International Journal of Applied Science and Engineering Review

ISSN: 2582-6271

Vol.2 No.4; July-Aug 2021

EXPLORATION IN RISK MANAGEMENT IN PRIMAVERA RISK ANALYSIS FOR

CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

Dr. K. Yogeswari1 and Moinuddin H2

1
Associate Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering in B.S.A.Crescent Institute of Science and Technology,
Vandalur, Chennai
2
B.S.A. Crescent Institute of Science and Technology, Vandalur, Chennai

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52267/IJASER.2021.2405

ABSTRACT
Construction projects are facing several risks that and have negative effects on the project such as time, cost
& quality. Risk management is an important field of the construction industry. Many companies often
establish a risk management procedure in their projects for improving performance and increase profits. No
project is free from risks. The accomplishment of project success in the construction industry mainly depends
upon the level of risk. The main objective of the project is to identify the risk and provide the best solutions
using primavera risk analysis software. This study investigates risk-related responsibilities for the client,
architect & contractor. Some of the risks determined in the project are defective design, financial issues, delay
in permitting, availability of drawings, changes in codes & drawing changes in the scope of work, payment
delay, accidents during construction. The next goal is to identify risk management techniques in the
construction industry. The whole process of identification and mitigation is termed risk management. In
Construction projects are concerned with the utilization of skills, tools, techniques, and knowledge about the
activities of projects. Management of risk is examined to be the most important part of the execution in
construction management. This study has taken a real-time schedule from the construction industry and have
implemented the identified risk factors according to risk ranking from the questionnaire survey in construction
industry. Based on the risk ranking, a risk model is created in the Primavera risk analysis software for
qualitative and quantitative risk. The risk model will generate risk scoring and a risk matrix. Based on this,
the schedule to mitigate risk will be generated. We can control the risk in software and an updated risk plan
will be given to managers in the construction industry to manage risk more efficiently. It may be concluded
that the most significant risks must be managed with greater effort to reduce or eliminate their effects on the
project.

KEYWORDS: Risk Analysis, Risk Management, Primavera Risk Analysis, Risk Scoring, Risk matrix

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 GENERAL
The risk has become a part of our day to today life. One such area is the construction industry. Projects
within the construction sector are categorized as fragmented, temporary & complex which brings upon
risk exposure. Risk can be described as the likelihood of an event multiplied by its extent. A risk
management plan will aid a construction industry to consider the various risks before they happen and
reduce their influence on the project. The benefits of risk management are to provide good labour
conditions and to protects from events that will cause damage to both the company and the environment.

1.2 STRATEGIES AND PROCESS

Risk Management involves the procedure of conducting risk planning, risk identification, risk analysis,
and observe risk on a project. Risk management aims to optimize time, cost, and quality

The Project Risk Management processes are:

Plan Risk Management— The risk management plan is important in the construction industry. It helps to
optimize risk in construction projects. There are several tool and techniques to plan risk more efficiently
that describes how risk ` activities will be performed.

Identify Risks— Risk is identified based on practices in the construction industry so that project managers
are listed out based on previous project experience. Based on the study we have identified some risks are
defective design, financial issues, delay in permitting, availability of drawings, changes in codes &
drawing changes in the scope of work, payment delay, accidents during construction, and cost overrun in
project

Plan Risk Responses— A risk management plan is prepared based on the outcome of a questionaries-
based survey in the construction project.

Perform Qualitative & Quantitative Risk Analysis— After the risk management plan is laid out, we have
to identify risk & rank according to its priority based on the questionnaire survey in the construction
projects. The major risk is identified by performing quantitative and qualitative methods like probability
branching, primavera risk analysis tools, etc

Implement Risk Responses—It is the process of executing risk responses using various tools and
techniques.

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Monitor Risks—The above-identified risk are monitored throughout the project for project managers to
run project effectively

1.3 RISK APPROACH

Below are the various risk approaches
Risk Avoidance- Risk avoidance is to get rid of the risk by using previous risk analysis from several
completed projects.
Risk Reduction- While planning and designing the project we can brainstorm with a client, architect,
project managers, structural designer and reduce the risk before the implementation of the project
Risk Transfer- Risk can be transferred to the third party and transfer the ownership to bear the risk by
agreement, warranties& bonds.
Risk Acceptance- Risk acceptance involves embracing the risk. It can be categorized into active and
passive Active: Risk can be predicted and prompt action can be taken by management using time and
resources so the risk could be mitigated in the initial stage. Passive: This involves a realization of risk
after its occurrence. So, we have to accept the risk, bear the loss and solve accordingly.

