FM CH 2
FM CH 2
(1) Comparing firm’s performance with that of other firms in the same
industry and (2) evaluating trends in the firm’s financial position over time.
This study helps management identify deficiencies and then take action to
improve performance. In this chapter, we focus on how financial managers
(and investors) evaluate a firm’s current financial position. Then, in the
remaining chapters, we examine the types of actions management can take
to improve future performance and thus increase its stock price.
This section should, for the most part, be a review of concepts you learned in
accounting. However, accounting focuses on how financial statements are
made, whereas our focus is on how they are used by management to
improve the firm’s performance and by investors when they set values on
the firm’s stock and bonds.
Financial Analysis
Financial statements report both on a firm’s financial position at a point in
time and on its operations over some past periods. However, the real value
of financial statements lies in the fact that they can be used to help predict
future earnings and dividends. From an investor’s stand point, predicting the
future is what financial statement analysis is all about, while from
management stand point, financial statement analysis is useful both to help
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anticipate future conditions and, more important, as a starting point for
planning actions that will improve the firm’s future performance.
Financial ratios are designed to help one evaluate a financial statement. For
example, consider the following data:
Debt Interest
Firm A $5,248,760 $419,900
Firm B 52,647,980 3,948,600
Which company is stronger? The burden of these debts, and the companies’
ability to repay them, can best be evaluated by:
(1) comparing each firm’s debt to its assets and
(2) comparing the interest it must pay to the income it has available
for
payments of interest.
Such comparisons are made by ratio analysis.
Trade creditors are interested in the firm’s ability to meet their claims over
a very short period of time and therefore their main concern is liquidity
position. Suppliers of long-term debt, on other hand, are concerned with
the firm’s long-term solvency and survival. They basically analyze the firm’s
profitability over time, its ability to generate cash to pay interest and repay
principal and the relationship between various sources of funds (capital
structure relationships). Long term creditors do analyze the historical
financial statements, but they place more emphasis on the firm’s projected,
or pro forma, financial statements to make analysis about its future solvency
and profitability.
Investors are more concerned about the firm’s earnings. They concentrate
on the analysis of the firm’s financial structure to the extent it influences the
firm’s present and future profitability. They are also interested in the firm’s
financial structure to the extent it influences the firm’s earning ability and
risk. Management is interested in every aspect of the financial analysis. It is
their overall responsibility to see that the resources of the firm are used
most efficiently and effectively and that firm’s financial condition is sound.
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2.1 Purposes of Financial Analysis
Ratios are highly important profit tools in financial analysis that help financial
analysts implement plans that improve profitability, liquidity, financial
structure, reordering, leverage, and interest coverage. Although ratios report
mostly on past performances, they can be predictive too, and provide lead
indications of potential problem areas.
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2.2 Types of Analysis (Approaches)
It is comparing ratios of the one firm with selected firms in the industry at
the same point in time, basically with competitors having similar operations.
This kind of comparison indicates the relative financial position and
performance of the firm.
c) Industrial analysis
This analysis compares its ratio with average ratios of the industry of which
the firm is member. It helps to ascertain the financial standing and capability
of the firm vis-à-vis other firms in the industry. The practical difficulty
involved in this analysis is the following:
1. It is difficult to get average ratios for the industry.
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2. Even if the averages are available, they are averages of the ratios of
strong
and weak firms and might be meaningless especially if firms within
the
same industry widely differ in their accounting policies and practices.
This is using future ratios as the standard of comparison. These future ratios
can be developed from the projected or pro forma financial statement. The
comparison of current or past ratios with future ratio show the firm’s relative
strength and weaknesses in the past and the future. If the future ratios
indicate weak financial position, corrective actions should be initiated.
