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Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution used to model the number of occurrences of rare events within a specific time or space interval, where occurrences are independent and can vary from zero to infinity. Examples include the number of cars arriving at a service station or typographical errors in a textbook. The probability of a Poisson random variable is calculated using its mean, with the variance equal to its mean, and specific examples illustrate how to determine probabilities for different intervals.

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9 views11 pages

Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution used to model the number of occurrences of rare events within a specific time or space interval, where occurrences are independent and can vary from zero to infinity. Examples include the number of cars arriving at a service station or typographical errors in a textbook. The probability of a Poisson random variable is calculated using its mean, with the variance equal to its mean, and specific examples illustrate how to determine probabilities for different intervals.

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ma2054738
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter Five _ Part 3

Discrete Distributions

1
3. Poisson Distribution
• The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution
which refers to the number of occurrences (number of times the
event occurs ) within a specific interval of time or region of space.

• It describes rare events.

• The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent


of the occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval.

• The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to


infinity (A Poisson experiment does not have a given number of
trials (n) as a binomial experiment does ).

• The expected number of occurrences must hold constant


throughout the experiment. 2
Examples of Poisson Random
Variable
• Number of cars arriving at a service station in 1
hour. (The interval of time is 1 hour)

• Number of telephone calls per minute in a call


center.

• The number of flaws in a bolt of cloth. (The


specific region is a bolt of cloth)

• Number of typing errors per 100 pages of a book.

• Number of times a laptop breaks down per year.


3
Poisson Random Variable
The Poisson random variable is the number
of occurrences that occur in a period of time or
an interval of space in a Poisson experiment.
occurrences

E.g.1: On average, 6 trucks arrive at a border


crossing every hour.
time period

E.g.2: The number of typographic errors in a


new textbook edition averages 1.5 per 100
pages. interval
occurrences 4
Poisson Probability
Distribution
The probability that a Poisson random variable takes a value
of x in a specific interval is given by:

where  is the long-run average number of occurrences in


an interval and e=2.71828 is the natural logarithm base.
The long-run average  describes the Poisson distribution,
whereas n and p describe the Binomial.
N.B.: The variance of the Poisson distribution is equal to its
mean.

5
Example
A statistics instructor has observed that the number of
typographical errors in new editions of textbooks varies
considerably from book to book. After some analysis he
concludes that the number of errors is Poisson distributed with a
mean of 1.5 per 100 pages. The instructor randomly selects 100
pages of a new book. What is the probability that there are no
typos?
Solution:
That is, what is P(X=0) given that µ = 1.5?

“There is about a 22% chance of finding zero errors”


6
Poisson Table
The Table is found in your text book Appendix

7
Example
Refer to the previous example, Suppose that
the instructor has just received a copy of a
new statistics book. He notices that there
are 400 pages.

a. What is the probability that there are no


typos?

b. What is the probability that there are five


or fewer typos?
8
Changing the interval…
Thus, knowing an error rate of 1.5 typos per 100
pages, we can determine a mean value for a 400
page book as:

=1.5(4) = 6 typos / 400 pages.

N.B.: Never adjust or change x in a problem

9
Solution

“there is a very small chance there are no typos”

10
Solution
b. For a 400 page book, what is the probability that
there are five or less typos?
P(X≤5) = P(0) + P(1) + … + P(5)

= 0.002479 + 0.01487 + 0.04462 + 0.08924 + 0.1339 +


0.1606
=0.4457
“there is about a 45% chance there are 5 or less typos”

11

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