How to Calculate Uncertainty
Quantifying the level of uncertainty in your measurements is a
crucial part of science. No measurement can be perfect, and
understanding the limitations on the precision in your
measurements helps to ensure that you don’t draw unwarranted
conclusions on the basis of them. The basics of determining
uncertainty are quite simple, but combining two uncertain
numbers gets more complicated. The good news is that there
are many simple rules you can follow to adjust your
uncertainties regardless of what calculations you do with the
original numbers.
TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read)
If you’re adding or subtracting quantities with uncertainties, you add the
absolute uncertainties. If you’re multiplying or dividing, you add the relative
uncertainties. If you’re multiplying by a constant factor, you multiply
absolute uncertainties by the same factor, or do nothing to relative
uncertainties. If you’re taking the power of a number with an uncertainty,
you multiply the relative uncertainty by the number in the power.
Estimating the Uncertainty in Measurements
Before you combine or do anything with your uncertainty, you have to
determine the uncertainty in your original measurement. This often
involves some subjective judgment. For example, if you’re measuring the
diameter of a ball with a ruler, you need to think about how precisely you
can really read the measurement. Are you confident you’re measuring from
the edge of the ball? How precisely can you read the ruler? These are the
types of questions you have to ask when estimating uncertainties.
In some cases you can easily estimate the uncertainty. For example, if you
weigh something on a scale that measures down to the nearest 0.1 g, then
you can confidently estimate that there is a ±0.05 g uncertainty in the
measurement. This is because a 1.0 g measurement could really be
anything from 0.95 g (rounded up) to just under 1.05 g (rounded down). In
other cases, you’ll have to estimate it as well as possible on the basis of
several factors.
2.6M
154
Tooth Decay
Tips
Absolute vs. Relative Uncertainties
Quoting your uncertainty in the units of the original measurement – for
Absolute vs. Relative Uncertainties
Quoting your uncertainty in the units of the original measurement – for
example, 1.2 ± 0.1 g or 3.4 ± 0.2 cm – gives the “absolute” uncertainty. In
other words, it explicitly tells you the amount by which the original
measurement could be incorrect. The relative uncertainty gives the
uncertainty as a percentage of the original value. Work this out with:
Relative uncertainty= (absolute uncertainty /best estimate)×100%
So in the example above:
Relative uncertainty=(3.4 cm/0.2 cm)×100%=5.9%
The value can therefore be quoted as 3.4 cm ± 5.9%.
Adding and Subtracting Uncertainties
Work out the total uncertainty when you add or subtract two quantities with
their own uncertainties by adding the absolute uncertainties. For example:
(3.4±0.2 cm)+(2.1±0.1 cm)=(3.4+2.1)±(0.2+0.1) cm=5.5±0.3 cm
(3.4±0.2 cm)−(2.1±0.1 cm)=(3.4−2.1)±(0.2+0.1) cm=1.3±0.3 cm
Multiplying or Dividing Uncertainties
When multiplying or dividing quantities with uncertainties, you add the
relative uncertainties together. For example:
(3.4 cm±5.9%)×(1.5 cm±4.1%)=(3.4×1.5) cm2±(5.9+4.1)%=5.1 cm2±10%
(3.4 cm±5.9%)/(1.7 cm±4.1%)=3.4/1.7±(5.9+4.1)%=2.0±10
Multiplying by a Constant
If you’re multiplying a number with an uncertainty by a constant factor, the
rule varies depending on the type of uncertainty. If you’re using a relative
uncertainty, this stays the same:
(3.4 cm±5.9%)×2=6.8 cm±5.9%
If you’re using absolute uncertainties, you multiply the uncertainty by the
same factor:
(3.4±0.2 cm)×2=(3.4×2)±(0.2×2) cm=6.8±0.4 cm
A Power of an Uncertainty
If you’re taking a power of a value with an uncertainty, you multiply the
relative uncertainty by the number in the power. For example:
(5 cm±5%)2=(52±[2×5%]) cm2=25 cm2±10%
Or
(10 m±3%)3=1,000 m3±(3×3%)=1,000 m3±9%
You follow the same rule for fractional powers.
How to Convert Relative Uncertainty
to Absolute Uncertainty
Uncertainty exists in laboratory measurements even when using the best
equipment. For example, if you measure temperature using a thermometer
with lines every ten degrees, you cannot be absolutely certain if the
temperature is 75 or 76 degrees. Scientists report uncertainty as a range --
plus or minus -- around the reported value, such as 75 degrees Celsius, plus
or minus 2 degrees Celsius. Uncertainty can be expressed as absolute -- in
the units of the measurement -- or relative -- as a fraction of the
measurement.
Find the value of the relative uncertainty for the measurement. This is
listed as a range after the measurement with no units, either as a
decimal fraction or a percent. For example, given a measurement of
14.3 millimeters, plus or minus 5 percent, the relative uncertainty is 5
percent.
Multiply the measurement by the relative uncertainty to obtain the
absolute uncertainty. In this case, multiply 14.3 millimeters by 5
percent, which equals 0.7 millimeters.
Write the measurement in terms of absolute uncertainty, in this case
14.3 millimeters, plus or minus 0.7 millimeters.
Verify the results by dividing the absolute uncertainty by the
measurement. For example, 0.7 millimeters divided by 14.3
millimeters equals 5 percent, which is the original relative
uncertainty.
