Lecture Notes

Basic Probability

Manoj Pandey
Department of Mathematics
Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya,
(M.P)

December 9, 2024
PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

I. Sample Space {(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1),
Definition 1. Here, we recall some definitions. (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)} with n(S) = 12.
H Random Experiment: Any activity that is Example 3. Ball Drawing Experiment without
capable of producing more than one outcome replacement: An urn contains four balls of different
but none of the outcome can be predicted in colors red(R), blue(B), yellow(Y) and white(W),
advance to appear. i.e, there is only one ball of each color. We draw
H Trial: Performing an experiment is a trial. two balls simultaneously without replacement (also
H Sample Space: A set of all possible outcomes order of ball does not matter). The, the sample
of an experiment. Each element of sample space is S = {RB, RY, RW, BY, BW, Y W }, with
space is called a sample point. A sample n(S) = 6.
space is discrete if it consists of a finite or
countable infinite set of outcomes. A sample If the same experiment is done with replacement,
space is continuous if it contains an interval then sample space will contain 16 elements and S =
of real numbers. Intervals are infinite but {RR, RB, RY, RW, BR, BB, BY, BW, Y R, Y B, Y Y,
uncountable sets. Y W, W R, W B, W Y, W W }.
Let us introduce a symbol. If A is any event the Example 4. Attempt Counting Experiment:
Ā = non-occurence of A, i.e, the Ā = not − A and Suppose a CSBS student Mr. X appears in the
P (Ā) = 1 − P (A). prestigious UPSC exam until he get a ‘success’. We
EXERCISE SET-1 count number of attempts until the success. The
sample space in this case would be S = {1, 2, 3, . . . }.
Example 1. Coin Tossing Experiment: If a
single unbiased coin is tossed, then the sample Similarly, suppose a coin is tossed until a
space is S = {H, T } with two elements. head appears. Then, the sample space is S =
1

Similarly, if we toss two unbiased coins (or {H, T H, T T H, T T T H, . . . }. In these examples,

equivalemtly single coin is tossed two times), sample spaces are infinite but countable. It is a
the sample space is S = {HH, HT, T H, T T } discrete type.
with 4 sample points, i.e., n(S) = 4. In case,
we toss three coins, the sample space is S = Example 5. Road Accident Counting Experiment:
{HHH, HHT, HT H, HT T, T HH, T HT, T T H, T T T } Suppose, we count road accident on Bhopal-Indore
with 8 sample points, i.e., n(S) = 8 and so on. In Highway over a certain period (say a period of 100
case, a coin is tossed n times, n(S) = 2n (why?). years). The sample space will be S = {0, 1, 2, 3, . . . }.
Again the sample space is discrete type.
Example 2. Dice Tossing Experiment: Let us now
consider a random toss of an unbiased dice with Let us count number of incoming call in a
six faces. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} telephone exchange over a period of 24 hours. The
with n(S) = 6. If two die are tossed then sam- sample space will be S = {0, 1, 2, 3, . . . }. Compare
ple space is S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), . . . , (6, 6)} with this sample space with the one obtained in example
n(S) = 36. If a coin and dice are tossed to- 4.
gether (the order of coin and dice does not
make any sense), then sample space is S = Example 6. Voltage Measurement Experiment: Let
us choose a lot of some 5A(Ampere) batteries and
1
In mathematics, we are more comfortable with numbers. If connect them with a galvanometer to measure the
representation of possible outcomes Head and Tail by alphabets H electric current that batteries can produce. The
and T does not look mathematical, we may use some numbers such
as 1 for H and 0 for T to represent them. Then the sample space
outcome of the experiment is the current measured
is S = {0, 1}. Such a assignment of numerals to the outcome is by the instrument. The sample space will be
quite discretionary. Some other person may use different numerals
also. S = {i/0 < i < 5} = [0, 5].

