CHAPTER TWO

Methods of Statistical Process Control and Capability Analysis

Statistical process control (SPC) - is a powerful collection of problem-solving tools.

• Useful in achieving process stability and improving capability through the reduction of
variability.

 The seven major tools of SPC often called “the magnificent seven,” are:

1. Histogram or stem-and-leaf plot

2. Check sheet

3. Pareto chart

4. Cause-and-effect diagram

5. Defect concentration diagram

6. Scatter diagram

7. Control chart

 Of the seven tools, the Shewhart control chart is probably the most technically
sophisticated. It was developed in the 1920s by Walter A. Shewhart.

Chance and Assignable Causes of Quality Variation

Chance Causes of Variation

 In any production process, a certain amount of natural variability will always exist.

 natural variability is often called a “stable system of chance causes”

 A process that is operating with only chance causes of variation present is said to be in
statistical control.
 Assignable Causes of Variation

 Other kind of variability may occasionally be present in the output of a process.

 This variability usually arises from three sources:

i. Improperly adjusted or controlled machines,

ii. operator errors, or

iii. Defective raw material.

 A process that is operating in the presence of assignable causes is said to be out of

control.

Control Chart

 Introduced by Walter A. Shewhart in 1924.

 It is an on-line process-monitoring technique widely used:

 to detect the occurrence of assignable causes of process shifts.

 to estimate the parameters of a production process.

 to provide information useful in improving the process.

 The eventual goal of SPC is the elimination of variability in the process.

 It may not be possible to completely eliminate variability, but the control chart is an
effective tool in reducing variability as much as possible.

Basic Principles of control chart

 The control chart is a graphical display of a quality characteristic measured or computed

from a sample versus the sample number or time.

 The chart contains

 A center line
  the upper control limit (UCL) and

 the lower control limit (LCL).

 If all the points lie within the control limits, the process is assumed to be in control, and
no action is necessary.

 If the points that plots outside of the control limits show that the process is out of
control, and investigation and corrective action are required to find and eliminate the
assignable cause or causes responsible for this behavior.

 Even if all the points plot inside the control limits, if they behave in a systematic or non-
random manner, then this could be an indication that the process is out of control.

 For example, if 18 of the last 20 points plotted above the center line but below the upper
control limit and only two of these points plotted below the center line but above the
lower control limit, we would be very suspicious that something was wrong.

 If the process is in control, all the plotted points should have an essentially random
pattern.

The three fundamental uses of a control chart:

1. Reduction of process variability

 2. Monitoring and surveillance of a process
3. Estimation of product or process parameters

Connection between control charts and hypothesis testing

 There is a close connection between control charts and hypothesis testing.

 In a sense, then, the control chart is a test of the hypothesis that the process is in a state of
statistical control.

 A point plotting within the control limits is equivalent to failing to reject the hypothesis
of statistical control,

 A point plotting outside the control limits is equivalent to rejecting the hypothesis of
statistical control.

 Note that: Choosing the control limits is equivalent to setting up the critical region for
testing the hypothesis.

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

 The type I error of the control chart;

 Is concluding the process is out of control, when it is really in control.

 The type II error of the control chart

 Is concluding the process is in control, when it is really out of control.

General model for a control chart

 Let be a sample statistic that measures some quality characteristic of interest, and
suppose that the mean of is and the standard deviation of is . Then,
 where is the “distance” of the control limits from the center line, expressed in standard
deviation units. A common choice is =3.

 This general theory of control charts was first proposed by Walter A. Shewhart, and
control charts developed according to these principles are often called Shewhart control
charts.

Important uses of the control chart

1. Most processes do not operate in a state of statistical control

2. Consequently, the routine and attentive use of control charts will identify assignable
causes.

 If these causes can be eliminated from the process, variability will be reduced and the
process will be improved.

3. The control chart only detects assignable causes.

 Management, operator, and engineering action will be necessary to eliminate the

assignable causes.
 Types of control charts

Control charts may be classified into two general types.

• Variables Control Charts

 These charts are applied to data that follow a continuous distribution.

• Attributes Control Charts

 These charts are applied to data that follow a discrete distribution.

Control charts for variables

 If the quality characteristic can be measured and expressed as a number on some

continuous scale of measurement, it is usually called a variable.

 Describe the quality characteristic with a measure of central tendency and a measure of
variability.

 Control charts for central tendency and variability are collectively called variables
control charts.