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 LITERATURE STUDY – NATIONAL SCENARIO
Patel Ankit Mahendra, (2013) Risks have a vital impact on construction comes in a phrase of it.
Construction comes that area unit tangled in nature, unpredictability & risks from a different origin. After
the risk is found, assessment is performed qualitatively and quantitatively, response with an appropriate
technique for handling risks, so management the risks by examination. It is based on risk management
practices and provides the best solutions

A. Suchith Reddy (2015) has inspected risk and its outcome within the construction field and also the
process needed for risk management. The outcome of risk is evaluated in the project and the various tools
and strategies applied to manage risk in the construction industry.

Chaitali S. Pawar et al. (2015) The risks in the construction industry have been predictable as a vital
management procedure to accomplish the project goal in terms of price, time, scope, and quality.
Qualitative risk analysis finds out the importance of trot elaborate risks. It provides a quick and distinct
illustration of risk.. the chance assessment matrix is framed in line with the collision of risks on consumer
& contractor as a result of each section of the contract could also be re- modulated study recommended a
couple of ideas to moderate construction project risks.

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Srinivas. K (2015) examined a study on risk assessment ranking reports on infrastructure enhancements
within the Indian industry. Risk management may be a proactive technique to get the complete edges of
the necessary programs that are initiated in each enterprise. The appliance of higher risk management
practices aims to attain a full profit. The analysis was performed out for the chosen project by considering
half-dozen doable risks in numerous phases of the project, that square measure capable of inflicting AN
unnecessary lag within the completion of the project. various factors of the intense risks listed and
supported the feedback obtained from the participants and also the RSI was firm for every of the 35 risk
factors and a building project is subjected to risk and mitigating steps have to be compelled to be taken to
scale back the chance impact to a manageable level if the threats tend to be uncontrollable.

Danish Ali et al. (2016) Once risk is located, a quantitative or qualitative assessment of risk is carried out
and the best process to handle risk is chosen. A survey is conducted among the person to develop and
mitigate risk

2.3 LITERATURE STUDY - INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO

Ekaterina Osipova (2008) The analysis focuses to consider risk management within the different
procurement options. The study has addressed various construction projects performed in Sverige and it
includes a form survey and a series of interrogation with different stakeholders in the construction field.
The outcomes of it show a scarcity of a repetitive approach to risk management, which may be a deficiency
in current procurement practices.

Nerija Banaitiene et al. (2012) The construction industries are affecting unemployment and monetary loss.
This has led to a change in the behavior of the clients and construction companies. This leads to upgrade
quality, performance, and reduce price, and the need for project methodologies and management that can
constructively manage project risk. This paper illustrates the research in Lithuania’s construction projects
that aim to analyze the risk analysis and risk management process

Shahid IQBAL et al. (2014). This research is established on the discovery of a questionnaire-based survey
on risk management in construction in West Pakistan. 2 kinds of risk management methods are analyzed
preventive approach and remedial approach of risk in the project. The study uncovers those

monetary problems, a mishap on-site, and faulty style area units are major risks. The study facilitates the
preparation of a schedule and smart coordination to facilitate managers to target vital areas in the project
and reduce risk

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CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Every project has its own set of hazards that could have an impact on the project. These risks are addressed
by project risk management methods. A personal project risk is an uncertain event or situation that has a
positive or negative impact on project objectives. Scope definition, a demand for definition, estimations,
assumptions, and technical approach are all examples of technical risk. Project management, portfolio
management, operations management, organization, resourcing, and communication are all examples of
management risk. Written agreement terms and conditions, suppliers, vendors, subcontracts, and
consumer stability are all examples of industrial risk. Regulations, exchange rates, laws of competition,
legislation, and sites are all examples of external risks. The goal of risk management is to identify and
manage risks in a project. These hazards have the potential to cause the project to depart from its original
plan and fail to meet the project's goals. Because risks might arise at any time during the project, Project
Risk Management responsibilities should be completed in stages. As a result, because each project is
unique, it's vital to adjust the Project Risk Management strategy in accordance with the project's size,
complexity, importance, and approach.

