STAT 2301 Introduction to Statistical Analysis August 18, 2021

Mzuzu University
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
STAT 2301- Introduction to Statistical Analysis

Continuous Assessment Test 2

Wednesday, August 18, 2021 Time Allowed: 1 Hour 30 Minutes (18:00 - 19:30 HRS)

INSTRUCTIONS
ˆ Write your name, registration number and programme of study on top of every page of
your answer sheet. Also, indicate whether you are a repeater or not.

ˆ Check that the paper has 5 questions.

ˆ Attempt all questions.

ˆ Show all your working in logical flow and with appropriate notation.

IMPORTANT FORMULAS
1. P (X = x) = nx × px × q n−x ; x = 0, 1, ..., n

e−λ ×λx
2. P (X = x) = x!
−M
(Mx )×(Nn−x )
3. P (X = x) =
(Nn )
 2

4. X̄ ∼ N µ, σn
 
5. P ∼ N π, π(1−π)
n

Question: 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Points: 9 12 6 11 12 50
Score:

QUESTIONS
1. (a) Suppose the probability of an infant developing a disease in any one household 4
is 0.05. Find the probability of at least 3 infants developing the disease in 20
households.
STAT 2301 Introduction to Statistical Analysis August 18, 2021

Solution: This is a binomial distribution with parameters n = 20; p = 0.05;

and q = 0.95.
h i
P (x ≥ 3) = 1 − P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)

h20  
20
 
20 i
0 20−0 1 20−1 2 20−2
= 1− (0.05 )(0.95) + (0.05 )(0.95) + (0.05 )(0.95)
0 1 2
= 1 − (0.3585 + 0.3774 + 0.1887)
= 0.0754

(b) According to a survey, 60% of first-year students at a certain University have per- 5
sonal computers. If a random sample of 180 first-year students is selected from the
University, what is the probability that more than 85 but fewer than 100 have a
personal computer.

Solution:
√ √
p = 0.6, n = 180, µ = np = 180(0.6) = 108, σ = npq = 180 × 0.6 × 0.4 = 6.57267069.

P (85 < X < 100)

P (85 + 0.5 < X < 100 − 0.5) = P (85.5 < X < 99.5)
 85.5 − 108 99.5 − 108 
P √ <Z< √ = P (−3.42 < Z < −1.29) = P (Z < 3.42) − P (Z < 1.29)
43.2 43.2
= 0.9998 − 0.9015
= 0.0983

2. A Sports Scores Hot Line receives, on average, 8 calls per hour requesting the latest
sports scores. For any randomly selected hour, find the probability that the company
will receive
(a) at most 5 calls. 5

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STAT 2301 Introduction to Statistical Analysis August 18, 2021

Solution: This follows Poisson distribution with parameter, λ = 8.

P (X ≤ 5) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X = 5)
80 × e−8 81 × e−8 82 × e−8 83 × e−8 84 × e−8 85 × e−8
= + + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
= 0.0003354626279 + 0.002683701023 + 0.010734804 + 0.028626144
+ 0.057252288 + 0.091603661
= 0.191236061.

(b) 3 or more calls. 4

Solution:
h i
P (X ≥ 3) = 1 − P (X < 3) = 1 − P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
h 80 × e−8 81 × e−8 82 × e−8 i
=1− + +
h 0! 1! 2! i
= 1 − 0.0003354626279 + 0.002683701023 + 0.010734804
= 1 − 0.013753967
= 0.986246032.

(c) exactly 2 calls in a three-hour period. 3

Solution: This follows Poisson distribution with parameter, λ = 3 × 8 = 24.

242 × e−24
P (X = 2) = = 0.00000001087238749 = 1.087 × 10−8 .
2!

3. A youth group has 8 boys and 6 girls. If a slate of 4 officers is selected, find the probability
that exactly
(a) 3 are girls. 2

8
C1 ×6 C3
Solution: P (3 girls) = 14 C
= 0.159840159
4

(b) 2 are girls. 2

8
C2 ×6 C2
Solution: P (2 girls) = 14 C
= 0.419580419
4

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STAT 2301 Introduction to Statistical Analysis August 18, 2021

(c) 4 are boys. 2

8
C4 ×6 C0
Solution: P (4 boys) = 14 C
= 0.069930069
4

4. (a) Suppose that the true unknown proportion of voters who will vote for a third party 6
candidate in the next election is 9%. What is the probability that a poll of 1000
voters will find a sample proportion that differs from the true proportion by more
than 2%.

Solution: we need to find P (p̂ − p > 0.02) or P (p̂ − p < −0.02). We use the
standard normal distribution. Thus,
!
p̂ − p 0.02
P (p̂ − p > 0.02) or P (p̂ − p < −0.02) = 2 × P p pq > p pq
n n
 
0.02
= 2 × P Z > q  = 2 × P (Z > 2.21)
0.09×0.91
1000

From the standard normal distribution table we find that this is 2 × 0.0136 =
0.0272. We conclude that the probability that the poll will be off by more than
2 percentage points is 0.027.

(b) A random sample of 50 observations from a quantitative population produced a

mean of 56.4 and standard deviation, 2.6.
i. Give the best point estimate for the population mean. 2

Solution: The estimate is x̄ = 56.4

ii. Place margin of error on your estimation in (i). 3

r r
σ2 2.62
Solution: Margin of error is ±Zα/2 = ±1.96× = ±0.720683231
n 50

5. (a) In 39 soil samples tested for trace elements, the average amount of copper was 4
found to be 22 milligrams, with a variance of 16 milligrams. Find a 90% confidence
interval for the true mean copper content in the soils from which these samples were
taken.

Solution: The confidence interval is given by

S
x̄ ± Zα/2 × √
n

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STAT 2301 Introduction to Statistical Analysis August 18, 2021

Thus, we have
4
22 ± 1.645 × √ = 22 ± 1.05
39
We have 22 − 1.05 = 20.95 and 22 + 1.05 = 23.05. Therefore, the confidence
interval is 20.95 < µ < 23.05 =⇒ (20.95, 23.05).

(b) An article states that students in a certain university system take 4.5 years, on 8
average, to finish their undergraduate degrees. Suppose you believe that the mean
time is longer. You conduct a survey of 49 students and obtain a sample mean of
5.1 with a sample standard deviation of 1.2. Do the data support your claim at the
1% significance level?

Solution: x̄ = 5.1, s = 1.2, µ = 4.5, n = 49 and α = 0.01

H0 : µ = 4.5 against H1 : µ > 4.5

x̄ − µ 5.1 − 4.5
Test statistic: Z = √ = √ = 3.5
Ŝ/ n 1.2/ 49
Critical value: Zα/2 = 2.326

Conclusion : The value of Z > Zα/2 = 2.326, we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that the average time to complete undergraduate degree is longer than
4.5 years.

END OF QUESTIONS

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