EU’s initiatives in quantum development may lead to
fragmentation and duplication of efforts and resources within the EU.

2/The signal
rapid advancement of quantum computing presents a
significant threat to the security in various areas, including the
financial sector.19 Today’s computers would take thousands of years
to crack current encryption standards.20 However, a suitably powerful
quantum computer could theoretically accomplish this in just
minutes. Within the next 10 to 15 years, quantum computers could
potentially breach these systems.21 The primary focus of quantum
technologies will be cryptographic security, which will be utilized to
safeguard financial sector servers and for defense.

25
Generational
Inequalities
A growing polarization between
age groups and generations
Salience data: recent
increase on social media
1/ context
Advances in technology, especially in medicine, have increased
people's life expectancy.

The EU has been experiencing a growing proportion of older

individuals due to higher life expectancy and low fertility rates. The
percentage of people aged 80 and above in the EU's population is
projected to rise from 6.1% in 2024 to 15.3% by 2100, while the share of
the working-age population is expected to decline during the same
period.22 Estimates indicate that there are currently three workers for
every retiree.23 However, by 2050, there will be fewer than two workers
for each retiree.24

Current government measures include increasing the retirement age.

However, these measures will have their limits, and therefore there
will be significant pressure on the current and younger working-age
generation to support the future elderly population, more than their
older counterparts.

2/ signal
A key signal to track is whether major policy debates and public
policies are increasingly framed through the lens of generational
inequality. As economic and demographic pressures grow, political
discussions around youth unemployment, pension sustainability, and
public spending distribution across age groups may start reflecting a
stronger generational divide.

Monitoring how frequently age-related disparities are highlighted in

policy proposals, government debates, and political communication
will indicate whether the gap between generations is becoming a
defining issue. If policies on taxation, welfare, and labor reforms begin
to emphasize generational trade-offs, it may suggest that societal
tensions between age groups are deepening and that intergenerational
inequality is becoming a central political and social concern.

26
Conclusions and
recommendations
As illustrated by the vectors of change highlighted in this report, a
new technological dynamic has emerged and is now embedded in
daily life. Given the velocity of change, maintaining technology that
is inclusive, sustainable, and relevant to the EU requires collective
effort. This involves dedicating energy and resources to un-
derstanding the business drivers and market forces that shape it.
Equally important is examining its interactions with geopolitical
and geo-economic dynamics, as well as its impact on international
organizations, governments, businesses, innovators, academia, and
society—ultimately influencing individuals at a fundamental level.

Harmonization and collaboration are often advanced as an

essential aspect of technology focused policy making. Focusing on
the core principles behind regulations, rather than just aligning
rules, can strengthen technology diplomacy and serve as a
foundation for future strategies that drive innovation and de-
velopment. Consequentially adoption and deployment will be
better advanced by smarter investment, by the growth of foresight
focused public private partnerships, supported by a more
homogenized and coordinated governance approach across
Europe.

With this in mind, the report concludes with a series of recom-


mendations shaped by our Vectors of Change. Underpinned by the
objective to make this report relevant and actionable for the tech
and foresight community and beyond, we have analyzed the
context and signals across each vector with the specific purpose of
providing recommendations genuinely capable of influencing
decision-making processes and driving change. Whilst these
cannot be interpreted in isolation, advancing these, singularly and
in the collective, will better place us to embrace technology.
Recommendation One
Atomore cohesive approach
traditional computing
A more cohesive fused approach to traditional computing, promoting
the use of open-source software and increasing the decentralization
of computing across the EU will lead to a more competitive and
resilient technology economy.

The CGC recommendation is to strengthen existing regional hubs

such as the high-performance computing centers in Barcelona,
Bologna, and Luxembourg and incentivize them to integrate into
broader networks that promote shared learning and collaborative
research in computing technologies. Empowering these centers of
excellence to bolster regional expertise, for example focusing on
Barcelona's capabilities in mobile technologies or Bologna’s focus on
agri-tech will expand accessibility and innovation across more diverse
geographic areas.
27
 Recommendation Two

Accelerate investment in
new technologies, deep tech
solutions and technology
infrastructure.
Deep tech cannot be deprioritized, as it remains slow to market and is
often developed in a f ragmented, siloed manner with duplication of
funds, efforts, and resources. Specifically, Europe needs a unified,
large-scale quantum computing program for optimizing de-
velopment and scaling up funding thus allowing for more robust
quantum computing solutions to be brought to market. By ac-
celerating the integration of quantum computing into EU
mainstream technology markets, Europe’s competitive position will
become stronger.