3.2 AIM
The overall aim is to extend the understanding of risk management using primavera risk analysis software
and to enhance the standard of future construction industry

3.3 OBJECTIVE
The objective of the project is to spot the risks in construction comes.
• To analysis risk and to rank risk using primavera risk analysis software
• To Provide Risk Management Plan for construction industry to manage risks more efficiently.

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3.4 METHODOLOGY

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CHAPTER 4

DATA COLLECTION AND RISK RANKING

4.1 INTRODUCTION
The client or project manager should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality in the

interview setting to encourage honest and unbiased assessments. Data analysis methods that can be used
during this qualitative risk analysis include Risk data quality assessment, Risk probability & impact
assessment & Assessment of other risk parameters. Various types of risk in construction are identified and
categorized in a specified format for analysis. The risk is ranked on a scale of 1-5 in which 5 is a very high
risk. Data collection is to be done from various construction industries using the questionnaire-based
survey. Based on this risk ranking, a risk management plan has to be done. Based on the results of the
quantitative and quantitative risk analysis recommendations, it will form inputs to the Plan Risk
Responses. Data analysis methods that can be used to select a preferred risk response strategy include
Alternative’s analysis and Cost-benefit analysis. Risks should be reviewed, which policies and procedures
should be followed, the roles and responsibilities in the monitoring process, and reporting formats. Using
all the above results we have to monitor and manage the risk effectively.

4.2 STRATEGY OF DATA COLLECTION

In this project, from the construction industry data is collected. Using questionaries survey. The data is
collected from project managers, architects, and clients in the construction industry. The questionnaire
survey involved 30 risk factors in various project management aspects like scope, schedule, budget,
design, & quality.

Questionnaire survey is presented both personally and using google form to client, architect, and
contractor in the construction industry

4.3 RESPONSES OF QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY

The questionnaire survey which was presented to the various client, architect, and contractor are
accumulated in the google form. From this, a catalogue of responses is identified. Questionnaire survey
has 33 responses from different locations of which the majority are from Chennai and Bangalore.

After receiving the response from the different companies, a response rate is determined whether there is
an impact of risk on the project which affects the project schedule and the cost of the project.

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FIGURE 4.4.1: PROJECT TYPE PERCENTAGE

Figure 4.4.1 represent the project type percentage of questionnaire survey. In this 56.7% are residential
projects, 16.7% are commercial projects, 20 % are industry projects and the remaining are from
institutional & other projects.

FIGURE 4.4.2: STAKEHOLDER PERCENTAGE

Figure 4.4.2 represent the stakeholder percentage results conducted from the questionnaire survey of
which 40% are contractor,36.7% are the client and 23.3% are an architect

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4.5 RISK RANKING INVESTIGATION

I present the questionnaire survey to various respondents to indicate their perception of the significance
of each risk using the Likert Scale (1-5) .1” for the lowest risk and “5” for the highest risk. The collated
responses are used for identifying risk ranking. The overall responses are categorized for each risk factor
as very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, and very low risk.

4.5 RANKING RISKS BASED ON RESPONSE OF QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY

Identified Risks Risk Ranking

Risk of Bad Quality Material Very High

Inaccurate Estimation of
High
Quantities Work

Cost Over Run in Project High

Poor Competence & Productivity

High
of Labour

Poor Coordination with Sub

High
Contactor

Risk of Natural Disaster/Weather

High
Condition

Inadequacy of Insurance High

Poor Performance of Sub

High
Contractor

Risk of Funding Problems for

Medium
project

Payment Delay Medium

Changes in Scope of Work Medium

Delay in Availability of
Medium
Drawings

Risk of Changes in Design or

Medium
Drawings

Delays Due to lack of availability

Medium
of Utilities

Third Party Delays Medium

Risk of Delay in Material Medium

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Risk of Labour Medium

Risk of labour Disputes & Strikes Medium

Risk of Materials Availability Medium

Accident/Safety During
Medium
Construction

Material & Manual Handling Medium

Risk of Insufficient Technology Medium

Delay Due to Dispute with Medium

Contractor
Risk of Equipment availability Medium

Risk of Bad Quality Equipment Medium

Inappropriate Risk Allocation in Low

Contract
Lack of Qualified Staff Low

Shortage of Plant Equipment Low

Improper Scope of work definition Low

in contract
Theft/Robbery of Material at Site Very Low

CHAPTER 5

RISK ANALYSIS USING PRIMAVERA RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