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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

This is a continuous sample space having infinitely Example 10. Find the probability of getting a head
many sample points. when a coin is tossed.
Example 7. Molded Plastic Part: Consider an exper- Solution: The sample space is S = {H, T }. Let A
iment in which you select a molded plastic part, such be the event of getting head, i.e., A = {H}, then
as a connector, and measure its thickness. The pos- n(A) 1
sible values for thickness depend on the resolution P (A) = = .
n(S) 2
of the measuring instrument, and they also depend
on upper and lower bounds for thickness. However, Example 11. Two coins are tossed together. Find
it might be convenient to define the sample space the probability of (i) heads on both the coins, (ii)
as simply the positive real line tails on both the coins and (iii) at least one head.

S = R+ = {x/x > 0} = [0, ∞) Solution: The sample space in this case is S =

{HH, HT, T H, T T }. Let A, B and C be the events
because a negative value for thickness cannot occur. of getting heads on both the coins, tails on both the
If it is known that all connectors will be between coins and at least one head respectively, then
10 and 11 millimeters thick, the sample space could
A = {HH}, B = {T T }, C = {HT, T H}.
be
The probabilities are
S = R+ = {x/10 < x < 11} = (10, 11).
1 1 1
P (A) = , P (B) = , P (C) = .
If the objective of the analysis is to consider only 4 4 2
whether a particular part is low, medium, or high Example 12. If three coins are tossed, find the
for thickness, the sample space might be taken to probability of getting at least one head.
be the set of three outcomes:
Solution: The sample space in this case has 23 = 8
S = {low, medium, high} elements, i.e., n(S) = 8. Let A be the event of
getting at least one head, then
If the objective of the analysis is to consider
only whether or not a particular part conforms to A = {HHH, HHT, HT H, T HH, T T H, T HT, HT T }.
the manufacturing specifications, the sample space
Therefore, required probability is P (A) = n(A) = 78 .
might be simplified to the set of two outcomes n(S)

Example 13. What is the chance of throwing a 5

S = {yes, no} with an ordinary die?
that indicate whether or not the part conforms. Solution: The sample space in dice tossing experi-
EXERCISE SET-II ment is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Thus, n(S) = 6. Let A
be the event of throwing a 5, i.e., A = {5}, with
Example 8. If P (A) =2/7 then find P (Ā). n(A) = 1. Thus,
Solution: The probability of Ā is P (Ā) = 1−P (A) = n(A) 1
1 − 27 = 57 . P (A) =
n(S)
= .
6
Example 9. Odds in favour of an event are 3:5. Find Example 14. What is the chance of getting a number
the probability of happening of the event. What is greater than 3 with an ordinary die?
the chance that the event does not occur?
Solution: The sample space is same as in above
Solution: If odds in favour of an event A are a : b, example, i.e., S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} with n(S) = 6.
the probability of A is P (A) = a+ba
and that of Ā The event of getting a number greater than 3 is
is P (A) = a+b . In this case a = 3 and b = 5, so
b A = {4, 5, 6}, with n(A) = 3. Therefore,
the required probabilities are P (A) = 3+5
3
= 38 and n(A) 3 1
P (A) = 3+5 = 8 .
5 5 P (A) =
n(S)
= = .
6 2
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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