Smarter investment is also needed for technology inf rastructure. The

Data Centers, for example, are critical to sustaining technological
consumption and supporting deep tech solutions. Investment must
go beyond simple diversification—it requires strategic alignment with
long-term technological priorities to ensure funding is directed
toward scalable and impactful innovations rather than being dis-
persed across f ragmented initiatives or siloed beneficiaries. These
investments are essential for accelerating growth through innovative
scientific and technological advancements, both of which are key as
we move f rom the present into the Next and the New.

Recommendation Three

Remove barriers that hinder

technology deployment
Governments must adopt strategies that remove barriers to tech-
nology deployment while ensuring long-term regulatory certainty.
Energy resources, for example, are limited, under pressure, and often
confined to regulatory and political debates. Shifting the focus back
to the core principles of strategy and implementation is essential for
driving investment and growth.

Sustainability concerns influence strategic decisions, and uncertainty

around environmental impact can constrain financial investment in
technology innovation. To find the right equilibrium, financing for
energy resources and sustainability must be tackled directly, ensuring
that policies enable, rather than hinder, technological development.
The EU’s Clean Industrial Pact provides a f ramework for balancing
sustainability goals with industrial growth, supporting the adoption of
technologies that reduce energy consumption and enhance ef-
ficiency. This includes server consolidation, virtualization, and
quantum communication networks, which not only decrease energy
use but also strengthen Europe’s digital inf rastructure. Targeted
funding strategies that incentivize energy-efficient data centers and
advanced computing technologies will help mitigate sustainability-
related investment risks while ensuring Europe remains competitive
in deep tech development.

28
 Recommendation Four
Remove the fragmentation
that obstructs financial
investment
Fragmentation is a challenge both for the present and future of
financial investment in technology. To truly transform the EU, it
cannot function in isolation, where a handful of private sector
innovators advance independently in silos. A more coordinated
approach is needed to ensure that financial resources and tech-
nological advancements are aligned across sectors and regions.

Fostering and incentivizing initial collaborations between innovators,

rewarding inclusivity and transparency, and involving financial sector
stakeholders—such as banks and financial regulators—from the
outset will promote financial innovation. Early engagement is crucial
to encouraging entrepreneurship capable of driving meaningful
socio-economic change, ensuring that investment strategies are built
on sustainable, long-term cooperation rather than fragmented, short-
term efforts.

Recommendation Five
Make inclusiveness a priority;
reset the relationship
between the individual and
the collective
To counter the trend of individualization and strengthen community
connections through technology, inclusiveness and communication
must be priorities. Technology solutions should be designed with
collective intelligence in mind, ensuring that tech companies,
policymakers, researchers, and civil society collaborate to identify and
implement responsible, actionable solutions. Expanding access to
cross-sectoral foresight initiatives will help assess future risks with the
collective—rather than the individual—in mind, allowing these
insights to be more effectively integrated into product design and
governance.

Bridging generational divides is also essential for maintaining social

cohesion. If left unaddressed, polarization in perspectives between
generations could weaken intergenerational support systems and
societal stability. The EU must create spaces for meaningful
interaction between policymakers and different generations, ensuring
that younger and older voices contribute to shaping policies. Cross-
generational education, workforce training, and retraining initiatives
would support stronger community ties and equip individuals with
the skills needed to adapt to technological and societal shifts.

29
 Recommendation six
Direct Defense Investments
Toward Scalable and
Strategic Technologies
Perhaps now more than ever, it is essential that technology is built
and adopted in a way that keeps Europe secure in the light of the
threat of ever more sophisticated technological warfare. Empowering
decision makers, governments, businesses, to rise to the challenges
provoked by bureaucratic inefficiencies, complex regulations and
insufficient funding will enable traditional military techniques to keep
pace with the rapidly changing landscape of warfare powered by
technology.  

By increasing defense spending and simplifying regulations such that

venture capital investment specific for military focused technology
can be increased, especially in deep tech, would enhance Europe’s
defense capabilities. Investing more in technologies such as quantum
communications, AI and drones supports the vital security of all EU
member states.

Underpinning our foresight technology recommendations, we

circle back to the power of the collective. It is essential to increase
collaboration and reduce duplication in tech innovation and
adoption, ensuring that technology is built not just for the present
but for future generations.

30
annex
speakers
Enrico Letta
Soon-to-be-Appointed Dean of the IE School of
Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.
He is the current President of the Jacques Delors Institute and
served as Prime Minister from 2013 to 2014 and as Secretary of the
Italian Democratic Party from 2021 to 2023. He was Minister of
European affairs in 1998, Minister of Industry from 1999-2001, and a
Member of the European Parliament from 2004-2009. In 2014, he
became Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences
Po Paris. He graduated from the University of Pisa in International
Law and holds a Ph.D. in European Community Law from the Scuola
Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa.