5.1 INTRODUCTION
Primavera Risk Analysis is a powerful risk management software. It allows stakeholders to identify and
quantify project risk, as well as define project schedules and budgets, by comparing different mitigation
options with a new degree of confidence and control over budgets. Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) is a
popular technique for measuring the risk of your project schedules. PRA is used to validate schedules and
incorporate your risk models with fully formed risk events into your risk models. The tools in PRA allow
you to create a completely risk-affected plan. Primavera Risk Analysis, from Oracle, is a comprehensive
lifecycle risk analytics solution that includes cost and schedule risk management. Primavera Risk Analysis
offers a thorough method for establishing project success confidence levels, as well as quick and easy
methods for creating contingency and risk response strategies. PRA provides a risk management plan for
the construction industry to manage risks more efficiently.

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5.2 STRATEGY OF PRIMAVERA RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

I Have taken a real-time schedule from the construction industry and have implemented the identified risk
factors according to risk ranking from the questionnaire survey in construction industry. From the risk
ranking, I have to develop a risk model or risk register in the software for analyzing the risk qualitative
and quantitative. The risk model will generate risk scoring and a risk matrix. Based on this, the schedule
to mitigate risk will be generated. We can control the risk in software and an updated risk plan will be
given to managers in the construction industry to manage risk more efficiently.

5.3 METHODOLOGY

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FIGURE 5.3.1 SCHEDULE PREPARATION

The figure 5.3.1 represent preparing the list of activities

5.3 (2) RUN AND CHECK SCHEDULE

The Schedule Check Report examines the project plan for compliance with scheduling best practices as
recognized by the Project Management Institute.
The report lists the following potentially problematic issues and provides links
to the relevant tasks in the schedule:

❑ Constraints
❑ Open-ended tasks
❑ Out-of-sequence updates (broken logic)
❑ Links with lags longer than a user-specified length
❑ Negative lags
❑ Positive lags on finish-to-start links
❑ Start-to-finish links
❑ Lags between tasks with different calendars
❑ Links to and from summary tasks
❑ Invalid duration uncertainty distribution shapes

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Now, you will open a project plan and check the schedule for potential problems. You can run the Schedule
Check Report from the sidebar or from the Reports menu, but when you run it from the sidebar, the report
runs immediately with no opportunity to review or change report options. For that reason, you will use
the Reports menu to access Schedule Check Report options before running the report.

FIGURE 5.3.2.1 RUN AND CHECK SCHEDULE

Before running the risk analysis, we need to run and check the schedule in the check list dialogue box
represented in the figure 5.3.2.1 which includes constraints, negative lags, start to finish links, link to
summary tasks and out of sequence updates.

FIGURE 5.3.2.2 SCHEDULE CHECK REPORT

The figure 5.3.2.2 represents the report generated with 116 tasks and open-ended tasks are 28, finish to
start link 13 etc. If we miss any linking activity, it will generate an error. If no error we can continue to
the next step.

5.3 (3) DEVELOP RISK MODEL USING QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY

Developing a risk model involves estimating the potential impacts of risk on the project and then applying
those impacts to the schedule. Based on company experience, industry statistics, and input from experts,
arrange of duration and is determined for each project task. Risk events that could disrupt the project are

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also anticipated as well as each risk event’s likelihood and potential impact on project cost and duration.
If the project is sensitive to hurricanes, freezing temperatures, or other weather extremes, that is also taken
into account. The risk impact estimates are entered into the appropriate templates, and then Primavera
Risk Analysis applies them to the schedule to build the risk model, also called an impacted risk plan

FIGURE 5.3.3 RISK REGISTER USING QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY

The figure 5.3.3 represents the risk register using questionnaire survey in the construction industry
according to risk in which 30 risk factors are implemented in the risk register.

