Chapter 4
Basic Probability
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 1
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you will learn:
Basic probability concepts
About conditional probability
To use Bayes’ Theorem to revise probabilities
Various counting rules
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 2
Basic Probability Concepts
Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will
occur (always between 0 and 1)
Impossible Event – an event that has no chance of
occurring (probability = 0)
Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur
(probability = 1)
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 3
Assessing Probability
There are three approaches to assessing the
probability of an uncertain event:
1. a priori -- based on prior knowledge of the process
X number of ways in which the event occurs
probability of occurrence
T total number of possible outcomes
Assuming
all
outcomes 2. empirical probability
are equally
likely number of ways in which the event occurs
probability of occurrence
total number of possible outcomes
3. subjective probability
based on a combination of an individual’s past experience,
personal opinion, and analysis of a particular situation
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 4
Example of a priori probability
When randomly selecting a day from the year 2014 what
is the probability the day is in January?
X number of days in January
Probabilit y of Day In January
T total number of days in 2014
X 31 days in January 31
T 365 days in 2013 365
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 5
Example of empirical probability
Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics
from the population described in the following table:
Taking Stats Not Taking Total
Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439
number of males taking stats 84
Probability of male taking stats 0.191
total number of people 439
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 6
Subjective probability
Subjective probability may differ from person to person
A media development team assigns a 60% probability of
success to its new ad campaign.
The chief media officer of the company is less optimistic
and assigns a 40% of success to the same campaign
The assignment of a subjective probability is based on a
person’s experiences, opinions, and analysis of a particular
situation
Subjective probability is useful in situations when an
empirical or a priori probability cannot be computed
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 7
Events
Each possible outcome of a variable is an event.
Simple event
An event described by a single characteristic
e.g., A day in January from all days in 2014
Joint event
An event described by two or more characteristics
e.g. A day in January that is also a Wednesday from all days in 2014
Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
All events that are not part of event A
e.g., All days from 2014 that are not in January
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 8
Complement of event E (E’) is the set of all
outcomes that are not in event E.
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Find :
P(Planned to purchase)=
P(Did not plan to purchase)=
P(Actually Purchased)=
P(Did not actually purchased)=
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A = purchased a television with a faster refresh rate
A′ = purchased a television with a standard refresh rate
B = purchased a streaming media player
B′ = did not purchase a streaming media player
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 11
Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:
e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 12
Organizing & Visualizing Events
Venn Diagram For All Days In 2014
Sample Space (All Days Days That Are In January and Are
In 2014) Wednesdays
January Days
Wednesdays
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 13
Organizing & Visualizing Events
(continued)
Contingency Tables -- For All Days in 2014
Jan. Not Jan. Total
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 32 333 365
Decision Trees Total
5 Number
Sample Of
Space 27 Sample
All Days Space
In 2014 Outcomes
47
286
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 14
Definition: Simple Probability
Simple Probability refers to the probability of a
simple event.
ex. P(Jan.)
ex. P(Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total
P(Wed.) = 52 / 365
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 32 333 365
P(Jan.) = 32 / 365
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 15
Definition: Joint Probability
Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
ex. P(Jan. and Wed.)
ex. P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total
P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Wed. 5 47 52
= 286 / 365
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 32 333 365
P(Jan. and Wed.) = 5 / 365
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events
Events that cannot occur simultaneously
Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2014
A = day in January; B = day in February
Events A and B are mutually exclusive
P(A and B)=0
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 19
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Collectively exhaustive events
One of the events must occur
The set of events covers the entire sample space
Example: Randomly choose a day from 2014
A = Weekday; B = Weekend;
C = January; D = Spring;
Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive (but
not mutually exclusive – a weekday can be in January
or in Spring)
Events A and B are collectively exhaustive and also
mutually exclusive
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 20
Computing Joint and
Marginal Probabilities
The probability of a joint event, A and B:
number of outcomes satisfying A and B
P( A and B)
total number of elementary outcomes
Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:
P(A) P(A and B1 ) P(A and B 2 ) P(A and Bk )
Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 21
Joint Probability Example
P(Jan. and Wed.)
number of days that are in Jan. and are Wed. 5
total number of days in 2013 365
Jan. Not Jan. Total
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 32 333 365
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 22
Marginal Probability Example
P(Wed.)
5 48 53
P ( Jan. and Wed.) P(Not Jan. and Wed.)
365 365 365
Jan. Not Jan. Total
Wed. 5 48 53
Not Wed. 27 286 312
Total 31 334 365
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 23
Marginal & Joint Probabilities In A
Contingency Table
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)
Total P(B1) P(B2) 1
Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 24
Probability Summary So Far
Probability is the numerical measure of
the likelihood that an event will occur 1 Certain
The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ofP(A)
The sum ≤ 1 For any of
the probabilities event
all A 0.5
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A) P(B) P(C) 1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 25
General Addition Rule
General Addition Rule:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
For mutually exclusive events A and B
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 26
General Addition Rule Example
P(Jan. or Wed.) = P(Jan.) + P(Wed.) - P(Jan. and Wed.)
= 32/365 + 52/365 - 5/365 = 79/365
Don’t count
the five
Wednesdays
in January
Jan. Not Jan. Total twice!
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 32 333 365
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Computing Conditional Probabilities
A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B) probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred
P(A and B) The conditional
P(B | A) probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred
Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B
P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 32
Conditional Probability Example
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air
conditioning (AC) and 40% have a GPS. 20%
of the cars have both.
