Structured What-If Technique as a Risk Assessment Tool
The structured what-if technique, SWIFT, is a high-level and less
formal risk identification technique that can be used independently, or as part of a
staged approach to make bottom-up methods such as FMEA more efficient.
SWIFT uses structured brainstorming in a facilitated workshop where a
predetermined set of guidewords (timing, amount, etc.) are combined with prompts
elicited from participants that often begin with phrases such as “what if?” or “how
could?”.
At the heart of a SWIFT is a list of guidewords to enable a comprehensive review
of risks or sources of risk. At the start of the workshop the context, scope and
purpose of the SWIFT is discussed and criteria for success articulated. Using the
guidewords and “what if?” prompts, the facilitator asks the participants to raise and
discuss issues such as:
known risks
risk sources and drivers
previous experience, successes and incidents
known and existing controls
regulatory requirements and constraints
The list of guidewords is utilized by the facilitator to monitor the discussion and to
suggest additional issues and scenarios for the team to discuss. The team considers
whether controls are adequate and if not considers potential treatments. During this
discussion, further “what if?” questions are posed.
Often the list of risks generated can be used to fuel a qualitative or semi-
quantitative risk assessment method, such as an FMEA is.
A SWIFT Analysis allows participants to look at the system response
to problems rather than just examining the consequences of component failure. As
such, it can be used to identify opportunities for improvement of processes and
systems and generally can be used to identify actions that lead to and enhance their
probabilities of success.
What-If Analysis
What–If Analysis is a structured brainstorming method of determining what things
can go wrong and judging the likelihood and consequences of those situations
occurring. The answers to these questions form the basis for making judgments
regarding the acceptability of those risks and determining a recommended course
of action for those risks judged to be unacceptable. An experienced review team
can effectively and productively discern major issues concerning a process or
system. Lead by an energetic and focused facilitator, each member of the review
team participates in assessing what can go wrong based on their past experiences
and knowledge of similar situations.
What If? Answer Likelihood Severity Recommendations
What would
What could How Consequence What will we do about them
happen if it
go wrong? likely? s Again – prevent and monitor
did?
What-If Analysis
Steps in a SWIFT Analysis
SWIFT Risk Assessment
1. Prepare the guide words: The facilitator should select a set of guide words to
be used in the SWIFT.
2. Assemble the team: Select participants for the SWIFT workshop based on
their knowledge of the system/process being assessed and the degree to which
they represent the full range of stakeholder groups.
3. Background: Describe the trigger for the SWIFT (e.g., a regulatory change,
an adverse event, etc.).
4. Articulate the purpose: Clearly explain the purpose to be served by the
SWIFT (e.g., to improve effectiveness of the process).
5. Define the requirements: Articulate the criteria for success
6. Describe the system: Provide appropriate-level textual and graphical
descriptions of the system or process to be risk assessed. A clear understanding
is necessary and can be is established through interviews, gathering a
multifunctional team and through the study of documents, plans and other
records. Normally the
7. Identify the risks/hazards: This is where the structured what-if technique is
applied. Use the guide words/headings with each system, high-level
subsystem, or process step in turn. Participants should use prompts starting
with the phrases like “What if…” or “How could…” to elicit potential
risks/hazards associated with the guide word. For instance, if the process is
“Receipt of samples,” and the guide word is “time, timing or speed,” prompts
might include: “What if the sample is delivered at a shift change” (wrong time)
or “How could the sample be left waiting too long in ambient conditions?”
(wrong timing).
8. Assess the risks: With the use of either a generic approach or a supporting risk
analysis technique, estimate the risk associated with the identified hazards. In
light of existing controls, assess the likelihood that they could lead to harm and
the severity of harm they might cause. Evaluate the acceptability of these risk
levels, and identify any aspects of the system that may require more detailed
risk identification and analysis.
9. Propose actions: Propose risk control action plans to reduce the identified
risks to an acceptable level.
10.Review the process: Determine whether the SWIFT met its objectives, or
whether a more detailed risk assessment is required for some parts of the
system.
11.Document: Produce an overview document to communicate the results of the
SWIFT.
12.Additional risk assessment: Conduct additional risk assessments using more
detailed or quantitative techniques, if required. The SWIFT Analysis is really
effective as a filtering mechanism to focus effort on the most valuable areas.
Guideword Examples
The facilitator and process owner can choose any guide words that seem
appropriate. Guidewords usually stem around:
Wrong: Person or people
Wrong: Place, location, site, or environment
Wrong: Thing or things
Wrong: Idea, information, or understanding
Wrong: Time, timing, or speed
Wrong: Process
Wrong: Amount
Failure: Control or Detection
Failure: Equipment
If your organization has invested time to create root cause categories and sub-
categories, the guidewords can easily start there.