Example 15. Find the probability of throwing a sum Solution: There are total 52 students. The total
of 7 in a single throw of two dice. number of cases to select a student is 52. Therefore,
The required probability of selecting a boy is 52 5
.
Solution: The sample space is S =
For a girl, it will be 52 .
5
{(1, 1), (1, 2), . . . , (6, 6)} with n(S) = 36. Let
A be the event of throwing a sum of 7, then EXERCISE SET-III
with
A = {(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)} (Use of Combination)
n(A) = 6. Therefore,
Example 20. From a bag containing 5 white, 7 ed
P (A) =
n(A)
=
6 1
= . and 4 black balls a man draws 3 at random, find
n(S) 36 6 the probability of being all white.
Example 16. What is the chance that a leap year,
Solution: Total number of balls in the bag is 5 + 7 +
selected at random, will contain 53 Sundays?
4 = 16. Let A be the event of drawing 3 white balls
Solution: A leap year has 366 days. 366 days from the bag. Now, the total number of ways to draw
means 52 complete weeks (364 days) and 2 more 3 balls from the bag is 16 C3 = 3!(16−3)! 16!
= 560 and the
days. These 52 weeks contain 52 Sundays and 1 number of favourable cases, i.e., the total number
more sunday is to obtained from these two days. of drawing 3 white balls is 5 C3 = 10. Therefore, the
These two days form 7 possible combinations, probability is P (A) = 16CC3 = 560 .
5 10 1
= 56
i.e., the sample space in this case is S =
3

{(M, T ), (T, W ), (W, T h), (T h, F ), (F, Sa), (Sa, Su), Example 21. From a pack of 52 cards two cards are
(Su, M )}. Out of these 7 possible cases, only two drawn the probability of the events (i) both cards
are favourable, namely, A = {(Sa, Su), (Su, M )}. are of spade and (ii) one card is of spade and one
Thus, the required probability is card is of diamond.
2 Solution: The total number of ways in which 2
P (A) = , cards can be drawn from a pack of 52 cards is
7
Example 17. What is the chance that a non-leap
52
C2 = 1326. Thus, n(S) = 1326.
year should have 53 Sundays?
(i) Let the A be the event that both cards are of
Solution: A non-leap year (or a common year) spade. Then total number of ways favourable to A
is composed of 365 days. There are complete 52 are 13 C = 78. Therefore, the required probability
weeks plus 1 more day. As a result, there are 52 is
2

Sundays in a non-leap year. But one leftover day 13

C2 78 1
apart from those 52 weeks can be either a Monday, P (A) = 52
C2
=
1326
= .
78
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or
a Sunday. Thus, we have 7 possible cases with one (ii) If B is the event that one card is from spade and
favourable case. Thus the probability is 17 . one card is from diamond suite, the total number of
ways favourable to B are 13 C1 ×13 C1 = 13 × 13 =
Example 18. Find the chance that if a card is 169. Therefore, the probability of B is
selected at random from an ordinary pack, it is one
of the court cards.
13
C1 ×13 C1 169 13
P (A) = 52 C
= = .
1326 102
Solution: From a pack of 52 cards, one card can be 2

drawn in 52 ways. There are total 12 court cards. Example 22. From a lottery tickets marked
One court card can be drawn in 12 ways. Thus, the 1, 2, 3, . . . , 30 four tickets are to be drawn. Find the
probability is 12
52
. chance that the tickets marked 1 and 2 are always
among them.
Example 19. In a class of 52 students 5 are boys
and the rest are girls. Find the probability that a Solution: Total number of ways to draw four tickets
student selected will be a boy. from a lot of 30 tickets is 30 C4 . Since two tickets

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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