A liquid asset is one that trades in an active market and hence can be
quickly converted to cash at the going market price, and a firm’s “liquidity
position” deals with this question: Will the firm be able to payoff its debts as
they come due over the next year or so? A full liquidity analysis requires the
use of cash budgets, but by relating the amount of cash and other current
assets to current obligations, ratio analysis provides a quick, easy-to-use
measure of liquidity. Three commonly used liquidity ratios are discussed in
this section.
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Current assets normally include cash, marketable securities, accounts
receivable, and inventories. Current liabilities consist of accounts payable,
notes payable, current maturities of long term debt, accrued taxes, and
other accrued expenses (principally wages).
1:1 current ratio, for example, means; the company has $1 in current assets
to cover each $1 in current liabilities. Look for a current ratio above 1:1 and
as close to 2:1 as possible. When the current ratio significantly high it would
indicate also that the firm is inefficient in using its cash and other short term
assets. Generally short term creditors prefer higher current ratios because it
assures them liquidity. It has to be noted that however a lower current ratio
might not be a bad sign for a company with a large reserve of untapped
borrowing power.
Allied’s current ratio is well below the average for its industry, 2.3, so its
liquidity position is relatively weak. Still, since current assets are scheduled
to be converted to cash in the near future, it is highly probable that they
could be liquidated at close to their stated value.
The problem with the current ratio is that it ignores timing of cash received
and paid out. For example, if all the bills are due this week, and inventory is
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the only current asset, but won’t be sold until the end of the month, the
current ratio tells very little about the company’s ability to survive.
Quick ratio is the ratio between all assets quickly convertible into cash and
all current liabilities. Specifically excludes inventory. Also known as the “acid
test.” This ratio specifies whether your current assets that could be quickly
converted into cash are sufficient to cover current liabilities. Thus, the quick
ratio is a more conservative measure of liquidity. A firm that had additional
sufficient quick assets available to creditors was believed to be in sound
financial condition. The quick ratio assumes that all assets are of equal
liquidity. Receivables are one step closer to liquidity than inventory.
Inventories are typically the least liquid of a firm’s current assets; hence they
are the assets on which losses are most likely to occur in the event of
liquidation. Therefore, a measure of the firm’s ability to payoff short-term
obligation without relying on the sale of inventories is important.
Quick ratio indicates the extent to which you could pay current liabilities
without relying on the sale of inventory – how quickly you can pay your bills.
Generally, a ratio of 1:1 is good and indicates you don’t have to rely on the
sale of inventory to pay the bills.
The industry average quick ratio is 1.2, so Allied’s 0.76 ratio is low in
comparison with other firms in its industry. Still, if the accounts receivable
can be collected, the company can payoff its current liabilities without
having to liquidate its inventory.
Although a little better than the current ratio, the quick ratio still ignores
timing of receipts and payments.
The crucial assumption behind this ratio is that a firm’s accounts receivable
will be converted into cash with the normal collection period with little
shrinkage or within the period of time for which credit was initially granted.
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An analyst who doubts the liquidity of a firm’s receivables can prepare an
aging schedule and adjust the ratio downward if a significant percentage of a
firm’s receivables are long past due and have not been written off as losses.
The adjustment process is to reduce accounts outstanding over the normal
collection period. This is possible only for internal analyst because the data
required to prepare an aging schedule are primarily for internal analyst.
This ratio is sometimes referred as cash ratio. Since cash is the most liquid
assets it is employed for examining the liquidity of the firm. It is a
subsequent innovation in ratio analyst; the Absolute Liquidity Ratio
eliminates any unknown surrounding receivables. The Absolute Liquidity
Ratio any tests short – term liquidity in terms of cash and marketable
securities.
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The ratio of total debt to total assets, generally called the debt ratio,
measures the percentage of funds provided by creditors:
Allied’s debt ratio is 54%, which means that its creditors have supplied more
than half of the total financing. There are a variety of factors determine a
company’s optimal debt ratio. Nevertheless, the fact that Allied’s debt ratio
exceeds the industry average raises a red fag and may make it costly for
Allied to borrow additional funds without first raising more equity capital.