Bárbara Navarro
Head of Research, Public Policy and Institutional
Relations at Banco Santander
Prior to her current role, she spent 14 years working for Google as
Director of Public Policy and Governmental Affairs for the South of
Europe in Madrid, Head of Asia Pacific in Hong Kong, and head for
Google Cloud APAC based in Singapore. Before her work at Google,
she was Director of Public Policy and Government Relations for NBC
Universal and before that Director of Intellectual Property for
ClarkeModet. She received a Degree in law from Universidad
Pontificia de Comillas (ICADE), an Executive MBA from IESE
Business School. For 8 years, she has been a professor at Carlos III
University.

Manuel de la Rocha
Secretary of State and Director of the Bureau of
Economic Affairs and G20, Cabinet of the Prime
Minister of Spain.
He advises the government on economic matters. Previously, he
served as Deputy Director of Financial Advisory at ICEX Trade and
Investment and worked for international organizations like the
European Commission, the African Development Bank, and the
World Bank. He graduated from the Universidad Autónoma de
Madrid with a degree in Business Administration and holds a
Master’s in Latin American Politics and Economy from Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, and a Master’s in International Relations
and International Business from Columbia University.

Markus Reinisch
Vice President for Public Policy in Europe, Meta
He is the Vice President for Public Policy in Europe at Meta, a role he
has held since 2018. His portfolio includes the management of the
company’s regional public policy strategy and key relationships with
senior policy stakeholders. Since 2022, he also oversees the
company’s economic policy strategy. Prior to this, he was the Global
Public Policy Director at Vodafone where he was responsible for
leading the company’s work on developing policy strategies and
engagement with policy makers. He has also held other executive
policy roles within the communications industry including at Colt
Group, Orange Group, and Deloitte Consulting. He holds an LLM
from the University of Warwick and a law degree from the University
of Vienna.

32
Ignacio Torreblanca
Director of the Madrid Office of the European
Council on Foreign Relations
He is a senior policy fellow and head of the Madrid office of the
European Council on Foreign Relations, a position he has held since
its creation in 2007. He is a professor of Political Science at
Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) in Madrid.
He is a weekly columnist in EL MUNDO as author of the blog “Café
Steiner” and a weekly contributor on RNE (Spanish National Radio)
and RTVE. Previously, he was Editorial Director of EL PAIS where he
also authored a weekly column in the International Section and a
blog.

Ignacio holds a PhD in Political Science from the Universidad

Complutense de Madrid.

Juan Santaló
Professor of Strategic Management at IE University
He is an expert in corporate governance and competitive strategy.
He served as the Chair of IE’s Strategic Management Department
from 2008 to 2013 and has directed the Observatory on Competition
Policy, contributing significantly to research on antitrust policy and
its intersection with corporate strategy. He has an extensive
academic career including a visiting professorship at Bocconi
University, Tulane University’s Freeman School of Business, and the
University of Chicago.

Juan holds a bachelor’s in Economics from the Universitat Central

de Barcelona, and two Master’s in Economics from Universitat
Pompeu Fabra and the University of Chicago. He furthered his
career with a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.

Elena Yndurain
Interim CEO and Executive Advisor QunaSys
She is a technology strategist intrapreneur specialized in digital
transformation and emerging technologies. She has experience
driving high-tech initiatives into the market internationally, creating
new digital products, and business units from the ground up. She
has worked with IBM, Microsoft, and Nokia, among others, in
executive roles creating business units to launch high-tech solutions
based on mobile, AI, and quantum computing, creating the
enabling ecosystem mostly for telco, finance, and healthcare
industries.

Elena holds a bachelor’s in Mathematics and Computer Science

from the University of Michigan, an Executive MBA from IE Business
School, and a Master’s in Telecommunications Engineering from
Universidad Carlos III. She further completed a Ph.D. in
Telecommunications Engineering at Universidad Carlos III.