 The X-bar chart is the most widely used chart for controlling central tendency,
whereas charts based on either the sample range or the sample standard deviation are
used to control process variability.

Control charts for Attribute

 Many quality characteristics are not measured on a continuous scale.

 They are used for control of defect analysis.

 They are particularly useful for controlling raw material and finished product quality and
for analyzing quality comments in consumer letters.
 They are used when measurements are too difficult to take, when measurements do not
apply to the situation (such as visual checks for flaws), or when they are too costly to take
because of time lost.

Popularity of control charts

 There are at least five reasons for their popularity.

1) Control charts are a proven technique for improving productivity.

2) Control charts are effective in defect prevention.

3) Control charts prevent unnecessary process adjustment.

4) Control charts provide diagnostic information.

5) Control charts provide information about process capability.

Design of the control chart

 An important factor in control chart use is the design of the control chart.

 By this we mean the selection of the sample size, control limits, and frequency of
sampling.

Choice of Control Limits

 By moving the control limits farther from the center line, we decrease the risk of a type I
error

 that is, the risk of a point falling beyond the control limits, indicating an out-of-
control condition when no assignable cause is present.

 Widening the control limits will also increase the risk of a type II error

 that is, the risk of a point falling between the control limits when the process is
really out of control.
 If we move the control limits closer to the center line, the opposite effect is obtained:
The risk of type I error is increased, while the risk of type II error is decreased.

Warning Limits on Control Charts

• Warning limits (if used) are typically set at 2 standard deviations from the mean.

• If one or more points fall between the warning limits and the control limits, or close to
the warning limits the process may not be operating properly.

• Good thing: warning limits often increase the sensitivity of the control chart.

• Bad thing: warning limits could result in an increased risk of false alarms.

Sample Size and Sampling Frequency

• In designing a control chart, both the sample size to be selected and the frequency of
selection must be specified.

• Current practice tends to favor smaller (small sample size), more frequent samples.

Average Run Length

• The average run length (ARL) is a very important way of determining the appropriate
sample size and sampling frequency.

• Let p = probability that any point exceeds the control limits. Then,
1
ARL 
p

Illustration

• Consider a problem with control limits set at 3standard deviations from the
mean. The probability that a point plots beyond the control limits is again,
0.0027 (i.e., p = 0.0027). Then the average run length is
1
ARL   370
0.0027

What does the ARL tell us?

 • The average run length gives us the length of time (or number of samples) that should
plot in control before a point plots outside the control limits.

• For our problem, even if the process remains in control, an out-of-control signal will be
generated every 370 samples, on average.

Average Time to Signal

• Sometimes it is more appropriate to express the performance of the control chart in terms
of the average time to signal (ATS). Say that samples are taken at fixed intervals, h hours
apart.
ATS  ARL(h)

Example: Suppose we are using a sample size of n = 5 and that when the process goes out of
control the mean shifts to 1.725 microns. If the probability of mean falling between the control
limits is approximately 0.35, the out-of-control ARL (called ARL1) is

1
ARL   2.86
0.35
That is, the control chart will require 2.86 samples to detect the process shift, on the average, and
since the time interval between samples is h = 1 hour, the average time required to detect this
shift is
ATS  ARL(h)  2.86(1)  2.86hour

Rational Subgrouping

• The rational subgroup concept means that subgroups or samples should be selected so
that if assignable causes are present, chance for differences between subgroups will be
maximized, while chance for difference due to assignable causes within a subgroup will
be minimized.
Analysis of Patterns on Control Charts

• Patterns on control charts must be assessed. A control chart may indicate an out-of-
control condition when one or more points fall beyond the control limits or when the
plotted points exhibit some nonrandom pattern of behavior.

• Look for “runs” - this is a sequence of observations of the same type (all above the
center line, or all below the center line)

• Runs of say 8 observations or more could indicate an out-of-control situation.

– Run up: a series of observations are increasing

– Run down: a series of observations are decreasing

For example, consider the chart shown in Figure below

Figure: X-bar control chart with nonrandom pattern

• Although all 25 points fall within the control limits, the points do not indicate statistical
control because their pattern is very nonrandom in appearance.

• Specifically, we note that 19 of 25 points plot below the center line, while only 6 of them
plot above.
 • If the points truly are random, we should expect a more even distribution above and
below the center line.

• We also observe that following the fourth point, five points in a row increase in
magnitude.

Figure An X-bar chart with a cyclic pattern.