marked 1 and 2 are always to be taken, so we have (i) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = 0.48 + 0.42 = 0.90.
now to choose two more tickets from the remaining
28 tickets. Number of ways to select 2 tickets out (ii) P (A ∪ B) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.90 = 0.10.
of 28 tickets is 28 C2 . Thus, the required probability
Example 26. Find the chance of throwing an even
is 30 C .
28 2
2
= 145
C4 number or a number less than 5 with a toss of a
Example 23. From 12 tickets marked 1 to 12, one die.
ticket is to drawn at random. Find the chance that Solution: In this case, n(S) = 6. Let A be the event
the number on it is a multiple of 3. of getting an even number and B be the event of
Solution: Let S be the sample space. The total getting a number less than 5. Then
number of ways to draw one ticket from a set of A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {1, 2, 3, 4}
12 tickets is 12, i.e., n(S) = 12. Let A be the event
that number on the drawn ticket is a multiple of and
3. Then, A = {3, 6, 9, 12} with n(A) = 4. Thus, the A ∩ B = {2, 4}.
required probability is P (A) = 12 = 3 .
4 1 Now, probability of throwing an even number or a
number less than 5 is given by
Example 24. From a set of seven digits 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7 four are to be drawn at random. Find the P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
chance that sum of these four digits is less than 12. 3 4 2
= + −
6 6 6
Solution: Four numbers out of 7 digits can be chosen 5
in 7 C4 ways. Let A be the event that the sum of = .
6
chosen digits is less than 12. There are only two Example 27. Two cards are drawn at random from
cases favorable to the event A. These are (1, 2, 3, 4) a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that both
and (1, 2, 3, 5) as sum in these cases are 10 and 11 of these cards are of black colour or both are aces.
(< 12). Thus, the required probability is 7 C2 4 = 35 2
.
Solution: Total number of ways in which 2 cards
can be drawn is 52 C2 = 1326. Let A be the event
II. Addition Rule
that two cards are of black color, then
Definition 2. Addition Rule: Let A and B be two events 26
then probability of A ∪ B is given by C2 325
P (A) = 52 = .
C2 1326
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B).
Similarly, if B is the event that both the cards are
Further, if events are mutually exclusive then above result aces, then
reduces to
4
C2 6
P (B) = 52 = .
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B). C2 1326
This may be generalized for more than two mutually exclusive These two events are not mutually exclusive because
events as given below they have one ace (ace of black color) in common.
Therefore,
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C).
1 1
P (A ∩ B) = 52 = .
EXERCISE-IV C2 1326
Now, probability that both of these cards are of
Example 25. If A and B are two mutually exclusive
black colour or both are aces is given by
events with P (A) = .48 and P (B) = .42, then find
(i) P (A ∪ B) and (ii) P (A ∪ B). P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
325 6 1
Solution: Since events are mutually exclusive so = + −
1326 1326 1326
P (A ∩ B) = 0. Thus, we get 55
= .
221
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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

Example 28. In a city 20% peoples read English (iii) Let s denote the sum of the faces. Now, observe
newspaper, 40% read Hindi newspaper and 5% read that the probability of getting a sum greater than
both of them. How many peoples are there who do 8 is
not read both the news papers. P (s > 8) = P (s = 9) + P (s = 10) + P (s = 11)
Solution: Let A be the event that people read = +P (s = 12).
English newspaper and B be the event that people Similar to the calculations in part (i) of this ques-
read Hindi newspaper. Then tion, we calculate each of the probability on the
20 40 5 right hand side of the above equation and find that
P (A) = , P (B) = and P (A ∩ B) = .
100 100 100 P (s = 9) = 36 4
, P (s = 10) = 36
3
, P (s = 11) = 36
2

The probability that people do not read both the and P (s = 12) = 36 . Therefore,
1