33
participants
Adrián Blanco
Head of Funding Department & Head of Latam Desk
of ICEX

Adrián Joffre
Partner and President at beBartlet

Ajinkya Deshpande
Student at IE University

Ana Echagüe Schwartz

Adviser at the Secretary General of Foreign Affairs
at the Office of the Prime Minister of Spain

Ángeles Figeroa Alcorta

Executive Director for Partnerships at IE University

Ann Reilly
Coach at AdaptSuccess

Annick Janssens
Director of the Entrepreneurship & Innovation
Center at IE University

34
Carlos López Blanco
Chairman at ESYS

Carmen Jordá
Head of the Intelligence and Foresight Office
at Prosegur

Christin Pfeiffer
Senior Consultant at UNESCO

Daniel Pujazón
Digital Policy Lead at Santander

David Martín
Partner in Regulatory Strategy at Monitor Deloitte

David Xavier
Secretary General at the General Secretariat of the
Presidency of the Council of Ministers of Portugal

Darina Vasileva
Student at IE University

35
Dolores Ramos
Head of Digital Public Policy at an Ibex 35 Company

Eva María Fernández de

Independent Director at Banca March
Góngora

Ibo Sanz
CEO of LLYC Venturing and Senior Director
of Deep Digital Strategy at LLYC

Ignacio Uriarte
Advisor at the Spanish Congress of Deputies

Jon Durand
Student at IE University

José Marino García García

Head of Strategic Projects in the Office for
Economic Affairs and G20 at the Office of the
Prime Minister of Spain.

José Moisés Martín Carretero

Director General at the Center for Technological
Development and Innovation, Spanish Ministry of
Science, Innovation and Universities

36
Juan Nuñez-Gallego
Senior Advisor at Palantir Technologies

Leia Gonzalez-Lee
Student at IE University

Lisette Guittard
VP of Transformation and Change
Management at Santander

Lucas Losantos
Student at IE University

Maïa Mackenzie Espinosa

Student at IE University

Maite Arcos
General Director at ESYS

Marcos Cuevas
CEO at Planetary

37
Mara Balestrini
CTO, BID Lab

María Antonia Otero

Independent Board Member at Banca March

María Caso
Founder at DemosLab

María Luisa Castaño

Head of the Energy Department at CIEMAT

Mélida López
CEO at Kanzo Tech

Miguel Otero
Research Director at IE University

Olivier Woeffray
Foresight, Strategy and Insights Lead at ARUP

38
Pablo Simón
Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Paula Borges
PhD Student at Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Paula Martínez,
Chief of Staff at How to Change the World

Paz Guzmán
Senior Economist and Economic Spokesperson in
Spain at the European Commission

Salvador Llaudes
Director of the Cabinet for Economic Affairs and G20
at the Office of the Prime Minister of Spain

Sam Ferdinand
Student at IE University

Sebastian Oertel
Student at IE University

39
Tomás Lucero
Student at IE University

Víctor Ausín
Director General of Economic Policy at the Spanish
Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business

Yolanda Román
Director General of Public Affairs, Atrevia

40
Acknowledgements
We are deeply grateful to Meta and their Public Policy team,
particularly Markus Reinisch, VP of Public Affairs for Europe, and José
Luis Zimmermann, Head of Public Policy for Spain and Portugal, for
their trust in the value of foresight and the importance of harnessing
collective intelligence to address the complex social challenges
ahead. 

Special thanks to the amazing speakers and participants of the

Summit (detailed in the Annex), who engaged actively and raised
their voices under the Chatham House Rule, enriching our
discussions with diverse perspectives.

Our thanks go to the entire team at the Center for the Governance of
Change, besides three of its members who are co-authoring this
report: Carlos Luca de Tena, Alejandro Roche, Drew Johnson, Irene
Pujol, Lourdes Zurdo, Violeta Ruiz, and former members Paula Borges
and Paula Martinez. Their dedication was essential for making this
project a success.

Finally, we acknowledge the contributions of The Governance of

Change Club, a self-governed student group that played a key role in
data collection during the summit. Our thanks go to Maïa Espinosa,
Tomás Lucero, Sam Ferdinand, Darina Vasileva, Sebastian Oertel, Leia
Gonzalez-Lee and Ajinkya Deshpande.

41
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16 Ibid.

17 Draghi, M. (2024). “The future of European competitiveness Part B | In-depth analysis and
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ec1409c1-d4b4-4882-8bdd-3519f86bbb92_en
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18 Ibid, p.81.

19 Europol (2022). Call for action: urgent plan needed to transition to post-quantum cryptography
together. Europol. https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/call-for-action-urgent-
plan-needed-to-transition-to-post-quantum-cryptography-together

20 Fay, J. (2025). Will quantum computers disrupt critical infrastructure? - BBC https://www.bbc.com/
news/articles/cpq9zxxn72qo

21 Europol (2022). Call for action: urgent plan needed to transition to post-quantum cryptography
together. Europol. https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/call-for-action-urgent-
plan-needed-to-transition-to-post-quantum-cryptography-together

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24 Ibid.

42
Today’s World

Driven by Tomorrow’s Tech

March 2025