Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

We are currently working on Vietnam’s nuclear power development and request your
insights on this important issue.
Q1. Why has Vietnam decided to restart its nuclear power program?
ANSWER: If Vietnam is to achieve the goals set by the thirteenth National Congress of
the Vietnam Communist Party of becoming a developing country with a modern
industry with a high-middle income level by 2030 and to become a developed country
with a high income by 2045 it will need to achieve double-digit economic growth. This
means that Vietnam will have to address growing demands for more energy.
At the same time, Vietnam has committed itself to reducing carbon emissions to net
zero which means decreasing its dependency on fossil fuels (oil and liquified natural
gas). Solar, wind and hydroelectric power are insufficient to meet Vietnam’s growing
demands for electricity. Nuclear power is the most reliable source of energy that can
achieve the twin objectives of increasing the supply of electricity and lowering
dependence on fossil fuels.
The National Assembly’s decision to approve restarting the Ninh Thuan nuclear energy
project was a response to this conundrum.
Q2. In your assessment, who are the most likely or suitable international
partners/investors for Vietnam to implement nuclear power projects in Ninh Thuan
province, and why?
ANSWER: There are five likely international partners: Russia, Japan, South Korea,
France, and China. China operates 58 nuclear power reactors, France operates 56,
Russia operates 42, Japan operates 33, and South Korea operates 26.
Russia holds the world’s largest reserves of uranium and has the biggest domestic
nuclear processing industry. It is estimated that Russia controls forty-four percent of
the world’s uranium enrichment capacity. In 2022, Russia accounted for half of all
nuclear commercial agreements related to construction, reactor fuel supply, waste
management and decommissioning of outdated reactors.
Despite the imposition of Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
Russia is currently involved in over a third of the world’s construction of new nuclear
reactors including in Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, and NATO members
Slovakia and Turkey.
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Russia is the obvious first choice for Vietnam because of its long-standing involvement
in assisting Vietnam develop nuclear power to meet its pressing future energy needs.
Russia was chosen as Vietnam’s first partner to build a nuclear reactor in 2006. Also,
Russia is able to deliver comprehensive nuclear energy packages that include
construction, training, safety support, compliance with non-proliferation regimes, and
generous financial assistance.
Japan is likely the second top contender because of its expertise and experience as the
contractor for Vietnam’s second nuclear power plant in Ninh Thuan. For example, in
November 2010, Viet Nam reached agreement with Japan’s Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry for the Japan Atomic Power Company and Japan International
Nuclear Energy Development Co. Ltd (JINED) to join with Electricity Viet Nam to work
on the Ninh Thuan II project.
In 2011, the Vietnamese and Japanese partners selected a site; conducted a feasibility
study for the design, construction and operation of the nuclear power plant; support
for local industry; staff education and training; and financial support. JINED agreed to
train one thousand Vietnamese staff. In 2015, Japan’s Mitsubishi was licensed to
acquire modern nuclear technology from Westinghouse, a U.S. company and
Westinghouse agreed to train Vietnamese staff.
In 2011, the presidents of Vietnam and South Korea agreed on a joint plan to construct
nuclear power plants. In March 2012, Vietnam and South Korea signed a nuclear
cooperation agreement and a year later began work on a preliminary feasibility study.
South Korea is currently involved in constructing the United Arab Emirate’s first nuclear
power plant under a $20 billion contract.
France has a proven record of constructing and safe management of domestic nuclear
power plants. In 2022, France exported nuclear reactors to Japan, China, United
Kingdom, South Korea, and the Czech Republic. In 2024, France and Vietnam became
comprehensive strategic partners and agreed to foster collaboration in training,
research and the application of civil nuclear technology.
China is currently second to Russia in global commercial sales of nuclear reactors.
China also has developed a very modern third generation reactor (Hualong One) and
floating nuclear power plants. China is currently building a Hualong One power plant
in Pakistan.
The United States was not listed as a potential supplier of nuclear reactors to Vietnam
because it currently lacks the requisite technical and commercial experience. The
United States stopped construction of nuclear power plants after the Three Mile Island
accident in 1979. The U.S. nuclear power industry is decades old and many nuclear
power plants will have to be decommissioned over the next decade and a half as their
lifecycles expire.