newspaper is 4 3 2 1 5
P (s > 8) = + + + = .
P (Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) 36 36 36 36 18
= 1 − [P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)] Example 30. The probability that a horse A wins
a race is 14 and the probability that another horse
= 1 − P (A) − P (B) + P (A ∩ B)
wins the same race is 13 . What are the chances that
=1−
20
−
40
+
5 one of the horse will win the race.
100 100 100
45 Solution: Given that P (A) = 14 and P (B) = 13 . The
=
100
. two events are mutually exclusive. Therefore, the
Example 29. Two dice are thrown. Find the proba- probability that one of the horse will win the race
bility that (i) the sum of faces is 7 or 8, (ii) neither is
7 nor 8 and (iii) greater than 8. 1 1 7
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = + = .
4 3 12
Solution: The sample space has 36 elements, i.e., Example 31. The probability that the stock market
n(S) = 36. Let A be the event that the sum of will go up during the next week is 13 and the
faces is 7. Then probability that stock market will remain same
A = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)} during the next week is 14 . What is the probability
that stock market will go down during the next
with P (A) = 36 6
. Let B be the event that the sum week.
of faces is 8. Then
Solution: Let A be the event that stock market will
B = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)} go up and B be the event that stock market will
with P (B) = 36
5
. Note that A ∩ B = φ, i.e., the remain same. Note, both the events are mutually
events are mutually exclusive. exclusive because one and only thing can happen.
Either the marker will go up or else it will remain
(i) Now, the probability that the sum of faces is 7 the same. Both the things can not happen simulta-
or 8 is given by neously. Now, Ā ∩ B̄ is the event that stock market
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) will go down during the next week. The required
probability is
6 5
= + P (Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P (A ∪ B)
36 36
11 = 1 − [P (A) + P (B)]
= .
36 = 1 − P (A) − P (B)
(ii) The probability that the sum is neither 7 nor 8 1 1
is given by =1− −
3 4
11 25 5
P (Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) = 1 − = . = .
36 36 12
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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

Example 32. If P (A) = .25, P (B) = .50 and P (A ∩ Solution: (i) We have, from theorem of compound
B) = .14. What is the probability that neither of probability,
them occurs.
P (AB) = P (B) · P (A/B).
Solution: The probability that neither of them
occurs is given by This gives
1
P (Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) P (AB) 4 3
P (A/B) = = 1 = .
= 1 − [P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)] P (B) 3
4
= 1 − 0.25 − 0.50 + 0.14 (ii) Similarly, we have
= 0.39. P (AB) 1
1
4
P (B/A) = = 1 = .
P (A) 2
III. Conditional Probability and Multiplication 2
Theorem (iii) From addition rule, we have
Agreement: Form now on, for the sake of simplicity, 1 1 1 7
we shall write P (A ∩ B) as P (AB). P (A∪B) = P (A)+P (B)−P (AB) = + − = .
3 2 4 12
Definition 3. Conditional Probability: Probability of hap- Example 34. What is the chance of throwing a total
pening of an event A, when event B has already happened is of 11 with two dice if the digit on first die is 5?
called as conditional probability and is denoted by P (A/B).
Solution: Note that n(S) = 36. Let A be the event
Theorem III.1. Multiplicative Law: For two events A and
B that the total of 11 occurs on the two dice and B
be the event that 5 comes on the first die. Then
P (AB) = P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B/A) = P (B)P (A/B).
Further, if events are independent then
A = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}

P (AB) = P (A)P (B). and

Note 1: If there are n independent events with B = {(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6)}.
probabilities p1 , p2 ,…, pn , then
This gives
¨ The probability that all of them will occur is A ∩ B = {(5, 6)}.
given by
p = p1 · p 2 · p3 . . . pn . Therefore,
¨ The probability that all of them will fail to
1
P (AB) 36 1
P (A/B) = = = .
occur is given by P (B) 6
36
6
= (1 − p1 )(1 − p2 )(1 − p3 ) . . . (1 − pn ). Example 35. In a college 25% students in Mathe-
¨ The probability that at least one of them will matics, 15% student in Physics and 10% student in
occur is given by Mathematics and Physics both are failed. A student
is selected at random-
= 1 − (1 − p1 )(1 − p2 )(1 − p3 ) . . . (1 − pn ). (1) If he failed in Physics, then find the chance of his failure
in Mathematics.
Note 2: Let p be the probability that an event will (2) If he failed in Mathematics, then find the chance of his
occur in one trial, then the probability that it will failure in Physics.
(3) Find he chance of failure in mathematics or Physics.
occur in succession of r trials is
= p · p · . . . (r times) = pr . Solution: Let p be the event of failure in Physics, m
be the event of failure in mathematics. It is given
Example 33. If A and B are two events, where that
P (A) = 12 and P (B) = 13 and P (AB) = 14 , then 15 25 10
evaluate (i) P (A/B), (ii) P (B/A) and (iii) P (A∪B). P (p) = , P (m) = and P (p ∩ m) = .
100 100 100
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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