Creditors may be reluctant to lend the firm more money, and management
would probably be subjecting the firm to the risk of bankruptcy if it sought to
increase the debt ratio any further by borrowing additional funds.
The TIE ratio measures the extent to which operating income can decline
before the firm is unable to meet its annual interest costs. Failure to meet
this obligation can bring legal action by the firm’s creditors, possibly
resulting in bankruptcy. Note that earnings before interest and taxes, rather
than net income, are used in the numerator. Because interest is paid with
pre-tax dollars, the firm’s ability to pay current interest is not affected by
taxes.
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TIE Ratio = EBIT = 980 = 4.67 times
Interest Charges 210
Industry average = 6 times.
Since the industry average is 6 times, Allied is covering its interest charges
by a relatively low margin of safety. Thus, the TIE ratio reinforces the
conclusion from our analysis of the debt ratio that Allied would face
difficulties if it attempted to borrow additional funds.
These ratios are designed to answer this question: Does the total amount of
each type of assets as reported on the balance sheet seem reasonable, too
high, or too low in view of current and projected sales levels?
When they acquire assets, Allied and other companies must borrow or obtain
capital from other sources. If a firm has too many assets, its cost of capital
will be too high; hence its profits will be depressed. On the other hand, if
assets are too low, profitable sales will be lost. Ratios that analyze the
different types of assets are described in this section.
Inventory turnover ratio shows how rapidly the inventory is turning into
receivables through sales. It is given by the following formula.
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A problem arises in calculating and analyzing the inventory turnover ratio in
this second way. Sales are stated at market prices, so if inventories are
carried at cost, as they generally are, the calculated turnover overstates the
true turnover ratio. Therefore, it would be more appropriate to use cost of
goods sold in place of sales in the formula’s numerator.
For Allied Co. its inventory turnover ratio can be computed as follows:
ITO Ratio = Sales = 8250 = 3.7 times
Avg. inventory 2225
Days sales outstanding (DSO), also called the “average collection period
(ACP)”, is used to appraise accounts receivable. It is average number of days
an account receivables remain outstanding. It tells us how many days of
sales are tied up in receivables. The greater the ratio than the average of the
industry mean the firm allocated a greater proportion of total resources to
receivable than the average firm in the industry.
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Thus, the DSO represents the average length of time that the firm must wait
after making a sale before receiving cash, which is the average collection
period.
Allied has 77 days sales outstanding, well above the 63-days industry
average
DSO = Receivables = 1760 = 76.80 days
Avg. sales per day 8250/360
The DSO can also be evaluated by comparison with the terms on which the
firm sells its goods. For example, Allied’s sales terms call for payment within
60 days, so the fact that 77 days’ sales, not 60 days’, are outstanding
indicates that customers, on the average, are not paying their bills on time.
This deprives Allied of funds that it could use to invest in productive assets.
Moreover, in some instances the fact that a customer is paying late may
signal that the customer is in financial trouble, in which case Allied may have
a hard time ever collecting the receivable.
This ratio indicates the extent to which a firm is using existing property,
plant, and equipment to generate sales. It is the ratio of sales to net fixed
assets.
Allied’s ratio of 2.76 times is equal to the industry average, indicating that
the firm is using its fixed assets about as intensively as are other firms in its
industry. Therefore, Allied seems to have about the right amount of fixed
assets, in relation to other firms.
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The final asset management ratio, the total assets turnover ratio, measures
the turnover of all the firm’s assets. It indicates how effectively firm uses its
total resources to generate sales and is a summary measure influenced by
each of the asset management ratio discussed previously.
Allied’s ratio is somewhat below the industry average, indicating that the
company is not generating a sufficient volume of business given its total
asset investment. Sales should be increased, some assets should be
disposed of, or a combination of these steps should be taken.