5.3 (4) RISK MATRIX

The Risk Register has reporting capabilities to help you make better mitigation decisions.

Risk Matrix is a menu item in the Edit menu that allows you to change how risks and their consequences
are rated. You can connect the risks you specified in the Qualitative tab to the appropriate project activities
in the Quantitative tab, then fine-tune their probabilities and impacts. The left window in the Risk View

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shows a list of the risks you've entered into the register, along with their probability, as determined by
your choices in the Pre-Mitigation Probability box on the Qualitative tab. The project tasks are displayed
on the right window, which is also where the risks are mapped. The risk selected in the left window is
mapped to the task when you check a checkbox in front of it.

FIGURE 5.3.4 RISK MATRIX REPORT

Figure 5.3.4 represents the risk matrix report which is generated by implementing risk factors that are in
the risk register.

5.3 (5) RISK SCORING

The Risk Register has reporting capabilities to help you make better mitigation decisions. The risk score
is used to assign an overall rating to a risk based on the project's likelihood and impact thresholds.

The following factors go into determining a Risk Score:

• The project's given Risk Scoring Matrix

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• The scores entered in the allotted Risk Scoring Matrix (Probability and Impact Diagram grid)
• The Risk Scoring Matrix's risk scoring approach has been chosen (Highest Impact, Average
Impact, Average Individual Impact)
• The Probability of Risk

Each risk impact (schedule, cost, and quality, for example) was recorded.
A risk scoring matrix contains probability threshold values, a timetable, cost impact threshold values, and
any other user-defined impact threshold values, all of which are employed in the risk score calculation.
Risk Scoring is a menu item in the Edit menu that allows you to adjust how risks and their consequences
are rated. Show Risk Matrix, found in the View menu, displays a graphic representation of your risks,
both pre- and post-mitigated, to help you see how effective planned mitigation efforts are for each risk at
a glance.

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FIGURE 5.3.5 RISK SCORING REPORT

Figure 5.3.4.2 represents the risk score based on the highest impact.

CHAPTER 6

RESULT & DISCUSSION

6.1 START DATE DISTRIBUTION GRAPH
I have developed a risk register using a questionnaire survey conducted in the construction industry. The
risk matrix and risk scoring are generated based on the inputs; the result is displayed in the start date
distribution graph. Based on the risk analysis, the project team can determine the risk and make changes
in the schedule to reduce or eliminate the risk where necessary and take steps to mitigate adverse risk
impacts that might occur.

FIGURE 6.1 START DATE DISTRIBUTION GRAPH

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Figure 6.1 Represents that the Result showed start date has not impacted hence it has to start on planned
date

6.2 FINISH DATE DISTRIBUTION GRAPH

Figure 6.2 Represents the finish date distribution graph, the finish date of the project is highly impacted
based on inputs of risk factors using a questionnaire survey.
The result is

Based on Statistics Based on Cumulative Frequency

Minimum Date is 19/02/2021 Deterministic 7% is 09/03/2021Maximum Date is 08/06/2021 50% is 03/04/2021

Mean Date is 05/06/2021 80% is 24/04/2021

From the results, risk factors are executed in risk analysis software. In the above result the finish date of
project /schedule is highly impacted. We can modify by taking appropriate steps to mitigate risk and
modify the above statistics to avoid late project delivery.

From the results, risk factors are executed in risk analysis software. In the above result the finish date of
project /schedule is highly impacted. We can modify by taking appropriate steps to mitigate risk and
modify the above statistics to avoid late project delivery.

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6.3 DURATION DISTRIBUTION GRAPH

FIGURE 6.3 DURATION DISTRIBUTION GRAPH

Figure 6.3 Represents duration distribution graph the duration (in weeks) of the project is highly impacted
based on inputs of risk factor using a questionnaire survey.