(i) The chance of failure in Mathematics when is the probability that at least one of them passes
student has already failed in Physics is examination.
P (p ∩ m) 10 2 Solution: Let A be the event that a boy will pass
P (m/p) = = = .
P (p) 15 3 the examination and B that a girl will pass the
(ii) The chance of failure in Physics when student examination. It is given that
has already failed in Mathematics is 3 2
P (A) = and P (B) = .
P (p ∩ m) 10 2 5 5
P (p/m) =
P (m)
=
25
= .
5 Note that the two events are independent, therefore
P (AB) = P (A)P (B). The probability that at least
(iii) The chance of failure in Mathematics or Physics one of them passes the examination is
is
P (m ∪ p) = P (m) + P (p) − P (m ∩ p) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (AB)
Thus, we get Thus, we get
25 15 10 30 3 3 2 3 2 19
P (m ∪ p) = + − = = . P (A ∪ B) = + − · = .
100 100 100 100 10 5 5 5 5 25
Example 36. The probability that a 50 years old Example 38. Urn A contains 2 white and 5 black
man will be alive for the next next 10 years is 0.83 balls and urn B contains 3 white and 6 black balls.
and the probability that a 45 years old woman will A ball is taken out at random from urn A and
be alive for the next 10 years is 0.87. What is the transferred to urn B. Then a ball is drawn at
probability that (i) both a man who is 50 and wife random from urn B. What is the probability that
who is 45 will be alive for the next 10 years and (ii) it is a black ball.
at least one of them will be alive for the next 10 Solution: Since one ball is transferred from urn A
years. to B. There can be done in two ways. The first is
Solution: Let A be the event that an old man will be to transfer the while ball and second is to transfer
alive for the next 10 years and B be the event that a black ball. Let A1 be the event that a while ball
an old woman will be alive for the next 10 years. It is transferred and A2 be the event that a black ball
is given that is transferred. Then
2 5
P (A) = 0.83 and P (B) = 0.87. P (A1 ) = and P (A2 ) = .
7 7
Note that these two events ar independent. Let E be the event of picking a white ball from bag
B after a ball is transformed from urn A to urn B.
(i) Now, the probability that both will be alive for Obviously
the next 10 years is given by
P (E) = P (E ∩ A1 ) + P (E ∩ A2 ).
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) · P (B) = (0.83)(0.87) = 0.72.
From, theorem of compound probability, we get
(ii) The probability that at least one of them will
be alive for the next 10 years is P (E) = P (A1 )P (E/A1 ) + P (A2 )P (E/A2 ).
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (AB) This gives us
Thus, P (E) =
2 4
·
5 3
+ · = .
23
7 10 7 10 70
P (A ∪ B) = (0.83) + (0.87) − 0.72 = 0.98.
Example 39. A question in Statistics was given to
Example 37. Probability that a boy will pass the three students to solve. Probabilities that they solve
examination is 35 and that for a girl it is 25 . What the question are 1/2, 1/3 and 1/4 respectively.

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PROBABILITY QUESTIONS MBA-106

If they all try to solve the question, what is the

probability that the question will be solved.
Let A, B and C be the events that the tree
students solve a question in Statistics. Note that
these events are independent events and it is given
that
1 1 1
P (A) = , P (A) = , and P (A) = .
2 3 4
The the probability that all they fail to solve the
question is
1 1 1 1
(1 − )(1 − )(1 − ) = .
2 3 4 4
Hence the probability that the question will be
solved is 1 − 14 = 34 .
Example 40.
Mohan speaks the truth in 60% cases and Sohan
in 75% cases. In what percentage of cases are they
likely to contradict each other in stating the same
fact.
Solution: Do it Yourself.

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