What is the probability that a car has a GPS, given
that it has AC ?
i.e., we want to find P(GPS | AC)
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 33
Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a GPS and
20% of the cars have both.
GPS No GPS Total
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0
P(GPS and AC) 0.2
P(GPS | AC) 0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 34
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Independence
Two events are independent if and only if:
P(A | B) P(A)
Events A and B are independent when the probability of
one event is not affected by the fact that the other event
has occurred
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 36
If one wants to estimate the cost of living of an individual,
then the factors such as
salary, age, marital status, etc. are independent variables,
while the cost of living of a person is highly dependent on
such factors.
Therefore, they are designated as the dependent variable.
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Multiplication Rules
Multiplication rule for two events A and B:
P(A and B) P(A | B) P(B)
Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B) P(A)
and the multiplication rule simplifies to
P(A and B) P(A) P(B)
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 40
Marginal Probability
Marginal probability for event A:
P(A) P(A | B1 ) P(B1 ) P(A | B 2 ) P(B 2 ) P(A | Bk ) P(Bk )
Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 41
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem is used to revise previously
calculated probabilities based on new information.
Developed by Thomas Bayes in the 18th Century.
It is an extension of conditional probability.
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Bayes’ Theorem
P(A | B i )P(Bi )
P(Bi | A)
P(A | B 1 )P(B1 ) P(A | B 2 )P(B2 ) P(A | B k )P(Bk )
where:
Bi = ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
A = new event that might impact P(Bi)
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 52
Bayes’ Theorem Example
A drilling company has estimated a 40% chance of
striking oil for their new well.
A detailed test has been scheduled for more
information. Historically, 60% of successful wells
have had detailed tests, and 20% of unsuccessful
wells have had detailed tests.
Given that this well has been scheduled for a
detailed test, what is the probability
that the well will be successful?
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 53
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)
Let S = successful well
U = unsuccessful well
P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities)
Define the detailed test event as D
Conditional probabilities:
P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2
Goal is to find P(S|D)
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 54
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)
Apply Bayes’ Theorem:
P(D | S)P(S)
P(S | D)
P(D | S)P(S) P(D | U)P(U)
(0.6)(0.4)
(0.6)(0.4) (0.2)(0.6)
0.24
0.667
0.24 0.12
So the revised probability of success, given that this well has
been scheduled for a detailed test, is 0.667
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 55
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)
Given the detailed test, the revised probability of a
successful well has risen to 0.667 from the original
estimate of 0.4
Prior Conditional Joint Revised
Event
Prob. Prob. Prob. Prob.
S (successful) 0.4 0.6 (0.4)(0.6) = 0.24 0.24/0.36 = 0.667
U (unsuccessful) 0.6 0.2 (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12 0.12/0.36 = 0.333
Sum = 0.36
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 56
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In a class, 30% are physics students, 25% are
mathematics students, and the rest are chemistry
students.
Suppose that 30% of the physics students are females,
40% of the mathematics students are females, and
70%of the chemistry students are females. Find the
probability that a randomly selected student is a female.
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Counting Rules Are Often Useful In
Computing Probabilities
In many cases, there are a large number of
possible outcomes.
Counting rules can be used in these cases to help
compute probabilities.
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 62
Counting Rules
Rules for counting the number of possible outcomes
Counting Rule 1:
If any one of k different mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events can occur on each of n
trials, the number of possible outcomes is equal to
Example kn
If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216 possible
outcomes
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 63
Counting Rules
(continued)
Counting Rule 2:
If there are k1 events on the first trial, k2 events on the
second trial, … and kn events on the nth trial, the number
of possible outcomes is
(k1)(k2)…(kn)
Example:
You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and see a movie.
There are 3 parks, 4 restaurants, and 6 movie choices. How many
different possible combinations are there?
Answer: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 64
Counting Rules
(continued)
Counting Rule 3:
The number of ways that n items can be arranged in order
is
n! = (n)(n – 1)…(1)
Example:
You have five books to put on a bookshelf. How many different
ways can these books be placed on the shelf?
Answer: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different possibilities
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 65
Counting Rules (continued)
Counting Rule 4:
Permutations: The number of ways of arranging X objects
selected from n objects in order is
n!
n Px
(n X)!
Example:
You have five books and are going to put three on a bookshelf. How
many different ways can the books be ordered on the bookshelf?
Answer: different possibilities
n! 5! 120
n Px 60
(n X)! (5 3)! 2
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 66
Counting Rules
(continued)
Counting Rule 5:
Combinations: The number of ways of selecting X objects
from n objects, irrespective of order, is
n!
n Cx
X!(n X)!
Example:
You have five books and are going to select three are to read.
How many different combinations are there, ignoring the order in
which they are selected?
n! 5! 120
Answer: n Cx 10 different possibilities
X!(n X)! 3! (5 3)! (6)(2)
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Permutation or Combination?
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 70
Chapter Summary
In this chapter we discussed:
Basic probability concepts
Sample spaces and events, contingency tables, simple probability, and
joint probability
Basic probability rules
General addition rule, addition rule for mutually exclusive events, rule
for collectively exhaustive events
Conditional probability
Statistical independence, marginal probability, decision trees, and the
multiplication rule
Bayes’ theorem
Five useful counting rules
Copyright © 2015, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 04, Slide 71