D. PROFITABILITY RATIOS
Profitability is the net result of a number of policies and decisions. The ratios
examined thus far provide useful clues as to the effectiveness of a firm’s
operations, but the profitability ratios show the combined effects of liquidity,
asset management, and debt on operating results.
The profit margin on sales, calculated by dividing net income by sales, gives
the profit per dollar of sales:
Industry average = 6%
Allied’s profit margin is below the industry average of 6%. This sub-par result
occurs because costs are too high. High costs, in turn, generally occur
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because of inefficient operations. However, Allied’s low profit margin is also a
result of its heavy use of debt. Recall that net income is income after
interest. Therefore, if two firms have identical operations in the sense that
their sales, operating costs, and EBIT are the same, but if one firm uses more
debt than the other, it will have higher interest charges. Those interest
charges will pull net income down, and since sales are constant, the result
will be a relatively low profit margin.
In such a case, the low profit margin would not indicate an operating
problem, just a difference in financing strategies. Thus, the firm with the low
profit margin might end up with a higher rate of return on its stockholders’
investment due to its use of financial leverage. We will see exactly how profit
margins and the use of debt interact to affect stockholder returns shortly,
when we examine the Du Pont model.
BEP ratio indicates the ability of the firm’s assets to generate operating
income. The basic earning power (BEP) ratio is calculated by dividing
earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by total assets.
BEP = EBIT
Total Assets
This ratio shows the earning power of the firm’s assets, before the influances
of taxes and leverage, and it is useful for comparing firms with different tax
situations and different degrees of financial leverage. Because of its low
turnover ratios and low profit margin on sales, Allied is not getting as high a
return on its assets as other firms in the industry.
The ratio of net income to total assets measures the return on total asset
(ROA)
after interest and taxes:
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Net income available to
ROA = common stockholders
Total Assets
Allied’s 5.77% return is well below the 9% average for the industry. This low
return results from (1) the company’s low basic earning power plus (2) high
interest costs resulting from its above-average use of debt, both of which
cause its net income to be relatively low.
Ultimately, the most important, or “bottom line,” accounting ratio is the ratio
of net income to common equity, which measures the return on common
equity (ROE).
A final group of ratios, the market value ratios, relates the firm’s stock price
to its earnings, cash flow, and book value per share. These ratios give
management an indication of what investors think of the company’s past
performance and future prospects. If the liquidity, asset management, debt
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management, and profitability ratios all look good, then the market value
ratios will be high, and the stock price will probably be as high as can be
expected.
The price/earnings (P/E) ratio shows how much investors are willing to pay
per dollar of reported profits.
P/E ratio = Price per share
Earnings per share (EPS)
Allied’s stock sells for $47.5, so with an EPS of 3.94 its P/E ratio is 12.05:
P/E ratio = Price per share = $47.5 = 12.05 times
EPS $3.94
Industry average = 13.5 times.
P/E ratios are higher for firms with strong growth prospects, other things held
constant. But they are lower for riskier firms. Since Allied’s P/E ratio is below
the average for other firms in the industry, this suggests that the company is
regarded as being somewhat riskier than most, as having poorer growth
prospects, or both.
The ratio of a stock’s market price to its book value gives another indication
of how investors regard the company. Companies with relatively high rates
of return on equity generally sell at higher multiples of book value than those
with low returns.
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Investors are willing to pay less for a dollar of Allied’s book value than other
firms in the industry.
The profit times the total assets turnover is called the Du Pont equation. Du
Pont equation is a formula, which shows that the rate of return on assets can
be found as the product of the profit margin times the total assets turnover.
Du Pont equation gives the rate of return on assets (ROA):
ROA = Profit margin x Total assets turnover
= Net Income = Sales
Sales Total Assets
= 4.97% X 1.16 = 5.765%
Allied made 4.97% on each dollar of sales, and assets were “turned over”
1.16 times during the year. Therefore, the company earned a return of
5.76% on its assets.
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