Under the Biden Administration, government officials began working with the Export-
Import Bank, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and modular
reactor developers General Atomics and Bechtel to promote foreign sales in Bulgaria,
Ghana, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and the Philippines.
Q3. What lessons can Vietnam draw from other countries in the region that are
developing or have developed nuclear energy programs?
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ANSWER: Only four countries in the Indo-Pacific operate nuclear power plants – Japan,
South Korea, China and India. Vietnam can draw lessons from the experience of these
countries in six areas: how they set up the framework for international cooperation;
how they designed a governance strategy; how they conducted project management;
how they assessed risks and risk mitigation; how they organized finance; and what
provisions were made for waste disposal.
Q4. What challenges does Vietnam face in restarting its nuclear power programme?
ANSWER: The first challenge is to negotiate appropriate financial support. The second
challenge is to update previous feasibility studies for the design, construction and
operation of a nuclear power plant given the rapid development of nuclear energy
technology. The third major challenge is to arrange appropriate staff education and
training to ensure a continuous stream of qualified personnel over the life of the
nuclear power plant, typically 30 to 40 years. The fourth challenge is how to integrate
support from local industry with the operations of the nuclear power plants.
Q5. What key considerations should Vietnam focus on regarding safety and
radioactive waste disposal?
ANSWER: In order to ensure safety Vietnam must continually train enough specialist
nuclear technology engineers and technicians to safely manage all aspects of nuclear
reactors and nuclear technology 24/7 as Vietnam commences the construction and
operation of its nuclear power plants.
Vietnam is not an earthquake prone country. However, Vietnam should prepare for a
likely unexpected natural disaster of mammoth proportions such as the earthquake
that generated a fifteen-metre tsunami that struck Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi reactors
disabling the power and cooling systems and causing a nuclear accident in 2011.
Vietnam should ensure that spent nuclear rods are returned to the country of origin
for safe disposal. This is normal practice for contracts with Russia when it exports
enriched uranium to non-nuclear weapons states. Under Vietnam’s original
agreement with Russia for a nuclear reactor at Ninh Thuan, Russia undertook to take
back used nuclear fuel.
Vietnam should not acquire highly enriched uranium which can be converted for
military purposes.
Q6. What is the future of nuclear power development in Vietnam? What would be
your key advice for Vietnamese policymakers?
ANSWER: Vietnam must plan how to operate and manage its nuclear energy sector
for three to four decades into the future. Vietnam must also consider what the
optimum number of nuclear power plants its needs to sustain its development in the
decades ahead. In particular, Vietnam should pay close attention to the development
of modular nuclear reactors.
Vietnam should plan to shift training from abroad to institutions in Vietnam to ensure
a steady stream of qualified scientists and engineers. But Vietnam should also ensure
that its scientists and technicians acquire experience overseas.
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Vietnam should also study how individual countries either plan to modernize their
nuclear power plants or decommission the plants at the of their life, typically 30-40
years.
The trajectory of China’s nuclear power sector is expected to grow and dominate the
region in coming decades. This opens the opportunity for Vietnam to leverage its
comprehensive strategic partnership with China to learn from China’s experience and
for Vietnamese scientists and technicians to be trained in China. At the same time,
Vietnam should leverage its comprehensive strategic partnerships with Japan and
South Korea to keep up with development in nuclear technology and safety.
The nuclear power energy sector is likely to expand in Southeast Asia as Vietnam
proceeds with its Ninh Thuan project. Indonesia and Thailand are likely to commence
building nuclear power plants.
Vietnam’s new comprehensive strategic partnerships with Indonesia and Thailand also
provide an opportunity to collaborate on their experiences in developing and
managing the nuclear energy sector. Together, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand could
assist ASEAN in developing best standards for the development and safety of nuclear
energy.
Vietnam’s nuclear power sector must be strictly regulated by an appropriate
government agency or agencies set up for this purpose such as the Vietnam Atomic
Energy Institute. The conduct of the Institute and other related agencies must be
closely monitored by the government and the National Assembly. Finally, Vietnam
must keep up with the development of the nuclear energy technology and safety
globally.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam’s Nuclear Power Development,”

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.