 The plotted sample averages exhibit a cyclic behavior, yet they all fall within the control
limits.
 Such a pattern may indicate a problem with the process such as operator fatigue, raw
material deliveries, heat or stress buildup, and so on.
 Although the process is not really out of control, the yield may be improved by
elimination or reduction of the sources of variability causing this cyclic behavior

Western Electric Handbook Rules

 The Western Electric Handbook (1956) suggests a set of decision rules for detecting
nonrandom patterns on control charts. Specifically, it suggests concluding that the
process is out of control if either

1) One point plots outside the 3-sigma control limits.

2) Two out of three consecutive points plot beyond the 2-sigma warning limits.

3) Four out of five consecutive points plot at a distance of 1-sigma or beyond from
the center line.
 4) Eight consecutive points plot on one side of the center line.

Figure below shows the Western Electric or zone rules, with the last four points showing a
violation of rule 3.

The rest of the Magnificent Seven

1. Histogram or stem-and-leaf plot

2. Check sheet

3. Pareto chart

4. Cause-and-effect diagram

5. Defect concentration diagram

6. Scatter diagram
Check Sheet – is useful in data collection activity.

• It is a common activity in the measure step of DMAIC.

Pareto Chart

 The Pareto chart is simply a frequency distribution (or histogram) of attribute data
arranged by category.

 Pareto charts are often used in both the measure and analyze steps of DMAIC.

 Note that the Pareto chart does not automatically identify the most important defects, but
only the most frequent.
Cause-and-Effect Diagram

 Once a defect, error, or problem has been identified and isolated for further study, we
must begin to analyze potential causes of this undesirable effect.

 In situations where causes are not obvious (sometimes they are), the cause-and-effect
diagram is a formal tool frequently useful in unlayering potential causes.

 It is very useful in the analyze and improve steps of DMAIC.

 It is an extremely powerful tool.

Defect Concentration Diagram

 A defect concentration diagram is a picture of the unit, showing all relevant views.

 Then the various types of defects are drawn on the picture, and

 the diagram is analyzed to determine whether the location of the defects on the unit
conveys any useful information about the potential causes of the defects.

 Very useful in the analyze step of DMAIC.

Scatter Diagram

 The scatter diagram is a useful plot for identifying a potential relationship between two
variables.

 Data are collected in pairs on the two variables.

 Very useful in the analyze step of DMAIC.

Control Charts for Variables

 Control charts for variables are a type of statistical quality control tool used to monitor
and control processes that involve continuous variables, such as Weight, speed, length,
strength, etc.

 Control of the process average or mean quality level is usually done with the control
chart for means, or the X-bar control chart.

 Process variability can be monitored with either

 a control chart for the range, called an R control chart.

 control chart for the standard deviation, called the s control chart,

Control Charts for and R

 x-bar charts are to control the central tendency of the process

 R-charts are to control the dispersion of the process

 Each chart measures the process differently.

 Both the process average and process variability must be in control for the process to be
in control.

 It is important to maintain control over both the process mean and process variability.
Example:

Setting Control Limits for the example

Control Chart Factors
Example:

R – Chart

 It is a type of variables control chart

 Shows sample ranges over time
 Ranges is difference between smallest and largest values in sample
 It monitors process variability
 Independent from process mean
Example: Setting Control Limits
Example: A hard-bake process is used in conjunction with photolithography in semiconductor
manufacturing. We wish to establish statistical control of the flow width of the resist in this
process using x-bar and R charts. Twenty-five samples, each of size five wafers, have been
taken when we think the process is in control. The interval of time between samples or
subgroups is one hour. The flow width measurement data (in microns) from these samples are
shown in blow.
 • When the 25 sample ranges are plotted on the R chart in Figure below there is no
indication of an out-of-control condition.

Fig. R charts for flow width in the hard-bake process

Fig. x-bar chart for flow width in the hard-bake process.

• When the preliminary sample averages are plotted on this chart, no indication of an out-
of-control condition is observed.

• Therefore, since both the x-bar and R charts exhibit control, we would conclude that the
process is in control at the stated levels.

Common patterns that appear on X-bar and R charts

 Some of the more common patterns that appear on X-bar and R charts are: Cyclic
patterns, mixture, shift in process level and trend.
Control Charts for x- bar and s
• x- bar and s are preferable to their more familiar counterparts, X-bar and R charts, when
either

1. The sample size n is moderately large-say, n > 10 or 12. (Recall that the range
method for estimating s loses statistical efficiency for moderate to large samples.)

2. The sample size n is variable.