The Results are

Based on statistics Based on Cumulative frequencyMinimum Duration is 292 weeks Deterministic 7% is 310 weeks Maximum Duration is 401 weeks
50% is 335 weeks
Mean Duration is 338 weeks 80% is 356 weeks

From the results, risk factors are executed in risk analysis software. In the above result the Duration of
project /schedule is highly impacted. We can modify by taking appropriate steps to mitigate risk and
modify the above statistics to avoid late project delivery

CHAPTER 7

RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN

7.1 INTRODUCTION
The risk management strategy outlines project team members and other stakeholders’ roles and
responsibilities for risk management. This data is used to assign owners to risk responses that have been
agreed upon.

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The risk management strategy also establishes the level of detail for the project's risk management
technique. It also defines risk thresholds for the project based on key stakeholders' risk appetite, which
establishes the acceptable target that risk response implementation must meet.

7.2 PROBABILITY SCHEDULE

Primavera can capture start and finish dates for every job in the project that has a high likelihood (e.g.,
80%) during risk analysis. The Gantt Chart can then be used to allocate those dates to each task.
Stakeholder expectations can be managed using P-schedules. While stakeholders are provided the P-
Schedule for the first 80% of the project, project team members can operate with the original, more
aggressive schedule, deterministic schedule.

STEPS FOR A P-SCHEDULE

• To construct a P-Schedule in Primavera Risk Analysis, open a project plan and start a risk analysis. The
P-Schedule will be created using risk analysis choices.

• During the risk analysis, the next step is to record the task's 80 percentile start and finish dates. To
accomplish so, you'll employ hitherto unexplored risk analysis techniques.
• P80 start and finish dates for each job are displayed in new columns placed to the right of the Gantt
Chart following the risk analysis. The Gantt Chart shows the project plan with P80 bars (purple).
• Project team members can use the P80 bars superimposed on the original deterministic timetable to
compare the original project plan to the more realistic P80 plan. However, a fresh schedule and Gantt
Chart can be prepared utilising the P80 dates for presentation to project stakeholders.

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FIGURE 7.1 P80 SCHEDULE

Figure 7.1 represents the impacted risk plan. This plan will assist the managers in the construction industry
to manage the risk efficiently

CHAPTER 8

CONCLUSION
The research helps us to understand the basic concepts of risk management. From the literature study, we
understand many tools and methodologies are used for risk management. Risk management helps the
construction industry to forecast from schedule and cost overrun in projects. Some of the risks we have
discovered are the risk of bad quality material, inaccurate estimation of quantities work, cost overrun, poor
competence & productivity of labour, poor coordination with subcontractor, poor performance of sub-
contractor, and inadequacy of insurance. Through the analysis, we understand that weather and natural
disaster plays the major role of risk in the construction industry which affect the schedule and cost in the
project. Once the risk is determined, the risk factors are considered in the questionnaire survey which is
conducted in construction industries. The outcome of this exercise is to assess the risk ranking and
scrutinize risk-related reliability for clients, architects, and contractors. The risks are collated in primavera
risk analysis software to assess, examine and predict the risk impact on the schedule of the project. A real-
time schedule is fetched from the construction industry and analysed. The impacted risk factors
determined in this research are implemented in the industry schedule and assessed. The assessment enables
us to understand the actual project completion date and estimated completion date. Major risks identified
have played a role and impacted the schedule thus delaying the project completion date the research helps
us to determine the impacted risk and timeline before its occurrence. The risk management plan is prepared
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and shared to project managers. Project managers can determine the impacted risk and project delivery.
This brings out efficient productivity. It also helps in avoiding the cost overrun of the project.

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AUTHORS PROFILE

Moinuddin H is currently pursuing his M.Tech. Degree in Construction Engineering

and Project Management in the B.S.A. Crescent Institute of Science and Technology,
Vandalur, Chennai. He has completed B.Tech. degree in Civil Engineering from
Bharath University, Selaiyur

Dr K.Yogeswari is currently working as an Associate Professor in the Department

of Civil Engineering in B.S.A. Crescent Institute of Science and Technology,
Vandalur, Chennai. She did her Ph.D. in Sustainable planning in B.S.A. Crescent
Institute of Science and Technology, Vandalur Chennai. She has completed her
B.Tech in Civil Engineering and Masters in Town Planning from, School of
planning, Anna University. Till date, she has presented in six international
conferences and published papers in eight Scopus indexed journals.

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